Interesting that the NYT shows Trump winning the Absentee vote battle by a wide margin at the moment in Florida (57 to 43). Maybe he ought to stop claiming it is fraudulent.
"Richard_Tyndall said: I don't understand the BBC results map.
They are showing that so far 11% of the votes in Indiana have been counted but they are already showing it as a Trump win.
Similarly with a lot of the Congressional seats in various states where they show less than 10% of the vote counted but already say who has won the district."
The exit polls must be showing an overwhelming victory for the candidate in question.
It's like calling 4 seats for Labour in Liverpool tbf.
Not looking that great for Biden's ECV total. FL 'probably Trump' limits the top end, even if NC is looking quite good. I've just sold Biden 300 up at 21 to protect half my open buy.
Not looking that great for Biden's ECV total. FL 'probably Trump' limits the top end, even if NC is looking quite good. I've just sold Biden 300 up at 21 to protect half my open buy.
I think thats sensible. If no FL for Biden, then maybe not PA or TX either...
Not looking that great for Biden's ECV total. FL 'probably Trump' limits the top end, even if NC is looking quite good. I've just sold Biden 300 up at 21 to protect half my open buy.
I think thats sensible. If no FL for Biden, then maybe not PA or TX either...
I'm glad I loaded up on Trump +229.5 at Ladbrokes at evens
NYtimes needle... I'm struggling to see how this could adjust for the early voting/increased postal voting. I think should be interpreted with caution.
I am not surprised that Americans often seem a bit hyper. Having watched CNN's flashing adverts and flashcards and what-not, it is like the early days on the web where the content was a postage stamp size surrounded by adverts.
But surely they aren't going to win? The early results all included their big preponderance of postal votes and now their leads are being eroded.
Broward County - the biggest vote bank in Florida for the Dems - is only at 16%, vs 50% plus for the state as a whole.
I don't pretend to understand it - have not been paying attention and really don't care about the outcome. However, some commenters are saying: 1. Florida is key for the Dems. 2. The lead they have built in early votes is key - if they haven't built up a big enough 'bank' of them, they'll get drubbed on election day. 3. The results of the registered parties of voters are recorded and updated constantly, so we should be able to see which way Florida is going and predict the outcome already.
Biden's lead of 110,000 votes is likely to end up being eroded by the panhandle as that comes in. Unless there's very strong in person Biden votes from Miami-Dade to come, then I think Trump can claim victory here.
Biden's lead of 110,000 votes is likely to end up being eroded by the panhandle as that comes in. Unless there's very strong in person Biden votes from Miami-Dade to come, then I think Trump can claim victory here.
Seems to be the Cuban vote from what I just heard from US news source
According to CNN that Miami Dade hasn't included mail voting or today's in person vote - both of which are likely to favour Biden. I think. They made a huge GOTV today.
That's what is going to cost Biden in Florida but the Cuban-latino vote is not a huge factor anywhere in the country out of Miami-Dade. Hopefully it is a one-off and has actually been regularly flagged up as why Florida might be Trump's bright spot tonight.
That's what is going to cost Biden in Florida but the Cuban-latino vote is not a huge factor anywhere in the country out of Miami-Dade. Hopefully it is a one-off and has actually been regularly flagged up as why Florida might be Trump's bright spot tonight.
According to CNN that Miami Dade hasn't included mail voting or today's in person vote - both of which are likely to favour Biden. I think. They made a huge GOTV today.
Florida is staying R for sure, which was in my forecast , so time to shift my gaze to GA, if Biden does badly there as well compared to the polls I will start worrying about AZ and the total result
I am very glad I have two monitors and my laptop tonight.
Well there's no need to brag, rich man.
Doesn't mean he's rich. I'm currently on a really nice home setup with three fairly big HD monitors (I do a lot of 3D CAD for work), and two of them were free. and the third one was all of £70. All powered by a recon PC which cost me £320... (and which by careful component selection when I ordered it knocks the spots off my much more expensive work desktop when I benchmarked the CAD software!).
According to CNN that Miami Dade hasn't included mail voting or today's in person vote - both of which are likely to favour Biden. I think. They made a huge GOTV today.
Florida is staying R for sure, which was in my forecast , so time to shift my gaze to GA, if Biden does badly there as well compared to the polls I will start worrying about AZ and the total result
According to CNN that Miami Dade hasn't included mail voting or today's in person vote - both of which are likely to favour Biden. I think. They made a huge GOTV today.
If that's the case then they can still win the state I would have thought.
According to CNN that Miami Dade hasn't included mail voting or today's in person vote - both of which are likely to favour Biden. I think. They made a huge GOTV today.
If that's the case then they can still win the state I would have thought.
According to CNN that Miami Dade hasn't included mail voting or today's in person vote - both of which are likely to favour Biden. I think. They made a huge GOTV today.
If that's the case then they can still win the state I would have thought.
Can't see that though because it states the vote is 84% in.
Comments
FL: Trump +3.0%
GA: Trump +1.2%
NC: Biden +2.0%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-president.htm
I've cashed out my overall Biden/Trump position.
But leaving the other bets to ride.
Or did I imagine that?
I think should be interpreted with caution.
CNN needs adblock
1. Florida is key for the Dems.
2. The lead they have built in early votes is key - if they haven't built up a big enough 'bank' of them, they'll get drubbed on election day.
3. The results of the registered parties of voters are recorded and updated constantly, so we should be able to see which way Florida is going and predict the outcome already.
https://twitter.com/jakejakeny/status/1320802361447796736
(Agenda free tv has some interesting coverage)
Expect to lose it but still some way to go.
I reckon FL goes Trump by a smidgen over 3%.
*LONG* night ahead.
Biden's lead of 110,000 votes is likely to end up being eroded by the panhandle as that comes in. Unless there's very strong in person Biden votes from Miami-Dade to come, then I think Trump can claim victory here.
And are we expecting that to effect other states or just Florida?
But ... meh ... I don't know
If Trump outperforms in NC, as he did in FL then it'll be Trump's.
That being said... Florida was the worst state for the Dems in 2018, so we shall see.
"Make ut up somewhere else"
If Trump is outperforming in FL and GA, he'll outperform (probably) in NC.
Refuse to believe it. Florida is effectively Trump's home state.
Now, FL has been trending R for a while, and they won it in midterms where they (otherwise) did badly
But Trump has won FL