According to CNN that Miami Dade hasn't included mail voting or today's in person vote - both of which are likely to favour Biden. I think. They made a huge GOTV today.
If that's the case then they can still win the state I would have thought.
It's 84% reported already, so not all that much to come. I think CNN has confused "mostly in person early voting" with "started with in person early voting".
As far as I can tell Biden has generally improved his margins throughout FL but been sunk by a big drop in Miami. Hopefully just a one-off impact from the Cuban vote.
According to CNN that Miami Dade hasn't included mail voting or today's in person vote - both of which are likely to favour Biden. I think. They made a huge GOTV today.
If that's the case then they can still win the state I would have thought.
Can't see that though because it states the vote is 84% in.
As far as I can tell Biden has generally improved his margins throughout FL but been sunk by a big drop in Miami. Hopefully just a one-off impact from the Cuban vote.
I think that's broadly right: he's improved his margins 1-2 points across FL, except for Miami Dade where he's down 10 points.
Yes, I'm exhausted and will go to bed soon, even though it's less than an hour from when I'd normally be in bed. My election conditioning has gone to crap.
"Democratic officials in Milwaukee are adjusting their expectations. In-person turnout in Milwaukee has not met the biggest expectations, although it looks improved from 2016"
Jesus is Trafalgar going to be right and HYUFD going to be vindicated, glad I didn't make a prediction
Depends what you by vindicated, since some will have said the predictions were poor, but others were saying the predictions might be right, but not based on actual polling.
"Democratic officials in Milwaukee are adjusting their expectations. In-person turnout in Milwaukee has not met the biggest expectations, although it looks improved from 2016"
Just following up on that:
"Republican officials in Wisconsin are also saying they think Milwaukee Election Day turnout has been soft today."
As far as I can tell Biden has generally improved his margins throughout FL but been sunk by a big drop in Miami. Hopefully just a one-off impact from the Cuban vote.
I think that's broadly right: he's improved his margins 1-2 points across FL, except for Miami Dade where he's down 10 points.
Exactly, only positive I can see out of him losing FL is he seems to be doing well in suburb counties in the states showing much so far. That might help in other states. FL will still be close but Trumps keeping it. So need to look at whats happening in GA next, though I'm expecting Trump to hold that too
Jesus is Trafalgar going to be right and HYUFD going to be vindicated, glad I didn't make a prediction
Depends what you by vindicated, since some will have said the predictions were poor, but others were saying the predictions might be right, but not based on actual polling.
If some bloke can get the results correct without actually doing any polling and multiple companies get it completely wrong with polling...then who cares if he polls or not?
I am. There's not enough votes left in the tank for Biden.
Indeed, though he's doing marginally better across the state that -10 points in Miami Dade has done for him. Am curious to see what groups he lost compared to Clinton and that Trump gained
Jesus is Trafalgar going to be right and HYUFD going to be vindicated, glad I didn't make a prediction
Depends what you by vindicated, since some will have said the predictions were poor, but others were saying the predictions might be right, but not based on actual polling.
If some bloke can get the results correct without actually doing any polling and multiple companies get it completely wrong with polling...then who cares if he polls or not?
Well we'd care for a couple of reasons - if it was a pure guess, then well done but it means nothing in terms of predictive quality for anything else, but if he has some other way of estimating it which was proven right, that that means something for whatever else he would say in future races perhaps.
I find the defensiveness about whether he polls or not to be extremely silly and very telling. He can be congratulated for being right whether it was a guess, some predictive model or based on polling, but the level of congratulations would be different, but the defensive brigade only care about being right, even if it was based on flipping a coin.
it looks like Biden may lose Florida by a VERY fine margin. However, he would have got closer than Hilary did. So that justifies some optimism overall.
It would be ironic if the Hispanic vote is what saves Trump in this election.
I remember a Daily Show piece years ago all about the diversity of what it meant to be hispanic, yet a lot of the time some of the same people, politics wise, seem to act as though it is a monolithic group.
it looks like Biden may lose Florida by a VERY fine margin. However, he would have got closer than Hilary did. So that justifies some optimism overall.
Needle expects him to lose by 1-3% more than Clinton did, Trump areas yet to count.
Jesus is Trafalgar going to be right and HYUFD going to be vindicated, glad I didn't make a prediction
Depends what you by vindicated, since some will have said the predictions were poor, but others were saying the predictions might be right, but not based on actual polling.
If some bloke can get the results correct without actually doing any polling and multiple companies get it completely wrong with polling...then who cares if he polls or not?
Well we'd care for a couple of reasons - if it was a pure guess, then well done but it means nothing in terms of predictive quality for anything else, but if he has some other way of estimating it which was proven right, that that means something for whatever else he would say in future races perhaps.
I find the defensiveness about whether he polls or not to be extremely silly and very telling. He can be congratulated for being right whether it was a guess, some predictive model or based on polling, but the level of congratulations would be different, but the defensive brigade only care about being right, even if it was based on flipping a coin.
Well I wasn't necessarily praising that Trafalgar guy who could have just got lucky with gut feeling.
My point was that polls aren't really showing themselves to be much better than some random guesses.
Can someone confirm - I am not watching any TV coverage, I am *definitely* going to bed in a minute. Is all this 'Biden doing well here compared to Hillary', not just because of the early voting Dems who have already been counted?
Comments
I 'think.'
Which is annoying as I'd far rather go to bed.
If Trump wins by 3 (NYTimes needle) - that's a 5 point polling error.
Eek.
Possibility Biden gets massive margin on votes still to come - though there aren't that many of them.
"Democratic officials in Milwaukee are adjusting their expectations. In-person turnout in Milwaukee has not met the biggest expectations, although it looks improved from 2016"
But FL is essential for Trumpy. It is not essential for Biden.
"Republican officials in Wisconsin are also saying they think Milwaukee Election Day turnout has been soft today."
And he then needs one of about half a dozen states.
It's been drifting R for a while.
Not sure if it's enough to win it though.
I find the defensiveness about whether he polls or not to be extremely silly and very telling. He can be congratulated for being right whether it was a guess, some predictive model or based on polling, but the level of congratulations would be different, but the defensive brigade only care about being right, even if it was based on flipping a coin.
Given this, my feeling is the suburbs, at least not in the rust belt, is going to Biden
Over 60% with 22% counted. Ohio was supposed to be a stretch goal for Biden.
God I hope the rusties come through this time....
almost down to evens for a moment
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/pennsylvania
Betfair almost evens on both.
Biden 1.8
Trump 2.2
My point was that polls aren't really showing themselves to be much better than some random guesses.
Is this early ballots first?
Trump's vote still looking surprisingly loyal.
FL has a bit of home state advantage for Trump, but ominous for Biden. He didnt need to win it, but it would have killed Trump if he had.