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My logic for bailing out of the spread betting markets on this year’s White House Race – politicalbe

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  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Cyclefree said:


    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Bernard Jenkin said she needs a holiday. No shortage of suggestions so far
    I’d be very tempted were I Labour to make it clear to her that when they get into government she will be sacked from any public role and will be spending a lot of time answering questions in the inquiry into the running of PHE, Test’n’Trace and all the contracts awarded during her time in charge.
    I see all those supposed qualms about governments behaving vindictively have evaporated then...
    An employer has a right to sack staff subject to the laws that apply. A government has the right - and in this case the duty - to carry out a public inquiry into one of the biggest disasters this country has faced. The circumstances of her appointment are far from transparent as are the contracts that have been awarded. A proper inquiry into all these matters is entirely justified to ensure that any monies spent improperly are recovered for the taxpayer, any other improper behaviour is properly punished and lessons are learnt.

    None of this is vindictive. Nor is it incompatible with the rule of law.

    What is unacceptable is government appointing cronies without any sort of proper process and trying to make it difficult for them to be made properly accountable to taxpayers.
    You want her threatened with the sack in advance of the evidence, then sacked, then the evidence to be inquired into anyway not in the interests of the attainment of justice, but in terrorem and as an additional punishment. I am genuinely surprised that a member of the English Bar, as I believe you are, should have posted that.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,805

    kjh said:


    You really really don't understand this tax business do you, even though I have explained it several times. You don't get to just pay just Corporation Tax if you set up a company. You also pay Income Tax when you pay the money from the company to yourself

    You pay 19% Corporation Tax THEN when you pay it from your company to yourself you pay Income Tax on it.

    So you pay 19% AND 45%.

    OK it isn't quite as simple as that because you make savings on NI, Dividend band of £2000 and more generous allowable expenses and flexibility on when you pay yourself and therefore on when you pay tax BUT it isn't

    19% or 45%. It really isn't.

    I don't know why you think this?

    You pay both unless you leave the money in the company forever!>

    I now know why you believe it. You have read an ITV article that is bollocks. How about checking out the tax rules or listening to someone who have run a limited company for 30 years and paid both Corporation Tax and Income Tax. Yes I paid both on the same income (albeit I made savings elsewhere which more or less cancelled out the extra tax and I had much more flexibility in running my business rather than being a sole trader.)

    Well fair enough I can believe the ITV article to be bollocks. But I'm pretty sure the rates are different to pay if you take a dividend rather than 45% PAYE rate, so I'm not sure of your figures either.

    It does say HMRC are investigating though, so presumably they think there is something in it too, probably some loophole you've not thought of.

    If the dividend rate + savings on NI are less than 45% then that could save tax.

    I'm sure there's some more outrageous loopholes, maybe something like a footballer could keep the money in their company until they retire and spend 6 months in a tax haven and pay themselves tax free.

    Or the company never makes a profit and pays less corporation tax (I assume that is how Amazon avoid paying anything here).
    Corporation Tax 19%

    Top income tax rate 45%

    Top dividend tax rate 38.1% and dividends are not deductible for Corporation Tax unlike a salary.

    So by going thru a company you pay 19% on your profits and then 45% or 38.1% on the top band of what you receive (less on the lower bands obviously), but no NI by either the company nor the individual if no salary paid.

    If paid as salary by the club it would be top rate of 45% on most of the salary (assuming whopping salary) plus after the initial NI most of the NI paid on the higher earnings would be at 2%

    There is so much I could write. I am trying to keep it simple. eek is doing a far better job than me.

    As eek mentioned the employer NI is another consideration to take into account.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.

    The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8876225/First-Minister-Mark-Drakeford-backs-radical-socialist-traditions.html

    Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
    It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.

    Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).

    Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
    Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
    Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables

    UK Labour 40% Tories 38% LDs 6%

    England Labour 44% Tories 39% LDs 6%

    Scotland SNP 48% Tories 27% Labour 20% LDs 1%

    Wales Tories 40% Labour 29% Plaid 19% LDs 7%

    I rest my case

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-22nd-october-2020/
    Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
    All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1248223276427628546?s=20
    https://twitter.com/DerynConsulting/status/1248217542109335554?s=20
    The Tories are in real contention to be the largest party in the Assembly in Wales next year for the first time since it was created in 1999
    Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
    Paging HYUFD.

    Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
  • Some polling out for the US today.
    USC has Biden on +10, +12, +10.

    Trafalgar has 3 new polls out, which I suspect will be discussed here, show:
    FL Trump +2
    AZ Trump +3
    MI Trump +2
    So I suspect not a surprise to anyone.

    A single poll for SD Trump +11

    Oh and since I posted some high Texas polling for Biden.
    University of Texas at Tyler.
    Biden +3

    I personally am putting that one in with Trafalgar as outlier.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
  • DAlexanderDAlexander Posts: 815
    edited October 2020
    eek said:

    kjh said:


    You really really don't understand this tax business do you, even though I have explained it several times. You don't get to just pay just Corporation Tax if you set up a company. You also pay Income Tax when you pay the money from the company to yourself

    You pay 19% Corporation Tax THEN when you pay it from your company to yourself you pay Income Tax on it.

    So you pay 19% AND 45%.

    OK it isn't quite as simple as that because you make savings on NI, Dividend band of £2000 and more generous allowable expenses and flexibility on when you pay yourself and therefore on when you pay tax BUT it isn't

    19% or 45%. It really isn't.

    I don't know why you think this?

    You pay both unless you leave the money in the company forever!>

    I now know why you believe it. You have read an ITV article that is bollocks. How about checking out the tax rules or listening to someone who have run a limited company for 30 years and paid both Corporation Tax and Income Tax. Yes I paid both on the same income (albeit I made savings elsewhere which more or less cancelled out the extra tax and I had much more flexibility in running my business rather than being a sole trader.)

    Well fair enough I can believe the ITV article to be bollocks. But I'm pretty sure the rates are different to pay if you take a dividend rather than 45% PAYE rate, so I'm not sure of your figures either.

    It does say HMRC are investigating though, so presumably they think there is something in it too, probably some loophole you've not thought of.

    If the dividend rate + savings on NI are less than 45% then that could save tax.

    I'm sure there's some more outrageous loopholes, maybe something like a footballer could keep the money in their company until they retire and spend 6 months in a tax haven and pay themselves tax free.
    .
    I showed the rates earlier (income tax and dividend tax work out as roughly the same, the employer does save employer NI on dividend payments though).

    And you might be able to remove money from the company on a tax free basis but there are now 5 year rules allowing clawback and Corporation tax (at 19%) would have been paid when the company original received the money so it's nowhere near tax free.

    Sadly you are hitting an area I know an awful lot about and while it's fun watching people dig holes with their lack of knowledge it's also pretty pointless.

    Basically footballers will be paying tax on their income - the real issue ends up being Employer NI which is currently the bane of the entire industry (it's £70bn a year the Government doesn't want disappearing).
    Actually I didn't say it was tax free, I said they use the companies to pay less tax, which you seem to be saying is possible now.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,463
    dixiedean said:

    Quiz question from the Rail Forum:

    Who was the last Prime Minister of Great Britain and the UK who was neither Conservative, Labour, nor Liberal?

    Bonus point for the year(s) when this person was in power.

    No cheating!

    Boris Johnson seems to be none of the three.
    Well, I admit I've cheated, but wasn't Douglas-Home elected as a Scottish Unionist?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.

    The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8876225/First-Minister-Mark-Drakeford-backs-radical-socialist-traditions.html

    Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
    It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.

    Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).

    Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
    Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
    Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables

    UK Labour 40% Tories 38% LDs 6%

    England Labour 44% Tories 39% LDs 6%

    Scotland SNP 48% Tories 27% Labour 20% LDs 1%

    Wales Tories 40% Labour 29% Plaid 19% LDs 7%

    I rest my case

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-22nd-october-2020/
    Not a very good case, young HY. Politics as we know it has shut down since the general election. It ought to have started up again in the spring, with the local elections, but Covid put a stop to that. From what I hear, the Lib Dems are just starting to get going again, though not necessarily everywhere. Meanwhile, take whatever comfort you can from the opinion polls you quote. Those figures will not last.
    Opposition in Wales is split between Plaid and the Conservatives.

    For as long as that continues, the Welsh First Minister will continue to be Labour.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366

    Cyclefree said:


    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Bernard Jenkin said she needs a holiday. No shortage of suggestions so far
    I’d be very tempted were I Labour to make it clear to her that when they get into government she will be sacked from any public role and will be spending a lot of time answering questions in the inquiry into the running of PHE, Test’n’Trace and all the contracts awarded during her time in charge.
    I see all those supposed qualms about governments behaving vindictively have evaporated then...
    An employer has a right to sack staff subject to the laws that apply. A government has the right - and in this case the duty - to carry out a public inquiry into one of the biggest disasters this country has faced. The circumstances of her appointment are far from transparent as are the contracts that have been awarded. A proper inquiry into all these matters is entirely justified to ensure that any monies spent improperly are recovered for the taxpayer, any other improper behaviour is properly punished and lessons are learnt.

    None of this is vindictive. Nor is it incompatible with the rule of law.

    What is unacceptable is government appointing cronies without any sort of proper process and trying to make it difficult for them to be made properly accountable to taxpayers.
    It is reasonable to have an inquiry but you seem to have predetermined the outcome of the inquiry before it has even happened. My experience of employment law is that sacking someone and then having an inquiry is putting the cart before the horse.

    You should surely have the inquiry and then subject to the inquiry hold any disciplinary action or dismissal not the other way around?
    I'm quite sure that using repeated enquiries as punishment is a good path to go down.

    Unless we want to end up like the US - where *asking a question* that embarrasses a politician on camera often leads to an IRS audit and/or every over vaguely applicable agency coming after you.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited October 2020
    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Bernard Jenkin said she needs a holiday. No shortage of suggestions so far
    I’d be very tempted were I Labour to make it clear to her that when they get into government she will be sacked from any public role and will be spending a lot of time answering questions in the inquiry into the running of PHE, Test’n’Trace and all the contracts awarded during her time in charge.
    Good to see a lawyer applying the rule of law in a measured fashion ...

    ".... were I Labour" [I would] "make it clear to her that when they get into government she will be sacked from any public role ..."

    Out of interest, can you really do that? Just sack someone without any due process.

    I think Ed Balls tried it in the House of Commons ... didn't we all end up paying damages?

    (I'd be surprised if Dido is openly corrupt, as opposed to grossly incompetent. But the latter is not a hindrance to public office.)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,717
    alex_ said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Might as well add in a Tier 0 for good measure. Bring in some consistency across the UK...

    Now if there's a smile on my face
    It's only there trying to fool the public
    But when it comes down to fooling you
    Now, honey, that's quite a different subject
    But don't let my glad expression
    Give you the wrong impression
    Really I'm sad, Oh I'm sadder than sad
    You're gone, and I'm hurtin' so bad
    Like a clown, I pretend to be glad

    Now there's some sad things known to man
    But ain't too much sadder than the Tiers of a clown, When there's no one around...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited October 2020

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.

    The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8876225/First-Minister-Mark-Drakeford-backs-radical-socialist-traditions.html

    Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
    It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.

    Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).

    Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
    Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
    Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables

    UK Labour 40% Tories 38% LDs 6%

    England Labour 44% Tories 39% LDs 6%

    Scotland SNP 48% Tories 27% Labour 20% LDs 1%

    Wales Tories 40% Labour 29% Plaid 19% LDs 7%

    I rest my case

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-22nd-october-2020/
    Not a very good case, young HY. Politics as we know it has shut down since the general election. It ought to have started up again in the spring, with the local elections, but Covid put a stop to that. From what I hear, the Lib Dems are just starting to get going again, though not necessarily everywhere. Meanwhile, take whatever comfort you can from the opinion polls you quote. Those figures will not last.
    Opposition in Wales is split between Plaid and the Conservatives.

    For as long as that continues, the Welsh First Minister will continue to be Labour.
    Except even if the Tories just keep the 36% they got at GE19 it only takes 5 to 10% to move from the 40% Labour got to move to Plaid and the Tories would be largest party even if no further movement from Labour to the Tories at all and Opinium suggests after Drakeford's disastrous announcements there has been movement from Welsh Labour to the Welsh Tories too.

    Now Drakeford might still be able to stay FM even if the Tories win most Assembly seats with Plaid and LD support but it would be a humiliation for Welsh Labour no doubt
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366

    IshmaelZ said:

    Worldometer deaths 925/1m, second only to Peru
    Do we know if Gupta has finally accepted that her claim that probably only 100/1m infected by covid die of it and certainly no more than 1000/1m is looking somewhere quite a long way past unlikely?

    And that just maybe her inability to get journals to publish that might have been down to a disagreement with her methodology rather than a dark international conspiracy.
    Surely the Belgian figures bear that out. 925 per million is at the upper end of the scale but cases were being significantly under-reported during the spring. So it looks like the IFR is indeed between 100 and 1000 per million. Or are you misremembering Gupta's figures?
    Are you assuming that 100% of Belgians have had covid to date?
    If any kind of herd immunity kicks in, it’d be at about 66%.
    So past 660 or so per 1m, you’d see cases fall away if there were zero restrictions.
    And, as of today, there would be zero cases, zero hospitalisations, and zero deaths, even if Belgium had zero restrictions.

    I wouldn’t agree that there is any plausible chance that even as many as 92.5% of Belgians have already had covid.

    Surely the example for herd immunity would be Manaus in Brazil - which reached 66% off the population having had COVID.

    2500 dead from less than 2 million.
  • kjh said:

    kjh said:


    You really really don't understand this tax business do you, even though I have explained it several times. You don't get to just pay just Corporation Tax if you set up a company. You also pay Income Tax when you pay the money from the company to yourself

    You pay 19% Corporation Tax THEN when you pay it from your company to yourself you pay Income Tax on it.

    So you pay 19% AND 45%.

    OK it isn't quite as simple as that because you make savings on NI, Dividend band of £2000 and more generous allowable expenses and flexibility on when you pay yourself and therefore on when you pay tax BUT it isn't

    19% or 45%. It really isn't.

    I don't know why you think this?

    You pay both unless you leave the money in the company forever!>

    I now know why you believe it. You have read an ITV article that is bollocks. How about checking out the tax rules or listening to someone who have run a limited company for 30 years and paid both Corporation Tax and Income Tax. Yes I paid both on the same income (albeit I made savings elsewhere which more or less cancelled out the extra tax and I had much more flexibility in running my business rather than being a sole trader.)

    Well fair enough I can believe the ITV article to be bollocks. But I'm pretty sure the rates are different to pay if you take a dividend rather than 45% PAYE rate, so I'm not sure of your figures either.

    It does say HMRC are investigating though, so presumably they think there is something in it too, probably some loophole you've not thought of.

    If the dividend rate + savings on NI are less than 45% then that could save tax.

    I'm sure there's some more outrageous loopholes, maybe something like a footballer could keep the money in their company until they retire and spend 6 months in a tax haven and pay themselves tax free.

    Or the company never makes a profit and pays less corporation tax (I assume that is how Amazon avoid paying anything here).
    Corporation Tax 19%

    Top income tax rate 45%

    Top dividend tax rate 38.1% and dividends are not deductible for Corporation Tax unlike a salary.

    So by going thru a company you pay 19% on your profits and then 45% or 38.1% on the top band of what you receive (less on the lower bands obviously), but no NI by either the company nor the individual if no salary paid.

    If paid as salary by the club it would be top rate of 45% on most of the salary (assuming whopping salary) plus after the initial NI most of the NI paid on the higher earnings would be at 2%

    There is so much I could write. I am trying to keep it simple. eek is doing a far better job than me.

    As eek mentioned the employer NI is another consideration to take into account.
    Fair enough, but I still don't understand why they bother creating these companies at all if they end up losing money on them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.

    The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8876225/First-Minister-Mark-Drakeford-backs-radical-socialist-traditions.html

    Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
    It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.

    Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).

    Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
    Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
    Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables

    UK Labour 40% Tories 38% LDs 6%

    England Labour 44% Tories 39% LDs 6%

    Scotland SNP 48% Tories 27% Labour 20% LDs 1%

    Wales Tories 40% Labour 29% Plaid 19% LDs 7%

    I rest my case

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-22nd-october-2020/
    Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
    All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1248223276427628546?s=20
    https://twitter.com/DerynConsulting/status/1248217542109335554?s=20
    The Tories are in real contention to be the largest party in the Assembly in Wales next year for the first time since it was created in 1999
    Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
    Paging HYUFD.

    Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
    Taken pre Drakeford destroying the Welsh economy and banning sale of non essential goods
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    RobD said:

    Quiz question from the Rail Forum:

    Who was the last Prime Minister of Great Britain and the UK who was neither Conservative, Labour, nor Liberal?

    Bonus point for the year(s) when this person was in power.

    No cheating!

    Well technically the right answer is Ramsay MacDonald between 1931 and 1935 when he lead National Labour.

    But I suppose the answer you're looking for is Viscount Palmerston in the 1850s, when he led the Whigs.
    Does Douglas-Home count as a Conservative, or was he technically a Scots Tory?
    I suppose that counts, or does it?
    Relying on Wiki, i assume the answer will be JRM. But in passing i noticed that Boris Johnson, in addition to being First Lord of the Treasury and Minister for the Civil Service, made himself "Minister for the Union". How's that going...?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398
    kjh said:

    kjh said:


    You really really don't understand this tax business do you, even though I have explained it several times. You don't get to just pay just Corporation Tax if you set up a company. You also pay Income Tax when you pay the money from the company to yourself

    You pay 19% Corporation Tax THEN when you pay it from your company to yourself you pay Income Tax on it.

    So you pay 19% AND 45%.

    OK it isn't quite as simple as that because you make savings on NI, Dividend band of £2000 and more generous allowable expenses and flexibility on when you pay yourself and therefore on when you pay tax BUT it isn't

    19% or 45%. It really isn't.

    I don't know why you think this?

    You pay both unless you leave the money in the company forever!>

    I now know why you believe it. You have read an ITV article that is bollocks. How about checking out the tax rules or listening to someone who have run a limited company for 30 years and paid both Corporation Tax and Income Tax. Yes I paid both on the same income (albeit I made savings elsewhere which more or less cancelled out the extra tax and I had much more flexibility in running my business rather than being a sole trader.)

    Well fair enough I can believe the ITV article to be bollocks. But I'm pretty sure the rates are different to pay if you take a dividend rather than 45% PAYE rate, so I'm not sure of your figures either.

    It does say HMRC are investigating though, so presumably they think there is something in it too, probably some loophole you've not thought of.

    If the dividend rate + savings on NI are less than 45% then that could save tax.

    I'm sure there's some more outrageous loopholes, maybe something like a footballer could keep the money in their company until they retire and spend 6 months in a tax haven and pay themselves tax free.

    Or the company never makes a profit and pays less corporation tax (I assume that is how Amazon avoid paying anything here).
    Corporation Tax 19%

    Top income tax rate 45%

    Top dividend tax rate 38.1% and dividends are not deductible for Corporation Tax unlike a salary.

    So by going thru a company you pay 19% on your profits and then 45% or 38.1% on the top band of what you receive (less on the lower bands obviously), but no NI by either the company nor the individual if no salary paid.

    If paid as salary by the club it would be top rate of 45% on most of the salary (assuming whopping salary) plus after the initial NI most of the NI paid on the higher earnings would be at 2%

    There is so much I could write. I am trying to keep it simple. eek is doing a far better job than me.

    As eek mentioned the employer NI is another consideration to take into account.
    When it comes to tax at the moment it's always about Employers NI.

    Heck I trademarked a phase this month that employment agencies can use when advertising rates so they can offer a clear explanation of where the money goes come April and the next set of IR35 changes arrive.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Well, not really "now".
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    isam said:

    When the government said we were only allowed x amount of people inside our homes, it struck me as a bit odd that the rule was the same no matter how big the home - Surely someone with a 5 bedroom house should be allowed more people round than someone in a bedsit?

    Did the govt make this so to prevent the criticism of there being one rule for them etc? Or am I misremembering the rules?

    Simplicity, probably.

    What all the various restrictions, around the world, share is this - they are attempts to reduce R. On *average*.

    So every single regulation, in every single country, has exceptions that make it seem stupid. But if enough people follow the rules/regulations, then *on average* the transmission goes down.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.

    The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8876225/First-Minister-Mark-Drakeford-backs-radical-socialist-traditions.html

    Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
    It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.

    Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).

    Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
    Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
    Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables

    UK Labour 40% Tories 38% LDs 6%

    England Labour 44% Tories 39% LDs 6%

    Scotland SNP 48% Tories 27% Labour 20% LDs 1%

    Wales Tories 40% Labour 29% Plaid 19% LDs 7%

    I rest my case

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-22nd-october-2020/
    Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
    All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1248223276427628546?s=20
    https://twitter.com/DerynConsulting/status/1248217542109335554?s=20
    The Tories are in real contention to be the largest party in the Assembly in Wales next year for the first time since it was created in 1999
    Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
    Paging HYUFD.

    Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
    Taken pre Drakeford destroying the Welsh economy and banning sale of non essential goods
    Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    edited October 2020

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.

    The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8876225/First-Minister-Mark-Drakeford-backs-radical-socialist-traditions.html

    Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
    It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.

    Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).

    Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
    Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
    Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables

    UK Labour 40% Tories 38% LDs 6%

    England Labour 44% Tories 39% LDs 6%

    Scotland SNP 48% Tories 27% Labour 20% LDs 1%

    Wales Tories 40% Labour 29% Plaid 19% LDs 7%

    I rest my case

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-22nd-october-2020/
    Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
    All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1248223276427628546?s=20
    https://twitter.com/DerynConsulting/status/1248217542109335554?s=20
    The Tories are in real contention to be the largest party in the Assembly in Wales next year for the first time since it was created in 1999
    Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
    Paging HYUFD.

    Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
    I thought that was the latest poll as well

    *No idea about HYUFD latest poll showing a large conservative lead

    *Just noticed the poll HYUFD quotes is from last April, he really does not do himself any favours
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398

    kjh said:

    kjh said:


    You really really don't understand this tax business do you, even though I have explained it several times. You don't get to just pay just Corporation Tax if you set up a company. You also pay Income Tax when you pay the money from the company to yourself

    You pay 19% Corporation Tax THEN when you pay it from your company to yourself you pay Income Tax on it.

    So you pay 19% AND 45%.

    OK it isn't quite as simple as that because you make savings on NI, Dividend band of £2000 and more generous allowable expenses and flexibility on when you pay yourself and therefore on when you pay tax BUT it isn't

    19% or 45%. It really isn't.

    I don't know why you think this?

    You pay both unless you leave the money in the company forever!>

    I now know why you believe it. You have read an ITV article that is bollocks. How about checking out the tax rules or listening to someone who have run a limited company for 30 years and paid both Corporation Tax and Income Tax. Yes I paid both on the same income (albeit I made savings elsewhere which more or less cancelled out the extra tax and I had much more flexibility in running my business rather than being a sole trader.)

    Well fair enough I can believe the ITV article to be bollocks. But I'm pretty sure the rates are different to pay if you take a dividend rather than 45% PAYE rate, so I'm not sure of your figures either.

    It does say HMRC are investigating though, so presumably they think there is something in it too, probably some loophole you've not thought of.

    If the dividend rate + savings on NI are less than 45% then that could save tax.

    I'm sure there's some more outrageous loopholes, maybe something like a footballer could keep the money in their company until they retire and spend 6 months in a tax haven and pay themselves tax free.

    Or the company never makes a profit and pays less corporation tax (I assume that is how Amazon avoid paying anything here).
    Corporation Tax 19%

    Top income tax rate 45%

    Top dividend tax rate 38.1% and dividends are not deductible for Corporation Tax unlike a salary.

    So by going thru a company you pay 19% on your profits and then 45% or 38.1% on the top band of what you receive (less on the lower bands obviously), but no NI by either the company nor the individual if no salary paid.

    If paid as salary by the club it would be top rate of 45% on most of the salary (assuming whopping salary) plus after the initial NI most of the NI paid on the higher earnings would be at 2%

    There is so much I could write. I am trying to keep it simple. eek is doing a far better job than me.

    As eek mentioned the employer NI is another consideration to take into account.
    Fair enough, but I still don't understand why they bother creating these companies at all if they end up losing money on them.
    You are looking at issues in the past and assuming they are the same as the current situation - they are different things.

    Most Footballers nowadays have far more professional advice than they used to get - it's still not as good as it could be but the days when the advice was the same as an oil worker's bookkeeper has thankfully disappeared
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    isam said:

    isam said:

    @kinabalu

    Glad you enjoyed the Beach Boys songs. The beautiful genius behind the group is anti Trump, the less talented cousin who owns the rights to the name... is

    https://globalnews.ca/news/7405198/brian-wilson-beach-boys-donald-trump-fundraiser/

    I should have finished that with "is Pro Trump"
    With thanks to me 18 year old son for introducing me to 'Panic...'
    'You're just like Mike Love but you'll never be Brain Wilson'
    https://genius.com/Panic-at-the-disco-crazy-genius-lyrics
    An unoriginal choice, I know, but God Only Knows is my favourite Wilson song.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited October 2020

    Some polling out for the US today.
    USC has Biden on +10, +12, +10.

    Trafalgar has 3 new polls out, which I suspect will be discussed here, show:
    FL Trump +2
    AZ Trump +3
    MI Trump +2
    So I suspect not a surprise to anyone.

    A single poll for SD Trump +11

    Oh and since I posted some high Texas polling for Biden.
    University of Texas at Tyler.
    Biden +3

    I personally am putting that one in with Trafalgar as outlier.
    Trafalgar of course being the outlier that was right in being the only pollster to have Trump ahead in PA and Michigan in 2016, they have Biden ahead in PA now and more narrowly in Wisconsin and Trump narrowly ahead in Michigan so are still showing a small swing to Biden but not enough of a swing to win the EC which is plausible.

    Survey Monkey in another Texas poll has Trump up by 4%, if Biden wins a landslide he could win Texas but only in that scenario

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1320158108929372160?s=20
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,717
    kjh said:

    kjh said:


    You really really don't understand this tax business do you, even though I have explained it several times. You don't get to just pay just Corporation Tax if you set up a company. You also pay Income Tax when you pay the money from the company to yourself

    You pay 19% Corporation Tax THEN when you pay it from your company to yourself you pay Income Tax on it.

    So you pay 19% AND 45%.

    OK it isn't quite as simple as that because you make savings on NI, Dividend band of £2000 and more generous allowable expenses and flexibility on when you pay yourself and therefore on when you pay tax BUT it isn't

    19% or 45%. It really isn't.

    I don't know why you think this?

    You pay both unless you leave the money in the company forever!>

    I now know why you believe it. You have read an ITV article that is bollocks. How about checking out the tax rules or listening to someone who have run a limited company for 30 years and paid both Corporation Tax and Income Tax. Yes I paid both on the same income (albeit I made savings elsewhere which more or less cancelled out the extra tax and I had much more flexibility in running my business rather than being a sole trader.)

    Well fair enough I can believe the ITV article to be bollocks. But I'm pretty sure the rates are different to pay if you take a dividend rather than 45% PAYE rate, so I'm not sure of your figures either.

    It does say HMRC are investigating though, so presumably they think there is something in it too, probably some loophole you've not thought of.

    If the dividend rate + savings on NI are less than 45% then that could save tax.

    I'm sure there's some more outrageous loopholes, maybe something like a footballer could keep the money in their company until they retire and spend 6 months in a tax haven and pay themselves tax free.

    Or the company never makes a profit and pays less corporation tax (I assume that is how Amazon avoid paying anything here).
    Corporation Tax 19%

    Top income tax rate 45%

    Top dividend tax rate 38.1% and dividends are not deductible for Corporation Tax unlike a salary.

    So by going thru a company you pay 19% on your profits and then 45% or 38.1% on the top band of what you receive (less on the lower bands obviously), but no NI by either the company nor the individual if no salary paid.

    If paid as salary by the club it would be top rate of 45% on most of the salary (assuming whopping salary) plus after the initial NI most of the NI paid on the higher earnings would be at 2%

    There is so much I could write. I am trying to keep it simple. eek is doing a far better job than me.

    As eek mentioned the employer NI is another consideration to take into account.
    Though company could be paid as deferred dividends after a playing career is over, or paid to a fellow shareholder, such as a spouse, or paid as corporate contribution to a pension scheme. (I think pensions are permitted aged 35 for professional sportspeople).

    Another option is to liquidate the company and pay 10% tax as an Entrepreneur.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Bernard Jenkin said she needs a holiday. No shortage of suggestions so far
    I’d be very tempted were I Labour to make it clear to her that when they get into government she will be sacked from any public role and will be spending a lot of time answering questions in the inquiry into the running of PHE, Test’n’Trace and all the contracts awarded during her time in charge.
    Good to see a lawyer applying the rule of law in a measured fashion ...

    ".... were I Labour" [I would] "make it clear to her that when they get into government she will be sacked from any public role ..."

    Out of interest, can you really do that? Just sack someone without any due process.

    I think Ed Balls tried it in the House of Commons ... didn't we all end up paying damages?

    (I'd be surprised if Dido is openly corrupt, as opposed to grossly incompetent. But the latter is not a hindrance to public office.)
    Yes he did.

    The very nasty and cynical suggested that it was deliberate - so that the person in question could get a nice payout. As a member of the New Upper 10,000 she deserved that.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    IshmaelZ said:

    Worldometer deaths 925/1m, second only to Peru
    Do we know if Gupta has finally accepted that her claim that probably only 100/1m infected by covid die of it and certainly no more than 1000/1m is looking somewhere quite a long way past unlikely?

    And that just maybe her inability to get journals to publish that might have been down to a disagreement with her methodology rather than a dark international conspiracy.
    Surely the Belgian figures bear that out. 925 per million is at the upper end of the scale but cases were being significantly under-reported during the spring. So it looks like the IFR is indeed between 100 and 1000 per million. Or are you misremembering Gupta's figures?
    Are you assuming that 100% of Belgians have had covid to date?
    If any kind of herd immunity kicks in, it’d be at about 66%.
    So past 660 or so per 1m, you’d see cases fall away if there were zero restrictions.
    And, as of today, there would be zero cases, zero hospitalisations, and zero deaths, even if Belgium had zero restrictions.

    I wouldn’t agree that there is any plausible chance that even as many as 92.5% of Belgians have already had covid.

    Surely the example for herd immunity would be Manaus in Brazil - which reached 66% off the population having had COVID.

    2500 dead from less than 2 million.
    66% was the upper estimate, the low being 33% IIRC.

    And cases there are rising again.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited October 2020
    The libertarian love for Sweden continues

    https://twitter.com/KateAndrs/status/1320333585212231684?s=20
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.

    The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8876225/First-Minister-Mark-Drakeford-backs-radical-socialist-traditions.html

    Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
    It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.

    Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).

    Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
    Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
    Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables

    UK Labour 40% Tories 38% LDs 6%

    England Labour 44% Tories 39% LDs 6%

    Scotland SNP 48% Tories 27% Labour 20% LDs 1%

    Wales Tories 40% Labour 29% Plaid 19% LDs 7%

    I rest my case

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-22nd-october-2020/
    Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
    All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1248223276427628546?s=20
    https://twitter.com/DerynConsulting/status/1248217542109335554?s=20
    The Tories are in real contention to be the largest party in the Assembly in Wales next year for the first time since it was created in 1999
    Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
    Paging HYUFD.

    Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
    I thought that was the latest poll as well

    *No idea about HYUFD latest poll showing a large conservative lead

    *Just noticed the poll HYUFD quotes is from last April, he really does not do himself any favours
    HYUFD is something a little bit naughty when it comes to quoting opinion polls. I do not think it acceptable to ignore the most recent polls if they don't fit one's agenda. Likewise his use of subsamples, which I thought was the cardinal sin of opinion polling.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    Some polling out for the US today.
    USC has Biden on +10, +12, +10.

    Trafalgar has 3 new polls out, which I suspect will be discussed here, show:
    FL Trump +2
    AZ Trump +3
    MI Trump +2
    So I suspect not a surprise to anyone.

    A single poll for SD Trump +11

    Oh and since I posted some high Texas polling for Biden.
    University of Texas at Tyler.
    Biden +3

    I personally am putting that one in with Trafalgar as outlier.
    Maybe so, but in my opinion, in wave elections, the outliers on the side of the direction of the wave can end up being the most accurate.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,905

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.

    The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8876225/First-Minister-Mark-Drakeford-backs-radical-socialist-traditions.html

    Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
    It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.

    Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).

    Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
    Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
    Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables

    UK Labour 40% Tories 38% LDs 6%

    England Labour 44% Tories 39% LDs 6%

    Scotland SNP 48% Tories 27% Labour 20% LDs 1%

    Wales Tories 40% Labour 29% Plaid 19% LDs 7%

    I rest my case

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-22nd-october-2020/
    Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
    All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1248223276427628546?s=20
    https://twitter.com/DerynConsulting/status/1248217542109335554?s=20
    The Tories are in real contention to be the largest party in the Assembly in Wales next year for the first time since it was created in 1999
    Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
    Paging HYUFD.

    Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
    I thought that was the latest poll as well

    *No idea about HYUFD latest poll showing a large conservative lead

    *Just noticed the poll HYUFD quotes is from last April, he really does not do himself any favours
    Young HY will carry on siging lustily until the ship goes down. HMS Cronyism and Corruption, previously HMS Conservative Party.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited October 2020
    alex_ said:



    Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.

    Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.

    Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.

    That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).

    55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.

    What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.

    It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    HYUFD said:

    Some polling out for the US today.
    USC has Biden on +10, +12, +10.

    Trafalgar has 3 new polls out, which I suspect will be discussed here, show:
    FL Trump +2
    AZ Trump +3
    MI Trump +2
    So I suspect not a surprise to anyone.

    A single poll for SD Trump +11

    Oh and since I posted some high Texas polling for Biden.
    University of Texas at Tyler.
    Biden +3

    I personally am putting that one in with Trafalgar as outlier.
    Trafalgar of course being the outlier that was right in being the only pollster to have Trump ahead in PA and Michigan in 2016, they have Biden ahead in PA now and more narrowly in Wisconsin and Trump narrowly ahead in Michigan so are still showing a small swing to Biden but not enough of a swing to win the EC which is plausible.

    Survey Monkey in another Texas poll has Trump up by 4%, if Biden wins a landslide he could win Texas but only in that scenario

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1320158108929372160?s=20
    Trafalgar is not an opinion pollster, it is one partisan man in his basement. If he is right, it is not as a result of polling a wide variety of opinion. Your Trafalgar nonsense is really beginning to get to me!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited October 2020

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.

    The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8876225/First-Minister-Mark-Drakeford-backs-radical-socialist-traditions.html

    Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
    It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.

    Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).

    Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
    Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
    Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables

    UK Labour 40% Tories 38% LDs 6%

    England Labour 44% Tories 39% LDs 6%

    Scotland SNP 48% Tories 27% Labour 20% LDs 1%

    Wales Tories 40% Labour 29% Plaid 19% LDs 7%

    I rest my case

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-22nd-october-2020/
    Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
    All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1248223276427628546?s=20
    https://twitter.com/DerynConsulting/status/1248217542109335554?s=20
    The Tories are in real contention to be the largest party in the Assembly in Wales next year for the first time since it was created in 1999
    Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
    Paging HYUFD.

    Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
    I thought that was the latest poll as well

    *No idea about HYUFD latest poll showing a large conservative lead

    *Just noticed the poll HYUFD quotes is from last April, he really does not do himself any favours
    HYUFD is something a little bit naughty when it comes to quoting opinion polls. I do not think it acceptable to ignore the most recent polls if they don't fit one's agenda. Likewise his use of subsamples, which I thought was the cardinal sin of opinion polling.
    Well virtually everyone on here ignores Trafalgar despite the fact they were the only pollster to have Trump winning the EC in 2016 as it does not suit their agenda so what.

    If you wish to believe Drakeford will win a Labour landslide next year that is up to you, the voters will likely prove you wrong come next May and the movement in Wales is to the Tories.

    There is also nothing wrong with using subsamples as long as you point out they are from a UK wide poll
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005

    IshmaelZ said:

    Worldometer deaths 925/1m, second only to Peru
    Do we know if Gupta has finally accepted that her claim that probably only 100/1m infected by covid die of it and certainly no more than 1000/1m is looking somewhere quite a long way past unlikely?

    And that just maybe her inability to get journals to publish that might have been down to a disagreement with her methodology rather than a dark international conspiracy.
    Surely the Belgian figures bear that out. 925 per million is at the upper end of the scale but cases were being significantly under-reported during the spring. So it looks like the IFR is indeed between 100 and 1000 per million. Or are you misremembering Gupta's figures?
    Are you assuming that 100% of Belgians have had covid to date?
    If any kind of herd immunity kicks in, it’d be at about 66%.
    So past 660 or so per 1m, you’d see cases fall away if there were zero restrictions.
    And, as of today, there would be zero cases, zero hospitalisations, and zero deaths, even if Belgium had zero restrictions.

    I wouldn’t agree that there is any plausible chance that even as many as 92.5% of Belgians have already had covid.

    Surely the example for herd immunity would be Manaus in Brazil - which reached 66% off the population having had COVID.

    2500 dead from less than 2 million.
    With a population very much younger on average than here.
    And finding out that they’re still not yet at herd immunity with 200+ hospitalisations and 40+ deaths per day still going.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    Barnier staying now until Wednesday - extended trip - and then will go back to Brussels to follow up.

    It looks to me like the details are being discussed:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54681400
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.

    The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8876225/First-Minister-Mark-Drakeford-backs-radical-socialist-traditions.html

    Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
    It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.

    Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).

    Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
    Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
    Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables

    UK Labour 40% Tories 38% LDs 6%

    England Labour 44% Tories 39% LDs 6%

    Scotland SNP 48% Tories 27% Labour 20% LDs 1%

    Wales Tories 40% Labour 29% Plaid 19% LDs 7%

    I rest my case

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-22nd-october-2020/
    Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
    All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1248223276427628546?s=20
    https://twitter.com/DerynConsulting/status/1248217542109335554?s=20
    The Tories are in real contention to be the largest party in the Assembly in Wales next year for the first time since it was created in 1999
    Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
    Paging HYUFD.

    Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
    I thought that was the latest poll as well

    *No idea about HYUFD latest poll showing a large conservative lead

    *Just noticed the poll HYUFD quotes is from last April, he really does not do himself any favours
    HYUFD is something a little bit naughty when it comes to quoting opinion polls. I do not think it acceptable to ignore the most recent polls if they don't fit one's agenda. Likewise his use of subsamples, which I thought was the cardinal sin of opinion polling.
    Well virtually everyone on here ignores Trafalgar despite the fact they were the only pollster to have Trump winning the EC in 2016 as it does not suit their agenda so what.

    If you wish to believe Drakeford will win a Labour landslide next year that is up to you, the voters will likely prove you wrong come next May and the movement in Wales is to the Tories.

    There is also nothing wrong with using subsamples as long as you point out they are from a UK wide poll
    I just read about Mark Drakeford's son. Strikes me as surprising that didn't hinder him more
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,717

    IshmaelZ said:

    Worldometer deaths 925/1m, second only to Peru
    Do we know if Gupta has finally accepted that her claim that probably only 100/1m infected by covid die of it and certainly no more than 1000/1m is looking somewhere quite a long way past unlikely?

    And that just maybe her inability to get journals to publish that might have been down to a disagreement with her methodology rather than a dark international conspiracy.
    Surely the Belgian figures bear that out. 925 per million is at the upper end of the scale but cases were being significantly under-reported during the spring. So it looks like the IFR is indeed between 100 and 1000 per million. Or are you misremembering Gupta's figures?
    Are you assuming that 100% of Belgians have had covid to date?
    If any kind of herd immunity kicks in, it’d be at about 66%.
    So past 660 or so per 1m, you’d see cases fall away if there were zero restrictions.
    And, as of today, there would be zero cases, zero hospitalisations, and zero deaths, even if Belgium had zero restrictions.

    I wouldn’t agree that there is any plausible chance that even as many as 92.5% of Belgians have already had covid.

    Surely the example for herd immunity would be Manaus in Brazil - which reached 66% off the population having had COVID.

    2500 dead from less than 2 million.
    Where only 6% of the population are over 65.

    It does seem that claims of herd immunity in Manaus are premature. Cases are rising again there.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".

    My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.

    I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.

    The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.

    I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited October 2020

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.

    The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8876225/First-Minister-Mark-Drakeford-backs-radical-socialist-traditions.html

    Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
    It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.

    Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).

    Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
    Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
    Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables

    UK Labour 40% Tories 38% LDs 6%

    England Labour 44% Tories 39% LDs 6%

    Scotland SNP 48% Tories 27% Labour 20% LDs 1%

    Wales Tories 40% Labour 29% Plaid 19% LDs 7%

    I rest my case

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-22nd-october-2020/
    Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
    All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1248223276427628546?s=20
    https://twitter.com/DerynConsulting/status/1248217542109335554?s=20
    The Tories are in real contention to be the largest party in the Assembly in Wales next year for the first time since it was created in 1999
    Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
    Paging HYUFD.

    Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
    I thought that was the latest poll as well

    *No idea about HYUFD latest poll showing a large conservative lead

    *Just noticed the poll HYUFD quotes is from last April, he really does not do himself any favours
    No it was the Opinium numbers from last night which contain the latest Welsh numbers after Drakeford's disastrous latest announcement

    UK Labour 40% Tories 38% LDs 6%

    England Labour 44% Tories 39% LDs 6%

    Scotland SNP 48% Tories 27% Labour 20% LDs 1%

    Wales Tories 40% Labour 29% Plaid 19% LDs 7%


    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-22nd-october-2020/
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.

    The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8876225/First-Minister-Mark-Drakeford-backs-radical-socialist-traditions.html

    Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
    It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.

    Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).

    Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
    Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
    Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables

    UK Labour 40% Tories 38% LDs 6%

    England Labour 44% Tories 39% LDs 6%

    Scotland SNP 48% Tories 27% Labour 20% LDs 1%

    Wales Tories 40% Labour 29% Plaid 19% LDs 7%

    I rest my case

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-22nd-october-2020/
    Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
    All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1248223276427628546?s=20
    https://twitter.com/DerynConsulting/status/1248217542109335554?s=20
    The Tories are in real contention to be the largest party in the Assembly in Wales next year for the first time since it was created in 1999
    Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
    Paging HYUFD.

    Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
    I thought that was the latest poll as well

    *No idea about HYUFD latest poll showing a large conservative lead

    *Just noticed the poll HYUFD quotes is from last April, he really does not do himself any favours
    HYUFD is something a little bit naughty when it comes to quoting opinion polls. I do not think it acceptable to ignore the most recent polls if they don't fit one's agenda. Likewise his use of subsamples, which I thought was the cardinal sin of opinion polling.
    Well virtually everyone on here ignores Trafalgar despite the fact they were the only pollster to have Trump winning the EC in 2016 as it does not suit their agenda so what.

    If you wish to believe Drakeford will win a Labour landslide next year that is up to you, the voters will likely prove you wrong come next May and the movement in Wales is to the Tories
    Trafalgar is not a pollster.

    If the last opinion poll tells me Labour are ahead of the Conservatives that is the one I base my facts on until the next one that might say otherwise. 34% is not going to give anyone a landslide.

    You are a clever guy and your input on here is taken seriously by many people , not least myself. I take my hat off to you calling the 2019 election as early as you did.

    Using fake pollsters and quoting out of date polling does you no favours. You are better than that!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,315

    Cyclefree said:


    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Bernard Jenkin said she needs a holiday. No shortage of suggestions so far
    I’d be very tempted were I Labour to make it clear to her that when they get into government she will be sacked from any public role and will be spending a lot of time answering questions in the inquiry into the running of PHE, Test’n’Trace and all the contracts awarded during her time in charge.
    I see all those supposed qualms about governments behaving vindictively have evaporated then...
    An employer has a right to sack staff subject to the laws that apply. A government has the right - and in this case the duty - to carry out a public inquiry into one of the biggest disasters this country has faced. The circumstances of her appointment are far from transparent as are the contracts that have been awarded. A proper inquiry into all these matters is entirely justified to ensure that any monies spent improperly are recovered for the taxpayer, any other improper behaviour is properly punished and lessons are learnt.

    None of this is vindictive. Nor is it incompatible with the rule of law.

    What is unacceptable is government appointing cronies without any sort of proper process and trying to make it difficult for them to be made properly accountable to taxpayers.
    It is reasonable to have an inquiry but you seem to have predetermined the outcome of the inquiry before it has even happened. My experience of employment law is that sacking someone and then having an inquiry is putting the cart before the horse.

    You should surely have the inquiry and then subject to the inquiry hold any disciplinary action or dismissal not the other way around?
    My inquiry would be into how COVID was handled. As set out here - https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/06/01/the-covid-19-inquiry-a-primer/.

    Labour could certainly take the view that they do not want a Conservative peer appointed to senior NHS roles in less than transparent circumstances in charge of something as important to them as the NHS. And make it clear to Harding privately that if she thinks she can get herself entrenched into some cushy little number because of her contacts she might want to think again because the political wind changes.

    Of course if she were competent at her job her being a Tory and her friendships would matter less. Or not at all.

    The government is behaving like an 18th century government - handing out contracts and sinecure to its friends. There is a “Heads I win, Tails You Lose” approach to some of its behaviour. The Opposition should make it clear that they will not tolerate this, any advantages these people are getting now will be time limited and there will be the most careful scrutiny of the monies and contracts disbursed in the meanwhile.

    I certainly do not think they should behave like Balls did over Sharon Shoosmith. But there are plenty of lawful ways of ensuring changes in senior personnel.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129
    Scott_xP said:
    Pretty sure congenial international relations are possible even when political leaders are in disagreement on political ideologies.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.

    The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8876225/First-Minister-Mark-Drakeford-backs-radical-socialist-traditions.html

    Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
    It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.

    Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).

    Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
    Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
    Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables

    UK Labour 40% Tories 38% LDs 6%

    England Labour 44% Tories 39% LDs 6%

    Scotland SNP 48% Tories 27% Labour 20% LDs 1%

    Wales Tories 40% Labour 29% Plaid 19% LDs 7%

    I rest my case

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-22nd-october-2020/
    Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
    All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1248223276427628546?s=20
    https://twitter.com/DerynConsulting/status/1248217542109335554?s=20
    The Tories are in real contention to be the largest party in the Assembly in Wales next year for the first time since it was created in 1999
    Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
    Paging HYUFD.

    Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
    I thought that was the latest poll as well

    *No idea about HYUFD latest poll showing a large conservative lead

    *Just noticed the poll HYUFD quotes is from last April, he really does not do himself any favours
    HYUFD is something a little bit naughty when it comes to quoting opinion polls. I do not think it acceptable to ignore the most recent polls if they don't fit one's agenda. Likewise his use of subsamples, which I thought was the cardinal sin of opinion polling.
    Well virtually everyone on here ignores Trafalgar despite the fact they were the only pollster to have Trump winning the EC in 2016 as it does not suit their agenda so what.

    If you wish to believe Drakeford will win a Labour landslide next year that is up to you, the voters will likely prove you wrong come next May and the movement in Wales is to the Tories.

    There is also nothing wrong with using subsamples as long as you point out they are from a UK wide poll
    I just read about Mark Drakeford's son. Strikes me as surprising that didn't hinder him more
    It is not very well known.

    Thatcher had to take the flak for her awful son.

    The parents of the Great Wokingham Pizza Abuser must take the flak for their awful son.

    Drakeford should take the flak for his paedophile rapist son.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    MaxPB said:

    Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".

    My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.

    I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.

    The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.

    I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.

    Surely these people now on 2.9k from 4 are saving a fortune by never going out?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.

    The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8876225/First-Minister-Mark-Drakeford-backs-radical-socialist-traditions.html

    Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
    It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.

    Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).

    Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
    Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
    Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables

    UK Labour 40% Tories 38% LDs 6%

    England Labour 44% Tories 39% LDs 6%

    Scotland SNP 48% Tories 27% Labour 20% LDs 1%

    Wales Tories 40% Labour 29% Plaid 19% LDs 7%

    I rest my case

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-22nd-october-2020/
    Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
    All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1248223276427628546?s=20
    https://twitter.com/DerynConsulting/status/1248217542109335554?s=20
    The Tories are in real contention to be the largest party in the Assembly in Wales next year for the first time since it was created in 1999
    Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
    Paging HYUFD.

    Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
    I thought that was the latest poll as well

    *No idea about HYUFD latest poll showing a large conservative lead

    *Just noticed the poll HYUFD quotes is from last April, he really does not do himself any favours
    HYUFD is something a little bit naughty when it comes to quoting opinion polls. I do not think it acceptable to ignore the most recent polls if they don't fit one's agenda. Likewise his use of subsamples, which I thought was the cardinal sin of opinion polling.
    Well virtually everyone on here ignores Trafalgar despite the fact they were the only pollster to have Trump winning the EC in 2016 as it does not suit their agenda so what.

    If you wish to believe Drakeford will win a Labour landslide next year that is up to you, the voters will likely prove you wrong come next May and the movement in Wales is to the Tories.

    There is also nothing wrong with using subsamples as long as you point out they are from a UK wide poll
    I just read about Mark Drakeford's son. Strikes me as surprising that didn't hinder him more
    To be fair to Drakeford nobody is responsible for what their family members do unless they actively assisted them which was clearly not the case here
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.

    The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8876225/First-Minister-Mark-Drakeford-backs-radical-socialist-traditions.html

    Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
    It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.

    Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).

    Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
    Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
    Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables

    UK Labour 40% Tories 38% LDs 6%

    England Labour 44% Tories 39% LDs 6%

    Scotland SNP 48% Tories 27% Labour 20% LDs 1%

    Wales Tories 40% Labour 29% Plaid 19% LDs 7%

    I rest my case

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-22nd-october-2020/
    Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
    All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1248223276427628546?s=20
    https://twitter.com/DerynConsulting/status/1248217542109335554?s=20
    The Tories are in real contention to be the largest party in the Assembly in Wales next year for the first time since it was created in 1999
    Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
    Paging HYUFD.

    Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
    I thought that was the latest poll as well

    *No idea about HYUFD latest poll showing a large conservative lead

    *Just noticed the poll HYUFD quotes is from last April, he really does not do himself any favours
    HYUFD is something a little bit naughty when it comes to quoting opinion polls. I do not think it acceptable to ignore the most recent polls if they don't fit one's agenda. Likewise his use of subsamples, which I thought was the cardinal sin of opinion polling.
    Well virtually everyone on here ignores Trafalgar despite the fact they were the only pollster to have Trump winning the EC in 2016 as it does not suit their agenda so what.

    If you wish to believe Drakeford will win a Labour landslide next year that is up to you, the voters will likely prove you wrong come next May and the movement in Wales is to the Tories.

    There is also nothing wrong with using subsamples as long as you point out they are from a UK wide poll
    I just read about Mark Drakeford's son. Strikes me as surprising that didn't hinder him more
    It is not very well known.

    Thatcher had to take the flak for her awful son.

    The parents of the Great Wokingham Pizza Abuser must take the flak for their awful son.

    Drakeford should take the flak for his paedophile rapist son.
    I think you mean Woking not Wokingham.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.

    The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8876225/First-Minister-Mark-Drakeford-backs-radical-socialist-traditions.html

    Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
    It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.

    Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).

    Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
    Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
    Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables

    UK Labour 40% Tories 38% LDs 6%

    England Labour 44% Tories 39% LDs 6%

    Scotland SNP 48% Tories 27% Labour 20% LDs 1%

    Wales Tories 40% Labour 29% Plaid 19% LDs 7%

    I rest my case

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-22nd-october-2020/
    Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
    All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1248223276427628546?s=20
    https://twitter.com/DerynConsulting/status/1248217542109335554?s=20
    The Tories are in real contention to be the largest party in the Assembly in Wales next year for the first time since it was created in 1999
    Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
    Paging HYUFD.

    Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
    I thought that was the latest poll as well

    *No idea about HYUFD latest poll showing a large conservative lead

    *Just noticed the poll HYUFD quotes is from last April, he really does not do himself any favours
    Early April 2020, wasn't it? Weren't the UK figures for the Conservatives 50%+ at that point?
    Six months ago, but it might as well have been the Roman Empire for its current relevance.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    alex_ said:



    Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.

    Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.

    Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.

    That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).

    55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.

    What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.

    It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
    I think they are popular with (elderly) people on fixed and guaranteed incomes, who suffer few negative economic outcomes. I think it is a mistake to say that the popularity is limited to affluent people in big houses.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited October 2020

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.

    The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8876225/First-Minister-Mark-Drakeford-backs-radical-socialist-traditions.html

    Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
    It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.

    Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).

    Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
    Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
    Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables

    UK Labour 40% Tories 38% LDs 6%

    England Labour 44% Tories 39% LDs 6%

    Scotland SNP 48% Tories 27% Labour 20% LDs 1%

    Wales Tories 40% Labour 29% Plaid 19% LDs 7%

    I rest my case

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-22nd-october-2020/
    Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
    All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1248223276427628546?s=20
    https://twitter.com/DerynConsulting/status/1248217542109335554?s=20
    The Tories are in real contention to be the largest party in the Assembly in Wales next year for the first time since it was created in 1999
    Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
    Paging HYUFD.

    Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
    I thought that was the latest poll as well

    *No idea about HYUFD latest poll showing a large conservative lead

    *Just noticed the poll HYUFD quotes is from last April, he really does not do himself any favours
    Early April 2020, wasn't it? Weren't the UK figures for the Conservatives 50%+ at that point?
    Six months ago, but it might as well have been the Roman Empire for its current relevance.
    I was actually referring to today's Opinium which has figures with the Tories ahead in Wales if you had bothered to read the full thread you would have seen I was only using the April poll to back up it is possible for the Tories to lead in Wales
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,717

    alex_ said:



    Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.

    Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.

    Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.

    That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).

    55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.

    What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.

    It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
    Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.



  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.

    The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8876225/First-Minister-Mark-Drakeford-backs-radical-socialist-traditions.html

    Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
    It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.

    Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).

    Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
    Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
    Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables

    UK Labour 40% Tories 38% LDs 6%

    England Labour 44% Tories 39% LDs 6%

    Scotland SNP 48% Tories 27% Labour 20% LDs 1%

    Wales Tories 40% Labour 29% Plaid 19% LDs 7%

    I rest my case

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-22nd-october-2020/
    Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
    All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1248223276427628546?s=20
    https://twitter.com/DerynConsulting/status/1248217542109335554?s=20
    The Tories are in real contention to be the largest party in the Assembly in Wales next year for the first time since it was created in 1999
    Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
    Paging HYUFD.

    Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
    I thought that was the latest poll as well

    *No idea about HYUFD latest poll showing a large conservative lead

    *Just noticed the poll HYUFD quotes is from last April, he really does not do himself any favours
    Early April 2020, wasn't it? Weren't the UK figures for the Conservatives 50%+ at that point?
    Six months ago, but it might as well have been the Roman Empire for its current relevance.
    Last one was mid September and Labour were 5 points ahead.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    MaxPB said:

    Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".

    My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.

    I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.

    The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.

    I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.

    But the kids of the people in the scenario you describe aren't eligible for free school meals, are they?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,315
    IshmaelZ said:

    Cyclefree said:


    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Bernard Jenkin said she needs a holiday. No shortage of suggestions so far
    I’d be very tempted were I Labour to make it clear to her that when they get into government she will be sacked from any public role and will be spending a lot of time answering questions in the inquiry into the running of PHE, Test’n’Trace and all the contracts awarded during her time in charge.
    I see all those supposed qualms about governments behaving vindictively have evaporated then...
    An employer has a right to sack staff subject to the laws that apply. A government has the right - and in this case the duty - to carry out a public inquiry into one of the biggest disasters this country has faced. The circumstances of her appointment are far from transparent as are the contracts that have been awarded. A proper inquiry into all these matters is entirely justified to ensure that any monies spent improperly are recovered for the taxpayer, any other improper behaviour is properly punished and lessons are learnt.

    None of this is vindictive. Nor is it incompatible with the rule of law.

    What is unacceptable is government appointing cronies without any sort of proper process and trying to make it difficult for them to be made properly accountable to taxpayers.
    You want her threatened with the sack in advance of the evidence, then sacked, then the evidence to be inquired into anyway not in the interests of the attainment of justice, but in terrorem and as an additional punishment. I am genuinely surprised that a member of the English Bar, as I believe you are, should have posted that.
    See latest comment.

    A public inquiry into a public health disaster, in which the head of a key agency has played an important role, does not amount to terrorising anyone.

    Accountability and scrutiny are essential in a well-functioning democracy. It is £12 billion of our money which is being spent. People are being appointed to very senior roles without any sort of open, transparent or proper recruitment process. This is apparently acceptable.

    But steps to inquire into this are not.

    ‘Tis a funny old world.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".

    My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.

    I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.

    The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.

    I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.

    Surely these people now on 2.9k from 4 are saving a fortune by never going out?
    Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves and that was the most generous scenario. Make that a lower income couple who had income of just £1800 each beforehand, they were on £1440 under the 80% system, now on just £1200 so post tax they've gone from £3k to just £2.2k as a household.

    They've done nothing wrong, they've followed the rules and they're getting shat on by a chancellor who doesn't know how the other half live and has no contact with them. All he can see are numbers on a spreadsheet and it's wrong.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    HYUFD said:



    To be fair to Drakeford nobody is responsible for what their family members do unless they actively assisted them which was clearly not the case here

    I think parents do bear some responsibility for how their children turn out.

    Not wholly, but certainly in part.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Cyclefree said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Cyclefree said:


    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Bernard Jenkin said she needs a holiday. No shortage of suggestions so far
    I’d be very tempted were I Labour to make it clear to her that when they get into government she will be sacked from any public role and will be spending a lot of time answering questions in the inquiry into the running of PHE, Test’n’Trace and all the contracts awarded during her time in charge.
    I see all those supposed qualms about governments behaving vindictively have evaporated then...
    An employer has a right to sack staff subject to the laws that apply. A government has the right - and in this case the duty - to carry out a public inquiry into one of the biggest disasters this country has faced. The circumstances of her appointment are far from transparent as are the contracts that have been awarded. A proper inquiry into all these matters is entirely justified to ensure that any monies spent improperly are recovered for the taxpayer, any other improper behaviour is properly punished and lessons are learnt.

    None of this is vindictive. Nor is it incompatible with the rule of law.

    What is unacceptable is government appointing cronies without any sort of proper process and trying to make it difficult for them to be made properly accountable to taxpayers.
    You want her threatened with the sack in advance of the evidence, then sacked, then the evidence to be inquired into anyway not in the interests of the attainment of justice, but in terrorem and as an additional punishment. I am genuinely surprised that a member of the English Bar, as I believe you are, should have posted that.
    See latest comment.

    A public inquiry into a public health disaster, in which the head of a key agency has played an important role, does not amount to terrorising anyone.

    Accountability and scrutiny are essential in a well-functioning democracy. It is £12 billion of our money which is being spent. People are being appointed to very senior roles without any sort of open, transparent or proper recruitment process. This is apparently acceptable.

    But steps to inquire into this are not.

    ‘Tis a funny old world.
    Saying she would be sacked without due process is quite something though.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".

    My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.

    I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.

    The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.

    I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.

    But the kids of the people in the scenario you describe aren't eligible for free school meals, are they?
    I think they would be at their current income and it's the most generous scenario of a middle to higher income couple of £60k pre-tax household income.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:



    Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.

    Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.

    Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.

    That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).

    55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.

    What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.

    It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
    Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.

    If you got 30 per cent of them to vote for you, then you'd win the election.

    There is a vast untapped group of voters in the WA elections, that is my only point.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited October 2020

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.

    The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8876225/First-Minister-Mark-Drakeford-backs-radical-socialist-traditions.html

    Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
    It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.

    Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).

    Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
    Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
    Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables

    UK Labour 40% Tories 38% LDs 6%

    England Labour 44% Tories 39% LDs 6%

    Scotland SNP 48% Tories 27% Labour 20% LDs 1%

    Wales Tories 40% Labour 29% Plaid 19% LDs 7%

    I rest my case

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-22nd-october-2020/
    Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
    All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1248223276427628546?s=20
    https://twitter.com/DerynConsulting/status/1248217542109335554?s=20
    The Tories are in real contention to be the largest party in the Assembly in Wales next year for the first time since it was created in 1999
    Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
    Paging HYUFD.

    Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
    I thought that was the latest poll as well

    *No idea about HYUFD latest poll showing a large conservative lead

    *Just noticed the poll HYUFD quotes is from last April, he really does not do himself any favours
    HYUFD is something a little bit naughty when it comes to quoting opinion polls. I do not think it acceptable to ignore the most recent polls if they don't fit one's agenda. Likewise his use of subsamples, which I thought was the cardinal sin of opinion polling.
    Well virtually everyone on here ignores Trafalgar despite the fact they were the only pollster to have Trump winning the EC in 2016 as it does not suit their agenda so what.

    If you wish to believe Drakeford will win a Labour landslide next year that is up to you, the voters will likely prove you wrong come next May and the movement in Wales is to the Tories
    Trafalgar is not a pollster.

    If the last opinion poll tells me Labour are ahead of the Conservatives that is the one I base my facts on until the next one that might say otherwise. 34% is not going to give anyone a landslide.

    You are a clever guy and your input on here is taken seriously by many people , not least myself. I take my hat off to you calling the 2019 election as early as you did.

    Using fake pollsters and quoting out of date polling does you no favours. You are better than that!
    You have no evidence Trafalgar are not a pollster other than disbelief in their results, they were right going against the herd in 2016 and I have no reason to believe they will not be right this time too so will continue to mention them, this article sets out clearly their methods

    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1320011426103095296?s=20.

    Thankyou for your other comments
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".

    My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.

    I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.

    The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.

    I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.

    Surely these people now on 2.9k from 4 are saving a fortune by never going out?
    Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves and that was the most generous scenario. Make that a lower income couple who had income of just £1800 each beforehand, they were on £1440 under the 80% system, now on just £1200 so post tax they've gone from £3k to just £2.2k as a household.

    They've done nothing wrong, they've followed the rules and they're getting shat on by a chancellor who doesn't know how the other half live and has no contact with them. All he can see are numbers on a spreadsheet and it's wrong.
    "Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves... "

    Obviously, that's what the £2900 goes on. Times are hard, this is a nightmare we can barely have made up. I dont see the govt paying people 2/3rds pf their wages to stay at home as that insufferable really.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    HYUFD said:



    To be fair to Drakeford nobody is responsible for what their family members do unless they actively assisted them which was clearly not the case here

    I think parents do bear some responsibility for how their children turn out.

    Not wholly, but certainly in part.
    What part for an adult in their twenties or thirties ?
  • Foxy said:

    alex_ said:



    Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.

    Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.

    Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.

    That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).

    55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.

    What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.

    It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
    Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.



    It's not Boris they are voting for in the Assembly

    Apart from one North Wales seat the rest are conservative held and the Drakeford supermarket error and getting English police to report Welsh drivers to the Welsh police for prosecution has gone down like a lead balloon
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137

    HYUFD said:



    To be fair to Drakeford nobody is responsible for what their family members do unless they actively assisted them which was clearly not the case here

    I think parents do bear some responsibility for how their children turn out.

    Not wholly, but certainly in part.
    I don't think that is necessarily always true either, some children with loving parents turn out to be shits as adults, some people from broken homes turn out to be model citizens.

    Plus in this case the son in question was autistic with a low iq, not that that excuses the crime he was convicted of
  • RobD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Cyclefree said:


    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Bernard Jenkin said she needs a holiday. No shortage of suggestions so far
    I’d be very tempted were I Labour to make it clear to her that when they get into government she will be sacked from any public role and will be spending a lot of time answering questions in the inquiry into the running of PHE, Test’n’Trace and all the contracts awarded during her time in charge.
    I see all those supposed qualms about governments behaving vindictively have evaporated then...
    An employer has a right to sack staff subject to the laws that apply. A government has the right - and in this case the duty - to carry out a public inquiry into one of the biggest disasters this country has faced. The circumstances of her appointment are far from transparent as are the contracts that have been awarded. A proper inquiry into all these matters is entirely justified to ensure that any monies spent improperly are recovered for the taxpayer, any other improper behaviour is properly punished and lessons are learnt.

    None of this is vindictive. Nor is it incompatible with the rule of law.

    What is unacceptable is government appointing cronies without any sort of proper process and trying to make it difficult for them to be made properly accountable to taxpayers.
    You want her threatened with the sack in advance of the evidence, then sacked, then the evidence to be inquired into anyway not in the interests of the attainment of justice, but in terrorem and as an additional punishment. I am genuinely surprised that a member of the English Bar, as I believe you are, should have posted that.
    See latest comment.

    A public inquiry into a public health disaster, in which the head of a key agency has played an important role, does not amount to terrorising anyone.

    Accountability and scrutiny are essential in a well-functioning democracy. It is £12 billion of our money which is being spent. People are being appointed to very senior roles without any sort of open, transparent or proper recruitment process. This is apparently acceptable.

    But steps to inquire into this are not.

    ‘Tis a funny old world.
    Saying she would be sacked without due process is quite something though.
    The due process has already happened.

    Or do you genuinely think our track and trace is world beating, or even vaguely competent.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,717

    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:



    Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.

    Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.

    Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.

    That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).

    55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.

    What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.

    It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
    Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.

    If you got 30 per cent of them to vote for you, then you'd win the election.

    There is a vast untapped group of voters in the WA elections, that is my only point.
    Why would they suddenly turnout next year though, when turnout in elections other than General Elections is perennially low?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".

    My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.

    I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.

    The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.

    I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.

    Surely these people now on 2.9k from 4 are saving a fortune by never going out?
    Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves and that was the most generous scenario. Make that a lower income couple who had income of just £1800 each beforehand, they were on £1440 under the 80% system, now on just £1200 so post tax they've gone from £3k to just £2.2k as a household.

    They've done nothing wrong, they've followed the rules and they're getting shat on by a chancellor who doesn't know how the other half live and has no contact with them. All he can see are numbers on a spreadsheet and it's wrong.
    "Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves... "

    Obviously, that's what the £2900 goes on. Times are hard, this is a nightmare we can barely have made up. I dont see the govt paying people 2/3rds pf their wages to stay at home as that insufferable really.
    And lower income families? What do they do? Single income families? They just have to deal with it right?

    The government has put rules in place that makes it impossible for these people to earn a living. They have done nothing wrong.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2020
    MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".

    My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.

    I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.

    The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.

    I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.

    Surely these people now on 2.9k from 4 are saving a fortune by never going out?
    Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves and that was the most generous scenario. Make that a lower income couple who had income of just £1800 each beforehand, they were on £1440 under the 80% system, now on just £1200 so post tax they've gone from £3k to just £2.2k as a household.

    They've done nothing wrong, they've followed the rules and they're getting shat on by a chancellor who doesn't know how the other half live and has no contact with them. All he can see are numbers on a spreadsheet and it's wrong.
    "Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves... "

    Obviously, that's what the £2900 goes on. Times are hard, this is a nightmare we can barely have made up. I dont see the govt paying people 2/3rds pf their wages to stay at home as that insufferable really.
    And lower income families? What do they do? Single income families? They just have to deal with it right?

    The government has put rules in place that makes it impossible for these people to earn a living. They have done nothing wrong.
    You picked the numbers you thought illustrated the unfairness, not me!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.

    The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8876225/First-Minister-Mark-Drakeford-backs-radical-socialist-traditions.html

    Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
    It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.

    Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).

    Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
    Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
    Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables

    UK Labour 40% Tories 38% LDs 6%

    England Labour 44% Tories 39% LDs 6%

    Scotland SNP 48% Tories 27% Labour 20% LDs 1%

    Wales Tories 40% Labour 29% Plaid 19% LDs 7%

    I rest my case

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-22nd-october-2020/
    Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
    All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1248223276427628546?s=20
    https://twitter.com/DerynConsulting/status/1248217542109335554?s=20
    The Tories are in real contention to be the largest party in the Assembly in Wales next year for the first time since it was created in 1999
    Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
    Paging HYUFD.

    Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
    I thought that was the latest poll as well

    *No idea about HYUFD latest poll showing a large conservative lead

    *Just noticed the poll HYUFD quotes is from last April, he really does not do himself any favours
    HYUFD is something a little bit naughty when it comes to quoting opinion polls. I do not think it acceptable to ignore the most recent polls if they don't fit one's agenda. Likewise his use of subsamples, which I thought was the cardinal sin of opinion polling.
    Well virtually everyone on here ignores Trafalgar despite the fact they were the only pollster to have Trump winning the EC in 2016 as it does not suit their agenda so what.

    If you wish to believe Drakeford will win a Labour landslide next year that is up to you, the voters will likely prove you wrong come next May and the movement in Wales is to the Tories
    Trafalgar is not a pollster.

    If the last opinion poll tells me Labour are ahead of the Conservatives that is the one I base my facts on until the next one that might say otherwise. 34% is not going to give anyone a landslide.

    You are a clever guy and your input on here is taken seriously by many people , not least myself. I take my hat off to you calling the 2019 election as early as you did.

    Using fake pollsters and quoting out of date polling does you no favours. You are better than that!
    You have no evidence Trafalgar are not a pollster other than disbelief in their results, they were right going against the herd in 2016 and I have no reason to believe they will not be right this time too so will continue to mention them, this article sets out clearly their methods

    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1320011426103095296?s=20.

    Thankyou for your other comments
    Robert spoke to the guy and wrote a dissertation on the call. He tried to give a balanced view but still came to the conclusion that the guy at best someone who did not adhere to the standards terms of reference used by legitimate pollsters. Reading between the lines I assume he concluded the guy was more sinister than that (my interpretation).

    Luntz is a Trump hack. Asking Linz for a balanced view on Election 2020 is like asking Nigel Farage for a balanced view on Brexit. Even if he wanted to, he couldn't.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398
    isam said:
    My concern is that they don't think - they just come up with ideas while ignoring the obvious flaws contained within the idea.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".

    My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.

    I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.

    The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.

    I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.

    Surely these people now on 2.9k from 4 are saving a fortune by never going out?
    Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves and that was the most generous scenario. Make that a lower income couple who had income of just £1800 each beforehand, they were on £1440 under the 80% system, now on just £1200 so post tax they've gone from £3k to just £2.2k as a household.

    They've done nothing wrong, they've followed the rules and they're getting shat on by a chancellor who doesn't know how the other half live and has no contact with them. All he can see are numbers on a spreadsheet and it's wrong.
    To be fair the chancellor will have met many people in Richmond North Yorkshire living on the amounts you have given.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    eek said:

    isam said:
    My concern is that they don't think - they just come up with ideas while ignoring the obvious flaws contained within the idea.
    As opposed to the current way of doing things, which is perfect!
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited October 2020
    HYUFD said:
    1) What do you think the methodological changes applied since 2016 will have done to the relative projections of the Biden vs Clinton votes
    2) Some of the "surprise" states that Trump won in 2016 were barely polled throughout the campaign because it was assumed that Clinton had them in the bag. So were not very reliable. That is not the case this time
    3) What equivalent event to the Comey decision to reopen the Clinton email investigation do you anticipate impacting negatively on the Biden campaign in the next week?
  • kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Pretty sure congenial international relations are possible even when political leaders are in disagreement on political ideologies.
    Of course but a hard border in Ireland is very difficult for politicians in the US to ignore.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:



    Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.

    Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.

    Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.

    That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).

    55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.

    What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.

    It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
    Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.

    If you got 30 per cent of them to vote for you, then you'd win the election.

    There is a vast untapped group of voters in the WA elections, that is my only point.
    Why would they suddenly turnout next year though, when turnout in elections other than General Elections is perennially low?
    Normally they wouldn't but make no mistake this has turned Drakeford from 'someone in Cardiff' to someone who has angered a lot of people and become infamous overnight with this debacle

    This has cut through in Wales and Drakeford is in the firing line
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".

    My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.

    I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.

    The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.

    I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.

    Surely these people now on 2.9k from 4 are saving a fortune by never going out?
    Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves and that was the most generous scenario. Make that a lower income couple who had income of just £1800 each beforehand, they were on £1440 under the 80% system, now on just £1200 so post tax they've gone from £3k to just £2.2k as a household.

    They've done nothing wrong, they've followed the rules and they're getting shat on by a chancellor who doesn't know how the other half live and has no contact with them. All he can see are numbers on a spreadsheet and it's wrong.
    "Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves... "

    Obviously, that's what the £2900 goes on. Times are hard, this is a nightmare we can barely have made up. I dont see the govt paying people 2/3rds pf their wages to stay at home as that insufferable really.
    And lower income families? What do they do? Single income families? They just have to deal with it right?

    The government has put rules in place that makes it impossible for these people to earn a living. They have done nothing wrong.
    You picked the numbers you thought illustrated the unfairness, not me!
    I picked the most generous situation, but change it to £35k household income which is around the average outside of London. Those people are going from £2.7k per month to just £1.9k per month. It's going to cause serious hardship for families who have already faced serious hardship. That's without taking into account he stupid rules over self employed only getting 50% for having the temerity to be self employed.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,717

    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:



    Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.

    Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.

    Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.

    That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).

    55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.

    What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.

    It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
    Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.



    It's not Boris they are voting for in the Assembly

    Apart from one North Wales seat the rest are conservative held and the Drakeford supermarket error and getting English police to report Welsh drivers to the Welsh police for prosecution has gone down like a lead balloon
    We know Johnson is a major drag on the Conservative vote in Scotland.

    What is his popularity amongst the Welsh?

    So fas as I can see, he is underwater:

    https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2020-09-14/poll-reveals-how-much-political-leaders-are-liked-and-disliked-in-wales
  • HYUFD said:

    Some polling out for the US today.
    USC has Biden on +10, +12, +10.

    Trafalgar has 3 new polls out, which I suspect will be discussed here, show:
    FL Trump +2
    AZ Trump +3
    MI Trump +2
    So I suspect not a surprise to anyone.

    A single poll for SD Trump +11

    Oh and since I posted some high Texas polling for Biden.
    University of Texas at Tyler.
    Biden +3

    I personally am putting that one in with Trafalgar as outlier.
    Trafalgar of course being the outlier that was right in being the only pollster to have Trump ahead in PA and Michigan in 2016, they have Biden ahead in PA now and more narrowly in Wisconsin and Trump narrowly ahead in Michigan so are still showing a small swing to Biden but not enough of a swing to win the EC which is plausible.

    Survey Monkey in another Texas poll has Trump up by 4%, if Biden wins a landslide he could win Texas but only in that scenario

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1320158108929372160?s=20
    Been round the block with Trafalgar conversion/debate before so will leave it there.

    Survey monkey is interesting to see and play with their interactive takes. However their field work is over 1 month so I tend to ignore their results, just as USC is useful to confirm a trend for me, but not a current snap shot poll.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398
    isam said:

    eek said:

    isam said:
    My concern is that they don't think - they just come up with ideas while ignoring the obvious flaws contained within the idea.
    As opposed to the current way of doing things, which is perfect!
    True but I've always felt that Austrian School viewpoints don't really work in pandemics which requires dealing with groups.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited October 2020
    alex_ said:

    HYUFD said:
    1) What do you think the methodological changes applied since 2016 will have done to the relative projections of the Biden vs Clinton votes
    2) Some of the "surprise" states that Trump won in 2016 were barely polled throughout the campaign because it was assumed that Clinton had them in the bag. So were not very reliable. That is not the case this time
    3) What equivalent event to the Comey decision to reopen the Clinton email investigation do you anticipate impacting negatively on the Biden campaign in the next week?
    1) Little in terms of shy Trump voters
    2) There were plenty of Michigan and Pennsylvania polls in 2016, all bar Trafalgar was wrong, there were still 12 polls of Wisconsin alone in October and November 2016, every single one was wrong and had Hillary ahead. Hillary's average poll lead in Wisconsin on eve of poll was 6.5%, Trump won Wisconsin on election day by 0.7%.
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html
    3) I doubt that made much real difference, Hillary's average poll lead in Wisconsin for example actually had increased on eve of poll from where it was in late October.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:



    Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.

    Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.

    Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.

    That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).

    55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.

    What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.

    It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
    Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.



    It's not Boris they are voting for in the Assembly

    Apart from one North Wales seat the rest are conservative held and the Drakeford supermarket error and getting English police to report Welsh drivers to the Welsh police for prosecution has gone down like a lead balloon
    We know Johnson is a major drag on the Conservative vote in Scotland.

    What is his popularity amongst the Welsh?

    So fas as I can see, he is underwater:

    https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2020-09-14/poll-reveals-how-much-political-leaders-are-liked-and-disliked-in-wales
    Drakeford has replaced him
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".

    My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.

    I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.

    The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.

    I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.

    Surely these people now on 2.9k from 4 are saving a fortune by never going out?
    Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves and that was the most generous scenario. Make that a lower income couple who had income of just £1800 each beforehand, they were on £1440 under the 80% system, now on just £1200 so post tax they've gone from £3k to just £2.2k as a household.

    They've done nothing wrong, they've followed the rules and they're getting shat on by a chancellor who doesn't know how the other half live and has no contact with them. All he can see are numbers on a spreadsheet and it's wrong.
    "Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves... "

    Obviously, that's what the £2900 goes on. Times are hard, this is a nightmare we can barely have made up. I dont see the govt paying people 2/3rds pf their wages to stay at home as that insufferable really.
    And lower income families? What do they do? Single income families? They just have to deal with it right?

    The government has put rules in place that makes it impossible for these people to earn a living. They have done nothing wrong.
    You picked the numbers you thought illustrated the unfairness, not me!
    I picked the most generous situation, but change it to £35k household income which is around the average outside of London. Those people are going from £2.7k per month to just £1.9k per month. It's going to cause serious hardship for families who have already faced serious hardship. That's without taking into account he stupid rules over self employed only getting 50% for having the temerity to be self employed.
    Sorry I just don't see it as that bad
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,805
    eek said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:


    You really really don't understand this tax business do you, even though I have explained it several times. You don't get to just pay just Corporation Tax if you set up a company. You also pay Income Tax when you pay the money from the company to yourself

    You pay 19% Corporation Tax THEN when you pay it from your company to yourself you pay Income Tax on it.

    So you pay 19% AND 45%.

    OK it isn't quite as simple as that because you make savings on NI, Dividend band of £2000 and more generous allowable expenses and flexibility on when you pay yourself and therefore on when you pay tax BUT it isn't

    19% or 45%. It really isn't.

    I don't know why you think this?

    You pay both unless you leave the money in the company forever!>

    I now know why you believe it. You have read an ITV article that is bollocks. How about checking out the tax rules or listening to someone who have run a limited company for 30 years and paid both Corporation Tax and Income Tax. Yes I paid both on the same income (albeit I made savings elsewhere which more or less cancelled out the extra tax and I had much more flexibility in running my business rather than being a sole trader.)

    Well fair enough I can believe the ITV article to be bollocks. But I'm pretty sure the rates are different to pay if you take a dividend rather than 45% PAYE rate, so I'm not sure of your figures either.

    It does say HMRC are investigating though, so presumably they think there is something in it too, probably some loophole you've not thought of.

    If the dividend rate + savings on NI are less than 45% then that could save tax.

    I'm sure there's some more outrageous loopholes, maybe something like a footballer could keep the money in their company until they retire and spend 6 months in a tax haven and pay themselves tax free.

    Or the company never makes a profit and pays less corporation tax (I assume that is how Amazon avoid paying anything here).
    Corporation Tax 19%

    Top income tax rate 45%

    Top dividend tax rate 38.1% and dividends are not deductible for Corporation Tax unlike a salary.

    So by going thru a company you pay 19% on your profits and then 45% or 38.1% on the top band of what you receive (less on the lower bands obviously), but no NI by either the company nor the individual if no salary paid.

    If paid as salary by the club it would be top rate of 45% on most of the salary (assuming whopping salary) plus after the initial NI most of the NI paid on the higher earnings would be at 2%

    There is so much I could write. I am trying to keep it simple. eek is doing a far better job than me.

    As eek mentioned the employer NI is another consideration to take into account.
    When it comes to tax at the moment it's always about Employers NI.

    Heck I trademarked a phase this month that employment agencies can use when advertising rates so they can offer a clear explanation of where the money goes come April and the next set of IR35 changes arrive.
    Absolutely agree.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".

    My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.

    I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.

    The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.

    I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.

    Surely these people now on 2.9k from 4 are saving a fortune by never going out?
    Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves and that was the most generous scenario. Make that a lower income couple who had income of just £1800 each beforehand, they were on £1440 under the 80% system, now on just £1200 so post tax they've gone from £3k to just £2.2k as a household.

    They've done nothing wrong, they've followed the rules and they're getting shat on by a chancellor who doesn't know how the other half live and has no contact with them. All he can see are numbers on a spreadsheet and it's wrong.
    "Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves... "

    Obviously, that's what the £2900 goes on. Times are hard, this is a nightmare we can barely have made up. I dont see the govt paying people 2/3rds pf their wages to stay at home as that insufferable really.
    I agree in the circumstances the government in my opinion has got this about right.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited October 2020
    On the 2016 comparisons, if we'd had 2020-style early/mail voting in 2016 so Hillary banked a lot of votes before the Comey letter dropped, do we reckon she'd still have lost?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.

    The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8876225/First-Minister-Mark-Drakeford-backs-radical-socialist-traditions.html

    Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
    It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.

    Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).

    Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
    Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
    Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables

    UK Labour 40% Tories 38% LDs 6%

    England Labour 44% Tories 39% LDs 6%

    Scotland SNP 48% Tories 27% Labour 20% LDs 1%

    Wales Tories 40% Labour 29% Plaid 19% LDs 7%

    I rest my case

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-22nd-october-2020/
    Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
    All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1248223276427628546?s=20
    https://twitter.com/DerynConsulting/status/1248217542109335554?s=20
    The Tories are in real contention to be the largest party in the Assembly in Wales next year for the first time since it was created in 1999
    Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
    Paging HYUFD.

    Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
    I thought that was the latest poll as well

    *No idea about HYUFD latest poll showing a large conservative lead

    *Just noticed the poll HYUFD quotes is from last April, he really does not do himself any favours
    HYUFD is something a little bit naughty when it comes to quoting opinion polls. I do not think it acceptable to ignore the most recent polls if they don't fit one's agenda. Likewise his use of subsamples, which I thought was the cardinal sin of opinion polling.
    Well virtually everyone on here ignores Trafalgar despite the fact they were the only pollster to have Trump winning the EC in 2016 as it does not suit their agenda so what.

    If you wish to believe Drakeford will win a Labour landslide next year that is up to you, the voters will likely prove you wrong come next May and the movement in Wales is to the Tories
    Trafalgar is not a pollster.

    If the last opinion poll tells me Labour are ahead of the Conservatives that is the one I base my facts on until the next one that might say otherwise. 34% is not going to give anyone a landslide.

    You are a clever guy and your input on here is taken seriously by many people , not least myself. I take my hat off to you calling the 2019 election as early as you did.

    Using fake pollsters and quoting out of date polling does you no favours. You are better than that!
    You have no evidence Trafalgar are not a pollster
    Yes we do. We have presented it on this here board. You are ignoring it.
  • isam said:
    You genuinely think Covid-19 can be defeated by a political campaign?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2020

    isam said:
    You genuinely think Covid-19 can be defeated by a political campaign?
    Oh yeah of course that's what I meant!

    Everyone else seems to though, otherwise they wouldn't be blaming politicians for the deaths
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,717

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:



    Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.

    Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.

    Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.

    That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).

    55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.

    What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.

    It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
    Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.



    It's not Boris they are voting for in the Assembly

    Apart from one North Wales seat the rest are conservative held and the Drakeford supermarket error and getting English police to report Welsh drivers to the Welsh police for prosecution has gone down like a lead balloon
    We know Johnson is a major drag on the Conservative vote in Scotland.

    What is his popularity amongst the Welsh?

    So fas as I can see, he is underwater:

    https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2020-09-14/poll-reveals-how-much-political-leaders-are-liked-and-disliked-in-wales
    Drakeford has replaced him
    Do you have any polling evidence for that, or is that just from a survey of your true blue household?
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:



    Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.

    Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.

    Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.

    That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).

    55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.

    What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.

    It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
    Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.



    It's not Boris they are voting for in the Assembly

    Apart from one North Wales seat the rest are conservative held and the Drakeford supermarket error and getting English police to report Welsh drivers to the Welsh police for prosecution has gone down like a lead balloon
    We know Johnson is a major drag on the Conservative vote in Scotland.

    What is his popularity amongst the Welsh?

    So fas as I can see, he is underwater:

    https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2020-09-14/poll-reveals-how-much-political-leaders-are-liked-and-disliked-in-wales
    Drakeford has replaced him
    You have consistently said the same about Nicola Sturgeon, Drakeford must be relieved to hear your analysis.
  • MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".

    My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.

    I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.

    The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.

    I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.

    Surely these people now on 2.9k from 4 are saving a fortune by never going out?
    Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves and that was the most generous scenario. Make that a lower income couple who had income of just £1800 each beforehand, they were on £1440 under the 80% system, now on just £1200 so post tax they've gone from £3k to just £2.2k as a household.

    They've done nothing wrong, they've followed the rules and they're getting shat on by a chancellor who doesn't know how the other half live and has no contact with them. All he can see are numbers on a spreadsheet and it's wrong.
    "Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves... "

    Obviously, that's what the £2900 goes on. Times are hard, this is a nightmare we can barely have made up. I dont see the govt paying people 2/3rds pf their wages to stay at home as that insufferable really.
    And lower income families? What do they do? Single income families? They just have to deal with it right?

    The government has put rules in place that makes it impossible for these people to earn a living. They have done nothing wrong.
    You picked the numbers you thought illustrated the unfairness, not me!
    I picked the most generous situation, but change it to £35k household income which is around the average outside of London. Those people are going from £2.7k per month to just £1.9k per month. It's going to cause serious hardship for families who have already faced serious hardship. That's without taking into account he stupid rules over self employed only getting 50% for having the temerity to be self employed.
    You used to get £80 a week jobseekers allowance if you couldn't work, £1.9k is pretty generous.

    £1.9k per month without working isn't that much different to £2.7k if you take into account work expenses and the extra time you have to plan your finances. Not to mention that you don't actually have to work to get the money!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    isam said:
    You genuinely think Covid-19 can be defeated by a political campaign?
    Whatever the government is doing isn't working so maybe a political campaign for new or different policies is what we need?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited October 2020
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:



    Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.

    Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.

    Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.

    That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).

    55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.

    What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.

    It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
    Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.

    If you got 30 per cent of them to vote for you, then you'd win the election.

    There is a vast untapped group of voters in the WA elections, that is my only point.
    Why would they suddenly turnout next year though, when turnout in elections other than General Elections is perennially low?
    Gosh, it is hard work.

    Voters turn out in an election when they have been given a reason to vote.

    That could be because they have seen an inspiring politician (but this is Wales and they are all pretty crap).

    Or it could be because someone has royally pissed them off
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,805

    kjh said:

    kjh said:


    You really really don't understand this tax business do you, even though I have explained it several times. You don't get to just pay just Corporation Tax if you set up a company. You also pay Income Tax when you pay the money from the company to yourself

    You pay 19% Corporation Tax THEN when you pay it from your company to yourself you pay Income Tax on it.

    So you pay 19% AND 45%.

    OK it isn't quite as simple as that because you make savings on NI, Dividend band of £2000 and more generous allowable expenses and flexibility on when you pay yourself and therefore on when you pay tax BUT it isn't

    19% or 45%. It really isn't.

    I don't know why you think this?

    You pay both unless you leave the money in the company forever!>

    I now know why you believe it. You have read an ITV article that is bollocks. How about checking out the tax rules or listening to someone who have run a limited company for 30 years and paid both Corporation Tax and Income Tax. Yes I paid both on the same income (albeit I made savings elsewhere which more or less cancelled out the extra tax and I had much more flexibility in running my business rather than being a sole trader.)

    Well fair enough I can believe the ITV article to be bollocks. But I'm pretty sure the rates are different to pay if you take a dividend rather than 45% PAYE rate, so I'm not sure of your figures either.

    It does say HMRC are investigating though, so presumably they think there is something in it too, probably some loophole you've not thought of.

    If the dividend rate + savings on NI are less than 45% then that could save tax.

    I'm sure there's some more outrageous loopholes, maybe something like a footballer could keep the money in their company until they retire and spend 6 months in a tax haven and pay themselves tax free.

    Or the company never makes a profit and pays less corporation tax (I assume that is how Amazon avoid paying anything here).
    Corporation Tax 19%

    Top income tax rate 45%

    Top dividend tax rate 38.1% and dividends are not deductible for Corporation Tax unlike a salary.

    So by going thru a company you pay 19% on your profits and then 45% or 38.1% on the top band of what you receive (less on the lower bands obviously), but no NI by either the company nor the individual if no salary paid.

    If paid as salary by the club it would be top rate of 45% on most of the salary (assuming whopping salary) plus after the initial NI most of the NI paid on the higher earnings would be at 2%

    There is so much I could write. I am trying to keep it simple. eek is doing a far better job than me.

    As eek mentioned the employer NI is another consideration to take into account.
    Fair enough, but I still don't understand why they bother creating these companies at all if they end up losing money on them.
    There are lots of swings and roundabouts so you have to look at the individual circumstances, but there are lots of other reasons to set up a company. As I said I did because it made my life a lot easier and from a tax perspective I wasn't worse off, but equally I didn't profit from it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,671
    edited October 2020
    MaxPB said:

    isam said:
    You genuinely think Covid-19 can be defeated by a political campaign?
    Whatever the government is doing isn't working so maybe a political campaign for new or different policies is what we need?
    I look forward to the referendum where we vote to leave Covid-19.

    Remember the ERG rarely published their research, when they did, it was often without evidence or highly partisan.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.

    The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8876225/First-Minister-Mark-Drakeford-backs-radical-socialist-traditions.html

    Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
    It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.

    Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).

    Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
    Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
    Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables

    UK Labour 40% Tories 38% LDs 6%

    England Labour 44% Tories 39% LDs 6%

    Scotland SNP 48% Tories 27% Labour 20% LDs 1%

    Wales Tories 40% Labour 29% Plaid 19% LDs 7%

    I rest my case

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-22nd-october-2020/
    Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
    All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1248223276427628546?s=20
    https://twitter.com/DerynConsulting/status/1248217542109335554?s=20
    The Tories are in real contention to be the largest party in the Assembly in Wales next year for the first time since it was created in 1999
    Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
    Paging HYUFD.

    Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
    I thought that was the latest poll as well

    *No idea about HYUFD latest poll showing a large conservative lead

    *Just noticed the poll HYUFD quotes is from last April, he really does not do himself any favours
    Early April 2020, wasn't it? Weren't the UK figures for the Conservatives 50%+ at that point?
    Six months ago, but it might as well have been the Roman Empire for its current relevance.
    I was actually referring to today's Opinium which has figures with the Tories ahead in Wales if you had bothered to read the full thread you would have seen I was only using the April poll to back up it is possible for the Tories to lead in Wales
    But that poll taken at that time is only really evidence for how strange things were in late March and early April. It's a curio, albeit a fascinating one.
This discussion has been closed.