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First?0
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Big Don is going to be sent to the showers early0
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Ah, second.0
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2nd - like Trump.0
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Are these Florida counties counting early votes first?0
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licia Parlapiano, in Washington 7m ago
In Florida, early voting and counted mail ballots, which are likely to be stronger for Democrats, are expected by 8:30 p.m. ET.0 -
Exit poll:
Chances of CHB making it to 5AM only at 45%2 -
Dems crossover in Florida on Betfair.0
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Won't need to.CorrectHorseBattery said:Exit poll:
Chances of CHB making it to 5AM only at 45%0 -
Broward looking good too for Joe.0
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FL neck and neck.0
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This is definitely swing to Dems territory now.
Biden still a 310 ECV buy ...0 -
Can I put in my thanks to @TSE for keeping all of this functioning tonight?10
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Biden down to +7 in Pinellas0
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119 votes have now been counted in Palm Beach...0
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PB is a legendary site, thanks to staff for keeping it going also the nice people I talk to here and who are interesting
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FPT:
"Richard_Tyndall said:
I don't understand the BBC results map.
They are showing that so far 11% of the votes in Indiana have been counted but they are already showing it as a Trump win.
Similarly with a lot of the Congressional seats in various states where they show less than 10% of the vote counted but already say who has won the district."
The exit polls must be showing an overwhelming victory for the candidate in question.1 -
Poor @rcs1000, always forgotten.RochdalePioneers said:Can I put in my thanks to @TSE for keeping all of this functioning tonight?
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Biden has now edged in front on total votes in FL, but bear in mind early votes should be better for him. (And that Broward is only 16% in)0
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With all this electronic counting and distributing of results, there must be some data analysts who make a killing on the spreads every year.0
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Looking like a comfortable Biden win to me. But I admit it's early and obvs these trends need to be replicated but the Dems ought to be happy right now.
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Miami Dade numbers are HORRIBLE for Biden. He's up 9 vs 29 win for Clinton.
I think.
I may be wrong.0 -
Biden only on 54% in Miami Dade county, Clinton got 64% there in 2016 so some Cuban Hispanics seem to have switched to Trump0
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Bellwether status: UnconfirmedTheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/pme_politics/status/1323781027840565249?s=210 -
Clinton won Hillsborough by a shade under 7%0
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Aren't the Dems down in Miami-Dade?0
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That's very brave at this stage.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
12 points or 12 votes?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Florida is a fascianting microcosm isn't it. So close in so many elections!0
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If Florida goes Biden has he won0
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Interesting how Broward has moved 10 points to Biden, and Miami-Dade 10 points to Trump.0
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Pasco County, Florida
est 79% of vote in: Trump 130,278, Biden 101,252
2016 was with 100%: Trump 142,101, Clinton 90,142
Let's ASSUME an extreme and unplausibly favourable scenario for Trump, that the other 21% breaks 3:1 to Trump. i.e. Trump 46,159, Biden 15,386
2020 total would then be Trump 176,437, Biden 116,638
Even then that's a significant swing to Biden. I think Trump's toast.0 -
I agree. Calling the election for Biden.Anabobazina said:
That's very brave at this stage.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Pinellas down to Biden +60
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It's like calling 4 seats for Labour in Liverpool tbf.Andy_JS said:FPT:
"Richard_Tyndall said:
I don't understand the BBC results map.
They are showing that so far 11% of the votes in Indiana have been counted but they are already showing it as a Trump win.
Similarly with a lot of the Congressional seats in various states where they show less than 10% of the vote counted but already say who has won the district."
The exit polls must be showing an overwhelming victory for the candidate in question.0 -
What has happened in Miami Dade???0
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NYTimes needles are live.0
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Yep. Pretty much.CorrectHorseBattery said:If Florida goes Biden has he won
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With FL leaning Trump, but GA and NC Biden.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-president.html0 -
Screw the presidential, I'm interested in the ballot initiatives - will Florida vote to establish a top two open primary system?1
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Florida +3 Trump according to NY TImes0
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Biden drifting in Florida. Now 2.74-2.760
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The US is lucky most of the key swing states are in the Eastern timezones. The way they do this would be crazy if California decided the winner.1
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Republicans are 4/7 on Betfair for Florida now0
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Huge swing to Trump in Miami-Dade so far but it's election day vote0
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I'm up still (grrr) and spotted this:rcs1000 said:Miami Dade numbers are HORRIBLE for Biden. He's up 9 vs 29 win for Clinton.
I think.
I may be wrong.
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/13237810426129039430 -
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https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-florida.htmlDAlexander said:Florida +3 Trump according to NY TImes
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Florida is moving towards Trump in the betting odds. He's on about 1.54 now compared to 1.8 a few minutes ago.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1703513640 -
IMPORTANT NEWS: My pizza is here2
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Titter.Gallowgate said:0 -
Trump gets the votes of Cuban-Americans?TheWhiteRabbit said:What has happened in Miami Dade???
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GIMME GIMME YUM YUM!RochdalePioneers said:IMPORTANT NEWS: My pizza is here
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Not sure how the NC projection is being made though. 0 votes counted.1
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That could be the Miami-Dade data which seems to suggest fewer Latino and African-Americans.Andy_JS said:Florida is moving towards Trump in the betting odds. He's on about 1.54 now compared to 1.8 a few minutes ago.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.170351364
But it's more likely following the running totals which is a pretty daft way of telling what's happening.0 -
Needles:
Florida: Trump +3.0
Georgia: Biden +0.4
North Carolina: Biden +2.0
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-president.html0 -
Pinellas down to +5
Remember that it was Clinton +1.5ish in 2016. Biden will want it to be at 3-4% at the end of the evening and right now I'd reckon it's looking like +2-2.5ish.
That's real squeaky bum time for everyone.1 -
Miami Dade not great for Biden however – a word of caution there.0
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Democrats gone too long in Florida.. Now at 3.2.
I have topped up.0 -
Duval now goes the other way.
Swinging like an unhappily married couple on their first MDMA.0 -
By the same token, they're even more lucky the Earth rotates East to West, rather than West to East.williamglenn said:The US is lucky most of the key swing states are in the Eastern timezones. The way they do this would be crazy if California decided the winner.
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Why are Florida so quick with the counting compared to some others?0
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NC numbers pretty nice for Biden. Somewhat echoes what their campaign were saying earlier.0
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They are discussing places where the vote count is like 600 to 300... and then they start discussing 33% leads.
Well... yes... but!
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Miami Dade has not gone well for Biden.0
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South Carolina currently Trump 65% Biden 34%0
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Was going to say Trump won that county!lockhimup said:
It was Trump by 1.2rcs1000 said:Pinellas down to +5
Remember that it was Clinton +1.5ish in 2016. Biden will want it to be at 3-4% at the end of the evening and right now I'd reckon it's looking like +2-2.5ish.
That's real squeaky bum time for everyone.0 -
Trump by 1.08% according to Wikilockhimup said:
It was Trump by 1.2rcs1000 said:Pinellas down to +5
Remember that it was Clinton +1.5ish in 2016. Biden will want it to be at 3-4% at the end of the evening and right now I'd reckon it's looking like +2-2.5ish.
That's real squeaky bum time for everyone.
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Vermont Biden 63% Trump 37%0
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Democrats now at 4.7 in Florida!
Overreaction if you ask me.0 -
Biden down to +4 in Pinellas
269-269 here we come.0 -
kle4 said:
Why are Florida so quick with the counting compared to some others?
Legacy of the 2000 shambles?0 -
Is Betfair still mostly British on a night like this? I ask because I think it’s just responding to everything CNN is saying, intelligent or not.0
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It was! I thought it was the other way around.lockhimup said:
It was Trump by 1.2rcs1000 said:Pinellas down to +5
Remember that it was Clinton +1.5ish in 2016. Biden will want it to be at 3-4% at the end of the evening and right now I'd reckon it's looking like +2-2.5ish.
That's real squeaky bum time for everyone.
My bad.0 -
FL Now "quite likely Trump" on the NYTimes needle.0
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Miami-Dade looks terrible for Biden - but it's the only County like that0
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Needle gives Trump a 90% chance of winning Florida.Casino_Royale said:Democrats now at 4.7 in Florida!
Overreaction if you ask me.0 -
NYT saying Florida 91% chance of Trump.0
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Sumter County 67% Trump after 88% precincts counted - that’s right on the bubble isn’t it?0
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Georgia to +0.5 Trump with NYTAndy_JS said:Needles:
Florida: Trump +3.0
Georgia: Biden +0.4
North Carolina: Biden +2.0
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-president.html1 -
Florida really isn't vital for Biden. It is for Trump.Drutt said:Biden down to +4 in Pinellas
269-269 here we come.0 -
Holds Fla. Loses Ga.?0
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NYTimes thinks 91% chance for Trump in Florida.0
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Does NYT allow for % of early vote?0
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How accurate is the NYT Needle?
Though over 50% of votes in already seems a lot.0 -
I am very glad I have two monitors and my laptop tonight.0
