You can't have 4 people with massive inputs in to messaging. Otherwise you end up with the confused nonsense the Tories have had as a response to UKIP. Amazingly they seem to have got the worst possible combination.
Bigging them up with anti EU skirt lifting and then a ham fisted publicity generating attack in the last week. That was Shapps's fault and he should go for it.
The other really funny thing about today is that it will probably cost the Tory party at least another 1,000 members. That and a load of internal resources as they deal with the tanks on their own lawn.
You really can't underestimate how the ever decreasing number of Tory members is killing the party.
For the sake of argument if the underlying contest is between
1) national capitalist + small c social conservative
or
2) international capitalist + socially liberal
what percentage of the current Tory vote would be more comfortable in option 1? I'd guess at least 1/2. What percentage of Ukippers would be more comfortable in option 2? I'd guess about zero (although that doesn't mean they wouldn't go back in a forced choice but it would be reluctant.)
So...Ukip don't need to be thinking about pacts (except locally). They need to just keep kicking and more of the current Tory vote will crumble their way.
Labour 29%, Conservative 25%, UKIP 23%, LD 14%, Other 9%. Clearly a big result for UKIP but time will tell if this was the peak of their performance as it was for the SDP in 1983 and the Greens in 1989 or if they have really 'broken the mould' of British politics!
Some twit put Chuka-Trash in charge of a key portfolio. Plus Balls et al and you're talking about election chances?!
It's the economy. You know it's the economy, I know it's the economy - tha's the key to winning back most of the UKIP defectors (there is a measure of agreement on how to tackle these). And yesterday's vote has done nothing to induce pessimism about 2015 on my part. But you? Hmmm
Weird stat. In 2009 Labour lost 291 seats. In 2013 they have gained 291 seats (according to the BBC- do your own maths). So they are back to the glory days of 2005 (except they control 2 fewer councils).
That is 2005, middle of the Iraq war, toxic Tony, tory party led by someone of the night (allegedly). It is not much of an achievement to not quite match that is it?
These elections give Labour the opportunity to present a our One Nation vision on the doorstep, and if we get this right, we should expect to pick up a fair few seats. A good result for Labour would see us taking back the majority of the 291 [!!!] councillors we lost in 2009. A great result would be taking back control of key areas in the East Midlands and making inroads in some of the many Tory strongholds, such as Kent, Essex and Hertfordshire. With this in mind, here are the 14 councils that Labour should be watching on Thursday.
Overall i'd say below par. What do Labour people think?
Cumbria - in 2009 Labour lost 15 seats, gained 10 today, still NOC (below par)
Derbyshire - Labour lost 16 councillors in 2009, gained 18 today and control of the council (par)
Durham - increase in a stronghold (par)
Essex - lost 12 seats here in 2009, gained 8 today (below par)
Kent - lost 18 seats in 2009, gained 11 today (below par)
Lancashire - lost 27 seats in Lancs in 2009, gained 23 today. Largest party but NOC (below par)
Lincolnshire - 15 seats lost in 2009, 8 regained today (below par)
Norfolk - lost 19 councillors in 2009, gained 11 today (below par)
Northamptonshire - lost 14 councillors in 2009, gained 7 today and still Tory controlled (below par)
Northumberland - new unitary in 2008, largest party now instead of LD (par)
Nottinghamshire - lost control of the council in 2009, after losing 22 seats. Regained 21 seats and control of council (par)
Staffordshire - lost control of the council in 2009 after losing 29 seats, plus 21 today but still Tory controlled (below par)
Suffolk - lost 18 councillors in 2009, gained 11 today (below par)
Warwickshire - in 2009 Labour lost 12 councillors, regained 12 today (par)
Weird stat. In 2009 Labour lost 291 seats. In 2013 they have gained 291 seats (according to the BBC- do your own maths). So they are back to the glory days of 2005 (except they control 2 fewer councils).
That is 2005, middle of the Iraq war, toxic Tony, tory party led by someone of the night (allegedly). It is not much of an achievement to not quite match that is it?
It's a majority winning position just three years after defeat. I can think of worse things.
The voters message to David Cameron and the Conservative Party
KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON GOVERNING
And that with the exceptions of Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire and with the formation of coalitions in the councils which have reverted to NOC is what the Conservative Party will do.
Weird stat. In 2009 Labour lost 291 seats. In 2013 they have gained 291 seats (according to the BBC- do your own maths). So they are back to the glory days of 2005 (except they control 2 fewer councils).
That is 2005, middle of the Iraq war, toxic Tony, tory party led by someone of the night (allegedly). It is not much of an achievement to not quite match that is it?
It's a majority winning position just three years after defeat. I can think of worse things.
But Jonathan in 2005 people were already getting tired of Blair who won the election that year with what I think is the smallest share ever to give a majority. You are in opposition now, to a government who have struggled for years to cope with what they were given by Brown. And you can't do any better? Against the fops, the incompetents, the flatlining, a hostile press and where UKIP are tearing lumps off the tories?
It is a terrible performance and Mike must be having a laugh.
I still think Labour performance is incredibly lacklustre and I find it increasingly far fetched that they will even be the largest party in a hung parliament on this display.
@tim. A measly, nugatory almost invisible 4% lead, tim, 4%. Oh dear, your heart really isn't in it tonight. Take an evening off, funny fella.
We just need to get tim a light blue bow tie and some ivory facings for his tailcoat lapels and then he can release his inner Tory child from captivity.
It will be interesting to see what the 3 main parties do as a result of this election, if anything.
My advice to David Cameron would be as follows: He needs to be seen to be doing something about UKIP. There is no point pledging to cut immigration when Bulgarians and Romanians will be arriving next year. Any attempt to pledge a referendum next parliament is simply not credible.
Instead he should go to parliament on Monday (or when it is next open) and put down a bill for an in/out referendum this autumn. Then dare Labour/LDs to vote it down. He could stay above the fray and allow his MPs to campaign for whichever side they choose.This could then pan out 3 ways:
1) It is voted down. Cameron can unite the right by saying only more Con MPs can deliver on a referendum. Also can blame Lab/LD if Romanian/Bulgarian immigration is high. 2) The vote happens and UK votes to leave. UKIP loses its raison d'etre. Cons can actually put stuff like leaving the ECHR in their manifesto and potentially deliver. 3) The vote happens and UK votes to stay. The right won't be happy but it takes some of the sting out of the issue.
The only downside is the LDs won't be happy but it will look bad for them if they allow a referendum on AV but not the EU and there have already been plenty of coalition spats.
All in all seems to be more upside than downside for Cameron.
A referendum could also work as a strategy for Ed Miliband too "I believe we should be part of the EU but people deserve a say. I believe we should have a referendum and I look forward to making the case for the EU". Would cause Government splits and cause Cameron problems. Perhaps more risky though for Miliband.
Either way with talk of a backbench bill coming it would certainly be better for either leader to make the running. Doubt very much either would do it though.
I think Staffordshire can be chalked up as a good result for the Conservatives. It's been Labour for all but 8 of the last 40 years and although they gained 21 seats today, it is still Conservative controlled and Labour are 8 seats short of a majority.
@tim. Now let's not get petulant. I appreciate as a plastic pol you don't get out and about much but that's rather your problem not mine.
The Great Oration has thus far succeeded (beyond even my expectations) in preventing the Tory party from tearing itself to pieces on Europe. It must continue to hold its nerve. I think it will.
< We just need to get tim a light blue bow tie and some ivory facings for his tailcoat lapels and then he can release his inner Tory child from captivity.
tim is far too right wing for me, what with his slashing of benefits for the most vulnerable in our society.
"I still think Labour performance is incredibly lacklustre and I find it increasingly far fetched that they will even be the largest party in a hung parliament on this display."
EdM is even more boring and lacklustre than Italy's leftist flop Bersani. Labour has always been unfit for government , it's now looking increasingly unfit for opposition.
Nonsense. All that would happen is that the unpopularity (which is based on a denial of reality) would rapidly transfer to the new leader,
If nothing else, one thing yesterday has shown is that it is the Cameroons who are in denial of reality.
Don't you know its the responsibility of reality to conform itself to the requirements of the Notting Hill dinner party and the Chipping Norton country supper.
I think Staffordshire can be chalked up as a good result for the Conservatives. It's been Labour for all but 8 of the last 40 years and although they gained 21 seats today, it is still Conservative controlled and Labour are 8 seats short of a majority.
A bright beacon which shines its disinfecting light onto the shameful doubters both South and East of its borders.
The serious question is here how long will FPTP last.
It won't go immediately. The Tories don't seem to be smart enough to realise what its about to do to them. But maybe in 10 - 15 years time they will change.
FPTP probably has another generation in it. Then its gone.
My ideal scenario for the last 10 years or so is that the Lib Dems would develop to overtake Labour and offer a sane, safe alternative opposition to the tories with Labour rotting in the hell that they belong in. That is obviously not going to happen.
Looking further afield it seems to me that Cameron's tories fit very comfortably with America's Democrats. Think of their position on gay marriage, abortion, gun control, health spending, even the size of the state these days. Could UKIP become our republican party? Will politics reshape itself to the right with the left drawn into a tory tent to stop an even more right wing party?
Proof that Natalie Bennett, leader of the Greens, said that at the end of the day the Greens would have more councillors than UKIP: Now she's squirming, like all the others.
...........Instead he should go to parliament on Monday (or when it is next open) and put down a bill for an in/out referendum this autumn. Then dare Labour/LDs to vote it down. He could stay above the fray and allow his MPs to campaign for whichever side they choose.This could then pan out 3 ways:.......
The problem is that everyone knows that Labour and LD's will vote it down. So even if Cameron does it it will be perceived (particularly by those with no faith in him) as just more gesture politics.
This is Cameron's biggest problem in terms of PR stunts and gesture politics he is the boy who cried wolf and anything he does will be interpeted in those terms and likely get little traction.
The Tories have been screwed for quite a while except they didn't realise it and still don't really accept it or understand it.
Proof that Natalie Bennet, leader of the Greens, said that at the end of the day the Greens would have more councillors than UKIP:
You see that would have been a respectable enough thing to say (it was a close run thing). Her problem was that she said they win more on the day itself. Which, a day beforehand, was clearly bonkers. Maybe she meant to say the former but said the latter by accident.
UKIP's success yesterday has little to do with Europe. I think another_richard has a better grip on the root causes of the disgruntlement, even if I don't agree with him on much else.
Richard, I agree with him also, but UKIP despise Cameron and his chums, he has driven the disaffected right wing to UKIP by conceding too easily to Lib Dems over pet hates like wind farms, ECHR reforms/withdrawal and a host of other small irritations. It's the sum of these that has driven a large portion of UKIP's rise, as well as bread and butter immigration issues from EU nations. While DC can't control EU immigration and the entry of other nations into the EU and he was lumbered with Labour's poor deal in that respect, he should be more sensitive to EU based immigration from poor nations rather than going on about non-EU migration. Even Farage said today that he would exempt students from the migration figures, but there's an easy win for the government they still refuse to take. Exempt the students and start to admit that EU immigration is a problem, the Cameroons won't do this and that irritates a lot of people and drives them to UKIP.
The fact that the Cameroons are absolutely and utterly blind to the EU immigration issue and keep talking about net non-EU migration shows that they are completely missing the point and why UKIP are doing so well.
You remain in denial and watch the Cons lose the next election to Labour while UKIP splits the right wing vote.
@IOS - Incredible Labour results in Cornwall. Beyond amazing. Certainly overshadows UKIP's tiny advances. With strategists like you on the job (sic), and armed with your mighty algi-rythmns, will Ed even have any opposition to face in the next Parliament? Go for the 100% clean sweep - it's within your grasp.
...........Instead he should go to parliament on Monday (or when it is next open) and put down a bill for an in/out referendum this autumn. Then dare Labour/LDs to vote it down. He could stay above the fray and allow his MPs to campaign for whichever side they choose.This could then pan out 3 ways:.......
The problem is that everyone knows that Labour and LD's will vote it down. So even if Cameron does it it will be perceived (particularly by those with no faith in him) as just more gesture politics.
This is Cameron's biggest problem in terms of PR stunts and gesture politics he is the boy who cried wolf and anything he does will be interpeted in those terms and likely get little traction.
The Tories have been screwed for quite a while except they didn't realise it and still don't really accept it or understand it.
In 2011 111 MPs voted in favour of a referendum. 30 non-Conservatives.
Surely with this result and the likelyy very good Euro elections result, it would be scandalous to exclude Farage from the 2015 Leadership debates ..... although none of the other three leaders can look forward to inserting cigarette papers between their respective politically correct chops.
I mentioned the February 1974 election a few days back as a plague on all your houses election. Its great to see the political establishment in such a pickle - and they well and truly deserve it. I personally loathe some of UKIP's policies - such as doubling the prison population, and committing to vastly increased expenditure on defence when the resources are simply not there. But at this moment in time my vote is most likely to go there, such is my disgust with the establishment right now. Am about to pore over the results in detail. My initial impressions:
Labour - terrible terrible result to secure just 29% projected national share. If they can't win in places like Tamworth, and can't do as well as they did in 2005 at comparable elections, then that says it all. Even South Shields and on the leader's patch in Doncaster showed no enthusiasm - a barely budged vote share in their heartland is a very poor sign.
LibDems - awful where they don't have any representation, but holding up better where they are the incumbents. 56 or 57 by-elections at the next GE, and forget any target seats. Their MP's will be much harder to shift than the current polls indicate.
Conservatives - very poor indeed, but relatively less bad given expectations than arguably Labour or the LibDems. Awful vote share, but 4% behind your principal opponent, given midterm etc - most of the Conservative local base is still largely intact.
UKIP - their day in the sun obviously, but how will they bear up to the closer scrutiny coming up? Can they become more than a largely one man band? The timing of the next economic Eurogasm I think could really play into their hands, and the 2014 Euro elections are a mouthwatering prospect right now, particularly if events play into their hands as I think they may over the next 12 months. There is a huge question where they really target for seats at the next GE - I agree with comments below that on the face of it run down coastal towns with large immigration offer the best hope eg Great Yarmouth, Boston & Skegness, the 2 Thanet seats. Presumably they'll throw everything at Eastleigh but I still don't think they can win there with the LD activist base. I also think they'd be better targeting their resources all out at about a dozen identified seats if resources allow, rather than get too greedy like the LibDems got at the last GE.
The next 2 years are going to be one heck of a political ride - bring it on!!
North Yorkshire country areas never change though from Conservative.
But UKIP gained a foothold on the coast I believe taking a seat in Filey.
Thanks old chap.
Its been a great day and a thoroughly enjoyable one. I am still one of those who thinks that UKIP will be hard pressed to win a seat at the GE but for the first time ever I do start to think it might be possible under favourable conditions (the right seat and the right candidate being the main factors that could swing it.)
Accepting that each round in the quadrennial set of elections is not exactly comparable with the previous round,
- Con is behind their 2005 total but only by a few dozen seats out of well over two thousand. - Lab has exactly reversed their losses in 2009 (291 councillors). - LD are down to a level they've not been at since last century. - Even excluding UKIP, 'Others' - perhaps surprisingly given the triumph of Farage's troops - have about double the number in 2005.
Which, put bluntly, means that in the mid-term of a Con-LD government, Labour is only back where they were at the time that Blair scraped back for his third term. It's not exactly a spectacular success.
1) Hung parliament in 2015 2) Lib-Lab coalition with Ed M becoming PM 3) They pass electoral reform for a STV system 4) The initial lefty euphoria fades away as cuts have to made, lots of talk of betrayal etc. Labour alienates voters on the left, and the lack of any positive support for EdM to begin with also means the centre drifts away 5) Lib Dems largely tread water for five years in terms of support 5) They deny us an EU referendum and look even more like scheming elitist politicians 6) 2020 election held under STV returns a hung parliament 7) Tories and UKIP have enough MPs to get a majority, they form a coalition with a promise of an EU referendum 8) The UK votes to leave around 2022 9) Freedom!
The real good news of the day has been overshadowed by the local elections.
DavidL has already noted the large increase in Markit's UK Service Sector PMIs in April, but it is worth quoting Markit's Chief Economist, Chris Williamson, on the implications of the rise for the economy in general.
“A broad-based improvement is becoming evident in the UK economy, greatly reducing the likelihood of the Bank of England seeing any need to increase its asset purchases in the immediate future.
“The upturn is being led by the service sector, but it has been accompanied by signs of activity stabilising in manufacturing and construction in April. The weighted PMI from the three surveys rose from 51.0 in March to 52.1, its highest since last August and signalling an increase in business activity for the fourth month running.
"The data suggest that the return to growth enjoyed by the economy in the first quarter persisted and may have gained momentum at the start of the second quarter.
“With the economy showing signs of gaining momentum and inflation running well ahead of target at 2.8%, the latest PMI data kills off the likelihood of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voting for more asset purchases at its May meeting. The Bank instead looks set to watch the data flow over coming months and, in particular, to await further evidence of the impact of the newly extended Funding for Lending Scheme, which is now showing real signs of boosting lending to both households and SMEs, which has been one of the root causes of the disappointing recovery to date.”
Rather better news for all of us than a change of control in a county council.
So this was meant to be EdM's great day , when he finally emerged as a credible leading man. But all his scenes have been stolen by Nigel Farage. Farage has been like Alan Rickman up against wooden Ed's Costner and Willis. Out-classed.
It's odd how UKIP haven't made any impact or effort in counties like Worcestershire and Warwickshire. I think it's more to do with poor organisation rather than a lack of potential support.
...........Instead he should go to parliament on Monday (or when it is next open) and put down a bill for an in/out referendum this autumn. Then dare Labour/LDs to vote it down. He could stay above the fray and allow his MPs to campaign for whichever side they choose.This could then pan out 3 ways:.......
The problem is that everyone knows that Labour and LD's will vote it down. So even if Cameron does it it will be perceived (particularly by those with no faith in him) as just more gesture politics.
This is Cameron's biggest problem in terms of PR stunts and gesture politics he is the boy who cried wolf and anything he does will be interpeted in those terms and likely get little traction.
The Tories have been screwed for quite a while except they didn't realise it and still don't really accept it or understand it.
Well if they'll vote it down there is no harm in putting it down. It would at least please hsi own MPs. Interestingly the Guardian politics as similar thinking
5. Cameron will find it hard to resist pressure to bring in legislation for an EU referendum before 2015. It is difficult to see how this would happen, because the Lib Dems would try to block any government bill on this, but conceivably Cameron could try another route, like backbench legislation. Given what Tory MPs have been saying on this, doing nothing does not seem to be an option. And any attempt to put this issue to a vote would create a dilemma for Ed Miliband, who has so far tried to remain non-commital on a referendum.
...........Instead he should go to parliament on Monday (or when it is next open) and put down a bill for an in/out referendum this autumn. Then dare Labour/LDs to vote it down. He could stay above the fray and allow his MPs to campaign for whichever side they choose.This could then pan out 3 ways:.......
The problem is that everyone knows that Labour and LD's will vote it down. So even if Cameron does it it will be perceived (particularly by those with no faith in him) as just more gesture politics.
This is Cameron's biggest problem in terms of PR stunts and gesture politics he is the boy who cried wolf and anything he does will be interpeted in those terms and likely get little traction.
The Tories have been screwed for quite a while except they didn't realise it and still don't really accept it or understand it.
Well if they'll vote it down there is no harm in putting it down. It would at least please hsi own MPs. Interestingly the Guardian politics as similar thinking
5. Cameron will find it hard to resist pressure to bring in legislation for an EU referendum before 2015. It is difficult to see how this would happen, because the Lib Dems would try to block any government bill on this, but conceivably Cameron could try another route, like backbench legislation. Given what Tory MPs have been saying on this, doing nothing does not seem to be an option. And any attempt to put this issue to a vote would create a dilemma for Ed Miliband, who has so far tried to remain non-commital on a referendum.
Surely as the 2015 election approaches, Cameron and his chums will _want_ to do whatever they can to attract UKIP supporters.
It seems to me that the consequence of a rise in the UKIP vote is to unbalance the Tory vote so it no longer simply piles up in the shires. Therefore the UNS proposition may be a long way from correct.
@SeanT,did you see farage on the news with cig in gob walking down street ;-) what a guy,which other of the party leaders would you see doing that,we have Cameron/clegg pretending they don't smoke or not to be seen smoking.
The man goes against the grain of the modern day tv made politician.
Am I the only one who thinks labour did fantastic,the projected national vote share of 29% in what were mostly true blue parts of the country ;-)
I have been drinking,so be gentle with me ;-)
Had Labour *actually* scored 29% in the elections, it would have been a creditable result (though still not overwhelming) - with a pre-2010 'normal' other scores of about 10%, it would still leave a Con/LD split of something like Con 43, LD 23. However, it's not. The 29% is calculated on what Labour *would have* received had the whole country voted yesterday.
@SeanT,did you see farage on the news with cig in gob walking down street ;-) what a guy,which other of the party leaders would you see doing that,we have Cameron/clegg pretending they don't smoke or not to be seen smoking.
I wonder if Farage could capture the addicted-smokers' and the "I-like-an-occasional-cigar" vote.
It's odd how UKIP haven't made any impact or effort in counties like Worcestershire and Warwickshire. I think it's more to do with poor organisation rather than a lack of potential support.
UKIP got >600 second place results. Perhaps they just fell short?
I'm really looking forward to the weekend papers. Think they are going to be very uncomfortable Cameron.
They should be excoriating for Osbrowne. He is, after all, the master strategist. He's not just a toxic liability who has the bar set so low that the inept tory spinners were wetting themselves with glee that avoiding a triple dip recession was somehow a triumph for him. Had there been a triple dip these self same spinners would of course then go on to claim that avoiding a quadruple dip is a sign of omnishambles Osborne's "genius". He really is that crap, as are they.
The real problem for the tories is very simple indeed. Cameron doesn't want to win enough. He just doesn't have the killer instinct. It shouldn't be that much of a surprise since he failed to win a majority in 2010 so had to go running to Clegg to save him.
If Cammie didn't treat government like a jolly club and wheeze for his chums then he might have the balls to get rid of a toxic liability like Osbrowne and get someone in who knows their arse from their elbow. Then Ed Balls would be facing someone competent and that would absolutely cripple little Ed and his chances.
The tories have just seen how brittle and easily clobbered little Ed is yet is still hasn't sunk in that under FPTP the ones looking massively complacent about UKIP are quite obviously the tories right now. Banging on about Europe has not and will not work. Nor will banging on about welfare or immigration or anything Farage can easily outflank Cammie on.
What will work is getting serious on the economy by getting rid of an incompetent chancellor so toxic Cameron will be trying to hide him from the electorate at the GE just like last time. When it inevitably becomes all about the economy in 2015 it's simply not tenable to have someone in charge of strategy who is a massive failure and the economy who misses his targets and is too toxic to use in a campaign.
Luckily for UKIP and Osbrowne, tory MPs will go back to banging on about Europe and immigration and welfare and Cammie will be free to enjoy his wizard adventure as PM with all his amusing chums. At least until the election.
.........Well if they'll vote it down there is no harm in putting it down. It would at least please hsi own MPs. Interestingly the Guardian politics as similar thinking .
Fair comment. I'm not sure its good politics (not that Cameron is renouned for the wisdom of his political machinations). However any such move can be attacked for 'lurching to the right', 'pandering to UKIP fruitcakes etc' (presumably why the Guardian would love him to do it) and providing the impression of Cameron giving up the centre ground. Miliband could then begin to claim it for Labour (in a similar way as Farage has occupied the right of centre space that Cameron has deserted).
@SeanT,did you see farage on the news with cig in gob walking down street ;-) what a guy,which other of the party leaders would you see doing that,we have Cameron/clegg pretending they don't smoke or not to be seen smoking.
I wonder if Farage could capture the addicted-smokers' and the "I-like-an-occasional-cigar" vote.
It's odd how UKIP haven't made any impact or effort in counties like Worcestershire and Warwickshire. I think it's more to do with poor organisation rather than a lack of potential support.
UKIP got >600 second place results. Perhaps they just fell short?
Interesting idea re: Cameron putting down a vote on EU referendum. That would run a big risk for Cameron looking opportunistic, and he's already explicitly said that its for the next parliament. Plus it was never part of the coalition agreement - could you have imagined the LibDems signing up to that! For those reasons its a non-starter, as much as I'd love to see it!
It's odd how UKIP haven't made any impact or effort in counties like Worcestershire and Warwickshire. I think it's more to do with poor organisation rather than a lack of potential support.
UKIP got >600 second place results. Perhaps they just fell short?
Interesting idea re: Cameron putting down a vote on EU referendum.
Interesting in the sense that it's just not going to happen? I know, you said as much. Yet that won't stop the tory backbenchers trying to swing something of course but all that will ensure is a massive row betweeen them and Cammie. It certainly sounds like a good idea, for the kippers if clearly not the tories.
Labour actually polled about 13% yesterday. That was increased to 29% in the projection to take account of London, Scotland, Wales, Birmingham, Manchester, etc. But even for the experts, such as Rallings & Thrasher, it has to involve a lot of guesswork.
It's odd how UKIP haven't made any impact or effort in counties like Worcestershire and Warwickshire. I think it's more to do with poor organisation rather than a lack of potential support.
UKIP got >600 second place results. Perhaps they just fell short?
i wonder how big a difference an extra 2-3% would make?
In Warks UKIP weren't fielding candidates in lots of wards. Where they did mostly in the north of the county Labour cleaned up even though Con plus UKIP often outpolled Labour. The cons have suffered deservedly in N Warks as they didn't bother to do much to address WWC concerns. Hardly surprising they lost control, they deserved to.
It's odd how UKIP haven't made any impact or effort in counties like Worcestershire and Warwickshire. I think it's more to do with poor organisation rather than a lack of potential support.
UKIP got >600 second place results. Perhaps they just fell short?
i wonder how big a difference an extra 2-3% would make?
Hopefully we'll get the answer to that next May! :-)
I dunno. Over the last few years things have moved about ten times slower than i thought they would but now they seem to be going twice as fast as i thought so i wonder if things might go a bit quicker than that if the polling start heading toward crossover.
I'm sure it's been mentioned but Nick Robinson took his lead from Mike and told the 'extraordinary' story of how five times as many UKIP voters didn't get their children vaccinated as voters of the other parties. He was using it as an illustration that UKIPers don't trust the establishment. (In fact it just confirmed what most of us already know-it's a party that attracts flat earthers and fruitcakes).
While the FTSE-100 Index closed up nearly 0.9% higher today, a five week high and near all time record, on the combined news on good US employment figures and the rise in April's UK Service Sector PMIs, the news from the EU was not as good.
The European Commission, in its Spring Economic Forecast, has revised down growth figures for the Eurozone with worsening contraction for 2013. “We expect the European economy to stabilize in the first half of this year, GDP growth is projected to turn positive in the second half of this year and to gain momentum next year 2014. Annual GDP this year is now forecast to contract by 0,1% in the Union as a whole and by 0,4% in the euro area”, said EU Economics Commissioner Olli Rehn.
Perhaps Olli Rehn should step down and let George Osborne take over his job as EU Economics Commissioner?
Would please some on this board and may help curtail UKIP's electoral prospects.
"The real problem for the tories is very simple indeed. Cameron doesn't want to win enough. He just doesn't have the killer instinct. It shouldn't be that much of a surprise since he failed to win a majority in 2010 so had to go running to Clegg to save him."
Indeed.
Cameron wants to be liked by his opponents and shown deference by his own supporters.
So desperate pandering to guardianistas, surrounding himself with people like himself and despisal of uppity proles.
A fascinating combination of insecurity and arrogance.
It's odd how UKIP haven't made any impact or effort in counties like Worcestershire and Warwickshire. I think it's more to do with poor organisation rather than a lack of potential support.
UKIP got >600 second place results. Perhaps they just fell short?
i wonder how big a difference an extra 2-3% would make?
Hopefully we'll get the answer to that next May! :-)
I dunno. Over the last few years things have moved about ten times slower than i thought they would but now they seem to be going twice as fast as i thought so i wonder if things might go a bit quicker than that if the polling start heading toward crossover.
It's certainly looking good.
Maybe the Eurozone will implode and change the cards?
I'm sure it's been mentioned but Nick Robinson took his lead from Mike and told the 'extraordinary' story of how five times as many UKIP voters didn't get their children vaccinated as voters of the other parties. He was using it as an illustration that UKIPers don't trust the establishment. (In fact it just confirmed what most of us already know-it's a party that attracts flat earthers and fruitcakes).
And you are completely misquoting what Robinson said. (not surprising given how often you are utterly divorced from the facts).
What he actually said was what Mike had posted a thread about last week which was that UKIP supporters are 5 times more likely to be sceptical of the MMR. He made no mention of how many had actually had their children vaccinated.
This is not surprising given that Mike also failed to mention the fact that the same survey he and Nick Robinson used also found that 100% of UKIP supporters had their children vaccinated even though they had doubts about it.
On the other hand that same survey also showed that fully 25% of Lib Dem supporters failed to have their children vaccinated even though only 2% of them had any doubts about it.
So basically UKIP supporters have doubts but do the right thing in spite of their doubts whilst Lib Dem supporters believe whatever they are told but then are so irresponsible that 25% of them don't go and get their kids vaccinated.
Seems to me it is the Lib Dems who deserve the moniker of flat earthers and fruit cakes. Oh and champagne socialists like yourself who can't be bothered to actually look at the data in the surveys.
A bad day for Cameron. Today was the first time that his leap to the centre and desertion of the right proved to be as unwise as some of us said. At the the battlefront on his left flank he lost Warwickshire, Derbyshire & Notts. On their own these losses are acceptable. It could have been a lot worse on this front. However Cameron had done what is unheard for a Conservative in opening up a second battlefront on his right flank. The result of this was to lose Norfolk, Lincolnshire, East Sussex and Cambridgeshire. They almost lost one of their flagships in Kent. A further 3 losses on top of the 27 they had incurred would have seen Kent fall into NOC.
Add to that the lowest projected national vote share ever recordecd in BBC records and within 2 points of the UKIP projected vote share and despite the councillor losses [which could have been worse] it was a 'terrible night for the Tories' not least because they are now positioned between their opponents who can take turns in chipping away at them.
If Miliband was going to 'seal the deal' with the electorate then he should have done by now and whilst they certainly did reasonably well they didn't do well enough. Yes they won back two councils but they missed an awful lot more and worse rather than being able to claim the one nation mantle they are thrashing around fighting for third and fourth place all across the south with the Libdems with UKIP having leapfrogged both parties in one night in many counties.
As for the Libdems apart from the legacy of 2010 and before, for all intents and purposes they are now the 4th party in England (and given their prior dismal performances elsewhere) are now the 4th Party in Britain. They like the Tories recorded the lowest projected national vote share since the BBC recorded such things. Clegg has taken them to new lows.
UKIP. Finally they have got off the ground domestically. An impressive beginning but there is a long way to go. The key thing is they now have the start of potential homelands in Kent, Lincolnshire, Cambridgeshire, Norfolk and Essex and within most of those counties concentrations of support to expand out from if they can. The domestic journey is now just beginning.
"The real problem for the tories is very simple indeed. Cameron doesn't want to win enough. He just doesn't have the killer instinct. It shouldn't be that much of a surprise since he failed to win a majority in 2010 so had to go running to Clegg to save him."
Indeed.
Cameron wants to be liked by his opponents and shown deference by his own supporters.
So desperate pandering to guardianistas, surrounding himself with people like himself and despisal of uppity proles.
A fascinating combination of insecurity and arrogance.
Its still amazing after the 2010GE election that Cameron didn't get the message that former mining seats with WWC disenchantment with Labour eg Wakefield, Penistone & Stocksbridge and the like offer the Conservatives far more opportunity long term compared to middle class urban seats that have been drifting away from them long term eg Leeds NE
It's odd how UKIP haven't made any impact or effort in counties like Worcestershire and Warwickshire. I think it's more to do with poor organisation rather than a lack of potential support.
UKIP got >600 second place results. Perhaps they just fell short?
i wonder how big a difference an extra 2-3% would make?
Hopefully we'll get the answer to that next May! :-)
I dunno. Over the last few years things have moved about ten times slower than i thought they would but now they seem to be going twice as fast as i thought so i wonder if things might go a bit quicker than that if the polling start heading toward crossover.
It's certainly looking good.
Maybe the Eurozone will implode and change the cards?
There's that as well but i'm wondering even sooner than that i.e. if there might be a biggish jump in the yougov polling in the next few days.
Comments
Are the conservatives under orders not to say "UKIP"??? The love that dare not speak its name!
EDIT: Shapps just said it
Congratulations on a fantastic result.
North Yorkshire country areas never change though from Conservative.
But UKIP gained a foothold on the coast I believe taking a seat in Filey.
Two of the following 4 have to go:
Shapps
Osborne
Crosby
Cameron.
You can't have 4 people with massive inputs in to messaging. Otherwise you end up with the confused nonsense the Tories have had as a response to UKIP. Amazingly they seem to have got the worst possible combination.
Bigging them up with anti EU skirt lifting and then a ham fisted publicity generating attack in the last week. That was Shapps's fault and he should go for it.
You really can't underestimate how the ever decreasing number of Tory members is killing the party.
1) national capitalist + small c social conservative
or
2) international capitalist + socially liberal
what percentage of the current Tory vote would be more comfortable in option 1? I'd guess at least 1/2. What percentage of Ukippers would be more comfortable in option 2? I'd guess about zero (although that doesn't mean they wouldn't go back in a forced choice but it would be reluctant.)
So...Ukip don't need to be thinking about pacts (except locally). They need to just keep kicking and more of the current Tory vote will crumble their way.
except Farage of course
It's the economy. You know it's the economy, I know it's the economy - tha's the key to winning back most of the UKIP defectors (there is a measure of agreement on how to tackle these). And yesterday's vote has done nothing to induce pessimism about 2015 on my part. But you? Hmmm
That is 2005, middle of the Iraq war, toxic Tony, tory party led by someone of the night (allegedly). It is not much of an achievement to not quite match that is it?
http://labourlist.org/2013/04/local-elections-2013-the-councils-labour-should-watch/
These elections give Labour the opportunity to present a our One Nation vision on the doorstep, and if we get this right, we should expect to pick up a fair few seats. A good result for Labour would see us taking back the majority of the 291 [!!!] councillors we lost in 2009. A great result would be taking back control of key areas in the East Midlands and making inroads in some of the many Tory strongholds, such as Kent, Essex and Hertfordshire. With this in mind, here are the 14 councils that Labour should be watching on Thursday.
Overall i'd say below par. What do Labour people think?
Cumbria - in 2009 Labour lost 15 seats, gained 10 today, still NOC (below par)
Derbyshire - Labour lost 16 councillors in 2009, gained 18 today and control of the council (par)
Durham - increase in a stronghold (par)
Essex - lost 12 seats here in 2009, gained 8 today (below par)
Kent - lost 18 seats in 2009, gained 11 today (below par)
Lancashire - lost 27 seats in Lancs in 2009, gained 23 today. Largest party but NOC (below par)
Lincolnshire - 15 seats lost in 2009, 8 regained today (below par)
Norfolk - lost 19 councillors in 2009, gained 11 today (below par)
Northamptonshire - lost 14 councillors in 2009, gained 7 today and still Tory controlled (below par)
Northumberland - new unitary in 2008, largest party now instead of LD (par)
Nottinghamshire - lost control of the council in 2009, after losing 22 seats. Regained 21 seats and control of council (par)
Staffordshire - lost control of the council in 2009 after losing 29 seats, plus 21 today but still Tory controlled (below par)
Suffolk - lost 18 councillors in 2009, gained 11 today (below par)
Warwickshire - in 2009 Labour lost 12 councillors, regained 12 today (par)
Con 280 .. Lab 285 .. LibDem 45 .. SNP 10 .. Ukip 5 .. PC 3 .. Green 1 .. Respect 1 .. Ind 1 .. Speaker 1 .. NI 18
KEEP CALM
AND
CARRY ON
GOVERNING
And that with the exceptions of Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire and with the formation of coalitions in the councils which have reverted to NOC is what the Conservative Party will do.
Oh dear, your heart really isn't in it tonight. Take an evening off, funny fella.
It is a terrible performance and Mike must be having a laugh.
My advice to David Cameron would be as follows: He needs to be seen to be doing something about UKIP. There is no point pledging to cut immigration when Bulgarians and Romanians will be arriving next year. Any attempt to pledge a referendum next parliament is simply not credible.
Instead he should go to parliament on Monday (or when it is next open) and put down a bill for an in/out referendum this autumn. Then dare Labour/LDs to vote it down. He could stay above the fray and allow his MPs to campaign for whichever side they choose.This could then pan out 3 ways:
1) It is voted down. Cameron can unite the right by saying only more Con MPs can deliver on a referendum. Also can blame Lab/LD if Romanian/Bulgarian immigration is high.
2) The vote happens and UK votes to leave. UKIP loses its raison d'etre. Cons can actually put stuff like leaving the ECHR in their manifesto and potentially deliver.
3) The vote happens and UK votes to stay. The right won't be happy but it takes some of the sting out of the issue.
The only downside is the LDs won't be happy but it will look bad for them if they allow a referendum on AV but not the EU and there have already been plenty of coalition spats.
All in all seems to be more upside than downside for Cameron.
A referendum could also work as a strategy for Ed Miliband too "I believe we should be part of the EU but people deserve a say. I believe we should have a referendum and I look forward to making the case for the EU". Would cause Government splits and cause Cameron problems. Perhaps more risky though for Miliband.
Either way with talk of a backbench bill coming it would certainly be better for either leader to make the running. Doubt very much either would do it though.
The Great Oration has thus far succeeded (beyond even my expectations) in preventing the Tory party from tearing itself to pieces on Europe. It must continue to hold its nerve. I think it will.
Similar to when Nick Faldo won his first British Open everyone else just faded away in the cold and wind.
5 years hard graft here all day every day - whatever people think of tim he's certainly a grafter.
It's the sort of workrate only now seen in Bangladeshi sweatshops and for which factory laws were brought in 200 years ago in this country.
We just need to get tim a light blue bow tie and some ivory facings for his tailcoat lapels and then he can release his inner Tory child from captivity.
tim is far too right wing for me, what with his slashing of benefits for the most vulnerable in our society.
EdM is even more boring and lacklustre than Italy's leftist flop Bersani. Labour has always been unfit for government , it's now looking increasingly unfit for opposition.
What does history repeat itself as ?
Is it farce or tragedy ?
We'll get both with the government of the Eds.
Harlow: 3% Lab lead, (2010: 11.2% Con lead)
Nuneaton: 1% Lab lead, (2010: 4.6% Con lead)
Worcester: 1% Con lead, (2010: 6.1% Con lead)
Derbyshire South: 1% Con lead, (2010: 14.1% Con lead)
Swings from Con to Lab:
Harlow: 7.1%
Nuneaton: 2.8%
Worcester: 2.6%
Derbyshire South: 6.6%
It won't go immediately. The Tories don't seem to be smart enough to realise what its about to do to them. But maybe in 10 - 15 years time they will change.
FPTP probably has another generation in it. Then its gone.
With a bit of money you never know where UKIP might be in 10 years time....
http://www.cambridgeshire.gov.uk/council/democracy/elections/elections-2013/south-cambs.htm#Melbourn
Updated @Sky News projection Labour majority of 12. Lab 331 Con 245 L/D 48 Oth 26."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2013/may/03/local-elections-2013-live-blog
Looking further afield it seems to me that Cameron's tories fit very comfortably with America's Democrats. Think of their position on gay marriage, abortion, gun control, health spending, even the size of the state these days. Could UKIP become our republican party? Will politics reshape itself to the right with the left drawn into a tory tent to stop an even more right wing party?
Now that would be funny.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22403454
This is Cameron's biggest problem in terms of PR stunts and gesture politics he is the boy who cried wolf and anything he does will be interpeted in those terms and likely get little traction.
The Tories have been screwed for quite a while except they didn't realise it and still don't really accept it or understand it.
The positive coverage today, and the new councillors in place should boost recruitment too.
The fact that the Cameroons are absolutely and utterly blind to the EU immigration issue and keep talking about net non-EU migration shows that they are completely missing the point and why UKIP are doing so well.
You remain in denial and watch the Cons lose the next election to Labour while UKIP splits the right wing vote.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-15425256
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2013/05/03/92/0401000000AEN20130503008400315F.HTML
3 of these councils were Labour controlled from 1981 to 2009:
Staffs - still Con controlled
Derbys - Labour again
Notts - Labour again (only just with 1 seat majority)
But I can only work with what Mike gives me and that requires more effort."
You're not the only one who finds them frustrating ;-)
Labour - terrible terrible result to secure just 29% projected national share. If they can't win in places like Tamworth, and can't do as well as they did in 2005 at comparable elections, then that says it all. Even South Shields and on the leader's patch in Doncaster showed no enthusiasm - a barely budged vote share in their heartland is a very poor sign.
LibDems - awful where they don't have any representation, but holding up better where they are the incumbents. 56 or 57 by-elections at the next GE, and forget any target seats. Their MP's will be much harder to shift than the current polls indicate.
Conservatives - very poor indeed, but relatively less bad given expectations than arguably Labour or the LibDems. Awful vote share, but 4% behind your principal opponent, given midterm etc - most of the Conservative local base is still largely intact.
UKIP - their day in the sun obviously, but how will they bear up to the closer scrutiny coming up? Can they become more than a largely one man band? The timing of the next economic Eurogasm I think could really play into their hands, and the 2014 Euro elections are a mouthwatering prospect right now, particularly if events play into their hands as I think they may over the next 12 months. There is a huge question where they really target for seats at the next GE - I agree with comments below that on the face of it run down coastal towns with large immigration offer the best hope eg Great Yarmouth, Boston & Skegness, the 2 Thanet seats. Presumably they'll throw everything at Eastleigh but I still don't think they can win there with the LD activist base. I also think they'd be better targeting their resources all out at about a dozen identified seats if resources allow, rather than get too greedy like the LibDems got at the last GE.
The next 2 years are going to be one heck of a political ride - bring it on!!
That sounds menacing. *shivers* *HORSE HEAD IN BED KLAXON*
Its been a great day and a thoroughly enjoyable one. I am still one of those who thinks that UKIP will be hard pressed to win a seat at the GE but for the first time ever I do start to think it might be possible under favourable conditions (the right seat and the right candidate being the main factors that could swing it.)
- Con is behind their 2005 total but only by a few dozen seats out of well over two thousand.
- Lab has exactly reversed their losses in 2009 (291 councillors).
- LD are down to a level they've not been at since last century.
- Even excluding UKIP, 'Others' - perhaps surprisingly given the triumph of Farage's troops - have about double the number in 2005.
Which, put bluntly, means that in the mid-term of a Con-LD government, Labour is only back where they were at the time that Blair scraped back for his third term. It's not exactly a spectacular success.
1) Hung parliament in 2015
2) Lib-Lab coalition with Ed M becoming PM
3) They pass electoral reform for a STV system
4) The initial lefty euphoria fades away as cuts have to made, lots of talk of betrayal etc. Labour alienates voters on the left, and the lack of any positive support for EdM to begin with also means the centre drifts away
5) Lib Dems largely tread water for five years in terms of support
5) They deny us an EU referendum and look even more like scheming elitist politicians
6) 2020 election held under STV returns a hung parliament
7) Tories and UKIP have enough MPs to get a majority, they form a coalition with a promise of an EU referendum
8) The UK votes to leave around 2022
9) Freedom!
DavidL has already noted the large increase in Markit's UK Service Sector PMIs in April, but it is worth quoting Markit's Chief Economist, Chris Williamson, on the implications of the rise for the economy in general.
“A broad-based improvement is becoming evident in the UK economy, greatly reducing the likelihood of the Bank of England seeing any need to increase its asset purchases in the immediate future.
“The upturn is being led by the service sector, but it has been accompanied by signs of activity stabilising in manufacturing and construction in April. The weighted PMI from the three surveys rose from 51.0 in March to 52.1, its highest since last August and signalling an increase in business activity for the fourth month running.
"The data suggest that the return to growth enjoyed by the economy in the first quarter persisted and may have gained momentum at the start of the second quarter.
“With the economy showing signs of gaining momentum and inflation running well ahead of target at 2.8%, the latest PMI data kills off the likelihood of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voting for more asset purchases at its May meeting. The Bank instead looks set to watch the data flow over coming months and, in particular, to await further evidence of the impact of the newly extended Funding for Lending Scheme, which is now showing real signs of boosting lending to both households and SMEs, which has been one of the root causes of the disappointing recovery to date.”
Rather better news for all of us than a change of control in a county council.
I have been drinking,so be gentle with me ;-)
5. Cameron will find it hard to resist pressure to bring in legislation for an EU referendum before 2015. It is difficult to see how this would happen, because the Lib Dems would try to block any government bill on this, but conceivably Cameron could try another route, like backbench legislation. Given what Tory MPs have been saying on this, doing nothing does not seem to be an option. And any attempt to put this issue to a vote would create a dilemma for Ed Miliband, who has so far tried to remain non-commital on a referendum.
Thank you.
It seems to me that the consequence of a rise in the UKIP vote is to unbalance the Tory vote so it no longer simply piles up in the shires. Therefore the UNS proposition may be a long way from correct.
The man goes against the grain of the modern day tv made politician.
https://twitter.com/GawainTowler/status/330333469945253889
He's not just a toxic liability who has the bar set so low that the inept tory spinners were wetting themselves with glee that avoiding a triple dip recession was somehow a triumph for him. Had there been a triple dip these self same spinners would of course then go on to claim that avoiding a quadruple dip is a sign of omnishambles Osborne's "genius". He really is that crap, as are they.
The real problem for the tories is very simple indeed. Cameron doesn't want to win enough.
He just doesn't have the killer instinct. It shouldn't be that much of a surprise since he failed to win a majority in 2010 so had to go running to Clegg to save him.
If Cammie didn't treat government like a jolly club and wheeze for his chums then he might have the balls to get rid of a toxic liability like Osbrowne and get someone in who knows their arse from their elbow. Then Ed Balls would be facing someone competent and that would absolutely cripple little Ed and his chances.
The tories have just seen how brittle and easily clobbered little Ed is yet is still hasn't sunk in that under FPTP the ones looking massively complacent about UKIP are quite obviously the tories right now. Banging on about Europe has not and will not work. Nor will banging on about welfare or immigration or anything Farage can easily outflank Cammie on.
What will work is getting serious on the economy by getting rid of an incompetent chancellor so toxic Cameron will be trying to hide him from the electorate at the GE just like last time. When it inevitably becomes all about the economy in 2015 it's simply not tenable to have someone in charge of strategy who is a massive failure and the economy who misses his targets and is too toxic to use in a campaign.
Luckily for UKIP and Osbrowne, tory MPs will go back to banging on about Europe and immigration and welfare and Cammie will be free to enjoy his wizard adventure as PM with all his amusing chums. At least until the election.
Yet that won't stop the tory backbenchers trying to swing something of course but all that will ensure is a massive row betweeen them and Cammie. It certainly sounds like a good idea, for the kippers if clearly not the tories.
If its 24% then its their worst result ever.
If its 25% then its their equal worst with 1995.
The European Commission, in its Spring Economic Forecast, has revised down growth figures for the Eurozone with worsening contraction for 2013. “We expect the European economy to stabilize in the first half of this year, GDP growth is projected to turn positive in the second half of this year and to gain momentum next year 2014. Annual GDP this year is now forecast to contract by 0,1% in the Union as a whole and by 0,4% in the euro area”, said EU Economics Commissioner Olli Rehn.
Perhaps Olli Rehn should step down and let George Osborne take over his job as EU Economics Commissioner?
Would please some on this board and may help curtail UKIP's electoral prospects.
He just doesn't have the killer instinct. It shouldn't be that much of a surprise since he failed to win a majority in 2010 so had to go running to Clegg to save him."
Indeed.
Cameron wants to be liked by his opponents and shown deference by his own supporters.
So desperate pandering to guardianistas, surrounding himself with people like himself and despisal of uppity proles.
A fascinating combination of insecurity and arrogance.
http://www.worcesternews.co.uk/news/elections_2013/
Maybe the Eurozone will implode and change the cards?
What he actually said was what Mike had posted a thread about last week which was that UKIP supporters are 5 times more likely to be sceptical of the MMR. He made no mention of how many had actually had their children vaccinated.
This is not surprising given that Mike also failed to mention the fact that the same survey he and Nick Robinson used also found that 100% of UKIP supporters had their children vaccinated even though they had doubts about it.
On the other hand that same survey also showed that fully 25% of Lib Dem supporters failed to have their children vaccinated even though only 2% of them had any doubts about it.
So basically UKIP supporters have doubts but do the right thing in spite of their doubts whilst Lib Dem supporters believe whatever they are told but then are so irresponsible that 25% of them don't go and get their kids vaccinated.
Seems to me it is the Lib Dems who deserve the moniker of flat earthers and fruit cakes. Oh and champagne socialists like yourself who can't be bothered to actually look at the data in the surveys.
A bad day for Cameron. Today was the first time that his leap to the centre and desertion of the right proved to be as unwise as some of us said. At the the battlefront on his left flank he lost Warwickshire, Derbyshire & Notts. On their own these losses are acceptable. It could have been a lot worse on this front. However Cameron had done what is unheard for a Conservative in opening up a second battlefront on his right flank. The result of this was to lose Norfolk, Lincolnshire, East Sussex and Cambridgeshire. They almost lost one of their flagships in Kent. A further 3 losses on top of the 27 they had incurred would have seen Kent fall into NOC.
Add to that the lowest projected national vote share ever recordecd in BBC records and within 2 points of the UKIP projected vote share and despite the councillor losses [which could have been worse] it was a 'terrible night for the Tories' not least because they are now positioned between their opponents who can take turns in chipping away at them.
If Miliband was going to 'seal the deal' with the electorate then he should have done by now and whilst they certainly did reasonably well they didn't do well enough. Yes they won back two councils but they missed an awful lot more and worse rather than being able to claim the one nation mantle they are thrashing around fighting for third and fourth place all across the south with the Libdems with UKIP having leapfrogged both parties in one night in many counties.
As for the Libdems apart from the legacy of 2010 and before, for all intents and purposes they are now the 4th party in England (and given their prior dismal performances elsewhere) are now the 4th Party in Britain. They like the Tories recorded the lowest projected national vote share since the BBC recorded such things. Clegg has taken them to new lows.
UKIP. Finally they have got off the ground domestically. An impressive beginning but there is a long way to go. The key thing is they now have the start of potential homelands in Kent, Lincolnshire, Cambridgeshire, Norfolk and Essex and within most of those counties concentrations of support to expand out from if they can. The domestic journey is now just beginning.
In 2010 the Tories won Worcester by 6.1% over Labour.
Yesterday Labour failed to overturn that modest lead:
Worcester, 2013:
Con 7,776 (33.4%)
Lab 7,733 (33.2%)
UKIP 3,225 (13.9%)
Green 2,744 (11.8%)
LD 1,271 (5.5%)
Others 530 (2.3%)
Changes since 2010:
Con -6.1%
Lab -0.2%
UKIP +11.1%
Green +10.3%
LD -13.9%
Others -1.1%
Swing, Con to Lab: 3.0%