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My logic for bailing out of the spread betting markets on this year’s White House Race – politicalbe

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited October 2020 in General
My logic for bailing out of the spread betting markets on this year’s White House Race – politicalbetting.com

?? Calling Florida voters! We’re seeing high levels of rejected mail-in ballots. Make sure your vote is counted by tracking your ballot and curing any issues if necessary. https://t.co/WBq3od6cjW pic.twitter.com/Yqskvm4lam

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited October 2020
    Richard III?

    Letting politicians micromanage the process of the election itself is really not a good idea.

    Who'd have guessed that they act in partisan ways with all sorts of shenanagins to try and ensure their party wins the elections? Somewhere the UK system works well, run mostly by civil servants.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    Rats in a sack.

    Lou Dobbs Calls for Vote Against Lindsey Graham: “He Has Betrayed the American People”
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/10/lou-dobbs-slams-lindsey-graham-betrayed-trump.html
    ...“Graham has betrayed President Trump at almost every turn,” Dobbs said. “He has betrayed the American people and his oath of office. He’s done absolutely nothing to investigate Obamagate except to tell everyone, ‘Stay tuned.’ Time and time again, ‘Stay tuned.’ Sen. Graham needs to be tuned out in South Carolina.”

    In what was likely a particularly hurtful dig for the senator, Dobbs dug up the archives and reminded viewers that Trump wasn’t a fan of Graham back in the 2016 campaign. He even put a Trump quote up on the screen: “I think Lindsey Graham is a disgrace, and I think you have one of the worst representatives of any representative in the United States … He’s one of the dumbest human beings I’ve ever seen.”

    Dobbs’ words reflect how Trump and his fans had been hoping there would be “some last-minute Jim Comey-like intervention in this election,” noted the New York Times’ Peter Baker on MSNBC. “This frustration that Lou Dobbs is expressing at Lindsey Graham you would think perhaps reflects something that the president himself feels or people around the president feel, that there should have been something to have derailed Biden by now.”...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    Chairman of Samsung dies.
    Remarkable guy, and boss from hell:
    http://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=298148
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    This is a great piece of analysis for North Carolina from 2016, showing Clinton struggling with early voting:

    https://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/index.html

    I mention this, because this analysis got it spot on then - and therefore similar analysis now might be very useful.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited October 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    This is a great piece of analysis for North Carolina from 2016, showing Clinton struggling with early voting:

    https://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/index.html

    I mention this, because this analysis got it spot on then - and therefore similar analysis now might be very useful.

    Agreed

    I'm more than ever convinced that Biden is going to win big, therefore rendering redundant worries about the result.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    On the subject of North Carolina, this site is *very* interesting looking at voting trends there: https://www.ncsbe.gov/results-data/election-results/voter-turnout-statistics

    Like with Texas, we're seeing a lot of early voting. In 2016, you were seeing about 150k early votes per day; this year, you're seeing 250-300k.

    To put it in context for a second, between Trump and Clinton there were about 4.55 million votes cast in 2016. We're already basically at 3 million, and rising at 250k per day.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    And I've just seen Mike's Texas thread. If you haven't read it, this remains a fantastic betting opportunity.

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/10/24/the-polling-gets-tighter-and-tighter-in-texas-yet-on-betfair-biden-is-still-a-27-chance/

    Note too what Robert says below re. North Carolina.

    Great tips by the Smithsons!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of North Carolina, this site is *very* interesting looking at voting trends there: https://www.ncsbe.gov/results-data/election-results/voter-turnout-statistics

    Like with Texas, we're seeing a lot of early voting. In 2016, you were seeing about 150k early votes per day; this year, you're seeing 250-300k.

    To put it in context for a second, between Trump and Clinton there were about 4.55 million votes cast in 2016. We're already basically at 3 million, and rising at 250k per day.

    Digging into the numbers a bit, there is good news for both Trump and Biden in the votes already cast in North Carolina: https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/Press/NC Absentee Stats for 2020 General Election/Absentee_Stats_2020General_10242020.pdf

    President Trump will be pleased that African American turnout is at 2016 levels (21% of total ballots cast) and not at 2012 levels (27%). But he'll be displeased by how few men have turned out so far: there's a 12 point gap between male and female turnout.

    Now, I would expect more Republicans to turn out on the day than Democrats. But still the numbers so far look - on balance - reasonably good for the Democrats.

    Let me put this in context for a second. If you assume that the Democrats get 100% of registered Democrats (they won't) and 50% of Unaffiliated voters (they might get more), then they will pass their 2016 vote total off early voting alone by the end of Thursday. And there will still, one would think, be a reasonable number of Democrats who vote on the day.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,727

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    And interesting account from Wisconsin, which suggests that the forecast of a Democratic win is likely correct.
    https://www.newyorker.com/news/campaign-chronicles/will-trumps-law-and-order-message-work-in-wisconsins-white-suburbs
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited October 2020
    I'll stick my neck out a bit further on this. The signs are there for everyone to read. Put away your 2016 glasses and have 2020 vision.

    This isn't going to be close. Joe Biden is going to win handsomely. A number of senate races will flip giving the Democrats full control of both houses.

    The markets are skewed by normalcy bias with a fair few punters who just assume things will happen like last time. My biggest ever betting error derived from the same mistake: I assumed Corbyn would perform in 2019 as he had in 2015. This is a human failing. We are conditioned to normalcy. The circumstances this time are completely different from 2016 and Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton.

    The polls are not lying. They're not mistaken. They are not even simply 'opinion' polls anymore. Many of them are effectively exit polls: actual reports on how people have voted constitute well over 1/3rd of the figures and, in some cases, well over half.

    When you get a disparity between the markets and polls like this is offers a fantastic betting opportunity. Sure, in two horse races you're not going to get eye-popping odds but there's money to be made here if you have the courage.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    On a related topic to what's happening in the biggest betting event over the next 3 or 4 years, the Observer is carrying an interesting report that Johnson is awaiting the US result to determine whether he goes for a No Deal Brexit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/24/johnson-will-wait-for-us-election-result-before-no-deal-brexit-decision

    If Biden wins (he will) it leaves Johnson, and England, weaker and more isolated than ever.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Ah, just realised it's extra-hour-in-bed day. Hope you all enjoyed it!

    The winter difference between 3 and 4 hours' time difference (we don't change the clocks this far south) is much bigger that it ought to be - when people in London start work at 1pm rather than midday, and at the other end of the day there's a huge difference between an evening football match that finishes at 12:45am and one that finishes at 1:45am!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    edited October 2020
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Sandpit, I have two chronological sources of information by my bed. One of them automatically updated with the right time. The other did not.

    Mildly amused to be up at just after 5am on a Sunday.

    Edited extra bit: maybe that should be chronographic.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited October 2020

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Sandpit, I have two chronological sources of information by my bed. One of them automatically updated with the right time. The other did not.

    Mildly amused to be up at just after 5am on a Sunday.

    Edited extra bit: maybe that should be chronographic.

    The F1 race starts when one of them says 1pm and the other 2pm :)

    Today could be the day that your long-held bet on LH becoming the all-time wins leader pays out!

    I'm likely betting on a safety car (nature of the track, and limited marshal posts), and Leclerc for the podium (he starts on the medium tyres, as do the Mercs but not the Red Bulls).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Sandpit, ha that's quite a coincidence (or not) as two of the four bets I have marked up to check for odds are a safety car and Leclerc for the podium. The others are a low number of classified finishers, and Leclerc to be top 6.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited October 2020

    Mr. Sandpit, ha that's quite a coincidence (or not) as two of the four bets I have marked up to check for odds are a safety car and Leclerc for the podium. The others are a low number of classified finishers, and Leclerc to be top 6.

    Great minds! ;)

    Yes, a low number of finishers does seem likely here, rather as at Mugello there's a good chance of half the midfield running into each other on the first lap or after a restart.

    Conversely, LH for a points finish is usually around 1.15, he's got 45 of them consecutively so far, and there doesn't seem any reason why his otherwise reliable car will choose today to let him down.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Am I the only one who really can't work out what's parody and what's reality any more? https://twitter.com/TitaniaMcGrath/status/1319638865620160512

    On that note, have a good morning all, some of us have work to do on Sundays!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Sandpit, because the BLM cult thinks segregation is the way to fight racism.

    Not a fan of odds so short, though...

    And the top 6 market on Ladbrokes is greyed out. Leclerc's current price is 1.91, which I expect to change but if it stays that's very nice.

    Oh, and cheers on the Hamilton tip mention. That was simply mispriced a couple of years ago. He was on about 72 wins or so and winning 10 a season, so odds of 8 or 9 were just wrong.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    Mr. Sandpit, because the BLM cult thinks segregation is the way to fight racism.

    Not a fan of odds so short, though...

    And the top 6 market on Ladbrokes is greyed out. Leclerc's current price is 1.91, which I expect to change but if it stays that's very nice.

    Oh, and cheers on the Hamilton tip mention. That was simply mispriced a couple of years ago. He was on about 72 wins or so and winning 10 a season, so odds of 8 or 9 were just wrong.

    It is satire (in this case), rather than reality.

    But @Sandpit is right that if it's hard to tell the difference, then there's something wrong somewhere...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. 1000, ah, cheers.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited October 2020
    The Tits post is satire, the actual contents of the picture sadly aren't.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    rcs1000 said:

    Mr. Sandpit, because the BLM cult thinks segregation is the way to fight racism.

    Not a fan of odds so short, though...

    And the top 6 market on Ladbrokes is greyed out. Leclerc's current price is 1.91, which I expect to change but if it stays that's very nice.

    Oh, and cheers on the Hamilton tip mention. That was simply mispriced a couple of years ago. He was on about 72 wins or so and winning 10 a season, so odds of 8 or 9 were just wrong.

    It is satire (in this case), rather than reality.

    But @Sandpit is right that if it's hard to tell the difference, then there's something wrong somewhere...
    The comment may be satire, but the picture is real. That's the worrying bit.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    The Tits post is satire, the actual picture itself sadly isn't.

    According the Twitter thread, the picture is satire too. But in these strange times... who knows?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    rcs1000 said:

    Mr. Sandpit, because the BLM cult thinks segregation is the way to fight racism.

    Not a fan of odds so short, though...

    And the top 6 market on Ladbrokes is greyed out. Leclerc's current price is 1.91, which I expect to change but if it stays that's very nice.

    Oh, and cheers on the Hamilton tip mention. That was simply mispriced a couple of years ago. He was on about 72 wins or so and winning 10 a season, so odds of 8 or 9 were just wrong.

    It is satire (in this case), rather than reality.

    But @Sandpit is right that if it's hard to tell the difference, then there's something wrong somewhere...
    It's for real i think

    This is racial segregation in 2020. The @KingCountyWA library system is holding "separate but equal" training sessions for its employees—all in the name of social justice.

    It's time for @TheJusticeDept to put a stop to this madness. pic.twitter.com/4nFPHF44vJ

    — Christopher F. Rufo ⚔️ (@realchrisrufo) October 22, 2020
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Mr. Sandpit, because the BLM cult thinks segregation is the way to fight racism.

    Not a fan of odds so short, though...

    And the top 6 market on Ladbrokes is greyed out. Leclerc's current price is 1.91, which I expect to change but if it stays that's very nice.

    Oh, and cheers on the Hamilton tip mention. That was simply mispriced a couple of years ago. He was on about 72 wins or so and winning 10 a season, so odds of 8 or 9 were just wrong.

    It is satire (in this case), rather than reality.

    But @Sandpit is right that if it's hard to tell the difference, then there's something wrong somewhere...
    It's for real i think

    This is racial segregation in 2020. The @KingCountyWA library system is holding "separate but equal" training sessions for its employees—all in the name of social justice.

    It's time for @TheJusticeDept to put a stop to this madness. pic.twitter.com/4nFPHF44vJ

    — Christopher F. Rufo ⚔️ (@realchrisrufo) October 22, 2020
    Then I stand corrected.
  • .
    Scott_xP said:


    OK I might have been wrong to blame Gove and Cummings for digging the FSM hole. Sarah Vine (Gove's other half) suggests it is Marcus Rashford who is on the side of One Nation Conservatism.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8876311/SARAH-VINE-No10-let-free-school-meals-turn-dogs-dinner.html
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    .

    Scott_xP said:


    OK I might have been wrong to blame Gove and Cummings for digging the FSM hole. Sarah Vine (Gove's other half) suggests it is Marcus Rashford who is on the side of One Nation Conservatism.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8876311/SARAH-VINE-No10-let-free-school-meals-turn-dogs-dinner.html
    Digging it at Johnson's behest for Sunak to fall into, is my take.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    edited October 2020
    IshmaelZ said:

    .

    Scott_xP said:


    OK I might have been wrong to blame Gove and Cummings for digging the FSM hole. Sarah Vine (Gove's other half) suggests it is Marcus Rashford who is on the side of One Nation Conservatism.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8876311/SARAH-VINE-No10-let-free-school-meals-turn-dogs-dinner.html
    Digging it at Johnson's behest for Sunak to fall into, is my take.
    The reason I blamed Gove and Cummings is they have form on school meals ten years back with Jamie Oliver, and I am still inclined to blame Cummings. While I can see Boris dismissing Rashford as an irritant, does Boris really care about free school meals one way or the other? It might be a trap for Sunak but it seems unlikely.

    From a politician's point of view, where's the upside? For a Stalinist control freak, on the other hand...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729
    edited October 2020
    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Mr. Sandpit, because the BLM cult thinks segregation is the way to fight racism.

    Not a fan of odds so short, though...

    And the top 6 market on Ladbrokes is greyed out. Leclerc's current price is 1.91, which I expect to change but if it stays that's very nice.

    Oh, and cheers on the Hamilton tip mention. That was simply mispriced a couple of years ago. He was on about 72 wins or so and winning 10 a season, so odds of 8 or 9 were just wrong.

    It is satire (in this case), rather than reality.

    But @Sandpit is right that if it's hard to tell the difference, then there's something wrong somewhere...
    It's for real i think

    This is racial segregation in 2020. The @KingCountyWA library system is holding "separate but equal" training sessions for its employees—all in the name of social justice.

    It's time for @TheJusticeDept to put a stop to this madness. pic.twitter.com/4nFPHF44vJ

    — Christopher F. Rufo ⚔️ (@realchrisrufo) October 22, 2020
    Isn’t that unconstitutional under Brown v Board of Education?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729

    IshmaelZ said:

    .

    Scott_xP said:


    OK I might have been wrong to blame Gove and Cummings for digging the FSM hole. Sarah Vine (Gove's other half) suggests it is Marcus Rashford who is on the side of One Nation Conservatism.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8876311/SARAH-VINE-No10-let-free-school-meals-turn-dogs-dinner.html
    Digging it at Johnson's behest for Sunak to fall into, is my take.
    The reason I blamed Gove and Cummings is they have form on school meals ten years back with Jamie Oliver, and I am still inclined to blame Cummings. While I can see Boris dismissing Rashford as an irritant, does Boris really care about free school meals one way or the other? It might be a trap for Sunak but it seems unlikely.

    From a politician's point of view, where's the upside? For a spectacularly stupid Stalinist control freak who wrongly believes himself to be a master strategist, on the other hand...
    FTFY :smile:
  • .

    Scott_xP said:


    OK I might have been wrong to blame Gove and Cummings for digging the FSM hole. Sarah Vine (Gove's other half) suggests it is Marcus Rashford who is on the side of One Nation Conservatism.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8876311/SARAH-VINE-No10-let-free-school-meals-turn-dogs-dinner.html
    Stuff like that sounds a bit better before rather than après le clusterfuque.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of North Carolina, this site is *very* interesting looking at voting trends there: https://www.ncsbe.gov/results-data/election-results/voter-turnout-statistics

    Like with Texas, we're seeing a lot of early voting. In 2016, you were seeing about 150k early votes per day; this year, you're seeing 250-300k.

    To put it in context for a second, between Trump and Clinton there were about 4.55 million votes cast in 2016. We're already basically at 3 million, and rising at 250k per day.

    Please rcs, looking at the aggregates? That's amateur hour.

    Download the 4 gig csv file from the site and get exactly who voted in every election since 2008. Getting aggregate counts of 2012 voted, 2016 DNV, 2020 voted split by party registration? Basic. I will give you every single one of their names and addresses and the exact date they voted.
  • The patron saint of hilarious right wing comedy a mask freedom fighter? Who could have predicted...

    https://twitter.com/LeeHurstComic/status/1319901736195293185?s=20
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,920
    edited October 2020

    The patron saint of hilarious right wing comedy a mask freedom fighter? Who could have predicted...

    https://twitter.com/LeeHurstComic/status/1319901736195293185?s=20

    What a hero! And it’s sad indictment of our benighted times that he has to acclaim himself, rather then the acclamation of his valour coming from a suitably impressed witness.
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 582
    I am enjoying the "Mail on Sunday's" hatchet job on Mark Drakeford. Not only is he a close friend of Corbyn, a Republican and an Atheist but he is a keen player of the ukulele. (And I bet he eats pizza with pineapple as well).
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I don't want to shock anyone here but perusing the NC early voting data I see that no less than Four Hundred and Twelve people of the age 120 years old have cast their early vote.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,050
    edited October 2020

    The patron saint of hilarious right wing comedy a mask freedom fighter? Who could have predicted...

    https://twitter.com/LeeHurstComic/status/1319901736195293185?s=20

    What a complete and utter dickhead.

    I ran some errands in town yesterday, in the main shopping centre (Highcross) mask adherence was close to 100%. Indeed it looked like a normal Saturday otherwise, despite being Tier 2. At Tesco in Hamilton it was poor indeed, lots without masks, poor social distancing, and shop staff not challenging customers. It seems that they have been told not to do so. I am not going there again.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    BBC reporting that the Sunday Times claims that Bozo is going to wait and let US voters decide our Brexit fate; Trump re-election means no deal, Biden means compromise deal.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    In other news....

    Baroness Harding, the Tory peer who leads the government’s much-criticised test-and-trace programme, should be removed and replaced, a senior Conservative MP has said. Sir Bernard Jenkin, MP for Harwich and chair of the powerful parliamentary liaison committee, called for her to be given a “well-earned rest” and moved on to focus on “lessons learned”.

    He warned of a “vacuum of leadership in test and trace, which is destroying public confidence and compliance”, it was reported on Saturday evening. He went on to criticise the handling of calls and data in a “spaghetti of command and control” at the top of the organisation.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,050
    Alistair said:

    I don't want to shock anyone here but perusing the NC early voting data I see that no less than Four Hundred and Twelve people of the age 120 years old have cast their early vote.

    Lots born in 1900? Is that from default date of birth? In Leicester, people of unknown date of birth are registered as 1 Jan, which does make for some anomalies.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    edited October 2020
    SandraMc said:

    I am enjoying the "Mail on Sunday's" hatchet job on Mark Drakeford. Not only is he a close friend of Corbyn, a Republican and an Atheist but he is a keen player of the ukulele. (And I bet he eats pizza with pineapple as well).

    Not sure that playing the ukulele is a 'down' for Mail readers. Ukulele playing is quite popular among 'u3a' members and that age group includes, I fear, quite a few Mail readers.
    Otherwise, of course, we'll shortly be told which brand of cloven hoof polish he uses, and that won't be 'acceptable', either!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Betting Post

    F1: backed Leclerc for a podium at 5.9, set up a hedge at 2.5.

    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2020/10/portugal-pre-race-2020.html
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,050
    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting that the Sunday Times claims that Bozo is going to wait and let US voters decide our Brexit fate; Trump re-election means no deal, Biden means compromise deal.

    With Congress controlled by the Dems, that seems rather foolhardy. BoZo is a fool though not a particularly hardy one.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting that the Sunday Times claims that Bozo is going to wait and let US voters decide our Brexit fate; Trump re-election means no deal, Biden means compromise deal.

    Johnson trusts Trump? I knew he was bonkers, but .......
  • IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting that the Sunday Times claims that Bozo is going to wait and let US voters decide our Brexit fate; Trump re-election means no deal, Biden means compromise deal.

    Much as Trump digging his heels in and setting legal and militia dogs on the system to stay in power would be horrific, watching BJ in a quandary about how to play it would be small silver lining.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting that the Sunday Times claims that Bozo is going to wait and let US voters decide our Brexit fate; Trump re-election means no deal, Biden means compromise deal.

    With Congress controlled by the Dems, that seems rather foolhardy. BoZo is a fool though not a particularly hardy one.
    I guess he’s now too lazy to be writing two letters?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited October 2020

    On a related topic to what's happening in the biggest betting event over the next 3 or 4 years, the Observer is carrying an interesting report that Johnson is awaiting the US result to determine whether he goes for a No Deal Brexit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/24/johnson-will-wait-for-us-election-result-before-no-deal-brexit-decision

    If Biden wins (he will) it leaves Johnson, and England, weaker and more isolated than ever.

    I remember reading in 'Campaign' shortly before the referendum that Brexit would leave us like 'a quaint theme park in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean' .

    Cut out the word 'quaint' and they got it spot on.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136


    If Biden wins (he will) it leaves Johnson, and England, weaker and more isolated than ever.

    On the plus side there will be a functioning WTO...

  • If Biden wins (he will) it leaves Johnson, and England, weaker and more isolated than ever.

    On the plus side there will be a functioning WTO...


    If Biden wins (he will) it leaves Johnson, and England, weaker and more isolated than ever.

    On the plus side there will be a functioning WTO...
    Really? The USA hasnt followed the 2003 ruling that they owe Antigua $21m per year, over $300m by now under any of their presidencies. If the big powers simply ignore rulings against them the court is pretty much worthless. Not sure why you think Biden will change that?
  • .

    Scott_xP said:


    OK I might have been wrong to blame Gove and Cummings for digging the FSM hole. Sarah Vine (Gove's other half) suggests it is Marcus Rashford who is on the side of One Nation Conservatism.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8876311/SARAH-VINE-No10-let-free-school-meals-turn-dogs-dinner.html
    That is very good
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729
    Is anyone else having enormous difficulty getting anything to do with Google to work effectively? On my computer Chrome and Drive both seem to be out.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Doethur, seems to be ok, touch wood, for me.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Russell George, the Tory AM who helpfully suggested to Mark Drakeford his hugely unpopular supermarket policy, now denies it was anything to do with him.

    "I don't support the Welsh Government's approach to banning non-essential sales in Welsh shops, I’m the one that got the FM to admit his plans! Retail should be open, the National lockdown is wrong approach "

    I love the way Russell describes Drakeford implementing Russell's bad idea as getting "the FM to admit his plans! " Genius.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting that the Sunday Times claims that Bozo is going to wait and let US voters decide our Brexit fate; Trump re-election means no deal, Biden means compromise deal.

    Much as Trump digging his heels in and setting legal and militia dogs on the system to stay in power would be horrific, watching BJ in a quandary about how to play it would be small silver lining.
    9 weeks to go and no one knows what paperwork needs to be sent with exports (or imports) on Jan 1st.

    And HMRC'S new export system's aren't even scheduled to enter testing until 1st July next year.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,721
    @kinabalu

    Glad you enjoyed the Beach Boys songs. The beautiful genius behind the group is anti Trump, the less talented cousin who owns the rights to the name... is

    https://globalnews.ca/news/7405198/brian-wilson-beach-boys-donald-trump-fundraiser/
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting that the Sunday Times claims that Bozo is going to wait and let US voters decide our Brexit fate; Trump re-election means no deal, Biden means compromise deal.

    Ideal scenario ..... Biden wins tells UK to go to hell in a handcart.... the economy nosedives... Johnson deposed.... general election ...PM Starmer promises another Referendum..... re-enter wins..... EU agrees subject to joining Schengen and the euro....


    and we all live happily ever after
  • Alistair said:

    I don't want to shock anyone here but perusing the NC early voting data I see that no less than Four Hundred and Twelve people of the age 120 years old have cast their early vote.

    What do you mean? There are 412 people who are 120 years old that have voted?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080


    Russell George, the Tory AM who helpfully suggested to Mark Drakeford his hugely unpopular supermarket policy, now denies it was anything to do with him.

    "I don't support the Welsh Government's approach to banning non-essential sales in Welsh shops, I’m the one that got the FM to admit his plans! Retail should be open, the National lockdown is wrong approach "

    I love the way Russell describes Drakeford implementing Russell's bad idea as getting "the FM to admit his plans! " Genius.

    Did he just raise the problem (of unhappy shopkeepers) or did he first float the implemented solution?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    I don't want to shock anyone here but perusing the NC early voting data I see that no less than Four Hundred and Twelve people of the age 120 years old have cast their early vote.

    What do you mean? There are 412 people who are 120 years old that have voted?
    Yes. And one person who is 257 years old.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729

    Mr. Doethur, seems to be ok, touch wood, for me.

    Thanks. It's worked after a reboot, so it might just have been a bad RAM code.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Global infections still increasing will hit 500k/day shortly, the National focus on minutiae is laughable when looked at in the larger picture, socks in Wales for f**** sake. Even if controlled in the UK it will be back six weeks latter, let’s get all focus on effective treatment prior to icu admission, the vaccine and providing an environment for those who wish to shelter that is tolerable. Limiting family gatherings is cruel, Christmas is going to be a mental health disaster if things don’t change. But we worry about socks!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    edited October 2020

    On a topic to what's happening in the biggest betting event over the next 3 or 4 years, the Observer is carrying an interesting report that Johnson is awaiting the US result to determine whether he goes for a No Deal Brexit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/24/johnson-will-wait-for-us-election-result-before-no-deal-brexit-decision

    If Biden wins (he will) it leaves Johnson, and England, weaker and more isolated than ever.

    Neither Trump nor Biden give a fuck about a UK/USA trade deal. Trump might cheer on NDB as it's the sort of lunacy he likes but wouldn't actually do himself but he certainly wouldn't do anything to help out the UK as the Farage Garage fills up and we're reduced to burning copies of 𝑻𝑯𝑬 𝑰𝑪𝑬 𝑻𝑾𝑰𝑵𝑺 for fuel.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    edited October 2020
    FPT:

    welshowl said:

    We have tended to mirror France, with a lag. The Government needs to get a grip on this now - but I fear yet again they will do nothing and in three weeks we'll be in another hole.

    How’s old Drakeford going then? He has the power to be a shining example. If whatever you want.

    Reality - He’s done bugger all different for months till Friday when he had a total brain fart and is currently just about public enemy no 1 here.
    Drakeford has done something decisive, whether you agree with it or not the reality is that the only thing that got cases down in the UK was a full lockdown.

    BoJo is doing nothing - and cases are still going on. He needs to implement a lockdown to stop us turning into France.
    I assume you live in a tier 1 location? Otherwise I don’t understand how you think the government is doing nothing. You may think we need to do more. That’s your right, but to categorise the restrictions on a huge swath of England as doing nothing is just ridiculous. I was lucky enough to meet with 3 of my extended family today for a nice lunch at my parents house Many in England can’t do that.
    What CHB means when he says the Government is doing nothing is that they are not doing what he thinks they should.

    And what he means when he says Drakeford is decisive is that he has decided to do something that CHB approves of.

    Even if he wants to continue to frame the Government as doing nothing, then he can’t also say that is indecisive. It is clearly a decision to do nothing.

    In summary the Government has decisively decided on a three tier approach, which is both something and decisive.
    +1 to @Nemtynakht.

    This week the R number has started to move back down for the country as a whole, which was before any impact of Starmer's politicking, Burnham's self-promotion, or Drakeford's petty-authoritarian flappery.

    Can't comment on chippy Nicky - I've been ignoring her.

    16 October - 1.3-1.5 range.
    23 October - 1.2-1.4 range,

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54567867
    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk

    Which would seem to indicate that the existing - much maligned by those who gain by such maligning - measures are actually having an impact.

    Let's not mistake politics for something that is actually needed.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,456
    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting that the Sunday Times claims that Bozo is going to wait and let US voters decide our Brexit fate; Trump re-election means no deal, Biden means compromise deal.

    Much as Trump digging his heels in and setting legal and militia dogs on the system to stay in power would be horrific, watching BJ in a quandary about how to play it would be small silver lining.
    9 weeks to go and no one knows what paperwork needs to be sent with exports (or imports) on Jan 1st.

    And HMRC'S new export system's aren't even scheduled to enter testing until 1st July next year.
    Currently NI still has 2 conflicting sets of drug regulations come 1/1/21 and 2 different authorities to enforce them.
  • Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting that the Sunday Times claims that Bozo is going to wait and let US voters decide our Brexit fate; Trump re-election means no deal, Biden means compromise deal.

    With Congress controlled by the Dems, that seems rather foolhardy. BoZo is a fool though not a particularly hardy one.
    Sounds more like procrastination.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    MattW said:

    FPT:

    welshowl said:

    We have tended to mirror France, with a lag. The Government needs to get a grip on this now - but I fear yet again they will do nothing and in three weeks we'll be in another hole.

    How’s old Drakeford going then? He has the power to be a shining example. If whatever you want.

    Reality - He’s done bugger all different for months till Friday when he had a total brain fart and is currently just about public enemy no 1 here.
    Drakeford has done something decisive, whether you agree with it or not the reality is that the only thing that got cases down in the UK was a full lockdown.

    BoJo is doing nothing - and cases are still going on. He needs to implement a lockdown to stop us turning into France.
    I assume you live in a tier 1 location? Otherwise I don’t understand how you think the government is doing nothing. You may think we need to do more. That’s your right, but to categorise the restrictions on a huge swath of England as doing nothing is just ridiculous. I was lucky enough to meet with 3 of my extended family today for a nice lunch at my parents house Many in England can’t do that.
    What CHB means when he says the Government is doing nothing is that they are not doing what he thinks they should.

    And what he means when he says Drakeford is decisive is that he has decided to do something that CHB approves of.

    Even if he wants to continue to frame the Government as doing nothing, then he can’t also say that is indecisive. It is clearly a decision to do nothing.

    In summary the Government has decisively decided on a three tier approach, which is both something and decisive.
    +1 to @Nemtynakht.

    This week the R number has started to move back down for the country as a whole, which was before any impact of Starmer's politicking, Burnham's self-promotion, or Drakeford's petty-authoritarian flappery.

    Can't comment on chippy Nicky - I've been ignoring her.

    16 October - 1.3-1.5 range.
    23 October - 1.2-1.4 range,

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54567867
    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk

    Which would seem to indicate that the existing - much maligned by those who gain by such maligning - measures are actually having an impact.

    Let's not mistake politics for something that is actually needed.
    These figures must be within some sort of margin of error
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    Also WRTPT, the Zoom party is a superb idea. Thank-you.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Isn’t the argument, not that Johnson thinks that he will get a trade deal if Trump wins, but just that it will show that the “Trumplike” approach to politics/Govt (which is the nodeal option) will continue to be electorally successful?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,530
    Even though many GOP will vote on Election Day the Dems have a huge advantage as their turn out operation on the day doesn’t need to be contacting as many people . They can direct their resources more effectively .
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    MattW said:

    FPT:

    welshowl said:

    We have tended to mirror France, with a lag. The Government needs to get a grip on this now - but I fear yet again they will do nothing and in three weeks we'll be in another hole.

    How’s old Drakeford going then? He has the power to be a shining example. If whatever you want.

    Reality - He’s done bugger all different for months till Friday when he had a total brain fart and is currently just about public enemy no 1 here.
    Drakeford has done something decisive, whether you agree with it or not the reality is that the only thing that got cases down in the UK was a full lockdown.

    BoJo is doing nothing - and cases are still going on. He needs to implement a lockdown to stop us turning into France.
    I assume you live in a tier 1 location? Otherwise I don’t understand how you think the government is doing nothing. You may think we need to do more. That’s your right, but to categorise the restrictions on a huge swath of England as doing nothing is just ridiculous. I was lucky enough to meet with 3 of my extended family today for a nice lunch at my parents house Many in England can’t do that.
    What CHB means when he says the Government is doing nothing is that they are not doing what he thinks they should.

    And what he means when he says Drakeford is decisive is that he has decided to do something that CHB approves of.

    Even if he wants to continue to frame the Government as doing nothing, then he can’t also say that is indecisive. It is clearly a decision to do nothing.

    In summary the Government has decisively decided on a three tier approach, which is both something and decisive.
    +1 to @Nemtynakht.

    This week the R number has started to move back down for the country as a whole, which was before any impact of Starmer's politicking, Burnham's self-promotion, or Drakeford's petty-authoritarian flappery.

    Can't comment on chippy Nicky - I've been ignoring her.

    16 October - 1.3-1.5 range.
    23 October - 1.2-1.4 range,

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54567867
    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk

    Which would seem to indicate that the existing - much maligned by those who gain by such maligning - measures are actually having an impact.

    Let's not mistake politics for something that is actually needed.
    Isn't there a two week lag? Did the government do anything two weeks ago? Wasn't that eat out to stay stout...which measures have brought the R numbers down?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Always about money with this guy. Overcounting happens, it happened here, but even if it did I doubt that'd be the reason.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    IanB2 said:


    Russell George, the Tory AM who helpfully suggested to Mark Drakeford his hugely unpopular supermarket policy, now denies it was anything to do with him.

    "I don't support the Welsh Government's approach to banning non-essential sales in Welsh shops, I’m the one that got the FM to admit his plans! Retail should be open, the National lockdown is wrong approach "

    I love the way Russell describes Drakeford implementing Russell's bad idea as getting "the FM to admit his plans! " Genius.

    Did he just raise the problem (of unhappy shopkeepers) or did he first float the implemented solution?
    Fair point, there is some wiggle room for Russell George AM.

    He raised the point that it was "unfair" on small shops that supermarkets were open and could sell items while independent clothing and hardware retailers were shut.

    Drakeford then said, in response to his question,

    "In the first set of restrictions people were reasonably understanding of the fact that supermarkets didn’t close all the things that they may have needed to. I don’t think that people will be as understanding this time and we will be making it clear to supermarkets that they are only able to open those parts of their business that provide essential goods to people and that will not include some of the things that Russell George mentioned which other people are prevented from selling."

    So, I think you are right.

    Russell George raised the problem, but the solution & its implementation is due to Drakeford.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Scott_xP said:
    I'm surprised there hasn't been one already. Quite often pressure to u turn builds so quickly it happens in a couple of days, but this story has been rumbling for a week at least.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    SandraMc said:

    I am enjoying the "Mail on Sunday's" hatchet job on Mark Drakeford. Not only is he a close friend of Corbyn, a Republican and an Atheist but he is a keen player of the ukulele. (And I bet he eats pizza with pineapple as well).

    He'll be tossed in the Severn by Monday then, the dastard.
  • alex_ said:

    Isn’t the argument, not that Johnson thinks that he will get a trade deal if Trump wins, but just that it will show that the “Trumplike” approach to politics/Govt (which is the nodeal option) will continue to be electorally successful?

    Trying to draw that analogy between UK and USA would be insane, surely? So that might be the answer.

    More likely, Johnson has finally realised that his choice is No Deal or basically the deal the EU had in mind all along, neither of which is pleasant to him. No Deal will be chaos, and the Deal is a pig, with a voucher to buy lipstick in a Welsh supermarket.

    Johnson is hopeless in "least bad option" decisions, presumably because he has ducked them all his life. Hence his rubbish response to the virus.

    Letting the US electorate take control of Brexit is totally in character for the PM.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited October 2020
    nichomar said:

    Global infections still increasing will hit 500k/day shortly, the National focus on minutiae is laughable when looked at in the larger picture, socks in Wales for f**** sake. Even if controlled in the UK it will be back six weeks latter, let’s get all focus on effective treatment prior to icu admission, the vaccine and providing an environment for those who wish to shelter that is tolerable. Limiting family gatherings is cruel, Christmas is going to be a mental health disaster if things don’t change. But we worry about socks!

    Actually, there are many people in Wales who don't have much money, who live pay-check to pay-check & who don't have spare coats/clothes for their children in the case of an emergency.

    The media have found plenty of examples.

    It is easy to bear the privations of others, especially if you have wandered out of the moneyed affluence of a PG Wodehouse novel -- like a large fraction of the commentators on pb.com.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting that the Sunday Times claims that Bozo is going to wait and let US voters decide our Brexit fate; Trump re-election means no deal, Biden means compromise deal.

    Johnson trusts Trump? I knew he was bonkers, but .......
    The claims actually were beliefs in foreign EU capitals amongst diplomats and so on that this was why Johnson was hanging around over the No Deal/Deal. Not quite the same as an actual fact.

    Fits what we know of the man though.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    IanB2 said:


    Russell George, the Tory AM who helpfully suggested to Mark Drakeford his hugely unpopular supermarket policy, now denies it was anything to do with him.

    "I don't support the Welsh Government's approach to banning non-essential sales in Welsh shops, I’m the one that got the FM to admit his plans! Retail should be open, the National lockdown is wrong approach "

    I love the way Russell describes Drakeford implementing Russell's bad idea as getting "the FM to admit his plans! " Genius.

    Did he just raise the problem (of unhappy shopkeepers) or did he first float the implemented solution?
    Fair point, there is some wiggle room for Russell George AM.

    He raised the point that it was "unfair" on small shops that supermarkets were open and could sell items while independent clothing and hardware retailers were shut.

    Drakeford then said, in response to his question,

    "In the first set of restrictions people were reasonably understanding of the fact that supermarkets didn’t close all the things that they may have needed to. I don’t think that people will be as understanding this time and we will be making it clear to supermarkets that they are only able to open those parts of their business that provide essential goods to people and that will not include some of the things that Russell George mentioned which other people are prevented from selling."

    So, I think you are right.

    Russell George raised the problem, but the solution & its implementation is due to Drakeford.
    Russell George was trying to support local shopkeepers who didn't want to be ordered to close.

    I'm not sure he expected Drakeford's 'solution' to be keeping the small shops closed, sealing off half the supermarket shelves and sending everyone to Amazon.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    edited October 2020
    Bernard Jenkins on Sophy Ridge talking sound sense wanting Dido Harding to stand down and saying HMG have misjudged the mood of the country on Marcus Rashford's campaign and he will wait to see if HMG changes it's mind

    I understand Labour are to arrange a second vote on free school meals after the recess and it is inconceivable to me that conservative mps will not back the amendment, especially as it will be framed that it is over the Christmas holidays.

    I really hope HMG do another u turn but I would say this last week with the interventions of Andy Burnham and Marcus Rashford who have dialled into the public mood must have seen conservative mps, especially in the red wall seats, start to rebel against the leadership

    And in Wales the supermarket non essential sales ban petition has now reached 47,007 by some margin the highest vote ever recorded by a Senedd petition
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Roger said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting that the Sunday Times claims that Bozo is going to wait and let US voters decide our Brexit fate; Trump re-election means no deal, Biden means compromise deal.

    Ideal scenario ..... Biden wins tells UK to go to hell in a handcart.... the economy nosedives... Johnson deposed.... general election ...PM Starmer promises another Referendum..... re-enter wins..... EU agrees subject to joining Schengen and the euro....


    and we all live happily ever after
    Even in an idealised scenario you cannot imagine everyone would happily or even sullenly live with that. Brexit didn't get to be such a huge deal because no one cares much about it except on one side.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited October 2020



    If Biden wins (he will) it leaves Johnson, and England, weaker and more isolated than ever.

    On the plus side there will be a functioning WTO...
    Really? The USA hasnt followed the 2003 ruling that they owe Antigua $21m per year, over $300m by now under any of their presidencies. If the big powers simply ignore rulings against them the court is pretty much worthless. Not sure why you think Biden will change that?
    Before Trump it at least had a functioning arbitration court even if it couldn't make big countries enforce its rulings, it no longer has that because Trump denied it a quorum.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    Global infections still increasing will hit 500k/day shortly, the National focus on minutiae is laughable when looked at in the larger picture, socks in Wales for f**** sake. Even if controlled in the UK it will be back six weeks latter, let’s get all focus on effective treatment prior to icu admission, the vaccine and providing an environment for those who wish to shelter that is tolerable. Limiting family gatherings is cruel, Christmas is going to be a mental health disaster if things don’t change. But we worry about socks!

    Actually, there are many people in Wales who don't have much money, who live pay-check to pay-check & who don't have spare coats/clothes for their children in the case of an emergency.

    The media have found plenty of examples.

    It is easy to bear the privations of others, especially if you have wandered out of the moneyed affluence of a PG Wodehouse novel -- like a large fraction of the commentators on pb.com.
    Maybe a poor example, I wasn’t belittling the need for some items just the whole approach to introducing rules that will solve nothing, there is as yet no solution on a national scale except treatment, vaccines and shielding of those who choose to shield, the rest is becoming obvious bollocks you can’t turn a world tide back by closing pubs etc
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Army to "help out" in Tier 3 zones, including "enforcement"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/24/army-drafted-help-covid-response-tier-3-areas-combat-second/

    Coming to a locality near you soon folks.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,583

    IanB2 said:


    Russell George, the Tory AM who helpfully suggested to Mark Drakeford his hugely unpopular supermarket policy, now denies it was anything to do with him.

    "I don't support the Welsh Government's approach to banning non-essential sales in Welsh shops, I’m the one that got the FM to admit his plans! Retail should be open, the National lockdown is wrong approach "

    I love the way Russell describes Drakeford implementing Russell's bad idea as getting "the FM to admit his plans! " Genius.

    Did he just raise the problem (of unhappy shopkeepers) or did he first float the implemented solution?
    Fair point, there is some wiggle room for Russell George AM.

    He raised the point that it was "unfair" on small shops that supermarkets were open and could sell items while independent clothing and hardware retailers were shut.

    Drakeford then said, in response to his question,

    "In the first set of restrictions people were reasonably understanding of the fact that supermarkets didn’t close all the things that they may have needed to. I don’t think that people will be as understanding this time and we will be making it clear to supermarkets that they are only able to open those parts of their business that provide essential goods to people and that will not include some of the things that Russell George mentioned which other people are prevented from selling."

    So, I think you are right.

    Russell George raised the problem, but the solution & its implementation is due to Drakeford.
    I don't think Russell George is smart enough to have realised the magnificence of the stunt he pulled off.

    Furious backpedaling on Monday from Drakeford no doubt. My take is George's point is fundamentally correct, but by over reacting the WG have brought the whole fire break idea crashing down around them, which is a shame. When Drakeford does U turn, every man and his dog will be queuing to browse for tat at Tesco.

    It is a big win for Russell George, the Welsh Tories, Boris and the English based media.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    IanB2 said:


    Russell George, the Tory AM who helpfully suggested to Mark Drakeford his hugely unpopular supermarket policy, now denies it was anything to do with him.

    "I don't support the Welsh Government's approach to banning non-essential sales in Welsh shops, I’m the one that got the FM to admit his plans! Retail should be open, the National lockdown is wrong approach "

    I love the way Russell describes Drakeford implementing Russell's bad idea as getting "the FM to admit his plans! " Genius.

    Did he just raise the problem (of unhappy shopkeepers) or did he first float the implemented solution?
    Fair point, there is some wiggle room for Russell George AM.

    He raised the point that it was "unfair" on small shops that supermarkets were open and could sell items while independent clothing and hardware retailers were shut.

    Drakeford then said, in response to his question,

    "In the first set of restrictions people were reasonably understanding of the fact that supermarkets didn’t close all the things that they may have needed to. I don’t think that people will be as understanding this time and we will be making it clear to supermarkets that they are only able to open those parts of their business that provide essential goods to people and that will not include some of the things that Russell George mentioned which other people are prevented from selling."

    So, I think you are right.

    Russell George raised the problem, but the solution & its implementation is due to Drakeford.
    Yes, a fair summary. Other "solutions" would have been changing the decision regarding closing some or all of the smaller shops, or defending the then status quo by pointing out that people would otherwise just buy online and the object is to reduce the number of locations visited.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,670

    The patron saint of hilarious right wing comedy a mask freedom fighter? Who could have predicted...

    https://twitter.com/LeeHurstComic/status/1319901736195293185?s=20

    what an absolute bellend
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    edited October 2020
    "Dan Jarvis, the mayor of Sheffield City, said the Government must "define precisely what the exit criteria is" from Tier 3."

    (Telegraph)

    No local leaders should accept going into Tier 3 until Johnson spells this out. It looks to me like once an area is in, it will not come out again until a vaccine. That could be late spring.

    We should be told.
  • I love the "Shagger waiting to see who wins the election" story. In other words his entire future plan post Brexit is to shackle ourselves to the US. Except that the US don't want to play. "Cripes!" says Shagger, "best to wait and see".

    Don't worry, industry would be in a horrendous mess by now with nothing decided and just weeks to go. Would be had industry not already concluded that we will remain on the same terms as we have now as capitulation is the only way forward.

    As my new Romanian overlords put it when I suggested allowing for Brexit contingencies, even if we wanted to no deal we can't impose checks & tariffs as we don't have the people, systems and infrastructure to do so. Which means our "no deal" threat is no threat at all.

    "Isn't the PM wearing marvellous new Brexit clothes!" say the handful of remaining Brexit cheerleaders. "What clothes? We can see his cock" says Barnier...
  • IanB2 said:


    Russell George, the Tory AM who helpfully suggested to Mark Drakeford his hugely unpopular supermarket policy, now denies it was anything to do with him.

    "I don't support the Welsh Government's approach to banning non-essential sales in Welsh shops, I’m the one that got the FM to admit his plans! Retail should be open, the National lockdown is wrong approach "

    I love the way Russell describes Drakeford implementing Russell's bad idea as getting "the FM to admit his plans! " Genius.

    Did he just raise the problem (of unhappy shopkeepers) or did he first float the implemented solution?
    Fair point, there is some wiggle room for Russell George AM.

    He raised the point that it was "unfair" on small shops that supermarkets were open and could sell items while independent clothing and hardware retailers were shut.

    Drakeford then said, in response to his question,

    "In the first set of restrictions people were reasonably understanding of the fact that supermarkets didn’t close all the things that they may have needed to. I don’t think that people will be as understanding this time and we will be making it clear to supermarkets that they are only able to open those parts of their business that provide essential goods to people and that will not include some of the things that Russell George mentioned which other people are prevented from selling."

    So, I think you are right.

    Russell George raised the problem, but the solution & its implementation is due to Drakeford.
    I don't think Russell George is smart enough to have realised the magnificence of the stunt he pulled off.

    Furious backpedaling on Monday from Drakeford no doubt. My take is George's point is fundamentally correct, but by over reacting the WG have brought the whole fire break idea crashing down around them, which is a shame. When Drakeford does U turn, every man and his dog will be queuing to browse for tat at Tesco.

    It is a big win for Russell George, the Welsh Tories, Boris and the English based media.
    And more than that, plain common sense
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,670
    MattW said:

    FPT:

    welshowl said:

    We have tended to mirror France, with a lag. The Government needs to get a grip on this now - but I fear yet again they will do nothing and in three weeks we'll be in another hole.

    How’s old Drakeford going then? He has the power to be a shining example. If whatever you want.

    Reality - He’s done bugger all different for months till Friday when he had a total brain fart and is currently just about public enemy no 1 here.
    Drakeford has done something decisive, whether you agree with it or not the reality is that the only thing that got cases down in the UK was a full lockdown.

    BoJo is doing nothing - and cases are still going on. He needs to implement a lockdown to stop us turning into France.
    I assume you live in a tier 1 location? Otherwise I don’t understand how you think the government is doing nothing. You may think we need to do more. That’s your right, but to categorise the restrictions on a huge swath of England as doing nothing is just ridiculous. I was lucky enough to meet with 3 of my extended family today for a nice lunch at my parents house Many in England can’t do that.
    What CHB means when he says the Government is doing nothing is that they are not doing what he thinks they should.

    And what he means when he says Drakeford is decisive is that he has decided to do something that CHB approves of.

    Even if he wants to continue to frame the Government as doing nothing, then he can’t also say that is indecisive. It is clearly a decision to do nothing.

    In summary the Government has decisively decided on a three tier approach, which is both something and decisive.
    +1 to @Nemtynakht.

    This week the R number has started to move back down for the country as a whole, which was before any impact of Starmer's politicking, Burnham's self-promotion, or Drakeford's petty-authoritarian flappery.

    Can't comment on chippy Nicky - I've been ignoring her.

    16 October - 1.3-1.5 range.
    23 October - 1.2-1.4 range,

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54567867
    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk

    Which would seem to indicate that the existing - much maligned by those who gain by such maligning - measures are actually having an impact.

    Let's not mistake politics for something that is actually needed.
    Little Englander posts crap, yawn. I am sure Scottish FM is really concerned that a bellend like you is ignoring her.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    alex_ said:

    Isn’t the argument, not that Johnson thinks that he will get a trade deal if Trump wins, but just that it will show that the “Trumplike” approach to politics/Govt (which is the nodeal option) will continue to be electorally successful?

    Trying to draw that analogy between UK and USA would be insane, surely? So that might be the answer.

    More likely, Johnson has finally realised that his choice is No Deal or basically the deal the EU had in mind all along, neither of which is pleasant to him. No Deal will be chaos, and the Deal is a pig, with a voucher to buy lipstick in a Welsh supermarket.

    Johnson is hopeless in "least bad option" decisions, presumably because he has ducked them all his life. Hence his rubbish response to the virus.

    Letting the US electorate take control of Brexit is totally in character for the PM.
    Very perceptive. Boris has escaped many a tight spot by simply imagining a good outcome and proceeding regardless. Hence the "fantastic deal" that turned out to be crap and the "oven ready deal" that wasn't.

    Eventually, denial has to run out of road.
  • Just been denied by Brandon Lewis on Sophy Ridge
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    IanB2 said:


    Russell George, the Tory AM who helpfully suggested to Mark Drakeford his hugely unpopular supermarket policy, now denies it was anything to do with him.

    "I don't support the Welsh Government's approach to banning non-essential sales in Welsh shops, I’m the one that got the FM to admit his plans! Retail should be open, the National lockdown is wrong approach "

    I love the way Russell describes Drakeford implementing Russell's bad idea as getting "the FM to admit his plans! " Genius.

    Did he just raise the problem (of unhappy shopkeepers) or did he first float the implemented solution?
    Fair point, there is some wiggle room for Russell George AM.

    He raised the point that it was "unfair" on small shops that supermarkets were open and could sell items while independent clothing and hardware retailers were shut.

    Drakeford then said, in response to his question,

    "In the first set of restrictions people were reasonably understanding of the fact that supermarkets didn’t close all the things that they may have needed to. I don’t think that people will be as understanding this time and we will be making it clear to supermarkets that they are only able to open those parts of their business that provide essential goods to people and that will not include some of the things that Russell George mentioned which other people are prevented from selling."

    So, I think you are right.

    Russell George raised the problem, but the solution & its implementation is due to Drakeford.
    I don't think Russell George is smart enough to have realised the magnificence of the stunt he pulled off.

    Furious backpedaling on Monday from Drakeford no doubt. My take is George's point is fundamentally correct, but by over reacting the WG have brought the whole fire break idea crashing down around them, which is a shame. When Drakeford does U turn, every man and his dog will be queuing to browse for tat at Tesco.

    It is a big win for Russell George, the Welsh Tories, Boris and the English based media.
    Well I told the cat her cat litter was not essential this morning and asked her to hold on for another 16 days.

    The reply I got was wholly more sensible than anything the Welsh Govt is capable of.
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