In spite of latest polls Trump is a 56% chance on Betfair to retain Florida – politicalbetting.com

Times have details of vaccine proposals as at present. I wont post the tweet as there seem to be problems. Steve Swinford's tweet feed.

Over 50s by Easter.
Vaccine centres at sports hall and airports - although elderly to get via a mobile service on a bike.
No plans to be mandatory
May need 3 shots for the elderly as not clear that if they have a dose of flu the covid vaccine will work.

Casino_Royale said:

On topic, my view is Trump would have won again had it not been for Covid-19.

I think so too. I thought at the start of the year that he was a shoo-in. But his handling of it and general demeanour has been quite beyond belief.

stjohn said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

stjohn said:

Peter,

I think the previous highest total vote was 131 million in 2008. For Jack W to be correct in predicting 160 million + requires an increase in total votes of over 22% on the highest previous number. Now I know there has been an unprecedented amount of votes already cast. Over 90 million I think. But who wouldn't vote early given the Covid crisis? I'm far from sure that an additional 30 million votes, over and above the previous record, will be cast, counted and allowed in this election. So I'm not tempted to back Trump securing over 70 million votes as odds on.

Whilst you might be right, I see it as a hedge against Trump doing better than expected. Given that Biden has such a huge advantage in early- and mail-voting, the only way Trump can win is by a historically huge turnout tomorrow. If that doesn't materialise and I lose the over 70 million bet, I hope to be more than compensated by my spread bet buy of Biden.

Richard. How do we know or why do we think Biden is doing so much better that Trump in votes already cast? Is this from polling data?

All we *can* know is that in states where such datat is available, registered Dems are outvoting registered Reps. Registration is not equal to how people vote, of course.

A good overview here: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1323302095756255233

MaxPB said:

If the daily case data is representative we may actually be seeing infection rates falling faster than expected in England, Scotland and NI, by the time lockdown starts the R might be below 0.9 in all three.

Of course. It's rear view mirror time again.

At every US presidential election I've taken an interest in there were predictions of a particularly high turnout, and they proved to be false every time. There was a slightly higher turnout in 2008 when Obama was first elected but nothing special.

Ive been thinking about Trumps options to win, and I think I've found a way he can even if he loses the national vote and the electoral vote, and also a way that even if that happens Trafalgar can still be the gold standard.
At the exit poll instead of asking 'how did you vote' simply ask 'how do you think your neighbour voted'. I am sure Trump would landslide to victory and accept that result graciously with no need for the courts

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

If the daily case data is representative we may actually be seeing infection rates falling faster than expected in England, Scotland and NI, by the time lockdown starts the R might be below 0.9 in all three.

Of course. It's rear view mirror time again.

Yes undoubtedly, but surely the government scientists and data people can also work this out.

stjohn said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

stjohn said:

Peter,

I think the previous highest total vote was 131 million in 2008. For Jack W to be correct in predicting 160 million + requires an increase in total votes of over 22% on the highest previous number. Now I know there has been an unprecedented amount of votes already cast. Over 90 million I think. But who wouldn't vote early given the Covid crisis? I'm far from sure that an additional 30 million votes, over and above the previous record, will be cast, counted and allowed in this election. So I'm not tempted to back Trump securing over 70 million votes as odds on.

Whilst you might be right, I see it as a hedge against Trump doing better than expected. Given that Biden has such a huge advantage in early- and mail-voting, the only way Trump can win is by a historically huge turnout tomorrow. If that doesn't materialise and I lose the over 70 million bet, I hope to be more than compensated by my spread bet buy of Biden.

Richard. How do we know or why do we think Biden is doing so much better that Trump in votes already cast? Is this from polling data?

Yep, very strong effect in all the polls which have tracked it, for example:

The poll finds that among those who have already voted (64% Biden to 34% Trump) or who plan to vote early but had not yet done so at the time they were interviewed (63% Biden to 33% Trump), Biden holds nearly two-thirds support. Trump leads 59% to 36%, though, among those who say they plan to vote on Election Day.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-trump-florida-georgia-north-carolina-opinion-poll-10-25-2020/

Spreadex EV Biden buy has moved in today frrom 317 to ... drumroll ... 316.

It doesn't tempt me. Whilst I think he will pull over 330 EV's as we all know by now with the system, it only takes one or two tight states to make a world of difference to the EV total.

Mind you, I like the sound of him campaigning today in Ohio. That's not a state I have him down to win. Anyone else on here remember when Ohio used to be the bellwether state?

UK case summary

3-5 days. Lawyer. Kimono. Baseball bat. With nails.

peter_from_putney said:

Why is that ping? I do remember you being hyperactive last time.

Are you planning a late splurge of bets tonight/tomorrow based on the final opinion polls, or maybe you're simply bored this time?

Evening Peter.

Like Mike, I didn’t really rate joe early on - I still don’t - although his boringness is probably an asset against trump.

In terms of betting, my main regret is not piling on biden4potus at evens a few weeks ago at the height of the Hunter Biden laptop nonsense. Those were great odds.

Do you see any standout value bets right now?

Mysticrose said:

Oh no .... the moment in every day that I detest. Malmesbury posting massive long splurges of CV data. Why? Why? Why? Nothing to do with betting and if I want that I'll go elsewhere.

It ruins the loading on this site. For the love of god can't you desist?

Comments nothing to do with betting? On PB?

FFS.

Much more?

UK Deaths

3-5 days. Lawyer. Kimono. Baseball bat. With nails.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mysticrose said:

Oh no .... the moment in every day that I detest. Malmesbury posting massive long splurges of CV data. Why? Why? Why? Nothing to do with betting and if I want that I'll go elsewhere.

It ruins the loading on this site. For the love of god can't you desist?

Because we like it, and as far as I am aware, you're not the site editor?

Plus it's the tweets which slow things down. Embedded images are fine.

Thank you Malmesbury for the data and it's not causing any issues on my side today. Whatever the issue has been in recent days it's not Malmesbury's data as he's been doing that since before the recent crashes started.

Malmesbury said:

dixiedean said:

Malmesbury said:

TimT said:

noneoftheabove said:

IanB2 said:

TOPPING said:

fpt for @Tyndall

I appreciate that it's not always easy to understand written English at a basic level so I will spell it out for you as you are, as evidenced by your posting on PB, extremely stupid.

I am not criticising people for panic buying. I am explaining to dickheads such as yourself that the circumstances which lead people to panic buy are now established. People will panic buy if they perceive there is a risk to supply. This happened recently in March-May and appears to be happening now, albeit in a more limited way.

Whenever anyone has advanced the idea of empty shelves on account of Brexit, complete arseholes such as yourself have said this is Project Fear.

But it has happened before and might be happening now and if you think the merest hint of supply problems come the end of the transition period will not result in it happening again then, frankly, you really need someone to put you out of your misery.

My prudent buying ‘because of the risk to supply‘ has positioned me so well that I have enough bog roll to last well into next year and have no need to worry about the panic buying of bog roll second time around. Good planning, I think!

Surely all well run households are already topping up their rolling supply of 25+ bog rolls per person so have no need to panic. Just in time bog roll procurement is so 2019.

No room left in this house for panic buying of paper products. The guest room closet has been full to overflowing since early March. Will top up on dog food and chicken stock though. Otherwise, the emergency reserves have been maintained in good shape.

From the first panic - I actually talked to a few people working in supermarkets. They weren't seeing many of the 10 trolleys of bog roll types. Instead they were seeing many more people doing a "full shop"

They reckoned that a lot of people lived with nothing in the cupboard. Bought for tonights dinner etc.... And then they suddenly decided to fill the kitchen cabinets.....

Which is entirely rational behaviour. Add to that everyone who does a weekly "big shop", doing it this weekend, and buying even 25% more than usual, again, eminently sensible, and you have empty shelves without the slightest hint of anyone panicking at all.

Another way to think of it - most big supermarkets stick directly onto the shelves. So what you see, is quite often what they have,

How many big packs of bog roll can they stock? - 100 customers later......

That was how I ended up with so much! Last time, I ordered a jumbo pack of rolls from Waitrose - one of those aimed at large families who like curries - only to have them drop it from the delivery order for three weeks running, because they had sold out.

So, wandering down to the local Co-op one day, miraculously I arrived just after they had shelved the latest stock, and I managed to bag two big packs of rolls. I got home feeling very satisfied, only for the Waitrose delivery the next morning finally to fulfil my order for the jumbo pack. I reckon it’ll be next autumn before I need any more.

Great thread.

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1323303675889147909

Mysticrose said:

Oh no .... the moment in every day that I detest. Malmesbury posting massive long splurges of CV data. Why? Why? Why? Nothing to do with betting and if I want that I'll go elsewhere.

It ruins the loading on this site. For the love of god can't you desist?

Malmesbury did ask and most of us said yes, it's useful, do carry on.

EPG said:

Biden is going to Ohio, which to me is surprising. I would have expected Ohio to be clearly Trumpy in the final analysis. To me that suggests that his campaign does not see Wisconsin, Michigan or Minnesota as under threat, because all those states would be more friendly than Ohio. But who knows?

But why NOT Ohio? Surely he has the three states you mention sewn up, if not he'd better start worrying, big time. The polls show him closing the gap on Trump in Ohio to within 3% or 4%. Allow for a margin of error in his favour plus a continuing trend towards him and a potentially huge prize awaits. i.e. 18 ECVs!

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

In about 48h time we will see who is right and who is wrong about Trafalgar and actual real pollsters etc

I wonder if those who are wrong whomever they may be will acknowledge they were and contemplate why. If Trump wins now I will certainly be wrong.

In about 35 hours we'll have a pretty good idea; at the very least we'll know whether it's a close run thing, or if one candidate has run away with it.

The moment we start getting serious numbers from Florida, we'll start getting useful information on how key demographics such as the suburbs, older voters, rural America etc., are voting. Pretty much the only information we won't start getting in reasonable quantity is how Hispanic (non-Cuban) Americans will vote, because Florida's Hispanics don't look like the rest of the US.

What time do I have to get up on Wednesday morning UK time?

Ideally I'd like to get some sleep first when not much is happening.

I’m planning the same. I reckon an early night and setting the alarm for three should do it.

Trump gaining ground. BUT what if he gets more votes than Biden but the Dems win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvannia and get their 272 seats in the College. It is something I have not consdiered before but the Rasmussen poll is so close, closer than their Moday before election day poll in 2016

Selebian said:

Crikey, it seems someone I went to uni with has been appointed head of Analysis and Data
at No 10 (that's Dom's skunkworks unit, I think).

Haven't really kept in touch for the last decade or so, but he (at least when I knew him) was a very capable guy and not in Cummings crazy category, I'd be surprised if he was pro-Brexit (not suggesting you have to be Cummings crazy to be pro-Brexit, but I would have thought that might have been a job requirement). Worked at DfID previously and actually cared about that. Not impossible that under him the unit might even do some useful stuff.

He'll end up quitting after a while because Dom will try and do his job better.

Farage in DC pushing the Trump message

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1323298891962503168?s=20

Andy_JS said:

RobD said:

Mysticrose said:

I'm not TSE but it fucks the site loading up and it's got bugger all to do with betting.

And lots of us are fed up with endless tweets being pasted in and data tables like this which slow the site down and make it often almost unworkable.

Grump over. I'll go make a cuppa.

At least on my crappy old phone the page loads fine. It's when it gets bogged down with twitter embeds it becomes a problem. You can notice it on the laptop too, the CPU spikes when refreshing because of the tweets.

I don't understand why people use phones to read a site like this. It's much easier to read on a laptop or desktop computer.

If i'm sitting on the toilet how else am I going to read PB?

HYUFD said:

Farage in DC pushing the Trump message

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1323298891962503168?s=20

Horrifying scenes in Washington DC ...: Farage on walkabout?

ThomasNashe said:

HYUFD said:

Farage in DC pushing the Trump message

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1323298891962503168?s=20

Horrifying scenes in Washington DC ...: Farage on walkabout?

I thought it was a comment about his suit and trainers combo.

https://youtu.be/oJ4mxOluXY4

RobD said:

ThomasNashe said:

HYUFD said:

Farage in DC pushing the Trump message

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1323298891962503168?s=20

Horrifying scenes in Washington DC ...: Farage on walkabout?

I thought it was a comment about his suit and trainers combo.

Absolutely unforgivable, unless you're David Tennant.

Philip_Thompson said:

nico679 said:

Bad news for Trump in Pennsylvania.

Many of the large counties are going to start releasing mail in ballot results from as early as 8.30 pm local time . Those are all Democrat strongholds .

Is that 1.30am UK time?

That will just be the results of some ballots as they go along not all of them won't it?

Can someone please explain how the US release results as they go along? Because they aren't like us waiting for all results to be in are they, how does it work? Do they release intermittently or when a precinct is completed or something else?

Each state has a ballot closing time (like our 10pm), except for one or two that vary with time zones. As soon as that happens, people in that state start counting, and announce the results as they go. People in other states may still be voting (it's a perennial CA complaint that it depresses turnout there as people see the results already coming in and may think the issuer is decided). It seems that some precincts in PA are totalling early voting for early release, but not before ballots close, so yes, 130 UK time.

Finland, I believe, releases updates during the day, so you can see who's winning and decide to rush out and reinforce/counter it. It's an interesting idea, not sure how I feel about it.

Mysticrose said:

Oh no .... the moment in every day that I detest. Malmesbury posting massive long splurges of CV data. Why? Why? Why? Nothing to do with betting and if I want that I'll go elsewhere.

It ruins the loading on this site. For the love of god can't you desist?

I like it!

Biden +4 in Georgia but only +2 in Pennsylvania is funny.

No love lost there......

https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1323308462407852034?s=20

NickPalmer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

nico679 said:

Bad news for Trump in Pennsylvania.

Many of the large counties are going to start releasing mail in ballot results from as early as 8.30 pm local time . Those are all Democrat strongholds .

Is that 1.30am UK time?

That will just be the results of some ballots as they go along not all of them won't it?

Can someone please explain how the US release results as they go along? Because they aren't like us waiting for all results to be in are they, how does it work? Do they release intermittently or when a precinct is completed or something else?

Each state has a ballot closing time (like our 10pm), except for one or two that vary with time zones. As soon as that happens, people in that state start counting, and announce the results as they go. People in other states may still be voting (it's a perennial CA complaint that it depresses turnout there as people see the results already coming in and may think the issuer is decided). It seems that some precincts in PA are totalling early voting for early release, but not before ballots close, so yes, 130 UK time.

Finland, I believe, releases updates during the day, so you can see who's winning and decide to rush out and reinforce/counter it. It's an interesting idea, not sure how I feel about it.

So they give a running total as they go along? No delays?

NickPalmer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

nico679 said:

Bad news for Trump in Pennsylvania.

Many of the large counties are going to start releasing mail in ballot results from as early as 8.30 pm local time . Those are all Democrat strongholds .

Is that 1.30am UK time?

That will just be the results of some ballots as they go along not all of them won't it?

Can someone please explain how the US release results as they go along? Because they aren't like us waiting for all results to be in are they, how does it work? Do they release intermittently or when a precinct is completed or something else?

Each state has a ballot closing time (like our 10pm), except for one or two that vary with time zones. As soon as that happens, people in that state start counting, and announce the results as they go. People in other states may still be voting (it's a perennial CA complaint that it depresses turnout there as people see the results already coming in and may think the issuer is decided). It seems that some precincts in PA are totalling early voting for early release, but not before ballots close, so yes, 130 UK time.

Finland, I believe, releases updates during the day, so you can see who's winning and decide to rush out and reinforce/counter it. It's an interesting idea, not sure how I feel about it.

Nick P. Have you spotted any value bets ahead of tomorrow's election?

RobD said:

Mysticrose said:

I'm not TSE but it fucks the site loading up and it's got bugger all to do with betting.

And lots of us are fed up with endless tweets being pasted in and data tables like this which slow the site down and make it often almost unworkable.

Grump over. I'll go make a cuppa.

At least on my crappy old phone the page loads fine. It's when it gets bogged down with twitter embeds it becomes a problem. You can notice it on the laptop too, the CPU spikes when refreshing because of the tweets.

It would only take two PB’ers - one from each side of the emerging cultural divide - to stop spamming the site with frankly uninformative tweets, and it would run fine.

rottenborough said:

Times have details of vaccine proposals as at present. I wont post the tweet as there seem to be problems. Steve Swinford's tweet feed.

Over 50s by Easter.
Vaccine centres at sports hall and airports - although elderly to get via a mobile service on a bike.
No plans to be mandatory
May need 3 shots for the elderly as not clear that if they have a dose of flu the covid vaccine will work.

If that includes care home workers and NHS and social care, and high risk adults, that's 30 million people.
At that point, even if the vaccine is only 50% effective, we will see some herd immunity effects.

An R(t) of 1.33 would become an R(t) of 0.99
An R(t) of 1.6 (the higher end of some of the R estimates we've seen with restrictions) would become 1.2
An R(0) of 3 would become 2.25

If the vaccine was 65% effective:

An R of just under 1.5 would become under 1.0
An R of 1.6 would become under 1.1
An R of 3 would become 2.

If they rolled it out further (to 45 million of us) and it was 65% effective:
An R of just under 2 would become under 1
An R of 1.6 would become 0.8
An R of 3 would become 1.5.

Gallowgate said:

Biden +4 in Georgia but only +2 in Pennsylvania is funny.

Does anyone have any background on this company? I'm guessing polling isn't there first activity.

EPG said:

Biden is going to Ohio, which to me is surprising. I would have expected Ohio to be clearly Trumpy in the final analysis. To me that suggests that his campaign does not see Wisconsin, Michigan or Minnesota as under threat, because all those states would be more friendly than Ohio. But who knows?

The Biden senior campaign staff are Obama's Midwestern team from 2008/2012.

They will have a certain amount of personal pride staked on taking Iowa and Ohio.

CarlottaVance said:

No love lost there......

https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1323308462407852034?s=20

This line from the conductor of the last indy poll must have struck home.

'“In focus groups [Boris Johnson] is not just criticized in the way David Cameron and Theresa May were,” James Johnson adds, “but loathed.”'

In case no-one else has posted. Ralston rails against Republican corruption and based on the data thus far calls Nevada for Biden with a near cert level of confidence -

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/biden-will-win-nevada-blue-wave-should-help-down-ballot

It's 1.24 on Betfair.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Anabobazina said:

IanB2 said:

RobD said:

Mysticrose said:

I'm not TSE but it fucks the site loading up and it's got bugger all to do with betting.

And lots of us are fed up with endless tweets being pasted in and data tables like this which slow the site down and make it often almost unworkable.

Grump over. I'll go make a cuppa.

At least on my crappy old phone the page loads fine. It's when it gets bogged down with twitter embeds it becomes a problem. You can notice it on the laptop too, the CPU spikes when refreshing because of the tweets.

It would only take two PB’ers - one from each side of the emerging cultural divide - to stop spamming the site with frankly uninformative tweets, and it would run fine.

Agreed! And can we stop the victim blaming by the anti-Apple obsessives, arguing that it's somehow my and RobD's fault for using an iPhone!!!

True, it's most unfair of people to blame you for not being able to afford an Android phone.

The reason I can't is because I bought this stupid iPhone.

500k PCR capacity. If the government had just pulled their finger out and got this in place for September, they could have had some good headlines for once.

I hope this big fall in reported cases numbers isn't another excel balls up.

I have an iPhone and PB works fine on that.

Andy_JS said:

RobD said:

Mysticrose said:

I'm not TSE but it fucks the site loading up and it's got bugger all to do with betting.

And lots of us are fed up with endless tweets being pasted in and data tables like this which slow the site down and make it often almost unworkable.

Grump over. I'll go make a cuppa.

At least on my crappy old phone the page loads fine. It's when it gets bogged down with twitter embeds it becomes a problem. You can notice it on the laptop too, the CPU spikes when refreshing because of the tweets.

I don't understand why people use phones to read a site like this. It's much easier to read on a laptop or desktop computer.

I think that's a bit unfair.

Some people find the phone more convenient for where they are/what they are doing than tablet or computer.

SandyRentool said:

The only thing left to find out is who will be Kamala's VP pick in 2024. I reckon Beto, to hold on to this year's gain in Texas.


The above is in the tradition of my "Will Ed Miliband serve more than two terms?" post from some years back. In reality I am nervously optimistic, with periodic pangs of doubt.

Also, will she be running as the incumbent? Biden might not last the distance.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I have an iPhone and PB works fine on that.

Whatever the issue was in recent days on PB it seems to be fixed today.

It's not and never was Malmesbury's charts.

Theuniondivvie said:

CarlottaVance said:

No love lost there......

https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1323308462407852034?s=20

This line from the conductor of the last indy poll must have struck home.

'“In focus groups [Boris Johnson] is not just criticized in the way David Cameron and Theresa May were,” James Johnson adds, “but loathed.”'

Having a grown up in the top job really should be first base. That the UK and US both failed this elementary test is to our shame.