Stepping back a little, it does absolutely beggar belief that Americans might be close to giving Trump a second term...
In the harsh words of Nick Palmer, maybe we pb'ers are just not that good at US politics?
It's more the US pollsters who don't seem to have been very good at US politics, again.
I kind of feel for them, it seems an extraordinarily difficult place to poll. Why can't they just have a rigid class system like us so it is easy to predict?
I'm just trying to get my head around this statement by both CNN and ABC that without Ohio, Trump cannot win?
It's not impossible but very hard as Trump would realistically then have to win 2 from MI, PA, MN, WI. The only sunbelt pick up is NV which is not enough to replace OH. And you would assume a correlation across the Midwest. I would make that 304-234 if Biden wins all 5 Midwest states + Iowa
Trump campaign officials are keeping an eye on R.N.C. data that suggests that Biden might be under-performing in urban areas in Minnesota, a state Trump hopes to flip.
On MN at 3/1. Astonishingly, people don't like rioters.
I don't get how the Dems could be increasing their House majority from the 2018 wave but Biden lose overall. Would suggest a popular vote win of over 5% nationally, right?
El Paso only gives +100k Dem, Trump will hold Texas.
You have El Paso, plus the San Antonio suburbs, plus the South West Corner of the state to come for Biden. 49.5 vs 48.0 to Trump I reckon.
Don't think the San Antonio suburbs are going to help Biden very much and El Paso just hasn't produced a big enough lead, Trump is already up on 2016 there.
The minority voting picture is far more complex than I thought.
I often wonder how condescending some of the Dem stuff comes across to them.
Is it stuff like Corbyn's 'Only Labour can unlock the potential of BME people' sort of thing?
Yes, I think so - I don't know so as I'm not on the receiving end of it.
It irritates me nonetheless though.
I do not think it is quite that, more that lumping people together as Latinos or Hispanics ignores an awful lot of differences between them. We all recognise that Cubans in Florida are a special case but even elsewhere there are vast differences between the different Central American states, both economically and politically, just as here BAME encompasses, say, Pakistani and Indian descendants who may have different class, religion, language, education and so on.
If you think about it, most demographic generalisations used in political analysis would be written off as crude racism in any other context.
Looking at some congressional races, it looks like some are actually uncontested - can that really be right, that even in heavily dominant areas the other party don't even bother putting up a candidate, like the Tories not even bothering in Bootle?
Now about that Fox exit poll that basically having every question way way against everything Trump stands for....who exactly did they ask? On people named Joe Biden?
Looking at some congressional races, it looks like some are actually uncontested - can that really be right, that even in heavily dominant areas the other party don't even bother putting up a candidate, like the Tories not even bothering in Bootle?
Uncontested seats weren't uncommon at Westminster 100 years ago.
I have to say this is starting to feel like how I felt when I was convinced Corbyn was going to cause a Hung Parliament, I have the same feeling I had when I saw it had slipped away. I hope I'm wrong.
Hope those here will be courageous if they have got it wrong
We're going to get another 8 months of sneering race chat from the Goodwins and edgelords of this world. Then like last time, Nazis will kill some people, Trump will approve, and the edgy community will go quiet again.
Comments
Don't declare a count until you've finished 100% of the votes.
'Sake.
I recommend watching The Newsroom for a good guide to how this is done...
Thank he'll just miss out on NC and OH!
Right now (and assuming Biden wins MI and WI) it looks like Biden will stretch his national vote lead meaningfully over Clinton, but still lose.
Where are you getting Fairfax and Richmond have reported so much? NYT only has 18% for Fairfax
(And I speak as a man with a tiny bet on Trump in VA)
IGNORE VA UNTIL THE EARLY VOTING IS ADDED.
If you think about it, most demographic generalisations used in political analysis would be written off as crude racism in any other context.
Biden 3.1 / 3.9
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128151441
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.170367709
The culprits know who they are.
Hope those here will be courageous if they have got it wrong
Cleveland (Cuyahoga)
Toledo (Lucas)
Coumbus (Franklin)
Cincinnati (Hamilton)
These all have turnover meaningfully below the average for the State.
https://twitter.com/JamesKelly/status/1323815108024377344?s=20