it looks like Biden may lose Florida by a VERY fine margin. However, he would have got closer than Hilary did. So that justifies some optimism overall.
Hilary lost it 49-48... If Nytimes is right, Biden is going to lose it by 3%!?
It would be ironic if the Hispanic vote is what saves Trump in this election.
I remember a Daily Show piece years ago all about the diversity of what it meant to be hispanic, yet a lot of the time some of the same people, politics wise, seem to act as though it is a monolithic group.
Yes, that's kind of the point. A source of polling error could be weighting based on false generalisations.
Can someone confirm - I am not watching any TV coverage, I am *definitely* going to bed in a minute. Is all this 'Biden doing well here compared to Hillary', not just because of the early voting Dems who have already been counted?
No, he is outperforming among whites in 100% counties, but Trump is overperforming among Latinos, especially in Florida.
It would be ironic if the Hispanic vote is what saves Trump in this election.
The Florida Cuban vote is not typical of the hispanic vote elsewhere. We have know this all along and I think we need some votes in from other hispanic areas before we can draw any conclusions from Miami.
Jesus is Trafalgar going to be right and HYUFD going to be vindicated, glad I didn't make a prediction
Depends what you by vindicated, since some will have said the predictions were poor, but others were saying the predictions might be right, but not based on actual polling.
If some bloke can get the results correct without actually doing any polling and multiple companies get it completely wrong with polling...then who cares if he polls or not?
Well we'd care for a couple of reasons - if it was a pure guess, then well done but it means nothing in terms of predictive quality for anything else, but if he has some other way of estimating it which was proven right, that that means something for whatever else he would say in future races perhaps.
I find the defensiveness about whether he polls or not to be extremely silly and very telling. He can be congratulated for being right whether it was a guess, some predictive model or based on polling, but the level of congratulations would be different, but the defensive brigade only care about being right, even if it was based on flipping a coin.
Well I wasn't necessarily praising that Trafalgar guy who could have just got lucky with gut feeling.
My point was that polls aren't really showing themselves to be much better than some random guesses.
You might but plenty have. You're right polls are sometimes way off. And of course they seek to correct issues from previous elections, and may get that correction wrong. They certainly are not perfect. But there is a difference with someone guessing right, and at least trying to poll it right.
It would be ironic if the Hispanic vote is what saves Trump in this election.
I remember a Daily Show piece years ago all about the diversity of what it meant to be hispanic, yet a lot of the time some of the same people, politics wise, seem to act as though it is a monolithic group.
Many Hispanics consider themselves White. Try telling a Cuban he is the same as a Hounduran.
it looks like Biden may lose Florida by a VERY fine margin. However, he would have got closer than Hilary did. So that justifies some optimism overall.
Hilary lost it 49-48... If Nytimes is right, Biden is going to lose it by 3%!?
Apologies, I thought Hilary lost it by more than that
Can someone confirm - I am not watching any TV coverage, I am *definitely* going to bed in a minute. Is all this 'Biden doing well here compared to Hillary', not just because of the early voting Dems who have already been counted?
No, he is outperforming among whites in 100% counties, but Trump is overperforming among Latinos, especially in Florida.
I'm not asking about their colour - what I am saying is that it's been said many times that the early/postal vote will be heavily weighted Democrat, and I'm asking if this is being taken into account when discussing Biden looking good compared to Hillary based on a partial count.
Can someone confirm - I am not watching any TV coverage, I am *definitely* going to bed in a minute. Is all this 'Biden doing well here compared to Hillary', not just because of the early voting Dems who have already been counted?
No, he is outperforming among whites in 100% counties, but Trump is overperforming among Latinos, especially in Florida.
I'm not asking about their colour - what I am saying is that it's been said many times that the early/postal vote will be heavily weighted Democrat, and I'm asking if this is being taken into account when discussing Biden looking good compared to Hillary based on a partial count.
No one seems to know.
It appears that votes came in in a random order rather than early/postal votes first in Florida. But every state does things differently.
Despite the FL situation, I still feel Biden is doing pretty well, the suburb votes seem to be doing well for him so far in some states and if he does well with those in the right states he will win them. What this does mean as others have said, we are on for a long night, no quick FL Biden win and early night! But wheres the fun in that
I feel like the CNN guys are a great double act, but I cannot tell whether it is intentional that Blitzer is all 'Wow, look how close it is', then map guy comes in with 'it's early voting and not many in yet'.
Despite the FL situation, I still feel Biden is doing pretty well, the suburb votes seem to be doing well for him so far in some states and if he does well with those in the right states he will win them. What this does mean as others have said, we are on for a long night, no quick FL Biden win and early night! But wheres the fun in that
Note my point about Kenton in KY. Across from Cincinnati. Trump the same vote as 2016.
GA at +5 for Trump according to the NYTimes needle... vs. +1 for Biden on 538 average. That's the second strong data point that Trump is outperforming significantly...
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It appears that votes came in in a random order rather than early/postal votes first in Florida. But every state does things differently.
Men: 54-44 Trump
Women: 56-42 Biden
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/pennsylvania
But really really tight and I can't compute to 2016 at the moment.
Would be 2016 in reverse.
98% reported Trump 203k Biden 175k
2016 was Trump 171k Clinton 111k
Anti-Trump sentiment across the pond got ahead of itself.
But I'm much happier now.
Having written that, Biden does need to convert his clear swings to actual ECVs.
We've basically had one complete count so far. Denton county, which was Trump by 20 points in 2016. This is a large suburban county outside Dallas.
In 2020, it's Trump +7.
I think it's the only three they are doing unfortunately.
Barely worth staying up any longer.
Men Trump 54% Biden 44% Women Biden 56% Trump 42%
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/pennsylvania
I wonder whether TX will be like 2018 - small Rep majority.
One caveat - the Hispanic counties don't seem to have shown much in the way of heavy voting
Williamson voted by ten points for Trump in 2016. In 2020, Biden has won it by 3.
A brief moment when it looked like Trump might do it (Florida) but Biden's getting swings elsewhere now.
CNN's John King's argument is that to win the Presidency you need to win the suburbs and on that method Biden would do it.
But it's a bit nerve-wracking!
Crazy.
BUT. It's only two counties.
That's the second strong data point that Trump is outperforming significantly...
98% reported Biden 132k Trump 122k
2016 was Trump 104k Clinton 85k
Biden clearly making progress in Texas, no idea if sufficient.
I've had some.
Trump only won by nine points in 2016. If he's losing places by 3 that he won by ten, then it'll be VERY cose.
https://results.decisiondeskhq.com