As gap on Betfair gets closer is Florida an outlier? – politicalbetting.com
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How do they pronounce it?williamglenn said:Breaking: Americans still can't pronounce buoy
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I do have a suspicion that, once again, many Democrats didn't deep down, think they could lose this (not that they have, yet), even as they said the right things about not taking things for granted. Whilst many on this side of the pond will have predicted and/or wanted a Biden victory too, the greater distance from events may have made it easier to genuinely believe Trump could still pull it off.0
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My forecast of Trump 278 - 260 Biden is looking fairly likely unfortunately.
So money in the bank but misery in the heart!
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Maybe, but he can squeak a win without it, as long as he gets PA.Alistair said:
If the Hispanic vote is swinging as it has die then Nevada is gone for Biden.Richard_Nabavi said:Biden still has a good chance of winning. OH and TX are probably out of reach, but they always were long-shots. He needs WI MI NV and PA, and maybe AZ.
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Trump voters don't talk to pollsters, it's the only thing that makes sense.CorrectHorseBattery said:Interesting though, polls here got 2019 spot on, what on Earth has gone on in the USA then?
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I always said she was unfairly maligned and Trump was underestimated as a campaigner.Casino_Royale said:One person I bet is smiling tonight..
Hillary Clinton.2 -
Now I'm falling for it!rcs1000 said:
MICHIGAN COUNTS ON THE DAY FIRST!Mortimer said:
OH and MI staying GOP means PA and WI are moot....Mysticrose said:I think the mistake I've made on here is saying the it will all be over before Pennsylvania declares. In fact, Pa. could be extremely important.
But this is far too close to call. The critical battles are in Ohio then Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Wisconsin0 -
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In that case, maybe it’s not worth staying up if we aren’t going to know anytime soon.Andy_JS said:
Maybe but I don't think we'll get a definitive result for a few days.The_Apocalypse said:Trump is going to do it again, isn’t he.
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Am I missing something in VA a state Biden was supposed to win easily. He's 300,000 votes down with nearly half the votes in? Where on earth is he going to find those?0
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My point is still, however, would it have been reasonable for Biden to change tactics 2 weeks ago when he was 9% up nationally and with leads in 350-400 EC votes? I don't think so, and even if he loses I can't criticise someone for following a strategy which delivers that result prior to election night. You can only make decisions from the data you have at the time.Gaussian said:
Trouble was that from the second debate onwards, Trump was quite disciplined by his standards.Quincel said:
I'm going to say this now, before the results come in, just as I said after the 2016 results. Based on the polls *before* the election I think Biden's strategy is hard to criticise. He was following a plan and it looked like it was working. If he loses then that sucks, but I don't think the evidence was there before election night that Biden wasn't giving himself a great shot with his low-key 'Let Trump attract bad publicity' campaign.Gaussian said:
Didn't consistently attack on his taxes ("Make him pay!") or general madness ("Shut him up!") either.not_on_fire said:
I don't understand why the Biden campaign didn't dig up more of Trump's worst moments from 2016. Pussy-grabbing and all thatGaussian said:
Last time Trump made much of The Wall and nasty hombres. Much less of that this time.CorrectHorseBattery said:What on Earth has happened with Hispanics
Biden's campaign was so low key that some people probably felt taken for granted.0 -
Except Trafalgar and men with bowtiesMaxPB said:
Trump voters don't talk to pollsters, it's the only thing that makes sense.CorrectHorseBattery said:Interesting though, polls here got 2019 spot on, what on Earth has gone on in the USA then?
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This is going to be the worst possible result, as in a very narrow victory.0
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Bettingwise, I've no idea. I should cut my losses or red up, but on the other hand 11/4 Biden is probably value.0
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Going to bed. It doesn't look like we will get a winner tonight.
My best guess is Biden ekes out a narrow win overall but it probably ends up in the courts.0 -
Trump is now 1.36.
That seems mad to me. Edit: shorter than Biden has even been.0 -
Early votes not counted yetMal557 said:Am I missing something in VA a state Biden was supposed to win easily. He's 300,000 votes down with nearly half the votes in? Where on earth is he going to find those?
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Is a bit early to say the polls got it wrong. So far the ones called all were very close poll (1-2 points) wise and counting is still ongoing. Seems people making predictions saw 2 point Biden lead in the south as locked in. If MI, WI are trump wins then things went horribly wrong for the pollsters.CorrectHorseBattery said:Interesting though, polls here got 2019 spot on, what on Earth has gone on in the USA then?
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That's the plus for me of a Trump win. That and the comedy value for another four years.Andy_JS said:0 -
As you said a Major 1992 factor, Trump campaigning until the end despite being behind in the polls.williamglenn said:
I always said she was unfairly maligned and Trump was underestimated as a campaigner.Casino_Royale said:One person I bet is smiling tonight..
Hillary Clinton.
Biden of course a friend of Kinnock and seems he may have had the same electoral success too2 -
Hickenlooper wins in Colorado. With the House safely in their hands, Dems are two seats away from controlling Congress.0
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Worse than that, it could drag on for days while postal votes are counted, and then weeks if it goes to court in tight states.FrancisUrquhart said:This is going to be the worst possible result, as in a very narrow victory.
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Maybe RCP wasn't so wrong after all...0
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Biden still has several options, vast majority of combinations of 3 of these 5 should do:
PA, MI, WI, OH, AZ0 -
That Pennsylvania is really important! He was working a way to make Biden still 91% likely ...Stocky said:
Can you summarise what he says please?Mysticrose said:Nate is on ABC now
Ahem ...
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It's more complex than that.MaxPB said:
Trump voters don't talk to pollsters, it's the only thing that makes sense.CorrectHorseBattery said:Interesting though, polls here got 2019 spot on, what on Earth has gone on in the USA then?
Texas, they're spot on, or maybe a little low for the Dems.
Florida, they were wildly out.
Ohio is going to be very close, as absentee ballots from Franklin have not been counted yet. And the polls had that as a narrow Trump win,
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That's a big positive.Andy_JS said:2 -
Serious move towards Trump on Betdata.0
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Have to agreeCasino_Royale said:
That's a big positive.Andy_JS said:0 -
Trafalgar had:
Ohio
Trump 49%
Biden 44%
That's clearly bollocks.1 -
Why is Trump near evens at 300-329 EV ?0
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Though wouldn't it also show that it wasn't, necessarily, sexism which did for her, if Biden similarly falls short?williamglenn said:
I always said she was unfairly maligned and Trump was underestimated as a campaigner.Casino_Royale said:One person I bet is smiling tonight..
Hillary Clinton.0 -
3, surely, given Alabama doesn't look likely to stay Democrat.Kevin_McCandless said:Hickenlooper wins in Colorado. With the House safely in their hands, Dems are two seats away from controlling Congress.
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Trafalgar also had:
Georgia
Trump 50%
Biden 43%
North Carolina
Trump 49%
Biden 47%
Both are also likely to be bollocks.0 -
If Trump holds AZ then Biden has a really narrow route to victory. I'm not confident.0
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What do you mean? Trump too short?TheWhiteRabbit said:
What are these people looking at??stjohn said:For the election it's now
Trump 1.44-1.45
Biden 3.25-3.30 -
I said I would wee myself laughing if Biden piles up votes in seats he loses, takes the popular vote by 6m+ and loses the electoral college. And I will...CorrectHorseBattery said:
Haha okay fair point.RochdalePioneers said:
So? He may well win some states by 350 votesCorrectHorseBattery said:
People here were saying 350+ for Biden just earlier today...gealbhan said:
Define landslide and threshold for apology.CorrectHorseBattery said:I think those who called it a landslide should have the courage to say they got it wrong if that's not how it turns out. It's only fair.
I'm just saying, if you got it wrong you should have the courage to say you got it wrong, whenever that comes/if it comes. No harm in being wrong, people are terrified of admitting they got things wrong for some reason.1 -
It will be important, clearly, to see where even those who were closest were wildly out and not pretend perfection where none exists.Gallowgate said:Trafalgar had:
Ohio
Trump 49%
Biden 44%
That's clearly bollocks.0 -
GA is predicted by NYTimes to be Trump +3, so MoE (a stretch, admitedly). NC predicted to be Trump +1.6, spot on.Gallowgate said:Trafalgar also had:
Georgia
Trump 50%
Biden 43%
North Carolina
Trump 49%
Biden 47%
Both are also likely to be bollocks.0 -
Jones will lose in Alabama.Kevin_McCandless said:Hickenlooper wins in Colorado. With the House safely in their hands, Dems are two seats away from controlling Congress.
So you still have to look at Arizona, Maine and others.0 -
"boo-ee"Andy_JS said:
How do they pronounce it?williamglenn said:Breaking: Americans still can't pronounce buoy
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Well, R will take Alabama so that is 54. Given what is happening in NC, I would expect the Rs to keep NC. Maine is a toss up. AZ could be close given the Hispanic swingKevin_McCandless said:Hickenlooper wins in Colorado. With the House safely in their hands, Dems are two seats away from controlling Congress.
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Yes he is.Stocky said:
What do you mean? Trump too short?TheWhiteRabbit said:
What are these people looking at??stjohn said:For the election it's now
Trump 1.44-1.45
Biden 3.25-3.3
However, I have to say that whilst my head says this is still Biden's my heart has that awful sinking feeling you get ...0 -
I've just bet against DJT.
Odds seem mad.
I just don't see Biden not winning the three rusties....
Any idea when we'll have a clearer picture? I think its time for bed....0 -
Wait until he gets his THIRD term.....kle4 said:
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Americans pronounce buoy with two syllables -- boo-ee.Andy_JS said:
How do they pronounce it?williamglenn said:Breaking: Americans still can't pronounce buoy
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The Hispanic swing from the Democrats should not have been surprising. The Ds have ignored them in this campaign, fighting the last war by thinking the key was to increase 2016 Black turnout and that the Hispanic vote could be taken for granted.0
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You can see the mood change on Twitter, depressing.
Did Philip go to bed, so confident was he it was going to be a blowout for Biden0 -
It's 53-47 now, so Hickenlooper + Tuberville keeps it at 53.MrEd said:
Well, R will take Alabama so that is 54. Given what is happening in NC, I would expect the Rs to keep NC. Maine is a toss up. AZ could be close given the Hispanic swingKevin_McCandless said:Hickenlooper wins in Colorado. With the House safely in their hands, Dems are two seats away from controlling Congress.
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Me too. I have just reloaded my spread exposure after cashing out very early. But that truly is a case of head over heart. My head says the same as you.Mortimer said:I've just bet against DJT.
Odds seem mad.
I just don't see Biden not winning the three rusties....
Any idea when we'll have a clearer picture? I think its time for bed....
But I have an awful feeling deep inside.0 -
While not a serious plan, if the Dems were to try for a 'move from California to Wyoming' plan to win other states, are there rules on how long you must be resident in a state and registered before you can vote in its elections, or is instantaneous?0
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Trump 2/5 Pa with 3650
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If it goes down to the Rust Belt 3, probably Wed afternoon or even later. We might have a decent idea by mid-morning (all UK time) if Biden is on target to win them comfortably (i.e. if he's underperforming with Latinos but holding his polling leads with whites).Mortimer said:I've just bet against DJT.
Odds seem mad.
I just don't see Biden not winning the three rusties....
Any idea when we'll have a clearer picture? I think its time for bed....0 -
Also 50-50 no longer good enough for the Dems if Trump winsMrEd said:
Well, R will take Alabama so that is 54. Given what is happening in NC, I would expect the Rs to keep NC. Maine is a toss up. AZ could be close given the Hispanic swingKevin_McCandless said:Hickenlooper wins in Colorado. With the House safely in their hands, Dems are two seats away from controlling Congress.
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There's more than 50,000 votes to count, unless you think total turnout is only 500,000.Andy_JS said:0 -
Iowa should be interesting given the large swing to Biden in Ohio0
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Frankly, twitter being taken down a notch from smug confidence is no bad thing, though I very much hope its dreams are not totally defeated.CorrectHorseBattery said:You can see the mood change on Twitter, depressing.
Did Philip go to bed, so confident was he it was going to be a blowout for Biden1 -
Biden now over 4. Well over 4..0
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I'm not sure the markets are going to be overly happy today. This is going to rumble on for quite some time I suspect.0
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Where are you getting Hispanic swing from, apart from Cubans in Florida?MrEd said:
Well, R will take Alabama so that is 54. Given what is happening in NC, I would expect the Rs to keep NC. Maine is a toss up. AZ could be close given the Hispanic swingKevin_McCandless said:Hickenlooper wins in Colorado. With the House safely in their hands, Dems are two seats away from controlling Congress.
What vote is down, and Biden very much outperforming Hilary in white vote is true isn’t it?0 -
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Trump will definitely blame a loss, if it is one, on Covid now. Probably right, too.0
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I have to say that CNN is absolutely hopeless. There's no recognition of early vs on the day votes0
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Trump takes the lead in Ohio, but big cities still way below 69% reporting level.0
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I'm with you on the bed thing – I can't see us getting a clear idea on the rustbelt for hours.Mortimer said:I've just bet against DJT.
Odds seem mad.
I just don't see Biden not winning the three rusties....
Any idea when we'll have a clearer picture? I think its time for bed....
But I'm not with you on the result – I think Trump will win somehow, as I have thought all along.
We'll see I guess!0 -
Yes. I think Trump would have won more comfortably in 2016 against a generic male Democrat.kle4 said:
Though wouldn't it also show that it wasn't, necessarily, sexism which did for her, if Biden similarly falls short?williamglenn said:
I always said she was unfairly maligned and Trump was underestimated as a campaigner.Casino_Royale said:One person I bet is smiling tonight..
Hillary Clinton.0 -
NC will be pretty close to that, and OH will probably be pretty close to that. The early voting stuff just threw everyone off I think. Trump is pulling ahead now with in person votes coming in.Gallowgate said:Trafalgar also had:
Georgia
Trump 50%
Biden 43%
North Carolina
Trump 49%
Biden 47%
Both are also likely to be bollocks.0 -
Philadelphia apparently not reporting any more ballots tonight.0
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Going to bed. Everywhere too early to call. My call is that with it not being a thumping Biden win that Trump will declare victory and force the Democrats on the defensive. Yes, I know he would have declared victory anyway, but in a close race the networks can't just ignore him when he's beating the polls like this.0
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I would like at this point to say, even if Biden wins, which seems to be growing less likely with each passing moment, that HYUFD and Mr Ed, and one or two others should be congratulated on seeing something a lot of us didn't see and stuck to their guns in the face of a lot of polling evidence and some incredulity (to put it politely) here. I still dont think Trafalgar are a gold standard in polling but clearly the main pollsters missed things again.1
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It's now 0300 and so far no states have changed from 20160
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Any reason why the NC results do not appear to have moved for some time?0
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I hope Biden doesn't get the blame for this because he's a nice guy. The problem in my opinion has been the people smashing up Portland and Seattle.0
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Lazy gits, don't they think of those of us who have already screwed themselves for the meeting they have in 6 hours?The_Apocalypse said:Philadelphia apparently not reporting any more ballots tonight.
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I'm very close to cutting my losses here. Like deeply religious Christians attempting to explain the origins of the universe, the pro-Biden camp are increasingly falling back on fewer and fewer states to pin their hopes on.0
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They've slowly been adding, I think the last update was about 10 mins ago.Benpointer said:Any reason why the NC results do not appear to have moved for some time?
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It's far too early to say this.Mal557 said:I would like at this point to say, even if Biden wins, which seems to be growing less likely with each passing moment, that HYUFD and Mr Ed, and one or two others should be congratulated on seeing something a lot of us didn't see and stuck to their guns in the face of a lot of polling evidence and some incredulity (to put it politely) here. I still dont think Trafalgar are a gold standard in polling but clearly the main pollsters missed things again.
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As for understanding ‘minority voters’, people of colour are not a collective hive mind to understand.0
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I've just bought Biden at 268. Had to be worth a go.0
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NEW THREAD
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ABC are WAY WAY sharper on the early vote issue.
CNN just reporting 'impressive' leads in places which might mean absolutely nothing.0 -
Where I live you are still considered a "blow-in" even if you've been resident thirty years.kle4 said:While not a serious plan, if the Dems were to try for a 'move from California to Wyoming' plan to win other states, are there rules on how long you must be resident in a state and registered before you can vote in its elections, or is instantaneous?
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Dickheads.Andy_JS said:I hope Biden doesn't get the blame for this because he's a nice guy. The problem in my opinion has been the people smashing up Portland and Seattle.
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Of course he will. If he was a radical figure the moderates would say he was too radical, and the more progressive element will say he was not bold enough, didn't paint a big enough vision. The John Oliver types have been pretty clear they didn't think he was a great candidate or getting out the vote enough already.Andy_JS said:I hope Biden doesn't get the blame for this because he's a nice guy. The problem in my opinion has been the people smashing up Portland and Seattle.
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The question is if Trump wins, do the Democrats go much more radical next time. If Biden wins, does that mean GOP forget any ideas of going back to a more normal candidate and again look for somebody with "star power".0
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Honestly, the way their elections drag on is ridiculous. Glad I don’t live there.kle4 said:
Lazy gits, don't they think of those of us who have already screwed themselves for the meeting they have in 6 hours?The_Apocalypse said:Philadelphia apparently not reporting any more ballots tonight.
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I like the simultaneous take that Left Identity politics has failed and that Dems failed to appeal to Hispanic Voters as a monolithic block.2
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It's surely going to be a Trump again, isn't it?FrancisUrquhart said:The question is if Trump wins, do the Democrats go much more radical next time. If Biden wins, does that mean GOP forget any ideas of going back to a more normal candidate and again look for somebody with "star power".
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