politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight Ed Miliband is a step closer to Downing Street
Comments
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Crossover with the Conservatives, or crossover with the LDs?MrJones said:
There's that as well but i'm wondering even sooner than that i.e. if there might be a biggish jump in the yougov polling in the next few days.anotherDave said:
It's certainly looking good.MrJones said:
I dunno. Over the last few years things have moved about ten times slower than i thought they would but now they seem to be going twice as fast as i thought so i wonder if things might go a bit quicker than that if the polling start heading toward crossover.anotherDave said:
Hopefully we'll get the answer to that next May! :-)MrJones said:
i wonder how big a difference an extra 2-3% would make?anotherDave said:
UKIP got >600 second place results. Perhaps they just fell short?AndyJS said:It's odd how UKIP haven't made any impact or effort in counties like Worcestershire and Warwickshire. I think it's more to do with poor organisation rather than a lack of potential support.
https://twitter.com/GawainTowler/status/330333469945253889
Maybe the Eurozone will implode and change the cards?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
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It's not just David Davies with the helpful advice:
Tory councillor: dishonest Cameron has ditched our values. No wonder people are voting Ukip I lost my seat in the Ukip surge because David Cameron has ditched our core values and no-one believes he will give us a referendum on Europe.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/local-elections/10035060/Tory-councillor-dishonest-Cameron-has-ditched-our-values.-No-wonder-people-are-voting-Ukip.html0 -
Have you ever considered becoming a benevolent dictator? That way you could be sure of elections producing the right result.Roger said:I'm sure it's been mentioned but Nick Robinson took his lead from Mike and told the 'extraordinary' story of how five times as many UKIP voters didn't get their children vaccinated as voters of the other parties. He was using it as an illustration that UKIPers don't trust the establishment. (In fact it just confirmed what most of us already know-it's a party that attracts flat earthers and fruitcakes).
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Conservatives. It's not really my area of knowledge but if it's 25 plays 23 in the locals then i'd have thought there's a chance of a tipping point coming up.anotherDave said:
Crossover with the Conservatives, or crossover with the LDs?MrJones said:
There's that as well but i'm wondering even sooner than that i.e. if there might be a biggish jump in the yougov polling in the next few days.anotherDave said:
It's certainly looking good.MrJones said:
I dunno. Over the last few years things have moved about ten times slower than i thought they would but now they seem to be going twice as fast as i thought so i wonder if things might go a bit quicker than that if the polling start heading toward crossover.anotherDave said:
Hopefully we'll get the answer to that next May! :-)MrJones said:
i wonder how big a difference an extra 2-3% would make?anotherDave said:
UKIP got >600 second place results. Perhaps they just fell short?AndyJS said:It's odd how UKIP haven't made any impact or effort in counties like Worcestershire and Warwickshire. I think it's more to do with poor organisation rather than a lack of potential support.
https://twitter.com/GawainTowler/status/330333469945253889
Maybe the Eurozone will implode and change the cards?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
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2015 entirely about the Tories ability to reclaim UKIP votes.0
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Now that would be fun!MrJones said:
Conservatives. It's not really my area of knowledge but if it's 25 plays 23 in the locals then i'd have thought there's a chance of a tipping point coming up.anotherDave said:
Crossover with the Conservatives, or crossover with the LDs?MrJones said:
There's that as well but i'm wondering even sooner than that i.e. if there might be a biggish jump in the yougov polling in the next few days.anotherDave said:
It's certainly looking good.MrJones said:
I dunno. Over the last few years things have moved about ten times slower than i thought they would but now they seem to be going twice as fast as i thought so i wonder if things might go a bit quicker than that if the polling start heading toward crossover.anotherDave said:
Hopefully we'll get the answer to that next May! :-)MrJones said:
i wonder how big a difference an extra 2-3% would make?anotherDave said:
UKIP got >600 second place results. Perhaps they just fell short?AndyJS said:It's odd how UKIP haven't made any impact or effort in counties like Worcestershire and Warwickshire. I think it's more to do with poor organisation rather than a lack of potential support.
https://twitter.com/GawainTowler/status/330333469945253889
Maybe the Eurozone will implode and change the cards?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
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Here's what happened in Surrey:
Seats Votes
Conservative 58 40%
Liberal Democr 9 16%
UKIP 3 22%
Residents Assoc 8 7%
Labour 1 11%
The Green Party 1 2%
So the Tory vote was far more efficient than the other parties' votes. True, there were several UKIP near misses - but their vote was very inefficient.0 -
Corby constituency:
Lab 10867 40.2%
Con 8589 31.7%
UKIP 3575 13.2%
LD 1996 7.4%
Ind 933 3.4%
BNP 872 3.2%
Grn 234 0.9%0 -
yeah, all politics aside the headless chicken race on telly would be a screamanotherDave said:
Now that would be fun!MrJones said:
Conservatives. It's not really my area of knowledge but if it's 25 plays 23 in the locals then i'd have thought there's a chance of a tipping point coming up.anotherDave said:
Crossover with the Conservatives, or crossover with the LDs?MrJones said:
There's that as well but i'm wondering even sooner than that i.e. if there might be a biggish jump in the yougov polling in the next few days.anotherDave said:
It's certainly looking good.MrJones said:
I dunno. Over the last few years things have moved about ten times slower than i thought they would but now they seem to be going twice as fast as i thought so i wonder if things might go a bit quicker than that if the polling start heading toward crossover.anotherDave said:
Hopefully we'll get the answer to that next May! :-)MrJones said:
i wonder how big a difference an extra 2-3% would make?anotherDave said:
UKIP got >600 second place results. Perhaps they just fell short?AndyJS said:It's odd how UKIP haven't made any impact or effort in counties like Worcestershire and Warwickshire. I think it's more to do with poor organisation rather than a lack of potential support.
https://twitter.com/GawainTowler/status/330333469945253889
Maybe the Eurozone will implode and change the cards?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary0 -
But what is there to blame Cameron for, tim?tim said:Tony Gallagher @gallaghereditor
Cameron in an Eton mess: David Davis pleads for no more old boy advisors in v sharp commentary for @telegraph splash tmrw
There's going to be a concerted effort in the party and the press to blame the Chumocracy.
His party exceeded all expectations today. And the general view is that the Conservative Party is more rather than less likely to lead a government after 2015 as a result of this year's local election results.0 -
BTW for those under the strange misapprehension that Cammie had apologised for calling UKIP and Farage "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists", he didn't.
When asked directly if he stood by it he refused to answer and simply said it was a bad idea.
That's your fop chumocracy arrogance right there. A simple sorry never occurred to Cammie.0 -
Anne JPG made the point the other day that an inefficient/ widespread vote has the potential to suddenly turn up big wins, like the crossover proposed below by Mr Jones.itdoesntaddup said:Here's what happened in Surrey:
Seats Votes
Conservative 58 40%
Liberal Democr 9 16%
UKIP 3 22%
Residents Assoc 8 7%
Labour 1 11%
The Green Party 1 2%
So the Tory vote was far more efficient than the other parties' votes. True, there were several UKIP near misses - but their vote was very inefficient.
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That's exactly the joker in the pack that makes this UKIP surge so potentially threatening to the political establishment. All bets are off on the next economic eurogasm - Farage can have a field day with it all if he plays his cards right.anotherDave said:
It's certainly looking good.MrJones said:
I dunno. Over the last few years things have moved about ten times slower than i thought they would but now they seem to be going twice as fast as i thought so i wonder if things might go a bit quicker than that if the polling start heading toward crossover.anotherDave said:
Hopefully we'll get the answer to that next May! :-)MrJones said:
i wonder how big a difference an extra 2-3% would make?anotherDave said:
UKIP got >600 second place results. Perhaps they just fell short?AndybJS said:It's odd how UKIP haven't made any impact or effort in counties like Worcestershire and Warwickshire. I think it's more to do with poor organisation rather than a lack of potential support.
https://twitter.com/GawainTowler/status/330333469945253889
Maybe the Eurozone will implode and change the cards?0 -
The establishment feels the power of the people
Ukip's Nigel Farage is an anti-politician who embodies many of the characteristics that people feel are absent from his mainstream rivals
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/10035707/The-establishment-feels-the-power-of-the-people.html0 -
I think it may just as important to Lib Dems.TheSheikofShake said:2015 entirely about the Tories ability to reclaim UKIP votes.
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I think a big influx of EU immigrants helps UKIP, but the Eurozone imploding could take away their strongest policy, by forcing a referendum, or dissolving the EU.hunchman said:
That's exactly the joker in the pack that makes this UKIP surge so potentially threatening to the political establishment. All bets are off on the next economic eurogasm - Farage can have a field day with it all if he plays his cards right.anotherDave said:
It's certainly looking good.MrJones said:
I dunno. Over the last few years things have moved about ten times slower than i thought they would but now they seem to be going twice as fast as i thought so i wonder if things might go a bit quicker than that if the polling start heading toward crossover.anotherDave said:
Hopefully we'll get the answer to that next May! :-)MrJones said:
i wonder how big a difference an extra 2-3% would make?anotherDave said:
UKIP got >600 second place results. Perhaps they just fell short?AndybJS said:It's odd how UKIP haven't made any impact or effort in counties like Worcestershire and Warwickshire. I think it's more to do with poor organisation rather than a lack of potential support.
https://twitter.com/GawainTowler/status/330333469945253889
Maybe the Eurozone will implode and change the cards?
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Whilst I agree with you that there is a high probability of an "economic eurogasm", I am not convinced that it would play into Farage's hands.hunchman said:
That's exactly the joker in the pack that makes this UKIP surge so potentially threatening to the political establishment. All bets are off on the next economic eurogasm - Farage can have a field day with it all if he plays his cards right.anotherDave said:
It's certainly looking good.MrJones said:
I dunno. Over the last few years things have moved about ten times slower than i thought they would but now they seem to be going twice as fast as i thought so i wonder if things might go a bit quicker than that if the polling start heading toward crossover.anotherDave said:
Hopefully we'll get the answer to that next May! :-)MrJones said:
i wonder how big a difference an extra 2-3% would make?anotherDave said:
UKIP got >600 second place results. Perhaps they just fell short?AndybJS said:It's odd how UKIP haven't made any impact or effort in counties like Worcestershire and Warwickshire. I think it's more to do with poor organisation rather than a lack of potential support.
https://twitter.com/GawainTowler/status/330333469945253889
Maybe the Eurozone will implode and change the cards?
When a major political crisis or opportunity arises, it tends to benefit the established parties. This applies even when minor parties are most closely identified with the causes of the event.
A typical example would be Northern Ireland where the conditions for the Good Friday Agreement were advanced by minor parties but the benefits and final negotiations were taken over by the main players.
If a massive crisis arises in Europe shaking the foundations of the EU it will be Cameron who negotiates any resolution with his counterparts. Farage is Rosencrantz not Hamlet.
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Actually it's more to do with boots on the ground and that for UKIP this election was an all out effort. Putting up 1720 candidates was a major miracle for a party the size of UKIP.anotherDave said:
UKIP got >600 second place results. Perhaps they just fell short?AndyJS said:It's odd how UKIP haven't made any impact or effort in counties like Worcestershire and Warwickshire. I think it's more to do with poor organisation rather than a lack of potential support.
https://twitter.com/GawainTowler/status/330333469945253889
In a way AndyJS' remark on organisation was pertinent. My daughter in law, living in Wiltshire joined UKIP as a member about 3 weeks ago. She told me that while she received a mass of lit and posters, the party branch is only really getting started and is depending on a very few but enthusiastic local people. I suspect that is now the picture in a lot of west country areas and accounts for the very moderate performance by candidates as compared with the east of the country.
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In South Shields, UKIP came from nowhere to get 24%.itdoesntaddup said:
I think it may just as important to Lib Dems.TheSheikofShake said:2015 entirely about the Tories ability to reclaim UKIP votes.
The LDs went down by 13%, the Tories by 10%.0 -
On voting systems:
Clearly Labour will hang on to FPTP until the grim death. UKIP might once have wondered how they were ever going to get traction without a change in the system, but I suspect no longer: AV or some form of PR will look like only offering a short term advantage that would be eclipsed by the benefit of FPTP if they become a major party: they would hardly want a Lib/Lab/Con opposition able to outvote them under PR. The Lib Dems will look for anything that gives them Banzhaf power - i.e. balancing votes in hung parliaments. I doubt Conservatives have a clue what might work for them.0 -
So you're saying Cameron needs to create a crisis to save his skin ? Sending Osborne to Europe would certainly do it.AveryLP said:
Whilst I agree with you that there is a high probability of an "economic eurogasm", I am not convinced that it would play into Farage's hands.hunchman said:
That's exactly the joker in the pack that makes this UKIP surge so potentially threatening to the political establishment. All bets are off on the next economic eurogasm - Farage can have a field day with it all if he plays his cards right.anotherDave said:
It's certainly looking good.MrJones said:
I dunno. Over the last few years things have moved about ten times slower than i thought they would but now they seem to be going twice as fast as i thought so i wonder if things might go a bit quicker than that if the polling start heading toward crossover.anotherDave said:
Hopefully we'll get the answer to that next May! :-)MrJones said:
i wonder how big a difference an extra 2-3% would make?anotherDave said:
UKIP got >600 second place results. Perhaps they just fell short?AndybJS said:It's odd how UKIP haven't made any impact or effort in counties like Worcestershire and Warwickshire. I think it's more to do with poor organisation rather than a lack of potential support.
https://twitter.com/GawainTowler/status/330333469945253889
Maybe the Eurozone will implode and change the cards?
When a major political crisis or opportunity arises, it tends to benefit the established parties. This applies even when minor parties are most closely identified with the causes of the event.
A typical example would be Northern Ireland where the conditions for the Good Friday Agreement were advanced by minor parties but the benefits and final negotiations were taken over by the main players.
If a massive crisis arises in Europe shaking the foundations of the EU it will be Cameron who negotiates any resolution with his counterparts. Farage will Rosencrantz not Hamlet.0 -
For the 2014 locals, they're going to need ~8000 candidates. Is that do-able?MikeK said:
Actually it's more to do with boots on the ground and that for UKIP this election was an all out effort. Putting up 1720 candidates was a major miracle for a party the size of UKIP.anotherDave said:
UKIP got >600 second place results. Perhaps they just fell short?AndyJS said:It's odd how UKIP haven't made any impact or effort in counties like Worcestershire and Warwickshire. I think it's more to do with poor organisation rather than a lack of potential support.
https://twitter.com/GawainTowler/status/330333469945253889
In a way AndyJS' remark on organisation was pertinent. My daughter in law, living in Wiltshire joined UKIP as a member about 3 weeks ago. She told me that while she received a mass of lit and posters, the party branch is only really getting started and is depending on a very few but enthusiastic local people. I suspect that is now the picture in a lot of west country areas and accounts for the very moderate performance by candidates as compared with the east of the country.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2010
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Avery, I am not always sure when the analysis stops and the satire begins but as this is the second time you've made this comment it might be worth pointing out that the GFA was the culmination of a process led by the two mainstream political parties of the time. They only became minor parties afterwards.AveryLP said:
A typical example would be Northern Ireland where the conditions for the Good Friday Agreement were advanced by minor parties but the benefits and final negotiations were taken over by the main players.
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From where they are today they can expect more financial backers, more members and more defectors from other parties.anotherDave said:
For the 2014 locals, they're going to need ~8000 candidates. Is that do-able?MikeK said:
Actually it's more to do with boots on the ground and that for UKIP this election was an all out effort. Putting up 1720 candidates was a major miracle for a party the size of UKIP.anotherDave said:
UKIP got >600 second place results. Perhaps they just fell short?AndyJS said:It's odd how UKIP haven't made any impact or effort in counties like Worcestershire and Warwickshire. I think it's more to do with poor organisation rather than a lack of potential support.
https://twitter.com/GawainTowler/status/330333469945253889
In a way AndyJS' remark on organisation was pertinent. My daughter in law, living in Wiltshire joined UKIP as a member about 3 weeks ago. She told me that while she received a mass of lit and posters, the party branch is only really getting started and is depending on a very few but enthusiastic local people. I suspect that is now the picture in a lot of west country areas and accounts for the very moderate performance by candidates as compared with the east of the country.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_20100 -
Wonder when the pass over will be of ukip membership going above the conservatives,today must have done wonders for ukip membership with the results and publicity.0
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Cameron could do with the right kind of crisis - after all Maggie had her Falklands - but he doesn't need it. It is just a long boring slog to get the country to the position where there are real political options. A bit like deferring a decision on where to holiday until the credit card debts are paid off.Alanbrooke said:
So you're saying Cameron needs to create a crisis to save his skin ? Sending Osborne to Europe would certainly do it.AveryLP said:
Whilst I agree with you that there is a high probability of an "economic eurogasm", I am not convinced that it would play into Farage's hands.hunchman said:
That's exactly the joker in the pack that makes this UKIP surge so potentially threatening to the political establishment. All bets are off on the next economic eurogasm - Farage can have a field day with it all if he plays his cards right.anotherDave said:
It's certainly looking good.MrJones said:
I dunno. Over the last few years things have moved about ten times slower than i thought they would but now they seem to be going twice as fast as i thought so i wonder if things might go a bit quicker than that if the polling start heading toward crossover.anotherDave said:
Hopefully we'll get the answer to that next May! :-)MrJones said:
i wonder how big a difference an extra 2-3% would make?anotherDave said:
UKIP got >600 second place results. Perhaps they just fell short?AndybJS said:It's odd how UKIP haven't made any impact or effort in counties like Worcestershire and Warwickshire. I think it's more to do with poor organisation rather than a lack of potential support.
https://twitter.com/GawainTowler/status/330333469945253889
Maybe the Eurozone will implode and change the cards?
When a major political crisis or opportunity arises, it tends to benefit the established parties. This applies even when minor parties are most closely identified with the causes of the event.
A typical example would be Northern Ireland where the conditions for the Good Friday Agreement were advanced by minor parties but the benefits and final negotiations were taken over by the main players.
If a massive crisis arises in Europe shaking the foundations of the EU it will be Cameron who negotiates any resolution with his counterparts. Farage will Rosencrantz not Hamlet.
As for sending Osborne to the Europe this is an option but we need to wait until 2017, before his job is done here.
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For a short while, the public might cling to the established parties like what happened in 2008, but sooner or later the feelings of disgust will come to the fore I think. The establishment will make out that they've got things under control, and then events will show most clearly that they haven't. Or at least I think that's how things could play out.AveryLP said:
Whilst I agree with you that there is a high probability of an "economic eurogasm", I am not convinced that it would play into Farage's hands.hunchman said:
That's exactly the joker in the pack that makes this UKIP surge so potentially threatening to the political establishment. All bets are off on the next economic eurogasm - Farage can have a field day with it all if he plays his cards right.anotherDave said:
It's certainly looking good.MrJones said:
I dunno. Over the last few years things have moved about ten times slower than i thought they would but now they seem to be going twice as fast as i thought so i wonder if things might go a bit quicker than that if the polling start heading toward crossover.anotherDave said:
Hopefully we'll get the answer to that next May! :-)MrJones said:
i wonder how big a difference an extra 2-3% would make?anotherDave said:
UKIP got >600 second place results. Perhaps they just fell short?AndybJS said:It's odd how UKIP haven't made any impact or effort in counties like Worcestershire and Warwickshire. I think it's more to do with poor organisation rather than a lack of potential support.
https://twitter.com/GawainTowler/status/330333469945253889
Maybe the Eurozone will implode and change the cards?
When a major political crisis or opportunity arises, it tends to benefit the established parties. This applies even when minor parties are most closely identified with the causes of the event.
A typical example would be Northern Ireland where the conditions for the Good Friday Agreement were advanced by minor parties but the benefits and final negotiations were taken over by the main players.
If a massive crisis arises in Europe shaking the foundations of the EU it will be Cameron who negotiates any resolution with his counterparts. Farage will Rosencrantz not Hamlet.0 -
LOL Mr P. I somehow think Mr Cameron has few real political options within his own party let alone the country.AveryLP said:
Cameron could do with the right kind of crisis - after all Maggie had her Falklands - but he doesn't need it. It is just a long boring slog to get the country to the position where there are real political options. A bit like deferring a decision on where to holiday until the credit card debts are paid off.Alanbrooke said:
So you're saying Cameron needs to create a crisis to save his skin ? Sending Osborne to Europe would certainly do it.AveryLP said:
Whilst I agree with you that there is a high probability of an "economic eurogasm", I am not convinced that it would play into Farage's hands.hunchman said:
That's exactly the joker in the pack that makes this UKIP surge so potentially threatening to the political establishment. All bets are off on the next economic eurogasm - Farage can have a field day with it all if he plays his cards right.anotherDave said:
It's certainly looking good.MrJones said:
I dunno. Over the last few years things have moved about ten times slower than i thought they would but now they seem to be going twice as fast as i thought so i wonder if things might go a bit quicker than that if the polling start heading toward crossover.anotherDave said:
Hopefully we'll get the answer to that next May! :-)MrJones said:
i wonder how big a difference an extra 2-3% would make?anotherDave said:
UKIP got >600 second place results. Perhaps they just fell short?AndybJS said:It's odd how UKIP haven't made any impact or effort in counties like Worcestershire and Warwickshire. I think it's more to do with poor organisation rather than a lack of potential support.
https://twitter.com/GawainTowler/status/330333469945253889
Maybe the Eurozone will implode and change the cards?
When a major political crisis or opportunity arises, it tends to benefit the established parties. This applies even when minor parties are most closely identified with the causes of the event.
A typical example would be Northern Ireland where the conditions for the Good Friday Agreement were advanced by minor parties but the benefits and final negotiations were taken over by the main players.
If a massive crisis arises in Europe shaking the foundations of the EU it will be Cameron who negotiates any resolution with his counterparts. Farage will Rosencrantz not Hamlet.
As for sending Osborne to the Europe this is an option but we need to wait until 2017, before his job is done here.
As for GO heading to Europe I think that will be long before 2017 and to kill some spare time rather than working.0 -
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Steve Peters is amazing - you saw all his genius come to the fore there when Ronnie won that last frame. That would never have happened before Ronnie getting help from SP. Can't see Ronnie losing this now.0
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The Daily Telegraph is not going to be happy reading for Cameron. The headline is 'Cameron's Eton Mess'0
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Here in Britain, this animus is directed towards mainstream political parties, the police and judiciary, the BBC and the media in general, local and national government. Politicians such as Kenneth Clarke who caricatured Ukip’s members as “clowns” simply make their point for them by displaying a lofty disdain for the ordinary voter, an infuriatingly elitist “we know best” attitude.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/10035707/The-establishment-feels-the-power-of-the-people.html
The article then pretty does what it accuses Clarke of doing by trying to pigeon hole UKIP supporters down to three convenient issues and dismissing the wider concerns about the rotten state of the British establishment. Even the bloody Telegraph doesn't get it (it is a Freakshow insider after all).0 -
UKIP need a couple of thousand in2014.0
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You mean this one:Ricardohos said:The Daily Telegraph is not going to be happy reading for Cameron. The headline is 'Cameron's Eton Mess'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/local-elections/10037011/Local-elections-David-Camerons-Eton-mess.html
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I was aware that my analogy would not bear the full weight of (near) native analysis, Neil.Neil said:
Avery, I am not always sure when the analysis stops and the satire begins but as this is the second time you've made this comment it might be worth pointing out that the GFA was the culmination of a process led by the two mainstream political parties of the time. They only became minor parties afterwards.AveryLP said:
A typical example would be Northern Ireland where the conditions for the Good Friday Agreement were advanced by minor parties but the benefits and final negotiations were taken over by the main players.
But there is enough element of truth in it to make a general point. It was really only when Paisley sat down with Adams that the real deal was on, even though I accept what you say about the shift in party fortunes prior to this event.
And no, I am not an expert on this difficult subject so will, on principle, defer to any better reasoned or more factually based application.
And my post was intended to be provocatively flippant rather than deliberately satirical!0 -
Three things Cameron can do that will bring voters back to him (It would mean the end of the coalition ;-) )
1 - Abu Qatada on a plain to Jordan 2 - put emergency EU powers on no open borders with Romania/Bulgaria 3 - bring forward the EU referendum to a earlier date.
Go nuclear cammers ;-)0 -
Please Avery just leave it.AveryLP said:
I was aware that my analogy would not bear the full weight of (near) native analysis, Neil.Neil said:
Avery, I am not always sure when the analysis stops and the satire begins but as this is the second time you've made this comment it might be worth pointing out that the GFA was the culmination of a process led by the two mainstream political parties of the time. They only became minor parties afterwards.AveryLP said:
A typical example would be Northern Ireland where the conditions for the Good Friday Agreement were advanced by minor parties but the benefits and final negotiations were taken over by the main players.
But there is enough element of truth in it to make a general point. It was really only when Paisley sat down with Adams that the real deal was on, even though I accept what you say about the shift in party fortunes prior to this event.
And no, I am not an expert on this difficult subject so will, on principle, defer to any better reasoned or more factually based application.
And my post was intended to be provocatively flippant rather than deliberately satirical!0 -
Does that include those with no children?Roger said:I'm sure it's been mentioned but Nick Robinson took his lead from Mike and told the 'extraordinary' story of how five times as many UKIP voters didn't get their children vaccinated as voters of the other parties. He was using it as an illustration that UKIPers don't trust the establishment. (In fact it just confirmed what most of us already know-it's a party that attracts flat earthers and fruitcakes).
Your report is an inaccurate travesty. Nick Robinson, who seemed to be particularly fired up anti-UKIP, did not say this. Please correct it.
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Didn't know there were many Kippers in Swansea??Lewis_Duckworth said:
Does that include those with no children?Roger said:I'm sure it's been mentioned but Nick Robinson took his lead from Mike and told the 'extraordinary' story of how five times as many UKIP voters didn't get their children vaccinated as voters of the other parties. He was using it as an illustration that UKIPers don't trust the establishment. (In fact it just confirmed what most of us already know-it's a party that attracts flat earthers and fruitcakes).
Your report is an inaccurate travesty. Nick Robinson, who seemed to be particularly fired up anti-UKIP, did not say this. Please correct it.0 -
He needs to grow a pair to implement all thatTykejohnno said:Three things Cameron can do that will bring voters back to him (It would mean the end of the coalition ;-) )
1 - Abu Qatada on a plain to Jordan 2 - put emergency EU powers on no open borders with Romania/Bulgaria 3 - bring forward the EU referendum to a earlier date.
Go nuclear cammers ;-)
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MirrorJames Times reporting Tory fears that @NadineDorriesMP will defect to #UKIP. Hopes surely?
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The Telegraph was one of the tory supporting papers that led the assault on the kippers and Farage. So you can't exactly be surprised there will be the slightest bit of introspection from them about the wisdom of that move.smithersjones2013 said:Even the bloody Telegraph doesn't get it (it is a Freakshow insider after all).
What is interesting is that, although some on her did point out that it would likely be counterproductive, just how big a failure it was. The days of blanket monsterings from the papers by themselves destroying a leader or party are long gone. The press influence continues in it's decline and scare stories and attacks simply do not have the currency they once did.
Somewhat unfortunate for Cammie and Crosby since they were relying on the tory papers monstering little Ed and doing most of their job for them. I'm afraid not. Little Ed and Balls will have to dig their own hole, Cammie and Osbrowne will still have to avoid digging themselves any deeper and only then will any press hysteria/attacks get much credence.
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I do wonder if Cameron was so keen on a coalition in 2010 rather than a minority government followed by a push for a majority a year later because of the different types of constituency.hunchman said:
Its still amazing after the 2010GE election that Cameron didn't get the message that former mining seats with WWC disenchantment with Labour eg Wakefield, Penistone & Stocksbridge and the like offer the Conservatives far more opportunity long term compared to middle class urban seats that have been drifting away from them long term eg Leeds NEanother_richard said:"The real problem for the tories is very simple indeed. Cameron doesn't want to win enough.
He just doesn't have the killer instinct. It shouldn't be that much of a surprise since he failed to win a majority in 2010 so had to go running to Clegg to save him."
Indeed.
Cameron wants to be liked by his opponents and shown deference by his own supporters.
So desperate pandering to guardianistas, surrounding himself with people like himself and despisal of uppity proles.
A fascinating combination of insecurity and arrogance.
That is Cameron thought the people of Sheffield Hallam, Twickenham, Manchester Withington, Edinburgh West, Bristol West etc were the sort of people whose interests the Conservatives should be promoting in government.
As opposed to the people of Grimsby, Morley, Wakefield, Penistone, Halifax etc who would have become the key voters to a majority Conservative government.
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Sunil, well at least one of them would be helpful ;-)0
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hunchmanhunchman said:
For a short while, the public might cling to the established parties like what happened in 2008, but sooner or later the feelings of disgust will come to the fore I think. The establishment will make out that they've got things under control, and then events will show most clearly that they haven't. Or at least I think that's how things could play out.AveryLP said:
Whilst I agree with you that there is a high probability of an "economic eurogasm", I am not convinced that it would play into Farage's hands.hunchman said:
That's exactly the joker in the pack that makes this UKIP surge so potentially threatening to the political establishment. All bets are off on the next economic eurogasm - Farage can have a field day with it all if he plays his cards right.anotherDave said:
It's certainly looking good.MrJones said:
I dunno. Over the last few years things have moved about ten times slower than i thought they would but now they seem to be going twice as fast as i thought so i wonder if things might go a bit quicker than that if the polling start heading toward crossover.anotherDave said:
Hopefully we'll get the answer to that next May! :-)MrJones said:
i wonder how big a difference an extra 2-3% would make?anotherDave said:
UKIP got >600 second place results. Perhaps they just fell short?AndybJS said:It's odd how UKIP haven't made any impact or effort in counties like Worcestershire and Warwickshire. I think it's more to do with poor organisation rather than a lack of potential support.
https://twitter.com/GawainTowler/status/330333469945253889
Maybe the Eurozone will implode and change the cards?
When a major political crisis or opportunity arises, it tends to benefit the established parties. This applies even when minor parties are most closely identified with the causes of the event.
A typical example would be Northern Ireland where the conditions for the Good Friday Agreement were advanced by minor parties but the benefits and final negotiations were taken over by the main players.
If a massive crisis arises in Europe shaking the foundations of the EU it will be Cameron who negotiates any resolution with his counterparts. Farage will Rosencrantz not Hamlet.
I find it difficult to envisage how 30% adult and 50% youth unemployment can be sustained in a contracting economy with banks stuffed fulled of overvalued assets. The problems Spain face will need Marshall plan type solutions based on broader based global agreements than just a US-Europe axis.
And I don't only see the downside as economic. There will be severe social tensions which may well escalate to semi-military conflict.
A solution to such problems will require at least Germany, the UK, the US, China and the OPEC countries to drive a solution. The only question is whether we are driven to it in reaction to a deepening crisis or whether it is possible to pre-empt it by wise prophylactic action.
Where are our global leaders? Their absence is both an opportunity and threat to the current poltical players.
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Well that proves your point because I really hadn't appreciated the Telegraph's leading role but there again after the disgraceful and salacious way they handled the expenses scandal its of no surprise. These days they are just as base as the Red Tops.Mick_Pork said:
The Telegraph was one of the tory supporting papers that led the assault on the kippers and Farage. So you can't exactly be surprised there will be the slightest bit of introspection from them about the wisdom of that move.smithersjones2013 said:Even the bloody Telegraph doesn't get it (it is a Freakshow insider after all).
What is interesting is that, although some on her did point out that it would likely be counterproductive, just how big a failure it was. The days of blanket monsterings from the papers by themselves destroying a leader or party are long gone. The press influence continues in it's decline and scare stories and attacks simply do not have the currency they once did.
Somewhat unfortunate for Cammie and Crosby since they were relying on the tory papers monstering little Ed and doing most of their job for them. I'm afraid not. Little Ed and Balls will have to dig their own hole, Cammie and Osbrowne will still have to avoid digging themselves any deeper and only then will any press hysteria/attacks get much credence.
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To develop that my further.
It has been suggested before that Cameron would prefer to work with and rely upon Nick Clegg rather than say Nadine Dorries of Philip Davies.
I think he would also prefer to rely upon Nick Clegg's voters rather than those of Dorries and Davies let alone those he would need to win to achieve an overall majority.
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0
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What is this???! We live in the worst areas in England!Sunil_Prasannan said:
He needs to grow a pair to implement all thatTykejohnno said:Three things Cameron can do that will bring voters back to him (It would mean the end of the coalition ;-) )
1 - Abu Qatada on a plain to Jordan 2 - put emergency EU powers on no open borders with Romania/Bulgaria 3 - bring forward the EU referendum to a earlier date.
Go nuclear cammers ;-)
http://www.ehow.co.uk/slideshow_12237376_worst-uk-cities-towns-live.html?utm_source=outbrain&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=outbrain
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Oh, I wouldn't say that. This Cameroon predicted a 25% UKIP vote share in South Shields. OK, it turned out to be 24.21%, but I think it's a bit harsh to call an overestimate by 0.79% a 'denial of reality'.Richard_Tyndall said:If nothing else, one thing yesterday has shown is that it is the Cameroons who are in denial of reality.
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! Absolutely. The insults from Mr Cameron and Clarke seemed heartfelt.another_richard said:
I think he would also prefer to rely upon Nick Clegg's voters rather than those of Dorries and Davies let alone those he would need to win to achieve an overall majority.
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As I said earlier over the next 2 years the most important thing for UKIP is how their new councilors perform. They will now be judged as equals to the three "main" parties by the press, and 140 new councilors with little or no party machine to help, will find being a councilor challenging. I am sure that some colorful inexperienced characters have been elected today, a lot I expect didn't expect to win (especially the chap who didn't even go to the count). In the past Farage has only had a few MEPS and a tiny number of councilors to lead and control. That has all changed now and he has become very high profile. Some of his MEPs really let him down in the past and that was out of a very small number. What he doesn't need are a few of his new councilors mucking up. If they perform well then he can rightfully say that they are a serious party delivering for their constituents. If the press (who will be watching much more closely now) get their teeth into a number of UKIP councilors not performing as a councilor should then it will put Farage in a very difficult position. I don't think going to a pub and smiling will then work. I think Nick P mentioned earlier a previous UKIP councilor who had never even voted at a council meeting. I am sure that local issues are not the first thing on the mind of a typical UKIP councilor. You cannot withdraw from the EU or reduce immigration at a local level. It will be interesting.0
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It happily chipped in. Not entirely sure the expenses scandal is a good example of bad newspaper practice. It was a massive scoop and once it got running there was no shortage of papers using it (Red Top and broadsheet) since it absolutely played in to the existing perception and dissatisfaction about MPs and the main parties. Your point about Red Tops and the Telegraph is however 100% correct. The story WAS offered to the Red Tops yet they failed to see just how huge a story it potentially was. Big mistake.smithersjones2013 said:
Well that proves your point because I really hadn't appreciated the Telegraph's leading role but there again after the disgraceful and salacious way they handled the expenses scandal its of no surprise. These days they are just as base as the Red Tops.0 -
Looks like the Tories would have held the Burton constituency:
(These county council division aggregates aren't a perfect comparison with the Burton constituency because Uttoxeter Rural includes Abbots Bromley, and Needwood Forest includes Branston).
Burton constituency, (including Uttoxeter Rural division but not Needwood Forest):
Con: 8,973 (39.5%)
Lab: 7,999 (35.2%)
UKIP: 4,356 (19.2%) {contested 5/7 divisions}
LD: 376 (1.7%) {contested 3/7 divisions}
Others: 1,020 (4.5%)
Changes since 2010:
Con: -5.0%
Lab: +3.3%
UKIP: +16.3%
LD: -14.1%
Others: -0.3%
Swing, Con to Lab: 4.2%.0 -
The David Davis article:
Tories must start listening to ordinary voters, not their old school chums
When Ukip gave the Conservative leadership a fright at the Eastleigh by-election, the knee-jerk response from the hierarchy was: “There will be no lurch to the Right!”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/local-elections/10037021/Tories-must-start-listening-to-ordinary-voters-not-their-old-school-chums.html
Davis writes:
But most of all we have to start convincing the people that we care about the things that matter to them.
In that respect, people matter as much as policies.
But then in talking about what issues matter he overlooks the two most symbolic issues of what he was talking about. Two freakin great elephants in the room that if they remain will ensure most UKIP voters will not forgive them. They are of course that insane energy policy with its ridiculous carbon targets and even moreso Camerons freakin moronic Aid targets which even Lord Ashcroft thinks is risible.
Until Cameron puts the British people before liberal elitist target culture then he is finished. He might as well go back to calling those voters closet rascists if he stands by such lunacy.0 -
"Like" and "Agree".currystar said:As I said earlier over the next 2 years the most important thing for UKIP is how their new councilors perform. They will now be judged as equals to the three "main" parties by the press, and 140 new councilors with little or no party machine to help, will find being a councilor challenging. I am sure that some colorful inexperienced characters have been elected today, a lot I expect didn't expect to win (especially the chap who didn't even go to the count). In the past Farage has only had a few MEPS and a tiny number of councilors to lead and control. That has all changed now and he has become very high profile. Some of his MEPs really let him down in the past and that was out of a very small number. What he doesn't need are a few of his new councilors mucking up. If they perform well then he can rightfully say that they are a serious party delivering for their constituents. If the press (who will be watching much more closely now) get their teeth into a number of UKIP councilors not performing as a councilor should then it will put Farage in a very difficult position. I don't think going to a pub and smiling will then work. I think Nick P mentioned earlier a previous UKIP councilor who had never even voted at a council meeting. I am sure that local issues are not the first thing on the mind of a typical UKIP councilor. You cannot withdraw from the EU or reduce immigration at a local level. It will be interesting.
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Why don't you come and join us in leafy Wanstead, Sam? It's one of the UK's 10 nicest places to live:sam said:
What is this???! We live in the worst areas in England!Sunil_Prasannan said:
He needs to grow a pair to implement all thatTykejohnno said:Three things Cameron can do that will bring voters back to him (It would mean the end of the coalition ;-) )
1 - Abu Qatada on a plain to Jordan 2 - put emergency EU powers on no open borders with Romania/Bulgaria 3 - bring forward the EU referendum to a earlier date.
Go nuclear cammers ;-)
http://www.ehow.co.uk/slideshow_12237376_worst-uk-cities-towns-live.html?utm_source=outbrain&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=outbrain
http://www.guardian-series.co.uk/news/10312001.Wanstead__one_of_best_places_to_live_/
Honest!
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0
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How many former MPs have been newly elected yesterday?
Charlotte Atkins (Staffs Moorlands 97-10) and Brian Jenkins (Tamworth 96-10) in Staffs.
David Borrow (South Ribble 97-10) in Lancashire (for a Preston division)
Bill Olner (Nuneaton 92-10) in Warwickshire
Richard Younger Ross (Teignbridge 2001-10) in Devon
Ivan Henderson (Harwich 97-05) is elected in Essex
Candy Atherton (Falmouth and Camborne 97-05) in Cornwall
Elizabeth Shields of Reydale 1986 by-election comes back on North Yorkshire council.
who else?
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Is Wanstead so different from Ilford or Rommo??!Peter_the_Punter said:
Why don't you come and join us in leafy Wanstead, Sam? It's one of the UK's 10 nicest places to live:sam said:
What is this???! We live in the worst areas in England!Sunil_Prasannan said:
He needs to grow a pair to implement all thatTykejohnno said:Three things Cameron can do that will bring voters back to him (It would mean the end of the coalition ;-) )
1 - Abu Qatada on a plain to Jordan 2 - put emergency EU powers on no open borders with Romania/Bulgaria 3 - bring forward the EU referendum to a earlier date.
Go nuclear cammers ;-)
http://www.ehow.co.uk/slideshow_12237376_worst-uk-cities-towns-live.html?utm_source=outbrain&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=outbrain
http://www.guardian-series.co.uk/news/10312001.Wanstead__one_of_best_places_to_live_/
Honest!
I actually live in Upminster don't you know?
Or Hupminister as tube drivers like to call it
Can't sign in on my iPad so used different account
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AveryLP said:
Hmmmmm all parties have a 'very small number' of MEP's. DIdn't the Tories have an MEP named Den Dover for example?currystar said:Some of his MEPs really let him down in the past and that was out of a very small number.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Den_Dover0 -
Four Essex teachers interviewed on Newsnight. None voted! First one comments "there's not enough for like .... ".
Edukashun, edukashun, edukashun, eh ...0 -
Gedling constituency:
Lab 42.6%% Con 26.86% UKIP 22.2% LD 6.4%
Burnley:
Lab 45.5% LD 27.5% Con 11.4% UKIP 10.2% (only 3 divisions out of 3)
Chorley (1 ward is in a division with South Ribble constituncy wards. I used the 2011 locals for it. So probably understimating the UKIP by 1%)
Lab 45.94% Con 34.48% UKIP 17.97%
Pendle
Lab 35.75% Con 32.34% LD 23.27%
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Bangs head against brick wall Neither the Cameroons nor I are blind or in denial about anything. It is those who think there's some magic wand which can be waved to solve the problem who are in denial.MaxPB said:
The fact that the Cameroons are absolutely and utterly blind to the EU immigration issue and keep talking about net non-EU migration shows that they are completely missing the point and why UKIP are doing so well.
You remain in denial and watch the Cons lose the next election to Labour while UKIP splits the right wing vote.
We (i.e the UK) are stuffed by past idiotic decisions, mostly but not exclusively taken by Blair and Brown. We have to start from the reality of where we are, not some alternate reality where Maastrict and Lisbon were never ratified.
OK, so let's assume a series of impossible obstacles can magically be removed, We need to assume (a) that Cameron magically gets a retrospective 2010 majority, and (b) that he calls an In/Out referendum which somehow manages to produce an Out result, and (c) that somehow, having achieved two impossible things, we then somehow miraculously manage to negotiate staying in the EEA without conforming to its rules. Or leave the EEA - but anyone who thinks an In/Out referendum can be won without a commitment to stay in in the EEA is far into La-La land.
As the SNP are finding, when push comes to shove, voters stay with nurse. They want comfort blankets.
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The question is, have they planned for it? They need to ensure that new councillors are well supported with advice, starting with don't be controversial - be competent or be quiet. The next advice would be to report back on the issues they find are potential pegs to hang a policy on, and get the party working on agreed lines. They can't afford to take a Lib Dem attitude of pretending to be everything to everyone.currystar said:As I said earlier over the next 2 years the most important thing for UKIP is how their new councilors perform. They will now be judged as equals to the three "main" parties by the press, and 140 new councilors with little or no party machine to help, will find being a councilor challenging. I am sure that some colorful inexperienced characters have been elected today, a lot I expect didn't expect to win (especially the chap who didn't even go to the count). In the past Farage has only had a few MEPS and a tiny number of councilors to lead and control. That has all changed now and he has become very high profile. Some of his MEPs really let him down in the past and that was out of a very small number. What he doesn't need are a few of his new councilors mucking up. If they perform well then he can rightfully say that they are a serious party delivering for their constituents. If the press (who will be watching much more closely now) get their teeth into a number of UKIP councilors not performing as a councilor should then it will put Farage in a very difficult position. I don't think going to a pub and smiling will then work. I think Nick P mentioned earlier a previous UKIP councilor who had never even voted at a council meeting. I am sure that local issues are not the first thing on the mind of a typical UKIP councilor. You cannot withdraw from the EU or reduce immigration at a local level. It will be interesting.
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@smithersjones2013
Hmmmmm all parties have a 'very small number' of MEP's. DIdn't the Tories have an MEP named Den Dover for example?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Den_Dover
currystar penned the original post, sj.
In agreeing with him, I don't mean to infer that only UKIP will have rogue representatives just that their relative inexperience and location on the political spectrum combined with greater external scrutiny will lead to higher risks.0 -
Is the BBC going to be extremely partisan against UKIP?
Yes.
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JGForsyth Just read David Davis’s Telegraph piece. It is quite remarkable how much class tension there is in today’s Conservative parliamentary party.
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At least Ilford North is still Tory, unlike Ilford South!samonipad said:
Is Wanstead so different from Ilford or Rommo??!Peter_the_Punter said:
Why don't you come and join us in leafy Wanstead, Sam? It's one of the UK's 10 nicest places to live:sam said:
What is this???! We live in the worst areas in England!Sunil_Prasannan said:
He needs to grow a pair to implement all thatTykejohnno said:Three things Cameron can do that will bring voters back to him (It would mean the end of the coalition ;-) )
1 - Abu Qatada on a plain to Jordan 2 - put emergency EU powers on no open borders with Romania/Bulgaria 3 - bring forward the EU referendum to a earlier date.
Go nuclear cammers ;-)
http://www.ehow.co.uk/slideshow_12237376_worst-uk-cities-towns-live.html?utm_source=outbrain&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=outbrain
http://www.guardian-series.co.uk/news/10312001.Wanstead__one_of_best_places_to_live_/
Honest!
I actually live in Upminster don't you know?
Or Hupminister as tube drivers like to call it
Can't sign in on my iPad so used different account
Wanstead is OK, could so easily have been ruined by the new A12, but at least that was built in a tunnel under the Green.0 -
Chuckle-Umunna-Vision on Newsnight 0
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So CCHQ's best person to put forward the Conservatives case on Newsnight is that old plodder Bob Neill on Newsnight. A man so laid back he almost lost his by election in a safe seat....0
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iainmartin1 .@DanHannanMEP Should @Nigel_Farage allow Clegg into the general election leaders' debates?
lol0 -
Former Labour MP Brian Jenkins won by 20 votes in Watling North (Staffordshire).
His (former) wife Joan Jenkins won the Wilnecote by-election by 17 votes.0 -
I wouldn't hold your breath LD. Roger's whole modus operandi is to make false and unsupportable statements and then ignore those who point out he has misrepresented the facts in the hope that people will remember the original lie but not the rebuttals.Lewis_Duckworth said:
Your report is an inaccurate travesty. Nick Robinson, who seemed to be particularly fired up anti-UKIP, did not say this. Please correct it.0 -
Well its depends on your view but whilst the Telegraph was luxuriating in Duckhouses, Moats, Glitter loos and Trouser presses there were far more serious considerations (like the systematic abuse of the expenses system by the Labour Government) which the Telegraph decided was secondary and unimportant. As a result of which rather than seeing the overall cost of the expenses budget shrink instead we now have an even more costly (particularly with the creation of a specifically created 'Independent' Quango), less accountable and in some ways more opaque expenses system.Mick_Pork said:
It happily chipped in. Not entirely sure the expenses scandal is a good example of bad newspaper practice. It was a massive scoop and once it got running there was no shortage of papers using it (Red Top and broadsheet) since it absolutely played in to the existing perception and dissatisfaction about MPs and the main parties. Your point about Red Tops and the Telegraph is however 100% correct. The story WAS offered to the Red Tops yet they failed to see just how huge a story it potentially was. Big mistake.smithersjones2013 said:
Well that proves your point because I really hadn't appreciated the Telegraph's leading role but there again after the disgraceful and salacious way they handled the expenses scandal its of no surprise. These days they are just as base as the Red Tops.
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Farage tonight suggested to Schapps Umunna and Brake tht they agreed to leader debates before next years euro elections... Canny, how can they deny ukip that?0
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Poor Chuka thinks that Labour won Northamptonshire.0
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Tonight we have also had the usual Lib Dem spin from the party of the black knight, "its only a scratch" they say as they lose another 26.1% of the seats they were defending. They also indicate that the Conservatives have suffered more by losing 23.1%. Maths is not their strong point. The other claim is that the Lib Dems are doing much better in their strong holds. Such as Eastleigh where they lost 1/3 of their county councillors.... A party in denial.0
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Chuck not-to-be-compared-to-Obama** Ummuna, thinks Northamptonshire is a Labour gain ....
** Not by lazy journalists responding to a Wikipedia entry from a computer at Chuck's workplace.0 -
KirstyBuchanan4 Chuka Umunna claims on Newsnight that Labour has "absolutely" got back support in the south - then talks about Sherwood, in Nottinghamshire.
Don't you just love chuka lol
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Has he got a big....Sunil_Prasannan said:Chuckle-Umunna-Vision on Newsnight
watch?
http://order-order.com/2013/05/01/chuka-and-his-comedy-over-sized-watches/
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He has done this twice recently to me (Sam) the guy is unreal. He doesn't read any link and then passes a ridiculously judgemental left wing comment on what he thought it wasRichard_Tyndall said:
I wouldn't hold your breath LD. Roger's whole modus operandi is to make false and unsupportable statements and then ignore those who point out he has misrepresented the facts in the hope that people will remember the original lie but not the rebuttals.Lewis_Duckworth said:
Your report is an inaccurate travesty. Nick Robinson, who seemed to be particularly fired up anti-UKIP, did not say this. Please correct it.0 -
British politics over the next two years is going to be about just one thing: whether Farage gets a place in the 2015 leaders' debate.
Cameron, Miliband and Clegg are absolutely determined that it won't happen because they rightly suspect that Farage might come across better than they will.0 -
Banging on about Europe. The master strategy continues unabated.
Chris Deerin @chrisdeerin
To kill off Ukip, David Cameron should hold an EU referendum in this parliament - Charles Moore in tmrw's @Telegraph http://soa.li/yjjd88L0 -
Tim - Some grammars eg in Wales took the top 45%, about the same as now do A Level and go to university0
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They did well in Ramsey. Re-elected with an increased majority.itdoesntaddup said:
The question is, have they planned for it? They need to ensure that new councillors are well supported with advice, starting with don't be controversial - be competent or be quiet. The next advice would be to report back on the issues they find are potential pegs to hang a policy on, and get the party working on agreed lines. They can't afford to take a Lib Dem attitude of pretending to be everything to everyone.currystar said:As I said earlier over the next 2 years the most important thing for UKIP is how their new councilors perform. They will now be judged as equals to the three "main" parties by the press, and 140 new councilors with little or no party machine to help, will find being a councilor challenging. I am sure that some colorful inexperienced characters have been elected today, a lot I expect didn't expect to win (especially the chap who didn't even go to the count). In the past Farage has only had a few MEPS and a tiny number of councilors to lead and control. That has all changed now and he has become very high profile. Some of his MEPs really let him down in the past and that was out of a very small number. What he doesn't need are a few of his new councilors mucking up. If they perform well then he can rightfully say that they are a serious party delivering for their constituents. If the press (who will be watching much more closely now) get their teeth into a number of UKIP councilors not performing as a councilor should then it will put Farage in a very difficult position. I don't think going to a pub and smiling will then work. I think Nick P mentioned earlier a previous UKIP councilor who had never even voted at a council meeting. I am sure that local issues are not the first thing on the mind of a typical UKIP councilor. You cannot withdraw from the EU or reduce immigration at a local level. It will be interesting.
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/330345010522374146
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Is that where Neighbours become good friends?anotherDave said:
They did well in Ramsey. Re-elected with an increased majority.itdoesntaddup said:
The question is, have they planned for it? They need to ensure that new councillors are well supported with advice, starting with don't be controversial - be competent or be quiet. The next advice would be to report back on the issues they find are potential pegs to hang a policy on, and get the party working on agreed lines. They can't afford to take a Lib Dem attitude of pretending to be everything to everyone.currystar said:As I said earlier over the next 2 years the most important thing for UKIP is how their new councilors perform. They will now be judged as equals to the three "main" parties by the press, and 140 new councilors with little or no party machine to help, will find being a councilor challenging. I am sure that some colorful inexperienced characters have been elected today, a lot I expect didn't expect to win (especially the chap who didn't even go to the count). In the past Farage has only had a few MEPS and a tiny number of councilors to lead and control. That has all changed now and he has become very high profile. Some of his MEPs really let him down in the past and that was out of a very small number. What he doesn't need are a few of his new councilors mucking up. If they perform well then he can rightfully say that they are a serious party delivering for their constituents. If the press (who will be watching much more closely now) get their teeth into a number of UKIP councilors not performing as a councilor should then it will put Farage in a very difficult position. I don't think going to a pub and smiling will then work. I think Nick P mentioned earlier a previous UKIP councilor who had never even voted at a council meeting. I am sure that local issues are not the first thing on the mind of a typical UKIP councilor. You cannot withdraw from the EU or reduce immigration at a local level. It will be interesting.
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/3303450105223741460 -
Pretty biased structure to the Newsnight piece. Even the seating arrangement seemed designed to diminish Diane James.0
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:-)itdoesntaddup said:
Is that where Neighbours become good friends?anotherDave said:
They did well in Ramsey. Re-elected with an increased majority.itdoesntaddup said:
The question is, have they planned for it? They need to ensure that new councillors are well supported with advice, starting with don't be controversial - be competent or be quiet. The next advice would be to report back on the issues they find are potential pegs to hang a policy on, and get the party working on agreed lines. They can't afford to take a Lib Dem attitude of pretending to be everything to everyone.currystar said:As I said earlier over the next 2 years the most important thing for UKIP is how their new councilors perform. They will now be judged as equals to the three "main" parties by the press, and 140 new councilors with little or no party machine to help, will find being a councilor challenging. I am sure that some colorful inexperienced characters have been elected today, a lot I expect didn't expect to win (especially the chap who didn't even go to the count). In the past Farage has only had a few MEPS and a tiny number of councilors to lead and control. That has all changed now and he has become very high profile. Some of his MEPs really let him down in the past and that was out of a very small number. What he doesn't need are a few of his new councilors mucking up. If they perform well then he can rightfully say that they are a serious party delivering for their constituents. If the press (who will be watching much more closely now) get their teeth into a number of UKIP councilors not performing as a councilor should then it will put Farage in a very difficult position. I don't think going to a pub and smiling will then work. I think Nick P mentioned earlier a previous UKIP councilor who had never even voted at a council meeting. I am sure that local issues are not the first thing on the mind of a typical UKIP councilor. You cannot withdraw from the EU or reduce immigration at a local level. It will be interesting.
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/330345010522374146
+3 internet points.
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The recommendation is action, not talk.Mick_Pork said:Banging on about Europe. The master strategy continues unabated.
Chris Deerin @chrisdeerin
To kill off Ukip, David Cameron should hold an EU referendum in this parliament - Charles Moore in tmrw's @Telegraph http://soa.li/yjjd88L
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Yes, hats off to the Labour media manipulators. They've done brilliantly well bringing class divisiveness - which had more or less died out in the UK - back as a key force. Admittedly the initial attempts at Crewe and Nantwich were so crude that they were just laughed off, but Labour didn't give up, they kept plugging away. It's not nice, and it's certainly disastrous for the country, but I guess that's politics.tim said:@JGForsyth: Just read David Davis’s Telegraph piece. It is quite remarkable how much class tension there is in today’s Conservative parliamentary party..
What's less understandable is why Conservatives join in. Utter madness.0 -
West Lancashire constituency
Lab 48.9 Con 32.8 UKIP 13.4 (missing 2 divisions out of 7) Green 4.1 (5 divisions)
A ward should be excluded but it's in a division with 3 other wards which are in this constituency. It's a small ward anyway, probably take 0.something away from Con judging by the 2011-12 result (a Con lead of 100-200 votes)0 -
Not really the case. Had the Telegraph the records available to them they would indeed have had something that would make the expenses scandal look like a storm in a teacup. The most ironic thing about the expenses scandal was just how lucky an escape it was for MPs since those expenses revealed were the ones after there had been a tightening of the system. Before that it really was a free for all and a defacto bank for MPs to abuse in the most outrageous ways imaginable. Ways that would have put most of what was revealed in the shade. So yes, there was an untold story but the Telegraph only had a certain timeline of data to work with.smithersjones2013 said:Well its depends on your view but whilst the Telegraph was luxuriating in Duckhouses, Moats, Glitter loos and Trouser presses there were far more serious considerations (like the systematic abuse of the expenses system by the Labour Government) which the Telegraph decided was secondary and unimportant.
Agree. IPSA is a joke and it is only a matter of time before we get another scandal. They have learned nothing except to be slightly more careful in their creative accounting and less forthcoming to the public.smithersjones2013 said:As a result of which rather than seeing the overall cost of the expenses budget shrink instead we now have an even more costly (particularly with the creation of a specifically created 'Independent' Quango), less accountable and in some ways more opaque expenses system.
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@RichardNabavi GuidoFawkes @JGForsyth Was the same under Thatcher. Posh wets full of noblesse obilge, middle class Thatcherites who could connect with electorate.
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AveryLP said:
Perhaps but I'm not sure 'experience' is necessarily of any use if you lack common sense to go with it. I mean your Government's Deputy Prime Minister was a drunken yob who thought it cool to burn down a prize collection of cacti when he was young and the Shadow Chancellor .used to like to dress up in questionable costumes for parties (and of course he's not the only one). Of course then there are those who belong to drinking clubs which have a reputation for wrecking restaraunts and the Prime Minister himself has done many things which have caused offence'.smithersjones2013 said:
currystar penned the original post, sj.AveryLP said:
Hmmmmm all parties have a 'very small number' of MEP's. DIdn't the Tories have an MEP named Den Dover for example?currystar said:Some of his MEPs really let him down in the past and that was out of a very small number.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Den_Dover
In agreeing with him, I don't mean to infer that only UKIP will have rogue representatives just that their relative inexperience and location on the political spectrum combined with greater external scrutiny will lead to higher risks.
This is the thing the hatchet job thing has been done to death and the hysteria with which the Westminster Freakshow greets every new revelation is increasingly wearing so unless such revelations have some real potency and are not flippant then its probably not worth bothering. Not only that but UKIP are the mirror image of the politically crass Westminster Freakshow so many of the things which would create horror and disgust with the guardianista liberal elite of Islington and Notting Hill would actually possibly be considered a badge of honour. Westminster crass pedantry could as easily strengthen UKIP as it could expose their shortfalls.0 -
I noticed that many former MPs elected to the CCs were in their 60s and some even 70s. A spare time for retired men/women?AndyJS said:Former Labour MP Brian Jenkins won by 20 votes in Watling North (Staffordshire).
His (former) wife Joan Jenkins won the Wilnecote by-election by 17 votes.
I guess having a proper (not flexible) job may not work well with the council's workload
A research on the type of applicants for Cllr role in major parties could be interesting. How many of them are not retired-semiretired people or young hopefuls who want to use as a springboard for something higher (that actually usually happens in London Councils)....0 -
Just watching Farage, fag and a pint, saying what he thinks... the others must look on with envy. 'There's a bloke, being himself, winning votes. Must be nice.'0
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Ted Heath was from an almost identical social background to Margaret Thatcher.Tykejohnno said:@RichardNabavi GuidoFawkes @JGForsyth Was the same under Thatcher. Posh wets full of noblesse obilge, middle class Thatcherites who could connect with electorate.
Were they equally capable of connecting with the electorate?
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