Action that simply won't happen and an amusingly 'helpful' suggestion to continue campaigning on UKIPs core issues despite the obvious result. We all know why UKIP supporters think this is a great idea but for that very reason even the most out of touch tory backbenchers might like to pause just a moment and consider precisely why UKIP are so keen and happy for this to continue. It's certainly not because the kippers fear the tories banging on about those issues.
Just watching Farage, fag and a pint, saying what he thinks... the others must look on with envy. 'There's a bloke, being himself, winning votes. Must be nice.'
Like anything else in life, being a politician who doesn't do what he thinks but plays to what he thinks the public want, and fails anyway, must lead to a lifetime if "what ifs?"
Your report is an inaccurate travesty. Nick Robinson, who seemed to be particularly fired up anti-UKIP, did not say this. Please correct it.
I wouldn't hold your breath LD. Roger's whole modus operandi is to make false and unsupportable statements and then ignore those who point out he has misrepresented the facts in the hope that people will remember the original lie but not the rebuttals.
Presumably Roger's parents made sure he had the MMR jab .
@RichardNabavi GuidoFawkes @JGForsyth Was the same under Thatcher. Posh wets full of noblesse obilge, middle class Thatcherites who could connect with electorate.
Some truth in that.
But that was then, and in recent years we'd more or less got over the obsession with class.
@RichardNabavi GuidoFawkes @JGForsyth Was the same under Thatcher. Posh wets full of noblesse obilge, middle class Thatcherites who could connect with electorate.
Some truth in that.
But that was then, and in recent years we'd more or less got over the obsession with class.
KirstyBuchanan4 Chuka Umunna claims on Newsnight that Labour has "absolutely" got back support in the south - then talks about Sherwood, in Nottinghamshire.
Don't you just love chuka lol
The 29% vote is a projected national vote. Over this wide expanse of shire england One nation Labour got less than 1 vote in six. They may form a government, but they will have a very poor mandate.
In agreeing with him, I don't mean to infer that only UKIP will have rogue representatives just that their relative inexperience and location on the political spectrum combined with greater external scrutiny will lead to higher risks.
Perhaps but I'm not sure 'experience' is necessarily of any use if you lack common sense to go with it. I mean your Government's Deputy Prime Minister was a drunken yob who thought it cool to burn down a prize collection of cacti when he was young and the Shadow Chancellor .used to like to dress up in questionable costumes for parties (and of course he's not the only one). Of course then there are those who belong to drinking clubs which have a reputation for wrecking restaraunts and the Prime Minister himself has done many things which have caused offence'.
This is the thing the hatchet job thing has been done to death and the hysteria with which the Westminster Freakshow greets every new revelation is increasingly wearing so unless such revelations have some real potency and are not flippant then its probably not worth bothering. Not only that but UKIP are the mirror image of the politically crass Westminster Freakshow so many of the things which would create horror and disgust with the guardianista liberal elite of Islington and Notting Hill would actually possibly be considered a badge of honour. Westminster crass pedantry could as easily strengthen UKIP as it could expose their shortfalls.
The point is that the mainstream media will regard UKIP councillors as potential targets. A tabloid journalist doesn't need justification to run a damaging story, just an excuse.
It will be up to UKIP councillors to avoid providing that excuse.
"As the SNP are finding, when push comes to shove, voters stay with nurse. They want comfort blankets."
The nurse being the SNP government in Edinburgh, and the comfort blankets being required to protect against the unbridled Thatcherism that would be on its way without independence.
@RichardNabavi GuidoFawkes @JGForsyth Was the same under Thatcher. Posh wets full of noblesse obilge, middle class Thatcherites who could connect with electorate.
Some truth in that.
But that was then, and in recent years we'd more or less got over the obsession with class.
Now it's back. Thanks, One Nation Labour.
I don't think it's seen as 'class', really, these days. Even our betters have dumbed down.
It's terrible, Tories should know their places and accept that Dave surrounding himself with the products of 1% of society is because that's where all the talent is.
Sadly, thanks to Anthony Crosland, you will find that the old cohorts of grammar-school educated people from modest backgrounds are disappearing from the top of all professions, and independently-educated people are taking over all the top jobs: at the BBC, the Guardian, in the legal profession, in business, even (I'm given to understand) in sport and boy bands. It would be remarkable if politics bucked the trend, wouldn't it?
Luckily Michael Gove is doing a fantastic job putting in place the measures needed to reverse this doleful trend. Let's hope he's given enough time to finish the job; I'm more optimistic today than I was a couple of days ago.
KirstyBuchanan4 Chuka Umunna claims on Newsnight that Labour has "absolutely" got back support in the south - then talks about Sherwood, in Nottinghamshire.
Don't you just love chuka lol
The 29% vote is a projected national vote. Over this wide expanse of shire england One nation Labour got less than 1 vote in six. They may form a government, but they will have a very poor mandate.
Not sure that anyone will get much of a mandate against a turnout of 60% or so - perhaps less next time.
One nation Labour placed Sherwood in Northamptonshire on Newsnight. Clearly it's a multicultural nation, with an uncertain grasp on the nation's geography.
NadineDorriesMP Ok, ok, back in the room! Apparently, weekend celebrations for daughters birthday necessitating my break from Twitter has fuelled rumours!
@RichardNabavi GuidoFawkes @JGForsyth Was the same under Thatcher. Posh wets full of noblesse obilge, middle class Thatcherites who could connect with electorate.
Some truth in that.
But that was then, and in recent years we'd more or less got over the obsession with class.
Now it's back. Thanks, One Nation Labour.
I don't think it's seen as 'class', really, these days. Even our betters have dumbed down.
RichardNavabi - True, Gove's reforms will help raise the average, but unless we have a few more grammar schools, and they should select at 16 as well as 11 and 13, then the state sector will never compete with the top independents, and short of the odd scholarship and bursary to a lucky few, meritocracy will remain stalled!
"Your report is an inaccurate travesty. Nick Robinson, who seemed to be particularly fired up anti-UKIP, did not say this. Please correct it."
Forgive my inaccuracy. I was making reference to the thread that Mike had up which I assumed everyone had seen. I wasn't making a point about the original poll just that it was interesting that Nick Robinson had used the same very telling but unusual bit of polling to make the interesting anti establishment point. I can't remember whether it was twice or ten times-and it doesn't matter.
@RichardNabavi GuidoFawkes @JGForsyth Was the same under Thatcher. Posh wets full of noblesse obilge, middle class Thatcherites who could connect with electorate.
Ted Heath was from an almost identical social background to Margaret Thatcher.
Were they equally capable of connecting with the electorate?
Ted Heath is not a popular figure, but he did win an election from behind in 1970, and a second one narrowly in 1974. He was not an electoral disaster at the time.
"As the SNP are finding, when push comes to shove, voters stay with nurse. They want comfort blankets."
The nurse being the SNP government in Edinburgh, and the comfort blankets being required to protect against the unbridled Thatcherism that would be on its way without independence.
Agreed. That is what the SNP are finding.
No, James. The SNP are finding that they need to water down the concept of independence by doing U-turns on the currency and NATO, and bluster over the EU, in an attempt to assuage doubts. Sadly, I don't think it will work, but I'd be pleased if it did, since I think independence is in the interests both of Scotland and the UK as a whole.
@RichardNabavi GuidoFawkes @JGForsyth Was the same under Thatcher. Posh wets full of noblesse obilge, middle class Thatcherites who could connect with electorate.
Ted Heath was from an almost identical social background to Margaret Thatcher.
Were they equally capable of connecting with the electorate?
Ted Heath is not a popular figure, but he did win an election from behind in 1970, and a second one narrowly in 1974. He was not an electoral disaster at the time.
I don't dispute that, Dr Sox. But he didn't really "connect with the electorate".
"Your report is an inaccurate travesty. Nick Robinson, who seemed to be particularly fired up anti-UKIP, did not say this. Please correct it."
Forgive my inaccuracy. I was making reference to the thread that Mike had up which I assumed everyone had seen. I wasn't making a point about the original poll just that it was interesting that Nick Robinson had used the same very telling but unusual bit of polling to make the interesting anti establishment point. I can't remember whether it was twice or ten times-and it doesn't matter.
It's as I thought: you are just not capable of correcting it.
The point is that the mainstream media will regard UKIP councillors as potential targets. A tabloid journalist doesn't need justification to run a damaging story, just an excuse.
It will be up to UKIP councillors to avoid providing that excuse.
No more than any other politician. I know the leaderships of the mainstream parties think that UKIP supporters undertake strange rituals in which animals are sacrificed and other such behaviour but I think you will find most UKIP supporters are just ordinary people much like everybody else. I expect the media will soon get bored of looking to hatchet ordinary people. There will be little to write about. Its not as if they were a specially selected A-List. Now that had some doozies in it
@RichardNabavi GuidoFawkes @JGForsyth Was the same under Thatcher. Posh wets full of noblesse obilge, middle class Thatcherites who could connect with electorate.
Some truth in that.
But that was then, and in recent years we'd more or less got over the obsession with class.
Now it's back. Thanks, One Nation Labour.
I don't think it's seen as 'class', really, these days. Even our betters have dumbed down.
'Yes, hats off to the Labour media manipulators. They've done brilliantly well bringing class divisiveness - which had more or less died out in the UK'
Labour have nothing else to say or offer,oppose everything,a blank piece of paper for policy,just try to stoke up class hatred.And pretend to be a progressive party.
NadineDorriesMP Con MPs took more time off for parliament trips abroad and ski ing trips than I did. If they went to the right schools, they were fine.
@RichardNabavi GuidoFawkes @JGForsyth Was the same under Thatcher. Posh wets full of noblesse obilge, middle class Thatcherites who could connect with electorate.
Some truth in that.
But that was then, and in recent years we'd more or less got over the obsession with class.
Now it's back. Thanks, One Nation Labour.
I don't think it's seen as 'class', really, these days. Even our betters have dumbed down.
I'm having a Nigel Moment. Suddenly realised I'd be QUITE happy if UKIP actually WON the next election. Why not? Let it rip.
I have spent my entire life under the Labour-Tory duopoly. And you know what? I'd quite like something different. I'm sure it would disappoint, but so does love.
Action that simply won't happen and an amusingly 'helpful' suggestion to continue campaigning on UKIPs core issues despite the obvious result. We all know why UKIP supporters think this is a great idea but for that very reason even the most out of touch tory backbenchers might like to pause just a moment and consider precisely why UKIP are so keen and happy for this to continue. It's certainly not because the kippers fear the tories banging on about those issues.
? UKIP supporters want a referendum. They don't want to campaign for one, they want to have a referendum.
If the government actually called a referendum, then that aspect of UKIP's appeal would cease.
The point is that the mainstream media will regard UKIP councillors as potential targets. A tabloid journalist doesn't need justification to run a damaging story, just an excuse.
It will be up to UKIP councillors to avoid providing that excuse.
No more than any other politician. I know the leaderships of the mainstream parties think that UKIP supporters undertake strange rituals in which animals are sacrificed and other such behaviour but I think you will find most UKIP supporters are just ordinary people much like everybody else. I expect the media will soon get bored of looking to hatchet ordinary people. There will be little to write about. Its not as if they were a specially selected A-List. Now that had some doozies in it
@RichardNabavi GuidoFawkes @JGForsyth Was the same under Thatcher. Posh wets full of noblesse obilge, middle class Thatcherites who could connect with electorate.
Ted Heath was from an almost identical social background to Margaret Thatcher.
Were they equally capable of connecting with the electorate?
Ted Heath is not a popular figure, but he did win an election from behind in 1970, and a second one narrowly in 1974. He was not an electoral disaster at the time.
I don't dispute that, Dr Sox. But he didn't really "connect with the electorate".
He was a famously cold fish, but Mrs Thatcher was famously without a sense of humour, and at times arrogant and condescending. It stopped neither from being elected.
Modern politicians seem to have that weakness of wanting to be perpetually liked in a rather pathetic way. They need to be a bit more thick skinned, they are trying to run a country, not host a dinner party. It is quite a paradox that Farage is liked, through making no concessions to popular tastes. he is his own man.
I am not as convinced as you that Farage's persona is natural. I believe it is as crafted to appeal to his target audience as any other leading politician.
@RichardNabavi GuidoFawkes @JGForsyth Was the same under Thatcher. Posh wets full of noblesse obilge, middle class Thatcherites who could connect with electorate.
Ted Heath was from an almost identical social background to Margaret Thatcher.
Were they equally capable of connecting with the electorate?
Ted Heath is not a popular figure, but he did win an election from behind in 1970, and a second one narrowly in 1974. He was not an electoral disaster at the time.
I don't dispute that, Dr Sox. But he didn't really "connect with the electorate".
He was a famously cold fish, but Mrs Thatcher was famously without a sense of humour, and at times arrogant and condescending. It stopped neither from being elected.
Modern politicians seem to have that weakness of wanting to be perpetually liked in a rather pathetic way. They need to be a bit more thick skinned, they are trying to run a country, not host a dinner party. It is quite a paradox that Farage is liked, through making no concessions to popular tastes. he is his own man.
I am not as convinced as you that Farage's persona is natural. I believe it is as crafted to appeal to his target audience as any other leading politician.
In truth, he is a very successful media tart.
Of course - I assumed everyone here realised that.
Surely no-one seriously thought that he always has a pint in his hand even if there's no camera around, and that he believes all that tosh about Cameron?
UKIP supporters want a referendum. They don't want to campaign for one, they want to have a referendum.
If the government actually called a referendum, then that aspect of UKIP's appeal would cease.?
No, UKIP voters generally want to withdraw from the EU. The referendum is a potential means (it is not the only one) to that end. If that means does not lead to that end then a referendum is of no value. It is debatable whether there is any likelihood that a Cameron inspired referendum would lead to withdrawal from the EU. Given his allegiance to that institution it is more likely that everything will be managed to ensure the Prime Minister gets the result he wants which is to remain in the EU. Do UKIP supporters want to remain in the EU. No.
'KirstyBuchanan4 Chuka Umunna claims on Newsnight that Labour has "absolutely" got back support in the south - then talks about Sherwood, in Nottinghamshire.'
Chuka making a fool of himself again,there's a surprise.
UKIP supporters want a referendum. They don't want to campaign for one, they want to have a referendum.
No they do not. Or at least Farage doesn't. You're telling me you don't understand why Farage is in politics? It's not to have a referendum, that is simply a means to an end. It's to get OUT of Europe. That's it. No ifs buts or maybes. Withdrawall. Were Farage and UKIP ever to be elected on a platform of pulling out of Europe he would likely consider that a mandate (with reasonable justification) and no referendum strictly necessary to do so.
It is that failure to understand Farage that preplexes so many tory eurosceptics. Most of them are not eurosceptics to Farage unless they are BOOers. Farage wants to make the entire tory party BOO and he requires no MPs to do so. Just patience if things keep going as they are.
If the government actually called a referendum, then that aspect of UKIP's appeal would cease.
With the tory party leadership campaigning to stay IN and the resulting tory split and carnage played out in excruciating slow motion car crash detail for the voter? Oh I'm sure the kippers would absolutely HATE that prospect.
I think the more Estonians than Etonians comment was a Macmillan jibe on the Thatcher cabinets. Probably with the same tongue in cheek that he displayed in his anti-privatisation speech when he referred to selling the family Canalettos.
Sean, it matters not a toss. Churchill was an Harrovian. Cameron is the nineteenth Etonian PM. But we have also had a son of trapeze artist and the daughter of a provincial grocer.
Prime Ministers succeed on their personality and achievements. Some Etonians will have it, others won't. A grocer's daughter did, a circus performer's son didn't.
@RichardNabavi GuidoFawkes @JGForsyth Was the same under Thatcher. Posh wets full of noblesse obilge, middle class Thatcherites who could connect with electorate.
Some truth in that.
But that was then, and in recent years we'd more or less got over the obsession with class.
Now it's back. Thanks, One Nation Labour.
I don't think it's seen as 'class', really, these days. Even our betters have dumbed down.
Didn't Thatcher famously prefer "Estonians to Etonians" - i.e. clever Jews over posh boys? That doesn't tally with her elevating more OEs than anyone else.
Either way Cameron's cultivation of his fecking chinless chums is a PR disaster, and the fact he cannot see this, or is incapable of correcting his error, is the greatest condemnation of his non-existent political skills.
The Tory must never again be led by an Old Etonian, they must, never again, be ruled by such a narrow cabal of rich, posh men. Because they can never win a majority with such an effete and elitist leadership.
UKIP, rightly or wrongly, are thriving because they are seen as Tories without the poshness. The lesson is painfully obvious.
@RichardNabavi GuidoFawkes @JGForsyth Was the same under Thatcher. Posh wets full of noblesse obilge, middle class Thatcherites who could connect with electorate.
Some truth in that.
But that was then, and in recent years we'd more or less got over the obsession with class.
Now it's back. Thanks, One Nation Labour.
I don't think it's seen as 'class', really, these days. Even our betters have dumbed down.
Didn't Thatcher famously prefer "Estonians to Etonians" - i.e. clever Jews over posh boys? That doesn't tally with her elevating more OEs than anyone else.
Either way Cameron's cultivation of his fecking chinless chums is a PR disaster, and the fact he cannot see this, or is incapable of correcting his error, is the greatest condemnation of his non-existent political skills.
The Tory party must never again be led by an Old Etonian, they must, never again, be ruled by such a narrow cabal of rich, posh men. Because they can never win a majority with such an effete and elitist leadership.
UKIP, rightly or wrongly, are thriving because they are seen as Tories without the poshness. The lesson is painfully obvious.
This is exactly what posh people wanted to happen when grammar schools were abolished. Most of them supported getting rid of them because they knew that a few decades later they'd be back running the country again as they always had in previous times.
I am not as convinced as you that Farage's persona is natural. I believe it is as crafted to appeal to his target audience as any other leading politician.
In truth, he is a very successful media tart.
Of course - I assumed everyone here realised that.
Surely no-one seriously thought that he always has a pint in his hand even if there's no camera around, and that he believes all that tosh about Cameron?
I'm sure he's seen as a bit of a rogue, prone to a bit of spin and gaming - but he doesn't hold his pint like it's a prop.
I get the impression that he's going to the pub and the press pack follows. He doesn't invite them up to his place for an awkward Guinness photoshoot.
The most fake thing I have ever seen or heard was David Cameron today saying that UKIP supporters ought to be "respected." We all know he thinks precisely the opposite.
I am not as convinced as you that Farage's persona is natural. I believe it is as crafted to appeal to his target audience as any other leading politician.
In truth, he is a very successful media tart.
Of course - I assumed everyone here realised that.
Surely no-one seriously thought that he always has a pint in his hand even if there's no camera around, and that he believes all that tosh about Cameron?
Every article I have ever read about Farage - from his days as an unknown MEP - has been pretty insistent that his media persona is his real persona. He likes a drink and a smoke, and he is fond of the ladies.
Indeed the only time I have personally met Farage was: outside a pub in Clapham, where he was privately sinking a few pints, after watching England at the Oval. He was smoking and chortling with friends, in that jovial and bantering manner: but there were no cameras to benefit from this, he was barely known then. He was just being himself: as you see on TV now.
Your smearing is obvious, pointless, jejune, and faintly embarrassing.
Funny how the political observer is so brainwashed into believing everyone is a phoney, a sad indictment of our society
This tweet from 1130am was fantastic
at half eleven RT @VMcAVSKY: Say what you like about #ukip's @Nigel_Farage but he can down a pint quickly pic.twitter.com/rEQPpUE9Rx
'This is exactly what posh people wanted to happen when grammar schools were abolished. Most of them supported getting rid of them because they knew that a few decades later they'd be back running the country again as they always had in previous times.'
AveryLP - Major did actually win an election in 1992 Thatcher would have lost, and laid the grounds for the post-Thatcher settlement and a successful economy which Labour largely squandered
It's an interesting suggestion, one worthy of further thought.
'Interesting' is one way of putting it. A referendum on having a mandate to back up the cast iron pledge referendum. Genius. Classic Redwood. It doesn't sound like pointless posturing at all. The kippers will not know what's hit them.
So why did the Cameroons join the class war of the metropolitan bigots against the provincial wwc and traditional Conservatives ?
They didn't. They (correctly I think) sought to align the Conservative Party with the social attitudes of younger voters - think a 30-year old woman who works in a marketing role in Basildon.
Where they made a mistake (assuming it is a mistake) was in assuming too quickly that that they had carried traditional supporter opinion with them, and being rather contemptuous of those who hadn't followed them. I'll grant you that.
However - the future, and the votes, are still with the 30-year old woman from Basildon. So I think the blame for any divisions attaches equally to those who didn't see they needed to adapt.
As I said earlier over the next 2 years the most important thing for UKIP is how their new councilors perform. They will now be judged as equals to the three "main" parties by the press, and 140 new councilors with little or no party machine to help, will find being a councilor challenging. I am sure that some colorful inexperienced characters have been elected today, a lot I expect didn't expect to win (especially the chap who didn't even go to the count). In the past Farage has only had a few MEPS and a tiny number of councilors to lead and control. That has all changed now and he has become very high profile. Some of his MEPs really let him down in the past and that was out of a very small number. What he doesn't need are a few of his new councilors mucking up. If they perform well then he can rightfully say that they are a serious party delivering for their constituents. If the press (who will be watching much more closely now) get their teeth into a number of UKIP councilors not performing as a councilor should then it will put Farage in a very difficult position. I don't think going to a pub and smiling will then work. I think Nick P mentioned earlier a previous UKIP councilor who had never even voted at a council meeting. I am sure that local issues are not the first thing on the mind of a typical UKIP councilor. You cannot withdraw from the EU or reduce immigration at a local level. It will be interesting.
The question is, have they planned for it? They need to ensure that new councillors are well supported with advice, starting with don't be controversial - be competent or be quiet. The next advice would be to report back on the issues they find are potential pegs to hang a policy on, and get the party working on agreed lines. They can't afford to take a Lib Dem attitude of pretending to be everything to everyone.
I completely disagree. UKIP have got where they are by not sounding like everyone else. Your advice - "be quiet, be competent; don't be controversial" would make them sound like everyone else. It is *only* by being controversial that they will be successful.
AveryLP - Major did actually win an election in 1992 Thatcher would have lost, and laid the grounds for the post-Thatcher settlement and a successful economy which Labour largely squandered
No. During the recent Thatcher-fest coverage, there was some 1990 era polling highlighted that showed the Conservative poll rating recovery already underway. So she would have won too.
AveryLP - Major did actually win an election in 1992 Thatcher would have lost, and laid the grounds for the post-Thatcher settlement and a successful economy which Labour largely squandered
British politics over the next two years is going to be about just one thing: whether Farage gets a place in the 2015 leaders' debate.
Cameron, Miliband and Clegg are absolutely determined that it won't happen because they rightly suspect that Farage might come across better than they will.
Well, some of us saw that coming at least five months ago:
I must admit Farage is a bit of an amateur seeing as he doesn't seem to live up to the prowess of the Foreign Secretary. I mean everyone knows to be a professional poltician you must wear a baseball cap and drink 14 pints a day.......
As I said earlier over the next 2 years the most important thing for UKIP is how their new councilors perform. They will now be judged as equals to the three "main" parties by the press, and 140 new councilors with little or no party machine to help, will find being a councilor challenging. I am sure that some colorful inexperienced characters have been elected today, a lot I expect didn't expect to win (especially the chap who didn't even go to the count). In the past Farage has only had a few MEPS and a tiny number of councilors to lead and control. That has all changed now and he has become very high profile. Some of his MEPs really let him down in the past and that was out of a very small number. What he doesn't need are a few of his new councilors mucking up. If they perform well then he can rightfully say that they are a serious party delivering for their constituents. If the press (who will be watching much more closely now) get their teeth into a number of UKIP councilors not performing as a councilor should then it will put Farage in a very difficult position. I don't think going to a pub and smiling will then work. I think Nick P mentioned earlier a previous UKIP councilor who had never even voted at a council meeting. I am sure that local issues are not the first thing on the mind of a typical UKIP councilor. You cannot withdraw from the EU or reduce immigration at a local level. It will be interesting.
The question is, have they planned for it? They need to ensure that new councillors are well supported with advice, starting with don't be controversial - be competent or be quiet. The next advice would be to report back on the issues they find are potential pegs to hang a policy on, and get the party working on agreed lines. They can't afford to take a Lib Dem attitude of pretending to be everything to everyone.
I completely disagree. UKIP have got where they are by not sounding like everyone else. Your advice - "be quiet, be competent; don't be controversial" would make them sound like everyone else. It is *only* by being controversial that they will be successful.
...as a protest party, David.
Which Tory council plurality will be brave enough to put them into office? And will the same maverick charm still apply?
It's an interesting suggestion, one worthy of further thought.
This looks like Nick Palmer's suggestion for what Cameron would do in 2017 / 2018 in the event that his original "get 27 other countries to pass a treaty, everybody loves passing treaties and it should only take 25 minutes or so" plan runs into practical difficulties. I'd have thought Cameron would want to save it for then - he'd look a bit of a doofus doing it twice.
The UKIP bubble should not be over-analysed too deeply. Just as the Greens doing (relatively) well in the past did not mean that Labour needed to lurch to them, UKIP doing (relatively) well does not mean that the Tories need to lurch that way either.
On many issues that have most upset some who've gone from Tories to UKIP (like gay marriage) the Tories are with the majority of the population and UKIP are not.
I must admit Farage is a bit of an amateur seeing as he doesn't seem to live up to the prowess of the Foreign Secretary. I mean everyone knows to be a professional poltician you must wear a baseball cap and drink 14 pints a day.......
Farage, like Milton's Lycidas, floats a watery beer.
RichardNavabi - True, Gove's reforms will help raise the average, but unless we have a few more grammar schools, and they should select at 16 as well as 11 and 13, then the state sector will never compete with the top independents, and short of the odd scholarship and bursary to a lucky few, meritocracy will remain stalled!
We don't need grammars. They existed at a time when secondary schools were a lot smaller than they are today. Grammars inevitably create secondary moderns and they inevitably get labelled sink-schools by the left who hate the idea of people not being equal.
A far better, but equally effective solution, is to stream within modern secondaries. You essentially have the grammar school *within* the secondary, which not only prevents the overt division of uniform and so on, but makes it easier to switch stream where that's appropriate.
Lot of nonsense being talked about Farage again. This is not the same Farage that flew a plane on election day in 2010. He has learned, improved and is considerably more deft in his appearances on the media. Those seemingly getting amusingly upset at the suggestion that he is a politician had best drop their fake outrage because that is precisely what he is.
He is not a skilled actor like a Blair or a Boris but he doesn't need to be. He just needs to be assured, jovial and on top of his brief. One similarity to Boris is that his jokey comic appeal makes him surprisingly invulnerable to the salacious stuff the party hatchet men used like the stripper story. That kind of story didn't work on Boris and it won't work on Farage.
@RichardNabavi GuidoFawkes @JGForsyth Was the same under Thatcher. Posh wets full of noblesse obilge, middle class Thatcherites who could connect with electorate.
Ted Heath was from an almost identical social background to Margaret Thatcher.
Were they equally capable of connecting with the electorate?
Ted Heath is not a popular figure, but he did win an election from behind in 1970, and a second one narrowly in 1974. He was not an electoral disaster at the time.
Ted Heath was also the driving force behind the Yes vote on EEC membership in 1975. This might not be something he's thanked for these days but it was nonetheless a significant political achievement of his given the public opinion before the campaigns started.
RichardNavabi - True, Gove's reforms will help raise the average, but unless we have a few more grammar schools, and they should select at 16 as well as 11 and 13, then the state sector will never compete with the top independents, and short of the odd scholarship and bursary to a lucky few, meritocracy will remain stalled!
We don't need grammars. They existed at a time when secondary schools were a lot smaller than they are today. Grammars inevitably create secondary moderns and they inevitably get labelled sink-schools by the left who hate the idea of people not being equal.
A far better, but equally effective solution, is to stream within modern secondaries. You essentially have the grammar school *within* the secondary, which not only prevents the overt division of uniform and so on, but makes it easier to switch stream where that's appropriate.
We definitely need streaming. The advantage of streaming is that it also allows people to change streams quicker and easier than changing school. Do well at 11 Maths? Top stream. Start to struggle, can move back.
You can also stream by subject - some should be in the top stream for Maths/Science but not English and vice-versa.
The key thing that needs to change is to make competition, success and failure not be dirty words. "Everyone's a winner" BS is a disaster.
It's an interesting suggestion, one worthy of further thought.
This looks like Nick Palmer's suggestion for what Cameron would do in 2017 / 2018 in the event that his original "get 27 other countries to pass a treaty, everybody loves passing treaties and it should only take 25 minutes or so" plan runs into practical difficulties. I'd have thought Cameron would want to save it for then - he'd look a bit of a doofus doing it twice.
So why did the Cameroons join the class war of the metropolitan bigots against the provincial wwc and traditional Conservatives ?
They didn't. They (correctly I think) sought to align the Conservative Party with the social attitudes of younger voters - think a 30-year old woman who works in a marketing role in Basildon.
Where they made a mistake (assuming it is a mistake) was in assuming too quickly that that they had carried traditional supporter opinion with them, and being rather contemptuous of those who hadn't followed them. I'll grant you that.
However - the future, and the votes, are still with the 30-year old woman from Basildon. So I think the blame for any divisions attaches equally to those who didn't see they needed to adapt.
But they didn't get the 30 year old woman did they.
It was the provincial wwc vote that they did get - not through their own efforts but because it was so angry with Labour - that put the Cameroons into government.
Now they've lost that provincial wwc vote plus they're losing traditional Conservative votes and they still haven't got your 30 year old woman who works in marketing.
And they ended up shouting abuse at potential and actually supporters.
So either they chose the wrong strategy or they were utterly incompetant in implementing it.
It's an interesting suggestion, one worthy of further thought.
A referendum, about having a referendum?
"I will be pressing again for a Mandate referendum to ask the voters soon if they want the government to negotiate a new relationship with the EU based on trade and poltical co-operation. "
The UKIP bubble should not be over-analysed too deeply. Just as the Greens doing (relatively) well in the past did not mean that Labour needed to lurch to them, UKIP doing (relatively) well does not mean that the Tories need to lurch that way either.
On many issues that have most upset some who've gone from Tories to UKIP (like gay marriage) the Tories are with the majority of the population and UKIP are not.
What was your "majority" yesterday? 25%
What did UKIP get? 23%
Brilliant.
You were the guy defending Ken Clarke's "clown" remarks, weren't you? Still feel like defending them today?
Yes.
Has Farage got where he has by being a totally-PC, never say anything mean about anyone, as uniform as everyone else politician?
@RichardNabavi GuidoFawkes @JGForsyth Was the same under Thatcher. Posh wets full of noblesse obilge, middle class Thatcherites who could connect with electorate.
Ted Heath was from an almost identical social background to Margaret Thatcher.
Were they equally capable of connecting with the electorate?
Ted Heath is not a popular figure, but he did win an election from behind in 1970, and a second one narrowly in 1974. He was not an electoral disaster at the time.
Ted Heath was also the driving force behind the Yes vote on EEC membership in 1975. This might not be something he's thanked for these days but it was nonetheless a significant political achievement of his given the public opinion before the campaigns started.
And for his trouble I believe something around 700,000 people ended their memberships (half the membership) with the Conservative Party. Heath lost more members than any other leader and started the process of perpetual decline in the party.
@RichardNabavi GuidoFawkes @JGForsyth Was the same under Thatcher. Posh wets full of noblesse obilge, middle class Thatcherites who could connect with electorate.
Some truth in that.
But that was then, and in recent years we'd more or less got over the obsession with class.
Now it's back. Thanks, One Nation Labour.
I don't think it's seen as 'class', really, these days. Even our betters have dumbed down.
Didn't Thatcher famously prefer "Estonians to Etonians" - i.e. clever Jews over posh boys? That doesn't tally with her elevating more OEs than anyone else.
Either way Cameron's cultivation of his fecking chinless chums is a PR disaster, and the fact he cannot see this, or is incapable of correcting his error, is the greatest condemnation of his non-existent political skills.
The Tory party must never again be led by an Old Etonian, they must, never again, be ruled by such a narrow cabal of rich, posh men. Because they can never win a majority with such an effete and elitist leadership.
UKIP, rightly or wrongly, are thriving because they are seen as Tories without the poshness. The lesson is painfully obvious.
I don't know whether the Thatcher / Old Etonians thing is true (IIRC, Macmillan had a load of Old Etonians in his cabinet), but if it is, I suspect it was more at the beginning of her premiership, when she was dealing with the cabinet more-or-less handed over by Heath, than that at the end.
I agree that Cameron should have a much more diverse No 10 in terms of social background, though I disagree that the next Tory leader should not be an Old Etonian. The right OE would be fine; the wrong one would just re-emphasise the problem.
The UKIP bubble should not be over-analysed too deeply. Just as the Greens doing (relatively) well in the past did not mean that Labour needed to lurch to them, UKIP doing (relatively) well does not mean that the Tories need to lurch that way either.
On many issues that have most upset some who've gone from Tories to UKIP (like gay marriage) the Tories are with the majority of the population and UKIP are not.
What was your "majority" yesterday? 25%
What did UKIP get? 23%
Brilliant.
You were the guy defending Ken Clarke's "clown" remarks, weren't you? Still feel like defending them today?
Yes.
Has Farage got where he has by being a totally-PC, never say anything mean about anyone, as uniform as everyone else politician?
I don't recall Farage abusing groups of voters he wanted to vote for his party. I think the moral of the story for Clarke is when in a hole stop digging! He was already the poster boy for everything that is wrong with our political elite (elitist, complacent, economically profligate, europhiliac, soft on crime and not without the wrong sort of background etc etc).
Abusing people whose votes your party actually wants (although granted Clarke would probably prefer to do without them) is just bad politics. Its just plain arrogant condescending stupidity.
Exactly. If you like referendums, you'll love referendums about referendums.
It works better when you've just come back from discussions with other EU governments and are explaining how you're shocked and astonished at their failure to immediately knock up a treaty changing the constitutional arrangements affecting 28 independent countries and get it past committee, upper and lower houses, constitutional court, presidential veto and possibly their own referendum. It buys you some time with your skeptics, who are getting a referendum even if it wasn't the one they wanted, and you can position it as a way of getting a mandate to light a fire under the arses of your dozy fellow member states.
The raisins and sultanas in fruitcakes can cause digestive problems to even-toed ungulates.
I would be frankly disappointed if such a loopy suggestion as a referendum on a referendum wasn't championed by yourself, Seth. As we were reminded recently you are indeed one of PB leading anti-tipsters and an excellent reminder to all of what laughably out of touch nonsense and spin looks like.
As I said earlier over the next 2 years the most important thing for UKIP is how their new councilors perform. They will now be judged as equals to the three "main" parties by the press, and 140 new councilors with little or no party machine to help, will find being a councilor challenging. I am sure that some colorful inexperienced characters have been elected today, a lot I expect didn't expect to win (especially the chap who didn't even go to the count). In the past Farage has only had a few MEPS and a tiny number of councilors to lead and control. That has all changed now and he has become very high profile. Some of his MEPs really let him down in the past and that was out of a very small number. What he doesn't need are a few of his new councilors mucking up. If they perform well then he can rightfully say that they are a serious party delivering for their constituents. If the press (who will be watching much more closely now) get their teeth into a number of UKIP councilors not performing as a councilor should then it will put Farage in a very difficult position. I don't think going to a pub and smiling will then work. I think Nick P mentioned earlier a previous UKIP councilor who had never even voted at a council meeting. I am sure that local issues are not the first thing on the mind of a typical UKIP councilor. You cannot withdraw from the EU or reduce immigration at a local level. It will be interesting.
The question is, have they planned for it? They need to ensure that new councillors are well supported with advice, starting with don't be controversial - be competent or be quiet. The next advice would be to report back on the issues they find are potential pegs to hang a policy on, and get the party working on agreed lines. They can't afford to take a Lib Dem attitude of pretending to be everything to everyone.
I completely disagree. UKIP have got where they are by not sounding like everyone else. Your advice - "be quiet, be competent; don't be controversial" would make them sound like everyone else. It is *only* by being controversial that they will be successful.
...as a protest party, David.
Which Tory council plurality will be brave enough to put them into office? And will the same maverick charm still apply?
Being a protest party is working fine for UKIP for the time being. Why change what's a winning formula.
As for office, I'd be surprised if any party put them in office yet given that they have no track record and there are no personal working relationships. How do you judge whether they're up to it, which matters if your own reputation is on the line too? That said, I can see informal pacts and understandings developing pretty quickly where circumstances make that beneficial.
I wonder how often and loudly SeanT complains about Nigel Farage insulting his opponents? Like that time he absolutely attacked Van Rompuy - did you think Farage should apologise for that and it'd make Van Rompuy more popular?
I don't think its the words that you object to its who they're said by and who they're aimed at.
That is one of the weakest essays the normally excellent M Parris has ever written. Devoid of real insight, entirely lacking an argument. It is just one long, epicene, self-pitying complaint that a new more populist Toryism might make the Tory party more popular (and slightly less commodious for metropolitan gays?).
Pfft.
Didn't Mr Parris have a column recently that suggested throwing the right wing of the Conservative Party, out of the party?
Exactly. If you like referendums, you'll love referendums about referendums.
It works better when you've just come back from discussions with other EU governments and are explaining how you're shocked and astonished at their failure to immediately knock up a treaty changing the constitutional arrangements affecting 28 independent countries and get it past committee, upper and lower houses, constitutional court, presidential veto and possibly their own referendum. It buys you some time with your skeptics, who are getting a referendum even if it wasn't the one they wanted, and you can position it as a way of getting a mandate to light a fire under the arses of your dozy fellow member states.
Or so the theory goes and I suspect it would work if one were driving the narrative and ahead of the curve. Problem is Cameron is behind the curve and being dragged along by the narrative at which point the optimum word becomes 'Sceptic'. Those who he is trying to impress know it is not his plan and he is being driven rather than driving, They know its only a ploy by him to buy him time. They are not sympathetic (he abused them after all). They just push him harder to see how much further he will go and how much more they can wring out of him.
I wonder how often and loudly SeanT complains about Nigel Farage insulting his opponents? Like that time he absolutely attacked Van Rompuy - did you think Farage should apologise for that and it'd make Van Rompuy more popular?
I don't think its the words that you object to its who they're said by and who they're aimed at.
Messrs Clarke and Cameron insulted UKIP supporters. The voters that the Conservatives need to win-over.
Attacking UKIP policies, or UKIP candidates would be a different thing.
Philip Thompson - There is no reason why we cannot select at 16 like the Finns do, or at least allow local parents to decide whether they want some grammar schools in their area, balloting to open them as well as close them
Or leave the EEA - but anyone who thinks an In/Out referendum can be won without a commitment to stay in in the EEA is far into La-La land.
As the SNP are finding, when push comes to shove, voters stay with nurse. They want comfort blankets.
Drivel. As Farage says, the EU referendum will be fought on migration. That means leaving the EEA ultimately, even if we stay in it as an intermediate step. A bilateral trade deal is what will replace it.
As for the SNP, the difference is that most Scots have an emotional attachment to Britain and thus want to maintain a political connection. Hardly any Britons feel an emotional attachment to Europe.
AnotherDave - No, Major only got a majority of 21 and the reason he got the leadership in 1990 was that Heseltine outpolled Thatcher at the time but Major matched Heseltine, Thatcher would not have got a majority in 1992
@RichardNabavi GuidoFawkes @JGForsyth Was the same under Thatcher. Posh wets full of noblesse obilge, middle class Thatcherites who could connect with electorate.
Ted Heath was from an almost identical social background to Margaret Thatcher.
Were they equally capable of connecting with the electorate?
Ted Heath is not a popular figure, but he did win an election from behind in 1970, and a second one narrowly in 1974. He was not an electoral disaster at the time.
Ted Heath was also the driving force behind the Yes vote on EEC membership in 1975. This might not be something he's thanked for these days but it was nonetheless a significant political achievement of his given the public opinion before the campaigns started.
And for his trouble I believe something around 700,000 people ended their memberships (half the membership) with the Conservative Party. Heath lost more members than any other leader and started the process of perpetual decline in the party.
I find that difficult to believe given that EEC membership was applied for under Macmillan, with Douglas-Home as Foreign Secretary and was achieved under Heath in 1972. Why Heath's leadership of a cross-party Yes campaign (with Thatcher supporting him) would then cause half the membership to resign in protest against a policy the party had championed for over a decade doesn't make obvious sense? Do you have a source for that assertion?
Your talk of 30 year old women in marketing brings to mind a previous attempt by your good self to convince me that the Cameron Project somewhere bore fruit.
Remember writing this two years ago ?
“I don’t necessarily disagree with you as regard the Midlands and North, but I think you’re not looking at the whole picture. Consider seats like Watford (a surprising gain) – middle England urban/suburban seats with lots of young people and some ethnic minorities (but not bastions of specific, bloc-Labour-voting ethnic minorities). There are lots of non-political, younger voters who simply would not have even considered voting Tory without Cameron’s detox strategy. What seems Guardianistish to you is completely normal, natural and uncontroversial to them.”
The response of Pete Whitehead, perhaps the leading expert at UKPR was:
“I find that Labour’s vote share has improved in West Watford, especially in Vicarage ward (+9%) also in Holywell and Central Watford all of which have substantial ethnic minority populations. They have also improved in the most middle class wards. On the other hand there is a group of wards in North Watford and Garston where their vote is down – by as much as 10% in Woodside, 8% in Tudor and Meriden and 7% in Leggatts. All these wards can be characterised as predominantly white, working class or middle income and with the exception of Tudor have a substantial amount of council built property. This pattern is not surprising and is noteworthy only in as much as it conforms to one which has become so well noted in other areas up and down the country.”
Even in Watford it was 'provincial wwc' who was winning the seats for the Conservatives not '30 year old marketing woman'.
And now that 'provincial wwc' vote has been lost by the Conservatives.
Not just on policy grounds.
Not even because the Conservative leadership couldn't be bothered to pretend an interest in them.
But because the Conservative leadership took pleasure in publicly showing their dislike of them.
SeanT - You both have a point, certainly Cameron has to move beyond his metropolitan clique, but Parris is also warning the Tories to avoid falling back to a 2001/2005 style 'core vote' strategy
AnotherDave - No, Major only got a majority of 21 and the reason he got the leadership in 1990 was that Heseltine outpolled Thatcher at the time but Major matched Heseltine, Thatcher would not have got a majority in 1992
The second slide in the link below shows the Government/Thatcher recovering from the poll tax nadir, before she was ousted.
Being a protest party is working fine for UKIP for the time being. Why change what's a winning formula.
As for office, I'd be surprised if any party put them in office yet given that they have no track record and there are no personal working relationships. How do you judge whether they're up to it, which matters if your own reputation is on the line too? That said, I can see informal pacts and understandings developing pretty quickly where circumstances make that beneficial.
This from a party who invited into government a party who had not had a minister for 80 years. Of course there is wisdom in hindsight........
Comments
Like anything else in life, being a politician who doesn't do what he thinks but plays to what he thinks the public want, and fails anyway, must lead to a lifetime if "what ifs?"
But that was then, and in recent years we'd more or less got over the obsession with class.
Now it's back. Thanks, One Nation Labour.
The nurse being the SNP government in Edinburgh, and the comfort blankets being required to protect against the unbridled Thatcherism that would be on its way without independence.
Agreed. That is what the SNP are finding.
I don't think it's seen as 'class', really, these days. Even our betters have dumbed down.
Luckily Michael Gove is doing a fantastic job putting in place the measures needed to reverse this doleful trend. Let's hope he's given enough time to finish the job; I'm more optimistic today than I was a couple of days ago.
She's just loving the attention ;-)
Don't be deceived.
"Your report is an inaccurate travesty. Nick Robinson, who seemed to be particularly fired up anti-UKIP, did not say this. Please correct it."
Forgive my inaccuracy. I was making reference to the thread that Mike had up which I assumed everyone had seen. I wasn't making a point about the original poll just that it was interesting that Nick Robinson had used the same very telling but unusual bit of polling to make the interesting anti establishment point. I can't remember whether it was twice or ten times-and it doesn't matter.
Blue on blues ;-)
Well, a system that guarantees the party with the most votes nationally also get the most seats would be a start...
David Cameron must speed up his plans for a referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union, more than 100 Tory MPs have said.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9967069/David-Cameron-must-make-EU-referendum-promise-more-believable-Tory-MPs-urge.html
'Yes, hats off to the Labour media manipulators. They've done brilliantly well bringing class divisiveness - which had more or less died out in the UK'
Labour have nothing else to say or offer,oppose everything,a blank piece of paper for policy,just try to stoke up class hatred.And pretend to be a progressive party.
NadineDorriesMP Con MPs took more time off for parliament trips abroad and ski ing trips than I did. If they went to the right schools, they were fine.
There were more Etonians in her cabinet than in any other post WWII cabinet before or after her.
It's something in the way they move. Evidently.
UKIP supporters want a referendum. They don't want to campaign for one, they want to have a referendum.
If the government actually called a referendum, then that aspect of UKIP's appeal would cease.
Ind 1317
SNP 525
Lab 417
Con 203
Ind hold
Scottish Borders UA -Leaderdale & Melrose
Con 956
The Borders Party 814
LD 744
SNP 613
Lab 235
UKIP 105
UKIP transfers:
30 to Borders, 19 to Con, 12 to LD, 10 to SNP, 3 to Lab
31 not transferables
Lab eliminated. Transfers:
60 to LD, 56 to Borders, 43 to SNP, 7 to Con
72 non transferable
SNP eliminated. Transfers:
218 to Borders, 167 to LD, 56 to Con
225 no transferable
LD eliminated. Transfers:
326 to Borders, 245 to Con
412 non transferables
Borders Party 1444
Con 1283
Borders Hold
Modern politicians seem to have that weakness of wanting to be perpetually liked in a rather pathetic way. They need to be a bit more thick skinned, they are trying to run a country, not host a dinner party. It is quite a paradox that Farage is liked, through making no concessions to popular tastes. he is his own man.
In truth, he is a very successful media tart.
Otherwise agree on Heath and Thatcher.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2319221/DAN-HODGES-Red-Ed-marches-left-just-voters-moving-right.html?ITO=socialnet-twitter-maildebate&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=socialnet-twitter-maildebate
Surely no-one seriously thought that he always has a pint in his hand even if there's no camera around, and that he believes all that tosh about Cameron?
From the Mail:
Association of Former Members of Parliament wants taxpayer support
Calls for public money to pay for speaking tours to students and charities
Also demands a chance to debate in the Commons again
Ex-MPs offered a £199 gold-plated medal for contribution to British politics
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2318189/Ex-MPs-demand-public-money-tour-country-chance-return-Commons-annual-debate.html
If the government actually called a referendum, then that aspect of UKIP's appeal would cease.?
No, UKIP voters generally want to withdraw from the EU. The referendum is a potential means (it is not the only one) to that end. If that means does not lead to that end then a referendum is of no value. It is debatable whether there is any likelihood that a Cameron inspired referendum would lead to withdrawal from the EU. Given his allegiance to that institution it is more likely that everything will be managed to ensure the Prime Minister gets the result he wants which is to remain in the EU. Do UKIP supporters want to remain in the EU. No.
'KirstyBuchanan4 Chuka Umunna claims on Newsnight that Labour has "absolutely" got back support in the south - then talks about Sherwood, in Nottinghamshire.'
Chuka making a fool of himself again,there's a surprise.
I'm happy to be corrected, of course. Maybe there is nothing more to Farage than what you describe.
It is that failure to understand Farage that preplexes so many tory eurosceptics. Most of them are not eurosceptics to Farage unless they are BOOers. Farage wants to make the entire tory party BOO and he requires no MPs to do so. Just patience if things keep going as they are. With the tory party leadership campaigning to stay IN and the resulting tory split and carnage played out in excruciating slow motion car crash detail for the voter? Oh I'm sure the kippers would absolutely HATE that prospect.
LOL
Pull the other one.
Sean, it matters not a toss. Churchill was an Harrovian. Cameron is the nineteenth Etonian PM. But we have also had a son of trapeze artist and the daughter of a provincial grocer.
Prime Ministers succeed on their personality and achievements. Some Etonians will have it, others won't. A grocer's daughter did, a circus performer's son didn't.
"See on elu" as they say in Estonia.
So why did the Cameroons join the class war of the metropolitan bigots against the provincial wwc and traditional Conservatives ?
Not only very divisive to society but electorally disasterous for the Conservatives.
Is this really what they teach on those Oxford PPE courses?
I get the impression that he's going to the pub and the press pack follows. He doesn't invite them up to his place for an awkward Guinness photoshoot.
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2013/05/02/we-need-a-mandate-referendum/
It's an interesting suggestion, one worthy of further thought.
This tweet from 1130am was fantastic
at half eleven RT @VMcAVSKY: Say what you like about #ukip's @Nigel_Farage but he can down a pint quickly pic.twitter.com/rEQPpUE9Rx
'This is exactly what posh people wanted to happen when grammar schools were abolished. Most of them supported getting rid of them because they knew that a few decades later they'd be back running the country again as they always had in previous times.'
Evidence?
Where they made a mistake (assuming it is a mistake) was in assuming too quickly that that they had carried traditional supporter opinion with them, and being rather contemptuous of those who hadn't followed them. I'll grant you that.
However - the future, and the votes, are still with the 30-year old woman from Basildon. So I think the blame for any divisions attaches equally to those who didn't see they needed to adapt.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article3756070.ece?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
But he was no Thatcher.
http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/12/01/should-the-party-without-a-single-mp-be-given-a-place-in-the-tv-debates/
(The title wasn't the one I gave the piece)
Which Tory council plurality will be brave enough to put them into office? And will the same maverick charm still apply?
On many issues that have most upset some who've gone from Tories to UKIP (like gay marriage) the Tories are with the majority of the population and UKIP are not.
A far better, but equally effective solution, is to stream within modern secondaries. You essentially have the grammar school *within* the secondary, which not only prevents the overt division of uniform and so on, but makes it easier to switch stream where that's appropriate.
He is not a skilled actor like a Blair or a Boris but he doesn't need to be. He just needs to be assured, jovial and on top of his brief. One similarity to Boris is that his jokey comic appeal makes him surprisingly invulnerable to the salacious stuff the party hatchet men used like the stripper story. That kind of story didn't work on Boris and it won't work on Farage.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31FFTx6AKmU
I hear they are selecting candidates for the next election:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TSqkdcT25ss
You can also stream by subject - some should be in the top stream for Maths/Science but not English and vice-versa.
The key thing that needs to change is to make competition, success and failure not be dirty words. "Everyone's a winner" BS is a disaster.
Not for tactical reasons, but because it is politically honest.
Cameron and Hague should not try to hide their positions as EU reformers first and only deserters as a final resort.
I also agree with Redwood that it is sellable to the Lib Dems. It certainly fits in with the FCO's Audit of EU Competences.
It was the provincial wwc vote that they did get - not through their own efforts but because it was so angry with Labour - that put the Cameroons into government.
Now they've lost that provincial wwc vote plus they're losing traditional Conservative votes and they still haven't got your 30 year old woman who works in marketing.
And they ended up shouting abuse at potential and actually supporters.
So either they chose the wrong strategy or they were utterly incompetant in implementing it.
Or both.
"I will be pressing again for a Mandate referendum to ask the voters soon if they want the government to negotiate a new relationship with the EU based on trade and poltical co-operation. "
Has Farage got where he has by being a totally-PC, never say anything mean about anyone, as uniform as everyone else politician?
I agree that Cameron should have a much more diverse No 10 in terms of social background, though I disagree that the next Tory leader should not be an Old Etonian. The right OE would be fine; the wrong one would just re-emphasise the problem.
The raisins and sultanas in fruitcakes can cause digestive problems to even-toed ungulates.
Abusing people whose votes your party actually wants (although granted Clarke would probably prefer to do without them) is just bad politics. Its just plain arrogant condescending stupidity.
It works better when you've just come back from discussions with other EU governments and are explaining how you're shocked and astonished at their failure to immediately knock up a treaty changing the constitutional arrangements affecting 28 independent countries and get it past committee, upper and lower houses, constitutional court, presidential veto and possibly their own referendum. It buys you some time with your skeptics, who are getting a referendum even if it wasn't the one they wanted, and you can position it as a way of getting a mandate to light a fire under the arses of your dozy fellow member states.
As for office, I'd be surprised if any party put them in office yet given that they have no track record and there are no personal working relationships. How do you judge whether they're up to it, which matters if your own reputation is on the line too? That said, I can see informal pacts and understandings developing pretty quickly where circumstances make that beneficial.
I don't think its the words that you object to its who they're said by and who they're aimed at.
Autotuned version of Farage's quotes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TpYIKF1wuyE
Attacking UKIP policies, or UKIP candidates would be a different thing.
As for the SNP, the difference is that most Scots have an emotional attachment to Britain and thus want to maintain a political connection. Hardly any Britons feel an emotional attachment to Europe.
Your talk of 30 year old women in marketing brings to mind a previous attempt by your good self to convince me that the Cameron Project somewhere bore fruit.
Remember writing this two years ago ?
“I don’t necessarily disagree with you as regard the Midlands and North, but I think you’re not looking at the whole picture. Consider seats like Watford (a surprising gain) – middle England urban/suburban seats with lots of young people and some ethnic minorities (but not bastions of specific, bloc-Labour-voting ethnic minorities). There are lots of non-political, younger voters who simply would not have even considered voting Tory without Cameron’s detox strategy. What seems Guardianistish to you is completely normal, natural and uncontroversial to them.”
The response of Pete Whitehead, perhaps the leading expert at UKPR was:
“I find that Labour’s vote share has improved in West Watford, especially in Vicarage ward (+9%) also in Holywell and Central Watford all of which have substantial ethnic minority populations. They have also improved in the most middle class wards.
On the other hand there is a group of wards in North Watford and Garston where their vote is down – by as much as 10% in Woodside, 8% in Tudor and Meriden and 7% in Leggatts. All these wards can be characterised as predominantly white, working class or middle income and with the exception of Tudor have a substantial amount of council built property.
This pattern is not surprising and is noteworthy only in as much as it conforms to one which has become so well noted in other areas up and down the country.”
Even in Watford it was 'provincial wwc' who was winning the seats for the Conservatives not '30 year old marketing woman'.
And now that 'provincial wwc' vote has been lost by the Conservatives.
Not just on policy grounds.
Not even because the Conservative leadership couldn't be bothered to pretend an interest in them.
But because the Conservative leadership took pleasure in publicly showing their dislike of them.
SeanT - You both have a point, certainly Cameron has to move beyond his metropolitan clique, but Parris is also warning the Tories to avoid falling back to a 2001/2005 style 'core vote' strategy
http://www.slideshare.net/IpsosMORI/margaret-thatcher-poll-rating-trends
I seem to recall some ICM polling, but I can't find the link (search engines just bring up endless articles about the poll tax!)