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  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960

    According to CNN that Miami Dade hasn't included mail voting or today's in person vote - both of which are likely to favour Biden. I think. They made a huge GOTV today.

    If that's the case then they can still win the state I would have thought.
    It's 84% reported already, so not all that much to come. I think CNN has confused "mostly in person early voting" with "started with in person early voting".
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    MaxPB said:

    If GA and FL are going to Trump then how does NC go to Biden? Seems like a disconnect there.

    Lots of tech jobs added in the Research Triangle attracting wealthy liberal voters to the state.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    Trump

    Trump relying on the Panhandle now in Florida...

    Trump's home in FL, mostly due to Miami Dade, is that the Latino factor? Trump has gained 10% in that one county
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    It will be good when we can compare the results to the topline exit poll numbers.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    As far as I can tell Biden has generally improved his margins throughout FL but been sunk by a big drop in Miami. Hopefully just a one-off impact from the Cuban vote.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Betfair, Biden 1.8 Trump 2.26.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    rcs1000 said:

    stjohn said:

    Biden now 5.9-6.0 Florida.

    That's a buy
    It's not a buy.

    Now, FL has been trending R for a while, and they won it in midterms where they (otherwise) did badly

    But Trump has won FL
    Possibly. Even probably. But not quite certainly yet.

    I 'think.'
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    Stocky said:

    Is anyone else getting a bad feeling about this yet?

    I remember going to bed to President Gore....waking up to President Bush......
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    MrEd said:

    According to CNN that Miami Dade hasn't included mail voting or today's in person vote - both of which are likely to favour Biden. I think. They made a huge GOTV today.

    If that's the case then they can still win the state I would have thought.
    Can't see that though because it states the vote is 84% in.
    It's a classic "possible, but unlikely"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited November 2020

    I've sobered up a bit with this :(

    That's the problem with being teetotal, as I was already sober, and now I've gone past sobriety to the other side. It's hell, I can tell you.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited November 2020
    Stocky said:

    Is anyone else getting a bad feeling about this yet?

    Had it for ages, glad I baled out a few weeks ago.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    As I type it goes 1.7 to 2.4. Still, not the right direction for Biden.
  • Stocky said:

    Is anyone else getting a bad feeling about this yet?

    I remember going to bed to President Gore....waking up to President Bush......
    I'm certainly getting the fears.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618

    I'm not convinced by NYT's Florida call at all.

    I am. There's not enough votes left in the tank for Biden.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    Bf 1.78 Biden 2.3 Trump
  • Feels like this is going to be a long night.

    Which is annoying as I'd far rather go to bed.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960

    Stocky said:

    Is anyone else getting a bad feeling about this yet?

    I remember going to bed to President Gore....waking up to President Bush......
    From what I recall of the 2000 race, you must've slept for a good few weeks.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Feels like this is going to be a long night.

    Which is annoying as I'd far rather go to bed.

    Haha indeed! Me too.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    As far as I can tell Biden has generally improved his margins throughout FL but been sunk by a big drop in Miami. Hopefully just a one-off impact from the Cuban vote.

    I think that's broadly right: he's improved his margins 1-2 points across FL, except for Miami Dade where he's down 10 points.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    I'm very worried that Trump will pull off a bunch of small margin victories again.
  • Jesus is Trafalgar going to be right and HYUFD going to be vindicated, glad I didn't make a prediction
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    Florida was like +2 to Dems averaging polls.
    If Trump wins by 3 (NYTimes needle) - that's a 5 point polling error.
    Eek.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Can swing in Miami-Dade really be this big?

    Possibility Biden gets massive margin on votes still to come - though there aren't that many of them.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    bf Electoral College market Trump 270 -299 down to 4.9
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Feels like this is going to be a long night.

    Which is annoying as I'd far rather go to bed.

    Haha indeed! Me too.
    Yes, I'm exhausted and will go to bed soon, even though it's less than an hour from when I'd normally be in bed. My election conditioning has gone to crap.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    FYI, from NYT from MN:

    "Democratic officials in Milwaukee are adjusting their expectations. In-person turnout in Milwaukee has not met the biggest expectations, although it looks improved from 2016"
  • Polling industry is finished if Trump wins
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Jesus is Trafalgar going to be right and HYUFD going to be vindicated, glad I didn't make a prediction

    Depends what you by vindicated, since some will have said the predictions were poor, but others were saying the predictions might be right, but not based on actual polling.
  • Jesus is Trafalgar going to be right and HYUFD going to be vindicated, glad I didn't make a prediction

    Mr BowTie will be set for life....
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    I've cashed out my Florida bets at -£20. Earlier cashed out Dems to win Georgia at +£18 so no harm done.
  • Stocky said:

    Is anyone else getting a bad feeling about this yet?

    '1948' keeps ringing in my ears.

    But FL is essential for Trumpy. It is not essential for Biden.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    MrEd said:

    FYI, from NYT from MN:

    "Democratic officials in Milwaukee are adjusting their expectations. In-person turnout in Milwaukee has not met the biggest expectations, although it looks improved from 2016"

    Just following up on that:

    "Republican officials in Wisconsin are also saying they think Milwaukee Election Day turnout has been soft today."
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,178
    has anyone missed that Democratic strategists a full three hours ago called Florida challenging and specifically pointed out the southern counties?
  • BIDEN hold Vermont (CNN)
  • Vermont for Biden!
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    rcs1000 said:

    As far as I can tell Biden has generally improved his margins throughout FL but been sunk by a big drop in Miami. Hopefully just a one-off impact from the Cuban vote.

    I think that's broadly right: he's improved his margins 1-2 points across FL, except for Miami Dade where he's down 10 points.
    Exactly, only positive I can see out of him losing FL is he seems to be doing well in suburb counties in the states showing much so far. That might help in other states. FL will still be close but Trumps keeping it. So need to look at whats happening in GA next, though I'm expecting Trump to hold that too
  • dixiedean said:

    RobD said:

    CNN was doing my head in. I have switched to ABC now. Much calmer...

    CNN has Map Guy though. He's great.
    Yeah. He can sure talk and press buttons and talk intelligently about what comes up.
    Really? He just does Florida and says "Rollercoaster" every tenth word ...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    It would be ironic if the Hispanic vote is what saves Trump in this election.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    How is the Zoom thingy going?? LadyG turn up?
  • North Carolina and Georgia can reverse Florida for Biden, with 31 ECVs to 29, but he does need to win them.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    If Florida goes Trump the polls were out by 3-9%, if that is the same nationally this election is a tossup.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    I think this is looking good for Biden, even though he may well lose Florida.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    Wisconsin/Michigan could well be key.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    North Carolina and Georgia can reverse Florida for Biden, with 31 ECVs to 29, but he does need to win them.

    My view is that Biden will comfortably take Wisconsin and Michigan.

    And he then needs one of about half a dozen states.

  • Any idea why the Cuban vote has swung so heavily to Trump?

    And are we expecting that to effect other states or just Florida?

    Apparently they believe that Biden is a raving communist and with a bunch of people who fled Castro........
  • kle4 said:

    Jesus is Trafalgar going to be right and HYUFD going to be vindicated, glad I didn't make a prediction

    Depends what you by vindicated, since some will have said the predictions were poor, but others were saying the predictions might be right, but not based on actual polling.
    If some bloke can get the results correct without actually doing any polling and multiple companies get it completely wrong with polling...then who cares if he polls or not?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618

    North Carolina and Georgia can reverse Florida for Biden, with 31 ECVs to 29, but he does need to win them.

    He only needs one of them in strategic terms.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Trump only 6k votes behind in Florida.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662

    I'm not convinced by NYT's Florida call at all.

    I am. There's not enough votes left in the tank for Biden.
    Indeed, though he's doing marginally better across the state that -10 points in Miami Dade has done for him. Am curious to see what groups he lost compared to Clinton and that Trump gained
  • There were warning signs in the Miami-Dade early voting, which was anomalous compared with the rest of the state.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Yokes said:

    has anyone missed that Democratic strategists a full three hours ago called Florida challenging and specifically pointed out the southern counties?

    Yep and it's why they sent Obama down there twice. They knew they had a big problem with the hispanic vote.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Trump currently ahead then in Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Georgia, Biden ahead in Ohio
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Not looking good. The odds seem to be not far off evens.
  • Ohio looking good for Biden.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,285
    Biden is okay as long as he doesn't underperform in PA, Michigan and Wisconsin.
  • Does Trump remind them of Fulgencio Batista?
  • Georgia are 70% for Trump now with 9% of the votes in.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Mal557 said:

    I'm not convinced by NYT's Florida call at all.

    I am. There's not enough votes left in the tank for Biden.
    Indeed, though he's doing marginally better across the state that -10 points in Miami Dade
    For the nth time that is not a total vote count figure ... it's stuck on 84% with mail ins still to come and also today's voters.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    Wonder if watching Florida might be fighting the last war?
    It's been drifting R for a while.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    Biden seems to be doing very well in Ohio? 18 electoral votes so just as key as some of the other states people are talking about.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Biden is doing very well in the suburbs compared to 2016
  • Biden seems to be doing better than Clinton at least
  • Ohio looking more positive for Biden, and other rustbelts. He's doing better than Clinton.

    Not sure if it's enough to win it though.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    North Carolina and Georgia can reverse Florida for Biden, with 31 ECVs to 29, but he does need to win them.

    NYT saying GA is likely Trump and if Trump has won FL and GA I don't see how he loses NC.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,178
    You want a straw in the wind. Again, I point you to the white vote.
  • rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    If GA and FL are going to Trump then how does NC go to Biden? Seems like a disconnect there.

    NC is just polls based.

    If Trump is outperforming in FL and GA, he'll outperform (probably) in NC.
    Many Cubans in NC?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited November 2020

    kle4 said:

    Jesus is Trafalgar going to be right and HYUFD going to be vindicated, glad I didn't make a prediction

    Depends what you by vindicated, since some will have said the predictions were poor, but others were saying the predictions might be right, but not based on actual polling.
    If some bloke can get the results correct without actually doing any polling and multiple companies get it completely wrong with polling...then who cares if he polls or not?
    Well we'd care for a couple of reasons - if it was a pure guess, then well done but it means nothing in terms of predictive quality for anything else, but if he has some other way of estimating it which was proven right, that that means something for whatever else he would say in future races perhaps.

    I find the defensiveness about whether he polls or not to be extremely silly and very telling. He can be congratulated for being right whether it was a guess, some predictive model or based on polling, but the level of congratulations would be different, but the defensive brigade only care about being right, even if it was based on flipping a coin.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    FYI. Kenton County in KT, which includes Covington, now running at 58-40 to Trump. Was 59-34 in 2016. 88% of the vote in.

    Given this, my feeling is the suburbs, at least not in the rust belt, is going to Biden
  • FL tied - CNN. 2000 votes in it
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    Does Trump remind them of Fulgencio Batista?
    Trump more Batshit than Batista.....
  • Ohio seems to be good for Biden? Or is it good counties/early votes in for Biden so far?

    Over 60% with 22% counted. Ohio was supposed to be a stretch goal for Biden.
  • Wall CNN guy for President
  • Trump now ahead again in Florida.
  • Trump wins South Carolina
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Ohio looking more positive for Biden, and other rustbelts. He's doing better than Clinton.

    Not sure if it's enough to win it though.

    Just posted. Look at Kenton County in KT. Suburb of Cincinnati - Trump's vote the same as 2016
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    MrEd said:

    FYI. Kenton County in KT, which includes Covington, now running at 58-40 to Trump. Was 59-34 in 2016. 88% of the vote in.

    Given this, my feeling is the suburbs, at least not in the rust belt, is going to Biden

    By KT do you mean Kentucky (KY)?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    MrEd said:

    FYI. Kenton County in KT, which includes Covington, now running at 58-40 to Trump. Was 59-34 in 2016. 88% of the vote in.

    Given this, my feeling is the suburbs, at least not in the rust belt, is going to Biden

    By KT do you mean Kentucky (KY)?
    Damn, you are right
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Andy_JS said:

    Biden is okay as long as he doesn't underperform in PA, Michigan and Wisconsin.

    This is sounding an awful lot like 'Clinton will be fine, she has the Blue Wall'.

    God I hope the rusties come through this time....
  • noisywinternoisywinter Posts: 249
    edited November 2020
    wow quite a movement to Trump on betfair...might be a longer night than expected

    almost down to evens for a moment
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    Ohio looking more positive for Biden, and other rustbelts. He's doing better than Clinton.

    Not sure if it's enough to win it though.

    Isn;t that just based on early votes though? The early votes of all the States always favour the Dems. We had this in 2016 lol!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    it looks like Biden may lose Florida by a VERY fine margin. However, he would have got closer than Hilary did. So that justifies some optimism overall.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    It would be ironic if the Hispanic vote is what saves Trump in this election.

    I remember a Daily Show piece years ago all about the diversity of what it meant to be hispanic, yet a lot of the time some of the same people, politics wise, seem to act as though it is a monolithic group.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    Trump +1.7 to +5 in FL on the NYT Needle. That's a 4-12% error in the polls. If repeated nationally that's a tossup/Trump win.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Stocky said:

    it looks like Biden may lose Florida by a VERY fine margin. However, he would have got closer than Hilary did. So that justifies some optimism overall.

    Needle expects him to lose by 1-3% more than Clinton did, Trump areas yet to count.

    Betfair almost evens on both.
  • pingping Posts: 3,724
    Betfair
    Biden 1.8
    Trump 2.2
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Jesus is Trafalgar going to be right and HYUFD going to be vindicated, glad I didn't make a prediction

    Depends what you by vindicated, since some will have said the predictions were poor, but others were saying the predictions might be right, but not based on actual polling.
    If some bloke can get the results correct without actually doing any polling and multiple companies get it completely wrong with polling...then who cares if he polls or not?
    Well we'd care for a couple of reasons - if it was a pure guess, then well done but it means nothing in terms of predictive quality for anything else, but if he has some other way of estimating it which was proven right, that that means something for whatever else he would say in future races perhaps.

    I find the defensiveness about whether he polls or not to be extremely silly and very telling. He can be congratulated for being right whether it was a guess, some predictive model or based on polling, but the level of congratulations would be different, but the defensive brigade only care about being right, even if it was based on flipping a coin.
    Well I wasn't necessarily praising that Trafalgar guy who could have just got lucky with gut feeling.

    My point was that polls aren't really showing themselves to be much better than some random guesses.
  • Wall CNN guy for President

    Need him doing the COVID updates.
  • Worst result is a very narrow win for one or the other.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Biden projected to win Delaware, DC, Maryland and Massachussetts
  • Ohio 28% in, Biden >59%

    Is this early ballots first?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    GIN1138 said:

    Ohio looking more positive for Biden, and other rustbelts. He's doing better than Clinton.

    Not sure if it's enough to win it though.

    Isn;t that just based on early votes though? The early votes of all the States always favour the Dems. We had this in 2016 lol!
    And early voting is more extreme than 2016. If you really disliked Trump in 2020, you got in early to make it count...

    Trump's vote still looking surprisingly loyal.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    Can someone confirm - I am not watching any TV coverage, I am *definitely* going to bed in a minute. Is all this 'Biden doing well here compared to Hillary', not just because of the early voting Dems who have already been counted?
  • HYUFD said:

    Biden projected to win Delaware, DC, Maryland and Massachussetts

    Bear predicted to defecate in the woods.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited November 2020
    Trump projected to win Oklahoma and Alabama
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Biden seems to be doing better than Clinton at least

    He needs to.

    FL has a bit of home state advantage for Trump, but ominous for Biden. He didnt need to win it, but it would have killed Trump if he had.
This discussion has been closed.