The betting at 1136 GMT Nov 4th 2020 – politicalbetting.com
Comments
-
The thing about "reaching out over the divide", is that the Democrats have enough problems with managing their own internal divide (between soft left Biden-style moderates and Squad-type radicals), without worrying about bringing centrists and the soft right in as well. Any attempt by the moderates at pacifying the latter group inevitably results in problems with Sanders/AOC etc supporters. Biden seems to have done just enough to thread the needle this time, but I think in general the US right is more united than the left, as it is in the UK.Malmesbury said:
Someone closer to an Andrew Yang could reach out across the divide. He had some powerful things to say about dealing with the effects of globalisation on the low income/deprived areas.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, you are quite right on that. The good news is that Joe Biden seems to understand this very well; of course he has to win first!Casino_Royale said:
And this is how nasty cultural divisions persist, ladies & gentlemen, for all our disbenefit.EPG said:
No. You and the rest of the right always want the left to hand over their balls before entry. Not this time.Casino_Royale said:A huge amount of magnanimity* is needed if Biden does win.
He will have been bloody lucky, despite the national lead, and he will have to disprove Republican fears about him and the Dems in office if he wants to avoid widespread disorder - particularly given how hard and deep rural areas have gone red. Totally uber red.
(*yes, I know Trump never did this but you need to expect more from Biden otherwise both parties will descend into an ever more vicious tit-for-tat, and it will fuel the Rep selection of the next candidate as Trump-lite)
It takes courage, yes. It takes leadership, yes. It takes humility, yes.
Obstinacy only leads down one path.
In retrospect Kamala Harris probably wasn't the best VP choice. He should have gone for Amy Klobuchar.0 -
Yes, that is correct.Malmesbury said:
Foxy is referring to the internal NHS alert level, I believe.noneoftheabove said:
Didnt Boris annouce that on Saturday?Foxy said:Maybe I reversed ferretted too soon on Biden...
Simon Stevens (NHS CEO England) has just announced nationwide Covid Level 4 from midnight.
I think that means cancellation of a lot of elective work. Not sure of the full details.
Which relates to the internal operations of the NHS, not the national external alert level.
What a day. Just arrived at work and its all kicking off...
Cancer treatments should continue, is my understanding.Floater said:
Shit - does that mean my sons radiotherapy will be stopped?Foxy said:
Yes, that is correct.Malmesbury said:
Foxy is referring to the internal NHS alert level, I believe.noneoftheabove said:
Didnt Boris annouce that on Saturday?Foxy said:Maybe I reversed ferretted too soon on Biden...
Simon Stevens (NHS CEO England) has just announced nationwide Covid Level 4 from midnight.
I think that means cancellation of a lot of elective work. Not sure of the full details.
Which relates to the internal operations of the NHS, not the national external alert level.
What a day. Just arrived at work and its all kicking off...
Hips etc are what gets cancelled first.0 -
You mean, still loyal to the Kaiser?El_Capitano said:
There were Siberian Russians in 1922 who thought they were still ruled by the Tzar. I'm sure there are corners of Ohio like that.Anabobazina said:Weird to think that millions of Americans will be fast asleep assuming Trump has won.
2 -
The world is officially going to shit....
Rutland: England's McDonald's-free county gets restaurant
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-leicestershire-547946230 -
Ohio = the presidency. Not this time.0
-
No need to be sexist about it.Time_to_Leave said:
No need to shred before the election. We rub out the pencil and change the votes in our favour.kle4 said:
Eh, after a few time even then it becomes routine...RobD said:
Would have been more exciting had it been before the election.FrankBooth said:As I said only a few days ago I was once given the task of shredding late arrived ballots at my local council. This was about four months after the elections by the way. Once of the most boring jobs I've had.
#penisbest0 -
Just been talking to a very pleasant American chap in a local cafe, who was pleased to hear me report that the mood here is a likely Biden win but said that he thinks it is looking increasingly Trumpy.
How relaxing it is to observe the political sound and fury of another country for a bit, rather than be morosely stuck in our own.1 -
Not in all states. And other issues on the same ballot. And some went home for the night (outrageous!), etc.Gallowgate said:Why are they so slow to count? I thought it was all electronic?
0 -
thanks for the response Foxy - myself and Mrs Floater were beginig to wobbleFoxy said:
Yes, that is correct.Malmesbury said:
Foxy is referring to the internal NHS alert level, I believe.noneoftheabove said:
Didnt Boris annouce that on Saturday?Foxy said:Maybe I reversed ferretted too soon on Biden...
Simon Stevens (NHS CEO England) has just announced nationwide Covid Level 4 from midnight.
I think that means cancellation of a lot of elective work. Not sure of the full details.
Which relates to the internal operations of the NHS, not the national external alert level.
What a day. Just arrived at work and its all kicking off...
Cancer treatments should continue, is my understanding.Floater said:
Shit - does that mean my sons radiotherapy will be stopped?Foxy said:
Yes, that is correct.Malmesbury said:
Foxy is referring to the internal NHS alert level, I believe.noneoftheabove said:
Didnt Boris annouce that on Saturday?Foxy said:Maybe I reversed ferretted too soon on Biden...
Simon Stevens (NHS CEO England) has just announced nationwide Covid Level 4 from midnight.
I think that means cancellation of a lot of elective work. Not sure of the full details.
Which relates to the internal operations of the NHS, not the national external alert level.
What a day. Just arrived at work and its all kicking off...
Hips etc are what gets cancelled first.
0 -
Head of Monmouth polling on BBC says 'whenever Donald Trump's name is on the ballot all bets are off as far as polling is concerned.'0
-
I've not learned a lesson in decades and I don't intend to start now.Barnesian said:
Certainly lessons to be learned from this election.Richard_Nabavi said:
Maybe. Depends on the economy, and who gets the blame for it.Pulpstar said:This is why the Tories will win again at the next GE.
https://twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/13239664199193436171 -
You have no way of knowing he lost any then. I heard a woman in Florida saying the reason they were voting Trump was because Kemala would take away their guns. Doing the right thing loses some votes but gains others.Stocky said:
Yes. Putting my betting wishes to one side, my ideal was a narrow Biden win (to get rid of ogre Trump who is a disgrace to the US) with GOP holding the Senate.FrancisUrquhart said:One positive of such a close result, hopefully it will put an end to the nonsense of defund the police movement even been entertained....well other than Portland, who upcoming mayoral election is between the current idiot and somebody even more radical.
My reason was the identity politics stuff. I think Biden will squeak it, but he would have won more handsomely if the dems weren`t so liable to be captured by the illiberal garbage and virtue signalling of the far left. (We`ll never know how many votes Biden lost by "taking the knee" for instance).1 -
Overall, it looks like Republicans in Congress outperformed Trump.0
-
I'm beginning to relax. Was a scary night because at one stage things looked like they were sliding badly but then if you looked into the subsets Biden was clearly winning swings from 2016 - crucially in the suburbs. And I'll give John King on CNN kudos for one vital statement: 'to win the Presidency you have to win the suburbs.'CorrectHorseBattery said:
I held my nerve and came back in when Biden dipped into the 260s ECV but I'm not sure I'm going to spread bet again for a while. I've had a bloody lucky escape. A bit like Joe Biden in a way.0 -
Michigan is going to end up being very comfortable for Biden.rottenborough said:Loads of votes still to go in MI says an official.
100,000s0 -
Can I just make a point, that whatever happens a large percentage of Americans have decided Trump is shit and they want him out. There is hope for the world.2
-
Grand Rapids has a ton of uncounted apparently. Dem city.Pulpstar said:
Michigan is going to end up being very comfortable for Biden.rottenborough said:Loads of votes still to go in MI says an official.
100,000s1 -
All things are relative, I guessCorrectHorseBattery said:Biden has repeated the primaries, back from the dead
0 -
Covid 7 day numbers are falling through the floor. How are the scientists going to explain this having said the Tier system wasn't having an effect?0
-
So is it turning out that the polls weren't that wrong, or were they still out0
-
Absolutely. Even better when it is not one as world impacting as the USA election.Cookie said:Just been talking to a very pleasant American chap in a local cafe, who was pleased to hear me report that the mood here is a likely Biden win but said that he thinks it is looking increasingly Trumpy.
How relaxing it is to observe the political sound and fury of another country for a bit, rather than be morosely stuck in our own.0 -
Possibly a later German Leader? ;-)Richard_Nabavi said:
You mean, still loyal to the Kaiser?El_Capitano said:
There were Siberian Russians in 1922 who thought they were still ruled by the Tzar. I'm sure there are corners of Ohio like that.Anabobazina said:Weird to think that millions of Americans will be fast asleep assuming Trump has won.
1 -
The problem is that the ones with all the guns disagree....CorrectHorseBattery said:Can I just make a point, that whatever happens a large percentage of Americans have decided Trump is shit and they want him out. There is hope for the world.
0 -
of course this will mean weeks and months of legal nonsense from Trump but the fact Biden has 270+ and will win the Nat Vote clearly is a better position than not. I also sense PA could possibly still flip, GA maybe just to stay redMysticrose said:
I'm beginning to relax. Was a scary night because at one stage things looked like they were sliding badly but then if you looked into the subsets Biden was clearly winning swings from 2016 - crucially in the suburbs. And I'll give John King on CNN kudos for one vital statement: 'to win the Presidency you have to win the suburbs.'CorrectHorseBattery said:
I held my nerve and came back in when Biden dipped into the 260s ECV but I'm not sure I'm going to spread bet again for a while. I've had a bloody lucky escape. A bit like Joe Biden in a way.0 -
Its looking a lot more reassuring than it was in the middle of the night.
Though that would be why Trump threw his tantrum this morning, he knew it was coming.3 -
Yes exactly. With hindsight, he knew.Philip_Thompson said:Its looking a lot more reassuring than it was in the middle of the night.
Though that would be why Trump threw his tantrum this morning, he knew it was coming.
The 'Wisconsin moment' was extraordinary. Anyone who was up for it will know what I mean. It was Sunderland all over again.0 -
I hope those bars aren’t to scale, because if they are, the maths is clearly wrong. The Trump advantage in remaining on the day votes doesn’t show at allMysticrose said:0 -
They were certainly miles out in Florida and pretty out in the rest of the South, better in the West as they were last time and how they were in the rustbelt we will only find out once all the ballots are in.CorrectHorseBattery said:So is it turning out that the polls weren't that wrong, or were they still out
Nationally they got Biden's voteshare about right but significantly underestimated the Trump voteshare0 -
Trump's vote has done better than hold up. He's turned out lots of voters who didn't vote for him last time.Mal557 said:Clearly Biden has done really well in suburbs and cities around the country. But Trumps vote has held up incredibly well. The US really is a nation divided
This is not the picture of a country turning against the last four years.4 -
I expect the Democratic lead in percentage terms for the House elections will be less than at Presidential level. The Republicans are up four seats so far, although I agree the Democrats have held it.HYUFD said:
Not in the House which the Democrats look certain to have heldSean_F said:Overall, it looks like Republicans in Congress outperformed Trump.
At Senate level, I don't think there's much doubt that their incumbents have outperformed Trump.0 -
A couple of Republicans have basically just conceded on CNN.0
-
I think it's some Republicans just not liking Trump. They'll be content to control half the branches of government.alex_ said:
Is this possibly just that lots of people voted to remove Trump. But simply couldn't be bothered to work their way through all the other forms?Sean_F said:Overall, it looks like Republicans in Congress outperformed Trump.
1 -
If you were going to steal this election for the Dems, by finding lots of postal votes stuffed down the sofa, you couldn't do it in this scenario without grossly inflating the turnout could you?-1
-
Is this serious?Luckyguy1983 said:If you were going to steal this election for the Dems, by finding lots of postal votes stuffed down the sofa, you couldn't do it in this scenario without grossly inflating the turnout could you?
0 -
I am still so confused about when it was, can you remember the time? It must have been when I woke up in the middle of the night maybe? I was there for it.Mysticrose said:
Yes exactly. With hindsight, he knew.Philip_Thompson said:Its looking a lot more reassuring than it was in the middle of the night.
Though that would be why Trump threw his tantrum this morning, he knew it was coming.
The 'Wisconsin moment' was extraordinary. Anyone who was up for it will know what I mean. It was Sunderland all over again.0 -
I think this is going to look like they were about right on the national share.CorrectHorseBattery said:So is it turning out that the polls weren't that wrong, or were they still out
It just masked some remarkable subsets. The latino vote in Florida for example. And in terms of the Electoral College, if Joe Biden does this then it's been by the narrowest of margins in some of the midwest.0 -
Given the efforts at voter suppression - particularly in black neighbourhoods - with people having to queue for hours to vote in person, is it any wonder why people would prefer a postal ballot when there is supposed to be social distancing going on.
Given the turnout figures can anyone imagine what the carnage would have been if there WEREN'T all these postal ballots?0 -
When Trump was not on the ballot in 2018 though they were trounced, if the GOP Congressional candidates do outperform Trump it is only because they got votes from Trump voters who stayed home in 2018 as well as traditional Republicans a few of whom may not have voted for TrumpSean_F said:
I expect the Democratic lead in percentage terms for the House elections will be less than at Presidential level. The Republicans are up four seats so far, although I agree the Democrats have held it.HYUFD said:
Not in the House which the Democrats look certain to have heldSean_F said:Overall, it looks like Republicans in Congress outperformed Trump.
At Senate level, I don't think there's much doubt that their incumbents have outperformed Trump.0 -
So, less than a week to the elections in Belize. Do we think the UDP will remain in power now Dean Barrow is retiring?
Disclaimer: No wikipedia was used in the creation of this post1 -
There was much annoying pro-Trump trolling early this morning, but I think you just took the prize.Luckyguy1983 said:If you were going to steal this election for the Dems, by finding lots of postal votes stuffed down the sofa, you couldn't do it in this scenario without grossly inflating the turnout could you?
2 -
Biden is looking good in Wisconsin. I think it will be called soon?0
-
What's going on in GA? Doesn't seem to have been much action from there for a while.0
-
A recount in WI looks likely. This is going to run...0
-
They need their sleep down southAnabobazina said:What's going on in GA? Doesn't seem to have been much action from there for a while.
0 -
I don't think he has a clue what is coming (ever).Philip_Thompson said:Its looking a lot more reassuring than it was in the middle of the night.
Though that would be why Trump threw his tantrum this morning, he knew it was coming.0 -
The polls were out but not far enough out in every state that mattered for Trump to win overall (it seems). National polls clearly reflected Biden making big gains but a lot in states he either couldnt win or just missed (such as TX NC etc). Seems most state poll averages are several % out though so not a good night for the pollsters but not a total disaster I'd say. But perhaps others will disagreeCorrectHorseBattery said:So is it turning out that the polls weren't that wrong, or were they still out
0 -
Sanders/AOC would have no problem with helping the deprived over the effects of globalisation - I'm talking about building a coalition on common interests.Endillion said:
The thing about "reaching out over the divide", is that the Democrats have enough problems with managing their own internal divide (between soft left Biden-style moderates and Squad-type radicals), without worrying about bringing centrists and the soft right in as well. Any attempt by the moderates at pacifying the latter group inevitably results in problems with Sanders/AOC etc supporters. Biden seems to have done just enough to thread the needle this time, but I think in general the US right is more united than the left, as it is in the UK.Malmesbury said:
Someone closer to an Andrew Yang could reach out across the divide. He had some powerful things to say about dealing with the effects of globalisation on the low income/deprived areas.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, you are quite right on that. The good news is that Joe Biden seems to understand this very well; of course he has to win first!Casino_Royale said:
And this is how nasty cultural divisions persist, ladies & gentlemen, for all our disbenefit.EPG said:
No. You and the rest of the right always want the left to hand over their balls before entry. Not this time.Casino_Royale said:A huge amount of magnanimity* is needed if Biden does win.
He will have been bloody lucky, despite the national lead, and he will have to disprove Republican fears about him and the Dems in office if he wants to avoid widespread disorder - particularly given how hard and deep rural areas have gone red. Totally uber red.
(*yes, I know Trump never did this but you need to expect more from Biden otherwise both parties will descend into an ever more vicious tit-for-tat, and it will fuel the Rep selection of the next candidate as Trump-lite)
It takes courage, yes. It takes leadership, yes. It takes humility, yes.
Obstinacy only leads down one path.
In retrospect Kamala Harris probably wasn't the best VP choice. He should have gone for Amy Klobuchar.0 -
And even if Trump does lose now he is close enough he is almost certain to either run again in 2024, probably against Harris assuming Biden only serves one term or to anoint Eric or Ivanka Trump who will compete for the nomination with VP Pence instead to be Trump's heir apparent.LostPassword said:
Trump's vote has done better than hold up. He's turned out lots of voters who didn't vote for him last time.Mal557 said:Clearly Biden has done really well in suburbs and cities around the country. But Trumps vote has held up incredibly well. The US really is a nation divided
This is not the picture of a country turning against the last four years.
This result guarantees the stranglehold of Team Trump over the GOP probably for at least the majority of the next decade, it needed a Biden landslide to enable establishment moderates like Romney, Kasich and Haley within the GOP to regain control of the party and that did not happen0 -
I think they said they will continue counting, but won't add anything to totals/announce anything during the night.Anabobazina said:What's going on in GA? Doesn't seem to have been much action from there for a while.
0 -
Not much since the 1996 Olympics.Anabobazina said:What's going on in GA? Doesn't seem to have been much action from there for a while.
1 -
I might be nerdy and scroll back later to give you the definitive answerAnabobazina said:
I am still so confused about when it was, can you remember the time? It must have been when I woke up in the middle of the night maybe? I was there for it.Mysticrose said:
Yes exactly. With hindsight, he knew.Philip_Thompson said:Its looking a lot more reassuring than it was in the middle of the night.
Though that would be why Trump threw his tantrum this morning, he knew it was coming.
The 'Wisconsin moment' was extraordinary. Anyone who was up for it will know what I mean. It was Sunderland all over again.
0 -
I believe that recount is legally mandated.IanB2 said:A recount in WI looks likely. This is going to run...
0 -
When Trump talked about calling the election and deploying lawyers so early in the night, he must have had some kind of internals from the rust belt states and realised that he probably wasn't building up enough on day votes to offset the huge postal votes that came in later or are still coming inMysticrose said:
Yes exactly. With hindsight, he knew.Philip_Thompson said:Its looking a lot more reassuring than it was in the middle of the night.
Though that would be why Trump threw his tantrum this morning, he knew it was coming.
The 'Wisconsin moment' was extraordinary. Anyone who was up for it will know what I mean. It was Sunderland all over again.0 -
I think there's next to no chance that the GOP will return to Trump.HYUFD said:
And even if Trump does lose now he is close enough he is almost certain to run again in 2024,LostPassword said:
Trump's vote has done better than hold up. He's turned out lots of voters who didn't vote for him last time.Mal557 said:Clearly Biden has done really well in suburbs and cities around the country. But Trumps vote has held up incredibly well. The US really is a nation divided
This is not the picture of a country turning against the last four years.
By 2021 the knives will be out. And how.0 -
If the Democrats were smart about this, they would build bridges to the white working classes. I think Biden gets that.
Unfortunately, I think the lesson that the left of the party will take from this is they can win an election without needing to address the concerns of white non-urban voters and, critically, that all they need to do to make sure the vote is not close next time is do a lot more for the Hispanic community and thus strengthen the whole identity politics movement.
Conversely, I suspect the Republicans will realise that social conservatism is definitely the way forwards to attract more Hispanic / Black votes.2 -
Cheerio. As someone once said about another PB favourite..
"Don't let the door hit your fat arse as you leave"0 -
I think it was about 9.30amMysticrose said:
I might be nerdy and scroll back later to give you the definitive answerAnabobazina said:
I am still so confused about when it was, can you remember the time? It must have been when I woke up in the middle of the night maybe? I was there for it.Mysticrose said:
Yes exactly. With hindsight, he knew.Philip_Thompson said:Its looking a lot more reassuring than it was in the middle of the night.
Though that would be why Trump threw his tantrum this morning, he knew it was coming.
The 'Wisconsin moment' was extraordinary. Anyone who was up for it will know what I mean. It was Sunderland all over again.0 -
Much obligedMysticrose said:
I might be nerdy and scroll back later to give you the definitive answerAnabobazina said:
I am still so confused about when it was, can you remember the time? It must have been when I woke up in the middle of the night maybe? I was there for it.Mysticrose said:
Yes exactly. With hindsight, he knew.Philip_Thompson said:Its looking a lot more reassuring than it was in the middle of the night.
Though that would be why Trump threw his tantrum this morning, he knew it was coming.
The 'Wisconsin moment' was extraordinary. Anyone who was up for it will know what I mean. It was Sunderland all over again.
0 -
I’m down £40 on the election. I cashed out my £10 buy of Biden 285+ ECVs at a loss of -£10 and also lost £30 on backing Biden is one of the landslide bands. Disappointing not to have made any money but really pleased at the moment with Biden strong favourite again. Extraordinary election!0
-
Yep they are on other networks tooAnabobazina said:A couple of Republicans have basically just conceded on CNN.
1 -
Thanks. I am just trying to get it straight in my head. IF this happened, it would show as significantly elevated turnout in the 'late Biden surge' states that counted their postal ballots last, and turnout being as predicted, or at least significantly lower, in the 'Trump surge' states where they were counted first.Mexicanpete said:
There was much annoying pro-Trump trolling early this morning, but I think you just took the prize.Luckyguy1983 said:If you were going to steal this election for the Dems, by finding lots of postal votes stuffed down the sofa, you couldn't do it in this scenario without grossly inflating the turnout could you?
-1 -
I'd say American democracy absolutely is in fine fettle if it means they see the back of the weird sociopath and his strange antics but leaving a GOP controlled senate in place. Just the job.0
-
Massive increases in turnout was predicted by all the polls. Figures of up to 20% of voters who didn't vote last time.Luckyguy1983 said:
Thanks. I am just trying to get it straight in my head. IF this happened, it would show as significantly elevated turnout in the 'late Biden surge' states that counted their postal ballots last, and turnout being as predicted, or at least significantly lower, in the 'Trump surge' states where they were counted first.Mexicanpete said:
There was much annoying pro-Trump trolling early this morning, but I think you just took the prize.Luckyguy1983 said:If you were going to steal this election for the Dems, by finding lots of postal votes stuffed down the sofa, you couldn't do it in this scenario without grossly inflating the turnout could you?
0 -
If Biden does win yes look for a GOP landslide in the 2022 midtermsMrEd said:If the Democrats were smart about this, they would build bridges to the white working classes. I think Biden gets that.
Unfortunately, I think the lesson that the left of the party will take from this is they can win an election without needing to address the concerns of white non-urban voters and, critically, that all they need to do to make sure the vote is not close next time is do a lot more for the Hispanic community and thus strengthen the whole identity politics movement.
Conversely, I suspect the Republicans will realise that social conservatism is definitely the way forwards to attract more Hispanic / Black votes.0 -
You are going to have near half of America thinking that Biden is the Election Thief in Chief. Not good.
I actually think that it would be best for the USA for the Supreme Court to rule on this election. To uphold Biden as President. A Trump-stacked Supreme Court saying, er, actually there was no fraud and Biden is legitimately the President could defuse a significant number. Although this situation has the scope to go BADLY. Very badly. For example, I could see many many millions of Trump voters refusing to pay taxes. "No taxation without representation" would be their battle cry.0 -
Okay, that makes some sort of sense.alex_ said:
I think it was about 9.30amMysticrose said:
I might be nerdy and scroll back later to give you the definitive answerAnabobazina said:
I am still so confused about when it was, can you remember the time? It must have been when I woke up in the middle of the night maybe? I was there for it.Mysticrose said:
Yes exactly. With hindsight, he knew.Philip_Thompson said:Its looking a lot more reassuring than it was in the middle of the night.
Though that would be why Trump threw his tantrum this morning, he knew it was coming.
The 'Wisconsin moment' was extraordinary. Anyone who was up for it will know what I mean. It was Sunderland all over again.
I was going to say, I went to bed sure that Trump had won.0 -
Is that true? There seem to be several states (most of them?) where Trump has done better than the Republican senate incumbents.Sean_F said:
I expect the Democratic lead in percentage terms for the House elections will be less than at Presidential level. The Republicans are up four seats so far, although I agree the Democrats have held it.HYUFD said:
Not in the House which the Democrats look certain to have heldSean_F said:Overall, it looks like Republicans in Congress outperformed Trump.
At Senate level, I don't think there's much doubt that their incumbents have outperformed Trump.0 -
It is the base who pick the nominee and for them it will be 'Donald Wuz Robbed'Mysticrose said:
I think there's next to no chance that the GOP will return to Trump.HYUFD said:
And even if Trump does lose now he is close enough he is almost certain to run again in 2024,LostPassword said:
Trump's vote has done better than hold up. He's turned out lots of voters who didn't vote for him last time.Mal557 said:Clearly Biden has done really well in suburbs and cities around the country. But Trumps vote has held up incredibly well. The US really is a nation divided
This is not the picture of a country turning against the last four years.
By 2021 the knives will be out. And how.0 -
From the lack of comment I assume nothing in from Puerto Rico on their statehood plebisicite? Waiting til the mainland stuff is concluded perhaps.0
-
Michigan is going to be an easy win for Biden isn't it?1
-
In 2016 Trump received 63 million votes only +2.1 million votes on Romney 2012 and a lower vote share by 1.1pp.
Hard to tell where the vote share will end up, but he's already +3.8 million votes on 2016.
Obama lost votes between 2008 and 2012. Bush II gained 11.6 million votes.
There's a lot of voters out there for whom Trump exceeded their expectations and voted for him this time when hatred of Clinton didn't make them do so last time.
Even if Biden wins I feel that's important politically.2 -
They could pay their taxes to China like their leader instead.MarqueeMark said:You are going to have near half of America thinking that Biden is the Election Thief in Chief. Not good.
I actually think that it would be best for the USA for the Supreme Court to rule on this election. To uphold Biden as President. A Trump-stacked Supreme Court saying, er, actually there was no fraud and Biden is legitimately the President could defuse a significant number. Although this situation has the scope to go BADLY. Very badly. For example, I could see many many millions of Trump voters refusing to pay taxes. "No taxation without representation" would be their battle cry.0 -
With Biden/Harris looking the lamest of lame ducks.HYUFD said:
If Biden does win yes look for a GOP landslide in the 2022 midtermsMrEd said:If the Democrats were smart about this, they would build bridges to the white working classes. I think Biden gets that.
Unfortunately, I think the lesson that the left of the party will take from this is they can win an election without needing to address the concerns of white non-urban voters and, critically, that all they need to do to make sure the vote is not close next time is do a lot more for the Hispanic community and thus strengthen the whole identity politics movement.
Conversely, I suspect the Republicans will realise that social conservatism is definitely the way forwards to attract more Hispanic / Black votes.1 -
That's dreadful. What's the point of loving guns more than anything in the world if not to use them rather than knives?Mysticrose said:
I think there's next to no chance that the GOP will return to Trump.HYUFD said:
And even if Trump does lose now he is close enough he is almost certain to run again in 2024,LostPassword said:
Trump's vote has done better than hold up. He's turned out lots of voters who didn't vote for him last time.Mal557 said:Clearly Biden has done really well in suburbs and cities around the country. But Trumps vote has held up incredibly well. The US really is a nation divided
This is not the picture of a country turning against the last four years.
By 2021 the knives will be out. And how.1 -
Less highmindedly, this is why I am considering greening up -- the prospect of markets being suspended for weeks while the legal fraternity has its two penn'orth.MarqueeMark said:You are going to have near half of America thinking that Biden is the Election Thief in Chief. Not good.
I actually think that it would be best for the USA for the Supreme Court to rule on this election. To uphold Biden as President. A Trump-stacked Supreme Court saying, er, actually there was no fraud and Biden is legitimately the President could defuse a significant number. Although this situation has the scope to go BADLY. Very badly. For example, I could see many many millions of Trump voters refusing to pay taxes. "No taxation without representation" would be their battle cry.0 -
I agree. I am not (contrary to what some may think) alleging vote rigging, but in this instance I think innocence will need to be proven somehow to settle the issue.MarqueeMark said:You are going to have near half of America thinking that Biden is the Election Thief in Chief. Not good.
I actually think that it would be best for the USA for the Supreme Court to rule on this election. To uphold Biden as President. A Trump-stacked Supreme Court saying, er, actually there was no fraud and Biden is legitimately the President could defuse a significant number. Although this situation has the scope to go BADLY. Very badly. For example, I could see many many millions of Trump voters refusing to pay taxes. "No taxation without representation" would be their battle cry.0 -
Not mandated but an option.MarqueeMark said:
I believe that recount is legally mandated.IanB2 said:A recount in WI looks likely. This is going to run...
https://twitter.com/jessieopie/status/1323926191649263617
Margin is currently over 0.5% with probably more Biden votes to come, so probably finish closer to 1%.0 -
Also good for racial partisan polarization to decline, it's weird for nearly all the black people to vote for one party, and having black supporters should help make the GOP less racist.Norm said:I'd say American democracy absolutely is in fine fettle if it means they see the back of the weird sociopath and his strange antics but leaving a GOP controlled senate in place. Just the job.
0 -
If you think "taking the knee" was the right thing then I`ll leave that with you. It`s going to come back and bite Starmer in the arse big style at the next election.Roger said:
You have no way of knowing he lost any then. I heard a woman in Florida saying the reason they were voting Trump was because Kemala would take away their guns. Doing the right thing loses some votes but gains others.Stocky said:
Yes. Putting my betting wishes to one side, my ideal was a narrow Biden win (to get rid of ogre Trump who is a disgrace to the US) with GOP holding the Senate.FrancisUrquhart said:One positive of such a close result, hopefully it will put an end to the nonsense of defund the police movement even been entertained....well other than Portland, who upcoming mayoral election is between the current idiot and somebody even more radical.
My reason was the identity politics stuff. I think Biden will squeak it, but he would have won more handsomely if the dems weren`t so liable to be captured by the illiberal garbage and virtue signalling of the far left. (We`ll never know how many votes Biden lost by "taking the knee" for instance).1 -
After 88% votes in it is Yes 52.29%kle4 said:From the lack of comment I assume nothing in from Puerto Rico on their statehood plebisicite? Waiting til the mainland stuff is concluded perhaps.
Officially the Republicans back statehood if they vote for it, Republican Senator Marco Rubio does especially. So it will be interesting to see what happens.0 -
Is GA going to be a near miss for Biden?0
-
Not according to the dreadfully poor BBC News. Showing Trump ahead.Anabobazina said:Michigan is going to be an easy win for Biden isn't it?
BBC guy saying Wisconsin very tight.0 -
The way today has gone I dont like to say anything is easy but both MI and WI look very good for him, even PA might flip though it will be very close either way. I'd love GA to also flip to make the EV gap a little more visible, but the way the year and election has gone, Biden winning with 270 and Trump deploying lawyers like clones of Mr Smith from the Matrix, is probably fitting for 2020.Anabobazina said:Michigan is going to be an easy win for Biden isn't it?
0 -
Not only has Biden won the most votes for any Democratic candidate bar Obama in 2008 but so today has Trump won the most votes for any Republican candidate ever and the highest voteshare for the GOP nominee since George W Bush in 2004, that must not be forgotten, it is Trump's party still and probably will remain so for the rest of this decade nowLostPassword said:In 2016 Trump received 63 million votes only +2.1 million votes on Romney 2012 and a lower vote share by 1.1pp.
Hard to tell where the vote share will end up, but he's already +3.8 million votes on 2016.
Obama lost votes between 2008 and 2012. Bush II gained 11.6 million votes.
There's a lot of voters out there for whom Trump exceeded their expectations and voted for him this time when hatred of Clinton didn't make them do so last time.
Even if Biden wins I feel that's important politically.0 -
Bernie Sanders' powers of prediction a couple of weeks ago are attracting some attention on twitter :
https://twitter.com/MSterling27/status/13239417685267660811 -
At the end of the day, this is going to the SC. I’ve been told on good authority that the reason the Rs rushed through Barrett was not because they thought they would lose the Senate but that they were “terrified” (and this is their word, not mine) that the Democrats would continue to find postal ballots until the Ds won in the states. It’s essentially what happened in several of the CA House seats in 2018 (it was never proved but ballot harvesting was suspected).Luckyguy1983 said:
Thanks. I am just trying to get it straight in my head. IF this happened, it would show as significantly elevated turnout in the 'late Biden surge' states that counted their postal ballots last, and turnout being as predicted, or at least significantly lower, in the 'Trump surge' states where they were counted first.Mexicanpete said:
There was much annoying pro-Trump trolling early this morning, but I think you just took the prize.Luckyguy1983 said:If you were going to steal this election for the Dems, by finding lots of postal votes stuffed down the sofa, you couldn't do it in this scenario without grossly inflating the turnout could you?
This argument came from a very well connected, establishment Republican who is anti-Trump1 -
Yes, and of that trend is universal there will be no grounds for suspicion. However, if it is markedly up against predictions in areas where Biden has won on postals, and consists of postal ballots, it looks odd.alex_ said:
Massive increases in turnout was predicted by all the polls. Figures of up to 20% of voters who didn't vote last time.Luckyguy1983 said:
Thanks. I am just trying to get it straight in my head. IF this happened, it would show as significantly elevated turnout in the 'late Biden surge' states that counted their postal ballots last, and turnout being as predicted, or at least significantly lower, in the 'Trump surge' states where they were counted first.Mexicanpete said:
There was much annoying pro-Trump trolling early this morning, but I think you just took the prize.Luckyguy1983 said:If you were going to steal this election for the Dems, by finding lots of postal votes stuffed down the sofa, you couldn't do it in this scenario without grossly inflating the turnout could you?
0 -
I wonder if the budget deficit will suddenly become a key issue for GOP senators again in the next 4 years when they havent given a toss about it for the last 4. I wonder.......Norm said:I'd say American democracy absolutely is in fine fettle if it means they see the back of the weird sociopath and his strange antics but leaving a GOP controlled senate in place. Just the job.
0 -
What a night, went to bed at 3:45am with Trump firmly in control. Woke up at 7am and he's almost got it in the bag, then a few hours later Biden looks like he's won. Crazy.
It was nerve wracking enough watching it from afar, so I'm glad I didn't bet anything on it as well.0 -
And if the Trump-packed Supreme Court finds in favour of Trump with the votes and EC awarded to Biden - how will that make things better.MarqueeMark said:You are going to have near half of America thinking that Biden is the Election Thief in Chief. Not good.
I actually think that it would be best for the USA for the Supreme Court to rule on this election. To uphold Biden as President. A Trump-stacked Supreme Court saying, er, actually there was no fraud and Biden is legitimately the President could defuse a significant number. Although this situation has the scope to go BADLY. Very badly. For example, I could see many many millions of Trump voters refusing to pay taxes. "No taxation without representation" would be their battle cry.0 -
Full credit to the Biden campaign if they have pulled this off. They could have succumbed to the siren song in places like TX and OH and let the Mid west slip through their fingers, but they were ruthlessy focussed on the WIMIPA states.0
-
Wasn't it Trump needing to request one if it's under a 1% lead?MarqueeMark said:
I believe that recount is legally mandated.IanB2 said:A recount in WI looks likely. This is going to run...
At the moment, it's 0.72%, so there's a good chance it'll be outside the 1%.0
