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The states that will decide WH2020 – polling averages from the key battlegrounds – politicalbetting.

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  • Too late, but I think Trump has a slogan that the crowd go with, "The best is yet to come".

    Not quite same appeal as "You've never had it so good" or even "A chicken in every pot, a car in every garage".
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456

    Too late, but I think Trump has a slogan that the crowd go with, "The best is yet to come".

    Not quite same appeal as "You've never had it so good" or even "A chicken in every pot, a car in every garage".
    The best is yet to come - with Joe, Bye Don
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,305
    Pulpstar said:

    There's material for a Florida attack advert in here for the Democrats if they want to use it.

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1315802425488478208

    That tweet is stretching it a bit. He says “weather in the panhandle”. It sounded more like he was trying to squeeze in a local reference.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    CNN interviewing people at Trumps rally . Clearly we’re looking at a cult that would happily die for the dear leader . The ignorance is staggering . Even if Biden wins the reality is there’s a section of America who need to be sterilized so their moronic genes can’t further pollute the USA gene pool.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,305
    I think the wildcard scenario for Trump is that he loses with good grace, and everyone is so shocked that they let him retire with dignity.
  • I think the wildcard scenario for Trump is that he loses with good grace, and everyone is so shocked that they let him retire with dignity.

    He won't go with good grace, but for all the talk of rigged election, deep state, not accepting the result, I think it is all talk like so many of his pronouncements.

    I think he will moan about the fake news media, how horrible Biden will be and how great America would be after another 4 more years of him, but anything more than that I don't think so.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456

    I think the wildcard scenario for Trump is that he loses with good grace, and everyone is so shocked that they let him retire with dignity.

    I think the wildcard scenario for Trump is that he loses with good grace, and everyone is so shocked that they let him retire with dignity.

    That made me snort.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,853

    He exits to YMCA....bizarre.

    M A G A
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,652
    edited October 2020
    10.3m votes now cast - 7.4% of total vote in 2016.

    Key states (% of total vote in 2016):

    PA - 6.3%
    MI - 19.8%
    WI - 22.8%
    FL - 17.4%
    NC - 10.0%
    AZ - 0.2%

    https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,652
    edited October 2020
    Trump back in to 3.0 on Betfair following tonight's Florida poll from Emerson showing Biden +2.

    Updated 538 polling average for Florida now has Biden +4.5%.

    Biden now forecast to win Florida by 3.8% (and a 73% chance of winning Florida).

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/florida/
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,134
    nico679 said:

    CNN interviewing people at Trumps rally . Clearly we’re looking at a cult that would happily die for the dear leader . The ignorance is staggering . Even if Biden wins the reality is there’s a section of America who need to be sterilized so their moronic genes can’t further pollute the USA gene pool.

    Don't you think that sort of attitude might be what has made people like Trump so popular in the first place?
  • I thought the Emerson Florida poll was supposed to be a sensation? Looks bang in line with most others to me.

    Trump's price has shortened though. Is it because of the rally? Does seem that he can still inspire the cult, but is the cult as big as it once was?
  • I may as well go back to bed. Catch you all later.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,864
    Q: what's the difference between micro-economists and macro-economists?

    A: micro-economists are wrong about specific things, while macro-economists are wrong about things in general.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    I really like Mike's threads. So succinct and to the point. This one's a keeper for the Electoral College watch.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,890

  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690

    Following on from Dr Foxy story about reinfection (of a very sick person), here is one of a health young person....

    US confirms its first case of COVID-19 reinfection: Healthy Nevada man, 25, contracted coronavirus twice in 48 days and had to be put on oxygen after getting SICKER during his second bout with the virus

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8832541/Nevada-man-25-contracted-coronavirus-twice-48-days-SICKER-second-bout.html

    Increasing cases of this. Not good news.
    Get a grip. The virus has now infected well in excess of 100 million people worldwide and there are presently single digit numbers of recorded cases of reinfection.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited October 2020
    HYUFD said:
    A whole Pendolino to himself?

    I can feel @Sunil_Prasannan getting jealous...
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,060
    Scott_xP said:


    Rishi Sunak looks more like a Rutle than a Beatle.
  • Dunno why HYUFD is worried about lockdown and Tory back benchers. Doesn't he know they have a majority of 80 and can rely on said back benches to vote down their own manifesto?

    It'll be fine. Sheep do what the Dogs tell them to do.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,508
    Andy_JS said:

    nico679 said:

    CNN interviewing people at Trumps rally . Clearly we’re looking at a cult that would happily die for the dear leader . The ignorance is staggering . Even if Biden wins the reality is there’s a section of America who need to be sterilized so their moronic genes can’t further pollute the USA gene pool.

    Don't you think that sort of attitude might be what has made people like Trump so popular in the first place?
    New research explores authoritarian mind-set of Trump’s core supporters
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/10/12/trump-voter-authoritarian-research/
    ... They found a striking linear relationship between support for Trump and an authoritarian mind-set: The stronger a person supported Trump, the higher he or she scored on the RWA scale. People saying they strongly disapproved of Trump, for instance, had an average RWA score of 54. Those indicating complete support of the president, on the other hand, had an average score of 119, more than twice as authoritarian as Trump opponents.
    Many fervent Trump supporters, Altemeyer and Dean write, “are submissive, fearful, and longing for a mighty leader who will protect them from life’s threats. They divide the world into friend and foe, with the latter greatly outnumbering the former.”...


    Explains the guns too, perhaps.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Dunno why HYUFD is worried about lockdown and Tory back benchers. Doesn't he know they have a majority of 80 and can rely on said back benches to vote down their own manifesto?

    It'll be fine. Sheep do what the Dogs tell them to do.

    In this case, lemmings follow the leader off a cliff.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,508
    Scott_xP said:
    Sounds similar to the AZN delay, but less detail.
  • Can someone tell me what the exit strategy is from all this if there isn't an effective vaccine available sometime in the near future? I've yet to hear a good answer from anyone in power on this point.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,060

    New Ipsos polls.

    Wisconsin
    Biden 51% (+1)
    Trump 44%

    Pennsylvania
    Biden 51% (+1)
    Trump 44% (-1)

    The proper use of plus and minus signs.
    And it keeps the Trump fans happy, as they think that the Biden lead has dropped to 1% :smiley:
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Can someone tell me what the exit strategy is from all this if there isn't an effective vaccine available sometime in the near future? I've yet to hear a good answer from anyone in power on this point.

    I admire your optimism in thinking there might be one.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,060

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Not surprising that the government is not too keen on parliament being involved in negotiating international treaties.
    Promises are made to be broken, at least as far as this government goes.

    Chlorinated chicken and drug packed pork are going to be tough sells on the doorsteps.

    It is a gift for Lib Dems wanting to retake rural seats .
    I suspect they would be sold in supermarkets rather on the doorstep.

    And I doubt that purchase would be compulsory.
    In the US they made the standards so weak you can't tell what you're buying.
    Do you support banning imports from countries which do not match UK employment and environmental standards ?
    I'll put it the other way round. Do you support imports from overseas companies that employ slave labour? Or from companies that lock all the factory doors so there is no way to exit to the factory in a fire?

    There is obviously a mid-point between "banning imports from countries which do not match UK employment and environmental standards" and no standards what so ever.
  • ydoethur said:

    Can someone tell me what the exit strategy is from all this if there isn't an effective vaccine available sometime in the near future? I've yet to hear a good answer from anyone in power on this point.

    I admire your optimism in thinking there might be one.
    Sadly it pessimism from my side! In Oz we've only been able to keep it under control by locking down the international borders. Given the 'East German option' isn't viable at all in the long run, we face exactly the same issue.

    Everyone is betting the house on this vaccine, and there doesn't seem to be any semblance of a plan B. I can't be the only one starting to think that we're all going to have to consider the 'let it rip' approach at some point? As ghoulish as that sounds i'm struggling to think of what else works. (I say this not as a swivel eyed libertarian, but a left of centre boring type).
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,788
    edited October 2020

    Can someone tell me what the exit strategy is from all this if there isn't an effective vaccine available sometime in the near future? I've yet to hear a good answer from anyone in power on this point.

    The Anglo-French Fishing War of 2021. Union flags being waved by mask-covered wives as their menfolk sail off to sink the General Belgrano evil fishing menace to save the Tory Party
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773

    Dunno why HYUFD is worried about lockdown and Tory back benchers. Doesn't he know they have a majority of 80 and can rely on said back benches to vote down their own manifesto?

    It'll be fine. Sheep do what the Dogs tell them to do.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-9-3DtUzug
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Interesting charts on US COVID by state - including Republican vs Democrat:

    https://dangoodspeed.com/covid/total-cases-since-june
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773
    Yet the truth is that the fact of only being one case so far out of the millions who have had the virus and likely been exposed to it again is hugely powerful evidence of significant immunity.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,060

    ydoethur said:

    Can someone tell me what the exit strategy is from all this if there isn't an effective vaccine available sometime in the near future? I've yet to hear a good answer from anyone in power on this point.

    I admire your optimism in thinking there might be one.
    Sadly it pessimism from my side! In Oz we've only been able to keep it under control by locking down the international borders. Given the 'East German option' isn't viable at all in the long run, we face exactly the same issue.

    Everyone is betting the house on this vaccine, and there doesn't seem to be any semblance of a plan B. I can't be the only one starting to think that we're all going to have to consider the 'let it rip' approach at some point? As ghoulish as that sounds i'm struggling to think of what else works. (I say this not as a swivel eyed libertarian, but a left of centre boring type).
    OK, I'll be more upbeat. Look at the difference between now and March. Tests are much easier to get now. There are problems with the availability of tests being in the right place, but this is a logistics thing which is easy to improve on. Some type of tests results are much quicker now. So the possibility to impose "you can do X as long as you have tested negative" will become realistic.

    The medical knowledge how to treat worst case and middle case COVID patients has improved considerably, that will only get better. Those who do get ill won't be hit so hard.

    We will find more ways to do things outside (In this respect Australia has a great head sart) even in the harsh Berlin winter and ways to hold events while being fairly safe. We will have much better science about what activities are fine, and what activities are not.

    Eventually herd-immuity-lite will grow so the hot spots wont be so hot.

    This is not an "open up the champagne" answer, but a "we will learn how we can live with the disease sensibly".
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773

    Interesting charts on US COVID by state - including Republican vs Democrat:

    https://dangoodspeed.com/covid/total-cases-since-june

    Naughty, starting at June like that. It is of course why London isn’t suffering as bad as Liverpool, since June.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773
    eristdoof said:

    ydoethur said:

    Can someone tell me what the exit strategy is from all this if there isn't an effective vaccine available sometime in the near future? I've yet to hear a good answer from anyone in power on this point.

    I admire your optimism in thinking there might be one.
    Sadly it pessimism from my side! In Oz we've only been able to keep it under control by locking down the international borders. Given the 'East German option' isn't viable at all in the long run, we face exactly the same issue.

    Everyone is betting the house on this vaccine, and there doesn't seem to be any semblance of a plan B. I can't be the only one starting to think that we're all going to have to consider the 'let it rip' approach at some point? As ghoulish as that sounds i'm struggling to think of what else works. (I say this not as a swivel eyed libertarian, but a left of centre boring type).
    OK, I'll be more upbeat. Look at the difference between now and March. Tests are much easier to get now. There are problems with the availability of tests being in the right place, but this is a logistics thing which is easy to improve on. Some type of tests results are much quicker now. So the possibility to impose "you can do X as long as you have tested negative" will become realistic.

    The medical knowledge how to treat worst case and middle case COVID patients has improved considerably, that will only get better. Those who do get ill won't be hit so hard.

    We will find more ways to do things outside (In this respect Australia has a great head sart) even in the harsh Berlin winter and ways to hold events while being fairly safe. We will have much better science about what activities are fine, and what activities are not.

    Eventually herd-immuity-lite will grow so the hot spots wont be so hot.

    This is not an "open up the champagne" answer, but a "we will learn how we can live with the disease sensibly".
    Germany is ahead of us on this, largely because sensible precautions are much more widely observed.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773
    Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.

    “This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”
  • eekeek Posts: 28,076
    IanB2 said:

    Yet the truth is that the fact of only being one case so far out of the millions who have had the virus and likely been exposed to it again is hugely powerful evidence of significant immunity.
    It's not common but this isn't the first re infection case.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773
    CNN: Mckee (professor of European public health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) said that instead of focusing on the source of infection, the UK has "hit whole communities with a hammer" of localized lockdowns without consulting local leaders. He says such measures are appropriate "if you don't have intelligence" on the source of an outbreak, but adds: "The UK should not be in that position at this stage."

    Even the economic situation looks less stark. The IMF forecasts that the economy in the Asia-Pacific region will contract by 0.2% this year, while those in US and Western Europe are expected to sink by 5.9% and 7.3% respectively.

    Communication strategies are an underestimated "non-pharmaceutical intervention" which are not only useful in the short term -- by encouraging measures like mask usage -- but have long-term uses as well, says Heidi Tworek, an associate professor of international history and public policy at the University of British Columbia, who authored a report on democratic communications during the pandemic. The report analyzed three democratic jurisdictions in the Asia-Pacific region -- Taiwan, New Zealand, and South Korea -- and found that cohesive messages from those governments were useful in forestalling "compliance fatigue" and laid the foundation for vaccine uptake. "They also matter for cultivating trust among citizens and their governments -- trust that is critical for the future stability of democratic institutions," the report stated.

    America's largest roadblock remains its President, who has repeatedly called into question the integrity of the democratic process by undermining the safest way to hand in a ballot in a pandemic: Mail-in voting. As Trump continues to downplay the threat of the virus, another 20,000 Covid-19 deaths are "inevitable" by the end of the month, former director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Tom Frieden, told CNN this weekend. Unlike the Asia-Pacific region, the West appears to be well on its way to a tragic winter.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    IanB2 said:

    Interesting charts on US COVID by state - including Republican vs Democrat:

    https://dangoodspeed.com/covid/total-cases-since-june

    Naughty, starting at June like that. It is of course why London isn’t suffering as bad as Liverpool, since June.
    Discussed in this thread:

    https://twitter.com/TaylorLorenz/status/1315885899159269377?s=20
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    IanB2 said:

    Yet the truth is that the fact of only being one case so far out of the millions who have had the virus and likely been exposed to it again is hugely powerful evidence of significant immunity.

    It’s one of several confirmed cases around the world - and a useful antidote to the Charlatan in Chief claiming he’s immune.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    eristdoof said:

    ydoethur said:

    Can someone tell me what the exit strategy is from all this if there isn't an effective vaccine available sometime in the near future? I've yet to hear a good answer from anyone in power on this point.

    I admire your optimism in thinking there might be one.
    Sadly it pessimism from my side! In Oz we've only been able to keep it under control by locking down the international borders. Given the 'East German option' isn't viable at all in the long run, we face exactly the same issue.

    Everyone is betting the house on this vaccine, and there doesn't seem to be any semblance of a plan B. I can't be the only one starting to think that we're all going to have to consider the 'let it rip' approach at some point? As ghoulish as that sounds i'm struggling to think of what else works. (I say this not as a swivel eyed libertarian, but a left of centre boring type).
    OK, I'll be more upbeat. Look at the difference between now and March. Tests are much easier to get now. There are problems with the availability of tests being in the right place, but this is a logistics thing which is easy to improve on. Some type of tests results are much quicker now. So the possibility to impose "you can do X as long as you have tested negative" will become realistic.

    The medical knowledge how to treat worst case and middle case COVID patients has improved considerably, that will only get better. Those who do get ill won't be hit so hard.

    We will find more ways to do things outside (In this respect Australia has a great head sart) even in the harsh Berlin winter and ways to hold events while being fairly safe. We will have much better science about what activities are fine, and what activities are not.

    Eventually herd-immuity-lite will grow so the hot spots wont be so hot.

    This is not an "open up the champagne" answer, but a "we will learn how we can live with the disease sensibly".
    Spot on - and even a successful vaccine will not be 100% effective or suitable for everyone. There is unlikely to be a single magic bullet but a combination of vaccines, treatments and some restrictions will enable some return to normality. Not like before and we will all be poorer but a useful lesson for those who still think everything always has to be better. Sometimes things go backwards a bit. In 1980 I got a new job with more basic wage but because it was outside London my salary dropped by around £2000 a year. I discovered that just as big pay rises soon get asorbed and forgotten - the same applies in reverse.
    There are always upsides.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773
    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Yet the truth is that the fact of only being one case so far out of the millions who have had the virus and likely been exposed to it again is hugely powerful evidence of significant immunity.
    It's not common but this isn't the first re infection case.
    FT says it’s the US’s first confirmed.
  • IanB2 said:

    Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.

    “This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”

    What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Andy_JS said:

    nico679 said:

    CNN interviewing people at Trumps rally . Clearly we’re looking at a cult that would happily die for the dear leader . The ignorance is staggering . Even if Biden wins the reality is there’s a section of America who need to be sterilized so their moronic genes can’t further pollute the USA gene pool.

    Don't you think that sort of attitude might be what has made people like Trump so popular in the first place?
    Trump got a lower vote share than Romeny.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    IanB2 said:

    CNN: Mckee (professor of European public health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) said that instead of focusing on the source of infection, the UK has "hit whole communities with a hammer" of localized lockdowns without consulting local leaders. He says such measures are appropriate "if you don't have intelligence" on the source of an outbreak, but adds: "The UK should not be in that position at this stage."

    We would be in a much better place, if people such as McKee dropped such hyperbolic language and engaged with the discussion constructively.

    Along with a significant chunk of the media (see Times cartoon above for a good example), they give the impression of wanting to undermine public support for dealing with the virus.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    I thought the Emerson Florida poll was supposed to be a sensation? Looks bang in line with most others to me.

    Trump's price has shortened though. Is it because of the rally? Does seem that he can still inspire the cult, but is the cult as big as it once was?

    Universal rule of poll ramping. Any ramped poll is a massive let down.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    eristdoof said:

    ydoethur said:

    Can someone tell me what the exit strategy is from all this if there isn't an effective vaccine available sometime in the near future? I've yet to hear a good answer from anyone in power on this point.

    I admire your optimism in thinking there might be one.
    Sadly it pessimism from my side! In Oz we've only been able to keep it under control by locking down the international borders. Given the 'East German option' isn't viable at all in the long run, we face exactly the same issue.

    Everyone is betting the house on this vaccine, and there doesn't seem to be any semblance of a plan B. I can't be the only one starting to think that we're all going to have to consider the 'let it rip' approach at some point? As ghoulish as that sounds i'm struggling to think of what else works. (I say this not as a swivel eyed libertarian, but a left of centre boring type).
    OK, I'll be more upbeat. Look at the difference between now and March. Tests are much easier to get now. There are problems with the availability of tests being in the right place, but this is a logistics thing which is easy to improve on. Some type of tests results are much quicker now. So the possibility to impose "you can do X as long as you have tested negative" will become realistic.

    The medical knowledge how to treat worst case and middle case COVID patients has improved considerably, that will only get better. Those who do get ill won't be hit so hard.

    We will find more ways to do things outside (In this respect Australia has a great head sart) even in the harsh Berlin winter and ways to hold events while being fairly safe. We will have much better science about what activities are fine, and what activities are not.

    Eventually herd-immuity-lite will grow so the hot spots wont be so hot.

    This is not an "open up the champagne" answer, but a "we will learn how we can live with the disease sensibly".
    Yes, there is no magic bullet, but rather a lot of smaller incremental improvements in therapy. Still a nasty bug, but gradually getting there even without a vaccine. Procrastination about death is often wise, as something may well turn up.



    Reinfection is a worry. Yes it is rare at present, but it does seem to point to immunity being shortlived.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773
    Foxy said:

    eristdoof said:

    ydoethur said:

    Can someone tell me what the exit strategy is from all this if there isn't an effective vaccine available sometime in the near future? I've yet to hear a good answer from anyone in power on this point.

    I admire your optimism in thinking there might be one.
    Sadly it pessimism from my side! In Oz we've only been able to keep it under control by locking down the international borders. Given the 'East German option' isn't viable at all in the long run, we face exactly the same issue.

    Everyone is betting the house on this vaccine, and there doesn't seem to be any semblance of a plan B. I can't be the only one starting to think that we're all going to have to consider the 'let it rip' approach at some point? As ghoulish as that sounds i'm struggling to think of what else works. (I say this not as a swivel eyed libertarian, but a left of centre boring type).
    OK, I'll be more upbeat. Look at the difference between now and March. Tests are much easier to get now. There are problems with the availability of tests being in the right place, but this is a logistics thing which is easy to improve on. Some type of tests results are much quicker now. So the possibility to impose "you can do X as long as you have tested negative" will become realistic.

    The medical knowledge how to treat worst case and middle case COVID patients has improved considerably, that will only get better. Those who do get ill won't be hit so hard.

    We will find more ways to do things outside (In this respect Australia has a great head sart) even in the harsh Berlin winter and ways to hold events while being fairly safe. We will have much better science about what activities are fine, and what activities are not.

    Eventually herd-immuity-lite will grow so the hot spots wont be so hot.

    This is not an "open up the champagne" answer, but a "we will learn how we can live with the disease sensibly".
    Yes, there is no magic bullet, but rather a lot of smaller incremental improvements in therapy. Still a nasty bug, but gradually getting there even without a vaccine. Procrastination about death is often wise, as something may well turn up.



    Reinfection is a worry. Yes it is rare at present, but it does seem to point to immunity being shortlived.
    Not universal (which is almost always true) is more likely than short lived, surely? At least until significant mutation.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    A question re: Covid restrictions.

    What is the legal definition of “a gathering”?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773

    IanB2 said:

    Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.

    “This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”

    What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
    It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
  • Three weeks to go. Betfair has seen a slight swing back to Trump since yesterday, back to 3 (2/1 against or 33% in old money) from 3.5.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. B2, it's interesting to consider if it's a lack of intelligence, a lack of courage, or both. I'd suggest both. The PM is scared of not being liked and, for all his dipping into Latin, is not intellectually confident enough to stand up for what he believes to be the right course of action.

    Inaction and vacillation are also choices, and when that lurches into decisions without consultation or forewarning it's easy to see why people are aggravated by that.

    It is an unfortunate coincidence that at the time of the first pandemic in a century we're governed by a cretin.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    Jenrick on R4 Today shortly.

    Is it too early for popcorn?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.

    “This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”

    What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
    It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
    It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideals l
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.

    “This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”

    What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
    It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
    It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideal leader for now but the level of criticism from the 'chatterers' is a contant source of amusement.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Andy_JS said:

    nico679 said:

    CNN interviewing people at Trumps rally . Clearly we’re looking at a cult that would happily die for the dear leader . The ignorance is staggering . Even if Biden wins the reality is there’s a section of America who need to be sterilized so their moronic genes can’t further pollute the USA gene pool.

    Don't you think that sort of attitude might be what has made people like Trump so popular in the first place?
    Ah yes but Trump’s vote share was lower than Romney’s so it doesn’t really matter.

    In seriousness, this failure of people to recognise that many of his voters turned to Trump out of desperation not from adulation is staggering.

    It’s the same sort of mindset that calls his voters racist without realising that many of them voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012. What, did they think Obama was a White man?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,788
    edited October 2020

    Jenrick on R4 Today shortly.

    Is it too early for popcorn?

    I don't know which scenario is funnier:
    They know he's a fool and send him on anyway because the public are stupid
    They genuinely rate him

    And when I say they I do of course mean Lord Dominic of Barnard Castle
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773
    felix said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.

    “This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”

    What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
    It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
    It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideals l
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.

    “This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”

    What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
    It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
    It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideal leader for now but the level of criticism from the 'chatterers' is a contant source of amusement.
    politics is what comes before and after an election campaign, though, isn't it?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. B2, it's interesting to consider if it's a lack of intelligence, a lack of courage, or both. I'd suggest both. The PM is scared of not being liked and, for all his dipping into Latin, is not intellectually confident enough to stand up for what he believes to be the right course of action.

    Inaction and vacillation are also choices, and when that lurches into decisions without consultation or forewarning it's easy to see why people are aggravated by that.

    It is an unfortunate coincidence that at the time of the first pandemic in a century we're governed by a cretin.

    Good Morning everyone.

    Very good post, Mr D. I don't think Johnson's a cretin, though. I think he's narcissistic; really, really wants to be 'loved', and makes decisions on that basis.
    He also comes across as extremely selfish.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,508
    IanB2 said:

    Dunno why HYUFD is worried about lockdown and Tory back benchers. Doesn't he know they have a majority of 80 and can rely on said back benches to vote down their own manifesto?

    It'll be fine. Sheep do what the Dogs tell them to do.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-9-3DtUzug
    Well it is leading the sheep.
    In circles.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    eristdoof said:

    ydoethur said:

    Can someone tell me what the exit strategy is from all this if there isn't an effective vaccine available sometime in the near future? I've yet to hear a good answer from anyone in power on this point.

    I admire your optimism in thinking there might be one.
    Sadly it pessimism from my side! In Oz we've only been able to keep it under control by locking down the international borders. Given the 'East German option' isn't viable at all in the long run, we face exactly the same issue.

    Everyone is betting the house on this vaccine, and there doesn't seem to be any semblance of a plan B. I can't be the only one starting to think that we're all going to have to consider the 'let it rip' approach at some point? As ghoulish as that sounds i'm struggling to think of what else works. (I say this not as a swivel eyed libertarian, but a left of centre boring type).
    OK, I'll be more upbeat. Look at the difference between now and March. Tests are much easier to get now. There are problems with the availability of tests being in the right place, but this is a logistics thing which is easy to improve on. Some type of tests results are much quicker now. So the possibility to impose "you can do X as long as you have tested negative" will become realistic.

    The medical knowledge how to treat worst case and middle case COVID patients has improved considerably, that will only get better. Those who do get ill won't be hit so hard.

    We will find more ways to do things outside (In this respect Australia has a great head sart) even in the harsh Berlin winter and ways to hold events while being fairly safe. We will have much better science about what activities are fine, and what activities are not.

    Eventually herd-immuity-lite will grow so the hot spots wont be so hot.

    This is not an "open up the champagne" answer, but a "we will learn how we can live with the disease sensibly".
    Yes, there is no magic bullet, but rather a lot of smaller incremental improvements in therapy. Still a nasty bug, but gradually getting there even without a vaccine. Procrastination about death is often wise, as something may well turn up.



    Reinfection is a worry. Yes it is rare at present, but it does seem to point to immunity being shortlived.
    Not universal (which is almost always true) is more likely than short lived, surely? At least until significant mutation.
    It could be either, or both. We have a number of staff confirmed cases, without antibodies.

    I suspect that there would be at least partial immunity and therefore attenuated disease in most cases, but who really knows yet?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    alex_ said:

    A question re: Covid restrictions.

    What is the legal definition of “a gathering”?

    It's a meeting with people who don't live with you, for purely social reasons.

    There are some exceptions, so for example my brother and his wife form a 'bubble' with her mother who lives alone, which means that they can see each other but no-one else.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    felix said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.

    “This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”

    What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
    It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
    It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideals l
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.

    “This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”

    What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
    It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
    It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideal leader for now but the level of criticism from the 'chatterers' is a contant source of amusement.
    Johnson is a first class campaigner. So from that point of view he is very good at this element of politics.

    Johnson is poor at making consistent political decisions, therefore he not very good at this element of politics.

    I suspect therefore, it all hinges on one's definition of politics. If campaigning is one's priority you are right, Johnson is a political master.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    kamski said:
    Note the counties mentioned as having very high turnout and queues. One solidly Democrat, one swing-ish, one solidly Republican
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,385
    Morning all,

    Turn the radio on for Today. Within two minutes I am shouting at it. Didn't catch the name but some science advisor seemed to saying unless we have a full national lockdown the virus will double and then double again and then double again ad infinitum until we do lockdown.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,385
    Journalists seem to be back to trying to push ministers into a full, national lockdown.

    Grossly overstepping their role imho.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773
    edited October 2020

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. B2, it's interesting to consider if it's a lack of intelligence, a lack of courage, or both. I'd suggest both. The PM is scared of not being liked and, for all his dipping into Latin, is not intellectually confident enough to stand up for what he believes to be the right course of action.

    Inaction and vacillation are also choices, and when that lurches into decisions without consultation or forewarning it's easy to see why people are aggravated by that.

    It is an unfortunate coincidence that at the time of the first pandemic in a century we're governed by a cretin.

    Good Morning everyone.

    Very good post, Mr D. I don't think Johnson's a cretin, though. I think he's narcissistic; really, really wants to be 'loved', and makes decisions on that basis.
    He also comes across as extremely selfish.
    I am reminded of the anecdote where he went around promising the same job to a whole bunch of people, during his first abortive leadership bid (the one that got Gove to say he was unsuitable to lead).

    Yesterday he clearly annoyed the Liverpool Mayor, his own Birmingham Mayor, a lot of the scientists, and a bunch of his own backbenchers.

    On Liverpool, where he claimed in parliament that he had the Mayor's support and name-checked him several times, only for this to be denied afterwards, the most credible explanation is that Liverpool did in fact acquiesce to the tighter rules but understanding that they would apply to the whole of the North. No-one went back to explain that, post Burnham, the decision had changed, and they were well miffed to find Liverpool singled out in a way they werent expecting.

    Which is bad politics.

    Something similar appears to have happened with Street, who seems to have been consulted and thinks he agreed to something different from what was actually decided.
  • alex_ said:

    A question re: Covid restrictions.

    What is the legal definition of “a gathering”?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lnyH0H481Zk
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    IanB2 said:

    felix said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.

    “This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”

    What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
    It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
    It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideals l
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.

    “This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”

    What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
    It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
    It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideal leader for now but the level of criticism from the 'chatterers' is a contant source of amusement.
    politics is what comes before and after an election campaign, though, isn't it?
    No - the politics never stops, but even accepting the idea makes the point. And it is not unusual for parties and leaders to lose popularity after an election. The oddity this time is how the Tory vote is holding up in the face of extraordinary circumstances. I watch this from the Spanish perspective - the arguments in the UK bear striking similarity to those here - and it is the same in many other European countries.
    I am often struck by how insular the UK media is and within by how London centric., eg the other day there was the picture of 10pm revellers in Piccadilly as a sign of how the UK was reacting to early closing! Do me a favour. There is no sense of proportion in the criticism, no understanding of the difficult balances to be struck. No understanding that New Zealand is not the UK ffs.
  • felix said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.

    “This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”

    What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
    It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
    It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideals l
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.

    “This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”

    What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
    It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
    It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideal leader for now but the level of criticism from the 'chatterers' is a contant source of amusement.
    As I have said many times; winning a beauty contest against an ugly competitor was only a victory on the day. Johnson's apologists keep harping back to this as though it is the only thing that matters. You cannot govern if you cannot win, but there is little point in winning if you cannot govern.

    What matters to the country is Johnson's ability to lead. This, he is clearly unsuited to. The Conservatives will have to replace him. The longer he is in post the greater the damage to what remains of the reputation of his party and the country for the longer term. The Conservatives used to have one core purpose; good governance. They have now had two leaders in a row who were not up to the job, and that, regrettably, will eventually seep into the public consciousness.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. B2, it's interesting to consider if it's a lack of intelligence, a lack of courage, or both. I'd suggest both. The PM is scared of not being liked and, for all his dipping into Latin, is not intellectually confident enough to stand up for what he believes to be the right course of action.

    Inaction and vacillation are also choices, and when that lurches into decisions without consultation or forewarning it's easy to see why people are aggravated by that.

    It is an unfortunate coincidence that at the time of the first pandemic in a century we're governed by a cretin.

    Good Morning everyone.

    Very good post, Mr D. I don't think Johnson's a cretin, though. I think he's narcissistic; really, really wants to be 'loved', and makes decisions on that basis.
    He also comes across as extremely selfish.
    Give me a PM who prefers to be respected (Thatcher) rather than liked (Johnson) any day of the week. Thatcher would not be happy with current Con polling leads - all it would show to her was that the government wasn’t taking the difficult unpopular decisions early in its term, to reap the rewards later.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    kamski said:
    It's the micromanagement of the electoral process by the politicians at various levels that gets me - a system that couldn't be designed better if you wanted to encourage skullduggery and partisanship.

    The election itself should be run by a 'career' civil servant in each area, reporting to a 'career' civil servant in each State, with no politicians involved except to observe.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147

    felix said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.

    “This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”

    What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
    It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
    It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideals l
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.

    “This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”

    What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
    It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
    It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideal leader for now but the level of criticism from the 'chatterers' is a contant source of amusement.
    Johnson is a first class campaigner. So from that point of view he is very good at this element of politics.

    Johnson is poor at making consistent political decisions, therefore he not very good at this element of politics.

    I suspect therefore, it all hinges on one's definition of politics. If campaigning is one's priority you are right, Johnson is a political master.
    I don't disagree with that. I do think though that judgement of Johnson is distorted by a level of sour grapes which ignores the extraordinarily difficult circumstances of this crisis. He is far from perfect but I am unconvinced that any other PM right now would be being lauded on all sides either.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773

    Journalists seem to be back to trying to push ministers into a full, national lockdown.

    Grossly overstepping their role imho.

    Yet they are representing public opinion to the politicians. Not that I agree with it myself.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,508
    IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Yet the truth is that the fact of only being one case so far out of the millions who have had the virus and likely been exposed to it again is hugely powerful evidence of significant immunity.
    It's not common but this isn't the first re infection case.
    FT says it’s the US’s first confirmed.
    It’s an interesting question as to what proportion of reinfections are likely to be identified and confirmed as such.
    Anecdotally, I have a relative in Arizona who has had it twice, three months apart, and was tested on both occasions. They certainly don’t appear in the figures.

    Does the testing system over here guarantee that cases of reinfection would be flagged up ? I would assume so, but is that correct ?

  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Sandpit said:

    alex_ said:

    A question re: Covid restrictions.

    What is the legal definition of “a gathering”?

    It's a meeting with people who don't live with you, for purely social reasons.

    There are some exceptions, so for example my brother and his wife form a 'bubble' with her mother who lives alone, which means that they can see each other but no-one else.
    That’s fine in a home, but in a pub? I can be sat at the same table as someone, someone I may not even know, but have no social contact with them. A gathering?

    I sit at an adjacent table to somebody (who I may or may not know) and engage the in conversation. A gathering?

    I know this seems like nitpicking but when we we discussing the “Tier 2” type regulations the other day, people covered by them said that they were universally being turned a blind eye to. Don’t ask don’t tell. It is obvious that doing this is the only way for pubs and restaurants to be remotely viable in Tier 2 restricted areas.

    However if you are going to go down the “blind eye” route, it is quite useful to actually know whether you are in danger of actually being prosecuted.

    What if pubs put in loads of small tables for example?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773
    alex_ said:

    Sandpit said:

    alex_ said:

    A question re: Covid restrictions.

    What is the legal definition of “a gathering”?

    It's a meeting with people who don't live with you, for purely social reasons.

    There are some exceptions, so for example my brother and his wife form a 'bubble' with her mother who lives alone, which means that they can see each other but no-one else.
    That’s fine in a home, but in a pub? I can be sat at the same table as someone, someone I may not even know, but have no social contact with them. A gathering?

    I sit at an adjacent table to somebody (who I may or may not know) and engage the in conversation. A gathering?

    I know this seems like nitpicking but when we we discussing the “Tier 2” type regulations the other day, people covered by them said that they were universally being turned a blind eye to. Don’t ask don’t tell. It is obvious that doing this is the only way for pubs and restaurants to be remotely viable in Tier 2 restricted areas.

    However if you are going to go down the “blind eye” route, it is quite useful to actually know whether you are in danger of actually being prosecuted.

    What if pubs put in loads of small tables for example?
    In the HIGH regulations - linked above - the word "gathering" appears one hundred and forty eight times, so plenty for you to get your teeth into....
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147

    felix said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.

    “This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”

    What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
    It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
    It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideals l
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.

    “This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”

    What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
    It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
    It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideal leader for now but the level of criticism from the 'chatterers' is a contant source of amusement.
    As I have said many times; winning a beauty contest against an ugly competitor was only a victory on the day. Johnson's apologists keep harping back to this as though it is the only thing that matters. You cannot govern if you cannot win, but there is little point in winning if you cannot govern.

    What matters to the country is Johnson's ability to lead. This, he is clearly unsuited to. The Conservatives will have to replace him. The longer he is in post the greater the damage to what remains of the reputation of his party and the country for the longer term. The Conservatives used to have one core purpose; good governance. They have now had two leaders in a row who were not up to the job, and that, regrettably, will eventually seep into the public consciousness.
    It is pretty clear that he will probably remain PM intil the denouement of the current crisis and then be replaced. The party will survive in good order if history is anything to go by. As it is I think the victory against Corbyn was important and necessary - for that he has my gratitude.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    Journalists seem to be back to trying to push ministers into a full, national lockdown.

    Grossly overstepping their role imho.

    UK journalists have been grossly overstepping their role since about February.

    They don't understand the technical subject matter, all live in Islington, all hate the government for Brexit and think that politics as usual is the way through this - when it clearly isn't. War and Pandemic are not normal situations and require a change of attitude.

    Government IMO need to sidestep the mainstream media as much as possible - lots of public information camplaigns on TV, radio and social media, with ministers answering any and all questions by telling people to read the official advice at emergency.gov.uk
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    edited October 2020

    Morning all,

    Turn the radio on for Today. Within two minutes I am shouting at it. Didn't catch the name but some science advisor seemed to saying unless we have a full national lockdown the virus will double and then double again and then double again ad infinitum until we do lockdown.

    Sage recommended a 2 to 3 circuit breaker in September but to close down the whole economy is irresponsible, especially as large parts do not have the levels of infection as the metro areas

    Andy Burnham saying he thinks we should have a circuit breaker thereby wanting to close down the whole economy rather than address why his area is in the situation it is. Also as in the previous lockdown who is to guarantee a circuit break will last for 3 weeks and how we would ever get out of it

    I believe the present 3 tiers is the best way forward and the rules are more easily understood

    In the end there are those who want complete lockdown and others who want the exact opposite, while there are many who just want the government to fail because they are implementing Brexit

    I do not envy any leader at present and in all this furore it needs to be noted that a lot of tier 3 requirements were implemented in Scotland by Nicola Sturgeon three weeks ago, and today we have Drakeford threatening to close the Welsh border, yes he really is
  • Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Sounds similar to the AZN delay, but less detail.
    This is unnecessary scare mongering. For one, it is only one of many potential vaccines, and secondly it is perfectly normal in any study to get adverse reactions in candidates. This is the purpose of the trial to test efficacy and safety. It would be unusual if a trail did not have any adverse events, unless of course, it takes place in China, Russia or North Korea!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,385
    IanB2 said:

    Journalists seem to be back to trying to push ministers into a full, national lockdown.

    Grossly overstepping their role imho.

    Yet they are representing public opinion to the politicians. Not that I agree with it myself.
    Me neither.

  • IanB2 said:

    Journalists seem to be back to trying to push ministers into a full, national lockdown.

    Grossly overstepping their role imho.

    Yet they are representing public opinion to the politicians. Not that I agree with it myself.
    I do not think they are especially in tier 1areas
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    edited October 2020
    King Cole, I disagree on narcissism. Narcissus had his faults but a lack of self-love wasn't one of them. The PM's insecure and wants those around him to like him.

    As Francis Urquhart said, a good trait to have. In a spaniel. Or a whore. But not a PM.

    Edited extra bit: Narcissus was so unconcerned with whether those around him liked him that the pining Echo literally faded away to nothing because he was too busy contemplating his own reflection.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,554
    Sandpit said:

    Journalists seem to be back to trying to push ministers into a full, national lockdown.

    Grossly overstepping their role imho.

    UK journalists have been grossly overstepping their role since about February.

    They don't understand the technical subject matter, all live in Islington, all hate the government for Brexit and think that politics as usual is the way through this - when it clearly isn't. War and Pandemic are not normal situations and require a change of attitude.

    Government IMO need to sidestep the mainstream media as much as possible - lots of public information camplaigns on TV, radio and social media, with ministers answering any and all questions by telling people to read the official advice at emergency.gov.uk
    You’re dangerously close to a Trumpian point of view there. You’ll be banging on about the MSM or fake news next.

    When you cut a long story short, there is a growing trend for governments that can’t handle scrutiny, criticism and simple questions of clarification. They have some bizarre notion that a grateful nation needs to do as it’s told and praise their kindness and wisdom. All despite the obvious that they are out of their depth.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,890
    felix said:

    I don't disagree with that. I do think though that judgement of Johnson is distorted by a level of sour grapes which ignores the extraordinarily difficult circumstances of this crisis. He is far from perfect but I am unconvinced that any other PM right now would be being lauded on all sides either.

    No

    BoZo has made a number of explicit moves that made the crisis worse that other leaders would not have made (probably)

    Expelling all the talent.
    Hiring Dom.
    Not firing Dom.

    BoZo is uniquely awful, and Tories know it
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Morning all,

    Turn the radio on for Today. Within two minutes I am shouting at it. Didn't catch the name but some science advisor seemed to saying unless we have a full national lockdown the virus will double and then double again and then double again ad infinitum until we do lockdown.

    Sage recommended a 2 to 3 circuit breaker in September but to close down the whole economy is irresponsible, especially as large parts do not have the levels of infection as the metro areas

    Andy Burnham saying he thinks we should have a circuit breaker thereby wanting to close down the whole economy rather than address why his area is in the situation it is. Also as in the previous lockdown who is to guarantee a circuit break will last for 3 weeks and how we would ever get out of it

    I believe the present 3 tiers is the best way forward and the rules are more easily understood

    In the end there are those who want complete lockdown and others who want the exact opposite, while there are many who just want the government to fail because they are implementing Brexit

    I do not envy any leader at present and in all this furore it needs to be noted that a lot of tier 3 requirements were implemented in Scotland by Nicola Sturgeon three weeks ago, and today we have Drakeford threatening to close the Welsh border, yes he really is
    Name one person who wants the government to fail because they implemented brexit, what utter tosh.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Put simply, anyone who knows anything about pubs knows that they (in general) can't remain viable under Tier 2 restrictions unless they effectively ignore them. So either they continue to operate as if they are in Tier 1. Or they shut down (Tier 3 without the cash).

    I can't see the current Tier system, with current levels of financial support - only available to Tier 3 - lasting very long because of this. Yet another example of the Govt putting in a "new framework" intended for a period of months, which probably will break down in weeks.

    Somebody, somewhere needs to get a grip and give the scientists a new brief. One that actively takes into account what is economically and politically feasible to deliver. If that happens, who knows maybe we will be able to try out a wider range of policy solutions (be it utilising "rapid testing", more local control, more targeting of individual businesses rather than business sectors or whatever).

    In fact, how about piloting a few different things in different areas to actually generate some data on what might work and what doesn't?

    Yesterday the Prime Minister stood up and announced new measures which will cripple (again) large areas of the economy. And then the Chief Medical Officer stood up and said he didn't think they would 'work' (although it's unclear what "work" means as we don't appear to have a stated end goal).

    Frankly, to the extent that we have a choice between protecting the economy and protecting health (yes i know it's not that simple) then if you're going to go for the latter, at least do something that will be effective!!!

  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661
    RIP Sam Brittan
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,508

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Sounds similar to the AZN delay, but less detail.
    This is unnecessary scare mongering. For one, it is only one of many potential vaccines, and secondly it is perfectly normal in any study to get adverse reactions in candidates. This is the purpose of the trial to test efficacy and safety. It would be unusual if a trail did not have any adverse events, unless of course, it takes place in China, Russia or North Korea!
    Scaremongering is a bit strong, but I’d agree the headline is somewhat hyperbolic.
    Especially as it’s entirely possible the adverse event is in the placebo group.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    felix said:

    felix said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.

    “This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”

    What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
    It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
    It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideals l
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.

    “This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”

    What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
    It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
    It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideal leader for now but the level of criticism from the 'chatterers' is a contant source of amusement.
    Johnson is a first class campaigner. So from that point of view he is very good at this element of politics.

    Johnson is poor at making consistent political decisions, therefore he not very good at this element of politics.

    I suspect therefore, it all hinges on one's definition of politics. If campaigning is one's priority you are right, Johnson is a political master.
    I don't disagree with that. I do think though that judgement of Johnson is distorted by a level of sour grapes which ignores the extraordinarily difficult circumstances of this crisis. He is far from perfect but I am unconvinced that any other PM right now would be being lauded on all sides either.
    I have an innate dislike of Johnson so I am not impartial. However, I am trying to be just that. There is no point me suggesting Blair would have handled othe pandemic better as I clearly have a dog in that race.

    I didn't like Mrs May either, but I can't help feeling that she would have followed the science, and communicated the message better. She would have been more determined and forthright with what she believed to be right. She may well make the wrong decision but she wouldn't have been too scared to try.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Scott_xP said:

    felix said:

    I don't disagree with that. I do think though that judgement of Johnson is distorted by a level of sour grapes which ignores the extraordinarily difficult circumstances of this crisis. He is far from perfect but I am unconvinced that any other PM right now would be being lauded on all sides either.

    No

    BoZo has made a number of explicit moves that made the crisis worse that other leaders would not have made (probably)

    Expelling all the talent.
    Hiring Dom.
    Not firing Dom.

    BoZo is uniquely awful, and Tories know it
    It could be worse. Johnson is not Trump, although that bar is so low that it's buried under the ground.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    alex_ said:

    Sandpit said:

    alex_ said:

    A question re: Covid restrictions.

    What is the legal definition of “a gathering”?

    It's a meeting with people who don't live with you, for purely social reasons.

    There are some exceptions, so for example my brother and his wife form a 'bubble' with her mother who lives alone, which means that they can see each other but no-one else.
    That’s fine in a home, but in a pub? I can be sat at the same table as someone, someone I may not even know, but have no social contact with them. A gathering?

    I sit at an adjacent table to somebody (who I may or may not know) and engage the in conversation. A gathering?

    I know this seems like nitpicking but when we we discussing the “Tier 2” type regulations the other day, people covered by them said that they were universally being turned a blind eye to. Don’t ask don’t tell. It is obvious that doing this is the only way for pubs and restaurants to be remotely viable in Tier 2 restricted areas.

    However if you are going to go down the “blind eye” route, it is quite useful to actually know whether you are in danger of actually being prosecuted.

    What if pubs put in loads of small tables for example?
    Pubs are IMO easy to understand.

    Tables should be socially distanced (1.5m apart indoors), and you should only be on a table with your own 'gathering' - this is either your group of six, or your own household according to your area's risk zone.
This discussion has been closed.