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The states that will decide WH2020 – polling averages from the key battlegrounds – politicalbetting.

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 12 in General
The states that will decide WH2020 – polling averages from the key battlegrounds – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066
    First....as in to call a national lockdown incoming in a month...
  • TimTTimT Posts: 1,206
    Hadn't realized that Biden was ahead in Texas in the average of polls. I have that in the Biden column
  • TimTTimT Posts: 1,206
    FPT
    A nice dive into the polling numbers and what they mean for the viability of Trump's reelection strategy by Amy from the Cook Report. In short, Trump only meeting 1 of the 4 conditions for his strategy to succeed:

    https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/gamble
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 56,679

    First....as in to call a national lockdown incoming in a month...

    I'd thought we'd get one by end of next week, but they'll want to give the new measures some time, so I've not got that one.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 56,679
    Ah, State polls, such heartache they can bring. Hopefully not this time and it's a Corbyn 2019 situation - that what we are seeing is indeed real.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,901


    Packed crowd, high fives followed by the good ol' hand to nose wipe at the end
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,901
    Right now Trump supporters seem to be showing up to rallies, Biden supporters showing up to the polls...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,641
    Coach of U Florida wants 90 000 in the stadium for football game v LSU.
    U Florida is currently all Online.
    Bonkers.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 56,679
    On parties and local government, I do like the scope for localist parties, to a degree, though on larger councils you can end up with 2-3 different localist parties and multiple, different Independent Groups if you are unlucky, not to mention the ungrouped.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066
    dixiedean said:

    Coach of U Florida wants 90 000 in the stadium for football game v LSU.
    U Florida is currently all Online.
    Bonkers.

    I was watching some college hand egg on Saturday and a number of stadiums had 15,000 in attendance, including the massive marching bands they have.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,901
    dixiedean said:

    Coach of U Florida wants 90 000 in the stadium for football game v LSU.
    U Florida is currently all Online.
    Bonkers.

    College football is "day to day, covid test to covid test".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818
    Pulpstar said:

    Right now Trump supporters seem to be showing up to rallies, Biden supporters showing up to the polls...

    Most Trump supporters will be voting on the day, most Biden supporters voting by mail
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,319
    edited October 12
    CORRECTION Revised chart showing Trump ahead in Texas
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,641
    kle4 said:

    On parties and local government, I do like the scope for localist parties, to a degree, though on larger councils you can end up with 2-3 different localist parties and multiple, different Independent Groups if you are unlucky, not to mention the ungrouped.

    However. We have the delights of a Tory/Bedlington Independents coalition.
  • First....as in to call a national lockdown incoming in a month...

    You and I both...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818
    Looks like Pennsylvania or Wisconsin will decide the winner of the EC and the Presidency then
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,319
    TimT said:

    Hadn't realized that Biden was ahead in Texas in the average of polls. I have that in the Biden column

    Chart corrected
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 3,790
    edited October 12
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Right now Trump supporters seem to be showing up to rallies, Biden supporters showing up to the polls...

    Most Trump supporters will be voting on the day, most Biden supporters voting by mail
    "most Biden supporters voting by mail"
    Rubbish. Millions more Democrat voters will be voting on the day than in advance.

    If you mean proportionately then say so.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818

    First....as in to call a national lockdown incoming in a month...

    There will be a mutiny in the Tory Party if Boris does that, local lockdowns he can get away with, another full national lockdown will lead to a big rebellion
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066
    HYUFD said:

    First....as in to call a national lockdown incoming in a month...

    There will be a mutiny in the Tory Party if Boris does that, local lockdowns he can get away with, another full national lockdown will lead to a big rebellion
    The realistic scenario is 90% in lockdown and Devon / Cornwall as an exception.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818
    edited October 12
    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Right now Trump supporters seem to be showing up to rallies, Biden supporters showing up to the polls...

    Most Trump supporters will be voting on the day, most Biden supporters voting by mail
    "most Biden supporters voting by mail"
    Rubbish. Millions more Democrat voters will be voting on the day than in advance.

    If you mean proportionately then say so.
    Most Biden voters whether in absolute or percentage terms will be voting by mail in advance, not on the day
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 15,100
    HYUFD said:

    First....as in to call a national lockdown incoming in a month...

    There will be a mutiny in the Tory Party if Boris does that, local lockdowns he can get away with, another full national lockdown will lead to a big rebellion
    What does that mean in practice?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,641
    HYUFD said:

    First....as in to call a national lockdown incoming in a month...

    There will be a mutiny in the Tory Party if Boris does that, local lockdowns he can get away with, another full national lockdown will lead to a big rebellion
    If the rates in Essex and Merseyside were reversed, would there be a mutiny if similar local measures were introduced?
    Not being antagonistic, just interested in your assessment/opinion.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    First....as in to call a national lockdown incoming in a month...

    There will be a mutiny in the Tory Party if Boris does that, local lockdowns he can get away with, another full national lockdown will lead to a big rebellion
    What does that mean in practice?
    Well over 100 Tory MPs maybe even a majority of Tory MPs voting against it
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,671
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    First....as in to call a national lockdown incoming in a month...

    There will be a mutiny in the Tory Party if Boris does that, local lockdowns he can get away with, another full national lockdown will lead to a big rebellion
    What does that mean in practice?
    Well over 100 Tory MPs maybe even a majority of Tory MPs voting against it
    The backbenchers sold out the farmers tonight. Who gets sold out next? Their price is not high.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    First....as in to call a national lockdown incoming in a month...

    There will be a mutiny in the Tory Party if Boris does that, local lockdowns he can get away with, another full national lockdown will lead to a big rebellion
    If the rates in Essex and Merseyside were reversed, would there be a mutiny if similar local measures were introduced?
    Not being antagonistic, just interested in your assessment/opinion.
    They aren't but hypothetically if only in a few areas at a time maybe but no more.

    We had a lockdown because we were not wearing masks, social distancing, were not working from home in great numbers and we did not have a tracing app and expanded testing, we do now and the economic devastation it would cause is not worth it
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818
    edited October 12
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    First....as in to call a national lockdown incoming in a month...

    There will be a mutiny in the Tory Party if Boris does that, local lockdowns he can get away with, another full national lockdown will lead to a big rebellion
    What does that mean in practice?
    Well over 100 Tory MPs maybe even a majority of Tory MPs voting against it
    The backbenchers sold out the farmers tonight. Who gets sold out next? Their price is not high.
    No they didn't, they ensured farmers could get trade deals and more markets to send their beef and lamb and potatoes to.

    It was Labour and the LDs who voted to block trade deals and block farmers exports
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 15,100
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    First....as in to call a national lockdown incoming in a month...

    There will be a mutiny in the Tory Party if Boris does that, local lockdowns he can get away with, another full national lockdown will lead to a big rebellion
    What does that mean in practice?
    Well over 100 Tory MPs maybe even a majority of Tory MPs voting against it
    You believe there would a HoC defeat on a substantive motion with a majority of 80? Believe it when I see it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 6,964
    Pulpstar said:



    Packed crowd, high fives followed by the good ol' hand to nose wipe at the end
    Keep on coughing in the free world!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,641
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    First....as in to call a national lockdown incoming in a month...

    There will be a mutiny in the Tory Party if Boris does that, local lockdowns he can get away with, another full national lockdown will lead to a big rebellion
    If the rates in Essex and Merseyside were reversed, would there be a mutiny if similar local measures were introduced?
    Not being antagonistic, just interested in your assessment/opinion.
    They aren't but hypothetically if only in a few areas at a time maybe but no more.

    We had a lockdown because we were not wearing masks, social distancing, were not working from home in great numbers and we did not have a tracing app and expanded testing, we do now and the economic devastation it would cause is not worth it
    So if Essex were in the same boat as Merseyside you would oppose all measures?
    Would that be popular? Not with the Tory Party, but with the population at large?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,671
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    First....as in to call a national lockdown incoming in a month...

    There will be a mutiny in the Tory Party if Boris does that, local lockdowns he can get away with, another full national lockdown will lead to a big rebellion
    What does that mean in practice?
    Well over 100 Tory MPs maybe even a majority of Tory MPs voting against it
    The backbenchers sold out the farmers tonight. Who gets sold out next? Their price is not high.
    No they didn't, they ensured farmers could get trade deals and more markets to send their beef and lamb and potatoes to.

    It was Labour and the LDs who voted to block trade deals and block farmers exports
    They voted against the Tory manifesto, which promised to uphold food standards. They also prevented parliamentary discussion of any trade deal that requires a change in these.

    Take back control...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 18,245
    edited October 12
    dixiedean said:

    Coach of U Florida wants 90 000 in the stadium for football game v LSU.
    U Florida is currently all Online.
    Bonkers.

    If they're all young people, isolated from the rest of society, and in the open air it isn't.

    I'd want medical cover to be offered though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    First....as in to call a national lockdown incoming in a month...

    There will be a mutiny in the Tory Party if Boris does that, local lockdowns he can get away with, another full national lockdown will lead to a big rebellion
    If the rates in Essex and Merseyside were reversed, would there be a mutiny if similar local measures were introduced?
    Not being antagonistic, just interested in your assessment/opinion.
    They aren't but hypothetically if only in a few areas at a time maybe but no more.

    We had a lockdown because we were not wearing masks, social distancing, were not working from home in great numbers and we did not have a tracing app and expanded testing, we do now and the economic devastation it would cause is not worth it
    So if Essex were in the same boat as Merseyside you would oppose all measures?
    Would that be popular? Not with the Tory Party, but with the population at large?
    Generally I am sceptical of any new lockdowns, whether in Essex or Merseyside, mask wearing and the rule of 6 and the NHS app is far more productive and less economically damaging.

    'Dr. David Nabarro from the WHO appealed to world leaders yesterday, telling them to stop “using lockdowns as your primary control method” of the coronavirus.

    He also claimed that the only thing lockdowns achieved was poverty – with no mention of the potential lives saved.

    “Lockdowns just have one consequence that you must never ever belittle, and that is making poor people an awful lot poorer,” he said.

    “We in the World Health Organisation do not advocate lockdowns as the primary means of control of this virus,” Dr Nabarro told the Spectator.

    “The only time we believe a lockdown is justified is to buy you time to reorganise, regroup, rebalance your resources, protect your health workers who are exhausted, but by and large, we’d rather not do it.”

    Dr Nabarro’s main criticism of lockdowns involved the global impact, explaining how poorer economies that had been indirectly affected.

    “Just look at what’s happened to the tourism industry in the Caribbean, for example, or in the Pacific because people aren’t taking their holidays,” he said.

    “Look what’s happened to smallholder farmers all over the world. … Look what’s happening to poverty levels. It seems that we may well have a doubling of world poverty by next year. We may well have at least a doubling of child malnutrition.” '
    https://lockdownsceptics.org/#has-the-who-changed-its-mind-about-lockdowns
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,048
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Right now Trump supporters seem to be showing up to rallies, Biden supporters showing up to the polls...

    Most Trump supporters will be voting on the day, most Biden supporters voting by mail
    While Biden supporters are more like to vote by mail, vote by mail is going to be well under 50% of Biden's total vote.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,021
    Not surprising that the government is not too keen on parliament being involved in negotiating international treaties.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 18,245
    Do we have any data for the number of students who have been infected / required medical treatment / hospitalised /died since the start of term ?

    Ditto for school pupils and their teachers and parents.
  • RobD said:

    Not surprising that the government is not too keen on parliament being involved in negotiating international treaties.
    Not surprising to see you taking their side!

    Refusing to protect food standards and leading us to USA-style chlorinated chicken, don't tell me Brexiteers voted for that too?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 18,245
    Are you in favour of stopping imports which aren't produced to the UK employment and environmental standards ?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,641

    dixiedean said:

    Coach of U Florida wants 90 000 in the stadium for football game v LSU.
    U Florida is currently all Online.
    Bonkers.

    If they're all young people, isolated from the rest of society, and in the open air it isn't.

    I'd want medical cover to offered though.
    Yes but. College football isn't watched by young people alone. They don't have 90 000 Students for a start.
    It is like saying we pack Wembley or Twickenham.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,901

    dixiedean said:

    Coach of U Florida wants 90 000 in the stadium for football game v LSU.
    U Florida is currently all Online.
    Bonkers.

    If they're all young people, isolated from the rest of society, and in the open air it isn't.

    I'd want medical cover to offered though.
    The fans are just regular people, unlike the athletes who are obviously young and fit (Well unless you're the centre...). The bands are certainly better atmosphere than the fake noise though !
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,021

    RobD said:

    Not surprising that the government is not too keen on parliament being involved in negotiating international treaties.
    Not surprising to see you taking their side!

    Refusing to protect food standards and leading us to USA-style chlorinated chicken, don't tell me Brexiteers voted for that too?
    More the principle that the executive negotiates, and parliament ratifies.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 18,245
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Coach of U Florida wants 90 000 in the stadium for football game v LSU.
    U Florida is currently all Online.
    Bonkers.

    If they're all young people, isolated from the rest of society, and in the open air it isn't.

    I'd want medical cover to offered though.
    Yes but. College football isn't watched by young people alone. They don't have 90 000 Students for a start.
    It is like saying we pack Wembley or Twickenham.
    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    Coach of U Florida wants 90 000 in the stadium for football game v LSU.
    U Florida is currently all Online.
    Bonkers.

    If they're all young people, isolated from the rest of society, and in the open air it isn't.

    I'd want medical cover to offered though.
    The fans are just regular people, unlike the athletes who are obviously young and fit (Well unless you're the centre...). The bands are certainly better atmosphere than the fake noise though !
    The importance of college sport is one of the big differences between the USA and the UK.

    The college stadia are bigger than those in the NFL.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,048
    HYUFD said:

    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Right now Trump supporters seem to be showing up to rallies, Biden supporters showing up to the polls...

    Most Trump supporters will be voting on the day, most Biden supporters voting by mail
    "most Biden supporters voting by mail"
    Rubbish. Millions more Democrat voters will be voting on the day than in advance.

    If you mean proportionately then say so.
    Most Biden voters whether in absolute or percentage terms will be voting by mail in advance, not on the day
    Joe Biden will get 72 to 75 million votes in three weeks time.

    Of these, fewer than 30 million will be "mail in" votes.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,671
    RobD said:

    Not surprising that the government is not too keen on parliament being involved in negotiating international treaties.
    Promises are made to be broken, at least as far as this government goes.

    Chlorinated chicken and drug packed pork are going to be tough sells on the doorsteps.

    It is a gift for Lib Dems wanting to retake rural seats .
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,901
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Not surprising that the government is not too keen on parliament being involved in negotiating international treaties.
    Not surprising to see you taking their side!

    Refusing to protect food standards and leading us to USA-style chlorinated chicken, don't tell me Brexiteers voted for that too?
    More the principle that the executive negotiates, and parliament ratifies.
    The 2017-19 parliament was acting just as poorly in trying to stop a massive democratic decision to Brexit by the back door as Trump and Mitch McConnell and his clowns are now in the senate trying to pretty much stop democracy in the USA. I've got faith the US electorate will be able to sniff out this horseshit like our own electorate was here.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 18,245
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Not surprising that the government is not too keen on parliament being involved in negotiating international treaties.
    Promises are made to be broken, at least as far as this government goes.

    Chlorinated chicken and drug packed pork are going to be tough sells on the doorsteps.

    It is a gift for Lib Dems wanting to retake rural seats .
    I suspect they would be sold in supermarkets rather on the doorstep.

    And I doubt that purchase would be compulsory.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Coach of U Florida wants 90 000 in the stadium for football game v LSU.
    U Florida is currently all Online.
    Bonkers.

    If they're all young people, isolated from the rest of society, and in the open air it isn't.

    I'd want medical cover to offered though.
    Yes but. College football isn't watched by young people alone. They don't have 90 000 Students for a start.
    It is like saying we pack Wembley or Twickenham.
    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    Coach of U Florida wants 90 000 in the stadium for football game v LSU.
    U Florida is currently all Online.
    Bonkers.

    If they're all young people, isolated from the rest of society, and in the open air it isn't.

    I'd want medical cover to offered though.
    The fans are just regular people, unlike the athletes who are obviously young and fit (Well unless you're the centre...). The bands are certainly better atmosphere than the fake noise though !
    The importance of college sport is one of the big differences between the USA and the UK.

    The college stadia are bigger than those in the NFL.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,126
    You could add to that chart NE-2 (Biden +7.4%) and Maine-2 (Biden +1.3%). Admittedly only 1 vote in each, but there are some permutations where they could make a difference.

    MInnesota (Biden +9.2%) was also for some time touted as a potential Trump pickup that could offset Democrat gains elsewhere, so its absent by virtue presumably of Biden's margin shows how much Trump's options are narrowing. Trump loses unless he picks up at least one of the three states in the chart where Biden is ahead by between 7.3% and 8.1% plus all of the rest of the states shown.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Right now Trump supporters seem to be showing up to rallies, Biden supporters showing up to the polls...

    Most Trump supporters will be voting on the day, most Biden supporters voting by mail
    "most Biden supporters voting by mail"
    Rubbish. Millions more Democrat voters will be voting on the day than in advance.

    If you mean proportionately then say so.
    Most Biden voters whether in absolute or percentage terms will be voting by mail in advance, not on the day
    Joe Biden will get 72 to 75 million votes in three weeks time.

    Of these, fewer than 30 million will be "mail in" votes.
    Well you can certainly say only a minority of Biden votes will be on the day, while a comfortable majority of Trump voters will be voting on the day
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818
    edited October 12
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Not surprising that the government is not too keen on parliament being involved in negotiating international treaties.
    Promises are made to be broken, at least as far as this government goes.

    Chlorinated chicken and drug packed pork are going to be tough sells on the doorsteps.

    It is a gift for Lib Dems wanting to retake rural seats .
    Not if British farmers find a vast new US market for their products, largely tariff free unlike now.

    What US imports will be subject to will be for the government to negotiate
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,671
    Ominous news. A particularly vulnerable patient, but serotyping confirms reinvention rather than reactivation.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 10,428
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Right now Trump supporters seem to be showing up to rallies, Biden supporters showing up to the polls...

    Most Trump supporters will be voting on the day, most Biden supporters voting by mail
    "most Biden supporters voting by mail"
    Rubbish. Millions more Democrat voters will be voting on the day than in advance.

    If you mean proportionately then say so.
    Most Biden voters whether in absolute or percentage terms will be voting by mail in advance, not on the day
    Joe Biden will get 72 to 75 million votes in three weeks time.

    Of these, fewer than 30 million will be "mail in" votes.
    Well you can certainly say only a minority of Biden votes will be on the day, while a comfortable majority of Trump voters will be voting on the day
    You do realize that 30m is less than half of 75m, right?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066
    edited October 12
    In terms of college hand egg, I have only ever been to a very low division college game, is on the bucket list to go to something like a Clemson game.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 10,428
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Not surprising that the government is not too keen on parliament being involved in negotiating international treaties.
    Promises are made to be broken, at least as far as this government goes.

    Chlorinated chicken and drug packed pork are going to be tough sells on the doorsteps.

    It is a gift for Lib Dems wanting to retake rural seats .
    Not if British farmers find a vast new US market for their products, largely tariff free unlike now.

    What US imports will be subject to will be for the government to negotiate
    Let’s be real, the chance of a US trade deal is almost zero.
  • Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Not surprising that the government is not too keen on parliament being involved in negotiating international treaties.
    Promises are made to be broken, at least as far as this government goes.

    Chlorinated chicken and drug packed pork are going to be tough sells on the doorsteps.

    It is a gift for Lib Dems wanting to retake rural seats .
    I suspect they would be sold in supermarkets rather on the doorstep.

    And I doubt that purchase would be compulsory.
    In the US they made the standards so weak you can't tell what you're buying.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818
    Foxy said:

    Ominous news. A particularly vulnerable patient, but serotyping confirms reinvention rather than reactivation.

    Making lockdowns even more pointless if you can get Covid again we are just going to have to live with it, we cannot shut up shop and destroy our economy for ever, we are just going to have to press on and use masks and social distancing and tracing to contain it
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,671

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Not surprising that the government is not too keen on parliament being involved in negotiating international treaties.
    Promises are made to be broken, at least as far as this government goes.

    Chlorinated chicken and drug packed pork are going to be tough sells on the doorsteps.

    It is a gift for Lib Dems wanting to retake rural seats .
    Not if British farmers find a vast new US market for their products, largely tariff free unlike now.

    What US imports will be subject to will be for the government to negotiate
    Let’s be real, the chance of a US trade deal is almost zero.
    I certainly hope so. I dont want that shit getting sold unlabelled, and contamination by shit is the reason for the chlorine.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,641
    Much of the anti-restriction sentiment seems to come from those who live in areas of very low incidence.
    At least that's the impression I get.
  • HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Right now Trump supporters seem to be showing up to rallies, Biden supporters showing up to the polls...

    Most Trump supporters will be voting on the day, most Biden supporters voting by mail
    "most Biden supporters voting by mail"
    Rubbish. Millions more Democrat voters will be voting on the day than in advance.

    If you mean proportionately then say so.
    Most Biden voters whether in absolute or percentage terms will be voting by mail in advance, not on the day
    Joe Biden will get 72 to 75 million votes in three weeks time.

    Of these, fewer than 30 million will be "mail in" votes.
    Well you can certainly say only a minority of Biden votes will be on the day, while a comfortable majority of Trump voters will be voting on the day
    You do realize that 30m is less than half of 75m, right?
    Believe HYUFD is factoring in early in-person voting, which is cast NOT by mail but also NOT on EDay.

    Personally think it will be fascinating to see where the balance between mail vs early in-person vs EDay in-person will fall nationally.

    One factor to keep in mind is that millions of Trumpsky voters will vote by mail (incuding all in all-vote-by-mail states such as WA). Real question is HOW many. But certainly less absolutely and proportionately than will be cast for Uncle Joe.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,671

    In terms of college hand egg, I have only ever been to a very low division college game, is on the bucket list to go to something like a Clemson game.

    I can recommend even High School Football. The lack of TV and advertising makes it flow better, and all the razzmatazz of marching bands, cheerleaders and drill team are there.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818
    edited October 12

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Not surprising that the government is not too keen on parliament being involved in negotiating international treaties.
    Promises are made to be broken, at least as far as this government goes.

    Chlorinated chicken and drug packed pork are going to be tough sells on the doorsteps.

    It is a gift for Lib Dems wanting to retake rural seats .
    Not if British farmers find a vast new US market for their products, largely tariff free unlike now.

    What US imports will be subject to will be for the government to negotiate
    Let’s be real, the chance of a US trade deal is almost zero.
    The US is our largest export partner, if President Trump is re elected there is a good chance of a deal, if Biden and Pelosi win less so, Biden will not do a deal while we have the internal markets bill and Pelosi will not accept what she thinks are unsafe British food and drugs standards

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066
    Foxy said:

    In terms of college hand egg, I have only ever been to a very low division college game, is on the bucket list to go to something like a Clemson game.

    I can recommend even High School Football. The lack of TV and advertising makes it flow better, and all the razzmatazz of marching bands, cheerleaders and drill team are there.
    In terms of college game, there is also more excitement due to the standard of play not having as high as the NFL. The NFL players are so fast and so powerful, the window of opportunity to make a play is tiny. It is also why many QB who excel at college level don't make it in the NFL, because they take that split second too long to throw it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,901
    edited October 12
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Not surprising that the government is not too keen on parliament being involved in negotiating international treaties.
    Promises are made to be broken, at least as far as this government goes.

    Chlorinated chicken and drug packed pork are going to be tough sells on the doorsteps.

    It is a gift for Lib Dems wanting to retake rural seats .
    Not if British farmers find a vast new US market for their products, largely tariff free unlike now.

    What US imports will be subject to will be for the government to negotiate
    Let’s be real, the chance of a US trade deal is almost zero.
    The US is our largest export partner, if President Trump is re elected there is a good chance of a deal, if Biden and Pelosi win less so, Biden will not do a deal while we have the internal markets bill and Pelosi will not accept what she thinks are unsafe British food and drugs standards

    Pelosi's so anti-British it's untrue. Almost as bad as Trump. The US FDA seems to be way overcautious on vaccine development compared to ours, they want follow ups for a year post phase 3 before licensing anything there. Completely crackers in a pandemic situation when Covid-19 has known harms.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 18,245

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Not surprising that the government is not too keen on parliament being involved in negotiating international treaties.
    Promises are made to be broken, at least as far as this government goes.

    Chlorinated chicken and drug packed pork are going to be tough sells on the doorsteps.

    It is a gift for Lib Dems wanting to retake rural seats .
    I suspect they would be sold in supermarkets rather on the doorstep.

    And I doubt that purchase would be compulsory.
    In the US they made the standards so weak you can't tell what you're buying.
    Do you support banning imports from countries which do not match UK employment and environmental standards ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066
    edited October 12
    Just watching Trump doing this thing. He really hasn't found how to hit Biden. Trying to drop socialist in there, take your guns, yadda yadda yadda, but no chanting, he hasn't got the "drain the swamp", etc.

    You have to give Trump one thing, his energy is back. For a man who lives such an unhealthy life, does no exercise and just had the plague, his energy levels are quite amazing.
  • In terms of college hand egg, I have only ever been to a very low division college game, is on the bucket list to go to something like a Clemson game.

    Thing to do (post-COVID) is to check out (via web) what is typically on offer re: TAILGATING.

    That is, what kind of delectable victuals are prepared by fans out in the park lot, on or in proximity to their truck tailgates (in the down position).

    Unless you are invested in a particular team OR its geographical area, the actual football at big-league universities is pretty much the same from where-ever to where-ever.

    BUT the food can be quite different. SO try to find out what's cooking, and proceed according to taste and/or curiosity.

    BTW can just about guarantee that a modicum of fan interest combined with an English accent will earn you at least a nibble from approx 99.46% of tailgaters anywhere from Boise to Gainesville.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 10,428
    New Ipsos polls.

    Wisconsin
    Biden 51% (+1)
    Trump 44%

    Pennsylvania
    Biden 51% (+1)
    Trump 44% (-1)
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 10,428
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Not surprising that the government is not too keen on parliament being involved in negotiating international treaties.
    Promises are made to be broken, at least as far as this government goes.

    Chlorinated chicken and drug packed pork are going to be tough sells on the doorsteps.

    It is a gift for Lib Dems wanting to retake rural seats .
    Not if British farmers find a vast new US market for their products, largely tariff free unlike now.

    What US imports will be subject to will be for the government to negotiate
    Let’s be real, the chance of a US trade deal is almost zero.
    The US is our largest export partner, if President Trump is re elected there is a good chance of a deal, if Biden and Pelosi win less so, Biden will not do a deal while we have the internal markets bill and Pelosi will not accept what she thinks are unsafe British food and drugs standards

    twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1314598522919022593?s=20
    Yes that’s what I said.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818

    Just watching Trump doing this thing. He really hasn't found how to hit Biden. Trying to drop socialist in there, take your guns, yadda yadda yadda, but no chanting, he hasn't got the "drain the swamp", etc.

    You have to give Trump one thing, his energy is back. For a man who lives such an unhealthy life, does no exercise and just had the plague, his energy levels are quite amazing.

    He needn't worry, Biden has said he is only running for the Senate now anyway

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466

    Just watching Trump doing this thing. He really hasn't found how to hit Biden. Trying to drop socialist in there, take your guns, yadda yadda yadda, but no chanting, he hasn't got the "drain the swamp", etc.

    You have to give Trump one thing, his energy is back. For a man who lives such an unhealthy life, does no exercise and just had the plague, his energy levels are quite amazing.

    Its amazing what steroids can do isn't it?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 1,206

    Foxy said:

    In terms of college hand egg, I have only ever been to a very low division college game, is on the bucket list to go to something like a Clemson game.

    I can recommend even High School Football. The lack of TV and advertising makes it flow better, and all the razzmatazz of marching bands, cheerleaders and drill team are there.
    In terms of college game, there is also more excitement due to the standard of play not having as high as the NFL. The NFL players are so fast and so powerful, the window of opportunity to make a play is tiny. It is also why many QB who excel at college level don't make it in the NFL, because they take that split second too long to throw it.
    Local high school is a football powerhouse - 5 seasons without a loss. It is a small town, but every game is sold out.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Not surprising that the government is not too keen on parliament being involved in negotiating international treaties.
    Promises are made to be broken, at least as far as this government goes.

    Chlorinated chicken and drug packed pork are going to be tough sells on the doorsteps.

    It is a gift for Lib Dems wanting to retake rural seats .
    Not if British farmers find a vast new US market for their products, largely tariff free unlike now.

    What US imports will be subject to will be for the government to negotiate
    Let’s be real, the chance of a US trade deal is almost zero.
    The US is our largest export partner, if President Trump is re elected there is a good chance of a deal, if Biden and Pelosi win less so, Biden will not do a deal while we have the internal markets bill and Pelosi will not accept what she thinks are unsafe British food and drugs standards

    Realize that your PM is crap at negotiating, as his his role model Trumpsky.

    However, Biden and Pelosi are rather good at it. SO stop frothing at the mouth, throw you present clown college overboard, and find you some semi-competent negotiators.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 170
    edited October 12
    dixiedean said:

    Much of the anti-restriction sentiment seems to come from those who live in areas of very low incidence.
    At least that's the impression I get.

    That's hardly surprising. I live somewhere with practically no cases, but was half anticipating being locked down to tier 2 today because the other end of my council area the best part of an hour away has fairly poor numbers. Fortunately sense seems to have prevailed for the moment.

    I'd be pretty fuming if I get locked down without local cases being high (I'm not at all convinced that it's the answer anyway, given all the various local lockdowns to date don't appear to be making a blind bit of difference). This particularly applies as I've a young lady I'm quite fond of who lives about 150 miles away (also in an area with very few cases), and I'll be very grumpy if I don't get to see her for months again...

    Out of interest, anyone know what the rules are (if any) for social bubbles which run across the boundaries of the tiered areas?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066
    edited October 12

    Just watching Trump doing this thing. He really hasn't found how to hit Biden. Trying to drop socialist in there, take your guns, yadda yadda yadda, but no chanting, he hasn't got the "drain the swamp", etc.

    You have to give Trump one thing, his energy is back. For a man who lives such an unhealthy life, does no exercise and just had the plague, his energy levels are quite amazing.

    Its amazing what steroids can do isn't it?
    Its more than that. He is speaking without any shortage of breath and on form for Trump i.e. speaking total bullshit at 100 miles an hour.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 18,245

    New Ipsos polls.

    Wisconsin
    Biden 51% (+1)
    Trump 44%

    Pennsylvania
    Biden 51% (+1)
    Trump 44% (-1)

    The proper use of plus and minus signs.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 18,245
    HYUFD said:
    The anecdote about him and the broken down care is brilliant IMO.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 10,428
    theProle said:

    dixiedean said:

    Much of the anti-restriction sentiment seems to come from those who live in areas of very low incidence.
    At least that's the impression I get.

    That's hardly surprising. I live somewhere with practically no cases, but was half anticipating being locked down to tier 2 today because the other end of my council area the best part of an hour away has fairly poor numbers. Fortunately sense seems to have prevailed for the moment.

    I'd be pretty fuming if I get locked down without local cases being high (I'm not at all convinced that it's the answer anyway, given all the various local lockdowns to date don't appear to be making a blind bit of difference). This particularly applies as I've a young lady I'm quite fond of who lives about 150 miles away (also in an area with very few cases), and I'll be very grumpy if I don't get to see her for months again...

    Out of interest, anyone know what the rules are (if any) for social bubbles which run across the boundaries of the tiered areas?
    A bubble is a bubble. it doesn’t matter where the parties live.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    Trump is so full of shit.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066
    Following on from Dr Foxy story about reinfection (of a very sick person), here is one of a health young person....

    US confirms its first case of COVID-19 reinfection: Healthy Nevada man, 25, contracted coronavirus twice in 48 days and had to be put on oxygen after getting SICKER during his second bout with the virus

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8832541/Nevada-man-25-contracted-coronavirus-twice-48-days-SICKER-second-bout.html
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066
    edited October 12

    Trump is so full of shit.

    But he says it will real confidence....if you don't really listen too carefully or fact check, he is quite believable.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466

    Following on from Dr Foxy story about reinfection (of a very sick person), here is one of a health young person....

    US confirms its first case of COVID-19 reinfection: Healthy Nevada man, 25, contracted coronavirus twice in 48 days and had to be put on oxygen after getting SICKER during his second bout with the virus

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8832541/Nevada-man-25-contracted-coronavirus-twice-48-days-SICKER-second-bout.html

    Increasing cases of this. Not good news.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066
    edited October 12
    Does Trump read a teleprompter or does he just riff off some notes / cue card on the screens? Because if he is reading a "speech" he definitely doesn't stick to it, so whoever is sending it through the machine, must have to stop / start it constantly.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,901

    Following on from Dr Foxy story about reinfection (of a very sick person), here is one of a health young person....

    US confirms its first case of COVID-19 reinfection: Healthy Nevada man, 25, contracted coronavirus twice in 48 days and had to be put on oxygen after getting SICKER during his second bout with the virus

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8832541/Nevada-man-25-contracted-coronavirus-twice-48-days-SICKER-second-bout.html

    Increasing cases of this. Not good news.
    Every reinfection case pretty much makes the news. It's a man bites dog story. Actual reinfection rates are way below what one might expect if you had an equal chance to get it again as 'fresh' though.
    All it means is the vaccine won't be 100% effective.
  • Just watching Trump doing this thing. He really hasn't found how to hit Biden. Trying to drop socialist in there, take your guns, yadda yadda yadda, but no chanting, he hasn't got the "drain the swamp", etc.

    You have to give Trump one thing, his energy is back. For a man who lives such an unhealthy life, does no exercise and just had the plague, his energy levels are quite amazing.

    Its amazing what steroids can do isn't it?
    Its more than that. He is speaking without any shortage of breath and on form for Trump i.e. speaking total bullshit at 100 miles an hour.
    Wonders of modern pharma. Applied chemical engineering, not just recent days, but over many decades.

    Bet that POTUS has got a medicine chest that would make Rod Stewart green with envy!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    Pulpstar said:

    Following on from Dr Foxy story about reinfection (of a very sick person), here is one of a health young person....

    US confirms its first case of COVID-19 reinfection: Healthy Nevada man, 25, contracted coronavirus twice in 48 days and had to be put on oxygen after getting SICKER during his second bout with the virus

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8832541/Nevada-man-25-contracted-coronavirus-twice-48-days-SICKER-second-bout.html

    Increasing cases of this. Not good news.
    Every reinfection case pretty much makes the news. It's a man bites dog story. Actual reinfection rates are way below what one might expect if you had an equal chance to get it again as 'fresh' though.
    All it means is the vaccine won't be 100% effective.
    Not every case. Some cases do indeed but one of my wife's colleagues has been reinfected and it's not hit the news.

    You're certainly right that it's not (yet) massive numbers but it feels a bit closer to home when you know someone it's happened to.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,048
    TimT said:

    Foxy said:

    In terms of college hand egg, I have only ever been to a very low division college game, is on the bucket list to go to something like a Clemson game.

    I can recommend even High School Football. The lack of TV and advertising makes it flow better, and all the razzmatazz of marching bands, cheerleaders and drill team are there.
    In terms of college game, there is also more excitement due to the standard of play not having as high as the NFL. The NFL players are so fast and so powerful, the window of opportunity to make a play is tiny. It is also why many QB who excel at college level don't make it in the NFL, because they take that split second too long to throw it.
    Local high school is a football powerhouse - 5 seasons without a loss. It is a small town, but every game is sold out.
    They beat the local middle school 48-0 last week, and that's nothing compared to the whooping they gave the elementary school.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 1,206
    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    Foxy said:

    In terms of college hand egg, I have only ever been to a very low division college game, is on the bucket list to go to something like a Clemson game.

    I can recommend even High School Football. The lack of TV and advertising makes it flow better, and all the razzmatazz of marching bands, cheerleaders and drill team are there.
    In terms of college game, there is also more excitement due to the standard of play not having as high as the NFL. The NFL players are so fast and so powerful, the window of opportunity to make a play is tiny. It is also why many QB who excel at college level don't make it in the NFL, because they take that split second too long to throw it.
    Local high school is a football powerhouse - 5 seasons without a loss. It is a small town, but every game is sold out.
    They beat the local middle school 48-0 last week, and that's nothing compared to the whooping they gave the elementary school.
    LOL. 48-0 is the score after the first quarter at which point the second team is sent on. By the 3rd quarter, the 5th team is on and the refs invoke the mercy rule.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,319

    Trump is so full of shit.

    Isn't there medication that deals with that?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,324
    Trump could get 46% again but it almost certainly won't be enough. He probably has to increase his share slightly to have a chance, because third party voters from 2016 seem to have moved to Biden.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066
    edited October 12
    Apparently Trump has 3 or 4 Noble Peace Prizes, according to him ;-)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,901
    There's material for a Florida attack advert in here for the Democrats if they want to use it.



  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,901

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Not surprising that the government is not too keen on parliament being involved in negotiating international treaties.
    Promises are made to be broken, at least as far as this government goes.

    Chlorinated chicken and drug packed pork are going to be tough sells on the doorsteps.

    It is a gift for Lib Dems wanting to retake rural seats .
    Not if British farmers find a vast new US market for their products, largely tariff free unlike now.

    What US imports will be subject to will be for the government to negotiate
    Let’s be real, the chance of a US trade deal is almost zero.
    The US is our largest export partner, if President Trump is re elected there is a good chance of a deal, if Biden and Pelosi win less so, Biden will not do a deal while we have the internal markets bill and Pelosi will not accept what she thinks are unsafe British food and drugs standards

    Realize that your PM is crap at negotiating, as his his role model Trumpsky.

    However, Biden and Pelosi are rather good at it. SO stop frothing at the mouth, throw you present clown college overboard, and find you some semi-competent negotiators.
    Negotiating is much easier when you've got an economy with the weight of the USA, or a block the size of the EU. One of the reasons us voting to leave the EU was .. unfortunate.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066
    edited October 12
    Too late, but I think Trump has a slogan that the crowd go with, "The best is yet to come".
  • Trump is so full of shit.

    Isn't there medication that deals with that?
    Yes. But at least there's now a credible explanation for the "orange" skin.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066
    He exits to YMCA....bizarre.
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