Undefined discussion subject.

Options
245

Comments

  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    RobD said:

    I am very glad I have two monitors and my laptop tonight.

    Well there's no need to brag, rich man.
  • Luckyguy1983
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,093
    Casino_Royale said:

    Democrats gone too long in Florida.. Now at 3.2.

    I have topped up.

    But surely they aren't going to win? The early results all included their big preponderance of postal votes and now their leads are being eroded.
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    Interesting that the NYT shows Trump winning the Absentee vote battle by a wide margin at the moment in Florida (57 to 43). Maybe he ought to stop claiming it is fraudulent.
  • stjohn
    stjohn Posts: 1,910
    I've had £20 at 4.7 Biden to win Florida.
  • TheValiant
    TheValiant Posts: 2,018
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT:

    "Richard_Tyndall said:
    I don't understand the BBC results map.

    They are showing that so far 11% of the votes in Indiana have been counted but they are already showing it as a Trump win.

    Similarly with a lot of the Congressional seats in various states where they show less than 10% of the vote counted but already say who has won the district."


    The exit polls must be showing an overwhelming victory for the candidate in question.

    It's like calling 4 seats for Labour in Liverpool tbf.
    CON gain Bootle.
  • Stocky
    Stocky Posts: 10,337
    The CNN guy with the maps is excellent
  • Mysticrose
    Mysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Democrats gone too long in Florida.. Now at 3.2.

    I have topped up.

    But surely they aren't going to win? The early results all included their big preponderance of postal votes and now their leads are being eroded.
    Uh? No.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Democrats gone too long in Florida.. Now at 3.2.

    I have topped up.

    But surely they aren't going to win? The early results all included their big preponderance of postal votes and now their leads are being eroded.
    Broward County - the biggest vote bank in Florida for the Dems - is only at 16%, vs 50% plus for the state as a whole.
  • CorrectHorseBattery
    CorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Florida is nuts lol
  • Mal557
    Mal557 Posts: 662
    That Miami Dade vote count is awful for Biden.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Not looking that great for Biden's ECV total. FL 'probably Trump' limits the top end, even if NC is looking quite good. I've just sold Biden 300 up at 21 to protect half my open buy.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Weird: Dems outperforming (markedly) 2016 in Palm Beach and Broward, but well behind in Miami Dade.
  • Stocky
    Stocky Posts: 10,337
    Biden out to 4 with BF in Florida
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rcs1000 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Democrats gone too long in Florida.. Now at 3.2.

    I have topped up.

    But surely they aren't going to win? The early results all included their big preponderance of postal votes and now their leads are being eroded.
    Broward County - the biggest vote bank in Florida for the Dems - is only at 16%, vs 50% plus for the state as a whole.
    Bro's need to get onward in counting then.
  • MrEd
    MrEd Posts: 5,578
    sarissa said:

    Sumter County 67% Trump after 88% precincts counted - that’s right on the bubble isn’t it?

    FYI, Osceloa. Fairlyh big county in FL. 83% vote in. Swing of 3.5% to Trump
  • CorrectHorseBattery
    CorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Is Trump going to win again :(
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    edited November 2020
    Trump has won Florida on the NYT Needle (93%). This is looking like a very long night.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Not looking that great for Biden's ECV total. FL 'probably Trump' limits the top end, even if NC is looking quite good. I've just sold Biden 300 up at 21 to protect half my open buy.

    I think thats sensible. If no FL for Biden, then maybe not PA or TX either...
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Polls closed in Ohio and North Carolina, no projected winner yet in either
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Needles again:

    FL: Trump +3.0%
    GA: Trump +1.2%
    NC: Biden +2.0%

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-president.htm
  • rkrkrk
    rkrkrk Posts: 8,746
    edited November 2020
    No signs so far of Biden landslide...
    I've cashed out my overall Biden/Trump position.
    But leaving the other bets to ride.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    How can Miami-Dade be so out of line with Broward and Palm Beach?
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Still no votes from NC. Maybe the projection is based on the other two states?
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,290
    rcs1000 said:

    Weird: Dems outperforming (markedly) 2016 in Palm Beach and Broward, but well behind in Miami Dade.

    Miami Dade is less likely to have any correlation with the vote elsewhere though, so that might not be bad news for Biden overall.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Andy_JS said:

    Needles again:

    FL: Trump +3.0%
    GA: Trump +1.2%
    NC: Biden +2.0%

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-president.htm

    I'm fascinated by the NC - 'no votes counted' but +2% to JB!
  • dixiedean
    dixiedean Posts: 30,317
    Did they just say Miami Dade is counting in person first?
    Or did I imagine that?
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Biden back in the lead in FL, but it looks Trump has won the state
  • DAlexander
    DAlexander Posts: 815
    Mal557 said:

    That Miami Dade vote count is awful for Biden.

    Has there been a demographic change there in the last 4 years? Otherwise it doesn't make sense.
  • MrEd
    MrEd Posts: 5,578
    Mortimer said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Not looking that great for Biden's ECV total. FL 'probably Trump' limits the top end, even if NC is looking quite good. I've just sold Biden 300 up at 21 to protect half my open buy.

    I think thats sensible. If no FL for Biden, then maybe not PA or TX either...
    I'm glad I loaded up on Trump +229.5 at Ladbrokes at evens
  • Mal557
    Mal557 Posts: 662
    Bidens actaully doing well in other parts of the state, but Miami Dade, oh boy.
  • Yokes
    Yokes Posts: 1,410
    Any Democratic gains in FL are the white vote. I said it days ago, what if we ignore Florida.
  • stjohn
    stjohn Posts: 1,910
    I've had another £20 at 4.6 Biden to win Florida
  • rkrkrk
    rkrkrk Posts: 8,746
    NYtimes needle... I'm struggling to see how this could adjust for the early voting/increased postal voting.
    I think should be interpreted with caution.
  • Foxy
    Foxy Posts: 52,169
    rcs1000 said:

    Weird: Dems outperforming (markedly) 2016 in Palm Beach and Broward, but well behind in Miami Dade.

    Is there an issue with postal votes getting to the count in Dade?
  • Beibheirli_C
    Beibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    I am not surprised that Americans often seem a bit hyper. Having watched CNN's flashing adverts and flashcards and what-not, it is like the early days on the web where the content was a postage stamp size surrounded by adverts.

    CNN needs adblock
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,726
    DAlexander said:

    Mal557 said:

    That Miami Dade vote count is awful for Biden.

    Has there been a demographic change there in the last 4 years? Otherwise it doesn't make sense.
    PHE are in charge and counting the vote using Excel?
  • Luckyguy1983
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,093
    rcs1000 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Democrats gone too long in Florida.. Now at 3.2.

    I have topped up.

    But surely they aren't going to win? The early results all included their big preponderance of postal votes and now their leads are being eroded.
    Broward County - the biggest vote bank in Florida for the Dems - is only at 16%, vs 50% plus for the state as a whole.
    I don't pretend to understand it - have not been paying attention and really don't care about the outcome. However, some commenters are saying:
    1. Florida is key for the Dems.
    2. The lead they have built in early votes is key - if they haven't built up a big enough 'bank' of them, they'll get drubbed on election day.
    3. The results of the registered parties of voters are recorded and updated constantly, so we should be able to see which way Florida is going and predict the outcome already.

    https://twitter.com/jakejakeny/status/1320802361447796736
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    rcs1000 said:

    Biden back in the lead in FL, but it looks Trump has won the state

    With what is left to report, that looks about right.
  • MrEd
    MrEd Posts: 5,578
    Trump now running ahead of his share in Broward. 83% in.
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    I am hearing that Florida not looking great for Biden

    (Agenda free tv has some interesting coverage)
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    I've got £20 for Dems to win Florida, and have otherwise closed my stake.

    Expect to lose it but still some way to go.
  • Chris
    Chris Posts: 12,059
    Mysticrose said:

    Drutt said:

    Biden down to +4 in Pinellas

    269-269 here we come.

    Florida really isn't vital for Biden. It is for Trump.
    All the states in contention are vital for Trump.
  • Beibheirli_C
    Beibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    CNN was doing my head in. I have switched to ABC now. Much calmer...
  • Mysticrose
    Mysticrose Posts: 4,688
    The CNN map with John King is absolutely brilliant by the way. Very cool.
  • RochdalePioneers
    RochdalePioneers Posts: 30,611
    RobD said:

    I am very glad I have two monitors and my laptop tonight.

    I'm just running on my 34" Ultrawide. It has transformed my productivity
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,726
    Is Mr Hanging Chad going to get another day in court in Florida?
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Beibheirli_C said:

    CNN was doing my head in. I have switched to ABC now. Much calmer...

    CNN has Map Guy though. He's great.
  • Drutt
    Drutt Posts: 1,125
    Biden down to +2% in Pinellas county with 14% left to count.

    I reckon FL goes Trump by a smidgen over 3%.

    *LONG* night ahead.
  • not_on_fire
    not_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Weird: Dems outperforming (markedly) 2016 in Palm Beach and Broward, but well behind in Miami Dade.

    Is there an issue with postal votes getting to the count in Dade?
    Something to do with Cuban Hispanics?
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Problem is Miami-Dade totals are so high there isn't much vote still to come.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,726
    Mysticrose said:

    The CNN map with John King is absolutely brilliant by the way. Very cool.

    TBH, they should just do 8hrs with him. Bin off all the partisan talking head.
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    @HYUFD is going to be delighted that if the NYTimes is right, Trafalgar were spot on in Florida.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Trump is very likely the winner in Florida.

    Biden's lead of 110,000 votes is likely to end up being eroded by the panhandle as that comes in. Unless there's very strong in person Biden votes from Miami-Dade to come, then I think Trump can claim victory here.
  • Time_to_Leave
    Time_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    If Florida does go Trump, presumably the market will overcompensate towards a Trump win?
  • Yokes
    Yokes Posts: 1,410
    I think North Carolina will go Democrat.
  • MrEd
    MrEd Posts: 5,578
    Pinellas down to Biden +1%
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    rcs1000 said:

    Trump is very likely the winner in Florida.

    Biden's lead of 110,000 votes is likely to end up being eroded by the panhandle as that comes in. Unless there's very strong in person Biden votes from Miami-Dade to come, then I think Trump can claim victory here.

    Seems to be the Cuban vote from what I just heard from US news source
  • stjohn
    stjohn Posts: 1,910
    Biden now 5.9-6.0 Florida.
  • Mysticrose
    Mysticrose Posts: 4,688
    According to CNN that Miami Dade hasn't included mail voting or today's in person vote - both of which are likely to favour Biden. I think. They made a huge GOTV today.
  • Luckyguy1983
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,093
    Drutt said:

    Biden down to +2% in Pinellas county with 14% left to count.

    I reckon FL goes Trump by a smidgen over 3%.

    *LONG* night ahead.

    If it's over 3.5%, hasn't he basically won the election?
  • MrEd
    MrEd Posts: 5,578
    Gallowgate said:

    @HYUFD is going to be delighted that if the NYTimes is right, Trafalgar were spot on in Florida.

    Us Trumpsters can claim one victory ;)
  • OllyT
    OllyT Posts: 5,050
    rcs1000 said:

    Miami Dade numbers are HORRIBLE for Biden. He's up 9 vs 29 win for Clinton.

    I think.
    I may be wrong.

    Mal557 said:

    That Miami Dade vote count is awful for Biden.

    That's what is going to cost Biden in Florida but the Cuban-latino vote is not a huge factor anywhere in the country out of Miami-Dade. Hopefully it is a one-off and has actually been regularly flagged up as why Florida might be Trump's bright spot tonight.
  • dixiedean
    dixiedean Posts: 30,317
    RobD said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    CNN was doing my head in. I have switched to ABC now. Much calmer...

    CNN has Map Guy though. He's great.
    Yeah. He can sure talk and press buttons and talk intelligently about what comes up.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Florida might be very unrepresentative this time.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Miama Dade hasn't moved in awhile for some reason
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Gallowgate said:

    @HYUFD is going to be delighted that if the NYTimes is right, Trafalgar were spot on in Florida.

    Polling enquiry 3.0?
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    The in-play stuff is shit. Betfair moves too fast for me to get my bets on with a five second delay.
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Any idea why the Cuban vote has swung so heavily to Trump?

    And are we expecting that to effect other states or just Florida?
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    I wonder why Biden has underperformed in Florida.
  • CorrectHorseBattery
    CorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Biden wins Virginia!
  • Mysticrose
    Mysticrose Posts: 4,688
    OllyT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Miami Dade numbers are HORRIBLE for Biden. He's up 9 vs 29 win for Clinton.

    I think.
    I may be wrong.

    Mal557 said:

    That Miami Dade vote count is awful for Biden.

    That's what is going to cost Biden in Florida but the Cuban-latino vote is not a huge factor anywhere in the country out of Miami-Dade. Hopefully it is a one-off and has actually been regularly flagged up as why Florida might be Trump's bright spot tonight.
    According to CNN that Miami Dade hasn't included mail voting or today's in person vote - both of which are likely to favour Biden. I think. They made a huge GOTV today.

    But ... meh ... I don't know
  • Mal557
    Mal557 Posts: 662
    Florida is staying R for sure, which was in my forecast , so time to shift my gaze to GA, if Biden does badly there as well compared to the polls I will start worrying about AZ and the total result
  • theProle
    theProle Posts: 1,411
    edited November 2020
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    I am very glad I have two monitors and my laptop tonight.

    Well there's no need to brag, rich man.
    Doesn't mean he's rich. I'm currently on a really nice home setup with three fairly big HD monitors (I do a lot of 3D CAD for work), and two of them were free. and the third one was all of £70. All powered by a recon PC which cost me £320... (and which by careful component selection when I ordered it knocks the spots off my much more expensive work desktop when I benchmarked the CAD software!).
  • Anabobazina
    Anabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Mysticrose said:

    According to CNN that Miami Dade hasn't included mail voting or today's in person vote - both of which are likely to favour Biden. I think. They made a huge GOTV today.

    Yes, it's mainly early in-person votes.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    How did the Dems land up with a candidate as terrible as Biden lol?
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Yokes said:

    I think North Carolina will go Democrat.

    We don't have any votes from there yet.

    If Trump outperforms in NC, as he did in FL then it'll be Trump's.

    That being said... Florida was the worst state for the Dems in 2018, so we shall see.
  • not_on_fire
    not_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Any idea why the Cuban vote has swung so heavily to Trump?

    And are we expecting that to effect other states or just Florida?

    All other states have negligible Cuban vote I think
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    dixiedean said:

    RobD said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    CNN was doing my head in. I have switched to ABC now. Much calmer...

    CNN has Map Guy though. He's great.
    Yeah. He can sure talk and press buttons and talk intelligently about what comes up.
    "Adjust your math"
    "Make ut up somewhere else"
  • Yokes
    Yokes Posts: 1,410
    Georgia is going to be very tight.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    If GA and FL are going to Trump then how does NC go to Biden? Seems like a disconnect there.
  • Mysticrose
    Mysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Mal557 said:

    Florida is staying R for sure, which was in my forecast , so time to shift my gaze to GA, if Biden does badly there as well compared to the polls I will start worrying about AZ and the total result

    I don't think that's 'for sure' at all yet ...
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    RobD said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    CNN was doing my head in. I have switched to ABC now. Much calmer...

    CNN has Map Guy though. He's great.
    Yeah. He can sure talk and press buttons and talk intelligently about what comes up.
    "Adjust your math"
    "Make ut up somewhere else"
    He speaks on my level. I appreciate it. :p
  • DAlexander
    DAlexander Posts: 815
    Mysticrose said:

    According to CNN that Miami Dade hasn't included mail voting or today's in person vote - both of which are likely to favour Biden. I think. They made a huge GOTV today.

    If that's the case then they can still win the state I would have thought.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    MaxPB said:

    If GA and FL are going to Trump then how does NC go to Biden? Seems like a disconnect there.

    NC is just polls based.

    If Trump is outperforming in FL and GA, he'll outperform (probably) in NC.
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    Does anyone know for sure that the NY Times Florida totals include all the postal votes?
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Surely the Dems can't bollocks another election?

    Refuse to believe it. Florida is effectively Trump's home state.
  • Mysticrose
    Mysticrose Posts: 4,688
    stjohn said:

    Biden now 5.9-6.0 Florida.

    That's a buy
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Needle now says >95% Trump in Florida.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    FL now "Pretty likely Trump", and the needle has gone way to one side.
  • Mysticrose
    Mysticrose Posts: 4,688
    DAlexander said:

    Mysticrose said:

    According to CNN that Miami Dade hasn't included mail voting or today's in person vote - both of which are likely to favour Biden. I think. They made a huge GOTV today.

    If that's the case then they can still win the state I would have thought.
    Yep
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    MarqueeMark said:

    Surely the Dems can't bollocks another election?

    Biden was the best they had apparently lol!
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    Early Ohio results seem decent for Biden.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Mysticrose said:

    stjohn said:

    Biden now 5.9-6.0 Florida.

    That's a buy
    It's not a buy.

    Now, FL has been trending R for a while, and they won it in midterms where they (otherwise) did badly

    But Trump has won FL
  • MrEd
    MrEd Posts: 5,578
    DAlexander said:

    Mysticrose said:

    According to CNN that Miami Dade hasn't included mail voting or today's in person vote - both of which are likely to favour Biden. I think. They made a huge GOTV today.

    If that's the case then they can still win the state I would have thought.
    Can't see that though because it states the vote is 84% in.
  • Mysticrose
    Mysticrose Posts: 4,688
    I'm not convinced by NYT's Florida call at all.
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    Pinellas now 90% reporting, Biden only 0.7% ahead.
  • londonpubman
    londonpubman Posts: 3,665
    Trump relying on the Panhandle now in Florida...
  • Anabobazina
    Anabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Stocky said:

    Is anyone else getting a bad feeling about this yet?

    Yes, I've had a bad feeling for months!!
  • CorrectHorseBattery
    CorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    I've sobered up a bit with this :(
This discussion has been closed.

Categories