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The betting at 1136 GMT Nov 4th 2020 – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,128
edited November 2020 in General
imageThe betting at 1136 GMT Nov 4th 2020 – politicalbetting.com

Chart of Betfair market from Betdata.io.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    edited November 2020
    First
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    gealbhan said:

    Thirst

    Like Biden.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    You have to pity the American people - what a choice to be faced with - Biden or Trump

    This is really the pick of the American political scene?
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,463
    are they finally running out of shy Trump voters....?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,644
    Fpt Big swings in Texas, Georgia, US Hispanics etc... Biden with more white votes and a lower share of the black vote... Say what you will, but it is actually evidence against increasing division along sectional lines.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Pulpstar said:

    Floater said:

    You have to pity the American people - what a choice to be faced with - Biden or Trump

    This is really the pick of the American political scene?

    It's not a hard choice.
    One is edging towards fascism the other isn't.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    An increasing number of leading European politicians are using this election as an argument for Europe to “take its destiny into its own hands”, as former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt put it - or in the words of France’s Europe minister, not to look to US election results to decide Europe’s fate.

    Answer to every crisis...more and closer EU.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1323950963535892481
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1323933769745780736
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    FPT:

    There's been a lot of talk about it being a disappointing night for the Dems but if Biden wins the EC 306 to 232 and the EV by >5%, I am not sure how the GOP, with a losing incumbent President, can take a lot of comfort from that.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    Is Donald looking like a loser?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Looks like Biden has this but more nail biting than expected.

    Though to be fair it was repeatedly said to expect a red mirage then blue shift in advance - but it actually happening feels different than expecting it.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    GIN1138 said:

    Is Donald looking like a loser?

    Yes.

    He might win, but even so he'd still look like one.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1323959482976710656

    Jesus.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    An increasing number of leading European politicians are using this election as an argument for Europe to “take its destiny into its own hands”, as former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt put it - or in the words of France’s Europe minister, not to look to US election results to decide Europe’s fate.

    Answer to every crisis...more and closer EU.

    We knew you’d come round in the end ;)
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772
    Benpointer said:

    FPT:

    There's been a lot of talk about it being a disappointing night for the Dems but if Biden wins the EC 306 to 232 and the EV by >5%, I am not sure how the GOP, with a losing incumbent President, can take a lot of comfort from that.

    They will keep the Senate. That was as big a prize as the Presidency in many ways. And it wasn’t a complete rejection of Trumpism, which I fear is now sadly here to stay.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Looks like Biden has this but more nail biting than expected.

    Though to be fair it was repeatedly said to expect a red mirage then blue shift in advance - but it actually happening feels different than expecting it.

    Yeah - I wish I could find even one of them now but I read so many pieces suggesting that things would look good for the R's, and Trump would capitalise on that, before the absentee's came through.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    WI - only 11K in it.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,796
    Are Eastern / Midwest states still counting or has it all stopped for the night?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited November 2020
    May get a siesta. Feeling a lot more settled. In retrospect Trump's ridiculous speech was prescient.

    I'm sitting on my 262 Biden ECVs buy which at the time gave me an adrenaline rush of visceral fear at a very dark, 'oh no not again' moment. Think that bet looks okay at the moment.

    I still think if Biden does this, then he's a lucky man. He will have won some key midwestern states by tiny margins. And they're not certain. But unlike 2016 Biden will have the popular vote behind him which I think adds credibility against Trump's inevitable attempt to corrupt the vote.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1323959482976710656

    Jesus.

    Isn't that the right answer, regardless of who is answering it?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1323959482976710656

    Jesus.

    Damn right too. It'd be insane for the PM to get involved in this, what on earth is Starmer thinking asking that question?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1323959482976710656

    Jesus.

    TBF in the circumstances that is the right answer.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Kenosha, WI. Mail ballots. Absolutely crucial saying CNN.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    Benpointer said:

    FPT:

    There's been a lot of talk about it being a disappointing night for the Dems but if Biden wins the EC 306 to 232 and the EV by >5%, I am not sure how the GOP, with a losing incumbent President, can take a lot of comfort from that.

    The GOP will still hold the Senate. They can do a lot to frustrate Biden as a result, and be well-placed to win the House in the midterms.

    The Democrats needed to win all three to have a chance, any chance at all, of starting to fix things. Biden as President without the Senate will at least slow the rate at which things get worse, which would be better than another four years of Trump, but not enough to turn the tide.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Are Eastern / Midwest states still counting or has it all stopped for the night?

    WI is still counting, I think MI and PA are too.

    https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/2020/general/wisconsin
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-03/china-s-xi-says-economy-can-double-in-size-by-2035

    Chinese President Xi Jinping said the economy can double in size by 2035 and the country can reach high-income status in the next five years
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Are Eastern / Midwest states still counting or has it all stopped for the night?

    WI is counting
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,327
    I think Biden is still in the driving seat, its just that Trump is in the passenger seat.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    IanB2 said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1323959482976710656

    Jesus.

    TBF in the circumstances that is the right answer.
    Starmer should not even have gone there
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    Yokes said:

    I think Biden is still in the driving seat, its just that Trump is in the passenger seat.

    Can they both drive off into thr sunset and they rerun the election with two decent candidates?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323959890637918208
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    The latest Betfair prices for Biden in the five swing states

    Georgia 50%
    Wisconsin 75%
    Michigan 74%
    Penn 49%
    Nevada 83%

    According to my calculations this gives Biden a 81% chance (1.23) .
    He is currently at 1.45 which is about the lowest he has ever been.

    I've traded out of my potential £1,400 loss on Trump winning and I'm nursing a £30 loss.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,060
    numbertwelve said:

    gealbhan said:

    numbertwelve said:

    A few takeaways from the electoral map:

    1. Are Florida/Ohio even swing states any more? They look to be trending GOP over time to the extent that I really don’t think any democrat can look for a route through those states in the next few cycles.

    2. Conversely, Arizona and Texas are gradually moving to be more in play for Democrats. They didn’t get Texas this time but every time there is an election there they are inching forwards bit by bit.

    3. The rust belt is now the most significant battleground of US politics. 2016 was not an aberration.

    Good points. Florida results still very close though? And would a Patrician Republican appeal to the same dem demographic, like how would Romney have done in rust belt yesterday?
    It was close but for a long time Florida has been seen as the jewel in the crown of US elections. Winning that has been seen as crucial. It was thought the demographics favoured Biden slightly, but it translated into a narrow but fairly solid Trump win. The GOP have also outperformed expectations at the state level in the last few cycles. If the GOP are winning states like Florida with a president like Trump, I really can’t see them letting go of it any time soon.
    For the last 60 Years Florida has only once voted differently to the whole EC, and that was Clinton Bush 1992. So they voted Dem in 2008 and 2016. I think it is hard to claim that FLA is transitioning to Rep.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Blimey

    https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1323960044258529280?s=20
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    LostPassword said:

    Benpointer said:

    FPT:

    There's been a lot of talk about it being a disappointing night for the Dems but if Biden wins the EC 306 to 232 and the EV by >5%, I am not sure how the GOP, with a losing incumbent President, can take a lot of comfort from that.

    The GOP will still hold the Senate. They can do a lot to frustrate Biden as a result, and be well-placed to win the House in the midterms.

    The Democrats needed to win all three to have a chance, any chance at all, of starting to fix things. Biden as President without the Senate will at least slow the rate at which things get worse, which would be better than another four years of Trump, but not enough to turn the tide.
    Yep. Having the power to stop pretty much anything the Dems want to do that you don’t like will be very comforting for them. The best we can hope for is another four years like with Obama, with a nice reasonable guy in charge who fails to get anything much done. The worst case is Kamala takes over and US government returns to a pitched culture battle.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Wayne counting continue. Lot of vote to go says the clerk on CNN.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    A huge amount of magnanimity* is needed if Biden does win.

    He will have been bloody lucky, despite the national lead, and he will have to disprove Republican fears about him and the Dems in office if he wants to avoid widespread disorder - particularly given how hard and deep rural areas have gone red. Totally uber red.

    (*yes, I know Trump never did this but you need to expect more from Biden otherwise both parties will descend into an ever more vicious tit-for-tat, and it will fuel the Rep selection of the next candidate as Trump-lite)
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Sorry, becoming a bore on this one but I don’t think you can count AZ for Biden. If that’s the case, the dynamics change.

    Trump gets AZ + NC + AL, he is on 236. Not sure ME-2 but Collins performance will give him hope so let’s say it’s 237.

    Let’s assume he wins PA. That’s 257.

    He then only has to win one of MI or GA.

    You can also bet there is no way he is going to allow Wayne County to report 140K out of 150K ballots for Biden without a serious legal challenge.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,412
    Increasingly optimistic that Biden will win MI. Wisconsin looks very tight
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    Philip_Thompson said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1323959482976710656

    Jesus.

    Damn right too. It'd be insane for the PM to get involved in this, what on earth is Starmer thinking asking that question?
    He didn't really ask the question. It was more a preamble. He also congratulated the Speaker and sympathized with the victoms of terrorist attacks before asking his first question. Which was about Lockdown.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Mr Ed all the channels are calling Arizona for the Dems, and the Dems are confident they've won it
  • DearPBDearPB Posts: 439
    I don't really understand what's driving the betting market right now. I got on Biden at 3.2 at about 6am - I'm into 120% profit, which I like, but I don't see that anything has changed - the things we know now about the tightening of races we knew at 6am.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Casino_Royale said:

    A huge amount of magnanimity* is needed if Biden does win.

    He will have been bloody lucky, despite the national lead, and he will have to disprove Republican fears about him and the Dems in office if he wants to avoid widespread disorder - particularly given how hard and deep rural areas have gone red. Totally uber red.

    An excellent post
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    GIN1138 said:

    Is Donald looking like a loser?

    I'm just about wondering whether Biden has done this by going through WI and MI.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    An increasing number of leading European politicians are using this election as an argument for Europe to “take its destiny into its own hands”, as former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt put it - or in the words of France’s Europe minister, not to look to US election results to decide Europe’s fate.

    Answer to every crisis...more and closer EU.

    Well, he is right, isn't he? With the world drifting into protectionist economic and political blocs, of course European countries need to pool their collective strengths. Otherwise Europe will be caught in the whims of a not very friendly USA and an actively malign China, with side dishes of Islamist terrorism and Russian thuggery.
    Oh dear. Richard's gone full federalist.

    No, the answer is to form a global democratic alliance of sovereign nations. The EU just has an ideological boner for forming a single nation, and has done since Charlemagne.

    They need to know their limits.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MrEd said:

    Sorry, becoming a bore on this one but I don’t think you can count AZ for Biden. If that’s the case, the dynamics change.

    Trump gets AZ + NC + AL, he is on 236. Not sure ME-2 but Collins performance will give him hope so let’s say it’s 237.

    Let’s assume he wins PA. That’s 257.

    He then only has to win one of MI or GA.

    You can also bet there is no way he is going to allow Wayne County to report 140K out of 150K ballots for Biden without a serious legal challenge.

    Wayne County haven't reported 140/150 for Biden. That was one batch of mail in ballots - which of course is to be expected to be primarily Biden.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    IanB2 said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1323959482976710656

    Jesus.

    TBF in the circumstances that is the right answer.
    Starmer should not even have gone there
    Agreed. A really poor decision by Starmer. That's not a statesmanlike question.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Benpointer said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Are Eastern / Midwest states still counting or has it all stopped for the night?

    WI is still counting, I think MI and PA are too.

    https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/2020/general/wisconsin
    MI is still counting – the county clerk has just been on CNN. Says only 55% of Wayne County counted so far.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    not_on_fire said:

    Increasingly optimistic that Biden will win MI. Wisconsin looks very tight

    I have no nails left.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Casino_Royale said:

    A huge amount of magnanimity* is needed if Biden does win.

    He will have been bloody lucky, despite the national lead, and he will have to disprove Republican fears about him and the Dems in office if he wants to avoid widespread disorder - particularly given how hard and deep rural areas have gone red. Totally uber red.

    (*yes, I know Trump never did this but you need to expect more from Biden otherwise both parties will descend into an ever more vicious tit-for-tat, and it will fuel the Rep selection of the next candidate as Trump-lite)

    Trouble is that Obama tried reaching across but it takes two to tango.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Casino_Royale said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    An increasing number of leading European politicians are using this election as an argument for Europe to “take its destiny into its own hands”, as former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt put it - or in the words of France’s Europe minister, not to look to US election results to decide Europe’s fate.

    Answer to every crisis...more and closer EU.

    Well, he is right, isn't he? With the world drifting into protectionist economic and political blocs, of course European countries need to pool their collective strengths. Otherwise Europe will be caught in the whims of a not very friendly USA and an actively malign China, with side dishes of Islamist terrorism and Russian thuggery.
    Oh dear. Richard's gone full federalist.

    No, the answer is to form a global democratic alliance of sovereign nations. The EU just has an ideological boner for forming a single nation, and has done since Charlemagne.

    They need to know their limits.
    I don't know how anyone can look across the pond and think "look what is going wrong in that federation, we need more continental federalism over here".
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Dreadful performance from Johnson
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Philip_Thompson said:

    MrEd said:

    Sorry, becoming a bore on this one but I don’t think you can count AZ for Biden. If that’s the case, the dynamics change.

    Trump gets AZ + NC + AL, he is on 236. Not sure ME-2 but Collins performance will give him hope so let’s say it’s 237.

    Let’s assume he wins PA. That’s 257.

    He then only has to win one of MI or GA.

    You can also bet there is no way he is going to allow Wayne County to report 140K out of 150K ballots for Biden without a serious legal challenge.

    Wayne County haven't reported 140/150 for Biden. That was one batch of mail in ballots - which of course is to be expected to be primarily Biden.
    Primarily Biden is one thing, over 90pc is another. The scale of those Mail in ballots breaking for Biden is not going to go unchallenged.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited November 2020
    I'm hoping for everyone's sake, except GOP supporters, that this will be decided before Pennsylvania declares.

    I'm very very very cautiously optimistic that this will be the case.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    A huge amount of magnanimity* is needed if Biden does win.

    He will have been bloody lucky, despite the national lead, and he will have to disprove Republican fears about him and the Dems in office if he wants to avoid widespread disorder - particularly given how hard and deep rural areas have gone red. Totally uber red.

    (*yes, I know Trump never did this but you need to expect more from Biden otherwise both parties will descend into an ever more vicious tit-for-tat, and it will fuel the Rep selection of the next candidate as Trump-lite)

    Trouble is that Obama tried reaching across but it takes two to tango.
    It does. But both sides *must* keep trying.

    What's the alternative?
  • DearPBDearPB Posts: 439
    And further to my last post; I'm actually tempted to take my profit and get it on Trump at 3.6 - there'll surely be a moment in the next couple of days where everything wobbles!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    Casino_Royale said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    An increasing number of leading European politicians are using this election as an argument for Europe to “take its destiny into its own hands”, as former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt put it - or in the words of France’s Europe minister, not to look to US election results to decide Europe’s fate.

    Answer to every crisis...more and closer EU.

    Well, he is right, isn't he? With the world drifting into protectionist economic and political blocs, of course European countries need to pool their collective strengths. Otherwise Europe will be caught in the whims of a not very friendly USA and an actively malign China, with side dishes of Islamist terrorism and Russian thuggery.
    Oh dear. Richard's gone full federalist.

    No, the answer is to form a global democratic alliance of sovereign nations. The EU just has an ideological boner for forming a single nation, and has done since Charlemagne.

    They need to know their limits.
    What relationship should Scotland have to this democratic alliance of sovereign nations?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    An increasing number of leading European politicians are using this election as an argument for Europe to “take its destiny into its own hands”, as former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt put it - or in the words of France’s Europe minister, not to look to US election results to decide Europe’s fate.

    Answer to every crisis...more and closer EU.

    Well, he is right, isn't he? With the world drifting into protectionist economic and political blocs, of course European countries need to pool their collective strengths. Otherwise Europe will be caught in the whims of a not very friendly USA and an actively malign China, with side dishes of Islamist terrorism and Russian thuggery.
    Oh dear. Richard's gone full federalist.

    No, the answer is to form a global democratic alliance of sovereign nations. The EU just has an ideological boner for forming a single nation, and has done since Charlemagne.

    They need to know their limits.
    I don't know how anyone can look across the pond and think "look what is going wrong in that federation, we need more continental federalism over here".
    Those driven mad by Brexit.

    Anyway, I really don't want to get into Brexit today. We all have bigger fish to fry.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    MrEd said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MrEd said:

    Sorry, becoming a bore on this one but I don’t think you can count AZ for Biden. If that’s the case, the dynamics change.

    Trump gets AZ + NC + AL, he is on 236. Not sure ME-2 but Collins performance will give him hope so let’s say it’s 237.

    Let’s assume he wins PA. That’s 257.

    He then only has to win one of MI or GA.

    You can also bet there is no way he is going to allow Wayne County to report 140K out of 150K ballots for Biden without a serious legal challenge.

    Wayne County haven't reported 140/150 for Biden. That was one batch of mail in ballots - which of course is to be expected to be primarily Biden.
    Primarily Biden is one thing, over 90pc is another. The scale of those Mail in ballots breaking for Biden is not going to go unchallenged.
    They should do, there are loads of instances from loads of states of early voting ballots in cities being massively Biden-favoured. And loads of instances from loads of states of election day ballots in rural districts massively Trump-favoured. Nothing in these results looks suspicious so far.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    MI now ≈ 26K to Trump.

    Come on Biden.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772
    eristdoof said:

    numbertwelve said:

    gealbhan said:

    numbertwelve said:

    A few takeaways from the electoral map:

    1. Are Florida/Ohio even swing states any more? They look to be trending GOP over time to the extent that I really don’t think any democrat can look for a route through those states in the next few cycles.

    2. Conversely, Arizona and Texas are gradually moving to be more in play for Democrats. They didn’t get Texas this time but every time there is an election there they are inching forwards bit by bit.

    3. The rust belt is now the most significant battleground of US politics. 2016 was not an aberration.

    Good points. Florida results still very close though? And would a Patrician Republican appeal to the same dem demographic, like how would Romney have done in rust belt yesterday?
    It was close but for a long time Florida has been seen as the jewel in the crown of US elections. Winning that has been seen as crucial. It was thought the demographics favoured Biden slightly, but it translated into a narrow but fairly solid Trump win. The GOP have also outperformed expectations at the state level in the last few cycles. If the GOP are winning states like Florida with a president like Trump, I really can’t see them letting go of it any time soon.
    For the last 60 Years Florida has only once voted differently to the whole EC, and that was Clinton Bush 1992. So they voted Dem in 2008 and 2016. I think it is hard to claim that FLA is transitioning to Rep.
    I disagree. If you look at the results post 2012 (I assume you meant 2012 not 2016) the GOP has been performing very strongly there. And last night was no exception. Yes it was close, but in a close election I think you now have to tentatively put it in the GOP column in all likelihood.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Mysticrose said:

    Mr Ed all the channels are calling Arizona for the Dems, and the Dems are confident they've won it

    Mysticrose said:

    Mr Ed all the channels are calling Arizona for the Dems, and the Dems are confident they've won it

    I think a few hours ago, they were all confident re GA being Republican
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Casino_Royale said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    An increasing number of leading European politicians are using this election as an argument for Europe to “take its destiny into its own hands”, as former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt put it - or in the words of France’s Europe minister, not to look to US election results to decide Europe’s fate.

    Answer to every crisis...more and closer EU.

    Well, he is right, isn't he? With the world drifting into protectionist economic and political blocs, of course European countries need to pool their collective strengths. Otherwise Europe will be caught in the whims of a not very friendly USA and an actively malign China, with side dishes of Islamist terrorism and Russian thuggery.
    Oh dear. Richard's gone full federalist.

    No, the answer is to form a global democratic alliance of sovereign nations. The EU just has an ideological boner for forming a single nation, and has done since Charlemagne.

    They need to know their limits.
    Great theory. Unfortunately it requires a global network of sovereign nations to want to join in, and at the moment there are literally zero applicants.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MrEd said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MrEd said:

    Sorry, becoming a bore on this one but I don’t think you can count AZ for Biden. If that’s the case, the dynamics change.

    Trump gets AZ + NC + AL, he is on 236. Not sure ME-2 but Collins performance will give him hope so let’s say it’s 237.

    Let’s assume he wins PA. That’s 257.

    He then only has to win one of MI or GA.

    You can also bet there is no way he is going to allow Wayne County to report 140K out of 150K ballots for Biden without a serious legal challenge.

    Wayne County haven't reported 140/150 for Biden. That was one batch of mail in ballots - which of course is to be expected to be primarily Biden.
    Primarily Biden is one thing, over 90pc is another. The scale of those Mail in ballots breaking for Biden is not going to go unchallenged.
    I don't see why. They look entirely to be expected.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,644
    Casino_Royale said:

    A huge amount of magnanimity* is needed if Biden does win.

    He will have been bloody lucky, despite the national lead, and he will have to disprove Republican fears about him and the Dems in office if he wants to avoid widespread disorder - particularly given how hard and deep rural areas have gone red. Totally uber red.

    (*yes, I know Trump never did this but you need to expect more from Biden otherwise both parties will descend into an ever more vicious tit-for-tat, and it will fuel the Rep selection of the next candidate as Trump-lite)

    No. You and the rest of the right always want the left to hand over their balls before entry. Not this time.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772
    rottenborough said:

    MI now ≈ 26K to Trump.

    Come on Biden.

    I read that as WI for a second and almost had a heart attack.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Weird to think that millions of Americans will be fast asleep assuming Trump has won.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    An increasing number of leading European politicians are using this election as an argument for Europe to “take its destiny into its own hands”, as former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt put it - or in the words of France’s Europe minister, not to look to US election results to decide Europe’s fate.

    Answer to every crisis...more and closer EU.

    Well, he is right, isn't he? With the world drifting into protectionist economic and political blocs, of course European countries need to pool their collective strengths. Otherwise Europe will be caught in the whims of a not very friendly USA and an actively malign China, with side dishes of Islamist terrorism and Russian thuggery.
    Oh dear. Richard's gone full federalist.

    No, the answer is to form a global democratic alliance of sovereign nations. The EU just has an ideological boner for forming a single nation, and has done since Charlemagne.

    They need to know their limits.
    I don't know how anyone can look across the pond and think "look what is going wrong in that federation, we need more continental federalism over here".
    I'm a pro-European/anti-Federalist and thus (shock!) have to agree. And the US has the advantage of a common linguistic and legal heritage. But then I'm a municipalist so I need to stay out of these debates.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    An increasing number of leading European politicians are using this election as an argument for Europe to “take its destiny into its own hands”, as former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt put it - or in the words of France’s Europe minister, not to look to US election results to decide Europe’s fate.

    Answer to every crisis...more and closer EU.

    Well, he is right, isn't he? With the world drifting into protectionist economic and political blocs, of course European countries need to pool their collective strengths. Otherwise Europe will be caught in the whims of a not very friendly USA and an actively malign China, with side dishes of Islamist terrorism and Russian thuggery.
    Oh dear. Richard's gone full federalist.

    No, the answer is to form a global democratic alliance of sovereign nations. The EU just has an ideological boner for forming a single nation, and has done since Charlemagne.

    They need to know their limits.
    I don't know how anyone can look across the pond and think "look what is going wrong in that federation, we need more continental federalism over here".
    Funny how so many Brits obsess about the relations between the Uk and other nations when it is the relations between central and local government where so much is wrong.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Quincel said:

    MrEd said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MrEd said:

    Sorry, becoming a bore on this one but I don’t think you can count AZ for Biden. If that’s the case, the dynamics change.

    Trump gets AZ + NC + AL, he is on 236. Not sure ME-2 but Collins performance will give him hope so let’s say it’s 237.

    Let’s assume he wins PA. That’s 257.

    He then only has to win one of MI or GA.

    You can also bet there is no way he is going to allow Wayne County to report 140K out of 150K ballots for Biden without a serious legal challenge.

    Wayne County haven't reported 140/150 for Biden. That was one batch of mail in ballots - which of course is to be expected to be primarily Biden.
    Primarily Biden is one thing, over 90pc is another. The scale of those Mail in ballots breaking for Biden is not going to go unchallenged.
    They should do, there are loads of instances from loads of states of early voting ballots in cities being massively Biden-favoured. And loads of instances from loads of states of election day ballots in rural districts massively Trump-favoured. Nothing in these results looks suspicious so far.
    It’s not really the point. Trump will point to those margins and claim he was right all along about Mail in fraud and how the election was stolen from him. It is his dream scenario - he blames it on the establishment and his hard core believes him. More to the point, he will seek to challenge it in the courts.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    EPG said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    A huge amount of magnanimity* is needed if Biden does win.

    He will have been bloody lucky, despite the national lead, and he will have to disprove Republican fears about him and the Dems in office if he wants to avoid widespread disorder - particularly given how hard and deep rural areas have gone red. Totally uber red.

    (*yes, I know Trump never did this but you need to expect more from Biden otherwise both parties will descend into an ever more vicious tit-for-tat, and it will fuel the Rep selection of the next candidate as Trump-lite)

    No. You and the rest of the right always want the left to hand over their balls before entry. Not this time.
    If Biden wins he will get in by the skin of his teeth after being endorsed by many, many Republicans.

    If he wins it won't be some sort of sweeping victory by the left or defeat of the right.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited November 2020
    Casino_Royale said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    An increasing number of leading European politicians are using this election as an argument for Europe to “take its destiny into its own hands”, as former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt put it - or in the words of France’s Europe minister, not to look to US election results to decide Europe’s fate.

    Answer to every crisis...more and closer EU.

    Well, he is right, isn't he? With the world drifting into protectionist economic and political blocs, of course European countries need to pool their collective strengths. Otherwise Europe will be caught in the whims of a not very friendly USA and an actively malign China, with side dishes of Islamist terrorism and Russian thuggery.
    Oh dear. Richard's gone full federalist.

    No, the answer is to form a global democratic alliance of sovereign nations. The EU just has an ideological boner for forming a single nation, and has done since Charlemagne.

    They need to know their limits.
    I don't know how anyone can look across the pond and think "look what is going wrong in that federation, we need more continental federalism over here".
    Those driven mad by Brexit.

    Anyway, I really don't want to get into Brexit today. We all have bigger fish to fry.
    So there IS a deal? ;)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    numbertwelve said:

    rottenborough said:

    MI now ≈ 26K to Trump.

    Come on Biden.

    I read that as WI for a second and almost had a heart attack.
    Biden has just expanded his lead a bit in WI.

    CNN has now got with the programme on EV/LV and is doing seriously good analysis.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited November 2020
    One positive of such a close result, hopefully it will put an end to the nonsense of defund the police movement even been entertained....well other than Portland, who upcoming mayoral election is between the current idiot and somebody even more radical.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Trump nudging against 4 on Betfair.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Gallowgate said:

    https://twitter.com/Goodish_Will/status/1323947809343721472?s=20

    LOL!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    edited November 2020
    snip
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    An increasing number of leading European politicians are using this election as an argument for Europe to “take its destiny into its own hands”, as former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt put it - or in the words of France’s Europe minister, not to look to US election results to decide Europe’s fate.

    Answer to every crisis...more and closer EU.

    Well, he is right, isn't he? With the world drifting into protectionist economic and political blocs, of course European countries need to pool their collective strengths. Otherwise Europe will be caught in the whims of a not very friendly USA and an actively malign China, with side dishes of Islamist terrorism and Russian thuggery.
    Oh dear. Richard's gone full federalist.

    No, the answer is to form a global democratic alliance of sovereign nations. The EU just has an ideological boner for forming a single nation, and has done since Charlemagne.

    They need to know their limits.
    Great theory. Unfortunately it requires a global network of sovereign nations to want to join in, and at the moment there are literally zero applicants.
    Look up the D-10.. it should kick-off next year.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    Trump TV is going to be 4 years of how he was robbed by fraudulent votes.
  • DearPBDearPB Posts: 439
    DougSeal said:

    Trump nudging against 4 on Betfair.

    I'm seriously tempted
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    DougSeal said:

    Trump nudging against 4 on Betfair.

    It's absolutely incredible when you think that Biden went out to 5+ in the early hours.

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,796
    edited November 2020
    Anyone know the latest in Dry County? Reported that all the oil's gone and the money's gone, that all the jobs are gone and yet still they're hangin' on...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Trump sliding out towards 3/1.

    Value?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Trump TV is going to be 4 years of how he was robbed by fraudulent votes.

    If he is not in jail, yes.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    DougSeal said:

    Trump nudging against 4 on Betfair.

    My tip giving an hour max on the value was at 11.45am.

    It's only been 35 mins and it's rapidly going..
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    So CNN thought there were 89% of votes in in Wayne County. They spoke to an election official who said there were more like 65%. THIS is what everyone is missing.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Quincel said:

    MrEd said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MrEd said:

    Sorry, becoming a bore on this one but I don’t think you can count AZ for Biden. If that’s the case, the dynamics change.

    Trump gets AZ + NC + AL, he is on 236. Not sure ME-2 but Collins performance will give him hope so let’s say it’s 237.

    Let’s assume he wins PA. That’s 257.

    He then only has to win one of MI or GA.

    You can also bet there is no way he is going to allow Wayne County to report 140K out of 150K ballots for Biden without a serious legal challenge.

    Wayne County haven't reported 140/150 for Biden. That was one batch of mail in ballots - which of course is to be expected to be primarily Biden.
    Primarily Biden is one thing, over 90pc is another. The scale of those Mail in ballots breaking for Biden is not going to go unchallenged.
    They should do, there are loads of instances from loads of states of early voting ballots in cities being massively Biden-favoured. And loads of instances from loads of states of election day ballots in rural districts massively Trump-favoured. Nothing in these results looks suspicious so far.
    Especially in the hopefully unique circumstances where the supporters of one party are considerably more worried about the medical risks of voting in person than those of the other.
  • DearPBDearPB Posts: 439
    DearPB said:

    DougSeal said:

    Trump nudging against 4 on Betfair.

    I'm seriously tempted
    All it takes is a Republican judge in an obscure County to rule out some ballots, and the market panics for a moment, even though it gets overturned the moment a serious person looks at it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Anabobazina said:

    Trump sliding out towards 3/1.

    Value?

    Er no.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    EPG said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    A huge amount of magnanimity* is needed if Biden does win.

    He will have been bloody lucky, despite the national lead, and he will have to disprove Republican fears about him and the Dems in office if he wants to avoid widespread disorder - particularly given how hard and deep rural areas have gone red. Totally uber red.

    (*yes, I know Trump never did this but you need to expect more from Biden otherwise both parties will descend into an ever more vicious tit-for-tat, and it will fuel the Rep selection of the next candidate as Trump-lite)

    No. You and the rest of the right always want the left to hand over their balls before entry. Not this time.
    And this is how nasty cultural divisions persist, ladies & gentlemen, for all our disbenefit.

    It takes courage, yes. It takes leadership, yes. It takes humility, yes.

    Obstinacy only leads down one path.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    alex_ said:

    So CNN thought there were 89% of votes in in Wayne County. They spoke to an election official who said there were more like 65%. THIS is what everyone is missing.

    Yes, this modelling doesn't account for higher turnout does it?

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Heading towards crossover in Michigan

    https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1323963582850207745?s=20

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    edited November 2020
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    One positive of such a close result, hopefully it will put an end to the nonsense of defund the police movement even been entertained....well other than Portland, who upcoming mayoral election is between the current idiot and somebody even more radical.

    They put up a centrist and he got a tight race, that isn't going to stop leftists from thinking leftism is more of a winning strategy, quite the opposite.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    @MrEd

    2016 Wayne County
    Clinton 519k
    Trump 229k

    2020 Wayne County so far (inc that 150k)
    Biden 414k
    Trump 195k

    There's nothing dodgy whatsoever with the Democrats winning 140k of a batch of 150k there. There ought to be many, many more Biden votes expected still to come from Wayne County just to catch up with 2016 turnout.
  • DearPBDearPB Posts: 439
    Benpointer said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Trump sliding out towards 3/1.

    Value?

    Er no.
    Yes definitely !!
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    The evidence is now becoming clear that Biden will win relatively soon. I wasn't going to bet this time, after the shocks of 2016, but I did change my mind in the middle of the night when the odds were quite favourable.
This discussion has been closed.