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My logic for bailing out of the spread betting markets on this year’s White House Race – politicalbe
My logic for bailing out of the spread betting markets on this year’s White House Race – politicalbetting.com
?? Calling Florida voters! We’re seeing high levels of rejected mail-in ballots. Make sure your vote is counted by tracking your ballot and curing any issues if necessary. https://t.co/WBq3od6cjW pic.twitter.com/Yqskvm4lam
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This tweet by Thurgood Marshall Institute to Florida voters is EXCELLENT advice. Most US jurisdictions have some sort of on-line tracking system; I used the King Co Elections ballot tracker yesterday to confirm that MY ballot has been received, verified and accepted for counting.
Personally think "high levels" means that the NUMBERS of ballots with issues that will prevent them from being counted UNLESS voters take required action to correct them, such as supplying missing signatures or other info. Which is natural given the fact that early voting totals in FL are up by over 2 million compared to 2016.
Note that this August my own primary ballot was "challenged" by election workers, for the good reason that I forgot to sign the envelope. BUT they notified me AND told me how to fix the problem, which I did and my vote was counted.
One key fact about early voting is, the sooner you do it, the more time you (and your elections office) have to fix any problems with your ballot, thus increasing the odds that it will be accepted and included in the final results.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8874563/amp/Trump-calls-Sacha-Baron-Cohen-unfunny-creep-new-film-leaves-White-House-red-faced.html
Letting politicians micromanage the process of the election itself is really not a good idea.
Who'd have guessed that they act in partisan ways with all sorts of shenanagins to try and ensure their party wins the elections? Somewhere the UK system works well, run mostly by civil servants.
Lou Dobbs Calls for Vote Against Lindsey Graham: “He Has Betrayed the American People”
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/10/lou-dobbs-slams-lindsey-graham-betrayed-trump.html
...“Graham has betrayed President Trump at almost every turn,” Dobbs said. “He has betrayed the American people and his oath of office. He’s done absolutely nothing to investigate Obamagate except to tell everyone, ‘Stay tuned.’ Time and time again, ‘Stay tuned.’ Sen. Graham needs to be tuned out in South Carolina.”
In what was likely a particularly hurtful dig for the senator, Dobbs dug up the archives and reminded viewers that Trump wasn’t a fan of Graham back in the 2016 campaign. He even put a Trump quote up on the screen: “I think Lindsey Graham is a disgrace, and I think you have one of the worst representatives of any representative in the United States … He’s one of the dumbest human beings I’ve ever seen.”
Dobbs’ words reflect how Trump and his fans had been hoping there would be “some last-minute Jim Comey-like intervention in this election,” noted the New York Times’ Peter Baker on MSNBC. “This frustration that Lou Dobbs is expressing at Lindsey Graham you would think perhaps reflects something that the president himself feels or people around the president feel, that there should have been something to have derailed Biden by now.”...
Remarkable guy, and boss from hell:
http://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=298148
https://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/index.html
I mention this, because this analysis got it spot on then - and therefore similar analysis now might be very useful.
I'm more than ever convinced that Biden is going to win big, therefore rendering redundant worries about the result.
Like with Texas, we're seeing a lot of early voting. In 2016, you were seeing about 150k early votes per day; this year, you're seeing 250-300k.
To put it in context for a second, between Trump and Clinton there were about 4.55 million votes cast in 2016. We're already basically at 3 million, and rising at 250k per day.
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/10/24/the-polling-gets-tighter-and-tighter-in-texas-yet-on-betfair-biden-is-still-a-27-chance/
Note too what Robert says below re. North Carolina.
Great tips by the Smithsons!
President Trump will be pleased that African American turnout is at 2016 levels (21% of total ballots cast) and not at 2012 levels (27%). But he'll be displeased by how few men have turned out so far: there's a 12 point gap between male and female turnout.
Now, I would expect more Republicans to turn out on the day than Democrats. But still the numbers so far look - on balance - reasonably good for the Democrats.
Let me put this in context for a second. If you assume that the Democrats get 100% of registered Democrats (they won't) and 50% of Unaffiliated voters (they might get more), then they will pass their 2016 vote total off early voting alone by the end of Thursday. And there will still, one would think, be a reasonable number of Democrats who vote on the day.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/campaign-chronicles/will-trumps-law-and-order-message-work-in-wisconsins-white-suburbs
This isn't going to be close. Joe Biden is going to win handsomely. A number of senate races will flip giving the Democrats full control of both houses.
The markets are skewed by normalcy bias with a fair few punters who just assume things will happen like last time. My biggest ever betting error derived from the same mistake: I assumed Corbyn would perform in 2019 as he had in 2015. This is a human failing. We are conditioned to normalcy. The circumstances this time are completely different from 2016 and Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton.
The polls are not lying. They're not mistaken. They are not even simply 'opinion' polls anymore. Many of them are effectively exit polls: actual reports on how people have voted constitute well over 1/3rd of the figures and, in some cases, well over half.
When you get a disparity between the markets and polls like this is offers a fantastic betting opportunity. Sure, in two horse races you're not going to get eye-popping odds but there's money to be made here if you have the courage.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/24/johnson-will-wait-for-us-election-result-before-no-deal-brexit-decision
If Biden wins (he will) it leaves Johnson, and England, weaker and more isolated than ever.
The winter difference between 3 and 4 hours' time difference (we don't change the clocks this far south) is much bigger that it ought to be - when people in London start work at 1pm rather than midday, and at the other end of the day there's a huge difference between an evening football match that finishes at 12:45am and one that finishes at 1:45am!
Mr. Sandpit, I have two chronological sources of information by my bed. One of them automatically updated with the right time. The other did not.
Mildly amused to be up at just after 5am on a Sunday.
Edited extra bit: maybe that should be chronographic.
Today could be the day that your long-held bet on LH becoming the all-time wins leader pays out!
I'm likely betting on a safety car (nature of the track, and limited marshal posts), and Leclerc for the podium (he starts on the medium tyres, as do the Mercs but not the Red Bulls).
Yes, a low number of finishers does seem likely here, rather as at Mugello there's a good chance of half the midfield running into each other on the first lap or after a restart.
Conversely, LH for a points finish is usually around 1.15, he's got 45 of them consecutively so far, and there doesn't seem any reason why his otherwise reliable car will choose today to let him down.
On that note, have a good morning all, some of us have work to do on Sundays!
Not a fan of odds so short, though...
And the top 6 market on Ladbrokes is greyed out. Leclerc's current price is 1.91, which I expect to change but if it stays that's very nice.
Oh, and cheers on the Hamilton tip mention. That was simply mispriced a couple of years ago. He was on about 72 wins or so and winning 10 a season, so odds of 8 or 9 were just wrong.
But @Sandpit is right that if it's hard to tell the difference, then there's something wrong somewhere...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8876311/SARAH-VINE-No10-let-free-school-meals-turn-dogs-dinner.html
From a politician's point of view, where's the upside? For a Stalinist control freak, on the other hand...
Download the 4 gig csv file from the site and get exactly who voted in every election since 2008. Getting aggregate counts of 2012 voted, 2016 DNV, 2020 voted split by party registration? Basic. I will give you every single one of their names and addresses and the exact date they voted.
https://twitter.com/LeeHurstComic/status/1319901736195293185?s=20
I ran some errands in town yesterday, in the main shopping centre (Highcross) mask adherence was close to 100%. Indeed it looked like a normal Saturday otherwise, despite being Tier 2. At Tesco in Hamilton it was poor indeed, lots without masks, poor social distancing, and shop staff not challenging customers. It seems that they have been told not to do so. I am not going there again.
Baroness Harding, the Tory peer who leads the government’s much-criticised test-and-trace programme, should be removed and replaced, a senior Conservative MP has said. Sir Bernard Jenkin, MP for Harwich and chair of the powerful parliamentary liaison committee, called for her to be given a “well-earned rest” and moved on to focus on “lessons learned”.
He warned of a “vacuum of leadership in test and trace, which is destroying public confidence and compliance”, it was reported on Saturday evening. He went on to criticise the handling of calls and data in a “spaghetti of command and control” at the top of the organisation.
Otherwise, of course, we'll shortly be told which brand of cloven hoof polish he uses, and that won't be 'acceptable', either!
Betting PostF1: backed Leclerc for a podium at 5.9, set up a hedge at 2.5.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2020/10/portugal-pre-race-2020.html
We know why so many more people are voting early by mail - because of the virus and the risks of voting on the day. Given the politicisation of the crisis in the US, you’d expect more Dems to be worried about the virus than Reps. It also seems credible that more women are worried (giving the greater likelihood of spreading it through the family) than men.
The virus is the principal driver of these changing patterns of voting, rather than VI.
Cut out the word 'quaint' and they got it spot on.
Russell George, the Tory AM who helpfully suggested to Mark Drakeford his hugely unpopular supermarket policy, now denies it was anything to do with him.
"I don't support the Welsh Government's approach to banning non-essential sales in Welsh shops, I’m the one that got the FM to admit his plans! Retail should be open, the National lockdown is wrong approach "
I love the way Russell describes Drakeford implementing Russell's bad idea as getting "the FM to admit his plans! " Genius.
And HMRC'S new export system's aren't even scheduled to enter testing until 1st July next year.
Glad you enjoyed the Beach Boys songs. The beautiful genius behind the group is anti Trump, the less talented cousin who owns the rights to the name... is
https://globalnews.ca/news/7405198/brian-wilson-beach-boys-donald-trump-fundraiser/
and we all live happily ever after
This week the R number has started to move back down for the country as a whole, which was before any impact of Starmer's politicking, Burnham's self-promotion, or Drakeford's petty-authoritarian flappery.
Can't comment on chippy Nicky - I've been ignoring her.
16 October - 1.3-1.5 range.
23 October - 1.2-1.4 range,
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54567867
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Which would seem to indicate that the existing - much maligned by those who gain by such maligning - measures are actually having an impact.
Let's not mistake politics for something that is actually needed.
He raised the point that it was "unfair" on small shops that supermarkets were open and could sell items while independent clothing and hardware retailers were shut.
Drakeford then said, in response to his question,
"In the first set of restrictions people were reasonably understanding of the fact that supermarkets didn’t close all the things that they may have needed to. I don’t think that people will be as understanding this time and we will be making it clear to supermarkets that they are only able to open those parts of their business that provide essential goods to people and that will not include some of the things that Russell George mentioned which other people are prevented from selling."
So, I think you are right.
Russell George raised the problem, but the solution & its implementation is due to Drakeford.
More likely, Johnson has finally realised that his choice is No Deal or basically the deal the EU had in mind all along, neither of which is pleasant to him. No Deal will be chaos, and the Deal is a pig, with a voucher to buy lipstick in a Welsh supermarket.
Johnson is hopeless in "least bad option" decisions, presumably because he has ducked them all his life. Hence his rubbish response to the virus.
Letting the US electorate take control of Brexit is totally in character for the PM.
The media have found plenty of examples.
It is easy to bear the privations of others, especially if you have wandered out of the moneyed affluence of a PG Wodehouse novel -- like a large fraction of the commentators on pb.com.
Fits what we know of the man though.
I'm not sure he expected Drakeford's 'solution' to be keeping the small shops closed, sealing off half the supermarket shelves and sending everyone to Amazon.
I understand Labour are to arrange a second vote on free school meals after the recess and it is inconceivable to me that conservative mps will not back the amendment, especially as it will be framed that it is over the Christmas holidays.
I really hope HMG do another u turn but I would say this last week with the interventions of Andy Burnham and Marcus Rashford who have dialled into the public mood must have seen conservative mps, especially in the red wall seats, start to rebel against the leadership
And in Wales the supermarket non essential sales ban petition has now reached 47,007 by some margin the highest vote ever recorded by a Senedd petition
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/24/army-drafted-help-covid-response-tier-3-areas-combat-second/
Coming to a locality near you soon folks.
Furious backpedaling on Monday from Drakeford no doubt. My take is George's point is fundamentally correct, but by over reacting the WG have brought the whole fire break idea crashing down around them, which is a shame. When Drakeford does U turn, every man and his dog will be queuing to browse for tat at Tesco.
It is a big win for Russell George, the Welsh Tories, Boris and the English based media.
(Telegraph)
No local leaders should accept going into Tier 3 until Johnson spells this out. It looks to me like once an area is in, it will not come out again until a vaccine. That could be late spring.
We should be told.
https://twitter.com/ruskin147/status/1320268409435836416
Don't worry, industry would be in a horrendous mess by now with nothing decided and just weeks to go. Would be had industry not already concluded that we will remain on the same terms as we have now as capitulation is the only way forward.
As my new Romanian overlords put it when I suggested allowing for Brexit contingencies, even if we wanted to no deal we can't impose checks & tariffs as we don't have the people, systems and infrastructure to do so. Which means our "no deal" threat is no threat at all.
"Isn't the PM wearing marvellous new Brexit clothes!" say the handful of remaining Brexit cheerleaders. "What clothes? We can see his cock" says Barnier...
Eventually, denial has to run out of road.
The reply I got was wholly more sensible than anything the Welsh Govt is capable of.