Looking at some congressional races, it looks like some are actually uncontested - can that really be right, that even in heavily dominant areas the other party don't even bother putting up a candidate, like the Tories not even bothering in Bootle?
Uncontested seats weren't uncommon at Westminster 100 years ago.
I think more recent than that, into the 50s maybe? Also in the US there are never truly uncontested elections, as in no poll is held, because write-in is always an option. I'm not aware of any recent write-in win in an otherwise uncontested seat, but in 2010 Lisa Murkowski retained her US Senate seat for Alaska as a write-in after she lost the Republican primary.
I think those who called it a landslide should have the courage to say they got it wrong if that's not how it turns out. It's only fair.
Define landslide and threshold for apology.
Just remember that I said I wasn't comfortable buying at 311. But I 'think' Biden may finish close to 300. Tight though and the problem with the ECV system is that you can narrowly lose several states and lose the Presidency.
I think if you made a call and it's wrong you should be a man/woman and hold your hands up. I and some others did after 2019, I'd have a lot of respect for those here doing the same.
Agreed. I think Biden is still fave at this point.
I don't!
Thank he'll just miss out on NC and OH!
Me too. But I think he'll take PA, MI and WI.
And he needs Minnesota and Nevada on top, at least
With PA, MI and WI he can do it without NV....
I don't think so. Are you assuming Biden wins Arizona?
Nope.
So far every single state has gone the same as 2016 (AFAIK) - so if that remains the same, flipping PA (20), MI (16) and WI (10) would put Biden on 278. Minus NV, he'd still be on 272. No?
Biden still has a good chance of winning. OH and TX are probably out of reach, but they always were long-shots. He needs WI MI NV and PA, and maybe AZ.
I think if you made a call and it's wrong you should be a man/woman and hold your hands up. I and some others did after 2019, I'd have a lot of respect for those here doing the same.
I'm going to be even more insufferable if Trump wins given the stick given to those of us who said Trump had a chance.
I'm starting to wonder whether Hispanic voters in California might swing to Trump as well. It won't make any difference to the result there but could affect the popular vote.
I think if you made a call and it's wrong you should be a man/woman and hold your hands up. I and some others did after 2019, I'd have a lot of respect for those here doing the same.
I'm going to be even more insufferable if Trump wins given the stick given to those of us who said Trump had a chance.
You will deserve credit for being correct, but let's be honest - you were predicting a Trump landslide win with victories in Virginia and Colorado. That's not going to happen.
No there isn't. There's a pattern of errors against Trump in a series of key State polls. If Trump retains GA, FL, NC, OH (which he is), then it's effectively a 50/50. No significant value. Trump has a floor of 241 at the moment.
If they can repeat success in other states and elections then fair play to them, though I've long thought while it is better than nothing and they caveat their estimates, polling is just too hard to figure out in some systems consistently, so even when it looks like genius it might be luck.
Last time Trump made much of The Wall and nasty hombres. Much less of that this time.
I don't understand why the Biden campaign didn't dig up more of Trump's worst moments from 2016. Pussy-grabbing and all that
Didn't consistently attack on his taxes ("Make him pay!") or general madness ("Shut him up!") either.
Biden's campaign was so low key that some people probably felt taken for granted.
I'm going to say this now, before the results come in, just as I said after the 2016 results. Based on the polls *before* the election I think Biden's strategy is hard to criticise. He was following a plan and it looked like it was working. If he loses then that sucks, but I don't think the evidence was there before election night that Biden wasn't giving himself a great shot with his low-key 'Let Trump attract bad publicity' campaign.
I think those who called it a landslide should have the courage to say they got it wrong if that's not how it turns out. It's only fair.
Define landslide and threshold for apology.
People here were saying 350+ for Biden just earlier today...
So? He may well win some states by 350 votes
Haha okay fair point.
I'm just saying, if you got it wrong you should have the courage to say you got it wrong, whenever that comes/if it comes. No harm in being wrong, people are terrified of admitting they got things wrong for some reason.
I think those who called it a landslide should have the courage to say they got it wrong if that's not how it turns out. It's only fair.
Define landslide and threshold for apology.
Just remember that I said I wasn't comfortable buying at 311. But I 'think' Biden may finish close to 300. Tight though and the problem with the ECV system is that you can narrowly lose several states and lose the Presidency.
Ohio is critical.
Maybe Americans wanted a very narrow Democrat win, to keep them on a tight leash?
I think if you made a call and it's wrong you should be a man/woman and hold your hands up. I and some others did after 2019, I'd have a lot of respect for those here doing the same.
I'm going to be even more insufferable if Trump wins given the stick given to those of us who said Trump had a chance.
You will deserve credit for being correct, but let's be honest - you were predicting a Trump landslide win with victories in Virginia and Colorado. That's not going to happen.
Actually I didn't. I said I thought Trump would keep his 2016 states and add NH and Minnesota. I said VA, CO and NM were outside bets if he did better.
I put the post up this morning and it was there for all to see.
Agreed. I think Biden is still fave at this point.
I don't!
Thank he'll just miss out on NC and OH!
Me too. But I think he'll take PA, MI and WI.
And he needs Minnesota and Nevada on top, at least
With PA, MI and WI he can do it without NV....
I don't think so. Are you assuming Biden wins Arizona?
Nope.
So far every single state has gone the same as 2016 (AFAIK) - so if that remains the same, flipping PA (20), MI (16) and WI (10) would put Biden on 278. Minus NV, he'd still be on 272. No?
Yes, you're right - as long as he also holds Minnesota and Virginia. Penn is where it's at.
I think those who called it a landslide should have the courage to say they got it wrong if that's not how it turns out. It's only fair.
Define landslide and threshold for apology.
Just remember that I said I wasn't comfortable buying at 311. But I 'think' Biden may finish close to 300. Tight though and the problem with the ECV system is that you can narrowly lose several states and lose the Presidency.
Ohio is critical.
Maybe Americans wanted a very narrow Democrat win, to keep them on a tight leash?
I'm not sure either side deserves a blow-out.
It does not really work like that. There is no American hive mind to coordinate any particular result.
Biden still has a good chance of winning. OH and TX are probably out of reach, but they always were long-shots. He needs WI MI NV and PA, and maybe AZ.
If the Hispanic vote is swinging as it has die then Nevada is gone for Biden.
Last time Trump made much of The Wall and nasty hombres. Much less of that this time.
I don't understand why the Biden campaign didn't dig up more of Trump's worst moments from 2016. Pussy-grabbing and all that
Didn't consistently attack on his taxes ("Make him pay!") or general madness ("Shut him up!") either.
Biden's campaign was so low key that some people probably felt taken for granted.
I'm going to say this now, before the results come in, just as I said after the 2016 results. Based on the polls *before* the election I think Biden's strategy is hard to criticise. He was following a plan and it looked like it was working. If he loses then that sucks, but I don't think the evidence was there before election night that Biden wasn't giving himself a great shot with his low-key 'Let Trump attract bad publicity' campaign.
Trouble was that from the second debate onwards, Trump was quite disciplined by his standards.
Maybe they are not wrong, maybe people are forgetting it was supposed to look good for Trump at first. This isn’t a sprint race.
As many of us said, the national polls may not be wrong by much, The issue is that Biden is racking up votes in states he's not winning, Texas, Georgia, NC , probably Ohio, and probably in more red states than those. The state polling was close enough for a 2/3% error to put Trump over the line in them , some like FL and NC always were real toss ups. PA had him up about 5% he might still nick it, but the way things are going , all the other states that were true 'toss ups' so within 2 or 3% Trumps winning most likely. So we will may well end up with Trump winning the EV despite losing the national vote by as much as 4% , twice what Clinton did.
Biden still has a good chance of winning. OH and TX are probably out of reach, but they always were long-shots. He needs WI MI NV and PA, and maybe AZ.
If the Hispanic vote is swinging as it has die then Nevada is gone for Biden.
I am kicking myself for listening to Ralston on Nevada
Biden still has a good chance of winning. OH and TX are probably out of reach, but they always were long-shots. He needs WI MI NV and PA, and maybe AZ.
If the Hispanic vote is swinging as it has die then Nevada is gone for Biden.
I am kicking myself for listening to Ralston on Nevada
Ralston is still fairly bullish on Twitter about NV.
Last time Trump made much of The Wall and nasty hombres. Much less of that this time.
I don't understand why the Biden campaign didn't dig up more of Trump's worst moments from 2016. Pussy-grabbing and all that
Didn't consistently attack on his taxes ("Make him pay!") or general madness ("Shut him up!") either.
Biden's campaign was so low key that some people probably felt taken for granted.
I'm going to say this now, before the results come in, just as I said after the 2016 results. Based on the polls *before* the election I think Biden's strategy is hard to criticise. He was following a plan and it looked like it was working. If he loses then that sucks, but I don't think the evidence was there before election night that Biden wasn't giving himself a great shot with his low-key 'Let Trump attract bad publicity' campaign.
Trouble was that from the second debate onwards, Trump was quite disciplined by his standards.
Yes, we speculated here that the debate changes the Dems wanted would favour Trump, largely because they made him seem presidential while exposing the vacuity of Biden.
Comments
Ohio is critical.
So far every single state has gone the same as 2016 (AFAIK) - so if that remains the same, flipping PA (20), MI (16) and WI (10) would put Biden on 278. Minus NV, he'd still be on 272. No?
Trump 49.6%
Biden 49%
My guess is that Trump will be stronger in the remaining votes, but it's close.
Biden's campaign was so low key that some people probably felt taken for granted.
Massive news!
Was that 30 secs from Chalian the biggest moment of the night?
I'm just saying, if you got it wrong you should have the courage to say you got it wrong, whenever that comes/if it comes. No harm in being wrong, people are terrified of admitting they got things wrong for some reason.
It's going to be VERY CLOSE.
PS: Someone on CNN just said "Blue Wall"
I'm not sure either side deserves a blow-out.
Not seriously, but what bet a snap poll after a Trump win, if it occurs, shows a marked increase in that?
Thats it, everything else is bonus territory.
Welp
I put the post up this morning and it was there for all to see.
But this is far too close to call. The critical battles are in Ohio then Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Wisconsin
If all else stays the same, and GOP keep MI and OH, I think they do it whatever happens in WI and PA
Trump 1.44-1.45
Biden 3.25-3.3
PA had him up about 5% he might still nick it, but the way things are going , all the other states that were true 'toss ups' so within 2 or 3% Trumps winning most likely. So we will may well end up with Trump winning the EV despite losing the national vote by as much as 4% , twice what Clinton did.
Hillary Clinton.
If Biden wins Michigan and Wisconsin is he 3.0 to win PA