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Blimey, I was not expecting this – politicalbetting.com

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  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Lisa Nandy excellent on BBC 5 o'clock news. A word perfect response. I haven't really rated her before but she's very good
  • justin124 said:

    tlg86 said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The best thing the tories could do at the moment is to STFU about this, and let it play out.
    Reminding the country that Starmer has kicked out Corbyn will play well with voters who like Starmer but were put off by Corbyn's Labour.
    Put off to the extent that his best vote share at GE's was only bettered by Blair in recent times, and his worst was better than Brown and Miliband's?

    How can people ignore those facts? I find it incredible from anyone interested in serious analysis
    Fans of single data points might like that type of analysis, but I'm looking at

    1) The relative Tory lead in 2019 (from which the next election flows) which is nearly double what happened in 2010 and 2015.

    2) Again look at the seat numbers, his very worst was one of Labour's very worst.

    Ooooh you are so clever, I forgot haha!!

    He attracted more supporters than people who dislike his politics are prepared to give him credit for, and they assume that those supporters will just turn up and vote for the people who kicked him out. I'd say they are more likely to make him a martyr
    In both elections he contested he also saw the Tory vote share (and actual votes) increase to levels not seen for over a quarter of a century/thirty years.

    He managed to attract supporters, but he managed to attract people to vote for his opponents.
    Are you surprised that the Lib Dems are sinking into oblivion? Really those that held their nose and voted Tory should be going over to the yellows, at least in the mid-term polling that we have now.
    LDs do well when Labour are electable and badly otherwise. Centrist Tories and old fashioned liberals are reluctant to vote for them if it could lead to a Corbyn/Foot type government. That fear will have reduced today. The LDs need to have a better platform though and move away from Brexit.
    The Alliance did well in 1983 and 1987 when Labour was weak.
    In 1983 they had more incumbents defeated than their total seats won. Under New Labour, in every GE the LDs got over double the MPs they did in 1983, 1987 or under Corbyn. Yes they got reasonable vote shares, but their vote percentage:seats won being more inefficient when Labour are very lefty backs up my view that people then wont vote for them out of fear for Labour left rather than love for Tories.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,463

    Roger said:

    dr_spyn said:
    I'm Spartacus! I thought Corbyn was the worst leader Labour have ever had and from the moment he was elected I didn't think he had a snowball in Hell's chance of winning but I never believed and still don't that he 'has a racist bone in his body' to quote his son and there aren't many Party leaders i could say that about. Just a few examples Michael Howard (Gypsies etc) Margaret Thatcher (South Africa) Boris Johnson (Watermelons and pilarboxes) IDS (don't get me started........)
    Do you not think Corbyn is confused? Corbyn conflates Neatanyahu extremism with people like Margaret Hodge and Luciana Berger. Whether he means to or not is irrelevant. It is still anti-Semitic.

    I don't like seeing Israeli forces open automatic fire on Palestinian teenagers when one throws a stone at a soldier, but I don't blame Luciana Berger for the carnage.
    Exactly right. That 'confusion' was the problem. It's not unreasonable to be critical of the policies of the current Israeli government; it is unreasonable to 'blame' citizens and indeed legislators in the UK for them, purely on racial grounds.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Similar story with Georgia. Very slight correlation between Clinton vote share and current turnout.


  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    And that's the problem. No, Jezza isn't a Nazi. I'm confident that, if you placed him in a Good Samaritan scenario, he would stop and help the injured man, no matter how Jewish he was. He's just too dim to realise that many of the allies he has collected over the years are actively antisemitic, and too arrogant to step back when this is pointed out to him.

    The kindest way to see Jez is as a kind of holy fool. For his many fans, the holy excused the foolishness. They were wrong.
    That's very good.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Yes Mitterrand did fancy Thatcher.

    Absolutely bizarre.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    Scott_xP said:
    And still no decision on Tier 3 for West Yorks.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Stocky said:

    Gillian Anderson as Thatcher is simply superb. The hair. The mannerisms. THE VOICE.

    Gave me the horn.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiXEpminPms

    What a disturbing image.

    You can have my Kleenex CR, I won't be needing them any more.
    I once got a semi watching Princess Fiona in Shrek.

    Anyone match that?
    The human or ogre iteration?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:
    Perhaps humour doesn't travel well between countries,
    Was never a problem for Asterix comics.
    There was a lot in the translation rather than the French original which made them appeal so much to eg the UK.
    Now hang on - whilst that is true, the original French Astérix books are absolutely hilarious, some of the funniest things I've ever seen. The translators did a good job in coming up with funny English equivalents rather than literal translations of the jokes.

    More generally, though, French newspaper cartoons are absolutely dire. Almost as bad as Steve Bell but without even the viciousness.
    Well I can't comment on that - I thought (and think) that the Asterix books are fantastic and I suppose, thinking about it, it makes sense that something which is funny when it's translated is funny in the original.

    But to the point made about humour travelling, I would be interested to know whether eg. Vitalstatistix is the same type of humour in the original or whether it's funny in a different way.
    It's the same kind of humour. In the original he's Abraracourcix:

    (à bras raccourcis, literally — "with shortened arms" from the French phrase tomber sur quelqu'un à bras raccourcis – "to attack someone with violence")

    Most of the names are a bit more straightforward than that, eg Assurancetourix ("assurance tous risques" = comprehensive insurance) for the village bard (Cacofonix in the English version)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Asterix_characters
    In the early 70s I used to watch The Magic Roundabout with our small children then continued doing so in France with the original "Le manège enchanté" when we lived in Paris. The scripts were totally different for the same animation. But the English language one was the funnier in my opinion, both for the adults and the children.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129
    ydoethur said:

    Ok, so apart from Corbyn and MacDonald, here's the other two Labour leaders to have lost the whip.

    https://twitter.com/RobertGCurrie/status/1321858266792660993

    Silly to include Foot 19 years before he was leader.

    Macdonald lost the whip in both 1914 and 1931, both times while leader (remarkably).

    How did he become Leader a second time having already lost the whio while leader once?
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    Florida - Monmouth - A+ rated

    Biden 50 .. Trump 45 - RV
    Biden 51 .. Trump 45 - LV High Turnout
    Biden 50 .. Trump 46 - LV Low Turnout

    https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_FL_102920/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    IshmaelZ said:

    Stocky said:

    Gillian Anderson as Thatcher is simply superb. The hair. The mannerisms. THE VOICE.

    Gave me the horn.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiXEpminPms

    What a disturbing image.

    You can have my Kleenex CR, I won't be needing them any more.
    I once got a semi watching Princess Fiona in Shrek.

    Anyone match that?
    The human or ogre iteration?
    One of them was ugly and badly drawn and nobody could love her.

    But TBF the ogre incarnation was quite cute.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    edited October 2020
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    kinabalu said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    This anti-Semitic bullshit is now deeply entwined with much leftist, “progressive” politics

    All power to Starmer if he can purge it in Britain

    https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1321397398002786304?s=21

    Bullshit, antisemitism is on the extremes of the left and right.

    Or did you miss Trump's supporters chanting 'Jews will not replace us' or the background of alleged perpetrator of the Tree of Life synagogue shooting?
    Yawn. I didn’t even mention the right. Straw man.

    However I do believe anti-Semitic discourse is now readily accepted on the mainstream Left in a way it isn’t on the right (tho it was, once). Look at these people attending a Corbyn rally. They clearly think it’s OK to say this stuff into a camera.

    https://twitter.com/socialm85897394/status/1202531867863474176?s=21
    There was a very good interview with Bari Weiss on Sam Harris podcast on the range of antisemitism...the right (Great replacement stuff), the left (the rich Jews control the world), the Islamists (the Jews must be removed from existence).
    I’ve no doubt there is anti-semitism on the right. Still. The difference is that the right, at least, belatedly perceives it as shameful and ugly, so it is all furtive. Whispers. Little asides that make you wonder

    Two generations of anti-Israeli discourse on the left (much of it justified, re the Israeli government) has now morphed into open contempt, dislike, hatred of Jews, and because the Left sees itself as morally beyond reproach, they feel free to express it openly, as so many in their social/political circles agree entirely. Then they are genuinely shocked when others are horrified.

    That’s the problem. That’s the hole Corbyn has fallen into. It is sad.
    I agree that Corbyn has fallen into a sad-shaped hole. But the hole that you have fallen into is rather sad too. Or are you - unlike Jeremy - able to immerse yourself in shit and yet remain pristine? I'll answer my own question this time. No - I don't believe you can.
    Today's not the day for whatboutery. Today is about Corbyn getting the political kicking he richly deserves.
    That fact that SOME of the people issuing the kicks are shameless supporters of other racists should make any right-minded person feel itchy, but today is NOT the day.
    When they get their turn, and they will, there will be no whataboutery allowed either. This needs to play out, because anti-racism is much, much more important than ideology.
    Very true, but Corbyn's ideology is for the birds. No apology forth coming from Corbyn to the poor, malnourished schoolchildren of England who will not get a meal over the Christmas Holidays, for it is Corbyn who personally delivered Boris Johnson his 80 seat majority. A majority he can use exactly as he pleases.
    I get where you're coming from, and I don't really want to get into a left v right argument, because that's not really the point today. But I would say that nobody is making the policy choices of the current government other than the current government. If there's something about the Conservative government you find attractive or objectionable, the fairest place to put the praise or the blame is on the Conservative government.
    My point is Corbyn facilitated Boris Johnson.

    When Corbyn was part of a Labour Party in Government he opposed. It is like he prefers to live under a Conservative Government. Perpetual opposition is his default- but it furnishes not one free school meal.
  • Yes Mitterrand did fancy Thatcher.

    Absolutely bizarre.

    A priapic Frenchman? Unheard of.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    kinabalu said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    This anti-Semitic bullshit is now deeply entwined with much leftist, “progressive” politics

    All power to Starmer if he can purge it in Britain

    https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1321397398002786304?s=21

    Bullshit, antisemitism is on the extremes of the left and right.

    Or did you miss Trump's supporters chanting 'Jews will not replace us' or the background of alleged perpetrator of the Tree of Life synagogue shooting?
    Yawn. I didn’t even mention the right. Straw man.

    However I do believe anti-Semitic discourse is now readily accepted on the mainstream Left in a way it isn’t on the right (tho it was, once). Look at these people attending a Corbyn rally. They clearly think it’s OK to say this stuff into a camera.

    https://twitter.com/socialm85897394/status/1202531867863474176?s=21
    There was a very good interview with Bari Weiss on Sam Harris podcast on the range of antisemitism...the right (Great replacement stuff), the left (the rich Jews control the world), the Islamists (the Jews must be removed from existence).
    I’ve no doubt there is anti-semitism on the right. Still. The difference is that the right, at least, belatedly perceives it as shameful and ugly, so it is all furtive. Whispers. Little asides that make you wonder

    Two generations of anti-Israeli discourse on the left (much of it justified, re the Israeli government) has now morphed into open contempt, dislike, hatred of Jews, and because the Left sees itself as morally beyond reproach, they feel free to express it openly, as so many in their social/political circles agree entirely. Then they are genuinely shocked when others are horrified.

    That’s the problem. That’s the hole Corbyn has fallen into. It is sad.
    I agree that Corbyn has fallen into a sad-shaped hole. But the hole that you have fallen into is rather sad too. Or are you - unlike Jeremy - able to immerse yourself in shit and yet remain pristine? I'll answer my own question this time. No - I don't believe you can.
    Old, shite smeared identities can be sloughed off revealing shiny new ones. The question does remain how many times that can be done without completely devaluing the 'brand'.
    Mmm. Well usually with that skillful Construct, I discerningly take its often fabulous Covid and travel and other "human interest" stuff and skip the decidedly wiffy politics.

    But the provocation this time was too much and I simply had to act.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,425

    Similar story with Georgia. Very slight correlation between Clinton vote share and current turnout.


    The biggest problem with these correlations is the different sizes of the counties.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    edited October 2020
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ok, so apart from Corbyn and MacDonald, here's the other two Labour leaders to have lost the whip.

    https://twitter.com/RobertGCurrie/status/1321858266792660993

    Silly to include Foot 19 years before he was leader.

    Macdonald lost the whip in both 1914 and 1931, both times while leader (remarkably).

    How did he become Leader a second time having already lost the whio while leader once?
    Because until 1922 Labour elected a Chairman, annually, rather than having a Leader per se. So it was done on the basis of Buggins Turn.

    In 1919 when the Labour Party reunited it was informally agreed this would be balanced between a pacifist and a supporter of the war. So Clynes, who served under Lloyd George, led them to the official opposition in 1922 and the following year Macdonald, who had led the pacifist wing, took over and led them to power. After that, it was agreed that annual changes of leadership were a bad idea and Macdonald as a former PM and Foreign Secretary was therefore made leade full time as the most prestigious and visible of their MPs.

    With hindsight they got that the wrong way around. Clynes would not have buggered up as much as Macdonald did in 1931, if only because he wasn’t such a damn snob.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kinabalu said:

    And that's the problem. No, Jezza isn't a Nazi. I'm confident that, if you placed him in a Good Samaritan scenario, he would stop and help the injured man, no matter how Jewish he was. He's just too dim to realise that many of the allies he has collected over the years are actively antisemitic, and too arrogant to step back when this is pointed out to him.

    The kindest way to see Jez is as a kind of holy fool. For his many fans, the holy excused the foolishness. They were wrong.
    That's very good.
    It's very bad indeed. It might just about be the case if he was the unluckiest, stupidest and least observant man in the world and his, let's say, model aeroplane flying club AND his chub fuddling club happened quite coincidentally to be overrun by anti-semites. When the club happens to be the hating the state of Israel club though, nobody can be that stupid and if they can, that degree of stupidity is a moral fault in itself.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662

    Now Jeremy Corbyn could have thought and said that last statement eleven months ago.
    It is so obvious that on election night he's going to try to call a victory and ignore any votes counted after, this is going to be such a mess until the men in straitjackets lead him away , sighs
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998

    Similar story with Georgia. Very slight correlation between Clinton vote share and current turnout.


    The biggest problem with these correlations is the different sizes of the counties.
    Genuine question, is there any kind of uniformity with US counties? I know in sparsely-populated parts of the country they can be very large, but I presume the populations are still a lot more variable than, say, UK constituencies?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    Yes Mitterrand did fancy Thatcher.

    Absolutely bizarre.

    A priapic Frenchman? Unheard of.
    Mitterand’s only qualification for feeling sexual desire was that the target must have a vagina.

    In that respect, he resembled Kennedy.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,603

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    kinabalu said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    This anti-Semitic bullshit is now deeply entwined with much leftist, “progressive” politics

    All power to Starmer if he can purge it in Britain

    https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1321397398002786304?s=21

    Bullshit, antisemitism is on the extremes of the left and right.

    Or did you miss Trump's supporters chanting 'Jews will not replace us' or the background of alleged perpetrator of the Tree of Life synagogue shooting?
    Yawn. I didn’t even mention the right. Straw man.

    However I do believe anti-Semitic discourse is now readily accepted on the mainstream Left in a way it isn’t on the right (tho it was, once). Look at these people attending a Corbyn rally. They clearly think it’s OK to say this stuff into a camera.

    https://twitter.com/socialm85897394/status/1202531867863474176?s=21
    There was a very good interview with Bari Weiss on Sam Harris podcast on the range of antisemitism...the right (Great replacement stuff), the left (the rich Jews control the world), the Islamists (the Jews must be removed from existence).
    I’ve no doubt there is anti-semitism on the right. Still. The difference is that the right, at least, belatedly perceives it as shameful and ugly, so it is all furtive. Whispers. Little asides that make you wonder

    Two generations of anti-Israeli discourse on the left (much of it justified, re the Israeli government) has now morphed into open contempt, dislike, hatred of Jews, and because the Left sees itself as morally beyond reproach, they feel free to express it openly, as so many in their social/political circles agree entirely. Then they are genuinely shocked when others are horrified.

    That’s the problem. That’s the hole Corbyn has fallen into. It is sad.
    I agree that Corbyn has fallen into a sad-shaped hole. But the hole that you have fallen into is rather sad too. Or are you - unlike Jeremy - able to immerse yourself in shit and yet remain pristine? I'll answer my own question this time. No - I don't believe you can.
    Today's not the day for whatboutery. Today is about Corbyn getting the political kicking he richly deserves.
    That fact that SOME of the people issuing the kicks are shameless supporters of other racists should make any right-minded person feel itchy, but today is NOT the day.
    When they get their turn, and they will, there will be no whataboutery allowed either. This needs to play out, because anti-racism is much, much more important than ideology.
    Very true, but Corbyn's ideology is for the birds. No apology forth coming from Corbyn to the poor, malnourished schoolchildren of England who will not get a meal over the Christmas Holidays, for it is Corbyn who personally delivered Boris Johnson his 80 seat majority. A majority he can use exactly as he pleases.
    I get where you're coming from, and I don't really want to get into a left v right argument, because that's not really the point today. But I would say that nobody is making the policy choices of the current government other than the current government. If there's something about the Conservative government you find attractive or objectionable, the fairest place to put the praise or the blame is on the Conservative government.
    My point is Corbyn facilitated Boris Johnson.

    When Corbyn was part of a Labour Party in Government he opposed. It is like he prefers to live under a Conservative Government. Perpetual opposition is his default- but it furnishes not one free school meal.
    Labour councils could be delivering free school meals. How many tens of billions have they been given for the purposes of Covid by central governemnt? What the hell have they been spending the money on that is a higher priority?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    edited October 2020
    JACK_W said:

    North Carolina - UMASS/Lowell - 911 LV - 28/29 Oct

    Biden 48 .. Trump 48

    https://www.uml.edu/Research/public-opinion/polls/2020/NC-Oct.aspx

    Er...

    "As turnout in North Carolina is now above 81% of the total turnout in the 2016 election,1 it’s become clear that early voting has become a major part of the story. Among those who have already voted, Biden has a sizeable lead over Trump, 62% to 36%. Among those who had not voted when the field was conducted, Trump leads 64% to 30%. A clear story of this election is that Biden’s voters are voting and have voted and that the Trump campaign is counting on election day turnout to boost its numbers."

    Just how big does turnout have to be for Trump to claw back that 26% lead Biden appears to have in the votes already cast?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    Stocky said:

    kjh said:

    Stocky said:

    Gillian Anderson as Thatcher is simply superb. The hair. The mannerisms. THE VOICE.

    Gave me the horn.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiXEpminPms

    What a disturbing image.

    You can have my Kleenex CR, I won't be needing them any more.
    I once got a semi watching Princess Fiona in Shrek.

    Anyone match that?
    Far too much information.
    CR started it.
    Lois Griffin in Family Guy.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    geoffw said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:
    Perhaps humour doesn't travel well between countries,
    Was never a problem for Asterix comics.
    There was a lot in the translation rather than the French original which made them appeal so much to eg the UK.
    Now hang on - whilst that is true, the original French Astérix books are absolutely hilarious, some of the funniest things I've ever seen. The translators did a good job in coming up with funny English equivalents rather than literal translations of the jokes.

    More generally, though, French newspaper cartoons are absolutely dire. Almost as bad as Steve Bell but without even the viciousness.
    Well I can't comment on that - I thought (and think) that the Asterix books are fantastic and I suppose, thinking about it, it makes sense that something which is funny when it's translated is funny in the original.

    But to the point made about humour travelling, I would be interested to know whether eg. Vitalstatistix is the same type of humour in the original or whether it's funny in a different way.
    It's the same kind of humour. In the original he's Abraracourcix:

    (à bras raccourcis, literally — "with shortened arms" from the French phrase tomber sur quelqu'un à bras raccourcis – "to attack someone with violence")

    Most of the names are a bit more straightforward than that, eg Assurancetourix ("assurance tous risques" = comprehensive insurance) for the village bard (Cacofonix in the English version)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Asterix_characters
    In the early 70s I used to watch The Magic Roundabout with our small children then continued doing so in France with the original "Le manège enchanté" when we lived in Paris. The scripts were totally different for the same animation. But the English language one was the funnier in my opinion, both for the adults and the children.

    The English are simply funnier than the French. But, they have better weather. The food is more or less equal now.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,805

    Stocky said:

    kjh said:

    Stocky said:

    Gillian Anderson as Thatcher is simply superb. The hair. The mannerisms. THE VOICE.

    Gave me the horn.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiXEpminPms

    What a disturbing image.

    You can have my Kleenex CR, I won't be needing them any more.
    I once got a semi watching Princess Fiona in Shrek.

    Anyone match that?
    Far too much information.
    CR started it.
    Lois Griffin in Family Guy.
    Please stop!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    kinabalu said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    This anti-Semitic bullshit is now deeply entwined with much leftist, “progressive” politics

    All power to Starmer if he can purge it in Britain

    https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1321397398002786304?s=21

    Bullshit, antisemitism is on the extremes of the left and right.

    Or did you miss Trump's supporters chanting 'Jews will not replace us' or the background of alleged perpetrator of the Tree of Life synagogue shooting?
    Yawn. I didn’t even mention the right. Straw man.

    However I do believe anti-Semitic discourse is now readily accepted on the mainstream Left in a way it isn’t on the right (tho it was, once). Look at these people attending a Corbyn rally. They clearly think it’s OK to say this stuff into a camera.

    https://twitter.com/socialm85897394/status/1202531867863474176?s=21
    There was a very good interview with Bari Weiss on Sam Harris podcast on the range of antisemitism...the right (Great replacement stuff), the left (the rich Jews control the world), the Islamists (the Jews must be removed from existence).
    I’ve no doubt there is anti-semitism on the right. Still. The difference is that the right, at least, belatedly perceives it as shameful and ugly, so it is all furtive. Whispers. Little asides that make you wonder

    Two generations of anti-Israeli discourse on the left (much of it justified, re the Israeli government) has now morphed into open contempt, dislike, hatred of Jews, and because the Left sees itself as morally beyond reproach, they feel free to express it openly, as so many in their social/political circles agree entirely. Then they are genuinely shocked when others are horrified.

    That’s the problem. That’s the hole Corbyn has fallen into. It is sad.
    I agree that Corbyn has fallen into a sad-shaped hole. But the hole that you have fallen into is rather sad too. Or are you - unlike Jeremy - able to immerse yourself in shit and yet remain pristine? I'll answer my own question this time. No - I don't believe you can.
    Today's not the day for whatboutery. Today is about Corbyn getting the political kicking he richly deserves.
    That fact that SOME of the people issuing the kicks are shameless supporters of other racists should make any right-minded person feel itchy, but today is NOT the day.
    When they get their turn, and they will, there will be no whataboutery allowed either. This needs to play out, because anti-racism is much, much more important than ideology.
    Well sure. But the exchange was me responding to the charge that I am an antisemite for holding the view that Starmer expelling Corbyn risks internal party strife which could outweigh the political benefit. Found that a bit harsh and not really fair.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    LadyG said:

    geoffw said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:
    Perhaps humour doesn't travel well between countries,
    Was never a problem for Asterix comics.
    There was a lot in the translation rather than the French original which made them appeal so much to eg the UK.
    Now hang on - whilst that is true, the original French Astérix books are absolutely hilarious, some of the funniest things I've ever seen. The translators did a good job in coming up with funny English equivalents rather than literal translations of the jokes.

    More generally, though, French newspaper cartoons are absolutely dire. Almost as bad as Steve Bell but without even the viciousness.
    Well I can't comment on that - I thought (and think) that the Asterix books are fantastic and I suppose, thinking about it, it makes sense that something which is funny when it's translated is funny in the original.

    But to the point made about humour travelling, I would be interested to know whether eg. Vitalstatistix is the same type of humour in the original or whether it's funny in a different way.
    It's the same kind of humour. In the original he's Abraracourcix:

    (à bras raccourcis, literally — "with shortened arms" from the French phrase tomber sur quelqu'un à bras raccourcis – "to attack someone with violence")

    Most of the names are a bit more straightforward than that, eg Assurancetourix ("assurance tous risques" = comprehensive insurance) for the village bard (Cacofonix in the English version)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Asterix_characters
    In the early 70s I used to watch The Magic Roundabout with our small children then continued doing so in France with the original "Le manège enchanté" when we lived in Paris. The scripts were totally different for the same animation. But the English language one was the funnier in my opinion, both for the adults and the children.

    The English are simply funnier than the French. But, they have better weather. The food is more or less equal now.
    "The food is more or less equal now" - are you sure?

    (Then again, we do have bakewell tarts (I know).)

    .
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    kjh said:

    LadyG said:

    kinabalu said:

    LadyG said:

    kinabalu said:

    LadyG said:

    This anti-Semitic bullshit is now deeply entwined with much leftist, “progressive” politics

    All power to Starmer if he can purge it in Britain

    https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1321397398002786304?s=21

    The guy you're retweeting here looks to be a rabid Trumper conspiracy theorist. You probably didn't realize that.

    Unfollow perhaps?
    lol. You always do this with tweets that make you deeply uncomfortable. Who gives a fuck what the tweeter believes. He could be a flat Earther for all I care. The footage is the footage.
    You can "lol" but I nevertheless genuinely wish to understand why you follow people who routinely post hard right filth. I could hazard an answer myself, I suppose, but rather a sterile discourse that would be.
    Lol
    You might well lol but do you not wonder why two of us (albeit mine as a joke) asked the same question?
    Because you’re both idiots?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ok, so apart from Corbyn and MacDonald, here's the other two Labour leaders to have lost the whip.

    https://twitter.com/RobertGCurrie/status/1321858266792660993

    Silly to include Foot 19 years before he was leader.

    Macdonald lost the whip in both 1914 and 1931, both times while leader (remarkably).

    How did he become Leader a second time having already lost the whio while leader once?
    Because until 1922 Labour elected a Chairman, annually, rather than having a Leader per se. So it was done on the basis of Buggins Turn.

    In 1919 when the Labour Party reunited it was informally agreed this would be balanced between a pacifist and a supporter of the war. So Clynes, who served under Lloyd George, led them to the official opposition in 1922 and the following year Macdonald, who had led the pacifist wing, took over and led them to power. After that, it was agreed that annual changes of leadership were a bad idea and Macdonald as a former PM and Foreign Secretary was therefore made leade full time as the most prestigious and visible of their MPs.

    With hindsight they got that the wrong way around. Clynes would not have buggered up as much as Macdonald did in 1931, if only because he wasn’t such a damn snob.
    Buggins' Turn. Isn't that near Dymock?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,425
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Similar story with Georgia. Very slight correlation between Clinton vote share and current turnout.


    The biggest problem with these correlations is the different sizes of the counties.
    Genuine question, is there any kind of uniformity with US counties? I know in sparsely-populated parts of the country they can be very large, but I presume the populations are still a lot more variable than, say, UK constituencies?
    The counties are administrative divisions, rather than electoral ones. Rather than comparing to Westminster constituencies, think of the local authorities that declared individual results for the Brexit referendum. They were all different sizes too for similar historical and local administration reasons.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    Quiet without CHB isn`t it

    He'll be back, I'm sure. No-one gets over the wire and stays free for long.
    PB is like Colditz you mean?
    Yes, exactly. That's how I picture and feel it. I can even hear the dogs sometimes.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,700

    JACK_W said:

    North Carolina - UMASS/Lowell - 911 LV - 28/29 Oct

    Biden 48 .. Trump 48

    https://www.uml.edu/Research/public-opinion/polls/2020/NC-Oct.aspx

    Er...

    "As turnout in North Carolina is now above 81% of the total turnout in the 2016 election,1 it’s become clear that early voting has become a major part of the story. Among those who have already voted, Biden has a sizeable lead over Trump, 62% to 36%. Among those who had not voted when the field was conducted, Trump leads 64% to 30%. A clear story of this election is that Biden’s voters are voting and have voted and that the Trump campaign is counting on election day turnout to boost its numbers."

    Just how big does turnout have to be for Trump to claw back that 26% lead Biden appears to have in the votes already cast?
    I think this methodology might prove to be seriously flawed. You can't treat a subsample as if it were an exit poll.
  • JACK_W said:

    North Carolina - UMASS/Lowell - 911 LV - 28/29 Oct

    Biden 48 .. Trump 48

    https://www.uml.edu/Research/public-opinion/polls/2020/NC-Oct.aspx

    Er...

    "As turnout in North Carolina is now above 81% of the total turnout in the 2016 election,1 it’s become clear that early voting has become a major part of the story. Among those who have already voted, Biden has a sizeable lead over Trump, 62% to 36%. Among those who had not voted when the field was conducted, Trump leads 64% to 30%. A clear story of this election is that Biden’s voters are voting and have voted and that the Trump campaign is counting on election day turnout to boost its numbers."

    Just how big does turnout have to be for Trump to claw back that 26% lead Biden appears to have in the votes already cast?
    Whoa there, Biden doesn't have a 26% lead in the 81% who have already voted, he had a 26% lead in those who said they'd already voted in that poll, fieldwork dates 20-26 October, so a 26% lead in a very much smaller number than the 81%. Still good news for Biden, obviously, but difficult to interpret how good.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    I note that the loading errors are making the site inaccessible again. Please think of us poor iPhone users before posting endless retweets of polling data.

    @HYUFD - I’m looking at you!!

    This page is okay, the earlier page absolutely inaccessible.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Stocky said:

    Gillian Anderson as Thatcher is simply superb. The hair. The mannerisms. THE VOICE.

    Gave me the horn.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiXEpminPms

    What a disturbing image.

    You can have my Kleenex CR, I won't be needing them any more.
    I once got a semi watching Princess Fiona in Shrek.

    Anyone match that?
    My grandma when I was just 8.

    She gave me a plate of gingernuts and it triggered something.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    kinabalu said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    This anti-Semitic bullshit is now deeply entwined with much leftist, “progressive” politics

    All power to Starmer if he can purge it in Britain

    https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1321397398002786304?s=21

    Bullshit, antisemitism is on the extremes of the left and right.

    Or did you miss Trump's supporters chanting 'Jews will not replace us' or the background of alleged perpetrator of the Tree of Life synagogue shooting?
    Yawn. I didn’t even mention the right. Straw man.

    However I do believe anti-Semitic discourse is now readily accepted on the mainstream Left in a way it isn’t on the right (tho it was, once). Look at these people attending a Corbyn rally. They clearly think it’s OK to say this stuff into a camera.

    https://twitter.com/socialm85897394/status/1202531867863474176?s=21
    There was a very good interview with Bari Weiss on Sam Harris podcast on the range of antisemitism...the right (Great replacement stuff), the left (the rich Jews control the world), the Islamists (the Jews must be removed from existence).
    I’ve no doubt there is anti-semitism on the right. Still. The difference is that the right, at least, belatedly perceives it as shameful and ugly, so it is all furtive. Whispers. Little asides that make you wonder

    Two generations of anti-Israeli discourse on the left (much of it justified, re the Israeli government) has now morphed into open contempt, dislike, hatred of Jews, and because the Left sees itself as morally beyond reproach, they feel free to express it openly, as so many in their social/political circles agree entirely. Then they are genuinely shocked when others are horrified.

    That’s the problem. That’s the hole Corbyn has fallen into. It is sad.
    I agree that Corbyn has fallen into a sad-shaped hole. But the hole that you have fallen into is rather sad too. Or are you - unlike Jeremy - able to immerse yourself in shit and yet remain pristine? I'll answer my own question this time. No - I don't believe you can.
    Today's not the day for whatboutery. Today is about Corbyn getting the political kicking he richly deserves.
    That fact that SOME of the people issuing the kicks are shameless supporters of other racists should make any right-minded person feel itchy, but today is NOT the day.
    When they get their turn, and they will, there will be no whataboutery allowed either. This needs to play out, because anti-racism is much, much more important than ideology.
    Very true, but Corbyn's ideology is for the birds. No apology forth coming from Corbyn to the poor, malnourished schoolchildren of England who will not get a meal over the Christmas Holidays, for it is Corbyn who personally delivered Boris Johnson his 80 seat majority. A majority he can use exactly as he pleases.
    I get where you're coming from, and I don't really want to get into a left v right argument, because that's not really the point today. But I would say that nobody is making the policy choices of the current government other than the current government. If there's something about the Conservative government you find attractive or objectionable, the fairest place to put the praise or the blame is on the Conservative government.
    My point is Corbyn facilitated Boris Johnson.

    When Corbyn was part of a Labour Party in Government he opposed. It is like he prefers to live under a Conservative Government. Perpetual opposition is his default- but it furnishes not one free school meal.
    Labour councils could be delivering free school meals. How many tens of billions have they been given for the purposes of Covid by central governemnt? What the hell have they been spending the money on that is a higher priority?
    You are misrepresenting my point. Or are you being deliberately obtuse in support of Corbyn?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ok, so apart from Corbyn and MacDonald, here's the other two Labour leaders to have lost the whip.

    https://twitter.com/RobertGCurrie/status/1321858266792660993

    Silly to include Foot 19 years before he was leader.

    Macdonald lost the whip in both 1914 and 1931, both times while leader (remarkably).

    How did he become Leader a second time having already lost the whio while leader once?
    Because until 1922 Labour elected a Chairman, annually, rather than having a Leader per se. So it was done on the basis of Buggins Turn.

    In 1919 when the Labour Party reunited it was informally agreed this would be balanced between a pacifist and a supporter of the war. So Clynes, who served under Lloyd George, led them to the official opposition in 1922 and the following year Macdonald, who had led the pacifist wing, took over and led them to power. After that, it was agreed that annual changes of leadership were a bad idea and Macdonald as a former PM and Foreign Secretary was therefore made leade full time as the most prestigious and visible of their MPs.

    With hindsight they got that the wrong way around. Clynes would not have buggered up as much as Macdonald did in 1931, if only because he wasn’t such a damn snob.
    Macdonald did actually defeat Clynes for the leadership in November 1922 - by a single vote I believe.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Roger said:

    kinabalu said:

    LadyG said:

    kinabalu said:

    This surprises me, I must admit. There is the benefit of showing that "Under New Leadership" is no empty slogan. Against this is the risk of internal warfare in the party. I would have said the potential damage is greater than the benefit but it looks like Starmer disagrees. Let's see how the Left react.

    He’s a f*cking anti-Semite and you would have ZERO tolerance for a clear and obvious racist in the Tory party. Your true colours are showing.
    My "true colours". Oh dear. C'mon.

    Despite writing countless posts on here that are not - cough - completely free of racist sentiment I have noticed that you tend to become apoplectic about antisemitism on the Left and in the Labour Party.

    Why is this? I bet you can't explain it to my satisfaction.
    Interestingly there is a poll of American Jews which goes 75-22 for Biden. One of findings is that they're less impressed by Trumps moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem and being the 'most pro Israeli President in US history' than they are by his support for white supremicists at home. This is something little understood by the many Faragist/Johnsonites shouting anti-semite at Corbyn who post here.

    https://eu.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/2020/10/21/poll-biden-has-massive-lead-over-trump-among-jewish-voters-florida/3716023001/
    That's good to hear. Trump's attempted appeal to Jews is as crass and disrespectful as his pitch to women and Blacks.
    True. Trump gave blacks jobs in record high numbers.

    Fascist.
    This is a rather unfortunate post.

    (i) Donald Trump inherited a strong economy and proceeded to fire it up further with a big tax cut funded on the never never. Jobs were created and employment (including amongst black people) duly went up until Covid spoilt the party.

    (ii) "Trump gave blacks jobs in record high numbers."

    What sort of mind expresses the truth of (ii) as the dumb racist propaganda of (i)?

    Is it a dumb racist one?
    I'm enjoying your posts but please don't head down the "economics" road. We know it isn't your best subject and I would like to see you stay focused on your strengths.
    True enough. It's not my BEST topic. My economics is like Picasso's etchings.
    Oh god - modern art! Out of the frying pan into the frying pan!

    What's your view on his etchings vs other of his work?
    Still modern? I guess. Just about. But, yes, his etchings are minor masterpieces. That's exactly it.

    And speaking of minor masterpieces, enjoy -

    https://www.brainyquote.com/authors/barry-gardiner-quotes
  • JACK_W said:

    North Carolina - UMASS/Lowell - 911 LV - 28/29 Oct

    Biden 48 .. Trump 48

    https://www.uml.edu/Research/public-opinion/polls/2020/NC-Oct.aspx

    Er...

    "As turnout in North Carolina is now above 81% of the total turnout in the 2016 election,1 it’s become clear that early voting has become a major part of the story. Among those who have already voted, Biden has a sizeable lead over Trump, 62% to 36%. Among those who had not voted when the field was conducted, Trump leads 64% to 30%. A clear story of this election is that Biden’s voters are voting and have voted and that the Trump campaign is counting on election day turnout to boost its numbers."

    Just how big does turnout have to be for Trump to claw back that 26% lead Biden appears to have in the votes already cast?
    Assuming those numbers are right (a big assumption I know) then he already has a majority if the turnout stays the same.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    I note that the loading errors are making the site inaccessible again. Please think of us poor iPhone users before posting endless retweets of polling data.

    @HYUFD - I’m looking at you!!

    This page is okay, the earlier page absolutely inaccessible.

    I think it’s the red and green tables that slow everything down.
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Similar story with Georgia. Very slight correlation between Clinton vote share and current turnout.


    The biggest problem with these correlations is the different sizes of the counties.
    Genuine question, is there any kind of uniformity with US counties? I know in sparsely-populated parts of the country they can be very large, but I presume the populations are still a lot more variable than, say, UK constituencies?
    The counties are administrative divisions, rather than electoral ones. Rather than comparing to Westminster constituencies, think of the local authorities that declared individual results for the Brexit referendum. They were all different sizes too for similar historical and local administration reasons.
    Sure, I get that, I was just wondering how uneven they are. No problem, I'll just assume very uneven and take your implied advice to ignore that kind of chart. Cheers.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ok, so apart from Corbyn and MacDonald, here's the other two Labour leaders to have lost the whip.

    https://twitter.com/RobertGCurrie/status/1321858266792660993

    Silly to include Foot 19 years before he was leader.

    Macdonald lost the whip in both 1914 and 1931, both times while leader (remarkably).

    How did he become Leader a second time having already lost the whio while leader once?
    Because until 1922 Labour elected a Chairman, annually, rather than having a Leader per se. So it was done on the basis of Buggins Turn.

    In 1919 when the Labour Party reunited it was informally agreed this would be balanced between a pacifist and a supporter of the war. So Clynes, who served under Lloyd George, led them to the official opposition in 1922 and the following year Macdonald, who had led the pacifist wing, took over and led them to power. After that, it was agreed that annual changes of leadership were a bad idea and Macdonald as a former PM and Foreign Secretary was therefore made leade full time as the most prestigious and visible of their MPs.

    With hindsight they got that the wrong way around. Clynes would not have buggered up as much as Macdonald did in 1931, if only because he wasn’t such a damn snob.
    Buggins' Turn. Isn't that near Dymock?
    If you’re referring to that vicious 90 degree right hander in the dip just before the Ledbury road diverges, a friend of mine lived in that house for a while. He moved out because he couldn’t afford the repairs to his wall.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Stocky said:

    Gillian Anderson as Thatcher is simply superb. The hair. The mannerisms. THE VOICE.

    Gave me the horn.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiXEpminPms

    What a disturbing image.

    You can have my Kleenex CR, I won't be needing them any more.
    I once got a semi watching Princess Fiona in Shrek.

    Anyone match that?
    As a sapphic newt painter, I’ll have a go. I was mildly aroused by the Rapunzel character in Disney’s Tangled, perhaps because she is innocently yet inexplicably barefoot throughout the whole movie
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    Gillian Anderson as Thatcher is simply superb. The hair. The mannerisms. THE VOICE.

    Gave me the horn.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiXEpminPms

    What a disturbing image.

    You can have my Kleenex CR, I won't be needing them any more.
    I once got a semi watching Princess Fiona in Shrek.

    Anyone match that?
    My grandma when I was just 8.

    She gave me a plate of gingernuts and it triggered something.
    A lifelong love of gingernuts I hope.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    This is providing hours of endless entertainment....

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1321871414069264389?s=20
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    You can STILL get 2/1 on Jon Ossoff to take the Georgia Senate seat with Betfair. Given the latest polling and momentum I consider this to be exceptional value and I've just topped up.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    LadyG said:

    Stocky said:

    Gillian Anderson as Thatcher is simply superb. The hair. The mannerisms. THE VOICE.

    Gave me the horn.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiXEpminPms

    What a disturbing image.

    You can have my Kleenex CR, I won't be needing them any more.
    I once got a semi watching Princess Fiona in Shrek.

    Anyone match that?
    As a sapphic newt painter, I’ll have a go. I was mildly aroused by the Rapunzel character in Disney’s Tangled, perhaps because she is innocently yet inexplicably barefoot throughout the whole movie
    Ooh yes, I see that.

    Is "newt painter" a euphemism for something?
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998
    kinabalu said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    kinabalu said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    This anti-Semitic bullshit is now deeply entwined with much leftist, “progressive” politics

    All power to Starmer if he can purge it in Britain

    https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1321397398002786304?s=21

    Bullshit, antisemitism is on the extremes of the left and right.

    Or did you miss Trump's supporters chanting 'Jews will not replace us' or the background of alleged perpetrator of the Tree of Life synagogue shooting?
    Yawn. I didn’t even mention the right. Straw man.

    However I do believe anti-Semitic discourse is now readily accepted on the mainstream Left in a way it isn’t on the right (tho it was, once). Look at these people attending a Corbyn rally. They clearly think it’s OK to say this stuff into a camera.

    https://twitter.com/socialm85897394/status/1202531867863474176?s=21
    There was a very good interview with Bari Weiss on Sam Harris podcast on the range of antisemitism...the right (Great replacement stuff), the left (the rich Jews control the world), the Islamists (the Jews must be removed from existence).
    I’ve no doubt there is anti-semitism on the right. Still. The difference is that the right, at least, belatedly perceives it as shameful and ugly, so it is all furtive. Whispers. Little asides that make you wonder

    Two generations of anti-Israeli discourse on the left (much of it justified, re the Israeli government) has now morphed into open contempt, dislike, hatred of Jews, and because the Left sees itself as morally beyond reproach, they feel free to express it openly, as so many in their social/political circles agree entirely. Then they are genuinely shocked when others are horrified.

    That’s the problem. That’s the hole Corbyn has fallen into. It is sad.
    I agree that Corbyn has fallen into a sad-shaped hole. But the hole that you have fallen into is rather sad too. Or are you - unlike Jeremy - able to immerse yourself in shit and yet remain pristine? I'll answer my own question this time. No - I don't believe you can.
    Today's not the day for whatboutery. Today is about Corbyn getting the political kicking he richly deserves.
    That fact that SOME of the people issuing the kicks are shameless supporters of other racists should make any right-minded person feel itchy, but today is NOT the day.
    When they get their turn, and they will, there will be no whataboutery allowed either. This needs to play out, because anti-racism is much, much more important than ideology.
    Well sure. But the exchange was me responding to the charge that I am an antisemite for holding the view that Starmer expelling Corbyn risks internal party strife which could outweigh the political benefit. Found that a bit harsh and not really fair.
    Actually, forget what I said. Anyone posting something like "The English are simply funnier than the French" after so righteously railing against racism is clearly either trolling or a few parrots short of an aviary.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Stocky said:

    LadyG said:

    Stocky said:

    Gillian Anderson as Thatcher is simply superb. The hair. The mannerisms. THE VOICE.

    Gave me the horn.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiXEpminPms

    What a disturbing image.

    You can have my Kleenex CR, I won't be needing them any more.
    I once got a semi watching Princess Fiona in Shrek.

    Anyone match that?
    As a sapphic newt painter, I’ll have a go. I was mildly aroused by the Rapunzel character in Disney’s Tangled, perhaps because she is innocently yet inexplicably barefoot throughout the whole movie
    Ooh yes, I see that.

    Is "newt painter" a euphemism for something?
    Frankly, you’d have to ask the newt
  • LadyG said:

    Stocky said:

    Gillian Anderson as Thatcher is simply superb. The hair. The mannerisms. THE VOICE.

    Gave me the horn.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiXEpminPms

    What a disturbing image.

    You can have my Kleenex CR, I won't be needing them any more.
    I once got a semi watching Princess Fiona in Shrek.

    Anyone match that?
    As a sapphic newt painter, I’ll have a go. I was mildly aroused by the Rapunzel character in Disney’s Tangled, perhaps because she is innocently yet inexplicably barefoot throughout the whole movie
    LadyG said:

    Stocky said:

    Gillian Anderson as Thatcher is simply superb. The hair. The mannerisms. THE VOICE.

    Gave me the horn.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiXEpminPms

    What a disturbing image.

    You can have my Kleenex CR, I won't be needing them any more.
    I once got a semi watching Princess Fiona in Shrek.

    Anyone match that?
    As a sapphic newt painter, I’ll have a go. I was mildly aroused by the Rapunzel character in Disney’s Tangled, perhaps because she is innocently yet inexplicably barefoot throughout the whole movie
    How do you know which newts are sapphic?

    You would be better of with cows: they all are.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Roger said:

    kinabalu said:

    LadyG said:

    kinabalu said:

    This surprises me, I must admit. There is the benefit of showing that "Under New Leadership" is no empty slogan. Against this is the risk of internal warfare in the party. I would have said the potential damage is greater than the benefit but it looks like Starmer disagrees. Let's see how the Left react.

    He’s a f*cking anti-Semite and you would have ZERO tolerance for a clear and obvious racist in the Tory party. Your true colours are showing.
    My "true colours". Oh dear. C'mon.

    Despite writing countless posts on here that are not - cough - completely free of racist sentiment I have noticed that you tend to become apoplectic about antisemitism on the Left and in the Labour Party.

    Why is this? I bet you can't explain it to my satisfaction.
    Interestingly there is a poll of American Jews which goes 75-22 for Biden. One of findings is that they're less impressed by Trumps moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem and being the 'most pro Israeli President in US history' than they are by his support for white supremicists at home. This is something little understood by the many Faragist/Johnsonites shouting anti-semite at Corbyn who post here.

    https://eu.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/2020/10/21/poll-biden-has-massive-lead-over-trump-among-jewish-voters-florida/3716023001/
    That's good to hear. Trump's attempted appeal to Jews is as crass and disrespectful as his pitch to women and Blacks.
    True. Trump gave blacks jobs in record high numbers.

    Fascist.
    This is a rather unfortunate post.

    (i) Donald Trump inherited a strong economy and proceeded to fire it up further with a big tax cut funded on the never never. Jobs were created and employment (including amongst black people) duly went up until Covid spoilt the party.

    (ii) "Trump gave blacks jobs in record high numbers."

    What sort of mind expresses the truth of (ii) as the dumb racist propaganda of (i)?

    Is it a dumb racist one?
    I'm enjoying your posts but please don't head down the "economics" road. We know it isn't your best subject and I would like to see you stay focused on your strengths.
    True enough. It's not my BEST topic. My economics is like Picasso's etchings.
    Oh god - modern art! Out of the frying pan into the frying pan!

    What's your view on his etchings vs other of his work?
    Still modern? I guess. Just about. But, yes, his etchings are minor masterpieces. That's exactly it.

    And speaking of minor masterpieces, enjoy -

    https://www.brainyquote.com/authors/barry-gardiner-quotes
    Modern art started with Cezanne and arguably Courbet but of course that's all a foreign language to you.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,805
    LadyG said:

    kjh said:

    LadyG said:

    kinabalu said:

    LadyG said:

    kinabalu said:

    LadyG said:

    This anti-Semitic bullshit is now deeply entwined with much leftist, “progressive” politics

    All power to Starmer if he can purge it in Britain

    https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1321397398002786304?s=21

    The guy you're retweeting here looks to be a rabid Trumper conspiracy theorist. You probably didn't realize that.

    Unfollow perhaps?
    lol. You always do this with tweets that make you deeply uncomfortable. Who gives a fuck what the tweeter believes. He could be a flat Earther for all I care. The footage is the footage.
    You can "lol" but I nevertheless genuinely wish to understand why you follow people who routinely post hard right filth. I could hazard an answer myself, I suppose, but rather a sterile discourse that would be.
    Lol
    You might well lol but do you not wonder why two of us (albeit mine as a joke) asked the same question?
    Because you’re both idiots?
    And there was I giving you the benefit of the doubt of what twitter feeds you follow.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    JACK_W said:

    North Carolina - UMASS/Lowell - 911 LV - 28/29 Oct

    Biden 48 .. Trump 48

    https://www.uml.edu/Research/public-opinion/polls/2020/NC-Oct.aspx

    Er...

    "As turnout in North Carolina is now above 81% of the total turnout in the 2016 election, it’s become clear that early voting has become a major part of the story. Among those who have already voted, Biden has a sizeable lead over Trump, 62% to 36%. Among those who had not voted when the field was conducted, Trump leads 64% to 30%. A clear story of this election is that Biden’s voters are voting and have voted and that the Trump campaign is counting on election day turnout to boost its numbers."

    Just how big does turnout have to be for Trump to claw back that 26% lead Biden appears to have in the votes already cast?
    Whoa there, Biden doesn't have a 26% lead in the 81% who have already voted, he had a 26% lead in those who said they'd already voted in that poll, fieldwork dates 20-26 October, so a 26% lead in a very much smaller number than the 81%. Still good news for Biden, obviously, but difficult to interpret how good.
    Um sort of fair point. But assuming we trust the poll to be a reasonably fair sample and the respondents to have answered reasonably truthfully, your point only has weight if we believe the earliest early voters vote significantly differently from the later early voters. Not sure why that might be the case.

    Btw, comparing the current NC voter registration figures with early voters shows 2020 turnout is already 52.6%.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Similar story with Georgia. Very slight correlation between Clinton vote share and current turnout.


    The biggest problem with these correlations is the different sizes of the counties.
    Genuine question, is there any kind of uniformity with US counties? I know in sparsely-populated parts of the country they can be very large, but I presume the populations are still a lot more variable than, say, UK constituencies?
    The counties are administrative divisions, rather than electoral ones. Rather than comparing to Westminster constituencies, think of the local authorities that declared individual results for the Brexit referendum. They were all different sizes too for similar historical and local administration reasons.
    Sure, I get that, I was just wondering how uneven they are. No problem, I'll just assume very uneven and take your implied advice to ignore that kind of chart. Cheers.
    Yes they can be very, very uneven indeed. Americans are very conservative about local government boundaries: change does not happen very often. The vast majority of the current county (and equivalent) boundaries across all the states were largely set by the end of the 19th century. I should be surprised if there's been more than a dozen or two new counties created or old ones merged over the last century. Probably the single biggest change since WW2 is that a few New England states have abolished the actual county government of all (CT and RI) or some (MA) of their counties, and even those counties remain on paper for things like judicial records.
  • JACK_W said:

    North Carolina - UMASS/Lowell - 911 LV - 28/29 Oct

    Biden 48 .. Trump 48

    https://www.uml.edu/Research/public-opinion/polls/2020/NC-Oct.aspx

    Er...

    "As turnout in North Carolina is now above 81% of the total turnout in the 2016 election, it’s become clear that early voting has become a major part of the story. Among those who have already voted, Biden has a sizeable lead over Trump, 62% to 36%. Among those who had not voted when the field was conducted, Trump leads 64% to 30%. A clear story of this election is that Biden’s voters are voting and have voted and that the Trump campaign is counting on election day turnout to boost its numbers."

    Just how big does turnout have to be for Trump to claw back that 26% lead Biden appears to have in the votes already cast?
    Whoa there, Biden doesn't have a 26% lead in the 81% who have already voted, he had a 26% lead in those who said they'd already voted in that poll, fieldwork dates 20-26 October, so a 26% lead in a very much smaller number than the 81%. Still good news for Biden, obviously, but difficult to interpret how good.
    Um sort of fair point. But assuming we trust the poll to be a reasonably fair sample and the respondents to have answered reasonably truthfully, your point only has weight if we believe the earliest early voters vote significantly differently from the later early voters. Not sure why that might be the case.

    Btw, comparing the current NC voter registration figures with early voters shows 2020 turnout is already 52.6%.
    I think it's very likely that the earliest voters were disproportionately Biden voters. The trend all along has been that way, with Trump voters voting later, even if they vote by mail or by in-person early voting.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    This is providing hours of endless entertainment....

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1321871414069264389?s=20

    Not sure how being the Hulk would upset Starmer.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,603

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    kinabalu said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    This anti-Semitic bullshit is now deeply entwined with much leftist, “progressive” politics

    All power to Starmer if he can purge it in Britain

    https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1321397398002786304?s=21

    Bullshit, antisemitism is on the extremes of the left and right.

    Or did you miss Trump's supporters chanting 'Jews will not replace us' or the background of alleged perpetrator of the Tree of Life synagogue shooting?
    Yawn. I didn’t even mention the right. Straw man.

    However I do believe anti-Semitic discourse is now readily accepted on the mainstream Left in a way it isn’t on the right (tho it was, once). Look at these people attending a Corbyn rally. They clearly think it’s OK to say this stuff into a camera.

    https://twitter.com/socialm85897394/status/1202531867863474176?s=21
    There was a very good interview with Bari Weiss on Sam Harris podcast on the range of antisemitism...the right (Great replacement stuff), the left (the rich Jews control the world), the Islamists (the Jews must be removed from existence).
    I’ve no doubt there is anti-semitism on the right. Still. The difference is that the right, at least, belatedly perceives it as shameful and ugly, so it is all furtive. Whispers. Little asides that make you wonder

    Two generations of anti-Israeli discourse on the left (much of it justified, re the Israeli government) has now morphed into open contempt, dislike, hatred of Jews, and because the Left sees itself as morally beyond reproach, they feel free to express it openly, as so many in their social/political circles agree entirely. Then they are genuinely shocked when others are horrified.

    That’s the problem. That’s the hole Corbyn has fallen into. It is sad.
    I agree that Corbyn has fallen into a sad-shaped hole. But the hole that you have fallen into is rather sad too. Or are you - unlike Jeremy - able to immerse yourself in shit and yet remain pristine? I'll answer my own question this time. No - I don't believe you can.
    Today's not the day for whatboutery. Today is about Corbyn getting the political kicking he richly deserves.
    That fact that SOME of the people issuing the kicks are shameless supporters of other racists should make any right-minded person feel itchy, but today is NOT the day.
    When they get their turn, and they will, there will be no whataboutery allowed either. This needs to play out, because anti-racism is much, much more important than ideology.
    Very true, but Corbyn's ideology is for the birds. No apology forth coming from Corbyn to the poor, malnourished schoolchildren of England who will not get a meal over the Christmas Holidays, for it is Corbyn who personally delivered Boris Johnson his 80 seat majority. A majority he can use exactly as he pleases.
    I get where you're coming from, and I don't really want to get into a left v right argument, because that's not really the point today. But I would say that nobody is making the policy choices of the current government other than the current government. If there's something about the Conservative government you find attractive or objectionable, the fairest place to put the praise or the blame is on the Conservative government.
    My point is Corbyn facilitated Boris Johnson.

    When Corbyn was part of a Labour Party in Government he opposed. It is like he prefers to live under a Conservative Government. Perpetual opposition is his default- but it furnishes not one free school meal.
    Labour councils could be delivering free school meals. How many tens of billions have they been given for the purposes of Covid by central governemnt? What the hell have they been spending the money on that is a higher priority?
    You are misrepresenting my point. Or are you being deliberately obtuse in support of Corbyn?
    "in support of Corbyn" - there's a first!!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    And that's the problem. No, Jezza isn't a Nazi. I'm confident that, if you placed him in a Good Samaritan scenario, he would stop and help the injured man, no matter how Jewish he was. He's just too dim to realise that many of the allies he has collected over the years are actively antisemitic, and too arrogant to step back when this is pointed out to him.

    The kindest way to see Jez is as a kind of holy fool. For his many fans, the holy excused the foolishness. They were wrong.
    That's very good.
    It's very bad indeed. It might just about be the case if he was the unluckiest, stupidest and least observant man in the world and his, let's say, model aeroplane flying club AND his chub fuddling club happened quite coincidentally to be overrun by anti-semites. When the club happens to be the hating the state of Israel club though, nobody can be that stupid and if they can, that degree of stupidity is a moral fault in itself.
    I meant the take on his condition was good - i.e. plausible and well expressed - not the condition itself. I'm genuinely not sure to what extent he is prejudiced against Jews. If I was sure, regardless of anything else, I'd say so.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Roger said:

    kinabalu said:

    LadyG said:

    kinabalu said:

    This surprises me, I must admit. There is the benefit of showing that "Under New Leadership" is no empty slogan. Against this is the risk of internal warfare in the party. I would have said the potential damage is greater than the benefit but it looks like Starmer disagrees. Let's see how the Left react.

    He’s a f*cking anti-Semite and you would have ZERO tolerance for a clear and obvious racist in the Tory party. Your true colours are showing.
    My "true colours". Oh dear. C'mon.

    Despite writing countless posts on here that are not - cough - completely free of racist sentiment I have noticed that you tend to become apoplectic about antisemitism on the Left and in the Labour Party.

    Why is this? I bet you can't explain it to my satisfaction.
    Interestingly there is a poll of American Jews which goes 75-22 for Biden. One of findings is that they're less impressed by Trumps moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem and being the 'most pro Israeli President in US history' than they are by his support for white supremicists at home. This is something little understood by the many Faragist/Johnsonites shouting anti-semite at Corbyn who post here.

    https://eu.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/2020/10/21/poll-biden-has-massive-lead-over-trump-among-jewish-voters-florida/3716023001/
    That's good to hear. Trump's attempted appeal to Jews is as crass and disrespectful as his pitch to women and Blacks.
    True. Trump gave blacks jobs in record high numbers.

    Fascist.
    This is a rather unfortunate post.

    (i) Donald Trump inherited a strong economy and proceeded to fire it up further with a big tax cut funded on the never never. Jobs were created and employment (including amongst black people) duly went up until Covid spoilt the party.

    (ii) "Trump gave blacks jobs in record high numbers."

    What sort of mind expresses the truth of (ii) as the dumb racist propaganda of (i)?

    Is it a dumb racist one?
    I'm enjoying your posts but please don't head down the "economics" road. We know it isn't your best subject and I would like to see you stay focused on your strengths.
    True enough. It's not my BEST topic. My economics is like Picasso's etchings.
    Oh god - modern art! Out of the frying pan into the frying pan!

    What's your view on his etchings vs other of his work?
    Still modern? I guess. Just about. But, yes, his etchings are minor masterpieces. That's exactly it.

    And speaking of minor masterpieces, enjoy -

    https://www.brainyquote.com/authors/barry-gardiner-quotes
    Modern art started with Cezanne and arguably Courbet but of course that's all a foreign language to you.
    No. The isenheim altarpiece. A magnificent work of expressionism. 16th century.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isenheim_Altarpiece



  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Later earlier voters are absolutely more Republican than the earliest early voter in NC.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    edited October 2020
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Similar story with Georgia. Very slight correlation between Clinton vote share and current turnout.


    The biggest problem with these correlations is the different sizes of the counties.
    Genuine question, is there any kind of uniformity with US counties? I know in sparsely-populated parts of the country they can be very large, but I presume the populations are still a lot more variable than, say, UK constituencies?
    To give you an idea, in Georgia the number of registered voters varies from 789,687 (Fulton County, Atlanta), to 1,217 (Taliaferro County).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    Gillian Anderson as Thatcher is simply superb. The hair. The mannerisms. THE VOICE.

    Gave me the horn.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiXEpminPms

    What a disturbing image.

    You can have my Kleenex CR, I won't be needing them any more.
    I once got a semi watching Princess Fiona in Shrek.

    Anyone match that?
    My grandma when I was just 8.

    She gave me a plate of gingernuts and it triggered something.
    A lifelong love of gingernuts I hope.
    Absolutely. To this day I find it very hard to say no to one.
  • LadyG said:



    No. The isenheim altarpiece. A magnificent work of expressionism. 16th century.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isenheim_Altarpiece

    We can all play that game.




  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129
    edited October 2020
    Roger said:

    Lisa Nandy excellent on BBC 5 o'clock news. A word perfect response. I haven't really rated her before but she's very good

    Well, despite how hard Corbyn made it look, it really is not that hard to address these issues.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Fuck. We are heading into the darkest of tunnels.

    Pb and its denizens can be variously irritating, boring or mad (including me) but we are all human and we are all facing something nearly incomprehensible in its scale and horror. A once in a century disaster.

    May God save us all. Or as many as He can manage.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129
    edited October 2020

    This is providing hours of endless entertainment....

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1321871414069264389?s=20

    Alternatively, Corbyn vs the Public, and Starmer vs the Public.

    One full of misdirected, mindless rage at the world, the other retaining strength whilst using their mind.
  • kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    Gillian Anderson as Thatcher is simply superb. The hair. The mannerisms. THE VOICE.

    Gave me the horn.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiXEpminPms

    What a disturbing image.

    You can have my Kleenex CR, I won't be needing them any more.
    I once got a semi watching Princess Fiona in Shrek.

    Anyone match that?
    My grandma when I was just 8.

    She gave me a plate of gingernuts and it triggered something.
    A lifelong love of gingernuts I hope.
    Absolutely. To this day I find it very hard to say no to one.
    With a visible expression of anticipation presumably?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Roger said:

    kinabalu said:

    LadyG said:

    kinabalu said:

    This surprises me, I must admit. There is the benefit of showing that "Under New Leadership" is no empty slogan. Against this is the risk of internal warfare in the party. I would have said the potential damage is greater than the benefit but it looks like Starmer disagrees. Let's see how the Left react.

    He’s a f*cking anti-Semite and you would have ZERO tolerance for a clear and obvious racist in the Tory party. Your true colours are showing.
    My "true colours". Oh dear. C'mon.

    Despite writing countless posts on here that are not - cough - completely free of racist sentiment I have noticed that you tend to become apoplectic about antisemitism on the Left and in the Labour Party.

    Why is this? I bet you can't explain it to my satisfaction.
    Interestingly there is a poll of American Jews which goes 75-22 for Biden. One of findings is that they're less impressed by Trumps moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem and being the 'most pro Israeli President in US history' than they are by his support for white supremicists at home. This is something little understood by the many Faragist/Johnsonites shouting anti-semite at Corbyn who post here.

    https://eu.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/2020/10/21/poll-biden-has-massive-lead-over-trump-among-jewish-voters-florida/3716023001/
    That's good to hear. Trump's attempted appeal to Jews is as crass and disrespectful as his pitch to women and Blacks.
    True. Trump gave blacks jobs in record high numbers.

    Fascist.
    This is a rather unfortunate post.

    (i) Donald Trump inherited a strong economy and proceeded to fire it up further with a big tax cut funded on the never never. Jobs were created and employment (including amongst black people) duly went up until Covid spoilt the party.

    (ii) "Trump gave blacks jobs in record high numbers."

    What sort of mind expresses the truth of (ii) as the dumb racist propaganda of (i)?

    Is it a dumb racist one?
    I'm enjoying your posts but please don't head down the "economics" road. We know it isn't your best subject and I would like to see you stay focused on your strengths.
    True enough. It's not my BEST topic. My economics is like Picasso's etchings.
    Oh god - modern art! Out of the frying pan into the frying pan!

    What's your view on his etchings vs other of his work?
    Still modern? I guess. Just about. But, yes, his etchings are minor masterpieces. That's exactly it.

    And speaking of minor masterpieces, enjoy -

    https://www.brainyquote.com/authors/barry-gardiner-quotes
    Modern art started with Cezanne and arguably Courbet but of course that's all a foreign language to you.
    No, I know all those guys. All great. But time moves on. I'd say they are becoming just that little bit "of the past" now. Like you and me. Well, definitely me.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    Jonathan said:

    This is providing hours of endless entertainment....

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1321871414069264389?s=20

    Not sure how being the Hulk would upset Starmer.
    The Hulk=Richard Burgon?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    LadyG said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Roger said:

    kinabalu said:

    LadyG said:

    kinabalu said:

    This surprises me, I must admit. There is the benefit of showing that "Under New Leadership" is no empty slogan. Against this is the risk of internal warfare in the party. I would have said the potential damage is greater than the benefit but it looks like Starmer disagrees. Let's see how the Left react.

    He’s a f*cking anti-Semite and you would have ZERO tolerance for a clear and obvious racist in the Tory party. Your true colours are showing.
    My "true colours". Oh dear. C'mon.

    Despite writing countless posts on here that are not - cough - completely free of racist sentiment I have noticed that you tend to become apoplectic about antisemitism on the Left and in the Labour Party.

    Why is this? I bet you can't explain it to my satisfaction.
    Interestingly there is a poll of American Jews which goes 75-22 for Biden. One of findings is that they're less impressed by Trumps moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem and being the 'most pro Israeli President in US history' than they are by his support for white supremicists at home. This is something little understood by the many Faragist/Johnsonites shouting anti-semite at Corbyn who post here.

    https://eu.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/2020/10/21/poll-biden-has-massive-lead-over-trump-among-jewish-voters-florida/3716023001/
    That's good to hear. Trump's attempted appeal to Jews is as crass and disrespectful as his pitch to women and Blacks.
    True. Trump gave blacks jobs in record high numbers.

    Fascist.
    This is a rather unfortunate post.

    (i) Donald Trump inherited a strong economy and proceeded to fire it up further with a big tax cut funded on the never never. Jobs were created and employment (including amongst black people) duly went up until Covid spoilt the party.

    (ii) "Trump gave blacks jobs in record high numbers."

    What sort of mind expresses the truth of (ii) as the dumb racist propaganda of (i)?

    Is it a dumb racist one?
    I'm enjoying your posts but please don't head down the "economics" road. We know it isn't your best subject and I would like to see you stay focused on your strengths.
    True enough. It's not my BEST topic. My economics is like Picasso's etchings.
    Oh god - modern art! Out of the frying pan into the frying pan!

    What's your view on his etchings vs other of his work?
    Still modern? I guess. Just about. But, yes, his etchings are minor masterpieces. That's exactly it.

    And speaking of minor masterpieces, enjoy -

    https://www.brainyquote.com/authors/barry-gardiner-quotes
    Modern art started with Cezanne and arguably Courbet but of course that's all a foreign language to you.
    No. The isenheim altarpiece. A magnificent work of expressionism. 16th century.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isenheim_Altarpiece
    Happy to have that discussion. Certainly influences range widely from Africa to of course Japan for Picasso.

    But for the purposes of academic study we identify it as "beginning" in the latter half of the nineteenth century.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    kle4 said:

    LadyG said:

    PB HISTORIANS: has any other major party in Britain suspended its immediately previous leader? I can’t think of an example. Any abroad in other democracies?

    UKIP?
    A thread on their leadership woes would be worth a good laugh, even though they are not major anymore.
    I was once quoted on Oddschecker in the "Next UKIP leader" market
    You were in the running ?
    No, it was Shadsy mucking about. I was in the running as a candidate in 2015 vs Emily Thornberry in Islington South

    EDIT But I decided not to bother
    Gosh, I did not know that. The real thing then.

    I will cease with the "West Ham" harassment forthwith.
    Ha no I'm not from Islington, I support The Arsenal because my Grandad, who was from Islington, did.
  • JACK_W said:

    North Carolina - UMASS/Lowell - 911 LV - 28/29 Oct

    Biden 48 .. Trump 48

    https://www.uml.edu/Research/public-opinion/polls/2020/NC-Oct.aspx

    Er...

    "As turnout in North Carolina is now above 81% of the total turnout in the 2016 election,1 it’s become clear that early voting has become a major part of the story. Among those who have already voted, Biden has a sizeable lead over Trump, 62% to 36%. Among those who had not voted when the field was conducted, Trump leads 64% to 30%. A clear story of this election is that Biden’s voters are voting and have voted and that the Trump campaign is counting on election day turnout to boost its numbers."

    Just how big does turnout have to be for Trump to claw back that 26% lead Biden appears to have in the votes already cast?
    62% of 81% gives almost exactly 50% of ballots cast.

    So either Biden does not now lead by 26%, Trump must win 100% of on the day voting, or he needs 75% + on an increased turnout.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129
    LadyG said:

    Fuck. We are heading into the darkest of tunnels.

    Pb and its denizens can be variously irritating, boring or mad (including me) but we are all human and we are all facing something nearly incomprehensible in its scale and horror. A once in a century disaster.

    May God save us all. Or as many as He can manage.
    Irritating, boring or mad I thought was the strapline of the new PB site.

    But it is going to be a dark, dark winter. Being of good cheer is going to be more of a challenge this year.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    LadyG said:



    No. The isenheim altarpiece. A magnificent work of expressionism. 16th century.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isenheim_Altarpiece

    We can all play that game.




    Believe it or not I was going to make the exact same reference (I just thought it would blunt the point). The finest cave art is as good as, and often strangely similar to, the purest Matisse or Picasso. Your example absolutely proves that.

    Interestingly cave art doesn’t get “better” - ie more representative. Chauvet, the earliest great example, has some of the “best”. It is 30,000 years old.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chauvet_Cave
  • Lol suddenly Farage isn't going on about the war enough.
  • Alistair said:

    Later earlier voters are absolutely more Republican than the earliest early voter in NC.

    This hurt my brain, I am off to make some tea to try and recover.
  • Lock them up.

    Thirteen unnamed Barbarians players have been charged by the Rugby Football Union after Sunday's game against England was cancelled because of coronavirus protocol breaches.

    Players face a range of charges including "individual breaches of the protocols" and "providing false statements during an investigation", the RFU said.

    English rugby's governing body said it would publish players' names after the hearings because of the public scrutiny they faced.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/54732478
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594
    "Clash of cultures in France between freedom of expression and Islamic blasphemy beliefs

    A plan by President Macron aimed at reforming the practice of Islam in France has led to calls for a boycott of French products.

    By Deborah Haynes, foreign affairs editor"

    https://news.sky.com/story/clash-of-cultures-in-france-between-freedom-of-expression-and-islamic-blasphemy-beliefs-12117824
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    Gillian Anderson as Thatcher is simply superb. The hair. The mannerisms. THE VOICE.

    Gave me the horn.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiXEpminPms

    What a disturbing image.

    You can have my Kleenex CR, I won't be needing them any more.
    I once got a semi watching Princess Fiona in Shrek.

    Anyone match that?
    My grandma when I was just 8.

    She gave me a plate of gingernuts and it triggered something.
    A lifelong love of gingernuts I hope.
    Absolutely. To this day I find it very hard to say no to one.
    So you voted for Rayner? :smile:
  • Lol suddenly Farage isn't going on about the war enough.
    Do you think Trump is the most resilient and brave person Farage has ever met?
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    edited October 2020

    I note that the loading errors are making the site inaccessible again. Please think of us poor iPhone users before posting endless retweets of polling data.

    @HYUFD - I’m looking at you!!

    This page is okay, the earlier page absolutely inaccessible.

    One solution is to install an ad blocker and tell it to block platform.twitter.com

    Another solution is to disable Javascript.

    The Android version of the Chrome browser enables you to block Javascript on a site specific basis,
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    Quiet without CHB isn`t it

    He'll be back, I'm sure. No-one gets over the wire and stays free for long.
    PB is like Colditz you mean?
    Yes, exactly. That's how I picture and feel it. I can even hear the dogs sometimes.
    What uniforms are the guards wearing?

    Also at the Schloss PB - what kind of pizza is served at lunch?
  • kicorsekicorse Posts: 435
    kinabalu said:


    Well sure. But the exchange was me responding to the charge that I am an antisemite for holding the view that Starmer expelling Corbyn risks internal party strife which could outweigh the political benefit. Found that a bit harsh and not really fair.

    Yeah, a lot of stuff flying around today.

    On your substantial point, from a purely party-political standpoint, I think suspending him was the right decision. Labour has to shake off the stink of anti-Semistism fast, and quietly eliminating it from the party won't be sufficient to do that.

    That said, Corbyn plainly has a blind spot on the issue (Angela Rayner's words) rather than holding anti-Semitic views himself, but it will long be claimed that this proves otherwise. Plus I detest the way that the left has co-opted the ultra-right term "zero tolerance".

    I've never believed that the ends justify the means, but successful politicians have to. Unjust but necessary may be the verdict?
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998

    Lol suddenly Farage isn't going on about the war enough.
    Do you think Trump is the most resilient and brave person Farage has ever met?
    Trump must be pretty resilient. Anyone who invites Farage back for a second visit must be made of pretty stern stuff. Once would normally be quite enough.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129
    Times like today I actually do see the value of twitter, some of the Jezza stuff is side splittlingly hilarious.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    edited October 2020

    JACK_W said:

    North Carolina - UMASS/Lowell - 911 LV - 28/29 Oct

    Biden 48 .. Trump 48

    https://www.uml.edu/Research/public-opinion/polls/2020/NC-Oct.aspx

    Er...

    "As turnout in North Carolina is now above 81% of the total turnout in the 2016 election,1 it’s become clear that early voting has become a major part of the story. Among those who have already voted, Biden has a sizeable lead over Trump, 62% to 36%. Among those who had not voted when the field was conducted, Trump leads 64% to 30%. A clear story of this election is that Biden’s voters are voting and have voted and that the Trump campaign is counting on election day turnout to boost its numbers."

    Just how big does turnout have to be for Trump to claw back that 26% lead Biden appears to have in the votes already cast?
    The reservations that people have expressed have some validity, but the answer to the arithmetical problem you posed is about 90%, compared with 65% in 2016.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:



    No. The isenheim altarpiece. A magnificent work of expressionism. 16th century.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isenheim_Altarpiece

    We can all play that game.




    Believe it or not I was going to make the exact same reference (I just thought it would blunt the point). The finest cave art is as good as, and often strangely similar to, the purest Matisse or Picasso. Your example absolutely proves that.

    Interestingly cave art doesn’t get “better” - ie more representative. Chauvet, the earliest great example, has some of the “best”. It is 30,000 years old.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chauvet_Cave
    For shock "cuts" in the world of art... I was in an art gallery in Sienna. Medieval religious stuff mostly. so

    Madonna & child
    Madonna & child
    Madonna & child
    Child & Madonna
    Madonna & child
    etc
    etc

    then

    Dürer!

    It really explained why the Renaissance felt so awesome - the feeling of freshness as opposed to conformity to rigid archetypes....
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    I’m trying to imagine the clothes Jezbollah donned, for his ‘council of war’. Did he say, inwardly: ‘right, this time, fuck the vest’
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129
  • The Harrying of the North continues.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54741041
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Trump Approval Index History
    DATE APPROVAL INDEX S TOTAL APPROVE TOTAL DISAPPROVE
    29/10/2020 52% 47%
    07/10/2020 44% 54%

    Rasmussen Reports


    https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    Various - Quinnipiac - B+ rated

    PA - Biden 51 .. Trump 44 - 1324 LV
    OH - Biden 48 .. Trump 43 - 1186 LV
    IA - Biden 46 .. Trump 47 - 1225 LV
    FL - Biden 45 .. Trump 42 - 1324 LV

    Via 538
This discussion has been closed.