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Blimey, I was not expecting this – politicalbetting.com

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  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BLIMEY, I WAS NOT EXPECTING THIS
    I thought this was going to be about the Biden + 9 Texas poll.

    Need to find out more about the pollster
    It is a shite looking poll - various number look/feel wrong.
    Do you have the tables?
    https://github.com/GetCitizenData/VoteByMail/blob/master/VoteByMail-Texas/Modeling/October/Texas VBM Toplines 10_23_20.pdf

    It implies a fairly low turnout (above 2016 but not that much above).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366

    I believe that Citizen Data are only polling people who have voted early.

    Ok but worth remembering that 94% of the 2016 turnout have now voted in Texas.

    https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k0UNxlTYADI
  • FPT

    kinabalu said:

    Trump cut to 10% on 538 but 2.86 on Betfair. Has there ever been such a disconnect between evidence and odds on a high profile betting market?

    Yes.

    One Man started the 1996 Gold Cup as the 11-8 favourite but finished sixth behind Imperial Call. Absolutely everybody who knew anything about steeplechasing knew the horse simply could not run at racing speed beyond three miles. The GC is run over a stiff 3m 2f, so it had next to zero chance.

    It was the most extreme example I have ever encountered of the odds being wrong, but the 2020 US Presidential election is running it close.

    PtP ... are you piling onto Biden at 1.55?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Scott_xP said:
    Fair play, that's a very droll response the Trumpton has given!
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,335
    Keir 'Taking out the Trash' Starmer is determined to have his Kinnock with Militant moment isn't he.

    Fair play to him, needed doing. The Corbyn wing is as crackpot as its leader.

    RE: early voting, just be aware that many states have 3 main types of voting
    Mail In
    Early Vote in Person
    Polling day

    Some wisdom has it the Dems have a big advantage on mail ins, that in some key states Early in Person will favour the GOP and polling day will favour the GOP.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    I believe that Citizen Data are only polling people who have voted early.

    Ok but worth remembering that 94% of the 2016 turnout have now voted in Texas.

    https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

    Edit: Apols - I see others have already made this point - playing catch-up here on this quiet news day.
    Crikey!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468


    Latest turnout figures. Data from here: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    I believe that Citizen Data are only polling people who have voted early.

    No, the voting question was 972 people whilst only 422 have voted by mail in the survey
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    LadyG said:

    kinabalu said:

    This surprises me, I must admit. There is the benefit of showing that "Under New Leadership" is no empty slogan. Against this is the risk of internal warfare in the party. I would have said the potential damage is greater than the benefit but it looks like Starmer disagrees. Let's see how the Left react.

    He’s a f*cking anti-Semite and you would have ZERO tolerance for a clear and obvious racist in the Tory party. Your true colours are showing.
    Part of the problem, though, is that racists are always clear and obvious in other parties. There will be a good many people, not least on this site, who will never recognise their own tribe's failings.
    Anybody celebrating the downfall of Corbyn as the end of something is wrong. We should be celebrating it as the beginning.
    Respect to Starmer though. He’s got proper bollox

    I agree with other posters: in the short term this damages Labour, but in the long term this makes them much more credible as a governing party. If this continues, I can see myself voting - the first time ever - for Labour under him. The effete Etonian Tories are weary, dreary and unimpressive.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    If Citizen Data is right and Biden is +10 ahead in early voting, what do we think that means for the election, considering Texas is already at 94% of 2016's turnout?

    Applying the PB statistics theorem, it means Biden will get 104% of the vote ....

    :D:D:D
    Well... 104% of the 2016 turnout is theoretically possible :smiley:
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,805
    Mal557 said:

    If Citizen Data is right and Biden is +10 ahead in early voting, what do we think that means for the election, considering Texas is already at 94% of 2016's turnout?

    Applying the PB statistics theorem, it means Biden will get 104% of the vote ....

    :D:D:D
    But Trump will still find a way to claim voter fraud and win :)
    If Biden gets 104% he may have a valid claim.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    LadyG said:

    kinabalu said:

    This surprises me, I must admit. There is the benefit of showing that "Under New Leadership" is no empty slogan. Against this is the risk of internal warfare in the party. I would have said the potential damage is greater than the benefit but it looks like Starmer disagrees. Let's see how the Left react.

    He’s a f*cking anti-Semite and you would have ZERO tolerance for a clear and obvious racist in the Tory party. Your true colours are showing.
    The PB equivalent would be someone who had to beg the mods to delete their back history of racist posts, and then has to change their account name every few months for fear of anyone pinning their back history of bigotry to their real life persona. It’s just as well this site doesn’t humour anyone like that, I am sure you would agree?
  • But I am the least racist person ever....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Mal557 said:

    If Citizen Data is right and Biden is +10 ahead in early voting, what do we think that means for the election, considering Texas is already at 94% of 2016's turnout?

    Applying the PB statistics theorem, it means Biden will get 104% of the vote ....

    :D:D:D
    But Trump will still find a way to claim voter fraud and win :)
    Vote early, vote often... ;)
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Alistair said:

    I believe that Citizen Data are only polling people who have voted early.

    No, the voting question was 972 people whilst only 422 have voted by mail in the survey
    But what are they using as their headline figures? All the literature around the "organisation" seems to suggest "the point" of them is poll early voting?

    I could be wrong, it doesn't seem particularly clear to me.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    kjh said:

    Mal557 said:

    If Citizen Data is right and Biden is +10 ahead in early voting, what do we think that means for the election, considering Texas is already at 94% of 2016's turnout?

    Applying the PB statistics theorem, it means Biden will get 104% of the vote ....

    :D:D:D
    But Trump will still find a way to claim voter fraud and win :)
    If Biden gets 104% he may have a valid claim.
    Not in Chicago....
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    dr_spyn said:

    Lining the dustbin of history.
    twitter.com/M_Star_Online/status/1321804982614634499

    As usual, the extreme left see the world back to front and upside down.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,244
    edited October 2020

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mega respect to Starmer.

    All of you who have been doubting him - this is what leadership looks like.

    (No, Johnson kicking everyone out in a fit of pique because they quite rightly told him his deal was worse than May’s and would be calamitous isn’t comparable.)

    Bozo promising on national TV an independent investigation into his own party’s issues, then burying this as soon as he got the top job, doesn’t look so bright now.
    It helped him get the top job and if you lie as much as he does, no-one can really blame him when they find out he lied again. It is what makes him and Trump scandal proof.
    Johnson appears to use the strategy of saying whatever it takes to survive until tomorrow. What he said yesterday will then be irrelevant...
    The Tories were reported to the EHRC by the MCB, and decided that an investigation was not required.

    Agree the Tories should have had their own, however.

    And, as usual, BJ useless at communication and keeping his trap shut.

    SKS doing the correct things so far. Sitting MPs will be an interesting one - Sultana etc.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    "Infamy, infamy, they've all got it infamy" JC

    (Courtesy of Kenneth Williams)
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662



    Latest turnout figures. Data from here: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

    Some of those figures are really mind boggling. TX, GA,NC, unless there is a shy trump civilization living underground, these figures must be good news for Biden.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    JACK_W said:

    Great to see you back Jack.

    Thank you Mike and to others for their kind words.

    Bit of a torrid time this past year or so (the cuisine in Parkhurst is shocking don't you know) .... pleased to be out for the show across the pond.

    Would you care for a POTUS thread submission from my "Against The Grain" theme?


    Welcome back, old boy
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,244
    JACK_W said:

    Great to see you back Jack.

    Thank you Mike and to others for their kind words.

    Bit of a torrid time this past year or so (the cuisine in Parkhurst is shocking don't you know) .... pleased to be out for the show across the pond.

    Would you care for a POTUS thread submission from my "Against The Grain" theme?


    Uh-oh. Been forced into compulsory home baking by the sound of it.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    FWIW, the total vote in Fulton County, GA (Atlanta) is at 92% of 2016.
  • I believe that Citizen Data are only polling people who have voted early.

    No, that's incorrect. See question 2.

    https://github.com/GetCitizenData/VoteByMail/blob/master/VoteByMail-Texas/Modeling/October/Texas VBM Toplines 10_23_20.pdf

    The weighting seems way off on Democrat lean, education levels etc. So file under "unreliable" for that reason. But it doesn't just include early voters.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    ydoethur said:

    So what can Corbyn do now?

    1) Hope he’s exonerated, and crawl back on Starmer’s terms.

    2) Sit as an independent or resign his seat and take his humongous pension

    3) Join another party that matches his views more closely.

    It’s a no-brainer. He should do what he’s clearly always secretly wanted to do. Join a party that promotes high welfare dependency, nationalising rail, and is run by thick white posh boys like him who keep saying horrendous things they don’t realise are racist...

    Time for him to fuck off and join the Tories.

    (No, this is not meant entirely seriously.)

    The Tories would probably take him as it bumps their notional majority to 82.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    Gravis - C rated

    Ohio - Biden 47 .. Trump 49 - LV 613
    Alaska - Biden 43 .. Trump 52 - LV 780

    ..................................................................

    IBD Tracker - B+ rated .. Biden +6 .. 945 LV
    UCS Tracker - B/C rated .. Biden +12 .. 5279 LV

    Via 538
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    I believe that Citizen Data are only polling people who have voted early.

    No, that's incorrect. See question 2.

    https://github.com/GetCitizenData/VoteByMail/blob/master/VoteByMail-Texas/Modeling/October/Texas VBM Toplines 10_23_20.pdf

    The weighting seems way off on Democrat lean, education levels etc. So file under "unreliable" for that reason. But it doesn't just include early voters.
    🤷‍♂️ their "Readme" states:

    "Citizen Data's projections of key US states' absentee voting rate in the 2020 general election."
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    I believe that Citizen Data are only polling people who have voted early.

    No, the voting question was 972 people whilst only 422 have voted by mail in the survey
    But what are they using as their headline figures? All the literature around the "organisation" seems to suggest "the point" of them is poll early voting?

    I could be wrong, it doesn't seem particularly clear to me.
    They used the full sample for their headline figure, not just the early voters.

    Their most obvious dodgy thing is their education weighting - 21% HS or less is simply too low.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,103
    edited October 2020
    For Labour this can be positive on loads of fronts. Clearly signals under new management, the far left nutters get the hump and leave, they go back to dedicating their time to more extreme groups which can freely attack government policy, without Starmer having to worry about finding a load of Labour Party member card holders are the ones tweeting anti-Semitic tropes, involved in ripping a statue down or barricaded the printing presses.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    Scott_xP said:
    It occurs to me that the US has accidentally re-created 18th cent style, 2 week long, elections (in terms of voting)
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Where's CHB? :lol:
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Oh dear.

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1321812868451414016

    Corbyn is going to take Starmer on.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    Where's CHB? :lol:

    We all await the considered opinion of onetime Corbynite Nick Palmer xMP
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    edited October 2020
    I would not be surprised if Richard Burgon launches a leadership challenge.

    (Corrected from Richard Burton!) :D
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662

    FWIW, the total vote in Fulton County, GA (Atlanta) is at 92% of 2016.

    Dems voting like their lives depend on it then. Think Fulton was about 70% or so for Clinton last time
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,905

    Scott_xP said:
    Fair play, that's a very droll response the Trumpton has given!
    But the problem is whether he would want to stop living if Trumpo lost or if he won....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    For Labour this can be positive on loads of fronts. Clearly signals under new management, the far left nutters get the hump and leave, they go back to dedicating their time to more extreme groups which can freely attack government policy, without Starmer having to worry about finding a load of Labour Party member card holders are the ones tweeting anti-Semitic tropes, involved in ripping a statue down or barricaded the printing presses.

    Yes. Corbyn hasn’t yet realised that Starmer now has absolutely to follow this through.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Scott_xP said:

    twitter.com/AnaCabrera/status/1321809968174170113

    Mecklenburg County (Charlotte) is at 88%.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Can we forget America for today? It’s dull. Biden is going to win. Endex

    The Labour civil war is PROPER politics. Delicious
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    dr_spyn said:

    Oh dear.

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1321812868451414016

    Corbyn is going to take Starmer on.

    Did anyone really think he'd go quietly......
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    dr_spyn said:

    Oh dear.

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1321812868451414016

    Corbyn is going to take Starmer on.

    Which is exactly what Starmer wants :smile:
  • Forget the antisemitism for a moment, Corbyn can't even wear a mask properly.

    For that alone he deserves to be kicked out of the Labour Party forever.

    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1321813295662309376
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    So, to present a view to the contrary, Corbyn always struck me as a very decent guy (though thoroughly ideologically deluded IMO). He despises wealth but is not racist. Starmer has not gone up in my estimation, he`s succumbed to the tyranny of the prevailing opinion.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    ClippP said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Fair play, that's a very droll response the Trumpton has given!
    But the problem is whether he would want to stop living if Trumpo lost or if he won....
    Ha – fair point!!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    edited October 2020
    How is that a "legal" finding? I don't follow.

    Where a complaint of antisemitism against someone IS a fake or a smear - which is no more impossible than where the complaint is of any other unsavoury or illegal behaviour - to call it a fake or a smear cannot itself be deemed to be antisemitism. That would be nuts.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    dr_spyn said:
    I'm Spartacus! I thought Corbyn was the worst leader Labour have ever had and from the moment he was elected I didn't think he had a snowball in Hell's chance of winning but I never believed and still don't that he 'has a racist bone in his body' to quote his son and there aren't many Party leaders i could say that about. Just a few examples Michael Howard (Gypsies etc) Margaret Thatcher (South Africa) Boris Johnson (Watermelons and pilarboxes) IDS (don't get me started........)
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    LadyG said:

    JACK_W said:

    Great to see you back Jack.

    Thank you Mike and to others for their kind words.

    Bit of a torrid time this past year or so (the cuisine in Parkhurst is shocking don't you know) .... pleased to be out for the show across the pond.

    Would you care for a POTUS thread submission from my "Against The Grain" theme?


    Welcome back, old boy
    He'll be wondering who you are. "Does this woman know me? Never heard of her"
    @Mexicanpete - sorry I did not get back in time to reply to your 3 words "President Boris Johnson". All I can say to that is that least he would be temporary unlike the current, unelected mob who have jobs for life.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    dr_spyn said:

    Oh dear.

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1321812868451414016

    Corbyn is going to take Starmer on.

    Popcorn at the ready.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Jonathan said:

    I would not be surprised if Richard Burgon launches a leadership challenge.

    (Corrected from Richard Burton!) :D


    Suspect Burton would have more chance of winning, even from beyond the grave.
  • dr_spyn said:

    Oh dear.

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1321812868451414016

    Corbyn is going to take Starmer on.

    Which is exactly what Starmer wants :smile:
    There really is no fool like an old fool.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,390
    Corbyn is an idiot. Starmer wasn't going to suspend him. But then Corbyn says "I don't accept all the findings....." just after Starmer had said the LP did accept all the findings. So he had to be suspended.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914

    dr_spyn said:

    Oh dear.

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1321812868451414016

    Corbyn is going to take Starmer on.

    Which is exactly what Starmer wants :smile:
    Expect a big uptick for Starmer in the polls.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,103
    edited October 2020
    Stocky said:

    So, to present a view to the contrary, Corbyn always struck me as a very decent guy (though thoroughly ideologically deluded IMO). He despises wealth but is not racist. Starmer has not gone up in my estimation, he`s succumbed to the tyranny of the prevailing opinion.

    Jezza definitely doesn't see himself as racist, but is also totally blind to obvious antisemitism. I think it is down to a particular simplistic world view, where he sees goodies and badies, the powerful always being bad and the weak good, and he always wants to stand on one side of those dividing lines. He is totally blind to the wrong doing of those he has deemed the persecuted, be it the Sinn Fein / IRA, Hezbollah, etc, and I am sure goes to bed at night convinced he has never done anything racist in his life and those he calls friends might have, but there are mitigating factors.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    Corbyn is an idiot. Starmer wasn't going to suspend him. But then Corbyn says "I don't accept all the findings....." just after Starmer had said the LP did accept all the findings. So he had to be suspended.

    Corbyn is at last doing more for the future electoral prospects of his party than he ever managed as its leader.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Harris County (Houston) at 92%.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mega respect to Starmer.

    All of you who have been doubting him - this is what leadership looks like.

    (No, Johnson kicking everyone out in a fit of pique because they quite rightly told him his deal was worse than May’s and would be calamitous isn’t comparable.)

    Bozo promising on national TV an independent investigation into his own party’s issues, then burying this as soon as he got the top job, doesn’t look so bright now.
    It helped him get the top job and if you lie as much as he does, no-one can really blame him when they find out he lied again. It is what makes him and Trump scandal proof.
    Johnson appears to use the strategy of saying whatever it takes to survive until tomorrow. What he said yesterday will then be irrelevant...
    The Tories were reported to the EHRC by the MCB, and decided that an investigation was not required.

    Agree the Tories should have had their own, however.

    And, as usual, BJ useless at communication and keeping his trap shut.

    SKS doing the correct things so far. Sitting MPs will be an interesting one - Sultana etc.
    There is nothing much going on for a while. Throw out the leftie nutters, have by-elections and select moderates to contest them. Given the drubbing Labour took last time, probably all of its seats are safe ones.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Even Corbyn’s phrasing is weird and... creepy. ‘One anti-Semite is one too many’. So, what, half an anti-Semite is. OK?

    It shows he is marinated in the toxic terminology of this peculiar left wing discourse, and cannot understand how it appears to everyone else. I do not believe he is an anti-Semite as an act of will, but he has somehow fallen into the swamp of anti-Semitism. And every flailing attempt to get out sinks him deeper.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    Jonathan said:

    I would not be surprised if Richard Burgon launches a leadership challenge.

    (Corrected from Richard Burton!) :D


    Suspect Burton would have more chance of winning, even from beyond the grave.
    Statesman Burgon is dead already? I was too busy mourning the passing of Ball to have registered the news.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,755
    FPT

    Selebian said:

    RobD said:

    MrEd said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Poor France.

    Those poor victims. To offer condolences seems wholly inadequate but they are nonetheless offered.

    I see the BBC has it far down the screen. Marcus Rashford at the top of course:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/
    Anyone got the New York Times headline?
    Deadly Knife Attack in France Appears to Be Terrorism, Officials Say.
    At least two people were killed at a church in the southern city of Nice.


    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/29/world/europe/nice-attack-france.html?action=click&module=Latest&pgtype=Homepage
    France paying the price for sticking up for Western values.

    Meanwhile in Scotland we have new hate laws that would make criticising the ideology that carried out this attack in their own homes illegal.
    According to my reading of the proposal, showing a copy of the Charlie H at a hypothetical dinner party would be prosecutable.
    Apparently it introduces "an offence of stirring-up of hatred against people with protected characteristics", so it's not even a bill that will help protect everyone, just the chosen few.

    Essentially an Islamic blasphemy law, one of the key parts of Sharia law being implemented by one of the few Muslims in power in Scotland.
    Get a grip.

    "Protected characteristics
    These are age, disability, gender reassignment, marriage and civil partnership, pregnancy and maternity, race, religion or belief, sex, and sexual orientation."

    I don't know what you've been reading, but everyone has protected characteristics. You can't stir up hatred against the majority/less commonly persecuted in any of those groups either. So it's not ok to stir up hatred against men, against heterosexual people, against non-disabled people, against non-pregnant people, against atheists (or Christians) etc etc. The point about equality legislation is that it does protect everyone, not just those traditionally persecuted. There's a clue in the name.

    (I haven't looked in to the proposed Scottish law to see whether it makes sense, so won't comment on that, just on the random raging against equality/anti-hate law)

    Separately, @Malmesbury (genuinely interested) why would showing a copy of Charlie H stir up hatred? It's offensive to Muslims, sure, but does it stir up hatred? May be I've missed something either in Charlie H (I've only briefly read reports of what's in it) or the law, but I can't see it myself.
    If the law was applied equally to all groups then yes you'd have a point, but it is quite clear that they aren't.

    For example the professor at Cambridge that tweeted that "white lives don't matter" and "every day I resist the urge to kneecap white men" had no action taken against her.

    If the target of the tweets had been a protected minority then she would have been investigated by the police, no doubt about it.

    As for the Charlie Hebdo cartoons, it's clear they've "stirred up hatred" since a result of them getting published they got machine gunned to death and now people are getting beheaded in France left, right and centre over them.
    Thank you for the measured reply, particularly as I was a bit rude to you (sorry for that).

    I agree the law should be applied to all and it is important that it is. I'm not aware of those tweets, but I don't think tweeting "white lives don't matter" is stirring up hatred. It's stupid and crass, yes, but I don't think it is/should be illegal. The same applies to tweeting "black lives don't matter". For the second, "every day I resist the urge to kneecap white men", I'd probably need a bit more context to judge whether it's actually stirring up hatred or stupid hyperbole such as "X person should be shot", but would have thought that might interest the police to have a word at least (same if it was "every day I resist the urge to kneecap black men"). I wouldn't employ that person.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    edited October 2020
    Having looked at the crosstabs for that CitizenData Texas poll, it was a poll of 971 voters, 422 of whom had already voted on the 18/19 October. Sounds about inline with where electprojects.com had Texas at that time, from memory.

    All 971 respondents are included in the Biden Trump 51%/41% voting preference.

    The other key metric is that the party affiliation splits are Rep 34%, Dem 36% and other 30%. I am not sure what the actual Texas party registration splits are but I assume they are way more Rep than that.

    https://github.com/GetCitizenData/VoteByMail/blob/master/VoteByMail-Texas/Modeling/October/Texas VBM Toplines 10_23_20.pdf

  • Harris County (Houston) at 92%.

    That's below the statewide average then? That doesn't seem good news for Biden.

    Biden would presumably want Harris to be up at least as much or more than the rest of the state - if Harris provides a smaller percentage of the votes then that isn't a good thing.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    isam said:
    Not your finest hour Keir not even a Clause 4 moment. Unless Corbyn does something silly in the next few days this is going to look like very summary justice and not worthy of a lawyer.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,755
    Scott_xP said:
    Well, at least he's admitting that he's wrong, being "absolutely clear" about it, in fact.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,425
    HYUFD said:

    Perhaps he will join the Greens and take his supporters with him?

    If he joins another party it will be a new one. Something like, "The Very Socialist Labour Party".
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    edited October 2020

    FPT

    Pulpstar said:

    Two big outlier polls recently, Wisconsin + 17 / Texas + 9 Biden. I know the sampling WILL be wrong but it's difficult to generate polls like that even as outliers - particularly the Wisconsin one if the true state of the race is anywhere near close.

    Indeed, we're either headed for either a

    i) Biden (landslide) victory
    ii) The biggest polling disaster in history
    iii) Electoral chicanery aided and abetted by the GOP across the states and in SCOTUS handing Trump a second term.
    iii) = The end of days scenario really. Democracy across the world would not survive being deserted by its historic cheerleader.
    I agree. it would be like if Bolt had failed a doping test. Bring everything down.

    Can't see it myself. It's a (i). Biden and not close. The Big Blue.
  • Roger said:

    isam said:
    Not your finest hour Keir not even a Clause 4 moment. Unless Corbyn does something silly in the next few days this is going to look like very summary justice and not worthy of a lawyer.
    You're showing your own true colours. For all the way you look down upon people from Hartlepool you're nothing other than an apologist for racism yourself.

    Keir had no choice after the EHRC report today and Corbyn's remarks. The only reason you can't see that is you side with the racists yourself.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    Let's see if any Labour front benchers decide to self isolate in solidarity with Jezza.

    RLB would have been a dead cert but she did for herself* long since.


    I'm not using 'did for herself' in the Lily Allen sense.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    Mal557 said:



    Latest turnout figures. Data from here: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

    Some of those figures are really mind boggling. TX, GA,NC, unless there is a shy trump civilization living underground, these figures must be good news for Biden.
    Some of the Trumpets are extremely motivated. So they may well be voting early as well. Do we have any quality data on the way early voting is swinging?
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    PB HISTORIANS: has any other major party in Britain suspended its immediately previous leader? I can’t think of an example. Any abroad in other democracies?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    FPT
    Mal557 said:

    HYUFD said:

    This (from 538) has gone up a touch, even as Trump's overall chances have gone down. Might be worth thinking about.

    New Hampshire or Nevada most likely
    I've been following Jon Ralstons early voting blog in Nevada closely and the mood music there is that Biden may not be doing as well as Clinton did based on EV so Nevada might be a (slim) possibility for sure
    And note the strong rural R performance. If you think the rural midwest is going to swing heavily to Biden I've got a few bridges for sale.

    Still amazes me people can see from actual data neither Nevada, NC, or Florida etc look anything like the polling suggests and still think this is a Biden landslide.
  • "I suspect that Corbyn and his supporters will not go quietly."

    I suspect that Starmer suspects that as well. Indeed, is banking on it.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    @roger Good to see that you and @JackW are still posting.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    Latest IBD Poll out, Biden still +5% in the 4 way so pretty much no move the last few days. Found this bit in the summary quite interesting:
    'In addition to faring better among 2016 Trump and Clinton voters, Biden has wide leads among 2016 third-party voters (48%-33%) and nonvoters (64%-27%). Nonvoters are expected to make up roughly 10% of the electorate, though there are some indications in early vote totals that it could be significantly higher.'
  • isam said:

    I wonder what it will mean for the next GE. I would have thought a lot of Labour Corbynistas would stay loyal to him and his cronies if they moved to BLM, Ind or Green and so it’s worse for them, but credit to Sir Keir for doing what he thought was the right thing despite that

    He will have a massive surge of centrist support. The kind of people you need to win an election. As Tony Blair conclusively demonstrated (for all his faults).
    Blair did manage keep the more left wing elements in the party as well though.
    That turned out to be a big mistake, though, taking the long-term view of the party's and indeed national interest. He should have got rid of Corbyn, McDonnell and the other loons when he had total power over the party.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    I wonder what it will mean for the next GE. I would have thought a lot of Labour Corbynistas would stay loyal to him and his cronies if they moved to BLM, Ind or Green and so it’s worse for them, but credit to Sir Keir for doing what he thought was the right thing despite that

    He will have a massive surge of centrist support. The kind of people you need to win an election. As Tony Blair conclusively demonstrated (for all his faults).
    He's already had that
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    LadyG said:

    PB HISTORIANS: has any other major party in Britain suspended its immediately previous leader? I can’t think of an example. Any abroad in other democracies?

    Ramsay Mac.
  • LadyG said:

    PB HISTORIANS: has any other major party in Britain suspended its immediately previous leader? I can’t think of an example. Any abroad in other democracies?

    Ramsay MacDonald.
  • I wonder what the union positions are on this. Does SKS have their support, and - if not - what are the financial consequences for Labour?

    Though they might NOT shoot it from the rooftops, wouldn't they (the smarter ones anyway) be delighted to get rid of the Toxic Yard Gnome?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,859
    In fairness to Corbyn when you think about the stuff the Labour party put up with for years, such as inviting IRA terrorists to Parliament, this must have come as a bit of a shocker. He must almost be wishing that he had remained a completely irrelevant tosser for the whole of his Parliamentary career.

    SKS has done the right thing here. Not sure if that was his first intention (although he may have been trying to be very careful not to be seen as pre-judging things, lawyers get sensitive about that sort of thing) but he is there now. There are plenty of others that were around Corbyn, however, that also need to go.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mega respect to Starmer.

    All of you who have been doubting him - this is what leadership looks like.

    (No, Johnson kicking everyone out in a fit of pique because they quite rightly told him his deal was worse than May’s and would be calamitous isn’t comparable.)

    Bozo promising on national TV an independent investigation into his own party’s issues, then burying this as soon as he got the top job, doesn’t look so bright now.
    It helped him get the top job and if you lie as much as he does, no-one can really blame him when they find out he lied again. It is what makes him and Trump scandal proof.
    Johnson appears to use the strategy of saying whatever it takes to survive until tomorrow. What he said yesterday will then be irrelevant...
    The Tories were reported to the EHRC by the MCB, and decided that an investigation was not required.

    Agree the Tories should have had their own, however.

    And, as usual, BJ useless at communication and keeping his trap shut.

    SKS doing the correct things so far. Sitting MPs will be an interesting one - Sultana etc.
    There is nothing much going on for a while. Throw out the leftie nutters, have by-elections and select moderates to contest them. Given the drubbing Labour took last time, probably all of its seats are safe ones.
    By elections only happen if the MPs concerned resign. How likely is that?
  • LadyG said:

    PB HISTORIANS: has any other major party in Britain suspended its immediately previous leader? I can’t think of an example. Any abroad in other democracies?

    Labour isn't another major party to be fair but Labour themselves with Ramsay surely?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,103
    edited October 2020
    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1321807355265376257?s=20


    https://order-order.com/2020/10/29/campaign-against-antisemitism-submits-evidence-against-15-other-labour-mps/

    The 15 sitting MPs named are:

    Diane Abbott
    Tahir Ali
    Mike Amesbury
    Apsana Begum
    Richard Burgon
    Barry Gardiner
    Kate Hollern
    Afzal Khan
    Rebecca Lon Bailey
    Angel Rayner
    Steve Reed
    Lloyd Russell-Moyle
    Barry Sheerman
    Zarah Sultana
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366

    "I suspect that Corbyn and his supporters will not go quietly."

    I suspect that Starmer suspects that as well. Indeed, is banking on it.

    I think he would prefer if they went relatively quietly.

    But they won't. They can't.

    For they are The Elect (who lost a couple of elections, but The People were wrong) - the anointed, the blessed etc..
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    LadyG said:

    Can we forget America for today? It’s dull. Biden is going to win. Endex

    The Labour civil war is PROPER politics. Delicious

    LadyG said:

    Can we forget America for today? It’s dull. Biden is going to win. Endex

    The Labour civil war is PROPER politics. Delicious

    Labour civil war this week, the American Civil War next week.

    A week, these days, is certainly a long time in politics.
  • https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1321807355265376257?s=20

    The 15 sitting MPs named are:

    Diane Abbott
    Tahir Ali
    Mike Amesbury
    Apsana Begum
    Richard Burgon
    Barry Gardiner
    Kate Hollern
    Afzal Khan
    Rebecca Lon Bailey
    Angel Rayner
    Steve Reed
    Lloyd Russell-Moyle
    Barry Sheerman
    Zarah Sultana

    https://order-order.com/2020/10/29/campaign-against-antisemitism-submits-evidence-against-15-other-labour-mps/

    She's no Angel.
This discussion has been closed.