He will be raging about being a one term President, bad for his ego. So, he will move on to the next grift, he’s done politics.
Trump has a couple of times floated leaving the US if he lost. Getting an endorsement from the loser in Moscow is not going to be one many in the GOP will want.
Trump campaign staff on FOX making it clear the result (providing Biden wins) is going to court. 'The president will have won legitimately'. So popcorn time , no concession from Trump til 2023 I guess
The question is do the GOP have their own version of the Tories "Men in grey suits" to go and visit Trump with the proverbial revolver and glass of whisky?
Win or lose Trump has won more votes now than any Republican presidential candidate in history and the highest voteshare for any Republican candidate since Bush in 2004, it is his party for the foreseeable future so the party top brass cannot tell him anything, even if he loses and decides not to run again he will effectively be Kingmaker in deciding the party's nominee in 2024 probably either Pence or one of his kids
Trump remains an important player if he loses as it's clear he's beaten expectations and hasn't been humiliated. His endorsement will matter for Senate and House candidates, and he'll have a say in 2024 - perhaps even exploring standing himself.
I seriously question how important, though. The world does move on remarkably quickly, and 2024 is a long way away. Ultimately, if Trump loses, he's a prolific tweeter with a lot of personal legal and financial problems to take care of. He's no longer making Presidential proclamations, introducing legislation, appointing key people, meeting world leaders and so on. And if he isn't on the ballot in 2024, he's simply less important. Obama was a good person for Biden to have at rallies, and made some news, but in the end people appreciate he was not the candidate and his significance reflects that.
If he's not the candidate, Trump won't do anything to help GOP candidates. It's not what pathological narcissists do.
If he does lose, Trump will surely focus on using his Twitter feed to promote his delightful brood into the GOP running. The Trumps will become the Kennedys of the right.
Trump campaign staff on FOX making it clear the result (providing Biden wins) is going to court. 'The president will have won legitimately'. So popcorn time , no concession from Trump til 2023 I guess
The question is do the GOP have their own version of the Tories "Men in grey suits" to go and visit Trump with the proverbial revolver and glass of whisky?
Win or lose Trump has won more votes now than any Republican presidential candidate in history and the highest voteshare for any Republican candidate since Bush in 2004, it is his party for the foreseeable future so the party top brass cannot tell him anything, even if he loses and decides not to run again he will effectively be Kingmaker in deciding the party's nominee in 2024 probably either Pence or one of his kids
Trump remains an important player if he loses as it's clear he's beaten expectations and hasn't been humiliated. His endorsement will matter for Senate and House candidates, and he'll have a say in 2024 - perhaps even exploring standing himself.
I seriously question how important, though. The world does move on remarkably quickly, and 2024 is a long way away. Ultimately, if Trump loses, he's a prolific tweeter with a lot of personal legal and financial problems to take care of. He's no longer making Presidential proclamations, introducing legislation, appointing key people, meeting world leaders and so on. And if he isn't on the ballot in 2024, he's simply less important. Obama was a good person for Biden to have at rallies, and made some news, but in the end people appreciate he was not the candidate and his significance reflects that.
If he's not the candidate, Trump won't do anything to help GOP candidates. It's not what pathological narcissists do.
He will be raging about being a one term President, bad for his ego. So, he will move on to the next grift, he’s done politics.
If Biden-Harris wins and proves unpopular constitutionally he would be eligible to run again in 2024 and no older than Biden is now, Grover Cleveland failed to be re elected narrowly and came back to win a second term 4 years later
If you were going to steal this election for the Dems, by finding lots of postal votes stuffed down the sofa, you couldn't do it in this scenario without grossly inflating the turnout could you?
There was much annoying pro-Trump trolling early this morning, but I think you just took the prize.
Thanks. I am just trying to get it straight in my head. IF this happened, it would show as significantly elevated turnout in the 'late Biden surge' states that counted their postal ballots last, and turnout being as predicted, or at least significantly lower, in the 'Trump surge' states where they were counted first.
At the end of the day, this is going to the SC. I’ve been told on good authority that the reason the Rs rushed through Barrett was not because they thought they would lose the Senate but that they were “terrified” (and this is their word, not mine) that the Democrats would continue to find postal ballots until the Ds won in the states. It’s essentially what happened in several of the CA House seats in 2018 (it was never proved but ballot harvesting was suspected).
This argument came from a very well connected, establishment Republican who is anti-Trump
Even if everything was above board, it doesn't look good from a Trump supporter's perspective.
Most states count the postal votes first and on the day votes last, except the Democrat run marginal states where they do it in reverse, so they know exactly how many votes they need to win each state (and also by then which states they need to win).
Surely the law in Pennsylvania preventing mail-in ballots from being counted or processed earlier was passed by the Republican-controlled Pennsylvania state assembly? (for example) I've certainly heard more push from Dems than Rs for work on postal votes to begin early, precisely to avoid Trump trying to claim victory on the night.
Fair enough, although Trump might win PA anyway.
If the Dems wanted early counting, why didn't they do it in states they control?
That was because Milwaukee declared almost all their mail in vote in one go.
And the Dems got 100% of that? You can see the Dems gain 200k and the Reps get no extra votes at all.
Almost yes, because Milwaukee is heavily Democrat and GOP voters were told to vote on the day. If you look at Milwaukee vs 2016 then there's clearly nothing out of the usual going on.
Well I can believe 85%-15% I suppose...but 100%-0% all at once?
That just seems impossible and it happened in MI too
When people talked about it here it was 140k votes for Biden out of 150k. So Trump did receive 10k votes in that declaration. People staring at graphs afterwards are being silly.
Trump campaign staff on FOX making it clear the result (providing Biden wins) is going to court. 'The president will have won legitimately'. So popcorn time , no concession from Trump til 2023 I guess
The question is do the GOP have their own version of the Tories "Men in grey suits" to go and visit Trump with the proverbial revolver and glass of whisky?
Win or lose Trump has won more votes now than any Republican presidential candidate in history and the highest voteshare for any Republican candidate since Bush in 2004, it is his party for the foreseeable future so the party top brass cannot tell him anything, even if he loses and decides not to run again he will effectively be Kingmaker in deciding the party's nominee in 2024 probably either Pence or one of his kids
I don't know about that. Americans aren't that kind to election losers and many of his voters hate the democrats much more than they like Trump. Quite likely someone similar to Trump will emerge in 2024 but not the man himself. It'll be because the party has fundamentally changed.
If Trump's behaviour wasn't so appalling he would have won this election.
He will be raging about being a one term President, bad for his ego. So, he will move on to the next grift, he’s done politics.
Trump has a couple of times floated leaving the US if he lost. Getting an endorsement from the loser in Moscow is not going to be one many in the GOP will want.
Surely if he was, he goes to somewhere like the Caribbean. Lovely weather, all those golf courses.
Trump campaign staff on FOX making it clear the result (providing Biden wins) is going to court. 'The president will have won legitimately'. So popcorn time , no concession from Trump til 2023 I guess
The question is do the GOP have their own version of the Tories "Men in grey suits" to go and visit Trump with the proverbial revolver and glass of whisky?
Win or lose Trump has won more votes now than any Republican presidential candidate in history and the highest voteshare for any Republican candidate since Bush in 2004, it is his party for the foreseeable future so the party top brass cannot tell him anything, even if he loses and decides not to run again he will effectively be Kingmaker in deciding the party's nominee in 2024 probably either Pence or one of his kids
Trump remains an important player if he loses as it's clear he's beaten expectations and hasn't been humiliated. His endorsement will matter for Senate and House candidates, and he'll have a say in 2024 - perhaps even exploring standing himself.
I seriously question how important, though. The world does move on remarkably quickly, and 2024 is a long way away. Ultimately, if Trump loses, he's a prolific tweeter with a lot of personal legal and financial problems to take care of. He's no longer making Presidential proclamations, introducing legislation, appointing key people, meeting world leaders and so on. And if he isn't on the ballot in 2024, he's simply less important. Obama was a good person for Biden to have at rallies, and made some news, but in the end people appreciate he was not the candidate and his significance reflects that.
If he's not the candidate, Trump won't do anything to help GOP candidates. It's not what pathological narcissists do.
If he does lose, Trump will surely focus on using his Twitter feed to promote his delightful brood into the GOP running. The Trumps will become the Kennedys of the right.
That was the Bushes but for the time being it could well be the Trumps now yes
Its possible, Biden looks good for 271 as is. Winning PA or GA is certainly possible though i suspect he will just lose both. But either takes him over 280. The only fly in the ointment I can see to Biden becoming president now is NV, which is very very close, however the only votes still to be counted there are postal and absentee votes which have heavily favoured Dems there (and in most other states) so 271-307 i think is your range for a Biden Win, but my guess is the lower end. Though if Trump wins PA and loses GA I will have hit my 291 forecast!
Trump campaign staff on FOX making it clear the result (providing Biden wins) is going to court. 'The president will have won legitimately'. So popcorn time , no concession from Trump til 2023 I guess
The question is do the GOP have their own version of the Tories "Men in grey suits" to go and visit Trump with the proverbial revolver and glass of whisky?
Win or lose Trump has won more votes now than any Republican presidential candidate in history and the highest voteshare for any Republican candidate since Bush in 2004, it is his party for the foreseeable future so the party top brass cannot tell him anything, even if he loses and decides not to run again he will effectively be Kingmaker in deciding the party's nominee in 2024 probably either Pence or one of his kids
Trump remains an important player if he loses as it's clear he's beaten expectations and hasn't been humiliated. His endorsement will matter for Senate and House candidates, and he'll have a say in 2024 - perhaps even exploring standing himself.
I seriously question how important, though. The world does move on remarkably quickly, and 2024 is a long way away. Ultimately, if Trump loses, he's a prolific tweeter with a lot of personal legal and financial problems to take care of. He's no longer making Presidential proclamations, introducing legislation, appointing key people, meeting world leaders and so on. And if he isn't on the ballot in 2024, he's simply less important. Obama was a good person for Biden to have at rallies, and made some news, but in the end people appreciate he was not the candidate and his significance reflects that.
If he's not the candidate, Trump won't do anything to help GOP candidates. It's not what pathological narcissists do.
If he does lose, Trump will surely focus on using his Twitter feed to promote his delightful brood into the GOP running. The Trumps will become the Kennedys of the right.
As far as I can see, the only one of his brood he really cares about is Ivanka. For the others, he seems only to like them to the extent they are loyal and helpful to him.
Biden has a reasonably credible route to 300, to be honest. He has 270 blue (called) or light blue (leading but tight) on the maps at this exact moment. Pennsylvania is very uncertain but would be 20. North Carolina (15) and Georgia (16) are pink but still scope for him, and that would be over 300.
I hasten to add he also has a credible route to under 270.
Huge IF, but it isn't pure vanity. If he has a one or two state cushion over 270, the whole debate over legal challenges is basically irrelevant as Trump is then left needing multiple snookers with few balls on the table.
If you were going to steal this election for the Dems, by finding lots of postal votes stuffed down the sofa, you couldn't do it in this scenario without grossly inflating the turnout could you?
There was much annoying pro-Trump trolling early this morning, but I think you just took the prize.
Thanks. I am just trying to get it straight in my head. IF this happened, it would show as significantly elevated turnout in the 'late Biden surge' states that counted their postal ballots last, and turnout being as predicted, or at least significantly lower, in the 'Trump surge' states where they were counted first.
At the end of the day, this is going to the SC. I’ve been told on good authority that the reason the Rs rushed through Barrett was not because they thought they would lose the Senate but that they were “terrified” (and this is their word, not mine) that the Democrats would continue to find postal ballots until the Ds won in the states. It’s essentially what happened in several of the CA House seats in 2018 (it was never proved but ballot harvesting was suspected).
This argument came from a very well connected, establishment Republican who is anti-Trump
Even if everything was above board, it doesn't look good from a Trump supporter's perspective.
Most states count the postal votes first and on the day votes last, except the Democrat run marginal states where they do it in reverse, so they know exactly how many votes they need to win each state (and also by then which states they need to win).
Surely the law in Pennsylvania preventing mail-in ballots from being counted or processed earlier was passed by the Republican-controlled Pennsylvania state assembly? (for example) I've certainly heard more push from Dems than Rs for work on postal votes to begin early, precisely to avoid Trump trying to claim victory on the night.
Fair enough, although Trump might win PA anyway.
If the Dems wanted early counting, why didn't they do it in states they control?
That was because Milwaukee declared almost all their mail in vote in one go.
And the Dems got 100% of that? You can see the Dems gain 200k and the Reps get no extra votes at all.
Almost yes, because Milwaukee is heavily Democrat and GOP voters were told to vote on the day. If you look at Milwaukee vs 2016 then there's clearly nothing out of the usual going on.
Well I can believe 85%-15% I suppose...but 100%-0% all at once?
That just seems impossible and it happened in MI too
When people talked about it here it was 140k votes for Biden out of 150k. So Trump did receive 10k votes in that declaration. People staring at graphs afterwards are being silly.
Trump campaign staff on FOX making it clear the result (providing Biden wins) is going to court. 'The president will have won legitimately'. So popcorn time , no concession from Trump til 2023 I guess
The question is do the GOP have their own version of the Tories "Men in grey suits" to go and visit Trump with the proverbial revolver and glass of whisky?
Win or lose Trump has won more votes now than any Republican presidential candidate in history and the highest voteshare for any Republican candidate since Bush in 2004, it is his party for the foreseeable future so the party top brass cannot tell him anything, even if he loses and decides not to run again he will effectively be Kingmaker in deciding the party's nominee in 2024 probably either Pence or one of his kids
I don't know about that. Americans aren't that kind to election losers and many of his voters hate the democrats much more than they like Trump. Quite likely someone similar to Trump will emerge in 2024 but not the man himself. It'll be because the party has fundamentally changed.
If Trump's behaviour wasn't so appalling he would have won this election.
No COVID and a slightly more restrained Trump, and he would have won. He would have pointed to the economy over and over and over again, and say you want to risk that? There would have also been a lot more focus on how left wing (by American standards) Biden / Harris platform is, instead really it all got clouded out by COVID. Just that getting rid of the oil industry slip near the end.
Trump campaign staff on FOX making it clear the result (providing Biden wins) is going to court. 'The president will have won legitimately'. So popcorn time , no concession from Trump til 2023 I guess
The question is do the GOP have their own version of the Tories "Men in grey suits" to go and visit Trump with the proverbial revolver and glass of whisky?
Win or lose Trump has won more votes now than any Republican presidential candidate in history and the highest voteshare for any Republican candidate since Bush in 2004, it is his party for the foreseeable future so the party top brass cannot tell him anything, even if he loses and decides not to run again he will effectively be Kingmaker in deciding the party's nominee in 2024 probably either Pence or one of his kids
Trump remains an important player if he loses as it's clear he's beaten expectations and hasn't been humiliated. His endorsement will matter for Senate and House candidates, and he'll have a say in 2024 - perhaps even exploring standing himself.
I seriously question how important, though. The world does move on remarkably quickly, and 2024 is a long way away. Ultimately, if Trump loses, he's a prolific tweeter with a lot of personal legal and financial problems to take care of. He's no longer making Presidential proclamations, introducing legislation, appointing key people, meeting world leaders and so on. And if he isn't on the ballot in 2024, he's simply less important. Obama was a good person for Biden to have at rallies, and made some news, but in the end people appreciate he was not the candidate and his significance reflects that.
If he's not the candidate, Trump won't do anything to help GOP candidates. It's not what pathological narcissists do.
If he does lose, Trump will surely focus on using his Twitter feed to promote his delightful brood into the GOP running. The Trumps will become the Kennedys of the right.
I suspect a few of them will be wearing orange suits.
Its possible, Biden looks good for 271 as is. Winning PA or GA is certainly possible though i suspect he will just lose both. But either takes him over 280. The only fly in the ointment I can see to Biden becoming president now is NV, which is very very close, however the only votes still to be counted there are postal and absentee votes which have heavily favoured Dems there (and in most other states) so 271-307 i think is your range for a Biden Win, but my guess is the lower end. Though if Trump wins PA and loses GA I will have hit my 291 forecast!
He will be raging about being a one term President, bad for his ego. So, he will move on to the next grift, he’s done politics.
Trump has a couple of times floated leaving the US if he lost. Getting an endorsement from the loser in Moscow is not going to be one many in the GOP will want.
Surely if he was, he goes to somewhere like the Caribbean. Lovely weather, all those golf courses.
Trump campaign staff on FOX making it clear the result (providing Biden wins) is going to court. 'The president will have won legitimately'. So popcorn time , no concession from Trump til 2023 I guess
The question is do the GOP have their own version of the Tories "Men in grey suits" to go and visit Trump with the proverbial revolver and glass of whisky?
Win or lose Trump has won more votes now than any Republican presidential candidate in history and the highest voteshare for any Republican candidate since Bush in 2004, it is his party for the foreseeable future so the party top brass cannot tell him anything, even if he loses and decides not to run again he will effectively be Kingmaker in deciding the party's nominee in 2024 probably either Pence or one of his kids
Trump remains an important player if he loses as it's clear he's beaten expectations and hasn't been humiliated. His endorsement will matter for Senate and House candidates, and he'll have a say in 2024 - perhaps even exploring standing himself.
I seriously question how important, though. The world does move on remarkably quickly, and 2024 is a long way away. Ultimately, if Trump loses, he's a prolific tweeter with a lot of personal legal and financial problems to take care of. He's no longer making Presidential proclamations, introducing legislation, appointing key people, meeting world leaders and so on. And if he isn't on the ballot in 2024, he's simply less important. Obama was a good person for Biden to have at rallies, and made some news, but in the end people appreciate he was not the candidate and his significance reflects that.
If he's not the candidate, Trump won't do anything to help GOP candidates. It's not what pathological narcissists do.
He will be raging about being a one term President, bad for his ego. So, he will move on to the next grift, he’s done politics.
Trump TV....its all the stuff he loves about being POTUS, with none of the "BORRRRRING" stuff. He gets to spout nonsense to the faithful, gets his ego stroked every night by the fans, without having any of all those boring meeting about covid or North Korea and alike.
I agree. Further, I have a sneaking suspicion that he really wants to go back to TV. I had this idea last night that he might resign in a huff and let Pence serve out the rest of his term. I suspect that might have been his gaem plan in 2016. The grievance narrative about the "stolen" election might help with viewing figures.
Trump campaign staff on FOX making it clear the result (providing Biden wins) is going to court. 'The president will have won legitimately'. So popcorn time , no concession from Trump til 2023 I guess
The question is do the GOP have their own version of the Tories "Men in grey suits" to go and visit Trump with the proverbial revolver and glass of whisky?
Win or lose Trump has won more votes now than any Republican presidential candidate in history and the highest voteshare for any Republican candidate since Bush in 2004, it is his party for the foreseeable future so the party top brass cannot tell him anything, even if he loses and decides not to run again he will effectively be Kingmaker in deciding the party's nominee in 2024 probably either Pence or one of his kids
Once he's lost, just watch how fast they ditch him!
Trump campaign staff on FOX making it clear the result (providing Biden wins) is going to court. 'The president will have won legitimately'. So popcorn time , no concession from Trump til 2023 I guess
The question is do the GOP have their own version of the Tories "Men in grey suits" to go and visit Trump with the proverbial revolver and glass of whisky?
Win or lose Trump has won more votes now than any Republican presidential candidate in history and the highest voteshare for any Republican candidate since Bush in 2004, it is his party for the foreseeable future so the party top brass cannot tell him anything, even if he loses and decides not to run again he will effectively be Kingmaker in deciding the party's nominee in 2024 probably either Pence or one of his kids
Trump remains an important player if he loses as it's clear he's beaten expectations and hasn't been humiliated. His endorsement will matter for Senate and House candidates, and he'll have a say in 2024 - perhaps even exploring standing himself.
I seriously question how important, though. The world does move on remarkably quickly, and 2024 is a long way away. Ultimately, if Trump loses, he's a prolific tweeter with a lot of personal legal and financial problems to take care of. He's no longer making Presidential proclamations, introducing legislation, appointing key people, meeting world leaders and so on. And if he isn't on the ballot in 2024, he's simply less important. Obama was a good person for Biden to have at rallies, and made some news, but in the end people appreciate he was not the candidate and his significance reflects that.
If he's not the candidate, Trump won't do anything to help GOP candidates. It's not what pathological narcissists do.
I can see him literally selling his endorsement due to his financial issues.
I can also see a situation where it'd be handy if the person in a position to dish out Presidential pardons owed him a favour.
Its possible, Biden looks good for 271 as is. Winning PA or GA is certainly possible though i suspect he will just lose both. But either takes him over 280. The only fly in the ointment I can see to Biden becoming president now is NV, which is very very close, however the only votes still to be counted there are postal and absentee votes which have heavily favoured Dems there (and in most other states) so 271-307 i think is your range for a Biden Win, but my guess is the lower end. Though if Trump wins PA and loses GA I will have hit my 291 forecast!
If you were going to steal this election for the Dems, by finding lots of postal votes stuffed down the sofa, you couldn't do it in this scenario without grossly inflating the turnout could you?
There was much annoying pro-Trump trolling early this morning, but I think you just took the prize.
Thanks. I am just trying to get it straight in my head. IF this happened, it would show as significantly elevated turnout in the 'late Biden surge' states that counted their postal ballots last, and turnout being as predicted, or at least significantly lower, in the 'Trump surge' states where they were counted first.
At the end of the day, this is going to the SC. I’ve been told on good authority that the reason the Rs rushed through Barrett was not because they thought they would lose the Senate but that they were “terrified” (and this is their word, not mine) that the Democrats would continue to find postal ballots until the Ds won in the states. It’s essentially what happened in several of the CA House seats in 2018 (it was never proved but ballot harvesting was suspected).
This argument came from a very well connected, establishment Republican who is anti-Trump
Even if everything was above board, it doesn't look good from a Trump supporter's perspective.
Most states count the postal votes first and on the day votes last, except the Democrat run marginal states where they do it in reverse, so they know exactly how many votes they need to win each state (and also by then which states they need to win).
Surely the law in Pennsylvania preventing mail-in ballots from being counted or processed earlier was passed by the Republican-controlled Pennsylvania state assembly? (for example) I've certainly heard more push from Dems than Rs for work on postal votes to begin early, precisely to avoid Trump trying to claim victory on the night.
Fair enough, although Trump might win PA anyway.
If the Dems wanted early counting, why didn't they do it in states they control?
That was because Milwaukee declared almost all their mail in vote in one go.
And the Dems got 100% of that? You can see the Dems gain 200k and the Reps get no extra votes at all.
Almost yes, because Milwaukee is heavily Democrat and GOP voters were told to vote on the day. If you look at Milwaukee vs 2016 then there's clearly nothing out of the usual going on.
Well I can believe 85%-15% I suppose...but 100%-0% all at once?
That just seems impossible and it happened in MI too
When people talked about it here it was 140k votes for Biden out of 150k. So Trump did receive 10k votes in that declaration. People staring at graphs afterwards are being silly.
I mean, 100% of the vote would have been just too obvious.
Trump campaign staff on FOX making it clear the result (providing Biden wins) is going to court. 'The president will have won legitimately'. So popcorn time , no concession from Trump til 2023 I guess
The question is do the GOP have their own version of the Tories "Men in grey suits" to go and visit Trump with the proverbial revolver and glass of whisky?
Win or lose Trump has won more votes now than any Republican presidential candidate in history and the highest voteshare for any Republican candidate since Bush in 2004, it is his party for the foreseeable future so the party top brass cannot tell him anything, even if he loses and decides not to run again he will effectively be Kingmaker in deciding the party's nominee in 2024 probably either Pence or one of his kids
I don't know about that. Americans aren't that kind to election losers and many of his voters hate the democrats much more than they like Trump. Quite likely someone similar to Trump will emerge in 2024 but not the man himself. It'll be because the party has fundamentally changed.
If Trump's behaviour wasn't so appalling he would have won this election.
No COVID and a slightly more restrained Trump, and he would have won. He would have pointed to the economy over and over and over again, and say you want to risk that? There would have also been a lot more focus on how left wing (by American standards) Biden / Harris platform is, instead really it all got clouded out by COVID. Just that getting rid of the oil industry slip near the end.
Agreed. Sans COVID it would have been a Trump win. In addition to the economy, I think I underestimated how open suburbanites were to Trump's law and order/defund the police schtick.
Biden has a reasonably credible route to 300, to be honest. He has 270 blue (called) or light blue (leading but tight) on the maps at this exact moment. Pennsylvania is very uncertain but would be 20. North Carolina (15) and Georgia (16) are pink but still scope for him, and that would be over 300.
I hasten to add he also has a credible route to under 270.
Huge IF, but it isn't pure vanity. If he has a one or two state cushion over 270, the whole debate over legal challenges is basically irrelevant as Trump is then left needing multiple snookers with few balls on the table.
Pretty sure NC is a stretch for Biden, GA is going to be very close. Didnt Biden win the ME2 vote so does that make it 270 or 271 ?
Trump campaign staff on FOX making it clear the result (providing Biden wins) is going to court. 'The president will have won legitimately'. So popcorn time , no concession from Trump til 2023 I guess
The question is do the GOP have their own version of the Tories "Men in grey suits" to go and visit Trump with the proverbial revolver and glass of whisky?
Win or lose Trump has won more votes now than any Republican presidential candidate in history and the highest voteshare for any Republican candidate since Bush in 2004, it is his party for the foreseeable future so the party top brass cannot tell him anything, even if he loses and decides not to run again he will effectively be Kingmaker in deciding the party's nominee in 2024 probably either Pence or one of his kids
Once he's lost, just watch how fast they ditch him!
Who are they? It is Republican primary voters who pick their nominee not Congressmen otherwise Trump would never have become nominee in the first place
Interestingly I think I'm right in saying the GOP Senators have outperformed Trump.
Which rather scotches the rather breathless suggestion of HYUFD that Trump will be the candidate again in 2024. Not a chance.
If they did it was only because they got Trump voters who turned out to vote for them as well as the traditional Republican vote.
In 2018 when Trump was not on the ballot they were trounced
I'm going to call a truce in the "Trafalgar" wars thusly. When Trump is on the ballot their record is good (there are now statistics to back that up in more than one election). When he's not its bad (there are statistics to back that up too). They have a feeling for the Trump "effect" - whether that's really reluctance to tell a pollster something I am not sure about, but they have a feel for it that is for sure.
They had Trump by 2.5 in Arizona, by 2.1 in NC, 2.3 in Nevada, 2.5 in Michigan.
Trump campaign staff on FOX making it clear the result (providing Biden wins) is going to court. 'The president will have won legitimately'. So popcorn time , no concession from Trump til 2023 I guess
The question is do the GOP have their own version of the Tories "Men in grey suits" to go and visit Trump with the proverbial revolver and glass of whisky?
Win or lose Trump has won more votes now than any Republican presidential candidate in history and the highest voteshare for any Republican candidate since Bush in 2004, it is his party for the foreseeable future so the party top brass cannot tell him anything, even if he loses and decides not to run again he will effectively be Kingmaker in deciding the party's nominee in 2024 probably either Pence or one of his kids
Won't be Pence if he loses as VP. He will be a candidate but never get momentum.
I have been to the US countless times. The only thing I really know about it is that it is a land of institutionalised cruelty and of a million everyday, personal kindnesses. It is the most foreign country I have ever visited. It is not wise to extrapolate from there to here.
I have been to the US countless times. The only thing I really know about it is that it is a land of institutionalised cruelty and of a million everyday, personal kindnesses. It is the most foreign country I have ever visited. It is not wise to extrapolate from there to here.
Also not wise to even extrapolate across the whole of the US. Each state is very different.
Trump campaign staff on FOX making it clear the result (providing Biden wins) is going to court. 'The president will have won legitimately'. So popcorn time , no concession from Trump til 2023 I guess
The question is do the GOP have their own version of the Tories "Men in grey suits" to go and visit Trump with the proverbial revolver and glass of whisky?
Win or lose Trump has won more votes now than any Republican presidential candidate in history and the highest voteshare for any Republican candidate since Bush in 2004, it is his party for the foreseeable future so the party top brass cannot tell him anything, even if he loses and decides not to run again he will effectively be Kingmaker in deciding the party's nominee in 2024 probably either Pence or one of his kids
That sounds a bit like "winning the argument but losing the election", copyright Jeremy Corbyn.
The harsh truth (probably) is that he's a one term president with legal troubles.
Corbyn was trounced in 2019 even if not in 2017 and lost 2 million votes from 2017 to 2019, Trump has got even more votes now than he did in 2016 and if he does lose it will be in one of the closest US elections in history
But nevertheless a one term president. Not a badge of honour in US politics. And we will see about your last point. It could quite easily end up being a clear blue water margin in both PV and EC. In which case, not that close at all, let alone one of the closest ever.
Hey but regardless of the final outcome, the "feel" of the election as experienced by me in real time was much closer to your call than to mine. So well done for that. Not quite the glory but no egg on face whatsoever. Polls, schmolls.
Dems @ 4.3 in North Carolina is worth a shout but DYOR. Big gamble.
Just had a nibble at 4.9
This is very much value bet territory. There is a slight amount of ambiguity about how many postal are left but if it is the full 200,000 then I think Biden has it.
I am sure FiveThirtyEight will be given stick for their predictions of Biden having a 90% chance. But in some sense this has been vindicated - Biden looks like he has won despite a polling error similar to Clinton (possibly bigger in FL). His 90% chance captures this significant additional robustness to polling error
The polling was wrong enough, in enough places, that their forecast was similarly off-kilter.
They also gave the Democrats a 3/4 chance of winning the Senate.
The YouGov MRP was pretty badly wrong too. It will be interesting to see whether these were wrong mainly due to relative turnout numbers, or support within certain demographics.
Interestingly I think I'm right in saying the GOP Senators have outperformed Trump.
Which rather scotches the rather breathless suggestion of HYUFD that Trump will be the candidate again in 2024. Not a chance.
If they did it was only because they got Trump voters who turned out to vote for them as well as the traditional Republican vote.
In 2018 when Trump was not on the ballot they were trounced
I'm going to call a truce in the "Trafalgar" wars thusly. When Trump is on the ballot their record is good (there are now statistics to back that up in more than one election). When he's not its bad (there are statistics to back that up too). They have a feeling for the Trump "effect" - whether that's really reluctance to tell a pollster something I am not sure about, but they have a feel for it that is for sure.
They had Trump by 2.5 in Arizona, by 2.1 in NC, 2.3 in Nevada, 2.5 in Michigan.
I've just negotiated a peace treaty in a rather divisive dispute! Don't tear it up before the ink is dry.
Trump campaign staff on FOX making it clear the result (providing Biden wins) is going to court. 'The president will have won legitimately'. So popcorn time , no concession from Trump til 2023 I guess
The question is do the GOP have their own version of the Tories "Men in grey suits" to go and visit Trump with the proverbial revolver and glass of whisky?
Win or lose Trump has won more votes now than any Republican presidential candidate in history and the highest voteshare for any Republican candidate since Bush in 2004, it is his party for the foreseeable future so the party top brass cannot tell him anything, even if he loses and decides not to run again he will effectively be Kingmaker in deciding the party's nominee in 2024 probably either Pence or one of his kids
Trump remains an important player if he loses as it's clear he's beaten expectations and hasn't been humiliated. His endorsement will matter for Senate and House candidates, and he'll have a say in 2024 - perhaps even exploring standing himself.
I seriously question how important, though. The world does move on remarkably quickly, and 2024 is a long way away. Ultimately, if Trump loses, he's a prolific tweeter with a lot of personal legal and financial problems to take care of. He's no longer making Presidential proclamations, introducing legislation, appointing key people, meeting world leaders and so on. And if he isn't on the ballot in 2024, he's simply less important. Obama was a good person for Biden to have at rallies, and made some news, but in the end people appreciate he was not the candidate and his significance reflects that.
If he's not the candidate, Trump won't do anything to help GOP candidates. It's not what pathological narcissists do.
He will be raging about being a one term President, bad for his ego. So, he will move on to the next grift, he’s done politics.
Trump TV....its all the stuff he loves about being POTUS, with none of the "BORRRRRING" stuff. He gets to spout nonsense to the faithful, gets his ego stroked every night by the fans, without having any of all those boring meeting about covid or North Korea and alike.
I agree. Further, I have a sneaking suspicion that he really wants to go back to TV. I had this idea last night that he might resign in a huff and let Pence serve out the rest of his term. I suspect that might have been his gaem plan in 2016. The grievance narrative about the "stolen" election might help with viewing figures.
What about social media? He could set up his own version of Twitter, with tweets becoming known as trumps.
Interestingly I think I'm right in saying the GOP Senators have outperformed Trump.
Which rather scotches the rather breathless suggestion of HYUFD that Trump will be the candidate again in 2024. Not a chance.
If they did it was only because they got Trump voters who turned out to vote for them as well as the traditional Republican vote.
In 2018 when Trump was not on the ballot they were trounced
I'm going to call a truce in the "Trafalgar" wars thusly. When Trump is on the ballot their record is good (there are now statistics to back that up in more than one election). When he's not its bad (there are statistics to back that up too). They have a feeling for the Trump "effect" - whether that's really reluctance to tell a pollster something I am not sure about, but they have a feel for it that is for sure.
They had Trump by 2.5 in Arizona, by 2.1 in NC, 2.3 in Nevada, 2.5 in Michigan.
I've just negotiated a peace treaty in a rather divisive dispute! Don't tear it up before the ink is dry.
Also, as we discussed in arguing against HYUFD's promotion of Trafalgar, the error is not binary in win/lose terms, but in how close to the actual result. Are those predictions above reflective of a greater error than pollsters calling MI by 10+, for example?
I am sure FiveThirtyEight will be given stick for their predictions of Biden having a 90% chance. But in some sense this has been vindicated - Biden looks like he has won despite a polling error similar to Clinton (possibly bigger in FL). His 90% chance captures this significant additional robustness to polling error
The polling was wrong enough, in enough places, that their forecast was similarly off-kilter.
They also gave the Democrats a 3/4 chance of winning the Senate.
The YouGov MRP was pretty badly wrong too. It will be interesting to see whether these were wrong mainly due to relative turnout numbers, or support within certain demographics.
Trump campaign staff on FOX making it clear the result (providing Biden wins) is going to court. 'The president will have won legitimately'. So popcorn time , no concession from Trump til 2023 I guess
The question is do the GOP have their own version of the Tories "Men in grey suits" to go and visit Trump with the proverbial revolver and glass of whisky?
Win or lose Trump has won more votes now than any Republican presidential candidate in history and the highest voteshare for any Republican candidate since Bush in 2004, it is his party for the foreseeable future so the party top brass cannot tell him anything, even if he loses and decides not to run again he will effectively be Kingmaker in deciding the party's nominee in 2024 probably either Pence or one of his kids
Trump remains an important player if he loses as it's clear he's beaten expectations and hasn't been humiliated. His endorsement will matter for Senate and House candidates, and he'll have a say in 2024 - perhaps even exploring standing himself.
I seriously question how important, though. The world does move on remarkably quickly, and 2024 is a long way away. Ultimately, if Trump loses, he's a prolific tweeter with a lot of personal legal and financial problems to take care of. He's no longer making Presidential proclamations, introducing legislation, appointing key people, meeting world leaders and so on. And if he isn't on the ballot in 2024, he's simply less important. Obama was a good person for Biden to have at rallies, and made some news, but in the end people appreciate he was not the candidate and his significance reflects that.
If he's not the candidate, Trump won't do anything to help GOP candidates. It's not what pathological narcissists do.
He will be raging about being a one term President, bad for his ego. So, he will move on to the next grift, he’s done politics.
Trump TV....its all the stuff he loves about being POTUS, with none of the "BORRRRRING" stuff. He gets to spout nonsense to the faithful, gets his ego stroked every night by the fans, without having any of all those boring meeting about covid or North Korea and alike.
I agree. Further, I have a sneaking suspicion that he really wants to go back to TV. I had this idea last night that he might resign in a huff and let Pence serve out the rest of his term. I suspect that might have been his gaem plan in 2016. The grievance narrative about the "stolen" election might help with viewing figures.
What about social media? He could set up his own version of Twitter, with tweets becoming known as trumps.
I wonder if twitter will try and de-person him? I doubt he is going to tone down the fake claims. What saves him at the moment is they can't ban the leader of the free world.
Trump campaign staff on FOX making it clear the result (providing Biden wins) is going to court. 'The president will have won legitimately'. So popcorn time , no concession from Trump til 2023 I guess
The question is do the GOP have their own version of the Tories "Men in grey suits" to go and visit Trump with the proverbial revolver and glass of whisky?
Win or lose Trump has won more votes now than any Republican presidential candidate in history and the highest voteshare for any Republican candidate since Bush in 2004, it is his party for the foreseeable future so the party top brass cannot tell him anything, even if he loses and decides not to run again he will effectively be Kingmaker in deciding the party's nominee in 2024 probably either Pence or one of his kids
Trump remains an important player if he loses as it's clear he's beaten expectations and hasn't been humiliated. His endorsement will matter for Senate and House candidates, and he'll have a say in 2024 - perhaps even exploring standing himself.
I seriously question how important, though. The world does move on remarkably quickly, and 2024 is a long way away. Ultimately, if Trump loses, he's a prolific tweeter with a lot of personal legal and financial problems to take care of. He's no longer making Presidential proclamations, introducing legislation, appointing key people, meeting world leaders and so on. And if he isn't on the ballot in 2024, he's simply less important. Obama was a good person for Biden to have at rallies, and made some news, but in the end people appreciate he was not the candidate and his significance reflects that.
If he's not the candidate, Trump won't do anything to help GOP candidates. It's not what pathological narcissists do.
That's right. HY is making the mistake of trying to read him like a politician
Biden has a reasonably credible route to 300, to be honest. He has 270 blue (called) or light blue (leading but tight) on the maps at this exact moment. Pennsylvania is very uncertain but would be 20. North Carolina (15) and Georgia (16) are pink but still scope for him, and that would be over 300.
I hasten to add he also has a credible route to under 270.
Huge IF, but it isn't pure vanity. If he has a one or two state cushion over 270, the whole debate over legal challenges is basically irrelevant as Trump is then left needing multiple snookers with few balls on the table.
Pretty sure NC is a stretch for Biden, GA is going to be very close. Didnt Biden win the ME2 vote so does that make it 270 or 271 ?
ME2 still hasn't been called and has a trump lead am. NE2 however has been called so if MI, WI and NV don't have a surprise he is on 270 even if PA goes to Trump
Not seeing much about Arizona lately, is there a realistic way back for Trump there with the remaining votes? I havent found whats outstanding there
No updates for ages. If the remaining votes split the same was as the on the day votes already counted then it will be close. Saying that, it has already been called by the AP.
Trump campaign staff on FOX making it clear the result (providing Biden wins) is going to court. 'The president will have won legitimately'. So popcorn time , no concession from Trump til 2023 I guess
The question is do the GOP have their own version of the Tories "Men in grey suits" to go and visit Trump with the proverbial revolver and glass of whisky?
Win or lose Trump has won more votes now than any Republican presidential candidate in history and the highest voteshare for any Republican candidate since Bush in 2004, it is his party for the foreseeable future so the party top brass cannot tell him anything, even if he loses and decides not to run again he will effectively be Kingmaker in deciding the party's nominee in 2024 probably either Pence or one of his kids
Trump remains an important player if he loses as it's clear he's beaten expectations and hasn't been humiliated. His endorsement will matter for Senate and House candidates, and he'll have a say in 2024 - perhaps even exploring standing himself.
I seriously question how important, though. The world does move on remarkably quickly, and 2024 is a long way away. Ultimately, if Trump loses, he's a prolific tweeter with a lot of personal legal and financial problems to take care of. He's no longer making Presidential proclamations, introducing legislation, appointing key people, meeting world leaders and so on. And if he isn't on the ballot in 2024, he's simply less important. Obama was a good person for Biden to have at rallies, and made some news, but in the end people appreciate he was not the candidate and his significance reflects that.
If he's not the candidate, Trump won't do anything to help GOP candidates. It's not what pathological narcissists do.
He will be raging about being a one term President, bad for his ego. So, he will move on to the next grift, he’s done politics.
Trump TV....its all the stuff he loves about being POTUS, with none of the "BORRRRRING" stuff. He gets to spout nonsense to the faithful, gets his ego stroked every night by the fans, without having any of all those boring meeting about covid or North Korea and alike.
I agree. Further, I have a sneaking suspicion that he really wants to go back to TV. I had this idea last night that he might resign in a huff and let Pence serve out the rest of his term. I suspect that might have been his gaem plan in 2016. The grievance narrative about the "stolen" election might help with viewing figures.
What about social media? He could set up his own version of Twitter, with tweets becoming known as trumps.
I wonder if twitter will try and de-person him? I doubt he is going to tone down the fake claims. What says him at the moment is they can't ban the leader of the free world.
I think he's Too Big To Fail, as far as Twitter are concerned. He drives an incredible amount of traffic, and will likely continue to do so even in retirement.
Of course, the occasional swipe at one of his more egregious posts serves both parties well - feeds Trump's victimhood narrative, and reassures the rest of Twitter that the platform is still a safe space.
I am sure FiveThirtyEight will be given stick for their predictions of Biden having a 90% chance. But in some sense this has been vindicated - Biden looks like he has won despite a polling error similar to Clinton (possibly bigger in FL). His 90% chance captures this significant additional robustness to polling error
The polling was wrong enough, in enough places, that their forecast was similarly off-kilter.
They also gave the Democrats a 3/4 chance of winning the Senate.
The YouGov MRP was pretty badly wrong too. It will be interesting to see whether these were wrong mainly due to relative turnout numbers, or support within certain demographics.
Good point.
The yougov mrp was a disaster!
It was a disaster in 2016 too, it only seems to work in the UK
Interestingly I think I'm right in saying the GOP Senators have outperformed Trump.
Which rather scotches the rather breathless suggestion of HYUFD that Trump will be the candidate again in 2024. Not a chance.
If they did it was only because they got Trump voters who turned out to vote for them as well as the traditional Republican vote.
In 2018 when Trump was not on the ballot they were trounced
I'm going to call a truce in the "Trafalgar" wars thusly. When Trump is on the ballot their record is good (there are now statistics to back that up in more than one election). When he's not its bad (there are statistics to back that up too). They have a feeling for the Trump "effect" - whether that's really reluctance to tell a pollster something I am not sure about, but they have a feel for it that is for sure.
They had Trump by 2.5 in Arizona, by 2.1 in NC, 2.3 in Nevada, 2.5 in Michigan.
I've just negotiated a peace treaty in a rather divisive dispute! Don't tear it up before the ink is dry.
Also, as we discussed in arguing against HYUFD's promotion of Trafalgar, the error is not binary in win/lose terms, but in how close to the actual result. Are those predictions above reflective of a greater error than pollsters calling MI by 10+, for example?
I've come to realise that HYUFD is completely correct and it is all about whether the pollster gets the winner right.
I have been to the US countless times. The only thing I really know about it is that it is a land of institutionalised cruelty and of a million everyday, personal kindnesses.
This is an extremely good description of the US, in my own personal experience also.
Trump campaign staff on FOX making it clear the result (providing Biden wins) is going to court. 'The president will have won legitimately'. So popcorn time , no concession from Trump til 2023 I guess
The question is do the GOP have their own version of the Tories "Men in grey suits" to go and visit Trump with the proverbial revolver and glass of whisky?
Win or lose Trump has won more votes now than any Republican presidential candidate in history and the highest voteshare for any Republican candidate since Bush in 2004, it is his party for the foreseeable future so the party top brass cannot tell him anything, even if he loses and decides not to run again he will effectively be Kingmaker in deciding the party's nominee in 2024 probably either Pence or one of his kids
Trump remains an important player if he loses as it's clear he's beaten expectations and hasn't been humiliated. His endorsement will matter for Senate and House candidates, and he'll have a say in 2024 - perhaps even exploring standing himself.
I seriously question how important, though. The world does move on remarkably quickly, and 2024 is a long way away. Ultimately, if Trump loses, he's a prolific tweeter with a lot of personal legal and financial problems to take care of. He's no longer making Presidential proclamations, introducing legislation, appointing key people, meeting world leaders and so on. And if he isn't on the ballot in 2024, he's simply less important. Obama was a good person for Biden to have at rallies, and made some news, but in the end people appreciate he was not the candidate and his significance reflects that.
If he's not the candidate, Trump won't do anything to help GOP candidates. It's not what pathological narcissists do.
He will be raging about being a one term President, bad for his ego. So, he will move on to the next grift, he’s done politics.
Trump TV....its all the stuff he loves about being POTUS, with none of the "BORRRRRING" stuff. He gets to spout nonsense to the faithful, gets his ego stroked every night by the fans, without having any of all those boring meeting about covid or North Korea and alike.
I agree. Further, I have a sneaking suspicion that he really wants to go back to TV. I had this idea last night that he might resign in a huff and let Pence serve out the rest of his term. I suspect that might have been his gaem plan in 2016. The grievance narrative about the "stolen" election might help with viewing figures.
What about social media? He could set up his own version of Twitter, with tweets becoming known as trumps.
I wonder if twitter will try and de-person him? I doubt he is going to tone down the fake claims. What says him at the moment is they can't ban the leader of the free world.
I think he's Too Big To Fail, as far as Twitter are concerned. He drives an incredible amount of traffic, and will likely continue to do so even in retirement.
Of course, the occasional swipe at one of his more egregious posts serves both parties well - feeds Trump's victimhood narrative, and reassures the rest of Twitter that the platform is still a safe space.
You would think so, but look at what has happened to Joe Rogan. Spotify signed him, the suggestion was he is way too big for Spotify to try and censor some of his more hmmm out there episodes, but the staff have gone nuts at management and they have disappeared a load of episodes and the staff still they aren't happy. Its far from certain how it will all play out.
On the 538 forecast, I have some sympathy. They gave Biden a 90% chance of winning. It looks likely he has won. He could even get a fairly decent EC result if the final states all fall in line. 90% is not 100%. We are dealing with probabilities here.
The problem was more that the received wisdom appeared to be that a Biden win was going to be apparent early doors, with strong results in NC and FL supposed to set the scene for the evening. That didn’t happen and he’s had to rely on some squeakers to get through. The polls were particularly off in the South. But to be fair to Nate Silver he has always said Trump had a path to victory and Biden’s victory could be anything from a nailbiter to a landslide. Though i must admit that always looked like bet-hedging to me - if you say any result is possible it means you’re going to be able to claim some sort of victory after the event.
Although this wasn’t the blowout the Democrats wanted (I think they wanted a cathartic clean sweep to purge the nation of Trumpism) at the end of the day nobody cares how many EVs the president won for the next 4 years. I don’t think they should be despondent.
The senate is a different story and that is where the Democrats do have cause to be disappointed. It will make a Biden presidency much less radical and much more small c conservative, and if the GOP want to play obstructionists they can.
Trump campaign staff on FOX making it clear the result (providing Biden wins) is going to court. 'The president will have won legitimately'. So popcorn time , no concession from Trump til 2023 I guess
The question is do the GOP have their own version of the Tories "Men in grey suits" to go and visit Trump with the proverbial revolver and glass of whisky?
Win or lose Trump has won more votes now than any Republican presidential candidate in history and the highest voteshare for any Republican candidate since Bush in 2004, it is his party for the foreseeable future so the party top brass cannot tell him anything, even if he loses and decides not to run again he will effectively be Kingmaker in deciding the party's nominee in 2024 probably either Pence or one of his kids
Won't be Pence if he loses as VP. He will be a candidate but never get momentum.
Mondale was the Democratic candidate in 1984 after being Carter's VP in 1980 when Reagan won and at present if Trump loses and does not run again in 2024 Pence followed by Donald Trump Jnr lead the 2024 GOP nomination polling followed by Haley and Ivanka
A pundit on CNN has just said the line of the night for me when asked why Trump would try to declare victory so early last night " The President had a temper tantrum"
Trump campaign staff on FOX making it clear the result (providing Biden wins) is going to court. 'The president will have won legitimately'. So popcorn time , no concession from Trump til 2023 I guess
The question is do the GOP have their own version of the Tories "Men in grey suits" to go and visit Trump with the proverbial revolver and glass of whisky?
Win or lose Trump has won more votes now than any Republican presidential candidate in history and the highest voteshare for any Republican candidate since Bush in 2004, it is his party for the foreseeable future so the party top brass cannot tell him anything, even if he loses and decides not to run again he will effectively be Kingmaker in deciding the party's nominee in 2024 probably either Pence or one of his kids
I don't know about that. Americans aren't that kind to election losers and many of his voters hate the democrats much more than they like Trump. Quite likely someone similar to Trump will emerge in 2024 but not the man himself. It'll be because the party has fundamentally changed.
If Trump's behaviour wasn't so appalling he would have won this election.
Quite likely that first debate performance was the single event that did for him. Not the embarrassing past four years nor his virus negligence, as we all assumed
I see Trump TV being great for business for a load of people. He will get big rating and the likes of CNN will get loads of material to be outraged about and continue to fill air with (while Sleepy Joe is having another nap).
If Biden does win with 270, the person casting the pivotal electoral vote that puts him over the top (assuming no faithless elector bonkersness) will be none other than... Hillary Clinton. Bet Trump will love that.
But to be fair to Nate Silver he has always said Trump had a path to victory and Biden’s victory could be anything from a nailbiter to a landslide. Though i must admit that always looked like bet-hedging to me
I am not sure it's fair to dismiss that as bet hedging if your truly believed that to be the situation. I did, even though I called a Blue Wave and a landslide. I still truly believed a Trump squeaker possible.
If the probability distribution has long fat tails, IMO it's not bet hedging to call it a fat alligator.
Not seeing much about Arizona lately, is there a realistic way back for Trump there with the remaining votes? I havent found whats outstanding there
No updates for ages. If the remaining votes split the same was as the on the day votes already counted then it will be close. Saying that, it has already been called by the AP.
Remember that in 2018, McSally was a couple of points up on the night, and then postals over the next couple of days gave it to the Democrat. Given they'll still count late arriving votes there, it's hard to see it as anything other than a Democratic win.
Interestingly I think I'm right in saying the GOP Senators have outperformed Trump.
Which rather scotches the rather breathless suggestion of HYUFD that Trump will be the candidate again in 2024. Not a chance.
To be fair to @HYUFD, if GOP Senators controlled the primaries, Trump would not have been the candidate in 2016. Luckily there are other reasons the Donald will not stand again.
State Votes left to count (est.) Current margin Current leader % votes Michigan 5% 269,000 15,527 Biden Wisconsin 5% 173,000 20,748 Biden Georgia 6% 301,000 102,212 Trump North Carolina 6% 348,000 76,712 Trump Nevada 33% 589,000 7,647 Biden Pennsylvania 36% 3,121,000 561,736 Trump Alaska 55% 210,000 51,382 Trump
If these votes left are correct, MI, WI stay blue. GA goes blue, NC goes blue, NV may well go red, PA defo goes blue.
I cant see Biden picking up both NC & GA. The impression I get is that Biden will hold on in NV. Does that and takes MI & WI and the conversation really does change because its tangible.
So pbers, with hindsight what were the value bets? ...
The EV hedges for those convinced Biden was going to win (Biden 240-269 and Trump 270-299). I was able to close out a decent slug at evens during this morning's swings.
Also @rcs1000 tip of Michigan at 2.5 as a value bet in the early hours.
State Votes left to count (est.) Current margin Current leader % votes Michigan 5% 269,000 15,527 Biden Wisconsin 5% 173,000 20,748 Biden Georgia 6% 301,000 102,212 Trump North Carolina 6% 348,000 76,712 Trump Nevada 33% 589,000 7,647 Biden Pennsylvania 36% 3,121,000 561,736 Trump Alaska 55% 210,000 51,382 Trump
If these votes left are correct, MI, WI stay blue. GA goes blue, NC goes blue, NV may well go red, PA defo goes blue.
I cant see Biden picking up both NC & GA. The impression I get is that Biden will hold on in NV. Does that and takes MI & WI and the conversation really does change because its tangible.
All depends on ballot type. Mail ballots are bigly for Biden. Guardian's figures seem high though.
So if you’re Biden, you’ve just won more votes than any of predecessors but you’ll struggle to pass any legislation for two years during the long slog of recovery from Covid-19. You then lose the House, definitely can’t pass anything, and spent your life on the defensive on the run in to 2024.
I see Trump TV being great for business for a load of people. He will get big rating and the likes of CNN will get loads of material to be outraged about and continue to fill air with (while Sleepy Joe is having another nap).
The plethora of hosts sacked from Fox for sexual harassment will love it!
Just want to put the the following written predictions on record again
Biden 5-7% national vote lead...perhaps a bit less but I believe mighty California still counting. Texas will stay GOP - Done Forget Florida as the key place - Seems to be done Bidens route is the 100% Mid West & South West - looks to be in good shape GA to have the smallest margin of victory for either man, not so good.
Do these North Carolina ballots definitely exist like the Pennsylvania ones do - or are they presumed stuck in the post ?
That's a good question. Is that what they know they have left to count of mail-in ballots, or is it an estimate of what they will receive before 12 November?
I'm up about thirty quid on under 100 staked, so this isn't a tilt-rage, but the inability of major US cities to get a count done in good time is a real stain on US politics. This isn't a partisan thing; Wisconsin is as bad as Michigan, although Pennsylvania seems to be the worst. As well as being crap (it's just counting bits of paper) it means that the "they stole the election" meme looks legit, even if it isn't.
If a handful of states stop counting overnight, and then pick up again all with big D swings, it looks suspicious. And there's no honest reason for stopping and starting either; if the banjo-plucking moonshine drinkers of Bumphook County, Oklahoma can flick their mayonnaisey fingers through all the ballots by midnight, then huwhy in cousin-f*cking tarnation can't a city of Philadelphia's reputation get more than halfway by now?
And reporting votes in a way that has Biden getting 130k+ votes, with no other candidate getting any, does not assuage calls of shenanigans. It's not proof of f*ckery, but it's enough to put even the most casual observer on notice that the possibility of f*ckery is not to be entirely discounted: https://twitter.com/JayVal00/status/1323966769854382082?s=09
Comments
Never in doubt. Ahem.
https://twitter.com/bearpig/status/1323974997002588162?s=20
If Trump's behaviour wasn't so appalling he would have won this election.
I hasten to add he also has a credible route to under 270.
Huge IF, but it isn't pure vanity. If he has a one or two state cushion over 270, the whole debate over legal challenges is basically irrelevant as Trump is then left needing multiple snookers with few balls on the table.
But regardless of that, he damn near did.
I can also see a situation where it'd be handy if the person in a position to dish out Presidential pardons owed him a favour.
Rhode Island voters officially drop 'Providence Plantations' from state name
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/524430-rhode-island-voters-officially-drop-providence-plantations-from-state
Yet one more disappointment from King John.
I'm sure being led by a septuagenarian and octogenarian multi-millionaires has got nothing to do with it....
Similarly with the Tories in the UK, the "Not Corbyn" ship has well & truly sailed
Hey but regardless of the final outcome, the "feel" of the election as experienced by me in real time was much closer to your call than to mine. So well done for that. Not quite the glory but no egg on face whatsoever. Polls, schmolls.
They also gave the Democrats a 3/4 chance of winning the Senate.
The YouGov MRP was pretty badly wrong too. It will be interesting to see whether these were wrong mainly due to relative turnout numbers, or support within certain demographics.
The yougov mrp was a disaster!
Any long odds winnners?
Never in doubt.
Of course, the occasional swipe at one of his more egregious posts serves both parties well - feeds Trump's victimhood narrative, and reassures the rest of Twitter that the platform is still a safe space.
Looks like the first of the two dice settled upon a one, but the second die is still spinning but looks like its going to land on a 2 or 3.
Below the seven median average for Biden, but still enough.
https://twitter.com/HuffPostUKPol/status/1324000054022230018
The problem was more that the received wisdom appeared to be that a Biden win was going to be apparent early doors, with strong results in NC and FL supposed to set the scene for the evening. That didn’t happen and he’s had to rely on some squeakers to get through. The polls were particularly off in the South. But to be fair to Nate Silver he has always said Trump had a path to victory and Biden’s victory could be anything from a nailbiter to a landslide. Though i must admit that always looked like bet-hedging to me - if you say any result is possible it means you’re going to be able to claim some sort of victory after the event.
Although this wasn’t the blowout the Democrats wanted (I think they wanted a cathartic clean sweep to purge the nation of Trumpism) at the end of the day nobody cares how many EVs the president won for the next 4 years. I don’t think they should be despondent.
The senate is a different story and that is where the Democrats do have cause to be disappointed. It will make a Biden presidency much less radical and much more small c conservative, and if the GOP want to play obstructionists they can.
I hope it has been profitable.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1213688315213471744?s=20
% votes
Michigan 5% 269,000 15,527 Biden
Wisconsin 5% 173,000 20,748 Biden
Georgia 6% 301,000 102,212 Trump
North Carolina 6% 348,000 76,712 Trump
Nevada 33% 589,000 7,647 Biden
Pennsylvania 36% 3,121,000 561,736 Trump
Alaska 55% 210,000 51,382 Trump
If these votes left are correct, MI, WI stay blue. GA goes blue, NC goes blue, NV may well go red, PA defo goes blue.
If the probability distribution has long fat tails, IMO it's not bet hedging to call it a fat alligator.
I got back in on Biden when he was still 1.7s
Only reason I recovered was holding my nerve in not cutting my losses at 4am last night and trading and repositioning this morning..
Well done on holding your nerve.
I was able to close out a decent slug at evens during this morning's swings.
Also @rcs1000 tip of Michigan at 2.5 as a value bet in the early hours.
What a mad electoral system.
But my best trade was buying Biden on the EV supremacy spread at under 30 and then cashing out at around 50.
Biden 5-7% national vote lead...perhaps a bit less but I believe mighty California still counting.
Texas will stay GOP - Done
Forget Florida as the key place - Seems to be done
Bidens route is the 100% Mid West & South West - looks to be in good shape
GA to have the smallest margin of victory for either man, not so good.
Big difference between those two.
If a handful of states stop counting overnight, and then pick up again all with big D swings, it looks suspicious. And there's no honest reason for stopping and starting either; if the banjo-plucking moonshine drinkers of Bumphook County, Oklahoma can flick their mayonnaisey fingers through all the ballots by midnight, then huwhy in cousin-f*cking tarnation can't a city of Philadelphia's reputation get more than halfway by now?
And reporting votes in a way that has Biden getting 130k+ votes, with no other candidate getting any, does not assuage calls of shenanigans. It's not proof of f*ckery, but it's enough to put even the most casual observer on notice that the possibility of f*ckery is not to be entirely discounted: https://twitter.com/JayVal00/status/1323966769854382082?s=09