I just want to comment on *why* we've not seen vaccine efficacy news yet, and why that's probably good news.
These massive trials are blinded. They give the vaccine to 10,000 people and a placebo to 10,000 people. This means 20,000 people have recieved either the vaccine or the placebo.
The participants are then monitored. Once a certain number (probably around 50) have gotten CV19, then the trial is unblinded for those 50. How many got the vaccine and how many the placebo.
If it's 25/25, then the vaccine is a clear failure (although it might still result in far more asymptomatic or low intensity infections, and therefore be very useful). If it's 50/0, then it's a massive success.
None of the trials has yet gotten the required number of CV19 cases. This is partly because the big trials are in the Southern hemisphere and as it warms up and people spend more time outdoors, the numbers of cases in Brazil and South Africa have come down sharply.
But it also suggests that people with the vaccine are not getting sick. The more time it takes to get to 50 cases, the more likely it is that the vaccine is working.
Given what's at stake (and I get the ethics) why not call for volunteers to take a shot of the virus and give them a million quid each for it?
The problem with them, though, is that the virus is primarily one of the upper respiratory tract. An injection of the virus directly into the bloodstream is a very different way to get it, so you may get different results - either worse for the participant as they are overwhelmed by the virus or better as the immune system gets a good look at it early.
I just want to comment on *why* we've not seen vaccine efficacy news yet, and why that's probably good news.
These massive trials are blinded. They give the vaccine to 10,000 people and a placebo to 10,000 people. This means 20,000 people have recieved either the vaccine or the placebo.
The participants are then monitored. Once a certain number (probably around 50) have gotten CV19, then the trial is unblinded for those 50. How many got the vaccine and how many the placebo.
If it's 25/25, then the vaccine is a clear failure (although it might still result in far more asymptomatic or low intensity infections, and therefore be very useful). If it's 50/0, then it's a massive success.
None of the trials has yet gotten the required number of CV19 cases. This is partly because the big trials are in the Southern hemisphere and as it warms up and people spend more time outdoors, the numbers of cases in Brazil and South Africa have come down sharply.
But it also suggests that people with the vaccine are not getting sick. The more time it takes to get to 50 cases, the more likely it is that the vaccine is working.
Plus it presumably also means that they are not seeing evidence of nasty side-effects.
Yes, there have been a remarkably small number of pauses: we've had the Brazilian guy who died of Covid (who'd got the placebo), the guy who was diagnosed with MS (who'd also had the placebo) and the spinal inflammation that resulted in a night in hospital (vaccine). And the reality is that the last might simply be a complete coincidence. If you give a vaccine to 20,000 people, some of them are going to get sick in the subsequent couple of months.
My son had a massive reaction to the MMR jab. Soaring temperature, the worst hives imaginable. It didn't get better. Quite a concern.
On turnout: of course the other possibility is that the final figures won't be as high as people are projecting; if so, that means fewer in-person voters tomorrow than assumed, which in turn means that Biden's large early-vote advantage will turn into a whole-election advantage. Essentially Trump's chances depend entirely on a massive in-person vote tomorrow.
Great bet from kinabulu, followed up this afternoon by Richard Nabavi for Trump to secure >70million votes at odds of 1.81 with BetfairEx has now shortened to 1.41. Real value like this doesn't last long once it is outed on PB.com. Thanks to the two gents concerned for highlighting it.
I got that when it was first raised, so thanks from me too
Yes, he's 'right': Magna Carta wasn't written in English, and nor is article 61 relevant or still valid, but it's this endless sneering at totems of British and English history that grates with me.
People like him want to attack the keystone events, myths and stories on which this nation is built - which is important to all nations - because he sees it as an obstacle to his politics.
Lol. You're the one bringing politics into this. Stop getting wound up over nothing for goodness sake.
If you read his tweets you'll see he mocks 'patriots' and throws in 'olde Englishe mythe making' into it as well. If you don't think that's political then that's because you already agree with him, and are therefore blind to it.
He's technically ''right, but that's besides the point: generations of Englishmen (and many others around the world) have taken inspiration from a handful of the principles first articulated in it to advance the cause of individual liberty over the last 800 years, and used it as a rallying call for action. It even influenced the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights in 1948.
That's why it's important.
The Magna Carta is incredibly important and is unquestionably one of the foundation stones of individual liberty in this country. However, those who proclaim its importance while simultaneously supporting efforts to emasculate an independent judiciary, which is the only guarantor of individual liberty we have, not only deserve mockery but also deep scorn.
I totally agree with you.
As a centrist liberal who absolutely without qualification supports an independent judiciary can I just ask what precisely are the proposals to prevent them being exactly that? I know there's lots of rhetoric, but is there any substance?
Just watching a few snips of The Donald on the campaign trail, doing one of his unscripted comic Capo schticks. Conversational. Taking the audience into his confidence. Bit like Clinton (Bill), who of all the former US Presidents he most resembles. He'll lose, but you can see why they love him, in a way that a conventional pol like Biden could never manage.
I just want to comment on *why* we've not seen vaccine efficacy news yet, and why that's probably good news.
These massive trials are blinded. They give the vaccine to 10,000 people and a placebo to 10,000 people. This means 20,000 people have recieved either the vaccine or the placebo.
The participants are then monitored. Once a certain number (probably around 50) have gotten CV19, then the trial is unblinded for those 50. How many got the vaccine and how many the placebo.
If it's 25/25, then the vaccine is a clear failure (although it might still result in far more asymptomatic or low intensity infections, and therefore be very useful). If it's 50/0, then it's a massive success.
None of the trials has yet gotten the required number of CV19 cases. This is partly because the big trials are in the Southern hemisphere and as it warms up and people spend more time outdoors, the numbers of cases in Brazil and South Africa have come down sharply.
But it also suggests that people with the vaccine are not getting sick. The more time it takes to get to 50 cases, the more likely it is that the vaccine is working.
Given what's at stake (and I get the ethics) why not call for volunteers to take a shot of the virus and give them a million quid each for it?
The problem with them, though, is that the virus is primarily one of the upper respiratory tract. An injection of the virus directly into the bloodstream is a very different way to get it, so you may get different results - either worse for the participant as they are overwhelmed by the virus or better as the immune system gets a good look at it early.
Surely, you could infect them with exposure to aerosolized virus rather than injection? But given that initial viral dose seems to be quite important in disease progression, you'd have to have a fairly large study to have meaningful statistics for the effectiveness of the vaccine against a range of different initial viral doses.
Just watching a few snips of The Donald on the campaign trail, doing one of his unscripted comic Capo schticks. Conversational. Taking the audience into his confidence. Bit like Clinton (Bill), who of all the former US Presidents he most resembles. He'll lose, but you can see why they love him, in a way that a conventional pol like Biden could never manage.
I just want to comment on *why* we've not seen vaccine efficacy news yet, and why that's probably good news.
These massive trials are blinded. They give the vaccine to 10,000 people and a placebo to 10,000 people. This means 20,000 people have recieved either the vaccine or the placebo.
The participants are then monitored. Once a certain number (probably around 50) have gotten CV19, then the trial is unblinded for those 50. How many got the vaccine and how many the placebo.
If it's 25/25, then the vaccine is a clear failure (although it might still result in far more asymptomatic or low intensity infections, and therefore be very useful). If it's 50/0, then it's a massive success.
None of the trials has yet gotten the required number of CV19 cases. This is partly because the big trials are in the Southern hemisphere and as it warms up and people spend more time outdoors, the numbers of cases in Brazil and South Africa have come down sharply.
But it also suggests that people with the vaccine are not getting sick. The more time it takes to get to 50 cases, the more likely it is that the vaccine is working.
Plus it presumably also means that they are not seeing evidence of nasty side-effects.
Yes, there have been a remarkably small number of pauses: we've had the Brazilian guy who died of Covid (who'd got the placebo), the guy who was diagnosed with MS (who'd also had the placebo) and the spinal inflammation that resulted in a night in hospital (vaccine). And the reality is that the last might simply be a complete coincidence. If you give a vaccine to 20,000 people, some of them are going to get sick in the subsequent couple of months.
My son had a massive reaction to the MMR jab. Soaring temperature, the worst hives imaginable. It didn't get better. Quite a concern.
It was Chicken Pox. He got it on the same day.
That is a wonderful anecdote that powerfully demonstrates the problems of trials involving very large numbers. I am also certainly going to use it when trying to get that point across in workshops.
They are only worrying about this now? How long ago did he say "F*** business"?
That FT article is horrible for Johnson. Horrible.
My daughter, who is not political, watched Boris's lockdown "broadcast" and pronounced it a waste of her time. She said he looked clueless and like he was making it up as he went along.
If my daughter has reached that verdict with her non-existant political antennae then Boris is in far worse trouble than the FT article indicates.
So many of the late 90s / noughties pop stars appear to have gone mental.
I'm still reeling from Robbie Williams from being a pizzagate believer.
What next Gina G retweeting Alistair Hames 'trend lines', Baby Spice blames Covid-19 on 5G, and James Dean Bradfield enthusiastically retweeting the likes of Toby Young, James Dellingpole, and Peter Hitchens?
Just watching a few snips of The Donald on the campaign trail, doing one of his unscripted comic Capo schticks. Conversational. Taking the audience into his confidence. Bit like Clinton (Bill), who of all the former US Presidents he most resembles. He'll lose, but you can see why they love him, in a way that a conventional pol like Biden could never manage.
He should have a reality tv show or something....
Keeping up with the Trumps? No, Trumping the Trumps.
They are only worrying about this now? How long ago did he say "F*** business"?
That FT article is horrible for Johnson. Horrible.
My daughter, who is not political, watched Boris's lockdown "broadcast" and pronounced it a waste of her time. She said he looked clueless and like he was making it up as he went along.
If my daughter has reached that verdict with her non-existant political antennae then Boris is in far worse trouble than the FT article indicates.
He is toast.
Boris Johnson is unquestionably the worst Prime Minister of modern times, probably of all time. He takes abysmal to places I don't think anyone could ever have imagined - even those of us who knew he would be a complete disaster.
Looks like the judge in the Houston drive through voting case might be thinking of the option of allowing the votes cast to be 'legal' then make it illegal from now! That would be a compromise though still wrong IMO. I can see days and weeks of this kind of stuff sadly. Court case still ongoing though so who knows
So many of the late 90s / noughties pop stars appear to have gone mental.
I'm still reeling from Robbie Williams from being a pizzagate believer.
What next Gina G retweet Alistair Hames, Baby Spice blames Covid-19 on 5G, and James Dean Bradfield enthusiastically retweeting the likes of Toby Young, James Dellingpole, and Peter Hitchens?
Robbie Williams being a nutter seems about as surprising as a bear being in the woods.
I just want to comment on *why* we've not seen vaccine efficacy news yet, and why that's probably good news.
These massive trials are blinded. They give the vaccine to 10,000 people and a placebo to 10,000 people. This means 20,000 people have recieved either the vaccine or the placebo.
The participants are then monitored. Once a certain number (probably around 50) have gotten CV19, then the trial is unblinded for those 50. How many got the vaccine and how many the placebo.
If it's 25/25, then the vaccine is a clear failure (although it might still result in far more asymptomatic or low intensity infections, and therefore be very useful). If it's 50/0, then it's a massive success.
None of the trials has yet gotten the required number of CV19 cases. This is partly because the big trials are in the Southern hemisphere and as it warms up and people spend more time outdoors, the numbers of cases in Brazil and South Africa have come down sharply.
But it also suggests that people with the vaccine are not getting sick. The more time it takes to get to 50 cases, the more likely it is that the vaccine is working.
It didn't take rcs1000 long to have gotten into the habit. I bet he's gotten an accent too to go with the new vocabulary.
So many of the late 90s / noughties pop stars appear to have gone mental.
I'm still reeling from Robbie Williams from being a pizzagate believer.
What next Gina G retweet Alistair Hames, Baby Spice blames Covid-19 on 5G, and James Dean Bradfield enthusiastically retweeting the likes of Toby Young, James Dellingpole, and Peter Hitchens?
Robbie Williams being a nutter seems about as surprising as a bear being in the woods.
I once met Robbie Williams, back in early 2000s, he was so lovely towards me.
They are only worrying about this now? How long ago did he say "F*** business"?
That FT article is horrible for Johnson. Horrible.
My daughter, who is not political, watched Boris's lockdown "broadcast" and pronounced it a waste of her time. She said he looked clueless and like he was making it up as he went along.
If my daughter has reached that verdict with her non-existant political antennae then Boris is in far worse trouble than the FT article indicates.
He is toast.
Boris Johnson is unquestionably the worst Prime Minister of modern times, probably of all time. He takes abysmal to places I don't think anyone could ever have imagined - even those of us who knew he would be a complete disaster.
This may be true, but the FT article was Phil Space simplistic hack journalism and completely unworthy of this often decent newspaper, dragging out every tired cliche in the book.
Looks like the judge in the Houston drive through voting case might be thinking of the option of allowing the votes cast to be 'legal' then make it illegal from now! That would be a compromise though still wrong IMO. I can see days and weeks of this kind of stuff sadly. Court case still ongoing though so who knows
An injunction going forwards would be one thing, though ludicrously short notice, throwing out votes already cast is madness.
Just watching a few snips of The Donald on the campaign trail, doing one of his unscripted comic Capo schticks. Conversational. Taking the audience into his confidence. Bit like Clinton (Bill), who of all the former US Presidents he most resembles. He'll lose, but you can see why they love him, in a way that a conventional pol like Biden could never manage.
He should have a reality tv show or something....
If he used humour a bit more - of which he's capable - and employed a touch of comic self-deprecation, he might have done a lot better. People would've rooted for him despite his incapabilities which are legion. He just can't help his hatred for Obama etc take over.
Yes, he's 'right': Magna Carta wasn't written in English, and nor is article 61 relevant or still valid, but it's this endless sneering at totems of British and English history that grates with me.
People like him want to attack the keystone events, myths and stories on which this nation is built - which is important to all nations - because he sees it as an obstacle to his politics.
Lol. You're the one bringing politics into this. Stop getting wound up over nothing for goodness sake.
If you read his tweets you'll see he mocks 'patriots' and throws in 'olde Englishe mythe making' into it as well. If you don't think that's political then that's because you already agree with him, and are therefore blind to it.
He's technically ''right, but that's besides the point: generations of Englishmen (and many others around the world) have taken inspiration from a handful of the principles first articulated in it to advance the cause of individual liberty over the last 800 years, and used it as a rallying call for action. It even influenced the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights in 1948.
That's why it's important.
The Magna Carta is incredibly important and is unquestionably one of the foundation stones of individual liberty in this country. However, those who proclaim its importance while simultaneously supporting efforts to emasculate an independent judiciary, which is the only guarantor of individual liberty we have, not only deserve mockery but also deep scorn.
I totally agree with you.
As a centrist liberal who absolutely without qualification supports an independent judiciary can I just ask what precisely are the proposals to prevent them being exactly that? I know there's lots of rhetoric, but is there any substance?
For now it is emasculation rather than attacks on independence - see the Internal Market Bill, for example, and the review of judicial review currently taking place. If you take away judges' ability to hear certain kinds of cases, whether they are independent or not is immaterial. I suspect that full-scale politicisation of the judiciary, as is now happening in the US, won't happen here as not enough lawyers would play ball.
So many of the late 90s / noughties pop stars appear to have gone mental.
I'm still reeling from Robbie Williams from being a pizzagate believer.
What next Gina G retweet Alistair Hames, Baby Spice blames Covid-19 on 5G, and James Dean Bradfield enthusiastically retweeting the likes of Toby Young, James Dellingpole, and Peter Hitchens?
Robbie Williams being a nutter seems about as surprising as a bear being in the woods.
I once met Robbie Williams, back in early 2000s, he was so lovely towards me.
So many of the late 90s / noughties pop stars appear to have gone mental.
I'm still reeling from Robbie Williams from being a pizzagate believer.
What next Gina G retweet Alistair Hames, Baby Spice blames Covid-19 on 5G, and James Dean Bradfield enthusiastically retweeting the likes of Toby Young, James Dellingpole, and Peter Hitchens?
Robbie Williams being a nutter seems about as surprising as a bear being in the woods.
I once met Robbie Williams, back in early 2000s, he was so lovely towards me.
Looks like the judge in the Houston drive through voting case might be thinking of the option of allowing the votes cast to be 'legal' then make it illegal from now! That would be a compromise though still wrong IMO. I can see days and weeks of this kind of stuff sadly. Court case still ongoing though so who knows
An injunction going forwards would be one thing, though ludicrously short notice, throwing out votes already cast is madness.
I had thought the practice had already been stopped by a previous court order and that this case is just about the votes cast. Or am I wrong?
Yes, he's 'right': Magna Carta wasn't written in English, and nor is article 61 relevant or still valid, but it's this endless sneering at totems of British and English history that grates with me.
People like him want to attack the keystone events, myths and stories on which this nation is built - which is important to all nations - because he sees it as an obstacle to his politics.
It was certainly translated into English and French.
I don't think it's the killer point that he thinks it is.
Rachel Adams-Heard @racheladhe · 5m Judge Hanen appears to be making two distinctions for potential actions requested by the GOP petitioners: 1) Invalidating the 127,000 drive-thru votes cast prior to the petition and 2) Halting drive-thru voting for the remainder of the election.
I just want to comment on *why* we've not seen vaccine efficacy news yet, and why that's probably good news.
These massive trials are blinded. They give the vaccine to 10,000 people and a placebo to 10,000 people. This means 20,000 people have recieved either the vaccine or the placebo.
The participants are then monitored. Once a certain number (probably around 50) have gotten CV19, then the trial is unblinded for those 50. How many got the vaccine and how many the placebo.
If it's 25/25, then the vaccine is a clear failure (although it might still result in far more asymptomatic or low intensity infections, and therefore be very useful). If it's 50/0, then it's a massive success.
None of the trials has yet gotten the required number of CV19 cases. This is partly because the big trials are in the Southern hemisphere and as it warms up and people spend more time outdoors, the numbers of cases in Brazil and South Africa have come down sharply.
But it also suggests that people with the vaccine are not getting sick. The more time it takes to get to 50 cases, the more likely it is that the vaccine is working.
It didn't take rcs1000 long to have gotten into the habit. I bet he's gotten an accent too to go with the new vocabulary.
I hated 'gotten' when I first got here. Now I use it almost as much as 'got', and in some cases, 'gotten' feels more natural.
Looks like the judge in the Houston drive through voting case might be thinking of the option of allowing the votes cast to be 'legal' then make it illegal from now! That would be a compromise though still wrong IMO. I can see days and weeks of this kind of stuff sadly. Court case still ongoing though so who knows
An injunction going forwards would be one thing, though ludicrously short notice, throwing out votes already cast is madness.
I had thought the practice had already been stopped by a previous court order and that this case is just about the votes cast. Or am I wrong?
No it's not been stopped. The Texan courts have refused to allow this case hence it now going to the Feds.
Apparently there's an argument that it might be lawful for early voting but not for on the day voting, so could be stopped for tomorrow.
On turnout: of course the other possibility is that the final figures won't be as high as people are projecting; if so, that means fewer in-person voters tomorrow than assumed, which in turn means that Biden's large early-vote advantage will turn into a whole-election advantage. Essentially Trump's chances depend entirely on a massive in-person vote tomorrow.
In 2016 I think 60% of the vote was in-person, 82 million.
If we get the same number of in-person votes tomorrow then that's 177m votes in total, plus whatever is in the post for California and other states that allow late-arriving ballots postmarked on election day.
So you could have relatively quiet voting tomorrow and still reach a high overall turnout of 160-170m.
If "the great reset" means things like high street shops closing down and people using Amazon to buy everything it doesn't seem like a particularly far-fetched theory atm.
So Jon Ralston the respected Nevada journalist has posted his final views on the state race. As expected and the figures he's been blogging were indicating, he's putting Biden to win by around 4%. This sounds about right to me and the reasoning he gives , are, in his usual way, pretty solid. The only proviso I add is his first line 'It’s not impossible for President Donald Trump to win Nevada.' because ofc its not. But I am confident his prediction will be right though possibly having Biden 1 or 2% too low. https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/biden-will-win-nevada-blue-wave-should-help-down-ballot
Telegraph science reporter on the graph of predicted deaths that was shown to 15m viewers on BBC on Sat:
"The government is refusing to tell me what models each of these lines represent. They have shown a graph at a national press conference that they are refusing to release the key for. It's extraordinary."
They are only worrying about this now? How long ago did he say "F*** business"?
That FT article is horrible for Johnson. Horrible.
My daughter, who is not political, watched Boris's lockdown "broadcast" and pronounced it a waste of her time. She said he looked clueless and like he was making it up as he went along.
If my daughter has reached that verdict with her non-existant political antennae then Boris is in far worse trouble than the FT article indicates.
He is toast.
Boris Johnson is unquestionably the worst Prime Minister of modern times, probably of all time. He takes abysmal to places I don't think anyone could ever have imagined - even those of us who knew he would be a complete disaster.
He was bad before; then he got COVID-19 and he’s never really got back to where he was before.
If Trump loses Pennsylvania the only realistic way I can see for him to win the election overall is to hold Wisconsin and gain Nevada. (Assumes he loses Michigan).
My view, for what it's worth, is that while Biden is certainly favourite, this is not a foregone conclusion:
1. There are a number of polls where the national share is 5% or less - IBD/TIPP, Harris, Zogby, Rasmussen (yes I know but they did do well in 2016 as well as appallingly in 2018). If these polls turn out to be correct then we're in a situation where the electoral college is a toss-up. IBD/TIPP is down to 3% today.
2. The fallacy that the 2018 polls got it right. They did in the popular vote and House, but not in the Senate, where 538 had 51:49 as the strong favourite, and the eventual 53:47 was on a par with the Democrats flipping the senate in probability. Given the low number of seats contested and the even lower number of swing seats this was a big miss. Which leads to...
3. Despite the understandable reluctance to countenance it, Trump has star quality and the ability to get the vote out where it matters - including traditional non-voters. He did it in 2016 in the rust belt, and he did it in 2018 in the key senate races. This could again point towards a race where Biden wins the popular vote comfortably (and I expect him to) but Trump does just enough where it matters - and this is where pollsters have really struggled in the last 4 years.
4. And where does it matter? Again, the campaigning does not match the polls. If Biden were truly 8-10 points ahead then they'd surely be in Texas, yet Biden chose to go to Minnesota? Easy to conclude that the internal polling is much tighter than the external polling.
All that said, Biden is favourite, I would rather like the markets give him a 2 in 3 chance. But I'm not sure that what appears to be an editorial line that Biden is a certainty, that the only value is in betting on Democrat targets and that any polls predicting a tight race are incompetent or corrupt, is justified either.
I just want to comment on *why* we've not seen vaccine efficacy news yet, and why that's probably good news.
These massive trials are blinded. They give the vaccine to 10,000 people and a placebo to 10,000 people. This means 20,000 people have recieved either the vaccine or the placebo.
The participants are then monitored. Once a certain number (probably around 50) have gotten CV19, then the trial is unblinded for those 50. How many got the vaccine and how many the placebo.
If it's 25/25, then the vaccine is a clear failure (although it might still result in far more asymptomatic or low intensity infections, and therefore be very useful). If it's 50/0, then it's a massive success.
None of the trials has yet gotten the required number of CV19 cases. This is partly because the big trials are in the Southern hemisphere and as it warms up and people spend more time outdoors, the numbers of cases in Brazil and South Africa have come down sharply.
But it also suggests that people with the vaccine are not getting sick. The more time it takes to get to 50 cases, the more likely it is that the vaccine is working.
It didn't take rcs1000 long to have gotten into the habit. I bet he's gotten an accent too to go with the new vocabulary.
I hated 'gotten' when I first got here. Now I use it almost as much as 'got', and in some cases, 'gotten' feels more natural.
I've said it before, what if we ignore Florida? I suspect its going to be less relevant. I'd say the 56% on Trump winning it are only marginally too high.
This is bound to come back and kick me in the nuts...
My final EC map. Barely any change over the past several days. Biden edges closer in Florida but Trumps takes for a 0.5 point win. Nevada edges back to a 6 point Biden win.
Of the battleground Biden flips the rust belt and takes WI MI and PA. Biden also takes AZ GA and NC. Finally he takes both NE 02 and ME 02. Trump holds TX FL OH and IA.
They are only worrying about this now? How long ago did he say "F*** business"?
That FT article is horrible for Johnson. Horrible.
My daughter, who is not political, watched Boris's lockdown "broadcast" and pronounced it a waste of her time. She said he looked clueless and like he was making it up as he went along.
If my daughter has reached that verdict with her non-existant political antennae then Boris is in far worse trouble than the FT article indicates.
He is toast.
Boris Johnson is unquestionably the worst Prime Minister of modern times, probably of all time. He takes abysmal to places I don't think anyone could ever have imagined - even those of us who knew he would be a complete disaster.
He was bad before; then he got COVID-19 and he’s never really got back to where he was before.
He's doing his job. Perhaps not even slightly well, but doing so in these times is no sinecure.
I think he's doing ok. I am very happy that he's the PM in this time of crisis.
My final EC map. Barely any change over the past several days. Biden edges closer in Florida but Trumps takes for a 0.5 point win. Nevada edges back to a 6 point Biden win.
Of the battleground Biden flips the rust belt and takes WI MI and PA. Biden also takes AZ GA and NC. Finally he takes both NE 02 and ME 02. Trump holds TX FL OH and IA.
Totals Biden 322 .. Trump 216
Interestingly, that's tighter than your prediction in 2016 which was Clinton 341 .. Trump 197.
4. And where does it matter? Again, the campaigning does not match the polls. If Biden were truly 8-10 points ahead then they'd surely be in Texas, yet Biden chose to go to Minnesota? Easy to conclude that the internal polling is much tighter than the external polling.
Why would they go to Texas? There's marginal down ballot advantages of winning big, you get to be president for four years whether you win with 270 or 413 so make sure you secure 270. They are campaigning in the places with higher election day voting rather than TX, FL and NC which with the early vote the result is mostly baked in.
They are only worrying about this now? How long ago did he say "F*** business"?
That FT article is horrible for Johnson. Horrible.
My daughter, who is not political, watched Boris's lockdown "broadcast" and pronounced it a waste of her time. She said he looked clueless and like he was making it up as he went along.
If my daughter has reached that verdict with her non-existant political antennae then Boris is in far worse trouble than the FT article indicates.
He is toast.
Boris Johnson is unquestionably the worst Prime Minister of modern times, probably of all time. He takes abysmal to places I don't think anyone could ever have imagined - even those of us who knew he would be a complete disaster.
He was bad before; then he got COVID-19 and he’s never really got back to where he was before.
Johnson was the most excruciatingly awful Foreign Secretary. That was way before Covid.
Expectations for Johnson's Prime Ministerial performance were always incredibly low. I am not sure Covid made him noticeably worse.
The race is tightening towards Trump, but I think he's about 3% short of where he needs to be.
In key states he's getting to a polling error, or electoral shenanigans, away from victory. I don't think high turnout helps him though.
I agree with this. for all his 'star power' he has a ceiling of those who will vote for him, I dont think its high enough even in the swing states to get him all the way home. On the other hand there are voters who will vote this time who didn't in 2016, a main one being Biden isn't Clinton. So I agree the higher the turnout the worse it is for Trump, even if he does match or even increase his vote share from 2016. One final thing even though voting will be up and EV has been unbelievable, I dont think the total votes will be as high as some think, higher than 2016, for sure , but I think Covid and talk of fraud will dampen on the day voting a little, and that is likely to hurt Trump a bit too. In the current pandemic climate I can see less voting on the day than would have otherwise.
Other models/pundits DDHQ LeanTossup New Statesman ASI Sabato Jack_W -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Probability of Biden win 87% 96% 90% N/A N/A N/A Biden ECVs: 317 384 338 367 321 322
NB Full ECV probability distribution not available for these models. Unclear whether headline ECV figures are mean or expected value. Sabato: FL,TX,OH,IA,ME-02 lean Trump, GA,NC,PA,AZ,NE-02 lean Biden Jack_W: FL,TX,OH,IA Trump, GA,NC,PA,AZ NE-02 ME-02 Biden. FL very close.
Just to make it clear again as I no people here love to bring up my record, I am not making a prediction.
I am sure whoever gets it wrong will have their record brought up constantly won't they? That would be fair, bollocks they will though
If you didn’t keep bringing it up, it might fairly quickly be forgotten.
It doesn't make any difference. I'll just be sure to bring up those who get it wrong in return.
Bad predictions are part of the fun, Roger is a PB legend for so many reasons, his Oscar tips have been so profitable for so long, but he's also famous for when Mike back in 2004 tipped Barack Obama as the President in 2008 at 50/1 Roger said No.
Back in 2015 I said backing Donald Trump as next President at 150/1 was wasting your money.
The race is tightening towards Trump, but I think he's about 3% short of where he needs to be.
In key states he's getting to a polling error, or electoral shenanigans, away from victory. I don't think high turnout helps him though.
I agree with this. for all his 'star power' he has a ceiling of those who will vote for him, I dont think its high enough even in the swing states to get him all the way home. On the other hand there are voters who will vote this time who didn't in 2016, a main one being Biden isn't Clinton. So I agree the higher the turnout the worse it is for Trump, even if he does match or even increase his vote share from 2016. One final thing even though voting will be up and EV has been unbelievable, I dont think the total votes will be as high as some think, higher than 2016, for sure , but I think Covid and talk of fraud will dampen on the day voting a little, and that is likely to hurt Trump a bit too. In the current pandemic climate I can see less voting on the day than would have otherwise.
When I say talk of fraud I mean simply the fact it might put some off voting at all, perhaps not many but it may be a factor.
They are only worrying about this now? How long ago did he say "F*** business"?
That FT article is horrible for Johnson. Horrible.
My daughter, who is not political, watched Boris's lockdown "broadcast" and pronounced it a waste of her time. She said he looked clueless and like he was making it up as he went along.
If my daughter has reached that verdict with her non-existant political antennae then Boris is in far worse trouble than the FT article indicates.
He is toast.
Boris Johnson is unquestionably the worst Prime Minister of modern times, probably of all time. He takes abysmal to places I don't think anyone could ever have imagined - even those of us who knew he would be a complete disaster.
He was bad before; then he got COVID-19 and he’s never really got back to where he was before.
Johnson was the most excruciatingly awful Foreign Secretary. That was way before Covid.
Expectations for Johnson's Prime Ministerial performance were always incredibly low. I am not sure Covid made him noticeably worse.
He has, at times he he totally balls up by misreading / misunderstanding basic questions. It goes beyond his historic record for bluster and bullshit.
Also you see how he runs out of energy. After 30 mins and he goes downhill rapidly.
They are only worrying about this now? How long ago did he say "F*** business"?
That FT article is horrible for Johnson. Horrible.
My daughter, who is not political, watched Boris's lockdown "broadcast" and pronounced it a waste of her time. She said he looked clueless and like he was making it up as he went along.
If my daughter has reached that verdict with her non-existant political antennae then Boris is in far worse trouble than the FT article indicates.
He is toast.
Boris Johnson is unquestionably the worst Prime Minister of modern times, probably of all time. He takes abysmal to places I don't think anyone could ever have imagined - even those of us who knew he would be a complete disaster.
Other models/pundits DDHQ LeanTossup New Statesman ASI Sabato Jack_W -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Probability of Biden win 87% 96% 90% N/A N/A N/A Biden ECVs: 317 384 338 367 321 322
NB Full ECV probability distribution not available for these models. Unclear whether headline ECV figures are mean or expected value. Sabato: FL,TX,OH,IA,ME-02 lean Trump, GA,NC,PA,AZ,NE-02 lean Biden Jack_W: FL,TX,OH,IA Trump, GA,NC,PA,AZ NE-02 ME-02 Biden. FL very close.
My final EC map. Barely any change over the past several days. Biden edges closer in Florida but Trumps takes for a 0.5 point win. Nevada edges back to a 6 point Biden win.
Of the battleground Biden flips the rust belt and takes WI MI and PA. Biden also takes AZ GA and NC. Finally he takes both NE 02 and ME 02. Trump holds TX FL OH and IA.
My final EC map. Barely any change over the past several days. Biden edges closer in Florida but Trumps takes for a 0.5 point win. Nevada edges back to a 6 point Biden win.
Of the battleground Biden flips the rust belt and takes WI MI and PA. Biden also takes AZ GA and NC. Finally he takes both NE 02 and ME 02. Trump holds TX FL OH and IA.
Totals Biden 322 .. Trump 216
Interestingly, that's tighter than your prediction in 2016 which was Clinton 341 .. Trump 197.
Indeed I failed to account for the higher white working class turnout and the down tick in the minority vote. Interestingly a less than one point swing through MI WI PA and FL would have brought a Clinton 338/200 - Thin margins
I just want to comment on *why* we've not seen vaccine efficacy news yet, and why that's probably good news.
These massive trials are blinded. They give the vaccine to 10,000 people and a placebo to 10,000 people. This means 20,000 people have recieved either the vaccine or the placebo.
The participants are then monitored. Once a certain number (probably around 50) have gotten CV19, then the trial is unblinded for those 50. How many got the vaccine and how many the placebo.
If it's 25/25, then the vaccine is a clear failure (although it might still result in far more asymptomatic or low intensity infections, and therefore be very useful). If it's 50/0, then it's a massive success.
None of the trials has yet gotten the required number of CV19 cases. This is partly because the big trials are in the Southern hemisphere and as it warms up and people spend more time outdoors, the numbers of cases in Brazil and South Africa have come down sharply.
But it also suggests that people with the vaccine are not getting sick. The more time it takes to get to 50 cases, the more likely it is that the vaccine is working.
Given what's at stake (and I get the ethics) why not call for volunteers to take a shot of the virus and give them a million quid each for it?
The problem with them, though, is that the virus is primarily one of the upper respiratory tract. An injection of the virus directly into the bloodstream is a very different way to get it, so you may get different results - either worse for the participant as they are overwhelmed by the virus or better as the immune system gets a good look at it early.
Good point.
Maybe getting someone infected to breath at you for several hours is a bit strong.
4. And where does it matter? Again, the campaigning does not match the polls. If Biden were truly 8-10 points ahead then they'd surely be in Texas, yet Biden chose to go to Minnesota? Easy to conclude that the internal polling is much tighter than the external polling.
Why would they go to Texas? There's marginal down ballot advantages of winning big, you get to be president for four years whether you win with 270 or 413 so make sure you secure 270. They are campaigning in the places with higher election day voting rather than TX, FL and NC which with the early vote the result is mostly baked in.
Because they see the chance to at least break the GOP trifecta at state level in Texas, which means a much less GOP-favouring Congressional map for the next ten years.
My final EC map. Barely any change over the past several days. Biden edges closer in Florida but Trumps takes for a 0.5 point win. Nevada edges back to a 6 point Biden win.
Of the battleground Biden flips the rust belt and takes WI MI and PA. Biden also takes AZ GA and NC. Finally he takes both NE 02 and ME 02. Trump holds TX FL OH and IA.
Totals Biden 322 .. Trump 216
Interestingly, that's tighter than your prediction in 2016 which was Clinton 341 .. Trump 197.
Yes, he's 'right': Magna Carta wasn't written in English, and nor is article 61 relevant or still valid, but it's this endless sneering at totems of British and English history that grates with me.
People like him want to attack the keystone events, myths and stories on which this nation is built - which is important to all nations - because he sees it as an obstacle to his politics.
Lol. You're the one bringing politics into this. Stop getting wound up over nothing for goodness sake.
If you read his tweets you'll see he mocks 'patriots' and throws in 'olde Englishe mythe making' into it as well. If you don't think that's political then that's because you already agree with him, and are therefore blind to it.
He's technically ''right, but that's besides the point: generations of Englishmen (and many others around the world) have taken inspiration from a handful of the principles first articulated in it to advance the cause of individual liberty over the last 800 years, and used it as a rallying call for action. It even influenced the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights in 1948.
That's why it's important.
The Magna Carta is incredibly important and is unquestionably one of the foundation stones of individual liberty in this country. However, those who proclaim its importance while simultaneously supporting efforts to emasculate an independent judiciary, which is the only guarantor of individual liberty we have, not only deserve mockery but also deep scorn.
I totally agree with you.
As a centrist liberal who absolutely without qualification supports an independent judiciary can I just ask what precisely are the proposals to prevent them being exactly that? I know there's lots of rhetoric, but is there any substance?
At present, I think it's the rhetoric on judges and lawyers and the proposal to review how the courts/legal system works with human rights post Brexit.
My final EC map. Barely any change over the past several days. Biden edges closer in Florida but Trumps takes for a 0.5 point win. Nevada edges back to a 6 point Biden win.
Of the battleground Biden flips the rust belt and takes WI MI and PA. Biden also takes AZ GA and NC. Finally he takes both NE 02 and ME 02. Trump holds TX FL OH and IA.
They are only worrying about this now? How long ago did he say "F*** business"?
That FT article is horrible for Johnson. Horrible.
My daughter, who is not political, watched Boris's lockdown "broadcast" and pronounced it a waste of her time. She said he looked clueless and like he was making it up as he went along.
If my daughter has reached that verdict with her non-existant political antennae then Boris is in far worse trouble than the FT article indicates.
He is toast.
Boris Johnson is unquestionably the worst Prime Minister of modern times, probably of all time. He takes abysmal to places I don't think anyone could ever have imagined - even those of us who knew he would be a complete disaster.
Move over Lord North?
I'd like to see a reasoned critique of North. OK the whole colonial war thing, but in those days the generals/admirals on the ground lost wars, not PMs. He lasted 12 years in office and managed the quite tricky feat of being CotE as well as PM for at least some of those, and it seems unjust to compare him to ephemeral pygmies like May and Johnson.
The great irony of this is that every cycle people talk about the black vote, the Latino vote. Biden's large national margin is probably being driven by the white vote. If Trump drops to below 55% of the white vote he is done and the signs are he is below that.
They are only worrying about this now? How long ago did he say "F*** business"?
That FT article is horrible for Johnson. Horrible.
My daughter, who is not political, watched Boris's lockdown "broadcast" and pronounced it a waste of her time. She said he looked clueless and like he was making it up as he went along.
If my daughter has reached that verdict with her non-existant political antennae then Boris is in far worse trouble than the FT article indicates.
He is toast.
Boris Johnson is unquestionably the worst Prime Minister of modern times, probably of all time. He takes abysmal to places I don't think anyone could ever have imagined - even those of us who knew he would be a complete disaster.
Move over Lord North?
I'd like to see a reasoned critique of North. OK the whole colonial war thing, but in those days the generals/admirals on the ground lost wars, not PMs. He lasted 12 years in office and managed the quite tricky feat of being CotE as well as PM for at least some of those, and it seems unjust to compare him to ephemeral pygmies like May and Johnson.
Isn't it the Intolerable Acts rather than the war itself which he is mainly condemned for?
Had he not gone down the road of having the Intolerable Acts then the war might have been avoided.
Comments
The problem with them, though, is that the virus is primarily one of the upper respiratory tract. An injection of the virus directly into the bloodstream is a very different way to get it, so you may get different results - either worse for the participant as they are overwhelmed by the virus or better as the immune system gets a good look at it early.
It was Chicken Pox. He got it on the same day.
Assuming an 18% increase from that as per the EV Blog I posted today we are at 59.1% of 2020 likely Turnout
If my daughter has reached that verdict with her non-existant political antennae then Boris is in far worse trouble than the FT article indicates.
He is toast.
What next Gina G retweeting Alistair Hames 'trend lines', Baby Spice blames Covid-19 on 5G, and James Dean Bradfield enthusiastically retweeting the likes of Toby Young, James Dellingpole, and Peter Hitchens?
He just can't help his hatred for Obama etc take over.
I don't think it's the killer point that he thinks it is.
Rachel Adams-Heard
@racheladhe
·
5m
Judge Hanen appears to be making two distinctions for potential actions requested by the GOP petitioners: 1) Invalidating the 127,000 drive-thru votes cast prior to the petition and 2) Halting drive-thru voting for the remainder of the election.
Apparently there's an argument that it might be lawful for early voting but not for on the day voting, so could be stopped for tomorrow.
If we get the same number of in-person votes tomorrow then that's 177m votes in total, plus whatever is in the post for California and other states that allow late-arriving ballots postmarked on election day.
So you could have relatively quiet voting tomorrow and still reach a high overall turnout of 160-170m.
The polls seem to have been remarkably stable and if anything slightly lengthen against Trump. Not seen anything tighten yet.
https://www.txs.uscourts.gov/
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/biden-will-win-nevada-blue-wave-should-help-down-ballot
"The government is refusing to tell me what models each of these lines represent. They have shown a graph at a national press conference that they are refusing to release the key for. It's extraordinary."
1. There are a number of polls where the national share is 5% or less - IBD/TIPP, Harris, Zogby, Rasmussen (yes I know but they did do well in 2016 as well as appallingly in 2018). If these polls turn out to be correct then we're in a situation where the electoral college is a toss-up. IBD/TIPP is down to 3% today.
2. The fallacy that the 2018 polls got it right. They did in the popular vote and House, but not in the Senate, where 538 had 51:49 as the strong favourite, and the eventual 53:47 was on a par with the Democrats flipping the senate in probability. Given the low number of seats contested and the even lower number of swing seats this was a big miss. Which leads to...
3. Despite the understandable reluctance to countenance it, Trump has star quality and the ability to get the vote out where it matters - including traditional non-voters. He did it in 2016 in the rust belt, and he did it in 2018 in the key senate races. This could again point towards a race where Biden wins the popular vote comfortably (and I expect him to) but Trump does just enough where it matters - and this is where pollsters have really struggled in the last 4 years.
4. And where does it matter? Again, the campaigning does not match the polls. If Biden were truly 8-10 points ahead then they'd surely be in Texas, yet Biden chose to go to Minnesota? Easy to conclude that the internal polling is much tighter than the external polling.
All that said, Biden is favourite, I would rather like the markets give him a 2 in 3 chance. But I'm not sure that what appears to be an editorial line that Biden is a certainty, that the only value is in betting on Democrat targets and that any polls predicting a tight race are incompetent or corrupt, is justified either.
This is bound to come back and kick me in the nuts...
Of the battleground Biden flips the rust belt and takes WI MI and PA. Biden also takes AZ GA and NC. Finally he takes both NE 02 and ME 02. Trump holds TX FL OH and IA.
Totals Biden 322 .. Trump 216
I think he's doing ok. I am very happy that he's the PM in this time of crisis.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/1331624#Comment_1331624
Expectations for Johnson's Prime Ministerial performance were always incredibly low. I am not sure Covid made him noticeably worse.
But I might be wrong!
One final thing even though voting will be up and EV has been unbelievable, I dont think the total votes will be as high as some think, higher than 2016, for sure , but I think Covid and talk of fraud will dampen on the day voting a little, and that is likely to hurt Trump a bit too. In the current pandemic climate I can see less voting on the day than would have otherwise.
Back in 2015 I said backing Donald Trump as next President at 150/1 was wasting your money.
Just enjoy bad predictions as much good ones.
https://twitter.com/Tucker5law/status/1323335843000602624?s=20
Also you see how he runs out of energy. After 30 mins and he goes downhill rapidly.
Maybe getting someone infected to breath at you for several hours is a bit strong.
Aerosol?
Florida: Likely voters
Biden 47%
Trump 42%
Ohio: Likely voters
Biden 47%
Trump 43%
National: Likely voters
Biden 50%
Trump 39%
The latter is more likely than the former, but the former is still possible and one must be wary of splitting the difference if one can't decide.
FLORIDA: Biden 47%, Trump 42%
OHIO: Biden 47%, Trump 43%
NATIONAL: Biden 50%, Trump 39%
https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3683
But Biden could take FL and GA, making it 351 - 187
Had he not gone down the road of having the Intolerable Acts then the war might have been avoided.