I do have a suspicion that, once again, many Democrats didn't deep down, think they could lose this (not that they have, yet), even as they said the right things about not taking things for granted. Whilst many on this side of the pond will have predicted and/or wanted a Biden victory too, the greater distance from events may have made it easier to genuinely believe Trump could still pull it off.
Biden still has a good chance of winning. OH and TX are probably out of reach, but they always were long-shots. He needs WI MI NV and PA, and maybe AZ.
If the Hispanic vote is swinging as it has die then Nevada is gone for Biden.
Maybe, but he can squeak a win without it, as long as he gets PA.
Am I missing something in VA a state Biden was supposed to win easily. He's 300,000 votes down with nearly half the votes in? Where on earth is he going to find those?
Last time Trump made much of The Wall and nasty hombres. Much less of that this time.
I don't understand why the Biden campaign didn't dig up more of Trump's worst moments from 2016. Pussy-grabbing and all that
Didn't consistently attack on his taxes ("Make him pay!") or general madness ("Shut him up!") either.
Biden's campaign was so low key that some people probably felt taken for granted.
I'm going to say this now, before the results come in, just as I said after the 2016 results. Based on the polls *before* the election I think Biden's strategy is hard to criticise. He was following a plan and it looked like it was working. If he loses then that sucks, but I don't think the evidence was there before election night that Biden wasn't giving himself a great shot with his low-key 'Let Trump attract bad publicity' campaign.
Trouble was that from the second debate onwards, Trump was quite disciplined by his standards.
My point is still, however, would it have been reasonable for Biden to change tactics 2 weeks ago when he was 9% up nationally and with leads in 350-400 EC votes? I don't think so, and even if he loses I can't criticise someone for following a strategy which delivers that result prior to election night. You can only make decisions from the data you have at the time.
Am I missing something in VA a state Biden was supposed to win easily. He's 300,000 votes down with nearly half the votes in? Where on earth is he going to find those?
Am I missing something in VA a state Biden was supposed to win easily. He's 300,000 votes down with nearly half the votes in? Where on earth is he going to find those?
Interesting though, polls here got 2019 spot on, what on Earth has gone on in the USA then?
Is a bit early to say the polls got it wrong. So far the ones called all were very close poll (1-2 points) wise and counting is still ongoing. Seems people making predictions saw 2 point Biden lead in the south as locked in. If MI, WI are trump wins then things went horribly wrong for the pollsters.
That's the plus for me of a Trump win. That and the comedy value for another four years.
He can be hilarious. Frightening, but hilarious. Though my god, he had the biggest ego in the world before (potentially) winning again, what would he be like afterwards?
I think those who called it a landslide should have the courage to say they got it wrong if that's not how it turns out. It's only fair.
Define landslide and threshold for apology.
People here were saying 350+ for Biden just earlier today...
So? He may well win some states by 350 votes
Haha okay fair point.
I'm just saying, if you got it wrong you should have the courage to say you got it wrong, whenever that comes/if it comes. No harm in being wrong, people are terrified of admitting they got things wrong for some reason.
I said I would wee myself laughing if Biden piles up votes in seats he loses, takes the popular vote by 6m+ and loses the electoral college. And I will...
Hickenlooper wins in Colorado. With the House safely in their hands, Dems are two seats away from controlling Congress.
Well, R will take Alabama so that is 54. Given what is happening in NC, I would expect the Rs to keep NC. Maine is a toss up. AZ could be close given the Hispanic swing
That's the plus for me of a Trump win. That and the comedy value for another four years.
He can be hilarious. Frightening, but hilarious. Though my god, he had the biggest ego in the world before (potentially) winning again, what would he be like afterwards?
The Hispanic swing from the Democrats should not have been surprising. The Ds have ignored them in this campaign, fighting the last war by thinking the key was to increase 2016 Black turnout and that the Hispanic vote could be taken for granted.
Hickenlooper wins in Colorado. With the House safely in their hands, Dems are two seats away from controlling Congress.
Well, R will take Alabama so that is 54. Given what is happening in NC, I would expect the Rs to keep NC. Maine is a toss up. AZ could be close given the Hispanic swing
It's 53-47 now, so Hickenlooper + Tuberville keeps it at 53.
I just don't see Biden not winning the three rusties....
Any idea when we'll have a clearer picture? I think its time for bed....
Me too. I have just reloaded my spread exposure after cashing out very early. But that truly is a case of head over heart. My head says the same as you.
While not a serious plan, if the Dems were to try for a 'move from California to Wyoming' plan to win other states, are there rules on how long you must be resident in a state and registered before you can vote in its elections, or is instantaneous?
I just don't see Biden not winning the three rusties....
Any idea when we'll have a clearer picture? I think its time for bed....
If it goes down to the Rust Belt 3, probably Wed afternoon or even later. We might have a decent idea by mid-morning (all UK time) if Biden is on target to win them comfortably (i.e. if he's underperforming with Latinos but holding his polling leads with whites).
Hickenlooper wins in Colorado. With the House safely in their hands, Dems are two seats away from controlling Congress.
Well, R will take Alabama so that is 54. Given what is happening in NC, I would expect the Rs to keep NC. Maine is a toss up. AZ could be close given the Hispanic swing
Also 50-50 no longer good enough for the Dems if Trump wins
Hickenlooper wins in Colorado. With the House safely in their hands, Dems are two seats away from controlling Congress.
Well, R will take Alabama so that is 54. Given what is happening in NC, I would expect the Rs to keep NC. Maine is a toss up. AZ could be close given the Hispanic swing
Where are you getting Hispanic swing from, apart from Cubans in Florida?
What vote is down, and Biden very much outperforming Hilary in white vote is true isn’t it?
NC will be pretty close to that, and OH will probably be pretty close to that. The early voting stuff just threw everyone off I think. Trump is pulling ahead now with in person votes coming in.
Going to bed. Everywhere too early to call. My call is that with it not being a thumping Biden win that Trump will declare victory and force the Democrats on the defensive. Yes, I know he would have declared victory anyway, but in a close race the networks can't just ignore him when he's beating the polls like this.
I would like at this point to say, even if Biden wins, which seems to be growing less likely with each passing moment, that HYUFD and Mr Ed, and one or two others should be congratulated on seeing something a lot of us didn't see and stuck to their guns in the face of a lot of polling evidence and some incredulity (to put it politely) here. I still dont think Trafalgar are a gold standard in polling but clearly the main pollsters missed things again.
I'm very close to cutting my losses here. Like deeply religious Christians attempting to explain the origins of the universe, the pro-Biden camp are increasingly falling back on fewer and fewer states to pin their hopes on.
I would like at this point to say, even if Biden wins, which seems to be growing less likely with each passing moment, that HYUFD and Mr Ed, and one or two others should be congratulated on seeing something a lot of us didn't see and stuck to their guns in the face of a lot of polling evidence and some incredulity (to put it politely) here. I still dont think Trafalgar are a gold standard in polling but clearly the main pollsters missed things again.
While not a serious plan, if the Dems were to try for a 'move from California to Wyoming' plan to win other states, are there rules on how long you must be resident in a state and registered before you can vote in its elections, or is instantaneous?
Where I live you are still considered a "blow-in" even if you've been resident thirty years.
I hope Biden doesn't get the blame for this because he's a nice guy. The problem in my opinion has been the people smashing up Portland and Seattle.
Of course he will. If he was a radical figure the moderates would say he was too radical, and the more progressive element will say he was not bold enough, didn't paint a big enough vision. The John Oliver types have been pretty clear they didn't think he was a great candidate or getting out the vote enough already.
The question is if Trump wins, do the Democrats go much more radical next time. If Biden wins, does that mean GOP forget any ideas of going back to a more normal candidate and again look for somebody with "star power".
The question is if Trump wins, do the Democrats go much more radical next time. If Biden wins, does that mean GOP forget any ideas of going back to a more normal candidate and again look for somebody with "star power".
Comments
So money in the bank but misery in the heart!
My best guess is Biden ekes out a narrow win overall but it probably ends up in the courts.
That seems mad to me. Edit: shorter than Biden has even been.
Biden of course a friend of Kinnock and seems he may have had the same electoral success too
PA, MI, WI, OH, AZ
Ahem ...
Texas, they're spot on, or maybe a little low for the Dems.
Florida, they were wildly out.
Ohio is going to be very close, as absentee ballots from Franklin have not been counted yet. And the polls had that as a narrow Trump win,
They have a lot to answer for don't they.
Ohio
Trump 49%
Biden 44%
That's clearly bollocks.
Georgia
Trump 50%
Biden 43%
North Carolina
Trump 49%
Biden 47%
Both are also likely to be bollocks.
So you still have to look at Arizona, Maine and others.
However, I have to say that whilst my head says this is still Biden's my heart has that awful sinking feeling you get ...
Odds seem mad.
I just don't see Biden not winning the three rusties....
Any idea when we'll have a clearer picture? I think its time for bed....
Did Philip go to bed, so confident was he it was going to be a blowout for Biden
But I have an awful feeling deep inside.
What vote is down, and Biden very much outperforming Hilary in white vote is true isn’t it?
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1323822621369212933
But I'm not with you on the result – I think Trump will win somehow, as I have thought all along.
We'll see I guess!
Good night!
NEW THREAD
CNN just reporting 'impressive' leads in places which might mean absolutely nothing.