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  • MrEd
    MrEd Posts: 5,578
    Philip_Thompson said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Another Texas County has reached 98% counted.

    Williamson voted by ten points for Trump in 2016. In 2020, Biden has won it by 3.

    Fingers crossed. 🤞🏻
    Before anyone gets excited re TX (and you can take a screenshot of this) - some of the highest increases in turnout have come from the deep red rural counties in TX.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Finally, some NC votes, and the needle goes to Biden+0.5
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    OllyT said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Pennsylvania exit poll:

    Men: 54-44 Trump
    Women: 56-42 Biden

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/pennsylvania

    Do we know to whether that is election day only or whether it tries to take into account the early voting?
    Not sure.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    RobD said:

    Finally, some NC votes, and the needle goes to Biden+0.5

    2.7 million votes, no less. lol
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MaxPB said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Texas watchers:

    We've basically had one complete count so far. Denton county, which was Trump by 20 points in 2016. This is a large suburban county outside Dallas.

    In 2020, it's Trump +7.

    Is that enough to swing the state, if replicated in similar areas elsewhere?
    No. It's a close but no cigar.
    Why?

    2016 Trump won by 9%
    Even if you exclude Others he won by 9.4%

    So a 6.5% swing would lead to Biden +3 would it not?
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Foxy said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Mysticrose said:

    Biden ahead in Pennsylvania, Texas, Georgia, Ohio, New Hampshire

    But really really tight and I can't compute to 2016 at the moment.

    Georgia? Thought that was looking like a Trump hold?
    Greetings Ms Apocalypse, long time no hear!
    Hi Foxy, hope you’re well. Mostly these days I lurk on PB. Hoping that Biden wins tonight, but not feeling too confident.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    NC needle swings towards Trump, into toss up territory now.
  • MrEd
    MrEd Posts: 5,578
    NYT Needle coming down for Biden in NC - 56% vs 66% before
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Texas watchers:

    We've basically had one complete count so far. Denton county, which was Trump by 20 points in 2016. This is a large suburban county outside Dallas.

    In 2020, it's Trump +7.

    Is that enough to swing the state, if replicated in similar areas elsewhere?
    No. It's a close but no cigar.
    Yes, it would mean a Biden win.

    Trump only won by nine points in 2016. If he's losing places by 3 that he won by ten, then it'll be VERY cose.
    Yes, my miscalculation.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    North Carolina's proximity to Virginia could push it into the Democratic column this time.
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    Trafalgar North Carolina

    Trump 49%
    Biden 47%
  • Anabobazina
    Anabobazina Posts: 23,795
    NC looking pretty strong for Biden, but he needs to convert and avoid any Dade-Bombs!!
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Gallowgate said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The two counties that have completed counting in Texas both show swings sufficient to give the Lone Star state to Biden.

    BUT. It's only two counties.

    Biden is only up on Clinton by a few % in Harris County.
    I was looking at the two 98% counties.

    But if you want to look at the 80-82% counties - Tarrant is a nine point improvement for Biden, Dallas is six points, and Harris is (as you say) bugger all.
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    No COVID, and Orange Man would have won, despite all the shit.

    The idea of a landslide leading to a chastened Republican party going back to its pre-Trump days has gone out of the window.
  • guybrush
    guybrush Posts: 262
    edited November 2020
    NY Times swinging 57% Biden - N Carolina
  • Mysticrose
    Mysticrose Posts: 4,688
    guybrush said:

    NY Times swinging 57% Biden

    From what?
  • Foxy
    Foxy Posts: 52,169
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Foxy said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Mysticrose said:

    Biden ahead in Pennsylvania, Texas, Georgia, Ohio, New Hampshire

    But really really tight and I can't compute to 2016 at the moment.

    Georgia? Thought that was looking like a Trump hold?
    Greetings Ms Apocalypse, long time no hear!
    Hi Foxy, hope you’re well. Mostly these days I lurk on PB. Hoping that Biden wins tonight, but not feeling too confident.
    Yes, not looking good for Grandpa Joe, but early days
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    guybrush said:

    NY Times swinging 57% Biden - N Carolina

    Now 58% Biden
  • Anabobazina
    Anabobazina Posts: 23,795
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Finally, some NC votes, and the needle goes to Biden+0.5

    2.7 million votes, no less. lol
    Yes, that was some vote dump!
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Is WI, MI and NC a winning combo for Biden?

    Is WI, MI and A. N. Other a winning combo for Biden?
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited November 2020
    Trump projected to win Tennessee, currently he is on 58% there
  • rkrkrk
    rkrkrk Posts: 8,746
    Whilst the magic wall thing is nice... I feel like they could just aggregate the rural counties to give us a better idea of what's going on in a state.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Is this close enough?

    Trump 13,114,782
    Biden 13,106,017

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    NC now tilting Trump.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    NC now 56% Trump likelihood of winning
  • MrEd
    MrEd Posts: 5,578
    NYT now saying 56% chance of Trump winning NC
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Georgia not predicted to be close by the NYT needle at the moment.

    I assume most would say the Senate overall won't see anything dramatic now then.
  • guybrush
    guybrush Posts: 262
    Mysticrose said:

    guybrush said:

    NY Times swinging 57% Biden

    From what?
    Apologies, that's a win probability. Poor choice of words. Now going back to Trump.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited November 2020
    MrEd said:

    NYT Needle coming down for Biden in NC - 56% vs 66% before

    Oh dear, oh dear lol...
  • Anabobazina
    Anabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Thanks to Andy for posting this – works much more quickly than CNN https://results.decisiondeskhq.com
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    Biden now relying on the rust belt IMO.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Biden on 52% in Texas now with 34% in
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    GIN1138 said:

    MrEd said:

    NYT Needle coming down for Biden in NC - 56% vs 66% before

    Oh dear, oh dear lol...
    Now 44.
  • edmundintokyo
    edmundintokyo Posts: 17,735
    OllyT said:

    Quincel said:

    kle4 said:

    It's weird to hear CNN being very cautious still about Florida while the NYT time has it 95% change for Trump, 1.7-5 lead.

    CNN seems very reluctant to recognise how much of the panhandle is left compared to the rest of the state.
    I think that is correct.
    So I was skeptical about this whole idea that PA would count their mail-in ballots late and the networks would talk as if Trump was leading on the grounds that the networks didn't have cornflakes for brains, but I'm watching CNN and they really are ooh-ing and ah-ing as if they have cornflakes for brains.
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Stop counting PA now 😂
  • Stocky
    Stocky Posts: 10,337
    5\6 biden win BF Sportsbook - best odds
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Andy_JS said:

    Is this close enough?

    Trump 13,114,782
    Biden 13,106,017

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president

    Given how disparate the territory is, and how inconsistently areas count and declare, it is rather impressive one side or another does not by chance rack up huge leads early on, like the tranche of Sunderland declarations over here.
  • noisywinter
    noisywinter Posts: 249
    Huh is this going as people expected? Not how I thought things would go
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,457
    RobD said:

    NC now tilting Trump.

    The Dems were hearing "good things about NC" ten minutes ago - presumably not this!
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited November 2020
    Florida Trump 50% Biden 48% over 90% in
  • Mal557
    Mal557 Posts: 662
    So the results so far confirm the two things I already expected, Biden is doing well in the suburbs compared to Clinton 4 years ago and he's also racking up votes and good results in places it may well not matter, which would explain the national polls. I'm tempted to go to sleep and wake up when PA is called for the winner , even if its not for days!!
  • EPG
    EPG Posts: 6,739
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Is WI, MI and NC a winning combo for Biden?

    Is WI, MI and A. N. Other a winning combo for Biden?

    Yes if AN Other is not Arizona.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806

    NEW THREAD

  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    noisywinter said:

    Huh is this going as people expected? Not how I thought things would go

    Seems a bit disappointing for Biden in several states early on to me, though still with a good path to victory if he gets the Rust belt, as MaxPB says.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    MaxPB said:

    Biden now relying on the rust belt IMO.

    He's going to get tantalisingly close in Texas. We're 37% in, with no votes from San Antonio, Austin, Corpus Christi or Galveston, and Trump is four points adrift.
  • Drutt
    Drutt Posts: 1,125
    Biden hung on to Pinellas county by about 2000 votes. One machine did not transmit but that should be that.

    So we're looking at a very narrow Biden win.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/lukemcgee/status/1323796899456000003

    62% in for NC and Biden on 53.9 to 44.9% to Trump.

    Question is where the remaining 38% are..
  • Anabobazina
    Anabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Where is this new thread?
  • Anabobazina
    Anabobazina Posts: 23,795
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    NEW THREAD

    Where?
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    williamglenn said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    No COVID, and Orange Man would have won, despite all the shit.

    The idea of a landslide leading to a chastened Republican party going back to its pre-Trump days has gone out of the window.
    The poster who said upthread that this could be a 2016 in reverse might have been the most prophetic most of the night.
  • Nigelb
    Nigelb Posts: 79,347
    .
    MrEd said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Another Texas County has reached 98% counted.

    Williamson voted by ten points for Trump in 2016. In 2020, Biden has won it by 3.

    Fingers crossed. 🤞🏻
    Before anyone gets excited re TX (and you can take a screenshot of this) - some of the highest increases in turnout have come from the deep red rural counties in TX.
    Yes, I think Biden will come up short there now.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    edited November 2020
    deleted
This discussion has been closed.

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