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As gap on Betfair gets closer is Florida an outlier? – politicalbetting.com

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  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    MrEd said:

    Does anyone know what is going on in Virginia?

    It's early days, with only 12% of the vote in Fairfax but Biden is only leading 52-46. Clinton won 62-31.

    Is it something to do with the way they are counting votes?

    I bloody hope so because if Biden doesn't win Virginia I'm going to bed.
    If it is close in Fairfax, he is toast. 15% in, lead down to less than 5.

    Would be good for my 7/1 on Virginia though :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    I know there are places like it in the UK, particularly with the Labour vote, but I find it hard to conceive of some of these counties where 80+% vote for one candidate, when it is still thousands of people.
  • stjohn said:

    I can't stand Trump. But if he pulls off another POTUS win against the odds it's an amazing electoral performance. Getting and winning the votes where they count.

    In Ohio: Dems 2.14-2.18.

    As Ohio goes so goes .... my bank balance!

    I don't know why CNN and others aren't analysing the fuck out of Ohio.

    Right now, it's absolutely where the race is at.
    Absolutely.
    I think it is because they don't dare look, they are getting very twitchy.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    Rep favs in Az
  • LOL. OT I've noticed the Samaritans number on a lot of posters recently, presumably because of the mental health effects of the pandemic and lockdown.
  • stjohn said:

    I can't stand Trump. But if he pulls off another POTUS win against the odds it's an amazing electoral performance. Getting and winning the votes where they count.

    In Ohio: Dems 2.14-2.18.

    As Ohio goes so goes .... my bank balance!

    I don't know why CNN and others aren't analysing the fuck out of Ohio.

    Right now, it's absolutely where the race is at.
    Absolutely.
    It's really annoying that NYT picked 3 southern states for their needles. They should have picked one from the Midwest
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    Fecked it in the Atlantic Southern states. Pointlessly close in Texas and probably Ohio. Can only win if the Democrats win cases about Pennsylvania / Wisconsin before the current Supreme Court, LOL. Goose is cooked.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Does anyone know what is going on in Virginia?

    It's early days, with only 12% of the vote in Fairfax but Biden is only leading 52-46. Clinton won 62-31.

    Is it something to do with the way they are counting votes?

    I bloody hope so because if Biden doesn't win Virginia I'm going to bed.
    If it is close in Fairfax, he is toast. 15% in, lead down to less than 5.

    Would be good for my 7/1 on Virginia though :)
    Virginia has been called for the Dems
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Trump now 82 and 81% in GA and NC on the needles.
  • HYUFD said:

    CNN projects Biden wins New York

    Why bother posting that?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,072
    the betting markets have been considerably more Trumpy than the polls
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Should we start looking for states DT may pick up?

    NH?

    4 electoral votes could come in very handy at the end of the night
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Mal557 said:

    stjohn said:

    I can't stand Trump. But if he pulls off another POTUS win against the odds it's an amazing electoral performance. Getting and winning the votes where they count.

    In Ohio: Dems 2.14-2.18.

    As Ohio goes so goes .... my bank balance!

    I don't know why CNN and others aren't analysing the fuck out of Ohio.

    Right now, it's absolutely where the race is at.
    Absolutely.
    I'd forgotten how bad CNN can be, wittering on about Bidens 'almost there' in NC and very competitive in GA when hes on his way to losing both! And not looking at Ohio
    That's what I am finding extremely misleading.
  • rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Does anyone know what is going on in Virginia?

    It's early days, with only 12% of the vote in Fairfax but Biden is only leading 52-46. Clinton won 62-31.

    Is it something to do with the way they are counting votes?

    I bloody hope so because if Biden doesn't win Virginia I'm going to bed.
    If it is close in Fairfax, he is toast. 15% in, lead down to less than 5.

    Would be good for my 7/1 on Virginia though :)
    Virginia has been called for the Dems
    Thoughts on Ohio, Robert??
  • I may be the only PBer following the election while watching a playlist of women singing Christmas songs on Youtube. 51 days to Christmas, assuming Boris does not postpone it as part of Tier 6.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    Mortimer said:

    Should we start looking for states DT may pick up?

    NH?

    4 electoral votes could come in very handy at the end of the night

    NH, Nevada and Minnesota are the only realistic possibilities.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093
    Ignore fox/NYT Biden call on Virginia. CNN reporting it's in play. Unconfirmed until we hear from map guy.
  • Stepping back a little, it does absolutely beggar belief that Americans might be close to giving Trump a second term...
  • Mal557 said:

    stjohn said:

    I can't stand Trump. But if he pulls off another POTUS win against the odds it's an amazing electoral performance. Getting and winning the votes where they count.

    In Ohio: Dems 2.14-2.18.

    As Ohio goes so goes .... my bank balance!

    I don't know why CNN and others aren't analysing the fuck out of Ohio.

    Right now, it's absolutely where the race is at.
    Absolutely.
    I'd forgotten how bad CNN can be, wittering on about Bidens 'almost there' in NC and very competitive in GA when hes on his way to losing both! And not looking at Ohio
    That's what I am finding extremely misleading.
    I've lost patience with them now and have switched to Fox.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Can someone explain to me why NC and Georgia are definitely going red?

    The Dems are apparently still confident.
  • Stepping back a little, it does absolutely beggar belief that Americans might be close to giving Trump a second term...

    It does make one worry what he might try and do in the next few years if he feels loved.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Re Virginia, remember IN PERSON REPORTED FIRST.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited November 2020

    Stepping back a little, it does absolutely beggar belief that Americans might be close to giving Trump a second term...

    I understand, though do not share, why many of them may like him, but given it was so close in several states last time, I will be surprised if he manages to hold on to everyone he needs in every state he needs. But it's looking like a nail biter.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    RobD said:

    Trump now 82 and 81% in GA and NC on the needles.

    He's winning both of those, NC will be very close but stay red. If nothing else at least my projections still right,,,,until Trump holds AZ or wins PA ofc
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Drutt said:

    Ignore fox/NYT Biden call on Virginia. CNN reporting it's in play. Unconfirmed until we hear from map guy.

    Andy_JS said:

    Mortimer said:

    Should we start looking for states DT may pick up?

    NH?

    4 electoral votes could come in very handy at the end of the night

    NH, Nevada and Minnesota are the only realistic possibilities.
    Look at Virginia
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    CNN projects Biden wins New York

    Why bother posting that?
    It is one of the biggest states, however all projections need reporting, safe state or swing
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    Ohio Dems now 2.68-2.74.

    All of Joe's "maybes" have been "not to bes" so far.
  • Stepping back a little, it does absolutely beggar belief that Americans might be close to giving Trump a second term...

    I think America is now so polarized that for vast swathes of the population being anti-liberal trumps absolutely everything.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Hmm, by my judgement I'm not seeing this close victory for Trump in NC.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    As others have said the NYT needs to set up some new needles because the three they've chosen are no longer very interesting.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Drutt said:

    Ignore fox/NYT Biden call on Virginia. CNN reporting it's in play. Unconfirmed until we hear from map guy.

    Trump still has votes to go in the south in places like Virginia Beach.

    The real shocker so far is Fairfax - less than 5% lead to Biden with 18% of the votes counted.

    Trump is over 300K votes ahead with 38% of the vote in
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited November 2020
    The split in voting method this year is REALLY annoying, as it makes telling what is going to happen once all votes are counted almost impossible.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    stjohn said:

    Ohio Dems now 2.68-2.74.

    All of Joe's "maybes" have been "not to bes" so far.

    Which ones were those?
  • Stepping back a little, it does absolutely beggar belief that Americans might be close to giving Trump a second term...

    In the harsh words of Nick Palmer, maybe we pb'ers are just not that good at US politics?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    ABC reckon Dems look good in Ohio
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 595
    Even if Biden doesn't quite get Ohio based on his strong performance there it's hard to see him lose Wisconsin/Michigan/Pennsylvania.
  • If it is super tight, rather than a Biden landslide, how could that effect the Senate / House?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    Andy_JS said:

    As others have said the NYT needs to set up some new needles because the three they've chosen are no longer very interesting.

    Yep. If Trump has NC, FL, GA (which he does) then it's down to PA, MI, AZ, NV. Needles for them were surely prepared.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Does anyone know what is going on in Virginia?

    It's early days, with only 12% of the vote in Fairfax but Biden is only leading 52-46. Clinton won 62-31.

    Is it something to do with the way they are counting votes?

    I bloody hope so because if Biden doesn't win Virginia I'm going to bed.
    If it is close in Fairfax, he is toast. 15% in, lead down to less than 5.

    Would be good for my 7/1 on Virginia though :)
    Virginia has been called for the Dems
    I would ignore that. 38% of the vote in. Trump with over a 300K lead and Fairfax looking way down on 2016
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286

    ABC reckon Dems look good in Ohio

    Very strange in comparison to the other states we've seen so far.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Surely FL can be called?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Trump team think they may have lost Ohio
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    stjohn said:

    Ohio Dems now 2.68-2.74.

    All of Joe's "maybes" have been "not to bes" so far.

    This is feeling very much like 2016 now.

    Another brick in the (red rustbelt) wall....?
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    MrEd said:

    So we still on for a Biden landslide? *innocent face*

    Don't worry, Biden is about to sweep through the Rust Belt and err.......
    And err President Joe smiles demurely at you at head of his cabinet
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    FYI from NYT:

    Trump campaign officials are keeping an eye on R.N.C. data that suggests that Biden might be under-performing in urban areas in Minnesota, a state Trump hopes to flip.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited November 2020
    Time to play 'favourite county name thus far'? Throckmorton is a good one. Not so keen on the counties with two names in them like Jim Hogg and Jim Wells. Feels weird not to use someone's surname only.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 793

    ABC reckon Dems look good in Ohio

    Yeah, good for another close second.
  • The minority voting picture is far more complex than I thought.

    I often wonder how condescending some of the Dem stuff comes across to them.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    Can someone explain to me why NC and Georgia are definitely going red?

    The Dems are apparently still confident.

    I think it all depends on how accurate the "estimated votes reported" is.

    Charlotte & Rayleigh & Greensboro are all massive Dem strongholds and make up a big chunk of the population of the state.

    NYT says they are all 75-85% reported. If they are actually 70% reported, then Biden has a good shot in NC. But if not...

    I think @Casino_Royale has this right.

    Biden is likely to end up with the highest vote total ever for a US Presidential nominee, and to extend his lead over Trump meaningfully, but may lose the race by a small margin.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited November 2020

    Stepping back a little, it does absolutely beggar belief that Americans might be close to giving Trump a second term...

    In the harsh words of Nick Palmer, maybe we pb'ers are just not that good at US politics?
    It's more the US pollsters who don't seem to have been very good at US politics, again.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    I'm just trying to get my head around this statement by both CNN and ABC that without Ohio, Trump cannot win?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    MrEd said:

    FYI from NYT:

    Trump campaign officials are keeping an eye on R.N.C. data that suggests that Biden might be under-performing in urban areas in Minnesota, a state Trump hopes to flip.

    Nothing to do with all those riots, no sireee.....
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618

    Trump team think they may have lost Ohio

    Source?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Biden projected to win Connecticut
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Trump team think they may have lost Ohio

    Source?
    ABC
  • guybrushguybrush Posts: 234
    Feeling like bedtime for me. Just cashed out my position for a small loss, which I can live with. Sounds we shouldn't expect any certainty tonight.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,072
    kle4 said:

    Time to play 'favourite county name thus far'? Throckmorton is a good one. Not so keen on the counties with two names in them like Jim Hogg and Jim Wells. Feels weird not to use someone's surname only.

    i like Switzerland
  • dodrade said:

    Even if Biden doesn't quite get Ohio based on his strong performance there it's hard to see him lose Wisconsin/Michigan/Pennsylvania.

    Is it?
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    I've just cashed out my £10 spread bet on Biden at 285 ECVs at -£10 loss. So I'm out of this election with an insignificant loss. Now just hoping for my preferred candidate to win. Biden for me. I think it's a toss up.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    Trump Biden crossover coming...
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Biden not having a good night, but green shoots of better performances in white suburb and rural areas. If so the could overperform in the Midwest and win the same way you'd have guessed 8 months ago before all the campaign excitement. Or it could just be a meltdown and he loses everywhere.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    I'm just trying to get my head around this statement by both CNN and ABC that without Ohio, Trump cannot win?

    It is patently wrong. But I suspect what they mean is, if Biden wins OH, he'll probably win PA or WI & MI

    However, it also needs him to not lose NH and MN.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    The minority voting picture is far more complex than I thought.

    I often wonder how condescending some of the Dem stuff comes across to them.

    Is it stuff like Corbyn's 'Only Labour can unlock the potential of BME people' sort of thing?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Does anyone know what is going on in Virginia?

    It's early days, with only 12% of the vote in Fairfax but Biden is only leading 52-46. Clinton won 62-31.

    Is it something to do with the way they are counting votes?

    I bloody hope so because if Biden doesn't win Virginia I'm going to bed.
    If it is close in Fairfax, he is toast. 15% in, lead down to less than 5.

    Would be good for my 7/1 on Virginia though :)
    Virginia has been called for the Dems
    I would ignore that. 38% of the vote in. Trump with over a 300K lead and Fairfax looking way down on 2016
    In person is counted first, so you're making the same error people made with early Florida votes, but in reverse.
  • So many things yank my chain about American democracy.

    British elections are nice, clean and quick.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited November 2020
    deleted
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    Nice, though very much in line with expectations
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340

    Trump team think they may have lost Ohio

    Source?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Mortimer said:

    I'm just trying to get my head around this statement by both CNN and ABC that without Ohio, Trump cannot win?

    It is patently wrong. But I suspect what they mean is, if Biden wins OH, he'll probably win PA or WI & MI

    However, it also needs him to not lose NH and MN.....
    NH looks pretty good for Biden right now.
  • kle4 said:

    The minority voting picture is far more complex than I thought.

    I often wonder how condescending some of the Dem stuff comes across to them.

    Is it stuff like Corbyn's 'Only Labour can unlock the potential of BME people' sort of thing?
    Yes, I think so - I don't know so as I'm not on the receiving end of it.

    It irritates me nonetheless though.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    I'm just trying to get my head around this statement by both CNN and ABC that without Ohio, Trump cannot win?

    It is patently wrong. But I suspect what they mean is, if Biden wins OH, he'll probably win PA or WI & MI

    However, it also needs him to not lose NH and MN.....
    NH looks pretty good for Biden right now.
    NV more of a risk, I'd have thought.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Looks like the Republicans have flipped 2 house seats in FL (26 and 27)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    dodrade said:

    Even if Biden doesn't quite get Ohio based on his strong performance there it's hard to see him lose Wisconsin/Michigan/Pennsylvania.

    Is it?
    Michigan currently Trump 59% Biden 38% with 17% in

    Wisconsin Biden 72% Trump 25% with 0% in

    Pennsylvania Biden 64% Trump 35% 16% in
  • MrEd said:

    FYI from NYT:

    Trump campaign officials are keeping an eye on R.N.C. data that suggests that Biden might be under-performing in urban areas in Minnesota, a state Trump hopes to flip.

    Knew they should have picked KLOBUCHAR
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    edited November 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    I'm just trying to get my head around this statement by both CNN and ABC that without Ohio, Trump cannot win?

    It is patently wrong. But I suspect what they mean is, if Biden wins OH, he'll probably win PA or WI & MI

    However, it also needs him to not lose NH and MN.....
    NH looks pretty good for Biden right now.
    Thank god for that!

    Edit to add: Just watched Pres. Bartlett's reelection. The moment where CJ and Leo tell him that hes going to win NH! Classic.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662

    Trump team think they may have lost Ohio

    Source?
    ABC
    I think it will be close but I'd be amazed if Ohio flipped. Even if it does Biden's not home. As for Texas I'm thinking Biden will lose by around only 3% or so. So some effort but again more evidence of why the national vote may not be far out, racking up votes and just missing out.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Does anyone know what is going on in Virginia?

    It's early days, with only 12% of the vote in Fairfax but Biden is only leading 52-46. Clinton won 62-31.

    Is it something to do with the way they are counting votes?

    I bloody hope so because if Biden doesn't win Virginia I'm going to bed.
    If it is close in Fairfax, he is toast. 15% in, lead down to less than 5.

    Would be good for my 7/1 on Virginia though :)
    Virginia has been called for the Dems
    I would ignore that. 38% of the vote in. Trump with over a 300K lead and Fairfax looking way down on 2016
    Irrelevant - they haven't counted the early votes yet.

    Colorado called for the Dems already btw
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Crossover - Trump favourite to win Presidency
  • Wasn't Hickenlooper one of the presidential picks from REDACTED alongside Amy Klobuchar, using the (obviously false) exotic name principle?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Fox calls the House for the Dems. At least +5 house seats.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    El Paso only gives +100k Dem, Trump will hold Texas.
  • 1.99 both on BF
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Fox projects Dems to hold the House
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    MikeL said:

    Crossover - Trump favourite to win Presidency

    2016 all over again. The referendum, I mean. ;)
  • guybrushguybrush Posts: 234
    Trump and Biden now at parity on Betfair
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Some of the breathless excitement over Trump doing well based on Florida really, really needs to be tempered. At least for a few hours.

    If Biden flips Ohio then he's likely to win with 300+ ECVs

    Ohio is beyond critical. It is the Presidency.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    Both candidates are 2 on Betfair Exchange.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128151441
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    HYUFD said:

    dodrade said:

    Even if Biden doesn't quite get Ohio based on his strong performance there it's hard to see him lose Wisconsin/Michigan/Pennsylvania.

    Is it?
    Michigan currently Trump 59% Biden 38% with 17% in

    Wisconsin Biden 72% Trump 25% with 0% in

    Pennsylvania Biden 64% Trump 35% 16% in
    Michigan is on the day voters first, I believe.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    kle4 said:

    stjohn said:

    Ohio Dems now 2.68-2.74.

    All of Joe's "maybes" have been "not to bes" so far.

    Which ones were those?
    Florida and Georgia so far. So OK just two. But OH, TX, NC and AZ all edging away at the moment.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    Trump/Biden crossover on Betfair.


    Can't say I fully understand why.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Biden projected to win Colorado
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    I'm just trying to get my head around this statement by both CNN and ABC that without Ohio, Trump cannot win?

    It is patently wrong. But I suspect what they mean is, if Biden wins OH, he'll probably win PA or WI & MI

    However, it also needs him to not lose NH and MN.....
    NH looks pretty good for Biden right now.
    NV more of a risk, I'd have thought.
    Yes - the Hispanic results in FL are very ominous for Biden in NV
  • Chalk up an achievement to Trump- very narrow favourite on betfair. May have reverted back by the time I finish typing
  • So is it going wrong, I am lost
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 595
    MikeL said:

    Crossover - Trump favourite to win Presidency

    Source?

  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911
    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Does anyone know what is going on in Virginia?

    It's early days, with only 12% of the vote in Fairfax but Biden is only leading 52-46. Clinton won 62-31.

    Is it something to do with the way they are counting votes?

    I bloody hope so because if Biden doesn't win Virginia I'm going to bed.
    If it is close in Fairfax, he is toast. 15% in, lead down to less than 5.

    Would be good for my 7/1 on Virginia though :)
    Virginia has been called for the Dems
    I would ignore that. 38% of the vote in. Trump with over a 300K lead and Fairfax looking way down on 2016
    Isn't just that we are seeing the election day votes first but 70% of Virginia voted early?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Endillion said:

    Trump/Biden crossover on Betfair.


    Can't say I fully understand why.

    Agreed. I think Biden is still fave at this point.
This discussion has been closed.