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Blimey, I was not expecting this – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,169
edited October 2020 in General
Blimey, I was not expecting this – politicalbetting.com

Keir Starmer’s spokesperson says the decision to suspend Corbyn was made “in light of his comments made today and his failure to retract them subsequently"

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,669
    First, so this thread is visible to comment upon.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Well done Starmer for doing the right thing.

    Good riddance to Corbyn. Vile antisemite and he should have responded to today by being apologetic and showing regret rather than pretending it was all a political witchhunt.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    edited October 2020
    Much better from Starmer, real leadership shown at last.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    BLIMEY, I WAS NOT EXPECTING THIS
    I thought this was going to be about the Biden + 9 Texas poll.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,097
    5....4...3...2...1....twitter-verse implosion.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,669
    https://twitter.com/DamCou/status/1321802931197411328
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,130
    Perhaps he will join the Greens and take his supporters with him?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,480
    I thought it was Starmer resigning for knocking over a cyclist and heading off before he could be breathalised.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,097
    HYUFD said:

    Perhaps he will join the Greens and take his supporters with him?

    Or BLM Party....their policies are right up his street and already been some allegations of antisemitism among the leadership.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,669
    Pulpstar said:

    BLIMEY, I WAS NOT EXPECTING THIS
    I thought this was going to be about the Biden + 9 Texas poll.

    I'm saving that for later, once I've got my betting positions sorted we've digested the Corbyn news.

    Honestly, with that Texas poll and this other poll, this is my view

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1321797065253466113
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Cheerio Corbyn :lol:
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Feck off Corbyn, good riddance
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,551
    Starmer intends to lead an electable party. The big threat is to Boris and his friends. SKS is not only a decent person but can also count. He needs Tories and LDs to vote Labour. He intends to make that possible. This is Clause 4 stuff.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,097
    https://twitter.com/RachelRileyRR/status/1321766156202614789?s=20
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Mega respect to Starmer.

    All of you who have been doubting him - this is what leadership looks like.

    (No, Johnson kicking everyone out in a fit of pique because they quite rightly told him his deal was worse than May’s and would be calamitous isn’t comparable.)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Well done SKS - as noted at the time he’s following due process and the suspension comes from Corbyn’s response to the report, not the report itself. Malevolent old thickie...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    BTW - I hope those posters who kept downplaying the issues Labour had with anti semitism are hanging their heads in shame today
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354
    FPT

    kinabalu said:

    Trump cut to 10% on 538 but 2.86 on Betfair. Has there ever been such a disconnect between evidence and odds on a high profile betting market?

    Yes.

    One Man started the 1996 Gold Cup as the 11-8 favourite but finished sixth behind Imperial Call. Absolutely everybody who knew anything about steeplechasing knew the horse simply could not run at racing speed beyond three miles. The GC is run over a stiff 3m 2f, so it had next to zero chance.

    It was the most extreme example I have ever encountered of the odds being wrong, but the 2020 US Presidential election is running it close.
  • DAlexanderDAlexander Posts: 815
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    HYUFD said:

    Perhaps he will join the Greens and take his supporters with him?

    Or BLM Party....their policies are right up his street and already been some allegations of antisemitism among the leadership.
    https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1321397398002786304
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,097
    edited October 2020
    Just a word of caution, Corbyn isn't out yet. He is suspended pending investigation. Labour Party under the old management managed to suspend lots of people only for when the world was busy with other things that those people were allowed to return.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,958
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/DamCou/status/1321802931197411328

    I must be psychic, I just went to M&S on my lunch break and bought a bag (of popcorn, not toilet paper).
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    https://twitter.com/juliahobsbawm/status/1321804166075949056
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    https://twitter.com/Maomentum_/status/1321804708617637888
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Pulpstar said:

    BLIMEY, I WAS NOT EXPECTING THIS
    I thought this was going to be about the Biden + 9 Texas poll.

    Need to find out more about the pollster
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,669
    FPT
    Pulpstar said:

    Two big outlier polls recently, Wisconsin + 17 / Texas + 9 Biden. I know the sampling WILL be wrong but it's difficult to generate polls like that even as outliers - particularly the Wisconsin one if the true state of the race is anywhere near close.

    Indeed, we're either headed for either a

    i) Biden (landslide) victory
    ii) The biggest polling disaster in history
    iii) Electoral chicanery aided and abetted by the GOP across the states and in SCOTUS handing Trump a second term.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Excellent news - very interesting to see the reaction of his MP supporters now. I remain a Tory because I think Starmer's politics are too left-wing but the Labour party will be boosted by this action and I'm not clear that a Johnson led party will be enough.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    felix said:

    Excellent news - very interesting to see the reaction of his MP supporters now. I remain a Tory because I think Starmer's politics are too left-wing but the Labour party will be boosted by this action and I'm not clear that a Johnson led party will be enough.

    https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1321804286016323585
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,218
    This surprises me, I must admit. There is the benefit of showing that "Under New Leadership" is no empty slogan. Against this is the risk of internal warfare in the party. I would have said the potential damage is greater than the benefit but it looks like Starmer disagrees. Let's see how the Left react.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BLIMEY, I WAS NOT EXPECTING THIS
    I thought this was going to be about the Biden + 9 Texas poll.

    I'm saving that for later, once I've got my betting positions sorted we've digested the Corbyn news.

    Honestly, with that Texas poll and this other poll, this is my view

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1321797065253466113
    Really and truly the TX poll is a turkey – ignore. Massive DEM and BA overpoll.

    But, your point about the graphs is a very fair one!
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    "I suspect Corbyn and his supporters will not be go quietly." , Now thats what I call a very safe bet
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    MikeSmithson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BLIMEY, I WAS NOT EXPECTING THIS
    I thought this was going to be about the Biden + 9 Texas poll.

    Need to find out more about the pollster

    Look at the crosstabs and the amount of registered Dems they found ;)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Well done Starmer for doing the right thing.

    Good riddance to Corbyn. Vile antisemite and he should have responded to today by being apologetic and showing regret rather than pretending it was all a political witchhunt.

    Starmer has fluked his way into playing a blinder here.

    He initially defends Corbyn shoring up the Corbynite base for him. Corbyn makes a statement which forces Starmer to act makking him seem decisive.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Anabobazina said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BLIMEY, I WAS NOT EXPECTING THIS
    I thought this was going to be about the Biden + 9 Texas poll.

    Need to find out more about the pollster

    Look at the crosstabs and the amount of registered Dems they found ;)
    I wasn't quite sure from their documentation on whether it was a poll of Texas, as a whole, or a poll of Texas of those who have already voted.

    If it's the latter, maybe it makes sense.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1321804490513780736?s=20
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    Jack_ W returns and we have a story ....

    I cannot comment on speculation that Jezza and I have been ever seen together in a synagogue .... :smiley:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,097
    edited October 2020
    Mal557 said:

    "I suspect Corbyn and his supporters will not be go quietly." , Now thats what I call a very safe bet

    Plenty of tweets...but lets see if anything else. I presume all the hard core nutter far leftists that were enabled by Jezza leadership will go off and join put their efforts into BLM and XR type organisations.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    We didn't even have to wait for SK
    Yes, it was a good day

    Doo-doodal-a-doo-doo
    Doodal-a-doodal-doo
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,669
    Further proof that Justice Kavanaugh is a cheap hack.

    Kavanaugh tweaks voting opinion after Vermont official asks for correction

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/28/politics/vermont-kavanaugh-voting/index.html
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kinabalu said:

    This surprises me, I must admit. There is the benefit of showing that "Under New Leadership" is no empty slogan. Against this is the risk of internal warfare in the party. I would have said the potential damage is greater than the benefit but it looks like Starmer disagrees. Let's see how the Left react.

    Unless you think a large proportion of Labour voters are antisemites I don't see why kicking out antisemites will damage Labour.

    There are surely more anti-antisemites than there are antisemites?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,834
    kinabalu said:

    This surprises me, I must admit. There is the benefit of showing that "Under New Leadership" is no empty slogan. Against this is the risk of internal warfare in the party. I would have said the potential damage is greater than the benefit but it looks like Starmer disagrees. Let's see how the Left react.

    It is the correct call regardless. Otherwise it will bubble away for another decade. The message is clear to the rest of the party, get behind the party line if you can, shut up about it or leave/be kicked out if you cant.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    JACK_W said:

    Jack_ W returns and we have a story ....

    I cannot comment on speculation that Jezza and I have been ever seen together in a synagogue .... :smiley:

    Great to see you back Jack.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    kinabalu said:

    This surprises me, I must admit. There is the benefit of showing that "Under New Leadership" is no empty slogan. Against this is the risk of internal warfare in the party. I would have said the potential damage is greater than the benefit but it looks like Starmer disagrees. Let's see how the Left react.

    I did have a feeling that Starmer was giving Corbyn the room to make his own downfall rather than giving him the satisfaction of using the EHRC report to do it, and it turns out that it only took Corbyn hours to give Starmer the reason he needed.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    kinabalu said:

    This surprises me, I must admit. There is the benefit of showing that "Under New Leadership" is no empty slogan. Against this is the risk of internal warfare in the party. I would have said the potential damage is greater than the benefit but it looks like Starmer disagrees. Let's see how the Left react.

    He’s a f*cking anti-Semite and you would have ZERO tolerance for a clear and obvious racist in the Tory party. Your true colours are showing.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Just a word of caution, Corbyn isn't out yet. He is suspended pending investigation. Labour Party under the old management managed to suspend lots of people only for when the world was busy with other things that those people were allowed to return.

    One thing I'm pretty sure of is Corbyn will neither apologise for or recant his views, so though technically your right, IMO, he ain't coming back, its allotment time.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,097
    RH1992 said:

    kinabalu said:

    This surprises me, I must admit. There is the benefit of showing that "Under New Leadership" is no empty slogan. Against this is the risk of internal warfare in the party. I would have said the potential damage is greater than the benefit but it looks like Starmer disagrees. Let's see how the Left react.

    I did have a feeling that Starmer was giving Corbyn the room to make his own downfall rather than giving him the satisfaction of using the EHRC report to do it, and it turns out that it only took Corbyn hours to give Starmer the reason he needed.
    Jezza shows again he isn't very smart.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,591
    O/T

    I know people don't usually discuss US presidential elections in these terms but Biden needs a 0.38% swing compared to 2016 to win the election. At the moment his average swing per state is 3.7%. The figure in the swing states is 3.4% if you define them as comprising AZ, FL, GA, IA, MI, OH, PA, TX, WI.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Haha marvellous of Keir Starmer. I love it!!!!!!!!

    Meanwhile back to the US ....
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    kinabalu said:

    Trump cut to 10% on 538 but 2.86 on Betfair. Has there ever been such a disconnect between evidence and odds on a high profile betting market?

    Yes.

    One Man started the 1996 Gold Cup as the 11-8 favourite but finished sixth behind Imperial Call. Absolutely everybody who knew anything about steeplechasing knew the horse simply could not run at racing speed beyond three miles. The GC is run over a stiff 3m 2f, so it had next to zero chance.

    It was the most extreme example I have ever encountered of the odds being wrong, but the 2020 US Presidential election is running it close.

    This is such a fantastic betting opportunity. Okay so the odds aren't always eye-popping but there's money to be made.

    I'm sure Florida is going Democrat. But if you want a cracking bet it's 2/1 on Ossoff in Georgia.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    HYUFD said:

    Perhaps he will join the Greens and take his supporters with him?

    I really hope they don't join the Greens - who are trying to build a real, sensible political party, in many ways.

    Maomentum should join the SWP. They deserve each other. Especially Komrade Delta and chums...
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    Alistair said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Well done Starmer for doing the right thing.

    Good riddance to Corbyn. Vile antisemite and he should have responded to today by being apologetic and showing regret rather than pretending it was all a political witchhunt.

    Starmer has fluked his way into playing a blinder here.

    He initially defends Corbyn shoring up the Corbynite base for him. Corbyn makes a statement which forces Starmer to act makking him seem decisive.
    'Fluked his way into playing a blinder' . so taking a leaf out of Boris's playbook.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,669
    https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1321807410500128768
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    Starmer kicks out the former leader of his party. Johnson can't even sack an aide. Only one of these men has shown real leadership.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    By their friends yea shall know them.....

    https://twitter.com/M_Star_Online/status/1321804982614634499?s=20
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    So what can Corbyn do now?

    1) Hope he’s exonerated, and crawl back on Starmer’s terms.

    2) Sit as an independent or resign his seat and take his humongous pension

    3) Join another party that matches his views more closely.

    It’s a no-brainer. He should do what he’s clearly always secretly wanted to do. Join a party that promotes high welfare dependency, nationalising rail, and is run by thick white posh boys like him who keep saying horrendous things they don’t realise are racist...

    Time for him to fuck off and join the Tories.

    (No, this is not meant entirely seriously.)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Oh my. This will be interesting.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MikeSmithson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BLIMEY, I WAS NOT EXPECTING THIS
    I thought this was going to be about the Biden + 9 Texas poll.

    Need to find out more about the pollster
    It is a shite looking poll - various number look/feel wrong.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,958
    Philip_Thompson said:

    kinabalu said:

    This surprises me, I must admit. There is the benefit of showing that "Under New Leadership" is no empty slogan. Against this is the risk of internal warfare in the party. I would have said the potential damage is greater than the benefit but it looks like Starmer disagrees. Let's see how the Left react.

    Unless you think a large proportion of Labour voters are antisemites I don't see why kicking out antisemites will damage Labour.

    There are surely more anti-antisemites than there are antisemites?
    The point, surely, is how many Labour voters (and MPs) worship the ground Corbyn walks on and won't accept that he's done any wrong. They now have another reason to hate Starmer (who - obviously - made the right call here).
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    I know people don't usually discuss US presidential elections in these terms but Biden needs a 0.38% swing compared to 2016 to win the election. At the moment his average swing per state is 3.7%. The figure in the swing states is 3.4% if you define them as comprising AZ, FL, GA, IA, MI, OH, PA, TX, WI.

    That's a fair point – and perhaps too rarely discussed.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Starmer kicks out the former leader of his party. Johnson can't even sack an aide. Only one of these men has shown real leadership.

    I mean, Johnson did sack half his party in the last Parliament.
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998
    LadyG said:

    kinabalu said:

    This surprises me, I must admit. There is the benefit of showing that "Under New Leadership" is no empty slogan. Against this is the risk of internal warfare in the party. I would have said the potential damage is greater than the benefit but it looks like Starmer disagrees. Let's see how the Left react.

    He’s a f*cking anti-Semite and you would have ZERO tolerance for a clear and obvious racist in the Tory party. Your true colours are showing.
    Part of the problem, though, is that racists are always clear and obvious in other parties. There will be a good many people, not least on this site, who will never recognise their own tribe's failings.
    Anybody celebrating the downfall of Corbyn as the end of something is wrong. We should be celebrating it as the beginning.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    ydoethur said:

    Mega respect to Starmer.

    All of you who have been doubting him - this is what leadership looks like.

    (No, Johnson kicking everyone out in a fit of pique because they quite rightly told him his deal was worse than May’s and would be calamitous isn’t comparable.)

    Bozo promising on national TV an independent investigation into his own party’s issues, then burying this as soon as he got the top job, doesn’t look so bright now.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,816
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Starmer kicks out the former leader of his party. Johnson can't even sack an aide. Only one of these men has shown real leadership.

    Nice try but somehow I don't think this can be turned into a positive Labour /negative Tory story!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,669
    Alistair said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BLIMEY, I WAS NOT EXPECTING THIS
    I thought this was going to be about the Biden + 9 Texas poll.

    Need to find out more about the pollster
    It is a shite looking poll - various number look/feel wrong.
    Do you have the tables?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    The 13% aren't going to take this well.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Good for Starmer. Turf a few more of the nutters out and we might start to get politics that actually work.

    Now, let us hope that the Conservatives reject some of their swivel-eyed loons too, but I am not holding my breath on that one...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alistair said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BLIMEY, I WAS NOT EXPECTING THIS
    I thought this was going to be about the Biden + 9 Texas poll.

    Need to find out more about the pollster
    It is a shite looking poll - various number look/feel wrong.
    Do you have the tables?
    This one?

    https://github.com/GetCitizenData/VoteByMail/blob/master/VoteByMail-Texas/Modeling/October/Texas VBM Toplines 10_23_20.pdf
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Mysticrose said:

    Haha marvellous of Keir Starmer. I love it!!!!!!!!

    Meanwhile back to the US ....

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    kinabalu said:

    Trump cut to 10% on 538 but 2.86 on Betfair. Has there ever been such a disconnect between evidence and odds on a high profile betting market?

    Yes.

    One Man started the 1996 Gold Cup as the 11-8 favourite but finished sixth behind Imperial Call. Absolutely everybody who knew anything about steeplechasing knew the horse simply could not run at racing speed beyond three miles. The GC is run over a stiff 3m 2f, so it had next to zero chance.

    It was the most extreme example I have ever encountered of the odds being wrong, but the 2020 US Presidential election is running it close.

    This is such a fantastic betting opportunity. Okay so the odds aren't always eye-popping but there's money to be made.

    I'm sure Florida is going Democrat. But if you want a cracking bet it's 2/1 on Ossoff in Georgia.
    Yes, if I was wanting to gamble then Ossoff looks like the prime bet.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Corbyn’s mistake was in not appreciating that Starmer would be looking for his own Clause Four moment.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    I believe that Citizen Data are only polling people who have voted early.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/sam_baker/status/1321805972101279745?s=20
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    I wonder what it will mean for the next GE. I would have thought a lot of Labour Corbynistas would stay loyal to him and his cronies if they moved to BLM, Ind or Green and so it’s worse for them, but credit to Sir Keir for doing what he thought was the right thing despite that
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    I thought SKS was angry, calm and measured. He had very uncomfortable time with the press after his statement, I thought his replies were defensive. I wondered if he had read Corbyn's comments on Facebook, which amounted to a shout of 'Come and Have A Go If You Think Your Hard Enough.' It looks as if Starmer took up the challenge.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    https://twitter.com/AshleyRParker/status/1321808751343603712
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    isam said:

    I wonder what it will mean for the next GE. I would have thought a lot of Labour Corbynistas would stay loyal to him and his cronies if they moved to BLM, Ind or Green and so it’s worse for them, but credit to Sir Keir for doing what he thought was the right thing despite that

    He will have a massive surge of centrist support. The kind of people you need to win an election. As Tony Blair conclusively demonstrated (for all his faults).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Gallowgate said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Starmer kicks out the former leader of his party. Johnson can't even sack an aide. Only one of these men has shown real leadership.

    I mean, Johnson did sack half his party in the last Parliament.
    Just a shame that the criteria for those sackings were all wrong.
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,529
    I wonder what the union positions are on this. Does SKS have their support, and - if not - what are the financial consequences for Labour?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,685
    edited October 2020
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT

    Pulpstar said:

    Two big outlier polls recently, Wisconsin + 17 / Texas + 9 Biden. I know the sampling WILL be wrong but it's difficult to generate polls like that even as outliers - particularly the Wisconsin one if the true state of the race is anywhere near close.

    Indeed, we're either headed for either a

    i) Biden (landslide) victory
    ii) The biggest polling disaster in history
    iii) Electoral chicanery aided and abetted by the GOP across the states and in SCOTUS handing Trump a second term.
    iii) = The end of days scenario really. Democracy across the world would not survive being deserted by its historic cheerleader.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    I would not be surprised if we see a split now.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,834
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mega respect to Starmer.

    All of you who have been doubting him - this is what leadership looks like.

    (No, Johnson kicking everyone out in a fit of pique because they quite rightly told him his deal was worse than May’s and would be calamitous isn’t comparable.)

    Bozo promising on national TV an independent investigation into his own party’s issues, then burying this as soon as he got the top job, doesn’t look so bright now.
    It helped him get the top job and if you lie as much as he does, no-one can really blame him when they find out he lied again. It is what makes him and Trump scandal proof.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,669
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1321809311581016065
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Gallowgate said:

    I believe that Citizen Data are only polling people who have voted early.

    Aha – that makes more sense!!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    edited October 2020
    If Citizen Data is right and Biden is +10 ahead in early voting, what do we think that means for the election, considering Texas is already at 94% of 2016's turnout?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1321809311581016065

    Dangerous times.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,669
    Gallowgate said:

    I believe that Citizen Data are only polling people who have voted early.

    Thanks.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Gallowgate said:

    If Citizen Data is right and Biden is +10 ahead in early voting, what do we think that means for the election, considering Texas is already at 94% of 2016's turnout?

    If its accurate then buy Biden on the spreads.

    If.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    Gallowgate said:

    I believe that Citizen Data are only polling people who have voted early.

    If that's correct and the poll is only up to the 20th Oct then its more for the shredder than the bin, with just a few days to go
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    Mal557 said:

    Alistair said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Well done Starmer for doing the right thing.

    Good riddance to Corbyn. Vile antisemite and he should have responded to today by being apologetic and showing regret rather than pretending it was all a political witchhunt.

    Starmer has fluked his way into playing a blinder here.

    He initially defends Corbyn shoring up the Corbynite base for him. Corbyn makes a statement which forces Starmer to act makking him seem decisive.
    'Fluked his way into playing a blinder' . so taking a leaf out of Boris's playbook.
    In retrospect Corbyn replying the way he did was inevitable - it is the same line he has taken since the beginning.

    Waiting for his reaction was an intelligent move. On this, Corbyn's record is to pickup a belt-fed machine gun. And aim it at his own feet.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Gallowgate said:

    If Citizen Data is right and Biden is +10 ahead in early voting, what do we think that means for the election, considering Texas is already at 94% of 2016's turnout?

    Applying the PB statistics theorem, it means Biden will get 104% of the vote ....

    :D:D:D
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    If Citizen Data is right and Biden is +10 ahead in early voting, what do we think that means for the election, considering Texas is already at 94% of 2016's turnout?

    If its accurate then buy Biden on the spreads.

    If.
    Look at the dates of the poll
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 757
    What would have happened if he was PM? (I mean re: the EHRC report, not brexit, or nationalising broadband at exactly the wrong time, or...)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,669
    https://twitter.com/HPIAndyCowper/status/1321809786380439553
  • DAlexanderDAlexander Posts: 815
    Mysticrose said:

    isam said:

    I wonder what it will mean for the next GE. I would have thought a lot of Labour Corbynistas would stay loyal to him and his cronies if they moved to BLM, Ind or Green and so it’s worse for them, but credit to Sir Keir for doing what he thought was the right thing despite that

    He will have a massive surge of centrist support. The kind of people you need to win an election. As Tony Blair conclusively demonstrated (for all his faults).
    Blair did manage keep the more left wing elements in the party as well though.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Mal557 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    If Citizen Data is right and Biden is +10 ahead in early voting, what do we think that means for the election, considering Texas is already at 94% of 2016's turnout?

    If its accurate then buy Biden on the spreads.

    If.
    Look at the dates of the poll
    From memory hadn't about 50% voted in TX by the 20th?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Lining the dustbin of history.

    https://twitter.com/M_Star_Online/status/1321804982614634499
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    noneoftheabove said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mega respect to Starmer.

    All of you who have been doubting him - this is what leadership looks like.

    (No, Johnson kicking everyone out in a fit of pique because they quite rightly told him his deal was worse than May’s and would be calamitous isn’t comparable.)

    Bozo promising on national TV an independent investigation into his own party’s issues, then burying this as soon as he got the top job, doesn’t look so bright now.
    It helped him get the top job and if you lie as much as he does, no-one can really blame him when they find out he lied again. It is what makes him and Trump scandal proof.
    Johnson appears to use the strategy of saying whatever it takes to survive until tomorrow. What he said yesterday will then be irrelevant...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,685
    edited October 2020
    Gallowgate said:

    I believe that Citizen Data are only polling people who have voted early.

    Ok but worth remembering that 94% of the 2016 turnout have now voted in Texas.

    https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

    Edit: Apols - I see others have already made this point - playing catch-up here on this quiet news day.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    MikeSmithson said:

    Great to see you back Jack.

    Thank you Mike and to others for their kind words.

    Bit of a torrid time this past year or so (the cuisine in Parkhurst is shocking don't you know) .... pleased to be out for the show across the pond.

    Would you care for a POTUS thread submission from my "Against The Grain" theme?


  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    Beibheirli_C said:

    Gallowgate said:

    If Citizen Data is right and Biden is +10 ahead in early voting, what do we think that means for the election, considering Texas is already at 94% of 2016's turnout?

    Applying the PB statistics theorem, it means Biden will get 104% of the vote ....

    :D:D:D
    But Trump will still find a way to claim voter fraud and win :)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Mal557 said:

    Alistair said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Well done Starmer for doing the right thing.

    Good riddance to Corbyn. Vile antisemite and he should have responded to today by being apologetic and showing regret rather than pretending it was all a political witchhunt.

    Starmer has fluked his way into playing a blinder here.

    He initially defends Corbyn shoring up the Corbynite base for him. Corbyn makes a statement which forces Starmer to act makking him seem decisive.
    'Fluked his way into playing a blinder' . so taking a leaf out of Boris's playbook.
    Except for the blinder ending, for sure.
This discussion has been closed.