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And the Answers Are ….? The circuit breaker proposal – politicalbetting.com

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  • Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There may be differences within the Tory Party over the format of Brexit, over Cummings or the extent of Covid restrictions but one thing that unites all us Tories from Peterhead to Bournemouth is a loathing of the SNP and we will never give into them!!

    So after independence, the policy of the Conservatives will be to reconstitute the union and they will put that in their manifestos on both sides of the border?
    I can understand people disliking their opponents political philosophy, but 'loathing' seems a strong word. Why take that view; seems counter-productive to me.
    The SNP loathe the Tories, just the feeling is mutual that is all
    Speak for yourself

    This conservative does not loath the SNP or the Scots

    Most of my living family outside Wales are Scots

    I do not agree with the SNP but keep your loathing to yourself and your tanks, you Sassenach
    I spend a few days away on a research project and when I get tired and log on what do I find? Yet again, this year, it's even some of the southern Tories who are standing up for democracy in Scotland! The indy debate really has changed ...
    BigG is neither southern, he lives in Wales, nor a staunch Tory, he voted for Blair twice
    FPT and o/T - but I cannot let the slur on BigG stand. Her is almost due south of me - not even SSW.
    I was born in Manchester with both English and Welsh parents as V bombs were raining over our house

    My Father ancestry going back to the 1600 is from Bolton

    My wife is a northern Scot from a fishing community

    I am not a fanatic conservative and hope Boris is seeing out his last few months in Office
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 9,311
    Has @Malmesbury posted yet or are they on the other thread?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,272
    edited October 14

    The long COVID angle gets appallingly little attention. Just because you survive COVID doesn’t mean you’re out of the woods


    Long covid gets plenty of attention in some media - Guardian and newstatesman have had regular pieces on it. Guardian has a piece today about hearing problems with the virus.

    It's a nasty condition and this is a horrible virus. But one still has weigh up the costs and benefits. Can we really shut down a whole society and economy because maybe 2-5% of properly infected people (i.e. not just + cases) get symptoms that last longer than a month and an even smaller % have symptoms after several months?
    We also have to be a bit careful here, I contracted nasty bout of pneumonia a couple of years ago, I was buggered for 6 months, wheezing away, gentle exercise really hard and had similar episodes of becoming wiped out if I tried to do too much. It did eventually pass.

    I am not saying people are making it up or anything, but we can't make any definite conclusions about in a years time if these people will still be suffering the same way.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 15,706

    Mortimer said:

    100% agreed with everything Cyclefree.

    Anyone who endorses a "2 week circuit breaker" is lying to themselves or lying to us. 2 weeks will do nothing but inflict catastrophic economic damage on every business hit by it.

    A 2 month circuit break might give health benefits. A 2 week circuit break is a farce. All pain no gain.

    A soft easy option to claim to support but not a proposal anyone credible or serious could endorse.

    My gut is that two more tiers will be added:

    4) All but essential retail, schools and unis closed. Building sites and online continues to operate (as per March lockdown)

    5) Schools and unis closed. Just essential retail left. Can't leave your county except for work etc.

    Because it makes NO sense to go from a lOCAL tier 3, which is still quite a soft lockdown, to NATIONWIDE lockdown. It hurts Winchester to slowly help Wigan....
    Yes I was surprised that just 3 tiers were announced. I would have announced 5 Tiers like you said, even if you don't want to use them they're there as a threat of what may be needed next if Tier 3 doesn't work.
    Far too complicated even as it is. Let's define a clear and simple set of national rules that we think will keep serious Covid cases within NHS capacity and put them in place for the next 6 months. Drop the divisive and inappropriate localism. The only difference between a place with few cases and one with lots is a couple of weeks. We can't "fine tune" this virus, going up and down the scales at different speeds in different places, it's a nonsense. Trying to run when we can't yet walk. Let's start walking. Preferably in the right direction.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 25,335
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The "Circuit Breaker" is at a best a delaying tactic. When it is over, we will still have the disease.

    It is, at best, a delay and, at worst, a complete waste of time.

    You are in the middle of the ocean in a leaking ship. The captain orders the pumps to be worked twice a day, every day, to prevent the ship sinking. Is the pumping at best, a delay and, at worst, a complete waste of time, because when it is completed, you still have the leak?
    Yes. The virus is here for keeps.

    In a ship with an infinite ocean ahead of it, the captain would be better off getting the crew and passengers into the lifeboats.
    Why would he do that, if pumping works indefinitely? Why not just keep pumping? An indefinite series of temporary fixes comes to the same thing as a permanent fix, and is sometimes the only solution to a problem Why eat three meals a day when you're just going to be hungry again tomorrow? Why clean your house when you know that you're going to have to do it all over again?
    So - indefinite lockdown then?
    Who knows? But you seem to be rejecting even temporary lockdowns, purely on the grounds that they are temporary. No point in applying that tourniquet, it will only prevent the victim from dying for the next 15 minutes.
    But applying it might poison his liver.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 7,868

    I am sure the answer will be "I would follow the science"....which to the public sounds great...in reality it means 2-3 months in lockdown, not 2 weeks.
    No the answer would be 2-3 weeks! Otherwise he is calling for a second lockdown, which he is clearly not.
    It would be a very brave politician to lift a "circuit breaker" when cases and deaths are still rising....which they would be, because 2 weeks isn't long enough for it to impact on them.

    Reality is nobody would, the public outcry would be deafening...you want me to go back to work when deaths are still rising.....
    It is going to happen so we will see.
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    FWIW

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    Trump: 45% (+5)

    All owa the place.
    Rasmussen have long had a reputation for providing every possible polling result over the course of a campaign, such that they can always say "look - we were right (before we were wrong before we were sort of right and then kind of very wrong again)".
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 9,311

    The long COVID angle gets appallingly little attention. Just because you survive COVID doesn’t mean you’re out of the woods


    Long covid gets plenty of attention in some media - Guardian and newstatesman have had regular pieces on it. Guardian has a piece today about hearing problems with the virus.

    It's a nasty condition and this is a horrible virus. But one still has weigh up the costs and benefits. Can we really shut down a whole society and economy because maybe 2-5% of properly infected people (i.e. not just + cases) get symptoms that last longer than a month and an even smaller % have symptoms after several months?
    We also have to be a bit careful here, I contracted nasty bout of pneumonia a couple of years ago, I was buggered for 6 months, wheezing away, gentle exercise really hard and had similar episodes of becoming wiped out if I tried to do too much. It did eventually pass.

    I am not saying people are making it up or anything, but we can't make any definite conclusions about in a years time if these people will still be suffering the same way.
    Indeed. Having had pneumonia and pleurisy together as a child it is bloody nasty.
    At least 6 months to be 100% even as an 8 year old.
    Maybe that will be long Covid. Maybe not.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 25,335

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There may be differences within the Tory Party over the format of Brexit, over Cummings or the extent of Covid restrictions but one thing that unites all us Tories from Peterhead to Bournemouth is a loathing of the SNP and we will never give into them!!

    So after independence, the policy of the Conservatives will be to reconstitute the union and they will put that in their manifestos on both sides of the border?
    I can understand people disliking their opponents political philosophy, but 'loathing' seems a strong word. Why take that view; seems counter-productive to me.
    The SNP loathe the Tories, just the feeling is mutual that is all
    Speak for yourself

    This conservative does not loath the SNP or the Scots

    Most of my living family outside Wales are Scots

    I do not agree with the SNP but keep your loathing to yourself and your tanks, you Sassenach
    I spend a few days away on a research project and when I get tired and log on what do I find? Yet again, this year, it's even some of the southern Tories who are standing up for democracy in Scotland! The indy debate really has changed ...
    BigG is neither southern, he lives in Wales, nor a staunch Tory, he voted for Blair twice
    FPT and o/T - but I cannot let the slur on BigG stand. Her is almost due south of me - not even SSW.
    I was born in Manchester with both English and Welsh parents as V bombs were raining over our house

    My Father ancestry going back to the 1600 is from Bolton

    My wife is a northern Scot from a fishing community

    I am not a fanatic conservative and hope Boris is seeing out his last few months in Office
    Why the wait?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 7,868
    MaxPB said:

    I am sure the answer will be "I would follow the science"....which to the public sounds great...in reality it means 2-3 months in lockdown, not 2 weeks.
    No the answer would be 2-3 weeks! Otherwise he is calling for a second lockdown, which he is clearly not.
    And what if cases haven't stopped rising by then?
    We would still be better off (in terms of infection rates) than we would have been without the circuit break. It is not a cure or a long term fix but that doesnt mean it is not worthwhile. We dont have a cure or long term fix so partial, temporary fixes are needed.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 7,814

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There may be differences within the Tory Party over the format of Brexit, over Cummings or the extent of Covid restrictions but one thing that unites all us Tories from Peterhead to Bournemouth is a loathing of the SNP and we will never give into them!!

    So after independence, the policy of the Conservatives will be to reconstitute the union and they will put that in their manifestos on both sides of the border?
    I can understand people disliking their opponents political philosophy, but 'loathing' seems a strong word. Why take that view; seems counter-productive to me.
    The SNP loathe the Tories, just the feeling is mutual that is all
    Speak for yourself

    This conservative does not loath the SNP or the Scots

    Most of my living family outside Wales are Scots

    I do not agree with the SNP but keep your loathing to yourself and your tanks, you Sassenach
    I spend a few days away on a research project and when I get tired and log on what do I find? Yet again, this year, it's even some of the southern Tories who are standing up for democracy in Scotland! The indy debate really has changed ...
    BigG is neither southern, he lives in Wales, nor a staunch Tory, he voted for Blair twice
    FPT and o/T - but I cannot let the slur on BigG stand. Her is almost due south of me - not even SSW.
    I was born in Manchester with both English and Welsh parents as V bombs were raining over our house

    My Father ancestry going back to the 1600 is from Bolton

    My wife is a northern Scot from a fishing community

    I am not a fanatic conservative and hope Boris is seeing out his last few months in Office
    Indzeed, I was just reading about the V-1 attacks on the Mancs - fortunately not well aimed.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,921
    edited October 14
    dixiedean said:

    The long COVID angle gets appallingly little attention. Just because you survive COVID doesn’t mean you’re out of the woods


    Long covid gets plenty of attention in some media - Guardian and newstatesman have had regular pieces on it. Guardian has a piece today about hearing problems with the virus.

    It's a nasty condition and this is a horrible virus. But one still has weigh up the costs and benefits. Can we really shut down a whole society and economy because maybe 2-5% of properly infected people (i.e. not just + cases) get symptoms that last longer than a month and an even smaller % have symptoms after several months?
    We also have to be a bit careful here, I contracted nasty bout of pneumonia a couple of years ago, I was buggered for 6 months, wheezing away, gentle exercise really hard and had similar episodes of becoming wiped out if I tried to do too much. It did eventually pass.

    I am not saying people are making it up or anything, but we can't make any definite conclusions about in a years time if these people will still be suffering the same way.
    Indeed. Having had pneumonia and pleurisy together as a child it is bloody nasty.
    At least 6 months to be 100% even as an 8 year old.
    Maybe that will be long Covid. Maybe not.
    As I posted before, when I left Bergamo a few weeks back, they were just nearing the end of their second review of all their patients who had had the virus back in the spring. At first review about 30% of them had some sort of clinically significant after effects, ranging from mild to quite severe. At second follow up (pretty much six months post illness), the large majority of that 30% were improved, some completely recovered, but a few still suffering serious complications mostly heart or lung related, plus some psychological.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 25,335

    MaxPB said:

    I am sure the answer will be "I would follow the science"....which to the public sounds great...in reality it means 2-3 months in lockdown, not 2 weeks.
    No the answer would be 2-3 weeks! Otherwise he is calling for a second lockdown, which he is clearly not.
    And what if cases haven't stopped rising by then?
    We would still be better off (in terms of infection rates) than we would have been without the circuit break. It is not a cure or a long term fix but that doesnt mean it is not worthwhile. We dont have a cure or long term fix so partial, temporary fixes are needed.
    If we cut the speed limit on the A1 and M1 to 20 mph for six months that would save lives.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,850

    MaxPB said:

    I am sure the answer will be "I would follow the science"....which to the public sounds great...in reality it means 2-3 months in lockdown, not 2 weeks.
    No the answer would be 2-3 weeks! Otherwise he is calling for a second lockdown, which he is clearly not.
    And what if cases haven't stopped rising by then?
    We would still be better off (in terms of infection rates) than we would have been without the circuit break. It is not a cure or a long term fix but that doesnt mean it is not worthwhile. We dont have a cure or long term fix so partial, temporary fixes are needed.
    How do you know that?
  • kicorsekicorse Posts: 400
    On topic, my answers to the questions in the article:

    1) Whatever fixed amount of time SAGE now recommend. On 21st Sept, they said two or three weeks, but the delay might mean a longer circuit-breaker is now needed.

    2) To get the number of cases down. Simple as that. Unreasonable to demand that a sensible measure solve a problem that it doesn't seek to solve. But yes, I'd also love to have a competent government consulting appropriately, and then effectively communicating evidence-based policy.

    3) A reduction in the number of cases, such that the country can withstand a couple of months afterwards with R>1, which seems almost inevitable.

    4) Most likely, for cases to go up again, and for another circuit-breaker to be needed at some point before winter's over. If there are huge improvements in test-and-trace and in government communication with local authorities and the public, then R might stay below 1 and this may not be necessary. Little grounds for optimism there, of course. However, it's not the job of SAGE to make governance more competent. It's their job to deal with the government we have and provide the scientific advice for the situation we're in.

    As for the vaccine point, the scenario in which one is never found needs to be kept in mind, yes. And of course, we can't have circuit-breakers every couple of months for years. But that doesn't become an argument until, at the very earliest, it becomes clear that non-lockdown R<1 isn't achievable through a properly functioning test-and-trace.

    5) That's a tough one and here is the one area where I do sympathise with the government, because a completely just solution isn't possible. But delivering certainty by fixing an end-date for the lockdown, which will be adhered to in any but a black swan scenario, would be one major step.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 7,868
    If they pay me 1 days fee at that rate I can advise them where they can make some future savings on their consultancy costs.......
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 18,336
    edited October 14
    By the looks of the by Specimen date chart on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases it looks like we started levelling off on the 7th for the number of new cases per day.

    Near perfect Exponential curve from September 15th till then though.
  • Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There may be differences within the Tory Party over the format of Brexit, over Cummings or the extent of Covid restrictions but one thing that unites all us Tories from Peterhead to Bournemouth is a loathing of the SNP and we will never give into them!!

    So after independence, the policy of the Conservatives will be to reconstitute the union and they will put that in their manifestos on both sides of the border?
    I can understand people disliking their opponents political philosophy, but 'loathing' seems a strong word. Why take that view; seems counter-productive to me.
    The SNP loathe the Tories, just the feeling is mutual that is all
    Speak for yourself

    This conservative does not loath the SNP or the Scots

    Most of my living family outside Wales are Scots

    I do not agree with the SNP but keep your loathing to yourself and your tanks, you Sassenach
    I spend a few days away on a research project and when I get tired and log on what do I find? Yet again, this year, it's even some of the southern Tories who are standing up for democracy in Scotland! The indy debate really has changed ...
    BigG is neither southern, he lives in Wales, nor a staunch Tory, he voted for Blair twice
    FPT and o/T - but I cannot let the slur on BigG stand. Her is almost due south of me - not even SSW.
    I was born in Manchester with both English and Welsh parents as V bombs were raining over our house

    My Father ancestry going back to the 1600 is from Bolton

    My wife is a northern Scot from a fishing community

    I am not a fanatic conservative and hope Boris is seeing out his last few months in Office
    Indzeed, I was just reading about the V-1 attacks on the Mancs - fortunately not well aimed.
    One landed a few doors away killing 6

    You just waited and hoped you did not hear the engine cut out
  • TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There may be differences within the Tory Party over the format of Brexit, over Cummings or the extent of Covid restrictions but one thing that unites all us Tories from Peterhead to Bournemouth is a loathing of the SNP and we will never give into them!!

    So after independence, the policy of the Conservatives will be to reconstitute the union and they will put that in their manifestos on both sides of the border?
    I can understand people disliking their opponents political philosophy, but 'loathing' seems a strong word. Why take that view; seems counter-productive to me.
    The SNP loathe the Tories, just the feeling is mutual that is all
    Speak for yourself

    This conservative does not loath the SNP or the Scots

    Most of my living family outside Wales are Scots

    I do not agree with the SNP but keep your loathing to yourself and your tanks, you Sassenach
    I spend a few days away on a research project and when I get tired and log on what do I find? Yet again, this year, it's even some of the southern Tories who are standing up for democracy in Scotland! The indy debate really has changed ...
    BigG is neither southern, he lives in Wales, nor a staunch Tory, he voted for Blair twice
    FPT and o/T - but I cannot let the slur on BigG stand. Her is almost due south of me - not even SSW.
    I was born in Manchester with both English and Welsh parents as V bombs were raining over our house

    My Father ancestry going back to the 1600 is from Bolton

    My wife is a northern Scot from a fishing community

    I am not a fanatic conservative and hope Boris is seeing out his last few months in Office
    Why the wait?
    Realistically it will not happen before the end of transition

    And on that the pound rising strongly v the euro and dollar on positive comments from Germany that a deal is near
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,922
    I wouldn't mind if they were worth more than a bucket of warm spit.
    Bearing in mind pooled testing...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,850
    Alistair said:

    By the looks of the by Specimen date chart on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases it looks like we started levelling off on the 7th for the number of new cases per day.

    Near perfect Exponential curve from September 15th till then though.

    Yes the doubling time has definitely started getting longer since around the 7th. I'm worried that it won't hold and we'll see 20-23k cases per day over the next week or so and more areas will go into tier 3 measures.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 7,868
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I am sure the answer will be "I would follow the science"....which to the public sounds great...in reality it means 2-3 months in lockdown, not 2 weeks.
    No the answer would be 2-3 weeks! Otherwise he is calling for a second lockdown, which he is clearly not.
    And what if cases haven't stopped rising by then?
    We would still be better off (in terms of infection rates) than we would have been without the circuit break. It is not a cure or a long term fix but that doesnt mean it is not worthwhile. We dont have a cure or long term fix so partial, temporary fixes are needed.
    How do you know that?
    Because there would be fewer social interactions? Below from SAGE, doesnt sound outlandish or controversial to me.

    ----

    A “circuit-breaker”, in which a package of stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions is
    reintroduced for 2-3 weeks should act to reduce R below 1. Over a fortnight’s “break”, two
    weeks of growth could be exchanged for two weeks of decay in transmission, assuming
    good adherence to measures, and no additional increase in contacts before or after the
    break. If this were as strict and well-adhered to as the restrictions in late May, this could put
    the epidemic back by approximately 28 days or more. The amount of “time gained” is highly
    dependent on how quickly the epidemic is growing – the faster the growth or stricter the
    measures introduced, the more time gained.

    If regulations and behaviour then returned to pre-circuit break levels, there would be a
    return to exponential growth, but from a significantly lower level than would have been the
    case without the break. The deleterious impact would be maximised if they coincided with
    school holidays. Multiple circuit-breaks might be necessary to maintain low levels of
    incidence.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 18,336
    DavidL said:

    A friend just texted me to say that the pie chart on the BBC News website shows that so far there have been 29 deaths of people between the ages of 15 and 44 from Covid. To put that in context the number of people who died of an overdose of ecstasy in 2018, the last year for which full figures are available is...29.

    That's for Scotland?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,381
    Alistair said:

    By the looks of the by Specimen date chart on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases it looks like we started levelling off on the 7th for the number of new cases per day.

    Near perfect Exponential curve from September 15th till then though.

    Well spotted, it does indeed. Very good news. And looking at the Testing data too it looks like there is a good amount of slack now in the testing system.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,921
    edited October 14
    DavidL said:

    A friend just texted me to say that the pie chart on the BBC News website shows that so far there have been 29 deaths of people between the ages of 15 and 44 from Covid. To put that in context the number of people who died of an overdose of ecstasy in 2018, the last year for which full figures are available is...29.

    So for the part of the population most severely affected by lockdown, whether in terms of employment, education, socialising or sex life, Covid is as dangerous as ecstasy.

    This just cannot be justified. We need to do what we can to protect those that are more vulnerable and be honest enough to admit that this will not always work but we cannot keep destroying peoples' lives for such a trivial risk.

    2 week circuit breaks are just stupid and childish gestures that inflict far more harm than they can possibly prevent. We need to get a grip and accept that we will have to live with this virus for some time to come. The key word in that sentence is "live".

    I agree.

    Starmer didn’t propose the circuit break because it fits into some sort of Labour strategy or analysis of what is needed to combat the virus.

    He has simply been watching the way in which Bozo has failed to do the politics properly and is consequently pushed this way and that by opposition to whatever he has just announced, spotted the scientists’ advice that the government had rejected, and (rightly) guessed that the next set of pressures would be pushing the government toward a tighter lockdown.

    He’s jumped in front of the next government change of direction and hence compounded its problems. And silenced those Tories using the “so what would you do?” line of attack. Entertaining politics but of sod all use to the country in working out how to go forward.
  • Alistair said:

    By the looks of the by Specimen date chart on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases it looks like we started levelling off on the 7th for the number of new cases per day.

    Near perfect Exponential curve from September 15th till then though.

    Well spotted, it does indeed. Very good news. And looking at the Testing data too it looks like there is a good amount of slack now in the testing system.
    Clutching at straws I feel.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,850
    edited October 14

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I am sure the answer will be "I would follow the science"....which to the public sounds great...in reality it means 2-3 months in lockdown, not 2 weeks.
    No the answer would be 2-3 weeks! Otherwise he is calling for a second lockdown, which he is clearly not.
    And what if cases haven't stopped rising by then?
    We would still be better off (in terms of infection rates) than we would have been without the circuit break. It is not a cure or a long term fix but that doesnt mean it is not worthwhile. We dont have a cure or long term fix so partial, temporary fixes are needed.
    How do you know that?
    Because there would be fewer social interactions? Below from SAGE, doesnt sound outlandish or controversial to me.

    ----

    A “circuit-breaker”, in which a package of stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions is
    reintroduced for 2-3 weeks should act to reduce R below 1. Over a fortnight’s “break”, two
    weeks of growth could be exchanged for two weeks of decay in transmission, assuming
    good adherence to measures, and no additional increase in contacts before or after the
    break. If this were as strict and well-adhered to as the restrictions in late May, this could put
    the epidemic back by approximately 28 days or more. The amount of “time gained” is highly
    dependent on how quickly the epidemic is growing – the faster the growth or stricter the
    measures introduced, the more time gained.

    If regulations and behaviour then returned to pre-circuit break levels, there would be a
    return to exponential growth, but from a significantly lower level than would have been the
    case without the break. The deleterious impact would be maximised if they coincided with
    school holidays. Multiple circuit-breaks might be necessary to maintain low levels of
    incidence.
    The range is 3k to 107k in terms of deaths in total. How do you know?

    You've also gone from one circuit break to multiple. Is that what is being proposed?
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 1,414
    The situation in Europe is that all countries will go through a 2nd wave in an often erratcic way, with some areas badly affected and others barely touched. I really don't think it matters what countries do, it will happen. It is clear that the 2nd wave is significantly less than the first by around a magnitude of 4-5. Spain looks like it is past peak of the 2nd wave and we look like we will reach peak in about a week. The NHS triage data has come down a lot over the last two weeks and this data is the best early indicator. A lockdown now would be a complete waste of time and would achieve nothing.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,850
    edited October 14

    Alistair said:

    By the looks of the by Specimen date chart on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases it looks like we started levelling off on the 7th for the number of new cases per day.

    Near perfect Exponential curve from September 15th till then though.

    Well spotted, it does indeed. Very good news. And looking at the Testing data too it looks like there is a good amount of slack now in the testing system.
    Clutching at straws I feel.
    You seem worried that cases will start to drop, why?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,381

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I am sure the answer will be "I would follow the science"....which to the public sounds great...in reality it means 2-3 months in lockdown, not 2 weeks.
    No the answer would be 2-3 weeks! Otherwise he is calling for a second lockdown, which he is clearly not.
    And what if cases haven't stopped rising by then?
    We would still be better off (in terms of infection rates) than we would have been without the circuit break. It is not a cure or a long term fix but that doesnt mean it is not worthwhile. We dont have a cure or long term fix so partial, temporary fixes are needed.
    How do you know that?
    Because there would be fewer social interactions? Below from SAGE, doesnt sound outlandish or controversial to me.

    ----

    A “circuit-breaker”, in which a package of stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions is
    reintroduced for 2-3 weeks should act to reduce R below 1. Over a fortnight’s “break”, two
    weeks of growth could be exchanged for two weeks of decay in transmission, assuming
    good adherence to measures, and no additional increase in contacts before or after the
    break. If this were as strict and well-adhered to as the restrictions in late May, this could put
    the epidemic back by approximately 28 days or more. The amount of “time gained” is highly
    dependent on how quickly the epidemic is growing – the faster the growth or stricter the
    measures introduced, the more time gained.

    If regulations and behaviour then returned to pre-circuit break levels, there would be a
    return to exponential growth, but from a significantly lower level than would have been the
    case without the break. The deleterious impact would be maximised if they coincided with
    school holidays. Multiple circuit-breaks might be necessary to maintain low levels of
    incidence.
    The final line is the truth. It won't work, it is at best an exercise in stalling and then you'd need to do the same thing all over again.

    Better to go back into a proper lockdown and tell businesses to close until the Spring than prat around with this cycling nonsense!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 8,647
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There may be differences within the Tory Party over the format of Brexit, over Cummings or the extent of Covid restrictions but one thing that unites all us Tories from Peterhead to Bournemouth is a loathing of the SNP and we will never give into them!!

    So after independence, the policy of the Conservatives will be to reconstitute the union and they will put that in their manifestos on both sides of the border?
    I can understand people disliking their opponents political philosophy, but 'loathing' seems a strong word. Why take that view; seems counter-productive to me.
    The SNP loathe the Tories, just the feeling is mutual that is all
    Speak for yourself

    This conservative does not loath the SNP or the Scots

    Most of my living family outside Wales are Scots

    I do not agree with the SNP but keep your loathing to yourself and your tanks, you Sassenach
    I spend a few days away on a research project and when I get tired and log on what do I find? Yet again, this year, it's even some of the southern Tories who are standing up for democracy in Scotland! The indy debate really has changed ...
    BigG is neither southern, he lives in Wales, nor a staunch Tory, he voted for Blair twice
    FPT and o/T - but I cannot let the slur on BigG stand. Her is almost due south of me - not even SSW.
    I was born in Manchester with both English and Welsh parents as V bombs were raining over our house

    My Father ancestry going back to the 1600 is from Bolton

    My wife is a northern Scot from a fishing community

    I am not a fanatic conservative and hope Boris is seeing out his last few months in Office
    Indzeed, I was just reading about the V-1 attacks on the Mancs - fortunately not well aimed.
    One landed a few doors away killing 6

    You just waited and hoped you did not hear the engine cut out
    Funny, I remember my aunt using exactly those words to me when I was a kid. She said she felt ashamed that she prayed the engine would keep going until it passed over because she knew it would land elsewhere. Personally I see no shame in that and can well understand the sheer terror.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 7,868
    edited October 14
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I am sure the answer will be "I would follow the science"....which to the public sounds great...in reality it means 2-3 months in lockdown, not 2 weeks.
    No the answer would be 2-3 weeks! Otherwise he is calling for a second lockdown, which he is clearly not.
    And what if cases haven't stopped rising by then?
    We would still be better off (in terms of infection rates) than we would have been without the circuit break. It is not a cure or a long term fix but that doesnt mean it is not worthwhile. We dont have a cure or long term fix so partial, temporary fixes are needed.
    How do you know that?
    Because there would be fewer social interactions? Below from SAGE, doesnt sound outlandish or controversial to me.

    ----

    A “circuit-breaker”, in which a package of stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions is
    reintroduced for 2-3 weeks should act to reduce R below 1. Over a fortnight’s “break”, two
    weeks of growth could be exchanged for two weeks of decay in transmission, assuming
    good adherence to measures, and no additional increase in contacts before or after the
    break. If this were as strict and well-adhered to as the restrictions in late May, this could put
    the epidemic back by approximately 28 days or more. The amount of “time gained” is highly
    dependent on how quickly the epidemic is growing – the faster the growth or stricter the
    measures introduced, the more time gained.

    If regulations and behaviour then returned to pre-circuit break levels, there would be a
    return to exponential growth, but from a significantly lower level than would have been the
    case without the break. The deleterious impact would be maximised if they coincided with
    school holidays. Multiple circuit-breaks might be necessary to maintain low levels of
    incidence.
    The range is 3k to 107k in terms of deaths in total. How do you know?

    You've also gone from one circuit break to multiple. Is that what is being proposed?
    How do I know what? Exactly how many deaths? Of course I dont and no-one can know. Ruling out a policy because no-one can know the exact outcome is nonsense in a world of extreme uncertainty.

    I suggested scheduled circuit breaks of 2 weeks every 2 months back in the summer so I would be in favour of multiple ones. Starmer is suggesting one at the moment but I doubt he is ruling out more. SAGE are clearly open to more than 1.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 8,647
    UK Cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K population

    image
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,639
    I've noticed that RCP tends to headline the state polls that are good for Trump like Florida Trump +2, even when there are more surprising ones like Georgia Biden +2.
  • MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    By the looks of the by Specimen date chart on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases it looks like we started levelling off on the 7th for the number of new cases per day.

    Near perfect Exponential curve from September 15th till then though.

    Well spotted, it does indeed. Very good news. And looking at the Testing data too it looks like there is a good amount of slack now in the testing system.
    Clutching at straws I feel.
    You seem worried that cases will start to drop, why?
    Not the first time PB Tories have insisted cases will drop, let's see.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 3,200
    DavidL said:

    A friend just texted me to say that the pie chart on the BBC News website shows that so far there have been 29 deaths of people between the ages of 15 and 44 from Covid. To put that in context the number of people who died of an overdose of ecstasy in 2018, the last year for which full figures are available is...29.

    So for the part of the population most severely affected by lockdown, whether in terms of employment, education, socialising or sex life, Covid is as dangerous as ecstasy.

    This just cannot be justified. We need to do what we can to protect those that are more vulnerable and be honest enough to admit that this will not always work but we cannot keep destroying peoples' lives for such a trivial risk.

    2 week circuit breaks are just stupid and childish gestures that inflict far more harm than they can possibly prevent. We need to get a grip and accept that we will have to live with this virus for some time to come. The key word in that sentence is "live".

    Yup on all counts.

    Young people have been treated very badly in this pandemic.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,381

    Alistair said:

    By the looks of the by Specimen date chart on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases it looks like we started levelling off on the 7th for the number of new cases per day.

    Near perfect Exponential curve from September 15th till then though.

    Well spotted, it does indeed. Very good news. And looking at the Testing data too it looks like there is a good amount of slack now in the testing system.
    Clutching at straws I feel.
    You seem distraught at the idea this might be brought under control without a lockdown.

    Its not a good look.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 8,647
    UK case summary

    image
    image
    image
    image
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,850

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I am sure the answer will be "I would follow the science"....which to the public sounds great...in reality it means 2-3 months in lockdown, not 2 weeks.
    No the answer would be 2-3 weeks! Otherwise he is calling for a second lockdown, which he is clearly not.
    And what if cases haven't stopped rising by then?
    We would still be better off (in terms of infection rates) than we would have been without the circuit break. It is not a cure or a long term fix but that doesnt mean it is not worthwhile. We dont have a cure or long term fix so partial, temporary fixes are needed.
    How do you know that?
    Because there would be fewer social interactions? Below from SAGE, doesnt sound outlandish or controversial to me.

    ----

    A “circuit-breaker”, in which a package of stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions is
    reintroduced for 2-3 weeks should act to reduce R below 1. Over a fortnight’s “break”, two
    weeks of growth could be exchanged for two weeks of decay in transmission, assuming
    good adherence to measures, and no additional increase in contacts before or after the
    break. If this were as strict and well-adhered to as the restrictions in late May, this could put
    the epidemic back by approximately 28 days or more. The amount of “time gained” is highly
    dependent on how quickly the epidemic is growing – the faster the growth or stricter the
    measures introduced, the more time gained.

    If regulations and behaviour then returned to pre-circuit break levels, there would be a
    return to exponential growth, but from a significantly lower level than would have been the
    case without the break. The deleterious impact would be maximised if they coincided with
    school holidays. Multiple circuit-breaks might be necessary to maintain low levels of
    incidence.
    The range is 3k to 107k in terms of deaths in total. How do you know?

    You've also gone from one circuit break to multiple. Is that what is being proposed?
    How do I know what? Exactly how many deaths? Of course I dont and no-one can know. Ruling out a policy because no-one can know the exact outcome is nonsense in a world of extreme uncertainty.

    I suggested scheduled circuit breaks of 2 weeks every 2 months back in the summer so I would be in favour of multiple ones. Starmer is suggesting one at the moment but I doubt he is ruling out more. SAGE are clearly open to more than 1.
    And what does that to so the economy?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,598
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    A friend just texted me to say that the pie chart on the BBC News website shows that so far there have been 29 deaths of people between the ages of 15 and 44 from Covid. To put that in context the number of people who died of an overdose of ecstasy in 2018, the last year for which full figures are available is...29.

    So for the part of the population most severely affected by lockdown, whether in terms of employment, education, socialising or sex life, Covid is as dangerous as ecstasy.

    This just cannot be justified. We need to do what we can to protect those that are more vulnerable and be honest enough to admit that this will not always work but we cannot keep destroying peoples' lives for such a trivial risk.

    2 week circuit breaks are just stupid and childish gestures that inflict far more harm than they can possibly prevent. We need to get a grip and accept that we will have to live with this virus for some time to come. The key word in that sentence is "live".

    I agree.

    Starmer didn’t propose the circuit break because it fits into some sort of Labour strategy or analysis of what is needed to combat the virus.

    He has simply been watching the way in which Bozo has failed to do the politics properly and is consequently pushed this way and that by opposition to whatever he has just announced, spotted the scientists’ advice that the government had rejected, and (rightly) guessed that the next set of pressures would be pushing the government toward a tighter lockdown.

    He’s jumped in front of the next government change of direction and hence compounded its problems. And silenced those Tories using the “so what would you do?” line of attack. Entertaining politics but of sod all use to the country in working out how to go forward.
    Why does Boris not simply say that we are not convinced that a 2 week circuit break will help but we have the evidence of central Scotland which is nearly half way through that now. If it produces evidence that it actually works we will look at it again but right now the cost in jobs and businesses seems disproportionate.
  • Alistair said:

    By the looks of the by Specimen date chart on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases it looks like we started levelling off on the 7th for the number of new cases per day.

    Near perfect Exponential curve from September 15th till then though.

    Well spotted, it does indeed. Very good news. And looking at the Testing data too it looks like there is a good amount of slack now in the testing system.
    Clutching at straws I feel.
    You sound as if you want more misery and worse
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,272
    edited October 14

    I am sure the answer will be "I would follow the science"....which to the public sounds great...in reality it means 2-3 months in lockdown, not 2 weeks.
    No the answer would be 2-3 weeks! Otherwise he is calling for a second lockdown, which he is clearly not.
    It would be a very brave politician to lift a "circuit breaker" when cases and deaths are still rising....which they would be, because 2 weeks isn't long enough for it to impact on them.

    Reality is nobody would, the public outcry would be deafening...you want me to go back to work when deaths are still rising.....
    It is going to happen so we will see.
    No, we will end up with most of the country in Tier 3 and it will last until at least Christmas. Starmer will claim we should have done a circuit breaker earlier, but we are now, Boris will claim we aren't, its local lockdowns, but sure as eggs is eggs it won't be just 2 weeks.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 8,647
    UK Hospitals

    image
    image
    image
    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 8,647
    UK Deaths

    image
    image
    image
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 426
    IshmaelZ said:

    The "Circuit Breaker" is at a best a delaying tactic. When it is over, we will still have the disease.

    It is, at best, a delay and, at worst, a complete waste of time.

    You are in the middle of the ocean in a leaking ship. The captain orders the pumps to be worked twice a day, every day, to prevent the ship sinking. Is the pumping at best, a delay and, at worst, a complete waste of time, because when it is completed, you still have the leak?
    Unfortunately, it is like that, except that running the pumps also causes you to run out of fuel. Running them in short bursts costs more fuel.

    Eventually everyone is going to end in the water unless the rescue boat arrives.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,381

    I am sure the answer will be "I would follow the science"....which to the public sounds great...in reality it means 2-3 months in lockdown, not 2 weeks.
    No the answer would be 2-3 weeks! Otherwise he is calling for a second lockdown, which he is clearly not.
    It would be a very brave politician to lift a "circuit breaker" when cases and deaths are still rising....which they would be, because 2 weeks isn't long enough for it to impact on them.

    Reality is nobody would, the public outcry would be deafening...you want me to go back to work when deaths are still rising.....
    It is going to happen so we will see.
    No, we will end up with most of the country in Tier 3 and it will last until at least Christmas. Starmer will claim we should have done a circuit breaker earlier, but we are now, Boris will claim we aren't, its local lockdowns, but sure as eggs is eggs it won't be just 2 weeks.
    That would be better than a circuit break.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,598
    In fairness the strategic genius of ensuring that economics was not available in State Schools in Scotland has to be given credit. A masterstroke.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,921

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There may be differences within the Tory Party over the format of Brexit, over Cummings or the extent of Covid restrictions but one thing that unites all us Tories from Peterhead to Bournemouth is a loathing of the SNP and we will never give into them!!

    So after independence, the policy of the Conservatives will be to reconstitute the union and they will put that in their manifestos on both sides of the border?
    I can understand people disliking their opponents political philosophy, but 'loathing' seems a strong word. Why take that view; seems counter-productive to me.
    The SNP loathe the Tories, just the feeling is mutual that is all
    Speak for yourself

    This conservative does not loath the SNP or the Scots

    Most of my living family outside Wales are Scots

    I do not agree with the SNP but keep your loathing to yourself and your tanks, you Sassenach
    I spend a few days away on a research project and when I get tired and log on what do I find? Yet again, this year, it's even some of the southern Tories who are standing up for democracy in Scotland! The indy debate really has changed ...
    BigG is neither southern, he lives in Wales, nor a staunch Tory, he voted for Blair twice
    FPT and o/T - but I cannot let the slur on BigG stand. Her is almost due south of me - not even SSW.
    I was born in Manchester with both English and Welsh parents as V bombs were raining over our house

    My Father ancestry going back to the 1600 is from Bolton

    My wife is a northern Scot from a fishing community

    I am not a fanatic conservative and hope Boris is seeing out his last few months in Office
    Your father’s 4,000 ancestors from 1600 are all from Bolton? Wow, that must have been some work establishing that.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 8,647
    I've had a rather angry email from someone claiming to be a reader of this site. Not a mod.

    They are asking me to stop posting the graphs.

    What do other people think?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,850

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    By the looks of the by Specimen date chart on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases it looks like we started levelling off on the 7th for the number of new cases per day.

    Near perfect Exponential curve from September 15th till then though.

    Well spotted, it does indeed. Very good news. And looking at the Testing data too it looks like there is a good amount of slack now in the testing system.
    Clutching at straws I feel.
    You seem worried that cases will start to drop, why?
    Not the first time PB Tories have insisted cases will drop, let's see.
    Yes, Alistair, that most famous of, err, Tory voters. The numbers currently look consistent with an 11 day doubling time, two weeks ago it was 7 days (hence the graph of doom). Some parts of the country are now reaching the equilibrium point where cases are no longer accelerating.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 12,176

    I've had a rather angry email from someone claiming to be a reader of this site. Not a mod.

    They are asking me to stop posting the graphs.

    What do other people think?

    Keep posting. Please!

    Who on earth would go so far as to send you an email rather than just not look at them?!
  • MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    By the looks of the by Specimen date chart on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases it looks like we started levelling off on the 7th for the number of new cases per day.

    Near perfect Exponential curve from September 15th till then though.

    Well spotted, it does indeed. Very good news. And looking at the Testing data too it looks like there is a good amount of slack now in the testing system.
    Clutching at straws I feel.
    You seem worried that cases will start to drop, why?
    Not the first time PB Tories have insisted cases will drop, let's see.
    But you give the impression you do not want them to drop for petty political reasons
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,850

    I've had a rather angry email from someone claiming to be a reader of this site. Not a mod.

    They are asking me to stop posting the graphs.

    What do other people think?

    Please keep going. They are very useful.
  • I've had a rather angry email from someone claiming to be a reader of this site. Not a mod.

    They are asking me to stop posting the graphs.

    What do other people think?

    Keep posting. None of their business.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 7,868
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I am sure the answer will be "I would follow the science"....which to the public sounds great...in reality it means 2-3 months in lockdown, not 2 weeks.
    No the answer would be 2-3 weeks! Otherwise he is calling for a second lockdown, which he is clearly not.
    And what if cases haven't stopped rising by then?
    We would still be better off (in terms of infection rates) than we would have been without the circuit break. It is not a cure or a long term fix but that doesnt mean it is not worthwhile. We dont have a cure or long term fix so partial, temporary fixes are needed.
    How do you know that?
    Because there would be fewer social interactions? Below from SAGE, doesnt sound outlandish or controversial to me.

    ----

    A “circuit-breaker”, in which a package of stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions is
    reintroduced for 2-3 weeks should act to reduce R below 1. Over a fortnight’s “break”, two
    weeks of growth could be exchanged for two weeks of decay in transmission, assuming
    good adherence to measures, and no additional increase in contacts before or after the
    break. If this were as strict and well-adhered to as the restrictions in late May, this could put
    the epidemic back by approximately 28 days or more. The amount of “time gained” is highly
    dependent on how quickly the epidemic is growing – the faster the growth or stricter the
    measures introduced, the more time gained.

    If regulations and behaviour then returned to pre-circuit break levels, there would be a
    return to exponential growth, but from a significantly lower level than would have been the
    case without the break. The deleterious impact would be maximised if they coincided with
    school holidays. Multiple circuit-breaks might be necessary to maintain low levels of
    incidence.
    The range is 3k to 107k in terms of deaths in total. How do you know?

    You've also gone from one circuit break to multiple. Is that what is being proposed?
    How do I know what? Exactly how many deaths? Of course I dont and no-one can know. Ruling out a policy because no-one can know the exact outcome is nonsense in a world of extreme uncertainty.

    I suggested scheduled circuit breaks of 2 weeks every 2 months back in the summer so I would be in favour of multiple ones. Starmer is suggesting one at the moment but I doubt he is ruling out more. SAGE are clearly open to more than 1.
    And what does that to so the economy?
    We dont know exactly! We dont know exactly what the govts tier 1-3/3+ plan does either. Should we abandon any plans because any action plan we come up with has uncertainty built in? Or accept the world is now deeply uncertain and do our best.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,850

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I am sure the answer will be "I would follow the science"....which to the public sounds great...in reality it means 2-3 months in lockdown, not 2 weeks.
    No the answer would be 2-3 weeks! Otherwise he is calling for a second lockdown, which he is clearly not.
    And what if cases haven't stopped rising by then?
    We would still be better off (in terms of infection rates) than we would have been without the circuit break. It is not a cure or a long term fix but that doesnt mean it is not worthwhile. We dont have a cure or long term fix so partial, temporary fixes are needed.
    How do you know that?
    Because there would be fewer social interactions? Below from SAGE, doesnt sound outlandish or controversial to me.

    ----

    A “circuit-breaker”, in which a package of stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions is
    reintroduced for 2-3 weeks should act to reduce R below 1. Over a fortnight’s “break”, two
    weeks of growth could be exchanged for two weeks of decay in transmission, assuming
    good adherence to measures, and no additional increase in contacts before or after the
    break. If this were as strict and well-adhered to as the restrictions in late May, this could put
    the epidemic back by approximately 28 days or more. The amount of “time gained” is highly
    dependent on how quickly the epidemic is growing – the faster the growth or stricter the
    measures introduced, the more time gained.

    If regulations and behaviour then returned to pre-circuit break levels, there would be a
    return to exponential growth, but from a significantly lower level than would have been the
    case without the break. The deleterious impact would be maximised if they coincided with
    school holidays. Multiple circuit-breaks might be necessary to maintain low levels of
    incidence.
    The range is 3k to 107k in terms of deaths in total. How do you know?

    You've also gone from one circuit break to multiple. Is that what is being proposed?
    How do I know what? Exactly how many deaths? Of course I dont and no-one can know. Ruling out a policy because no-one can know the exact outcome is nonsense in a world of extreme uncertainty.

    I suggested scheduled circuit breaks of 2 weeks every 2 months back in the summer so I would be in favour of multiple ones. Starmer is suggesting one at the moment but I doubt he is ruling out more. SAGE are clearly open to more than 1.
    And what does that to so the economy?
    We dont know exactly! We dont know exactly what the govts tier 1-3/3+ plan does either. Should we abandon any plans because any action plan we come up with has uncertainty built in? Or accept the world is now deeply uncertain and do our best.
    No we know the effect of lockdown on the economy. It's a disaster.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 25,335

    I've had a rather angry email from someone claiming to be a reader of this site. Not a mod.

    They are asking me to stop posting the graphs.

    What do other people think?

    ??

    Why?
  • IanB2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There may be differences within the Tory Party over the format of Brexit, over Cummings or the extent of Covid restrictions but one thing that unites all us Tories from Peterhead to Bournemouth is a loathing of the SNP and we will never give into them!!

    So after independence, the policy of the Conservatives will be to reconstitute the union and they will put that in their manifestos on both sides of the border?
    I can understand people disliking their opponents political philosophy, but 'loathing' seems a strong word. Why take that view; seems counter-productive to me.
    The SNP loathe the Tories, just the feeling is mutual that is all
    Speak for yourself

    This conservative does not loath the SNP or the Scots

    Most of my living family outside Wales are Scots

    I do not agree with the SNP but keep your loathing to yourself and your tanks, you Sassenach
    I spend a few days away on a research project and when I get tired and log on what do I find? Yet again, this year, it's even some of the southern Tories who are standing up for democracy in Scotland! The indy debate really has changed ...
    BigG is neither southern, he lives in Wales, nor a staunch Tory, he voted for Blair twice
    FPT and o/T - but I cannot let the slur on BigG stand. Her is almost due south of me - not even SSW.
    I was born in Manchester with both English and Welsh parents as V bombs were raining over our house

    My Father ancestry going back to the 1600 is from Bolton

    My wife is a northern Scot from a fishing community

    I am not a fanatic conservative and hope Boris is seeing out his last few months in Office
    Your father’s 4,000 ancestors from 1600 are all from Bolton? Wow, that must have been some work establishing that.
    My daughter traced our family tree through an ancestry organisation and confirmed the Bolton connection to about 1610
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 43,226

    I've had a rather angry email from someone claiming to be a reader of this site. Not a mod.

    They are asking me to stop posting the graphs.

    What do other people think?

    Keep up the good work!

    Did they give a reason for not wanting you to post the graphs?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,381
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    By the looks of the by Specimen date chart on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases it looks like we started levelling off on the 7th for the number of new cases per day.

    Near perfect Exponential curve from September 15th till then though.

    Well spotted, it does indeed. Very good news. And looking at the Testing data too it looks like there is a good amount of slack now in the testing system.
    Clutching at straws I feel.
    You seem worried that cases will start to drop, why?
    Not the first time PB Tories have insisted cases will drop, let's see.
    Yes, Alistair, that most famous of, err, Tory voters. The numbers currently look consistent with an 11 day doubling time, two weeks ago it was 7 days (hence the graph of doom). Some parts of the country are now reaching the equilibrium point where cases are no longer accelerating.
    Given the lagged effects if it currently shows as 11 it is probably more than 11 now, if we haven't hit the peak yet.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,658

    I've had a rather angry email from someone claiming to be a reader of this site. Not a mod.

    They are asking me to stop posting the graphs.

    What do other people think?

    How did they get your email?

    I very much appreciate your graphs and I think a lot of people here do.
    Yep. :+1:
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 5,900
    I am not normally in favour of bossy government, but before we go to full lockdown a simple method that is unlikely to cause huge hardship is a travel ban on all but essential or justifiable travel for two weeks, or extended if necessary with heavy fines for anyone that "does a Cummings". Why are we letting people who are in highly infected areas travel? It is reminiscent of the governments failure to stop incoming flights in the early days. I have sympathy with the Welsh First Minister on this
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 7,868

    I've had a rather angry email from someone claiming to be a reader of this site. Not a mod.

    They are asking me to stop posting the graphs.

    What do other people think?

    I like checking them from time to time but they do slow the site down when they go up. Might it be possible for them to be a link on the site somewhere? If not prefer you to keep posting them personally but can see why it might be an issue.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 8,647
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    By the looks of the by Specimen date chart on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases it looks like we started levelling off on the 7th for the number of new cases per day.

    Near perfect Exponential curve from September 15th till then though.

    Well spotted, it does indeed. Very good news. And looking at the Testing data too it looks like there is a good amount of slack now in the testing system.
    Clutching at straws I feel.
    You seem worried that cases will start to drop, why?
    Not the first time PB Tories have insisted cases will drop, let's see.
    Yes, Alistair, that most famous of, err, Tory voters. The numbers currently look consistent with an 11 day doubling time, two weeks ago it was 7 days (hence the graph of doom). Some parts of the country are now reaching the equilibrium point where cases are no longer accelerating.
    I think there are *some* indications in the data that there *may* be some levelling off.

    We obviously need more data.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 12,176

    Well, I'm not a national politician but let me have a go at answering Cyclefree's questions. A general point: I am not suggesting there is a good solution - we are looking at the best way forward from where we are now.

    1. Duration: stealing someone else's suggestion: the first two weeks in November, January, and March, then review the position.
    2. Purpose: primarily to pass through the winter without the virus exploding. But specifically to give breathing space to hospitals with fewer new admissions in the second half of the respective months (Covid generally takes a couple of weeks from requiring hospital admission). Obviously work on track&trace as hard asd possible.
    3. Yes, reduce the R, temporarily, and reduce the pressure on care services.
    4. I expect the virus to resurge in between the lockdowns, but less exponentially because of the intermissions - and because, as we've seen, people get used to being locked down and it affects behaviour in the spaces in between.The rule of 6 etc. should continue.
    5. Lots of difficult questions, which to be fair Sunak has had a fair shot at addressing, but with major gaps. I think the strategic view should be that we will seek to maintain the current structure of socierty up to next summer, by which I mean a combination of subsidies, income support, protection against eviction, and more, but also tryinhg to keep the institutions largely in place for a hoped-for recovery - everyone from pub staff/owners to ballet-dancers/companies shouldf be helped to survive, on the understanding that if no vaccine appears and the virus rages unchecked, then the subsidies won't last forever. Those who can retrain/go online/find other alternatives should be helped as much as possible.

    What does this do? It get society through the winter more or less intact. It enables individuals to pace their lives with periods of near-isolation alternating with somewhat more relaxed periods. It enables businesses to plan for periods of shutdown and organise other periods to partially compensate. It runs up substantial additional debt, which will need to be recovered in due course.

    That's my plan. Other plans are no doubt available. Perhaps other posters will take up the challenge?

    Nick, with all due respect 'It runs up substantial additional debt, which will need to be recovered in due course.' is something of an understatement....

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,598
    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    A friend just texted me to say that the pie chart on the BBC News website shows that so far there have been 29 deaths of people between the ages of 15 and 44 from Covid. To put that in context the number of people who died of an overdose of ecstasy in 2018, the last year for which full figures are available is...29.

    That's for Scotland?
    Yes, but I doubt the pattern is much different in England. FWIW 72 people under the age of 30 were victims of homicide in the same year in Scotland.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,381
    For what its worth it wouldn't surprise me even if we've not quite yet hit the peak if we don't see another doubling from here (by specimen date).
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,850

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    By the looks of the by Specimen date chart on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases it looks like we started levelling off on the 7th for the number of new cases per day.

    Near perfect Exponential curve from September 15th till then though.

    Well spotted, it does indeed. Very good news. And looking at the Testing data too it looks like there is a good amount of slack now in the testing system.
    Clutching at straws I feel.
    You seem worried that cases will start to drop, why?
    Not the first time PB Tories have insisted cases will drop, let's see.
    Yes, Alistair, that most famous of, err, Tory voters. The numbers currently look consistent with an 11 day doubling time, two weeks ago it was 7 days (hence the graph of doom). Some parts of the country are now reaching the equilibrium point where cases are no longer accelerating.
    Given the lagged effects if it currently shows as 11 it is probably more than 11 now, if we haven't hit the peak yet.
    We don't know that yet tbf, but it is encouraging.
  • I've had a rather angry email from someone claiming to be a reader of this site. Not a mod.

    They are asking me to stop posting the graphs.

    What do other people think?

    Keep posting

    Ignore it

    You are doing a great service to the site
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,958
    Good evening everyone.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 12,176

    I am not normally in favour of bossy government, but before we go to full lockdown a simple method that is unlikely to cause huge hardship is a travel ban on all but essential or justifiable travel for two weeks, or extended if necessary with heavy fines for anyone that "does a Cummings". Why are we letting people who are in highly infected areas travel? It is reminiscent of the governments failure to stop incoming flights in the early days. I have sympathy with the Welsh First Minister on this

    Not sure how it would be enforced, however - police roadblocks?

    The reality is that if people are following the guidelines, there shouldn't be a need for a travel ban.

    It is clear to me that people must be breaking them - whether out of necessity or wantonness...
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 4,580

    I've had a rather angry email from someone claiming to be a reader of this site. Not a mod.

    They are asking me to stop posting the graphs.

    What do other people think?

    The data are the single most important thing.

    We need more graphs, more equations, more technology and more statistics on pb.com

    And fewer lawyers.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 5,900

    Well, I'm not a national politician but let me have a go at answering Cyclefree's questions. A general point: I am not suggesting there is a good solution - we are looking at the best way forward from where we are now.

    1. Duration: stealing someone else's suggestion: the first two weeks in November, January, and March, then review the position.
    2. Purpose: primarily to pass through the winter without the virus exploding. But specifically to give breathing space to hospitals with fewer new admissions in the second half of the respective months (Covid generally takes a couple of weeks from requiring hospital admission). Obviously work on track&trace as hard as possible.
    3. Yes, reduce the R, temporarily, and reduce the pressure on care services.
    4. I expect the virus to resurge in between the lockdowns, but less exponentially because of the intermissions - and because, as we've seen, people get used to being locked down and it affects behaviour in the spaces in between.The rule of 6 etc. should continue.
    5. Lots of difficult questions, which to be fair Sunak has had a fair shot at addressing, but with major gaps. I think the strategic view should be that we will seek to maintain the current structure of socierty up to next summer, by which I mean a combination of subsidies, income support, protection against eviction, and more, but also tryinhg to keep the institutions largely in place for a hoped-for recovery - everyone from pub staff/owners to ballet-dancers/companies shouldf be helped to survive, on the understanding that if no vaccine appears and the virus rages unchecked, then the subsidies won't last forever. Those who can retrain/go online/find other alternatives should be helped as much as possible.

    What does this do? It gets society through the winter more or less intact. It enables individuals to pace their lives with periods of near-isolation alternating with somewhat more relaxed periods. It enables businesses to plan for periods of shutdown and organise other periods to partially compensate. It runs up substantial additional debt, which will need to be recovered in due course.

    That's my plan. Other plans are no doubt available. Perhaps other posters will take up the challenge?

    Seems quite sensible. A lot of the problem for business is uncertainty. Many service businesses could adapt to this type of change and absorb it. There also needs to be some stick to stop idiots like those seen in Liverpool recently
  • I am not normally in favour of bossy government, but before we go to full lockdown a simple method that is unlikely to cause huge hardship is a travel ban on all but essential or justifiable travel for two weeks, or extended if necessary with heavy fines for anyone that "does a Cummings". Why are we letting people who are in highly infected areas travel? It is reminiscent of the governments failure to stop incoming flights in the early days. I have sympathy with the Welsh First Minister on this

    I agree and for once agree with Drakeford
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,850

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    By the looks of the by Specimen date chart on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases it looks like we started levelling off on the 7th for the number of new cases per day.

    Near perfect Exponential curve from September 15th till then though.

    Well spotted, it does indeed. Very good news. And looking at the Testing data too it looks like there is a good amount of slack now in the testing system.
    Clutching at straws I feel.
    You seem worried that cases will start to drop, why?
    Not the first time PB Tories have insisted cases will drop, let's see.
    Yes, Alistair, that most famous of, err, Tory voters. The numbers currently look consistent with an 11 day doubling time, two weeks ago it was 7 days (hence the graph of doom). Some parts of the country are now reaching the equilibrium point where cases are no longer accelerating.
    I think there are *some* indications in the data that there *may* be some levelling off.

    We obviously need more data.
    Yes, there is still a growth in cases but it looks like it's slowing down. A worry of mine is that there's been a build up of lag in the testing system, the average number of days to reach 50% of test processed is still not going down.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 7,868
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I am sure the answer will be "I would follow the science"....which to the public sounds great...in reality it means 2-3 months in lockdown, not 2 weeks.
    No the answer would be 2-3 weeks! Otherwise he is calling for a second lockdown, which he is clearly not.
    And what if cases haven't stopped rising by then?
    We would still be better off (in terms of infection rates) than we would have been without the circuit break. It is not a cure or a long term fix but that doesnt mean it is not worthwhile. We dont have a cure or long term fix so partial, temporary fixes are needed.
    How do you know that?
    Because there would be fewer social interactions? Below from SAGE, doesnt sound outlandish or controversial to me.

    ----

    A “circuit-breaker”, in which a package of stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions is
    reintroduced for 2-3 weeks should act to reduce R below 1. Over a fortnight’s “break”, two
    weeks of growth could be exchanged for two weeks of decay in transmission, assuming
    good adherence to measures, and no additional increase in contacts before or after the
    break. If this were as strict and well-adhered to as the restrictions in late May, this could put
    the epidemic back by approximately 28 days or more. The amount of “time gained” is highly
    dependent on how quickly the epidemic is growing – the faster the growth or stricter the
    measures introduced, the more time gained.

    If regulations and behaviour then returned to pre-circuit break levels, there would be a
    return to exponential growth, but from a significantly lower level than would have been the
    case without the break. The deleterious impact would be maximised if they coincided with
    school holidays. Multiple circuit-breaks might be necessary to maintain low levels of
    incidence.
    The range is 3k to 107k in terms of deaths in total. How do you know?

    You've also gone from one circuit break to multiple. Is that what is being proposed?
    How do I know what? Exactly how many deaths? Of course I dont and no-one can know. Ruling out a policy because no-one can know the exact outcome is nonsense in a world of extreme uncertainty.

    I suggested scheduled circuit breaks of 2 weeks every 2 months back in the summer so I would be in favour of multiple ones. Starmer is suggesting one at the moment but I doubt he is ruling out more. SAGE are clearly open to more than 1.
    And what does that to so the economy?
    We dont know exactly! We dont know exactly what the govts tier 1-3/3+ plan does either. Should we abandon any plans because any action plan we come up with has uncertainty built in? Or accept the world is now deeply uncertain and do our best.
    No we know the effect of lockdown on the economy. It's a disaster.
    That is mostly, possibly completely, the impact of the virus not the lockdown.
  • rawzerrawzer Posts: 162
    nico679 said:

    Trafalgar have Trump 48 / Biden 46 in Florida

    Rasmussen have Biden by five over Trump nationally.

    FWIW

    Trafalgar doesn’t publish in-depth tables and their methodology is a mystery . You get a one page release and that’s it .
    Nate Silver thinks their methodology is to look at the other polls and switch 6 to Trump
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,850

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I am sure the answer will be "I would follow the science"....which to the public sounds great...in reality it means 2-3 months in lockdown, not 2 weeks.
    No the answer would be 2-3 weeks! Otherwise he is calling for a second lockdown, which he is clearly not.
    And what if cases haven't stopped rising by then?
    We would still be better off (in terms of infection rates) than we would have been without the circuit break. It is not a cure or a long term fix but that doesnt mean it is not worthwhile. We dont have a cure or long term fix so partial, temporary fixes are needed.
    How do you know that?
    Because there would be fewer social interactions? Below from SAGE, doesnt sound outlandish or controversial to me.

    ----

    A “circuit-breaker”, in which a package of stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions is
    reintroduced for 2-3 weeks should act to reduce R below 1. Over a fortnight’s “break”, two
    weeks of growth could be exchanged for two weeks of decay in transmission, assuming
    good adherence to measures, and no additional increase in contacts before or after the
    break. If this were as strict and well-adhered to as the restrictions in late May, this could put
    the epidemic back by approximately 28 days or more. The amount of “time gained” is highly
    dependent on how quickly the epidemic is growing – the faster the growth or stricter the
    measures introduced, the more time gained.

    If regulations and behaviour then returned to pre-circuit break levels, there would be a
    return to exponential growth, but from a significantly lower level than would have been the
    case without the break. The deleterious impact would be maximised if they coincided with
    school holidays. Multiple circuit-breaks might be necessary to maintain low levels of
    incidence.
    The range is 3k to 107k in terms of deaths in total. How do you know?

    You've also gone from one circuit break to multiple. Is that what is being proposed?
    How do I know what? Exactly how many deaths? Of course I dont and no-one can know. Ruling out a policy because no-one can know the exact outcome is nonsense in a world of extreme uncertainty.

    I suggested scheduled circuit breaks of 2 weeks every 2 months back in the summer so I would be in favour of multiple ones. Starmer is suggesting one at the moment but I doubt he is ruling out more. SAGE are clearly open to more than 1.
    And what does that to so the economy?
    We dont know exactly! We dont know exactly what the govts tier 1-3/3+ plan does either. Should we abandon any plans because any action plan we come up with has uncertainty built in? Or accept the world is now deeply uncertain and do our best.
    No we know the effect of lockdown on the economy. It's a disaster.
    That is mostly, possibly completely, the impact of the virus not the lockdown.
    I think you've got some wire crossed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,634

    The long COVID angle gets appallingly little attention. Just because you survive COVID doesn’t mean you’re out of the woods


    Long covid gets plenty of attention in some media - Guardian and newstatesman have had regular pieces on it. Guardian has a piece today about hearing problems with the virus.

    It's a nasty condition and this is a horrible virus. But one still has weigh up the costs and benefits. Can we really shut down a whole society and economy because maybe 2-5% of properly infected people (i.e. not just + cases) get symptoms that last longer than a month and an even smaller % have symptoms after several months?
    I can tell you one thing, it ain't 2 - 5%. Way higher.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,921
    Mortimer said:

    Well, I'm not a national politician but let me have a go at answering Cyclefree's questions. A general point: I am not suggesting there is a good solution - we are looking at the best way forward from where we are now.

    1. Duration: stealing someone else's suggestion: the first two weeks in November, January, and March, then review the position.
    2. Purpose: primarily to pass through the winter without the virus exploding. But specifically to give breathing space to hospitals with fewer new admissions in the second half of the respective months (Covid generally takes a couple of weeks from requiring hospital admission). Obviously work on track&trace as hard asd possible.
    3. Yes, reduce the R, temporarily, and reduce the pressure on care services.
    4. I expect the virus to resurge in between the lockdowns, but less exponentially because of the intermissions - and because, as we've seen, people get used to being locked down and it affects behaviour in the spaces in between.The rule of 6 etc. should continue.
    5. Lots of difficult questions, which to be fair Sunak has had a fair shot at addressing, but with major gaps. I think the strategic view should be that we will seek to maintain the current structure of socierty up to next summer, by which I mean a combination of subsidies, income support, protection against eviction, and more, but also tryinhg to keep the institutions largely in place for a hoped-for recovery - everyone from pub staff/owners to ballet-dancers/companies shouldf be helped to survive, on the understanding that if no vaccine appears and the virus rages unchecked, then the subsidies won't last forever. Those who can retrain/go online/find other alternatives should be helped as much as possible.

    What does this do? It get society through the winter more or less intact. It enables individuals to pace their lives with periods of near-isolation alternating with somewhat more relaxed periods. It enables businesses to plan for periods of shutdown and organise other periods to partially compensate. It runs up substantial additional debt, which will need to be recovered in due course.

    That's my plan. Other plans are no doubt available. Perhaps other posters will take up the challenge?

    Nick, with all due respect 'It runs up substantial additional debt, which will need to be recovered in due course.' is something of an understatement....

    Nick is simply retrospectively trying to turn Starmer’s purely political gambit into some kind of apparently coherent strategy for tackling the virus.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,498
    Have they considered the further jobs which will be lost because of it? The further expansion in the deficit to pay for another furlough? The fact it is unlikely to only last just 2 weeks also needs consideration
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 5,900
    Mortimer said:

    I am not normally in favour of bossy government, but before we go to full lockdown a simple method that is unlikely to cause huge hardship is a travel ban on all but essential or justifiable travel for two weeks, or extended if necessary with heavy fines for anyone that "does a Cummings". Why are we letting people who are in highly infected areas travel? It is reminiscent of the governments failure to stop incoming flights in the early days. I have sympathy with the Welsh First Minister on this

    Not sure how it would be enforced, however - police roadblocks?

    The reality is that if people are following the guidelines, there shouldn't be a need for a travel ban.

    It is clear to me that people must be breaking them - whether out of necessity or wantonness...
    A good question. I guess if the fines are heavy enough people will worry about being snitched on and it would self police for the vast majority.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    By the looks of the by Specimen date chart on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases it looks like we started levelling off on the 7th for the number of new cases per day.

    Near perfect Exponential curve from September 15th till then though.

    Well spotted, it does indeed. Very good news. And looking at the Testing data too it looks like there is a good amount of slack now in the testing system.
    Clutching at straws I feel.
    You seem worried that cases will start to drop, why?
    Not the first time PB Tories have insisted cases will drop, let's see.
    Yes, Alistair, that most famous of, err, Tory voters. The numbers currently look consistent with an 11 day doubling time, two weeks ago it was 7 days (hence the graph of doom). Some parts of the country are now reaching the equilibrium point where cases are no longer accelerating.
    I think there are *some* indications in the data that there *may* be some levelling off.

    We obviously need more data.
    Yes, there is still a growth in cases but it looks like it's slowing down. A worry of mine is that there's been a build up of lag in the testing system, the average number of days to reach 50% of test processed is still not going down.
    It's always lag in the testing system. The numbers "by date of specimen" always look like they are levelling off and indeed in the most recent days dropping. They're also vulnerable to day of the week effects.

    That's why the headline number is the number of cases newly announced that day not the number of positive specimens for any given day.

    Impossible to conclude anything definitive - certainly in a downward direction - from the cases by specimen date within a week of the date being touted as an inflection point.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,921
    edited October 14

    IanB2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There may be differences within the Tory Party over the format of Brexit, over Cummings or the extent of Covid restrictions but one thing that unites all us Tories from Peterhead to Bournemouth is a loathing of the SNP and we will never give into them!!

    So after independence, the policy of the Conservatives will be to reconstitute the union and they will put that in their manifestos on both sides of the border?
    I can understand people disliking their opponents political philosophy, but 'loathing' seems a strong word. Why take that view; seems counter-productive to me.
    The SNP loathe the Tories, just the feeling is mutual that is all
    Speak for yourself

    This conservative does not loath the SNP or the Scots

    Most of my living family outside Wales are Scots

    I do not agree with the SNP but keep your loathing to yourself and your tanks, you Sassenach
    I spend a few days away on a research project and when I get tired and log on what do I find? Yet again, this year, it's even some of the southern Tories who are standing up for democracy in Scotland! The indy debate really has changed ...
    BigG is neither southern, he lives in Wales, nor a staunch Tory, he voted for Blair twice
    FPT and o/T - but I cannot let the slur on BigG stand. Her is almost due south of me - not even SSW.
    I was born in Manchester with both English and Welsh parents as V bombs were raining over our house

    My Father ancestry going back to the 1600 is from Bolton

    My wife is a northern Scot from a fishing community

    I am not a fanatic conservative and hope Boris is seeing out his last few months in Office
    Your father’s 4,000 ancestors from 1600 are all from Bolton? Wow, that must have been some work establishing that.
    My daughter traced our family tree through an ancestry organisation and confirmed the Bolton connection to about 1610
    The estimated population of Bolton in the early 1600s is about 2,000. So I am guessing that a good proportion of your father’s ancestors came from elsewhere.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 5,900
    IanB2 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Well, I'm not a national politician but let me have a go at answering Cyclefree's questions. A general point: I am not suggesting there is a good solution - we are looking at the best way forward from where we are now.

    1. Duration: stealing someone else's suggestion: the first two weeks in November, January, and March, then review the position.
    2. Purpose: primarily to pass through the winter without the virus exploding. But specifically to give breathing space to hospitals with fewer new admissions in the second half of the respective months (Covid generally takes a couple of weeks from requiring hospital admission). Obviously work on track&trace as hard asd possible.
    3. Yes, reduce the R, temporarily, and reduce the pressure on care services.
    4. I expect the virus to resurge in between the lockdowns, but less exponentially because of the intermissions - and because, as we've seen, people get used to being locked down and it affects behaviour in the spaces in between.The rule of 6 etc. should continue.
    5. Lots of difficult questions, which to be fair Sunak has had a fair shot at addressing, but with major gaps. I think the strategic view should be that we will seek to maintain the current structure of socierty up to next summer, by which I mean a combination of subsidies, income support, protection against eviction, and more, but also tryinhg to keep the institutions largely in place for a hoped-for recovery - everyone from pub staff/owners to ballet-dancers/companies shouldf be helped to survive, on the understanding that if no vaccine appears and the virus rages unchecked, then the subsidies won't last forever. Those who can retrain/go online/find other alternatives should be helped as much as possible.

    What does this do? It get society through the winter more or less intact. It enables individuals to pace their lives with periods of near-isolation alternating with somewhat more relaxed periods. It enables businesses to plan for periods of shutdown and organise other periods to partially compensate. It runs up substantial additional debt, which will need to be recovered in due course.

    That's my plan. Other plans are no doubt available. Perhaps other posters will take up the challenge?

    Nick, with all due respect 'It runs up substantial additional debt, which will need to be recovered in due course.' is something of an understatement....

    Nick is simply retrospectively trying to turn Starmer’s purely political gambit into some kind of apparently coherent strategy for tackling the virus.
    Problem is, the man who is actually in charge cannot fit the word coherent or strategy onto the back of his fag packet.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 23,032
    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    A friend just texted me to say that the pie chart on the BBC News website shows that so far there have been 29 deaths of people between the ages of 15 and 44 from Covid. To put that in context the number of people who died of an overdose of ecstasy in 2018, the last year for which full figures are available is...29.

    That's for Scotland?
    Yes, but I doubt the pattern is much different in England. FWIW 72 people under the age of 30 were victims of homicide in the same year in Scotland.
    29 people died of an overdose of Ecstasy in Scotland in 2019? Seems high.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,272
    Apparently the Comedy Store is reopening (re-opened)....what happens when London goes Tier 2 in a few days?
This discussion has been closed.