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My logic for bailing out of the spread betting markets on this year’s White House Race – politicalbe

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  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    nichomar said:

    Global infections still increasing will hit 500k/day shortly, the National focus on minutiae is laughable when looked at in the larger picture, socks in Wales for f**** sake. Even if controlled in the UK it will be back six weeks latter, let’s get all focus on effective treatment prior to icu admission, the vaccine and providing an environment for those who wish to shelter that is tolerable. Limiting family gatherings is cruel, Christmas is going to be a mental health disaster if things don’t change. But we worry about socks!

    Helps them take the pressure off the right wing nutters in England.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226

    alex_ said:

    Isn’t the argument, not that Johnson thinks that he will get a trade deal if Trump wins, but just that it will show that the “Trumplike” approach to politics/Govt (which is the nodeal option) will continue to be electorally successful?

    Trying to draw that analogy between UK and USA would be insane, surely? So that might be the answer.

    More likely, Johnson has finally realised that his choice is No Deal or basically the deal the EU had in mind all along, neither of which is pleasant to him. No Deal will be chaos, and the Deal is a pig, with a voucher to buy lipstick in a Welsh supermarket.

    Johnson is hopeless in "least bad option" decisions, presumably because he has ducked them all his life. Hence his rubbish response to the virus.

    Letting the US electorate take control of Brexit is totally in character for the PM.
    If Biden wins then Boris will find it difficult to get a FTA with the US with the internal markets bill so will need a deal with the EU to minimise its impact, even if Trump is re elected provided the Democrats retain at least the House then the same in effect applies as Pelosi will have a veto on any UK FTA.

    However I would not say the alternative is No Deal or the Deal the EU had in mind all along, that would be a deal which saw the UK stay in the SM and CU, something Boris is not going to do, a Deal which sees the UK compromise on state aid and the EU compromise on fishing which looks the likeliest outcome is more a genuine negotiation which led to another compromises from both sides for a Deal
  • https://twitter.com/SelaineSaxby/status/1319755372857622528

    I feel so sorry for these poor Conservative victims. All they did was vote against feeding hungry children. And in Selaine's case berated businesses for showing compassion and charity. Someone needs to Step In and tell these monsters in the British Public to shut up. Someone well liked and respected. Like Laurence Fox.
  • Next Rupert Soames will be shocked to find out water is wet.

    https://twitter.com/LeightonAndrews/status/1320290127986511877
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773

    nichomar said:

    Global infections still increasing will hit 500k/day shortly, the National focus on minutiae is laughable when looked at in the larger picture, socks in Wales for f**** sake. Even if controlled in the UK it will be back six weeks latter, let’s get all focus on effective treatment prior to icu admission, the vaccine and providing an environment for those who wish to shelter that is tolerable. Limiting family gatherings is cruel, Christmas is going to be a mental health disaster if things don’t change. But we worry about socks!

    Actually, there are many people in Wales who don't have much money, who live pay-check to pay-check & who don't have spare coats/clothes for their children in the case of an emergency.

    The media have found plenty of examples.

    It is easy to bear the privations of others, especially if you have wandered out of the moneyed affluence of a PG Wodehouse novel -- like a large fraction of the commentators on pb.com.
    Once again we see pensioners on secure incomes advocating tough measures for everyone else.

    Over recent months Covid has been well down the league table of causes of death in the UK, and those who have sadly died have mostly been in their 70s or older. So-called long covid symptoms, which range from mild to serious, affect somewhere between 10% (Spectre) and 30% (Bergamo) of those infected initially, with many recovering completely in the months following (Bergamo).

    The object of the restrictions should be to prevent hospitals becoming overwhelmed (which in a UK context only appears a risk in the NW currently), not to 'eliminate' the virus.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    edited October 2020
    Nigelb said:

    And interesting account from Wisconsin, which suggests that the forecast of a Democratic win is likely correct.
    https://www.newyorker.com/news/campaign-chronicles/will-trumps-law-and-order-message-work-in-wisconsins-white-suburbs

    The article is more nuanced than that, it suggests there are more Biden signs than there were Hillary signs in Wisconsin but also more Trump supporters in the key counties than there were in 2016 too, with some who left their ballots blank last time at the presidential level voting for Trump this time
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Isn’t the argument, not that Johnson thinks that he will get a trade deal if Trump wins, but just that it will show that the “Trumplike” approach to politics/Govt (which is the nodeal option) will continue to be electorally successful?

    Trying to draw that analogy between UK and USA would be insane, surely? So that might be the answer.

    More likely, Johnson has finally realised that his choice is No Deal or basically the deal the EU had in mind all along, neither of which is pleasant to him. No Deal will be chaos, and the Deal is a pig, with a voucher to buy lipstick in a Welsh supermarket.

    Johnson is hopeless in "least bad option" decisions, presumably because he has ducked them all his life. Hence his rubbish response to the virus.

    Letting the US electorate take control of Brexit is totally in character for the PM.
    If Biden wins then Boris will find it difficult to get a FTA with the US with the internal markets bill so will need a deal with the EU to minimise its impact, even if Trump is re elected provided the Democrats retain at least the House then the same in effect applies as Pelosi will have a veto on any UK FTA.

    However I would not say the alternative is No Deal or the Deal the EU had in mind all along, that would be a deal which saw the UK stay in the SM and CU, something Boris is not going to do, a Deal which sees the UK compromise on state aid and the EU compromise on fishing which looks the likeliest outcome is more a genuine negotiation which led to another compromises from both sides for a Deal
    I think that reads as Boris will capitulate 100% as England hold all the cards lets fold now.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    IanB2 said:


    Russell George, the Tory AM who helpfully suggested to Mark Drakeford his hugely unpopular supermarket policy, now denies it was anything to do with him.

    "I don't support the Welsh Government's approach to banning non-essential sales in Welsh shops, I’m the one that got the FM to admit his plans! Retail should be open, the National lockdown is wrong approach "

    I love the way Russell describes Drakeford implementing Russell's bad idea as getting "the FM to admit his plans! " Genius.

    Did he just raise the problem (of unhappy shopkeepers) or did he first float the implemented solution?
    Fair point, there is some wiggle room for Russell George AM.

    He raised the point that it was "unfair" on small shops that supermarkets were open and could sell items while independent clothing and hardware retailers were shut.

    Drakeford then said, in response to his question,

    "In the first set of restrictions people were reasonably understanding of the fact that supermarkets didn’t close all the things that they may have needed to. I don’t think that people will be as understanding this time and we will be making it clear to supermarkets that they are only able to open those parts of their business that provide essential goods to people and that will not include some of the things that Russell George mentioned which other people are prevented from selling."

    So, I think you are right.

    Russell George raised the problem, but the solution & its implementation is due to Drakeford.
    I don't think Russell George is smart enough to have realised the magnificence of the stunt he pulled off.

    Furious backpedaling on Monday from Drakeford no doubt. My take is George's point is fundamentally correct, but by over reacting the WG have brought the whole fire break idea crashing down around them, which is a shame. When Drakeford does U turn, every man and his dog will be queuing to browse for tat at Tesco.

    It is a big win for Russell George, the Welsh Tories, Boris and the English based media.
    And more than that, plain common sense
    No BigG. it is not. The idea behind restricting shopping to essential items makes perfect sense if the fire break has any chance to work. It has been implemented dreadfully.

    The issue of the fire break is essentially an issue of political choice. Labour, PC and the LDs in Wales are in favour, the Conservatives and Brexit Party are opposed to it. Drakeford's foolhardiness has allowed the opponents to seize the agenda and undermine the whole notion of the fire break. Ensuring the fire break fails confirms that Johnson's system (even if it is failing badly) is the only way forward, not only for England but for Wales and Scotland too.

    When Drakeford capitulates it will be like the January sales.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,700
    malcolmg said:

    MattW said:

    FPT:

    welshowl said:

    We have tended to mirror France, with a lag. The Government needs to get a grip on this now - but I fear yet again they will do nothing and in three weeks we'll be in another hole.

    How’s old Drakeford going then? He has the power to be a shining example. If whatever you want.

    Reality - He’s done bugger all different for months till Friday when he had a total brain fart and is currently just about public enemy no 1 here.
    Drakeford has done something decisive, whether you agree with it or not the reality is that the only thing that got cases down in the UK was a full lockdown.

    BoJo is doing nothing - and cases are still going on. He needs to implement a lockdown to stop us turning into France.
    I assume you live in a tier 1 location? Otherwise I don’t understand how you think the government is doing nothing. You may think we need to do more. That’s your right, but to categorise the restrictions on a huge swath of England as doing nothing is just ridiculous. I was lucky enough to meet with 3 of my extended family today for a nice lunch at my parents house Many in England can’t do that.
    What CHB means when he says the Government is doing nothing is that they are not doing what he thinks they should.

    And what he means when he says Drakeford is decisive is that he has decided to do something that CHB approves of.

    Even if he wants to continue to frame the Government as doing nothing, then he can’t also say that is indecisive. It is clearly a decision to do nothing.

    In summary the Government has decisively decided on a three tier approach, which is both something and decisive.
    +1 to @Nemtynakht.

    This week the R number has started to move back down for the country as a whole, which was before any impact of Starmer's politicking, Burnham's self-promotion, or Drakeford's petty-authoritarian flappery.

    Can't comment on chippy Nicky - I've been ignoring her.

    16 October - 1.3-1.5 range.
    23 October - 1.2-1.4 range,

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54567867
    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk

    Which would seem to indicate that the existing - much maligned by those who gain by such maligning - measures are actually having an impact.

    Let's not mistake politics for something that is actually needed.
    Little Englander posts crap, yawn. I am sure Scottish FM is really concerned that a bellend like you is ignoring her.
    Wouldn't know Malc - been ignoring her.

    If you have something useful to say about the Scottish numbers before you vanish up your Rs again, I'd love to hear it.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,076
    edited October 2020
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I'm surprised there hasn't been one already. Quite often pressure to u turn builds so quickly it happens in a couple of days, but this story has been rumbling for a week at least.
    My Red Wall council being what it is we have 1 MP (new Tory) for the council area and a council that is Tory lead but NoC.

    Today after the Labour party sorted out Food parcels yesterday, the council announced support out of embarrassment

    https://twitter.com/PeteBarronMedia/status/1320274529193742342
  • Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    I don't want to shock anyone here but perusing the NC early voting data I see that no less than Four Hundred and Twelve people of the age 120 years old have cast their early vote.

    What do you mean? There are 412 people who are 120 years old that have voted?
    Yes. And one person who is 257 years old.
    I can believe it, but do you have any evidence for it?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344

    Just been denied by Brandon Lewis on Sophy Ridge
    Oh!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited October 2020
    Why not? Whatever the merits of the case, the govt is losing the argument, badly.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1320293905393459206?s=20
  • eekeek Posts: 28,076
    Scott_xP said:
    Nope, it's more the fact they are revealing how callous they are - all wrapped up in a story anyone can quickly understand,
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773
    Scott_xP said:
    I can't judge her personal contribution and can only look at the record of unfortunate disasters that have tended to follow her around.

    But the point is surely approaching where a strategic sacking is going to be attractive to HMG in order to let off some of the building steam. And since Dom is apparently unsackeable, her days may well be numbered..
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,385
    edited October 2020
    "If a vaccine is not going to put a definitive end to the virus, and we are still going to have to manage it in the most effective ways that can be found – why won’t Government ministers even engage with the possibility that we should be managing it in sensible, less destructive ways right now?"

    Janet Daley, Telegraph.
  • IanB2 said:


    Russell George, the Tory AM who helpfully suggested to Mark Drakeford his hugely unpopular supermarket policy, now denies it was anything to do with him.

    "I don't support the Welsh Government's approach to banning non-essential sales in Welsh shops, I’m the one that got the FM to admit his plans! Retail should be open, the National lockdown is wrong approach "

    I love the way Russell describes Drakeford implementing Russell's bad idea as getting "the FM to admit his plans! " Genius.

    Did he just raise the problem (of unhappy shopkeepers) or did he first float the implemented solution?
    Fair point, there is some wiggle room for Russell George AM.

    He raised the point that it was "unfair" on small shops that supermarkets were open and could sell items while independent clothing and hardware retailers were shut.

    Drakeford then said, in response to his question,

    "In the first set of restrictions people were reasonably understanding of the fact that supermarkets didn’t close all the things that they may have needed to. I don’t think that people will be as understanding this time and we will be making it clear to supermarkets that they are only able to open those parts of their business that provide essential goods to people and that will not include some of the things that Russell George mentioned which other people are prevented from selling."

    So, I think you are right.

    Russell George raised the problem, but the solution & its implementation is due to Drakeford.
    I don't think Russell George is smart enough to have realised the magnificence of the stunt he pulled off.

    Furious backpedaling on Monday from Drakeford no doubt. My take is George's point is fundamentally correct, but by over reacting the WG have brought the whole fire break idea crashing down around them, which is a shame. When Drakeford does U turn, every man and his dog will be queuing to browse for tat at Tesco.

    It is a big win for Russell George, the Welsh Tories, Boris and the English based media.
    And more than that, plain common sense
    No BigG. it is not. The idea behind restricting shopping to essential items makes perfect sense if the fire break has any chance to work. It has been implemented dreadfully.

    The issue of the fire break is essentially an issue of political choice. Labour, PC and the LDs in Wales are in favour, the Conservatives and Brexit Party are opposed to it. Drakeford's foolhardiness has allowed the opponents to seize the agenda and undermine the whole notion of the fire break. Ensuring the fire break fails confirms that Johnson's system (even if it is failing badly) is the only way forward, not only for England but for Wales and Scotland too.

    When Drakeford capitulates it will be like the January sales.
    To me it is common sense not to prevent customers shopping for products they normally buy in supermarkets creating a firestorm of anger

    However, I do agree this has been a disaster for Drakeford and remarkably my family members and their social media groups actually now associate him with this policy and he has become almost infamous overnight when he was virtually unknown before

    I do agree it is going to be near impossible to repeat a Wales only circuit breaker again
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    IanB2 said:

    nichomar said:

    Global infections still increasing will hit 500k/day shortly, the National focus on minutiae is laughable when looked at in the larger picture, socks in Wales for f**** sake. Even if controlled in the UK it will be back six weeks latter, let’s get all focus on effective treatment prior to icu admission, the vaccine and providing an environment for those who wish to shelter that is tolerable. Limiting family gatherings is cruel, Christmas is going to be a mental health disaster if things don’t change. But we worry about socks!

    Actually, there are many people in Wales who don't have much money, who live pay-check to pay-check & who don't have spare coats/clothes for their children in the case of an emergency.

    The media have found plenty of examples.

    It is easy to bear the privations of others, especially if you have wandered out of the moneyed affluence of a PG Wodehouse novel -- like a large fraction of the commentators on pb.com.
    Once again we see pensioners on secure incomes advocating tough measures for everyone else.

    Over recent months Covid has been well down the league table of causes of death in the UK, and those who have sadly died have mostly been in their 70s or older. So-called long covid symptoms, which range from mild to serious, affect somewhere between 10% (Spectre) and 30% (Bergamo) of those infected initially, with many recovering completely in the months following (Bergamo).

    The object of the restrictions should be to prevent hospitals becoming overwhelmed (which in a UK context only appears a risk in the NW currently), not to 'eliminate' the virus.
    Surely there are plenty of relatively poor pensioners, they are not all blue rinse Tories on huge DB pensions, monied families , etc to supplement their meagre state pensions. Given the supposed average pension pot is circa 100K it means there are many many poor pensioners about.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Nope, it's more the fact they are revealing how callous they are - all wrapped up in a story anyone can quickly understand,
    I believe that Devon Tory MPs comment was something along the lines of if her local shops can afford to give away free food to starving children, they can't be doing that badly? If so, she deserves all the criticism she has got.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,385
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I can't judge her personal contribution and can only look at the record of unfortunate disasters that have tended to follow her around.

    But the point is surely approaching where a strategic sacking is going to be attractive to HMG in order to let off some of the building steam. And since Dom is apparently unsackeable, her days may well be numbered..
    "Sack" is surely the wrong word for being moved to an even bigger job. Which is what will happen.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    nico679 said:

    Even though many GOP will vote on Election Day the Dems have a huge advantage as their turn out operation on the day doesn’t need to be contacting as many people . They can direct their resources more effectively .

    I think that is a good point, may or may not have much impact but it certainly means that the Dems are going to have the easier GOTV vote on the 3rd.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,824
    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I'm surprised there hasn't been one already. Quite often pressure to u turn builds so quickly it happens in a couple of days, but this story has been rumbling for a week at least.
    My Red Wall council being what it is we have 1 MP (new Tory) for the council area and a council that is Tory lead but NoC.

    Today after the Labour party sorted out Food parcels yesterday, the council announced support out of embarrassment

    https://twitter.com/PeteBarronMedia/status/1320274529193742342
    At this rate I guess no need for a u turn if local gov and business foots the bill, and no political capital gained in doing so. I still expect it though.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,890
    IanB2 said:

    But the point is surely approaching where a strategic sacking is going to be attractive to HMG in order to let off some of the building steam. And since Dom is apparently unsackeable, her days may well be numbered..

    Yes, except that would be the first domino.

    If you can sack Dido for gross incompetence, why not Gavin Williamson?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting that the Sunday Times claims that Bozo is going to wait and let US voters decide our Brexit fate; Trump re-election means no deal, Biden means compromise deal.

    Ideal scenario ..... Biden wins tells UK to go to hell in a handcart.... the economy nosedives... Johnson deposed.... general election ...PM Starmer promises another Referendum..... re-enter wins..... EU agrees subject to joining Schengen and the euro....


    and we all live happily ever after
    Even in an idealised scenario you cannot imagine everyone would happily or even sullenly live with that. Brexit didn't get to be such a huge deal because no one cares much about it except on one side.
    You're too pessimistic. I believe that as the Hartlipudlians become more advanced they'll get used to slim attractive Europeans living amongst them.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    I love the "Shagger waiting to see who wins the election" story. In other words his entire future plan post Brexit is to shackle ourselves to the US. Except that the US don't want to play. "Cripes!" says Shagger, "best to wait and see".

    Don't worry, industry would be in a horrendous mess by now with nothing decided and just weeks to go. Would be had industry not already concluded that we will remain on the same terms as we have now as capitulation is the only way forward.

    As my new Romanian overlords put it when I suggested allowing for Brexit contingencies, even if we wanted to no deal we can't impose checks & tariffs as we don't have the people, systems and infrastructure to do so. Which means our "no deal" threat is no threat at all.

    "Isn't the PM wearing marvellous new Brexit clothes!" say the handful of remaining Brexit cheerleaders. "What clothes? We can see his cock" says Barnier...

    So microscopes are still readily available?
  • Why not? Whatever the merits of the case, the govt is losing the argument, badly.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1320293905393459206?s=20

    It is and totally unavoidable
  • eekeek Posts: 28,076

    https://twitter.com/SelaineSaxby/status/1319755372857622528

    I feel so sorry for these poor Conservative victims. All they did was vote against feeding hungry children. And in Selaine's case berated businesses for showing compassion and charity. Someone needs to Step In and tell these monsters in the British Public to shut up. Someone well liked and respected. Like Laurence Fox.

    Or Nigel Farage - who got the issue immediately.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1319172209403961346
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773

    IanB2 said:


    Russell George, the Tory AM who helpfully suggested to Mark Drakeford his hugely unpopular supermarket policy, now denies it was anything to do with him.

    "I don't support the Welsh Government's approach to banning non-essential sales in Welsh shops, I’m the one that got the FM to admit his plans! Retail should be open, the National lockdown is wrong approach "

    I love the way Russell describes Drakeford implementing Russell's bad idea as getting "the FM to admit his plans! " Genius.

    Did he just raise the problem (of unhappy shopkeepers) or did he first float the implemented solution?
    Fair point, there is some wiggle room for Russell George AM.

    He raised the point that it was "unfair" on small shops that supermarkets were open and could sell items while independent clothing and hardware retailers were shut.

    Drakeford then said, in response to his question,

    "In the first set of restrictions people were reasonably understanding of the fact that supermarkets didn’t close all the things that they may have needed to. I don’t think that people will be as understanding this time and we will be making it clear to supermarkets that they are only able to open those parts of their business that provide essential goods to people and that will not include some of the things that Russell George mentioned which other people are prevented from selling."

    So, I think you are right.

    Russell George raised the problem, but the solution & its implementation is due to Drakeford.
    I don't think Russell George is smart enough to have realised the magnificence of the stunt he pulled off.

    Furious backpedaling on Monday from Drakeford no doubt. My take is George's point is fundamentally correct, but by over reacting the WG have brought the whole fire break idea crashing down around them, which is a shame. When Drakeford does U turn, every man and his dog will be queuing to browse for tat at Tesco.

    It is a big win for Russell George, the Welsh Tories, Boris and the English based media.
    And more than that, plain common sense
    No BigG. it is not. The idea behind restricting shopping to essential items makes perfect sense if the fire break has any chance to work. It has been implemented dreadfully.

    The issue of the fire break is essentially an issue of political choice. Labour, PC and the LDs in Wales are in favour, the Conservatives and Brexit Party are opposed to it. Drakeford's foolhardiness has allowed the opponents to seize the agenda and undermine the whole notion of the fire break. Ensuring the fire break fails confirms that Johnson's system (even if it is failing badly) is the only way forward, not only for England but for Wales and Scotland too.

    When Drakeford capitulates it will be like the January sales.
    So that Tory won't only have landed a blow on the Welsh government, he'll have dented the credibility of the Starmer circuit-breaker and delivered a big win for local shopkeepers too? Truly strategic genius.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    IanB2 said:


    Russell George, the Tory AM who helpfully suggested to Mark Drakeford his hugely unpopular supermarket policy, now denies it was anything to do with him.

    "I don't support the Welsh Government's approach to banning non-essential sales in Welsh shops, I’m the one that got the FM to admit his plans! Retail should be open, the National lockdown is wrong approach "

    I love the way Russell describes Drakeford implementing Russell's bad idea as getting "the FM to admit his plans! " Genius.

    Did he just raise the problem (of unhappy shopkeepers) or did he first float the implemented solution?
    Fair point, there is some wiggle room for Russell George AM.

    He raised the point that it was "unfair" on small shops that supermarkets were open and could sell items while independent clothing and hardware retailers were shut.

    Drakeford then said, in response to his question,

    "In the first set of restrictions people were reasonably understanding of the fact that supermarkets didn’t close all the things that they may have needed to. I don’t think that people will be as understanding this time and we will be making it clear to supermarkets that they are only able to open those parts of their business that provide essential goods to people and that will not include some of the things that Russell George mentioned which other people are prevented from selling."

    So, I think you are right.

    Russell George raised the problem, but the solution & its implementation is due to Drakeford.
    I don't think Russell George is smart enough to have realised the magnificence of the stunt he pulled off.

    Furious backpedaling on Monday from Drakeford no doubt. My take is George's point is fundamentally correct, but by over reacting the WG have brought the whole fire break idea crashing down around them, which is a shame. When Drakeford does U turn, every man and his dog will be queuing to browse for tat at Tesco.

    It is a big win for Russell George, the Welsh Tories, Boris and the English based media.
    And more than that, plain common sense
    No BigG. it is not. The idea behind restricting shopping to essential items makes perfect sense if the fire break has any chance to work. It has been implemented dreadfully.

    The issue of the fire break is essentially an issue of political choice. Labour, PC and the LDs in Wales are in favour, the Conservatives and Brexit Party are opposed to it. Drakeford's foolhardiness has allowed the opponents to seize the agenda and undermine the whole notion of the fire break. Ensuring the fire break fails confirms that Johnson's system (even if it is failing badly) is the only way forward, not only for England but for Wales and Scotland too.

    When Drakeford capitulates it will be like the January sales.
    Scotland does not need Johnson's corrupt gang or system anywhere near them, they are a toxic bunch of venal crooks.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316

    Why not? Whatever the merits of the case, the govt is losing the argument, badly.

    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1320293036413288450?s=20

    Spitting image need to have their Starmer puppet painted grey as the love child on John Major
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Next Rupert Soames will be shocked to find out water is wet.

    https://twitter.com/LeightonAndrews/status/1320290127986511877

    It is incredibly rare that Leighton Andrews says anything intelligent, especially on HE where his record was beyond dire. Had he been running a private company and not a public ministry, the Fraud Squad would likely have been asking him awkward questions after his tenure ended.

    So for him to be able to burn this government tells us all we need to know about how shite they are.

    Albeit somehow it eluded Drakeford that there is a university in Bangor.
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    I don't want to shock anyone here but perusing the NC early voting data I see that no less than Four Hundred and Twelve people of the age 120 years old have cast their early vote.

    What do you mean? There are 412 people who are 120 years old that have voted?
    Yes. And one person who is 257 years old.
    120 year olds = they were born in 2000, wrote "00" for the year part of the date of birth, transcriber typed in 1900 instead of 2000.
    257 year old = person was born in 1963, wrote the loop of the 9 in a flat kind of way, transcriber misread it as a 7 and typed it in without thinking.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Scott_xP said:

    IanB2 said:

    But the point is surely approaching where a strategic sacking is going to be attractive to HMG in order to let off some of the building steam. And since Dom is apparently unsackeable, her days may well be numbered..

    Yes, except that would be the first domino.

    If you can sack Dido for gross incompetence, why not Gavin Williamson?
    Or Dominic Cummings? Or Boris Johnson?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    welshowl said:

    IanB2 said:


    Russell George, the Tory AM who helpfully suggested to Mark Drakeford his hugely unpopular supermarket policy, now denies it was anything to do with him.

    "I don't support the Welsh Government's approach to banning non-essential sales in Welsh shops, I’m the one that got the FM to admit his plans! Retail should be open, the National lockdown is wrong approach "

    I love the way Russell describes Drakeford implementing Russell's bad idea as getting "the FM to admit his plans! " Genius.

    Did he just raise the problem (of unhappy shopkeepers) or did he first float the implemented solution?
    Fair point, there is some wiggle room for Russell George AM.

    He raised the point that it was "unfair" on small shops that supermarkets were open and could sell items while independent clothing and hardware retailers were shut.

    Drakeford then said, in response to his question,

    "In the first set of restrictions people were reasonably understanding of the fact that supermarkets didn’t close all the things that they may have needed to. I don’t think that people will be as understanding this time and we will be making it clear to supermarkets that they are only able to open those parts of their business that provide essential goods to people and that will not include some of the things that Russell George mentioned which other people are prevented from selling."

    So, I think you are right.

    Russell George raised the problem, but the solution & its implementation is due to Drakeford.
    I don't think Russell George is smart enough to have realised the magnificence of the stunt he pulled off.

    Furious backpedaling on Monday from Drakeford no doubt. My take is George's point is fundamentally correct, but by over reacting the WG have brought the whole fire break idea crashing down around them, which is a shame. When Drakeford does U turn, every man and his dog will be queuing to browse for tat at Tesco.

    It is a big win for Russell George, the Welsh Tories, Boris and the English based media.
    Well I told the cat her cat litter was not essential this morning and asked her to hold on for another 16 days.

    The reply I got was wholly more sensible than anything the Welsh Govt is capable of.
    I would highly doubt that the pet isle where you will find pet litter next to pet food is deemed a non essential. Although what do I know? And I really can't be arsed to check up on it. I suspect you are just being silly though.

    It is an error which has been picked up and run with by the media and it is a massive defeat for Labour, not only in Wales, but for Starmer too.
  • Scott_xP said:
    If they want to claim its misleading their angle should be that its a provision for the year, not what has been spent so far, which is presumably a lot less. Perhaps they are not tracking whats actually been spent very well either.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,076
    kle4 said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I'm surprised there hasn't been one already. Quite often pressure to u turn builds so quickly it happens in a couple of days, but this story has been rumbling for a week at least.
    My Red Wall council being what it is we have 1 MP (new Tory) for the council area and a council that is Tory lead but NoC.

    Today after the Labour party sorted out Food parcels yesterday, the council announced support out of embarrassment

    https://twitter.com/PeteBarronMedia/status/1320274529193742342
    At this rate I guess no need for a u turn if local gov and business foots the bill, and no political capital gained in doing so. I still expect it though.
    Our local Council has a problem though - they control only 1 school within the council area (I PFI school in a building so bad with costs so high no Academy chain will touch it).

    So the council will be subsidising something it has no control over as it's been forced to do so by a better organised opposition (who were using their own money while the Tory party will be using Council money rather than their own).
  • HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Isn’t the argument, not that Johnson thinks that he will get a trade deal if Trump wins, but just that it will show that the “Trumplike” approach to politics/Govt (which is the nodeal option) will continue to be electorally successful?

    Trying to draw that analogy between UK and USA would be insane, surely? So that might be the answer.

    More likely, Johnson has finally realised that his choice is No Deal or basically the deal the EU had in mind all along, neither of which is pleasant to him. No Deal will be chaos, and the Deal is a pig, with a voucher to buy lipstick in a Welsh supermarket.

    Johnson is hopeless in "least bad option" decisions, presumably because he has ducked them all his life. Hence his rubbish response to the virus.

    Letting the US electorate take control of Brexit is totally in character for the PM.
    If Biden wins then Boris will find it difficult to get a FTA with the US with the internal markets bill so will need a deal with the EU to minimise its impact, even if Trump is re elected provided the Democrats retain at least the House then the same in effect applies as Pelosi will have a veto on any UK FTA.

    However I would not say the alternative is No Deal or the Deal the EU had in mind all along, that would be a deal which saw the UK stay in the SM and CU, something Boris is not going to do, a Deal which sees the UK compromise on state aid and the EU compromise on fishing which looks the likeliest outcome is more a genuine negotiation which led to another compromises from both sides for a Deal
    By when? There are only eight weeks left after the American election. You are no doubt right that a compromise will be found (we can't whizz up a new trawler fleet out of thin air) but will there first need to be an extension of the transition arrangements past January? The optics would not be good for Boris but the alternative might be worse, and perhaps the corona virus will provide political cover.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    kle4 said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I'm surprised there hasn't been one already. Quite often pressure to u turn builds so quickly it happens in a couple of days, but this story has been rumbling for a week at least.
    My Red Wall council being what it is we have 1 MP (new Tory) for the council area and a council that is Tory lead but NoC.

    Today after the Labour party sorted out Food parcels yesterday, the council announced support out of embarrassment

    https://twitter.com/PeteBarronMedia/status/1320274529193742342
    At this rate I guess no need for a u turn if local gov and business foots the bill, and no political capital gained in doing so. I still expect it though.
    They have been shown up for the lying duplicitous evil gits that they are. Fill their boots claiming expenses for their children, gorge on subsidised food and drink yet happy for poor children to starve. People in England should be ashamed to have voted for this bunch of uncaring crooked barstewards.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,385
    Scott_xP said:
    Starmer is going to think that being in Opposition is easy at this rate. All he has to do is get up in the morning, see what the latest self-inflicted own goal Johnson and Rasputin have shot that morning and then stick the knife in a bit further.

    To mix my metaphors.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I can't judge her personal contribution and can only look at the record of unfortunate disasters that have tended to follow her around.

    But the point is surely approaching where a strategic sacking is going to be attractive to HMG in order to let off some of the building steam. And since Dom is apparently unsackeable, her days may well be numbered..
    "Sack" is surely the wrong word for being moved to an even bigger job. Which is what will happen.
    Soon she will be PM material in the twisted Tories logic.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    edited October 2020
    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting that the Sunday Times claims that Bozo is going to wait and let US voters decide our Brexit fate; Trump re-election means no deal, Biden means compromise deal.

    Ideal scenario ..... Biden wins tells UK to go to hell in a handcart.... the economy nosedives... Johnson deposed.... general election ...PM Starmer promises another Referendum..... re-enter wins..... EU agrees subject to joining Schengen and the euro....


    and we all live happily ever after
    Even in an idealised scenario you cannot imagine everyone would happily or even sullenly live with that. Brexit didn't get to be such a huge deal because no one cares much about it except on one side.
    You're too pessimistic. I believe that as the Hartlipudlians become more advanced they'll get used to slim attractive Europeans living amongst them.
    @Roger glad to have you back

    🤣🤣🍿🍿🍿
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I'm surprised there hasn't been one already. Quite often pressure to u turn builds so quickly it happens in a couple of days, but this story has been rumbling for a week at least.
    My Red Wall council being what it is we have 1 MP (new Tory) for the council area and a council that is Tory lead but NoC.

    Today after the Labour party sorted out Food parcels yesterday, the council announced support out of embarrassment

    https://twitter.com/PeteBarronMedia/status/1320274529193742342
    At this rate I guess no need for a u turn if local gov and business foots the bill, and no political capital gained in doing so. I still expect it though.
    They have been shown up for the lying duplicitous evil gits that they are. Fill their boots claiming expenses for their children, gorge on subsidised food and drink yet happy for poor children to starve. People in England should be ashamed to have voted for this bunch of uncaring crooked barstewards.
    morning malc

    are you being spun off ?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172



    No BigG. it is not. The idea behind restricting shopping to essential items makes perfect sense if the fire break has any chance to work. It has been implemented dreadfully.

    The issue of the fire break is essentially an issue of political choice. Labour, PC and the LDs in Wales are in favour, the Conservatives and Brexit Party are opposed to it. Drakeford's foolhardiness has allowed the opponents to seize the agenda and undermine the whole notion of the fire break. Ensuring the fire break fails confirms that Johnson's system (even if it is failing badly) is the only way forward, not only for England but for Wales and Scotland too.

    When Drakeford capitulates it will be like the January sales.

    Drakeford's supermarket policy is exactly the kind of policy you'd expect a remote and not very bright academic to come up with.

    Only someone with zero experience of real life as lived by very ordinary people would think it could possibly work.
  • Alistair said:

    I don't want to shock anyone here but perusing the NC early voting data I see that no less than Four Hundred and Twelve people of the age 120 years old have cast their early vote.

    What do you mean? There are 412 people who are 120 years old that have voted?
    A "null" date of birth defaulting to 1/1/1900.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    welshowl said:

    IanB2 said:


    Russell George, the Tory AM who helpfully suggested to Mark Drakeford his hugely unpopular supermarket policy, now denies it was anything to do with him.

    "I don't support the Welsh Government's approach to banning non-essential sales in Welsh shops, I’m the one that got the FM to admit his plans! Retail should be open, the National lockdown is wrong approach "

    I love the way Russell describes Drakeford implementing Russell's bad idea as getting "the FM to admit his plans! " Genius.

    Did he just raise the problem (of unhappy shopkeepers) or did he first float the implemented solution?
    Fair point, there is some wiggle room for Russell George AM.

    He raised the point that it was "unfair" on small shops that supermarkets were open and could sell items while independent clothing and hardware retailers were shut.

    Drakeford then said, in response to his question,

    "In the first set of restrictions people were reasonably understanding of the fact that supermarkets didn’t close all the things that they may have needed to. I don’t think that people will be as understanding this time and we will be making it clear to supermarkets that they are only able to open those parts of their business that provide essential goods to people and that will not include some of the things that Russell George mentioned which other people are prevented from selling."

    So, I think you are right.

    Russell George raised the problem, but the solution & its implementation is due to Drakeford.
    I don't think Russell George is smart enough to have realised the magnificence of the stunt he pulled off.

    Furious backpedaling on Monday from Drakeford no doubt. My take is George's point is fundamentally correct, but by over reacting the WG have brought the whole fire break idea crashing down around them, which is a shame. When Drakeford does U turn, every man and his dog will be queuing to browse for tat at Tesco.

    It is a big win for Russell George, the Welsh Tories, Boris and the English based media.
    Well I told the cat her cat litter was not essential this morning and asked her to hold on for another 16 days.

    The reply I got was wholly more sensible than anything the Welsh Govt is capable of.
    I would highly doubt that the pet isle where you will find pet litter next to pet food is deemed a non essential. Although what do I know? And I really can't be arsed to check up on it. I suspect you are just being silly though.

    It is an error which has been picked up and run with by the media and it is a massive defeat for Labour, not only in Wales, but for Starmer too.
    I genus don’t know if it is or not. I just felt a little light heartedness might help on a dull morning.

    At least the cat appreciated it.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    IanB2 said:


    Russell George, the Tory AM who helpfully suggested to Mark Drakeford his hugely unpopular supermarket policy, now denies it was anything to do with him.

    "I don't support the Welsh Government's approach to banning non-essential sales in Welsh shops, I’m the one that got the FM to admit his plans! Retail should be open, the National lockdown is wrong approach "

    I love the way Russell describes Drakeford implementing Russell's bad idea as getting "the FM to admit his plans! " Genius.

    Did he just raise the problem (of unhappy shopkeepers) or did he first float the implemented solution?
    Fair point, there is some wiggle room for Russell George AM.

    He raised the point that it was "unfair" on small shops that supermarkets were open and could sell items while independent clothing and hardware retailers were shut.

    Drakeford then said, in response to his question,

    "In the first set of restrictions people were reasonably understanding of the fact that supermarkets didn’t close all the things that they may have needed to. I don’t think that people will be as understanding this time and we will be making it clear to supermarkets that they are only able to open those parts of their business that provide essential goods to people and that will not include some of the things that Russell George mentioned which other people are prevented from selling."

    So, I think you are right.

    Russell George raised the problem, but the solution & its implementation is due to Drakeford.
    I don't think Russell George is smart enough to have realised the magnificence of the stunt he pulled off.

    Furious backpedaling on Monday from Drakeford no doubt. My take is George's point is fundamentally correct, but by over reacting the WG have brought the whole fire break idea crashing down around them, which is a shame. When Drakeford does U turn, every man and his dog will be queuing to browse for tat at Tesco.

    It is a big win for Russell George, the Welsh Tories, Boris and the English based media.
    And more than that, plain common sense
    No BigG. it is not. The idea behind restricting shopping to essential items makes perfect sense if the fire break has any chance to work. It has been implemented dreadfully.

    The issue of the fire break is essentially an issue of political choice. Labour, PC and the LDs in Wales are in favour, the Conservatives and Brexit Party are opposed to it. Drakeford's foolhardiness has allowed the opponents to seize the agenda and undermine the whole notion of the fire break. Ensuring the fire break fails confirms that Johnson's system (even if it is failing badly) is the only way forward, not only for England but for Wales and Scotland too.

    When Drakeford capitulates it will be like the January sales.
    To me it is common sense not to prevent customers shopping for products they normally buy in supermarkets creating a firestorm of anger

    However, I do agree this has been a disaster for Drakeford and remarkably my family members and their social media groups actually now associate him with this policy and he has become almost infamous overnight when he was virtually unknown before

    I do agree it is going to be near impossible to repeat a Wales only circuit breaker again
    They do say there is no such thing as bad publicity G.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I can't judge her personal contribution and can only look at the record of unfortunate disasters that have tended to follow her around.

    But the point is surely approaching where a strategic sacking is going to be attractive to HMG in order to let off some of the building steam. And since Dom is apparently unsackeable, her days may well be numbered..
    "Sack" is surely the wrong word for being moved to an even bigger job. Which is what will happen.
    She already has a bigger job, doesn't she? I thought she was going to run whatever nest of incompetent money grabbing Tory spivs the government were assembling to replace PHE.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,385
    Daley argues there are a lot of serious questions to be asked on the whole strategy over covid, but they don't get asked,

    "largely because the broadcast media journalists who dominate Downing Street press conferences are too busy scoring easy points about the failures of track and trace."
  • Car crash on Marr by Vaughan Getting, Wales Health Minister

    Trying and failing to justify their supermarket policy and even on the fire break itself
  • Scott_xP said:
    At least we have maintained good relations with China.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773
    Scott_xP said:
    There’s a spreading smirk across the face of this government, and the tone is set from the top. The motto on our prime minister’s coat of arms should read “Vide ne curem” — “See if I care”.

  • Roy_G_Biv said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    I don't want to shock anyone here but perusing the NC early voting data I see that no less than Four Hundred and Twelve people of the age 120 years old have cast their early vote.

    What do you mean? There are 412 people who are 120 years old that have voted?
    Yes. And one person who is 257 years old.
    120 year olds = they were born in 2000, wrote "00" for the year part of the date of birth, transcriber typed in 1900 instead of 2000.
    257 year old = person was born in 1963, wrote the loop of the 9 in a flat kind of way, transcriber misread it as a 7 and typed it in without thinking.
    And the software did not catch it because "agile" and "devops" and "minimum viable product".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Isn’t the argument, not that Johnson thinks that he will get a trade deal if Trump wins, but just that it will show that the “Trumplike” approach to politics/Govt (which is the nodeal option) will continue to be electorally successful?

    Trying to draw that analogy between UK and USA would be insane, surely? So that might be the answer.

    More likely, Johnson has finally realised that his choice is No Deal or basically the deal the EU had in mind all along, neither of which is pleasant to him. No Deal will be chaos, and the Deal is a pig, with a voucher to buy lipstick in a Welsh supermarket.

    Johnson is hopeless in "least bad option" decisions, presumably because he has ducked them all his life. Hence his rubbish response to the virus.

    Letting the US electorate take control of Brexit is totally in character for the PM.
    If Biden wins then Boris will find it difficult to get a FTA with the US with the internal markets bill so will need a deal with the EU to minimise its impact, even if Trump is re elected provided the Democrats retain at least the House then the same in effect applies as Pelosi will have a veto on any UK FTA.

    However I would not say the alternative is No Deal or the Deal the EU had in mind all along, that would be a deal which saw the UK stay in the SM and CU, something Boris is not going to do, a Deal which sees the UK compromise on state aid and the EU compromise on fishing which looks the likeliest outcome is more a genuine negotiation which led to another compromises from both sides for a Deal
    By when? There are only eight weeks left after the American election. You are no doubt right that a compromise will be found (we can't whizz up a new trawler fleet out of thin air) but will there first need to be an extension of the transition arrangements past January? The optics would not be good for Boris but the alternative might be worse, and perhaps the corona virus will provide political cover.
    The only things left to agree are fishing and state aid, once the necessary compromises on those were made the Deal could be completed relatively quickly
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998

    Alistair said:

    I don't want to shock anyone here but perusing the NC early voting data I see that no less than Four Hundred and Twelve people of the age 120 years old have cast their early vote.

    What do you mean? There are 412 people who are 120 years old that have voted?
    A "null" date of birth defaulting to 1/1/1900.
    Good shout
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited October 2020

    Scott_xP said:
    Starmer is going to think that being in Opposition is easy at this rate. All he has to do is get up in the morning, see what the latest self-inflicted own goal Johnson and Rasputin have shot that morning and then stick the knife in a bit further.

    To mix my metaphors.
    Jon Lewis, on international debut, blew Australia away with 4-24 including Michael Clarke for a first ball duck. A bewildered Simon Mann said, 'he must think this international cricket is a very easy game.'

    Yet Lewis only played that one T20I, 13 ODIs and 1 Test.

    If Starmer doesn't want to be like Jon Lewis, he needs to have the skills to adapt when Boris Johnson is hit by a bus and somebody vaguely sane and competent takes over. To paraphrase Cyclefree yesterday, can he do that?
  • kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I'm surprised there hasn't been one already. Quite often pressure to u turn builds so quickly it happens in a couple of days, but this story has been rumbling for a week at least.
    The second they cave into this nonsense then Rashford and his woke PR agency will start on the next thing.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,385

    Scott_xP said:
    At least we have maintained good relations with China.
    As the PM of, I think, Slovenia, said a few months ago: "you'll find out how cold it is outside the EU".
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:


    Russell George, the Tory AM who helpfully suggested to Mark Drakeford his hugely unpopular supermarket policy, now denies it was anything to do with him.

    "I don't support the Welsh Government's approach to banning non-essential sales in Welsh shops, I’m the one that got the FM to admit his plans! Retail should be open, the National lockdown is wrong approach "

    I love the way Russell describes Drakeford implementing Russell's bad idea as getting "the FM to admit his plans! " Genius.

    Did he just raise the problem (of unhappy shopkeepers) or did he first float the implemented solution?
    Fair point, there is some wiggle room for Russell George AM.

    He raised the point that it was "unfair" on small shops that supermarkets were open and could sell items while independent clothing and hardware retailers were shut.

    Drakeford then said, in response to his question,

    "In the first set of restrictions people were reasonably understanding of the fact that supermarkets didn’t close all the things that they may have needed to. I don’t think that people will be as understanding this time and we will be making it clear to supermarkets that they are only able to open those parts of their business that provide essential goods to people and that will not include some of the things that Russell George mentioned which other people are prevented from selling."

    So, I think you are right.

    Russell George raised the problem, but the solution & its implementation is due to Drakeford.
    I don't think Russell George is smart enough to have realised the magnificence of the stunt he pulled off.

    Furious backpedaling on Monday from Drakeford no doubt. My take is George's point is fundamentally correct, but by over reacting the WG have brought the whole fire break idea crashing down around them, which is a shame. When Drakeford does U turn, every man and his dog will be queuing to browse for tat at Tesco.

    It is a big win for Russell George, the Welsh Tories, Boris and the English based media.
    And more than that, plain common sense
    No BigG. it is not. The idea behind restricting shopping to essential items makes perfect sense if the fire break has any chance to work. It has been implemented dreadfully.

    The issue of the fire break is essentially an issue of political choice. Labour, PC and the LDs in Wales are in favour, the Conservatives and Brexit Party are opposed to it. Drakeford's foolhardiness has allowed the opponents to seize the agenda and undermine the whole notion of the fire break. Ensuring the fire break fails confirms that Johnson's system (even if it is failing badly) is the only way forward, not only for England but for Wales and Scotland too.

    When Drakeford capitulates it will be like the January sales.
    So that Tory won't only have landed a blow on the Welsh government, he'll have dented the credibility of the Starmer circuit-breaker and delivered a big win for local shopkeepers too? Truly strategic genius.
    Well it would be, if Johnson's system didn't appear to be so chaotic and according to the scientists unlikely to be enough.

    But hey, a win for Johnson is better copy than trying to control the pandemic properly.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    I don't want to shock anyone here but perusing the NC early voting data I see that no less than Four Hundred and Twelve people of the age 120 years old have cast their early vote.

    What do you mean? There are 412 people who are 120 years old that have voted?
    Yes. And one person who is 257 years old.
    120 year olds = they were born in 2000, wrote "00" for the year part of the date of birth, transcriber typed in 1900 instead of 2000.
    257 year old = person was born in 1963, wrote the loop of the 9 in a flat kind of way, transcriber misread it as a 7 and typed it in without thinking.
    That's the kind of incisive analysis that should make one proud to be a PB'er.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    edited October 2020
    isam said:

    @kinabalu

    Glad you enjoyed the Beach Boys songs. The beautiful genius behind the group is anti Trump, the less talented cousin who owns the rights to the name... is

    https://globalnews.ca/news/7405198/brian-wilson-beach-boys-donald-trump-fundraiser/

    Well that figures.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,385

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I can't judge her personal contribution and can only look at the record of unfortunate disasters that have tended to follow her around.

    But the point is surely approaching where a strategic sacking is going to be attractive to HMG in order to let off some of the building steam. And since Dom is apparently unsackeable, her days may well be numbered..
    "Sack" is surely the wrong word for being moved to an even bigger job. Which is what will happen.
    She already has a bigger job, doesn't she? I thought she was going to run whatever nest of incompetent money grabbing Tory spivs the government were assembling to replace PHE.
    That was last month. This month she is on track to replace Stevens as head of the whole NHS.
  • Why not? Whatever the merits of the case, the govt is losing the argument, badly.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1320293905393459206?s=20

    It is and totally unavoidable
    It is just terrible politics. Even if they wanted to do it on Conservative party ground and without extra cash, their response could have been "We have recently given £1bn to councils to support the most vulnerable. We think councils using this money to support children in poverty would be an excellent way to use those funds."

    Instead its talking about crack dens and brothels.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I'm surprised there hasn't been one already. Quite often pressure to u turn builds so quickly it happens in a couple of days, but this story has been rumbling for a week at least.
    The second they cave into this nonsense then Rashford and his woke PR agency will start on the next thing.
    If woke = doesn't think kids should go hungry then consider me woke.
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    I don't want to shock anyone here but perusing the NC early voting data I see that no less than Four Hundred and Twelve people of the age 120 years old have cast their early vote.

    What do you mean? There are 412 people who are 120 years old that have voted?
    Yes. And one person who is 257 years old.
    120 year olds = they were born in 2000, wrote "00" for the year part of the date of birth, transcriber typed in 1900 instead of 2000.
    257 year old = person was born in 1963, wrote the loop of the 9 in a flat kind of way, transcriber misread it as a 7 and typed it in without thinking.
    And the software did not catch it because "agile" and "devops" and "minimum viable product".
    If someone wrote software discarding dates of birth from 1900, they haven't written good software.
    "Minimum viable product" would tend towards not having any kind of checks at all on the date of birth.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,385



    No BigG. it is not. The idea behind restricting shopping to essential items makes perfect sense if the fire break has any chance to work. It has been implemented dreadfully.

    The issue of the fire break is essentially an issue of political choice. Labour, PC and the LDs in Wales are in favour, the Conservatives and Brexit Party are opposed to it. Drakeford's foolhardiness has allowed the opponents to seize the agenda and undermine the whole notion of the fire break. Ensuring the fire break fails confirms that Johnson's system (even if it is failing badly) is the only way forward, not only for England but for Wales and Scotland too.

    When Drakeford capitulates it will be like the January sales.

    Drakeford's supermarket policy is exactly the kind of policy you'd expect a remote and not very bright academic to come up with.

    Only someone with zero experience of real life as lived by very ordinary people would think it could possibly work.
    His post-docs do his shopping for him. :smiley:
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    IanB2 said:


    Russell George, the Tory AM who helpfully suggested to Mark Drakeford his hugely unpopular supermarket policy, now denies it was anything to do with him.

    "I don't support the Welsh Government's approach to banning non-essential sales in Welsh shops, I’m the one that got the FM to admit his plans! Retail should be open, the National lockdown is wrong approach "

    I love the way Russell describes Drakeford implementing Russell's bad idea as getting "the FM to admit his plans! " Genius.

    Did he just raise the problem (of unhappy shopkeepers) or did he first float the implemented solution?
    Fair point, there is some wiggle room for Russell George AM.

    He raised the point that it was "unfair" on small shops that supermarkets were open and could sell items while independent clothing and hardware retailers were shut.

    Drakeford then said, in response to his question,

    "In the first set of restrictions people were reasonably understanding of the fact that supermarkets didn’t close all the things that they may have needed to. I don’t think that people will be as understanding this time and we will be making it clear to supermarkets that they are only able to open those parts of their business that provide essential goods to people and that will not include some of the things that Russell George mentioned which other people are prevented from selling."

    So, I think you are right.

    Russell George raised the problem, but the solution & its implementation is due to Drakeford.
    I don't think Russell George is smart enough to have realised the magnificence of the stunt he pulled off.

    Furious backpedaling on Monday from Drakeford no doubt. My take is George's point is fundamentally correct, but by over reacting the WG have brought the whole fire break idea crashing down around them, which is a shame. When Drakeford does U turn, every man and his dog will be queuing to browse for tat at Tesco.

    It is a big win for Russell George, the Welsh Tories, Boris and the English based media.
    And more than that, plain common sense
    No BigG. it is not. The idea behind restricting shopping to essential items makes perfect sense if the fire break has any chance to work. It has been implemented dreadfully.

    The issue of the fire break is essentially an issue of political choice. Labour, PC and the LDs in Wales are in favour, the Conservatives and Brexit Party are opposed to it. Drakeford's foolhardiness has allowed the opponents to seize the agenda and undermine the whole notion of the fire break. Ensuring the fire break fails confirms that Johnson's system (even if it is failing badly) is the only way forward, not only for England but for Wales and Scotland too.

    When Drakeford capitulates it will be like the January sales.
    Ah, Drakeford ...

    I took him to a supermarket
    I don't know why
    But I had to start it somewhere
    So it started there
    I said, "Pretend you've got no money"
    He just laughed and said
    "Oh you're so funny"
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154



    No BigG. it is not. The idea behind restricting shopping to essential items makes perfect sense if the fire break has any chance to work. It has been implemented dreadfully.

    The issue of the fire break is essentially an issue of political choice. Labour, PC and the LDs in Wales are in favour, the Conservatives and Brexit Party are opposed to it. Drakeford's foolhardiness has allowed the opponents to seize the agenda and undermine the whole notion of the fire break. Ensuring the fire break fails confirms that Johnson's system (even if it is failing badly) is the only way forward, not only for England but for Wales and Scotland too.

    When Drakeford capitulates it will be like the January sales.

    Drakeford's supermarket policy is exactly the kind of policy you'd expect a remote and not very bright academic to come up with.

    Only someone with zero experience of real life as lived by very ordinary people would think it could possibly work.
    His post-docs do his shopping for him. :smiley:
    A postdoc is paid. It's the doctoral students that do the menial work, e.g. shopping, cleaning, cooking, teaching...
  • kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I'm surprised there hasn't been one already. Quite often pressure to u turn builds so quickly it happens in a couple of days, but this story has been rumbling for a week at least.
    The second they cave into this nonsense then Rashford and his woke PR agency will start on the next thing.
    Free school meals during the Easter holiday? The government will never see that coming!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773
    welshowl said:

    IanB2 said:


    Russell George, the Tory AM who helpfully suggested to Mark Drakeford his hugely unpopular supermarket policy, now denies it was anything to do with him.

    "I don't support the Welsh Government's approach to banning non-essential sales in Welsh shops, I’m the one that got the FM to admit his plans! Retail should be open, the National lockdown is wrong approach "

    I love the way Russell describes Drakeford implementing Russell's bad idea as getting "the FM to admit his plans! " Genius.

    Did he just raise the problem (of unhappy shopkeepers) or did he first float the implemented solution?
    Fair point, there is some wiggle room for Russell George AM.

    He raised the point that it was "unfair" on small shops that supermarkets were open and could sell items while independent clothing and hardware retailers were shut.

    Drakeford then said, in response to his question,

    "In the first set of restrictions people were reasonably understanding of the fact that supermarkets didn’t close all the things that they may have needed to. I don’t think that people will be as understanding this time and we will be making it clear to supermarkets that they are only able to open those parts of their business that provide essential goods to people and that will not include some of the things that Russell George mentioned which other people are prevented from selling."

    So, I think you are right.

    Russell George raised the problem, but the solution & its implementation is due to Drakeford.
    I don't think Russell George is smart enough to have realised the magnificence of the stunt he pulled off.

    Furious backpedaling on Monday from Drakeford no doubt. My take is George's point is fundamentally correct, but by over reacting the WG have brought the whole fire break idea crashing down around them, which is a shame. When Drakeford does U turn, every man and his dog will be queuing to browse for tat at Tesco.

    It is a big win for Russell George, the Welsh Tories, Boris and the English based media.
    Well I told the cat her cat litter was not essential this morning and asked her to hold on for another 16 days.

    The reply I got was wholly more sensible than anything the Welsh Govt is capable of.
    Alternatives include recycled paper pellets, corn pellets, shredded coconut shells, wood shavings, a mix of dish soap + shredded paper + baking soda + water, sand, dried tea leaves, wood pellets, rabbit food, puppy pads, or the garden....or you can even train a cat to perch over a human toilet. Apparently.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    So tomorrow morning Drakeford goes on TV, 'sort of' apologises and says that he's taking notice of what the people of Wales have said about this particular aspect of the lockdown. What's not to like?
    OK, he should have anticipated, but IF that's what he does, I suspect he'd get a great deal of respect.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited October 2020



    No BigG. it is not. The idea behind restricting shopping to essential items makes perfect sense if the fire break has any chance to work. It has been implemented dreadfully.

    The issue of the fire break is essentially an issue of political choice. Labour, PC and the LDs in Wales are in favour, the Conservatives and Brexit Party are opposed to it. Drakeford's foolhardiness has allowed the opponents to seize the agenda and undermine the whole notion of the fire break. Ensuring the fire break fails confirms that Johnson's system (even if it is failing badly) is the only way forward, not only for England but for Wales and Scotland too.

    When Drakeford capitulates it will be like the January sales.

    Drakeford's supermarket policy is exactly the kind of policy you'd expect a remote and not very bright academic to come up with.

    Only someone with zero experience of real life as lived by very ordinary people would think it could possibly work.
    His post-docs do his shopping for him. :smiley:
    He'd have to be competent enough to win a grant to have postdocs. More like his grad students do the shopping. :) They are the ultimate serfs in Universities.

    (Actually, I do know a professor who gets her grad students to pick her kids up from school. And another who who uses his grad student to look after his pets at home while he is travelling.)

    EDIT; beaten to the punch by YDoethur .. again :)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    On topic

    I believe the chicanery suggested will win Trump his re-election. I am looking at swing states where the GOP hold the legislature and can influence the result. On that basis it doesn't look bright for Biden
  • eek said:

    https://twitter.com/SelaineSaxby/status/1319755372857622528

    I feel so sorry for these poor Conservative victims. All they did was vote against feeding hungry children. And in Selaine's case berated businesses for showing compassion and charity. Someone needs to Step In and tell these monsters in the British Public to shut up. Someone well liked and respected. Like Laurence Fox.

    Or Nigel Farage - who got the issue immediately.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1319172209403961346
    No, I meant that someone like Laurence Fox could defend these poor Tory MP victims by telling the public that they should STFU about starving kids and focus on the Real Issues like cancel culture.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,853
    I'm keeping my Biden supremacy bet open at 28
  • kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I'm surprised there hasn't been one already. Quite often pressure to u turn builds so quickly it happens in a couple of days, but this story has been rumbling for a week at least.
    The second they cave into this nonsense then Rashford and his woke PR agency will start on the next thing.
    If woke = doesn't think kids should go hungry then consider me woke.
    The families already get benefit money for food. Maybe we could do this and scrap all child benefits instead as the money obviously makes no difference to whether they get fed or not.

    The feature creep for schools is ridiculous, they should be for educating children (for free) not a social service.
    Now they have to feed kids not only during term time, but during holidays too.

    They'll have to give presents at Christmas to kids with feckless parents soon as well.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226

    Scott_xP said:
    We will be alone, but still hold all the cards. Perhaps we can play Solitaire?
    We have already agreed a trade deal with Japan
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,890

    We will be alone, but still hold all the cards. Perhaps we can play Solitaire?

    BoZo would lose...
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I'm surprised there hasn't been one already. Quite often pressure to u turn builds so quickly it happens in a couple of days, but this story has been rumbling for a week at least.
    The second they cave into this nonsense then Rashford and his woke PR agency will start on the next thing.
    Good for him then if it’s something that needs doing, why is it nonsense, just as well the world isn’t full of right wing bigots like you.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,076
    edited October 2020

    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/SelaineSaxby/status/1319755372857622528

    I feel so sorry for these poor Conservative victims. All they did was vote against feeding hungry children. And in Selaine's case berated businesses for showing compassion and charity. Someone needs to Step In and tell these monsters in the British Public to shut up. Someone well liked and respected. Like Laurence Fox.

    Or Nigel Farage - who got the issue immediately.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1319172209403961346
    No, I meant that someone like Laurence Fox could defend these poor Tory MP victims by telling the public that they should STFU about starving kids and focus on the Real Issues like cancel culture.
    You mean the story they keep on talking about while wondering why neither the press nor anyone on social media cares.
  • So tomorrow morning Drakeford goes on TV, 'sort of' apologises and says that he's taking notice of what the people of Wales have said about this particular aspect of the lockdown. What's not to like?
    OK, he should have anticipated, but IF that's what he does, I suspect he'd get a great deal of respect.

    To be honest from being a virtual unknown to many in Wales, Drakeford has in one stroke become infamous across Wales and made it virtually impossible to do a fire break again
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773

    Scott_xP said:
    Starmer is going to think that being in Opposition is easy at this rate. All he has to do is get up in the morning, see what the latest self-inflicted own goal Johnson and Rasputin have shot that morning and then stick the knife in a bit further.

    To mix my metaphors.
    'tis working for Joe.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    And interesting account from Wisconsin, which suggests that the forecast of a Democratic win is likely correct.
    https://www.newyorker.com/news/campaign-chronicles/will-trumps-law-and-order-message-work-in-wisconsins-white-suburbs

    The article is more nuanced than that, it suggests there are more Biden signs than there were Hillary signs in Wisconsin but also more Trump supporters in the key counties than there were in 2016 too, with some who left their ballots blank last time at the presidential level voting for Trump this time
    You must take your consolations where you can.

    As an aside, it rather neatly delineates the shy Biden voter, too.
  • nichomar said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I'm surprised there hasn't been one already. Quite often pressure to u turn builds so quickly it happens in a couple of days, but this story has been rumbling for a week at least.
    The second they cave into this nonsense then Rashford and his woke PR agency will start on the next thing.
    Good for him then if it’s something that needs doing, why is it nonsense, just as well the world isn’t full of right wing bigots like you.
    Millionaire tax avoiders making poor workers pay more tax to give even more money to the feckless.

    You'd have to be a complete bigot not to agree with that.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    MattW said:

    malcolmg said:

    MattW said:

    FPT:

    welshowl said:

    We have tended to mirror France, with a lag. The Government needs to get a grip on this now - but I fear yet again they will do nothing and in three weeks we'll be in another hole.

    How’s old Drakeford going then? He has the power to be a shining example. If whatever you want.

    Reality - He’s done bugger all different for months till Friday when he had a total brain fart and is currently just about public enemy no 1 here.
    Drakeford has done something decisive, whether you agree with it or not the reality is that the only thing that got cases down in the UK was a full lockdown.

    BoJo is doing nothing - and cases are still going on. He needs to implement a lockdown to stop us turning into France.
    I assume you live in a tier 1 location? Otherwise I don’t understand how you think the government is doing nothing. You may think we need to do more. That’s your right, but to categorise the restrictions on a huge swath of England as doing nothing is just ridiculous. I was lucky enough to meet with 3 of my extended family today for a nice lunch at my parents house Many in England can’t do that.
    What CHB means when he says the Government is doing nothing is that they are not doing what he thinks they should.

    And what he means when he says Drakeford is decisive is that he has decided to do something that CHB approves of.

    Even if he wants to continue to frame the Government as doing nothing, then he can’t also say that is indecisive. It is clearly a decision to do nothing.

    In summary the Government has decisively decided on a three tier approach, which is both something and decisive.
    +1 to @Nemtynakht.

    This week the R number has started to move back down for the country as a whole, which was before any impact of Starmer's politicking, Burnham's self-promotion, or Drakeford's petty-authoritarian flappery.

    Can't comment on chippy Nicky - I've been ignoring her.

    16 October - 1.3-1.5 range.
    23 October - 1.2-1.4 range,

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54567867
    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk

    Which would seem to indicate that the existing - much maligned by those who gain by such maligning - measures are actually having an impact.

    Let's not mistake politics for something that is actually needed.
    Little Englander posts crap, yawn. I am sure Scottish FM is really concerned that a bellend like you is ignoring her.
    Wouldn't know Malc - been ignoring her.

    If you have something useful to say about the Scottish numbers before you vanish up your Rs again, I'd love to hear it.
    Well numbers are not great in Scotland for sure, we have our share of nutjobs here as well. Currently Scotland is about 60% daily rate of London. Overall rates are about 7.5% of England and same for deaths. Certainly far from perfect but nothing to learn from England. Scottish Government is making the best of a bad situation and trying their best, they at least stay consistent and provide clarity even if people do not like it that much.
    Hopefully the new 5 tier system will be considered and continue the reasonable job they are doing. It all falls down where we have to rely on the Westminster government as they control the money, they put in place UK labs etc that are run by their chums and are crap. They give carte blanche for England but refuse to confirm they will fund Scotland under the same terms so government has no clue what funding they will get , and they refuse to let them borrow themselves.
    So going as well as it can where Scottish government has control, same clusterfcuk where we are forced to rely on Westminster cockups/graft.
  • On topic, if the US election is clearly corrupt what should the UK response be? Will those who took a very strong moral stance against China do the same with the US, or will they flip to pragmatism? Or denial?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I'm surprised there hasn't been one already. Quite often pressure to u turn builds so quickly it happens in a couple of days, but this story has been rumbling for a week at least.
    The second they cave into this nonsense then Rashford and his woke PR agency will start on the next thing.
    Good for him then if it’s something that needs doing, why is it nonsense, just as well the world isn’t full of right wing bigots like you.
    Millionaire tax avoiders making poor workers pay more tax to give even more money to the feckless.

    You'd have to be a complete bigot not to agree with that.
    Name names, Amazon etc Fine but you are actually implying footballers Do be up front and name them.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:


    Russell George, the Tory AM who helpfully suggested to Mark Drakeford his hugely unpopular supermarket policy, now denies it was anything to do with him.

    "I don't support the Welsh Government's approach to banning non-essential sales in Welsh shops, I’m the one that got the FM to admit his plans! Retail should be open, the National lockdown is wrong approach "

    I love the way Russell describes Drakeford implementing Russell's bad idea as getting "the FM to admit his plans! " Genius.

    Did he just raise the problem (of unhappy shopkeepers) or did he first float the implemented solution?
    Fair point, there is some wiggle room for Russell George AM.

    He raised the point that it was "unfair" on small shops that supermarkets were open and could sell items while independent clothing and hardware retailers were shut.

    Drakeford then said, in response to his question,

    "In the first set of restrictions people were reasonably understanding of the fact that supermarkets didn’t close all the things that they may have needed to. I don’t think that people will be as understanding this time and we will be making it clear to supermarkets that they are only able to open those parts of their business that provide essential goods to people and that will not include some of the things that Russell George mentioned which other people are prevented from selling."

    So, I think you are right.

    Russell George raised the problem, but the solution & its implementation is due to Drakeford.
    I don't think Russell George is smart enough to have realised the magnificence of the stunt he pulled off.

    Furious backpedaling on Monday from Drakeford no doubt. My take is George's point is fundamentally correct, but by over reacting the WG have brought the whole fire break idea crashing down around them, which is a shame. When Drakeford does U turn, every man and his dog will be queuing to browse for tat at Tesco.

    It is a big win for Russell George, the Welsh Tories, Boris and the English based media.
    And more than that, plain common sense
    No BigG. it is not. The idea behind restricting shopping to essential items makes perfect sense if the fire break has any chance to work. It has been implemented dreadfully.

    The issue of the fire break is essentially an issue of political choice. Labour, PC and the LDs in Wales are in favour, the Conservatives and Brexit Party are opposed to it. Drakeford's foolhardiness has allowed the opponents to seize the agenda and undermine the whole notion of the fire break. Ensuring the fire break fails confirms that Johnson's system (even if it is failing badly) is the only way forward, not only for England but for Wales and Scotland too.

    When Drakeford capitulates it will be like the January sales.
    So that Tory won't only have landed a blow on the Welsh government, he'll have dented the credibility of the Starmer circuit-breaker and delivered a big win for local shopkeepers too? Truly strategic genius.
    Well it would be, if Johnson's system didn't appear to be so chaotic and according to the scientists unlikely to be enough.

    But hey, a win for Johnson is better copy than trying to control the pandemic properly.
    We all lose, true. I was sympathetic to Drakeford’s plea last week to try and stop Tier 3ers turning up in Tenby or other low rate areas, I could buy into his Welsh national lockdown for a couple of weeks, if he really felt it would help, especially as it combines with the half term break ( though it stuffs business in West Wales of course even though they have low rates), but the utter ineptitude on display since Friday has blown it across much of the populace, I believe, and ultimately that’s not good.

    It seems each and every govt is finding its own individual route to the dog house.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,076
    edited October 2020
    Scott_xP said:

    We will be alone, but still hold all the cards. Perhaps we can play Solitaire?

    BoZo would lose...
    I believe MS Solitaire has revealed that all hands are winnable except for 1 particular combination..

    Bozo being Bozo he would lose all the other hands and find a way (by cheating) of winning that combination.
This discussion has been closed.