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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight Ed Miliband is a step closer to Downing Street

SystemSystem Posts: 11,916
edited May 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight Ed Miliband is a step closer to Downing Street

The existing electoral advantages that LAB has are magnified in a 4 party system. Ukip’s rise lowers the bar for EdM twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2013
    First?

    Politico Daily @Politico_Daily
    after all results councillors: Con 1116 Lab 538 LD 353 UKIP 147 Grn 22 RA 12 MK 4 Lib 2 BNP 0 Ind 135 #Vote2013
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    This won't please the tea party tories.

    Prepare for a whine-athon or Squirrel!!

    LOL ;^ )
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,782
    The Tories need a leader who can form an electoral pact with UKIP so they stand down in Lib/Con and Lab/Con marginals and an instruction for their supporters to vote Tory in these seats to ensure they get an EU referendum. I don't think they would sign such a deal with Cameron in charge of the Tories, and without such a deal the party may as well write off 2015 and 2020 while right wing voters learn how to vote tactically.
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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    I disagree, Mike. A four-point lead over the Tories is a pathetic position for Labour at this stage of the electoral cycle. Even if UKIP's vote doesn't collapse completely, it's likely to drop somewhat in a general election with the Tories being the main beneficiaries, which means it could even be argued that the underlying position at the moment is a small Tory lead.

    Until a few weeks ago I concurred with the conventional wisdom that Labour were likely to win because of the electoral system - not anymore.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,782
    Further to my comment, I think Priti Patel would be a good leadership candidate for this, she is already a heavy Eurosceptic and she neutralises the whole "racist Tories" idea the left love to use.

    (I would also make out like a bandit if she becomes party leader!)
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    "As the extent of Labour’s thoroughly underwhelming day becomes clear, Ed’s friends are turning on him. George Eaton at the Staggers encapsulates the feeling:

    “After a troubled month, which saw the first hints of a Tory recovery since the 2012 Budget, Ed Miliband needed a strong set of results to give him some political breathing space. But while far from disastrous, his party’s performance will only revive the question: why isn’t Labour doing better? Its main centre-left challenger is locked in government with a right-wing Conservative Party, the economy has barely grown since 2010 and the Tory brand has been comprehensively retoxified. Yet Labour still appears incapable of generating popular enthusiasm among those who should be embracing it. Rather than assuaging Miliband’s malaise, today’s results will only deepen it.”... http://order-order.com/2013/05/03/reality-dawns-for-eds-friends/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+guidofawkes+(Guy+Fawkes'+blog+of+parliamentary+plots,+rumours+and+conspiracy)
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2013
    "It also, through the generous allowances that councillors now receive, produces an assured and regular income source."

    Excuse my political naivety, but this is the first I've heard of councillors getting allowances. I understand expenses, but allowances? How generous are they?

    And why should council tax payers be subsidising political parties?
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,299
    Please can some one post a link on here, showing where I can quickly find total votes cast for the parties in the local elections?
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    MontyMonty Posts: 346
    Hilarious. FPTP is obviously unfit for more than 2 parties and perverse when you get to 4 or more. No way are the Tories going to want to change it though. not until they've lost a few more general elections at least. Should have gone for AV.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,782
    http://www.markpack.org.uk/40907/labour-are-the-big-losers-from-ukips-surge/

    Year on year changes to the vote share, Con -6, Lab -9, Lib -2. Labour are suffering as much as the Tories from UKIP's rise. I don't think you have it right Mike.
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    Incidentally I've just seen Little Ed talking and he seems to have now taken on the some of the expressional characteristics of Reggie Perrin. Can anyone seriously ever imagine him as Prime Minister standing next to Obama's or his successor. it would be surreal.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    29% is an incredibly low share for the main opposition in mid-term. Points to a hung parliament IMO.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,309
    I partly agree with Mr. Kelly. UKIP's rise is only possible because Labour, despite being the sole nationwide opposition party, is just not enthusing or even attracting all that many voters.

    As for this making Labour's job easier or harder, we have no way of knowing that or even making an educated guess this far out. UKIP could have some loonybin councillors shich damage the party's reputation, or they could be competent in local government and boosted by the euro-elections.

    If the Coalition proves more competent and in touch and Labour remains as is then a strong UKIP could become a default repository for those who would otherwise vote Labour. The reverse is also possible.

    Most importantly, the election is still two years away, and a lot can change in that time. When people are voting in a General Election their behaviour could and probably will be significantly different.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    Plato said:

    First?

    Politico Daily @Politico_Daily
    after all results councillors: Con 1116 Lab 538 LD 353 UKIP 147 Grn 22 RA 12 MK 4 Lib 2 BNP 0 Ind 135 #Vote2013

    147 Maximum Break!
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    Why do we still think Ed is crap? Ed is most definitely not crap! He is merely misunderstood, and I put it to you that is the chief reason why he is so maligned and ridiculed by the evil right-wing media.

    I am certain you will agree with me that Ed is magnificently charismatic and eloquent. He is an inspiring and refreshing standard bearer for the social democratic tradition in our great nation. Yes, indeed: One Nation. Nay, his performance at Conference last year must surely have been amongst the greatest (if not the greatest) ever given by a leader of the Labour Party, or indeed of any party leader! Such magnificence, such poise, such alacrity. Wow! And his wonderful repertoire of jokes would put even Harry Hill to shame!

    He is articulate, passionate, an accomplished orator, and I think a real progressive alternative to the smarmy posh boy Cameron.

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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited May 2013
    My point is that it doesn't matter. It's the margin between LAB and CON that's all important and here LAB has inbuilt advantages.
    MaxPB said:

    http://www.markpack.org.uk/40907/labour-are-the-big-losers-from-ukips-surge/

    Year on year changes to the vote share, Con -6, Lab -9, Lib -2. Labour are suffering as much as the Tories from UKIP's rise. I don't think you have it right Mike.

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    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Pong said:

    "It also, through the generous allowances that councillors now receive, produces an assured and regular income source."

    Excuse my political naivety, but this is the first I've heard of councillors getting allowances. I understand expenses, but allowances? How generous are they?

    And why should council tax payers be subsidising political parties?

    They're paying councillors essentially, the allowances vary depending on the area, and moreso based on whether they're a cabinet member etc.

    I think £12,000 would be a ball park figure, but with a lot of variation. They're usually public so if you google you should be able to find a particular one.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,299
    Re age and levels of education, how many in the over 60s age group actually had a real opportunity to have a sixth form or tertiary education?

    I'm not sure that classifying UKIP supporters as old and under-educated is a very sensible label.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013

    I disagree, Mike. A four-point lead over the Tories is a pathetic position for Labour at this stage of the electoral cycle.

    Of course it is and of course little Ed is a seriously unimpressive and weak leader. However, the lib dems aren't just less popular than the BNP in South Shields, they also failed miserably to get AV. That means it's still FPTP and there is absolutely no sign of Cammie having the slightest idea of how to deal with the Kippers any more than he did when he called them loonies, fruitcakes and closet racists.

    Banging on about Europe is only certain to make things worse yet watch and see how many tory MPs think that's a great idea now.

    This result makes the coming tory split over Europe that much more tangible and inevitable.
    It's going to happen whether it's before 2015 or after it.

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    The thing is I amgine a true national PR voting system is far less attractive to all three establishment parties now that they face the possibility of having to share it with all those 'clowns, fruitcakes and closets racists'. After all imagine UKIP getting 23%. Thats 150 MP's or thereabouts
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2013

    I disagree, Mike. A four-point lead over the Tories is a pathetic position for Labour at this stage of the electoral cycle. Even if UKIP's vote doesn't collapse completely, it's likely to drop somewhat in a general election with the Tories being the main beneficiaries, which means it could even be argued that the underlying position at the moment is a small Tory lead.

    Until a few weeks ago I concurred with the conventional wisdom that Labour were likely to win because of the electoral system - not anymore.

    I did try to warn you James, but you were too intent on refuting Carlotta to listen.

    I also suggested that a post-referendum SNP might well be needing a good reason to persuade its voters to return MPs to Westminster. A Cameron-Salmond (Sturgeon) deal on devo max with Cameron happy to leave government of the Scots by the SNP for the Scots might be just what is needed.

    Don't let Carlotta lead you astray again, James. Pay due attention to the cousin of Seth.

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    Oh there's a secret politicalbetting.com. Advertising and marketing Mr Smithson are not the evil of Habermas, but a useful means of sharing knowledge.

    Re: UKIP. If I had known a result like this would have the three main parties so flummoxed, I would have been voting UKIP years ago. I fear though that UKIP will be soon meeting the forces of hell, unless Milliband and Clegg make the foolish judgement that my enemies enemy...
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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    Cousin of Seth, all I can do is repeat what I've been saying to you for...what, four years?

    A deal with the Tories on Devo Max would be splendid. I would be all in favour of it. The snag is that the Tories aren't remotely interested in such a deal.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2013
    This is the sort of article by an arrogant metrosexual metropolitan which IMO only serves to increase UKIP's support:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/ukip-wins-hearts-not-minds-8603066.html
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    But it does it work on mobiles
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    In South Shields it looks like the LD vote fell 13% compared with a Tory fall of 10%.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,617
    tim said:

    "Re age and levels of education, how many in the over 60s age group actually had a real opportunity to have a sixth form or tertiary education?"

    Not many due to the grammar school system UKIP advocates

    Yes, because experience counts for little, life teaches us nothing. Much better to have a 21 yr old with a certificate than someone with grey hair.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited May 2013
    Anyone making predictions for 2 years hence after yesterday is a fool.

    The voters don't like or rate rEd - a la Kinnock - I wouldn't put stolen monopoly money on rEd becoming PM.

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    samsam Posts: 727
    Plato said:

    First?

    Politico Daily @Politico_Daily
    after all results councillors: Con 1116 Lab 538 LD 353 UKIP 147 Grn 22 RA 12 MK 4 Lib 2 BNP 0 Ind 135 #Vote2013

    The kippers have gone from 0-147 faster than Ronnie O'Sullivan!

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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Mick_Pork said:

    This won't please the tea party tories.

    Prepare for a whine-athon or Squirrel!!

    LOL ;^ )

    I dont see much whining; just some very worried lefties. It seems that the great British public does not like them or their policies and will vote for anything as an alternative. All three parties need to worry. Mid term looking like a hung parliament with a poor economy and incoherent government s not good for Labour
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Ha


    TheUKIPWales
    @ukipwales
    Labour girl in the audience who tore into Diane James on Question Time comes third in Kent. UKIP win the seat.
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    works a treat. Good Development Mr Smithsons.

    AndyJS - That's the sort of article that would make me want to join UKIP, find that blokes Shoreditch regular, go round there wearing a tweed jacket and talk loudly about "bloody Bulgarians".

    Just for the giggles.
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,248
    edited May 2013
    I thought the BBC projection had the Tories on 25% with the margin of 4% for Labour. Presumably that has a modest impact on the number of seats.

    PS If Paul Maggs is about, I owe him a tenner (Dirty Dicks) for his comprehensive demolition of my kipper forecasts.

    I'm rather relieved at the outcome: it could have been an awfully lot worse, and there's still all to play for in 2015.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013

    Mick_Pork said:

    This won't please the tea party tories.

    Prepare for a whine-athon or Squirrel!!

    LOL ;^ )

    I dont see much whining; just some very worried lefties.
    If you consider Cammie to be a lefty then you'd be right. Many kippers certainly think he is.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Amy Rutland, the Labour supporter who railed against UKIP on Question Time, was heavily defeated in a Kent division:

    Kent, Birchington & Villages:

    UKIP 2,156 (47%)
    Con 1,494 (32%)
    Lab 649 (14%)
    LD 315 (7%)

    http://politicalscrapbook.net/2013/03/question-time-audience-member-slams-ukip-on-immigration-stats/
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Tim

    'On these figures the Tories take no Lib Dem seats due to the kipper surge in the south'

    Something for Labour to cling onto after such a poor performance.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,299
    tim said:

    "Re age and levels of education, how many in the over 60s age group actually had a real opportunity to have a sixth form or tertiary education?"

    Not many due to the grammar school system UKIP advocates

    Must be quite a few in the 60+ bracket who did not benefit from the expansion of univeristies in the 1960s. More will mean worse as Kingley Amis wrote in 1961...

    http://www.economist.com/node/12270990
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    It's difficult to see genuine enthusiasm reflected in the Labour results today. Some success, certainly.

    Rallings & Thrasher: CON -310, LAB+350, LD-130, UKIP+40
    My own prediction: CON -330, LAB + 325, LD -130, UKIP +60
    Result: CON-335, LAB+291, LD-124, UKIP+139.

    It certainly doesn't look like UKIP's rise handed as many seats over to Labour (or, if it did, Labour won many seats for themselves) as I expected.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,701
    MaxPB said:

    The Tories need a leader who can form an electoral pact with UKIP so they stand down in Lib/Con and Lab/Con marginals and an instruction for their supporters to vote Tory in these seats to ensure they get an EU referendum. I don't think they would sign such a deal with Cameron in charge of the Tories, and without such a deal the party may as well write off 2015 and 2020 while right wing voters learn how to vote tactically.

    Surely many have voted Kipper for the simple reason they arent the Tories. Farage owes it to those who have voted for his party to offer a proper alternative and a grubby alliance with the Tories would be poorly received all round.
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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "I dont see much whining; just some very worried lefties"

    I can only speak for myself, but I'm not worried. As that famous Panelbase poll showed, if Scottish voters assume that the Tories are going to win the next election, then Yes jumps into the lead in the independence referendum.

    I'm not entirely sure what has gone wrong for Labour over the last few weeks, but the direction of travel is unmistakable, and this result is even worse for them than I anticipated.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2013
    The changes in share of the vote from the 2010 general election, using the BBC's projection:

    Lab -1%
    Con -12%
    UKIP +20%
    LD -10%
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,520
    I disagree. At this stage in the parliament, the country has had the opportunity to size Miliband up as a potential PM. They're not voting for him. There will be a swing back to the government parties as the election nears. If Labour cannot be more than 4% ahead at this point, Labour will not win. Compare and contrast with Blair in 1995 or Cameron in 2008.
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    RicardohosRicardohos Posts: 258
    Bloody brave of Mike to speak of EdM getting to Downing St. Who's to say UKIP won't now go on to break through the threshold? It's happened in Canada. It could easily happen here. They have lots on their side including Nigel Farage coming across, as SeanT says, as a thoroughly decent ordinary bloke.

    Bloody hell that News at Six was like a ppb for UKIP - there was even a Lithuanian guy saying there's too many foreigners in Britain!!!
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Relying on Ukip to stop the Cons is why Labour will lose.

    Unbelievable complacency.

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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Other big loser from last night was of course Crosby and the tory press with their transparent last minute inept attacks on Farage and the Kippers.

    We now know that kind of panic idiocy just won't cut it and is merely a variation on Cammie calling the kippers fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists. That the Mirror joined in won't fool anyone as to where the main co-ordinated attacks came from. Shapps is looking sheepish today for a reason.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    sam said:

    Plato said:

    First?

    Politico Daily @Politico_Daily
    after all results councillors: Con 1116 Lab 538 LD 353 UKIP 147 Grn 22 RA 12 MK 4 Lib 2 BNP 0 Ind 135 #Vote2013

    The kippers have gone from 0-147 faster than Ronnie O'Sullivan!

    I love that Sam. Pity I can't signal, like.
    So 147 seats and 139 gains. Not bad for us kippers.

    £5 and kisses winging it's way to PtP. :)
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,815
    There will MPs and would be MPs in all three main parties who are thinking this evening "the party leadership is going to ruin my political career".

    I remember a cartoon of the 1992 US presidential election - it had Bush, Clinton and Perot all standing on the third place podium.

    Of course Bush I, Clinton and Perot were political titans compared to Cameron, Clegg and Miliband.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    The News Quiz is plumbing new depths re Lefty smuggery about Kippers - and frankly really offensive about Farage on a personal level.

    I've switched it off.
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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Of course Bush I, Clinton and Perot were political titans compared to Cameron, Clegg and Miliband."

    Louise Mensch is a political titan compared to Ross Perot.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,701
    Well what an interesting election. The Eastern thing mentioned by Southam is stark. Finally it appears that the East Anglian rural white working class has found a home, having deserted Labour in the sixties. Here in the midlands (and, I suspect, the north) there is a very different demographic at work. This holds out a crumb of comfort for Labour.

    Here in Shropshire, there was remarkably little change. A minor drift from the Tories to both Lab and LD in Shrewsbury, and a few Indies doing well at all points of the compass, but otherwise no real change. Most amazing thing for me was that in a decent sized market town - Whitchurch, with three seats across two divisions, the Tories were unopposed.
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    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited May 2013
    UKIP will of course fall back in a General Election, when an actual choice has to be made as to the next government, rather than yesterday's largely cost-free protest vote. Who knows, perhaps some UKIP supporters might actually want a referendum on the EU, in which case they will vote Tory, although it's likely that this was only a minor part of the motivation of most UKIP voters yesterday.

    Thus, the question is: will the near-inevitable drop-back from yesterday's UKIP vote share benefit one of the other parties more than another? To the extent that the UKIP vote share came mainly from grumbling Tories, then other things being equal, the drop back would benefit the Tories more compared with yesterday's projected national vote share.

    However, the interesting question to me is whether other things are likely to be equal. Will former Labour, BNP, LibDem and NOTA protest voters of yesterday behave differently to former Conservative protest voters of yesterday, or will they all tend to go home to their respective 2010 behaviour in similar proportions ?

    Dunno.

    But that is probably the key to the next election.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    Bloody brave of Mike to speak of EdM getting to Downing St. Who's to say UKIP won't now go on to break through the threshold?

    Chances are there will be another by-election for one reason or another before 2015 and if it does happen that's one opportunity for Farage to finally get an MP. Otherwise it's still FPTP and that's a high bar for any party to suddenly launch over with any significant number of MPs. The odds of one or two UKIP MPs are far better today than yesterday but that's not the same as any breakthrough. The EU elections are their next test anyway and we know what party needs to talk about Europe the least and which one wants to the most.

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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,815
    This really is an astonishingly dismal result for Labour.

    29% during a depression with the other two main parties in government and a pretty useless government at that.

    EdM should still become PM in 2015 because Cameron and Clegg are even more politically useless than he is.

    But Labour piling up votes in the urban areas is a similar dead end to the Conservatives piling up votes in rural areas in 2005.

    Not many opportunities for Labour gains in Liverpool, Newcastle, Sheffield and East London is there.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Tim

    Easy to understand,not exactly astrophysics.

    What's difficult to understand is mid term poll,cuts,austerity,the perfect storm for an opposition and Labour poll so badly.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    UKIP will of course fall back in a General Election, when an actual choice has to be made as to the next government,

    Of course they will but all the way back to the 3.1% they had in 2010? Very unlikely and even that much hampered the tories in some marginals.

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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Very solid positive set of results for Labour making the gains where it matters.

    Two things EVERYONE on this board can be glad off

    1) The BNP have been hammered today. Really really hammered. They could well fold as a party.

    2) Dan Hodges is on record as saying he will run down Whitehall naked if UKIP poll 6% at the next general election. Unlucky Dan!
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    MaxPB said:

    The Tories need a leader who can form an electoral pact with UKIP so they stand down in Lib/Con and Lab/Con marginals and an instruction for their supporters to vote Tory in these seats to ensure they get an EU referendum. I don't think they would sign such a deal with Cameron in charge of the Tories, and without such a deal the party may as well write off 2015 and 2020 while right wing voters learn how to vote tactically.

    Surely many have voted Kipper for the simple reason they arent the Tories. Farage owes it to those who have voted for his party to offer a proper alternative and a grubby alliance with the Tories would be poorly received all round.
    Certainly Farage has pretty much closed off the possibility of any sort of deal with Cameron and given the persistence condescending attitude of Tory politicians even after they've been given a bloody nose then I doubt a deal is doable even if the Tories did get rid of Cameron.

    If down the line you have an acceptable Tory leader then perhaps some sort of deal can be done but I can't see that happening this side of 2015 and perhaps not until the 2020's.

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    samsam Posts: 727
    Plato said:

    Ha


    TheUKIPWales
    @ukipwales
    Labour girl in the audience who tore into Diane James on Question Time comes third in Kent. UKIP win the seat.

    Made my Day!
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,815

    "I dont see much whining; just some very worried lefties"

    I can only speak for myself, but I'm not worried. As that famous Panelbase poll showed, if Scottish voters assume that the Tories are going to win the next election, then Yes jumps into the lead in the independence referendum.

    I'm not entirely sure what has gone wrong for Labour over the last few weeks, but the direction of travel is unmistakable, and this result is even worse for them than I anticipated.

    You certainly shouldn't be worried JK.

    The SNP have perhaps the most useless Conservative, Labour and LibDems in history as opponents.

    If you don't win your independence vote in 2014 I'm sure you would by 2020 if only to get away from the shambles which UK politics and government is going to be for the rest of the decade.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,299
    IOS said:

    Very solid positive set of results for Labour making the gains where it matters.

    Two things EVERYONE on this board can be glad off

    1) The BNP have been hammered today. Really really hammered. They could well fold as a party.

    2) Dan Hodges is on record as saying he will run down Whitehall naked if UKIP poll 6% at the next general election. Unlucky Dan!

    What would his mother say...
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Mike

    UKIP certainly matter when it comes to saving the Lib Dems. On the projections you hardly lose any seats - if any - in the south.


    Amazingly FPTP is about to save the Lib Dems!!!
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    SeanT said:



    Crosby is far too smart to want abusive Tory attacks on UKIP.

    The man behind Michael Howard's electoral 'triumph' and "are you thinking what we're thinking?" is too smart is he?

    LOL

    If you say so.

    Boris is also the primary reason he won the London Mayorality, not Crosby.

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    However, the interesting question to me is whether other things are likely to be equal. Will former Labour, BNP, LibDem and NOTA protest voters of yesterday behave differently to former Conservative protest voters of yesterday, or will they all tend to go home to their respective 2010 behaviour in equal proportions ?

    This is the heart of the matter Richard. All things are not equal. The trend to protest voting is now fairly well cemented since the demise of the Blair Halo circa 2003. There will be a protest and on current trends it will be bigger than the last protests.

    What should worry the elite more is not which party will benefit, but that these protest votes are overwhelmingly confined to the young, old and working class. The very people all major parties aspire to win over. And the protest voters don't even care if they are voting in protest for poshos (UKIP), bare-faced liars (libdems c.2010) or utter racists (BNP c.2009.)

    As they say, the trend is your friend.
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Is there any way to compare these results meaningfully with results before last time? How much have Labour "rolled back the clock"?
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    His mother would probably say.

    "I won an Oscar for getting my kit off. You lost a bet!"
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    MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    It's a pertinent point made by Mike. The reds, blues and yellows are retreating to their comfort zones (literally) - even if they all pretend to be One Nation parties - and the real fight will be over the marginals that will mean either Labour or the Conservatives end up as the largest party, sharing power with the Lib Dems.

    If the general election were next week then we would likely have Miliband in Downing Street (partly because of Ukip), but the election campaign doesn't start for another 18 months and although today's results are reasonably good for Labour in the areas that matter, mid term protest towards Labour (such as it is) does not mean Miliband will get their votes when it comes to the crunch.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    IOS said:

    2) Dan Hodges is on record as saying he will run down Whitehall naked if UKIP poll 6% at the next general election. Unlucky Dan!

    He really is a compelte tw*t isn't he? Imagine repeatedly quoting this utter fool as if he were in any way not a complete joke and self-parody.

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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Here's some analysis from Patrick Briône, director of research at the polling firm Survation: "...As for the wider impact, our analysis (see e.g. the scatter chart) has shown that Ukip's support comes primarily from the Conservatives and some Liberal Democrats to start with, but by the time they are polling over 20% they can be taking a significant chunk of the Labour vote away as well.

    This can be seen to be borne out in today's results - Ukip for instance knocked 4,600 votes off Labour's majority in South Shields despite the collapse of the Conservatives in the by-election. While Ukip's vote share in many strongly Conservative areas will have cost the Tories seats to other parties including Labour, in the areas where UKIP has done their best they have taken seats that might otherwise have gone to Labour.

    Overall, then, Labour have benefited from UKIP's success, but may be starting to get slightly uncomfortable that UKIP is becoming a little bit too successful and starting to threaten their own seats as well."

    http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2013/05/03/local-elections-2013-as-it-happens
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Grandiose

    Not really as you have to go back 20 years for the last time other than 2009 when these weren't held on a general election day.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Returning to my Tamworth analysis one last time:

    Tamworth borough result:

    Lab 6083
    Con 5622
    UKIP 2275
    Others 813
    LD 533
    Green 405

    The results in the two rural divisions were as follows:

    Con: 2798 (48.3%)
    UKIP: 1729 (29.9%)
    Lab: 1006 (17.4%)
    LD: 259 (4.5%)

    Total: 5792

    Adding these votes to the Tamworth borough result:

    Con: 8420 (39.1%)
    Lab: 7089 (32.9%)
    UKIP: 4004 (18.6%)
    LD: 792 (3.7%)
    Others: 1218 (5.7%)

    Total: 21523

    Changes since 2010 general election:

    Con: -6.7%
    Lab: +0.2%
    UKIP: +13.7%
    LD: -12.5%
    Others: +5.2%

    Swing, Con to Lab: 3.5%
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    Mick_Pork said:

    SeanT said:



    Crosby is far too smart to want abusive Tory attacks on UKIP.

    The man behind Michael Howard's electoral 'triumph' and "are you thinking what we're thinking?" is too smart is he?

    LOL

    If you say so.

    Boris is also the primary reason he won the London Mayorality, not Crosby.

    Wasn't Cameron integral in Howard's campaign as well (developing the Manifesto etc). Are you sure that slogan wasn't one of Dave's?
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,701
    The perfect storm for the Kippers is that it is the Euros next year, their best opportunity to consolidate. They could top the poll in some regions. After that, they will have to target Westminster seats seriously, but where will Farage stand?

    Favs must be Folkestone, Yarmouth, Boston & Skeg? All include fading coastal resort towns. Thanet another possibility?
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,539
    Normally in mid term the "what if a GE today" would give a massive majority for the opposition party. For Lab to only be on the boundary of getting a majority today is a horrendous result.

    When did the opposition last do better at a GE than they had done in mid term?

    Incidentally the BBC National Share is 29/25, not 29/24.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,782


    Surely many have voted Kipper for the simple reason they arent the Tories. Farage owes it to those who have voted for his party to offer a proper alternative and a grubby alliance with the Tories would be poorly received all round.

    If David Cameron was pushed out as leader and a new Eurosceptic leader was voted in by the party then there would be no problem. A lot of the UKIP voters have a problem with Cameron specifically, yes there are many who wouldn't vote Tory generally, but a new working class Tory leader who isn't called David Cameron and isn't tainted by the "Cast Iron" promise failure would not be much of an issue I think, at least for a major bulk of UKIP voters.
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Mick

    You just have to see him as a blogging version of Lembit Opik. Then everything falls into place.
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    RicardohosRicardohos Posts: 258
    edited May 2013

    UKIP will of course fall back in a General Election, when an actual choice has to be made as to the next government, rather than yesterday's largely cost-free protest vote.

    Thus, the question is: will the near-inevitable drop-back from yesterday's UKIP vote share


    Dunno.

    .

    So which is it? 'Of course they will drop back' or 'near-inevitable'? You're right, you dunno.

    Nor do you know whether this might be the start of a bandwagon that takes UKIP forward to even greater successes in national votes.

    What you do seem to know is very little about what happened if you can describe UKIP support on at least three times in one post merely as 'protest'. Wake up Richard et. al.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,815
    2011 Labour 37%
    2012 Labour 39%
    2012 Labour 29%

    That ain't 'sealing the deal' is it.

    Piling up votes in safe areas is not what Labour needs.

    So whose for the chop first ?

    Osborne ?
    Balls ?
    Clegg ?

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    The perfect storm for the Kippers is that it is the Euros next year, their best opportunity to consolidate. They could top the poll in some regions. After that, they will have to target Westminster seats seriously, but where will Farage stand?

    Favs must be Folkestone, Yarmouth, Boston & Skeg? All include fading coastal resort towns. Thanet another possibility?

    Well given UKIP took 7 of 8 wards in Thanet both Thanet seats (North & South) would be worth targetting. Swale and Sheppey in Kent is also worth looking at. It's split between Labour and UKIP now. in terms of County Council seats
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    Wasn't Cameron integral in Howard's campaign as well (developing the Manifesto etc). Are you sure that slogan wasn't one of Dave's?

    Slogans and soundbites tend to be under the purview of the press operations not the policy units. Though I'll grant you "The Big Society", "Aspiration Nation", the "Ronseal Deal" and the unforgettable "we're all in this together" are proof that the tories still haven't learned much there. Crosby or no Crosby.

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Marina Hyde in the Guardian:

    "Nigel Farage: a man I would gladly have a pint with

    The Ukip leader makes his opponents look as if they take things far too seriously. The normal rulebook does not apply":


    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/03/nigel-farage-superpower-politics-lightly
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    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    MaxPB said:

    a new working class Tory leader who isn't called David Cameron and isn't tainted by the "Cast Iron" promise failure would not be much of an issue I think, at least for a major bulk of UKIP voters.

    Nonsense. All that would happen is that the unpopularity (which is based on a denial of reality) would rapidly transfer to the new leader, who equally wouldn't be able to make water into wine, retrospectively change the parliamentary arithmetic of 2010, turn back the clock on immigration, magic away the nonsenses of the ECHR, conjure growth out of nowhere, or figure out an instant way of getting the advantages of the EU and EEA without the disadvantages.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,536
    SeanT said:

    DavidL said:
    "Missed in all the excitment today but some really excellent PMIs for services: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10035097/UK-services-sector-hits-eight-month-high.html

    Service growth at an 8 month high last month. That is three from three this week all pointing to much faster growth from here.

    Will this be part of the answer? If the economy is seen to turn around will UKIP supporters start to feel more gruntled? And what on earth does Labour do then?"

    If the British economy starts to accelerate, even as the eurozone stagnates - and this looks increasingly possible - that will mean Britain sucks in even more immigrants from eastern and southern Europe.

    I don't think that's going to dent UKIP's chances, do you?

    I replied on the previous thread Sean. I think some of UKIPs support are very focussed on this and would not be impressed but my suspicion is that the larger part of UKIP's support today came from people who have had wages falling in real terms for the best part of 5 years now, who can no longer afford the luxuries they took for granted, who are going downmarket on their holidays, delaying in replacing the car, letting repairs slip, not getting out so often and have generally just had enough.

    If they see the economy, and far more importantly their own wages pick up their view of life will change and so will their votes. It is getting very tight to do this before the election because perception here follows reality at a distance but there is still a chance. They also need to be scared silly about what Labour would do to them the next time.

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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,701

    This really is an astonishingly dismal result for Labour.

    29% during a depression with the other two main parties in government and a pretty useless government at that.

    EdM should still become PM in 2015 because Cameron and Clegg are even more politically useless than he is.

    Spin away... Labour have actually done adequately this time where they needed to, the Midlands. It's here where the next election will be fought.

    Labour needs to find one or two charismatic attack dogs and get them into the media spotlight (and I don't mean Ed Balls!). If nothing else, this election says that people are sick of bland platitude-spouting drones of all colours. And Labour has these in spades.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Jonathan Freedland:

    "Consider this fact. Only one party managed to clear the 20% threshold in both the South Shields byelection last night and the parliamentary contest in Eastleigh in February. That was not Labour, which safely won in the former last night, after it had trailed in fourth in the latter. It certainly was not the Tories, who came third in both places. And it emphatically was not the Liberal Democrats who managed to retain Eastleigh, but won a miserable 352 votes – half those of the BNP – to come seventh in South Shields.

    Only Ukip performed strongly in both these seats, one in the heart of traditionally Tory southern England, the other in a northern Labour stronghold – claiming nearly 28% in the first and 24% in the second.

    To have such wide geographic appeal, taking on both government and opposition, is a feat rarely achieved by a third party, let alone a fourth."


    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/03/local-elections-results-panel-verdict
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,815
    MaxPB said:


    Surely many have voted Kipper for the simple reason they arent the Tories. Farage owes it to those who have voted for his party to offer a proper alternative and a grubby alliance with the Tories would be poorly received all round.

    If David Cameron was pushed out as leader and a new Eurosceptic leader was voted in by the party then there would be no problem. A lot of the UKIP voters have a problem with Cameron specifically, yes there are many who wouldn't vote Tory generally, but a new working class Tory leader who isn't called David Cameron and isn't tainted by the "Cast Iron" promise failure would not be much of an issue I think, at least for a major bulk of UKIP voters.
    That's not going to happen outside of the next election.

    Firstly because its not just Cameron who's the problem - its Cameron and all his chums. You'd need to clear out Osborne, Letwin, Maude, Hunt and the rest. Compare with 1990 when the problem was specifically Thatcher.

    Secondly because its important that the Cameroons 'own' the 2015 election defeat. After today we can be sure its not going to be a Labour landslide so the Conservatives will have the chance to quickly recover once the chumocracy has been dealt with and while the Eds flounder in government.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,782

    Nonsense. All that would happen is that the unpopularity (which is based on a denial of reality) would rapidly transfer to the new leader, who equally wouldn't be able to make water into wine, retrospectively change the parliamentary arithmetic of 2010, turn back the clock on immigration, magic away the nonsenses of the ECHR, conjure growth out of nowhere, or figure out an instant way of getting the advantages of the EU and EEA without the disadvantages.

    Stay in denial all you want Richard, but UKIP's rise is related to David Cameron's failure to grasp the nettle on the Europe issue early in 2009 when Labour voted through Lisbon without a referendum. Back then he should have switched to an In/Out pledge and kept his promise to give the people a vote on Europe.

    A new leader would be untainted by this failure, and a heavyweight Eurosceptic would be enough to find a common thread with UKIP/Farage. That will be impossible for Cameron to do, Farage and many UKIP members really do despise Cameron, one only needs to read the Telegraph comments section to witness this.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @IOS

    'Very solid positive set of results for Labour making the gains where it matters.'

    Your having a laugh? Labour didn't even reach the Railings & Thatcher forecast.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited May 2013
    Well I eat my words: local elections were interesting. My view Tories: could've been worse given the cutting being applied and not bad per se at this stage but huge caveat what to do about strategic split in right of centre vote. Labour: should be doing a lot better but in built electoral advantage brought into sharp focus today; it still works in their favour. UKIP clearly great but doubtless scrutiny will really start, their sums don't add up and some of their "characterful" new councillors will screw up in the glare of publicity doubtless. Libs: God awful, pure circle the wagons around the 57 or whatever it is MPs time.


    I think it will really kick off post Euros and Scots poll next year. The Tories may (desperately?) want a deal with UKIP though if the Scots did vote to go that 's Ed's electoral advantage largely gone south in one fell swoop.

    Time for a reflective Summer all round.

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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,782


    That's not going to happen outside of the next election.

    Firstly because its not just Cameron who's the problem - its Cameron and all his chums. You'd need to clear out Osborne, Letwin, Maude, Hunt and the rest. Compare with 1990 when the problem was specifically Thatcher.

    Secondly because its important that the Cameroons 'own' the 2015 election defeat. After today we can be sure its not going to be a Labour landslide so the Conservatives will have the chance to quickly recover once the chumocracy has been dealt with and while the Eds flounder in government.

    Possibly, but I think by pushing Cameron out a lot of his chumocracy would go with him and a whole new Cabinet would replace them.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,815

    This really is an astonishingly dismal result for Labour.

    29% during a depression with the other two main parties in government and a pretty useless government at that.

    EdM should still become PM in 2015 because Cameron and Clegg are even more politically useless than he is.

    Spin away... Labour have actually done adequately this time where they needed to, the Midlands. It's here where the next election will be fought.

    Labour needs to find one or two charismatic attack dogs and get them into the media spotlight (and I don't mean Ed Balls!). If nothing else, this election says that people are sick of bland platitude-spouting drones of all colours. And Labour has these in spades.
    I'll leave the spinning to you mate.

    I've said at least twice here that EdM will become prime minster in 2015.

    But that doesn't stop today being a dismal performance by Labour.

    Still you can only beat what you're up against and what Labour are up against is even worse than they are.

    But that doesn't alter the fact that Labour have done significantly worse than in 2005 at the point in the electoral cycle which should be most advantageous for them.

    Personally I'm looking forward to the government of the Eds - it will combine the worst bits of the Brown and Cameron governments.

    It will be very entertaining watching and things need to reach the bottom before they can look up.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    tim said:

    " You'd need to clear out Osborne, Letwin, Maude, Hunt and the rest."

    That in itself is probably worth 5% to the Tories.

    Likely nearer to 10. The economy is still going to dominate in 2015 and little Ed hardly want's Balls up against someone competent.

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    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    @MaxPB - UKIP's success yesterday has little to do with Europe. I think another_richard has a better grip on the root causes of the disgruntlement, even if I don't agree with him on much else.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Inevitable.
    Isabel Hardman ‏@IsabelHardman 1h

    The more I think about this backbench EU bill plan, the more I realise it's going to turn into a HUGE row with the PM http://specc.ie/YsCf5X
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    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Well no chance to follow things much today. Driving home I heard Pickles on the radio responding to gutted Tory councillors... I doubt that smug dissery would have gone down well.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,770


    Nonsense. All that would happen is that the unpopularity (which is based on a denial of reality) would rapidly transfer to the new leader,

    If nothing else, one thing yesterday has shown is that it is the Cameroons who are in denial of reality.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,536
    SeanT said:

    My guess is that opening ten minutes of the BBC news at 6 probably added another 200,000 voters to the UKIP cause.

    First we get 5 minutes of Farage looking happy, relaxed and personable, in a pub; sounding normal; making sensible remarks, with a dash of wit - and therefore coming across better than almost any other politician in the UK.

    Then we get five minutes of the other political leaders looking panicked, and speaking in that awkward neutered special patois they use, which always sounds like a pack of lies, even when it isn't.

    I can see why lefties are enraged by the BBC's positive coverage of the kippers.

    All good points Sean. I have not seem mainstream politicians of all parties looking so flustered since the peak of the expenses scandal. I think UKIP are completely silly and simplistic and would never vote for them in any conceiveable scenario but it is frankly good to see. All those politicians who thought Blair, with his concentration on the marginals to the expense of everything else, was some sort of electoral god have had a wake up call and that is undoubtedly a good thing for our politics.

    It is time the tories found out who speaks normal English and get them out front and central. Pickles was doing a good job on the BBC today.

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    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Like the identity parade scene from 'Usual Suspects' on C4.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Shapps blundering all over the place on the News just now over Cammie's "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists" stupidity. Most amusing.

    Farage sticking the boot right into Cammie with quite some glee. He's earned it.
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    MaxPB said:

    a new working class Tory leader who isn't called David Cameron and isn't tainted by the "Cast Iron" promise failure would not be much of an issue I think, at least for a major bulk of UKIP voters.

    Nonsense. All that would happen is that the unpopularity (which is based on a denial of reality) would rapidly transfer to the new leader, who equally wouldn't be able to make water into wine, retrospectively change the parliamentary arithmetic of 2010, turn back the clock on immigration, magic away the nonsenses of the ECHR, conjure growth out of nowhere, or figure out an instant way of getting the advantages of the EU and EEA without the disadvantages.
    Well done in extending the new Cameron/Clarke fuelled Tory variant of the 'nasty party' stereotype by suggesting UKIP voters are in denial . If the new leader's attitude was like yours then you are absolutely right. It would be very easy to dislike him or her immediately.


This discussion has been closed.