WH2020 – With the counts continuing in several key states Biden is not yet claiming victory – politi

The only problem with watching CNN. Having to watch the same irritating Quest Means Business advert. Who is that utter tool?

JACK_W said:

MrEd said:

JACK_W said:

Good afternoon to the PB lunchtime casuals

Looks like I may add Georgia to my list of hits. I think Biden nabs it by 10K give or take.

Depending on when PA starts rolling in, estimates around 3-5 GMT, we will have Biden called as President Elect by afternoon tea. Very civilised .... More tea Vicar ?

Not too early @JackW - did you see the comments by their SoS?

No. I've been supervising the Auchentennach Fine Pies Takeaway Emporium.

What is the updated info ?

Trump's lead is down to 18,000, 25,000 votes left to be counted.

Beibheirli_C said:

4,838,400 seconds, or
80,640 minutes, or
1344 hours, or
56 days, or
8 weeks left to sort out all those trade deals.

Maybe if we ignore the problem, it will go away....

Just one big one. A lot of the rest are already rolled over.

Malmesbury said:

TimT said:

turbotubbs said:

TimT said:

CarlottaVance said:

Interesting communication from TSOG:

https://twitter.com/Govgg/status/1324320891921195010?s=20

Very good. I have already copy and pasted it (with the attribution) into my slides on infection control.

Yep - its a well known model for all kinds of things. We use it for lab safety.

What type of lab do you work in? Research?

It's an idea that is so standard across so many fields, that it is easy to forget that everyone doesn't know of the idea.

Swiss Cheese model in terms of "events" in engineering or various forms etc...

Again, that I know. James Reason and all that. Also, while very useful properly applied, a dangerous safety model if the only one applied, as amply demonstrated by Perrow (Normal Accident Theory) and Rasmussen (Resilience Engineering), and more recently Weick and Sutcliffe (high reliability organization).

My point was not about the Swiss Cheese model, but about the quality of its application to public health communication specific to COVID infection control

Fysics_Teacher said:

rottenborough said:

Penn Dem Senator says no question they have won Penn.

If he wins Pennsylvania that's enough isn't it?

Yes, PA or any 2 from AZ,NV,GA,NC.

What are the rules with military votes in NC ? - it has several significant military bases.

RochdalePioneers said:

The only problem with watching CNN. Having to watch the same irritating Quest Means Business advert. Who is that utter tool?

There aren’t any adverts on their live feed, it just goes quiet if you are watching from abroad. Which is much better than having to listen to all the crap being touted on Fox.

Bound to be a recount in GA imo

Hopefully its Trump needing it

IanB2 said:

RochdalePioneers said:

The only problem with watching CNN. Having to watch the same irritating Quest Means Business advert. Who is that utter tool?

There aren’t any adverts on their live feed, it just goes quiet if you are watching from abroad. Which is much better than having to listen to all the crap being touted on Fox.

That Quest bloke seems like someone they rejected from UK networks because he’d be too annoying. Which is quite an achievement when we have Piers Morgan , Robert Peston and Kay Burley.

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1324336566861504513

I wonder if any state has ever had a margin of victory less than the number of EC votes it has...

The big headache here is we don’t know if the estimates are accurate or if the reporting deviates from the count. Those 200k ballots from PA last night might be counted but not be reported yet. It’s bloody hard to tell because of the slapdash way that the US does their elections.

RochdalePioneers said:

The only problem with watching CNN. Having to watch the same irritating Quest Means Business advert. Who is that utter tool?

He's Northern England's contribution to CNN so I have a soft spot for his eccentric attitude.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Quest

MrEd said:

bigjohnowls said:

MrEd said:

TimT said:

MrEd said:

MrEd said:

numbertwelve said:

MrEd said:

numbertwelve said:

MrEd said:

paulyork64 said:

MrEd said:

Anabobazina said:

MrEd said:

Anabobazina said:

paulyork64 said:

Anabobazina said:

numbertwelve said:

Trump files lawsuit in Georgia

Suggests he knows they have lost the state.

ABC.net.au saying gap is 18k but only 10k left to count. Not sure their source but biden cant win if that's true.

Think you are out by an order of magnitude there.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-georgia.html

Do you have the link @paulyork64 for ABC? Agree it looks odd.

The New York Times site gives you the live numbers. 4.9million in with 96% counted.

interested in why ABC saying what it is

couldnt post link on my phone. this from wsb-tv. think an atlanta media company. quoting 25k votes left.

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/politics/live-updates-eyes-georgia-state-works-finish-counting-outstanding-ballots/K2PXD7SI3VCDPGNUPMRAV7K5UU/

6:31 a.m.

Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger spoke exclusively with Channel 2 Action News This Morning. There are now under 25,000 ballots left to be counted and Raffensperger says the state should be done by noon today.

6:20 a.m.

The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.

Thanaks Paul, looks like Trump has held on in GA

Too early to say that IMHO. Only thing we can say is as predicted it is going to be incredibly tight.

If it is under 25K votes and 18.5K lead, I don't see how that is overcome.

Plus the SoS is R so I think he is rushing this through

As far as I’m aware, we are not sure yet if the 25k figure is uncounted and unreported (ie all the rest of the ballots have been reported) or whether there are still some other ballots to report.

From the news report:

"The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden."

That was in the same interview as the <25K votes comments</p>

Something is not being reported correctly, because 4% of GA's vote is substantially more than 25k

The 25K and the 18.5K are both from the SoS office so they will be the official numbers presumably.

The SoS gave an interview to a TV station with the 25K number and said they would be done by noon.

Given he is Republican, I think if Trump was behind, they would be scrambling around for any loose votes they could find so, given that and the vote split, that's why I think it will be called for Trump.

His interview on CNN said 40k I thought and then absentee and Military ballots

He did say they would be done by noon on the Mail ins but that Absentees would follow and Military next Tuesday

Here's the link:

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/politics/live-updates-eyes-georgia-state-works-finish-counting-outstanding-ballots/K2PXD7SI3VCDPGNUPMRAV7K5UU/

Scroll down to the comments at 6;20am / 6:31am their time

Thats important info giving the betting

Thanks

Do you think the 25k includes absentee but not Military?

In the last week, Starmer and Dodds have both been entirely vindicated. Politically, though, it is unlikely to matter.

MrEd said:

bigjohnowls said:

Bound to be a recount in GA imo

Hopefully its Trump needing it

Is there an automatic recount in GA?

0.5%

Margin is currently 0.4% and shrinking so seems inevitable.

not_on_fire said:

Mal557 said:

This refers to the 25K in Georgia and why there may,,,,or may not be double that number , so take your pick, as clearly no one seems to know
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324334248229326849

Highly doubt we are getting a result in GA today

I would agree, NV will be in today and am confident Bidens won there, but ofc Biden still needs one of AZ, GA or PA to get home

Furlough scheme extended to the end of March next year. Certainly until January this is at the 80% level , to be reviewed then.
The financial commitment made in this statement alone probably exceeds the commitments made in any budget in modern times.

SouthamObserver said:

In the last week, Starmer and Dodds have both been entirely vindicated. Politically, though, it is unlikely to matter.

Captain Hindsight spotted yet another iceberg that BoZo and chums slammed right into...

GA 2.92 Trump 1.51 Biden

If 25k is the final total 2.92 decent value

How many Military

Would be fun if Trump hundreds ahead and Military swings it.

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1324336566861504513

And yet numbers are falling, the tiers were working and a ton of cold water has been poured over Whitty and Valiance's 4,000 deaths figure and their general use (abuse?) of stats.

Despite the reality, this administration ploughs on with Hancock's blinkers firmly fixed on and thousands at risk of early death from non-covid and mental health disasters.

I can't explain how the BBC are annoying me, still only have Bidan on 243. I don't think they have called MI for Biden.

MrEd said:

bigjohnowls said:

MrEd said:

bigjohnowls said:

MrEd said:

TimT said:

MrEd said:

MrEd said:

numbertwelve said:

MrEd said:

numbertwelve said:

MrEd said:

paulyork64 said:

MrEd said:

Anabobazina said:

MrEd said:

Anabobazina said:

paulyork64 said:

Anabobazina said:

numbertwelve said:

Trump files lawsuit in Georgia

Suggests he knows they have lost the state.

ABC.net.au saying gap is 18k but only 10k left to count. Not sure their source but biden cant win if that's true.

Think you are out by an order of magnitude there.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-georgia.html

Do you have the link @paulyork64 for ABC? Agree it looks odd.

The New York Times site gives you the live numbers. 4.9million in with 96% counted.

interested in why ABC saying what it is

couldnt post link on my phone. this from wsb-tv. think an atlanta media company. quoting 25k votes left.

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/politics/live-updates-eyes-georgia-state-works-finish-counting-outstanding-ballots/K2PXD7SI3VCDPGNUPMRAV7K5UU/

6:31 a.m.

Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger spoke exclusively with Channel 2 Action News This Morning. There are now under 25,000 ballots left to be counted and Raffensperger says the state should be done by noon today.

6:20 a.m.

The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.

Thanaks Paul, looks like Trump has held on in GA

Too early to say that IMHO. Only thing we can say is as predicted it is going to be incredibly tight.

If it is under 25K votes and 18.5K lead, I don't see how that is overcome.

Plus the SoS is R so I think he is rushing this through

As far as I’m aware, we are not sure yet if the 25k figure is uncounted and unreported (ie all the rest of the ballots have been reported) or whether there are still some other ballots to report.

From the news report:

"The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden."

That was in the same interview as the <25K votes comments</p>

Something is not being reported correctly, because 4% of GA's vote is substantially more than 25k

The 25K and the 18.5K are both from the SoS office so they will be the official numbers presumably.

The SoS gave an interview to a TV station with the 25K number and said they would be done by noon.

Given he is Republican, I think if Trump was behind, they would be scrambling around for any loose votes they could find so, given that and the vote split, that's why I think it will be called for Trump.

His interview on CNN said 40k I thought and then absentee and Military ballots

He did say they would be done by noon on the Mail ins but that Absentees would follow and Military next Tuesday

Here's the link:

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/politics/live-updates-eyes-georgia-state-works-finish-counting-outstanding-ballots/K2PXD7SI3VCDPGNUPMRAV7K5UU/

Scroll down to the comments at 6;20am / 6:31am their time

Thats important info giving the betting

Thanks

Do you think the 25k includes absentee but not Military?

Have to admit I don't know. As mentioned, I don't think he would do a TV interview if the Rs didn't think they can say they have held GA - he would be trying to find extra votes in the outlying counties.

(You're right, it is important betting info but I can't get onto Betfair )

“He would be trying to find extra votes”. The idea of someone with election responsibility thinking like that is so alien.

Time_to_Leave said:

OnboardG1 said:

The big headache here is we don’t know if the estimates are accurate or if the reporting deviates from the count. Those 200k ballots from PA last night might be counted but not be reported yet. It’s bloody hard to tell because of the slapdash way that the US does their elections.

The footage suggests they aren’t even in sports halls.. Amateurs.

In a race this close and with so much hanging on it, even allowing for due process, I find it incredible that no one seems to know if 200.000 votes that have been counted, have or have not been declared, as potentially it could affect the outcome this late on. Surely someone has what should be a simple answer . This 200,000 counted update happened hours ago , its been talked about for ages, Surely someone can confirm declared or not declared.

bigjohnowls said:

GA 2.92 Trump 1.51 Biden

If 25k is the final total 2.92 decent value

How many Military

Would be fun if Trump hundreds ahead and Military swings it.

I had assumed the military vote is by default heavy Republican. Is that not right?

Beibheirli_C said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/RightWingWatch/status/1324175651515949056

What a raving nutter....

It’s been given the meme treatment:

https://twitter.com/soapmoine/status/1324286193106898944?s=21

MrEd said:

bigjohnowls said:

MrEd said:

bigjohnowls said:

MrEd said:

TimT said:

MrEd said:

MrEd said:

numbertwelve said:

MrEd said:

numbertwelve said:

MrEd said:

paulyork64 said:

MrEd said:

Anabobazina said:

MrEd said:

Anabobazina said:

paulyork64 said:

Anabobazina said:

numbertwelve said:

Trump files lawsuit in Georgia

Suggests he knows they have lost the state.

ABC.net.au saying gap is 18k but only 10k left to count. Not sure their source but biden cant win if that's true.

Think you are out by an order of magnitude there.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-georgia.html

Do you have the link @paulyork64 for ABC? Agree it looks odd.

The New York Times site gives you the live numbers. 4.9million in with 96% counted.

interested in why ABC saying what it is

couldnt post link on my phone. this from wsb-tv. think an atlanta media company. quoting 25k votes left.

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/politics/live-updates-eyes-georgia-state-works-finish-counting-outstanding-ballots/K2PXD7SI3VCDPGNUPMRAV7K5UU/

6:31 a.m.

Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger spoke exclusively with Channel 2 Action News This Morning. There are now under 25,000 ballots left to be counted and Raffensperger says the state should be done by noon today.

6:20 a.m.

The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.

Thanaks Paul, looks like Trump has held on in GA

Too early to say that IMHO. Only thing we can say is as predicted it is going to be incredibly tight.

If it is under 25K votes and 18.5K lead, I don't see how that is overcome.

Plus the SoS is R so I think he is rushing this through

As far as I’m aware, we are not sure yet if the 25k figure is uncounted and unreported (ie all the rest of the ballots have been reported) or whether there are still some other ballots to report.

From the news report:

"The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden."

That was in the same interview as the <25K votes comments</p>

Something is not being reported correctly, because 4% of GA's vote is substantially more than 25k

The 25K and the 18.5K are both from the SoS office so they will be the official numbers presumably.

The SoS gave an interview to a TV station with the 25K number and said they would be done by noon.

Given he is Republican, I think if Trump was behind, they would be scrambling around for any loose votes they could find so, given that and the vote split, that's why I think it will be called for Trump.

His interview on CNN said 40k I thought and then absentee and Military ballots

He did say they would be done by noon on the Mail ins but that Absentees would follow and Military next Tuesday

Here's the link:

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/politics/live-updates-eyes-georgia-state-works-finish-counting-outstanding-ballots/K2PXD7SI3VCDPGNUPMRAV7K5UU/

Scroll down to the comments at 6;20am / 6:31am their time

Thats important info giving the betting

Thanks

Do you think the 25k includes absentee but not Military?

Have to admit I don't know. As mentioned, I don't think he would do a TV interview if the Rs didn't think they can say they have held GA - he would be trying to find extra votes in the outlying counties.

(You're right, it is important betting info but I can't get onto Betfair )

By definition, the £25k must exclude votes that haven't yet been verified and tabulated, no? Let alone those not yet received.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1324326431640461317

Why would we need to do this, only sunny uplands await us?

I don't think anyone sane says that.

Of course there might be disruption as we transition from one set of arrangements to another.

DavidL said:

Furlough scheme extended to the end of March next year. Certainly until January this is at the 80% level , to be reviewed then.
The financial commitment made in this statement alone probably exceeds the commitments made in any budget in modern times.

Spaffing money up the wall.

You have to wonder what is the point of elections?

RochdalePioneers said:

Tonight's Number 10 Press Conference defence of the latest u-turn can't be as funny as United's defence against Demba Ba last night

https://twitter.com/btsportfootball/status/1324052026595123200

Surely offside?

Mexicanpete said:

I can't explain how the BBC are annoying me, still only have Bidan on 243. I don't think they have called MI for Biden.

Even worse than that, they've called MI but they've not called WI despite the counting in WI being finished.

Cicero said:

If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?

Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.

GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!

IanB2 said:

RochdalePioneers said:

The only problem with watching CNN. Having to watch the same irritating Quest Means Business advert. Who is that utter tool?

There aren’t any adverts on their live feed, it just goes quiet if you are watching from abroad. Which is much better than having to listen to all the crap being touted on Fox.

I'm on their web feed. When America goes to an ad break we get trailers for International shows. The same trailers. Over and over and over again.

bigjohnowls said:

MrEd said:

TimT said:

MrEd said:

MrEd said:

numbertwelve said:

MrEd said:

numbertwelve said:

MrEd said:

paulyork64 said:

MrEd said:

Anabobazina said:

MrEd said:

Anabobazina said:

paulyork64 said:

Anabobazina said:

numbertwelve said:

Trump files lawsuit in Georgia

Suggests he knows they have lost the state.

ABC.net.au saying gap is 18k but only 10k left to count. Not sure their source but biden cant win if that's true.

Think you are out by an order of magnitude there.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-georgia.html

Do you have the link @paulyork64 for ABC? Agree it looks odd.

The New York Times site gives you the live numbers. 4.9million in with 96% counted.

interested in why ABC saying what it is

couldnt post link on my phone. this from wsb-tv. think an atlanta media company. quoting 25k votes left.

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/politics/live-updates-eyes-georgia-state-works-finish-counting-outstanding-ballots/K2PXD7SI3VCDPGNUPMRAV7K5UU/

6:31 a.m.

Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger spoke exclusively with Channel 2 Action News This Morning. There are now under 25,000 ballots left to be counted and Raffensperger says the state should be done by noon today.

6:20 a.m.

The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.

Thanaks Paul, looks like Trump has held on in GA

Too early to say that IMHO. Only thing we can say is as predicted it is going to be incredibly tight.

If it is under 25K votes and 18.5K lead, I don't see how that is overcome.

Plus the SoS is R so I think he is rushing this through

As far as I’m aware, we are not sure yet if the 25k figure is uncounted and unreported (ie all the rest of the ballots have been reported) or whether there are still some other ballots to report.

From the news report:

"The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden."

That was in the same interview as the <25K votes comments</p>

Something is not being reported correctly, because 4% of GA's vote is substantially more than 25k

The 25K and the 18.5K are both from the SoS office so they will be the official numbers presumably.

The SoS gave an interview to a TV station with the 25K number and said they would be done by noon.

Given he is Republican, I think if Trump was behind, they would be scrambling around for any loose votes they could find so, given that and the vote split, that's why I think it will be called for Trump.

His interview on CNN said 40k I thought and then absentee and Military ballots

He did say they would be done by noon on the Mail ins but that Absentees would follow and Military next Tuesday

"Those who cast the votes count for nothing. Those who count the votes count for everything" according to Joe the Georgian.

Fishing said:

Selebian said:

Philip_Thompson said:

January sucks as a month and everyone's broke and miserable in January.

If you're going to have lockdown for a month then I would vote for that to be January.

My birthday is in January and pre-children we always had a long weekend away, somewhere cosy in the middle of nowhere with a fire, a good single malt, walking in all weathers, more than once finding our way back by torch-light/map/compass, with the help of a hip-flask, having underestimated how long a walk would take, including one blizzard which completely obliterated the path in the Yorkshire Moors.

So, don't diss January!

January is by far the worst month of the year. Suicides and relationship breakups are most numerous for a reason. Cold and still dark. The cure is to go somewhere where it's better and luckily I'm going to be on holiday in Mexico and the US for it.

Do you have a link for data on suicides by month? The Samaritans report I found had nothing by time of year and the only ONS information I can find is by quarter, and doesn't show a clear pattern - different quarters have higher rates in different years.

There's a reference on Wikipedia to research in the US showing more suicide in spring and early summer - but it's quite old.

Philip_Thompson said:

Mexicanpete said:

I can't explain how the BBC are annoying me, still only have Bidan on 243. I don't think they have called MI for Biden.

Even worse than that, they've called MI but they've not called WI despite the counting in WI being finished.

Have the BBC called CA for Biden yet? j/k but they are hopeless in this election.

IanB2 said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Tonight's Number 10 Press Conference defence of the latest u-turn can't be as funny as United's defence against Demba Ba last night

https://twitter.com/btsportfootball/status/1324052026595123200

Surely offside?

In rugby, yes. But in Association Football I believe the offside rule is a that you can't be offside in your own half...

numbertwelve said:

Cicero said:

If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?

Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.

GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!

Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?

IanB2 said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Tonight's Number 10 Press Conference defence of the latest u-turn can't be as funny as United's defence against Demba Ba last night

https://twitter.com/btsportfootball/status/1324052026595123200

Surely offside?

In own half.

Chris said:

bigjohnowls said:

GA 2.92 Trump 1.51 Biden

If 25k is the final total 2.92 decent value

How many Military

Would be fun if Trump hundreds ahead and Military swings it.

The NYT says 200,000+ in this article updated 15 minutes ago:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/us/georgia-presidential-election.html

Wow

williamglenn said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Philip_Thompson said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1324326431640461317

Why would we need to do this, only sunny uplands await us?

I don't think anyone sane says that.

Of course there might be disruption as we transition from one set of arrangements to another.

There will be no downside to Brexit, only a considerable upside.

https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/695208361625796608

Was the door knocked in?

Very nice

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1324339303028326400

bigjohnowls said:

Chris said:

bigjohnowls said:

GA 2.92 Trump 1.51 Biden

If 25k is the final total 2.92 decent value

How many Military

Would be fun if Trump hundreds ahead and Military swings it.

The NYT says 200,000+ in this article updated 15 minutes ago:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/us/georgia-presidential-election.html

Wow

200k is nationwide. For GA alone it was about 5 or 6k last election.

TOPPING said:

SouthamObserver said:

In the last week, Starmer and Dodds have both been entirely vindicated. Politically, though, it is unlikely to matter.

It doesn't matter at all anywhere. They might have said the right thing weeks ago and done the right thing in the HoC but all anyone will care about is that the govt won the votes and Lab supported them.

That is not a good look for an Opposition.

It's better to be right than wrong. Doing the right thing is also important, even if there are no votes in it.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the single market

Please show me anyone saying that DURING the EU Referendum?