If there are still 1.4m ballots to count in Pennsylvania* and Biden is only 400000 behind then he only needs about 63% to win, right?
*Sky just showed 5.6m votes counted with 80% done. I assume I've got this right.
470k behind, supposedly 1.2m ballots still to count so he needs just around 70%. I think it should still be doable because the remaining votes are coming from strong Dem areas, but I don't think it's guaranteed. If Trump wins PA then he only needs to take NV in addition to NC and GA to win.
More ballots than that I think – PA secretary of state said millions (plural) about an hour ago live on CNN.
If there are still 1.4m ballots to count in Pennsylvania* and Biden is only 400000 behind then he only needs about 63% to win, right?
*Sky just showed 5.6m votes counted with 80% done. I assume I've got this right.
470k behind, supposedly 1.2m ballots still to count so he needs just around 70%. I think it should still be doable because the remaining votes are coming from strong Dem areas, but I don't think it's guaranteed. If Trump wins PA then he only needs to take NV in addition to NC and GA to win.
1.2 million portals. Still a little bit more outstanding on the day, maybe 300k. But the on-the-day favours Trump 4-to-3
If there are still 1.4m ballots to count in Pennsylvania* and Biden is only 400000 behind then he only needs about 63% to win, right?
*Sky just showed 5.6m votes counted with 80% done. I assume I've got this right.
470k behind, supposedly 1.2m ballots still to count so he needs just around 70%. I think it should still be doable because the remaining votes are coming from strong Dem areas, but I don't think it's guaranteed. If Trump wins PA then he only needs to take NV in addition to NC and GA to win.
More ballots than that I think – PA secretary of state said millions (plural) about an hour ago live on CNN.
Well, that was some day. The technology exploded, a child threatened to hit me, a bottle of water got dropped down a flight of stairs with predictably unfortunate consequences, and my car has a fault.
I’m so pleased to hear nothing exciting happened in the world. I don’t think I could bear it.
"Presidential electors in Nebraska are required to cast their ballots for the candidate who won the highest number of votes in their district. A presidential elector who refuses to present a ballot, who attempts to present an unmarked ballot, or who casts a vote contrary to that requirement vacates the office of elector. In such a case, the governor will appoint a replacement."
Now what is unclear from this is whether the elector's vote is deemed invalid if they vote for a candidate other than who won the district. So can the elector for NE-02 be unfaithful and, if so, even if dismissed by the Governor (a Republican), does their vote still count?
I think Trump has been mentally preparing for a return to chatshow grandstanding and grievance-airing for months. I don't sense a man on the edge of a breakdown ; just someone preparing for a new kind of war of cultures and preaching to his constituency, from the comfort of his televised sofa.
If there are still 1.4m ballots to count in Pennsylvania* and Biden is only 400000 behind then he only needs about 63% to win, right?
*Sky just showed 5.6m votes counted with 80% done. I assume I've got this right.
470k behind, supposedly 1.2m ballots still to count so he needs just around 70%. I think it should still be doable because the remaining votes are coming from strong Dem areas, but I don't think it's guaranteed. If Trump wins PA then he only needs to take NV in addition to NC and GA to win.
More ballots than that I think – PA secretary of state said millions (plural) about an hour ago live on CNN.
"Presidential electors in Nebraska are required to cast their ballots for the candidate who won the highest number of votes in their district. A presidential elector who refuses to present a ballot, who attempts to present an unmarked ballot, or who casts a vote contrary to that requirement vacates the office of elector. In such a case, the governor will appoint a replacement."
Now what is unclear from this is whether the elector's vote is deemed invalid if they vote for a candidate other than who won the district. So can the elector for NE-02 be unfaithful and, if so, even if dismissed by the Governor (a Republican), does their vote still count?
So looking at the AZ map on the NYTimes site they are saying they believe about 520.000 votes outstanding and Biden is up by 216,000 votes, Looking at the county returns so far (which Trump won most of last time of course) I dont see the numbers there for Trump. Unless I'm missing something ? Even if Trump won all the remaining votes 2-1 he would be short. And some counties are quite strong D leaning
My guess is that Biden wins PA, WI, MI, AZ but loses NV.
NC could also enter the Democrat column if enough late arriving postal votes come in.
My guess AZ, NV, NC = Trump; WI / MI = Biden, PA = too close to call
We have a whole week of mail in ballots for the Dems to receive in Arizona, why wouldn't you expect them to be overwhelmingly for Biden?
Again, it comes back to whether the 2018 dynamic is the same as 2020. If it is, you are right. If it is not, and a lot of this has already been subsumed in the general voting trends. I don't know whether the comment about AZ mail-in being different from mid west is true
Both sides used VBM in Arizona, it's the normal method for elections. This is from MAGA twitter and I have no pleasure in sharing it but I think it's likely to be accurate
So AZ + NC + GA + NV + ME-2 + Alaska gets Trump to 261.
So we are right back again to all on PA as I think MI and WI are gone for Trump
Trump at 5.5 looks value at moment.
Talk of recount for WI.
There will be a recount and it won't change anything, just like there are recounts and they never change anything in the UK.
I was just thinking that – my dad told me as a young boy that when a party asks for a recount they have lost the seat. I can never remember that being wrong!
Recounts have changed results though. At Peterborough in 1966 Labour was 162 votes ahead on first two counts. After 7 recounts the Tories held on by 3 votes.
My guess is that Biden wins PA, WI, MI, AZ but loses NV.
NC could also enter the Democrat column if enough late arriving postal votes come in.
My guess AZ, NV, NC = Trump; WI / MI = Biden, PA = too close to call
We have a whole week of mail in ballots for the Dems to receive in Arizona, why wouldn't you expect them to be overwhelmingly for Biden?
Again, it comes back to whether the 2018 dynamic is the same as 2020. If it is, you are right. If it is not, and a lot of this has already been subsumed in the general voting trends. I don't know whether the comment about AZ mail-in being different from mid west is true
Both sides used VBM in Arizona, it's the normal method for elections. This is from MAGA twitter and I have no pleasure in sharing it but I think it's likely to be accurate
So AZ + NC + GA + NV + ME-2 + Alaska gets Trump to 261.
So we are right back again to all on PA as I think MI and WI are gone for Trump
Trump at 5.5 looks value at moment.
Talk of recount for WI.
There will be a recount and it won't change anything, just like there are recounts and they never change anything in the UK.
I was just thinking that – my dad told me as a young boy that when a party asks for a recount they have lost the seat. I can never remember that being wrong!
Recounts have changed results though. At Peterborough in 1966 Labour was 162 votes ahead on first two counts. After 7 recounts the Tories held on by 3 votes.
So looking at the AZ map on the NYTimes site they are saying they believe about 520.000 votes outstanding and Biden is up by 216,000 votes, Looking at the county returns so far (which Trump won most of last time of course) I dont see the numbers there for Trump. Unless I'm missing something ? Even if Trump won all the remaining votes 2-1 he would be short. And some counties are quite strong D leaning
My guess is that Biden wins PA, WI, MI, AZ but loses NV.
NC could also enter the Democrat column if enough late arriving postal votes come in.
My guess AZ, NV, NC = Trump; WI / MI = Biden, PA = too close to call
We have a whole week of mail in ballots for the Dems to receive in Arizona, why wouldn't you expect them to be overwhelmingly for Biden?
Again, it comes back to whether the 2018 dynamic is the same as 2020. If it is, you are right. If it is not, and a lot of this has already been subsumed in the general voting trends. I don't know whether the comment about AZ mail-in being different from mid west is true
Both sides used VBM in Arizona, it's the normal method for elections. This is from MAGA twitter and I have no pleasure in sharing it but I think it's likely to be accurate
So AZ + NC + GA + NV + ME-2 + Alaska gets Trump to 261.
So we are right back again to all on PA as I think MI and WI are gone for Trump
Trump at 5.5 looks value at moment.
Talk of recount for WI.
There will be a recount and it won't change anything, just like there are recounts and they never change anything in the UK.
I was just thinking that – my dad told me as a young boy that when a party asks for a recount they have lost the seat. I can never remember that being wrong!
Recounts have changed results though. At Peterborough in 1966 Labour was 162 votes ahead on first two counts. After 7 recounts the Tories held on by 3 votes.
Is there a more recent example? I will admit I can’t think of one but your knowledge of such things is much greater than mine.
I can remember Winchester 1997, where after several recounts the Liberal Democrats won by two. Then the Tories forced an entire rerun and lost by thousands.
What happened with Steve Baker? He was practically in tears the other day, declaring that his meeting with the scientists had utterly convinced him of Boris's lockdown wisdom.
So looking at the AZ map on the NYTimes site they are saying they believe about 520.000 votes outstanding and Biden is up by 216,000 votes, Looking at the county returns so far (which Trump won most of last time of course) I dont see the numbers there for Trump. Unless I'm missing something ? Even if Trump won all the remaining votes 2-1 he would be short. And some counties are quite strong D leaning
I think you have looked at the absentee vote difference, not the state difference. The state difference is still 90K
So looking at the AZ map on the NYTimes site they are saying they believe about 520.000 votes outstanding and Biden is up by 216,000 votes, Looking at the county returns so far (which Trump won most of last time of course) I dont see the numbers there for Trump. Unless I'm missing something ? Even if Trump won all the remaining votes 2-1 he would be short. And some counties are quite strong D leaning
Excellent
Sorry..Mal got it mixed up - the absolute lead is 90K, he was looking at absentee votes only
What happened with Steve Baker? He was practically in tears the other days, declaring that his meeting with the scientists had utterly convinced him of Boris's lockdown wisdom.
He remembered he was Brexit Hard Man, and Brexit Hard Men don't back down?
If there are still 1.4m ballots to count in Pennsylvania* and Biden is only 400000 behind then he only needs about 63% to win, right?
*Sky just showed 5.6m votes counted with 80% done. I assume I've got this right.
470k behind, supposedly 1.2m ballots still to count so he needs just around 70%. I think it should still be doable because the remaining votes are coming from strong Dem areas, but I don't think it's guaranteed. If Trump wins PA then he only needs to take NV in addition to NC and GA to win.
More ballots than that I think – PA secretary of state said millions (plural) about an hour ago live on CNN.
1.2m is "millions" just not very many!
No it's not "millions" - there's no plural about it. There is no case for singular being the normal plural.
What happened with Steve Baker? He was practically in tears the other days, declaring that his meeting with the scientists had utterly convinced him of Boris's lockdown wisdom.
He remembered he was Brexit Hard Man, and Brexit Hard Men don't back down?
He found out the data he was shown was somewhat disengenious?
Comments
https://twitter.com/MSterling27/status/1323941768526766081?s=20
https://twitter.com/ClarkeMicah/status/1324035583937777665?s=20
https://twitter.com/ClarkeMicah/status/1324035132320292865?s=20
https://www.lawfareblog.com/state-laws-may-decide-disputed-2020-election
This is what it says about the electors:
"Presidential electors in Nebraska are required to cast their ballots for the candidate who won the highest number of votes in their district. A presidential elector who refuses to present a ballot, who attempts to present an unmarked ballot, or who casts a vote contrary to that requirement vacates the office of elector. In such a case, the governor will appoint a replacement."
Now what is unclear from this is whether the elector's vote is deemed invalid if they vote for a candidate other than who won the district. So can the elector for NE-02 be unfaithful and, if so, even if dismissed by the Governor (a Republican), does their vote still count?
He hoped in vain, though.
There will be ones coming in tomorrow and Friday
Plus the ones that will "magically appear overnight" and put Trump behind!!!
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1324033189002809344?s=20
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1324034077016707072?s=20
I can remember Winchester 1997, where after several recounts the Liberal Democrats won by two. Then the Tories forced an entire rerun and lost by thousands.