Trump TV is going to be 4 years of how he was robbed by fraudulent votes.
If he is not in jail, yes.
They will have to find something absolutely concrete and horrendous otherwise they risk turning him into a martyr. I wouldn't be surprised if they find tax issues, but its America, there is always a deal to be done by the rich on such things.
If - big if - Biden wins the EC, gets more votes than any other candidate in Presidential history and also secures a six to seven point winning margin, that is quite a mandate, isn't it?
The evidence is now becoming clear that Biden will win relatively soon. I wasn't going to bet this time, after the shocks of 2016, but I did change my mind in the middle of the night when the odds were quite favourable.
An increasing number of leading European politicians are using this election as an argument for Europe to “take its destiny into its own hands”, as former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt put it - or in the words of France’s Europe minister, not to look to US election results to decide Europe’s fate.
Answer to every crisis...more and closer EU.
Well, he is right, isn't he? With the world drifting into protectionist economic and political blocs, of course European countries need to pool their collective strengths. Otherwise Europe will be caught in the whims of a not very friendly USA and an actively malign China, with side dishes of Islamist terrorism and Russian thuggery.
Oh dear. Richard's gone full federalist.
No, the answer is to form a global democratic alliance of sovereign nations. The EU just has an ideological boner for forming a single nation, and has done since Charlemagne.
They need to know their limits.
I don't know how anyone can look across the pond and think "look what is going wrong in that federation, we need more continental federalism over here".
I'm a pro-European/anti-Federalist and thus (shock!) have to agree. And the US has the advantage of a common linguistic and legal heritage. But then I'm a municipalist so I need to stay out of these debates.
Use the time saved to bone up on a bit of US history?
One positive of such a close result, hopefully it will put an end to the nonsense of defund the police movement even been entertained....well other than Portland, who upcoming mayoral election is between the current idiot and somebody even more radical.
Yes. Putting my betting wishes to one side, my ideal was a narrow Biden win (to get rid of ogre Trump who is a disgrace to the US) with GOP holding the Senate.
My reason was the identity politics stuff. I think Biden will squeak it, but he would have won more handsomely if the dems weren`t so liable to be captured by the illiberal garbage and virtue signalling of the far left. (We`ll never know how many votes Biden lost by "taking the knee" for instance).
You have to pity the American people - what a choice to be faced with - Biden or Trump
This is really the pick of the American political scene?
It's not a hard choice.
Not for me either, but the two options not being equal doesn't mean both cannot be bad (though personally I don't see that Biden was as bad as advertised).
Jocelyn Benson, Michigan’s Secretary of State, has posted to reassure voters that all of their ballots will be counted. She says “Hundreds of thousands of ballots in our largest jurisdictions are still being counted, including Detroit, Grand Rapids, Flint, Warren & Sterling Heights.”
Michigan has about 10% of its votes left to count – some 539,000. Trump currently has a lead of 12,526
If - big if - Biden wins the EC, gets more votes than any other candidate in Presidential history and also secures a six to seven point winning margin, that is quite a mandate, isn't it?
In the popular vote it is now Biden 50.2% and Trump 48.3% so Biden is over 50% but actually with a smaller popular vote lead than Hillary had in 2016 at this point
An increasing number of leading European politicians are using this election as an argument for Europe to “take its destiny into its own hands”, as former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt put it - or in the words of France’s Europe minister, not to look to US election results to decide Europe’s fate.
Answer to every crisis...more and closer EU.
Well, he is right, isn't he? With the world drifting into protectionist economic and political blocs, of course European countries need to pool their collective strengths. Otherwise Europe will be caught in the whims of a not very friendly USA and an actively malign China, with side dishes of Islamist terrorism and Russian thuggery.
Oh dear. Richard's gone full federalist.
No, the answer is to form a global democratic alliance of sovereign nations. The EU just has an ideological boner for forming a single nation, and has done since Charlemagne.
They need to know their limits.
I don't know how anyone can look across the pond and think "look what is going wrong in that federation, we need more continental federalism over here".
I'm a pro-European/anti-Federalist and thus (shock!) have to agree. And the US has the advantage of a common linguistic and legal heritage. But then I'm a municipalist so I need to stay out of these debates.
Use the time saved to bone up on a bit of US history?
My wife's American and my Masters thesis was on the legal history of US Labour Relations so I know a bit. But opinions vary I accept.
If - big if - Biden wins the EC, gets more votes than any other candidate in Presidential history and also secures a six to seven point winning margin, that is quite a mandate, isn't it?
Certainly is. Not much use having a mandate without the Senate though.
If - big if - Biden wins the EC, gets more votes than any other candidate in Presidential history and also secures a six to seven point winning margin, that is quite a mandate, isn't it?
The only real mandate is in control of congress. If the Senate blocks everything and the 6-3 supreme court stays, he has a lot of difficulty.
If - big if - Biden wins the EC, gets more votes than any other candidate in Presidential history and also secures a six to seven point winning margin, that is quite a mandate, isn't it?
In the popular vote it is now Biden 50.2% and Trump 48.3% so Biden is over 50% but actually with a smaller popular vote than Hillary at this point
If - big if - Biden wins the EC, gets more votes than any other candidate in Presidential history and also secures a six to seven point winning margin, that is quite a mandate, isn't it?
In the popular vote it is now Biden 50.2% and Trump 48.3% so Biden is over 50% but actually with a smaller popular vote than Hillary at this point
We need to wait and see, but in 2016 Hillary's PV lead grew considerably over the week or two which followed thanks to very blue states which were called early by all the networks but counted slowly (California especially). Based on the current results it's clear Biden will have a bigger PV win, though quite how much bigger isn't clear.
They will have to find something absolutely concrete and horrendous otherwise they risk turning him into a martyr. I wouldn't be surprised if they find tax issues, but its America, there is always a deal to be done by the rich on such things.
There is either something in his previous life, and tax seems a likely candidate, or there may be something in his years in office. It does look to the outside observer that he has used the Presidency as a means of funnelling cash his way. Might be totally legal of course.
If - big if - Biden wins the EC, gets more votes than any other candidate in Presidential history and also secures a six to seven point winning margin, that is quite a mandate, isn't it?
In Nevada, voters still have a week to “cure” their signatures if needed – meaning to confirm their vote if they forgot to sign or if their signature seems not to match voter files. Now that’s asking for trouble.
If - big if - Biden wins the EC, gets more votes than any other candidate in Presidential history and also secures a six to seven point winning margin, that is quite a mandate, isn't it?
In the popular vote it is now Biden 50.2% and Trump 48.3% so Biden is over 50% but actually with a smaller popular vote than Hillary at this point
IIRC last time it took quite a while for the scale of Hillary's popular vote win to become clear, some states take ages to tally the votes nobody cares about.
If - big if - Biden wins the EC, gets more votes than any other candidate in Presidential history and also secures a six to seven point winning margin, that is quite a mandate, isn't it?
In the popular vote it is now Biden 50.2% and Trump 48.3% so Biden is over 50% but actually with a smaller popular vote than Hillary at this point
The evidence is now becoming clear that Biden will win relatively soon. I wasn't going to bet this time, after the shocks of 2016, but I did change my mind in the middle of the night when the odds were quite favourable.
How soon? And why do you think so?
I mean effectively win. TV stations might not want to call the close states, and Trump will challenge the results, but it'll be clear to objective observers that Biden is the winner.
A huge amount of magnanimity* is needed if Biden does win.
He will have been bloody lucky, despite the national lead, and he will have to disprove Republican fears about him and the Dems in office if he wants to avoid widespread disorder - particularly given how hard and deep rural areas have gone red. Totally uber red.
(*yes, I know Trump never did this but you need to expect more from Biden otherwise both parties will descend into an ever more vicious tit-for-tat, and it will fuel the Rep selection of the next candidate as Trump-lite)
No. You and the rest of the right always want the left to hand over their balls before entry. Not this time.
And this is how nasty cultural divisions persist, ladies & gentlemen, for all our disbenefit.
It takes courage, yes. It takes leadership, yes. It takes humility, yes.
Sorry, becoming a bore on this one but I don’t think you can count AZ for Biden. If that’s the case, the dynamics change.
Trump gets AZ + NC + AL, he is on 236. Not sure ME-2 but Collins performance will give him hope so let’s say it’s 237.
Let’s assume he wins PA. That’s 257.
He then only has to win one of MI or GA.
You can also bet there is no way he is going to allow Wayne County to report 140K out of 150K ballots for Biden without a serious legal challenge.
Wayne County haven't reported 140/150 for Biden. That was one batch of mail in ballots - which of course is to be expected to be primarily Biden.
Primarily Biden is one thing, over 90pc is another. The scale of those Mail in ballots breaking for Biden is not going to go unchallenged.
Odd comment. Trump spent half the campaign ordering his supporters to vote in person and not to trust the mail. Now he's going to challenge in the courts because his strategy was successful?
If - big if - Biden wins the EC, gets more votes than any other candidate in Presidential history and also secures a six to seven point winning margin, that is quite a mandate, isn't it?
Trump would flip his sh*t if that happens. I wonder how many elected GOP would go with him on that, as I think the observation made earlier that Trump seems to genuinely not understand the electoral process is true, not merely that he says provocative things about it.
If - big if - Biden wins the EC, gets more votes than any other candidate in Presidential history and also secures a six to seven point winning margin, that is quite a mandate, isn't it?
In the popular vote it is now Biden 50.2% and Trump 48.3% so Biden is over 50% but actually with a smaller popular vote than Hillary at this point
IIRC last time it took quite a while for the scale of Hillary's popular vote win to become clear, some states take ages to tally the votes nobody cares about.
The day after the election you could get Clinton to win the popular vote @1.05
A huge amount of magnanimity* is needed if Biden does win.
He will have been bloody lucky, despite the national lead, and he will have to disprove Republican fears about him and the Dems in office if he wants to avoid widespread disorder - particularly given how hard and deep rural areas have gone red. Totally uber red.
(*yes, I know Trump never did this but you need to expect more from Biden otherwise both parties will descend into an ever more vicious tit-for-tat, and it will fuel the Rep selection of the next candidate as Trump-lite)
No. You and the rest of the right always want the left to hand over their balls before entry. Not this time.
And this is how nasty cultural divisions persist, ladies & gentlemen, for all our disbenefit.
It takes courage, yes. It takes leadership, yes. It takes humility, yes.
If - big if - Biden wins the EC, gets more votes than any other candidate in Presidential history and also secures a six to seven point winning margin, that is quite a mandate, isn't it?
We could still be looking at a 300+ EV scenario for Biden if he gets PA and GA. It would be based on some very squeaky results but then so was Trump’s 2016 EC majority.
We could still be looking at a 300+ EV scenario for Biden if he gets PA and GA. It would be based on some very squeaky results but then so was Trump’s 2016 EC majority.
We could still be looking at a 300+ EV scenario for Biden if he gets PA and GA. It would be based on some very squeaky results but then so was Trump’s 2016 EC majority.
If - big if - Biden wins the EC, gets more votes than any other candidate in Presidential history and also secures a six to seven point winning margin, that is quite a mandate, isn't it?
Not sure why the 'more votes than any other' would mean so, since others may have been more dominant in a country with a smaller population at the time. I mean, wasn't that Corbyn's claim to success?
A huge amount of magnanimity* is needed if Biden does win.
He will have been bloody lucky, despite the national lead, and he will have to disprove Republican fears about him and the Dems in office if he wants to avoid widespread disorder - particularly given how hard and deep rural areas have gone red. Totally uber red.
(*yes, I know Trump never did this but you need to expect more from Biden otherwise both parties will descend into an ever more vicious tit-for-tat, and it will fuel the Rep selection of the next candidate as Trump-lite)
No. You and the rest of the right always want the left to hand over their balls before entry. Not this time.
And this is how nasty cultural divisions persist, ladies & gentlemen, for all our disbenefit.
It takes courage, yes. It takes leadership, yes. It takes humility, yes.
Obstinacy only leads down one path.
Yes, you are quite right on that. The good news is that Joe Biden seems to understand this very well; of course he has to win first!
In retrospect Kamala Harris probably wasn't the best VP choice. He should have gone for Amy Klobuchar.
As I said only a few days ago I was once given the task of shredding late arrived ballots at my local council. This was about four months after the elections by the way. Once of the most boring jobs I've had.
A huge amount of magnanimity* is needed if Biden does win.
He will have been bloody lucky, despite the national lead, and he will have to disprove Republican fears about him and the Dems in office if he wants to avoid widespread disorder - particularly given how hard and deep rural areas have gone red. Totally uber red.
(*yes, I know Trump never did this but you need to expect more from Biden otherwise both parties will descend into an ever more vicious tit-for-tat, and it will fuel the Rep selection of the next candidate as Trump-lite)
No. You and the rest of the right always want the left to hand over their balls before entry. Not this time.
And this is how nasty cultural divisions persist, ladies & gentlemen, for all our disbenefit.
It takes courage, yes. It takes leadership, yes. It takes humility, yes.
Obstinacy only leads down one path.
Yes, you are quite right on that. The good news is that Joe Biden seems to understand this very well; of course he has to win first!
In retrospect Kamala Harris probably wasn't the best VP choice. He should have gone for Amy Klobuchar.
I agree with you on the Harris pick. But if he does win I will be delighted to see a woman VP. I am not sure what her chances would be in 2024 though (assuming Biden only serves one term which is the accepted wisdom, even if he won’t say it).
As I said only a few days ago I was once given the task of shredding late arrived ballots at my local council. This was about four months after the elections by the way. Once of the most boring jobs I've had.
Would have been more exciting had it been before the election.
I mistraded throughout the night, cashed my spread for a loss and hedged on Trump all over the shop. But should still emerge with a profit if Biden does it.
They will have to find something absolutely concrete and horrendous otherwise they risk turning him into a martyr. I wouldn't be surprised if they find tax issues, but its America, there is always a deal to be done by the rich on such things.
There is either something in his previous life, and tax seems a likely candidate, or there may be something in his years in office. It does look to the outside observer that he has used the Presidency as a means of funnelling cash his way. Might be totally legal of course.
If its purely financial, especially historic, as I say, its America, the rich get to try and do a deal to pay their way out.
If - big if - Biden wins the EC, gets more votes than any other candidate in Presidential history and also secures a six to seven point winning margin, that is quite a mandate, isn't it?
Not sure why the 'more votes than any other' would mean so, since others may have been more dominant in a country with a smaller population at the time. I mean, wasn't that Corbyn's claim to success?
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the WH right now....
I suspect when Trump came out very early and said 'we want the count stopped on the night and we have lawyers ready' maybe he had seen internal polling on the rustbelt states and realised it might be very very tight and was preparing the ground. He still hasnt lost yet but MI and WI look better each hour for Biden and that would be enough (unless NV springs a huge shock)
A huge amount of magnanimity* is needed if Biden does win.
He will have been bloody lucky, despite the national lead, and he will have to disprove Republican fears about him and the Dems in office if he wants to avoid widespread disorder - particularly given how hard and deep rural areas have gone red. Totally uber red.
(*yes, I know Trump never did this but you need to expect more from Biden otherwise both parties will descend into an ever more vicious tit-for-tat, and it will fuel the Rep selection of the next candidate as Trump-lite)
No. You and the rest of the right always want the left to hand over their balls before entry. Not this time.
And this is how nasty cultural divisions persist, ladies & gentlemen, for all our disbenefit.
It takes courage, yes. It takes leadership, yes. It takes humility, yes.
Obstinacy only leads down one path.
Yes, you are quite right on that. The good news is that Joe Biden seems to understand this very well; of course he has to win first!
In retrospect Kamala Harris probably wasn't the best VP choice. He should have gone for Amy Klobuchar.
Someone closer to an Andrew Yang could reach out across the divide. He had some powerful things to say about dealing with the effects of globalisation on the low income/deprived areas.
I mistraded throughout the night, cashed my spread for a loss and hedged on Trump all over the shop. But should still emerge with a profit if Biden does it.
I have held tight onto Biden through thick and thin since summer 2017.
As I said only a few days ago I was once given the task of shredding late arrived ballots at my local council. This was about four months after the elections by the way. Once of the most boring jobs I've had.
Would have been more exciting had it been before the election.
Eh, after a few time even then it becomes routine...
Clearly Biden has done really well in suburbs and cities around the country. But Trumps vote has held up incredibly well. The US really is a nation divided
Trump TV is going to be 4 years of how he was robbed by fraudulent votes.
If he is not in jail, yes.
They will have to find something absolutely concrete and horrendous otherwise they risk turning him into a martyr. I wouldn't be surprised if they find tax issues, but its America, there is always a deal to be done by the rich on such things.
Given that the Special Counsel stayed well away from Trump's finances I suggest that they might start by looking there.
Betting post for those with strong nerves and swift fingers, Betfair has the next president market which we are all watching, and also has a less liquid, parallel market for which party wins.
Because the big hitters are confined to the larger market, there are frequent arbs between the two, when it is possible to back in one market and lay in the other to lock in a profit.
As I said only a few days ago I was once given the task of shredding late arrived ballots at my local council. This was about four months after the elections by the way. Once of the most boring jobs I've had.
Would have been more exciting had it been before the election.
Eh, after a few time even then it becomes routine...
No need to shred before the election. We rub out the pencil and change the votes in our favour.
If you would like some grist to your "electoral fraud" mill, here it is. 140k votes came in at once in Michigan, every single one for Biden. Might be an artefact of the tallying machine, of course.
Were they though? I never thought Biden would win Ohio.
We may end up in a situation where the pollsters DID get it right after all in the national share and Biden landing at around 280 to 306 would look like a reasonably clear win
Florida was a big miss by most of them (and me) but not by many posters on here
There's been a lot of talk about it being a disappointing night for the Dems but if Biden wins the EC 306 to 232 and the EV by >5%, I am not sure how the GOP, with a losing incumbent President, can take a lot of comfort from that.
Yep. Let's see, I don't want to tempt fate, but it's shaping up as a lagged blue wavelet. Bit like 2018. Not only Trump Toast but we could likely end up with a very clear Biden win in both PV and EC - with just the sequence of things making it seem close.
Trump's demeanour and words - "stop the count! they're stealing it!"- were those of someone who knows he's lost and lost decisively. Poor Donald. But also Desperate Donald and we must brace for some dirty tricks. It might be hard to get him out.
But after a night like that - harrowing at times - I'm not counting any chickens. And regardless, this is not the big landslide I was hoping for and really thought was on.
Hope people had a good one and made money doing some clever clogs in-running stuff. I did ok but the decision not to close my long at 28 supremacy bet at 100 a couple of weeks ago does not go down as one of my best. To put it mildly.
Ah well, so long as he doesn't find a way to lawyer a "win" or start a civil war, all is fine.
Comments
The 1.5 on biden4potus wasn’t a great value bet after all!
Throw the polls down the well.
My reason was the identity politics stuff. I think Biden will squeak it, but he would have won more handsomely if the dems weren`t so liable to be captured by the illiberal garbage and virtue signalling of the far left. (We`ll never know how many votes Biden lost by "taking the knee" for instance).
Given my position now you'd never know I'd stake a chunk on the Dems to win @2.5 at the early part of the year.
Michigan has about 10% of its votes left to count – some 539,000. Trump currently has a lead of 12,526
Counting's not going to stop though and it looks like Biden has this. By less than I expected but by enough.
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president?iid=politics_election_bop
Simon Stevens (NHS CEO England) has just announced nationwide Covid Level 4 from midnight.
I think that means cancellation of a lot of elective work. Not sure of the full details.
Three very different States at all ends of the nation.
https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1323963582850207745
I'll get my coat.
Which relates to the internal operations of the NHS, not the national external alert level.
https://twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/1323966419919343617
In retrospect Kamala Harris probably wasn't the best VP choice. He should have gone for Amy Klobuchar.
He has been doing a press conference at lunch time to announce it.
What a day. Just arrived at work and its all kicking off...
Effectively all over?
Nice to see my approach of going to sleep and missing the action actually worked out this time.
Edit - just seen the answer below.
Edit: And the Republican who performed best there? Apparently, RIchard Nixon.
"a dangerous liar who is threatening to undermine democracy" was probably the kindest thing he said.....
Called Trump's speech "the lowest point in American politics I can ever recall"
https://twitter.com/Elaijuh/status/1322286262024359937?s=19
Still holding. Gonna be a long few hours.
100,000s
Because the big hitters are confined to the larger market, there are frequent arbs between the two, when it is possible to back in one market and lay in the other to lock in a profit.
#penisbest
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323958418177142792
Further disclaimer - it's on twitter so might be complete bollocks. https://twitter.com/JayVal00/status/1323966769854382082?s=09
With my busted state bets and terrible main market trading I think I need not Just a Biden win but a slam dunk win from here to turn a profit.
We may end up in a situation where the pollsters DID get it right after all in the national share and Biden landing at around 280 to 306 would look like a reasonably clear win
Florida was a big miss by most of them (and me) but not by many posters on here
Trump's demeanour and words - "stop the count! they're stealing it!"- were those of someone who knows he's lost and lost decisively. Poor Donald. But also Desperate Donald and we must brace for some dirty tricks. It might be hard to get him out.
But after a night like that - harrowing at times - I'm not counting any chickens. And regardless, this is not the big landslide I was hoping for and really thought was on.
Hope people had a good one and made money doing some clever clogs in-running stuff. I did ok but the decision not to close my long at 28 supremacy bet at 100 a couple of weeks ago does not go down as one of my best. To put it mildly.
Ah well, so long as he doesn't find a way to lawyer a "win" or start a civil war, all is fine.