PB HISTORIANS: has any other major party in Britain suspended its immediately previous leader? I can’t think of an example. Any abroad in other democracies?
UKIP?
A thread on their leadership woes would be worth a good laugh, even though they are not major anymore.
I was once quoted on Oddschecker in the "Next UKIP leader" market
You were in the running ?
No, it was Shadsy mucking about. I was in the running as a candidate in 2015 vs Emily Thornberry in Islington South
EDIT But I decided not to bother
Gosh, I did not know that. The real thing then.
I will cease with the "West Ham" harassment forthwith.
Ha no I'm not from Islington, I support The Arsenal because my Grandad, who was from Islington, did.
Ah, nice. My dad took me week in week out for years when I was a small boy to Hillsborough to watch Sheffield Wednesday - the Owls - but all the time I secretly supported Man U. Not now though. These days I vastly prefer your 2 teams, the Arse and the Hammers, to Man U.
Most of my friends are West Ham fans, and we used to go over there a lot in the late 80s/early 90s to jump around and sing songs in the South Bank . My Dad was a coach in the Academy for years too and used to get us free tickets, so I probably do prefer them to most other teams, although I like all London/Essex teams really, except Tottenham
Lady G & others, my father was fortunate enough to go into Lascaux before it was closed in 1963. He spoke of it as one of the greatest experiences of his life. Decades later he would fall silent as he tried to describe it.
I'm sure it can't begin to compare, but the Hal Saflieni hypogeum in Malta is somewhere that feels unbelievably otherworldly.
Well sure. But the exchange was me responding to the charge that I am an antisemite for holding the view that Starmer expelling Corbyn risks internal party strife which could outweigh the political benefit. Found that a bit harsh and not really fair.
Yeah, a lot of stuff flying around today.
On your substantial point, from a purely party-political standpoint, I think suspending him was the right decision. Labour has to shake off the stink of anti-Semistism fast, and quietly eliminating it from the party won't be sufficient to do that.
That said, Corbyn plainly has a blind spot on the issue (Angela Rayner's words) rather than holding anti-Semitic views himself, but it will long be claimed that this proves otherwise. Plus I detest the way that the left has co-opted the ultra-right term "zero tolerance".
I've never believed that the ends justify the means, but successful politicians have to. Unjust but necessary may be the verdict?
Hello again,
I have always voted Labour but I joined the party because of Corbyn. Not the man - I like my potential PMs a little brighter and more contemporary - but the political direction his election indicated. At last (I thought) goodbye to timid tinkerism and cringing under the gaze of the likes of Murdoch, and a big and long overdue Hello to a serious intention - at least an intention - of changing this country so that the single biggest determinant of life prospects is no longer parental bank balance. So, ok, it's over. Fine. And probably a great decision here from Starmer since it shows he's ruthless and lazer focused on winning the next election. But I'm not punching the air about it. I just don't feel that way. I feel pretty muted.
Hello, I could have written every word of that myself!
That is, aside from the joining Labour because of him bit (I joined last December), but if I'd been in the party in 2015, I'm pretty sure I'd have voted for him. I always had concerns about some of his followers - saw some very unpleasant behaviour from Socialist Workers in my university days - but the party desperately needed to find its soul. I know there's the fear that they will lose their soul again now he's gone, but I don't see much grounds for that fear.
Just saw a map of "The most tastiest dished in Europe"
Aside from the redundant "most" AND fact that they still consider the UK as part of Europe, the most shocking thing yours truly has learned, is that the Welsh eat Faggots!
Is Wales a focus for LBGT tourism? AND if so, is THIS the reason?
Well sure. But the exchange was me responding to the charge that I am an antisemite for holding the view that Starmer expelling Corbyn risks internal party strife which could outweigh the political benefit. Found that a bit harsh and not really fair.
Yeah, a lot of stuff flying around today.
On your substantial point, from a purely party-political standpoint, I think suspending him was the right decision. Labour has to shake off the stink of anti-Semistism fast, and quietly eliminating it from the party won't be sufficient to do that.
That said, Corbyn plainly has a blind spot on the issue (Angela Rayner's words) rather than holding anti-Semitic views himself, but it will long be claimed that this proves otherwise. Plus I detest the way that the left has co-opted the ultra-right term "zero tolerance".
I've never believed that the ends justify the means, but successful politicians have to. Unjust but necessary may be the verdict?
Hello again,
I have always voted Labour but I joined the party because of Corbyn. Not the man - I like my potential PMs a little brighter and more contemporary - but the political direction his election indicated. At last (I thought) goodbye to timid tinkerism and cringing under the gaze of the likes of Murdoch, and a big and long overdue Hello to a serious intention - at least an intention - of changing this country so that the single biggest determinant of life prospects is no longer parental bank balance. So, ok, it's over. Fine. And probably a great decision here from Starmer since it shows he's ruthless and lazer focused on winning the next election. But I'm not punching the air about it. I just don't feel that way. I feel pretty muted.
Just remember who is to blame. Corbyn had a great chance to advance left-wing politics and he fumbled it.
The Left needs better leaders and ideas people to avoid squandering the next chance. Corbyn has to be cleared out to let that happen.
"... a massive threat from the government's apparent determination to tear apart the USP of British food in order to strike trade deals in desperation"
I just cannot see Texas happening. Would be nice to be wrong.
Well that map is bollocks for a start. Trump has lost Pennsylvania.
Such a lost cause Trump is having three rallies there Saturday.
Honestly, why is he bothering?
He may or not be a lost cause there, but I do not understand how the number of rallies someone has in a place is a sign one way or another. People have praised Obama's campaign information, but campaigns don't always have good info, or use that info well, as Hilary demonstrated, so he could be 20 pts ahead or 20pts behind there, but if his info was crap he might still go there. Likewise, anywhere Biden goes doesn't necessarily say anything about the strength of his campaign. It's possible, but cannot be certain.
Totally agree, the ONLY reason Trumps there is he pretty much knows if he doesnt win there hes toast, he's not winning WI or MI, so its Penn or bust, so of course hes going to spend time there, its a must win, The fact hes going there for 1, 3 or 30 super spreader rallies doesn't necessary mean he's actually competitive there , he simply knows if he loses PA hes done. Which is why he's talking all this fraud nonsense and doing what he can to try to negate postal votes that are counted after Tues.
I've just come back from my uncle's funeral in Inverness, a sad event made grimmer by Covid and other elements (however that's not it). Turns out that through my Lewis gran I'm distantly related to The Donald, a common great x grandfather at some point in the 19th century, one of the MacLeods of Portvoller apparently.
I have a single orange bristle in my beard, I'm hoping that's the only instance of common genetic inheritance.
Sorry to hear your news TUD. Family losses and funerals are tough at the best of times, which this ain’t.
As for the rest, I shouldn’t be perturbed. The Queen’s related to Dubya and she lives it down. We judge you on your posts not on being a distant cousin of an ape, which let’s face it, we all are.
This will still not stop me endlessly mocking you when the SNP lose an election, although the way things are going I may have to wait for about 50 years.
"As turnout in North Carolina is now above 81% of the total turnout in the 2016 election,1 it’s become clear that early voting has become a major part of the story. Among those who have already voted, Biden has a sizeable lead over Trump, 62% to 36%. Among those who had not voted when the field was conducted, Trump leads 64% to 30%. A clear story of this election is that Biden’s voters are voting and have voted and that the Trump campaign is counting on election day turnout to boost its numbers."
Just how big does turnout have to be for Trump to claw back that 26% lead Biden appears to have in the votes already cast?
Looking at the demographics, I would tend to bet on Trump in NC based on that poll. Interestingly there is no gender split at all, which contradicts what most pollsters are saying.
It is a cracking poll for Trump. It is making me consider taking my NC bet profit and walking away. However it has turnout simply too low. There is not going to be less people voting in 2020 than 2016 in NC.
Considering the fieldwork was 20th to 26th October, if we take 24th October stats as the point data for turnout (Mail voters could be waiting for their ballot to be counted / In person would obviously have voted on the day of their being asked ) then we get the following
I've just come back from my uncle's funeral in Inverness, a sad event made grimmer by Covid and other elements (however that's not it). Turns out that through my Lewis gran I'm distantly related to The Donald, a common great x grandfather at some point in the 19th century, one of the MacLeods of Portvoller apparently.
I have a single orange bristle in my beard, I'm hoping that's the only instance of common genetic inheritance.
Sorry that your uncle is no longer with us.
As for you NOW is your golden opportunity to get in on the action, and write a "tell-all" book from within America's most notorious family! "Clan Trumpsky - Scotland's Not-So-Secret Shame"
That is a thin blue line flag, a flag supporting the police, It isn't an "anti-BLM" flag, unless you condone people attacking the police.
UK police officers can wear similar badges, are you calling them fascist?
UK police officers should not wear thin blue line Union flags on their uniform. It is a desecration of the national flag and a breach of the uniform code. Sadly most Chief Constables are too weak to stamp out this practice.
Just saw a map of "The most tastiest dished in Europe"
Aside from the redundant "most" AND fact that they still consider the UK as part of Europe, the most shocking thing yours truly has learned, is that the Welsh eat Faggots!
Is Wales a focus for LBGT tourism? AND if so, is THIS the reason?
True story. A colleague of mine at another university used the word 'faggot' in the Old English context of a bundle of sticks. Or so he claimed.
He regretted it, when a faced a lengthy disciplinary case.
But in Wales, faggot does indeed usually refer to meatballs, made from liver & pork off-cuts. They were a take-away dish of the poor, usually sold at open-air markets, etc.
But, faggots gradually came to be supplanted by Big Macs and burgers and kebabs.
They are still made by my local butcher on Fridays. And bought by the elderly.
Lady G & others, my father was fortunate enough to go into Lascaux before it was closed in 1963. He spoke of it as one of the greatest experiences of his life. Decades later he would fall silent as he tried to describe it.
I'm sure it can't begin to compare, but the Hal Saflieni hypogeum in Malta is somewhere that feels unbelievably otherworldly.
Gobekli Tepe is the most mind blowing experience of all. Still completely mysterious. I saw it when it was first unearthed. Changed my life.
Lady G & others, my father was fortunate enough to go into Lascaux before it was closed in 1963. He spoke of it as one of the greatest experiences of his life. Decades later he would fall silent as he tried to describe it.
I'm sure it can't begin to compare, but the Hal Saflieni hypogeum in Malta is somewhere that feels unbelievably otherworldly.
Gobekli Tepe is the most mind blowing experience of all. Still completely mysterious. I saw it when it was first unearthed. Changed my life.
The transformation of human society, and what it has led to, from such places is utterly astonishing. I'm not a religious man, but I almost get goosebumps just thinking about it, I would love to see it in the flesh.
Lady G & others, my father was fortunate enough to go into Lascaux before it was closed in 1963. He spoke of it as one of the greatest experiences of his life. Decades later he would fall silent as he tried to describe it.
I'm sure it can't begin to compare, but the Hal Saflieni hypogeum in Malta is somewhere that feels unbelievably otherworldly.
Gobekli Tepe is the most mind blowing experience of all. Still completely mysterious. I saw it when it was first unearthed. Changed my life.
A 40:30 split is not good for the Labour party, actually. (I have rounded the numbers, as the unreported error bars are likely substantial).
I mean, I know the Labour Party is now in the running for the cherished prize of the LadyG vote, but those numbers betoken the cost may be some substantial blood-letting.
My suspicion is, after all the blood, LadyG might decide after all to stick with the Tories.
I just cannot see Texas happening. Would be nice to be wrong.
North Dakota and Montana go Dem but Hawaii is to close to call??????
It is the 1916 election. It is how the US looked long, long ago.
With the segregated Democratic South and the Republican north-east. Because nothing lasts forever.
Ah ha! So not a joke, just 104 years ago.
Key state THAT election was California, which Woodrow Wilson won by margin of +3,420 votes over Republican nominee Charles Evans Hughes, out of 999,250 cast that year in the Golden State.
IF Wilson had lost CA which then had 13 EV, Hughes would have been elected President.
One reason why Hughes lost CA was because (according to some historians) he dissed Governor Hiram Johnson, a Republican progressive who in 1912 defected from the GOP to be Theodore Roosevelt's VP running mate on the Bull Moose ticket.
Whether or not Hughes was guilty of personal discourtesy is debatable - Hiram Johnson was VERY thin skinned and prima donna to boot) but it's clear that his followers did NOT go all out for Hughes.
I would support suspending him because he's been a thoroughly malign influence for years. Just a pity this looks confected.
Confected? How so?
The Leader of the party accepted the report unequivocally, and one of his MPs equivocated on it publicly, and due to his former position most damagingly. On an issue with such prominence it'd be like rebelling on a hypothetical 4 line whip.
It's not even as though Starmer handed Corbyn a rope to hang himself, Corbyn just blundered his way in.
I've just come back from my uncle's funeral in Inverness, a sad event made grimmer by Covid and other elements (however that's not it). Turns out that through my Lewis gran I'm distantly related to The Donald, a common great x grandfather at some point in the 19th century, one of the MacLeods of Portvoller apparently.
I have a single orange bristle in my beard, I'm hoping that's the only instance of common genetic inheritance.
Sorry to hear that mate. My own Uncle has been in my thoughts today - he looked / sounded like Bobby Ball (and did we ever wind him up about it).
I would support suspending him because he's been a thoroughly malign influence for years. Just a pity this looks confected.
Labour List said that apparently he was given advance warning that Starmer's speech was going to warn Labour people not to suggest it was exaggerated, or a factional plot (and therefore to make sure his statement didn't take that line). He then put out the statement saying exactly those things, and was given a chance to change it, which of course he wouldn't do.
He's nothing if not stubborn, and you could say it's a clean trap that they've set up for him, but it's one he knowingly jumped into.
Just saw a map of "The most tastiest dished in Europe"
Aside from the redundant "most" AND fact that they still consider the UK as part of Europe, the most shocking thing yours truly has learned, is that the Welsh eat Faggots!
Is Wales a focus for LBGT tourism? AND if so, is THIS the reason?
True story. A colleague of mine at another university used the word 'faggot' in the Old English context of a bundle of sticks. Or so he claimed.
He regretted it, when a faced a lengthy disciplinary case.
But in Wales, faggot does indeed usually refer to meatballs, made from liver & pork off-cuts. They were a take-away dish of the poor, usually sold at open-air markets, etc.
But, faggots gradually came to be supplanted by Big Macs and burgers and kebabs.
They are still made by my local butcher on Fridays. And bought by the elderly.
I'm so old I can remember them being sold as a tv dinner type meal in the freezer cabinet in supermarkets (and not in Wales).
All this totally misses the issues with the BBC and especially looking to the future. Also, how can your employer ban you from attending something like that, I smell lawyers rubbing hands.
Campaign in the rust belt - going to lose them Campaogn outside the rust belt - loss of focus means Biden going to lose the rust belt.
It's a perfect system
If I was advising them, I’d finish the campaign in Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, and finally Pennsylvania. Secure the win. Maybe Florida, but that’s only if time permits.
Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida - they’re for a week+ prior and yes, aim to win them. But when the line is approaching, you secure the win. If Biden wins MN, MI, WI, and PA, he wins the White House. Don’t do a Hilary.
Critical Race Theory etc means that only prejudice against the down trodden counts as bad. So hating on private educated people, for example is OK. And minorities can't be racist, since that would be... "punching sideways"???
The problem is that Jews, as a group, in the West, are not down trodden. In fact, many are wealthy and powerful.... so they shouldn't be classed as "down".
But racism against Jews is still bad.
So now "punching up" is problem....{fizzzzzzz} LOGIC ERROR! OUT OF CHEESE! REDO FROM START!
It is used as cover in a lot of comedy...the comment, i mean joke, about Rishi sunak not being a proper brown person, that ok, cos its punching up innit.
This is going to be one of those split party things that is good for them rather than being something "voters dont like", I can tell.. a bit like running over a cyclist when performing a U-Turn in a SUV is now the cyclists fault
Will Sir Keir be brave enough to use "U-Turn" in future PMQs do we think?
If Jezza is reinstated it will be great material for Boris
"At least this time his U-Turn has made a cyclist happy instead of putting him in hospital!"
Just saw a map of "The most tastiest dished in Europe"
Aside from the redundant "most" AND fact that they still consider the UK as part of Europe, the most shocking thing yours truly has learned, is that the Welsh eat Faggots!
Is Wales a focus for LBGT tourism? AND if so, is THIS the reason?
True story. A colleague of mine at another university used the word 'faggot' in the Old English context of a bundle of sticks. Or so he claimed.
He regretted it, when a faced a lengthy disciplinary case.
But in Wales, faggot does indeed usually refer to meatballs, made from liver & pork off-cuts. They were a take-away dish of the poor, usually sold at open-air markets, etc.
But, faggots gradually came to be supplanted by Big Macs and burgers and kebabs.
They are still made by my local butcher on Fridays. And bought by the elderly.
I'm so old I can remember them being sold as a tv dinner type meal in the freezer cabinet in supermarkets (and not in Wales).
I just cannot see Texas happening. Would be nice to be wrong.
North Dakota and Montana go Dem but Hawaii is to close to call??????
It is the 1916 election. It is how the US looked long, long ago.
With the segregated Democratic South and the Republican north-east. Because nothing lasts forever.
Ah ha! So not a joke, just 104 years ago.
Key state THAT election was California, which Woodrow Wilson won by margin of +3,420 votes over Republican nominee Charles Evans Hughes, out of 999,250 cast that year in the Golden State.
IF Wilson had lost CA which then had 13 EV, Hughes would have been elected President.
One reason why Hughes lost CA was because (according to some historians) he dissed Governor Hiram Johnson, a Republican progressive who in 1912 defected from the GOP to be Theodore Roosevelt's VP running mate on the Bull Moose ticket.
Whether or not Hughes was guilty of personal discourtesy is debatable - Hiram Johnson was VERY thin skinned and prima donna to boot) but it's clear that his followers did NOT go all out for Hughes.
And the rest, they say, is history.
Fun fact:
Wilson was convinced he would lose. And he was worried that with a little number called World War One raging, a four month ‘lame duck’ period would be suboptimal.
So he devised a cunning plan:
If he lost, the day after the election, he would make Hughes Secretary of State.
The Vice President would then resign.
After that, Wilson would resign himself
And as a result, under the laws of the time Hughes would immediately become Acting President and could ensure no loss of leadership in the aftermath of the Somme as Britain and Germany effectively began their final direct war of attrition.
As he just clung on, it wasn’t needed. And since 1936 the lame duck period has been cut from four months to two.
But it’s interesting to reflect (a) that could not now happen and (b) that would have made Wilson the first President to resign from office.
That is a thin blue line flag, a flag supporting the police, It isn't an "anti-BLM" flag, unless you condone people attacking the police.
UK police officers can wear similar badges, are you calling them fascist?
UK police officers should not wear thin blue line Union flags on their uniform. It is a desecration of the national flag and a breach of the uniform code. Sadly most Chief Constables are too weak to stamp out this practice.
Its original American iteration is a clear violation of the United States Flag Code (4 USC ch.1). Funny how the right is always about respect for the flag until it suits them not to do so.
All this totally misses the issues with the BBC and especially looking to the future. Also, how can your employer ban you from attending something like that, I smell lawyers rubbing hands.
It sounds like the kind of thing done as a tactic to discredit a policy you don't agree with by implementing it in an absurd way.
PB HISTORIANS: has any other major party in Britain suspended its immediately previous leader? I can’t think of an example. Any abroad in other democracies?
UKIP?
A thread on their leadership woes would be worth a good laugh, even though they are not major anymore.
I was once quoted on Oddschecker in the "Next UKIP leader" market
You were in the running ?
No, it was Shadsy mucking about. I was in the running as a candidate in 2015 vs Emily Thornberry in Islington South
EDIT But I decided not to bother
Gosh, I did not know that. The real thing then.
I will cease with the "West Ham" harassment forthwith.
Ha no I'm not from Islington, I support The Arsenal because my Grandad, who was from Islington, did.
Ah, nice. My dad took me week in week out for years when I was a small boy to Hillsborough to watch Sheffield Wednesday - the Owls - but all the time I secretly supported Man U. Not now though. These days I vastly prefer your 2 teams, the Arse and the Hammers, to Man U.
Most of my friends are West Ham fans, and we used to go over there a lot in the late 80s/early 90s to jump around and sing songs in the South Bank . My Dad was a coach in the Academy for years too and used to get us free tickets, so I probably do prefer them to most other teams, although I like all London/Essex teams really, except Tottenham
Ha! So you and West Ham are no strangers. My profiling was quite good after all. What a relief. I pride myself on it.
Campaign in the rust belt - going to lose them Campaogn outside the rust belt - loss of focus means Biden going to lose the rust belt.
It's a perfect system
If I was advising them, I’d finish the campaign in Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, and finally Pennsylvania. Secure the win. Maybe Florida, but that’s only if time permits.
Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida - they’re for a week+ prior and yes, aim to win them. But when the line is approaching, you secure the win. If Biden wins MN, MI, WI, and PA, he wins the White House. Don’t do a Hilary.
All this totally misses the issues with the BBC and especially looking to the future. Also, how can your employer ban you from attending something like that, I smell lawyers rubbing hands.
It sounds like the kind of thing done as a tactic to discredit a policy you don't agree with by implementing it in an absurd way.
Surely nothing as cynical as that ;-)
Funny how its always the Daily Mails fault...
One source told i the change is “obviously to please the Daily Mail and to make the BBC less of a target by rowing back”.
I've just come back from my uncle's funeral in Inverness, a sad event made grimmer by Covid and other elements (however that's not it). Turns out that through my Lewis gran I'm distantly related to The Donald, a common great x grandfather at some point in the 19th century, one of the MacLeods of Portvoller apparently.
I have a single orange bristle in my beard, I'm hoping that's the only instance of common genetic inheritance.
If you pluck out the orange bristle then forgiveness shall be granted.
"Tune in as we get out the vote" is the language of a campaign talking to itself.
At this stage, campaigns have two critical tasks: 1. persuading people who are virtually certain to vote, to vote their way; and 2. urging supporters who MAY not vote to do so.
Note that Trumpsky is solely focused on the latter, while Biden is NOT neglecting the former, unlike Hillary 4 years ago.
I've just come back from my uncle's funeral in Inverness, a sad event made grimmer by Covid and other elements (however that's not it). Turns out that through my Lewis gran I'm distantly related to The Donald, a common great x grandfather at some point in the 19th century, one of the MacLeods of Portvoller apparently.
I have a single orange bristle in my beard, I'm hoping that's the only instance of common genetic inheritance.
Sorry that your uncle is no longer with us.
As for you NOW is your golden opportunity to get in on the action, and write a "tell-all" book from within America's most notorious family! "Clan Trumpsky - Scotland's Not-So-Secret Shame"
Thanks for condolences SeaShanty, ydoethur and others.
Strangely Trump came up independently of the family revelation (that was at the funeral meats). My uncle was a Liberal Unionist who loathed Brexit and Trump, and his son, my cousin, in his tribute brought up Trump as the polar opposite of of the person that was my uncle. Weird how politics crops up.
The Isle Lewis has it's own sort of rascals who are not really brashly Trumpian, more Odysseus the Trickster types. This is a good example, an interesting story even if you're not a Lewisman I think.
So with Trump’s efforts, what level of total turnout do we expect? 140%?
One day of early voting left.
Most States close on Saturday
But the box stuffing can happen any time, surely?
I don't think actual ballot box stuffing has been an electoral shenanigan here in America in many a long year. Here in NYS, for instance, when we put the ballot into the "box" we're actually putting it through a scanner which records our votes. The physical ballot paper is for audit if necessary. Of course, hacking the machines can happen at any time!
This is going to be one of those split party things that is good for them rather than being something "voters dont like", I can tell.. a bit like running over a cyclist when performing a U-Turn in a SUV is now the cyclists fault
Will Sir Keir be brave enough to use "U-Turn" in future PMQs do we think?
If Jezza is reinstated it will be great material for Boris
"At least this time his U-Turn has made a cyclist happy instead of putting him in hospital!"
You're spinning so hard trying to turn this into a MINUS for Starmer that you're gonna make yourself dizzy and pass out, or throw up.
I've just come back from my uncle's funeral in Inverness, a sad event made grimmer by Covid and other elements (however that's not it). Turns out that through my Lewis gran I'm distantly related to The Donald, a common great x grandfather at some point in the 19th century, one of the MacLeods of Portvoller apparently.
I have a single orange bristle in my beard, I'm hoping that's the only instance of common genetic inheritance.
Oh god. What a shocker. But stay calm and try not to worry. If you start exhibiting I'll tell you straightaway and we can get you into the best place.
Not a chance. When the exact gravity of planets in the star wars universe which never appear in the movies are exhaustively catelogued but the yoda species is not, some mysteries are clearly meant to be.
A pulverising of polls this evening as might be expected moving into the final five days of the 2020 American Presidential, Senate, Congressional and Dog-Catcher election campaigns.
Starting with the national polls and Rasmussen charitably gives Biden a sniff tonight with a 48-47 lead. Elsewhere, IBD/TIPP is unchanged at 50-45 while USA Today has a Suffolk poll which has Biden 7.5% ahead (51.8-44.3)
Clinton won Minnesota by just 1.5 points last time and Trump fans have always seen this as one of the potential "flips". A 5-point lead represents a small 1.75% swing from 2016 which would be enough across the board but not by much.
Quinnipiac has Biden up seven in Pennsylvania while North Carolina remains TCTC with one poll showing a 48-48 tie and a Siena poll has a 3-point lead for Biden. (48-45).
In Georgia, a Public Policy Polling poll (!) has Biden ahead by two but PPP has a lean towards the Democrats so nothing to move the state out of the TCTC column.
In Texas, a UMass/Lowell poll has Trump ahead 47-46
There's been a lot of polling in Texas and plenty of argument on here that Biden winning represents a value bet. That may well be but in terms of winning the State, I'm still not convinced. The changes on the last equivalent UMass/Lowell poll are Trump -1 and Biden +2. I'm keeping Texas in the Red column but if we see a couple more decent polls for Biden it'll go in the TCTC column.
In Ohio, a Quinnipiac poll has Biden up five (48-43) and I'm happy to keep the state in the TCTC column thought now leaning to Biden.
Four other states which are not marginals have polls out - in New Hampshire, Biden leads by ten which is a 5% swing from 2016. In Virginia, Biden leads by twelve so a 3.5% swing from 2016. As for New Jersey, a 24 point Biden lead represents a 5% swing from 2016. On the Red front, a rare poll from Alabama has a 19-point Trump lead represents a 4.5% swing to Biden from 2016.
Four non-marginal states and a consistent 3.5-5% swing to Biden suggesting a national poll lead of 9-12 points though with the swing less in the marginal states perhaps nearer a 6-8 point lead.
I've just come back from my uncle's funeral in Inverness, a sad event made grimmer by Covid and other elements (however that's not it). Turns out that through my Lewis gran I'm distantly related to The Donald, a common great x grandfather at some point in the 19th century, one of the MacLeods of Portvoller apparently.
I have a single orange bristle in my beard, I'm hoping that's the only instance of common genetic inheritance.
Sorry that your uncle is no longer with us.
As for you NOW is your golden opportunity to get in on the action, and write a "tell-all" book from within America's most notorious family! "Clan Trumpsky - Scotland's Not-So-Secret Shame"
Thanks for condolences SeaShanty, ydoethur and others.
Strangely Trump came up independently of the family revelation (that was at the funeral meats). My uncle was a Liberal Unionist who loathed Brexit and Trump, and his son, my cousin, in his tribute brought up Trump as the polar opposite of of the person that was my uncle. Weird how politics crops up.
The Isle Lewis has it's own sort of rascals who are not really brashly Trumpian, more Odysseus the Trickster types. This is a good example, an interesting story even if you're not a Lewisman I think.
Ohio simply has to be the ultimate bellwether state, evidenced by the fact that in the 31 General Elections since 1896, it has only twice (in 1944 and 1960) failed to vote for the winning candidate, meaning that it has backed the winner unerringly over the past 56 years! Furthermore, no Republican has ever won the Presidency without winning Ohio. Against such a background, it is interesting to note that despite the betting markets having Trump as the clear favourite to win this state with Betfair Exchange showing net odds of 1.40, Biden, shown in the most recent polls as having a clear lead, has to be the value bet at 3.09 not only to land the state but to continue its startling record of correctly backing the winner over a consecutive period of 60 years. Show me a better U.S. Election bet offering odds of better than 2/1! As ever, DYOR.
Just saw a map of "The most tastiest dished in Europe"
Aside from the redundant "most" AND fact that they still consider the UK as part of Europe, the most shocking thing yours truly has learned, is that the Welsh eat Faggots!
Is Wales a focus for LBGT tourism? AND if so, is THIS the reason?
True story. A colleague of mine at another university used the word 'faggot' in the Old English context of a bundle of sticks. Or so he claimed.
He regretted it, when a faced a lengthy disciplinary case.
But in Wales, faggot does indeed usually refer to meatballs, made from liver & pork off-cuts. They were a take-away dish of the poor, usually sold at open-air markets, etc.
But, faggots gradually came to be supplanted by Big Macs and burgers and kebabs.
They are still made by my local butcher on Fridays. And bought by the elderly.
My wife can't understand why I like them, but she's prepared to buy and cook them every so often.
Just saw a map of "The most tastiest dished in Europe"
Aside from the redundant "most" AND fact that they still consider the UK as part of Europe, the most shocking thing yours truly has learned, is that the Welsh eat Faggots!
Is Wales a focus for LBGT tourism? AND if so, is THIS the reason?
True story. A colleague of mine at another university used the word 'faggot' in the Old English context of a bundle of sticks. Or so he claimed.
He regretted it, when a faced a lengthy disciplinary case.
But in Wales, faggot does indeed usually refer to meatballs, made from liver & pork off-cuts. They were a take-away dish of the poor, usually sold at open-air markets, etc.
But, faggots gradually came to be supplanted by Big Macs and burgers and kebabs.
They are still made by my local butcher on Fridays. And bought by the elderly.
I'm so old I can remember them being sold as a tv dinner type meal in the freezer cabinet in supermarkets (and not in Wales).
Still sell them at tesco "Brain's Pork Faggots" - lovely stuff, couple of years since I last felt the need to buy some.
Comments
With the segregated Democratic South and the Republican north-east. Because nothing lasts forever.
That is a thin blue line flag, a flag supporting the police, It isn't an "anti-BLM" flag, unless you condone people attacking the police.
UK police officers can wear similar badges, are you calling them fascist?
We control the Lizard People.
Who control the Illuminati
Who control the Banks
delegation and all that.
That is, aside from the joining Labour because of him bit (I joined last December), but if I'd been in the party in 2015, I'm pretty sure I'd have voted for him. I always had concerns about some of his followers - saw some very unpleasant behaviour from Socialist Workers in my university days - but the party desperately needed to find its soul. I know there's the fear that they will lose their soul again now he's gone, but I don't see much grounds for that fear.
Aside from the redundant "most" AND fact that they still consider the UK as part of Europe, the most shocking thing yours truly has learned, is that the Welsh eat Faggots!
Is Wales a focus for LBGT tourism? AND if so, is THIS the reason?
Blimey, indeed!
https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/jjt1qy/the_most_tastiest_dishes_in_europe/
The Left needs better leaders and ideas people to avoid squandering the next chance. Corbyn has to be cleared out to let that happen.
https://youtu.be/unORPOtavqM
As for the rest, I shouldn’t be perturbed. The Queen’s related to Dubya and she lives it down. We judge you on your posts not on being a distant cousin of an ape, which let’s face it, we all are.
This will still not stop me endlessly mocking you when the SNP lose an election, although the way things are going I may have to wait for about 50 years.
2,956,572 Turnout +26 Biden = +768708 advantage
Trump +34 Remainder to draw level = 0.34 (R) = 768708
768708 / 0.34 = 2,260,906 Implied remaining turnout = 5,217,480 for Trumpers to draw level.
Certainly one of Trumpton's better NC polls.
As for you NOW is your golden opportunity to get in on the action, and write a "tell-all" book from within America's most notorious family! "Clan Trumpsky - Scotland's Not-So-Secret Shame"
He regretted it, when a faced a lengthy disciplinary case.
But in Wales, faggot does indeed usually refer to meatballs, made from liver & pork off-cuts. They were a take-away dish of the poor, usually sold at open-air markets, etc.
But, faggots gradually came to be supplanted by Big Macs and burgers and kebabs.
They are still made by my local butcher on Fridays. And bought by the elderly.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2011/06/gobeki-tepe/
I mean, I know the Labour Party is now in the running for the cherished prize of the LadyG vote, but those numbers betoken the cost may be some substantial blood-letting.
My suspicion is, after all the blood, LadyG might decide after all to stick with the Tories.
Key state THAT election was California, which Woodrow Wilson won by margin of +3,420 votes over Republican nominee Charles Evans Hughes, out of 999,250 cast that year in the Golden State.
IF Wilson had lost CA which then had 13 EV, Hughes would have been elected President.
One reason why Hughes lost CA was because (according to some historians) he dissed Governor Hiram Johnson, a Republican progressive who in 1912 defected from the GOP to be Theodore Roosevelt's VP running mate on the Bull Moose ticket.
Whether or not Hughes was guilty of personal discourtesy is debatable - Hiram Johnson was VERY thin skinned and prima donna to boot) but it's clear that his followers did NOT go all out for Hughes.
And the rest, they say, is history.
https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1321878691081723904?s=20
The Leader of the party accepted the report unequivocally, and one of his MPs equivocated on it publicly, and due to his former position most damagingly. On an issue with such prominence it'd be like rebelling on a hypothetical 4 line whip.
It's not even as though Starmer handed Corbyn a rope to hang himself, Corbyn just blundered his way in.
He's nothing if not stubborn, and you could say it's a clean trap that they've set up for him, but it's one he knowingly jumped into.
Maybe Florida, but that’s only if time permits.
Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida - they’re for a week+ prior and yes, aim to win them. But when the line is approaching, you secure the win. If Biden wins MN, MI, WI, and PA, he wins the White House. Don’t do a Hilary.
This is going to be one of those split party things that is good for them rather than being something "voters dont like", I can tell.. a bit like running over a cyclist when performing a U-Turn in a SUV is now the cyclists fault
Will Sir Keir be brave enough to use "U-Turn" in future PMQs do we think?
If Jezza is reinstated it will be great material for Boris
"At least this time his U-Turn has made a cyclist happy instead of putting him in hospital!"
Wilson was convinced he would lose. And he was worried that with a little number called World War One raging, a four month ‘lame duck’ period would be suboptimal.
So he devised a cunning plan:
If he lost, the day after the election, he would make Hughes Secretary of State.
The Vice President would then resign.
After that, Wilson would resign himself
And as a result, under the laws of the time Hughes would immediately become Acting President and could ensure no loss of leadership in the aftermath of the Somme as Britain and Germany effectively began their final direct war of attrition.
As he just clung on, it wasn’t needed. And since 1936 the lame duck period has been cut from four months to two.
But it’s interesting to reflect (a) that could not now happen and (b) that would have made Wilson the first President to resign from office.
Yes it is fascistic.
https://twitter.com/themandalorian/status/1321496959186690049?s=19
Funny how its always the Daily Mails fault...
One source told i the change is “obviously to please the Daily Mail and to make the BBC less of a target by rowing back”.
Most States close on Saturday
I am sorry to hear about your uncle.
1. persuading people who are virtually certain to vote, to vote their way; and
2. urging supporters who MAY not vote to do so.
Note that Trumpsky is solely focused on the latter, while Biden is NOT neglecting the former, unlike Hillary 4 years ago.
Strangely Trump came up independently of the family revelation (that was at the funeral meats). My uncle was a Liberal Unionist who loathed Brexit and Trump, and his son, my cousin, in his tribute brought up Trump as the polar opposite of of the person that was my uncle. Weird how politics crops up.
The Isle Lewis has it's own sort of rascals who are not really brashly Trumpian, more Odysseus the Trickster types. This is a good example, an interesting story even if you're not a Lewisman I think.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Life-Soolivan-Recollections-Traveller-Raconteur/dp/1841583286
Oh and what specie it is.
Now for all those doing likewise, I wonder if their votes in the NEC ballot still count?
NEW THREAD
https://tinyurl.com/y5rkreqh
Also a lot of them don't even make any sense.
It's not like Bradford already has the highest infection rate in the country or anything.
A pulverising of polls this evening as might be expected moving into the final five days of the 2020 American Presidential, Senate, Congressional and Dog-Catcher election campaigns.
Starting with the national polls and Rasmussen charitably gives Biden a sniff tonight with a 48-47 lead. Elsewhere, IBD/TIPP is unchanged at 50-45 while USA Today has a Suffolk poll which has Biden 7.5% ahead (51.8-44.3)
https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2020/10_29_2020_marginals_pdftxt.pdf?la=en&hash=7BE590FE9C03C3188A29E97C1108D5CB75C70362
Three Florida polls including one from Monmouth have Biden ahead by 3-6 points.
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_FL_102920/
On that basis, I'm moving Florida into the Blue column on my map.
A Quinnipiac poll has Trump ahead 47-46 in Iowa - I'm keeping that state TCTC but very much in the lean Trump column.
A couple of Minnesota polls might concern the Biden campaign especially the Survey USA poll showing Biden up by just five 47-42:
https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/20400328/surveyusa1028.pdf
Clinton won Minnesota by just 1.5 points last time and Trump fans have always seen this as one of the potential "flips". A 5-point lead represents a small 1.75% swing from 2016 which would be enough across the board but not by much.
Quinnipiac has Biden up seven in Pennsylvania while North Carolina remains TCTC with one poll showing a 48-48 tie and a Siena poll has a 3-point lead for Biden. (48-45).
In Georgia, a Public Policy Polling poll (!) has Biden ahead by two but PPP has a lean towards the Democrats so nothing to move the state out of the TCTC column.
In Texas, a UMass/Lowell poll has Trump ahead 47-46
https://www.uml.edu/docs/2020-Texas-Oct-Topline_tcm18-331627.pdf
There's been a lot of polling in Texas and plenty of argument on here that Biden winning represents a value bet. That may well be but in terms of winning the State, I'm still not convinced. The changes on the last equivalent UMass/Lowell poll are Trump -1 and Biden +2. I'm keeping Texas in the Red column but if we see a couple more decent polls for Biden it'll go in the TCTC column.
In Ohio, a Quinnipiac poll has Biden up five (48-43) and I'm happy to keep the state in the TCTC column thought now leaning to Biden.
https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3682
Four other states which are not marginals have polls out - in New Hampshire, Biden leads by ten which is a 5% swing from 2016. In Virginia, Biden leads by twelve so a 3.5% swing from 2016. As for New Jersey, a 24 point Biden lead represents a 5% swing from 2016. On the Red front, a rare poll from Alabama has a 19-point Trump lead represents a 4.5% swing to Biden from 2016.
Four non-marginal states and a consistent 3.5-5% swing to Biden suggesting a national poll lead of 9-12 points though with the swing less in the marginal states perhaps nearer a 6-8 point lead.
My map has 314-163 for Biden with 61 TCTC.
Ohio simply has to be the ultimate bellwether state, evidenced by the fact that in the 31 General Elections since 1896, it has only twice (in 1944 and 1960) failed to vote for the winning candidate, meaning that it has backed the winner unerringly over the past 56 years! Furthermore, no Republican has ever won the Presidency without winning Ohio. Against such a background, it is interesting to note that despite the betting markets having Trump as the clear favourite to win this state with Betfair Exchange showing net odds of 1.40, Biden, shown in the most recent polls as having a clear lead, has to be the value bet at 3.09 not only to land the state but to continue its startling record of correctly backing the winner over a consecutive period of 60 years.
Show me a better U.S. Election bet offering odds of better than 2/1!
As ever, DYOR.