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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight Ed Miliband is a step closer to Downing Street
The existing electoral advantages that LAB has are magnified in a 4 party system. Ukip’s rise lowers the bar for EdM twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
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Politico Daily @Politico_Daily
after all results councillors: Con 1116 Lab 538 LD 353 UKIP 147 Grn 22 RA 12 MK 4 Lib 2 BNP 0 Ind 135 #Vote2013
Prepare for a whine-athon or Squirrel!!
LOL ;^ )
Until a few weeks ago I concurred with the conventional wisdom that Labour were likely to win because of the electoral system - not anymore.
(I would also make out like a bandit if she becomes party leader!)
“After a troubled month, which saw the first hints of a Tory recovery since the 2012 Budget, Ed Miliband needed a strong set of results to give him some political breathing space. But while far from disastrous, his party’s performance will only revive the question: why isn’t Labour doing better? Its main centre-left challenger is locked in government with a right-wing Conservative Party, the economy has barely grown since 2010 and the Tory brand has been comprehensively retoxified. Yet Labour still appears incapable of generating popular enthusiasm among those who should be embracing it. Rather than assuaging Miliband’s malaise, today’s results will only deepen it.”... http://order-order.com/2013/05/03/reality-dawns-for-eds-friends/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+guidofawkes+(Guy+Fawkes'+blog+of+parliamentary+plots,+rumours+and+conspiracy)
Excuse my political naivety, but this is the first I've heard of councillors getting allowances. I understand expenses, but allowances? How generous are they?
And why should council tax payers be subsidising political parties?
Year on year changes to the vote share, Con -6, Lab -9, Lib -2. Labour are suffering as much as the Tories from UKIP's rise. I don't think you have it right Mike.
As for this making Labour's job easier or harder, we have no way of knowing that or even making an educated guess this far out. UKIP could have some loonybin councillors shich damage the party's reputation, or they could be competent in local government and boosted by the euro-elections.
If the Coalition proves more competent and in touch and Labour remains as is then a strong UKIP could become a default repository for those who would otherwise vote Labour. The reverse is also possible.
Most importantly, the election is still two years away, and a lot can change in that time. When people are voting in a General Election their behaviour could and probably will be significantly different.
I am certain you will agree with me that Ed is magnificently charismatic and eloquent. He is an inspiring and refreshing standard bearer for the social democratic tradition in our great nation. Yes, indeed: One Nation. Nay, his performance at Conference last year must surely have been amongst the greatest (if not the greatest) ever given by a leader of the Labour Party, or indeed of any party leader! Such magnificence, such poise, such alacrity. Wow! And his wonderful repertoire of jokes would put even Harry Hill to shame!
He is articulate, passionate, an accomplished orator, and I think a real progressive alternative to the smarmy posh boy Cameron.
I think £12,000 would be a ball park figure, but with a lot of variation. They're usually public so if you google you should be able to find a particular one.
I'm not sure that classifying UKIP supporters as old and under-educated is a very sensible label.
Banging on about Europe is only certain to make things worse yet watch and see how many tory MPs think that's a great idea now.
This result makes the coming tory split over Europe that much more tangible and inevitable.
It's going to happen whether it's before 2015 or after it.
I also suggested that a post-referendum SNP might well be needing a good reason to persuade its voters to return MPs to Westminster. A Cameron-Salmond (Sturgeon) deal on devo max with Cameron happy to leave government of the Scots by the SNP for the Scots might be just what is needed.
Don't let Carlotta lead you astray again, James. Pay due attention to the cousin of Seth.
Re: UKIP. If I had known a result like this would have the three main parties so flummoxed, I would have been voting UKIP years ago. I fear though that UKIP will be soon meeting the forces of hell, unless Milliband and Clegg make the foolish judgement that my enemies enemy...
A deal with the Tories on Devo Max would be splendid. I would be all in favour of it. The snag is that the Tories aren't remotely interested in such a deal.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/ukip-wins-hearts-not-minds-8603066.html
The voters don't like or rate rEd - a la Kinnock - I wouldn't put stolen monopoly money on rEd becoming PM.
TheUKIPWales
@ukipwales
Labour girl in the audience who tore into Diane James on Question Time comes third in Kent. UKIP win the seat.
AndyJS - That's the sort of article that would make me want to join UKIP, find that blokes Shoreditch regular, go round there wearing a tweed jacket and talk loudly about "bloody Bulgarians".
Just for the giggles.
PS If Paul Maggs is about, I owe him a tenner (Dirty Dicks) for his comprehensive demolition of my kipper forecasts.
I'm rather relieved at the outcome: it could have been an awfully lot worse, and there's still all to play for in 2015.
Kent, Birchington & Villages:
UKIP 2,156 (47%)
Con 1,494 (32%)
Lab 649 (14%)
LD 315 (7%)
http://politicalscrapbook.net/2013/03/question-time-audience-member-slams-ukip-on-immigration-stats/
'On these figures the Tories take no Lib Dem seats due to the kipper surge in the south'
Something for Labour to cling onto after such a poor performance.
http://www.economist.com/node/12270990
Rallings & Thrasher: CON -310, LAB+350, LD-130, UKIP+40
My own prediction: CON -330, LAB + 325, LD -130, UKIP +60
Result: CON-335, LAB+291, LD-124, UKIP+139.
It certainly doesn't look like UKIP's rise handed as many seats over to Labour (or, if it did, Labour won many seats for themselves) as I expected.
I can only speak for myself, but I'm not worried. As that famous Panelbase poll showed, if Scottish voters assume that the Tories are going to win the next election, then Yes jumps into the lead in the independence referendum.
I'm not entirely sure what has gone wrong for Labour over the last few weeks, but the direction of travel is unmistakable, and this result is even worse for them than I anticipated.
Lab -1%
Con -12%
UKIP +20%
LD -10%
Bloody hell that News at Six was like a ppb for UKIP - there was even a Lithuanian guy saying there's too many foreigners in Britain!!!
Unbelievable complacency.
We now know that kind of panic idiocy just won't cut it and is merely a variation on Cammie calling the kippers fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists. That the Mirror joined in won't fool anyone as to where the main co-ordinated attacks came from. Shapps is looking sheepish today for a reason.
So 147 seats and 139 gains. Not bad for us kippers.
£5 and kisses winging it's way to PtP.
I remember a cartoon of the 1992 US presidential election - it had Bush, Clinton and Perot all standing on the third place podium.
Of course Bush I, Clinton and Perot were political titans compared to Cameron, Clegg and Miliband.
I've switched it off.
Louise Mensch is a political titan compared to Ross Perot.
Here in Shropshire, there was remarkably little change. A minor drift from the Tories to both Lab and LD in Shrewsbury, and a few Indies doing well at all points of the compass, but otherwise no real change. Most amazing thing for me was that in a decent sized market town - Whitchurch, with three seats across two divisions, the Tories were unopposed.
Thus, the question is: will the near-inevitable drop-back from yesterday's UKIP vote share benefit one of the other parties more than another? To the extent that the UKIP vote share came mainly from grumbling Tories, then other things being equal, the drop back would benefit the Tories more compared with yesterday's projected national vote share.
However, the interesting question to me is whether other things are likely to be equal. Will former Labour, BNP, LibDem and NOTA protest voters of yesterday behave differently to former Conservative protest voters of yesterday, or will they all tend to go home to their respective 2010 behaviour in similar proportions ?
Dunno.
But that is probably the key to the next election.
29% during a depression with the other two main parties in government and a pretty useless government at that.
EdM should still become PM in 2015 because Cameron and Clegg are even more politically useless than he is.
But Labour piling up votes in the urban areas is a similar dead end to the Conservatives piling up votes in rural areas in 2005.
Not many opportunities for Labour gains in Liverpool, Newcastle, Sheffield and East London is there.
Easy to understand,not exactly astrophysics.
What's difficult to understand is mid term poll,cuts,austerity,the perfect storm for an opposition and Labour poll so badly.
Two things EVERYONE on this board can be glad off
1) The BNP have been hammered today. Really really hammered. They could well fold as a party.
2) Dan Hodges is on record as saying he will run down Whitehall naked if UKIP poll 6% at the next general election. Unlucky Dan!
If down the line you have an acceptable Tory leader then perhaps some sort of deal can be done but I can't see that happening this side of 2015 and perhaps not until the 2020's.
The SNP have perhaps the most useless Conservative, Labour and LibDems in history as opponents.
If you don't win your independence vote in 2014 I'm sure you would by 2020 if only to get away from the shambles which UK politics and government is going to be for the rest of the decade.
UKIP certainly matter when it comes to saving the Lib Dems. On the projections you hardly lose any seats - if any - in the south.
Amazingly FPTP is about to save the Lib Dems!!!
LOL
If you say so.
Boris is also the primary reason he won the London Mayorality, not Crosby.
What should worry the elite more is not which party will benefit, but that these protest votes are overwhelmingly confined to the young, old and working class. The very people all major parties aspire to win over. And the protest voters don't even care if they are voting in protest for poshos (UKIP), bare-faced liars (libdems c.2010) or utter racists (BNP c.2009.)
As they say, the trend is your friend.
"I won an Oscar for getting my kit off. You lost a bet!"
If the general election were next week then we would likely have Miliband in Downing Street (partly because of Ukip), but the election campaign doesn't start for another 18 months and although today's results are reasonably good for Labour in the areas that matter, mid term protest towards Labour (such as it is) does not mean Miliband will get their votes when it comes to the crunch.
This can be seen to be borne out in today's results - Ukip for instance knocked 4,600 votes off Labour's majority in South Shields despite the collapse of the Conservatives in the by-election. While Ukip's vote share in many strongly Conservative areas will have cost the Tories seats to other parties including Labour, in the areas where UKIP has done their best they have taken seats that might otherwise have gone to Labour.
Overall, then, Labour have benefited from UKIP's success, but may be starting to get slightly uncomfortable that UKIP is becoming a little bit too successful and starting to threaten their own seats as well."
http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2013/05/03/local-elections-2013-as-it-happens
Not really as you have to go back 20 years for the last time other than 2009 when these weren't held on a general election day.
Tamworth borough result:
Lab 6083
Con 5622
UKIP 2275
Others 813
LD 533
Green 405
The results in the two rural divisions were as follows:
Con: 2798 (48.3%)
UKIP: 1729 (29.9%)
Lab: 1006 (17.4%)
LD: 259 (4.5%)
Total: 5792
Adding these votes to the Tamworth borough result:
Con: 8420 (39.1%)
Lab: 7089 (32.9%)
UKIP: 4004 (18.6%)
LD: 792 (3.7%)
Others: 1218 (5.7%)
Total: 21523
Changes since 2010 general election:
Con: -6.7%
Lab: +0.2%
UKIP: +13.7%
LD: -12.5%
Others: +5.2%
Swing, Con to Lab: 3.5%
Favs must be Folkestone, Yarmouth, Boston & Skeg? All include fading coastal resort towns. Thanet another possibility?
When did the opposition last do better at a GE than they had done in mid term?
Incidentally the BBC National Share is 29/25, not 29/24.
You just have to see him as a blogging version of Lembit Opik. Then everything falls into place.
Nor do you know whether this might be the start of a bandwagon that takes UKIP forward to even greater successes in national votes.
What you do seem to know is very little about what happened if you can describe UKIP support on at least three times in one post merely as 'protest'. Wake up Richard et. al.
2012 Labour 39%
2012 Labour 29%
That ain't 'sealing the deal' is it.
Piling up votes in safe areas is not what Labour needs.
So whose for the chop first ?
Osborne ?
Balls ?
Clegg ?
"Nigel Farage: a man I would gladly have a pint with
The Ukip leader makes his opponents look as if they take things far too seriously. The normal rulebook does not apply":
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/03/nigel-farage-superpower-politics-lightly
If they see the economy, and far more importantly their own wages pick up their view of life will change and so will their votes. It is getting very tight to do this before the election because perception here follows reality at a distance but there is still a chance. They also need to be scared silly about what Labour would do to them the next time.
Labour needs to find one or two charismatic attack dogs and get them into the media spotlight (and I don't mean Ed Balls!). If nothing else, this election says that people are sick of bland platitude-spouting drones of all colours. And Labour has these in spades.
"Consider this fact. Only one party managed to clear the 20% threshold in both the South Shields byelection last night and the parliamentary contest in Eastleigh in February. That was not Labour, which safely won in the former last night, after it had trailed in fourth in the latter. It certainly was not the Tories, who came third in both places. And it emphatically was not the Liberal Democrats who managed to retain Eastleigh, but won a miserable 352 votes – half those of the BNP – to come seventh in South Shields.
Only Ukip performed strongly in both these seats, one in the heart of traditionally Tory southern England, the other in a northern Labour stronghold – claiming nearly 28% in the first and 24% in the second.
To have such wide geographic appeal, taking on both government and opposition, is a feat rarely achieved by a third party, let alone a fourth."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/03/local-elections-results-panel-verdict
Firstly because its not just Cameron who's the problem - its Cameron and all his chums. You'd need to clear out Osborne, Letwin, Maude, Hunt and the rest. Compare with 1990 when the problem was specifically Thatcher.
Secondly because its important that the Cameroons 'own' the 2015 election defeat. After today we can be sure its not going to be a Labour landslide so the Conservatives will have the chance to quickly recover once the chumocracy has been dealt with and while the Eds flounder in government.
A new leader would be untainted by this failure, and a heavyweight Eurosceptic would be enough to find a common thread with UKIP/Farage. That will be impossible for Cameron to do, Farage and many UKIP members really do despise Cameron, one only needs to read the Telegraph comments section to witness this.
'Very solid positive set of results for Labour making the gains where it matters.'
Your having a laugh? Labour didn't even reach the Railings & Thatcher forecast.
I think it will really kick off post Euros and Scots poll next year. The Tories may (desperately?) want a deal with UKIP though if the Scots did vote to go that 's Ed's electoral advantage largely gone south in one fell swoop.
Time for a reflective Summer all round.
I've said at least twice here that EdM will become prime minster in 2015.
But that doesn't stop today being a dismal performance by Labour.
Still you can only beat what you're up against and what Labour are up against is even worse than they are.
But that doesn't alter the fact that Labour have done significantly worse than in 2005 at the point in the electoral cycle which should be most advantageous for them.
Personally I'm looking forward to the government of the Eds - it will combine the worst bits of the Brown and Cameron governments.
It will be very entertaining watching and things need to reach the bottom before they can look up.
It is time the tories found out who speaks normal English and get them out front and central. Pickles was doing a good job on the BBC today.
Farage sticking the boot right into Cammie with quite some glee. He's earned it.