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As gap on Betfair gets closer is Florida an outlier? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,631
edited November 2020 in General
As gap on Betfair gets closer is Florida an outlier? – politicalbetting.com

The ghost of Mandy Rice-Davies would like to say a few words. https://t.co/umbWnlSJJd

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • DAlexanderDAlexander Posts: 815
    First like Trump
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Hopefully.

    First so others can post.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1323797203253645317?s=20

    This is the guy who gave Biden a 97% chance...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,644
    NYTimes needs some rust belt needles.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    If I was American, I’d already be pissed of at Biden for not running away with this vs that man.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,270
    edited November 2020
    Well done to Trump voters for also getting out in big numbers it seems. It may not be a silent majority, but a quieter just by enough.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,741
    I'm terrified that they've fecked it but rationally they still have 2 more shots in PA and OH, if they take the other mid-western states.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,270
    Andy_JS said:

    Is this close enough?

    Trump 13,114,782
    Biden 13,106,017

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president

    Given how disparate the territory is, and how inconsistently areas count and declare, it is rather impressive one side or another does not by chance rack up huge leads early on, like the tranche of Sunderland declarations over here.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    SPIN now at Biden 278-284. A bit of a change from a couple of days ago!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,790
    Biden +5% on 2016 in Bexar County (88% reporting)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,349
    Kinabula must be chewing the furniture.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,577
    Arkansas projected for Trump
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    The night is young etc etc but....

    IF - and it is a big if - this turns out to be a lot closer than what many people expected, could those posters on here who were ramping up Biden winning a landslide and running spread bets based on this please reflect on how their comments may have influenced others to take bets?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,118
    Hmm...I thought the narrative was meant to be big Biden win?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,349
    I know, I still haven't gone to bed.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    not_on_fire said:

    https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1323797203253645317?s=20

    This is the guy who gave Biden a 97% chance...

    His model has Biden winning North Carolina, which he says is in line with expectations...

    https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1323797910128074753
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Kinabula must be chewing the furniture.

    He will still have his wardrobe :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,270
    Time_to_Leave said:

    If I was American, I’d already be pissed of at Biden for not running away with this vs that man.

    When Ed M failed against Cameron Labour went crazy and went for Corbyn. Can you imagine who the Dems will pick (or follow between elections as leaders) if Trump wins a second time?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,644
    NC now 63% for Trump on the needle.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,509
    I think Biden might sweep PA, MI and WI. OH could be very close. Don't see Biden picking up Texas.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,862
    I wonder how many oldie white voters Trump has vote, literally and figuratively, due to COVID?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Trump at 63% in BC according to NYT
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    MrEd said:

    Trump at 63% in BC according to NYT

    Even NC :)
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,347
    How is Zoom meeting going??
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,643
    Razedabode said:

    Hmm...I thought the narrative was meant to be big Biden win?

    Trump voters can't read.....
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    If Biden doesn't win a landslide, I am sure those who spent weeks telling off those who called a Hung Parliament last year as silly/stupid will hold their hands up and admit they got it wrong...
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    Some good signs for Biden in NC, suburbs again
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,644
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    MrEd said:

    The night is young etc etc but....

    IF - and it is a big if - this turns out to be a lot closer than what many people expected, could those posters on here who were ramping up Biden winning a landslide and running spread bets based on this please reflect on how their comments may have influenced others to take bets?

    Surely it's down to individuals to make their own informed decisions?
    Only if you've prefaced your comment "DYOR". :p
  • DAlexanderDAlexander Posts: 815
    Trump has a 66% chance in NC now according to the NY Times.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,643
    (I have gone to bed, but not yet asleep....)
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Having watched several US channels this evening, I have decided that it is all b*ll*cks.

    Enjoy your night, I am off to bed.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    MrEd said:

    The night is young etc etc but....

    IF - and it is a big if - this turns out to be a lot closer than what many people expected, could those posters on here who were ramping up Biden winning a landslide and running spread bets based on this please reflect on how their comments may have influenced others to take bets?

    Surely it's down to individuals to make their own informed decisions?
    It is but a number of people on here were posting with such confidence that it had to be a Biden landslide. Not great if a number of lurkers were persuaded to take bets off the back of that
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,790
    MrEd said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    MrEd said:

    The night is young etc etc but....

    IF - and it is a big if - this turns out to be a lot closer than what many people expected, could those posters on here who were ramping up Biden winning a landslide and running spread bets based on this please reflect on how their comments may have influenced others to take bets?

    Surely it's down to individuals to make their own informed decisions?
    It is but a number of people on here were posting with such confidence that it had to be a Biden landslide. Not great if a number of lurkers were persuaded to take bets off the back of that
    No, most people were using the available evidence to assert that Biden was the favourite. Which he was.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,096
    MrEd said:

    Trump at 63% in BC according to NYT

    He's on the ticket in Canada?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,577
    Ohio 42% in Biden 55% Trump 43%
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,270
    edited November 2020
    MrEd said:

    The night is young etc etc but....

    IF - and it is a big if - this turns out to be a lot closer than what many people expected, could those posters on here who were ramping up Biden winning a landslide and running spread bets based on this please reflect on how their comments may have influenced others to take bets?

    We're all grown ups, I assume, and by and large posting sincere but amateur views. It's incumbent on anyone betting to decide how much weight they give to any such talk. Even experienced bettors don't necessarily know crap.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Biden 1.54 on Betfair now
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,048
    MaxPB said:

    I think Biden might sweep PA, MI and WI. OH could be very close. Don't see Biden picking up Texas.

    I think Texas will be closer than Florida, though. Which is a bit of a surprise.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    edited November 2020
    Betfair is shifting back to Biden, presumably on Midwest early votes looking more solid than the Florida ones did. No Miami-Dade style shocks so far.

    EDIT: Changed from 'shifting strongly' to 'shifting back'.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,283
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think Biden might sweep PA, MI and WI. OH could be very close. Don't see Biden picking up Texas.

    I think Texas will be closer than Florida, though. Which is a bit of a surprise.
    Agreed, I'm very surprised.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Artist said:

    Biden 1.54 on Betfair now

    Its all over the place!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,577
    Georgia Trump 56% Biden 42% 18% in
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Biden on 53% as it stands in Texas?

    Any swingometre style comparisons to compare with?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited November 2020
    It's a bit early to be calling for a post-election analysis :wink:

    I'm still not sure which way this is going. I 'think' comfortable Biden but right now it doesn't look overly comfortable :smiley:
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Casino_Royale said:

    I think Brits have the problem that because Trump is an arsehole it means they think it must be a slam dunk against him in the USA.

    That's not how Americans think.

    What were you predicting?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,739
    Can someone explain Ohio? Looking at the counties that have already reported a significant volume of results it looks like a big swing to the Dems. But the betting markets favour Trump heavily. Are the votes counted already weighted towards early voting, and so Trump's vote is expected to pick up from here?
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,125
    MrEd said:

    Trump at 63% in BC according to NYT

    Red wave going to British Columbia? 🙂
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    MrEd said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    MrEd said:

    The night is young etc etc but....

    IF - and it is a big if - this turns out to be a lot closer than what many people expected, could those posters on here who were ramping up Biden winning a landslide and running spread bets based on this please reflect on how their comments may have influenced others to take bets?

    Surely it's down to individuals to make their own informed decisions?
    It is but a number of people on here were posting with such confidence that it had to be a Biden landslide. Not great if a number of lurkers were persuaded to take bets off the back of that
    How would someone who followed your tip on Trump winning Virginia done?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    Flipping Texas alone, unlikely as it seems, would be enough for Biden, would it not?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,577
    Michigan Trump 58% Biden 40% 3% in
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,096
    I've deleveraged a bit from Biden on Betfair.

    Not going to clean up like I thought I might.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    It's worth specifying that if Biden wins Ohio, Trump cannot win the Presidency.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Drutt said:

    MrEd said:

    Trump at 63% in BC according to NYT

    Red wave going to British Columbia? 🙂
    Trump holds Alberta.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Casino_Royale said:

    I think Brits have the problem that because Trump is an arsehole it means they think it must be a slam dunk against him in the USA.

    That's not how Americans think.

    I think it's a generic problem with looking at foreign elections. People have enough trouble looking at things from the perspective of ordinary non-political voters in their own country, and it's even harder somewhere else.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    MarqueeMark said:

    (I have gone to bed, but not yet asleep....)

    And I have gone to sleep, but not yet to bed...
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,741
    Mysticrose said:

    It's worth specifying that if Biden wins Ohio, Trump cannot win the Presidency.

    Except if he holds Wisconsin :)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sky still calling Florida as TCTC is ridiculous.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,096
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I think Brits have the problem that because Trump is an arsehole it means they think it must be a slam dunk against him in the USA.

    That's not how Americans think.

    What were you predicting?
    A very clear Biden win. I didn't predict ECVs, but I thought they'd be north of 320.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,283
    Mysticrose said:

    It's worth specifying that if Biden wins Ohio, Trump cannot win the Presidency.

    I mean, that statement is totally false....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,577
    edited November 2020
    kle4 said:

    Time_to_Leave said:

    If I was American, I’d already be pissed of at Biden for not running away with this vs that man.

    When Ed M failed against Cameron Labour went crazy and went for Corbyn. Can you imagine who the Dems will pick (or follow between elections as leaders) if Trump wins a second time?
    Biden is doing better than any challenger against an incumbent President since Bill Clinton in 1992 and better against any President after only 1 term of his party in the White House since Reagan in 1980, it is still neck and neck not a clear Trump win even if no Biden landslide
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,644
    NC now leaning Trump on the needle (71%).
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Mortimer said:

    Mysticrose said:

    It's worth specifying that if Biden wins Ohio, Trump cannot win the Presidency.

    I mean, that statement is totally false....
    It was a quote from CNN, should have put it in " "
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    not_on_fire said:

    MrEd said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    MrEd said:

    The night is young etc etc but....

    IF - and it is a big if - this turns out to be a lot closer than what many people expected, could those posters on here who were ramping up Biden winning a landslide and running spread bets based on this please reflect on how their comments may have influenced others to take bets?

    Surely it's down to individuals to make their own informed decisions?
    It is but a number of people on here were posting with such confidence that it had to be a Biden landslide. Not great if a number of lurkers were persuaded to take bets off the back of that
    How would someone who followed your tip on Trump winning Virginia done?
    Well, Trump's ahead by 200K with 30% of the vote so who knows :)

    But there is a huge difference between a straightforward state bet and recommending people piling in on a spread bet on a huge Biden win
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,960
    Didn't every serious prediction page have Biden ahead in Florida?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,644
    97% of the NC vote at the moment is early votes.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,509
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Can someone explain Ohio? Looking at the counties that have already reported a significant volume of results it looks like a big swing to the Dems. But the betting markets favour Trump heavily. Are the votes counted already weighted towards early voting, and so Trump's vote is expected to pick up from here?

    Early voting, but I think it will be close at least going by suburban results elsewhere.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,283
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Drutt said:

    MrEd said:

    Trump at 63% in BC according to NYT

    Red wave going to British Columbia? 🙂
    Trump holds Alberta.
    Charlie Falconer hasn't resigned yet, has he?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,270
    Texas seems to be counting quickly, which is good. Seems lot a lot of the bigger areas already reported?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Mortimer said:

    Mysticrose said:

    It's worth specifying that if Biden wins Ohio, Trump cannot win the Presidency.

    I mean, that statement is totally false....
    I think their point is that there is no pathway to the Presidency without Ohio and no Republican has ever won the Presidency without winning it.

    Biden suddenly looking very good in Ohio. But I'm finding this tricky with on the day votes.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Casino_Royale said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I think Brits have the problem that because Trump is an arsehole it means they think it must be a slam dunk against him in the USA.

    That's not how Americans think.

    What were you predicting?
    A very clear Biden win. I didn't predict ECVs, but I thought they'd be north of 320.
    We will see where we end up but I am sure you will hold your hands up if you're wrong :)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    ping said:

    Artist said:

    Biden 1.54 on Betfair now

    Its all over the place!
    I hope OGH is going to post the traditional betfair panic graph when all this is over.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,644
    29% of OH vote is early vote, ~half of what is expected.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,307
    https://twitter.com/KaivanShroff/status/1323799141504471040
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Andy_JS said:

    Didn't every serious prediction page have Biden ahead in Florida?

    Yes, but most had it as a tossup or lean state.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    MaxPB said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Can someone explain Ohio? Looking at the counties that have already reported a significant volume of results it looks like a big swing to the Dems. But the betting markets favour Trump heavily. Are the votes counted already weighted towards early voting, and so Trump's vote is expected to pick up from here?

    Early voting, but I think it will be close at least going by suburban results elsewhere.
    According to CNN it's unusual insofar it's not (almost) all early vote – in NC it is.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Drutt said:

    MrEd said:

    Trump at 63% in BC according to NYT

    Red wave going to British Columbia? 🙂
    Trump holds Alberta.
    He probably would :)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,862
    Mysticrose said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mysticrose said:

    It's worth specifying that if Biden wins Ohio, Trump cannot win the Presidency.

    I mean, that statement is totally false....
    It was a quote from CNN, should have put it in " "
    CNN sounding a bit panicky.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,283
    RobD said:

    29% of OH vote is early vote, ~half of what is expected.

    To be clear, does that mean in person vote today is FAR higher than was expected?

    OR

    Another half of the EV is expected.....?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    RobD said:

    97% of the NC vote at the moment is early votes.


    But only 29% of the OH vote.

    Weird times.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,048
    kle4 said:

    Texas seems to be counting quickly, which is good. Seems lot a lot of the bigger areas already reported?

    No Austin, no El Paso.

    It'll be a Trump win (probably), but under 2% I'd guess.

    Which is an astonishing achievement for the Dems.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    From NYT:

    "So far Biden is outperforming Clinton’s numbers in Houston and Dallas, but if he is to win the state he probably needs to exceed 2016 by more than he is doing right now."
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,790
    I don't think Biden will win Texas on these numbers. They aren't enough.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,627
    Casino_Royale said:

    I've deleveraged a bit from Biden on Betfair.

    Not going to clean up like I thought I might.

    I have done a partial reverse ferret too.

  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,347
    BOTH Arizona and Penn are fucking VITAL for Biden
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Drutt said:

    MrEd said:

    Trump at 63% in BC according to NYT

    Red wave going to British Columbia? 🙂
    Yes, the social democrat NDP won there the other weekend!
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    RobD said:

    29% of OH vote is early vote, ~half of what is expected.

    Which means that Biden's big lead is not really a big lead?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,577
    edited November 2020
    Gallowgate said:

    I don't think Biden will win Texas on these numbers. They aren't enough.

    No but it should ensure Biden wins the national popular vote getting so close in Texas even if Trump still narrowly wins its EC votes
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,048
    MrEd said:

    From NYT:

    "So far Biden is outperforming Clinton’s numbers in Houston and Dallas, but if he is to win the state he probably needs to exceed 2016 by more than he is doing right now."

    Well, he still has Austin and El Paso to go, both of which are big Democrat strongholds.

    But it probably won't be enough. I'd reckon Biden will end up on 48% against 49.5% for Trump.
  • GreenHeronGreenHeron Posts: 148
    My thoughts on here yesterday were that Trump's chances had been dismissed far too readily, that value on the R side had been ignored in favour of pushing a Biden landslide - but that Biden was favourite and had around a 2 in 3 chance of victory.

    Nothing that has happened so far tonight has swayed me from that conclusion. The white suburban vote looks to me likely to carry Biden over the line, though of course the demographics of the rust belt are very different to those of the southern East Coast.

    From a betting perspective this is good news for me, I am green unless there is a landslide either way.

    I am hoping that if Florida is confirmed as a R hold, Biden's odds will slide further towards evens. I have already topped up and would certainly do so again should that happen.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Texas seems to be counting quickly, which is good. Seems lot a lot of the bigger areas already reported?

    No Austin, no El Paso.

    It'll be a Trump win (probably), but under 2% I'd guess.

    Which is an astonishing achievement for the Dems.
    But not an astonishing achievement for a spread bet buy!
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,741
    Stocky said:

    BOTH Arizona and Penn are fucking VITAL for Biden

    Arizona only matters if he fails to take some of the mid-Western states where the "polls" gave him a 7% "lead".
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,910
    Biden needs to land one of these big fish. Ohio 2.14-2.34 Dems. Go Joe!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,347
    Foxy said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I've deleveraged a bit from Biden on Betfair.

    Not going to clean up like I thought I might.

    I have done a partial reverse ferret too.

    I'm holding firm. Just. Narrow Biden win looks most likely to me.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,509
    I still don't see Biden winning Texas.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    What’s with all this writing off Florida? It’s leaning Biden.
    Remember Trump surprises in dem territory with white male voters of working age. But can surprise adversely in GOP territory with moderate conservative demographics...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,270
    Looks like one of the ballot initiatives in FLorida is apparently to require that constitutional amendments would need to be approved at two successive general elections in order to become effective. What horsecrap is that? And wouldn't it itself need to be voted on twice to become effective, in moral terms at least?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    From NYT:

    "So far Biden is outperforming Clinton’s numbers in Houston and Dallas, but if he is to win the state he probably needs to exceed 2016 by more than he is doing right now."

    Well, he still has Austin and El Paso to go, both of which are big Democrat strongholds.

    But it probably won't be enough. I'd reckon Biden will end up on 48% against 49.5% for Trump.
    I reckon the rurals will come in strongly for Trump so I would say a little bit more like 3% for Trump but a definite narrowing.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    gealbhan said:

    What’s with all this writing off Florida? It’s leaning Biden.
    Remember Trump surprises in dem territory with white male voters of working age. But can surprise adversely in GOP territory with moderate conservative demographics...

    Panhandle almost the only place yet to count, it's all Trump votes.
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