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In spite of latest polls Trump is a 56% chance on Betfair to retain Florida – politicalbetting.com
In spite of latest polls Trump is a 56% chance on Betfair to retain Florida – politicalbetting.com
My only eve of election bet has been on Biden in Florida where the latest round of polls as collated by MSNBC above has him with a fighting chance of victory.
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Biden 49.5% and Trump 45.4%.
4 way it is Biden 48.8%, Trump 45.6%, Jorgensen 2.1%, Hawkins 0.9% and 2% refuse to say
https://www.investors.com/news/trump-vs-biden-poll-race-tight-ibd-tipp-presidential-poll/
Although certainly possible if, contrary to polling, Biden outperforms Clinton among hispanics and underperforms, relatively, among whites.
Minnesota - Arizona - Nevada - Florida, losing Michigan and Pennsylvania. Not really consistent with the polls.
I appreciate that it's not always easy to understand written English at a basic level so I will spell it out for you as you are, as evidenced by your posting on PB, extremely stupid.
I am not criticising people for panic buying. I am explaining to dickheads such as yourself that the circumstances which lead people to panic buy are now established. People will panic buy if they perceive there is a risk to supply. This happened recently in March-May and appears to be happening now, albeit in a more limited way.
Whenever anyone has advanced the idea of empty shelves on account of Brexit, complete arseholes such as yourself have said this is Project Fear.
But it has happened before and might be happening now and if you think the merest hint of supply problems come the end of the transition period will not result in it happening again then, frankly, you really need someone to put you out of your misery.
Dems to hold the House - 1.18 - Betway
GOP to win Alabama Senate Seat - 1.167 - Skybet
Kanye West to win over 50,000 votes nationally - 1.95 - Betway
Biden to win AZ/FL/GA/TX - 9 - Betfred
(Some odds may have changed, but these were right over the weekend)
How many of those people do you honestly think have been reached and polled by democrat-leaning pollsters trying to assess the state?
How many would give those pollsters the time of day?
However there is a wide divergence eg two polls in Iowa over the last 24 hours have shown gap down to 2% whilst the other Biden ahead by 1%, different to the trusted local paper 7% for Trump. Then we have good old Trafalgar Group currently way out of step with the others in the Rust Belt States, but they got it as right as anyone last time. IBBD very close to their forecast last time which again was very accurate.
I will be pleasantly surprised if Biden hangs on. If not, we should fear for the future, both short and long term, whether we are right, left or centre. BUT we are where we are.
What happens if Biden wins by 10%, as some polls are predicting and loses in the College, there will be mayhem.
FL, PA and OH (I think - some states I didn't check, someone better at coding than me could do this automatically I'm sure).
FL: 538 says 68% chance vs. betfair on 44%.
PA: 538 says 87% chance vs. betfair on 65%.
OH: 538 says 49% chance vs. betfair on 31%.
To my mind, that makes Florida and PA excellent value.
- Trump to get over 70m votes (hat-tip @kinabalu on the previous thread) @ 1.81 Betfair Exchange
- Trump to win North Carolina @ 2.1 (SpreadEx, now shortened to Evens)
In both cases I'm trying to balance my risk a bit since I've got an open Buy on Biden at SPIN at an effective 284.
New Hampshire might be worth considering for Trump. Biden only took 8.4% in the Democratic Primary, coming fifth.
Democrat institutions and the mainstream media have demonised and vilified Trump supporters to an enormous extent. To Dems, they are openly just racist redneck scum Openly supporting Trump can be a career decision.
Pollsters who are honest will tell you some republican people are extremely cagey, especially when anonymity is not continually stressed and guaranteed.
I got this from a pollster who does a two hour show every day on his results and experiences.
My map is currently 384 Biden, 125 Trump with FL as a toss up. Forced choice, it goes Biden, so 413/125. Best case, Biden mops up IA, so 419/119.
For the Senate, I have Dems +6.
House, I haven't bothered looking at, but foresee more Dem pick ups there too.
Does that mean that hedge funds are the ultimate evil? Of course not. Does that mean they are incapable of harm? Take the first sentence of your comment and replace the third word with its antonym.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/PwVX8
This was in order to be able to back Biden at 1/2 for a small but virtually guaranteed win + importantly a freeroll for the double up if Biden wins with -52% (quite likely imo).
None of this is saying he cant win, but it wont be the 50.000 covid spreaders at that rally it will be those not there who vote 'shyly'.
No.
Soros spotted the pressures the pound was under and added to it but the pressure was there already. Ditto a generation later with the hedge funds.
Both times the real problems were, as they almost always are, the fundamentals not those with the foresight to see what is going wrong.
Hedge funds didn't make Brown remove the BoE's oversight of the market.
Hedge funds didn't make RBS pay over the odds overleveraging itself to buy ABN Amro.
Hedge funds didn't make sovereign governments max out their deficit during growth years.
The idea hedge funds created the financial crisis is preposterous. Many bad decisions over more than a decade led to it.
https://amp.theguardian.com/sport/2020/nov/01/golf-tennis-and-swimming-reprieves-from-covid-ban-government-boris-johnson
Note that the article is obviously written with an agenda and oversimplifies, but it would be delusional to pretend that the mechanisms were not occurring. How great a contribution they made can be debated, and if someone with expertise wants to argue that it was small, I'll listen with an open mind. However calling it nonsense sounds ideological rather than rational.
It wasn't the only factor contributing to the so-called polling failure (which wasn't actually all that bad) but it was a material one.
In 2018 the Democrats got 60 million votes ie only 5 million less than the 65 million Hillary got in 2016, the GOP only got 50 million votes in 2018 though, a huge 12 million fewer than the 62 million who voted for Trump in 2016.
I think the best value bet is probably Biden to be President.
Biden POTUS: 538 says 90% vs betfair on 66%
The relative value in backing Biden to be POTUS doesn't look as good as backing Biden to win Florida say. But the probability of the bet landing is, of course, significantly more likely.
The thing is with a decent position already on Biden I'm reluctant to stump up a big stake at short odds to make the additional bet worth winning. But Biden to be POTUS at current odds does look huge value.
Decisions, decisions ......
Look you can believe the polls are accurate or not. To me they always looked wrong because Biden is the worst candidate ever put forward for election in a major Western democracy ever. I went searching for answers as to why the polls might be wrong. I found a few, though they were not comprehensive and I bet accordingly.
I wonder if those who are wrong whomever they may be will acknowledge they were and contemplate why. If Trump wins now I will certainly be wrong.
In 2018 they were in full Russia impeachment mode.
They reckoned that a lot of people lived with nothing in the cupboard. Bought for tonights dinner etc.... And then they suddenly decided to fill the kitchen cabinets.....
In 2018 Trump was not on the ballot, there was no shy GOP vote in 2018 or 2014 and there was no shy Romney vote in 2012 either, there was a shy Trump vote in 2016 and a surge of white working class voters for Trump in 2016 in the rustbelt, voters who did not bother to vote in 2018.
In 2018 the Democrats got 60 million votes ie only 5 million less than the 65 million Hillary got in 2016, the GOP only got 50 million votes in 2018 though, a huge 12 million fewer than the 62 million who voted for Trump in 2016.
That's a reason why the Republicans lost.
Not a reason why Rasmussen got it so badly wrong.
That is, Proud Boys!
"Republicans to win Florida, Democrats to win Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona and New Hampshire" at 7/1
Trump 200-249 ECV at 4/1
Biden to win Florida at 11/10
Disappointingly 6/5 widely available on that last bet now.
Some cash spare for on the night wagering.
Therefore time for national response and shed loads of cash forthwith.
No longer " unfair on Cornwall". Naturally.
The moment we start getting serious numbers from Florida, we'll start getting useful information on how key demographics such as the suburbs, older voters, rural America etc., are voting. Pretty much the only information we won't start getting in reasonable quantity is how Hispanic (non-Cuban) Americans will vote, because Florida's Hispanics don't look like the rest of the US.
Blaming the 'gnomes of Zurich'
Blaming George Soros
Blaming short-sellers
Blaming Hedge Funds
It's the same silly story, almost always from a position of great ignorance.
(There was also some anti-Semitism mixed in with some of these, but that's not true of the most recent couple, except on the loonier fringes of Corbynism).
https://order-order.com/2020/11/02/jolyons-knocks-his-builders-for-490000-loses-legal-battle-against-them-the-case-continues/
My gut feeling is that Florida is now 50/50. I will be astonsihed if Trump wins PA.
Joe Biden was neither when he was at his peak. Now, I am sorry to say, he is far below his peak.
Until they were gently reminded of who (mostly) buys them, and why..... oh and the fact that sales of the big sacks of rice hadn't changed much.
Worse that Adolph Hitler in 1932, when he ran (and lost) for President of Germany?
It's perfectly possible that Trump wins, and if he does, my money would be on in being because there was a failure to correctly weight rural and High School educated voters.
'Can you explain to me exactly what a hedge fund or short seller does?'
The silence is golden.
I actually think a number of people are leaking. You can see it in the likes of the Mail writeup of the timeline of events, it reads like different people all trying to get their excuse in.