Presumably, this Covid Research Group will be filled with eminent virologists, sociologists, mental health professionals, epidemiologists and the like. Who will bring a wide range of expert opinions and detailed peer reviewed research on how to deal with this dreadful disease? Or right wing blowhards with an agenda to push? I await with anticipation.
Whatever happened to that other ERG nutter with the French sounding name, seems to have disappeared off the face off the earth, why the sudden disappearing act
Hold that stampede to pay Sweden's taxes. And introduce their employment laws. Oh and sick pay... Continues for several pages...
A minor entertainment in the Covid shitshow is all those Sweden Has Fallen lads who a year ago were pleasuring themselves senseless over vids on Youtube by 'citizen journalists' from the Isis ghettos of Malmo becoming Sverige fanbois.
Some polling out for the US today. USC has Biden on +10, +12, +10.
Trafalgar has 3 new polls out, which I suspect will be discussed here, show: FL Trump +2 AZ Trump +3 MI Trump +2 So I suspect not a surprise to anyone.
A single poll for SD Trump +11
Oh and since I posted some high Texas polling for Biden. University of Texas at Tyler. Biden +3
I personally am putting that one in with Trafalgar as outlier.
Trafalgar of course being the outlier that was right in being the only pollster to have Trump ahead in PA and Michigan in 2016, they have Biden ahead in PA now and more narrowly in Wisconsin and Trump narrowly ahead in Michigan so are still showing a small swing to Biden but not enough of a swing to win the EC which is plausible.
Survey Monkey in another Texas poll has Trump up by 4%, if Biden wins a landslide he could win Texas but only in that scenario
Polls coducted over a period as long as a month are unlikely to be meaningful.
Actually not true, there's been some polls over a similar timeframe that got the results spot on, it's all about getting a representative sample.
Nevertheless there has to be a serious possibility that the early sampling would now be out of date. Few would take notice of polls conducted over a 6 month period.
Some polling out for the US today. USC has Biden on +10, +12, +10.
Trafalgar has 3 new polls out, which I suspect will be discussed here, show: FL Trump +2 AZ Trump +3 MI Trump +2 So I suspect not a surprise to anyone.
A single poll for SD Trump +11
Oh and since I posted some high Texas polling for Biden. University of Texas at Tyler. Biden +3
I personally am putting that one in with Trafalgar as outlier.
Trafalgar of course being the outlier that was right in being the only pollster to have Trump ahead in PA and Michigan in 2016, they have Biden ahead in PA now and more narrowly in Wisconsin and Trump narrowly ahead in Michigan so are still showing a small swing to Biden but not enough of a swing to win the EC which is plausible.
Survey Monkey in another Texas poll has Trump up by 4%, if Biden wins a landslide he could win Texas but only in that scenario
Polls coducted over a period as long as a month are unlikely to be meaningful.
Actually not true, there's been some polls over a similar timeframe that got the results spot on, it's all about getting a representative sample.
Nevertheless there has to be a serious possibility that the early sampling would now be out of date. Few would take notice of polls conducted over a 6 month period.
But that's not a six month long poll.
The main point is that over time opinion will change. The 1970 election persuaded UK pollsters that relying on data more than a few days old was unwise - and likely to lead to a lot of egg on faces.
Some polling out for the US today. USC has Biden on +10, +12, +10.
Trafalgar has 3 new polls out, which I suspect will be discussed here, show: FL Trump +2 AZ Trump +3 MI Trump +2 So I suspect not a surprise to anyone.
A single poll for SD Trump +11
Oh and since I posted some high Texas polling for Biden. University of Texas at Tyler. Biden +3
I personally am putting that one in with Trafalgar as outlier.
Trafalgar of course being the outlier that was right in being the only pollster to have Trump ahead in PA and Michigan in 2016, they have Biden ahead in PA now and more narrowly in Wisconsin and Trump narrowly ahead in Michigan so are still showing a small swing to Biden but not enough of a swing to win the EC which is plausible.
Survey Monkey in another Texas poll has Trump up by 4%, if Biden wins a landslide he could win Texas but only in that scenario
Polls coducted over a period as long as a month are unlikely to be meaningful.
Actually not true, there's been some polls over a similar timeframe that got the results spot on, it's all about getting a representative sample.
Nevertheless there has to be a serious possibility that the early sampling would now be out of date. Few would take notice of polls conducted over a 6 month period.
Some polling out for the US today. USC has Biden on +10, +12, +10.
Trafalgar has 3 new polls out, which I suspect will be discussed here, show: FL Trump +2 AZ Trump +3 MI Trump +2 So I suspect not a surprise to anyone.
A single poll for SD Trump +11
Oh and since I posted some high Texas polling for Biden. University of Texas at Tyler. Biden +3
I personally am putting that one in with Trafalgar as outlier.
Trafalgar of course being the outlier that was right in being the only pollster to have Trump ahead in PA and Michigan in 2016, they have Biden ahead in PA now and more narrowly in Wisconsin and Trump narrowly ahead in Michigan so are still showing a small swing to Biden but not enough of a swing to win the EC which is plausible.
Survey Monkey in another Texas poll has Trump up by 4%, if Biden wins a landslide he could win Texas but only in that scenario
Polls coducted over a period as long as a month are unlikely to be meaningful.
Actually not true, there's been some polls over a similar timeframe that got the results spot on, it's all about getting a representative sample.
Nevertheless there has to be a serious possibility that the early sampling would now be out of date. Few would take notice of polls conducted over a 6 month period.
But that's not a six month long poll.
The main point that over time opinion will change. The 1970 election persuaded UK pollsters that relying on data more than a few days old was unwise - and likely to lead to a lot of egg on faces.
Things have moved on from 1970, and this is America.
Trafalgar have actually got some cross tabs for their Michigan poll .
Absolutely laughable ! They have Trump winning 18 to 24 year olds and only a 4 point lead for Biden in the 25 to 34 age range and then have blacks giving Trump 30% of the vote .
We also have a poll of New York's 24th congressional district by Siena College (rated "A-" on 538). This was won by the GOP in 2018 (during the "blue wave") by 5.2%.
Presumably, this Covid Research Group will be filled with eminent virologists, sociologists, mental health professionals, epidemiologists and the like. Who will bring a wide range of expert opinions and detailed peer reviewed research on how to deal with this dreadful disease? Or right wing blowhards with an agenda to push? I await with curiosity. Pity there isn't a betting market on it.
McEvoy ounds more likely to split the opposition vote than defeat Drakeford to me.
Next years Welsh, Scottish and English local elections look interesting, but I suspect Welsh Labour will hang on. The opposition are simply too split.
I expect that too. Labour will probably hang on. My only point is that there is huge reservoir of people who don't vote. And if they did vote, even in small numbers, they would have a big effect. And that day will come.
Also, though he may suffer the fate of independents, you can see McEvoy's real gift.
"Poverty don't shop on the internet" is just a brilliant slogan -- it is a millstone to hang round Drakeford's neck.
Surely such a brilliant slogan should be 'poverty doesn't' rather than 'poverty don't'? Sounds fairly illiterate to me.
Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.
If you got 30 per cent of them to vote for you, then you'd win the election.
There is a vast untapped group of voters in the WA elections, that is my only point.
Why would they suddenly turnout next year though, when turnout in elections other than General Elections is perennially low?
Gosh, it is hard work.
Voters turn out in an election when they have been given a reason to vote.
That could be because they have seen an inspiring politician (but this is Wales and they are all pretty crap).
Or it could be because someone has royally pissed them off
Yeah, but you have been saying that they have been pissed off for years.
They also need to have someone to vote for. Negative voting is not part of the system. Who are they going to vote for instead?
Sigh. There are parties other than Tory or Labour, two corrupt cheeks of the same bulging arse.
As I have pointed out Drakeford has a highly marginal seat against a populist maverick opponent who is busy making hay while the sun shines.
McEvoy: " it's not about toasters, books, it's about keeping people on board with what's going to be a long drawn out winter, to protect our NHS. Push people too far, and they rebel. It's called reactive abuse. We live in Wales. Know your people. Poverty don't shop on the Internet."
There's the mistake in pitiful glory.
There it is -- KNOW YOUR PEOPLE. POVERTY DON"T SHOP ON THE INTERNET.
It is true Drakeford has a marginal seat in Cardiff West, beating McEvoy who stood for Plaid in 2016 by just over a thousand votes with the Tory candidate back in 3rd place around 6 thousand votes behind.
But regardless of Drakeford's mis-steps over this, I don't think he loses to McEvoy in May.
Why? Well it's a long time in the current world to May and this spat over essentials in supermarkets won't be much of a story then in my view.
Secondly, McEvoy was kicked out by Plaid and will be standing under his WNP banner. He's a popular politician with some in the constituency for sure, but others equally despise him, both Labour and Plaid voters.
Plaid will stand and split the nationalist vote with him which will mean an uphill battle. The electorate in many parts of the seat hasn't got more Tory either. If anything it's going more Plaid as the Welsh speaking middle class get priced out of Pontcanna and continue to move into Canton.
McEvoy will poll well in Fairwater and Ely, the less affluent parts of the constituency amongst those who vote. He won't take the seat though and as he's no longer Plaid won't get a list seat either.
Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".
My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.
I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.
The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.
I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.
Surely these people now on 2.9k from 4 are saving a fortune by never going out?
Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves and that was the most generous scenario. Make that a lower income couple who had income of just £1800 each beforehand, they were on £1440 under the 80% system, now on just £1200 so post tax they've gone from £3k to just £2.2k as a household.
They've done nothing wrong, they've followed the rules and they're getting shat on by a chancellor who doesn't know how the other half live and has no contact with them. All he can see are numbers on a spreadsheet and it's wrong.
"Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves... "
Obviously, that's what the £2900 goes on. Times are hard, this is a nightmare we can barely have made up. I dont see the govt paying people 2/3rds pf their wages to stay at home as that insufferable really.
I agree in the circumstances the government in my opinion has got this about right.
Covid created this crisis and most governments are struggling to protect incomes but also fight the disease
I just do not see how it is possible even to pay 80% of wages until next March.
Of course the public sector continue to receive their pay and benefits alongside pensioners who at present are to be awarded a 2.5% increase next April, while the private sector and large numbers of its employees pay a huge penalty
Everyone should be asking just how that is fair and of course how any future government is able to afford the public sector and pensions is the 'elephant in the room'
Maybe we should furlough the public sector, just to keep you happy? We can always do with less coppers, nurses, firefighters, bin collectors and the like.
Biden, somewhat surprisingly, has very much impressed me on the upside, as the campaign has progressed. Starting out from an anyone but Trump position, I now think he is exactly the right candidate to ensure that the USA and the world can start to heal after the miserable Trump years.
Some polling out for the US today. USC has Biden on +10, +12, +10.
Trafalgar has 3 new polls out, which I suspect will be discussed here, show: FL Trump +2 AZ Trump +3 MI Trump +2 So I suspect not a surprise to anyone.
A single poll for SD Trump +11
Oh and since I posted some high Texas polling for Biden. University of Texas at Tyler. Biden +3
I personally am putting that one in with Trafalgar as outlier.
Trafalgar of course being the outlier that was right in being the only pollster to have Trump ahead in PA and Michigan in 2016, they have Biden ahead in PA now and more narrowly in Wisconsin and Trump narrowly ahead in Michigan so are still showing a small swing to Biden but not enough of a swing to win the EC which is plausible.
Survey Monkey in another Texas poll has Trump up by 4%, if Biden wins a landslide he could win Texas but only in that scenario
Polls coducted over a period as long as a month are unlikely to be meaningful.
Actually not true, there's been some polls over a similar timeframe that got the results spot on, it's all about getting a representative sample.
Nevertheless there has to be a serious possibility that the early sampling would now be out of date. Few would take notice of polls conducted over a 6 month period.
Some polling out for the US today. USC has Biden on +10, +12, +10.
Trafalgar has 3 new polls out, which I suspect will be discussed here, show: FL Trump +2 AZ Trump +3 MI Trump +2 So I suspect not a surprise to anyone.
A single poll for SD Trump +11
Oh and since I posted some high Texas polling for Biden. University of Texas at Tyler. Biden +3
I personally am putting that one in with Trafalgar as outlier.
Trafalgar of course being the outlier that was right in being the only pollster to have Trump ahead in PA and Michigan in 2016, they have Biden ahead in PA now and more narrowly in Wisconsin and Trump narrowly ahead in Michigan so are still showing a small swing to Biden but not enough of a swing to win the EC which is plausible.
Survey Monkey in another Texas poll has Trump up by 4%, if Biden wins a landslide he could win Texas but only in that scenario
Polls coducted over a period as long as a month are unlikely to be meaningful.
Actually not true, there's been some polls over a similar timeframe that got the results spot on, it's all about getting a representative sample.
Nevertheless there has to be a serious possibility that the early sampling would now be out of date. Few would take notice of polls conducted over a 6 month period.
But that's not a six month long poll.
The main point that over time opinion will change. The 1970 election persuaded UK pollsters that relying on data more than a few days old was unwise - and likely to lead to a lot of egg on faces.
Things have moved on from 1970, and this is America.
Not really comparable.
Opinion can shift a fair bit over four weeks. The last weekend of the 2000 election saw quite a shift to Gore.
We also have a poll of New York's 24th congressional district by Siena College (rated "A-" on 538). This was won by the GOP in 2018 (during the "blue wave") by 5.2%.
Trafalgar have actually got some cross tabs for their Michigan poll .
Absolutely laughable ! They have Trump winning 18 to 24 year olds and only a 4 point lead for Biden in the 25 to 34 age range and then have blacks giving Trump 30% of the vote .
This was a feature of their 2016 polling they released cross tabs for. Trump led by double digits amongst 18-24 year olds in all their 2016 polls.
Hays went barely for Trump in 2016 after being a conservative area for years. In 2018, it went for O'Rourke strongly. If you want to look at an article on its structure, this is quite useful:
One question is who is fuelling the voting in Hays. If it is students, good for Biden as suggests younger voters are turning out. If it is not, then maybe good for Trump.
Presumably, this Covid Research Group will be filled with eminent virologists, sociologists, mental health professionals, epidemiologists and the like. Who will bring a wide range of expert opinions and detailed peer reviewed research on how to deal with this dreadful disease? Or right wing blowhards with an agenda to push? I await with curiosity. Pity there isn't a betting market on it.
Trump is definitely US Corbyn whilst Biden is Bozo, it is the best of a bad lot choice for the electorate.
Boris Johnson & Joe Biden have VERY little in common. For one thing, Biden has decades of experience AND accomplishments as top legislative leader.
BoJo? Not so much. Boris is a career journalist (not a very good one) and TV clown (much better).
BoJo = Trumpsky. In US we really do NOT have equivalent to Corbyn - thank God!
Find it fascinating folks who are intelligent BUT who know next to nothing about details of Biden's career,are so quick to write him off a lightweight.
That is, if they don't swallow the "demented vegetable" hogwash. Apparently unaware they are parroting BernieBro-Putinist progaganda. Which (as you may have noticed) have gone down like a lead balloon on THIS side of the Atlantic (and Pacific).
Trump is definitely US Corbyn whilst Biden is Bozo, it is the best of a bad lot choice for the electorate.
Biden really isn’t. He has quite a talented team around him, and decades of political capital to draw on. He also gives a damn. Rather older than would be ideal, sure.
That either of them, or their situations, share characteristics with the situation of the US candidates doesn't mean to say they are identical.
Just not seeing the Johnson/Biden comparison at all. Other than that Biden is about to win an election, too.
It is fairly clear who could vote for Trump if sane so only choice is Biden, similarly who could vote for Corbyn, hence Bozo winning.
I didn’t vote for either of them. If I lived in the US, I’d be phone banking for Biden.
Trump is definitely US Corbyn whilst Biden is Bozo, it is the best of a bad lot choice for the electorate.
Biden really isn’t. He has quite a talented team around him, and decades of political capital to draw on. He also gives a damn. Rather older than would be ideal, sure.
That either of them, or their situations, share characteristics with the situation of the US candidates doesn't mean to say they are identical.
Just not seeing the Johnson/Biden comparison at all. Other than that Biden is about to win an election, too.
It is fairly clear who could vote for Trump if sane so only choice is Biden, similarly who could vote for Corbyn, hence Bozo winning.
I didn’t vote for either of them. If I lived in the US, I’d be phone banking for Biden.
True, there is the draw a big penis on your ballot paper option
Comments
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1320360499071078400?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1320357684542136320?s=20
If they have then you're looking at Lord Wellington in 1834, who was a Tory, not to be confused with the Conservative Party.
Not lying around for a few months "injured".
Good managers don't tolerate that kind of shirking.
Carlo lied to me, just to cover up Jordan Pickford's assault-cum-attempted murder of Virgil Van Dijk.
Not really comparable.
Absolutely laughable ! They have Trump winning 18 to 24 year olds and only a 4 point lead for Biden in the 25 to 34 age range and then have blacks giving Trump 30% of the vote .
They have it as:
Balter (D) 45%
Katko (R) 45%
Interesting.
- Independent Independent SAGE
- Really Independent SAGE
- Keepin' It Really Independent SAGE
?
But regardless of Drakeford's mis-steps over this, I don't think he loses to McEvoy in May.
Why? Well it's a long time in the current world to May and this spat over essentials in supermarkets won't be much of a story then in my view.
Secondly, McEvoy was kicked out by Plaid and will be standing under his WNP banner. He's a popular politician with some in the constituency for sure, but others equally despise him, both Labour and Plaid voters.
Plaid will stand and split the nationalist vote with him which will mean an uphill battle. The electorate in many parts of the seat hasn't got more Tory either. If anything it's going more Plaid as the Welsh speaking middle class get priced out of Pontcanna and continue to move into Canton.
McEvoy will poll well in Fairwater and Ely, the less affluent parts of the constituency amongst those who vote. He won't take the seat though and as he's no longer Plaid won't get a list seat either.
He's coming to the end of his time in the Senedd.
https://twitter.com/ciaraphelan_/status/1320353502363832326
NEW THREAD
https://twitter.com/AberdeenFC/status/1320362415322763264?s=20
https://www.texastribune.org/2018/11/15/texas-state-students-young-voters-hays-county/
One question is who is fuelling the voting in Hays. If it is students, good for Biden as suggests younger voters are turning out. If it is not, then maybe good for Trump.
https://twitter.com/murdo_fraser/status/1320336033591009280?s=20
SAGE needs its ONION
BoJo? Not so much. Boris is a career journalist (not a very good one) and TV clown (much better).
BoJo = Trumpsky. In US we really do NOT have equivalent to Corbyn - thank God!
Find it fascinating folks who are intelligent BUT who know next to nothing about details of Biden's career,are so quick to write him off a lightweight.
That is, if they don't swallow the "demented vegetable" hogwash. Apparently unaware they are parroting BernieBro-Putinist progaganda. Which (as you may have noticed) have gone down like a lead balloon on THIS side of the Atlantic (and Pacific).