Bernard Jenkin said she needs a holiday. No shortage of suggestions so far
I’d be very tempted were I Labour to make it clear to her that when they get into government she will be sacked from any public role and will be spending a lot of time answering questions in the inquiry into the running of PHE, Test’n’Trace and all the contracts awarded during her time in charge.
I see all those supposed qualms about governments behaving vindictively have evaporated then...
An employer has a right to sack staff subject to the laws that apply. A government has the right - and in this case the duty - to carry out a public inquiry into one of the biggest disasters this country has faced. The circumstances of her appointment are far from transparent as are the contracts that have been awarded. A proper inquiry into all these matters is entirely justified to ensure that any monies spent improperly are recovered for the taxpayer, any other improper behaviour is properly punished and lessons are learnt.
None of this is vindictive. Nor is it incompatible with the rule of law.
What is unacceptable is government appointing cronies without any sort of proper process and trying to make it difficult for them to be made properly accountable to taxpayers.
You want her threatened with the sack in advance of the evidence, then sacked, then the evidence to be inquired into anyway not in the interests of the attainment of justice, but in terrorem and as an additional punishment. I am genuinely surprised that a member of the English Bar, as I believe you are, should have posted that.
You really really don't understand this tax business do you, even though I have explained it several times. You don't get to just pay just Corporation Tax if you set up a company. You also pay Income Tax when you pay the money from the company to yourself
You pay 19% Corporation Tax THEN when you pay it from your company to yourself you pay Income Tax on it.
So you pay 19% AND 45%.
OK it isn't quite as simple as that because you make savings on NI, Dividend band of £2000 and more generous allowable expenses and flexibility on when you pay yourself and therefore on when you pay tax BUT it isn't
19% or 45%. It really isn't.
I don't know why you think this?
You pay both unless you leave the money in the company forever!>
I now know why you believe it. You have read an ITV article that is bollocks. How about checking out the tax rules or listening to someone who have run a limited company for 30 years and paid both Corporation Tax and Income Tax. Yes I paid both on the same income (albeit I made savings elsewhere which more or less cancelled out the extra tax and I had much more flexibility in running my business rather than being a sole trader.)
Well fair enough I can believe the ITV article to be bollocks. But I'm pretty sure the rates are different to pay if you take a dividend rather than 45% PAYE rate, so I'm not sure of your figures either.
It does say HMRC are investigating though, so presumably they think there is something in it too, probably some loophole you've not thought of.
If the dividend rate + savings on NI are less than 45% then that could save tax.
I'm sure there's some more outrageous loopholes, maybe something like a footballer could keep the money in their company until they retire and spend 6 months in a tax haven and pay themselves tax free.
Or the company never makes a profit and pays less corporation tax (I assume that is how Amazon avoid paying anything here).
Corporation Tax 19%
Top income tax rate 45%
Top dividend tax rate 38.1% and dividends are not deductible for Corporation Tax unlike a salary.
So by going thru a company you pay 19% on your profits and then 45% or 38.1% on the top band of what you receive (less on the lower bands obviously), but no NI by either the company nor the individual if no salary paid.
If paid as salary by the club it would be top rate of 45% on most of the salary (assuming whopping salary) plus after the initial NI most of the NI paid on the higher earnings would be at 2%
There is so much I could write. I am trying to keep it simple. eek is doing a far better job than me.
As eek mentioned the employer NI is another consideration to take into account.
Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.
The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.
Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.
Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).
Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables
Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats
Some polling out for the US today. USC has Biden on +10, +12, +10.
Trafalgar has 3 new polls out, which I suspect will be discussed here, show: FL Trump +2 AZ Trump +3 MI Trump +2 So I suspect not a surprise to anyone.
A single poll for SD Trump +11
Oh and since I posted some high Texas polling for Biden. University of Texas at Tyler. Biden +3
I personally am putting that one in with Trafalgar as outlier.
You really really don't understand this tax business do you, even though I have explained it several times. You don't get to just pay just Corporation Tax if you set up a company. You also pay Income Tax when you pay the money from the company to yourself
You pay 19% Corporation Tax THEN when you pay it from your company to yourself you pay Income Tax on it.
So you pay 19% AND 45%.
OK it isn't quite as simple as that because you make savings on NI, Dividend band of £2000 and more generous allowable expenses and flexibility on when you pay yourself and therefore on when you pay tax BUT it isn't
19% or 45%. It really isn't.
I don't know why you think this?
You pay both unless you leave the money in the company forever!>
I now know why you believe it. You have read an ITV article that is bollocks. How about checking out the tax rules or listening to someone who have run a limited company for 30 years and paid both Corporation Tax and Income Tax. Yes I paid both on the same income (albeit I made savings elsewhere which more or less cancelled out the extra tax and I had much more flexibility in running my business rather than being a sole trader.)
Well fair enough I can believe the ITV article to be bollocks. But I'm pretty sure the rates are different to pay if you take a dividend rather than 45% PAYE rate, so I'm not sure of your figures either.
It does say HMRC are investigating though, so presumably they think there is something in it too, probably some loophole you've not thought of.
If the dividend rate + savings on NI are less than 45% then that could save tax.
I'm sure there's some more outrageous loopholes, maybe something like a footballer could keep the money in their company until they retire and spend 6 months in a tax haven and pay themselves tax free. .
I showed the rates earlier (income tax and dividend tax work out as roughly the same, the employer does save employer NI on dividend payments though).
And you might be able to remove money from the company on a tax free basis but there are now 5 year rules allowing clawback and Corporation tax (at 19%) would have been paid when the company original received the money so it's nowhere near tax free.
Sadly you are hitting an area I know an awful lot about and while it's fun watching people dig holes with their lack of knowledge it's also pretty pointless.
Basically footballers will be paying tax on their income - the real issue ends up being Employer NI which is currently the bane of the entire industry (it's £70bn a year the Government doesn't want disappearing).
Actually I didn't say it was tax free, I said they use the companies to pay less tax, which you seem to be saying is possible now.
Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.
The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.
Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.
Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).
Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables
Not a very good case, young HY. Politics as we know it has shut down since the general election. It ought to have started up again in the spring, with the local elections, but Covid put a stop to that. From what I hear, the Lib Dems are just starting to get going again, though not necessarily everywhere. Meanwhile, take whatever comfort you can from the opinion polls you quote. Those figures will not last.
Opposition in Wales is split between Plaid and the Conservatives.
For as long as that continues, the Welsh First Minister will continue to be Labour.
Bernard Jenkin said she needs a holiday. No shortage of suggestions so far
I’d be very tempted were I Labour to make it clear to her that when they get into government she will be sacked from any public role and will be spending a lot of time answering questions in the inquiry into the running of PHE, Test’n’Trace and all the contracts awarded during her time in charge.
I see all those supposed qualms about governments behaving vindictively have evaporated then...
An employer has a right to sack staff subject to the laws that apply. A government has the right - and in this case the duty - to carry out a public inquiry into one of the biggest disasters this country has faced. The circumstances of her appointment are far from transparent as are the contracts that have been awarded. A proper inquiry into all these matters is entirely justified to ensure that any monies spent improperly are recovered for the taxpayer, any other improper behaviour is properly punished and lessons are learnt.
None of this is vindictive. Nor is it incompatible with the rule of law.
What is unacceptable is government appointing cronies without any sort of proper process and trying to make it difficult for them to be made properly accountable to taxpayers.
It is reasonable to have an inquiry but you seem to have predetermined the outcome of the inquiry before it has even happened. My experience of employment law is that sacking someone and then having an inquiry is putting the cart before the horse.
You should surely have the inquiry and then subject to the inquiry hold any disciplinary action or dismissal not the other way around?
I'm quite sure that using repeated enquiries as punishment is a good path to go down.
Unless we want to end up like the US - where *asking a question* that embarrasses a politician on camera often leads to an IRS audit and/or every over vaguely applicable agency coming after you.
Bernard Jenkin said she needs a holiday. No shortage of suggestions so far
I’d be very tempted were I Labour to make it clear to her that when they get into government she will be sacked from any public role and will be spending a lot of time answering questions in the inquiry into the running of PHE, Test’n’Trace and all the contracts awarded during her time in charge.
Good to see a lawyer applying the rule of law in a measured fashion ...
".... were I Labour" [I would] "make it clear to her that when they get into government she will be sacked from any public role ..."
Out of interest, can you really do that? Just sack someone without any due process.
I think Ed Balls tried it in the House of Commons ... didn't we all end up paying damages?
(I'd be surprised if Dido is openly corrupt, as opposed to grossly incompetent. But the latter is not a hindrance to public office.)
Might as well add in a Tier 0 for good measure. Bring in some consistency across the UK...
Now if there's a smile on my face It's only there trying to fool the public But when it comes down to fooling you Now, honey, that's quite a different subject But don't let my glad expression Give you the wrong impression Really I'm sad, Oh I'm sadder than sad You're gone, and I'm hurtin' so bad Like a clown, I pretend to be glad
Now there's some sad things known to man But ain't too much sadder than the Tiers of a clown, When there's no one around...
Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.
The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.
Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.
Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).
Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables
Not a very good case, young HY. Politics as we know it has shut down since the general election. It ought to have started up again in the spring, with the local elections, but Covid put a stop to that. From what I hear, the Lib Dems are just starting to get going again, though not necessarily everywhere. Meanwhile, take whatever comfort you can from the opinion polls you quote. Those figures will not last.
Opposition in Wales is split between Plaid and the Conservatives.
For as long as that continues, the Welsh First Minister will continue to be Labour.
Except even if the Tories just keep the 36% they got at GE19 it only takes 5 to 10% to move from the 40% Labour got to move to Plaid and the Tories would be largest party even if no further movement from Labour to the Tories at all and Opinium suggests after Drakeford's disastrous announcements there has been movement from Welsh Labour to the Welsh Tories too.
Now Drakeford might still be able to stay FM even if the Tories win most Assembly seats with Plaid and LD support but it would be a humiliation for Welsh Labour no doubt
Do we know if Gupta has finally accepted that her claim that probably only 100/1m infected by covid die of it and certainly no more than 1000/1m is looking somewhere quite a long way past unlikely?
And that just maybe her inability to get journals to publish that might have been down to a disagreement with her methodology rather than a dark international conspiracy.
Surely the Belgian figures bear that out. 925 per million is at the upper end of the scale but cases were being significantly under-reported during the spring. So it looks like the IFR is indeed between 100 and 1000 per million. Or are you misremembering Gupta's figures?
Are you assuming that 100% of Belgians have had covid to date? If any kind of herd immunity kicks in, it’d be at about 66%. So past 660 or so per 1m, you’d see cases fall away if there were zero restrictions. And, as of today, there would be zero cases, zero hospitalisations, and zero deaths, even if Belgium had zero restrictions.
I wouldn’t agree that there is any plausible chance that even as many as 92.5% of Belgians have already had covid.
Surely the example for herd immunity would be Manaus in Brazil - which reached 66% off the population having had COVID.
You really really don't understand this tax business do you, even though I have explained it several times. You don't get to just pay just Corporation Tax if you set up a company. You also pay Income Tax when you pay the money from the company to yourself
You pay 19% Corporation Tax THEN when you pay it from your company to yourself you pay Income Tax on it.
So you pay 19% AND 45%.
OK it isn't quite as simple as that because you make savings on NI, Dividend band of £2000 and more generous allowable expenses and flexibility on when you pay yourself and therefore on when you pay tax BUT it isn't
19% or 45%. It really isn't.
I don't know why you think this?
You pay both unless you leave the money in the company forever!>
I now know why you believe it. You have read an ITV article that is bollocks. How about checking out the tax rules or listening to someone who have run a limited company for 30 years and paid both Corporation Tax and Income Tax. Yes I paid both on the same income (albeit I made savings elsewhere which more or less cancelled out the extra tax and I had much more flexibility in running my business rather than being a sole trader.)
Well fair enough I can believe the ITV article to be bollocks. But I'm pretty sure the rates are different to pay if you take a dividend rather than 45% PAYE rate, so I'm not sure of your figures either.
It does say HMRC are investigating though, so presumably they think there is something in it too, probably some loophole you've not thought of.
If the dividend rate + savings on NI are less than 45% then that could save tax.
I'm sure there's some more outrageous loopholes, maybe something like a footballer could keep the money in their company until they retire and spend 6 months in a tax haven and pay themselves tax free.
Or the company never makes a profit and pays less corporation tax (I assume that is how Amazon avoid paying anything here).
Corporation Tax 19%
Top income tax rate 45%
Top dividend tax rate 38.1% and dividends are not deductible for Corporation Tax unlike a salary.
So by going thru a company you pay 19% on your profits and then 45% or 38.1% on the top band of what you receive (less on the lower bands obviously), but no NI by either the company nor the individual if no salary paid.
If paid as salary by the club it would be top rate of 45% on most of the salary (assuming whopping salary) plus after the initial NI most of the NI paid on the higher earnings would be at 2%
There is so much I could write. I am trying to keep it simple. eek is doing a far better job than me.
As eek mentioned the employer NI is another consideration to take into account.
Fair enough, but I still don't understand why they bother creating these companies at all if they end up losing money on them.
Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.
The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.
Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.
Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).
Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables
Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats
Who was the last Prime Minister of Great Britain and the UK who was neither Conservative, Labour, nor Liberal?
Bonus point for the year(s) when this person was in power.
No cheating!
Well technically the right answer is Ramsay MacDonald between 1931 and 1935 when he lead National Labour.
But I suppose the answer you're looking for is Viscount Palmerston in the 1850s, when he led the Whigs.
Does Douglas-Home count as a Conservative, or was he technically a Scots Tory?
I suppose that counts, or does it?
Relying on Wiki, i assume the answer will be JRM. But in passing i noticed that Boris Johnson, in addition to being First Lord of the Treasury and Minister for the Civil Service, made himself "Minister for the Union". How's that going...?
You really really don't understand this tax business do you, even though I have explained it several times. You don't get to just pay just Corporation Tax if you set up a company. You also pay Income Tax when you pay the money from the company to yourself
You pay 19% Corporation Tax THEN when you pay it from your company to yourself you pay Income Tax on it.
So you pay 19% AND 45%.
OK it isn't quite as simple as that because you make savings on NI, Dividend band of £2000 and more generous allowable expenses and flexibility on when you pay yourself and therefore on when you pay tax BUT it isn't
19% or 45%. It really isn't.
I don't know why you think this?
You pay both unless you leave the money in the company forever!>
I now know why you believe it. You have read an ITV article that is bollocks. How about checking out the tax rules or listening to someone who have run a limited company for 30 years and paid both Corporation Tax and Income Tax. Yes I paid both on the same income (albeit I made savings elsewhere which more or less cancelled out the extra tax and I had much more flexibility in running my business rather than being a sole trader.)
Well fair enough I can believe the ITV article to be bollocks. But I'm pretty sure the rates are different to pay if you take a dividend rather than 45% PAYE rate, so I'm not sure of your figures either.
It does say HMRC are investigating though, so presumably they think there is something in it too, probably some loophole you've not thought of.
If the dividend rate + savings on NI are less than 45% then that could save tax.
I'm sure there's some more outrageous loopholes, maybe something like a footballer could keep the money in their company until they retire and spend 6 months in a tax haven and pay themselves tax free.
Or the company never makes a profit and pays less corporation tax (I assume that is how Amazon avoid paying anything here).
Corporation Tax 19%
Top income tax rate 45%
Top dividend tax rate 38.1% and dividends are not deductible for Corporation Tax unlike a salary.
So by going thru a company you pay 19% on your profits and then 45% or 38.1% on the top band of what you receive (less on the lower bands obviously), but no NI by either the company nor the individual if no salary paid.
If paid as salary by the club it would be top rate of 45% on most of the salary (assuming whopping salary) plus after the initial NI most of the NI paid on the higher earnings would be at 2%
There is so much I could write. I am trying to keep it simple. eek is doing a far better job than me.
As eek mentioned the employer NI is another consideration to take into account.
When it comes to tax at the moment it's always about Employers NI.
Heck I trademarked a phase this month that employment agencies can use when advertising rates so they can offer a clear explanation of where the money goes come April and the next set of IR35 changes arrive.
When the government said we were only allowed x amount of people inside our homes, it struck me as a bit odd that the rule was the same no matter how big the home - Surely someone with a 5 bedroom house should be allowed more people round than someone in a bedsit?
Did the govt make this so to prevent the criticism of there being one rule for them etc? Or am I misremembering the rules?
Simplicity, probably.
What all the various restrictions, around the world, share is this - they are attempts to reduce R. On *average*.
So every single regulation, in every single country, has exceptions that make it seem stupid. But if enough people follow the rules/regulations, then *on average* the transmission goes down.
Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.
The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.
Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.
Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).
Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables
Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats
Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.
The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.
Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.
Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).
Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables
Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats
You really really don't understand this tax business do you, even though I have explained it several times. You don't get to just pay just Corporation Tax if you set up a company. You also pay Income Tax when you pay the money from the company to yourself
You pay 19% Corporation Tax THEN when you pay it from your company to yourself you pay Income Tax on it.
So you pay 19% AND 45%.
OK it isn't quite as simple as that because you make savings on NI, Dividend band of £2000 and more generous allowable expenses and flexibility on when you pay yourself and therefore on when you pay tax BUT it isn't
19% or 45%. It really isn't.
I don't know why you think this?
You pay both unless you leave the money in the company forever!>
I now know why you believe it. You have read an ITV article that is bollocks. How about checking out the tax rules or listening to someone who have run a limited company for 30 years and paid both Corporation Tax and Income Tax. Yes I paid both on the same income (albeit I made savings elsewhere which more or less cancelled out the extra tax and I had much more flexibility in running my business rather than being a sole trader.)
Well fair enough I can believe the ITV article to be bollocks. But I'm pretty sure the rates are different to pay if you take a dividend rather than 45% PAYE rate, so I'm not sure of your figures either.
It does say HMRC are investigating though, so presumably they think there is something in it too, probably some loophole you've not thought of.
If the dividend rate + savings on NI are less than 45% then that could save tax.
I'm sure there's some more outrageous loopholes, maybe something like a footballer could keep the money in their company until they retire and spend 6 months in a tax haven and pay themselves tax free.
Or the company never makes a profit and pays less corporation tax (I assume that is how Amazon avoid paying anything here).
Corporation Tax 19%
Top income tax rate 45%
Top dividend tax rate 38.1% and dividends are not deductible for Corporation Tax unlike a salary.
So by going thru a company you pay 19% on your profits and then 45% or 38.1% on the top band of what you receive (less on the lower bands obviously), but no NI by either the company nor the individual if no salary paid.
If paid as salary by the club it would be top rate of 45% on most of the salary (assuming whopping salary) plus after the initial NI most of the NI paid on the higher earnings would be at 2%
There is so much I could write. I am trying to keep it simple. eek is doing a far better job than me.
As eek mentioned the employer NI is another consideration to take into account.
Fair enough, but I still don't understand why they bother creating these companies at all if they end up losing money on them.
You are looking at issues in the past and assuming they are the same as the current situation - they are different things.
Most Footballers nowadays have far more professional advice than they used to get - it's still not as good as it could be but the days when the advice was the same as an oil worker's bookkeeper has thankfully disappeared
Glad you enjoyed the Beach Boys songs. The beautiful genius behind the group is anti Trump, the less talented cousin who owns the rights to the name... is
Some polling out for the US today. USC has Biden on +10, +12, +10.
Trafalgar has 3 new polls out, which I suspect will be discussed here, show: FL Trump +2 AZ Trump +3 MI Trump +2 So I suspect not a surprise to anyone.
A single poll for SD Trump +11
Oh and since I posted some high Texas polling for Biden. University of Texas at Tyler. Biden +3
I personally am putting that one in with Trafalgar as outlier.
Trafalgar of course being the outlier that was right in being the only pollster to have Trump ahead in PA and Michigan in 2016, they have Biden ahead in PA now and more narrowly in Wisconsin and Trump narrowly ahead in Michigan so are still showing a small swing to Biden but not enough of a swing to win the EC which is plausible.
Survey Monkey in another Texas poll has Trump up by 4%, if Biden wins a landslide he could win Texas but only in that scenario
You really really don't understand this tax business do you, even though I have explained it several times. You don't get to just pay just Corporation Tax if you set up a company. You also pay Income Tax when you pay the money from the company to yourself
You pay 19% Corporation Tax THEN when you pay it from your company to yourself you pay Income Tax on it.
So you pay 19% AND 45%.
OK it isn't quite as simple as that because you make savings on NI, Dividend band of £2000 and more generous allowable expenses and flexibility on when you pay yourself and therefore on when you pay tax BUT it isn't
19% or 45%. It really isn't.
I don't know why you think this?
You pay both unless you leave the money in the company forever!>
I now know why you believe it. You have read an ITV article that is bollocks. How about checking out the tax rules or listening to someone who have run a limited company for 30 years and paid both Corporation Tax and Income Tax. Yes I paid both on the same income (albeit I made savings elsewhere which more or less cancelled out the extra tax and I had much more flexibility in running my business rather than being a sole trader.)
Well fair enough I can believe the ITV article to be bollocks. But I'm pretty sure the rates are different to pay if you take a dividend rather than 45% PAYE rate, so I'm not sure of your figures either.
It does say HMRC are investigating though, so presumably they think there is something in it too, probably some loophole you've not thought of.
If the dividend rate + savings on NI are less than 45% then that could save tax.
I'm sure there's some more outrageous loopholes, maybe something like a footballer could keep the money in their company until they retire and spend 6 months in a tax haven and pay themselves tax free.
Or the company never makes a profit and pays less corporation tax (I assume that is how Amazon avoid paying anything here).
Corporation Tax 19%
Top income tax rate 45%
Top dividend tax rate 38.1% and dividends are not deductible for Corporation Tax unlike a salary.
So by going thru a company you pay 19% on your profits and then 45% or 38.1% on the top band of what you receive (less on the lower bands obviously), but no NI by either the company nor the individual if no salary paid.
If paid as salary by the club it would be top rate of 45% on most of the salary (assuming whopping salary) plus after the initial NI most of the NI paid on the higher earnings would be at 2%
There is so much I could write. I am trying to keep it simple. eek is doing a far better job than me.
As eek mentioned the employer NI is another consideration to take into account.
Though company could be paid as deferred dividends after a playing career is over, or paid to a fellow shareholder, such as a spouse, or paid as corporate contribution to a pension scheme. (I think pensions are permitted aged 35 for professional sportspeople).
Another option is to liquidate the company and pay 10% tax as an Entrepreneur.
Bernard Jenkin said she needs a holiday. No shortage of suggestions so far
I’d be very tempted were I Labour to make it clear to her that when they get into government she will be sacked from any public role and will be spending a lot of time answering questions in the inquiry into the running of PHE, Test’n’Trace and all the contracts awarded during her time in charge.
Good to see a lawyer applying the rule of law in a measured fashion ...
".... were I Labour" [I would] "make it clear to her that when they get into government she will be sacked from any public role ..."
Out of interest, can you really do that? Just sack someone without any due process.
I think Ed Balls tried it in the House of Commons ... didn't we all end up paying damages?
(I'd be surprised if Dido is openly corrupt, as opposed to grossly incompetent. But the latter is not a hindrance to public office.)
Yes he did.
The very nasty and cynical suggested that it was deliberate - so that the person in question could get a nice payout. As a member of the New Upper 10,000 she deserved that.
Do we know if Gupta has finally accepted that her claim that probably only 100/1m infected by covid die of it and certainly no more than 1000/1m is looking somewhere quite a long way past unlikely?
And that just maybe her inability to get journals to publish that might have been down to a disagreement with her methodology rather than a dark international conspiracy.
Surely the Belgian figures bear that out. 925 per million is at the upper end of the scale but cases were being significantly under-reported during the spring. So it looks like the IFR is indeed between 100 and 1000 per million. Or are you misremembering Gupta's figures?
Are you assuming that 100% of Belgians have had covid to date? If any kind of herd immunity kicks in, it’d be at about 66%. So past 660 or so per 1m, you’d see cases fall away if there were zero restrictions. And, as of today, there would be zero cases, zero hospitalisations, and zero deaths, even if Belgium had zero restrictions.
I wouldn’t agree that there is any plausible chance that even as many as 92.5% of Belgians have already had covid.
Surely the example for herd immunity would be Manaus in Brazil - which reached 66% off the population having had COVID.
2500 dead from less than 2 million.
66% was the upper estimate, the low being 33% IIRC.
Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.
The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.
Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.
Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).
Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables
Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats
Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
Paging HYUFD.
Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
I thought that was the latest poll as well
*No idea about HYUFD latest poll showing a large conservative lead
*Just noticed the poll HYUFD quotes is from last April, he really does not do himself any favours
HYUFD is something a little bit naughty when it comes to quoting opinion polls. I do not think it acceptable to ignore the most recent polls if they don't fit one's agenda. Likewise his use of subsamples, which I thought was the cardinal sin of opinion polling.
Some polling out for the US today. USC has Biden on +10, +12, +10.
Trafalgar has 3 new polls out, which I suspect will be discussed here, show: FL Trump +2 AZ Trump +3 MI Trump +2 So I suspect not a surprise to anyone.
A single poll for SD Trump +11
Oh and since I posted some high Texas polling for Biden. University of Texas at Tyler. Biden +3
I personally am putting that one in with Trafalgar as outlier.
Maybe so, but in my opinion, in wave elections, the outliers on the side of the direction of the wave can end up being the most accurate.
Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.
The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.
Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.
Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).
Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables
Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats
Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
Some polling out for the US today. USC has Biden on +10, +12, +10.
Trafalgar has 3 new polls out, which I suspect will be discussed here, show: FL Trump +2 AZ Trump +3 MI Trump +2 So I suspect not a surprise to anyone.
A single poll for SD Trump +11
Oh and since I posted some high Texas polling for Biden. University of Texas at Tyler. Biden +3
I personally am putting that one in with Trafalgar as outlier.
Trafalgar of course being the outlier that was right in being the only pollster to have Trump ahead in PA and Michigan in 2016, they have Biden ahead in PA now and more narrowly in Wisconsin and Trump narrowly ahead in Michigan so are still showing a small swing to Biden but not enough of a swing to win the EC which is plausible.
Survey Monkey in another Texas poll has Trump up by 4%, if Biden wins a landslide he could win Texas but only in that scenario
Trafalgar is not an opinion pollster, it is one partisan man in his basement. If he is right, it is not as a result of polling a wide variety of opinion. Your Trafalgar nonsense is really beginning to get to me!
Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.
The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.
Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.
Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).
Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables
Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats
Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
Paging HYUFD.
Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
I thought that was the latest poll as well
*No idea about HYUFD latest poll showing a large conservative lead
*Just noticed the poll HYUFD quotes is from last April, he really does not do himself any favours
HYUFD is something a little bit naughty when it comes to quoting opinion polls. I do not think it acceptable to ignore the most recent polls if they don't fit one's agenda. Likewise his use of subsamples, which I thought was the cardinal sin of opinion polling.
Well virtually everyone on here ignores Trafalgar despite the fact they were the only pollster to have Trump winning the EC in 2016 as it does not suit their agenda so what.
If you wish to believe Drakeford will win a Labour landslide next year that is up to you, the voters will likely prove you wrong come next May and the movement in Wales is to the Tories.
There is also nothing wrong with using subsamples as long as you point out they are from a UK wide poll
Do we know if Gupta has finally accepted that her claim that probably only 100/1m infected by covid die of it and certainly no more than 1000/1m is looking somewhere quite a long way past unlikely?
And that just maybe her inability to get journals to publish that might have been down to a disagreement with her methodology rather than a dark international conspiracy.
Surely the Belgian figures bear that out. 925 per million is at the upper end of the scale but cases were being significantly under-reported during the spring. So it looks like the IFR is indeed between 100 and 1000 per million. Or are you misremembering Gupta's figures?
Are you assuming that 100% of Belgians have had covid to date? If any kind of herd immunity kicks in, it’d be at about 66%. So past 660 or so per 1m, you’d see cases fall away if there were zero restrictions. And, as of today, there would be zero cases, zero hospitalisations, and zero deaths, even if Belgium had zero restrictions.
I wouldn’t agree that there is any plausible chance that even as many as 92.5% of Belgians have already had covid.
Surely the example for herd immunity would be Manaus in Brazil - which reached 66% off the population having had COVID.
2500 dead from less than 2 million.
With a population very much younger on average than here. And finding out that they’re still not yet at herd immunity with 200+ hospitalisations and 40+ deaths per day still going.
Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.
The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.
Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.
Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).
Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables
Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats
Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
Paging HYUFD.
Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
I thought that was the latest poll as well
*No idea about HYUFD latest poll showing a large conservative lead
*Just noticed the poll HYUFD quotes is from last April, he really does not do himself any favours
HYUFD is something a little bit naughty when it comes to quoting opinion polls. I do not think it acceptable to ignore the most recent polls if they don't fit one's agenda. Likewise his use of subsamples, which I thought was the cardinal sin of opinion polling.
Well virtually everyone on here ignores Trafalgar despite the fact they were the only pollster to have Trump winning the EC in 2016 as it does not suit their agenda so what.
If you wish to believe Drakeford will win a Labour landslide next year that is up to you, the voters will likely prove you wrong come next May and the movement in Wales is to the Tories.
There is also nothing wrong with using subsamples as long as you point out they are from a UK wide poll
I just read about Mark Drakeford's son. Strikes me as surprising that didn't hinder him more
Do we know if Gupta has finally accepted that her claim that probably only 100/1m infected by covid die of it and certainly no more than 1000/1m is looking somewhere quite a long way past unlikely?
And that just maybe her inability to get journals to publish that might have been down to a disagreement with her methodology rather than a dark international conspiracy.
Surely the Belgian figures bear that out. 925 per million is at the upper end of the scale but cases were being significantly under-reported during the spring. So it looks like the IFR is indeed between 100 and 1000 per million. Or are you misremembering Gupta's figures?
Are you assuming that 100% of Belgians have had covid to date? If any kind of herd immunity kicks in, it’d be at about 66%. So past 660 or so per 1m, you’d see cases fall away if there were zero restrictions. And, as of today, there would be zero cases, zero hospitalisations, and zero deaths, even if Belgium had zero restrictions.
I wouldn’t agree that there is any plausible chance that even as many as 92.5% of Belgians have already had covid.
Surely the example for herd immunity would be Manaus in Brazil - which reached 66% off the population having had COVID.
2500 dead from less than 2 million.
Where only 6% of the population are over 65.
It does seem that claims of herd immunity in Manaus are premature. Cases are rising again there.
Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".
My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.
I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.
The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.
I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.
Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.
The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.
Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.
Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).
Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables
Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats
Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.
The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.
Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.
Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).
Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables
Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats
Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
Paging HYUFD.
Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
I thought that was the latest poll as well
*No idea about HYUFD latest poll showing a large conservative lead
*Just noticed the poll HYUFD quotes is from last April, he really does not do himself any favours
HYUFD is something a little bit naughty when it comes to quoting opinion polls. I do not think it acceptable to ignore the most recent polls if they don't fit one's agenda. Likewise his use of subsamples, which I thought was the cardinal sin of opinion polling.
Well virtually everyone on here ignores Trafalgar despite the fact they were the only pollster to have Trump winning the EC in 2016 as it does not suit their agenda so what.
If you wish to believe Drakeford will win a Labour landslide next year that is up to you, the voters will likely prove you wrong come next May and the movement in Wales is to the Tories
Trafalgar is not a pollster.
If the last opinion poll tells me Labour are ahead of the Conservatives that is the one I base my facts on until the next one that might say otherwise. 34% is not going to give anyone a landslide.
You are a clever guy and your input on here is taken seriously by many people , not least myself. I take my hat off to you calling the 2019 election as early as you did.
Using fake pollsters and quoting out of date polling does you no favours. You are better than that!
Bernard Jenkin said she needs a holiday. No shortage of suggestions so far
I’d be very tempted were I Labour to make it clear to her that when they get into government she will be sacked from any public role and will be spending a lot of time answering questions in the inquiry into the running of PHE, Test’n’Trace and all the contracts awarded during her time in charge.
I see all those supposed qualms about governments behaving vindictively have evaporated then...
An employer has a right to sack staff subject to the laws that apply. A government has the right - and in this case the duty - to carry out a public inquiry into one of the biggest disasters this country has faced. The circumstances of her appointment are far from transparent as are the contracts that have been awarded. A proper inquiry into all these matters is entirely justified to ensure that any monies spent improperly are recovered for the taxpayer, any other improper behaviour is properly punished and lessons are learnt.
None of this is vindictive. Nor is it incompatible with the rule of law.
What is unacceptable is government appointing cronies without any sort of proper process and trying to make it difficult for them to be made properly accountable to taxpayers.
It is reasonable to have an inquiry but you seem to have predetermined the outcome of the inquiry before it has even happened. My experience of employment law is that sacking someone and then having an inquiry is putting the cart before the horse.
You should surely have the inquiry and then subject to the inquiry hold any disciplinary action or dismissal not the other way around?
Labour could certainly take the view that they do not want a Conservative peer appointed to senior NHS roles in less than transparent circumstances in charge of something as important to them as the NHS. And make it clear to Harding privately that if she thinks she can get herself entrenched into some cushy little number because of her contacts she might want to think again because the political wind changes.
Of course if she were competent at her job her being a Tory and her friendships would matter less. Or not at all.
The government is behaving like an 18th century government - handing out contracts and sinecure to its friends. There is a “Heads I win, Tails You Lose” approach to some of its behaviour. The Opposition should make it clear that they will not tolerate this, any advantages these people are getting now will be time limited and there will be the most careful scrutiny of the monies and contracts disbursed in the meanwhile.
I certainly do not think they should behave like Balls did over Sharon Shoosmith. But there are plenty of lawful ways of ensuring changes in senior personnel.
Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.
The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.
Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.
Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).
Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables
Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats
Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
Paging HYUFD.
Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
I thought that was the latest poll as well
*No idea about HYUFD latest poll showing a large conservative lead
*Just noticed the poll HYUFD quotes is from last April, he really does not do himself any favours
HYUFD is something a little bit naughty when it comes to quoting opinion polls. I do not think it acceptable to ignore the most recent polls if they don't fit one's agenda. Likewise his use of subsamples, which I thought was the cardinal sin of opinion polling.
Well virtually everyone on here ignores Trafalgar despite the fact they were the only pollster to have Trump winning the EC in 2016 as it does not suit their agenda so what.
If you wish to believe Drakeford will win a Labour landslide next year that is up to you, the voters will likely prove you wrong come next May and the movement in Wales is to the Tories.
There is also nothing wrong with using subsamples as long as you point out they are from a UK wide poll
I just read about Mark Drakeford's son. Strikes me as surprising that didn't hinder him more
It is not very well known.
Thatcher had to take the flak for her awful son.
The parents of the Great Wokingham Pizza Abuser must take the flak for their awful son.
Drakeford should take the flak for his paedophile rapist son.
Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".
My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.
I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.
The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.
I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.
Surely these people now on 2.9k from 4 are saving a fortune by never going out?
Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.
The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.
Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.
Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).
Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables
Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats
Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
Paging HYUFD.
Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
I thought that was the latest poll as well
*No idea about HYUFD latest poll showing a large conservative lead
*Just noticed the poll HYUFD quotes is from last April, he really does not do himself any favours
HYUFD is something a little bit naughty when it comes to quoting opinion polls. I do not think it acceptable to ignore the most recent polls if they don't fit one's agenda. Likewise his use of subsamples, which I thought was the cardinal sin of opinion polling.
Well virtually everyone on here ignores Trafalgar despite the fact they were the only pollster to have Trump winning the EC in 2016 as it does not suit their agenda so what.
If you wish to believe Drakeford will win a Labour landslide next year that is up to you, the voters will likely prove you wrong come next May and the movement in Wales is to the Tories.
There is also nothing wrong with using subsamples as long as you point out they are from a UK wide poll
I just read about Mark Drakeford's son. Strikes me as surprising that didn't hinder him more
To be fair to Drakeford nobody is responsible for what their family members do unless they actively assisted them which was clearly not the case here
Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.
The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.
Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.
Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).
Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables
Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats
Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
Paging HYUFD.
Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
I thought that was the latest poll as well
*No idea about HYUFD latest poll showing a large conservative lead
*Just noticed the poll HYUFD quotes is from last April, he really does not do himself any favours
HYUFD is something a little bit naughty when it comes to quoting opinion polls. I do not think it acceptable to ignore the most recent polls if they don't fit one's agenda. Likewise his use of subsamples, which I thought was the cardinal sin of opinion polling.
Well virtually everyone on here ignores Trafalgar despite the fact they were the only pollster to have Trump winning the EC in 2016 as it does not suit their agenda so what.
If you wish to believe Drakeford will win a Labour landslide next year that is up to you, the voters will likely prove you wrong come next May and the movement in Wales is to the Tories.
There is also nothing wrong with using subsamples as long as you point out they are from a UK wide poll
I just read about Mark Drakeford's son. Strikes me as surprising that didn't hinder him more
It is not very well known.
Thatcher had to take the flak for her awful son.
The parents of the Great Wokingham Pizza Abuser must take the flak for their awful son.
Drakeford should take the flak for his paedophile rapist son.
Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.
The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.
Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.
Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).
Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables
Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats
Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
Paging HYUFD.
Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
I thought that was the latest poll as well
*No idea about HYUFD latest poll showing a large conservative lead
*Just noticed the poll HYUFD quotes is from last April, he really does not do himself any favours
Early April 2020, wasn't it? Weren't the UK figures for the Conservatives 50%+ at that point? Six months ago, but it might as well have been the Roman Empire for its current relevance.
Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
I think they are popular with (elderly) people on fixed and guaranteed incomes, who suffer few negative economic outcomes. I think it is a mistake to say that the popularity is limited to affluent people in big houses.
Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.
The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.
Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.
Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).
Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables
Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats
Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
Paging HYUFD.
Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
I thought that was the latest poll as well
*No idea about HYUFD latest poll showing a large conservative lead
*Just noticed the poll HYUFD quotes is from last April, he really does not do himself any favours
Early April 2020, wasn't it? Weren't the UK figures for the Conservatives 50%+ at that point? Six months ago, but it might as well have been the Roman Empire for its current relevance.
I was actually referring to today's Opinium which has figures with the Tories ahead in Wales if you had bothered to read the full thread you would have seen I was only using the April poll to back up it is possible for the Tories to lead in Wales
Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.
Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.
The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.
Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.
Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).
Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables
Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats
Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
Paging HYUFD.
Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
I thought that was the latest poll as well
*No idea about HYUFD latest poll showing a large conservative lead
*Just noticed the poll HYUFD quotes is from last April, he really does not do himself any favours
Early April 2020, wasn't it? Weren't the UK figures for the Conservatives 50%+ at that point? Six months ago, but it might as well have been the Roman Empire for its current relevance.
Last one was mid September and Labour were 5 points ahead.
Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".
My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.
I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.
The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.
I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.
But the kids of the people in the scenario you describe aren't eligible for free school meals, are they?
Bernard Jenkin said she needs a holiday. No shortage of suggestions so far
I’d be very tempted were I Labour to make it clear to her that when they get into government she will be sacked from any public role and will be spending a lot of time answering questions in the inquiry into the running of PHE, Test’n’Trace and all the contracts awarded during her time in charge.
I see all those supposed qualms about governments behaving vindictively have evaporated then...
An employer has a right to sack staff subject to the laws that apply. A government has the right - and in this case the duty - to carry out a public inquiry into one of the biggest disasters this country has faced. The circumstances of her appointment are far from transparent as are the contracts that have been awarded. A proper inquiry into all these matters is entirely justified to ensure that any monies spent improperly are recovered for the taxpayer, any other improper behaviour is properly punished and lessons are learnt.
None of this is vindictive. Nor is it incompatible with the rule of law.
What is unacceptable is government appointing cronies without any sort of proper process and trying to make it difficult for them to be made properly accountable to taxpayers.
You want her threatened with the sack in advance of the evidence, then sacked, then the evidence to be inquired into anyway not in the interests of the attainment of justice, but in terrorem and as an additional punishment. I am genuinely surprised that a member of the English Bar, as I believe you are, should have posted that.
See latest comment.
A public inquiry into a public health disaster, in which the head of a key agency has played an important role, does not amount to terrorising anyone.
Accountability and scrutiny are essential in a well-functioning democracy. It is £12 billion of our money which is being spent. People are being appointed to very senior roles without any sort of open, transparent or proper recruitment process. This is apparently acceptable.
Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".
My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.
I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.
The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.
I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.
Surely these people now on 2.9k from 4 are saving a fortune by never going out?
Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves and that was the most generous scenario. Make that a lower income couple who had income of just £1800 each beforehand, they were on £1440 under the 80% system, now on just £1200 so post tax they've gone from £3k to just £2.2k as a household.
They've done nothing wrong, they've followed the rules and they're getting shat on by a chancellor who doesn't know how the other half live and has no contact with them. All he can see are numbers on a spreadsheet and it's wrong.
Bernard Jenkin said she needs a holiday. No shortage of suggestions so far
I’d be very tempted were I Labour to make it clear to her that when they get into government she will be sacked from any public role and will be spending a lot of time answering questions in the inquiry into the running of PHE, Test’n’Trace and all the contracts awarded during her time in charge.
I see all those supposed qualms about governments behaving vindictively have evaporated then...
An employer has a right to sack staff subject to the laws that apply. A government has the right - and in this case the duty - to carry out a public inquiry into one of the biggest disasters this country has faced. The circumstances of her appointment are far from transparent as are the contracts that have been awarded. A proper inquiry into all these matters is entirely justified to ensure that any monies spent improperly are recovered for the taxpayer, any other improper behaviour is properly punished and lessons are learnt.
None of this is vindictive. Nor is it incompatible with the rule of law.
What is unacceptable is government appointing cronies without any sort of proper process and trying to make it difficult for them to be made properly accountable to taxpayers.
You want her threatened with the sack in advance of the evidence, then sacked, then the evidence to be inquired into anyway not in the interests of the attainment of justice, but in terrorem and as an additional punishment. I am genuinely surprised that a member of the English Bar, as I believe you are, should have posted that.
See latest comment.
A public inquiry into a public health disaster, in which the head of a key agency has played an important role, does not amount to terrorising anyone.
Accountability and scrutiny are essential in a well-functioning democracy. It is £12 billion of our money which is being spent. People are being appointed to very senior roles without any sort of open, transparent or proper recruitment process. This is apparently acceptable.
But steps to inquire into this are not.
‘Tis a funny old world.
Saying she would be sacked without due process is quite something though.
Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".
My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.
I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.
The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.
I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.
But the kids of the people in the scenario you describe aren't eligible for free school meals, are they?
I think they would be at their current income and it's the most generous scenario of a middle to higher income couple of £60k pre-tax household income.
Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.
If you got 30 per cent of them to vote for you, then you'd win the election.
There is a vast untapped group of voters in the WA elections, that is my only point.
Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.
The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.
Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.
Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).
Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables
Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats
Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
Paging HYUFD.
Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
I thought that was the latest poll as well
*No idea about HYUFD latest poll showing a large conservative lead
*Just noticed the poll HYUFD quotes is from last April, he really does not do himself any favours
HYUFD is something a little bit naughty when it comes to quoting opinion polls. I do not think it acceptable to ignore the most recent polls if they don't fit one's agenda. Likewise his use of subsamples, which I thought was the cardinal sin of opinion polling.
Well virtually everyone on here ignores Trafalgar despite the fact they were the only pollster to have Trump winning the EC in 2016 as it does not suit their agenda so what.
If you wish to believe Drakeford will win a Labour landslide next year that is up to you, the voters will likely prove you wrong come next May and the movement in Wales is to the Tories
Trafalgar is not a pollster.
If the last opinion poll tells me Labour are ahead of the Conservatives that is the one I base my facts on until the next one that might say otherwise. 34% is not going to give anyone a landslide.
You are a clever guy and your input on here is taken seriously by many people , not least myself. I take my hat off to you calling the 2019 election as early as you did.
Using fake pollsters and quoting out of date polling does you no favours. You are better than that!
You have no evidence Trafalgar are not a pollster other than disbelief in their results, they were right going against the herd in 2016 and I have no reason to believe they will not be right this time too so will continue to mention them, this article sets out clearly their methods
Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".
My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.
I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.
The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.
I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.
Surely these people now on 2.9k from 4 are saving a fortune by never going out?
Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves and that was the most generous scenario. Make that a lower income couple who had income of just £1800 each beforehand, they were on £1440 under the 80% system, now on just £1200 so post tax they've gone from £3k to just £2.2k as a household.
They've done nothing wrong, they've followed the rules and they're getting shat on by a chancellor who doesn't know how the other half live and has no contact with them. All he can see are numbers on a spreadsheet and it's wrong.
"Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves... "
Obviously, that's what the £2900 goes on. Times are hard, this is a nightmare we can barely have made up. I dont see the govt paying people 2/3rds pf their wages to stay at home as that insufferable really.
Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.
It's not Boris they are voting for in the Assembly
Apart from one North Wales seat the rest are conservative held and the Drakeford supermarket error and getting English police to report Welsh drivers to the Welsh police for prosecution has gone down like a lead balloon
To be fair to Drakeford nobody is responsible for what their family members do unless they actively assisted them which was clearly not the case here
I think parents do bear some responsibility for how their children turn out.
Not wholly, but certainly in part.
I don't think that is necessarily always true either, some children with loving parents turn out to be shits as adults, some people from broken homes turn out to be model citizens.
Plus in this case the son in question was autistic with a low iq, not that that excuses the crime he was convicted of
Bernard Jenkin said she needs a holiday. No shortage of suggestions so far
I’d be very tempted were I Labour to make it clear to her that when they get into government she will be sacked from any public role and will be spending a lot of time answering questions in the inquiry into the running of PHE, Test’n’Trace and all the contracts awarded during her time in charge.
I see all those supposed qualms about governments behaving vindictively have evaporated then...
An employer has a right to sack staff subject to the laws that apply. A government has the right - and in this case the duty - to carry out a public inquiry into one of the biggest disasters this country has faced. The circumstances of her appointment are far from transparent as are the contracts that have been awarded. A proper inquiry into all these matters is entirely justified to ensure that any monies spent improperly are recovered for the taxpayer, any other improper behaviour is properly punished and lessons are learnt.
None of this is vindictive. Nor is it incompatible with the rule of law.
What is unacceptable is government appointing cronies without any sort of proper process and trying to make it difficult for them to be made properly accountable to taxpayers.
You want her threatened with the sack in advance of the evidence, then sacked, then the evidence to be inquired into anyway not in the interests of the attainment of justice, but in terrorem and as an additional punishment. I am genuinely surprised that a member of the English Bar, as I believe you are, should have posted that.
See latest comment.
A public inquiry into a public health disaster, in which the head of a key agency has played an important role, does not amount to terrorising anyone.
Accountability and scrutiny are essential in a well-functioning democracy. It is £12 billion of our money which is being spent. People are being appointed to very senior roles without any sort of open, transparent or proper recruitment process. This is apparently acceptable.
But steps to inquire into this are not.
‘Tis a funny old world.
Saying she would be sacked without due process is quite something though.
The due process has already happened.
Or do you genuinely think our track and trace is world beating, or even vaguely competent.
Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.
If you got 30 per cent of them to vote for you, then you'd win the election.
There is a vast untapped group of voters in the WA elections, that is my only point.
Why would they suddenly turnout next year though, when turnout in elections other than General Elections is perennially low?
Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".
My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.
I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.
The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.
I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.
Surely these people now on 2.9k from 4 are saving a fortune by never going out?
Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves and that was the most generous scenario. Make that a lower income couple who had income of just £1800 each beforehand, they were on £1440 under the 80% system, now on just £1200 so post tax they've gone from £3k to just £2.2k as a household.
They've done nothing wrong, they've followed the rules and they're getting shat on by a chancellor who doesn't know how the other half live and has no contact with them. All he can see are numbers on a spreadsheet and it's wrong.
"Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves... "
Obviously, that's what the £2900 goes on. Times are hard, this is a nightmare we can barely have made up. I dont see the govt paying people 2/3rds pf their wages to stay at home as that insufferable really.
And lower income families? What do they do? Single income families? They just have to deal with it right?
The government has put rules in place that makes it impossible for these people to earn a living. They have done nothing wrong.
Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".
My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.
I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.
The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.
I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.
Surely these people now on 2.9k from 4 are saving a fortune by never going out?
Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves and that was the most generous scenario. Make that a lower income couple who had income of just £1800 each beforehand, they were on £1440 under the 80% system, now on just £1200 so post tax they've gone from £3k to just £2.2k as a household.
They've done nothing wrong, they've followed the rules and they're getting shat on by a chancellor who doesn't know how the other half live and has no contact with them. All he can see are numbers on a spreadsheet and it's wrong.
"Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves... "
Obviously, that's what the £2900 goes on. Times are hard, this is a nightmare we can barely have made up. I dont see the govt paying people 2/3rds pf their wages to stay at home as that insufferable really.
And lower income families? What do they do? Single income families? They just have to deal with it right?
The government has put rules in place that makes it impossible for these people to earn a living. They have done nothing wrong.
You picked the numbers you thought illustrated the unfairness, not me!
Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.
The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.
Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.
Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).
Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables
Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats
Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
Paging HYUFD.
Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
I thought that was the latest poll as well
*No idea about HYUFD latest poll showing a large conservative lead
*Just noticed the poll HYUFD quotes is from last April, he really does not do himself any favours
HYUFD is something a little bit naughty when it comes to quoting opinion polls. I do not think it acceptable to ignore the most recent polls if they don't fit one's agenda. Likewise his use of subsamples, which I thought was the cardinal sin of opinion polling.
Well virtually everyone on here ignores Trafalgar despite the fact they were the only pollster to have Trump winning the EC in 2016 as it does not suit their agenda so what.
If you wish to believe Drakeford will win a Labour landslide next year that is up to you, the voters will likely prove you wrong come next May and the movement in Wales is to the Tories
Trafalgar is not a pollster.
If the last opinion poll tells me Labour are ahead of the Conservatives that is the one I base my facts on until the next one that might say otherwise. 34% is not going to give anyone a landslide.
You are a clever guy and your input on here is taken seriously by many people , not least myself. I take my hat off to you calling the 2019 election as early as you did.
Using fake pollsters and quoting out of date polling does you no favours. You are better than that!
You have no evidence Trafalgar are not a pollster other than disbelief in their results, they were right going against the herd in 2016 and I have no reason to believe they will not be right this time too so will continue to mention them, this article sets out clearly their methods
Robert spoke to the guy and wrote a dissertation on the call. He tried to give a balanced view but still came to the conclusion that the guy at best someone who did not adhere to the standards terms of reference used by legitimate pollsters. Reading between the lines I assume he concluded the guy was more sinister than that (my interpretation).
Luntz is a Trump hack. Asking Linz for a balanced view on Election 2020 is like asking Nigel Farage for a balanced view on Brexit. Even if he wanted to, he couldn't.
Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".
My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.
I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.
The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.
I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.
Surely these people now on 2.9k from 4 are saving a fortune by never going out?
Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves and that was the most generous scenario. Make that a lower income couple who had income of just £1800 each beforehand, they were on £1440 under the 80% system, now on just £1200 so post tax they've gone from £3k to just £2.2k as a household.
They've done nothing wrong, they've followed the rules and they're getting shat on by a chancellor who doesn't know how the other half live and has no contact with them. All he can see are numbers on a spreadsheet and it's wrong.
To be fair the chancellor will have met many people in Richmond North Yorkshire living on the amounts you have given.
1) What do you think the methodological changes applied since 2016 will have done to the relative projections of the Biden vs Clinton votes 2) Some of the "surprise" states that Trump won in 2016 were barely polled throughout the campaign because it was assumed that Clinton had them in the bag. So were not very reliable. That is not the case this time 3) What equivalent event to the Comey decision to reopen the Clinton email investigation do you anticipate impacting negatively on the Biden campaign in the next week?
Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.
If you got 30 per cent of them to vote for you, then you'd win the election.
There is a vast untapped group of voters in the WA elections, that is my only point.
Why would they suddenly turnout next year though, when turnout in elections other than General Elections is perennially low?
Normally they wouldn't but make no mistake this has turned Drakeford from 'someone in Cardiff' to someone who has angered a lot of people and become infamous overnight with this debacle
This has cut through in Wales and Drakeford is in the firing line
Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".
My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.
I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.
The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.
I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.
Surely these people now on 2.9k from 4 are saving a fortune by never going out?
Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves and that was the most generous scenario. Make that a lower income couple who had income of just £1800 each beforehand, they were on £1440 under the 80% system, now on just £1200 so post tax they've gone from £3k to just £2.2k as a household.
They've done nothing wrong, they've followed the rules and they're getting shat on by a chancellor who doesn't know how the other half live and has no contact with them. All he can see are numbers on a spreadsheet and it's wrong.
"Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves... "
Obviously, that's what the £2900 goes on. Times are hard, this is a nightmare we can barely have made up. I dont see the govt paying people 2/3rds pf their wages to stay at home as that insufferable really.
And lower income families? What do they do? Single income families? They just have to deal with it right?
The government has put rules in place that makes it impossible for these people to earn a living. They have done nothing wrong.
You picked the numbers you thought illustrated the unfairness, not me!
I picked the most generous situation, but change it to £35k household income which is around the average outside of London. Those people are going from £2.7k per month to just £1.9k per month. It's going to cause serious hardship for families who have already faced serious hardship. That's without taking into account he stupid rules over self employed only getting 50% for having the temerity to be self employed.
Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.
It's not Boris they are voting for in the Assembly
Apart from one North Wales seat the rest are conservative held and the Drakeford supermarket error and getting English police to report Welsh drivers to the Welsh police for prosecution has gone down like a lead balloon
We know Johnson is a major drag on the Conservative vote in Scotland.
Some polling out for the US today. USC has Biden on +10, +12, +10.
Trafalgar has 3 new polls out, which I suspect will be discussed here, show: FL Trump +2 AZ Trump +3 MI Trump +2 So I suspect not a surprise to anyone.
A single poll for SD Trump +11
Oh and since I posted some high Texas polling for Biden. University of Texas at Tyler. Biden +3
I personally am putting that one in with Trafalgar as outlier.
Trafalgar of course being the outlier that was right in being the only pollster to have Trump ahead in PA and Michigan in 2016, they have Biden ahead in PA now and more narrowly in Wisconsin and Trump narrowly ahead in Michigan so are still showing a small swing to Biden but not enough of a swing to win the EC which is plausible.
Survey Monkey in another Texas poll has Trump up by 4%, if Biden wins a landslide he could win Texas but only in that scenario
Been round the block with Trafalgar conversion/debate before so will leave it there.
Survey monkey is interesting to see and play with their interactive takes. However their field work is over 1 month so I tend to ignore their results, just as USC is useful to confirm a trend for me, but not a current snap shot poll.
1) What do you think the methodological changes applied since 2016 will have done to the relative projections of the Biden vs Clinton votes 2) Some of the "surprise" states that Trump won in 2016 were barely polled throughout the campaign because it was assumed that Clinton had them in the bag. So were not very reliable. That is not the case this time 3) What equivalent event to the Comey decision to reopen the Clinton email investigation do you anticipate impacting negatively on the Biden campaign in the next week?
1) Little in terms of shy Trump voters 2) There were plenty of Michigan and Pennsylvania polls in 2016, all bar Trafalgar was wrong, there were still 12 polls of Wisconsin alone in October and November 2016, every single one was wrong and had Hillary ahead. Hillary's average poll lead in Wisconsin on eve of poll was 6.5%, Trump won Wisconsin on election day by 0.7%. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html 3) I doubt that made much real difference, Hillary's average poll lead in Wisconsin for example actually had increased on eve of poll from where it was in late October.
Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.
It's not Boris they are voting for in the Assembly
Apart from one North Wales seat the rest are conservative held and the Drakeford supermarket error and getting English police to report Welsh drivers to the Welsh police for prosecution has gone down like a lead balloon
We know Johnson is a major drag on the Conservative vote in Scotland.
Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".
My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.
I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.
The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.
I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.
Surely these people now on 2.9k from 4 are saving a fortune by never going out?
Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves and that was the most generous scenario. Make that a lower income couple who had income of just £1800 each beforehand, they were on £1440 under the 80% system, now on just £1200 so post tax they've gone from £3k to just £2.2k as a household.
They've done nothing wrong, they've followed the rules and they're getting shat on by a chancellor who doesn't know how the other half live and has no contact with them. All he can see are numbers on a spreadsheet and it's wrong.
"Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves... "
Obviously, that's what the £2900 goes on. Times are hard, this is a nightmare we can barely have made up. I dont see the govt paying people 2/3rds pf their wages to stay at home as that insufferable really.
And lower income families? What do they do? Single income families? They just have to deal with it right?
The government has put rules in place that makes it impossible for these people to earn a living. They have done nothing wrong.
You picked the numbers you thought illustrated the unfairness, not me!
I picked the most generous situation, but change it to £35k household income which is around the average outside of London. Those people are going from £2.7k per month to just £1.9k per month. It's going to cause serious hardship for families who have already faced serious hardship. That's without taking into account he stupid rules over self employed only getting 50% for having the temerity to be self employed.
You really really don't understand this tax business do you, even though I have explained it several times. You don't get to just pay just Corporation Tax if you set up a company. You also pay Income Tax when you pay the money from the company to yourself
You pay 19% Corporation Tax THEN when you pay it from your company to yourself you pay Income Tax on it.
So you pay 19% AND 45%.
OK it isn't quite as simple as that because you make savings on NI, Dividend band of £2000 and more generous allowable expenses and flexibility on when you pay yourself and therefore on when you pay tax BUT it isn't
19% or 45%. It really isn't.
I don't know why you think this?
You pay both unless you leave the money in the company forever!>
I now know why you believe it. You have read an ITV article that is bollocks. How about checking out the tax rules or listening to someone who have run a limited company for 30 years and paid both Corporation Tax and Income Tax. Yes I paid both on the same income (albeit I made savings elsewhere which more or less cancelled out the extra tax and I had much more flexibility in running my business rather than being a sole trader.)
Well fair enough I can believe the ITV article to be bollocks. But I'm pretty sure the rates are different to pay if you take a dividend rather than 45% PAYE rate, so I'm not sure of your figures either.
It does say HMRC are investigating though, so presumably they think there is something in it too, probably some loophole you've not thought of.
If the dividend rate + savings on NI are less than 45% then that could save tax.
I'm sure there's some more outrageous loopholes, maybe something like a footballer could keep the money in their company until they retire and spend 6 months in a tax haven and pay themselves tax free.
Or the company never makes a profit and pays less corporation tax (I assume that is how Amazon avoid paying anything here).
Corporation Tax 19%
Top income tax rate 45%
Top dividend tax rate 38.1% and dividends are not deductible for Corporation Tax unlike a salary.
So by going thru a company you pay 19% on your profits and then 45% or 38.1% on the top band of what you receive (less on the lower bands obviously), but no NI by either the company nor the individual if no salary paid.
If paid as salary by the club it would be top rate of 45% on most of the salary (assuming whopping salary) plus after the initial NI most of the NI paid on the higher earnings would be at 2%
There is so much I could write. I am trying to keep it simple. eek is doing a far better job than me.
As eek mentioned the employer NI is another consideration to take into account.
When it comes to tax at the moment it's always about Employers NI.
Heck I trademarked a phase this month that employment agencies can use when advertising rates so they can offer a clear explanation of where the money goes come April and the next set of IR35 changes arrive.
Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".
My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.
I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.
The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.
I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.
Surely these people now on 2.9k from 4 are saving a fortune by never going out?
Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves and that was the most generous scenario. Make that a lower income couple who had income of just £1800 each beforehand, they were on £1440 under the 80% system, now on just £1200 so post tax they've gone from £3k to just £2.2k as a household.
They've done nothing wrong, they've followed the rules and they're getting shat on by a chancellor who doesn't know how the other half live and has no contact with them. All he can see are numbers on a spreadsheet and it's wrong.
"Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves... "
Obviously, that's what the £2900 goes on. Times are hard, this is a nightmare we can barely have made up. I dont see the govt paying people 2/3rds pf their wages to stay at home as that insufferable really.
I agree in the circumstances the government in my opinion has got this about right.
On the 2016 comparisons, if we'd had 2020-style early/mail voting in 2016 so Hillary banked a lot of votes before the Comey letter dropped, do we reckon she'd still have lost?
Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.
The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.
Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.
Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).
Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables
Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats
Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
Paging HYUFD.
Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
I thought that was the latest poll as well
*No idea about HYUFD latest poll showing a large conservative lead
*Just noticed the poll HYUFD quotes is from last April, he really does not do himself any favours
HYUFD is something a little bit naughty when it comes to quoting opinion polls. I do not think it acceptable to ignore the most recent polls if they don't fit one's agenda. Likewise his use of subsamples, which I thought was the cardinal sin of opinion polling.
Well virtually everyone on here ignores Trafalgar despite the fact they were the only pollster to have Trump winning the EC in 2016 as it does not suit their agenda so what.
If you wish to believe Drakeford will win a Labour landslide next year that is up to you, the voters will likely prove you wrong come next May and the movement in Wales is to the Tories
Trafalgar is not a pollster.
If the last opinion poll tells me Labour are ahead of the Conservatives that is the one I base my facts on until the next one that might say otherwise. 34% is not going to give anyone a landslide.
You are a clever guy and your input on here is taken seriously by many people , not least myself. I take my hat off to you calling the 2019 election as early as you did.
Using fake pollsters and quoting out of date polling does you no favours. You are better than that!
You have no evidence Trafalgar are not a pollster
Yes we do. We have presented it on this here board. You are ignoring it.
Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.
It's not Boris they are voting for in the Assembly
Apart from one North Wales seat the rest are conservative held and the Drakeford supermarket error and getting English police to report Welsh drivers to the Welsh police for prosecution has gone down like a lead balloon
We know Johnson is a major drag on the Conservative vote in Scotland.
Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.
It's not Boris they are voting for in the Assembly
Apart from one North Wales seat the rest are conservative held and the Drakeford supermarket error and getting English police to report Welsh drivers to the Welsh police for prosecution has gone down like a lead balloon
We know Johnson is a major drag on the Conservative vote in Scotland.
Having brunch at my parents this morning before they fuck off to Crete for the winter. My dad is pure working class Tory has voted Tory ever since he arrived from Africa and was old enough to vote. Very much on the government's side over "irresponsible parents".
My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.
I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.
The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.
I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.
Surely these people now on 2.9k from 4 are saving a fortune by never going out?
Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves and that was the most generous scenario. Make that a lower income couple who had income of just £1800 each beforehand, they were on £1440 under the 80% system, now on just £1200 so post tax they've gone from £3k to just £2.2k as a household.
They've done nothing wrong, they've followed the rules and they're getting shat on by a chancellor who doesn't know how the other half live and has no contact with them. All he can see are numbers on a spreadsheet and it's wrong.
"Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves... "
Obviously, that's what the £2900 goes on. Times are hard, this is a nightmare we can barely have made up. I dont see the govt paying people 2/3rds pf their wages to stay at home as that insufferable really.
And lower income families? What do they do? Single income families? They just have to deal with it right?
The government has put rules in place that makes it impossible for these people to earn a living. They have done nothing wrong.
You picked the numbers you thought illustrated the unfairness, not me!
I picked the most generous situation, but change it to £35k household income which is around the average outside of London. Those people are going from £2.7k per month to just £1.9k per month. It's going to cause serious hardship for families who have already faced serious hardship. That's without taking into account he stupid rules over self employed only getting 50% for having the temerity to be self employed.
You used to get £80 a week jobseekers allowance if you couldn't work, £1.9k is pretty generous.
£1.9k per month without working isn't that much different to £2.7k if you take into account work expenses and the extra time you have to plan your finances. Not to mention that you don't actually have to work to get the money!
Lockdowns are popular. It is premature to assume that he will have been damaged in the polls by last week.
Lockdowns are very popular with the highly affluent, who largely suffer no consequences.
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
Are those non-voters going to turn out for Johnsons Tories though? It seems implausible.
If you got 30 per cent of them to vote for you, then you'd win the election.
There is a vast untapped group of voters in the WA elections, that is my only point.
Why would they suddenly turnout next year though, when turnout in elections other than General Elections is perennially low?
Gosh, it is hard work.
Voters turn out in an election when they have been given a reason to vote.
That could be because they have seen an inspiring politician (but this is Wales and they are all pretty crap).
Or it could be because someone has royally pissed them off
You really really don't understand this tax business do you, even though I have explained it several times. You don't get to just pay just Corporation Tax if you set up a company. You also pay Income Tax when you pay the money from the company to yourself
You pay 19% Corporation Tax THEN when you pay it from your company to yourself you pay Income Tax on it.
So you pay 19% AND 45%.
OK it isn't quite as simple as that because you make savings on NI, Dividend band of £2000 and more generous allowable expenses and flexibility on when you pay yourself and therefore on when you pay tax BUT it isn't
19% or 45%. It really isn't.
I don't know why you think this?
You pay both unless you leave the money in the company forever!>
I now know why you believe it. You have read an ITV article that is bollocks. How about checking out the tax rules or listening to someone who have run a limited company for 30 years and paid both Corporation Tax and Income Tax. Yes I paid both on the same income (albeit I made savings elsewhere which more or less cancelled out the extra tax and I had much more flexibility in running my business rather than being a sole trader.)
Well fair enough I can believe the ITV article to be bollocks. But I'm pretty sure the rates are different to pay if you take a dividend rather than 45% PAYE rate, so I'm not sure of your figures either.
It does say HMRC are investigating though, so presumably they think there is something in it too, probably some loophole you've not thought of.
If the dividend rate + savings on NI are less than 45% then that could save tax.
I'm sure there's some more outrageous loopholes, maybe something like a footballer could keep the money in their company until they retire and spend 6 months in a tax haven and pay themselves tax free.
Or the company never makes a profit and pays less corporation tax (I assume that is how Amazon avoid paying anything here).
Corporation Tax 19%
Top income tax rate 45%
Top dividend tax rate 38.1% and dividends are not deductible for Corporation Tax unlike a salary.
So by going thru a company you pay 19% on your profits and then 45% or 38.1% on the top band of what you receive (less on the lower bands obviously), but no NI by either the company nor the individual if no salary paid.
If paid as salary by the club it would be top rate of 45% on most of the salary (assuming whopping salary) plus after the initial NI most of the NI paid on the higher earnings would be at 2%
There is so much I could write. I am trying to keep it simple. eek is doing a far better job than me.
As eek mentioned the employer NI is another consideration to take into account.
Fair enough, but I still don't understand why they bother creating these companies at all if they end up losing money on them.
There are lots of swings and roundabouts so you have to look at the individual circumstances, but there are lots of other reasons to set up a company. As I said I did because it made my life a lot easier and from a tax perspective I wasn't worse off, but equally I didn't profit from it.
Mark Drakeford used to be a Welsh nationalist who thought trashing English only road signs was a fantastic thing to be doing'.
The atheist, republican who was Corbyn's favoured candidate to succeed Carwyn Jones later decided that class was more important than nationality, and became a socialist and joined the Labour Party.
Oh no! You are now quoting the Daily Mail. I think I preferred it when you quoted more reliable sources like Trafalgar!
It is true though, at the moment while Starmer now leads UK Labour, Corbyn Labour is making a last stand in Wales under the hapless Drakeford, who supported Corbyn for the leadership even in 2015.
Therefore I think the Tories might do better in Wales next year in the Assembly elections than they do in England in the local elections (and certainly better than in London in the Mayoral and Assembly elections).
Indeed the Tories might find they even get a higher voteshare in Wales in the Assembly elections than they do both in England in the local elections and Scotland in the Scottish Parliament elections, that was certainly what Opinium was suggesting last night
Ever the optimist, young HY. One major problem that you face is that the historic Conservative Party has been changed into the "Cronyism and Corruption Party". You seem to think that you are the only alternative to an incoherent Labour Party. There are other offers available, varying from one part of the country to another, as you will discover in the not too distant future.
Opinium's latest voting intention figures today and details from the data tables
Using sub samples like this is on par with your Trafalgar mutterings. This bears no relationship to the last all Wales ITV poll. Maybe the next one will tell a different story.
All Wales polls from April had an even bigger Tory lead and one had the Tories on most Assembly seats
Are you sure? I thought the last poll was less favourable to the Tories. Something came out August time
Paging HYUFD.
Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
I thought that was the latest poll as well
*No idea about HYUFD latest poll showing a large conservative lead
*Just noticed the poll HYUFD quotes is from last April, he really does not do himself any favours
Early April 2020, wasn't it? Weren't the UK figures for the Conservatives 50%+ at that point? Six months ago, but it might as well have been the Roman Empire for its current relevance.
I was actually referring to today's Opinium which has figures with the Tories ahead in Wales if you had bothered to read the full thread you would have seen I was only using the April poll to back up it is possible for the Tories to lead in Wales
But that poll taken at that time is only really evidence for how strange things were in late March and early April. It's a curio, albeit a fascinating one.
Comments
Top income tax rate 45%
Top dividend tax rate 38.1% and dividends are not deductible for Corporation Tax unlike a salary.
So by going thru a company you pay 19% on your profits and then 45% or 38.1% on the top band of what you receive (less on the lower bands obviously), but no NI by either the company nor the individual if no salary paid.
If paid as salary by the club it would be top rate of 45% on most of the salary (assuming whopping salary) plus after the initial NI most of the NI paid on the higher earnings would be at 2%
There is so much I could write. I am trying to keep it simple. eek is doing a far better job than me.
As eek mentioned the employer NI is another consideration to take into account.
Poll from mid September. Lab 34% Con 29% down 2. Puts Lab into more of a ninority- would need help from others.
University of Texas at Tyler.
Biden +3
I personally am putting that one in with Trafalgar as outlier.
For as long as that continues, the Welsh First Minister will continue to be Labour.
Unless we want to end up like the US - where *asking a question* that embarrasses a politician on camera often leads to an IRS audit and/or every over vaguely applicable agency coming after you.
".... were I Labour" [I would] "make it clear to her that when they get into government she will be sacked from any public role ..."
Out of interest, can you really do that? Just sack someone without any due process.
I think Ed Balls tried it in the House of Commons ... didn't we all end up paying damages?
(I'd be surprised if Dido is openly corrupt, as opposed to grossly incompetent. But the latter is not a hindrance to public office.)
It's only there trying to fool the public
But when it comes down to fooling you
Now, honey, that's quite a different subject
But don't let my glad expression
Give you the wrong impression
Really I'm sad, Oh I'm sadder than sad
You're gone, and I'm hurtin' so bad
Like a clown, I pretend to be glad
Now there's some sad things known to man
But ain't too much sadder than the Tiers of a clown, When there's no one around...
Now Drakeford might still be able to stay FM even if the Tories win most Assembly seats with Plaid and LD support but it would be a humiliation for Welsh Labour no doubt
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1320331271135002624
2500 dead from less than 2 million.
Heck I trademarked a phase this month that employment agencies can use when advertising rates so they can offer a clear explanation of where the money goes come April and the next set of IR35 changes arrive.
What all the various restrictions, around the world, share is this - they are attempts to reduce R. On *average*.
So every single regulation, in every single country, has exceptions that make it seem stupid. But if enough people follow the rules/regulations, then *on average* the transmission goes down.
*No idea about HYUFD latest poll showing a large conservative lead
*Just noticed the poll HYUFD quotes is from last April, he really does not do himself any favours
Most Footballers nowadays have far more professional advice than they used to get - it's still not as good as it could be but the days when the advice was the same as an oil worker's bookkeeper has thankfully disappeared
Survey Monkey in another Texas poll has Trump up by 4%, if Biden wins a landslide he could win Texas but only in that scenario
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1320158108929372160?s=20
Another option is to liquidate the company and pay 10% tax as an Entrepreneur.
The very nasty and cynical suggested that it was deliberate - so that the person in question could get a nice payout. As a member of the New Upper 10,000 she deserved that.
And cases there are rising again.
https://twitter.com/KateAndrs/status/1320333585212231684?s=20
Zoom meetings for work, huge Waitrose deliveries, full income, large roomy quiet houses, big gardens with trees.
That is a tiny fraction of the Welsh electorate, (though admittedly about 100 per cent of pb.com).
55 per cent of the Welsh electorate do not vote in the Assembly elections. Drakeford needs to keep it that way so Labour can continue their merry, corrupt and incompetent rule in Wales.
What Drakeford does not want to do is something so stupid it enrages that 55 per cent who Do Not Vote.
It doesn't need more than 10 per cent of the Do Not Voters heading into the polls, and Drakeford's slender poll lead has vanished.
If you wish to believe Drakeford will win a Labour landslide next year that is up to you, the voters will likely prove you wrong come next May and the movement in Wales is to the Tories.
There is also nothing wrong with using subsamples as long as you point out they are from a UK wide poll
And finding out that they’re still not yet at herd immunity with 200+ hospitalisations and 40+ deaths per day still going.
It looks to me like the details are being discussed:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54681400
It does seem that claims of herd immunity in Manaus are premature. Cases are rising again there.
My sister, brother in-law, wife and I all disagreed with him and we proved that minds can be changed in real life.
I think part of the problem we have is that the government and ministers are so far removed from these kinds of conversations that they just don't have any kind of clue what people in the country are going through. Someone like Rishi probably doesn't have any contact with anyone who is facing the 67% furlough and will never meet anyone who is facing that situation.
The idea that a couple who used to earn £2500 per month each beforehand getting £2000 under the current scheme was fair to most people, now they face a drop down to £1675 each. So what was £4k per month after tax has become £2.9k, that's a huge, huge loss of household income. What the government is doing is simply wrong. People are facing the abyss because the chancellor only sees numbers on a spreadsheet that need balancing, lots of families are going to face ruin over the next few months due to his decision to cut the furlough to 67% and people are going to be left in poverty for a very long time despite doing nothing wrong and playing by the rules their whole lives.
I just wish there was a way to get the government to see what they are doing is wrong, ministers are all so remote from the people tbh claim to serve. It's extremely dispiriting.
UK Labour 40% Tories 38% LDs 6%
England Labour 44% Tories 39% LDs 6%
Scotland SNP 48% Tories 27% Labour 20% LDs 1%
Wales Tories 40% Labour 29% Plaid 19% LDs 7%
https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-22nd-october-2020/
If the last opinion poll tells me Labour are ahead of the Conservatives that is the one I base my facts on until the next one that might say otherwise. 34% is not going to give anyone a landslide.
You are a clever guy and your input on here is taken seriously by many people , not least myself. I take my hat off to you calling the 2019 election as early as you did.
Using fake pollsters and quoting out of date polling does you no favours. You are better than that!
Labour could certainly take the view that they do not want a Conservative peer appointed to senior NHS roles in less than transparent circumstances in charge of something as important to them as the NHS. And make it clear to Harding privately that if she thinks she can get herself entrenched into some cushy little number because of her contacts she might want to think again because the political wind changes.
Of course if she were competent at her job her being a Tory and her friendships would matter less. Or not at all.
The government is behaving like an 18th century government - handing out contracts and sinecure to its friends. There is a “Heads I win, Tails You Lose” approach to some of its behaviour. The Opposition should make it clear that they will not tolerate this, any advantages these people are getting now will be time limited and there will be the most careful scrutiny of the monies and contracts disbursed in the meanwhile.
I certainly do not think they should behave like Balls did over Sharon Shoosmith. But there are plenty of lawful ways of ensuring changes in senior personnel.
Thatcher had to take the flak for her awful son.
The parents of the Great Wokingham Pizza Abuser must take the flak for their awful son.
Drakeford should take the flak for his paedophile rapist son.
Six months ago, but it might as well have been the Roman Empire for its current relevance.
A public inquiry into a public health disaster, in which the head of a key agency has played an important role, does not amount to terrorising anyone.
Accountability and scrutiny are essential in a well-functioning democracy. It is £12 billion of our money which is being spent. People are being appointed to very senior roles without any sort of open, transparent or proper recruitment process. This is apparently acceptable.
But steps to inquire into this are not.
‘Tis a funny old world.
They've done nothing wrong, they've followed the rules and they're getting shat on by a chancellor who doesn't know how the other half live and has no contact with them. All he can see are numbers on a spreadsheet and it's wrong.
Not wholly, but certainly in part.
There is a vast untapped group of voters in the WA elections, that is my only point.
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1320011426103095296?s=20.
Thankyou for your other comments
Obviously, that's what the £2900 goes on. Times are hard, this is a nightmare we can barely have made up. I dont see the govt paying people 2/3rds pf their wages to stay at home as that insufferable really.
Apart from one North Wales seat the rest are conservative held and the Drakeford supermarket error and getting English police to report Welsh drivers to the Welsh police for prosecution has gone down like a lead balloon
Plus in this case the son in question was autistic with a low iq, not that that excuses the crime he was convicted of
Or do you genuinely think our track and trace is world beating, or even vaguely competent.
The government has put rules in place that makes it impossible for these people to earn a living. They have done nothing wrong.
Luntz is a Trump hack. Asking Linz for a balanced view on Election 2020 is like asking Nigel Farage for a balanced view on Brexit. Even if he wanted to, he couldn't.
2) Some of the "surprise" states that Trump won in 2016 were barely polled throughout the campaign because it was assumed that Clinton had them in the bag. So were not very reliable. That is not the case this time
3) What equivalent event to the Comey decision to reopen the Clinton email investigation do you anticipate impacting negatively on the Biden campaign in the next week?
This has cut through in Wales and Drakeford is in the firing line
What is his popularity amongst the Welsh?
So fas as I can see, he is underwater:
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2020-09-14/poll-reveals-how-much-political-leaders-are-liked-and-disliked-in-wales
Survey monkey is interesting to see and play with their interactive takes. However their field work is over 1 month so I tend to ignore their results, just as USC is useful to confirm a trend for me, but not a current snap shot poll.
2) There were plenty of Michigan and Pennsylvania polls in 2016, all bar Trafalgar was wrong, there were still 12 polls of Wisconsin alone in October and November 2016, every single one was wrong and had Hillary ahead. Hillary's average poll lead in Wisconsin on eve of poll was 6.5%, Trump won Wisconsin on election day by 0.7%.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html
3) I doubt that made much real difference, Hillary's average poll lead in Wisconsin for example actually had increased on eve of poll from where it was in late October.
Everyone else seems to though, otherwise they wouldn't be blaming politicians for the deaths
£1.9k per month without working isn't that much different to £2.7k if you take into account work expenses and the extra time you have to plan your finances. Not to mention that you don't actually have to work to get the money!
Voters turn out in an election when they have been given a reason to vote.
That could be because they have seen an inspiring politician (but this is Wales and they are all pretty crap).
Or it could be because someone has royally pissed them off
Remember the ERG rarely published their research, when they did, it was often without evidence or highly partisan.