Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".
My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.
I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.
The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.
I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.
Surely these people now on 2.9k from 4 are saving a fortune by never going out?
Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves and that was the most generous scenario. Make that a lower income couple who had income of just £1800 each beforehand, they were on £1440 under the 80% system, now on just £1200 so post tax they've gone from £3k to just £2.2k as a household.
They've done nothing wrong, they've followed the rules and they're getting shat on by a chancellor who doesn't know how the other half live and has no contact with them. All he can see are numbers on a spreadsheet and it's wrong.
"Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves... "
Obviously, that's what the £2900 goes on. Times are hard, this is a nightmare we can barely have made up. I dont see the govt paying people 2/3rds pf their wages to stay at home as that insufferable really.
Agreed, I think it is beyond what most people expected when the crisis started. I recall a pb discussion in March where universal basic income was being discussed before furlough was announced. I suggested an amount of £1500 per month, and off memory that was the highest anyone called for, most were in the £500-1000 range. Whilst furlough is of course different and more limited, and people were thinking about 3 months rather than a year, back then people thought government support of £1k per month would be generous.
The govt financial support has on balance been fine, its generally been delivered seemingly late and grudgingly would be my main criticism.
Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".
My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.
I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.
The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.
I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.
But the kids of the people in the scenario you describe aren't eligible for free school meals, are they?
Maybe not now, but I expect this to roll out to all children eventually now we've established that feeding children is the responsibility of the government rather than their parents.
On the 2016 comparisons, if we'd had 2020-style early/mail voting in 2016 so Hillary banked a lot of votes before the Comey letter dropped, do we reckon she'd still have lost?
Yes, RCP's final average was not miles away from their late October averages, in Florida it moved from tied in late October to Trump +0.4% on eve of poll and North Carolina it moved from Clinton +3.2% in late October to Trump +1%. There was some movement to Trump in Pennsylvania and Michigan from late October to polling day but Hillary still led the average in both states, Hillary actually increased her average lead in Wisconsin from late October to polling day.
However Trump won Florida by 1.2% and NC by 3.7% so both also had a shy Trump vote, just less so than in the rustbelt
Rayner has done her future leadership prospects no harm with scumgate.
The most she will ever be is a female Prescott to Starmer as leader
That's further than anyone including herself could have expected. She just sounds stupid.
"As a mother" at 16 and Grandmother at 37, surely she should be PM just because she has lived through the experiences of the underclass? Lived experience trumps thought and consideration in the new normal
I didn't know that but it doesn't sound like she gave too much attention to education and the use of 'scum' doesn't show much imagination either so I wonder what her selection panel saw in her?
1) What do you think the methodological changes applied since 2016 will have done to the relative projections of the Biden vs Clinton votes 2) Some of the "surprise" states that Trump won in 2016 were barely polled throughout the campaign because it was assumed that Clinton had them in the bag. So were not very reliable. That is not the case this time 3) What equivalent event to the Comey decision to reopen the Clinton email investigation do you anticipate impacting negatively on the Biden campaign in the next week?
1) Little in terms of shy Trump voters
This is missing the point. Since 2016 the pollsters have made changes - in particular to reweight to account for educational attainment. This is believed to been favourable in some states to the Trump vote by 3-4pts I think. Therefore if they reran their polls from 2016 it would dramatically reduce the Clinton advantage in key states, or even show Trump ahead. So if the Clinton2016 vs Biden 2020 numbers are similar, then in fact Biden may be doing 3-4 pts better than Clinton was in 2016.
It doesn't matter if they are "missing" the supposed shy Trump voters (who they presumably don't believe exist to the extent that it causes inaccuracy in the polls). However, if you believe they do exist, then you need to believe such voters are 3-4% greater than in 2016 to overcome the other polling methodology changes that have been put in place.
Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".
My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.
I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.
The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.
I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.
Surely these people now on 2.9k from 4 are saving a fortune by never going out?
Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves and that was the most generous scenario. Make that a lower income couple who had income of just £1800 each beforehand, they were on £1440 under the 80% system, now on just £1200 so post tax they've gone from £3k to just £2.2k as a household.
They've done nothing wrong, they've followed the rules and they're getting shat on by a chancellor who doesn't know how the other half live and has no contact with them. All he can see are numbers on a spreadsheet and it's wrong.
"Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves... "
Obviously, that's what the £2900 goes on. Times are hard, this is a nightmare we can barely have made up. I dont see the govt paying people 2/3rds pf their wages to stay at home as that insufferable really.
I agree in the circumstances the government in my opinion has got this about right.
Covid created this crisis and most governments are struggling to protect incomes but also fight the disease
I just do not see how it is possible even to pay 80% of wages until next March.
Of course the public sector continue to receive their pay and benefits alongside pensioners who at present are to be awarded a 2.5% increase next April, while the private sector and large numbers of its employees pay a huge penalty
Everyone should be asking just how that is fair and of course how any future government is able to afford the public sector and pensions is the 'elephant in the room'
Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.
It's not Boris they are voting for in the Assembly
Apart from one North Wales seat the rest are conservative held and the Drakeford supermarket error and getting English police to report Welsh drivers to the Welsh police for prosecution has gone down like a lead balloon
We know Johnson is a major drag on the Conservative vote in Scotland.
On the 2016 comparisons, if we'd had 2020-style early/mail voting in 2016 so Hillary banked a lot of votes before the Comey letter dropped, do we reckon she'd still have lost?
Yes, RCP's final average was close to their late October averages, only real change was Florida which moved from tied in late October to Trump +0.4% on eve of poll and North Carolina which moved from Clinton +3.2% in late October to Trump +1%.
However Trump won Florida by 1.2% and NC by 3.7% so both also had a shy Trump vote, just less so than in the rustbelt
You are just speculating. You have no actual evidence for a "shy Trump" vote, beyond that the polls got it wrong last time, and the Trafalgar guy got some things right and claimed it was down to shy Trumpers. The pollsters themselves believe it was because they got the weighting of key demographics wrong. Something they have now corrected.
1) What do you think the methodological changes applied since 2016 will have done to the relative projections of the Biden vs Clinton votes 2) Some of the "surprise" states that Trump won in 2016 were barely polled throughout the campaign because it was assumed that Clinton had them in the bag. So were not very reliable. That is not the case this time 3) What equivalent event to the Comey decision to reopen the Clinton email investigation do you anticipate impacting negatively on the Biden campaign in the next week?
1) Little in terms of shy Trump voters 2) There were plenty of Michigan and Pennsylvania polls in 2016, all bar Trafalgar was wrong, there were still 12 polls of Wisconsin alone in October and November 2016, every single one was wrong and had Hillary ahead https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1320172303984934915?s=20 3) I doubt that made much real difference, 1 was more important
Trump was a largely unknown quantity in 2016 (and still lost the popular vote by 3 million). He is a known and extremely unpopular quantity in 2020. The Dems are fully prepared in the EC critical states and on current polling will be ahead by c7% in the popular vote.
The electoral fundamentals are not showing any sign that Trump is going to win. To the contrary the large t/o numbers and the reported demographics of those voting suggest a pretty substantial "blue wave".
On the other hand, the determination of so many to suggest that Trump iswinning/can win suggests a) fear b) GOP partizanship c) misunderstanding of the numbers.
If we give any credence to any polling anyway then Biden is in with a solid vote and EC majority and the GOP will also likely lose the Senate.
BUT the risk TSE is pointing out is that the system can be/is being subverted and the confusion will allow Trump to claim an illegitimate victory, based on huge numbers of legimate votes being ignored and wholesale voter suppression and various other forms of electoral corruption.
However these rumours also suit the Dems, since it will motivate the already highly motivated anti-Trump vote to come out across the board to make absolutely sure that the result is indisputible.
I think (and yeah, sure, hope) that evidence is pretty plain that Trump and the GOP are headed for a once in a generation shellacking and even cheating on an industrial scale will not be able to hide a very heavy defeat for the Republicans and especially Trump. So, although there is a real risk of confusion as the interference is repaired, it seems to be a 9 in 10 chance that Biden is elected President in 10 days.
Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.
It's not Boris they are voting for in the Assembly
Apart from one North Wales seat the rest are conservative held and the Drakeford supermarket error and getting English police to report Welsh drivers to the Welsh police for prosecution has gone down like a lead balloon
We know Johnson is a major drag on the Conservative vote in Scotland.
Do you have any polling evidence for that, or is that just from a survey of your true blue household?
As you say I guess it is the blue household. I think all four governments of the UK are struggling with the pandemic. From my perspective they are doing their best.And in the main fair minded people who put politics to one side give them some slack.
Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".
My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.
I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.
The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.
I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.
Surely these people now on 2.9k from 4 are saving a fortune by never going out?
Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves and that was the most generous scenario. Make that a lower income couple who had income of just £1800 each beforehand, they were on £1440 under the 80% system, now on just £1200 so post tax they've gone from £3k to just £2.2k as a household.
They've done nothing wrong, they've followed the rules and they're getting shat on by a chancellor who doesn't know how the other half live and has no contact with them. All he can see are numbers on a spreadsheet and it's wrong.
"Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves... "
Obviously, that's what the £2900 goes on. Times are hard, this is a nightmare we can barely have made up. I dont see the govt paying people 2/3rds pf their wages to stay at home as that insufferable really.
I agree in the circumstances the government in my opinion has got this about right.
Covid created this crisis and most governments are struggling to protect incomes but also fight the disease
I just do not see how it is possible even to pay 80% of wages until next March.
Of course the public sector continue to receive their pay and benefits alongside pensioners who at present are to be awarded a 2.5% increase next April, while the private sector and large numbers of its employees pay a huge penalty
Everyone should be asking just how that is fair and of course how any future government is able to afford the public sector and pensions is the 'elephant in the room'
Because currently Covid is a temporary blip that everyone across the world is subject to so all currencies are equally impacted.
Now is it better to pay 80% for a one off year to keep the economy ready for next year when we have a vaccine or pay 30% for multiple years (possibly decades) if we let Covid decimate the economy.
Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.
It's not Boris they are voting for in the Assembly
Apart from one North Wales seat the rest are conservative held and the Drakeford supermarket error and getting English police to report Welsh drivers to the Welsh police for prosecution has gone down like a lead balloon
We know Johnson is a major drag on the Conservative vote in Scotland.
You have consistently said the same about Nicola Sturgeon, Drakeford must be relieved to hear your analysis.
You clearly did not read my post this week when I was effusive about Sturgeon and apart from Independence which I do not agree with I think her balance between health and her desire not to damage business is admirable
Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.
It's not Boris they are voting for in the Assembly
Apart from one North Wales seat the rest are conservative held and the Drakeford supermarket error and getting English police to report Welsh drivers to the Welsh police for prosecution has gone down like a lead balloon
We know Johnson is a major drag on the Conservative vote in Scotland.
Drakeford isn't the greatest political operative, and this fiasco has taken him down at the knees. In the grand scheme of things it will likely as not disappear into the ether.The reality is those who are incandescent with rage are those who were incandescent with rage over the fire break anyway. The Tesco error smacks of incompetence rather than spite.
Johnson's error with Rashford, I would hazard cuts much, much deeper. The British sense of fair play has been compromised, and not just in England. It is a horror story for Johnson and more importantly the Conservative Party, it reminds me of the Labour Government's 75p pension rise 15 or so years ago. It looks awful and is difficult to shake off in a hurry.
Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.
It's not Boris they are voting for in the Assembly
Apart from one North Wales seat the rest are conservative held and the Drakeford supermarket error and getting English police to report Welsh drivers to the Welsh police for prosecution has gone down like a lead balloon
We know Johnson is a major drag on the Conservative vote in Scotland.
You have consistently said the same about Nicola Sturgeon, Drakeford must be relieved to hear your analysis.
You clearly did not read my post this week when I was effusive about Sturgeon and apart from Independence which I do not agree with I think her balance between health and her desire not to damage business is admirable
I'm talking about the period from April to September.
It was like listening to rime of the ancient mariner.
Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.
If you got 30 per cent of them to vote for you, then you'd win the election.
There is a vast untapped group of voters in the WA elections, that is my only point.
Why would they suddenly turnout next year though, when turnout in elections other than General Elections is perennially low?
Gosh, it is hard work.
Voters turn out in an election when they have been given a reason to vote.
That could be because they have seen an inspiring politician (but this is Wales and they are all pretty crap).
Or it could be because someone has royally pissed them off
Yeah, but you have been saying that they have been pissed off for years.
They also need to have someone to vote for. Negative voting is not part of the system. Who are they going to vote for instead?
1) What do you think the methodological changes applied since 2016 will have done to the relative projections of the Biden vs Clinton votes 2) Some of the "surprise" states that Trump won in 2016 were barely polled throughout the campaign because it was assumed that Clinton had them in the bag. So were not very reliable. That is not the case this time 3) What equivalent event to the Comey decision to reopen the Clinton email investigation do you anticipate impacting negatively on the Biden campaign in the next week?
1) Little in terms of shy Trump voters 2) There were plenty of Michigan and Pennsylvania polls in 2016, all bar Trafalgar was wrong, there were still 12 polls of Wisconsin alone in October and November 2016, every single one was wrong and had Hillary ahead https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1320172303984934915?s=20 3) I doubt that made much real difference, 1 was more important
Trump was a largely unknown quantity in 2016 (and still lost the popular vote by 3 million). He is a known and extremely unpopular quantity in 2020. The Dems are fully prepared in the EC critical states and on current polling will be ahead by c7% in the popular vote.
The electoral fundamentals are not showing any sign that Trump is going to win. To the contrary the large t/o numbers and the reported demographics of those voting suggest a pretty substantial "blue wave".
On the other hand, the determination of so many to suggest that Trump iswinning/can win suggests a) fear b) GOP partizanship c) misunderstanding of the numbers.
If we give any credence to any polling anyway then Biden is in with a solid vote and EC majority and the GOP will also likely lose the Senate.
BUT the risk TSE is pointing out is that the system can be/is being subverted and the confusion will allow Trump to claim an illegitimate victory, based on huge numbers of legimate votes being ignored and wholesale voter suppression and various other forms of electoral corruption.
However these rumours also suit the Dems, since it will motivate the already highly motivated anti-Trump vote to come out across the board to make absolutely sure that the result is indisputible.
I think (and yeah, sure, hope) that evidence is pretty plain that Trump and the GOP are headed for a once in a generation shellacking and even cheating on an industrial scale will not be able to hide a very heavy defeat for the Republicans and especially Trump. So, although there is a real risk of confusion as the interference is repaired, it seems to be a 9 in 10 chance that Biden is elected President in 10 days.
If the GOP were heading for a 'once in a generation shellacking' then Biden should be looking to win on an LBJ v Goldwater scale in 1964 or a Nixon v McGovern scale in 1972, in 1964 LBJ won 61% of the popular vote and 486 EC votes and in 1972 Nixon won 60.7% of the popular vote and 520 EC votes. Or Biden should at least be looking to match the 58.8% Reagan got in 1984 even if a little short of the 525 EC votes he got that year.
Yet the latest 538 average has Biden on 51.9% and the latest RCP average has Biden only on 50.8%, with no major third party candidate this year where are the missing voters given Trump is currently only on 42.9% with 538 and 42.7% with RCP?
Stolen from Michael Porters Competitive Advantage of Nations - but I don't see what that actually has to do with pubs to any real extent. Local competition means available skilled labour and an incentive to innovate.
In the IT sector I usually work in the community is actually very good at both the skilling up of resources and providing incentives for companies to innovate worldwide.
Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.
The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.
Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.
Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).
Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables
Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats
Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".
My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.
I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.
The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.
I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.
Surely these people now on 2.9k from 4 are saving a fortune by never going out?
Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves and that was the most generous scenario. Make that a lower income couple who had income of just £1800 each beforehand, they were on £1440 under the 80% system, now on just £1200 so post tax they've gone from £3k to just £2.2k as a household.
They've done nothing wrong, they've followed the rules and they're getting shat on by a chancellor who doesn't know how the other half live and has no contact with them. All he can see are numbers on a spreadsheet and it's wrong.
"Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves... "
Obviously, that's what the £2900 goes on. Times are hard, this is a nightmare we can barely have made up. I dont see the govt paying people 2/3rds pf their wages to stay at home as that insufferable really.
I agree in the circumstances the government in my opinion has got this about right.
Covid created this crisis and most governments are struggling to protect incomes but also fight the disease
I just do not see how it is possible even to pay 80% of wages until next March.
Of course the public sector continue to receive their pay and benefits alongside pensioners who at present are to be awarded a 2.5% increase next April, while the private sector and large numbers of its employees pay a huge penalty
Everyone should be asking just how that is fair and of course how any future government is able to afford the public sector and pensions is the 'elephant in the room'
1) What do you think the methodological changes applied since 2016 will have done to the relative projections of the Biden vs Clinton votes 2) Some of the "surprise" states that Trump won in 2016 were barely polled throughout the campaign because it was assumed that Clinton had them in the bag. So were not very reliable. That is not the case this time 3) What equivalent event to the Comey decision to reopen the Clinton email investigation do you anticipate impacting negatively on the Biden campaign in the next week?
1) Little in terms of shy Trump voters 2) There were plenty of Michigan and Pennsylvania polls in 2016, all bar Trafalgar was wrong, there were still 12 polls of Wisconsin alone in October and November 2016, every single one was wrong and had Hillary ahead https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1320172303984934915?s=20 3) I doubt that made much real difference, 1 was more important
Trump was a largely unknown quantity in 2016 (and still lost the popular vote by 3 million). He is a known and extremely unpopular quantity in 2020. The Dems are fully prepared in the EC critical states and on current polling will be ahead by c7% in the popular vote.
The electoral fundamentals are not showing any sign that Trump is going to win. To the contrary the large t/o numbers and the reported demographics of those voting suggest a pretty substantial "blue wave".
On the other hand, the determination of so many to suggest that Trump iswinning/can win suggests a) fear b) GOP partizanship c) misunderstanding of the numbers.
If we give any credence to any polling anyway then Biden is in with a solid vote and EC majority and the GOP will also likely lose the Senate.
BUT the risk TSE is pointing out is that the system can be/is being subverted and the confusion will allow Trump to claim an illegitimate victory, based on huge numbers of legimate votes being ignored and wholesale voter suppression and various other forms of electoral corruption.
However these rumours also suit the Dems, since it will motivate the already highly motivated anti-Trump vote to come out across the board to make absolutely sure that the result is indisputible.
I think (and yeah, sure, hope) that evidence is pretty plain that Trump and the GOP are headed for a once in a generation shellacking and even cheating on an industrial scale will not be able to hide a very heavy defeat for the Republicans and especially Trump. So, although there is a real risk of confusion as the interference is repaired, it seems to be a 9 in 10 chance that Biden is elected President in 10 days.
If the GOP were heading for a 'once in a generation shellacking' then Biden should be looking to win on an LBJ v Goldwater scale in 1964 or a Nixon v McGovern scale in 1972, in 1964 LBJ won 61% of the popular vote and 486 EC votes and in 1972 Nixon won 60.7% of the popular vote and 520 EC votes. Or Biden should at least be looking to match the 58.8% Reagan got in 1984 even if a little short of the 525 EC votes he got that year.
Yet the latest 538 average has Biden on 51.9% and the latest RCP average has Biden only on 50.8%, with no major third party candidate this year where are the missing voters given Trump is currently only on 42.9% with 538 and 42.7% with RCP?
Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.
It's not Boris they are voting for in the Assembly
Apart from one North Wales seat the rest are conservative held and the Drakeford supermarket error and getting English police to report Welsh drivers to the Welsh police for prosecution has gone down like a lead balloon
We know Johnson is a major drag on the Conservative vote in Scotland.
Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.
The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.
Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.
Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).
Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables
Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats
Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
Paging HYUFD.
Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
Taken pre Drakeford destroying the Welsh economy and banning sale of non essential goods
How are your predictions of Scottish voters punishing Sturgeon for X, Y and Z going?
Sturgeon of course has now followed Boris in only using a tier system not a full national lockdown again like Drakeford in Wales, though we shall see what the central belt does next year once the effects of the restrictions on its hospitality sector are felt
Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.
It's not Boris they are voting for in the Assembly
Apart from one North Wales seat the rest are conservative held and the Drakeford supermarket error and getting English police to report Welsh drivers to the Welsh police for prosecution has gone down like a lead balloon
We know Johnson is a major drag on the Conservative vote in Scotland.
Drakeford isn't the greatest political operative, and this fiasco has taken him down at the knees. In the grand scheme of things it will likely as not disappear into the ether.The reality is those who are incandescent with rage are those who were incandescent with rage over the fire break anyway. The Tesco error smacks of incompetence rather than spite.
Johnson's error with Rashford, I would hazard cuts much, much deeper. The British sense of fair play has been compromised, and not just in England. It is a horror story for Johnson and more importantly the Conservative Party, it reminds me of the Labour Government's 75p pension rise 15 or so years ago. It looks awful and is difficult to shake off in a hurry.
I agree 100% and to be honest have said on several occasions that Andy Burnham and Marcus Rashford have damaged Boris significantly and hopefully the back benchers will wake up that his time is up
As I said at the time, I would have voted with Labour had I been a conservative mp and of course 5 did with 22 abstaining but unless Boris comes to his senses I really hope the 22 who abstained vote for, along with many more, in the second vote coming up from Labour after recess
I admire Marcus not just because I am a lifelong Man Utd supporter but his crusade is right and has my full backing
Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.
The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.
Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.
Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).
Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables
Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats
Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
Paging HYUFD.
Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
Taken pre Drakeford destroying the Welsh economy and banning sale of non essential goods
How are your predictions of Scottish voters punishing Sturgeon for X, Y and Z going?
Sturgeon of course has now followed Boris in only using a tier system not a full national lockdown again like Drakeford in Wales, though we shall see what the central belt does next year once the effects of the restrictions on its hospitality sector are felt
Definitely need to get Trafalgar involved in Scotch polling. Perhaps Scotland In Union could use some of their mysteriously abundant funds to tempt them over?
Am now waiting for the tabloids to run headlines linked to celebrity chefs condemning the ingredients, too much sugar, fat, followed by vegans organising a boycott of the free school meals.
Johnson was spun as a good delegator, adept at PR, but his team have proved to be leaden footed, slow moving, slow thinking and about as much good as an Manchester United centre half.
That's an insult to a Manchester United centre half - an Elgin City under 7s centre half would be a better comparison.
I get the impression that his MPs view him as the ridiculous buffoon the rest of us do but with a very sinister and dangerous hit-man behind him. What else explains their simpering obsequiousness
Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.
It's not Boris they are voting for in the Assembly
Apart from one North Wales seat the rest are conservative held and the Drakeford supermarket error and getting English police to report Welsh drivers to the Welsh police for prosecution has gone down like a lead balloon
We know Johnson is a major drag on the Conservative vote in Scotland.
Pretty sure congenial international relations are possible even when political leaders are in disagreement on political ideologies.
Of course but a hard border in Ireland is very difficult for politicians in the US to ignore.
I don't doubt it, and I think no deal would be very problematic, but the histrionics about being all alone and wailing all the time about it tends to overdo the personality element as well.
Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.
It's not Boris they are voting for in the Assembly
Apart from one North Wales seat the rest are conservative held and the Drakeford supermarket error and getting English police to report Welsh drivers to the Welsh police for prosecution has gone down like a lead balloon
We know Johnson is a major drag on the Conservative vote in Scotland.
Do you have any polling evidence for that, or is that just from a survey of your true blue household?
As you say I guess it is the blue household. I think all four governments of the UK are struggling with the pandemic. From my perspective they are doing their best.And in the main fair minded people who put politics to one side give them some slack.
Not all are struggling with popularity though. Scottish one gets ever more popular as the alternives are shown to be extremely dire
Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.
It's not Boris they are voting for in the Assembly
Apart from one North Wales seat the rest are conservative held and the Drakeford supermarket error and getting English police to report Welsh drivers to the Welsh police for prosecution has gone down like a lead balloon
We know Johnson is a major drag on the Conservative vote in Scotland.
You have consistently said the same about Nicola Sturgeon, Drakeford must be relieved to hear your analysis.
You clearly did not read my post this week when I was effusive about Sturgeon and apart from Independence which I do not agree with I think her balance between health and her desire not to damage business is admirable
I'm talking about the period from April to September.
It was like listening to rime of the ancient mariner.
I strongly disagree with her over independence and that will not change
However, as I do accept she has done well over covid so far
Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.
If you got 30 per cent of them to vote for you, then you'd win the election.
There is a vast untapped group of voters in the WA elections, that is my only point.
Why would they suddenly turnout next year though, when turnout in elections other than General Elections is perennially low?
Gosh, it is hard work.
Voters turn out in an election when they have been given a reason to vote.
That could be because they have seen an inspiring politician (but this is Wales and they are all pretty crap).
Or it could be because someone has royally pissed them off
Yeah, but you have been saying that they have been pissed off for years.
They also need to have someone to vote for. Negative voting is not part of the system. Who are they going to vote for instead?
I think that is largely true, and Labour in Wales were punished in 2019, both for Corbyn and Drakeford. If Johnson disappoints, the Conservatives in Wales won't benefit in the Sennedd election. Conversely if Labour are seen as a more competent opposition in Westminster a little may rub off on Labour in Wales despite their moderately dreary performance in government here.
Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".
My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.
I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.
The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.
I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.
Surely these people now on 2.9k from 4 are saving a fortune by never going out?
Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves and that was the most generous scenario. Make that a lower income couple who had income of just £1800 each beforehand, they were on £1440 under the 80% system, now on just £1200 so post tax they've gone from £3k to just £2.2k as a household.
They've done nothing wrong, they've followed the rules and they're getting shat on by a chancellor who doesn't know how the other half live and has no contact with them. All he can see are numbers on a spreadsheet and it's wrong.
"Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves... "
Obviously, that's what the £2900 goes on. Times are hard, this is a nightmare we can barely have made up. I dont see the govt paying people 2/3rds pf their wages to stay at home as that insufferable really.
I agree in the circumstances the government in my opinion has got this about right.
Covid created this crisis and most governments are struggling to protect incomes but also fight the disease
I just do not see how it is possible even to pay 80% of wages until next March.
Of course the public sector continue to receive their pay and benefits alongside pensioners who at present are to be awarded a 2.5% increase next April, while the private sector and large numbers of its employees pay a huge penalty
Everyone should be asking just how that is fair and of course how any future government is able to afford the public sector and pensions is the 'elephant in the room'
Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.
The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.
Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.
Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).
Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables
Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats
Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
Paging HYUFD.
Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
Taken pre Drakeford destroying the Welsh economy and banning sale of non essential goods
How are your predictions of Scottish voters punishing Sturgeon for X, Y and Z going?
Sturgeon of course has now followed Boris in only using a tier system not a full national lockdown again like Drakeford in Wales, though we shall see what the central belt does next year once the effects of the restrictions on its hospitality sector are felt
Avoid answering the question posted and spout more guff
Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.
The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.
Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.
Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).
Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables
Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats
Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
Paging HYUFD.
Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
I thought that was the latest poll as well
*No idea about HYUFD latest poll showing a large conservative lead
*Just noticed the poll HYUFD quotes is from last April, he really does not do himself any favours
HYUFD is something a little bit naughty when it comes to quoting opinion polls. I do not think it acceptable to ignore the most recent polls if they don't fit one's agenda. Likewise his use of subsamples, which I thought was the cardinal sin of opinion polling.
Well virtually everyone on here ignores Trafalgar despite the fact they were the only pollster to have Trump winning the EC in 2016 as it does not suit their agenda so what.
If you wish to believe Drakeford will win a Labour landslide next year that is up to you, the voters will likely prove you wrong come next May and the movement in Wales is to the Tories
Trafalgar is not a pollster.
If the last opinion poll tells me Labour are ahead of the Conservatives that is the one I base my facts on until the next one that might say otherwise. 34% is not going to give anyone a landslide.
You are a clever guy and your input on here is taken seriously by many people , not least myself. I take my hat off to you calling the 2019 election as early as you did.
Using fake pollsters and quoting out of date polling does you no favours. You are better than that!
You have no evidence Trafalgar are not a pollster other than disbelief in their results, they were right going against the herd in 2016 and I have no reason to believe they will not be right this time too so will continue to mention them, this article sets out clearly their methods
Robert spoke to the guy and wrote a dissertation on the call. He tried to give a balanced view but still came to the conclusion that the guy at best someone who did not adhere to the standards terms of reference used by legitimate pollsters. Reading between the lines I assume he concluded the guy was more sinister than that (my interpretation).
Luntz is a Trump hack. Asking Linz for a balanced view on Election 2020 is like asking Nigel Farage for a balanced view on Brexit. Even if he wanted to, he couldn't.
Luntz is a Republican hack, of very long standing, rather than a Trump one. (I don’t think he will be voting for Trump.) But otherwise, agreed.
Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.
If you got 30 per cent of them to vote for you, then you'd win the election.
There is a vast untapped group of voters in the WA elections, that is my only point.
Why would they suddenly turnout next year though, when turnout in elections other than General Elections is perennially low?
Gosh, it is hard work.
Voters turn out in an election when they have been given a reason to vote.
That could be because they have seen an inspiring politician (but this is Wales and they are all pretty crap).
Or it could be because someone has royally pissed them off
Yeah, but you have been saying that they have been pissed off for years.
They also need to have someone to vote for. Negative voting is not part of the system. Who are they going to vote for instead?
Sigh. There are parties other than Tory or Labour, two corrupt cheeks of the same bulging arse.
As I have pointed out Drakeford has a highly marginal seat against a populist maverick opponent who is busy making hay while the sun shines.
McEvoy: " it's not about toasters, books, it's about keeping people on board with what's going to be a long drawn out winter, to protect our NHS. Push people too far, and they rebel. It's called reactive abuse. We live in Wales. Know your people. Poverty don't shop on the Internet."
There's the mistake in pitiful glory.
There it is -- KNOW YOUR PEOPLE. POVERTY DON"T SHOP ON THE INTERNET.
Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".
My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.
I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.
The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.
I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.
Surely these people now on 2.9k from 4 are saving a fortune by never going out?
Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves and that was the most generous scenario. Make that a lower income couple who had income of just £1800 each beforehand, they were on £1440 under the 80% system, now on just £1200 so post tax they've gone from £3k to just £2.2k as a household.
They've done nothing wrong, they've followed the rules and they're getting shat on by a chancellor who doesn't know how the other half live and has no contact with them. All he can see are numbers on a spreadsheet and it's wrong.
"Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves... "
Obviously, that's what the £2900 goes on. Times are hard, this is a nightmare we can barely have made up. I dont see the govt paying people 2/3rds pf their wages to stay at home as that insufferable really.
I agree in the circumstances the government in my opinion has got this about right.
Covid created this crisis and most governments are struggling to protect incomes but also fight the disease
I just do not see how it is possible even to pay 80% of wages until next March.
Of course the public sector continue to receive their pay and benefits alongside pensioners who at present are to be awarded a 2.5% increase next April, while the private sector and large numbers of its employees pay a huge penalty
Everyone should be asking just how that is fair and of course how any future government is able to afford the public sector and pensions is the 'elephant in the room'
I get my state pension starting January
Quite a moment Malc
May be worth deferring for a bit, 5.4% interest added.
Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.
It's not Boris they are voting for in the Assembly
Apart from one North Wales seat the rest are conservative held and the Drakeford supermarket error and getting English police to report Welsh drivers to the Welsh police for prosecution has gone down like a lead balloon
We know Johnson is a major drag on the Conservative vote in Scotland.
Drakeford isn't the greatest political operative, and this fiasco has taken him down at the knees. In the grand scheme of things it will likely as not disappear into the ether.The reality is those who are incandescent with rage are those who were incandescent with rage over the fire break anyway. The Tesco error smacks of incompetence rather than spite.
Johnson's error with Rashford, I would hazard cuts much, much deeper. The British sense of fair play has been compromised, and not just in England. It is a horror story for Johnson and more importantly the Conservative Party, it reminds me of the Labour Government's 75p pension rise 15 or so years ago. It looks awful and is difficult to shake off in a hurry.
I agree 100% and to be honest have said on several occasions that Andy Burnham and Marcus Rashford have damaged Boris significantly and hopefully the back benchers will wake up that his time is up
As I said at the time, I would have voted with Labour had I been a conservative mp and of course 5 did with 22 abstaining but unless Boris comes to his senses I really hope the 22 who abstained vote for, along with many more, in the second vote coming up from Labour after recess
I admire Marcus not just because I am a lifelong Man Utd supporter but his crusade is right and has my full backing
Your man Sunak doesn't come out of this well either. He needs to learn from this error and smarten his game up too, if he wants to see the highest office.
Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.
It's not Boris they are voting for in the Assembly
Apart from one North Wales seat the rest are conservative held and the Drakeford supermarket error and getting English police to report Welsh drivers to the Welsh police for prosecution has gone down like a lead balloon
We know Johnson is a major drag on the Conservative vote in Scotland.
Do you have any polling evidence for that, or is that just from a survey of your true blue household?
How on earth do you know how my family vote, even I do not and it may surprise you but politics is not normally on my families radar
However, I would ask why you think this debacle has not damaged Drakeford
Just asking for some evidence. From the polling that I have seen, other politicians in Wales are even less popular.
And that is the problem for the Senedd
Virtually nobody is known, not even Drakeford until now, but that has changed quite dramatically in the last few days and I expect it will play into next May's election
Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".
My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.
I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.
The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.
I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.
Surely these people now on 2.9k from 4 are saving a fortune by never going out?
Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves and that was the most generous scenario. Make that a lower income couple who had income of just £1800 each beforehand, they were on £1440 under the 80% system, now on just £1200 so post tax they've gone from £3k to just £2.2k as a household.
They've done nothing wrong, they've followed the rules and they're getting shat on by a chancellor who doesn't know how the other half live and has no contact with them. All he can see are numbers on a spreadsheet and it's wrong.
"Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves... "
Obviously, that's what the £2900 goes on. Times are hard, this is a nightmare we can barely have made up. I dont see the govt paying people 2/3rds pf their wages to stay at home as that insufferable really.
I agree in the circumstances the government in my opinion has got this about right.
Covid created this crisis and most governments are struggling to protect incomes but also fight the disease
I just do not see how it is possible even to pay 80% of wages until next March.
Of course the public sector continue to receive their pay and benefits alongside pensioners who at present are to be awarded a 2.5% increase next April, while the private sector and large numbers of its employees pay a huge penalty
Everyone should be asking just how that is fair and of course how any future government is able to afford the public sector and pensions is the 'elephant in the room'
I get my state pension starting January
Quite a moment Malc
May be worth deferring for a bit, 5.4% interest added.
I did look at it but decided it was hardly worth it overall. As still working it will mean I get hammered for tax though, but upside is I will save about 500 a month in NI. Will probably stick the equivalent into pension to get tax back. Though not quite the issue lots of people losing their jobs are having at present.
Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.
It's not Boris they are voting for in the Assembly
Apart from one North Wales seat the rest are conservative held and the Drakeford supermarket error and getting English police to report Welsh drivers to the Welsh police for prosecution has gone down like a lead balloon
We know Johnson is a major drag on the Conservative vote in Scotland.
Drakeford isn't the greatest political operative, and this fiasco has taken him down at the knees. In the grand scheme of things it will likely as not disappear into the ether.The reality is those who are incandescent with rage are those who were incandescent with rage over the fire break anyway. The Tesco error smacks of incompetence rather than spite.
Johnson's error with Rashford, I would hazard cuts much, much deeper. The British sense of fair play has been compromised, and not just in England. It is a horror story for Johnson and more importantly the Conservative Party, it reminds me of the Labour Government's 75p pension rise 15 or so years ago. It looks awful and is difficult to shake off in a hurry.
I agree 100% and to be honest have said on several occasions that Andy Burnham and Marcus Rashford have damaged Boris significantly and hopefully the back benchers will wake up that his time is up
As I said at the time, I would have voted with Labour had I been a conservative mp and of course 5 did with 22 abstaining but unless Boris comes to his senses I really hope the 22 who abstained vote for, along with many more, in the second vote coming up from Labour after recess
I admire Marcus not just because I am a lifelong Man Utd supporter but his crusade is right and has my full backing
Your man Sunak doesn't come out of this well either. He needs to learn from this error and smarten his game up too, if he wants to see the highest office.
I am not patronising when I say I recognise that as well
I hope both Boris and Rishi put this right and quickly because it is the correct thing to do
Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.
If you got 30 per cent of them to vote for you, then you'd win the election.
There is a vast untapped group of voters in the WA elections, that is my only point.
Why would they suddenly turnout next year though, when turnout in elections other than General Elections is perennially low?
Gosh, it is hard work.
Voters turn out in an election when they have been given a reason to vote.
That could be because they have seen an inspiring politician (but this is Wales and they are all pretty crap).
Or it could be because someone has royally pissed them off
Yeah, but you have been saying that they have been pissed off for years.
They also need to have someone to vote for. Negative voting is not part of the system. Who are they going to vote for instead?
I think that is largely true, and Labour in Wales were punished in 2019, both for Corbyn and Drakeford. If Johnson disappoints, the Conservatives in Wales won't benefit in the Sennedd election. Conversely if Labour are seen as a more competent opposition in Westminster a little may rub off on Labour in Wales despite their moderately dreary performance in government here.
I don't think that is true, Drakeford leads the Welsh Government not Boris and is a far less impressive FM than Carwyn Jones or Rhodri Morgan or even Alun Michael were and Paul Davies is the Welsh Tory leader not Boris.
Welsh voters will give their verdict on Drakeford next year, they will not give their verdict on Boris again until 2024 and as Wales voted Leave anyway Brexit is less of a factor than in Scotland
I hope for his sake if Biden does win he does last a full term, as otherwise I suspect history, from the more progressive element, will conclude victory was inevitable and he was just lucky to be the one in place.
And as everyone seems to think he would only be a single term president, it would be hilarious if he decided to run again, even though he'd be 82.
Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.
It's not Boris they are voting for in the Assembly
Apart from one North Wales seat the rest are conservative held and the Drakeford supermarket error and getting English police to report Welsh drivers to the Welsh police for prosecution has gone down like a lead balloon
We know Johnson is a major drag on the Conservative vote in Scotland.
Drakeford isn't the greatest political operative, and this fiasco has taken him down at the knees. In the grand scheme of things it will likely as not disappear into the ether.The reality is those who are incandescent with rage are those who were incandescent with rage over the fire break anyway. The Tesco error smacks of incompetence rather than spite.
Johnson's error with Rashford, I would hazard cuts much, much deeper. The British sense of fair play has been compromised, and not just in England. It is a horror story for Johnson and more importantly the Conservative Party, it reminds me of the Labour Government's 75p pension rise 15 or so years ago. It looks awful and is difficult to shake off in a hurry.
I agree 100% and to be honest have said on several occasions that Andy Burnham and Marcus Rashford have damaged Boris significantly and hopefully the back benchers will wake up that his time is up
As I said at the time, I would have voted with Labour had I been a conservative mp and of course 5 did with 22 abstaining but unless Boris comes to his senses I really hope the 22 who abstained vote for, along with many more, in the second vote coming up from Labour after recess
I admire Marcus not just because I am a lifelong Man Utd supporter but his crusade is right and has my full backing
Voting against "Rashford" will haunt the Party as well as Johnson.
Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.
It's not Boris they are voting for in the Assembly
Apart from one North Wales seat the rest are conservative held and the Drakeford supermarket error and getting English police to report Welsh drivers to the Welsh police for prosecution has gone down like a lead balloon
We know Johnson is a major drag on the Conservative vote in Scotland.
Drakeford isn't the greatest political operative, and this fiasco has taken him down at the knees. In the grand scheme of things it will likely as not disappear into the ether.The reality is those who are incandescent with rage are those who were incandescent with rage over the fire break anyway. The Tesco error smacks of incompetence rather than spite.
Johnson's error with Rashford, I would hazard cuts much, much deeper. The British sense of fair play has been compromised, and not just in England. It is a horror story for Johnson and more importantly the Conservative Party, it reminds me of the Labour Government's 75p pension rise 15 or so years ago. It looks awful and is difficult to shake off in a hurry.
I agree 100% and to be honest have said on several occasions that Andy Burnham and Marcus Rashford have damaged Boris significantly and hopefully the back benchers will wake up that his time is up
As I said at the time, I would have voted with Labour had I been a conservative mp and of course 5 did with 22 abstaining but unless Boris comes to his senses I really hope the 22 who abstained vote for, along with many more, in the second vote coming up from Labour after recess
I admire Marcus not just because I am a lifelong Man Utd supporter but his crusade is right and has my full backing
Voting against "Rashford" will haunt the Party as well as Johnson.
And that is why either Boris u turns (again) or his mps must do the right thing
Some polling out for the US today. USC has Biden on +10, +12, +10.
Trafalgar has 3 new polls out, which I suspect will be discussed here, show: FL Trump +2 AZ Trump +3 MI Trump +2 So I suspect not a surprise to anyone.
A single poll for SD Trump +11
Oh and since I posted some high Texas polling for Biden. University of Texas at Tyler. Biden +3
I personally am putting that one in with Trafalgar as outlier.
Trafalgar of course being the outlier that was right in being the only pollster to have Trump ahead in PA and Michigan in 2016, they have Biden ahead in PA now and more narrowly in Wisconsin and Trump narrowly ahead in Michigan so are still showing a small swing to Biden but not enough of a swing to win the EC which is plausible.
Survey Monkey in another Texas poll has Trump up by 4%, if Biden wins a landslide he could win Texas but only in that scenario
Am now waiting for the tabloids to run headlines linked to celebrity chefs condemning the ingredients, too much sugar, fat, followed by vegans organising a boycott of the free school meals.
Johnson was spun as a good delegator, adept at PR, but his team have proved to be leaden footed, slow moving, slow thinking and about as much good as an Manchester United centre half.
That's an insult to a Manchester United centre half - an Elgin City under 7s centre half would be a better comparison.
I get the impression that his MPs view him as the ridiculous buffoon the rest of us do but with a very sinister and dangerous hit-man behind him. What else explains their simpering obsequiousness
The smarter MPs will have recognised that Boris was capable of being his own sinister and dangerous hitman long before Dom arrived from the planet Venus.
Eddie Mair's "nasty piece of work" interview was back in 2013.
Some polling out for the US today. USC has Biden on +10, +12, +10.
Trafalgar has 3 new polls out, which I suspect will be discussed here, show: FL Trump +2 AZ Trump +3 MI Trump +2 So I suspect not a surprise to anyone.
A single poll for SD Trump +11
Oh and since I posted some high Texas polling for Biden. University of Texas at Tyler. Biden +3
I personally am putting that one in with Trafalgar as outlier.
Trafalgar of course being the outlier that was right in being the only pollster to have Trump ahead in PA and Michigan in 2016, they have Biden ahead in PA now and more narrowly in Wisconsin and Trump narrowly ahead in Michigan so are still showing a small swing to Biden but not enough of a swing to win the EC which is plausible.
Survey Monkey in another Texas poll has Trump up by 4%, if Biden wins a landslide he could win Texas but only in that scenario
Trump is definitely US Corbyn whilst Biden is Bozo, it is the best of a bad lot choice for the electorate.
Biden really isn’t. He has quite a talented team around him, and decades of political capital to draw on. He also gives a damn. Rather older than would be ideal, sure.
Trump is definitely US Corbyn whilst Biden is Bozo, it is the best of a bad lot choice for the electorate.
Biden really isn’t. He has quite a talented team around him, and decades of political capital to draw on. He also gives a damn. Rather older than would be ideal, sure.
That either of them, or their situations, share characteristics with the situation of the US candidates doesn't mean to say they are identical.
Trump is definitely US Corbyn whilst Biden is Bozo, it is the best of a bad lot choice for the electorate.
Biden really isn’t. He has quite a talented team around him, and decades of political capital to draw on. He also gives a damn. Rather older than would be ideal, sure.
Trump is definitely US Corbyn whilst Biden is Bozo, it is the best of a bad lot choice for the electorate.
Biden really isn’t. He has quite a talented team around him, and decades of political capital to draw on. He also gives a damn. Rather older than would be ideal, sure.
I know he is not like Corbyn but he is ancient and not exactly who you would pick for such a demanding job. He will be very lucky to last the term with his faculties. Debatable whether he will be as bad as Bozo but we will see if there are skeletons in the cupboard to come out as well. US politics on both sides is as pork belly as the Tories in UK. It is themselves and chums first with country well down the pecking order.
Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.
The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.
Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.
Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).
Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables
Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats
Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.
If you got 30 per cent of them to vote for you, then you'd win the election.
There is a vast untapped group of voters in the WA elections, that is my only point.
Why would they suddenly turnout next year though, when turnout in elections other than General Elections is perennially low?
Gosh, it is hard work.
Voters turn out in an election when they have been given a reason to vote.
That could be because they have seen an inspiring politician (but this is Wales and they are all pretty crap).
Or it could be because someone has royally pissed them off
Yeah, but you have been saying that they have been pissed off for years.
They also need to have someone to vote for. Negative voting is not part of the system. Who are they going to vote for instead?
Sigh. There are parties other than Tory or Labour, two corrupt cheeks of the same bulging arse.
As I have pointed out Drakeford has a highly marginal seat against a populist maverick opponent who is busy making hay while the sun shines.
McEvoy: " it's not about toasters, books, it's about keeping people on board with what's going to be a long drawn out winter, to protect our NHS. Push people too far, and they rebel. It's called reactive abuse. We live in Wales. Know your people. Poverty don't shop on the Internet."
There's the mistake in pitiful glory.
There it is -- KNOW YOUR PEOPLE. POVERTY DON"T SHOP ON THE INTERNET.
McEvoy ounds more likely to split the opposition vote than defeat Drakeford to me.
Next years Welsh, Scottish and English local elections look interesting, but I suspect Welsh Labour will hang on. The opposition are simply too split.
During the Trump period, Mr Johnson has tried to lever influence with other leaders by presenting himself as the man who has the ear of, and can help to interpret, the White House wild man. “Boris Johnson sold himself as the Trump whisperer,” says Jonathan Powell, a diplomat in Washington before he became Tony Blair’s chief of staff. “Without Trump, what is the point of Johnson?” More existentially, the British may ask themselves where his policies have left this country other than looking alone in a dangerous world. Brexit has fractured the relationship with Europe, one pillar of the postwar foreign policy. Now it looks highly likely that the other pillar, a close relationship with the US, will be shuddering.
Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.
The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.
Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.
Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).
Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables
Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats
Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.
The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.
Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.
Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).
Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables
Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats
Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.
The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.
Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.
Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).
Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables
Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats
Trump is definitely US Corbyn whilst Biden is Bozo, it is the best of a bad lot choice for the electorate.
Biden really isn’t. He has quite a talented team around him, and decades of political capital to draw on. He also gives a damn. Rather older than would be ideal, sure.
That either of them, or their situations, share characteristics with the situation of the US candidates doesn't mean to say they are identical.
Just not seeing the Johnson/Biden comparison at all. Other than that Biden is about to win an election, too.
Trump is definitely US Corbyn whilst Biden is Bozo, it is the best of a bad lot choice for the electorate.
Biden really isn’t. He has quite a talented team around him, and decades of political capital to draw on. He also gives a damn. Rather older than would be ideal, sure.
Biden strikes me as a big picture kind of guy. Bit like Trump actually (That's where the similiarities end though), the difference is he'll surround himself with competent people instead of the Yes men Trump picks.
Interestingly that was biased towards Trump in 2016 . The fieldwork now includes two full days post the final debate , will be interesting to see what the other pollsters come out with nationally as many were showing leads of around 10 points when the IBDD had the gap at between 3 and 5 points .
Trump is definitely US Corbyn whilst Biden is Bozo, it is the best of a bad lot choice for the electorate.
Biden really isn’t. He has quite a talented team around him, and decades of political capital to draw on. He also gives a damn. Rather older than would be ideal, sure.
That either of them, or their situations, share characteristics with the situation of the US candidates doesn't mean to say they are identical.
Just not seeing the Johnson/Biden comparison at all. Other than that Biden is about to win an election, too.
It is fairly clear who could vote for Trump if sane so only choice is Biden, similarly who could vote for Corbyn, hence Bozo winning.
Biden’s closing message is bringing the country together whilst Trumps is tear it apart and sow more division . The Black Eyed Peas have re-mastered their superb song Where Is The Love with Biden talking in parts . It’s absolutely wonderful and inspiring.
Some polling out for the US today. USC has Biden on +10, +12, +10.
Trafalgar has 3 new polls out, which I suspect will be discussed here, show: FL Trump +2 AZ Trump +3 MI Trump +2 So I suspect not a surprise to anyone.
A single poll for SD Trump +11
Oh and since I posted some high Texas polling for Biden. University of Texas at Tyler. Biden +3
I personally am putting that one in with Trafalgar as outlier.
Trafalgar of course being the outlier that was right in being the only pollster to have Trump ahead in PA and Michigan in 2016, they have Biden ahead in PA now and more narrowly in Wisconsin and Trump narrowly ahead in Michigan so are still showing a small swing to Biden but not enough of a swing to win the EC which is plausible.
Survey Monkey in another Texas poll has Trump up by 4%, if Biden wins a landslide he could win Texas but only in that scenario
Polls coducted over a period as long as a month are unlikely to be meaningful.
Actually not true, there's been some polls over a similar timeframe that got the results spot on, it's all about getting a representative sample.
Nevertheless there has to be a serious possibility that the early sampling would now be out of date. Few would take notice of polls conducted over a 6 month period.
McEvoy ounds more likely to split the opposition vote than defeat Drakeford to me.
Next years Welsh, Scottish and English local elections look interesting, but I suspect Welsh Labour will hang on. The opposition are simply too split.
I expect that too. Labour will probably hang on. My only point is that there is huge reservoir of people who don't vote. And if they did vote, even in small numbers, they would have a big effect. And that day will come.
Also, though he may suffer the fate of independents, you can see McEvoy's real gift.
"Poverty don't shop on the internet" is just a brilliant slogan -- it is a millstone to hang round Drakeford's neck.
Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.
The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.
Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.
Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).
Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables
Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats
Trump is definitely US Corbyn whilst Biden is Bozo, it is the best of a bad lot choice for the electorate.
Biden really isn’t. He has quite a talented team around him, and decades of political capital to draw on. He also gives a damn. Rather older than would be ideal, sure.
That either of them, or their situations, share characteristics with the situation of the US candidates doesn't mean to say they are identical.
Just not seeing the Johnson/Biden comparison at all. Other than that Biden is about to win an election, too.
It is fairly clear who could vote for Trump if sane so only choice is Biden, similarly who could vote for Corbyn, hence Bozo winning.
I didn’t vote for either of them. If I lived in the US, I’d be phone banking for Biden.
Trump is definitely US Corbyn whilst Biden is Bozo, it is the best of a bad lot choice for the electorate.
Biden really isn’t. He has quite a talented team around him, and decades of political capital to draw on. He also gives a damn. Rather older than would be ideal, sure.
That either of them, or their situations, share characteristics with the situation of the US candidates doesn't mean to say they are identical.
Just not seeing the Johnson/Biden comparison at all. Other than that Biden is about to win an election, too.
It is fairly clear who could vote for Trump if sane so only choice is Biden, similarly who could vote for Corbyn, hence Bozo winning.
I didn’t vote for either of them. If I lived in the US, I’d be phone banking for Biden.
Trump is definitely US Corbyn whilst Biden is Bozo, it is the best of a bad lot choice for the electorate.
Biden really isn’t. He has quite a talented team around him, and decades of political capital to draw on. He also gives a damn. Rather older than would be ideal, sure.
That either of them, or their situations, share characteristics with the situation of the US candidates doesn't mean to say they are identical.
Just not seeing the Johnson/Biden comparison at all. Other than that Biden is about to win an election, too.
It is fairly clear who could vote for Trump if sane so only choice is Biden, similarly who could vote for Corbyn, hence Bozo winning.
I didn’t vote for either of them. If I lived in the US, I’d be phone banking for Biden.
True, there is the draw a big penis on your ballot paper option
McEvoy ounds more likely to split the opposition vote than defeat Drakeford to me.
Next years Welsh, Scottish and English local elections look interesting, but I suspect Welsh Labour will hang on. The opposition are simply too split.
I expect that too. Labour will probably hang on. My only point is that there is huge reservoir of people who don't vote. And if they did vote, even in small numbers, they would have a big effect. And that day will come.
Also, though he may suffer the fate of independents, you can see McEvoy's real gift.
"Poverty don't shop on the internet" is just a brilliant slogan -- it is a millstone to hang round Drakeford's neck.
Turnout for Welsh Assembly elections is barely higher than for local elections. Most people are simply not interested.
Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.
The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.
Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.
Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).
Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables
Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats
Some polling out for the US today. USC has Biden on +10, +12, +10.
Trafalgar has 3 new polls out, which I suspect will be discussed here, show: FL Trump +2 AZ Trump +3 MI Trump +2 So I suspect not a surprise to anyone.
A single poll for SD Trump +11
Oh and since I posted some high Texas polling for Biden. University of Texas at Tyler. Biden +3
I personally am putting that one in with Trafalgar as outlier.
Trafalgar of course being the outlier that was right in being the only pollster to have Trump ahead in PA and Michigan in 2016, they have Biden ahead in PA now and more narrowly in Wisconsin and Trump narrowly ahead in Michigan so are still showing a small swing to Biden but not enough of a swing to win the EC which is plausible.
Survey Monkey in another Texas poll has Trump up by 4%, if Biden wins a landslide he could win Texas but only in that scenario
Polls coducted over a period as long as a month are unlikely to be meaningful.
Actually not true, there's been some polls over a similar timeframe that got the results spot on, it's all about getting a representative sample.
Nevertheless there has to be a serious possibility that the early sampling would now be out of date. Few would take notice of polls conducted over a 6 month period.
Presumably, this Covid Research Group will be filled with eminent virologists, sociologists, mental health professionals, epidemiologists and the like. Who will bring a wide range of expert opinions and detailed peer reviewed research on how to deal with this dreadful disease? Or right wing blowhards with an agenda to push? I await with curiosity. Pity there isn't a betting market on it.
Comments
The govt financial support has on balance been fine, its generally been delivered seemingly late and grudgingly would be my main criticism.
However Trump won Florida by 1.2% and NC by 3.7% so both also had a shy Trump vote, just less so than in the rustbelt
It doesn't matter if they are "missing" the supposed shy Trump voters (who they presumably don't believe exist to the extent that it causes inaccuracy in the polls). However, if you believe they do exist, then you need to believe such voters are 3-4% greater than in 2016 to overcome the other polling methodology changes that have been put in place.
I just do not see how it is possible even to pay 80% of wages until next March.
Of course the public sector continue to receive their pay and benefits alongside pensioners who at present are to be awarded a 2.5% increase next April, while the private sector and large numbers of its employees pay a huge penalty
Everyone should be asking just how that is fair and of course how any future government is able to afford the public sector and pensions is the 'elephant in the room'
Plus that's what the ERG said about leaving the EU.
However, I would ask why you think this debacle has not damaged Drakeford
The electoral fundamentals are not showing any sign that Trump is going to win. To the contrary the large t/o numbers and the reported demographics of those voting suggest a pretty substantial "blue wave".
On the other hand, the determination of so many to suggest that Trump iswinning/can win suggests a) fear b) GOP partizanship c) misunderstanding of the numbers.
If we give any credence to any polling anyway then Biden is in with a solid vote and EC majority and the GOP will also likely lose the Senate.
BUT the risk TSE is pointing out is that the system can be/is being subverted and the confusion will allow Trump to claim an illegitimate victory, based on huge numbers of legimate votes being ignored and wholesale voter suppression and various other forms of electoral corruption.
However these rumours also suit the Dems, since it will motivate the already highly motivated anti-Trump vote to come out across the board to make absolutely sure that the result is indisputible.
I think (and yeah, sure, hope) that evidence is pretty plain that Trump and the GOP are headed for a once in a generation shellacking and even cheating on an industrial scale will not be able to hide a very heavy defeat for the Republicans and especially Trump. So, although there is a real risk of confusion as the interference is repaired, it seems to be a 9 in 10 chance that Biden is elected President in 10 days.
I think all four governments of the UK are struggling with the pandemic.
From my perspective they are doing their best.And in the main fair minded people who put politics to one side give them some slack.
I assume that's a good sign...
Now is it better to pay 80% for a one off year to keep the economy ready for next year when we have a vaccine or pay 30% for multiple years (possibly decades) if we let Covid decimate the economy.
Johnson's error with Rashford, I would hazard cuts much, much deeper. The British sense of fair play has been compromised, and not just in England. It is a horror story for Johnson and more importantly the Conservative Party, it reminds me of the Labour Government's 75p pension rise 15 or so years ago. It looks awful and is difficult to shake off in a hurry.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1320337561580077057
They've also been tested in 2017/18/19 in various elections, like the House, Senate, and assorted other elections like gubernatorial ones.
It was like listening to rime of the ancient mariner.
They also need to have someone to vote for. Negative voting is not part of the system. Who are they going to vote for instead?
Yet the latest 538 average has Biden on 51.9% and the latest RCP average has Biden only on 50.8%, with no major third party candidate this year where are the missing voters given Trump is currently only on 42.9% with 538 and 42.7% with RCP?
I would suggest they are shy Trumps
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
In the IT sector I usually work in the community is actually very good at both the skilling up of resources and providing incentives for companies to innovate worldwide.
Paragraph 2. Not a good look for Drakeford, but soon forgotten, possibly after the next catastrophe.
If they simply argued that lots of deaths* were the price of freedom, then I might have a little respect**.
*obviously other peoples deaths rather than their own.
** though I would appreciate a bit of acceptance that other people want the freedom to work and shop safely by them keeping clear.
As I said at the time, I would have voted with Labour had I been a conservative mp and of course 5 did with 22 abstaining but unless Boris comes to his senses I really hope the 22 who abstained vote for, along with many more, in the second vote coming up from Labour after recess
I admire Marcus not just because I am a lifelong Man Utd supporter but his crusade is right and has my full backing
However, as I do accept she has done well over covid so far
But otherwise, agreed.
As I have pointed out Drakeford has a highly marginal seat against a populist maverick opponent who is busy making hay while the sun shines.
McEvoy: " it's not about toasters, books, it's about keeping people on board with what's going to be a long drawn out winter, to protect our NHS. Push people too far, and they rebel. It's called reactive abuse. We live in Wales. Know your people. Poverty don't shop on the Internet."
There's the mistake in pitiful glory.
There it is -- KNOW YOUR PEOPLE. POVERTY DON"T SHOP ON THE INTERNET.
Virtually nobody is known, not even Drakeford until now, but that has changed quite dramatically in the last few days and I expect it will play into next May's election
Though not quite the issue lots of people losing their jobs are having at present.
I hope both Boris and Rishi put this right and quickly because it is the correct thing to do
Welsh voters will give their verdict on Drakeford next year, they will not give their verdict on Boris again until 2024 and as Wales voted Leave anyway Brexit is less of a factor than in Scotland
And as everyone seems to think he would only be a single term president, it would be hilarious if he decided to run again, even though he'd be 82.
Eddie Mair's "nasty piece of work" interview was back in 2013.
He has quite a talented team around him, and decades of political capital to draw on. He also gives a damn.
Rather older than would be ideal, sure.
https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1320351489878118401
Next years Welsh, Scottish and English local elections look interesting, but I suspect Welsh Labour will hang on. The opposition are simply too split.
During the Trump period, Mr Johnson has tried to lever influence with other leaders by presenting himself as the man who has the ear of, and can help to interpret, the White House wild man. “Boris Johnson sold himself as the Trump whisperer,” says Jonathan Powell, a diplomat in Washington before he became Tony Blair’s chief of staff. “Without Trump, what is the point of Johnson?” More existentially, the British may ask themselves where his policies have left this country other than looking alone in a dangerous world. Brexit has fractured the relationship with Europe, one pillar of the postwar foreign policy. Now it looks highly likely that the other pillar, a close relationship with the US, will be shuddering.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/25/johnson-dangerously-close-to-one-us-president-wht-if-biden-wins
Other than that Biden is about to win an election, too.
They are a decent pollster - and still have Cornyn +8%.
Plus Rasmussen was more accurate than IBID on the national popular vote in 2016 and their latest national poll is Biden 49% and Trump 46%
Also, though he may suffer the fate of independents, you can see McEvoy's real gift.
"Poverty don't shop on the internet" is just a brilliant slogan -- it is a millstone to hang round Drakeford's neck.
OR DOES HE?!
https://twitter.com/justincbzz/status/1320351112734609410
Continues for several pages...
If I lived in the US, I’d be phone banking for Biden.
Any more ideas?
Meanwhile Click and Collect at Waitrose was a breeze. All sorted in the car park.
Or right wing blowhards with an agenda to push?
I await with curiosity.
Pity there isn't a betting market on it.
Lock him up.
IBD/TIPP over the last 5 days
25th October (Today):Biden 51.6% (+0.9%)
Trump 44.4% (+0.1%)
24th October (Yesterday):
Biden 50.7% (+0.9%)
Trump 44.3% (-0.9%)
23rd October:
Biden 49.8% (-0.2%)
Trump 45.2% (+0.2%)
22nd October:
Biden 50% (+1.5%)
Trump 45% (-1%)
21st October:
Biden 48.5%
Trump 46%