What’s with all this writing off Florida? It’s leaning Biden. Remember Trump surprises in dem territory with white male voters of working age. But can surprise adversely in GOP territory with moderate conservative demographics...
Panhandle almost the only place yet to count, it's all Trump votes.
I think Brits have the problem that because Trump is an arsehole it means they think it must be a slam dunk against him in the USA.
That's not how Americans think.
A good deal of Biden's campaign seemed to be based on that premise: Trump's an arse so vote for Biden. I did earlier suggest there is a difference between Trump as Head of Government and Trump as Head of State, and that voters might, at least pre-Covid, think Trump was doing pretty well on the economy and not starting any more wars, even while deploring the lack of decorum in the Oval Office.
538 reporting that the Democrat senate candidate is running 2% worse than Biden in NC. If so, that would probably make the Reps favourite to narrowly hold the senate
What’s with all this writing off Florida? It’s leaning Biden. Remember Trump surprises in dem territory with white male voters of working age. But can surprise adversely in GOP territory with moderate conservative demographics...
Florida is being written off because, erm, Trump is leading and almost all the votes have been counted
538 reporting that the Democrat senate candidate is running 2% worse than Biden in NC. If so, that would probably make the Reps favourite to narrowly hold the senate
Cunningham really f**ked this up for the Democrats.
Biden lead back up to 3% in Texas as Austin comes in strong.
62% reported.
In raw vote terms the lead just doesn't seem big enough with so many red counties still to come.
It won't be enough (probably) but remember that most of those counties have fewer than 1,000 voters, while El Paso (another Dem stonghold) has 250,000.
So as many of us thought, Biden is getting very close in states, like TX, GA, NC , OH, hence the national vote seeming so big, But not actually winning any of them quite likely. So looks more and more like it will come down to PA and AZ then.
I get the big urban areas in Texas being Democrat, but what about the southern part, why is that part so Dem? Hispanic vote, but more Dem inclined than in Florida?
So as many of us thought, Biden is getting very close in states, like TX, GA, NC , OH, hence the national vote seeming so big, But not actually winning any of them quite likely. So looks more and more like it will come down to PA and AZ then.
In the worst scenario, a very narrow Trump ECV win but an even bigger deficit for him in the popular vote.
I get the big urban areas in Texas being Democrat, but what about the southern part, why is that part so Dem? Hispanic vote, but more Dem inclined than in Florida?
There's no American Curtice, so this will have to do. Looks like Trump will hold the sun belt. Will he lose enough of the rust belt to see Biden in? Dunno.
I basically don't trust any of these partially declared states, not until they're 90% there.
I just don't know what's early/full voting and which counties are still o/s that are crucial - it's very easy to read it incorrectly, and I haven't prepared a sufficiently dynamic real-time model to work it out.
I basically don't trust any of these partially declared states, not until they're 90% there.
I just don't know what's early/full voting and which counties are still o/s that are crucial - it's very easy to read it incorrectly, and I haven't prepared a sufficiently dynamic real-time model to work it out.
So as many of us thought, Biden is getting very close in states, like TX, GA, NC , OH, hence the national vote seeming so big, But not actually winning any of them quite likely. So looks more and more like it will come down to PA and AZ then.
It's far too early to call that. He may win one or more of those.
I think it's clear that without coronavirus this year Biden would be cruising to a bruising.
The Dems need to eat some humble pie, even if they win. I'm not sure they will. It's more likely the base fantasizes that Sanders or Warren would have won big;y.
I can't stand Trump. But if he pulls off another POTUS win against the odds it's an amazing electoral performance. Getting and winning the votes where they count.
I basically don't trust any of these partially declared states, not until they're 90% there.
I just don't know what's early/full voting and which counties are still o/s that are crucial - it's very easy to read it incorrectly, and I haven't prepared a sufficiently dynamic real-time model to work it out.
That's the big problem – NC looks worse for Biden than OH doing a back of a fag packet assessment.
Thanks Mr Ed and Rob D my gut was always this would be very close, could still go either way but Trump certainly outperforming his polls in the South particular
I can't stand Trump. But if he pulls off another POTUS win against the odds it's an amazing electoral performance. Getting and winning the votes where they count.
In Ohio: Dems 2.14-2.18.
As Ohio goes so goes .... my bank balance!
I don't know why CNN and others aren't analysing the fuck out of Ohio.
Maybe I misunderstood... but I thought the expectation was that Trump would do well on the night, but then might be overtaken by Biden with votes counted later... so far it seems to be opposite?
I basically don't trust any of these partially declared states, not until they're 90% there.
I just don't know what's early/full voting and which counties are still o/s that are crucial - it's very easy to read it incorrectly, and I haven't prepared a sufficiently dynamic real-time model to work it out.
I know, particularly when it's not entirely clear how much is early voting, mail voting or election day voting.
I can't stand Trump. But if he pulls off another POTUS win against the odds it's an amazing electoral performance. Getting and winning the votes where they count.
In Ohio: Dems 2.14-2.18.
As Ohio goes so goes .... my bank balance!
I don't know why CNN and others aren't analysing the fuck out of Ohio.
Maybe I misunderstood... but I thought the expectation was that Trump would do well on the night, but then might be overtaken by Biden with votes counted later... so far it seems to be opposite?
That's on the assumption that it's all about the rust-belt. The places that are already reporting tally their votes ahead of time, but PA/WI/MI have rules that prevent them from doing that.
I can't stand Trump. But if he pulls off another POTUS win against the odds it's an amazing electoral performance. Getting and winning the votes where they count.
In Ohio: Dems 2.14-2.18.
As Ohio goes so goes .... my bank balance!
I don't know why CNN and others aren't analysing the fuck out of Ohio.
Right now, it's absolutely where the race is at.
Absolutely.
I'd forgotten how bad CNN can be, wittering on about Bidens 'almost there' in NC and very competitive in GA when hes on his way to losing both! And not looking at Ohio
Comments
Trump 127,209 (27.14%)
Clinton 308,260 (65.77%)
90% Reporting 2020
Trump 139,891 (25.4%)
Biden 402,495 (73%)
Doesn't help my spreadbets.
62% reported.
There a huge MoE in ECVs from the 270s to 400s+ and it depends on narrow results in several swing states.
https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1323801012210180099
And they seem to have done well in Florida this time...
No other way around according to CNN at least!
Healthy.
They, erm, don't really seem to be getting this early vote issue.
Forgot to top up my betting account and have run out of money to bet. My wallet is in the bedroom and my other half has called it a night
It's early days, with only 12% of the vote in Fairfax but Biden is only leading 52-46. Clinton won 62-31.
Is it something to do with the way they are counting votes?
Six million popular vote lead and still lose the electoral college.
I just don't know what's early/full voting and which counties are still o/s that are crucial - it's very easy to read it incorrectly, and I haven't prepared a sufficiently dynamic real-time model to work it out.
I think Biden will come within 2% in Texas, adding a whole bunch more useless votes.
The Dems need to eat some humble pie, even if they win. I'm not sure they will. It's more likely the base fantasizes that Sanders or Warren would have won big;y.
In Ohio: Dems 2.14-2.18.
As Ohio goes so goes .... my bank balance!
That doesn't change no matter how badly they did in aggregate.
Right now, it's absolutely where the race is at.
3/1 was decent odds ahead of the count, but I don’t think he’ll make it, either.
Coming close in TX, FL, OH and racking up enormous leads in NY and CA will do that to you.