Given how disparate the territory is, and how inconsistently areas count and declare, it is rather impressive one side or another does not by chance rack up huge leads early on, like the tranche of Sunderland declarations over here.
IF - and it is a big if - this turns out to be a lot closer than what many people expected, could those posters on here who were ramping up Biden winning a landslide and running spread bets based on this please reflect on how their comments may have influenced others to take bets?
If I was American, I’d already be pissed of at Biden for not running away with this vs that man.
When Ed M failed against Cameron Labour went crazy and went for Corbyn. Can you imagine who the Dems will pick (or follow between elections as leaders) if Trump wins a second time?
IF - and it is a big if - this turns out to be a lot closer than what many people expected, could those posters on here who were ramping up Biden winning a landslide and running spread bets based on this please reflect on how their comments may have influenced others to take bets?
Surely it's down to individuals to make their own informed decisions?
If Biden doesn't win a landslide, I am sure those who spent weeks telling off those who called a Hung Parliament last year as silly/stupid will hold their hands up and admit they got it wrong...
IF - and it is a big if - this turns out to be a lot closer than what many people expected, could those posters on here who were ramping up Biden winning a landslide and running spread bets based on this please reflect on how their comments may have influenced others to take bets?
Surely it's down to individuals to make their own informed decisions?
IF - and it is a big if - this turns out to be a lot closer than what many people expected, could those posters on here who were ramping up Biden winning a landslide and running spread bets based on this please reflect on how their comments may have influenced others to take bets?
Surely it's down to individuals to make their own informed decisions?
It is but a number of people on here were posting with such confidence that it had to be a Biden landslide. Not great if a number of lurkers were persuaded to take bets off the back of that
IF - and it is a big if - this turns out to be a lot closer than what many people expected, could those posters on here who were ramping up Biden winning a landslide and running spread bets based on this please reflect on how their comments may have influenced others to take bets?
Surely it's down to individuals to make their own informed decisions?
It is but a number of people on here were posting with such confidence that it had to be a Biden landslide. Not great if a number of lurkers were persuaded to take bets off the back of that
No, most people were using the available evidence to assert that Biden was the favourite. Which he was.
IF - and it is a big if - this turns out to be a lot closer than what many people expected, could those posters on here who were ramping up Biden winning a landslide and running spread bets based on this please reflect on how their comments may have influenced others to take bets?
We're all grown ups, I assume, and by and large posting sincere but amateur views. It's incumbent on anyone betting to decide how much weight they give to any such talk. Even experienced bettors don't necessarily know crap.
Can someone explain Ohio? Looking at the counties that have already reported a significant volume of results it looks like a big swing to the Dems. But the betting markets favour Trump heavily. Are the votes counted already weighted towards early voting, and so Trump's vote is expected to pick up from here?
IF - and it is a big if - this turns out to be a lot closer than what many people expected, could those posters on here who were ramping up Biden winning a landslide and running spread bets based on this please reflect on how their comments may have influenced others to take bets?
Surely it's down to individuals to make their own informed decisions?
It is but a number of people on here were posting with such confidence that it had to be a Biden landslide. Not great if a number of lurkers were persuaded to take bets off the back of that
How would someone who followed your tip on Trump winning Virginia done?
I think Brits have the problem that because Trump is an arsehole it means they think it must be a slam dunk against him in the USA.
That's not how Americans think.
I think it's a generic problem with looking at foreign elections. People have enough trouble looking at things from the perspective of ordinary non-political voters in their own country, and it's even harder somewhere else.
If I was American, I’d already be pissed of at Biden for not running away with this vs that man.
When Ed M failed against Cameron Labour went crazy and went for Corbyn. Can you imagine who the Dems will pick (or follow between elections as leaders) if Trump wins a second time?
Biden is doing better than any challenger against an incumbent President since Bill Clinton in 1992 and better against any President after only 1 term of his party in the White House since Reagan in 1980, it is still neck and neck not a clear Trump win even if no Biden landslide
IF - and it is a big if - this turns out to be a lot closer than what many people expected, could those posters on here who were ramping up Biden winning a landslide and running spread bets based on this please reflect on how their comments may have influenced others to take bets?
Surely it's down to individuals to make their own informed decisions?
It is but a number of people on here were posting with such confidence that it had to be a Biden landslide. Not great if a number of lurkers were persuaded to take bets off the back of that
How would someone who followed your tip on Trump winning Virginia done?
Well, Trump's ahead by 200K with 30% of the vote so who knows
But there is a huge difference between a straightforward state bet and recommending people piling in on a spread bet on a huge Biden win
Can someone explain Ohio? Looking at the counties that have already reported a significant volume of results it looks like a big swing to the Dems. But the betting markets favour Trump heavily. Are the votes counted already weighted towards early voting, and so Trump's vote is expected to pick up from here?
Early voting, but I think it will be close at least going by suburban results elsewhere.
Can someone explain Ohio? Looking at the counties that have already reported a significant volume of results it looks like a big swing to the Dems. But the betting markets favour Trump heavily. Are the votes counted already weighted towards early voting, and so Trump's vote is expected to pick up from here?
Early voting, but I think it will be close at least going by suburban results elsewhere.
According to CNN it's unusual insofar it's not (almost) all early vote – in NC it is.
"So far Biden is outperforming Clinton’s numbers in Houston and Dallas, but if he is to win the state he probably needs to exceed 2016 by more than he is doing right now."
"So far Biden is outperforming Clinton’s numbers in Houston and Dallas, but if he is to win the state he probably needs to exceed 2016 by more than he is doing right now."
Well, he still has Austin and El Paso to go, both of which are big Democrat strongholds.
But it probably won't be enough. I'd reckon Biden will end up on 48% against 49.5% for Trump.
My thoughts on here yesterday were that Trump's chances had been dismissed far too readily, that value on the R side had been ignored in favour of pushing a Biden landslide - but that Biden was favourite and had around a 2 in 3 chance of victory.
Nothing that has happened so far tonight has swayed me from that conclusion. The white suburban vote looks to me likely to carry Biden over the line, though of course the demographics of the rust belt are very different to those of the southern East Coast.
From a betting perspective this is good news for me, I am green unless there is a landslide either way.
I am hoping that if Florida is confirmed as a R hold, Biden's odds will slide further towards evens. I have already topped up and would certainly do so again should that happen.
What’s with all this writing off Florida? It’s leaning Biden. Remember Trump surprises in dem territory with white male voters of working age. But can surprise adversely in GOP territory with moderate conservative demographics...
Looks like one of the ballot initiatives in FLorida is apparently to require that constitutional amendments would need to be approved at two successive general elections in order to become effective. What horsecrap is that? And wouldn't it itself need to be voted on twice to become effective, in moral terms at least?
"So far Biden is outperforming Clinton’s numbers in Houston and Dallas, but if he is to win the state he probably needs to exceed 2016 by more than he is doing right now."
Well, he still has Austin and El Paso to go, both of which are big Democrat strongholds.
But it probably won't be enough. I'd reckon Biden will end up on 48% against 49.5% for Trump.
I reckon the rurals will come in strongly for Trump so I would say a little bit more like 3% for Trump but a definite narrowing.
What’s with all this writing off Florida? It’s leaning Biden. Remember Trump surprises in dem territory with white male voters of working age. But can surprise adversely in GOP territory with moderate conservative demographics...
Panhandle almost the only place yet to count, it's all Trump votes.
Comments
First so others can post.
This is the guy who gave Biden a 97% chance...
IF - and it is a big if - this turns out to be a lot closer than what many people expected, could those posters on here who were ramping up Biden winning a landslide and running spread bets based on this please reflect on how their comments may have influenced others to take bets?
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1323797910128074753
Enjoy your night, I am off to bed.
EDIT: Changed from 'shifting strongly' to 'shifting back'.
That's not how Americans think.
Any swingometre style comparisons to compare with?
I'm still not sure which way this is going. I 'think' comfortable Biden but right now it doesn't look overly comfortable
Not going to clean up like I thought I might.
But there is a huge difference between a straightforward state bet and recommending people piling in on a spread bet on a huge Biden win
Biden suddenly looking very good in Ohio. But I'm finding this tricky with on the day votes.
OR
Another half of the EV is expected.....?
But only 29% of the OH vote.
Weird times.
It'll be a Trump win (probably), but under 2% I'd guess.
Which is an astonishing achievement for the Dems.
"So far Biden is outperforming Clinton’s numbers in Houston and Dallas, but if he is to win the state he probably needs to exceed 2016 by more than he is doing right now."
But it probably won't be enough. I'd reckon Biden will end up on 48% against 49.5% for Trump.
Nothing that has happened so far tonight has swayed me from that conclusion. The white suburban vote looks to me likely to carry Biden over the line, though of course the demographics of the rust belt are very different to those of the southern East Coast.
From a betting perspective this is good news for me, I am green unless there is a landslide either way.
I am hoping that if Florida is confirmed as a R hold, Biden's odds will slide further towards evens. I have already topped up and would certainly do so again should that happen.
Remember Trump surprises in dem territory with white male voters of working age. But can surprise adversely in GOP territory with moderate conservative demographics...