All this goes to show is that there are only really two binary options. Nothing, or national lockdown (ie March style).
Trying to work with QR codes and fannying around when people aren't following it was destined for failure, you can't control human nature. Not without employing a police state.
One of the worst things about trying to control this disease is the number of asymptomatic carriers, it has made far too many think they're invulnerable (to spreading it to others.)
A gathering takes place when two or more persons are present together in the same place in order— (a) to engage in any form of social interaction with each other, or (b) to undertake any other activity with each other.
Thanks. (Arguably that even covers going to the toilet )
I can't see that being enforceable. The definition relies far too much on intent and not at all on the actions/activities being engaged in.
You clearly do things differently in your house.
😊
Let's say i go to the pub with a friend. We're going for a drink. We might quite happily not say a word to each other all evening. Or we might exchange a few words every so often. Or we might not. Are we in a gathering? What is the activity we are undertaking with each other?
We get up to leave. We first go to the gents. We're going for a piss. We might quite happily not say a word to each other. Or we might exchange a few words. Or we might not. Are we in a gathering? What is the activity we are undertaking with each other?
Cottaging?
Lol - so you agree. We are in a gathering! Which was the point i was making.
Either both situations are arguably a gathering. Or neither are.
But only one is actually intended to be prevented by the regulations (going for a drink)
I suspect the most important development yesterday was the publication of the SAGE minutes from September 20. SAGE confirms the view that test, trace and isolate is simply not working, and can only be seen as a major failure by government. It was noted by somebody on here, but I don't think enough attention has been paid to it. This is what the minutes said:
An effective test, trace and isolate (TTI) system is important to reduce the incidence of infections in the community. Estimates of the effectiveness of this system on R are difficult to ascertain. The relatively low levels of engagement with the system (comparing ONS incidence estimates with NHS Test and Trace numbers) coupled with testing delays and likely poor rates of adherence with self-isolation suggests that this system is having a marginal impact on transmission at the moment. Unless the system grows at the same rate as the epidemic, and support is given to people to enable them to adhere to self-isolation, it is likely that the impact of Test, Trace and Isolate will further decline in the future.
That is incredibly gloomy. Poor rates of adherence with self-isolation? Testing delays? Low levels of engagement? Further decline in the future?
It strikes me that this is, as some have been saying, the most significant weakness in delivery of government policy, and should be a priority immediately. And by the way, this is what boring old Starmer has been droning on about for weeks....
There is absolutely no chance of getting the virus under control unless test, trace and isolate are much more effective than currently.
Nothing is going to make track and trace work well in this country.
That's the reality and has to be dealt with.
I suspect that's also applies to varying degrees in all countries.
It works in China, where everyone gets tracked everywhere and the police will arrest you if they think you need testing or isolating.
Pretty much everywhere else in the world, some to most people complying depending on the rules and their enforcement.
In the UK and US, no chance even in theory. People just don't like being told what to do, and many will actively do something, because they're being told not to do it and don't think they'll be caught.
I suspect the people most likely to follow restrictions are the least willing to provide their details and vice versa.
I suspect the most important development yesterday was the publication of the SAGE minutes from September 20. SAGE confirms the view that test, trace and isolate is simply not working, and can only be seen as a major failure by government. It was noted by somebody on here, but I don't think enough attention has been paid to it. This is what the minutes said:
An effective test, trace and isolate (TTI) system is important to reduce the incidence of infections in the community. Estimates of the effectiveness of this system on R are difficult to ascertain. The relatively low levels of engagement with the system (comparing ONS incidence estimates with NHS Test and Trace numbers) coupled with testing delays and likely poor rates of adherence with self-isolation suggests that this system is having a marginal impact on transmission at the moment. Unless the system grows at the same rate as the epidemic, and support is given to people to enable them to adhere to self-isolation, it is likely that the impact of Test, Trace and Isolate will further decline in the future.
That is incredibly gloomy. Poor rates of adherence with self-isolation? Testing delays? Low levels of engagement? Further decline in the future?
It strikes me that this is, as some have been saying, the most significant weakness in delivery of government policy, and should be a priority immediately. And by the way, this is what boring old Starmer has been droning on about for weeks....
There is absolutely no chance of getting the virus under control unless test, trace and isolate are much more effective than currently.
The difficulty is that if you walk into a supermarket and are asked to register your QR code you are subject to 14 days quarantine if someone 2hrs later goes to the same supermarket and then tests positive. That is a big call for people who don't or can't rely on Ocado.
As I noted weeks ago, a friend of mine recently went to Kew Gardens and was asked to register. Kew Gardens - 300 acres of outdoors open for eight hours. The friend didn't register.
That's not true, your app records when you went in and will only inform you of potential for infection if there's an overlap, it doesn't ask you to self isolate even if there is. It only does that if you've got the required number of points.
I suspect the most important development yesterday was the publication of the SAGE minutes from September 20. SAGE confirms the view that test, trace and isolate is simply not working, and can only be seen as a major failure by government. It was noted by somebody on here, but I don't think enough attention has been paid to it. This is what the minutes said:
An effective test, trace and isolate (TTI) system is important to reduce the incidence of infections in the community. Estimates of the effectiveness of this system on R are difficult to ascertain. The relatively low levels of engagement with the system (comparing ONS incidence estimates with NHS Test and Trace numbers) coupled with testing delays and likely poor rates of adherence with self-isolation suggests that this system is having a marginal impact on transmission at the moment. Unless the system grows at the same rate as the epidemic, and support is given to people to enable them to adhere to self-isolation, it is likely that the impact of Test, Trace and Isolate will further decline in the future.
That is incredibly gloomy. Poor rates of adherence with self-isolation? Testing delays? Low levels of engagement? Further decline in the future?
It strikes me that this is, as some have been saying, the most significant weakness in delivery of government policy, and should be a priority immediately. And by the way, this is what boring old Starmer has been droning on about for weeks....
There is absolutely no chance of getting the virus under control unless test, trace and isolate are much more effective than currently.
Nothing is going to make track and trace work well in this country.
That's the reality and has to be dealt with.
I suspect that's also applies to varying degrees in all countries.
It works in China, where everyone gets tracked everywhere and the police will arrest you if they think you need testing or isolating.
Pretty much everywhere else in the world, some to most people complying depending on the rules and their enforcement.
In the UK and US, no chance even in theory. People just don't like being told what to do, and many will actively do something, because they're being told not to do it and don't think they'll be caught.
When we are holding China up as the beacon of governmental efficiency I think it's pretty clear to see why some people think others are losing it.
Once again the state has proved it doesn't have any creative thinking, just more of the same that didn't work.
I think the Daily Star's (!) headline: "Back to Square One" will hit home for many.
Not to say that the rest of Europe isn't in a similar position.
It isn’t though. Italy and Germany are notably - so far - doing OK.
Italy got shocked into compliance after the terrible scenes early this year. Germany, to be stereotypical, is full of Germans and has a very good healthcare sector.
A gathering takes place when two or more persons are present together in the same place in order— (a) to engage in any form of social interaction with each other, or (b) to undertake any other activity with each other.
Thanks. (Arguably that even covers going to the toilet )
I can't see that being enforceable. The definition relies far too much on intent and not at all on the actions/activities being engaged in.
You clearly do things differently in your house.
😊
Let's say i go to the pub with a friend. We're going for a drink. We might quite happily not say a word to each other all evening. Or we might exchange a few words every so often. Or we might not. Are we in a gathering? What is the activity we are undertaking with each other?
We get up to leave. We first go to the gents. We're going for a piss. We might quite happily not say a word to each other. Or we might exchange a few words. Or we might not. Are we in a gathering? What is the activity we are undertaking with each other?
Cottaging?
Lol - so you agree. We are in a gathering! Which was the point i was making.
Either both situations are arguably a gathering. Or neither are.
But only one is actually intended to be prevented by the regulations (going for a drink)
I suspect gatherings will be a lot like pornography, hard to describe but you know it when you see it.
A gathering takes place when two or more persons are present together in the same place in order— (a) to engage in any form of social interaction with each other, or (b) to undertake any other activity with each other.
Thanks. (Arguably that even covers going to the toilet )
I can't see that being enforceable. The definition relies far too much on intent and not at all on the actions/activities being engaged in.
You clearly do things differently in your house.
😊
Let's say i go to the pub with a friend. We're going for a drink. We might quite happily not say a word to each other all evening. Or we might exchange a few words every so often. Or we might not. Are we in a gathering? What is the activity we are undertaking with each other?
We get up to leave. We first go to the gents. We're going for a piss. We might quite happily not say a word to each other. Or we might exchange a few words. Or we might not. Are we in a gathering? What is the activity we are undertaking with each other?
Or another viewpoint - little Tommy tells me he needs to go for a number 2 and is currently in toilet training. We go to the loo together and are definitely engaged in an "activity".
What do the regulations say about that? Is little Tommy up for a £10K fine?
I was walking through a local park last weekend when a couple with a toddler in front of me suddenly whipped out a portable potty, pulled down their kid's trousers and made it sit on the potty to do its business in the middle of a fairly busy path. Seemed to be their first kid, which explains it I guess but still seemed like borderline psychotic behaviour.
Once again the state has proved it doesn't have any creative thinking, just more of the same that didn't work.
I think the Daily Star's (!) headline: "Back to Square One" will hit home for many.
Not to say that the rest of Europe isn't in a similar position.
It isn’t though. Italy and Germany are notably - so far - doing OK.
Italy got shocked into compliance after the terrible scenes early this year. Germany, to be stereotypical, is full of Germans and has a very good healthcare sector.
UK, France and Spain, on the other hand...
This is a war. The cost is lives and livelihoods. There is no comfort in being “as bad as others”.
All this goes to show is that there are only really two binary options. Nothing, or national lockdown (ie March style).
Trying to work with QR codes and fannying around when people aren't following it was destined for failure, you can't control human nature. Not without employing a police state.
I think there's a huge amount of misinformation about who is actually required to self isolate/quarantine under test and trace. My understanding is that the 2hr limits simply create a trigger for further investigation. The idea is then that there is further detailed questioning to determine if you were actually likely to have been in contact with the infected individual.
The NHS Covid app does this automatically - you are only advised to quarantine if you come into close contact for a certain period of time (ie. you can't just walk past them in the street).
The Track and trace system asks questions about when precisely you were present and tries to establish whether you were in contact sufficiently.
But most people don't understand this. Which is why most don't engage with it in the first place.
I suspect the most important development yesterday was the publication of the SAGE minutes from September 20. SAGE confirms the view that test, trace and isolate is simply not working, and can only be seen as a major failure by government. It was noted by somebody on here, but I don't think enough attention has been paid to it. This is what the minutes said:
An effective test, trace and isolate (TTI) system is important to reduce the incidence of infections in the community. Estimates of the effectiveness of this system on R are difficult to ascertain. The relatively low levels of engagement with the system (comparing ONS incidence estimates with NHS Test and Trace numbers) coupled with testing delays and likely poor rates of adherence with self-isolation suggests that this system is having a marginal impact on transmission at the moment. Unless the system grows at the same rate as the epidemic, and support is given to people to enable them to adhere to self-isolation, it is likely that the impact of Test, Trace and Isolate will further decline in the future.
That is incredibly gloomy. Poor rates of adherence with self-isolation? Testing delays? Low levels of engagement? Further decline in the future?
It strikes me that this is, as some have been saying, the most significant weakness in delivery of government policy, and should be a priority immediately. And by the way, this is what boring old Starmer has been droning on about for weeks....
There is absolutely no chance of getting the virus under control unless test, trace and isolate are much more effective than currently.
The difficulty is that if you walk into a supermarket and are asked to register your QR code you are subject to 14 days quarantine if someone 2hrs later goes to the same supermarket and then tests positive. That is a big call for people who don't or can't rely on Ocado.
As I noted weeks ago, a friend of mine recently went to Kew Gardens and was asked to register. Kew Gardens - 300 acres of outdoors open for eight hours. The friend didn't register.
That's not true, your app records when you went in and will only inform you of potential for infection if there's an overlap, it doesn't ask you to self isolate even if there is. It only does that if you've got the required number of points.
Ah well that's interesting and good to know.
Edit: As my friend and I can't be the only ones who had no idea about your explanation I must put that down as yet another govt communication success.
A gathering takes place when two or more persons are present together in the same place in order— (a) to engage in any form of social interaction with each other, or (b) to undertake any other activity with each other.
Thanks. (Arguably that even covers going to the toilet )
I can't see that being enforceable. The definition relies far too much on intent and not at all on the actions/activities being engaged in.
You clearly do things differently in your house.
😊
Let's say i go to the pub with a friend. We're going for a drink. We might quite happily not say a word to each other all evening. Or we might exchange a few words every so often. Or we might not. Are we in a gathering? What is the activity we are undertaking with each other?
We get up to leave. We first go to the gents. We're going for a piss. We might quite happily not say a word to each other. Or we might exchange a few words. Or we might not. Are we in a gathering? What is the activity we are undertaking with each other?
Cottaging?
Lol - so you agree. We are in a gathering! Which was the point i was making.
Either both situations are arguably a gathering. Or neither are.
But only one is actually intended to be prevented by the regulations (going for a drink)
Liverpool is clearly heading for trouble if they'll never piss alone.
A gathering takes place when two or more persons are present together in the same place in order— (a) to engage in any form of social interaction with each other, or (b) to undertake any other activity with each other.
Thanks. (Arguably that even covers going to the toilet )
I can't see that being enforceable. The definition relies far too much on intent and not at all on the actions/activities being engaged in.
You clearly do things differently in your house.
😊
Let's say i go to the pub with a friend. We're going for a drink. We might quite happily not say a word to each other all evening. Or we might exchange a few words every so often. Or we might not. Are we in a gathering? What is the activity we are undertaking with each other?
We get up to leave. We first go to the gents. We're going for a piss. We might quite happily not say a word to each other. Or we might exchange a few words. Or we might not. Are we in a gathering? What is the activity we are undertaking with each other?
Cottaging?
Lol - so you agree. We are in a gathering! Which was the point i was making.
Either both situations are arguably a gathering. Or neither are.
But only one is actually intended to be prevented by the regulations (going for a drink)
I suspect gatherings will be a lot like pornography, hard to describe but you know it when you see it.
Once again the state has proved it doesn't have any creative thinking, just more of the same that didn't work.
I think the Daily Star's (!) headline: "Back to Square One" will hit home for many.
Not to say that the rest of Europe isn't in a similar position.
It isn’t though. Italy and Germany are notably - so far - doing OK.
Italy got shocked into compliance after the terrible scenes early this year. Germany, to be stereotypical, is full of Germans and has a very good healthcare sector.
UK, France and Spain, on the other hand...
This is a war. The cost is lives and livelihoods. There is no comfort in being “as bad as others”.
As a proud Englishman, it is a national embarrassment that our politicians and their supporters are saying we are as bad as France.
I don't ask for much, but being better than France is my main aim for this country.
All this goes to show is that there are only really two binary options. Nothing, or national lockdown (ie March style).
Trying to work with QR codes and fannying around when people aren't following it was destined for failure, you can't control human nature. Not without employing a police state.
One of the worst things about trying to control this disease is the number of asymptomatic carriers, it has made far too many think they're invulnerable.
Surely the definition of an asymptomatic carrier is that they are invulnerable?
I suspect the most important development yesterday was the publication of the SAGE minutes from September 20. SAGE confirms the view that test, trace and isolate is simply not working, and can only be seen as a major failure by government. It was noted by somebody on here, but I don't think enough attention has been paid to it. This is what the minutes said:
An effective test, trace and isolate (TTI) system is important to reduce the incidence of infections in the community. Estimates of the effectiveness of this system on R are difficult to ascertain. The relatively low levels of engagement with the system (comparing ONS incidence estimates with NHS Test and Trace numbers) coupled with testing delays and likely poor rates of adherence with self-isolation suggests that this system is having a marginal impact on transmission at the moment. Unless the system grows at the same rate as the epidemic, and support is given to people to enable them to adhere to self-isolation, it is likely that the impact of Test, Trace and Isolate will further decline in the future.
That is incredibly gloomy. Poor rates of adherence with self-isolation? Testing delays? Low levels of engagement? Further decline in the future?
It strikes me that this is, as some have been saying, the most significant weakness in delivery of government policy, and should be a priority immediately. And by the way, this is what boring old Starmer has been droning on about for weeks....
There is absolutely no chance of getting the virus under control unless test, trace and isolate are much more effective than currently.
Nothing is going to make track and trace work well in this country.
That's the reality and has to be dealt with.
I suspect that's also applies to varying degrees in all countries.
It works in China, where everyone gets tracked everywhere and the police will arrest you if they think you need testing or isolating.
Pretty much everywhere else in the world, some to most people complying depending on the rules and their enforcement.
In the UK and US, no chance even in theory. People just don't like being told what to do, and many will actively do something, because they're being told not to do it and don't think they'll be caught.
I suspect the people most likely to follow restrictions are the least willing to provide their details and vice versa.
An interesting thought, possibly yes. I'm definitely more willing to follow tighter restrictions, if it means not installing a tracking app on my phone.
All this goes to show is that there are only really two binary options. Nothing, or national lockdown (ie March style).
Trying to work with QR codes and fannying around when people aren't following it was destined for failure, you can't control human nature. Not without employing a police state.
One of the worst things about trying to control this disease is the number of asymptomatic carriers, it has made far too many think they're invulnerable.
Surely the definition of an asymptomatic carrier is that they are invulnerable?
What we can see though is that the public (and the government really too), only can follow things in a very very simple way (I'm not saying that people are stupid as individuals, but collectively).
They understood the national lockdown. Simple, straightforward. Stay at home. Only go out to shop if you need to or if you have to work. Thats it.
This localised, multi-tired, multi purpose yes, no maybe, rule of 6, hospitality, 10pm, outside/inside etc etc... It's not working.
Scott, do you really think that is funny? Or even sane?
We see the same hysterical nonsense about Brexit every day. It's boring. It has fed into the perception of the government generally, on both sides actually. Those opposed to Brexit cannot conceive of the government doing anything right so attack everything they do without any attempt to engage in the complexities. Those who favour Brexit, being very well aware of these trends, cut the government more slack than it deserves. It's unhealthy.
It really is time we moved on. Geoff's description of Brexit being a molehill is overstating it. And we are currently somewhere deep in the Andies.
Once again the state has proved it doesn't have any creative thinking, just more of the same that didn't work.
I think the Daily Star's (!) headline: "Back to Square One" will hit home for many.
Not to say that the rest of Europe isn't in a similar position.
It isn’t though. Italy and Germany are notably - so far - doing OK.
Italy got shocked into compliance after the terrible scenes early this year. Germany, to be stereotypical, is full of Germans and has a very good healthcare sector.
UK, France and Spain, on the other hand...
This is a war. The cost is lives and livelihoods. There is no comfort in being “as bad as others”.
As a proud Englishman, it is a national embarrassment that our politicians and their supporters are saying we are as bad as France.
I don't ask for much, but being better than France is my main aim for this country.
I can't think of many things that we are better than the French at right now, except perhaps washing and using deodorant.
Once again the state has proved it doesn't have any creative thinking, just more of the same that didn't work.
I think the Daily Star's (!) headline: "Back to Square One" will hit home for many.
Not to say that the rest of Europe isn't in a similar position.
It isn’t though. Italy and Germany are notably - so far - doing OK.
Italy got shocked into compliance after the terrible scenes early this year. Germany, to be stereotypical, is full of Germans and has a very good healthcare sector.
UK, France and Spain, on the other hand...
It was precisely the terrible scenes from Italy which prompted our own government's actions. So not really an excuse to say Italy was somehow different.
It seems to me that all the talk of "circuit breakers" is bunkum - simply because everyone seems to believe that you have to wait for evidence that they have worked before you relax the regulations. They are probably a not disastrous idea in theory, that fail fundamentally with any understanding of political reality. It's scientists not living in the real world.
You do a circuit breaker if you guarantee 100% that the restrictions imposed will be lifted after two weeks (or whatever the proposed period is). Regardless of what happens to the numbers over that period. If you could do that you might get public and business buy in. A national effort, everyone stay in their homes for two weeks. Break the circuit.
But nobody would be prepared to give that guarantee (look at Sturgeon and her "shut the pubs for 16 days (but it might be longer" policy). And if people have no confidence that the restrictions will be lifted (because numbers will continue to grow for the period of the restrictions and they will be extended) then they will ignore them. Carry on as normal. The pubs/restaurants/cafes/shops will be shut - and everyone will spend the two weeks visiting each others houses outside of the realms of enforcement.
My suggestion of planned circuit breakers (strict lockdowns) 2 weeks every 2 months gets around that. If the politicians/scientists need to brake harder that could be done by extending the length of the following lockdown in advance, rather than the current planned lockdown whilst it is happening.
A gathering takes place when two or more persons are present together in the same place in order— (a) to engage in any form of social interaction with each other, or (b) to undertake any other activity with each other.
Thanks. (Arguably that even covers going to the toilet )
I can't see that being enforceable. The definition relies far too much on intent and not at all on the actions/activities being engaged in.
You clearly do things differently in your house.
😊
Let's say i go to the pub with a friend. We're going for a drink. We might quite happily not say a word to each other all evening. Or we might exchange a few words every so often. Or we might not. Are we in a gathering? What is the activity we are undertaking with each other?
We get up to leave. We first go to the gents. We're going for a piss. We might quite happily not say a word to each other. Or we might exchange a few words. Or we might not. Are we in a gathering? What is the activity we are undertaking with each other?
I hate to say it but I was absolutely right when I said the only option left is a national lockdown.
We completely squandered the time we had bought in July with Johnson messing around telling us all to get back to the pub and work.
I know the PB Tory way is to shift the blame and say it's just the same everywhere but the reality is we had this under control and we once again did nothing to keep it that way.
Scott, do you really think that is funny? Or even sane?
We see the same hysterical nonsense about Brexit every day. It's boring. It has fed into the perception of the government generally, on both sides actually. Those opposed to Brexit cannot conceive of the government doing anything right so attack everything they do without any attempt to engage in the complexities. Those who favour Brexit, being very well aware of these trends, cut the government more slack than it deserves. It's unhealthy.
It really is time we moved on. Geoff's description of Brexit being a molehill is overstating it. And we are currently somewhere deep in the Andies.
I thought it was quite funny. Brexit *is* a shitshow. There’s nothing hysterical about pointing it out.
Once again the state has proved it doesn't have any creative thinking, just more of the same that didn't work.
I think the Daily Star's (!) headline: "Back to Square One" will hit home for many.
Not to say that the rest of Europe isn't in a similar position.
It isn’t though. Italy and Germany are notably - so far - doing OK.
Italy got shocked into compliance after the terrible scenes early this year. Germany, to be stereotypical, is full of Germans and has a very good healthcare sector.
UK, France and Spain, on the other hand...
This is a war. The cost is lives and livelihoods. There is no comfort in being “as bad as others”.
As a proud Englishman, it is a national embarrassment that our politicians and their supporters are saying we are as bad as France.
I don't ask for much, but being better than France is my main aim for this country.
I can't think of many things that we are better than the French at right now, except perhaps washing and using deodorant.
We're better at cricket than them, we've won more rugby world cups than them and Wales combined, English is the lngua franca of the world.
It's a meeting with people who don't live with you, for purely social reasons.
There are some exceptions, so for example my brother and his wife form a 'bubble' with her mother who lives alone, which means that they can see each other but no-one else.
That’s fine in a home, but in a pub? I can be sat at the same table as someone, someone I may not even know, but have no social contact with them. A gathering?
I sit at an adjacent table to somebody (who I may or may not know) and engage the in conversation. A gathering?
I know this seems like nitpicking but when we we discussing the “Tier 2” type regulations the other day, people covered by them said that they were universally being turned a blind eye to. Don’t ask don’t tell. It is obvious that doing this is the only way for pubs and restaurants to be remotely viable in Tier 2 restricted areas.
However if you are going to go down the “blind eye” route, it is quite useful to actually know whether you are in danger of actually being prosecuted.
What if pubs put in loads of small tables for example?
Pubs are IMO easy to understand.
Tables should be socially distanced (1.5m apart indoors), and you should only be on a table with your own 'gathering' - this is either your group of six, or your own household according to your area's risk zone.
Not quite. A gathering is more than a group of six. No larger gathering is now lawful unless a specific law allows it! (Like living in North Korea). Where it is lawful (eg going to church) groups of six should not 'mingle'. No-one knows what that means. Social distancing as such is not as yet enforced in law.
Under Tier 2 regulations a gathering is a group of 2 or more (subject to all the exceptions). So it potentially covers casual conversations. And as stated, social distancing is not enforced in law. So the example given of pubs is just recommended guidance. It doesn't actually get to the crux of whether you are in a legal gathering or not.
All this goes to show is that there are only really two binary options. Nothing, or national lockdown (ie March style).
Trying to work with QR codes and fannying around when people aren't following it was destined for failure, you can't control human nature. Not without employing a police state.
I think there's a huge amount of misinformation about who is actually required to self isolate/quarantine under test and trace. My understanding is that the 2hr limits simply create a trigger for further investigation. The idea is then that there is further detailed questioning to determine if you were actually likely to have been in contact with the infected individual.
The NHS Covid app does this automatically - you are only advised to quarantine if you come into close contact for a certain period of time (ie. you can't just walk past them in the street).
The Track and trace system asks questions about when precisely you were present and tries to establish whether you were in contact sufficiently.
But most people don't understand this. Which is why most don't engage with it in the first place.
As I said to @MaxPB this is government communications not working again.
Where has this information been displayed? Don't blame the people for not understanding something that has not been explained to them by the govt who launched the app.
I hate to say it but I was absolutely right when I said the only option left is a national lockdown.
We completely squandered the time we had bought in July with Johnson messing around telling us all to get back to the pub and work.
I know the PB Tory way is to shift the blame and say it's just the same everywhere but the reality is we had this under control and we once again did nothing to keep it that way.
We can't stay locked down forever and your bizarre idea of a country of pubs that only open at lunchtime is a complete and utter non-starter. We need to open up as best as we can finding a way to live with this.
As a great lady once said There Is No Alternative.
Scott, do you really think that is funny? Or even sane?
We see the same hysterical nonsense about Brexit every day. It's boring. It has fed into the perception of the government generally, on both sides actually. Those opposed to Brexit cannot conceive of the government doing anything right so attack everything they do without any attempt to engage in the complexities. Those who favour Brexit, being very well aware of these trends, cut the government more slack than it deserves. It's unhealthy.
It really is time we moved on. Geoff's description of Brexit being a molehill is overstating it. And we are currently somewhere deep in the Andies.
I thought it was quite funny. Brexit *is* a shitshow. There’s nothing hysterical about pointing it out.
What, an IT department being a set of ballerinas? I mean, really?
Scott, do you really think that is funny? Or even sane?
We see the same hysterical nonsense about Brexit every day. It's boring. It has fed into the perception of the government generally, on both sides actually. Those opposed to Brexit cannot conceive of the government doing anything right so attack everything they do without any attempt to engage in the complexities. Those who favour Brexit, being very well aware of these trends, cut the government more slack than it deserves. It's unhealthy.
It really is time we moved on. Geoff's description of Brexit being a molehill is overstating it. And we are currently somewhere deep in the Andies.
Brexit might well be a molehill, but no deal Brexit, in the middle of a pandemic, with little to no preparation is a bit of a mountain.
How do you think an avoidable medicine shortage during a pandemic will play out?
Once again the state has proved it doesn't have any creative thinking, just more of the same that didn't work.
I think the Daily Star's (!) headline: "Back to Square One" will hit home for many.
Not to say that the rest of Europe isn't in a similar position.
It isn’t though. Italy and Germany are notably - so far - doing OK.
Italy got shocked into compliance after the terrible scenes early this year. Germany, to be stereotypical, is full of Germans and has a very good healthcare sector.
UK, France and Spain, on the other hand...
It was precisely the terrible scenes from Italy which prompted our own government's actions. So not really an excuse to say Italy was somehow different.
Italy also has an extraordinarily conformist culture - not in terms of following the authorities, but in following each other. That has really helped ensure everyone takes precautions.
I suspect the most important development yesterday was the publication of the SAGE minutes from September 20. SAGE confirms the view that test, trace and isolate is simply not working, and can only be seen as a major failure by government. It was noted by somebody on here, but I don't think enough attention has been paid to it. This is what the minutes said:
An effective test, trace and isolate (TTI) system is important to reduce the incidence of infections in the community. Estimates of the effectiveness of this system on R are difficult to ascertain. The relatively low levels of engagement with the system (comparing ONS incidence estimates with NHS Test and Trace numbers) coupled with testing delays and likely poor rates of adherence with self-isolation suggests that this system is having a marginal impact on transmission at the moment. Unless the system grows at the same rate as the epidemic, and support is given to people to enable them to adhere to self-isolation, it is likely that the impact of Test, Trace and Isolate will further decline in the future.
That is incredibly gloomy. Poor rates of adherence with self-isolation? Testing delays? Low levels of engagement? Further decline in the future?
It strikes me that this is, as some have been saying, the most significant weakness in delivery of government policy, and should be a priority immediately. And by the way, this is what boring old Starmer has been droning on about for weeks....
There is absolutely no chance of getting the virus under control unless test, trace and isolate are much more effective than currently.
Nothing is going to make track and trace work well in this country.
That's the reality and has to be dealt with.
I suspect that's also applies to varying degrees in all countries.
Actually I agree with you now - the numbers are just too large, But back in July and August, when numbers of tests were quite high but infections were quite low, it should have been possible for a "world-beating" test/trace/isolate system to work very well if it had been efficient and localised. Those told to isolate could have been checked up on.
I guess my point is that if this had been done in July/August as promised, we may well have been able to avoid the situation we have now, where infections spread from September, are now out of control, and draconian restrictions are pretty inevitable.
I think almost as damning as the call for something rather more like a lockdown than even Liverpool from SAGE was the revelation that Test and Trace is having a negligible effect on the progression of the virus.
I suspect the most important development yesterday was the publication of the SAGE minutes from September 20. SAGE confirms the view that test, trace and isolate is simply not working, and can only be seen as a major failure by government. It was noted by somebody on here, but I don't think enough attention has been paid to it. This is what the minutes said:
An effective test, trace and isolate (TTI) system is important to reduce the incidence of infections in the community. Estimates of the effectiveness of this system on R are difficult to ascertain. The relatively low levels of engagement with the system (comparing ONS incidence estimates with NHS Test and Trace numbers) coupled with testing delays and likely poor rates of adherence with self-isolation suggests that this system is having a marginal impact on transmission at the moment. Unless the system grows at the same rate as the epidemic, and support is given to people to enable them to adhere to self-isolation, it is likely that the impact of Test, Trace and Isolate will further decline in the future.
That is incredibly gloomy. Poor rates of adherence with self-isolation? Testing delays? Low levels of engagement? Further decline in the future?
It strikes me that this is, as some have been saying, the most significant weakness in delivery of government policy, and should be a priority immediately. And by the way, this is what boring old Starmer has been droning on about for weeks....
There is absolutely no chance of getting the virus under control unless test, trace and isolate are much more effective than currently.
The difficulty is that if you walk into a supermarket and are asked to register your QR code you are subject to 14 days quarantine if someone 2hrs later goes to the same supermarket and then tests positive. That is a big call for people who don't or can't rely on Ocado.
As I noted weeks ago, a friend of mine recently went to Kew Gardens and was asked to register. Kew Gardens - 300 acres of outdoors open for eight hours. The friend didn't register.
That's not true, your app records when you went in and will only inform you of potential for infection if there's an overlap, it doesn't ask you to self isolate even if there is. It only does that if you've got the required number of points.
Ah well that's interesting and good to know.
Edit: As my friend and I can't be the only ones who had no idea about your explanation I must put that down as yet another govt communication success.
Yes, no doubt. What's interesting is the stats coming out of this, so far only one person in the country has received a self isolation notice that can be traced back to a hospitality venue because the actual crossover between different social groups is fairly low.
A gathering takes place when two or more persons are present together in the same place in order— (a) to engage in any form of social interaction with each other, or (b) to undertake any other activity with each other.
Thanks. (Arguably that even covers going to the toilet )
I can't see that being enforceable. The definition relies far too much on intent and not at all on the actions/activities being engaged in.
You clearly do things differently in your house.
😊
Let's say i go to the pub with a friend. We're going for a drink. We might quite happily not say a word to each other all evening. Or we might exchange a few words every so often. Or we might not. Are we in a gathering? What is the activity we are undertaking with each other?
We get up to leave. We first go to the gents. We're going for a piss. We might quite happily not say a word to each other. Or we might exchange a few words. Or we might not. Are we in a gathering? What is the activity we are undertaking with each other?
Cottaging?
It's bad form to talk whilst cottaging.
I thought it was bad form to talk whilst using glory holes?
I hate to say it but I was absolutely right when I said the only option left is a national lockdown.
We completely squandered the time we had bought in July with Johnson messing around telling us all to get back to the pub and work.
I know the PB Tory way is to shift the blame and say it's just the same everywhere but the reality is we had this under control and we once again did nothing to keep it that way.
We can't stay locked down forever and your bizarre idea of a country of pubs that only open at lunchtime is a complete and utter non-starter. We need to open up as best as we can finding a way to live with this.
As a great lady once said There Is No Alternative.
I didn't say pubs open at lunchtime was part of the lockdown, I said that when we open up from the lockdown. During the lockdown they'd all be closed with Government support.
This dishonesty from you is just trying to undermine the idea that I was right - and you know it. But you're too much of a coward here to admit it.
Scott, do you really think that is funny? Or even sane?
We see the same hysterical nonsense about Brexit every day. It's boring. It has fed into the perception of the government generally, on both sides actually. Those opposed to Brexit cannot conceive of the government doing anything right so attack everything they do without any attempt to engage in the complexities. Those who favour Brexit, being very well aware of these trends, cut the government more slack than it deserves. It's unhealthy.
It really is time we moved on. Geoff's description of Brexit being a molehill is overstating it. And we are currently somewhere deep in the Andies.
I thought it was quite funny. Brexit *is* a shitshow. There’s nothing hysterical about pointing it out.
What, an IT department being a set of ballerinas? I mean, really?
You've never encountered a primadonna in an IT department?
All this goes to show is that there are only really two binary options. Nothing, or national lockdown (ie March style).
Trying to work with QR codes and fannying around when people aren't following it was destined for failure, you can't control human nature. Not without employing a police state.
One of the worst things about trying to control this disease is the number of asymptomatic carriers, it has made far too many think they're invulnerable.
Surely the definition of an asymptomatic carrier is that they are invulnerable?
And there seem to be a lot of them...
Invulnerable to spreading it to others.
Replace Little Tommy with 80 year old incontinent Grandma...
Scott, do you really think that is funny? Or even sane?
We see the same hysterical nonsense about Brexit every day. It's boring. It has fed into the perception of the government generally, on both sides actually. Those opposed to Brexit cannot conceive of the government doing anything right so attack everything they do without any attempt to engage in the complexities. Those who favour Brexit, being very well aware of these trends, cut the government more slack than it deserves. It's unhealthy.
It really is time we moved on. Geoff's description of Brexit being a molehill is overstating it. And we are currently somewhere deep in the Andies.
Well okay, I wouldn't want to overstate it. Not even a molehill then.
I suspect the most important development yesterday was the publication of the SAGE minutes from September 20. SAGE confirms the view that test, trace and isolate is simply not working, and can only be seen as a major failure by government. It was noted by somebody on here, but I don't think enough attention has been paid to it. This is what the minutes said:
An effective test, trace and isolate (TTI) system is important to reduce the incidence of infections in the community. Estimates of the effectiveness of this system on R are difficult to ascertain. The relatively low levels of engagement with the system (comparing ONS incidence estimates with NHS Test and Trace numbers) coupled with testing delays and likely poor rates of adherence with self-isolation suggests that this system is having a marginal impact on transmission at the moment. Unless the system grows at the same rate as the epidemic, and support is given to people to enable them to adhere to self-isolation, it is likely that the impact of Test, Trace and Isolate will further decline in the future.
That is incredibly gloomy. Poor rates of adherence with self-isolation? Testing delays? Low levels of engagement? Further decline in the future?
It strikes me that this is, as some have been saying, the most significant weakness in delivery of government policy, and should be a priority immediately. And by the way, this is what boring old Starmer has been droning on about for weeks....
There is absolutely no chance of getting the virus under control unless test, trace and isolate are much more effective than currently.
Nothing is going to make track and trace work well in this country.
That's the reality and has to be dealt with.
I suspect that's also applies to varying degrees in all countries.
Actually I agree with you now - the numbers are just too large, But back in July and August, when numbers of tests were quite high but infections were quite low, it should have been possible for a "world-beating" test/trace/isolate system to work very well if it had been efficient and localised. Those told to isolate could have been checked up on.
I guess my point is that if this had been done in July/August as promised, we may well have been able to avoid the situation we have now, where infections spread from September, are now out of control, and draconian restrictions are pretty inevitable.
BiB - that's the problem, isn't it? It needs to be quite authoritarian to work - I can guarantee the media would have done stories about people being harassed and how horrible it all was.
A gathering takes place when two or more persons are present together in the same place in order— (a) to engage in any form of social interaction with each other, or (b) to undertake any other activity with each other.
Thanks. (Arguably that even covers going to the toilet )
I can't see that being enforceable. The definition relies far too much on intent and not at all on the actions/activities being engaged in.
You clearly do things differently in your house.
😊
Let's say i go to the pub with a friend. We're going for a drink. We might quite happily not say a word to each other all evening. Or we might exchange a few words every so often. Or we might not. Are we in a gathering? What is the activity we are undertaking with each other?
We get up to leave. We first go to the gents. We're going for a piss. We might quite happily not say a word to each other. Or we might exchange a few words. Or we might not. Are we in a gathering? What is the activity we are undertaking with each other?
Cottaging?
It's bad form to talk whilst cottaging.
I thought it was bad form to talk whilst using glory holes?
Scott, do you really think that is funny? Or even sane?
We see the same hysterical nonsense about Brexit every day. It's boring. It has fed into the perception of the government generally, on both sides actually. Those opposed to Brexit cannot conceive of the government doing anything right so attack everything they do without any attempt to engage in the complexities. Those who favour Brexit, being very well aware of these trends, cut the government more slack than it deserves. It's unhealthy.
It really is time we moved on. Geoff's description of Brexit being a molehill is overstating it. And we are currently somewhere deep in the Andies.
I thought it was quite funny. Brexit *is* a shitshow. There’s nothing hysterical about pointing it out.
What, an IT department being a set of ballerinas? I mean, really?
Turn the radio on for Today. Within two minutes I am shouting at it. Didn't catch the name but some science advisor seemed to saying unless we have a full national lockdown the virus will double and then double again and then double again ad infinitum until we do lockdown.
Sage recommended a 2 to 3 circuit breaker in September but to close down the whole economy is irresponsible, especially as large parts do not have the levels of infection as the metro areas
Andy Burnham saying he thinks we should have a circuit breaker thereby wanting to close down the whole economy rather than address why his area is in the situation it is. Also as in the previous lockdown who is to guarantee a circuit break will last for 3 weeks and how we would ever get out of it
I believe the present 3 tiers is the best way forward and the rules are more easily understood
In the end there are those who want complete lockdown and others who want the exact opposite, while there are many who just want the government to fail because they are implementing Brexit
I do not envy any leader at present and in all this furore it needs to be noted that a lot of tier 3 requirements were implemented in Scotland by Nicola Sturgeon three weeks ago, and today we have Drakeford threatening to close the Welsh border, yes he really is
Name one person who wants the government to fail because they implemented brexit, what utter tosh.
There are many who have never accepted brexit and never will
On the contrary there are many Brexit obsessives who are blind to or forgive Johnson’s failings, because they prize Brexit above everything else and view the whole world through that lens.
Brexit does nothing to help us right now. Who gives a shit about Brexit?
I do. It's the most corrosive policy in my lifetime and until all the architects of it are long gone -particularly Johnson-the country will continue its drift into the third world.
Once again the state has proved it doesn't have any creative thinking, just more of the same that didn't work.
I think the Daily Star's (!) headline: "Back to Square One" will hit home for many.
Not to say that the rest of Europe isn't in a similar position.
It isn’t though. Italy and Germany are notably - so far - doing OK.
Italy got shocked into compliance after the terrible scenes early this year. Germany, to be stereotypical, is full of Germans and has a very good healthcare sector.
UK, France and Spain, on the other hand...
This is a war. The cost is lives and livelihoods. There is no comfort in being “as bad as others”.
As a proud Englishman, it is a national embarrassment that our politicians and their supporters are saying we are as bad as France.
I don't ask for much, but being better than France is my main aim for this country.
I can't think of many things that we are better than the French at right now, except perhaps washing and using deodorant.
We're better at cricket than them, we've won more rugby world cups than them and Wales combined, English is the lngua franca of the world.
To be fair I don't think the French would claim to be competitive in the field of cricket. It would be like saying the French are better looking than us. I mean, it's true, but only one side is actually trying.
I suspect the most important development yesterday was the publication of the SAGE minutes from September 20. SAGE confirms the view that test, trace and isolate is simply not working, and can only be seen as a major failure by government. It was noted by somebody on here, but I don't think enough attention has been paid to it. This is what the minutes said:
An effective test, trace and isolate (TTI) system is important to reduce the incidence of infections in the community. Estimates of the effectiveness of this system on R are difficult to ascertain. The relatively low levels of engagement with the system (comparing ONS incidence estimates with NHS Test and Trace numbers) coupled with testing delays and likely poor rates of adherence with self-isolation suggests that this system is having a marginal impact on transmission at the moment. Unless the system grows at the same rate as the epidemic, and support is given to people to enable them to adhere to self-isolation, it is likely that the impact of Test, Trace and Isolate will further decline in the future.
That is incredibly gloomy. Poor rates of adherence with self-isolation? Testing delays? Low levels of engagement? Further decline in the future?
It strikes me that this is, as some have been saying, the most significant weakness in delivery of government policy, and should be a priority immediately. And by the way, this is what boring old Starmer has been droning on about for weeks....
There is absolutely no chance of getting the virus under control unless test, trace and isolate are much more effective than currently.
Nothing is going to make track and trace work well in this country.
That's the reality and has to be dealt with.
I suspect that's also applies to varying degrees in all countries.
Actually I agree with you now - the numbers are just too large, But back in July and August, when numbers of tests were quite high but infections were quite low, it should have been possible for a "world-beating" test/trace/isolate system to work very well if it had been efficient and localised. Those told to isolate could have been checked up on.
I guess my point is that if this had been done in July/August as promised, we may well have been able to avoid the situation we have now, where infections spread from September, are now out of control, and draconian restrictions are pretty inevitable.
Spot on - and exactly what I've been getting at. We had time in July but we completely squandered it.
Just over a month ago Johnson was saying get back to work!
I suspect the most important development yesterday was the publication of the SAGE minutes from September 20. SAGE confirms the view that test, trace and isolate is simply not working, and can only be seen as a major failure by government. It was noted by somebody on here, but I don't think enough attention has been paid to it. This is what the minutes said:
An effective test, trace and isolate (TTI) system is important to reduce the incidence of infections in the community. Estimates of the effectiveness of this system on R are difficult to ascertain. The relatively low levels of engagement with the system (comparing ONS incidence estimates with NHS Test and Trace numbers) coupled with testing delays and likely poor rates of adherence with self-isolation suggests that this system is having a marginal impact on transmission at the moment. Unless the system grows at the same rate as the epidemic, and support is given to people to enable them to adhere to self-isolation, it is likely that the impact of Test, Trace and Isolate will further decline in the future.
That is incredibly gloomy. Poor rates of adherence with self-isolation? Testing delays? Low levels of engagement? Further decline in the future?
It strikes me that this is, as some have been saying, the most significant weakness in delivery of government policy, and should be a priority immediately. And by the way, this is what boring old Starmer has been droning on about for weeks....
There is absolutely no chance of getting the virus under control unless test, trace and isolate are much more effective than currently.
Nothing is going to make track and trace work well in this country.
That's the reality and has to be dealt with.
I suspect that's also applies to varying degrees in all countries.
The scientists themselves say that our system is currently of 'marginal effect' in terms of limiting infection. Fro a £12bn investment.
Again, mass testing, while a bit less accurate, completely eliminates the track and trace aspect. You just isolate everyone infected.
I suspect the most important development yesterday was the publication of the SAGE minutes from September 20. SAGE confirms the view that test, trace and isolate is simply not working, and can only be seen as a major failure by government. It was noted by somebody on here, but I don't think enough attention has been paid to it. This is what the minutes said:
An effective test, trace and isolate (TTI) system is important to reduce the incidence of infections in the community. Estimates of the effectiveness of this system on R are difficult to ascertain. The relatively low levels of engagement with the system (comparing ONS incidence estimates with NHS Test and Trace numbers) coupled with testing delays and likely poor rates of adherence with self-isolation suggests that this system is having a marginal impact on transmission at the moment. Unless the system grows at the same rate as the epidemic, and support is given to people to enable them to adhere to self-isolation, it is likely that the impact of Test, Trace and Isolate will further decline in the future.
That is incredibly gloomy. Poor rates of adherence with self-isolation? Testing delays? Low levels of engagement? Further decline in the future?
It strikes me that this is, as some have been saying, the most significant weakness in delivery of government policy, and should be a priority immediately. And by the way, this is what boring old Starmer has been droning on about for weeks....
There is absolutely no chance of getting the virus under control unless test, trace and isolate are much more effective than currently.
The difficulty is that if you walk into a supermarket and are asked to register your QR code you are subject to 14 days quarantine if someone 2hrs later goes to the same supermarket and then tests positive. That is a big call for people who don't or can't rely on Ocado.
As I noted weeks ago, a friend of mine recently went to Kew Gardens and was asked to register. Kew Gardens - 300 acres of outdoors open for eight hours. The friend didn't register.
That's not true, your app records when you went in and will only inform you of potential for infection if there's an overlap, it doesn't ask you to self isolate even if there is. It only does that if you've got the required number of points.
Ah well that's interesting and good to know.
Edit: As my friend and I can't be the only ones who had no idea about your explanation I must put that down as yet another govt communication success.
Yes, no doubt. What's interesting is the stats coming out of this, so far only one person in the country has received a self isolation notice that can be traced back to a hospitality venue because the actual crossover between different social groups is fairly low.
Interesting x2. As you would maybe guess so to see it proven...
Scott, do you really think that is funny? Or even sane?
We see the same hysterical nonsense about Brexit every day. It's boring. It has fed into the perception of the government generally, on both sides actually. Those opposed to Brexit cannot conceive of the government doing anything right so attack everything they do without any attempt to engage in the complexities. Those who favour Brexit, being very well aware of these trends, cut the government more slack than it deserves. It's unhealthy.
It really is time we moved on. Geoff's description of Brexit being a molehill is overstating it. And we are currently somewhere deep in the Andies.
I thought it was quite funny. Brexit *is* a shitshow. There’s nothing hysterical about pointing it out.
What, an IT department being a set of ballerinas? I mean, really?
It’s an obvious riff on the “Fatima’s next job is in cyber“ campaign.
I suspect the most important development yesterday was the publication of the SAGE minutes from September 20. SAGE confirms the view that test, trace and isolate is simply not working, and can only be seen as a major failure by government. It was noted by somebody on here, but I don't think enough attention has been paid to it. This is what the minutes said:
An effective test, trace and isolate (TTI) system is important to reduce the incidence of infections in the community. Estimates of the effectiveness of this system on R are difficult to ascertain. The relatively low levels of engagement with the system (comparing ONS incidence estimates with NHS Test and Trace numbers) coupled with testing delays and likely poor rates of adherence with self-isolation suggests that this system is having a marginal impact on transmission at the moment. Unless the system grows at the same rate as the epidemic, and support is given to people to enable them to adhere to self-isolation, it is likely that the impact of Test, Trace and Isolate will further decline in the future.
That is incredibly gloomy. Poor rates of adherence with self-isolation? Testing delays? Low levels of engagement? Further decline in the future?
It strikes me that this is, as some have been saying, the most significant weakness in delivery of government policy, and should be a priority immediately. And by the way, this is what boring old Starmer has been droning on about for weeks....
There is absolutely no chance of getting the virus under control unless test, trace and isolate are much more effective than currently.
The difficulty is that if you walk into a supermarket and are asked to register your QR code you are subject to 14 days quarantine if someone 2hrs later goes to the same supermarket and then tests positive. That is a big call for people who don't or can't rely on Ocado.
As I noted weeks ago, a friend of mine recently went to Kew Gardens and was asked to register. Kew Gardens - 300 acres of outdoors open for eight hours. The friend didn't register.
That's not true, your app records when you went in and will only inform you of potential for infection if there's an overlap, it doesn't ask you to self isolate even if there is. It only does that if you've got the required number of points.
Ah well that's interesting and good to know.
Edit: As my friend and I can't be the only ones who had no idea about your explanation I must put that down as yet another govt communication success.
As of last week:
Time running: 2 weeks Number of venue check ins: 1.5m Number of alerts sent: 1
Once again the state has proved it doesn't have any creative thinking, just more of the same that didn't work.
Are we expecting much by way of effort to enforce, except in the most egregious breaches? It is dressed up as law but is effectively guidance.
Then why bother having it? It's like the fines for breaching quarantine, they exist only in theory so no one bothers with them. Even self isolation is in that boat.
There will be some compliance with new restrictions so potential infection will be reduced.
But the people most likely to comply with new restrictions are probably the people least likely to become infected.
I've always said that each country and each demographic has its restrictions tolerance and own cost/benefit decision.
With 90% of infected students asymptomatic there's no hope of anything but minor restrictions of the young.
Agree. Plus unemployment figures out today show that the brunt of the economic effect is being felt by young people. So their "sacrifice" is doubly difficult to enforce/comply with given their usually asymptomatic condition.
"Usually asymptomatic condition."
Really?
Hopefully not relying on the "of all people tested, 86% were not symptomatic at the moment of testing" statistic, because following up demonstrates that four in five of those went on to develop symptoms and were therefore pre-symptomatic rather than asymptomatic.
But I'm not aware of any figures, studies, or evidence that "young people" (however defined. Under 18? 18-24? 18-30?) are usually asymptomatic, although the Allison Pearsons of the world spout their opinions as facts that they are.
Scott, do you really think that is funny? Or even sane?
We see the same hysterical nonsense about Brexit every day. It's boring. It has fed into the perception of the government generally, on both sides actually. Those opposed to Brexit cannot conceive of the government doing anything right so attack everything they do without any attempt to engage in the complexities. Those who favour Brexit, being very well aware of these trends, cut the government more slack than it deserves. It's unhealthy.
It really is time we moved on. Geoff's description of Brexit being a molehill is overstating it. And we are currently somewhere deep in the Andies.
I thought it was quite funny. Brexit *is* a shitshow. There’s nothing hysterical about pointing it out.
What, an IT department being a set of ballerinas? I mean, really?
I think maybe you aren’t aware of the origin of the joke. Which is The Govt’s advert yesterday suggesting ballerinas could retrain as “cyber” professionals.
I suspect the most important development yesterday was the publication of the SAGE minutes from September 20. SAGE confirms the view that test, trace and isolate is simply not working, and can only be seen as a major failure by government. It was noted by somebody on here, but I don't think enough attention has been paid to it. This is what the minutes said:
An effective test, trace and isolate (TTI) system is important to reduce the incidence of infections in the community. Estimates of the effectiveness of this system on R are difficult to ascertain. The relatively low levels of engagement with the system (comparing ONS incidence estimates with NHS Test and Trace numbers) coupled with testing delays and likely poor rates of adherence with self-isolation suggests that this system is having a marginal impact on transmission at the moment. Unless the system grows at the same rate as the epidemic, and support is given to people to enable them to adhere to self-isolation, it is likely that the impact of Test, Trace and Isolate will further decline in the future.
That is incredibly gloomy. Poor rates of adherence with self-isolation? Testing delays? Low levels of engagement? Further decline in the future?
It strikes me that this is, as some have been saying, the most significant weakness in delivery of government policy, and should be a priority immediately. And by the way, this is what boring old Starmer has been droning on about for weeks....
There is absolutely no chance of getting the virus under control unless test, trace and isolate are much more effective than currently.
The difficulty is that if you walk into a supermarket and are asked to register your QR code you are subject to 14 days quarantine if someone 2hrs later goes to the same supermarket and then tests positive. That is a big call for people who don't or can't rely on Ocado.
As I noted weeks ago, a friend of mine recently went to Kew Gardens and was asked to register. Kew Gardens - 300 acres of outdoors open for eight hours. The friend didn't register.
No, that is not how it works. The 14 day quarantine requirement is only triggered through the bluetooth proximity detection - you would have to be recorded as spending 15mins in close proximity to someone who then tests positive to be sent that requirement.
The QR recording is a completely separate system for track and trace.
Once again the state has proved it doesn't have any creative thinking, just more of the same that didn't work.
I think the Daily Star's (!) headline: "Back to Square One" will hit home for many.
Not to say that the rest of Europe isn't in a similar position.
It isn’t though. Italy and Germany are notably - so far - doing OK.
Italy got shocked into compliance after the terrible scenes early this year. Germany, to be stereotypical, is full of Germans and has a very good healthcare sector.
UK, France and Spain, on the other hand...
It was precisely the terrible scenes from Italy which prompted our own government's actions. So not really an excuse to say Italy was somehow different.
Italy also has an extraordinarily conformist culture - not in terms of following the authorities, but in following each other. That has really helped ensure everyone takes precautions.
I suspect the most important development yesterday was the publication of the SAGE minutes from September 20. SAGE confirms the view that test, trace and isolate is simply not working, and can only be seen as a major failure by government. It was noted by somebody on here, but I don't think enough attention has been paid to it. This is what the minutes said:
An effective test, trace and isolate (TTI) system is important to reduce the incidence of infections in the community. Estimates of the effectiveness of this system on R are difficult to ascertain. The relatively low levels of engagement with the system (comparing ONS incidence estimates with NHS Test and Trace numbers) coupled with testing delays and likely poor rates of adherence with self-isolation suggests that this system is having a marginal impact on transmission at the moment. Unless the system grows at the same rate as the epidemic, and support is given to people to enable them to adhere to self-isolation, it is likely that the impact of Test, Trace and Isolate will further decline in the future.
That is incredibly gloomy. Poor rates of adherence with self-isolation? Testing delays? Low levels of engagement? Further decline in the future?
It strikes me that this is, as some have been saying, the most significant weakness in delivery of government policy, and should be a priority immediately. And by the way, this is what boring old Starmer has been droning on about for weeks....
There is absolutely no chance of getting the virus under control unless test, trace and isolate are much more effective than currently.
Nothing is going to make track and trace work well in this country.
That's the reality and has to be dealt with.
I suspect that's also applies to varying degrees in all countries.
Actually I agree with you now - the numbers are just too large, But back in July and August, when numbers of tests were quite high but infections were quite low, it should have been possible for a "world-beating" test/trace/isolate system to work very well if it had been efficient and localised. Those told to isolate could have been checked up on.
I guess my point is that if this had been done in July/August as promised, we may well have been able to avoid the situation we have now, where infections spread from September, are now out of control, and draconian restrictions are pretty inevitable.
BiB - that's the problem, isn't it? It needs to be quite authoritarian to work - I can guarantee the media would have done stories about people being harassed and how horrible it all was.
Yes. Unless you can force people to give their details and install apps, and arrest those not complying, it's not going to generate engagement from the public.
Are we about to see police roadblocks on roads out of the Liverpool high risk area, asking people where they're going and turning them around if they don't have a good reason?
Once again the state has proved it doesn't have any creative thinking, just more of the same that didn't work.
Are we expecting much by way of effort to enforce, except in the most egregious breaches? It is dressed up as law but is effectively guidance.
Then why bother having it? It's like the fines for breaching quarantine, they exist only in theory so no one bothers with them. Even self isolation is in that boat.
There will be some compliance with new restrictions so potential infection will be reduced.
But the people most likely to comply with new restrictions are probably the people least likely to become infected.
With 90% of infected students asymptomatic there's no hope of anything but minor restrictions of the young.
Again, would be addressed directly by a mass testing system.
I like this idea that a national lockdown would destroy the economy. The economy is already destroyed.
No it's not. It's operating at about 90% of its pre-Covid peak. Which means that it is operating at roughly the same level it was in 2010. Which is a serious set back requiring structural adjustment. But destroyed?
Scott, do you really think that is funny? Or even sane?
We see the same hysterical nonsense about Brexit every day. It's boring. It has fed into the perception of the government generally, on both sides actually. Those opposed to Brexit cannot conceive of the government doing anything right so attack everything they do without any attempt to engage in the complexities. Those who favour Brexit, being very well aware of these trends, cut the government more slack than it deserves. It's unhealthy.
It really is time we moved on. Geoff's description of Brexit being a molehill is overstating it. And we are currently somewhere deep in the Andies.
I thought it was quite funny. Brexit *is* a shitshow. There’s nothing hysterical about pointing it out.
What, an IT department being a set of ballerinas? I mean, really?
It’s an obvious riff on the “Fatima’s next job is in cyber“ campaign.
Yes without seeing that ad campaign Scott's post would make zero sense and seem insane.
Scott, do you really think that is funny? Or even sane?
We see the same hysterical nonsense about Brexit every day. It's boring. It has fed into the perception of the government generally, on both sides actually. Those opposed to Brexit cannot conceive of the government doing anything right so attack everything they do without any attempt to engage in the complexities. Those who favour Brexit, being very well aware of these trends, cut the government more slack than it deserves. It's unhealthy.
It really is time we moved on. Geoff's description of Brexit being a molehill is overstating it. And we are currently somewhere deep in the Andies.
I thought it was quite funny. Brexit *is* a shitshow. There’s nothing hysterical about pointing it out.
What, an IT department being a set of ballerinas? I mean, really?
It’s an obvious riff on the “Fatima’s next job is in cyber“ campaign.
Once again the state has proved it doesn't have any creative thinking, just more of the same that didn't work.
I think the Daily Star's (!) headline: "Back to Square One" will hit home for many.
Not to say that the rest of Europe isn't in a similar position.
It isn’t though. Italy and Germany are notably - so far - doing OK.
Italy got shocked into compliance after the terrible scenes early this year. Germany, to be stereotypical, is full of Germans and has a very good healthcare sector.
UK, France and Spain, on the other hand...
This is a war. The cost is lives and livelihoods. There is no comfort in being “as bad as others”.
As a proud Englishman, it is a national embarrassment that our politicians and their supporters are saying we are as bad as France.
I don't ask for much, but being better than France is my main aim for this country.
I can't think of many things that we are better than the French at right now, except perhaps washing and using deodorant.
We're better at cricket than them, we've won more rugby world cups than them and Wales combined, English is the lngua franca of the world.
To be fair I don't think the French would claim to be competitive in the field of cricket. It would be like saying the French are better looking than us. I mean, it's true, but only one side is actually trying.
Oh they are, they've played ICC competitions, and won a silver medal for cricket at the Olympics.
I like this idea that a national lockdown would destroy the economy. The economy is already destroyed.
No it's not. It's operating at about 90% of its pre-Covid peak. Which means that it is operating at roughly the same level it was in 2010. Which is a serious set back requiring structural adjustment. But destroyed?
The Tories are destroying the lives of young people once again. Rather than giving the elderly yet another guaranteed pension rise, why not spend it on the young instead.
I hate to say it but I was absolutely right when I said the only option left is a national lockdown.
We completely squandered the time we had bought in July with Johnson messing around telling us all to get back to the pub and work.
I know the PB Tory way is to shift the blame and say it's just the same everywhere but the reality is we had this under control and we once again did nothing to keep it that way.
We can't stay locked down forever and your bizarre idea of a country of pubs that only open at lunchtime is a complete and utter non-starter. We need to open up as best as we can finding a way to live with this.
As a great lady once said There Is No Alternative.
I didn't say pubs open at lunchtime was part of the lockdown, I said that when we open up from the lockdown. During the lockdown they'd all be closed with Government support.
This dishonesty from you is just trying to undermine the idea that I was right - and you know it. But you're too much of a coward here to admit it.
If everyone were to stay in their homes, schools & unis closed or went fully remote, everything shut, then the virus would be suppressed.
So of course you are right.
But the real world doesn't work in absolutes like that. Because there is a cost to such activity. Even our "lockdown", which as @Sandpit notes was a relatively lax set of rules vs other countries, had a huge and ongoing cost.
So the government is trying to weave its way carefully between virus suppression and allowing ongoing economic activity. I think they have cocked up in any number of ways but any administration would wrestle with the same dilemma.
It is like the laffer curve - works at either end but no one has a clue what happens in between.
Once again the state has proved it doesn't have any creative thinking, just more of the same that didn't work.
I think the Daily Star's (!) headline: "Back to Square One" will hit home for many.
Not to say that the rest of Europe isn't in a similar position.
It isn’t though. Italy and Germany are notably - so far - doing OK.
Italy got shocked into compliance after the terrible scenes early this year. Germany, to be stereotypical, is full of Germans and has a very good healthcare sector.
UK, France and Spain, on the other hand...
It was precisely the terrible scenes from Italy which prompted our own government's actions. So not really an excuse to say Italy was somehow different.
Italy also has an extraordinarily conformist culture - not in terms of following the authorities, but in following each other. That has really helped ensure everyone takes precautions.
That'll be the Catholics for you.
I don't think that's it, since France isn't the same at all. I don't know Spain well enough to comment.
A lot of the Italian psyche arises from having spent most of their history governed by foreign powers; you can certainly tie this through to the reliance on personal social relations, distrust of authority, even organised crime networks.
Scott, do you really think that is funny? Or even sane?
We see the same hysterical nonsense about Brexit every day. It's boring. It has fed into the perception of the government generally, on both sides actually. Those opposed to Brexit cannot conceive of the government doing anything right so attack everything they do without any attempt to engage in the complexities. Those who favour Brexit, being very well aware of these trends, cut the government more slack than it deserves. It's unhealthy.
It really is time we moved on. Geoff's description of Brexit being a molehill is overstating it. And we are currently somewhere deep in the Andies.
I thought it was quite funny. Brexit *is* a shitshow. There’s nothing hysterical about pointing it out.
What, an IT department being a set of ballerinas? I mean, really?
Scott, do you really think that is funny? Or even sane?
We see the same hysterical nonsense about Brexit every day. It's boring. It has fed into the perception of the government generally, on both sides actually. Those opposed to Brexit cannot conceive of the government doing anything right so attack everything they do without any attempt to engage in the complexities. Those who favour Brexit, being very well aware of these trends, cut the government more slack than it deserves. It's unhealthy.
It really is time we moved on. Geoff's description of Brexit being a molehill is overstating it. And we are currently somewhere deep in the Andies.
I thought it was quite funny. Brexit *is* a shitshow. There’s nothing hysterical about pointing it out.
What, an IT department being a set of ballerinas? I mean, really?
You've never encountered a primadonna in an IT department?
Usually the Manager....
Coders hate Managers who cannot code. To be managed by such an imbecile is the worst experience ever.
I like this idea that a national lockdown would destroy the economy. The economy is already destroyed.
It is not really. Some businesses have closed, others in trouble, but a few are better in these conditions and many others not far from normal. Equally importantly a very large chunk of our economy is the public sector and this can rely on borrowing at ultra low rates.
Some sectors are in real trouble but even those sectors are not destroyed yet. The economy as a whole could fairly be described as damaged or at risk, but it is very far from destroyed.
The Tories are destroying the lives of young people once again. Rather than giving the elderly yet another guaranteed pension rise, why not spend it on the young instead.
Don't you want everyone locked in their houses, including the young - rather than letting them out to work and play?
Once again the state has proved it doesn't have any creative thinking, just more of the same that didn't work.
Are we expecting much by way of effort to enforce, except in the most egregious breaches? It is dressed up as law but is effectively guidance.
Then why bother having it? It's like the fines for breaching quarantine, they exist only in theory so no one bothers with them. Even self isolation is in that boat.
There will be some compliance with new restrictions so potential infection will be reduced.
But the people most likely to comply with new restrictions are probably the people least likely to become infected.
I've always said that each country and each demographic has its restrictions tolerance and own cost/benefit decision.
With 90% of infected students asymptomatic there's no hope of anything but minor restrictions of the young.
Agree. Plus unemployment figures out today show that the brunt of the economic effect is being felt by young people. So their "sacrifice" is doubly difficult to enforce/comply with given their usually asymptomatic condition.
"Usually asymptomatic condition."
Really?
Hopefully not relying on the "of all people tested, 86% were not symptomatic at the moment of testing" statistic, because following up demonstrates that four in five of those went on to develop symptoms and were therefore pre-symptomatic rather than asymptomatic.
But I'm not aware of any figures, studies, or evidence that "young people" (however defined. Under 18? 18-24? 18-30?) are usually asymptomatic, although the Allison Pearsons of the world spout their opinions as facts that they are.
If you are not aware of any figures, studies, or evidence then we are both arguing without foundation.
My anecdotal evidence is that without exception everyone I know with children at university (and including my nieces and nephews) either has it or is living with someone with it. In that extremely limited data group, no one has reported anyone actually being ill. Just that they have tested positive.
We'll have to wait for those studies. Oh and there are the death rates, but I appreciate not dying from it and being asymptomatic are not the same thing.
Excellent picture from your microlight yesterday btw.
I suspect the most important development yesterday was the publication of the SAGE minutes from September 20. SAGE confirms the view that test, trace and isolate is simply not working, and can only be seen as a major failure by government. It was noted by somebody on here, but I don't think enough attention has been paid to it. This is what the minutes said:
An effective test, trace and isolate (TTI) system is important to reduce the incidence of infections in the community. Estimates of the effectiveness of this system on R are difficult to ascertain. The relatively low levels of engagement with the system (comparing ONS incidence estimates with NHS Test and Trace numbers) coupled with testing delays and likely poor rates of adherence with self-isolation suggests that this system is having a marginal impact on transmission at the moment. Unless the system grows at the same rate as the epidemic, and support is given to people to enable them to adhere to self-isolation, it is likely that the impact of Test, Trace and Isolate will further decline in the future.
That is incredibly gloomy. Poor rates of adherence with self-isolation? Testing delays? Low levels of engagement? Further decline in the future?
It strikes me that this is, as some have been saying, the most significant weakness in delivery of government policy, and should be a priority immediately. And by the way, this is what boring old Starmer has been droning on about for weeks....
There is absolutely no chance of getting the virus under control unless test, trace and isolate are much more effective than currently.
Nothing is going to make track and trace work well in this country.
That's the reality and has to be dealt with.
I suspect that's also applies to varying degrees in all countries.
Pretty much everywhere else in the world, some to most people complying depending on the rules and their enforcement.
In the UK and US, no chance even in theory. People just don't like being told what to do, and many will actively do something, because they're being told not to do it and don't think they'll be caught.
That's why we don't all move to Dubai. That, and the insane heat.
And so we get a step closer to actually making the choice we have always faced.
We either go back to our lives and accept what for the vast majority is a pretty low extra risk, or we will get a pretty comprehensive financial and social oblivion.
There's no way an economy that's already 10% smaller than it was and massively more indebted can support any further measures (or even these measures). Even as things stand we're going to be 15% smaller at the end of the year than in February as the double dip recession bites.
The cleverer countries will work this out and get on with living. There rest face plunging confidence, investor flights, rampant inflation, debt defaults and currency crises.
I suspect the most important development yesterday was the publication of the SAGE minutes from September 20. SAGE confirms the view that test, trace and isolate is simply not working, and can only be seen as a major failure by government. It was noted by somebody on here, but I don't think enough attention has been paid to it. This is what the minutes said:
An effective test, trace and isolate (TTI) system is important to reduce the incidence of infections in the community. Estimates of the effectiveness of this system on R are difficult to ascertain. The relatively low levels of engagement with the system (comparing ONS incidence estimates with NHS Test and Trace numbers) coupled with testing delays and likely poor rates of adherence with self-isolation suggests that this system is having a marginal impact on transmission at the moment. Unless the system grows at the same rate as the epidemic, and support is given to people to enable them to adhere to self-isolation, it is likely that the impact of Test, Trace and Isolate will further decline in the future.
That is incredibly gloomy. Poor rates of adherence with self-isolation? Testing delays? Low levels of engagement? Further decline in the future?
It strikes me that this is, as some have been saying, the most significant weakness in delivery of government policy, and should be a priority immediately. And by the way, this is what boring old Starmer has been droning on about for weeks....
There is absolutely no chance of getting the virus under control unless test, trace and isolate are much more effective than currently.
Are we allowed to mention those responsible for these failures: Serco and Dido Harding?
I like this idea that a national lockdown would destroy the economy. The economy is already destroyed.
No it's not. It's operating at about 90% of its pre-Covid peak. Which means that it is operating at roughly the same level it was in 2010. Which is a serious set back requiring structural adjustment. But destroyed?
Have you seen the unemployment figures?
Unemployment in 2019 was the lowest it had been since the mid 70s. We have come off a very high peak quite sharply. It's where we go next that is important.
Once again the state has proved it doesn't have any creative thinking, just more of the same that didn't work.
I think the Daily Star's (!) headline: "Back to Square One" will hit home for many.
Not to say that the rest of Europe isn't in a similar position.
It isn’t though. Italy and Germany are notably - so far - doing OK.
Italy got shocked into compliance after the terrible scenes early this year. Germany, to be stereotypical, is full of Germans and has a very good healthcare sector.
UK, France and Spain, on the other hand...
This is a war. The cost is lives and livelihoods. There is no comfort in being “as bad as others”.
When you've had 'world beating' pried from your cold, dead hand, it has to be replaced with something.
The Tories are destroying the lives of young people once again. Rather than giving the elderly yet another guaranteed pension rise, why not spend it on the young instead.
Don't you want everyone locked in their houses, including the young - rather than letting them out to work and play?
I suspect the most important development yesterday was the publication of the SAGE minutes from September 20. SAGE confirms the view that test, trace and isolate is simply not working, and can only be seen as a major failure by government. It was noted by somebody on here, but I don't think enough attention has been paid to it. This is what the minutes said:
An effective test, trace and isolate (TTI) system is important to reduce the incidence of infections in the community. Estimates of the effectiveness of this system on R are difficult to ascertain. The relatively low levels of engagement with the system (comparing ONS incidence estimates with NHS Test and Trace numbers) coupled with testing delays and likely poor rates of adherence with self-isolation suggests that this system is having a marginal impact on transmission at the moment. Unless the system grows at the same rate as the epidemic, and support is given to people to enable them to adhere to self-isolation, it is likely that the impact of Test, Trace and Isolate will further decline in the future.
That is incredibly gloomy. Poor rates of adherence with self-isolation? Testing delays? Low levels of engagement? Further decline in the future?
It strikes me that this is, as some have been saying, the most significant weakness in delivery of government policy, and should be a priority immediately. And by the way, this is what boring old Starmer has been droning on about for weeks....
There is absolutely no chance of getting the virus under control unless test, trace and isolate are much more effective than currently.
The difficulty is that if you walk into a supermarket and are asked to register your QR code you are subject to 14 days quarantine if someone 2hrs later goes to the same supermarket and then tests positive. That is a big call for people who don't or can't rely on Ocado.
As I noted weeks ago, a friend of mine recently went to Kew Gardens and was asked to register. Kew Gardens - 300 acres of outdoors open for eight hours. The friend didn't register.
That's not true, your app records when you went in and will only inform you of potential for infection if there's an overlap, it doesn't ask you to self isolate even if there is. It only does that if you've got the required number of points.
Ah well that's interesting and good to know.
Edit: As my friend and I can't be the only ones who had no idea about your explanation I must put that down as yet another govt communication success.
Yes, accurate messaging has been non existent (and is perhaps not unconnected to Boris' fondness for florid but uninformative metaphors).
This is the bit on the QR codes: ...The way the app deviates most from others around the world is through its use of QR codes. Through an in-app camera function, which you will need to give permission to use, it is able to scan QR codes at venues and log where you have been. The government has made it possible for pubs, restaurants and other venues to create their own QR codes through a generator on its site.
Like the rest of the app, QR codes don’t send any information to a central server and they don’t store people’s personal information. They exist as a way for people to remember where they have been, in case they need to tell contact tracers their activities. The QR code function can be turned on and off in the app and it’s possible to delete the records they create.
QR code check-ins are stored on a phone for 21 days – this allows for 14 days for the virus to appear and seven days when people are most likely to be infectious....
Once again the state has proved it doesn't have any creative thinking, just more of the same that didn't work.
I think the Daily Star's (!) headline: "Back to Square One" will hit home for many.
Not to say that the rest of Europe isn't in a similar position.
It isn’t though. Italy and Germany are notably - so far - doing OK.
Italy got shocked into compliance after the terrible scenes early this year. Germany, to be stereotypical, is full of Germans and has a very good healthcare sector.
UK, France and Spain, on the other hand...
It was precisely the terrible scenes from Italy which prompted our own government's actions. So not really an excuse to say Italy was somehow different.
Italy also has an extraordinarily conformist culture - not in terms of following the authorities, but in following each other. That has really helped ensure everyone takes precautions.
That'll be the Catholics for you.
I don't think that's it, since France isn't the same at all. I don't know Spain well enough to comment.
A lot of the Italian psyche arises from having spent most of their history governed by foreign powers; you can certainly tie this through to the reliance on personal social relations, distrust of authority, even organised crime networks.
Spain is still influenced by the Franco years with an ongoing acceptance of conformity with police and Guardia authority. The law enforcers also have the numbers and are armed although the number of police shooting incidence is remarkably low. In general people do as they are told because they believe it’s in their best interests. The Catholic Church can be a source of infection with strange icon kissing rituals etc hopefully most of which have stopped.
The Tories are destroying the lives of young people once again. Rather than giving the elderly yet another guaranteed pension rise, why not spend it on the young instead.
I suspect the most important development yesterday was the publication of the SAGE minutes from September 20. SAGE confirms the view that test, trace and isolate is simply not working, and can only be seen as a major failure by government. It was noted by somebody on here, but I don't think enough attention has been paid to it. This is what the minutes said:
An effective test, trace and isolate (TTI) system is important to reduce the incidence of infections in the community. Estimates of the effectiveness of this system on R are difficult to ascertain. The relatively low levels of engagement with the system (comparing ONS incidence estimates with NHS Test and Trace numbers) coupled with testing delays and likely poor rates of adherence with self-isolation suggests that this system is having a marginal impact on transmission at the moment. Unless the system grows at the same rate as the epidemic, and support is given to people to enable them to adhere to self-isolation, it is likely that the impact of Test, Trace and Isolate will further decline in the future.
That is incredibly gloomy. Poor rates of adherence with self-isolation? Testing delays? Low levels of engagement? Further decline in the future?
It strikes me that this is, as some have been saying, the most significant weakness in delivery of government policy, and should be a priority immediately. And by the way, this is what boring old Starmer has been droning on about for weeks....
There is absolutely no chance of getting the virus under control unless test, trace and isolate are much more effective than currently.
The difficulty is that if you walk into a supermarket and are asked to register your QR code you are subject to 14 days quarantine if someone 2hrs later goes to the same supermarket and then tests positive. That is a big call for people who don't or can't rely on Ocado.
As I noted weeks ago, a friend of mine recently went to Kew Gardens and was asked to register. Kew Gardens - 300 acres of outdoors open for eight hours. The friend didn't register.
No, that is not how it works. The 14 day quarantine requirement is only triggered through the bluetooth proximity detection - you would have to be recorded as spending 15mins in close proximity to someone who then tests positive to be sent that requirement.
The QR recording is a completely separate system for track and trace.
I've been advocating building a more QR led system, certainly for smaller spaces like pubs and train carriages, but you can only, only do that well alongside rapid indicative testing as per the Atlantic article, so it's more an opinion on what the next iteration should look like rather than advocating switching over tomorrow, which could isolate pretty much everyone.
It definitely goes along with addressing people's problems with isolation compliance (and you are AIUI still allowed to break isolation for essential reasons: those student residence kids getting fleeced for food packages would be well within their rights to outnumber the security guards and send one of their own out for food).
And we should much more proactive about information messaging to reduce spread within the home - including the option of isolation hotels.
Once again the state has proved it doesn't have any creative thinking, just more of the same that didn't work.
I think the Daily Star's (!) headline: "Back to Square One" will hit home for many.
Not to say that the rest of Europe isn't in a similar position.
It isn’t though. Italy and Germany are notably - so far - doing OK.
Italy got shocked into compliance after the terrible scenes early this year. Germany, to be stereotypical, is full of Germans and has a very good healthcare sector.
UK, France and Spain, on the other hand...
This is a war. The cost is lives and livelihoods. There is no comfort in being “as bad as others”.
As a proud Englishman, it is a national embarrassment that our politicians and their supporters are saying we are as bad as France.
I don't ask for much, but being better than France is my main aim for this country.
I can't think of many things that we are better than the French at right now, except perhaps washing and using deodorant.
Brexiteers and their infrequently changed pants excepted.
The Tories are destroying the lives of young people once again. Rather than giving the elderly yet another guaranteed pension rise, why not spend it on the young instead.
Most young people have to be employed by the private sector. A sector the government is, in some cases, forcibly shutting down.
You don;t think there are limits to how much a government can borrow, spend or print. But there are. And when they are exceeded, the results are extremely, extremely brutal.
I suspect the most important development yesterday was the publication of the SAGE minutes from September 20. SAGE confirms the view that test, trace and isolate is simply not working, and can only be seen as a major failure by government. It was noted by somebody on here, but I don't think enough attention has been paid to it. This is what the minutes said:
An effective test, trace and isolate (TTI) system is important to reduce the incidence of infections in the community. Estimates of the effectiveness of this system on R are difficult to ascertain. The relatively low levels of engagement with the system (comparing ONS incidence estimates with NHS Test and Trace numbers) coupled with testing delays and likely poor rates of adherence with self-isolation suggests that this system is having a marginal impact on transmission at the moment. Unless the system grows at the same rate as the epidemic, and support is given to people to enable them to adhere to self-isolation, it is likely that the impact of Test, Trace and Isolate will further decline in the future.
That is incredibly gloomy. Poor rates of adherence with self-isolation? Testing delays? Low levels of engagement? Further decline in the future?
It strikes me that this is, as some have been saying, the most significant weakness in delivery of government policy, and should be a priority immediately. And by the way, this is what boring old Starmer has been droning on about for weeks....
There is absolutely no chance of getting the virus under control unless test, trace and isolate are much more effective than currently.
Nothing is going to make track and trace work well in this country.
That's the reality and has to be dealt with.
I suspect that's also applies to varying degrees in all countries.
Pretty much everywhere else in the world, some to most people complying depending on the rules and their enforcement.
In the UK and US, no chance even in theory. People just don't like being told what to do, and many will actively do something, because they're being told not to do it and don't think they'll be caught.
That's why we don't all move to Dubai. That, and the insane heat.
Thankfully it's down to a reasonable 35ºC today. Unlike those in the UK, the crap weather is now pretty much over and I'm quite looking forward to the winter
I suspect the most important development yesterday was the publication of the SAGE minutes from September 20. SAGE confirms the view that test, trace and isolate is simply not working, and can only be seen as a major failure by government. It was noted by somebody on here, but I don't think enough attention has been paid to it. This is what the minutes said:
An effective test, trace and isolate (TTI) system is important to reduce the incidence of infections in the community. Estimates of the effectiveness of this system on R are difficult to ascertain. The relatively low levels of engagement with the system (comparing ONS incidence estimates with NHS Test and Trace numbers) coupled with testing delays and likely poor rates of adherence with self-isolation suggests that this system is having a marginal impact on transmission at the moment. Unless the system grows at the same rate as the epidemic, and support is given to people to enable them to adhere to self-isolation, it is likely that the impact of Test, Trace and Isolate will further decline in the future.
That is incredibly gloomy. Poor rates of adherence with self-isolation? Testing delays? Low levels of engagement? Further decline in the future?
It strikes me that this is, as some have been saying, the most significant weakness in delivery of government policy, and should be a priority immediately. And by the way, this is what boring old Starmer has been droning on about for weeks....
There is absolutely no chance of getting the virus under control unless test, trace and isolate are much more effective than currently.
Are we allowed to mention those responsible for these failures: Serco and Dido Harding?
I'm not sure you can pin the blame of low self isolation adherence to PHE or Harding, as easy as that would be. The answer lies with the poor information campaign and lack of incentive, it's also the British mentality of "I feel fine" and just keep on keeping on even after a positive test. Not sure how you can land that at the feet of Harding.
The Tories are destroying the lives of young people once again. Rather than giving the elderly yet another guaranteed pension rise, why not spend it on the young instead.
Says the guy who wants perma uber lockdown. 🙄
Not permanent, why the need to put words in my mouth?
The Tories are destroying the lives of young people once again. Rather than giving the elderly yet another guaranteed pension rise, why not spend it on the young instead.
Most young people have to be employed by the private sector. A sector the government is, in some cases, forcibly shutting down.
You don;t think there are limits to how much a government can borrow, spend or print. But there are. And when they are exceeded, the results are extremely, extremely brutal.
The Tories are destroying the lives of young people once again. Rather than giving the elderly yet another guaranteed pension rise, why not spend it on the young instead.
Says the guy who wants perma uber lockdown. 🙄
Not permanent, why the need to put words in my mouth?
So how long would you want it and what threshold would you use to bring it back?
Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.
“This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”
What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideals l
Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.
“This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”
What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideal leader for now but the level of criticism from the 'chatterers' is a contant source of amusement.
Johnson is a first class campaigner. So from that point of view he is very good at this element of politics.
Johnson is poor at making consistent political decisions, therefore he not very good at this element of politics.
I suspect therefore, it all hinges on one's definition of politics. If campaigning is one's priority you are right, Johnson is a political master.
I don't disagree with that. I do think though that judgement of Johnson is distorted by a level of sour grapes which ignores the extraordinarily difficult circumstances of this crisis. He is far from perfect but I am unconvinced that any other PM right now would be being lauded on all sides either.
I have an innate dislike of Johnson so I am not impartial. However, I am trying to be just that. There is no point me suggesting Blair would have handled othe pandemic better as I clearly have a dog in that race.
I didn't like Mrs May either, but I can't help feeling that she would have followed the science, and communicated the message better. She would have been more determined and forthright with what she believed to be right. She may well make the wrong decision but she wouldn't have been too scared to try.
Oh but that is not what I said - "I am unconvinced any other PM would be being lauded..". I made no comment about his actions - more about the response of the press and others. I can also, as it happens, recall some of the criticisms of May when she was PM.
Regarding specific actions taken he has made errors of course. However, the broad range of actions taken in the UK are remarkably similar to much of the rest of Europe and indeed the UK, with pretty much the same rates of success. Just one example is the 'rule of 6' which has appeared here in Spain a couple of weeks after the UK. There are many others. He is the leader so gets the bulk of the criticism. However, a large part of that criticism has its source in those who wish harm on the government for ideological reasons. Most of the ' he should have done this commentary' is either wrong or hindisght.
Because the virus is hitting the entire world regardless of the nature of governance within each jurisdiction.
The ability of any leader to steer beyond the storm is more limited than we would wish.
None of which changes the fact that most times our own leader touches the tiller we end up closer to the rocks. And our boat is taking on more water than almost any.
Comments
Either both situations are arguably a gathering. Or neither are.
But only one is actually intended to be prevented by the regulations (going for a drink)
“Thank-you, PM”.
Felt like some kind of cutesy affectation of Rishi’s, or even an attempt to belittle the Prime Minister.
Germany, to be stereotypical, is full of Germans and has a very good healthcare sector.
UK, France and Spain, on the other hand...
https://youtu.be/LsDx7CM0SkI
There is no comfort in being “as bad as others”.
The NHS Covid app does this automatically - you are only advised to quarantine if you come into close contact for a certain period of time (ie. you can't just walk past them in the street).
The Track and trace system asks questions about when precisely you were present and tries to establish whether you were in contact sufficiently.
But most people don't understand this. Which is why most don't engage with it in the first place.
Edit: As my friend and I can't be the only ones who had no idea about your explanation I must put that down as yet another govt communication success.
I don't ask for much, but being better than France is my main aim for this country.
And there seem to be a lot of them...
They understood the national lockdown. Simple, straightforward. Stay at home. Only go out to shop if you need to or if you have to work. Thats it.
This localised, multi-tired, multi purpose yes, no maybe, rule of 6, hospitality, 10pm, outside/inside etc etc... It's not working.
We see the same hysterical nonsense about Brexit every day. It's boring. It has fed into the perception of the government generally, on both sides actually. Those opposed to Brexit cannot conceive of the government doing anything right so attack everything they do without any attempt to engage in the complexities. Those who favour Brexit, being very well aware of these trends, cut the government more slack than it deserves. It's unhealthy.
It really is time we moved on. Geoff's description of Brexit being a molehill is overstating it. And we are currently somewhere deep in the Andies.
We completely squandered the time we had bought in July with Johnson messing around telling us all to get back to the pub and work.
I know the PB Tory way is to shift the blame and say it's just the same everywhere but the reality is we had this under control and we once again did nothing to keep it that way.
Brexit *is* a shitshow. There’s nothing hysterical about pointing it out.
Matthew 18:20
Where has this information been displayed? Don't blame the people for not understanding something that has not been explained to them by the govt who launched the app.
As a great lady once said There Is No Alternative.
How do you think an avoidable medicine shortage during a pandemic will play out?
I guess my point is that if this had been done in July/August as promised, we may well have been able to avoid the situation we have now, where infections spread from September, are now out of control, and draconian restrictions are pretty inevitable.
This dishonesty from you is just trying to undermine the idea that I was right - and you know it. But you're too much of a coward here to admit it.
Over to you for your legal opinion
https://www.theguardian.com/stage/2020/oct/13/dying-swan-or-lame-duck-why-fatima-the-ballerinas-next-job-was-tripping-up-the-government
Just over a month ago Johnson was saying get back to work!
Again, mass testing, while a bit less accurate, completely eliminates the track and trace aspect.
You just isolate everyone infected.
Time running: 2 weeks
Number of venue check ins: 1.5m
Number of alerts sent: 1
I wouldn't worry too much!
Really?
Hopefully not relying on the "of all people tested, 86% were not symptomatic at the moment of testing" statistic, because following up demonstrates that four in five of those went on to develop symptoms and were therefore pre-symptomatic rather than asymptomatic.
But I'm not aware of any figures, studies, or evidence that "young people" (however defined. Under 18? 18-24? 18-30?) are usually asymptomatic, although the Allison Pearsons of the world spout their opinions as facts that they are.
The 14 day quarantine requirement is only triggered through the bluetooth proximity detection - you would have to be recorded as spending 15mins in close proximity to someone who then tests positive to be sent that requirement.
The QR recording is a completely separate system for track and trace.
Are we about to see police roadblocks on roads out of the Liverpool high risk area, asking people where they're going and turning them around if they don't have a good reason?
So of course you are right.
But the real world doesn't work in absolutes like that. Because there is a cost to such activity. Even our "lockdown", which as @Sandpit notes was a relatively lax set of rules vs other countries, had a huge and ongoing cost.
So the government is trying to weave its way carefully between virus suppression and allowing ongoing economic activity. I think they have cocked up in any number of ways but any administration would wrestle with the same dilemma.
It is like the laffer curve - works at either end but no one has a clue what happens in between.
A lot of the Italian psyche arises from having spent most of their history governed by foreign powers; you can certainly tie this through to the reliance on personal social relations, distrust of authority, even organised crime networks.
Coders hate Managers who cannot code. To be managed by such an imbecile is the worst experience ever.
Some sectors are in real trouble but even those sectors are not destroyed yet. The economy as a whole could fairly be described as damaged or at risk, but it is very far from destroyed.
My anecdotal evidence is that without exception everyone I know with children at university (and including my nieces and nephews) either has it or is living with someone with it. In that extremely limited data group, no one has reported anyone actually being ill. Just that they have tested positive.
We'll have to wait for those studies. Oh and there are the death rates, but I appreciate not dying from it and being asymptomatic are not the same thing.
Excellent picture from your microlight yesterday btw.
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1315915167625031681
We either go back to our lives and accept what for the vast majority is a pretty low extra risk, or we will get a pretty comprehensive financial and social oblivion.
There's no way an economy that's already 10% smaller than it was and massively more indebted can support any further measures (or even these measures). Even as things stand we're going to be 15% smaller at the end of the year than in February as the double dip recession bites.
The cleverer countries will work this out and get on with living. There rest face plunging confidence, investor flights, rampant inflation, debt defaults and currency crises.
There's a decent explanation of how the app works here:
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/nhs-covid-19-tracking-app-contact-tracing
This is the bit on the QR codes:
...The way the app deviates most from others around the world is through its use of QR codes. Through an in-app camera function, which you will need to give permission to use, it is able to scan QR codes at venues and log where you have been. The government has made it possible for pubs, restaurants and other venues to create their own QR codes through a generator on its site.
Like the rest of the app, QR codes don’t send any information to a central server and they don’t store people’s personal information. They exist as a way for people to remember where they have been, in case they need to tell contact tracers their activities. The QR code function can be turned on and off in the app and it’s possible to delete the records they create.
QR code check-ins are stored on a phone for 21 days – this allows for 14 days for the virus to appear and seven days when people are most likely to be infectious....
It definitely goes along with addressing people's problems with isolation compliance (and you are AIUI still allowed to break isolation for essential reasons: those student residence kids getting fleeced for food packages would be well within their rights to outnumber the security guards and send one of their own out for food).
And we should much more proactive about information messaging to reduce spread within the home - including the option of isolation hotels.
You don;t think there are limits to how much a government can borrow, spend or print. But there are. And when they are exceeded, the results are extremely, extremely brutal.
Ask any nation that's had to default.
Formal is fine. "Thank you, Prime Minister." And so is informal. "Thanks, Boris."
But "thanks, PM." - WTF was that?