A huge amount of magnanimity* is needed if Biden does win.
He will have been bloody lucky, despite the national lead, and he will have to disprove Republican fears about him and the Dems in office if he wants to avoid widespread disorder - particularly given how hard and deep rural areas have gone red. Totally uber red.
(*yes, I know Trump never did this but you need to expect more from Biden otherwise both parties will descend into an ever more vicious tit-for-tat, and it will fuel the Rep selection of the next candidate as Trump-lite)
No. You and the rest of the right always want the left to hand over their balls before entry. Not this time.
And this is how nasty cultural divisions persist, ladies & gentlemen, for all our disbenefit.
It takes courage, yes. It takes leadership, yes. It takes humility, yes.
Obstinacy only leads down one path.
Yes, you are quite right on that. The good news is that Joe Biden seems to understand this very well; of course he has to win first!
In retrospect Kamala Harris probably wasn't the best VP choice. He should have gone for Amy Klobuchar.
Someone closer to an Andrew Yang could reach out across the divide. He had some powerful things to say about dealing with the effects of globalisation on the low income/deprived areas.
The thing about "reaching out over the divide", is that the Democrats have enough problems with managing their own internal divide (between soft left Biden-style moderates and Squad-type radicals), without worrying about bringing centrists and the soft right in as well. Any attempt by the moderates at pacifying the latter group inevitably results in problems with Sanders/AOC etc supporters. Biden seems to have done just enough to thread the needle this time, but I think in general the US right is more united than the left, as it is in the UK.
As I said only a few days ago I was once given the task of shredding late arrived ballots at my local council. This was about four months after the elections by the way. Once of the most boring jobs I've had.
Would have been more exciting had it been before the election.
Eh, after a few time even then it becomes routine...
No need to shred before the election. We rub out the pencil and change the votes in our favour.
Just been talking to a very pleasant American chap in a local cafe, who was pleased to hear me report that the mood here is a likely Biden win but said that he thinks it is looking increasingly Trumpy.
How relaxing it is to observe the political sound and fury of another country for a bit, rather than be morosely stuck in our own.
One positive of such a close result, hopefully it will put an end to the nonsense of defund the police movement even been entertained....well other than Portland, who upcoming mayoral election is between the current idiot and somebody even more radical.
Yes. Putting my betting wishes to one side, my ideal was a narrow Biden win (to get rid of ogre Trump who is a disgrace to the US) with GOP holding the Senate.
My reason was the identity politics stuff. I think Biden will squeak it, but he would have won more handsomely if the dems weren`t so liable to be captured by the illiberal garbage and virtue signalling of the far left. (We`ll never know how many votes Biden lost by "taking the knee" for instance).
You have no way of knowing he lost any then. I heard a woman in Florida saying the reason they were voting Trump was because Kemala would take away their guns. Doing the right thing loses some votes but gains others.
I'm beginning to relax. Was a scary night because at one stage things looked like they were sliding badly but then if you looked into the subsets Biden was clearly winning swings from 2016 - crucially in the suburbs. And I'll give John King on CNN kudos for one vital statement: 'to win the Presidency you have to win the suburbs.'
I held my nerve and came back in when Biden dipped into the 260s ECV but I'm not sure I'm going to spread bet again for a while. I've had a bloody lucky escape. A bit like Joe Biden in a way.
Can I just make a point, that whatever happens a large percentage of Americans have decided Trump is shit and they want him out. There is hope for the world.
Just been talking to a very pleasant American chap in a local cafe, who was pleased to hear me report that the mood here is a likely Biden win but said that he thinks it is looking increasingly Trumpy.
How relaxing it is to observe the political sound and fury of another country for a bit, rather than be morosely stuck in our own.
Absolutely. Even better when it is not one as world impacting as the USA election.
Can I just make a point, that whatever happens a large percentage of Americans have decided Trump is shit and they want him out. There is hope for the world.
The problem is that the ones with all the guns disagree....
I'm beginning to relax. Was a scary night because at one stage things looked like they were sliding badly but then if you looked into the subsets Biden was clearly winning swings from 2016 - crucially in the suburbs. And I'll give John King on CNN kudos for one vital statement: 'to win the Presidency you have to win the suburbs.'
I held my nerve and came back in when Biden dipped into the 260s ECV but I'm not sure I'm going to spread bet again for a while. I've had a bloody lucky escape. A bit like Joe Biden in a way.
of course this will mean weeks and months of legal nonsense from Trump but the fact Biden has 270+ and will win the Nat Vote clearly is a better position than not. I also sense PA could possibly still flip, GA maybe just to stay red
I hope those bars aren’t to scale, because if they are, the maths is clearly wrong. The Trump advantage in remaining on the day votes doesn’t show at all
So is it turning out that the polls weren't that wrong, or were they still out
They were certainly miles out in Florida and pretty out in the rest of the South, better in the West as they were last time and how they were in the rustbelt we will only find out once all the ballots are in.
Nationally they got Biden's voteshare about right but significantly underestimated the Trump voteshare
Clearly Biden has done really well in suburbs and cities around the country. But Trumps vote has held up incredibly well. The US really is a nation divided
Trump's vote has done better than hold up. He's turned out lots of voters who didn't vote for him last time.
This is not the picture of a country turning against the last four years.
Overall, it looks like Republicans in Congress outperformed Trump.
Not in the House which the Democrats look certain to have held
I expect the Democratic lead in percentage terms for the House elections will be less than at Presidential level. The Republicans are up four seats so far, although I agree the Democrats have held it.
At Senate level, I don't think there's much doubt that their incumbents have outperformed Trump.
If you were going to steal this election for the Dems, by finding lots of postal votes stuffed down the sofa, you couldn't do it in this scenario without grossly inflating the turnout could you?
If you were going to steal this election for the Dems, by finding lots of postal votes stuffed down the sofa, you couldn't do it in this scenario without grossly inflating the turnout could you?
Its looking a lot more reassuring than it was in the middle of the night.
Though that would be why Trump threw his tantrum this morning, he knew it was coming.
Yes exactly. With hindsight, he knew.
The 'Wisconsin moment' was extraordinary. Anyone who was up for it will know what I mean. It was Sunderland all over again.
I am still so confused about when it was, can you remember the time? It must have been when I woke up in the middle of the night maybe? I was there for it.
So is it turning out that the polls weren't that wrong, or were they still out
I think this is going to look like they were about right on the national share.
It just masked some remarkable subsets. The latino vote in Florida for example. And in terms of the Electoral College, if Joe Biden does this then it's been by the narrowest of margins in some of the midwest.
Given the efforts at voter suppression - particularly in black neighbourhoods - with people having to queue for hours to vote in person, is it any wonder why people would prefer a postal ballot when there is supposed to be social distancing going on.
Given the turnout figures can anyone imagine what the carnage would have been if there WEREN'T all these postal ballots?
Overall, it looks like Republicans in Congress outperformed Trump.
Not in the House which the Democrats look certain to have held
I expect the Democratic lead in percentage terms for the House elections will be less than at Presidential level. The Republicans are up four seats so far, although I agree the Democrats have held it.
At Senate level, I don't think there's much doubt that their incumbents have outperformed Trump.
When Trump was not on the ballot in 2018 though they were trounced, if the GOP Congressional candidates do outperform Trump it is only because they got votes from Trump voters who stayed home in 2018 as well as traditional Republicans a few of whom may not have voted for Trump
If you were going to steal this election for the Dems, by finding lots of postal votes stuffed down the sofa, you couldn't do it in this scenario without grossly inflating the turnout could you?
There was much annoying pro-Trump trolling early this morning, but I think you just took the prize.
So is it turning out that the polls weren't that wrong, or were they still out
The polls were out but not far enough out in every state that mattered for Trump to win overall (it seems). National polls clearly reflected Biden making big gains but a lot in states he either couldnt win or just missed (such as TX NC etc). Seems most state poll averages are several % out though so not a good night for the pollsters but not a total disaster I'd say. But perhaps others will disagree
A huge amount of magnanimity* is needed if Biden does win.
He will have been bloody lucky, despite the national lead, and he will have to disprove Republican fears about him and the Dems in office if he wants to avoid widespread disorder - particularly given how hard and deep rural areas have gone red. Totally uber red.
(*yes, I know Trump never did this but you need to expect more from Biden otherwise both parties will descend into an ever more vicious tit-for-tat, and it will fuel the Rep selection of the next candidate as Trump-lite)
No. You and the rest of the right always want the left to hand over their balls before entry. Not this time.
And this is how nasty cultural divisions persist, ladies & gentlemen, for all our disbenefit.
It takes courage, yes. It takes leadership, yes. It takes humility, yes.
Obstinacy only leads down one path.
Yes, you are quite right on that. The good news is that Joe Biden seems to understand this very well; of course he has to win first!
In retrospect Kamala Harris probably wasn't the best VP choice. He should have gone for Amy Klobuchar.
Someone closer to an Andrew Yang could reach out across the divide. He had some powerful things to say about dealing with the effects of globalisation on the low income/deprived areas.
The thing about "reaching out over the divide", is that the Democrats have enough problems with managing their own internal divide (between soft left Biden-style moderates and Squad-type radicals), without worrying about bringing centrists and the soft right in as well. Any attempt by the moderates at pacifying the latter group inevitably results in problems with Sanders/AOC etc supporters. Biden seems to have done just enough to thread the needle this time, but I think in general the US right is more united than the left, as it is in the UK.
Sanders/AOC would have no problem with helping the deprived over the effects of globalisation - I'm talking about building a coalition on common interests.
Clearly Biden has done really well in suburbs and cities around the country. But Trumps vote has held up incredibly well. The US really is a nation divided
Trump's vote has done better than hold up. He's turned out lots of voters who didn't vote for him last time.
This is not the picture of a country turning against the last four years.
And even if Trump does lose now he is close enough he is almost certain to either run again in 2024, probably against Harris assuming Biden only serves one term or to anoint Eric or Ivanka Trump who will compete for the nomination with VP Pence instead to be Trump's heir apparent.
This result guarantees the stranglehold of Team Trump over the GOP probably for at least the majority of the next decade, it needed a Biden landslide to enable establishment moderates like Romney, Kasich and Haley within the GOP to regain control of the party and that did not happen
Its looking a lot more reassuring than it was in the middle of the night.
Though that would be why Trump threw his tantrum this morning, he knew it was coming.
Yes exactly. With hindsight, he knew.
The 'Wisconsin moment' was extraordinary. Anyone who was up for it will know what I mean. It was Sunderland all over again.
I am still so confused about when it was, can you remember the time? It must have been when I woke up in the middle of the night maybe? I was there for it.
I might be nerdy and scroll back later to give you the definitive answer
Its looking a lot more reassuring than it was in the middle of the night.
Though that would be why Trump threw his tantrum this morning, he knew it was coming.
Yes exactly. With hindsight, he knew.
The 'Wisconsin moment' was extraordinary. Anyone who was up for it will know what I mean. It was Sunderland all over again.
When Trump talked about calling the election and deploying lawyers so early in the night, he must have had some kind of internals from the rust belt states and realised that he probably wasn't building up enough on day votes to offset the huge postal votes that came in later or are still coming in
Clearly Biden has done really well in suburbs and cities around the country. But Trumps vote has held up incredibly well. The US really is a nation divided
Trump's vote has done better than hold up. He's turned out lots of voters who didn't vote for him last time.
This is not the picture of a country turning against the last four years.
And even if Trump does lose now he is close enough he is almost certain to run again in 2024,
I think there's next to no chance that the GOP will return to Trump.
If the Democrats were smart about this, they would build bridges to the white working classes. I think Biden gets that.
Unfortunately, I think the lesson that the left of the party will take from this is they can win an election without needing to address the concerns of white non-urban voters and, critically, that all they need to do to make sure the vote is not close next time is do a lot more for the Hispanic community and thus strengthen the whole identity politics movement.
Conversely, I suspect the Republicans will realise that social conservatism is definitely the way forwards to attract more Hispanic / Black votes.
Its looking a lot more reassuring than it was in the middle of the night.
Though that would be why Trump threw his tantrum this morning, he knew it was coming.
Yes exactly. With hindsight, he knew.
The 'Wisconsin moment' was extraordinary. Anyone who was up for it will know what I mean. It was Sunderland all over again.
I am still so confused about when it was, can you remember the time? It must have been when I woke up in the middle of the night maybe? I was there for it.
I might be nerdy and scroll back later to give you the definitive answer
Its looking a lot more reassuring than it was in the middle of the night.
Though that would be why Trump threw his tantrum this morning, he knew it was coming.
Yes exactly. With hindsight, he knew.
The 'Wisconsin moment' was extraordinary. Anyone who was up for it will know what I mean. It was Sunderland all over again.
I am still so confused about when it was, can you remember the time? It must have been when I woke up in the middle of the night maybe? I was there for it.
I might be nerdy and scroll back later to give you the definitive answer
I’m down £40 on the election. I cashed out my £10 buy of Biden 285+ ECVs at a loss of -£10 and also lost £30 on backing Biden is one of the landslide bands. Disappointing not to have made any money but really pleased at the moment with Biden strong favourite again. Extraordinary election!
If you were going to steal this election for the Dems, by finding lots of postal votes stuffed down the sofa, you couldn't do it in this scenario without grossly inflating the turnout could you?
There was much annoying pro-Trump trolling early this morning, but I think you just took the prize.
Thanks. I am just trying to get it straight in my head. IF this happened, it would show as significantly elevated turnout in the 'late Biden surge' states that counted their postal ballots last, and turnout being as predicted, or at least significantly lower, in the 'Trump surge' states where they were counted first.
I'd say American democracy absolutely is in fine fettle if it means they see the back of the weird sociopath and his strange antics but leaving a GOP controlled senate in place. Just the job.
If you were going to steal this election for the Dems, by finding lots of postal votes stuffed down the sofa, you couldn't do it in this scenario without grossly inflating the turnout could you?
There was much annoying pro-Trump trolling early this morning, but I think you just took the prize.
Thanks. I am just trying to get it straight in my head. IF this happened, it would show as significantly elevated turnout in the 'late Biden surge' states that counted their postal ballots last, and turnout being as predicted, or at least significantly lower, in the 'Trump surge' states where they were counted first.
Massive increases in turnout was predicted by all the polls. Figures of up to 20% of voters who didn't vote last time.
If the Democrats were smart about this, they would build bridges to the white working classes. I think Biden gets that.
Unfortunately, I think the lesson that the left of the party will take from this is they can win an election without needing to address the concerns of white non-urban voters and, critically, that all they need to do to make sure the vote is not close next time is do a lot more for the Hispanic community and thus strengthen the whole identity politics movement.
Conversely, I suspect the Republicans will realise that social conservatism is definitely the way forwards to attract more Hispanic / Black votes.
If Biden does win yes look for a GOP landslide in the 2022 midterms
You are going to have near half of America thinking that Biden is the Election Thief in Chief. Not good.
I actually think that it would be best for the USA for the Supreme Court to rule on this election. To uphold Biden as President. A Trump-stacked Supreme Court saying, er, actually there was no fraud and Biden is legitimately the President could defuse a significant number. Although this situation has the scope to go BADLY. Very badly. For example, I could see many many millions of Trump voters refusing to pay taxes. "No taxation without representation" would be their battle cry.
Its looking a lot more reassuring than it was in the middle of the night.
Though that would be why Trump threw his tantrum this morning, he knew it was coming.
Yes exactly. With hindsight, he knew.
The 'Wisconsin moment' was extraordinary. Anyone who was up for it will know what I mean. It was Sunderland all over again.
I am still so confused about when it was, can you remember the time? It must have been when I woke up in the middle of the night maybe? I was there for it.
I might be nerdy and scroll back later to give you the definitive answer
I think it was about 9.30am
Okay, that makes some sort of sense.
I was going to say, I went to bed sure that Trump had won.
Overall, it looks like Republicans in Congress outperformed Trump.
Not in the House which the Democrats look certain to have held
I expect the Democratic lead in percentage terms for the House elections will be less than at Presidential level. The Republicans are up four seats so far, although I agree the Democrats have held it.
At Senate level, I don't think there's much doubt that their incumbents have outperformed Trump.
Is that true? There seem to be several states (most of them?) where Trump has done better than the Republican senate incumbents.
Clearly Biden has done really well in suburbs and cities around the country. But Trumps vote has held up incredibly well. The US really is a nation divided
Trump's vote has done better than hold up. He's turned out lots of voters who didn't vote for him last time.
This is not the picture of a country turning against the last four years.
And even if Trump does lose now he is close enough he is almost certain to run again in 2024,
I think there's next to no chance that the GOP will return to Trump.
By 2021 the knives will be out. And how.
It is the base who pick the nominee and for them it will be 'Donald Wuz Robbed'
In 2016 Trump received 63 million votes only +2.1 million votes on Romney 2012 and a lower vote share by 1.1pp.
Hard to tell where the vote share will end up, but he's already +3.8 million votes on 2016.
Obama lost votes between 2008 and 2012. Bush II gained 11.6 million votes.
There's a lot of voters out there for whom Trump exceeded their expectations and voted for him this time when hatred of Clinton didn't make them do so last time.
Even if Biden wins I feel that's important politically.
You are going to have near half of America thinking that Biden is the Election Thief in Chief. Not good.
I actually think that it would be best for the USA for the Supreme Court to rule on this election. To uphold Biden as President. A Trump-stacked Supreme Court saying, er, actually there was no fraud and Biden is legitimately the President could defuse a significant number. Although this situation has the scope to go BADLY. Very badly. For example, I could see many many millions of Trump voters refusing to pay taxes. "No taxation without representation" would be their battle cry.
They could pay their taxes to China like their leader instead.
If the Democrats were smart about this, they would build bridges to the white working classes. I think Biden gets that.
Unfortunately, I think the lesson that the left of the party will take from this is they can win an election without needing to address the concerns of white non-urban voters and, critically, that all they need to do to make sure the vote is not close next time is do a lot more for the Hispanic community and thus strengthen the whole identity politics movement.
Conversely, I suspect the Republicans will realise that social conservatism is definitely the way forwards to attract more Hispanic / Black votes.
If Biden does win yes look for a GOP landslide in the 2022 midterms
With Biden/Harris looking the lamest of lame ducks.
Clearly Biden has done really well in suburbs and cities around the country. But Trumps vote has held up incredibly well. The US really is a nation divided
Trump's vote has done better than hold up. He's turned out lots of voters who didn't vote for him last time.
This is not the picture of a country turning against the last four years.
And even if Trump does lose now he is close enough he is almost certain to run again in 2024,
I think there's next to no chance that the GOP will return to Trump.
By 2021 the knives will be out. And how.
That's dreadful. What's the point of loving guns more than anything in the world if not to use them rather than knives?
You are going to have near half of America thinking that Biden is the Election Thief in Chief. Not good.
I actually think that it would be best for the USA for the Supreme Court to rule on this election. To uphold Biden as President. A Trump-stacked Supreme Court saying, er, actually there was no fraud and Biden is legitimately the President could defuse a significant number. Although this situation has the scope to go BADLY. Very badly. For example, I could see many many millions of Trump voters refusing to pay taxes. "No taxation without representation" would be their battle cry.
Less highmindedly, this is why I am considering greening up -- the prospect of markets being suspended for weeks while the legal fraternity has its two penn'orth.
You are going to have near half of America thinking that Biden is the Election Thief in Chief. Not good.
I actually think that it would be best for the USA for the Supreme Court to rule on this election. To uphold Biden as President. A Trump-stacked Supreme Court saying, er, actually there was no fraud and Biden is legitimately the President could defuse a significant number. Although this situation has the scope to go BADLY. Very badly. For example, I could see many many millions of Trump voters refusing to pay taxes. "No taxation without representation" would be their battle cry.
I agree. I am not (contrary to what some may think) alleging vote rigging, but in this instance I think innocence will need to be proven somehow to settle the issue.
I'd say American democracy absolutely is in fine fettle if it means they see the back of the weird sociopath and his strange antics but leaving a GOP controlled senate in place. Just the job.
Also good for racial partisan polarization to decline, it's weird for nearly all the black people to vote for one party, and having black supporters should help make the GOP less racist.
From the lack of comment I assume nothing in from Puerto Rico on their statehood plebisicite? Waiting til the mainland stuff is concluded perhaps.
After 88% votes in it is Yes 52.29%
Officially the Republicans back statehood if they vote for it, Republican Senator Marco Rubio does especially. So it will be interesting to see what happens.
One positive of such a close result, hopefully it will put an end to the nonsense of defund the police movement even been entertained....well other than Portland, who upcoming mayoral election is between the current idiot and somebody even more radical.
Yes. Putting my betting wishes to one side, my ideal was a narrow Biden win (to get rid of ogre Trump who is a disgrace to the US) with GOP holding the Senate.
My reason was the identity politics stuff. I think Biden will squeak it, but he would have won more handsomely if the dems weren`t so liable to be captured by the illiberal garbage and virtue signalling of the far left. (We`ll never know how many votes Biden lost by "taking the knee" for instance).
You have no way of knowing he lost any then. I heard a woman in Florida saying the reason they were voting Trump was because Kemala would take away their guns. Doing the right thing loses some votes but gains others.
If you think "taking the knee" was the right thing then I`ll leave that with you. It`s going to come back and bite Starmer in the arse big style at the next election.
Michigan is going to be an easy win for Biden isn't it?
The way today has gone I dont like to say anything is easy but both MI and WI look very good for him, even PA might flip though it will be very close either way. I'd love GA to also flip to make the EV gap a little more visible, but the way the year and election has gone, Biden winning with 270 and Trump deploying lawyers like clones of Mr Smith from the Matrix, is probably fitting for 2020.
In 2016 Trump received 63 million votes only +2.1 million votes on Romney 2012 and a lower vote share by 1.1pp.
Hard to tell where the vote share will end up, but he's already +3.8 million votes on 2016.
Obama lost votes between 2008 and 2012. Bush II gained 11.6 million votes.
There's a lot of voters out there for whom Trump exceeded their expectations and voted for him this time when hatred of Clinton didn't make them do so last time.
Even if Biden wins I feel that's important politically.
Not only has Biden won the most votes for any Democratic candidate bar Obama in 2008 but so today has Trump won the most votes for any Republican candidate ever and the highest voteshare for the GOP nominee since George W Bush in 2004, that must not be forgotten, it is Trump's party still and probably will remain so for the rest of this decade now
If you were going to steal this election for the Dems, by finding lots of postal votes stuffed down the sofa, you couldn't do it in this scenario without grossly inflating the turnout could you?
There was much annoying pro-Trump trolling early this morning, but I think you just took the prize.
Thanks. I am just trying to get it straight in my head. IF this happened, it would show as significantly elevated turnout in the 'late Biden surge' states that counted their postal ballots last, and turnout being as predicted, or at least significantly lower, in the 'Trump surge' states where they were counted first.
At the end of the day, this is going to the SC. I’ve been told on good authority that the reason the Rs rushed through Barrett was not because they thought they would lose the Senate but that they were “terrified” (and this is their word, not mine) that the Democrats would continue to find postal ballots until the Ds won in the states. It’s essentially what happened in several of the CA House seats in 2018 (it was never proved but ballot harvesting was suspected).
This argument came from a very well connected, establishment Republican who is anti-Trump
If you were going to steal this election for the Dems, by finding lots of postal votes stuffed down the sofa, you couldn't do it in this scenario without grossly inflating the turnout could you?
There was much annoying pro-Trump trolling early this morning, but I think you just took the prize.
Thanks. I am just trying to get it straight in my head. IF this happened, it would show as significantly elevated turnout in the 'late Biden surge' states that counted their postal ballots last, and turnout being as predicted, or at least significantly lower, in the 'Trump surge' states where they were counted first.
Massive increases in turnout was predicted by all the polls. Figures of up to 20% of voters who didn't vote last time.
Yes, and of that trend is universal there will be no grounds for suspicion. However, if it is markedly up against predictions in areas where Biden has won on postals, and consists of postal ballots, it looks odd.
I'd say American democracy absolutely is in fine fettle if it means they see the back of the weird sociopath and his strange antics but leaving a GOP controlled senate in place. Just the job.
I wonder if the budget deficit will suddenly become a key issue for GOP senators again in the next 4 years when they havent given a toss about it for the last 4. I wonder.......
What a night, went to bed at 3:45am with Trump firmly in control. Woke up at 7am and he's almost got it in the bag, then a few hours later Biden looks like he's won. Crazy.
It was nerve wracking enough watching it from afar, so I'm glad I didn't bet anything on it as well.
You are going to have near half of America thinking that Biden is the Election Thief in Chief. Not good.
I actually think that it would be best for the USA for the Supreme Court to rule on this election. To uphold Biden as President. A Trump-stacked Supreme Court saying, er, actually there was no fraud and Biden is legitimately the President could defuse a significant number. Although this situation has the scope to go BADLY. Very badly. For example, I could see many many millions of Trump voters refusing to pay taxes. "No taxation without representation" would be their battle cry.
And if the Trump-packed Supreme Court finds in favour of Trump with the votes and EC awarded to Biden - how will that make things better.
Full credit to the Biden campaign if they have pulled this off. They could have succumbed to the siren song in places like TX and OH and let the Mid west slip through their fingers, but they were ruthlessy focussed on the WIMIPA states.
Comments
What a day. Just arrived at work and its all kicking off... Cancer treatments should continue, is my understanding.
Hips etc are what gets cancelled first.
Rutland: England's McDonald's-free county gets restaurant
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-leicestershire-54794623
How relaxing it is to observe the political sound and fury of another country for a bit, rather than be morosely stuck in our own.
I held my nerve and came back in when Biden dipped into the 260s ECV but I'm not sure I'm going to spread bet again for a while. I've had a bloody lucky escape. A bit like Joe Biden in a way.
Though that would be why Trump threw his tantrum this morning, he knew it was coming.
The 'Wisconsin moment' was extraordinary. Anyone who was up for it will know what I mean. It was Sunderland all over again.
Nationally they got Biden's voteshare about right but significantly underestimated the Trump voteshare
This is not the picture of a country turning against the last four years.
At Senate level, I don't think there's much doubt that their incumbents have outperformed Trump.
It just masked some remarkable subsets. The latino vote in Florida for example. And in terms of the Electoral College, if Joe Biden does this then it's been by the narrowest of margins in some of the midwest.
Given the turnout figures can anyone imagine what the carnage would have been if there WEREN'T all these postal ballots?
Disclaimer: No wikipedia was used in the creation of this post
This result guarantees the stranglehold of Team Trump over the GOP probably for at least the majority of the next decade, it needed a Biden landslide to enable establishment moderates like Romney, Kasich and Haley within the GOP to regain control of the party and that did not happen
By 2021 the knives will be out. And how.
Unfortunately, I think the lesson that the left of the party will take from this is they can win an election without needing to address the concerns of white non-urban voters and, critically, that all they need to do to make sure the vote is not close next time is do a lot more for the Hispanic community and thus strengthen the whole identity politics movement.
Conversely, I suspect the Republicans will realise that social conservatism is definitely the way forwards to attract more Hispanic / Black votes.
"Don't let the door hit your fat arse as you leave"
I actually think that it would be best for the USA for the Supreme Court to rule on this election. To uphold Biden as President. A Trump-stacked Supreme Court saying, er, actually there was no fraud and Biden is legitimately the President could defuse a significant number. Although this situation has the scope to go BADLY. Very badly. For example, I could see many many millions of Trump voters refusing to pay taxes. "No taxation without representation" would be their battle cry.
I was going to say, I went to bed sure that Trump had won.
Hard to tell where the vote share will end up, but he's already +3.8 million votes on 2016.
Obama lost votes between 2008 and 2012. Bush II gained 11.6 million votes.
There's a lot of voters out there for whom Trump exceeded their expectations and voted for him this time when hatred of Clinton didn't make them do so last time.
Even if Biden wins I feel that's important politically.
https://twitter.com/jessieopie/status/1323926191649263617
Margin is currently over 0.5% with probably more Biden votes to come, so probably finish closer to 1%.
Officially the Republicans back statehood if they vote for it, Republican Senator Marco Rubio does especially. So it will be interesting to see what happens.
BBC guy saying Wisconsin very tight.
https://twitter.com/MSterling27/status/1323941768526766081
This argument came from a very well connected, establishment Republican who is anti-Trump
It was nerve wracking enough watching it from afar, so I'm glad I didn't bet anything on it as well.
At the moment, it's 0.72%, so there's a good chance it'll be outside the 1%.