They are only worrying about this now? How long ago did he say "F*** business"?
That FT article is horrible for Johnson. Horrible.
My daughter, who is not political, watched Boris's lockdown "broadcast" and pronounced it a waste of her time. She said he looked clueless and like he was making it up as he went along.
If my daughter has reached that verdict with her non-existant political antennae then Boris is in far worse trouble than the FT article indicates.
He is toast.
Boris Johnson is unquestionably the worst Prime Minister of modern times, probably of all time. He takes abysmal to places I don't think anyone could ever have imagined - even those of us who knew he would be a complete disaster.
Move over Lord North?
I'd like to see a reasoned critique of North. OK the whole colonial war thing, but in those days the generals/admirals on the ground lost wars, not PMs. He lasted 12 years in office and managed the quite tricky feat of being CotE as well as PM for at least some of those, and it seems unjust to compare him to ephemeral pygmies like May and Johnson.
Isn't it the Intolerable Acts rather than the war itself which he is mainly condemned for?
Had he not gone down the road of having the Intolerable Acts then the war might have been avoided.
Just to make it clear again as I no people here love to bring up my record, I am not making a prediction.
I am sure whoever gets it wrong will have their record brought up constantly won't they? That would be fair, bollocks they will though
If you didn’t keep bringing it up, it might fairly quickly be forgotten.
It doesn't make any difference. I'll just be sure to bring up those who get it wrong in return.
Bad predictions are part of the fun, Roger is a PB legend for so many reasons, his Oscar tips have been so profitable for so long, but he's also famous for when Mike back in 2004 tipped Barack Obama as the President in 2008 at 50/1 Roger said No.
Back in 2015 I said backing Donald Trump as next President at 150/1 was wasting your money.
Just enjoy bad predictions as much good ones.
It wasn't so much what Roger said but how. We all make bad calls, but his was the first post of the thread and comprised the solitary word 'No'.
In truth Roger is generally no worse a tipster than anybody else in matters not relating to the Oscars, where he is a star as you rightly point out.
The 'Rogerdamus' theme is one of the best long-running jokes on PB. Happily he takes it very well and joins in the fun.
The pineapple pizzas jokes are likewise all good fun. Some matters however are less funny....
Like the time JackW cheated me out of the Annual Tipster of the Year award.
So many of the late 90s / noughties pop stars appear to have gone mental.
I'm still reeling from Robbie Williams from being a pizzagate believer.
What next Gina G retweet Alistair Hames, Baby Spice blames Covid-19 on 5G, and James Dean Bradfield enthusiastically retweeting the likes of Toby Young, James Dellingpole, and Peter Hitchens?
Robbie Williams being a nutter seems about as surprising as a bear being in the woods.
is this Ian Brown person someone we should have heard of?
My final EC map. Barely any change over the past several days. Biden edges closer in Florida but Trumps takes for a 0.5 point win. Nevada edges back to a 6 point Biden win.
Of the battleground Biden flips the rust belt and takes WI MI and PA. Biden also takes AZ GA and NC. Finally he takes both NE 02 and ME 02. Trump holds TX FL OH and IA.
The great irony of this is that every cycle people talk about the black vote, the Latino vote. Biden's large national margin is probably being driven by the white vote. If Trump drops to below 55% of the white vote he is done and the signs are he is below that.
Things continue to get worse and worse and worse tonight.
Just as an explosive blast of diarrhoea follows a dodgy curry, so Lockdown 2.0 has been swiftly followed by Panic Buying 2.0. The locusts have been out in force demolishing the shelves in Tesco today. Not quite as bad as March - the tinned food supply hasn't been cleared out yet - but heading that way at a rate of knots. Almost all the fruit and veg except onions and potatoes stripped clean or in very short supply. Ditto the meat, apart from bacon and sausages. Almost no flour. Almost no pasta. Almost no eggs. Bread down by about two-thirds and (inevitably) most of the bog roll also gone. One was reduced to going back and forth through the shop trying to recompute this weeks' dinners based on the surviving resources. I think I managed to get all the right stuff.
It'll be nothing but booze, biscuits and vile vegan ready meals by the end of the week. If the Government's so bloody fixated on Covid to the exclusion of everything else then they would do well to put the population out of its misery and shoot us all. The virus will be eradicated if all the hosts are dead. Result.
Unless there are a hell of a lot of Karens and Barbaras, people with common names appear to skew Republican. Emergency legislation being drafted as we speak?
Things continue to get worse and worse and worse tonight.
Just as an explosive blast of diarrhoea follows a dodgy curry, so Lockdown 2.0 has been swiftly followed by Panic Buying 2.0. The locusts have been out in force demolishing the shelves in Tesco today. Not quite as bad as March - the tinned food supply hasn't been cleared out yet - but heading that way at a rate of knots. Almost all the fruit and veg except onions and potatoes stripped clean or in very short supply. Ditto the meat, apart from bacon and sausages. Almost no flour. Almost no pasta. Almost no eggs. Bread down by about two-thirds and (inevitably) most of the bog roll also gone. One was reduced to going back and forth through the shop trying to recompute this weeks' dinners based on the surviving resources. I think I managed to get all the right stuff.
It'll be nothing but booze, biscuits and vile vegan ready meals by the end of the week. If the Government's so bloody fixated on Covid to the exclusion of everything else then they would do well to put the population out of its misery and shoot us all. The virus will be eradicated if all the hosts are dead. Result.
Lol! I hope you feel better getting that off your chest @Black_Rook.
Doing an age segmented new case rate seven day average to get a handle on which age groups are most and least affected. The data pull is fucking terrible as it's split by gender and they don't use the same rows for male and female data so a row containing female data has a bunch of null values where the male data columns are and vice versa. I just don't understand why they've done it this way instead of using a single row for all data, it's so much additional ETL work to fix their fuck up.
They are only worrying about this now? How long ago did he say "F*** business"?
That FT article is horrible for Johnson. Horrible.
My daughter, who is not political, watched Boris's lockdown "broadcast" and pronounced it a waste of her time. She said he looked clueless and like he was making it up as he went along.
If my daughter has reached that verdict with her non-existant political antennae then Boris is in far worse trouble than the FT article indicates.
He is toast.
Boris Johnson is unquestionably the worst Prime Minister of modern times, probably of all time. He takes abysmal to places I don't think anyone could ever have imagined - even those of us who knew he would be a complete disaster.
He was bad before; then he got COVID-19 and he’s never really got back to where he was before.
Johnson was the most excruciatingly awful Foreign Secretary. That was way before Covid.
Expectations for Johnson's Prime Ministerial performance were always incredibly low. I am not sure Covid made him noticeably worse.
He has, at times he he totally balls up by misreading / misunderstanding basic questions. It goes beyond his historic record for bluster and bullshit.
Also you see how he runs out of energy. After 30 mins and he goes downhill rapidly.
Agreed. Boris was unsuitable before and worse after Covid-19. It is the same at PMQs. He misses the point and tires easily. Nonetheless, in terms of achievement rather than appearance, David Cameron is still our worst Prime Minister since Lord North. This is partly because Boris has not really done much at all but there is still time.
Just to make it clear again as I no people here love to bring up my record, I am not making a prediction.
I am sure whoever gets it wrong will have their record brought up constantly won't they? That would be fair, bollocks they will though
If you didn’t keep bringing it up, it might fairly quickly be forgotten.
It doesn't make any difference. I'll just be sure to bring up those who get it wrong in return.
Bad predictions are part of the fun, Roger is a PB legend for so many reasons, his Oscar tips have been so profitable for so long, but he's also famous for when Mike back in 2004 tipped Barack Obama as the President in 2008 at 50/1 Roger said No.
Back in 2015 I said backing Donald Trump as next President at 150/1 was wasting your money.
Just enjoy bad predictions as much good ones.
It wasn't so much what Roger said but how. We all make bad calls, but his was the first post of the thread and comprised the solitary word 'No'.
In truth Roger is generally no worse a tipster than anybody else in matters not relating to the Oscars, where he is a star as you rightly point out.
The 'Rogerdamus' theme is one of the best long-running jokes on PB. Happily he takes it very well and joins in the fun.
The pineapple pizzas jokes are likewise all good fun. Some matters however are less funny....
Like the time JackW cheated me out of the Annual Tipster of the Year award.
What, he insisted that all the votes be counted - including the mail-in ballots and the drive throughs ...??? What an dastardly evil dastard he is.
Just to make it clear again as I no people here love to bring up my record, I am not making a prediction.
I am sure whoever gets it wrong will have their record brought up constantly won't they? That would be fair, bollocks they will though
If you didn’t keep bringing it up, it might fairly quickly be forgotten.
It doesn't make any difference. I'll just be sure to bring up those who get it wrong in return.
Bad predictions are part of the fun, Roger is a PB legend for so many reasons, his Oscar tips have been so profitable for so long, but he's also famous for when Mike back in 2004 tipped Barack Obama as the President in 2008 at 50/1 Roger said No.
Back in 2015 I said backing Donald Trump as next President at 150/1 was wasting your money.
Just enjoy bad predictions as much good ones.
It wasn't so much what Roger said but how. We all make bad calls, but his was the first post of the thread and comprised the solitary word 'No'.
In truth Roger is generally no worse a tipster than anybody else in matters not relating to the Oscars, where he is a star as you rightly point out.
The 'Rogerdamus' theme is one of the best long-running jokes on PB. Happily he takes it very well and joins in the fun.
The pineapple pizzas jokes are likewise all good fun. Some matters however are less funny....
Like the time JackW cheated me out of the Annual Tipster of the Year award.
Are you saying I'm the "GOP Voter Suppression King of PB" ...
Don't know how many of you share this feeling but despite it's high rating by 538 I find Q's polling suspiciously pro-Dem. I treat these numbers with caution.
This illustrates another bugbear. There is no actual major incident in this declared major incident, just sheer weight of numbers of mundane, everyday incidents.
So many of the late 90s / noughties pop stars appear to have gone mental.
I'm still reeling from Robbie Williams from being a pizzagate believer.
What next Gina G retweet Alistair Hames, Baby Spice blames Covid-19 on 5G, and James Dean Bradfield enthusiastically retweeting the likes of Toby Young, James Dellingpole, and Peter Hitchens?
Robbie Williams being a nutter seems about as surprising as a bear being in the woods.
is this Ian Brown person someone we should have heard of?
I believe he's the lead singer of a popular beat combo, m'lud.
My final EC map. Barely any change over the past several days. Biden edges closer in Florida but Trumps takes for a 0.5 point win. Nevada edges back to a 6 point Biden win.
Of the battleground Biden flips the rust belt and takes WI MI and PA. Biden also takes AZ GA and NC. Finally he takes both NE 02 and ME 02. Trump holds TX FL OH and IA.
Totals Biden 322 .. Trump 216
Interestingly, that's tighter than your prediction in 2016 which was Clinton 341 .. Trump 197.
Things continue to get worse and worse and worse tonight.
Just as an explosive blast of diarrhoea follows a dodgy curry, so Lockdown 2.0 has been swiftly followed by Panic Buying 2.0. The locusts have been out in force demolishing the shelves in Tesco today. Not quite as bad as March - the tinned food supply hasn't been cleared out yet - but heading that way at a rate of knots. Almost all the fruit and veg except onions and potatoes stripped clean or in very short supply. Ditto the meat, apart from bacon and sausages. Almost no flour. Almost no pasta. Almost no eggs. Bread down by about two-thirds and (inevitably) most of the bog roll also gone. One was reduced to going back and forth through the shop trying to recompute this weeks' dinners based on the surviving resources. I think I managed to get all the right stuff.
It'll be nothing but booze, biscuits and vile vegan ready meals by the end of the week. If the Government's so bloody fixated on Covid to the exclusion of everything else then they would do well to put the population out of its misery and shoot us all. The virus will be eradicated if all the hosts are dead. Result.
Lol! I hope you feel better getting that off your chest @Black_Rook.
Yes, he's 'right': Magna Carta wasn't written in English, and nor is article 61 relevant or still valid, but it's this endless sneering at totems of British and English history that grates with me.
People like him want to attack the keystone events, myths and stories on which this nation is built - which is important to all nations - because he sees it as an obstacle to his politics.
Lol. You're the one bringing politics into this. Stop getting wound up over nothing for goodness sake.
If you read his tweets you'll see he mocks 'patriots' and throws in 'olde Englishe mythe making' into it as well. If you don't think that's political then that's because you already agree with him, and are therefore blind to it.
He's technically ''right, but that's besides the point: generations of Englishmen (and many others around the world) have taken inspiration from a handful of the principles first articulated in it to advance the cause of individual liberty over the last 800 years, and used it as a rallying call for action. It even influenced the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights in 1948.
That's why it's important.
The Magna Carta is incredibly important and is unquestionably one of the foundation stones of individual liberty in this country. However, those who proclaim its importance while simultaneously supporting efforts to emasculate an independent judiciary, which is the only guarantor of individual liberty we have, not only deserve mockery but also deep scorn.
I totally agree with you.
As a centrist liberal who absolutely without qualification supports an independent judiciary can I just ask what precisely are the proposals to prevent them being exactly that? I know there's lots of rhetoric, but is there any substance?
For now it is emasculation rather than attacks on independence - see the Internal Market Bill, for example, and the review of judicial review currently taking place. If you take away judges' ability to hear certain kinds of cases, whether they are independent or not is immaterial. I suspect that full-scale politicisation of the judiciary, as is now happening in the US, won't happen here as not enough lawyers would play ball.
The Internal Market Bill takes away no judicial powers and is as open to litigation and judicial consideration as any other act. The review of JR is exactly that. Despite the rhetoric I have seen no-one suggest that there is a proposal to compel judges to allow government to break their own laws. Should we not wait and see? This is quite separate from the atmosphere of lawless contempt that pervades Priti Patel, Cummings and Boris. That's why we have lawyers and judges. This is not emasculation.
They are only worrying about this now? How long ago did he say "F*** business"?
That FT article is horrible for Johnson. Horrible.
My daughter, who is not political, watched Boris's lockdown "broadcast" and pronounced it a waste of her time. She said he looked clueless and like he was making it up as he went along.
If my daughter has reached that verdict with her non-existant political antennae then Boris is in far worse trouble than the FT article indicates.
He is toast.
Boris Johnson is unquestionably the worst Prime Minister of modern times, probably of all time. He takes abysmal to places I don't think anyone could ever have imagined - even those of us who knew he would be a complete disaster.
Move over Lord North?
I'd like to see a reasoned critique of North. OK the whole colonial war thing, but in those days the generals/admirals on the ground lost wars, not PMs. He lasted 12 years in office and managed the quite tricky feat of being CotE as well as PM for at least some of those, and it seems unjust to compare him to ephemeral pygmies like May and Johnson.
Isn't it the Intolerable Acts rather than the war itself which he is mainly condemned for?
Had he not gone down the road of having the Intolerable Acts then the war might have been avoided.
Perhaps if he'd given them a friendlier name?
One of the unfortunate things about our legislative naming conventions (at least since the various short titles acts) is no scope for truly creative official names, like good old Uniting and Strengthening America by Providing Appropriate Tools Required to Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism Act.
Don't know how many of you share this feeling but despite it's high rating by 538 I find Q's polling suspiciously pro-Dem. I treat these numbers with caution.
AIUI pollsters get a rating for reliability not for accuracy. You could have a 4 point Dem lean but if it was consistent with good data presentation then you can be highly rated.
Don't know how many of you share this feeling but despite it's high rating by 538 I find Q's polling suspiciously pro-Dem. I treat these numbers with caution.
Quinnipiac are known to be D leaning, though as i understand it they are rated more for their methods and track record. Having said that I always move their polls a couple of % towards R. Having said that 3 polls which all leave 10% 'undecided or other' the day before the election means these go in the bin for me. So on face value 'strong' but in reality, not really telling us much at all, Trump at 39% in any national poll is laughable in itself
Yes, he's 'right': Magna Carta wasn't written in English, and nor is article 61 relevant or still valid, but it's this endless sneering at totems of British and English history that grates with me.
People like him want to attack the keystone events, myths and stories on which this nation is built - which is important to all nations - because he sees it as an obstacle to his politics.
Lol. You're the one bringing politics into this. Stop getting wound up over nothing for goodness sake.
If you read his tweets you'll see he mocks 'patriots' and throws in 'olde Englishe mythe making' into it as well. If you don't think that's political then that's because you already agree with him, and are therefore blind to it.
He's technically ''right, but that's besides the point: generations of Englishmen (and many others around the world) have taken inspiration from a handful of the principles first articulated in it to advance the cause of individual liberty over the last 800 years, and used it as a rallying call for action. It even influenced the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights in 1948.
That's why it's important.
The Magna Carta is incredibly important and is unquestionably one of the foundation stones of individual liberty in this country. However, those who proclaim its importance while simultaneously supporting efforts to emasculate an independent judiciary, which is the only guarantor of individual liberty we have, not only deserve mockery but also deep scorn.
I totally agree with you.
As a centrist liberal who absolutely without qualification supports an independent judiciary can I just ask what precisely are the proposals to prevent them being exactly that? I know there's lots of rhetoric, but is there any substance?
At present, I think it's the rhetoric on judges and lawyers and the proposal to review how the courts/legal system works with human rights post Brexit.
Agree. That's a long way from judges being compelled to allow the government to break its own laws or an attack on the independent judiciary.
They are only worrying about this now? How long ago did he say "F*** business"?
That FT article is horrible for Johnson. Horrible.
My daughter, who is not political, watched Boris's lockdown "broadcast" and pronounced it a waste of her time. She said he looked clueless and like he was making it up as he went along.
If my daughter has reached that verdict with her non-existant political antennae then Boris is in far worse trouble than the FT article indicates.
He is toast.
Boris Johnson is unquestionably the worst Prime Minister of modern times, probably of all time. He takes abysmal to places I don't think anyone could ever have imagined - even those of us who knew he would be a complete disaster.
He was bad before; then he got COVID-19 and he’s never really got back to where he was before.
Johnson was the most excruciatingly awful Foreign Secretary. That was way before Covid.
Expectations for Johnson's Prime Ministerial performance were always incredibly low. I am not sure Covid made him noticeably worse.
He has, at times he he totally balls up by misreading / misunderstanding basic questions. It goes beyond his historic record for bluster and bullshit.
Also you see how he runs out of energy. After 30 mins and he goes downhill rapidly.
Agreed. Boris was unsuitable before and worse after Covid-19. It is the same at PMQs. He misses the point and tires easily. Nonetheless, in terms of achievement rather than appearance, David Cameron is still our worst Prime Minister since Lord North. This is partly because Boris has not really done much at all but there is still time.
I can't help thinking you are handing Johnson a Corona shaped get out of jail free card.
4. And where does it matter? Again, the campaigning does not match the polls. If Biden were truly 8-10 points ahead then they'd surely be in Texas, yet Biden chose to go to Minnesota? Easy to conclude that the internal polling is much tighter than the external polling.
Why would they go to Texas? There's marginal down ballot advantages of winning big, you get to be president for four years whether you win with 270 or 413 so make sure you secure 270. They are campaigning in the places with higher election day voting rather than TX, FL and NC which with the early vote the result is mostly baked in.
Because they see the chance to at least break the GOP trifecta at state level in Texas, which means a much less GOP-favouring Congressional map for the next ten years.
Which is also probably why they are in Minnesota to try and make a Democratic trifecta.
Yes, he's 'right': Magna Carta wasn't written in English, and nor is article 61 relevant or still valid, but it's this endless sneering at totems of British and English history that grates with me.
People like him want to attack the keystone events, myths and stories on which this nation is built - which is important to all nations - because he sees it as an obstacle to his politics.
Lol. You're the one bringing politics into this. Stop getting wound up over nothing for goodness sake.
If you read his tweets you'll see he mocks 'patriots' and throws in 'olde Englishe mythe making' into it as well. If you don't think that's political then that's because you already agree with him, and are therefore blind to it.
He's technically ''right, but that's besides the point: generations of Englishmen (and many others around the world) have taken inspiration from a handful of the principles first articulated in it to advance the cause of individual liberty over the last 800 years, and used it as a rallying call for action. It even influenced the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights in 1948.
That's why it's important.
The Magna Carta is incredibly important and is unquestionably one of the foundation stones of individual liberty in this country. However, those who proclaim its importance while simultaneously supporting efforts to emasculate an independent judiciary, which is the only guarantor of individual liberty we have, not only deserve mockery but also deep scorn.
I totally agree with you.
As a centrist liberal who absolutely without qualification supports an independent judiciary can I just ask what precisely are the proposals to prevent them being exactly that? I know there's lots of rhetoric, but is there any substance?
At present, I think it's the rhetoric on judges and lawyers and the proposal to review how the courts/legal system works with human rights post Brexit.
Agree. That's a long way from judges being compelled to allow the government to break its own laws or an attack on the independent judiciary.
Perhaps, but it pays to be extra cautious, expecially when certain quarters get very very angry over specific legal decisions they do not like.
Don't know how many of you share this feeling but despite it's high rating by 538 I find Q's polling suspiciously pro-Dem. I treat these numbers with caution.
Quinnipiac are known to be D leaning, though as i understand it they are rated more for their methods and track record. Having said that I always move their polls a couple of % towards R. Having said that 3 polls which all leave 10% 'undecided or other' the day before the election means these go in the bin for me. So on face value 'strong' but in reality, not really telling us much at all, Trump at 39% in any national poll is laughable in itself
Don't know how many of you share this feeling but despite it's high rating by 538 I find Q's polling suspiciously pro-Dem. I treat these numbers with caution.
Quinnipiac are known to be D leaning, though as i understand it they are rated more for their methods and track record. Having said that I always move their polls a couple of % towards R. Having said that 3 polls which all leave 10% 'undecided or other' the day before the election means these go in the bin for me. So on face value 'strong' but in reality, not really telling us much at all, Trump at 39% in any national poll is laughable in itself
Yes, he's 'right': Magna Carta wasn't written in English, and nor is article 61 relevant or still valid, but it's this endless sneering at totems of British and English history that grates with me.
People like him want to attack the keystone events, myths and stories on which this nation is built - which is important to all nations - because he sees it as an obstacle to his politics.
Lol. You're the one bringing politics into this. Stop getting wound up over nothing for goodness sake.
If you read his tweets you'll see he mocks 'patriots' and throws in 'olde Englishe mythe making' into it as well. If you don't think that's political then that's because you already agree with him, and are therefore blind to it.
He's technically ''right, but that's besides the point: generations of Englishmen (and many others around the world) have taken inspiration from a handful of the principles first articulated in it to advance the cause of individual liberty over the last 800 years, and used it as a rallying call for action. It even influenced the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights in 1948.
That's why it's important.
While the people he is ridiculing are indeed ridiculous, I agree with the point you're making too. He's just taking cheap shots which serve no purpose except self-gratification, and contribute to the drip-drip alienation of not-yet-ridiculous people on the other side of the cultural divide.
One might say very much the same of Charlie Hebdo ?
Unless there are a hell of a lot of Karens and Barbaras, people with common names appear to skew Republican. Emergency legislation being drafted as we speak?
So many Americans have got stupid non-name names that it refreshing to see 20 normal names on the list.
So many of the late 90s / noughties pop stars appear to have gone mental.
I'm still reeling from Robbie Williams from being a pizzagate believer.
What next Gina G retweet Alistair Hames, Baby Spice blames Covid-19 on 5G, and James Dean Bradfield enthusiastically retweeting the likes of Toby Young, James Dellingpole, and Peter Hitchens?
Robbie Williams being a nutter seems about as surprising as a bear being in the woods.
is this Ian Brown person someone we should have heard of?
Things continue to get worse and worse and worse tonight.
Just as an explosive blast of diarrhoea follows a dodgy curry, so Lockdown 2.0 has been swiftly followed by Panic Buying 2.0. The locusts have been out in force demolishing the shelves in Tesco today. Not quite as bad as March - the tinned food supply hasn't been cleared out yet - but heading that way at a rate of knots. Almost all the fruit and veg except onions and potatoes stripped clean or in very short supply. Ditto the meat, apart from bacon and sausages. Almost no flour. Almost no pasta. Almost no eggs. Bread down by about two-thirds and (inevitably) most of the bog roll also gone. One was reduced to going back and forth through the shop trying to recompute this weeks' dinners based on the surviving resources. I think I managed to get all the right stuff.
It'll be nothing but booze, biscuits and vile vegan ready meals by the end of the week. If the Government's so bloody fixated on Covid to the exclusion of everything else then they would do well to put the population out of its misery and shoot us all. The virus will be eradicated if all the hosts are dead. Result.
When the chips are down, no-one's really a vegan, are they?
My final EC map. Barely any change over the past several days. Biden edges closer in Florida but Trumps takes for a 0.5 point win. Nevada edges back to a 6 point Biden win.
Of the battleground Biden flips the rust belt and takes WI MI and PA. Biden also takes AZ GA and NC. Finally he takes both NE 02 and ME 02. Trump holds TX FL OH and IA.
Yes, he's 'right': Magna Carta wasn't written in English, and nor is article 61 relevant or still valid, but it's this endless sneering at totems of British and English history that grates with me.
People like him want to attack the keystone events, myths and stories on which this nation is built - which is important to all nations - because he sees it as an obstacle to his politics.
Lol. You're the one bringing politics into this. Stop getting wound up over nothing for goodness sake.
If you read his tweets you'll see he mocks 'patriots' and throws in 'olde Englishe mythe making' into it as well. If you don't think that's political then that's because you already agree with him, and are therefore blind to it.
He's technically ''right, but that's besides the point: generations of Englishmen (and many others around the world) have taken inspiration from a handful of the principles first articulated in it to advance the cause of individual liberty over the last 800 years, and used it as a rallying call for action. It even influenced the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights in 1948.
That's why it's important.
The Magna Carta is incredibly important and is unquestionably one of the foundation stones of individual liberty in this country. However, those who proclaim its importance while simultaneously supporting efforts to emasculate an independent judiciary, which is the only guarantor of individual liberty we have, not only deserve mockery but also deep scorn.
I totally agree with you.
As a centrist liberal who absolutely without qualification supports an independent judiciary can I just ask what precisely are the proposals to prevent them being exactly that? I know there's lots of rhetoric, but is there any substance?
At present, I think it's the rhetoric on judges and lawyers and the proposal to review how the courts/legal system works with human rights post Brexit.
Agree. That's a long way from judges being compelled to allow the government to break its own laws or an attack on the independent judiciary.
Perhaps, but it pays to be extra cautious, expecially when certain quarters get very very angry over specific legal decisions they do not like.
Always have. Always will. Caution and taking the Daily Mail seriously when it talks about 'enemies of the people' are not the same thing. The freedom the press to talk rubbish about the Master of the Rolls or sentencing when a policeman is killed, and judicial independence are both to be defended.
Just musing aloud but there has been much discussion about the 2016 polling miss reprising again tomorrow. But what if the polling miss is in the other direction ?!?
1. Women outvote men by a further few points 2. 5% of GOP voters sit on their hand for POTUS 3. Dem voters narrow the in person GOP vote edge 4. Significant edge in crossover voting for Biden GOP 12.5 - Dem 5.0 5. Uptick in first time, 18-30 and infrequent voters - lean Biden 6. Independent/ non partisan voters break more heavily for Biden
I just want to comment on *why* we've not seen vaccine efficacy news yet, and why that's probably good news.
These massive trials are blinded. They give the vaccine to 10,000 people and a placebo to 10,000 people. This means 20,000 people have recieved either the vaccine or the placebo.
The participants are then monitored. Once a certain number (probably around 50) have gotten CV19, then the trial is unblinded for those 50. How many got the vaccine and how many the placebo.
If it's 25/25, then the vaccine is a clear failure (although it might still result in far more asymptomatic or low intensity infections, and therefore be very useful). If it's 50/0, then it's a massive success.
None of the trials has yet gotten the required number of CV19 cases. This is partly because the big trials are in the Southern hemisphere and as it warms up and people spend more time outdoors, the numbers of cases in Brazil and South Africa have come down sharply.
But it also suggests that people with the vaccine are not getting sick. The more time it takes to get to 50 cases, the more likely it is that the vaccine is working.
Given what's at stake (and I get the ethics) why not call for volunteers to take a shot of the virus and give them a million quid each for it?
The problem with them, though, is that the virus is primarily one of the upper respiratory tract. An injection of the virus directly into the bloodstream is a very different way to get it, so you may get different results - either worse for the participant as they are overwhelmed by the virus or better as the immune system gets a good look at it early.
The injection will be of vaccine or placebo. The ‘challenge’ dose will be respiratory.
Yes, he's 'right': Magna Carta wasn't written in English, and nor is article 61 relevant or still valid, but it's this endless sneering at totems of British and English history that grates with me.
People like him want to attack the keystone events, myths and stories on which this nation is built - which is important to all nations - because he sees it as an obstacle to his politics.
Lol. You're the one bringing politics into this. Stop getting wound up over nothing for goodness sake.
If you read his tweets you'll see he mocks 'patriots' and throws in 'olde Englishe mythe making' into it as well. If you don't think that's political then that's because you already agree with him, and are therefore blind to it.
He's technically ''right, but that's besides the point: generations of Englishmen (and many others around the world) have taken inspiration from a handful of the principles first articulated in it to advance the cause of individual liberty over the last 800 years, and used it as a rallying call for action. It even influenced the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights in 1948.
That's why it's important.
The Magna Carta is incredibly important and is unquestionably one of the foundation stones of individual liberty in this country. However, those who proclaim its importance while simultaneously supporting efforts to emasculate an independent judiciary, which is the only guarantor of individual liberty we have, not only deserve mockery but also deep scorn.
I totally agree with you.
As a centrist liberal who absolutely without qualification supports an independent judiciary can I just ask what precisely are the proposals to prevent them being exactly that? I know there's lots of rhetoric, but is there any substance?
For now it is emasculation rather than attacks on independence - see the Internal Market Bill, for example, and the review of judicial review currently taking place. If you take away judges' ability to hear certain kinds of cases, whether they are independent or not is immaterial. I suspect that full-scale politicisation of the judiciary, as is now happening in the US, won't happen here as not enough lawyers would play ball.
The Internal Market Bill takes away no judicial powers and is as open to litigation and judicial consideration as any other act. The review of JR is exactly that. Despite the rhetoric I have seen no-one suggest that there is a proposal to compel judges to allow government to break their own laws. Should we not wait and see? This is quite separate from the atmosphere of lawless contempt that pervades Priti Patel, Cummings and Boris. That's why we have lawyers and judges. This is not emasculation.
I think two things at the same time: I don't trust Cummings or Boris one iota and at the same time I do think the HRA should be reformed and use of endless judicial reviews should be investigated.
It shouldn't be that controversial. Cameron put it in his manifesto.
This line from the conductor of the last indy poll must have struck home.
'“In focus groups [Boris Johnson] is not just criticized in the way David Cameron and Theresa May were,” James Johnson adds, “but loathed.”'
I wonder whom Mr Ross favours as the next Imperial Leader?
Edit: And when he joins the SNP, the way things are going. But we have been here before. Ms D (not then a Dame) and Mr J.
Why not himself, in the fullness of time? It's only Scottish nationalists who want the world, and their own career, to stop at Gretna Green.
Point taken. Not everyone has a self-denying ordinance at Lamberton Toll. But would Ms Davidson not step in first? She's, or will soon be, a pukka Lady and having a peeress as PM would be a logical extension of all the last few months.
Things continue to get worse and worse and worse tonight.
Just as an explosive blast of diarrhoea follows a dodgy curry, so Lockdown 2.0 has been swiftly followed by Panic Buying 2.0. The locusts have been out in force demolishing the shelves in Tesco today. Not quite as bad as March - the tinned food supply hasn't been cleared out yet - but heading that way at a rate of knots. Almost all the fruit and veg except onions and potatoes stripped clean or in very short supply. Ditto the meat, apart from bacon and sausages. Almost no flour. Almost no pasta. Almost no eggs. Bread down by about two-thirds and (inevitably) most of the bog roll also gone. One was reduced to going back and forth through the shop trying to recompute this weeks' dinners based on the surviving resources. I think I managed to get all the right stuff.
It'll be nothing but booze, biscuits and vile vegan ready meals by the end of the week. If the Government's so bloody fixated on Covid to the exclusion of everything else then they would do well to put the population out of its misery and shoot us all. The virus will be eradicated if all the hosts are dead. Result.
Lol! I hope you feel better getting that off your chest @Black_Rook.
All calm here in Dorset
That won't last.
Chin up. I'll buy you a curry when this is all over!
We will look back upon this period and laugh one day. It's just not funny now.
I just want to comment on *why* we've not seen vaccine efficacy news yet, and why that's probably good news.
These massive trials are blinded. They give the vaccine to 10,000 people and a placebo to 10,000 people. This means 20,000 people have recieved either the vaccine or the placebo.
The participants are then monitored. Once a certain number (probably around 50) have gotten CV19, then the trial is unblinded for those 50. How many got the vaccine and how many the placebo.
If it's 25/25, then the vaccine is a clear failure (although it might still result in far more asymptomatic or low intensity infections, and therefore be very useful). If it's 50/0, then it's a massive success.
None of the trials has yet gotten the required number of CV19 cases. This is partly because the big trials are in the Southern hemisphere and as it warms up and people spend more time outdoors, the numbers of cases in Brazil and South Africa have come down sharply.
But it also suggests that people with the vaccine are not getting sick. The more time it takes to get to 50 cases, the more likely it is that the vaccine is working.
Given what's at stake (and I get the ethics) why not call for volunteers to take a shot of the virus and give them a million quid each for it?
The problem with them, though, is that the virus is primarily one of the upper respiratory tract. An injection of the virus directly into the bloodstream is a very different way to get it, so you may get different results - either worse for the participant as they are overwhelmed by the virus or better as the immune system gets a good look at it early.
Surely, you could infect them with exposure to aerosolized virus rather than injection? But given that initial viral dose seems to be quite important in disease progression, you'd have to have a fairly large study to have meaningful statistics for the effectiveness of the vaccine against a range of different initial viral doses.
I just want to comment on *why* we've not seen vaccine efficacy news yet, and why that's probably good news.
These massive trials are blinded. They give the vaccine to 10,000 people and a placebo to 10,000 people. This means 20,000 people have recieved either the vaccine or the placebo.
The participants are then monitored. Once a certain number (probably around 50) have gotten CV19, then the trial is unblinded for those 50. How many got the vaccine and how many the placebo.
If it's 25/25, then the vaccine is a clear failure (although it might still result in far more asymptomatic or low intensity infections, and therefore be very useful). If it's 50/0, then it's a massive success.
None of the trials has yet gotten the required number of CV19 cases. This is partly because the big trials are in the Southern hemisphere and as it warms up and people spend more time outdoors, the numbers of cases in Brazil and South Africa have come down sharply.
But it also suggests that people with the vaccine are not getting sick. The more time it takes to get to 50 cases, the more likely it is that the vaccine is working.
Given what's at stake (and I get the ethics) why not call for volunteers to take a shot of the virus and give them a million quid each for it?
The problem with them, though, is that the virus is primarily one of the upper respiratory tract. An injection of the virus directly into the bloodstream is a very different way to get it, so you may get different results - either worse for the participant as they are overwhelmed by the virus or better as the immune system gets a good look at it early.
Surely, you could infect them with exposure to aerosolized virus rather than injection? But given that initial viral dose seems to be quite important in disease progression, you'd have to have a fairly large study to have meaningful statistics for the effectiveness of the vaccine against a range of different initial viral doses.
As I understood it, the initial challenge trial would start with unvaccinated volunteers (starting with very low viral dose), in order to establish a minimum infectious amount.
OGH asked what other PBers are doing. As someone who reads these columns a lot, and rarely posts (as I am better at betting than writing) I thought I would share my betting “book” on this election. I am pretty heavily invested on the Betfair markets (having done over 2% of the total volumes). My markets are below (with the share of my money risked, may not add to 100% due to rounding). Biden for President 18% Biden Florida 6% Democrats Winning Party 3% Biden Popular Vote 13% Next President not to lose popular vote 13% Biden Maine 2% Biden Ohio 1% Biden Arizona 1% Biden N. Carolina 1% Senate NOM 1% Biden New Hampshire 1% Georgia negligible (most closed out) House Dem Majority 1% Minnesota Biden 2% Wisconsin Biden negligible (most closed out) Nevada Biden negligible (most closed out) Biden Pennsylvania 2% Biden Michigan 1% Texas Biden negligible (most closed out) Biden 100.5 handicap 2% Biden 48.5% handicap 1% Biden New Mexico 4% Trump lowish electoral votes 16% Biden highish electoral votes 11% Trump Missouri 1% Trump Montana 1% Biden Oregon 1% Biden New Jersey 1%
Comments
Current data would be of interest.
In truth Roger is generally no worse a tipster than anybody else in matters not relating to the Oscars, where he is a star as you rightly point out.
The 'Rogerdamus' theme is one of the best long-running jokes on PB. Happily he takes it very well and joins in the fun.
The pineapple pizzas jokes are likewise all good fun. Some matters however are less funny....
Like the time JackW cheated me out of the Annual Tipster of the Year award.
He will get somewhere around his approval figure. As is the way of things.
Deleted.
Which I find delicious (and positive - Americans of all races should move together).
Just as an explosive blast of diarrhoea follows a dodgy curry, so Lockdown 2.0 has been swiftly followed by Panic Buying 2.0. The locusts have been out in force demolishing the shelves in Tesco today. Not quite as bad as March - the tinned food supply hasn't been cleared out yet - but heading that way at a rate of knots. Almost all the fruit and veg except onions and potatoes stripped clean or in very short supply. Ditto the meat, apart from bacon and sausages. Almost no flour. Almost no pasta. Almost no eggs. Bread down by about two-thirds and (inevitably) most of the bog roll also gone. One was reduced to going back and forth through the shop trying to recompute this weeks' dinners based on the surviving resources. I think I managed to get all the right stuff.
It'll be nothing but booze, biscuits and vile vegan ready meals by the end of the week. If the Government's so bloody fixated on Covid to the exclusion of everything else then they would do well to put the population out of its misery and shoot us all. The virus will be eradicated if all the hosts are dead. Result.
Unless there are a hell of a lot of Karens and Barbaras, people with common names appear to skew Republican. Emergency legislation being drafted as we speak?
All calm here in Dorset
How little things change.
PV by over 10m. Trump below 200 in the EC.
1. Women outvote men by a further few points
2. 5% of GOP voters sit on their hand for POTUS
3. Dem voters narrow the in person GOP vote edge
4. Significant edge in crossover voting for Biden GOP 12.5 - Dem 5.0
5. Uptick in first time, 18-30 and infrequent voters - lean Biden
6. Independent/ non partisan voters break more heavily for Biden
You get the idea.
Been a bit busy to study the tea leaves tonight, with it all kicking off at work. Nonetheless this is my final forecast:
AZ, IA, OH, NC, FL could all be the wrong colour, as all very close to call.
The ‘challenge’ dose will be respiratory.
It shouldn't be that controversial. Cameron put it in his manifesto.
Runs until Friday.
We will look back upon this period and laugh one day. It's just not funny now.
NEW THREAD
My final prediction:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/78rey
My markets are below (with the share of my money risked, may not add to 100% due to rounding).
Biden for President 18%
Biden Florida 6%
Democrats Winning Party 3%
Biden Popular Vote 13%
Next President not to lose popular vote 13%
Biden Maine 2%
Biden Ohio 1%
Biden Arizona 1%
Biden N. Carolina 1%
Senate NOM 1%
Biden New Hampshire 1%
Georgia negligible (most closed out)
House Dem Majority 1%
Minnesota Biden 2%
Wisconsin Biden negligible (most closed out)
Nevada Biden negligible (most closed out)
Biden Pennsylvania 2%
Biden Michigan 1%
Texas Biden negligible (most closed out)
Biden 100.5 handicap 2%
Biden 48.5% handicap 1%
Biden New Mexico 4%
Trump lowish electoral votes 16%
Biden highish electoral votes 11%
Trump Missouri 1%
Trump Montana 1%
Biden Oregon 1%
Biden New Jersey 1%