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And the Answers Are ….? The circuit breaker proposal – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 14 in General
And the Answers Are ….? The circuit breaker proposal – politicalbetting.com

Quickie poll by @YouGov finds strong support for two week "circuit breaker" lockdown pic.twitter.com/TKv8pfBYVH

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Comments

  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,646
    edited October 14
    First - unlike Boris :D
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 4,006
    Remarkable degree of consensus in that poll, especially the party and Brexit cross-tabs. Johnson is in a bind now having been so aggressively dismissive of Starmer's suggestion.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 11,316
    Let me repeat for those unaware: The North East has already been in “Tier 2” for a month. We should already have the data on its effect on case numbers.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,646
    The "Circuit Breaker" is at a best a delaying tactic. When it is over, we will still have the disease.

    It is, at best, a delay and, at worst, a complete waste of time.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,814
    Yes, lockdown for thee, not for me.

    As I said, if you polled people on whether people who test positive should isolate the result would be close to 100% in favour, the reality is that only 20% of people actually do it.

    Polling on this subject is completely useless.
  • Well we have a populist government.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 3,200

    The "Circuit Breaker" is at a best a delaying tactic. When it is over, we will still have the disease.

    It is, at best, a delay and, at worst, a complete waste of time.

    Amen
  • isamisam Posts: 34,617
    MaxPB said:

    Yes, lockdown for thee, not for me.

    As I said, if you polled people on whether people who test positive should isolate the result would be close to 100% in favour, the reality is that only 20% of people actually do it.

    Polling on this subject is completely useless.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/is-britain-really-a-nation-of-lockdown-lovers-
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,188
    Would be interesting to ask people as well how bad they think COVID rates are in comparison to March and especially in their own area. I have a feeling many people will have an incorrect assessment.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,814

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Almost 20,000 o_O. Not great when wednesday is higher than tuesday

    It's still a slowing down of the case growth rate. My eye spies an 11 day doubling time, maybe just under that, last week it was just under 9 days. We're not very far from equilibrium and the new tier system has just come into place.
    Absolutely 100% agreed. And the Freshers Flu (Covid19 edition) effect will burn out soon.
    I think the latter will need a couple of extra weeks until it starts to burn out, but even with that we are approaching equilibrium without that effect.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,904
    Bozo started following the science. Then he followed Scotland. Now he's going to follow the opposition, isn't he?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,293
    Big Picture is off.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,188

    The "Circuit Breaker" is at a best a delaying tactic. When it is over, we will still have the disease.

    It is, at best, a delay and, at worst, a complete waste of time.

    Again this morning, head of the vaccine task force said we ain't getting nought until next year, and for the plebs it is more like another year before any of the restrictions can go away.
  • Being back to normal by Christmas ain't happening is it?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 4,641

    Big Picture is off.

    New TVs aren't so expensive. Pain in the arse though to get rid of the old one.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,188

    Being back to normal by Christmas ain't happening is it?

    You are talking about Christmas 2021 right? Might be if we are lucky.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,844
    I wholeheartedly supported the first lockdown (indeed I thought it came later than it ought), as it gave us time to work out answers, and lasted long enough to get rates of infection low enough to give us more time after if was relaxed.

    We appear not to have spent that time terrifically well.

    As far as the proposed circuit breaker is concerned, other than give us a couple of weeks' pause, I don't have an answer to Cyclefree's questions.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,725

    The "Circuit Breaker" is at a best a delaying tactic. When it is over, we will still have the disease.

    It is, at best, a delay and, at worst, a complete waste of time.

    Again this morning, head of the vaccine task force said we ain't getting nought until next year, and for the plebs it is more like another year before any of the restrictions can go away.
    Do they have estimates for the timeframe for the vaccination program once it is approved? I wonder how many people they can do a day.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 4,377

    The "Circuit Breaker" is at a best a delaying tactic. When it is over, we will still have the disease.

    It is, at best, a delay and, at worst, a complete waste of time.

    You are in the middle of the ocean in a leaking ship. The captain orders the pumps to be worked twice a day, every day, to prevent the ship sinking. Is the pumping at best, a delay and, at worst, a complete waste of time, because when it is completed, you still have the leak?
  • Have we given up on testing, tracing and isolating then?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 3,200
    edited October 14
    MaxPB said:

    Yes, lockdown for thee, not for me.

    As I said, if you polled people on whether people who test positive should isolate the result would be close to 100% in favour, the reality is that only 20% of people actually do it.

    Polling on this subject is completely useless.

    If you work in the public sector, or are on a pension, the COVID impact is either zero or maybe positive because you are working from home.

    That's a massive chunk of the population.

    The impact of COVID is being felt extremely unevenly. One thing the government must do is spread the load. I wonder what that poll would look like if Sunak announced a 5% across the board cut in pension payments.

    I reckon you could turn that poll on its head, effectively.
  • eekeek Posts: 9,603

    Let me repeat for those unaware: The North East has already been in “Tier 2” for a month. We should already have the data on its effect on case numbers.

    We probably need to compare the North East with Teesside to see what the difference was. without looking I suspect there isn't much difference between how the NE has done in Tier 2 to how Teesside (which was in tier 1) has done.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,293
    100% agreed with everything Cyclefree.

    Anyone who endorses a "2 week circuit breaker" is lying to themselves or lying to us. 2 weeks will do nothing but inflict catastrophic economic damage on every business hit by it.

    A 2 month circuit break might give health benefits. A 2 week circuit break is a farce. All pain no gain.

    A soft easy option to claim to support but not a proposal anyone credible or serious could endorse.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,814

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Almost 20,000 o_O. Not great when wednesday is higher than tuesday

    It's still a slowing down of the case growth rate. My eye spies an 11 day doubling time, maybe just under that, last week it was just under 9 days. We're not very far from equilibrium and the new tier system has just come into place.
    Stop repeating this nonsense. The North East has been in “Tier 2” for a month already. We already have the data on whether Tier 2 is sufficient, although clearly not Tier 3.

    I don’t know the answer to that question, but the data is there.
    I think it's actually encouraging that we're seeing a slowing of the growth rate in cases in the current circumstances without tougher measures like the tier 3 restrictions. It shows that there is still slack in the system to put tough measures in place where they are needed rather than pulling the big lever of national lockdown.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,452

    Let me repeat for those unaware: The North East has already been in “Tier 2” for a month. We should already have the data on its effect on case numbers.

    This is Teesside erasure
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 15,619

    Have we given up on testing, tracing and isolating then?

    I gave up the day Serco were put in charge of it
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,293

    Let me repeat for those unaware: The North East has already been in “Tier 2” for a month. We should already have the data on its effect on case numbers.

    What makes you think a month is long enough to judge?

    Especially when that month coincided with the explosion in student infections?

    This is why its farcical to suggest that 2 weeks would work. Even a month isn't long enough to tell if its working meaningfully yet or not, absolutely no way to tell within 2 weeks.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,646
    Cyclefree said: "The politicians and others advocating more restrictions do have answers to these questions, don’t they?"

    Answers? To paraphrase Mel Brooks, "We don't need no stinking answers"

    The importance of this announcement at this point in time is to divert attention from the clusterf**k about to happen tomorrow and Friday.

    Far, far better to have the country up in arms over Covid than Brexit. Quelle coincidence that the announcements happen a couple of days before we realise that a complete capitulation by Boris is on the cards...
  • isamisam Posts: 34,617
    Why does Sir Keir want to close businesses in the South West of England when there is no Covid there?

    How come Cornwall had an extremely busy tourist season, yet there is no Covid there?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,188
    edited October 14
    Nigelb said:

    I wholeheartedly supported the first lockdown (indeed I thought it came later than it ought), as it gave us time to work out answers, and lasted long enough to get rates of infection low enough to give us more time after if was relaxed.

    We appear not to have spent that time terrifically well.

    As far as the proposed circuit breaker is concerned, other than give us a couple of weeks' pause, I don't have an answer to Cyclefree's questions.

    I think that is being a bit harsh. If the announcements are to be believed we now have things like 4 months of PPE supply. Testing capacity is 350k and still increasing. We do have an app, but it is massively limited by what Apple / Google allow.

    I think part of the problem is the government have oversold so many things e.g. get an antibody test and you will have an immunity passport, track and trace will be able to hunt down all the outbreaks, we will have an app that will definitely tell you if you were near a positive person, etc.

    Realistically, track and trace didn't even work that well when cases where just in the handfuls, because it is too slow a process to do it manually.

    The reality from the start, which initially the likes of Witty stated, this will be with us for several years and we will have to live with it.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,520

    The "Circuit Breaker" is at a best a delaying tactic. When it is over, we will still have the disease.

    It is, at best, a delay and, at worst, a complete waste of time.

    At best, it gets the virus down to levels that test, trace & isolate can cope with.
    Then TTI can control the outbreak and we won't need further lockdowns.

    We would have far fewer cases than otherwise and lots of lives are saved.

    I think the realistic worst is that it is just a delay.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 7,830
    edited October 14
    The premise to the questions is wrong, we shouldnt be expecting clear answers in a world of great uncertainty. That is not the fault of the scientists or the government, it is the nature of this virus and its relationship with the world.

    However vague unclear answers below:

    1,2,3 - 2-3 weeks is a circuit breaker, longer is a lockdown. A circuit breaker moves the infected numbers back a few weeks in time allowing either slightly looser restrictions or fewer deaths over the following few months, possibly a combination. It does not give a long term solution and no-one is saying it will do.

    4 - We will be in a similar place as we are today, but a better place than we would be in a months time without the breaker.

    5 - This is the interesting and difficult question. The govt has so far eventually delivered a reasonable and fair support across the country. Business liquidations were actually down for the year to July for example which is remarkable. They only did so under media pressure and are trying to reduce the level of state support, so who knows? Realistically I would assume support is somewhere halfway between what is currently promised (not enough) and what we had over the summer (enough for most).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,725
    I wonder if the general tone of the news coverage over the last week will have an effect on case numbers. That itself might cause slight reduction in household mixing.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 12,176
    edited October 14

    100% agreed with everything Cyclefree.

    Anyone who endorses a "2 week circuit breaker" is lying to themselves or lying to us. 2 weeks will do nothing but inflict catastrophic economic damage on every business hit by it.

    A 2 month circuit break might give health benefits. A 2 week circuit break is a farce. All pain no gain.

    A soft easy option to claim to support but not a proposal anyone credible or serious could endorse.

    My gut is that two more tiers will be added:

    4) All but essential retail, schools and unis closed. Building sites and online continues to operate (as per March lockdown)

    5) Schools and unis closed. Just essential retail left. Can't leave your county except for work etc.

    Because it makes NO sense to go from a lOCAL tier 3, which is still quite a soft lockdown, to NATIONWIDE lockdown. It hurts Winchester to slowly help Wigan....
  • StarryStarry Posts: 19
    isam said:
    He's such a moron, with an inflated view of his own importance. There would be more funerals, more in intensive care and less doctors available due to dealing with Covid. I distrust anyone giving out medical advice that doesn't have a background in medicine.
  • MaxPB said:

    Yes, lockdown for thee, not for me.

    As I said, if you polled people on whether people who test positive should isolate the result would be close to 100% in favour, the reality is that only 20% of people actually do it.

    Polling on this subject is completely useless.

    If you work in the public sector, or are on a pension, the COVID impact is either zero or maybe positive because you are working from home.

    That's a massive chunk of the population.

    The impact of COVID is being felt extremely unevenly. One thing the government must do is spread the load. I wonder what that poll would look like if Sunak announced a 5% across the board cut in pension payments.

    I reckon you could turn that poll on its head, effectively.
    I work in the private sector, financially it's been huge positive working from home, I'm saving £650 a month on train tickets, maybe £200 a month on eating out for lunch, and I've not bought any work related clothes since March.

    That 5% cut will have no impact on me, my colleagues have similar positives.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,646
    IshmaelZ said:

    The "Circuit Breaker" is at a best a delaying tactic. When it is over, we will still have the disease.

    It is, at best, a delay and, at worst, a complete waste of time.

    You are in the middle of the ocean in a leaking ship. The captain orders the pumps to be worked twice a day, every day, to prevent the ship sinking. Is the pumping at best, a delay and, at worst, a complete waste of time, because when it is completed, you still have the leak?
    Yes. The virus is here for keeps.

    In a ship with an infinite ocean ahead of it, the captain would be better off getting the crew and passengers into the lifeboats.
  • ladupnorthladupnorth Posts: 93
    edited October 14
    Excellent post by Cyclefree. So good in fact, that if I were Boris I would cut and paste it straight into an open letter to Sir Keir Starmer. As Sir Keir is the proposer of the circuit breaker I assume he already knows the answers to Cyclefree's questions.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 25,325

    Have we given up on testing, tracing and isolating then?

    I don't think the rhetoric has been given up but the practice perhaps so.

    I wonder how people would react to a draconian track & trace and then opening up the economy to a significant extent.

    Would please both "sides" potentially. OK you can go and party but if you all catch the pox then you are indoors on your own for 14 days at peril of a £XX,000 fine.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,814
    Also, 100% agreed Cyclefree. None of this has been answered by anyone who supports this policy. Even the scientists just say "yeah but it brings the R down", but in an environment where there is no short term resolution is that a worthwhile goal.

    The issue is that SAGE has a remit to look at the R and not a lot else, we need for the scientists to be forced to take into account the effects of their policy wider than just how it effects the R, maybe that's verging too far into rule by technocrat but it's very clear that none of the politicians have got the capability to investigate these issues themselves.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 4,641
    IanB2 said:

    Bozo started following the science. Then he followed Scotland. Now he's going to follow the opposition, isn't he?

    (I'm very much not making a direct parallel in the below)
    I wonder if PB had existed in WW2 what the daily Churchill posts would have been like?
    The fall of Singapore? Would have been ugly!
    (Not making parallels disclaimer off)

    Boris is doing ok. Just ok though, and that's making allowance for the impossibility of the situation and some small allowance for him being ill.

    The Government is doing much the same (a tad better perhaps).

    The opposition is doing well too. I don't agree with their current policy flash, but they are being quite responsible.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 12,492

    Being back to normal by Christmas ain't happening is it?

    We might have to wait for the second coming, rather than just a celebration of the first.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,188
    rkrkrk said:

    The "Circuit Breaker" is at a best a delaying tactic. When it is over, we will still have the disease.

    It is, at best, a delay and, at worst, a complete waste of time.

    At best, it gets the virus down to levels that test, trace & isolate can cope with.
    Then TTI can control the outbreak and we won't need further lockdowns.

    We would have far fewer cases than otherwise and lots of lives are saved.

    I think the realistic worst is that it is just a delay.
    It is a total unrealistic that TTI can cope even at low levels. It just isn't possible using a manual system. By the time somebody has felt ill (3-5 days after infection), got a test (another day), had the result (another day at best), the trace team start to get on it a week after the infection. Even if they get through to everybody you were in close contact with, which isn't possible, those who have been infected will have already passed it on for several others.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 7,752
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There may be differences within the Tory Party over the format of Brexit, over Cummings or the extent of Covid restrictions but one thing that unites all us Tories from Peterhead to Bournemouth is a loathing of the SNP and we will never give into them!!

    So after independence, the policy of the Conservatives will be to reconstitute the union and they will put that in their manifestos on both sides of the border?
    I can understand people disliking their opponents political philosophy, but 'loathing' seems a strong word. Why take that view; seems counter-productive to me.
    The SNP loathe the Tories, just the feeling is mutual that is all
    Speak for yourself

    This conservative does not loath the SNP or the Scots

    Most of my living family outside Wales are Scots

    I do not agree with the SNP but keep your loathing to yourself and your tanks, you Sassenach
    I spend a few days away on a research project and when I get tired and log on what do I find? Yet again, this year, it's even some of the southern Tories who are standing up for democracy in Scotland! The indy debate really has changed ...
    BigG is neither southern, he lives in Wales, nor a staunch Tory, he voted for Blair twice
    FPT and o/T - but I cannot let the slur on BigG stand. Her is almost due south of me - not even SSW.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,293
    Mortimer said:

    100% agreed with everything Cyclefree.

    Anyone who endorses a "2 week circuit breaker" is lying to themselves or lying to us. 2 weeks will do nothing but inflict catastrophic economic damage on every business hit by it.

    A 2 month circuit break might give health benefits. A 2 week circuit break is a farce. All pain no gain.

    A soft easy option to claim to support but not a proposal anyone credible or serious could endorse.

    My gut is that two more tiers will be added:

    4) All but essential retail, schools and unis closed. Building sites and online continues to operate (as per March lockdown)

    5) Schools and unis closed. Just essential retail left. Can't leave your county except for work etc.

    Because it makes NO sense to go from a lOCAL tier 3, which is still quite a soft lockdown, to NATIONWIDE lockdown. It hurts Winchester to slowly help Wigan....
    Yes I was surprised that just 3 tiers were announced. I would have announced 5 Tiers like you said, even if you don't want to use them they're there as a threat of what may be needed next if Tier 3 doesn't work.
  • rkrkrk said:

    The "Circuit Breaker" is at a best a delaying tactic. When it is over, we will still have the disease.

    It is, at best, a delay and, at worst, a complete waste of time.

    At best, it gets the virus down to levels that test, trace & isolate can cope with.
    Then TTI can control the outbreak and we won't need further lockdowns.

    We would have far fewer cases than otherwise and lots of lives are saved.

    I think the realistic worst is that it is just a delay.
    Exactly. I'm rather at a loss to understand how the Tories on this board have pivoted so rapidly from assuring us that TTI was working just fine (world-beating, even) to assuming that TTI can never work, so there's no point even trying to reduce the number of cases to a manageable level.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 259
    The only way to save the Union is for Labour to win the next election . Starmer is far more popular in Scotland than Bozo , although ironically even if inspite of that if Scotland does become independent then it’s likely to happen under a Labour government where the Tories will lay the blame on Starmer even though its they with their idiotic Brexit and clown leader who would have done all the damage.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 3,200

    MaxPB said:

    Yes, lockdown for thee, not for me.

    As I said, if you polled people on whether people who test positive should isolate the result would be close to 100% in favour, the reality is that only 20% of people actually do it.

    Polling on this subject is completely useless.

    If you work in the public sector, or are on a pension, the COVID impact is either zero or maybe positive because you are working from home.

    That's a massive chunk of the population.

    The impact of COVID is being felt extremely unevenly. One thing the government must do is spread the load. I wonder what that poll would look like if Sunak announced a 5% across the board cut in pension payments.

    I reckon you could turn that poll on its head, effectively.
    I work in the private sector, financially it's been huge positive working from home, I'm saving £650 a month on train tickets, maybe £200 a month on eating out for lunch, and I've not bought any work related clothes since March.

    That 5% cut will have no impact on me, my colleagues have similar positives.
    I'm the same, to be fair. Private sector and doing much better because of no commute, but I also realise the current arrangement is not sustainable.

    The sums show it isn't.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,814

    Let me repeat for those unaware: The North East has already been in “Tier 2” for a month. We should already have the data on its effect on case numbers.

    We already know, the doubling time in the NE is slowing down under the current measures and the tier 3 option is still available.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,904

    Being back to normal by Christmas ain't happening is it?

    QE and miniscule interest rates have been going on for so long, will they ever go away? And national debt is off the scale. What’s normal nowadays?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,814
    rkrkrk said:

    The "Circuit Breaker" is at a best a delaying tactic. When it is over, we will still have the disease.

    It is, at best, a delay and, at worst, a complete waste of time.

    At best, it gets the virus down to levels that test, trace & isolate can cope with.
    Then TTI can control the outbreak and we won't need further lockdowns.

    We would have far fewer cases than otherwise and lots of lives are saved.

    I think the realistic worst is that it is just a delay.
    We know that isn't going to happen because only 4 in 5 people who test positive don't isolate. This is what needs to be addressed and a new lockdown doesn't change that once it's over.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,904

    Have we given up on testing, tracing and isolating then?

    When did we try that?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,188
    MaxPB said:

    rkrkrk said:

    The "Circuit Breaker" is at a best a delaying tactic. When it is over, we will still have the disease.

    It is, at best, a delay and, at worst, a complete waste of time.

    At best, it gets the virus down to levels that test, trace & isolate can cope with.
    Then TTI can control the outbreak and we won't need further lockdowns.

    We would have far fewer cases than otherwise and lots of lives are saved.

    I think the realistic worst is that it is just a delay.
    We know that isn't going to happen because only 4 in 5 people who test positive don't isolate. This is what needs to be addressed and a new lockdown doesn't change that once it's over.
    And of course we are still busy importing new cases, with bugger all checks at airports.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 4,377

    IshmaelZ said:

    The "Circuit Breaker" is at a best a delaying tactic. When it is over, we will still have the disease.

    It is, at best, a delay and, at worst, a complete waste of time.

    You are in the middle of the ocean in a leaking ship. The captain orders the pumps to be worked twice a day, every day, to prevent the ship sinking. Is the pumping at best, a delay and, at worst, a complete waste of time, because when it is completed, you still have the leak?
    Yes. The virus is here for keeps.

    In a ship with an infinite ocean ahead of it, the captain would be better off getting the crew and passengers into the lifeboats.
    Why would he do that, if pumping works indefinitely? Why not just keep pumping? An indefinite series of temporary fixes comes to the same thing as a permanent fix, and is sometimes the only solution to a problem Why eat three meals a day when you're just going to be hungry again tomorrow? Why clean your house when you know that you're going to have to do it all over again?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,943
    The long COVID angle gets appallingly little attention. Just because you survive COVID doesn’t mean you’re out of the woods


  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,603
    MaxPB said:

    Also, 100% agreed Cyclefree. None of this has been answered by anyone who supports this policy. Even the scientists just say "yeah but it brings the R down", but in an environment where there is no short term resolution is that a worthwhile goal.

    The issue is that SAGE has a remit to look at the R and not a lot else, we need for the scientists to be forced to take into account the effects of their policy wider than just how it effects the R, maybe that's verging too far into rule by technocrat but it's very clear that none of the politicians have got the capability to investigate these issues themselves.

    Heneghan has proposed that we fund a proper trial of the areas in local lockdown and do something outrageous - actually find some evidence for SAGE to use as to whether these tiers work or not.

    See: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/14/no-good-evidence-circuit-breaker-lockdown/
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 7,830
    Liverpool and Man Utd voting against their own Big Picture (power grab) proposal? This is a crazy year.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,603
    Starry said:

    isam said:
    He's such a moron, with an inflated view of his own importance. There would be more funerals, more in intensive care and less doctors available due to dealing with Covid. I distrust anyone giving out medical advice that doesn't have a background in medicine.
    He's right though that Hancock has set up a classic strawman. No one is saying we just let the virus rip. And certainly not the Sweden advocates like me or the Great Barrington people.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The "Circuit Breaker" is at a best a delaying tactic. When it is over, we will still have the disease.

    It is, at best, a delay and, at worst, a complete waste of time.

    You are in the middle of the ocean in a leaking ship. The captain orders the pumps to be worked twice a day, every day, to prevent the ship sinking. Is the pumping at best, a delay and, at worst, a complete waste of time, because when it is completed, you still have the leak?
    Yes. The virus is here for keeps.

    In a ship with an infinite ocean ahead of it, the captain would be better off getting the crew and passengers into the lifeboats.
    Why would he do that, if pumping works indefinitely? Why not just keep pumping? An indefinite series of temporary fixes comes to the same thing as a permanent fix, and is sometimes the only solution to a problem Why eat three meals a day when you're just going to be hungry again tomorrow? Why clean your house when you know that you're going to have to do it all over again?
    Indeed. You do what you have to do to stay afloat, and you use the time you gain to work out more permanent solutions.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,520

    100% agreed with everything Cyclefree.

    Anyone who endorses a "2 week circuit breaker" is lying to themselves or lying to us. 2 weeks will do nothing but inflict catastrophic economic damage on every business hit by it.

    A 2 month circuit break might give health benefits. A 2 week circuit break is a farce. All pain no gain.

    A soft easy option to claim to support but not a proposal anyone credible or serious could endorse.

    Looking at the last lockdown - hospitalizations peaked on April 1st, 9 days after lockdown.

    On that day we had 3,099 new people hospitalized with COVID in England. Two weeks later, it was 1,608. Three weeks it was 1,310. So that's more than halving the number of new people going into hospital.

    This circuit breaker might be less effective because schools will be partially open. But I would still expect a substantial health benefit.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,646
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The "Circuit Breaker" is at a best a delaying tactic. When it is over, we will still have the disease.

    It is, at best, a delay and, at worst, a complete waste of time.

    You are in the middle of the ocean in a leaking ship. The captain orders the pumps to be worked twice a day, every day, to prevent the ship sinking. Is the pumping at best, a delay and, at worst, a complete waste of time, because when it is completed, you still have the leak?
    Yes. The virus is here for keeps.

    In a ship with an infinite ocean ahead of it, the captain would be better off getting the crew and passengers into the lifeboats.
    Why would he do that, if pumping works indefinitely? Why not just keep pumping? An indefinite series of temporary fixes comes to the same thing as a permanent fix, and is sometimes the only solution to a problem Why eat three meals a day when you're just going to be hungry again tomorrow? Why clean your house when you know that you're going to have to do it all over again?
    So - indefinite lockdown then?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,188
    edited October 14

    Liverpool and Man Utd voting against their own Big Picture (power grab) proposal? This is a crazy year.

    "The clubs also decided on a £50m rescue package for League One and Two clubs at the meeting."

    That's not going to touch the sides for them, given I think it is now clear we aren't getting crowds back this season.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,904
    edited October 14
    Omnium said:

    IanB2 said:

    Bozo started following the science. Then he followed Scotland. Now he's going to follow the opposition, isn't he?

    (I'm very much not making a direct parallel in the below)
    I wonder if PB had existed in WW2 what the daily Churchill posts would have been like?
    The fall of Singapore? Would have been ugly!
    (Not making parallels disclaimer off)

    Boris is doing ok. Just ok though, and that's making allowance for the impossibility of the situation and some small allowance for him being ill.

    The Government is doing much the same (a tad better perhaps).

    The opposition is doing well too. I don't agree with their current policy flash, but they are being quite responsible.

    Comparing Bozo to Churchill is an insult to the latter, though, isn’t it?

    I’m reading ‘the Splendid and the Vile’ at the moment - the story of the Churchill family and Britain in 1940 written in novelistic style by an American. It’s a very good read.

    One thing that strikes you about Churchill is that he was a workaholic and obsessive over details. He sat in bed firing off memos to all and sundry about every minutiae of Britain’s defences. A lot of this was of course unhelpful, but you can’t fault him for not being interested in knowing the detail, nor for not making sure that pretty much every idea that came his way was researched by someone, so that no loose end was left untied.

    Nor did he spend the crisis chasing after every young musician who came his way.

    His style of politics and governance was about as far from that of the lazy clown currently in No 10 as it is possible to imagine.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,293

    Starry said:

    isam said:
    He's such a moron, with an inflated view of his own importance. There would be more funerals, more in intensive care and less doctors available due to dealing with Covid. I distrust anyone giving out medical advice that doesn't have a background in medicine.
    He's right though that Hancock has set up a classic strawman. No one is saying we just let the virus rip. And certainly not the Sweden advocates like me or the Great Barrington people.
    Idiots like Hitchens are saying precisely that.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,188
    Four Wasps players and three staff members who work in the playing department of the Premiership finalists have tested positive for Covid-19.
  • isamisam Posts: 34,617

    Starry said:

    isam said:
    He's such a moron, with an inflated view of his own importance. There would be more funerals, more in intensive care and less doctors available due to dealing with Covid. I distrust anyone giving out medical advice that doesn't have a background in medicine.
    He's right though that Hancock has set up a classic strawman. No one is saying we just let the virus rip. And certainly not the Sweden advocates like me or the Great Barrington people.
    Idiots like Hitchens are saying precisely that.
    Idiots like him might be, but he isn't
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,844

    Nigelb said:

    I wholeheartedly supported the first lockdown (indeed I thought it came later than it ought), as it gave us time to work out answers, and lasted long enough to get rates of infection low enough to give us more time after if was relaxed.

    We appear not to have spent that time terrifically well.

    As far as the proposed circuit breaker is concerned, other than give us a couple of weeks' pause, I don't have an answer to Cyclefree's questions.

    I think that is being a bit harsh. If the announcements are to be believed we now have things like 4 months of PPE supply. Testing capacity is 350k and still increasing. We do have an app, but it is massively limited by what Apple / Google allow.

    I think part of the problem is the government have oversold so many things e.g. get an antibody test and you will have an immunity passport, track and trace will be able to hunt down all the outbreaks, we will have an app that will definitely tell you if you were near a positive person, etc.

    Realistically, track and trace didn't even work that well when cases where just in the handfuls, because it is too slow a process to do it manually.

    The reality from the start, which initially the likes of Witty stated, this will be with us for several years and we will have to live with it.
    I didn't say the first lockdown was useless, or that we hadn't done anything, just that we didn't do anything particularly effectively (aside from the clinical trials). Clearly we are better prepared now than we were on some fronts.

    Track and trace in particular has proved a huge disappointment, and I don't believe the whole testing to isolation process need be anywhere near as slow.

    And I'm not quite sure what the proposed fortnight is supposed to do.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 12,176

    rkrkrk said:

    The "Circuit Breaker" is at a best a delaying tactic. When it is over, we will still have the disease.

    It is, at best, a delay and, at worst, a complete waste of time.

    At best, it gets the virus down to levels that test, trace & isolate can cope with.
    Then TTI can control the outbreak and we won't need further lockdowns.

    We would have far fewer cases than otherwise and lots of lives are saved.

    I think the realistic worst is that it is just a delay.
    Exactly. I'm rather at a loss to understand how the Tories on this board have pivoted so rapidly from assuring us that TTI was working just fine (world-beating, even) to assuming that TTI can never work, so there's no point even trying to reduce the number of cases to a manageable level.
    TTI reminds me a bit of a consulting project I was on. Implementation team of a big systems change project.

    Near Christmas, 12 months into dev, I was tasked with working out how the biz would actually use the new system tools whilst my boss, the stream lead, was away.

    I had sat in at least 10 high level meetings with board members, dev director, IT teams etc in the previous weeks to get up to scratch with the background systems and biz users workflow. After about 2 hours studying the detail, I realised that all had failed to recognise the steps previous taken by the biz users were not inherent to the old tools, but inherent to the sector. And so the very way the new system was designed to be used had to be approached differently.

    So after 2 weeks of head scratching and testing with large groups of biz users, I came up with a solution that just about worked but had flaws. All other options were too hard (technically), too costly, or too unpalatable (to the business users, or more specifically their managers) to contemplate.

    In an ideal world, we'd use cc and mobile phone data, but it would be unpalatable to society. In a slightly less creepy ideal world, everyone would have a smartphone and would download the app, but we don't live in an ideal world.

    So we've ended up with a TTI system that just about works, but has significant flaws. It costs a fortune and has too many lag times built in to be that effective. It will be having some effect, and no doubt lots of people are working very hard in it. But the design of the system just isn't going to cut it for the task at hand....
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 7,752
    edited October 14
    nico679 said:

    The only way to save the Union is for Labour to win the next election . Starmer is far more popular in Scotland than Bozo , although ironically even if inspite of that if Scotland does become independent then it’s likely to happen under a Labour government where the Tories will lay the blame on Starmer even though its they with their idiotic Brexit and clown leader who would have done all the damage.

    The question to my mind is whether local Labour is popular enough to outweigh a great deal of overlap with the SNP and the Tories. If you want social democracy, SNP are your folk - they are implementijng it as best they can, remember how Mr Corbyn came to Scotland and demanded this and that only to find it had already been done. If you want full fat Britnattery HYUFD style, go for the ScoTories. Whyt bother with Labour?

    And I'm not thinking of Mr Leonard. I don't think he's that bad - I just can't think who could replace him without making it worse, in terms of civil wars within SLAB or a conflict between Mr Starmer and his branch office in Scotland (again, remember SLAB is a mere construct with no legal independence). I recall that it was Mr Leonard's Labour party opponents who complained about him being from Yorkshire, not his "official" opponents (and how many of his predecessors fell to hatchet jobs in their backs, e.g. Ms Alexander, Mr McLeish. And Labour has soon to face the dilemma of whether to ally themselves with the ScoTories, and we all know what happened last time.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,646
    Chili con Carne for dinner...... time to slave over a hot stove :D

    Later peeps!
  • MaxPB said:

    Yes, lockdown for thee, not for me.

    As I said, if you polled people on whether people who test positive should isolate the result would be close to 100% in favour, the reality is that only 20% of people actually do it.

    Polling on this subject is completely useless.

    Of course, that 20% would be a lot higher if we had Sweden's social security system.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,293
    rkrkrk said:

    100% agreed with everything Cyclefree.

    Anyone who endorses a "2 week circuit breaker" is lying to themselves or lying to us. 2 weeks will do nothing but inflict catastrophic economic damage on every business hit by it.

    A 2 month circuit break might give health benefits. A 2 week circuit break is a farce. All pain no gain.

    A soft easy option to claim to support but not a proposal anyone credible or serious could endorse.

    Looking at the last lockdown - hospitalizations peaked on April 1st, 9 days after lockdown.

    On that day we had 3,099 new people hospitalized with COVID in England. Two weeks later, it was 1,608. Three weeks it was 1,310. So that's more than halving the number of new people going into hospital.

    This circuit breaker might be less effective because schools will be partially open. But I would still expect a substantial health benefit.
    But that matches what I said. It took a month to see a substantial reduction. And that's with a vastly more serious lockdown.

    2 weeks just isn't long enough. It will do a lot of economic damage but not much epidemiological change.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 7,830

    Liverpool and Man Utd voting against their own Big Picture (power grab) proposal? This is a crazy year.

    "The clubs also decided on a £50m rescue package for League One and Two clubs at the meeting."

    That's not going to touch the sides for them, given I think it is now clear we aren't getting crowds back this season.
    Combined annual revenue for League 1 & 2 was a record £282m last year so £50m is very much touching the sides. It may not be enough for all but makes a big difference. Govt may match it as well.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 15,684

    Have we given up on testing, tracing and isolating then?

    I will be surprised if we ever get that working to a level that allows a resumption of normality. I think we're relying on medical solutions to end this.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,814

    MaxPB said:

    Yes, lockdown for thee, not for me.

    As I said, if you polled people on whether people who test positive should isolate the result would be close to 100% in favour, the reality is that only 20% of people actually do it.

    Polling on this subject is completely useless.

    Of course, that 20% would be a lot higher if we had Sweden's social security system.
    No it wouldn't the most common reason people broke isolation was to go shopping, not going to work.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 12,176
    nico679 said:

    The only way to save the Union is for Labour to win the next election . Starmer is far more popular in Scotland than Bozo , although ironically even if inspite of that if Scotland does become independent then it’s likely to happen under a Labour government where the Tories will lay the blame on Starmer even though its they with their idiotic Brexit and clown leader who would have done all the damage.

    Ironically, the presence of the SNP whinging whilst lavishing on their huge subsidy probably prevents Labour winning the next election....

    The SNP paradox is going to be:

    Can only get an indy referendum under a Labour Govt, or in coalition, but that their whinging leads enough English voters to vote to prevent the former, or the latter, happening, at a general election.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,060
    "The good old days of segregation"

  • IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The "Circuit Breaker" is at a best a delaying tactic. When it is over, we will still have the disease.

    It is, at best, a delay and, at worst, a complete waste of time.

    You are in the middle of the ocean in a leaking ship. The captain orders the pumps to be worked twice a day, every day, to prevent the ship sinking. Is the pumping at best, a delay and, at worst, a complete waste of time, because when it is completed, you still have the leak?
    Yes. The virus is here for keeps.

    In a ship with an infinite ocean ahead of it, the captain would be better off getting the crew and passengers into the lifeboats.
    Why would he do that, if pumping works indefinitely? Why not just keep pumping? An indefinite series of temporary fixes comes to the same thing as a permanent fix, and is sometimes the only solution to a problem Why eat three meals a day when you're just going to be hungry again tomorrow? Why clean your house when you know that you're going to have to do it all over again?
    Also, whilst the lifeboats (vaccines or mass treatments) will take somewhat longer to develop, optimise and distribute, in the grand scheme of things, we're damn lucky to be alive in a time when they are being developed as rapidly as they are. A year ago, this virus was probably still a tear in a Chinese bat's eye. It's pretty likely that by this time next year, there will be a vaccine that's good enough and inside enough people to solve the problem. If that happens, that's amazing if you think about it.

    Yes, the current situation sucks. And we need to think how to share the pain well. But we need to avoid a mistake analogous to suing for peace in World War II in 1941.

    Now that's something that really was expensive and harmed the life chances and mental health of the young.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 12,492

    MaxPB said:

    Yes, lockdown for thee, not for me.

    As I said, if you polled people on whether people who test positive should isolate the result would be close to 100% in favour, the reality is that only 20% of people actually do it.

    Polling on this subject is completely useless.

    If you work in the public sector, or are on a pension, the COVID impact is either zero or maybe positive because you are working from home.

    That's a massive chunk of the population.

    The impact of COVID is being felt extremely unevenly. One thing the government must do is spread the load. I wonder what that poll would look like if Sunak announced a 5% across the board cut in pension payments.

    I reckon you could turn that poll on its head, effectively.
    I work in the private sector, financially it's been huge positive working from home, I'm saving £650 a month on train tickets, maybe £200 a month on eating out for lunch, and I've not bought any work related clothes since March.

    That 5% cut will have no impact on me, my colleagues have similar positives.
    I'm the same, to be fair. Private sector and doing much better because of no commute, but I also realise the current arrangement is not sustainable.

    The sums show it isn't.
    Just to note that some of us in the private sector have had a 6 month temporary pay cut and seen colleagues shown the door. But at least there is no need to iron with WFH.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 7,830
    That might cost him his seat!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,603
    The answer to Gauke's question is at least three months. Once we have gone into national lockdown in winter we will not be allowed again until the spring.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,188
    I am sure the answer will be "I would follow the science"....which to the public sounds great...in reality it means 2-3 months in lockdown, not 2 weeks.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 3,200
    Trafalgar have Trump 48 / Biden 46 in Florida

    Rasmussen have Biden by five over Trump nationally.

    FWIW
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 4,641
    IanB2 said:

    Omnium said:

    IanB2 said:

    Bozo started following the science. Then he followed Scotland. Now he's going to follow the opposition, isn't he?

    (I'm very much not making a direct parallel in the below)
    I wonder if PB had existed in WW2 what the daily Churchill posts would have been like?
    The fall of Singapore? Would have been ugly!
    (Not making parallels disclaimer off)

    Boris is doing ok. Just ok though, and that's making allowance for the impossibility of the situation and some small allowance for him being ill.

    The Government is doing much the same (a tad better perhaps).

    The opposition is doing well too. I don't agree with their current policy flash, but they are being quite responsible.

    Comparing Bozo to Churchill is an insult to the latter, though, isn’t it?

    I’m reading ‘the Splendid and the Vile’ at the moment - the story of the Churchill family and Britain in 1940 written in novelistic style by an American. It’s a very good read.

    One thing that strikes you about Churchill is that he was a workaholic and obsessive over details. He sat in bed firing off memos to all and sundry about every minutiae of Britain’s defences. A lot of this was of course unhelpful, but you can’t fault him for not being interested in knowing the detail, nor for not making sure that pretty much every idea that came his way was researched by someone, so that no loose end was left untied.

    Nor did he spend the crisis chasing after every young musician who came his way.

    His style of politics and governance was about as far from that of the lazy clown currently in No 10 as it is possible to imagine.
    I think I was pretty clear in NOT comparing Boris with Churchill.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 7,830

    I am sure the answer will be "I would follow the science"....which to the public sounds great...in reality it means 2-3 months in lockdown, not 2 weeks.
    No the answer would be 2-3 weeks! Otherwise he is calling for a second lockdown, which he is clearly not.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,844
    I'm mildly surprised he hasn't yet dropped the n word.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,188
    edited October 14

    I am sure the answer will be "I would follow the science"....which to the public sounds great...in reality it means 2-3 months in lockdown, not 2 weeks.
    No the answer would be 2-3 weeks! Otherwise he is calling for a second lockdown, which he is clearly not.
    It would be a very brave politician to lift a "circuit breaker" when cases and deaths are still rising....which they would be, because 2 weeks isn't long enough for it to impact on them.

    Reality is nobody would, the public outcry would be deafening...you want me to go back to work when deaths are still rising.....
  • isamisam Posts: 34,617
    edited October 14

    I am sure the answer will be "I would follow the science"....which to the public sounds great...in reality it means 2-3 months in lockdown, not 2 weeks.
    No the answer would be 2-3 weeks! Otherwise he is calling for a second lockdown, which he is clearly not.
    It would be a very brave politician to lift a lockdown when cases and deaths are still rising....which they would be, because 2 weeks isn't long enough for it to impact on them.
    What does it matter? He is only proposing it to score political points - he has been rumbled as a dithering bore, the neutrals are starting to dislike him, he might as well try something
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 11,316
    edited October 14

    Trafalgar have Trump 48 / Biden 46 in Florida

    Rasmussen have Biden by five over Trump nationally.

    FWIW

    That’s Trump -1% with Trafalgar.

    Rasmussen:
    Biden: 50% (-2)
    Trump: 45% (+5)

    All owa the place.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 4,377

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The "Circuit Breaker" is at a best a delaying tactic. When it is over, we will still have the disease.

    It is, at best, a delay and, at worst, a complete waste of time.

    You are in the middle of the ocean in a leaking ship. The captain orders the pumps to be worked twice a day, every day, to prevent the ship sinking. Is the pumping at best, a delay and, at worst, a complete waste of time, because when it is completed, you still have the leak?
    Yes. The virus is here for keeps.

    In a ship with an infinite ocean ahead of it, the captain would be better off getting the crew and passengers into the lifeboats.
    Why would he do that, if pumping works indefinitely? Why not just keep pumping? An indefinite series of temporary fixes comes to the same thing as a permanent fix, and is sometimes the only solution to a problem Why eat three meals a day when you're just going to be hungry again tomorrow? Why clean your house when you know that you're going to have to do it all over again?
    So - indefinite lockdown then?
    Who knows? But you seem to be rejecting even temporary lockdowns, purely on the grounds that they are temporary. No point in applying that tourniquet, it will only prevent the victim from dying for the next 15 minutes.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,904
    Omnium said:

    IanB2 said:

    Omnium said:

    IanB2 said:

    Bozo started following the science. Then he followed Scotland. Now he's going to follow the opposition, isn't he?

    (I'm very much not making a direct parallel in the below)
    I wonder if PB had existed in WW2 what the daily Churchill posts would have been like?
    The fall of Singapore? Would have been ugly!
    (Not making parallels disclaimer off)

    Boris is doing ok. Just ok though, and that's making allowance for the impossibility of the situation and some small allowance for him being ill.

    The Government is doing much the same (a tad better perhaps).

    The opposition is doing well too. I don't agree with their current policy flash, but they are being quite responsible.

    Comparing Bozo to Churchill is an insult to the latter, though, isn’t it?

    I’m reading ‘the Splendid and the Vile’ at the moment - the story of the Churchill family and Britain in 1940 written in novelistic style by an American. It’s a very good read.

    One thing that strikes you about Churchill is that he was a workaholic and obsessive over details. He sat in bed firing off memos to all and sundry about every minutiae of Britain’s defences. A lot of this was of course unhelpful, but you can’t fault him for not being interested in knowing the detail, nor for not making sure that pretty much every idea that came his way was researched by someone, so that no loose end was left untied.

    Nor did he spend the crisis chasing after every young musician who came his way.

    His style of politics and governance was about as far from that of the lazy clown currently in No 10 as it is possible to imagine.
    I think I was pretty clear in NOT comparing Boris with Churchill.
    Your disclaimer in brackets was in the realm of “I’m not racist but....”. Why bring up wartime stuff if you didn’t intend to make some sort of comparison?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,603

    The long COVID angle gets appallingly little attention. Just because you survive COVID doesn’t mean you’re out of the woods


    Long covid gets plenty of attention in some media - Guardian and newstatesman have had regular pieces on it. Guardian has a piece today about hearing problems with the virus.

    It's a nasty condition and this is a horrible virus. But one still has weigh up the costs and benefits. Can we really shut down a whole society and economy because maybe 2-5% of properly infected people (i.e. not just + cases) get symptoms that last longer than a month and an even smaller % have symptoms after several months?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,814

    I am sure the answer will be "I would follow the science"....which to the public sounds great...in reality it means 2-3 months in lockdown, not 2 weeks.
    No the answer would be 2-3 weeks! Otherwise he is calling for a second lockdown, which he is clearly not.
    And what if cases haven't stopped rising by then?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 259
    edited October 14

    Trafalgar have Trump 48 / Biden 46 in Florida

    Rasmussen have Biden by five over Trump nationally.

    FWIW

    Trafalgar doesn’t publish in-depth tables and their methodology is a mystery . You get a one page release and that’s it .
This discussion has been closed.