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And the Answers Are ….? The circuit breaker proposal – politicalbetting.com

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  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 5,804
    Some stupid comments about sacking Southgate this evening
  • Give the peasants devolution so long as they agree with their overlords in London.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 2,665
    edited October 14
    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Twitter is actively preventing links to an NY Post story about Biden's son from being tweeted.

    I have to say it is rather funny that certain outlets are immediately going on are the documents fake, how did they get them, was it illegal...where as trump tax returns, all good, no twitter verification needed and no need to worry about how they obtained them.
    Also don’t forget Joe has decided to take a day off campaigning today. What a coincidence.
    How much of his 10.4-point national lead do you suppose it will cost him?
    I don’t know. What do you reckon?
    I'd be genuinely shocked if it had any major impact at this stage - people are voting on [their perceptions of] the coronavirus, and in any case Trump is never going to emerge favourably from a 'Who's The More Corrupt?' competition.

    The post-debate, post-Trump-diagnosis bounce that boosted Biden's steady 7-point lead into the stratosphere hasn't faded yet. It could still unwind, but I don't see him dropping below that 7 points unless he's found in bed with a dead poodle between now and election day, and possibly not even then...
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 18,868
    Husband has just cooked dinner consisting of braised cauliflower and quinoa. God help me.

    2020 just keeps on getting worse......
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,691

    I've had a rather angry email from someone claiming to be a reader of this site. Not a mod.

    They are asking me to stop posting the graphs.

    What do other people think?

    They do not have to read the graphs they can skip past them.

    People tell ScottXP to stop doing Twitter

    I have even seen people telling Cyclefree not to write detailed headers

    So, regard your whinging but angry email as a sign of success. And keep posting the graphs. :+1:
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 38,328

    Where the madness of Woke ends - it just gets so nasty and the anti-racism ends up turning into (you guessed it) racism:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-54536187

    I don't think its got anything to do with Woke.

    It is the fact there are a lot of trolls and c***s on the internet. It doesn't matter what the subject is if you get attention there will always be arseholes on the internet looking to attack you.
    But these are the same sort of people who demanded he be censored in the first place. He was actually doing it as a darkly humourous ironic take to raise awareness of Black History Month and create a bit of levity about it as well.

    Woke is a religion. It's about policing orthodoxy and language, not genuinely dealing with racial injustice.

    If it was we'd get real action rather than divisive rhetoric, statues being pulled down, cancel culture and re-education for heretics.
  • I am starting to wonder if Southgate needs replacing as England manager...we have all this attacking talent, yet England never look like scoring from open play.

    And he keeps on picking the bag of shite that are Pickford and Maguire.
    Well that too...
    Bizarre he can't find a spot for the world's best right back either.

    Alexander-Arnold has redefined the role, you can understand why Gareth Southgate managed to relegate Middlesbrough and only got the England job because Big Sam was a bit dodgy.
    A few months ago, i rewatched the infamous panorama on football managers from a number years ago....how there was never a proper investigation and criminal proceedings is quite amazing.
    A former colleague used to legal work on transfers and said he couldn't get his head around it all.

    Club A wants to buy a player from Club B, Club B are happy to sell at the fee offered, player wants to move to Club A, everything is fine, but the deal won't happen if you don't pay x million in agents' fees and facilitation fees to other hangers on.
  • CatMan said:

    Leaving aside that it's now the Welsh *Parliament*, that's not going to be very popular.
    Senedd Cymru to be accurate
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,691
    Cyclefree said:

    Husband has just cooked dinner consisting of braised cauliflower and quinoa. God help me..

    Wow! Are things that hard down there in Cumbria?

  • Cyclefree said:

    Husband has just cooked dinner consisting of braised cauliflower and quinoa. God help me.

    2020 just keeps on getting worse......

    That's grounds for divorce.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,152
    Cyclefree said:

    Husband has just cooked dinner consisting of braised cauliflower and quinoa. God help me.

    2020 just keeps on getting worse......

    I trust he added raisins?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,527

    I've had a rather angry email from someone claiming to be a reader of this site. Not a mod.

    They are asking me to stop posting the graphs.

    What do other people think?

    Late reply as I'm catching up. I appreciate your graphs and would be happy if you continue them, as they are a more reliable and convenient source for the information I actually want to look at.

    Thanks for the work you put into them.

    --AS
    I also like and appreciate the graphs. The long, long tables of colour coded numbers are a bit annoying on phone and hard to read tbh, but don't really mind them.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 18,362
    I quite like quinoa as long as it's cooked right. There's a lot of bad over cooked quinoa out there.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,917
    Yes, just done the specimen day doubling time calculation, it's definitely falling, 11 days based on final data and 13 days based on forecast data using my own model. London is actually faring a bit better than the national picture at 12 days.

    This points to a national R of around 1.2 and falling, but with pretty wide regional variation.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,691

    Cyclefree said:

    Husband has just cooked dinner consisting of braised cauliflower and quinoa. God help me.

    2020 just keeps on getting worse......

    That's grounds for divorce.
    Only if he adds pineapple surely? ;)
  • guybrushguybrush Posts: 136
    Just read the header Cyclefree, great piece. Similar (if no doubt more articulate) to the point I was trying to make in the last thread. Real businesses are going to the wall, and it's not clear to what end. Is there actually a strategy? Actually, I might have a job for BCG after all...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,410

    I am starting to wonder if Southgate needs replacing as England manager...we have all this attacking talent, yet England never look like scoring from open play.

    And he keeps on picking the bag of shite that are Pickford and Maguire.
    Well that too...
    Bizarre he can't find a spot for the world's best right back either.

    Alexander-Arnold has redefined the role, you can understand why Gareth Southgate managed to relegate Middlesbrough and only got the England job because Big Sam was a bit dodgy.
    A few months ago, i rewatched the infamous panorama on football managers from a number years ago....how there was never a proper investigation and criminal proceedings is quite amazing.
    A former colleague used to legal work on transfers and said he couldn't get his head around it all.

    Club A wants to buy a player from Club B, Club B are happy to sell at the fee offered, player wants to move to Club A, everything is fine, but the deal won't happen if you don't pay x million in agents' fees and facilitation fees to other hangers on.
    The Sunderland documentary is great for that. The businessman who takes over just can't get his head around it.

    A classic is their star striker contract is up for renewal.

    The owner asks how much does he want?

    Coach - his agent says he wants x, but will never sign.

    Owner - i don't understand, he wants x, the fans love him, he likes it here, if we give him x, surely he stays.

    Coach - no, see his agent specalises in moving player abroad.

    Owner - why not just get him to resign here, he gets a fee and percentage of the wages.

    Coach - you don't understand, he will have it all setup already. The player wishes don't matter.

    Owner - he can't do that, he is our player. we will offer him X.

    Coach - ok, but he won't sign

    Player demands to be sold, agent amazingly has just the club.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,705

    Where the madness of Woke ends - it just gets so nasty and the anti-racism ends up turning into (you guessed it) racism:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-54536187

    I don't think its got anything to do with Woke.

    It is the fact there are a lot of trolls and c***s on the internet. It doesn't matter what the subject is if you get attention there will always be arseholes on the internet looking to attack you.
    But these are the same sort of people who demanded he be censored in the first place. He was actually doing it as a darkly humourous ironic take to raise awareness of Black History Month and create a bit of levity about it as well.

    Woke is a religion. It's about policing orthodoxy and language, not genuinely dealing with racial injustice.

    If it was we'd get real action rather than divisive rhetoric, statues being pulled down, cancel culture and re-education for heretics.

    Where the madness of Woke ends - it just gets so nasty and the anti-racism ends up turning into (you guessed it) racism:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-54536187

    I don't think its got anything to do with Woke.

    It is the fact there are a lot of trolls and c***s on the internet. It doesn't matter what the subject is if you get attention there will always be arseholes on the internet looking to attack you.
    But these are the same sort of people who demanded he be censored in the first place. He was actually doing it as a darkly humourous ironic take to raise awareness of Black History Month and create a bit of levity about it as well.

    Woke is a religion. It's about policing orthodoxy and language, not genuinely dealing with racial injustice.

    If it was we'd get real action rather than divisive rhetoric, statues being pulled down, cancel culture and re-education for heretics.
    Who says these are the same people or are representative?

    Today the subject is Woke but tomorrow it could be something completely different. It doesn't matter to social media, there will be someone there taking the absolute piss.

    And who says there is no real action being sought either? It's just easier to pay attention to morons on Twitter but Twitter isn't representative of anyone.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,917

    Where the madness of Woke ends - it just gets so nasty and the anti-racism ends up turning into (you guessed it) racism:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-54536187

    I don't think its got anything to do with Woke.

    It is the fact there are a lot of trolls and c***s on the internet. It doesn't matter what the subject is if you get attention there will always be arseholes on the internet looking to attack you.
    But these are the same sort of people who demanded he be censored in the first place. He was actually doing it as a darkly humourous ironic take to raise awareness of Black History Month and create a bit of levity about it as well.

    Woke is a religion. It's about policing orthodoxy and language, not genuinely dealing with racial injustice.

    If it was we'd get real action rather than divisive rhetoric, statues being pulled down, cancel culture and re-education for heretics.
    I think a lot of the people who support woke shutting down of opinions they don't agree with are going to have the same moment as Alec Guinness in Bridge Over the River Kwai, when he realises just what it is he's become.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,029
    Cyclefree said:

    Husband has just cooked dinner consisting of braised cauliflower and quinoa. God help me.

    2020 just keeps on getting worse......

    Sounds great with some tofu or beans, and fruit salad for dessert, with pineapple etc.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 7,930

    I am starting to wonder if Southgate needs replacing as England manager...we have all this attacking talent, yet England never look like scoring from open play.

    And he keeps on picking the bag of shite that are Pickford and Maguire.
    Well that too...
    Bizarre he can't find a spot for the world's best right back either.

    Alexander-Arnold has redefined the role, you can understand why Gareth Southgate managed to relegate Middlesbrough and only got the England job because Big Sam was a bit dodgy.
    A few months ago, i rewatched the infamous panorama on football managers from a number years ago....how there was never a proper investigation and criminal proceedings is quite amazing.
    A former colleague used to legal work on transfers and said he couldn't get his head around it all.

    Club A wants to buy a player from Club B, Club B are happy to sell at the fee offered, player wants to move to Club A, everything is fine, but the deal won't happen if you don't pay x million in agents' fees and facilitation fees to other hangers on.
    Trevor Sinclair on the radio said he never knew how much his agent got paid and didnt and doesnt care. As long as he got his target amount that was fine! Truly bizarre, he could have paid a lawyer at an hourly rate to negotiate his contract but instead his agent would have made millions.

    In contrast Ikechi Anya negotiated his own deal at Derby, getting paid £1.45m a year for 4 years. He was an average Champ player, with a few poor games in the Prem, and at 28 the contract was taking him past the peak years as a footballer. A fair deal for his ability and record would have been closer to a 2 year deal at £0.5m per year. So far he has made 20 starts for Derby, over £70k a pop, and wont make any more as he is training with the u23s and excluded from the first team.

    They really dont need agents in most contract scenarios.
  • Some stupid comments about sacking Southgate this evening

    Don't think so. 2 weeks ago an Englishman tore apart the best club side in England, if not Europe. Tonight he's sat on his backside all night in a match England have lost after being in arrears for 60 minutes. Ridiculous management.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 4,381

    I am starting to wonder if Southgate needs replacing as England manager...we have all this attacking talent, yet England never look like scoring from open play.

    And he keeps on picking the bag of shite that are Pickford and Maguire.
    Well that too...
    Bizarre he can't find a spot for the world's best right back either.

    Alexander-Arnold has redefined the role, you can understand why Gareth Southgate managed to relegate Middlesbrough and only got the England job because Big Sam was a bit dodgy.
    A few months ago, i rewatched the infamous panorama on football managers from a number years ago....how there was never a proper investigation and criminal proceedings is quite amazing.
    A former colleague used to legal work on transfers and said he couldn't get his head around it all.

    Club A wants to buy a player from Club B, Club B are happy to sell at the fee offered, player wants to move to Club A, everything is fine, but the deal won't happen if you don't pay x million in agents' fees and facilitation fees to other hangers on.
    I recommend the documentary on BBC iplayer about the two Escobars - Pablo and Andres - which shows how football was a popular way to launder money for drug barons.

    One of the less talked about things in Project Big Picture is the call for more transparency in club accounts. I think Henry is sincere on this - although the self-interest is obvious and they've clearly overreached themselves.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,705
    MaxPB said:

    Yes, just done the specimen day doubling time calculation, it's definitely falling, 11 days based on final data and 13 days based on forecast data using my own model. London is actually faring a bit better than the national picture at 12 days.

    This points to a national R of around 1.2 and falling, but with pretty wide regional variation.

    Excellent. And that's lagged too so if that trend continues ... We shouldn't panic and overreact with a national lockdown before the tiers have a chance to work.

    It wouldn't surprise me if from here we don't have another doubling.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 1,812

    I've had a rather angry email from someone claiming to be a reader of this site. Not a mod.

    They are asking me to stop posting the graphs.

    What do other people think?

    They do not have to read the graphs they can skip past them.

    People tell ScottXP to stop doing Twitter

    I have even seen people telling Cyclefree not to write detailed headers

    So, regard your whinging but angry email as a sign of success. And keep posting the graphs. :+1:
    Agree with that, they can skip and they have a cheek trying to stop you posting graphs that will be of use to others.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,705
    MaxPB said:

    Where the madness of Woke ends - it just gets so nasty and the anti-racism ends up turning into (you guessed it) racism:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-54536187

    I don't think its got anything to do with Woke.

    It is the fact there are a lot of trolls and c***s on the internet. It doesn't matter what the subject is if you get attention there will always be arseholes on the internet looking to attack you.
    But these are the same sort of people who demanded he be censored in the first place. He was actually doing it as a darkly humourous ironic take to raise awareness of Black History Month and create a bit of levity about it as well.

    Woke is a religion. It's about policing orthodoxy and language, not genuinely dealing with racial injustice.

    If it was we'd get real action rather than divisive rhetoric, statues being pulled down, cancel culture and re-education for heretics.
    I think a lot of the people who support woke shutting down of opinions they don't agree with are going to have the same moment as Alec Guinness in Bridge Over the River Kwai, when he realises just what it is he's become.
    Excellent analogy. 👌
  • Scott_xP said:
    That cant be right. 2 weeks ago you posted a picture of Merkel and Macron laughing about the UK's covid management.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 1,812
    Pulpstar said:
    To be fair, a very large part of the credit for the signing of the peace deals between Israel and the UAE / Bahrain was probably down to Kushner’s work.

    You can’t really put Hunter Biden’s dealings in the same camp
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 1,812

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Twitter is actively preventing links to an NY Post story about Biden's son from being tweeted.

    I have to say it is rather funny that certain outlets are immediately going on are the documents fake, how did they get them, was it illegal...where as trump tax returns, all good, no twitter verification needed and no need to worry about how they obtained them.
    Also don’t forget Joe has decided to take a day off campaigning today. What a coincidence.
    How much of his 10.4-point national lead do you suppose it will cost him?
    I don’t know. What do you reckon?
    I'd be genuinely shocked if it had any major impact at this stage - people are voting on [their perceptions of] the coronavirus, and in any case Trump is never going to emerge favourably from a 'Who's The More Corrupt?' competition.

    The post-debate, post-Trump-diagnosis bounce that boosted Biden's steady 7-point lead into the stratosphere hasn't faded yet. It could still unwind, but I don't see him dropping below that 7 points unless he's found in bed with a dead poodle between now and election day, and possibly not even then...
    He’d probably claim he couldn’t remember where the poodle came from and how it got there. It probably would be a fair defence
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,106
    Cyclefree said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    Londoners just won't obey these rules.

    Well build a wall around the M25 and make them pay for it ;-)
    I just don't see how this can be enforced. Are the police going to check every restaurant diner to see if they are in the same household?
    They won’t need to . Restaurant/pub owners will have to or face the prospect of fines or losing their licence. They can’t afford to take the risk.
    Can two households mix in outdoor seating areas? Heated beer gardens, etc?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 8,005
    edited October 14
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    800 to 107,000.

    How can any serious policy decisions be made from this kind predictive modelling.

    If it wasn't so fucking serious I'd actually be laughing my head off.

    What is the predictive modelling range for the govt decision? Or for your preferred policies?

    They will be similarly wide if SAGE considered them because there is a load of uncertainty!

    We cant discount policies simply because of uncertainty that will be relevant whatever policy we seek to consider.
    0.8-107k it's a joke. It's a prediction that had precisely zero value. We can assume the cost of the two week lockdown is a constant (X) and people saved is a variable (y), the equation the politicians have to make the decision on is cost per person saved, it's how the NHS already operates. If y = 107k then there is a clear and obvious basis for the policy, if y is 800 then there isn't. It also won't follow a perfect bell either so I'd be interested to see what the most likely outcome is after running the simulation a few hundred thousand times.
    In a very simple way it reminds me of the BBC's 1987 election exit poll, which ranged from a Tory majority of 86 to the Tories short by 17 seats of a majority.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,106




    No, France hasn't lost control.

    They've just.... imposed a 9pm curfew in Paris. Like in a war. Nothing to worry about. Move along.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,873
    LadyG said:





    No, France hasn't lost control.

    They've just.... imposed a 9pm curfew in Paris. Like in a war. Nothing to worry about. Move along.

    I also notice Germany has different restrictions in each region. They must be so confused.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 18,868

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree do you mind if I ask where the £1300 figure comes from? The media keep saying £3000

    It’s up to £3000. The amount is based on rateable value. And hers is low. She’s looked into it, believe me.
    I understand. They're not making that point clear in the media.

    I'm sure she's already thought of this but has she spoken to the landlord to seek some form of rent relief? Especially if there is a shutdown? I'm guessing the rent more than the electricity is the key issue, though electricity certainly doesn't come cheap.
    Yes. She will. But bear in mind he already helped out during the first lockdown. So it’s a tough ask because he’s losing income for a large part of this year. When will it all end? He’s not some big company or rich individual. He ran the place before then retired through ill-health.

    Any sort of prolonged lockdown which is the only effective way of getting the R number down then the only way to stop the hospitality sector going bust is something like the furlough scheme + grants, as before.

    Bloody expensive I know but not when you consider the costs of welfare, foregone tax revenues and the other costs of unemployment.

    How to pay for it? Well see this: https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/05/01/thinking-the-unthinkable-hows-this-going-to-be-paid-for/

    Taxes will simply have to rise on those who have done well, those with safe incomes and companies like Amazon etc and all those bloody consultants gouging the government, withdrawal of triple lock for pensioners, tax relief for pensions only at 20% etc.

    Oh - and I’d tell people that government advises against foreign travel. Plus there needs to be proper quarantine for those coming into the country ie locked up in a Heathrow hotel for 14 days.
  • LadyG said:





    No, France hasn't lost control.

    They've just.... imposed a 9pm curfew in Paris. Like in a war. Nothing to worry about. Move along.

    Dominic Cummings must be partially to blame for Macron losing control of the virus, or something.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,410
    edited October 14
    We all know what happens now....rest of Europe will now lockdown, in a month we will and that will be that for another 3 months.

    Talk of 2 week circuit breakers doing the trick is for the birds.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 8,005
    Another red card for England.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,752

    Cyclefree said:

    Husband has just cooked dinner consisting of braised cauliflower and quinoa. God help me..

    Wow! Are things that hard down there in Cumbria?

    You're just feeling smug because you had chilli this evening :smiley:
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,106

    We all know what happens now....rest of Europe will lockdown, in a month we will and that will be that for another 3 months.

    Yes, it is inevitable. Major national lockdowns (disguised as "regional restrictions") rght across Europe, maybe even in Germany. From November to March.

    Only Sweden, blessed Sweden, will escape
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 1,812
    HYUFD said:
    Good poll for Trump in Iowa, not so great WI

    Back in 2016, Jake Tapper (?) on CNN stated much of IA and WI were the same politically so slightly surprised at the scale of divergence
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 4,487
    That Hunter Biden story may not be anything but if Twitter and Facebook censor discussion about it that plays into Trump's hands.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,752
    LadyG said:

    We all know what happens now....rest of Europe will lockdown, in a month we will and that will be that for another 3 months.

    Yes, it is inevitable. Major national lockdowns (disguised as "regional restrictions") rght across Europe, maybe even in Germany. From November to March.

    Only Sweden, blessed Sweden, will escape
    I know. It's almost as if the Swedes handled this relatively well. But the British ruling class and its scientific advisors can't admit that can they?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 2,221
    edited October 14
    MaxPB said:

    Yes, just done the specimen day doubling time calculation, it's definitely falling, 11 days based on final data and 13 days based on forecast data using my own model. London is actually faring a bit better than the national picture at 12 days.

    This points to a national R of around 1.2 and falling, but with pretty wide regional variation.

    That's great - my main worry is that, with a positivity rate on the tests heading towards 10%, there's a chance that the increasing doubling time is an artefact of the testing system not being able to keep pace with the increase in the rate of infection.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 18,868

    I've had a rather angry email from someone claiming to be a reader of this site. Not a mod.

    They are asking me to stop posting the graphs.

    What do other people think?

    They do not have to read the graphs they can skip past them.

    People tell ScottXP to stop doing Twitter

    I have even seen people telling Cyclefree not to write detailed headers

    So, regard your whinging but angry email as a sign of success. And keep posting the graphs. :+1:
    Seconded. I find the graphs useful. Tell your angry correspondent to buzz off.

    Cyclefree said:

    Husband has just cooked dinner consisting of braised cauliflower and quinoa. God help me.

    2020 just keeps on getting worse......

    I trust he added raisins?
    God no! I rather assume he still loves me.Or at least doesn’t want me dead yet.

    As a change it wasn’t that bad. But I hope it won’t become a regular item, not without some other additions anyway.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,029
    edited October 14
    Reminds me of an old self absorbed Mr Bean episode with him walking into a lamp post.
  • Manchester and Lancashire now in tier 3
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,917

    MaxPB said:

    Yes, just done the specimen day doubling time calculation, it's definitely falling, 11 days based on final data and 13 days based on forecast data using my own model. London is actually faring a bit better than the national picture at 12 days.

    This points to a national R of around 1.2 and falling, but with pretty wide regional variation.

    That's great - my main worry is that, with a positivity rate on the tests heading towards 10%, there's a chance that the increasing doubling time is an artefact of the testing system not being able to keep pace with the increase in the rate of infection.
    Yes, that's also one of my concerns as I said this afternoon, though with increasing capacity and the positivity rate seemingly stable the swab to processing delta isn't growing any more so my model shouldn't be too awful.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,752
    Sunak to walk if Johnson goes full national lockdown?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 1,731
    If these numbers on early voting breakdown are at all close to the truth, Trump has an Everest to climb already:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/10/14/democrats-dominating-early-voting-in-2020-election/#1a97a50a1715
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,705

    Manchester and Lancashire now in tier 3

    All of Lancashire or part of it? Nothing on Sky or BBC website yet that I can see?

    Guessing surrounding towns like Warrington will be put in Tier 3 too then if both Liverpool and Manchester are.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 2,665

    LadyG said:





    No, France hasn't lost control.

    They've just.... imposed a 9pm curfew in Paris. Like in a war. Nothing to worry about. Move along.

    Dominic Cummings must be partially to blame for Macron losing control of the virus, or something.
    And Dido, let's not forget about Dido. She led Macron to this sad downfall...
  • guybrushguybrush Posts: 136

    I've had a rather angry email from someone claiming to be a reader of this site. Not a mod.

    They are asking me to stop posting the graphs.

    What do other people think?

    Think the graphs are brilliant, please keep posting and tell your angry reader to piss off.

    Just a thought, not sure what the source for the info is but would it be possible to post the data online somewhere?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 5,804
    How is this tweet supposed to help Trump with seniors exactly?
  • Manchester and Lancashire now in tier 3

    All of Lancashire or part of it? Nothing on Sky or BBC website yet that I can see?

    Guessing surrounding towns like Warrington will be put in Tier 3 too then if both Liverpool and Manchester are.
    Just received a newsflash but no detail
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,106
    MALMESBURY: ignore the whingers

    The graphs are excellent. Depressing, in recent days, but excellent.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 1,731
    Cyclefree said:

    I've had a rather angry email from someone claiming to be a reader of this site. Not a mod.

    They are asking me to stop posting the graphs.

    What do other people think?

    They do not have to read the graphs they can skip past them.

    People tell ScottXP to stop doing Twitter

    I have even seen people telling Cyclefree not to write detailed headers

    So, regard your whinging but angry email as a sign of success. And keep posting the graphs. :+1:
    Seconded. I find the graphs useful. Tell your angry correspondent to buzz off.

    Cyclefree said:

    Husband has just cooked dinner consisting of braised cauliflower and quinoa. God help me.

    2020 just keeps on getting worse......

    I trust he added raisins?
    God no! I rather assume he still loves me.Or at least doesn’t want me dead yet.

    As a change it wasn’t that bad. But I hope it won’t become a regular item, not without some other additions anyway.
    I log on just to see your graphs some days, and scroll through the rest with increasing impatience until I find them. Keep up the good work
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,705

    Manchester and Lancashire now in tier 3

    All of Lancashire or part of it? Nothing on Sky or BBC website yet that I can see?

    Guessing surrounding towns like Warrington will be put in Tier 3 too then if both Liverpool and Manchester are.
    Just received a newsflash but no detail
    Sky saying decision will be made in the morning.
  • Manchester and Lancashire now in tier 3

    All of Lancashire or part of it? Nothing on Sky or BBC website yet that I can see?

    Guessing surrounding towns like Warrington will be put in Tier 3 too then if both Liverpool and Manchester are.
    Just received a newsflash but no detail
    More detail.

    It has been confirmed Manchester and Lancashire need to go to tier 3 and awaiting HMG confirmation
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 18,362
    Some might question the wisdom of a Trump attack ad that mocks OAPs but I am not a super election winning genius so I will remain silent.
  • LadyG said:





    No, France hasn't lost control.

    They've just.... imposed a 9pm curfew in Paris. Like in a war. Nothing to worry about. Move along.

    Dominic Cummings must be partially to blame for Macron losing control of the virus, or something.
    And Dido, let's not forget about Dido. She led Macron to this sad downfall...
    Possibly so, as I understand France has ditched its Covid app.
  • Oh for fuck's sake.

    Care homes have been told they will be expected to make room for coronavirus patients who have been discharged from hospital, despite the policy being blamed for spread of the virus earlier in the year.

    The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) has sent a letter to providers urging them to prepare "isolation" rooms as the number of deaths continues to rise.

    However the plans, seen by The Telegraph, have sparked a backlash from care home managers, who have said the notion of having Covid-positive patients in the same building as vulnerable residents is "laughable".

    Sam Monaghan, the chief executive of the Methodist Homes care provider, said he was "highly concerned" about the prospect of people who had tested positive for coronavirus being admitted to care homes.

    He added: "We would be highly concerned, as we were at the outbreak of Covid, in terms of people who had tested positive coming into closed communities where the risk of spread is considerable."

    More than 15,000 care home residents have died of the virus, according to the latest Office for National Statistics data.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/14/care-homes-told-prepare-isolation-facilities-covid-positive/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,752
    Alistair said:

    Some might question the wisdom of a Trump attack ad that mocks OAPs but I am not a super election winning genius so I will remain silent.
    it's all he has left.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,917
    One of the major problems I have with the circuit break lockdown is that the research was conducted by a professor of mathematics in isolation using a mathematical model of viral replication. As many people have said before, these models don't ever seem to survive contact with the real world and don't seem to take real people into account when being written.

    People are predictably unpredictable and all of the mathematical models that support the 10pm closing times and other curfew like measures never seem to take this into account. I saw a calculation from a Tory person I know that said the 10pm closing time reduces contact hours by x many million hours and should therefore reduce the chances of transmission, the mathematical model didn't take into account city centres being flooded with loads of drunk people who have fit their evening's drinking into a shorter space of time then realising that milling about in the street is an option for them, or that it would create a transport crunch in big cities of drunk people less likely to observe any kind of social distancing.

    These ever so smart professors and their mathematical models are going to cause the death of many thousands of viable businesses and millions of jobs, but they won't feel or see any of the consequences of their inadequate models.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,152
    He's so image conscious you have to assume he's making a statement with the glasses: "I'm ready to lead."
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,873

    He's so image conscious you have to assume he's making a statement with the glasses: "I'm ready to lead."
    Perhaps he needs them to read?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,152
    RobD said:

    He's so image conscious you have to assume he's making a statement with the glasses: "I'm ready to lead."
    Perhaps he needs them to read?
    image
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,873

    RobD said:

    He's so image conscious you have to assume he's making a statement with the glasses: "I'm ready to lead."
    Perhaps he needs them to read?
    image
    That's a photo op.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,917

    He's so image conscious you have to assume he's making a statement with the glasses: "I'm ready to lead."
    Probably couldn't get the contacts in properly. Those glasses look rubbish.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,124
    Alistair said:

    Some might question the wisdom of a Trump attack ad that mocks OAPs but I am not a super election winning genius so I will remain silent.
    Trump talking about his love of grabbing Pussy didn't seem to make any difference to how many Women voted for him.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,917
    From the Telegraph - In Israel, people have been confined to within 1 km of their homes since September 18 and all non essential businesses were closed and public gatherings banned. The government initially said the restrictions would last just three weeks but four weeks later they are still in place.

    Every single MP needs to read that and take it in. It will never be two weeks.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,705

    Alistair said:

    Some might question the wisdom of a Trump attack ad that mocks OAPs but I am not a super election winning genius so I will remain silent.
    it's all he has left.
    He's a petulant troll not a thinking politician.

    That worked in 2016 because his lashing out hit a nerve with enough others. History isn't repeating itself though as he's not some genius that figured out a brilliant message last time and can repeat the trick now . . . he's just literally is the way he came across last time and he can't adapt.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 30,035
    Now Trump’s son has the virus.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,873
    IanB2 said:

    Now Trump’s son has the virus.

    Had?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,752
    RobD said:

    He's so image conscious you have to assume he's making a statement with the glasses: "I'm ready to lead."
    Perhaps he needs them to read?
    He could always take a spin along the A1 towards Barnard Castle to check his eyes?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,705
    CatMan said:

    Alistair said:

    Some might question the wisdom of a Trump attack ad that mocks OAPs but I am not a super election winning genius so I will remain silent.
    Trump talking about his love of grabbing Pussy didn't seem to make any difference to how many Women voted for him.
    Not when people were giving him the benefit of the doubt, not taking him too seriously and thought that it was all about how big a victory Hillary inevitably won.

    From the moment he won though he has been heavily underwater with women voters and he's never once recovered.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 15,646

    Manchester and Lancashire now in tier 3

    All of Lancashire or part of it? Nothing on Sky or BBC website yet that I can see?

    Guessing surrounding towns like Warrington will be put in Tier 3 too then if both Liverpool and Manchester are.
    Burnley Clitheroe included according to Labour contacts of mine
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,752
    MaxPB said:

    One of the major problems I have with the circuit break lockdown is that the research was conducted by a professor of mathematics in isolation using a mathematical model of viral replication. As many people have said before, these models don't ever seem to survive contact with the real world and don't seem to take real people into account when being written.

    People are predictably unpredictable and all of the mathematical models that support the 10pm closing times and other curfew like measures never seem to take this into account. I saw a calculation from a Tory person I know that said the 10pm closing time reduces contact hours by x many million hours and should therefore reduce the chances of transmission, the mathematical model didn't take into account city centres being flooded with loads of drunk people who have fit their evening's drinking into a shorter space of time then realising that milling about in the street is an option for them, or that it would create a transport crunch in big cities of drunk people less likely to observe any kind of social distancing.

    These ever so smart professors and their mathematical models are going to cause the death of many thousands of viable businesses and millions of jobs, but they won't feel or see any of the consequences of their inadequate models.

    The country has had enough of modellers.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 18,362
    edited October 14
    CatMan said:

    Alistair said:

    Some might question the wisdom of a Trump attack ad that mocks OAPs but I am not a super election winning genius so I will remain silent.
    Trump talking about his love of grabbing Pussy didn't seem to make any difference to how many Women voted for him.
    Women split 54/39 in favour of Clinton.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,752

    Oh for fuck's sake.

    Care homes have been told they will be expected to make room for coronavirus patients who have been discharged from hospital, despite the policy being blamed for spread of the virus earlier in the year.

    The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) has sent a letter to providers urging them to prepare "isolation" rooms as the number of deaths continues to rise.

    However the plans, seen by The Telegraph, have sparked a backlash from care home managers, who have said the notion of having Covid-positive patients in the same building as vulnerable residents is "laughable".

    Sam Monaghan, the chief executive of the Methodist Homes care provider, said he was "highly concerned" about the prospect of people who had tested positive for coronavirus being admitted to care homes.

    He added: "We would be highly concerned, as we were at the outbreak of Covid, in terms of people who had tested positive coming into closed communities where the risk of spread is considerable."

    More than 15,000 care home residents have died of the virus, according to the latest Office for National Statistics data.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/14/care-homes-told-prepare-isolation-facilities-covid-positive/

    There's going to be one hell of a load of legal action when this is all over.
  • MaxPB said:

    From the Telegraph - In Israel, people have been confined to within 1 km of their homes since September 18 and all non essential businesses were closed and public gatherings banned. The government initially said the restrictions would last just three weeks but four weeks later they are still in place.

    Every single MP needs to read that and take it in. It will never be two weeks.

    Absolutely right. It's good to see Sunak taking a very strong position on lockdowns, and I hope it will bolster Boris. It's such a strong statement that I think he may have cleared it with no 10 first.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,752
    French curfew for "at least four weeks".
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 15,357
    We appear to be fucked.

    It is tragic to have squandered the gains of the first lockdown for a package holiday and a cheap meal out.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 2,221

    He's so image conscious you have to assume he's making a statement with the glasses: "I'm ready to lead."
    Those glasses scream Clark Kent to me. Nice to think that there might be a superhero hiding behind them, but I'm not sure what message that sends. I secretly do good and you'll never know it was me? I pretend to be a wimp so as not to upset my boss?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,290
    Sunak is pitching his appeal to the 20% opposed to a circuit-breaker lockdown, not the 68% in favour.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 18,362

    Alistair said:

    Some might question the wisdom of a Trump attack ad that mocks OAPs but I am not a super election winning genius so I will remain silent.
    it's all he has left.
    He's a petulant troll not a thinking politician.

    That worked in 2016 because his lashing out hit a nerve with enough others. History isn't repeating itself though as he's not some genius that figured out a brilliant message last time and can repeat the trick now . . . he's just literally is the way he came across last time and he can't adapt.
    It didn't work in 2016 though. That's the big thing - Trump succeeded despite himself. Trump won due to Hilary being an astoundingly awful campaigner. In WI, PA and MI the Dem vote plummeted but the GOP vote rose by fractions of a percent. As I keep banging on Trump won less votes in WI than Romney.

    Trump winning covered up how terrible his campaign was.

    This is like how Cameron thought Better Together was the perfect model for the Remain campaign. Just because it won doesn't mean it was good.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 2,181
    edited October 14

    MaxPB said:

    Yes, just done the specimen day doubling time calculation, it's definitely falling, 11 days based on final data and 13 days based on forecast data using my own model. London is actually faring a bit better than the national picture at 12 days.

    This points to a national R of around 1.2 and falling, but with pretty wide regional variation.

    That's great - my main worry is that, with a positivity rate on the tests heading towards 10%, there's a chance that the increasing doubling time is an artefact of the testing system not being able to keep pace with the increase in the rate of infection.
    Indeed. When you have a finite amount of testing capacity, it is inevitable that the apparent doubling time will rise as cases increase. In reality, you are simply missing more of the positives.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,124
    Alistair said:

    CatMan said:

    Alistair said:

    Some might question the wisdom of a Trump attack ad that mocks OAPs but I am not a super election winning genius so I will remain silent.
    Trump talking about his love of grabbing Pussy didn't seem to make any difference to how many Women voted for him.
    Women split 54/39 in favour of Clinton.
    But did that change after the audio was released?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 27,291
    Cyclefree said:

    Husband has just cooked dinner consisting of braised cauliflower and quinoa. God help me.

    2020 just keeps on getting worse......

    Seems a fairly extreme way of getting out of having to cook in future.
This discussion has been closed.