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And the Answers Are ….? The circuit breaker proposal – politicalbetting.com

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,215

    I think Andy Burnham's position is interesting.

    Threatening to sue the government for imposing a lockdown that's not as harsh as the lockdown he supports as long as everyone gets it.

    Hmmn.

    This is the man who in the same interview argued eat out to help out was in part responsible for the spike in cases in the NW, while arguing it was unfair for the government to threaten to close pubs / restaurants because he has data to show there is limited spread via those establishments.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 7,636
    EPG said:


    Then it it never right for human society to exit lockdown, if it means more people die of influenza and other endemic illnesses.

    I'm not sure that's what I'm arguing. Covid is for some sections of the population far more dangerous than influenza and there's a reasonable argument that adapting to the virus is infinitely preferable than trying to go back to a pre-Covid existence and simply wishing it away.

    I'm of the view increased awareness of and better practice around personal health and hygiene is going to help in the medium term and reduce the cost of sickness to the whole economy but that's in the future.

    For now, the onus has to be on getting the virus under control and reducing the number of deaths.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 7,846

    I think Andy Burnham's position is interesting.

    Threatening to sue the government for imposing a lockdown that's not as harsh as the lockdown he supports as long as everyone gets it.

    Hmmn.

    He is trying to get the best deal for his constituents like any politician. If its a national lockdown business and jobs support will be more than the government are offering for a local lockdown.

    If the government think its important they should override the Mayors wishes and do it anyway, or pay what he wants. What they shouldn't do is spend weeks negotiating.
  • kicorsekicorse Posts: 400

    kicorse said:


    I know we understand lag, but you don't understand the point.

    Yes there are fuckwits but the fuckwits are the bulk of the media. If by the end of the circuit break the numbers are still going up it won't be Pearson making a big deal about it, it will be Robert Peston, Beth Rigby, Keir Starmer, Laura Kuenssberg etc

    As for the 'not long enough' factor you're not understanding the big picture. If you close things for a fortnight but then everyone goes crazy beforehand increasing R beforehand, then everyone goes crazy afterwards increasing R afterwards then what's the net effect? Plus then it depends upon what the R goes down to, 2 weeks of R at 0.9 instead of 1.1 isn't going to have a transformative impact, 2 weeks of R at 0.5 instead of 1.4 would.

    Finding a way to get R down to 1 and keep it there is what really matters rather than messing around stop/start, stop/start.

    The "everyone goes crazy" point is the first sensible argument against circuit-breakers that I've heard amongst all this noise. However, it's also an argument against the status quo of constantly changing tiers. This is about clarity and trust. Mass gatherings before/after lockdowns only started to be a problem when people lost trust in what they were being asked to do. That will be hard to regain, but something like Nick Palmer's proposal would be a good start.

    The media argument is not a serious one. This can easily be headed off by spelling out what exactly will happen and why and putting it in law, ensuring the detailed policy is associated as much with the opposition as the government (which Starmer is clearly willing to do to as long as Johnson doesn't play games), and very clearly telling the media *beforehand* that some of the key numbers won't have come down much, if at all, when lockdown is lifted, because of the lag.

    "Finding a way to get R down to 1 and keep it there is what really matters rather than messing around stop/start, stop/start" - Why on earth do you say that? What really matters is saving lives while causing as little harm to the economy and people's mental health as possible. If the way to achieve this involves having an R that fluctuates, so be it.
    Businesses can't operate on a start/stop, start/stop basis that's why.

    If pubs and restaurants are expected to throw away all their stock every other month, lose all their business for that period, then replace all their stock and get back up and running again only to have to shut all down again a little bit later . . . its madness. That's no way to operate and would need massive support. Pubs would be better off shutting until the Spring than stopping and starting like that - and that would suppress R much more.
    The madness you describe is what's already happening in many parts of the country. If businesses have certainty, they know when to buy stocks and when not to. You have just made an excellent argument in favour of circuit-breakers.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,821
    kicorse said:

    kicorse said:


    I know we understand lag, but you don't understand the point.

    Yes there are fuckwits but the fuckwits are the bulk of the media. If by the end of the circuit break the numbers are still going up it won't be Pearson making a big deal about it, it will be Robert Peston, Beth Rigby, Keir Starmer, Laura Kuenssberg etc

    As for the 'not long enough' factor you're not understanding the big picture. If you close things for a fortnight but then everyone goes crazy beforehand increasing R beforehand, then everyone goes crazy afterwards increasing R afterwards then what's the net effect? Plus then it depends upon what the R goes down to, 2 weeks of R at 0.9 instead of 1.1 isn't going to have a transformative impact, 2 weeks of R at 0.5 instead of 1.4 would.

    Finding a way to get R down to 1 and keep it there is what really matters rather than messing around stop/start, stop/start.

    The "everyone goes crazy" point is the first sensible argument against circuit-breakers that I've heard amongst all this noise. However, it's also an argument against the status quo of constantly changing tiers. This is about clarity and trust. Mass gatherings before/after lockdowns only started to be a problem when people lost trust in what they were being asked to do. That will be hard to regain, but something like Nick Palmer's proposal would be a good start.

    The media argument is not a serious one. This can easily be headed off by spelling out what exactly will happen and why and putting it in law, ensuring the detailed policy is associated as much with the opposition as the government (which Starmer is clearly willing to do to as long as Johnson doesn't play games), and very clearly telling the media *beforehand* that some of the key numbers won't have come down much, if at all, when lockdown is lifted, because of the lag.

    "Finding a way to get R down to 1 and keep it there is what really matters rather than messing around stop/start, stop/start" - Why on earth do you say that? What really matters is saving lives while causing as little harm to the economy and people's mental health as possible. If the way to achieve this involves having an R that fluctuates, so be it.
    Businesses can't operate on a start/stop, start/stop basis that's why.

    If pubs and restaurants are expected to throw away all their stock every other month, lose all their business for that period, then replace all their stock and get back up and running again only to have to shut all down again a little bit later . . . its madness. That's no way to operate and would need massive support. Pubs would be better off shutting until the Spring than stopping and starting like that - and that would suppress R much more.
    The madness you describe is what's already happening in many parts of the country. If businesses have certainty, they know when to buy stocks and when not to. You have just made an excellent argument in favour of circuit-breakers.
    Companies can't simply turn off for two weeks.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,308
    Cyclefree do you mind if I ask where the £1300 figure comes from? The media keep saying £3000
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,821
    Cyclefree said:

    If they pay me 1 days fee at that rate I can advise them where they can make some future savings on their consultancy costs.......
    This makes me so mad.

    If this part of the world is put under Tier 3 restrictions and Daughter’s business is closed for a month, the maximum help it would get would be £1,300.

    That would cover one month’s rent and part only of a month’s electricity. Bear in mind that freezers need to be kept on.

    How could water, wi-fi, telephone, insurance, the rest of the electricity bill be paid for?

    Let alone employees’ wages (the 34% the Chancellor won’t help with), NI, pension contributions etc?

    It can’t.

    That’s a closed business in debt right there from Day 1.

    And for businesses under Tier 2 restrictions, turnover is down 70%. That’s not viable.

    As it is while business has been reasonably ok until now, this week it has gone very quiet.

    So unless the government changes its mind over support, the hospitality sector will be - bluntly - closed long before Xmas. Indeed, that is what she is expecting to do - unless her landlord is willing to forego his income from the business.

    That means:-

    - a landlord without an income;
    - a community pub that has been on the site for centuries closed;
    - 4 people unemployed: one is a mother of three, who is the main breadwinner, one is a man whose son committed suicide earlier this year and one is a highly trained chef. Two young school aged trainees who help out from time to time will also lose the opportunity to work, earn and gain experience;
    - Local suppliers losing a customer.

    And bear in mind that this is a business which made a profit last year and increased turnover by 60% in its first year of business. Of course, it’s bloody viable.

    My daughter is heartbroken at the prospect. As am I.

    Don’t tell me the government cannot afford to provide help when it is spending stupendous amounts on consultants and dodgy contracts with companies which appeared overnight and which have not delivered.
    That's absolutely horrible. The government has never seemed as remote as it does right now. There just doesn't seem to be any way through unless you're part of the chumocracy.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,308
    kicorse said:

    kicorse said:


    I know we understand lag, but you don't understand the point.

    Yes there are fuckwits but the fuckwits are the bulk of the media. If by the end of the circuit break the numbers are still going up it won't be Pearson making a big deal about it, it will be Robert Peston, Beth Rigby, Keir Starmer, Laura Kuenssberg etc

    As for the 'not long enough' factor you're not understanding the big picture. If you close things for a fortnight but then everyone goes crazy beforehand increasing R beforehand, then everyone goes crazy afterwards increasing R afterwards then what's the net effect? Plus then it depends upon what the R goes down to, 2 weeks of R at 0.9 instead of 1.1 isn't going to have a transformative impact, 2 weeks of R at 0.5 instead of 1.4 would.

    Finding a way to get R down to 1 and keep it there is what really matters rather than messing around stop/start, stop/start.

    The "everyone goes crazy" point is the first sensible argument against circuit-breakers that I've heard amongst all this noise. However, it's also an argument against the status quo of constantly changing tiers. This is about clarity and trust. Mass gatherings before/after lockdowns only started to be a problem when people lost trust in what they were being asked to do. That will be hard to regain, but something like Nick Palmer's proposal would be a good start.

    The media argument is not a serious one. This can easily be headed off by spelling out what exactly will happen and why and putting it in law, ensuring the detailed policy is associated as much with the opposition as the government (which Starmer is clearly willing to do to as long as Johnson doesn't play games), and very clearly telling the media *beforehand* that some of the key numbers won't have come down much, if at all, when lockdown is lifted, because of the lag.

    "Finding a way to get R down to 1 and keep it there is what really matters rather than messing around stop/start, stop/start" - Why on earth do you say that? What really matters is saving lives while causing as little harm to the economy and people's mental health as possible. If the way to achieve this involves having an R that fluctuates, so be it.
    Businesses can't operate on a start/stop, start/stop basis that's why.

    If pubs and restaurants are expected to throw away all their stock every other month, lose all their business for that period, then replace all their stock and get back up and running again only to have to shut all down again a little bit later . . . its madness. That's no way to operate and would need massive support. Pubs would be better off shutting until the Spring than stopping and starting like that - and that would suppress R much more.
    The madness you describe is what's already happening in many parts of the country. If businesses have certainty, they know when to buy stocks and when not to. You have just made an excellent argument in favour of circuit-breakers.
    Not true. The only place shut down so far is Merseyside - and that's been done for a minimum of 4 weeks not 2.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 1,806

    Twitter is actively preventing links to an NY Post story about Biden's son from being tweeted.

    Talk about counterproductive....
    The story is boring anyway, just too convoluted. It’s essentially a rehash of what we’ve already had, with a few emails.
    Of course, I’m sure you would have the same view if it was all the same facts but with the name Biden changed to Trump
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 7,846
    MaxPB said:

    kicorse said:

    kicorse said:


    I know we understand lag, but you don't understand the point.

    Yes there are fuckwits but the fuckwits are the bulk of the media. If by the end of the circuit break the numbers are still going up it won't be Pearson making a big deal about it, it will be Robert Peston, Beth Rigby, Keir Starmer, Laura Kuenssberg etc

    As for the 'not long enough' factor you're not understanding the big picture. If you close things for a fortnight but then everyone goes crazy beforehand increasing R beforehand, then everyone goes crazy afterwards increasing R afterwards then what's the net effect? Plus then it depends upon what the R goes down to, 2 weeks of R at 0.9 instead of 1.1 isn't going to have a transformative impact, 2 weeks of R at 0.5 instead of 1.4 would.

    Finding a way to get R down to 1 and keep it there is what really matters rather than messing around stop/start, stop/start.

    The "everyone goes crazy" point is the first sensible argument against circuit-breakers that I've heard amongst all this noise. However, it's also an argument against the status quo of constantly changing tiers. This is about clarity and trust. Mass gatherings before/after lockdowns only started to be a problem when people lost trust in what they were being asked to do. That will be hard to regain, but something like Nick Palmer's proposal would be a good start.

    The media argument is not a serious one. This can easily be headed off by spelling out what exactly will happen and why and putting it in law, ensuring the detailed policy is associated as much with the opposition as the government (which Starmer is clearly willing to do to as long as Johnson doesn't play games), and very clearly telling the media *beforehand* that some of the key numbers won't have come down much, if at all, when lockdown is lifted, because of the lag.

    "Finding a way to get R down to 1 and keep it there is what really matters rather than messing around stop/start, stop/start" - Why on earth do you say that? What really matters is saving lives while causing as little harm to the economy and people's mental health as possible. If the way to achieve this involves having an R that fluctuates, so be it.
    Businesses can't operate on a start/stop, start/stop basis that's why.

    If pubs and restaurants are expected to throw away all their stock every other month, lose all their business for that period, then replace all their stock and get back up and running again only to have to shut all down again a little bit later . . . its madness. That's no way to operate and would need massive support. Pubs would be better off shutting until the Spring than stopping and starting like that - and that would suppress R much more.
    The madness you describe is what's already happening in many parts of the country. If businesses have certainty, they know when to buy stocks and when not to. You have just made an excellent argument in favour of circuit-breakers.
    Companies can't simply turn off for two weeks.
    In large parts Europe businesses turn off for a few weeks in the summer every year. Of course it is perfectly manageable and easier to plan for than the current situation for a bar now, where any day they might lose 70% of their trade, or might be shut down, but alternatively that might not happen at all.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 1,806

    Twitter is actively preventing links to an NY Post story about Biden's son from being tweeted.

    I have to say it is rather funny that certain outlets are immediately going on are the documents fake, how did they get them, was it illegal...where as trump tax returns, all good, no twitter verification needed and no need to worry about how they obtained them.
    Also don’t forget Joe has decided to take a day off campaigning today. What a coincidence.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,215
    edited October 14
    The Biden story is something, because it connects hin directly to his son's dodgy directorships....but compared to Team Trump, it pales into insignificance.

    Its like Biden's weird actions like head sniffing, in normal times that could be a big deal...but the overton window has shifted so far where the president dirty laundry list is the size of war and peace.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 7,846
    Alistair said:
    Presumably they have to win the senate for that? Good luck with that plan.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 7,793

    Fresh from some sectarian dog whistling, Effie is on a fake polls jag.

    She also reposted this - I know Alex Massie doesn't like the idea of indy, but this is rather unfair. From one ofi Mr Galloway's mob, too.

  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 2,635
    MrEd said:

    Twitter is actively preventing links to an NY Post story about Biden's son from being tweeted.

    I have to say it is rather funny that certain outlets are immediately going on are the documents fake, how did they get them, was it illegal...where as trump tax returns, all good, no twitter verification needed and no need to worry about how they obtained them.
    Also don’t forget Joe has decided to take a day off campaigning today. What a coincidence.
    How much of his 10.4-point national lead do you suppose it will cost him?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,906

    MaxPB said:

    kicorse said:

    kicorse said:


    I know we understand lag, but you don't understand the point.

    Yes there are fuckwits but the fuckwits are the bulk of the media. If by the end of the circuit break the numbers are still going up it won't be Pearson making a big deal about it, it will be Robert Peston, Beth Rigby, Keir Starmer, Laura Kuenssberg etc

    As for the 'not long enough' factor you're not understanding the big picture. If you close things for a fortnight but then everyone goes crazy beforehand increasing R beforehand, then everyone goes crazy afterwards increasing R afterwards then what's the net effect? Plus then it depends upon what the R goes down to, 2 weeks of R at 0.9 instead of 1.1 isn't going to have a transformative impact, 2 weeks of R at 0.5 instead of 1.4 would.

    Finding a way to get R down to 1 and keep it there is what really matters rather than messing around stop/start, stop/start.

    The "everyone goes crazy" point is the first sensible argument against circuit-breakers that I've heard amongst all this noise. However, it's also an argument against the status quo of constantly changing tiers. This is about clarity and trust. Mass gatherings before/after lockdowns only started to be a problem when people lost trust in what they were being asked to do. That will be hard to regain, but something like Nick Palmer's proposal would be a good start.

    The media argument is not a serious one. This can easily be headed off by spelling out what exactly will happen and why and putting it in law, ensuring the detailed policy is associated as much with the opposition as the government (which Starmer is clearly willing to do to as long as Johnson doesn't play games), and very clearly telling the media *beforehand* that some of the key numbers won't have come down much, if at all, when lockdown is lifted, because of the lag.

    "Finding a way to get R down to 1 and keep it there is what really matters rather than messing around stop/start, stop/start" - Why on earth do you say that? What really matters is saving lives while causing as little harm to the economy and people's mental health as possible. If the way to achieve this involves having an R that fluctuates, so be it.
    Businesses can't operate on a start/stop, start/stop basis that's why.

    If pubs and restaurants are expected to throw away all their stock every other month, lose all their business for that period, then replace all their stock and get back up and running again only to have to shut all down again a little bit later . . . its madness. That's no way to operate and would need massive support. Pubs would be better off shutting until the Spring than stopping and starting like that - and that would suppress R much more.
    The madness you describe is what's already happening in many parts of the country. If businesses have certainty, they know when to buy stocks and when not to. You have just made an excellent argument in favour of circuit-breakers.
    Companies can't simply turn off for two weeks.
    In large parts Europe businesses turn off for a few weeks in the summer every year. Of course it is perfectly manageable and easier to plan for than the current situation for a bar now, where any day they might lose 70% of their trade, or might be shut down, but alternatively that might not happen at all.
    In Italy it’s called August.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 18,327

    The Biden story is something, because it connects hin directly to his son's dodgy directorships....but compared to Team Trump, it pales into insignificance.

    The Biden story is certainly something because he flat said he never discussed his sons business dealings but if he met one of his son's business associates then that would strain credulity.

    But ultimately it is a process stories are process stories are boring as shit.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 1,806

    The Biden story is something, because it connects hin directly to his son's dodgy directorships....but compared to Team Trump, it pales into insignificance.

    Why’s that? Son of then VP gets access to VP for Ukrainian associate from whom he is taking money. VP, now Presidential candidate, denies it ever took place. Now evidence emerges that he did. Contorted non-denial follows.

    Either Biden deliberately lied or he forgot, in which case there are legitimate questions about his facilities.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,649
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    800 to 107,000.

    How can any serious policy decisions be made from this kind predictive modelling.

    If it wasn't so fucking serious I'd actually be laughing my head off.

    What is the predictive modelling range for the govt decision? Or for your preferred policies?

    They will be similarly wide if SAGE considered them because there is a load of uncertainty!

    We cant discount policies simply because of uncertainty that will be relevant whatever policy we seek to consider.
    0.8-107k it's a joke. It's a prediction that had precisely zero value. We can assume the cost of the two week lockdown is a constant (X) and people saved is a variable (y), the equation the politicians have to make the decision on is cost per person saved, it's how the NHS already operates. If y = 107k then there is a clear and obvious basis for the policy, if y is 800 then there isn't. It also won't follow a perfect bell either so I'd be interested to see what the most likely outcome is after running the simulation a few hundred thousand times.
    Perhaps the advanced simulation model used looks like this

    10 a = RND(65000000)
    20 b = RND(65000000)
    30 PRINT "RANGE IS ",a, " TO ", b

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 43,213
    Where a Crown Dependency does not agree to enact a treaty which has been agreed to by the UK in a way which requires the Crown Dependencies to comply, this would be a de facto unilateral declaration of independence.

    https://factcheckergsy.wordpress.com/2020/10/14/fisheries-and-permissive-extent-clauses/#comments
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,628

    The Biden story is something, because it connects hin directly to his son's dodgy directorships....but compared to Team Trump, it pales into insignificance.

    Its like Biden's weird actions like head sniffing, in normal times that could be a big deal...but the overton window has shifted so far where the president dirty laundry list is the size of war and peace.

    How many Dems in the huge vote queues in Georgia are going to tick that box for Trump after waiting for 8 hours because of new Hunter Biden revelations :p ?
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,121
    edited October 14
    MrEd said:

    Twitter is actively preventing links to an NY Post story about Biden's son from being tweeted.

    Talk about counterproductive....
    The story is boring anyway, just too convoluted. It’s essentially a rehash of what we’ve already had, with a few emails.
    Of course, I’m sure you would have the same view if it was all the same facts but with the name Biden changed to Trump
    Aren't you guilty of the same thing though? Would you tolerate the crassness of Trump if Biden did it?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 18,844

    I think the frustrating thing is how few journalists seem to be asking the sort of questions Cyclefree asks in the thread header.

    That’s because I am an investigator and have spent life asking questions. Far too many journalists act like PR messengers or spout opinions rather than actually do any real investigating.

    Why don’t any politicians ask such questions? I’m not some sort of genius in dreaming these up. Anyone of us here could have done so and plenty have. So why are others so feeble at asking the bleeding obvious.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 1,806

    MrEd said:

    Twitter is actively preventing links to an NY Post story about Biden's son from being tweeted.

    I have to say it is rather funny that certain outlets are immediately going on are the documents fake, how did they get them, was it illegal...where as trump tax returns, all good, no twitter verification needed and no need to worry about how they obtained them.
    Also don’t forget Joe has decided to take a day off campaigning today. What a coincidence.
    How much of his 10.4-point national lead do you suppose it will cost him?
    I don’t know. What do you reckon?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,649
    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    If they pay me 1 days fee at that rate I can advise them where they can make some future savings on their consultancy costs.......
    This makes me so mad.

    If this part of the world is put under Tier 3 restrictions and Daughter’s business is closed for a month, the maximum help it would get would be £1,300.

    That would cover one month’s rent and part only of a month’s electricity. Bear in mind that freezers need to be kept on.

    How could water, wi-fi, telephone, insurance, the rest of the electricity bill be paid for?

    Let alone employees’ wages (the 34% the Chancellor won’t help with), NI, pension contributions etc?

    It can’t.

    That’s a closed business in debt right there from Day 1.

    And for businesses under Tier 2 restrictions, turnover is down 70%. That’s not viable.

    As it is while business has been reasonably ok until now, this week it has gone very quiet.

    So unless the government changes its mind over support, the hospitality sector will be - bluntly - closed long before Xmas. Indeed, that is what she is expecting to do - unless her landlord is willing to forego his income from the business.

    That means:-

    - a landlord without an income;
    - a community pub that has been on the site for centuries closed;
    - 4 people unemployed: one is a mother of three, who is the main breadwinner, one is a man whose son committed suicide earlier this year and one is a highly trained chef. Two young school aged trainees who help out from time to time will also lose the opportunity to work, earn and gain experience;
    - Local suppliers losing a customer.

    And bear in mind that this is a business which made a profit last year and increased turnover by 60% in its first year of business. Of course, it’s bloody viable.

    My daughter is heartbroken at the prospect. As am I.

    Don’t tell me the government cannot afford to provide help when it is spending stupendous amounts on consultants and dodgy contracts with companies which appeared overnight and which have not delivered.
    That's absolutely horrible. The government has never seemed as remote as it does right now. There just doesn't seem to be any way through unless you're part of the chumocracy.
    We have gone back to the days of smoke-filled rooms and the Old Boy Network...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 38,316
    Cyclefree said:

    If they pay me 1 days fee at that rate I can advise them where they can make some future savings on their consultancy costs.......
    This makes me so mad.

    If this part of the world is put under Tier 3 restrictions and Daughter’s business is closed for a month, the maximum help it would get would be £1,300.

    That would cover one month’s rent and part only of a month’s electricity. Bear in mind that freezers need to be kept on.

    How could water, wi-fi, telephone, insurance, the rest of the electricity bill be paid for?

    Let alone employees’ wages (the 34% the Chancellor won’t help with), NI, pension contributions etc?

    It can’t.

    That’s a closed business in debt right there from Day 1.

    And for businesses under Tier 2 restrictions, turnover is down 70%. That’s not viable.

    As it is while business has been reasonably ok until now, this week it has gone very quiet.

    So unless the government changes its mind over support, the hospitality sector will be - bluntly - closed long before Xmas. Indeed, that is what she is expecting to do - unless her landlord is willing to forego his income from the business.

    That means:-

    - a landlord without an income;
    - a community pub that has been on the site for centuries closed;
    - 4 people unemployed: one is a mother of three, who is the main breadwinner, one is a man whose son committed suicide earlier this year and one is a highly trained chef. Two young school aged trainees who help out from time to time will also lose the opportunity to work, earn and gain experience;
    - Local suppliers losing a customer.

    And bear in mind that this is a business which made a profit last year and increased turnover by 60% in its first year of business. Of course, it’s bloody viable.

    My daughter is heartbroken at the prospect. As am I.

    Don’t tell me the government cannot afford to provide help when it is spending stupendous amounts on consultants and dodgy contracts with companies which appeared overnight and which have not delivered.
    This is terrible, Cyclefree. My heart goes out to you and your daughter.

    Have you written to your MP, the local paper and even directly to Rishi?

    These things can have an impact. As do your thread headers on here - which I know many MPs read.

    In the meantime, I really hope the landlord can be reasonable and put it into abeyance for a few months - it'll be better for him/her in the long-term if there's a viable business next year to draw rent from.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,215
    Alistair said:

    The Biden story is something, because it connects hin directly to his son's dodgy directorships....but compared to Team Trump, it pales into insignificance.

    The Biden story is certainly something because he flat said he never discussed his sons business dealings but if he met one of his son's business associates then that would strain credulity.

    But ultimately it is a process stories are process stories are boring as shit.
    I am shocked to find out a life long US politician acts like a life long US politician.....
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,097
    Londoners just won't obey these rules.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 13,311
    Scott_xP said:
    He was screwed since he paraded himself in that red bus. The Cummings episode was just a jolt to those who had forgotten his history what an amoral piece of shit we'd just elected as prime minister
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,097
    And if they do obey these rules it means the bankruptcy of much of London's hospitality industry
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,215
    LadyG said:

    Londoners just won't obey these rules.

    Well build a wall around the M25 and make them pay for it ;-)
  • Cyclefree said:

    I think the frustrating thing is how few journalists seem to be asking the sort of questions Cyclefree asks in the thread header.

    That’s because I am an investigator and have spent life asking questions. Far too many journalists act like PR messengers or spout opinions rather than actually do any real investigating.

    Why don’t any politicians ask such questions? I’m not some sort of genius in dreaming these up. Anyone of us here could have done so and plenty have. So why are others so feeble at asking the bleeding obvious.
    Frankly Cyclefree our journalists and presenters are out of their depth in this crisis and I do wonder if 'gotcha' moments are all they think about

    Your thread is perfect and poses all the correct questions

    Thank you for your thoughts and it is a shame we could not nominate you on behalf of PB to put these questions to Starmer and labour
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 4,656

    The Biden story is something, because it connects hin directly to his son's dodgy directorships....but compared to Team Trump, it pales into insignificance.

    Its like Biden's weird actions like head sniffing, in normal times that could be a big deal...but the overton window has shifted so far where the president dirty laundry list is the size of war and peace.

    Biden's (alleged) corruption was when he was in public office. Trump's (alleged) corruption wasn't.

    If I was a US voter I'd go with the guy I know and don't trust an inch, rather than the guy I don't know and don't trust an inch.

    However I think it's reasonably clear that Biden will win.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 8,599
    Omnium said:

    The Biden story is something, because it connects hin directly to his son's dodgy directorships....but compared to Team Trump, it pales into insignificance.

    Its like Biden's weird actions like head sniffing, in normal times that could be a big deal...but the overton window has shifted so far where the president dirty laundry list is the size of war and peace.

    Biden's (alleged) corruption was when he was in public office. Trump's (alleged) corruption wasn't.

    If I was a US voter I'd go with the guy I know and don't trust an inch, rather than the guy I don't know and don't trust an inch.

    However I think it's reasonably clear that Biden will win.
    Biden's stuff - if true - is just standard operating procedure in US politics.

    Trump....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 38,316
    Where the madness of Woke ends - it just gets so nasty and the anti-racism ends up turning into (you guessed it) racism:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-54536187
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,906
    Carnyx said:

    Fresh from some sectarian dog whistling, Effie is on a fake polls jag.

    She also reposted this - I know Alex Massie doesn't like the idea of indy, but this is rather unfair. From one ofi Mr Galloway's mob, too.

    The Massie article is well written and argued.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,866
    MrEd said:

    Twitter is actively preventing links to an NY Post story about Biden's son from being tweeted.

    Talk about counterproductive....
    The story is boring anyway, just too convoluted. It’s essentially a rehash of what we’ve already had, with a few emails.
    Of course, I’m sure you would have the same view if it was all the same facts but with the name Biden changed to Trump
    Trump’s attempt to get the Justice Dept to manufacture an October surprise for him just whiffed:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/barr-unmasking-review-no-charges/2020/10/13/0f63fd2e-0d67-11eb-8074-0e943a91bf08_story.html

    So I guess they had to find another straw to grasp.

    The current administration’s corruption of Justice has been a disgrace.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,649
    edited October 14
    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:
    He was screwed since he paraded himself in that red bus. The Cummings episode was just a jolt to those who had forgotten his history what an amoral piece of shit we'd just elected as prime minister
    You can see why they do not want to be accountable to any form of supranational body. The clique would stand to lose billions.

    IMO, we have allowed a Kleptocracy to govern. No wonder so many Russians like London :D
  • MrEd said:

    The Biden story is something, because it connects hin directly to his son's dodgy directorships....but compared to Team Trump, it pales into insignificance.

    Why’s that? Son of then VP gets access to VP for Ukrainian associate from whom he is taking money. VP, now Presidential candidate, denies it ever took place. Now evidence emerges that he did. Contorted non-denial follows.

    Either Biden deliberately lied or he forgot, in which case there are legitimate questions about his facilities.
    Maybe this is one of the problems you create by putting someone like Trump into any kind of office.

    Things like that - even if true - just don't seem to matter anymore.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,076

    Fresh from some sectarian dog whistling, Effie is on a fake polls jag.

    She should let Kevin Hague know. He thinks the poll is terrible news for 'separatists'.
  • LadyG said:

    And if they do obey these rules it means the bankruptcy of much of London's hospitality industry

    It's the perfect preparation for a sustained no deal Brexit.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,097

    LadyG said:

    Londoners just won't obey these rules.

    Well build a wall around the M25 and make them pay for it ;-)
    I just don't see how this can be enforced. Are the police going to check every restaurant diner to see if they are in the same household?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,215

    Where the madness of Woke ends - it just gets so nasty and the anti-racism ends up turning into (you guessed it) racism:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-54536187

    "I have been told 'keep to your white company' and 'we're going to take his black card off him'," Matt says.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 1,806
    I’m probably wrong but I don’t think I’ve said Trump’s dealings are a non-story (at which point, you will probably find a post where I did...) So no, I wouldn’t.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,866
    Cyclefree said:

    If they pay me 1 days fee at that rate I can advise them where they can make some future savings on their consultancy costs.......
    This makes me so mad.

    If this part of the world is put under Tier 3 restrictions and Daughter’s business is closed for a month, the maximum help it would get would be £1,300.

    That would cover one month’s rent and part only of a month’s electricity. Bear in mind that freezers need to be kept on.

    How could water, wi-fi, telephone, insurance, the rest of the electricity bill be paid for?

    Let alone employees’ wages (the 34% the Chancellor won’t help with), NI, pension contributions etc?

    It can’t.

    That’s a closed business in debt right there from Day 1.

    And for businesses under Tier 2 restrictions, turnover is down 70%. That’s not viable.

    As it is while business has been reasonably ok until now, this week it has gone very quiet.

    So unless the government changes its mind over support, the hospitality sector will be - bluntly - closed long before Xmas. Indeed, that is what she is expecting to do - unless her landlord is willing to forego his income from the business.

    That means:-

    - a landlord without an income;
    - a community pub that has been on the site for centuries closed;
    - 4 people unemployed: one is a mother of three, who is the main breadwinner, one is a man whose son committed suicide earlier this year and one is a highly trained chef. Two young school aged trainees who help out from time to time will also lose the opportunity to work, earn and gain experience;
    - Local suppliers losing a customer.

    And bear in mind that this is a business which made a profit last year and increased turnover by 60% in its first year of business. Of course, it’s bloody viable.

    My daughter is heartbroken at the prospect. As am I.

    Don’t tell me the government cannot afford to provide help when it is spending stupendous amounts on consultants and dodgy contracts with companies which appeared overnight and which have not delivered.
    They need to sort out the treatment of the hospitality sector fast.
    As you say, there are otherwise many viable businesses government action is going to shutter.

    I truly hope it works out for you, Cyclefree.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 7,793
    IanB2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    Fresh from some sectarian dog whistling, Effie is on a fake polls jag.

    She also reposted this - I know Alex Massie doesn't like the idea of indy, but this is rather unfair. From one ofi Mr Galloway's mob, too.

    The Massie article is well written and argued.
    It is interesting. I recommended it on the previous thread.
  • When C-19 levels were high and rising in London we got a national lock down with huge support for business to survive.

    When C-19 levels are high and rising in the north we get a regional lock down with minimal support for business to survive.
  • When C-19 levels were high and rising in London we got a national lock down with huge support for business to survive.

    When C-19 levels are high and rising in the north we get a regional lock down with minimal support for business to survive.

    It's a shit show.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 5,780
    MrEd said:

    Twitter is actively preventing links to an NY Post story about Biden's son from being tweeted.

    Talk about counterproductive....
    The story is boring anyway, just too convoluted. It’s essentially a rehash of what we’ve already had, with a few emails.
    Of course, I’m sure you would have the same view if it was all the same facts but with the name Biden changed to Trump
    Yup. If you read my posts I am one of the most sceptical on PB that stories of this nature ever matter much, regardless of where they come from. Hell, I even poured cold water on the Cummings story. I was wrong about that one!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 38,316

    Where the madness of Woke ends - it just gets so nasty and the anti-racism ends up turning into (you guessed it) racism:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-54536187

    "I have been told 'keep to your white company' and 'we're going to take his black card off him'," Matt says.
    I know, it's mad, isn't it?

    The only thing I know for sure is that, despite what he feels forced to say in public, that he'll agree it's crazy in private.

    It will turn him against Woke for good.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 8,599
    edited October 14
    guybrush said:

    Balrog said:

    The Government have to choose which bad headline they want.

    They can either have one about overpaid consultants or they can have one about track & trace being a complete and abject failure.

    Admittedly they might conspire to get both if they don't resource /scope/sponsor it properly but capping the market when they need skilled and urgent resources in an emergency situation is a recipe for disaster.
    What experience do BCG have of managing pandemics?
    I don't carry any card for BCG - it's not a consultant I've worked for or with - but they will have highly capable and experienced people in data interrogation, analysis and complex project and portfolio management who've got a track record of quick delivery in very urgent environments.

    The public sector simply won't have the number of required resources or skills to do it - and they pay poor salaries, typically 30-40% below what the best people can get in the private sector and don't operate at anything like the same velocity - so are left with little source but to temporarily bring consultants in if they want to get it done.
    I am sure they have capable people and certainly more capable than Harding. Over reliance on senior people without a long term stake in a project is a very bad plan though. The track record of govt IT and overpaid consultants makes it pretty clear it is an ineffective policy.
    To be fair a lot of that is down to ever changing scope and very bad sponsorship (something only the Government can control) but it will always be the consultants that take the blame.

    Don't get me wrong - I don't expect anyone to have much sympathy. No-one much likes consultants and they are very expensive. Far too many are overpaid and useless too. But there are also some exceptional people in there who are very very good.

    Ultimately that's why they can command the high salaries and high rates.
    The most capable people I have met in business are management consultants so I dont have a problem with consultants generally. It is at the top tier where it is pointless and the biggest waste of money. BCG wont have control over strategy, or be responsible for success or failure. Their senior people are mostly there to sell the services of consultants lower down the food chain.

    The strategy is decided by a small cohort of politicians and bureaucrats based on politics. It is then changed several times as the politics changes. There is no point paying fortunes to strategy consultants for each iteration.
    The most important thing in being a consultant is to allow yourself to be used as a target to resolve internal disputes that are blocking progress. More than once I have been told what the "answer" is and my job is to deliver it as an outsider. That is what they paid me for.
    Just how many people here are consultants? (I confess to being one.)

    Consultants are useful at a time like this since there is a need to build/scale capability quickly and the civil service/HMG does have some good people but it would be hard to pull together at speed without crashing other bits of the public sector.

    Having said which, I am surprised they are using BCG. This isn't a strategy assignment, its delivery , and even if you went to the big brand names you would expect to be paying several times less than £7k a day for very good people.
    As a newly minted member of the consulting profession, agree with everything that's been said on the subject.

    Mystified as anyone as to why BCG are on this. Surely we pay senior civil servants and politicians to make the strategic calls. Consultants can help with management and implementation, ideally in the short term.

    A someone who has done a fair bit of consultancy - the best (and worst) feature is that you can come in, and smash the place up. The question is whether what you are breaking is valuable, or shite.

    I have often worked on a project where the project was

    - The sensible thing to do
    - Utterly and totally opposed by everyone involved from the company.

    Opposed because it meant all their nice little rice bowls would get smashed......

    You are assuming the rice bowls i question aren't strategic rice bowls.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 7,846
    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    Londoners just won't obey these rules.

    Well build a wall around the M25 and make them pay for it ;-)
    I just don't see how this can be enforced. Are the police going to check every restaurant diner to see if they are in the same household?
    They could still be separate households and in a bubble, or an office working lunch.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,215
    I convinced now that his mates aren't in power, his sources for stories consists of asking a magic 8 ball questions.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 86,790
    edited October 14
    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    Londoners just won't obey these rules.

    Well build a wall around the M25 and make them pay for it ;-)
    I just don't see how this can be enforced. Are the police going to check every restaurant diner to see if they are in the same household?
    The rozzers are planning on only enforcing it for the most egregious examples, 150 people at a wedding, that kind of stuff.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 7,846

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    Londoners just won't obey these rules.

    Well build a wall around the M25 and make them pay for it ;-)
    I just don't see how this can be enforced. Are the police going to check every restaurant diner to see if they are in the same household?
    The rozzers are planning on only enforcing it for the most egregious examples, you 150 people at a wedding, that kind of stuff.
    If you can afford 150 people at a wedding you can afford the potential 10k fine.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 18,327

    MrEd said:

    The Biden story is something, because it connects hin directly to his son's dodgy directorships....but compared to Team Trump, it pales into insignificance.

    Why’s that? Son of then VP gets access to VP for Ukrainian associate from whom he is taking money. VP, now Presidential candidate, denies it ever took place. Now evidence emerges that he did. Contorted non-denial follows.

    Either Biden deliberately lied or he forgot, in which case there are legitimate questions about his facilities.
    Maybe this is one of the problems you create by putting someone like Trump into any kind of office.

    Things like that - even if true - just don't seem to matter anymore.
    The Senate recently confirmed that Manafort was acting as a go between for the Russia intelligence service to pay off debts to russian businessmen and no one gave a shit.

    Biden talks to son should be a big story but barely makes the level of background noise of corruption that the Trump campaign throws up.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,649
    IanB2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    Fresh from some sectarian dog whistling, Effie is on a fake polls jag.

    twitter.com/Effiedeans/status/1316392274717220864?s=20

    She also reposted this - I know Alex Massie doesn't like the idea of indy, but this is rather unfair. From one ofi Mr Galloway's mob, too.

    twitter.com/Jamie_Blackett/status/1316408093958430721
    The Massie article is well written and argued.
    I agree. :+1:
  • Where the madness of Woke ends - it just gets so nasty and the anti-racism ends up turning into (you guessed it) racism:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-54536187

    "I have been told 'keep to your white company' and 'we're going to take his black card off him'," Matt says.
    I know, it's mad, isn't it?

    The only thing I know for sure is that, despite what he feels forced to say in public, that he'll agree it's crazy in private.

    It will turn him against Woke for good.
    Everything is mad these days.

    You should have seen the complaints and abuse aimed at a black comedian from white people when he joked

    'Winston Churchill was a black man, because when was the last time you met a white man called Winston?'
  • kicorsekicorse Posts: 400
    edited October 14

    Where the madness of Woke ends - it just gets so nasty and the anti-racism ends up turning into (you guessed it) racism:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-54536187

    Yeah I saw that, and I'm sad say I agree with you. Not that being woke (i.e. being alert to racial injustice) is mad, but that this kind of vile behaviour is not uncommon and that anyone who identifies as woke has a responsibility to speak out against it. Far too few do.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,097

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    Londoners just won't obey these rules.

    Well build a wall around the M25 and make them pay for it ;-)
    I just don't see how this can be enforced. Are the police going to check every restaurant diner to see if they are in the same household?
    The rozzers are planning on only enforcing it for the most egregious examples, you 150 people at a wedding, that kind of stuff.
    And I suppose a lot of decent law-abiding people (ie not me) will reluctantly follow the rules anyway. So the govt gets the reduction in socialising that it wants.


  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 38,316
    He won't. He's waiting for a suitable statement from them on Friday.

    I expect they'll be haggling over fish late into Thursday night.
  • LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    Londoners just won't obey these rules.

    Well build a wall around the M25 and make them pay for it ;-)
    I just don't see how this can be enforced. Are the police going to check every restaurant diner to see if they are in the same household?
    The rozzers are planning on only enforcing it for the most egregious examples, you 150 people at a wedding, that kind of stuff.
    And I suppose a lot of decent law-abiding people (ie not me) will reluctantly follow the rules anyway. So the govt gets the reduction in socialising that it wants.


    When you factor in just how many people have to be DBS'd to hold their job, I suspect following the rules will be high.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 4,656
    kicorse said:

    Where the madness of Woke ends - it just gets so nasty and the anti-racism ends up turning into (you guessed it) racism:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-54536187

    Yeah I saw that, and I'm sad say I agree with you. Not that being woke (i.e. being alert to racial injustice) is mad, but that this kind of vile behaviour is not uncommon and that anyone who identifies as woke has a responsibility to speak out against it. Far too few do.
    Woke = poor English and probably can't tie shoelaces.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,215
    I am starting to wonder if Southgate needs replacing as England manager...we have all this attacking talent, yet England never look like scoring from open play.
  • I am starting to wonder if Southgate needs replacing as England manager...we have all this attacking talent, yet England never look like scoring from open play.

    And he keeps on picking the bag of shite that are Pickford and Maguire.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,097

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    Londoners just won't obey these rules.

    Well build a wall around the M25 and make them pay for it ;-)
    I just don't see how this can be enforced. Are the police going to check every restaurant diner to see if they are in the same household?
    The rozzers are planning on only enforcing it for the most egregious examples, you 150 people at a wedding, that kind of stuff.
    And I suppose a lot of decent law-abiding people (ie not me) will reluctantly follow the rules anyway. So the govt gets the reduction in socialising that it wants.


    When you factor in just how many people have to be DBS'd to hold their job, I suspect following the rules will be high.
    Students will ignore it. Thank God, Otherwise that screws my sex life.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,215

    I am starting to wonder if Southgate needs replacing as England manager...we have all this attacking talent, yet England never look like scoring from open play.

    And he keeps on picking the bag of shite that are Pickford and Maguire.
    Well that too...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 5,780

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    Londoners just won't obey these rules.

    Well build a wall around the M25 and make them pay for it ;-)
    I just don't see how this can be enforced. Are the police going to check every restaurant diner to see if they are in the same household?
    They could still be separate households and in a bubble, or an office working lunch.
    I can foresee several meetings being held in the pub at 5pm on Thursday nights.
  • LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    Londoners just won't obey these rules.

    Well build a wall around the M25 and make them pay for it ;-)
    I just don't see how this can be enforced. Are the police going to check every restaurant diner to see if they are in the same household?
    The rozzers are planning on only enforcing it for the most egregious examples, you 150 people at a wedding, that kind of stuff.
    And I suppose a lot of decent law-abiding people (ie not me) will reluctantly follow the rules anyway. So the govt gets the reduction in socialising that it wants.


    When you factor in just how many people have to be DBS'd to hold their job, I suspect following the rules will be high.
    Students will ignore it. Thank God, Otherwise that screws my sex life.
    Students delivering your meals on wheels doesn't count as sex.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,308

    Where the madness of Woke ends - it just gets so nasty and the anti-racism ends up turning into (you guessed it) racism:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-54536187

    I don't think its got anything to do with Woke.

    It is the fact there are a lot of trolls and c***s on the internet. It doesn't matter what the subject is if you get attention there will always be arseholes on the internet looking to attack you.
  • I am starting to wonder if Southgate needs replacing as England manager...we have all this attacking talent, yet England never look like scoring from open play.

    And he keeps on picking the bag of shite that are Pickford and Maguire.
    Well that too...
    Bizarre he can't find a spot for the world's best right back either.

    Alexander-Arnold has redefined the role, you can understand why Gareth Southgate managed to relegate Middlesbrough and only got the England job because Big Sam was a bit dodgy.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 4,656

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    Londoners just won't obey these rules.

    Well build a wall around the M25 and make them pay for it ;-)
    I just don't see how this can be enforced. Are the police going to check every restaurant diner to see if they are in the same household?
    The rozzers are planning on only enforcing it for the most egregious examples, you 150 people at a wedding, that kind of stuff.
    And I suppose a lot of decent law-abiding people (ie not me) will reluctantly follow the rules anyway. So the govt gets the reduction in socialising that it wants.


    When you factor in just how many people have to be DBS'd to hold their job, I suspect following the rules will be high.
    Students will ignore it. Thank God, Otherwise that screws my sex life.
    Students delivering your meals on wheels doesn't count as sex.
    It does if they stick pineapple on your pizza.
  • I've had a rather angry email from someone claiming to be a reader of this site. Not a mod.

    They are asking me to stop posting the graphs.

    What do other people think?

    Late reply as I'm catching up. I appreciate your graphs and would be happy if you continue them, as they are a more reliable and convenient source for the information I actually want to look at.

    Thanks for the work you put into them.

    --AS
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 7,793
    Is that for real? The, er, English grammar is dodgy.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 23,009
    edited October 14
    To channel Gerald the Gorilla: 'Negative? I'm absolutely livid!'
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,308

    I am starting to wonder if Southgate needs replacing as England manager...we have all this attacking talent, yet England never look like scoring from open play.

    And he keeps on picking the bag of shite that are Pickford and Maguire.
    Well that too...
    Bizarre he can't find a spot for the world's best right back either.

    Alexander-Arnold has redefined the role, you can understand why Gareth Southgate managed to relegate Middlesbrough and only got the England job because Big Sam was a bit dodgy.
    Its absolute madness that Alexander-Arnold isn't playing and he could be a key member of the England squad for the next decade.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,215

    I am starting to wonder if Southgate needs replacing as England manager...we have all this attacking talent, yet England never look like scoring from open play.

    And he keeps on picking the bag of shite that are Pickford and Maguire.
    Well that too...
    Bizarre he can't find a spot for the world's best right back either.

    Alexander-Arnold has redefined the role, you can understand why Gareth Southgate managed to relegate Middlesbrough and only got the England job because Big Sam was a bit dodgy.
    A few months ago, i rewatched the infamous panorama on football managers from a number years ago....how there was never a proper investigation and criminal proceedings is quite amazing.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 18,844

    Cyclefree do you mind if I ask where the £1300 figure comes from? The media keep saying £3000

    It’s up to £3000. The amount is based on rateable value. And hers is low. She’s looked into it, believe me.
  • I see some on twitter are condemning Trump for revealing Barron Trump's positive results at the time, my view is that he's a minor and he's afforded a level of privacy not available to Trump and other White House/campaign staff.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,637
    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    If they pay me 1 days fee at that rate I can advise them where they can make some future savings on their consultancy costs.......
    This makes me so mad.

    If this part of the world is put under Tier 3 restrictions and Daughter’s business is closed for a month, the maximum help it would get would be £1,300.

    That would cover one month’s rent and part only of a month’s electricity. Bear in mind that freezers need to be kept on.

    How could water, wi-fi, telephone, insurance, the rest of the electricity bill be paid for?

    Let alone employees’ wages (the 34% the Chancellor won’t help with), NI, pension contributions etc?

    It can’t.

    That’s a closed business in debt right there from Day 1.

    And for businesses under Tier 2 restrictions, turnover is down 70%. That’s not viable.

    As it is while business has been reasonably ok until now, this week it has gone very quiet.

    So unless the government changes its mind over support, the hospitality sector will be - bluntly - closed long before Xmas. Indeed, that is what she is expecting to do - unless her landlord is willing to forego his income from the business.

    That means:-

    - a landlord without an income;
    - a community pub that has been on the site for centuries closed;
    - 4 people unemployed: one is a mother of three, who is the main breadwinner, one is a man whose son committed suicide earlier this year and one is a highly trained chef. Two young school aged trainees who help out from time to time will also lose the opportunity to work, earn and gain experience;
    - Local suppliers losing a customer.

    And bear in mind that this is a business which made a profit last year and increased turnover by 60% in its first year of business. Of course, it’s bloody viable.

    My daughter is heartbroken at the prospect. As am I.

    Don’t tell me the government cannot afford to provide help when it is spending stupendous amounts on consultants and dodgy contracts with companies which appeared overnight and which have not delivered.
    They need to sort out the treatment of the hospitality sector fast.
    As you say, there are otherwise many viable businesses government action is going to shutter.

    I truly hope it works out for you, Cyclefree.
    All that glisters is not gold comes to mind when thinking of Sunak's recent outings.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,866
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,121
    Leaving aside that it's now the Welsh *Parliament*, that's not going to be very popular.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 7,846

    I am starting to wonder if Southgate needs replacing as England manager...we have all this attacking talent, yet England never look like scoring from open play.

    And he keeps on picking the bag of shite that are Pickford and Maguire.
    Well that too...
    Bizarre he can't find a spot for the world's best right back either.

    Alexander-Arnold has redefined the role, you can understand why Gareth Southgate managed to relegate Middlesbrough and only got the England job because Big Sam was a bit dodgy.
    A few months ago, i rewatched the infamous panorama on football managers from a number years ago....how there was never a proper investigation and criminal proceedings is quite amazing.
    What is unusual about dogs having Monaco bank accounts with six figure balances?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,649
    Carnyx said:

    Is that for real? The, er, English grammar is dodgy.
    Take Back Control ;)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,308
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree do you mind if I ask where the £1300 figure comes from? The media keep saying £3000

    It’s up to £3000. The amount is based on rateable value. And hers is low. She’s looked into it, believe me.
    I understand. They're not making that point clear in the media.

    I'm sure she's already thought of this but has she spoken to the landlord to seek some form of rent relief? Especially if there is a shutdown? I'm guessing the rent more than the electricity is the key issue, though electricity certainly doesn't come cheap.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 18,844
    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    Londoners just won't obey these rules.

    Well build a wall around the M25 and make them pay for it ;-)
    I just don't see how this can be enforced. Are the police going to check every restaurant diner to see if they are in the same household?
    They won’t need to . Restaurant/pub owners will have to or face the prospect of fines or losing their licence. They can’t afford to take the risk.
This discussion has been closed.