CNN interviewing people at Trumps rally . Clearly we’re looking at a cult that would happily die for the dear leader . The ignorance is staggering . Even if Biden wins the reality is there’s a section of America who need to be sterilized so their moronic genes can’t further pollute the USA gene pool.
I think the wildcard scenario for Trump is that he loses with good grace, and everyone is so shocked that they let him retire with dignity.
He won't go with good grace, but for all the talk of rigged election, deep state, not accepting the result, I think it is all talk like so many of his pronouncements.
I think he will moan about the fake news media, how horrible Biden will be and how great America would be after another 4 more years of him, but anything more than that I don't think so.
CNN interviewing people at Trumps rally . Clearly we’re looking at a cult that would happily die for the dear leader . The ignorance is staggering . Even if Biden wins the reality is there’s a section of America who need to be sterilized so their moronic genes can’t further pollute the USA gene pool.
Don't you think that sort of attitude might be what has made people like Trump so popular in the first place?
Following on from Dr Foxy story about reinfection (of a very sick person), here is one of a health young person....
US confirms its first case of COVID-19 reinfection: Healthy Nevada man, 25, contracted coronavirus twice in 48 days and had to be put on oxygen after getting SICKER during his second bout with the virus
Get a grip. The virus has now infected well in excess of 100 million people worldwide and there are presently single digit numbers of recorded cases of reinfection.
Dunno why HYUFD is worried about lockdown and Tory back benchers. Doesn't he know they have a majority of 80 and can rely on said back benches to vote down their own manifesto?
It'll be fine. Sheep do what the Dogs tell them to do.
CNN interviewing people at Trumps rally . Clearly we’re looking at a cult that would happily die for the dear leader . The ignorance is staggering . Even if Biden wins the reality is there’s a section of America who need to be sterilized so their moronic genes can’t further pollute the USA gene pool.
Don't you think that sort of attitude might be what has made people like Trump so popular in the first place?
New research explores authoritarian mind-set of Trump’s core supporters https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/10/12/trump-voter-authoritarian-research/ ... They found a striking linear relationship between support for Trump and an authoritarian mind-set: The stronger a person supported Trump, the higher he or she scored on the RWA scale. People saying they strongly disapproved of Trump, for instance, had an average RWA score of 54. Those indicating complete support of the president, on the other hand, had an average score of 119, more than twice as authoritarian as Trump opponents. Many fervent Trump supporters, Altemeyer and Dean write, “are submissive, fearful, and longing for a mighty leader who will protect them from life’s threats. They divide the world into friend and foe, with the latter greatly outnumbering the former.”...
Dunno why HYUFD is worried about lockdown and Tory back benchers. Doesn't he know they have a majority of 80 and can rely on said back benches to vote down their own manifesto?
It'll be fine. Sheep do what the Dogs tell them to do.
In this case, lemmings follow the leader off a cliff.
Can someone tell me what the exit strategy is from all this if there isn't an effective vaccine available sometime in the near future? I've yet to hear a good answer from anyone in power on this point.
Can someone tell me what the exit strategy is from all this if there isn't an effective vaccine available sometime in the near future? I've yet to hear a good answer from anyone in power on this point.
I admire your optimism in thinking there might be one.
Not surprising that the government is not too keen on parliament being involved in negotiating international treaties.
Promises are made to be broken, at least as far as this government goes.
Chlorinated chicken and drug packed pork are going to be tough sells on the doorsteps.
It is a gift for Lib Dems wanting to retake rural seats .
I suspect they would be sold in supermarkets rather on the doorstep.
And I doubt that purchase would be compulsory.
In the US they made the standards so weak you can't tell what you're buying.
Do you support banning imports from countries which do not match UK employment and environmental standards ?
I'll put it the other way round. Do you support imports from overseas companies that employ slave labour? Or from companies that lock all the factory doors so there is no way to exit to the factory in a fire?
There is obviously a mid-point between "banning imports from countries which do not match UK employment and environmental standards" and no standards what so ever.
Can someone tell me what the exit strategy is from all this if there isn't an effective vaccine available sometime in the near future? I've yet to hear a good answer from anyone in power on this point.
I admire your optimism in thinking there might be one.
Sadly it pessimism from my side! In Oz we've only been able to keep it under control by locking down the international borders. Given the 'East German option' isn't viable at all in the long run, we face exactly the same issue.
Everyone is betting the house on this vaccine, and there doesn't seem to be any semblance of a plan B. I can't be the only one starting to think that we're all going to have to consider the 'let it rip' approach at some point? As ghoulish as that sounds i'm struggling to think of what else works. (I say this not as a swivel eyed libertarian, but a left of centre boring type).
Can someone tell me what the exit strategy is from all this if there isn't an effective vaccine available sometime in the near future? I've yet to hear a good answer from anyone in power on this point.
The Anglo-French Fishing War of 2021. Union flags being waved by mask-covered wives as their menfolk sail off to sink the General Belgrano evil fishing menace to save the Tory Party
Dunno why HYUFD is worried about lockdown and Tory back benchers. Doesn't he know they have a majority of 80 and can rely on said back benches to vote down their own manifesto?
It'll be fine. Sheep do what the Dogs tell them to do.
Yet the truth is that the fact of only being one case so far out of the millions who have had the virus and likely been exposed to it again is hugely powerful evidence of significant immunity.
Can someone tell me what the exit strategy is from all this if there isn't an effective vaccine available sometime in the near future? I've yet to hear a good answer from anyone in power on this point.
I admire your optimism in thinking there might be one.
Sadly it pessimism from my side! In Oz we've only been able to keep it under control by locking down the international borders. Given the 'East German option' isn't viable at all in the long run, we face exactly the same issue.
Everyone is betting the house on this vaccine, and there doesn't seem to be any semblance of a plan B. I can't be the only one starting to think that we're all going to have to consider the 'let it rip' approach at some point? As ghoulish as that sounds i'm struggling to think of what else works. (I say this not as a swivel eyed libertarian, but a left of centre boring type).
OK, I'll be more upbeat. Look at the difference between now and March. Tests are much easier to get now. There are problems with the availability of tests being in the right place, but this is a logistics thing which is easy to improve on. Some type of tests results are much quicker now. So the possibility to impose "you can do X as long as you have tested negative" will become realistic.
The medical knowledge how to treat worst case and middle case COVID patients has improved considerably, that will only get better. Those who do get ill won't be hit so hard.
We will find more ways to do things outside (In this respect Australia has a great head sart) even in the harsh Berlin winter and ways to hold events while being fairly safe. We will have much better science about what activities are fine, and what activities are not.
Eventually herd-immuity-lite will grow so the hot spots wont be so hot.
This is not an "open up the champagne" answer, but a "we will learn how we can live with the disease sensibly".
Can someone tell me what the exit strategy is from all this if there isn't an effective vaccine available sometime in the near future? I've yet to hear a good answer from anyone in power on this point.
I admire your optimism in thinking there might be one.
Sadly it pessimism from my side! In Oz we've only been able to keep it under control by locking down the international borders. Given the 'East German option' isn't viable at all in the long run, we face exactly the same issue.
Everyone is betting the house on this vaccine, and there doesn't seem to be any semblance of a plan B. I can't be the only one starting to think that we're all going to have to consider the 'let it rip' approach at some point? As ghoulish as that sounds i'm struggling to think of what else works. (I say this not as a swivel eyed libertarian, but a left of centre boring type).
OK, I'll be more upbeat. Look at the difference between now and March. Tests are much easier to get now. There are problems with the availability of tests being in the right place, but this is a logistics thing which is easy to improve on. Some type of tests results are much quicker now. So the possibility to impose "you can do X as long as you have tested negative" will become realistic.
The medical knowledge how to treat worst case and middle case COVID patients has improved considerably, that will only get better. Those who do get ill won't be hit so hard.
We will find more ways to do things outside (In this respect Australia has a great head sart) even in the harsh Berlin winter and ways to hold events while being fairly safe. We will have much better science about what activities are fine, and what activities are not.
Eventually herd-immuity-lite will grow so the hot spots wont be so hot.
This is not an "open up the champagne" answer, but a "we will learn how we can live with the disease sensibly".
Germany is ahead of us on this, largely because sensible precautions are much more widely observed.
Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.
“This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”
Yet the truth is that the fact of only being one case so far out of the millions who have had the virus and likely been exposed to it again is hugely powerful evidence of significant immunity.
It's not common but this isn't the first re infection case.
CNN: Mckee (professor of European public health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) said that instead of focusing on the source of infection, the UK has "hit whole communities with a hammer" of localized lockdowns without consulting local leaders. He says such measures are appropriate "if you don't have intelligence" on the source of an outbreak, but adds: "The UK should not be in that position at this stage."
Even the economic situation looks less stark. The IMF forecasts that the economy in the Asia-Pacific region will contract by 0.2% this year, while those in US and Western Europe are expected to sink by 5.9% and 7.3% respectively.
Communication strategies are an underestimated "non-pharmaceutical intervention" which are not only useful in the short term -- by encouraging measures like mask usage -- but have long-term uses as well, says Heidi Tworek, an associate professor of international history and public policy at the University of British Columbia, who authored a report on democratic communications during the pandemic. The report analyzed three democratic jurisdictions in the Asia-Pacific region -- Taiwan, New Zealand, and South Korea -- and found that cohesive messages from those governments were useful in forestalling "compliance fatigue" and laid the foundation for vaccine uptake. "They also matter for cultivating trust among citizens and their governments -- trust that is critical for the future stability of democratic institutions," the report stated.
America's largest roadblock remains its President, who has repeatedly called into question the integrity of the democratic process by undermining the safest way to hand in a ballot in a pandemic: Mail-in voting. As Trump continues to downplay the threat of the virus, another 20,000 Covid-19 deaths are "inevitable" by the end of the month, former director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Tom Frieden, told CNN this weekend. Unlike the Asia-Pacific region, the West appears to be well on its way to a tragic winter.
Yet the truth is that the fact of only being one case so far out of the millions who have had the virus and likely been exposed to it again is hugely powerful evidence of significant immunity.
It’s one of several confirmed cases around the world - and a useful antidote to the Charlatan in Chief claiming he’s immune.
Can someone tell me what the exit strategy is from all this if there isn't an effective vaccine available sometime in the near future? I've yet to hear a good answer from anyone in power on this point.
I admire your optimism in thinking there might be one.
Sadly it pessimism from my side! In Oz we've only been able to keep it under control by locking down the international borders. Given the 'East German option' isn't viable at all in the long run, we face exactly the same issue.
Everyone is betting the house on this vaccine, and there doesn't seem to be any semblance of a plan B. I can't be the only one starting to think that we're all going to have to consider the 'let it rip' approach at some point? As ghoulish as that sounds i'm struggling to think of what else works. (I say this not as a swivel eyed libertarian, but a left of centre boring type).
OK, I'll be more upbeat. Look at the difference between now and March. Tests are much easier to get now. There are problems with the availability of tests being in the right place, but this is a logistics thing which is easy to improve on. Some type of tests results are much quicker now. So the possibility to impose "you can do X as long as you have tested negative" will become realistic.
The medical knowledge how to treat worst case and middle case COVID patients has improved considerably, that will only get better. Those who do get ill won't be hit so hard.
We will find more ways to do things outside (In this respect Australia has a great head sart) even in the harsh Berlin winter and ways to hold events while being fairly safe. We will have much better science about what activities are fine, and what activities are not.
Eventually herd-immuity-lite will grow so the hot spots wont be so hot.
This is not an "open up the champagne" answer, but a "we will learn how we can live with the disease sensibly".
Spot on - and even a successful vaccine will not be 100% effective or suitable for everyone. There is unlikely to be a single magic bullet but a combination of vaccines, treatments and some restrictions will enable some return to normality. Not like before and we will all be poorer but a useful lesson for those who still think everything always has to be better. Sometimes things go backwards a bit. In 1980 I got a new job with more basic wage but because it was outside London my salary dropped by around £2000 a year. I discovered that just as big pay rises soon get asorbed and forgotten - the same applies in reverse. There are always upsides.
Yet the truth is that the fact of only being one case so far out of the millions who have had the virus and likely been exposed to it again is hugely powerful evidence of significant immunity.
It's not common but this isn't the first re infection case.
Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.
“This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”
What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
CNN interviewing people at Trumps rally . Clearly we’re looking at a cult that would happily die for the dear leader . The ignorance is staggering . Even if Biden wins the reality is there’s a section of America who need to be sterilized so their moronic genes can’t further pollute the USA gene pool.
Don't you think that sort of attitude might be what has made people like Trump so popular in the first place?
CNN: Mckee (professor of European public health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) said that instead of focusing on the source of infection, the UK has "hit whole communities with a hammer" of localized lockdowns without consulting local leaders. He says such measures are appropriate "if you don't have intelligence" on the source of an outbreak, but adds: "The UK should not be in that position at this stage."
We would be in a much better place, if people such as McKee dropped such hyperbolic language and engaged with the discussion constructively.
Along with a significant chunk of the media (see Times cartoon above for a good example), they give the impression of wanting to undermine public support for dealing with the virus.
Can someone tell me what the exit strategy is from all this if there isn't an effective vaccine available sometime in the near future? I've yet to hear a good answer from anyone in power on this point.
I admire your optimism in thinking there might be one.
Sadly it pessimism from my side! In Oz we've only been able to keep it under control by locking down the international borders. Given the 'East German option' isn't viable at all in the long run, we face exactly the same issue.
Everyone is betting the house on this vaccine, and there doesn't seem to be any semblance of a plan B. I can't be the only one starting to think that we're all going to have to consider the 'let it rip' approach at some point? As ghoulish as that sounds i'm struggling to think of what else works. (I say this not as a swivel eyed libertarian, but a left of centre boring type).
OK, I'll be more upbeat. Look at the difference between now and March. Tests are much easier to get now. There are problems with the availability of tests being in the right place, but this is a logistics thing which is easy to improve on. Some type of tests results are much quicker now. So the possibility to impose "you can do X as long as you have tested negative" will become realistic.
The medical knowledge how to treat worst case and middle case COVID patients has improved considerably, that will only get better. Those who do get ill won't be hit so hard.
We will find more ways to do things outside (In this respect Australia has a great head sart) even in the harsh Berlin winter and ways to hold events while being fairly safe. We will have much better science about what activities are fine, and what activities are not.
Eventually herd-immuity-lite will grow so the hot spots wont be so hot.
This is not an "open up the champagne" answer, but a "we will learn how we can live with the disease sensibly".
Yes, there is no magic bullet, but rather a lot of smaller incremental improvements in therapy. Still a nasty bug, but gradually getting there even without a vaccine. Procrastination about death is often wise, as something may well turn up.
Reinfection is a worry. Yes it is rare at present, but it does seem to point to immunity being shortlived.
Can someone tell me what the exit strategy is from all this if there isn't an effective vaccine available sometime in the near future? I've yet to hear a good answer from anyone in power on this point.
I admire your optimism in thinking there might be one.
Sadly it pessimism from my side! In Oz we've only been able to keep it under control by locking down the international borders. Given the 'East German option' isn't viable at all in the long run, we face exactly the same issue.
Everyone is betting the house on this vaccine, and there doesn't seem to be any semblance of a plan B. I can't be the only one starting to think that we're all going to have to consider the 'let it rip' approach at some point? As ghoulish as that sounds i'm struggling to think of what else works. (I say this not as a swivel eyed libertarian, but a left of centre boring type).
OK, I'll be more upbeat. Look at the difference between now and March. Tests are much easier to get now. There are problems with the availability of tests being in the right place, but this is a logistics thing which is easy to improve on. Some type of tests results are much quicker now. So the possibility to impose "you can do X as long as you have tested negative" will become realistic.
The medical knowledge how to treat worst case and middle case COVID patients has improved considerably, that will only get better. Those who do get ill won't be hit so hard.
We will find more ways to do things outside (In this respect Australia has a great head sart) even in the harsh Berlin winter and ways to hold events while being fairly safe. We will have much better science about what activities are fine, and what activities are not.
Eventually herd-immuity-lite will grow so the hot spots wont be so hot.
This is not an "open up the champagne" answer, but a "we will learn how we can live with the disease sensibly".
Yes, there is no magic bullet, but rather a lot of smaller incremental improvements in therapy. Still a nasty bug, but gradually getting there even without a vaccine. Procrastination about death is often wise, as something may well turn up.
Reinfection is a worry. Yes it is rare at present, but it does seem to point to immunity being shortlived.
Not universal (which is almost always true) is more likely than short lived, surely? At least until significant mutation.
Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.
“This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”
What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
Mr. B2, it's interesting to consider if it's a lack of intelligence, a lack of courage, or both. I'd suggest both. The PM is scared of not being liked and, for all his dipping into Latin, is not intellectually confident enough to stand up for what he believes to be the right course of action.
Inaction and vacillation are also choices, and when that lurches into decisions without consultation or forewarning it's easy to see why people are aggravated by that.
It is an unfortunate coincidence that at the time of the first pandemic in a century we're governed by a cretin.
Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.
“This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”
What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideals l
Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.
“This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”
What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideal leader for now but the level of criticism from the 'chatterers' is a contant source of amusement.
CNN interviewing people at Trumps rally . Clearly we’re looking at a cult that would happily die for the dear leader . The ignorance is staggering . Even if Biden wins the reality is there’s a section of America who need to be sterilized so their moronic genes can’t further pollute the USA gene pool.
Don't you think that sort of attitude might be what has made people like Trump so popular in the first place?
Ah yes but Trump’s vote share was lower than Romney’s so it doesn’t really matter.
In seriousness, this failure of people to recognise that many of his voters turned to Trump out of desperation not from adulation is staggering.
It’s the same sort of mindset that calls his voters racist without realising that many of them voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012. What, did they think Obama was a White man?
Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.
“This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”
What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideals l
Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.
“This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”
What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideal leader for now but the level of criticism from the 'chatterers' is a contant source of amusement.
politics is what comes before and after an election campaign, though, isn't it?
Mr. B2, it's interesting to consider if it's a lack of intelligence, a lack of courage, or both. I'd suggest both. The PM is scared of not being liked and, for all his dipping into Latin, is not intellectually confident enough to stand up for what he believes to be the right course of action.
Inaction and vacillation are also choices, and when that lurches into decisions without consultation or forewarning it's easy to see why people are aggravated by that.
It is an unfortunate coincidence that at the time of the first pandemic in a century we're governed by a cretin.
Good Morning everyone.
Very good post, Mr D. I don't think Johnson's a cretin, though. I think he's narcissistic; really, really wants to be 'loved', and makes decisions on that basis. He also comes across as extremely selfish.
Dunno why HYUFD is worried about lockdown and Tory back benchers. Doesn't he know they have a majority of 80 and can rely on said back benches to vote down their own manifesto?
It'll be fine. Sheep do what the Dogs tell them to do.
Can someone tell me what the exit strategy is from all this if there isn't an effective vaccine available sometime in the near future? I've yet to hear a good answer from anyone in power on this point.
I admire your optimism in thinking there might be one.
Sadly it pessimism from my side! In Oz we've only been able to keep it under control by locking down the international borders. Given the 'East German option' isn't viable at all in the long run, we face exactly the same issue.
Everyone is betting the house on this vaccine, and there doesn't seem to be any semblance of a plan B. I can't be the only one starting to think that we're all going to have to consider the 'let it rip' approach at some point? As ghoulish as that sounds i'm struggling to think of what else works. (I say this not as a swivel eyed libertarian, but a left of centre boring type).
OK, I'll be more upbeat. Look at the difference between now and March. Tests are much easier to get now. There are problems with the availability of tests being in the right place, but this is a logistics thing which is easy to improve on. Some type of tests results are much quicker now. So the possibility to impose "you can do X as long as you have tested negative" will become realistic.
The medical knowledge how to treat worst case and middle case COVID patients has improved considerably, that will only get better. Those who do get ill won't be hit so hard.
We will find more ways to do things outside (In this respect Australia has a great head sart) even in the harsh Berlin winter and ways to hold events while being fairly safe. We will have much better science about what activities are fine, and what activities are not.
Eventually herd-immuity-lite will grow so the hot spots wont be so hot.
This is not an "open up the champagne" answer, but a "we will learn how we can live with the disease sensibly".
Yes, there is no magic bullet, but rather a lot of smaller incremental improvements in therapy. Still a nasty bug, but gradually getting there even without a vaccine. Procrastination about death is often wise, as something may well turn up.
Reinfection is a worry. Yes it is rare at present, but it does seem to point to immunity being shortlived.
Not universal (which is almost always true) is more likely than short lived, surely? At least until significant mutation.
It could be either, or both. We have a number of staff confirmed cases, without antibodies.
I suspect that there would be at least partial immunity and therefore attenuated disease in most cases, but who really knows yet?
It's a meeting with people who don't live with you, for purely social reasons.
There are some exceptions, so for example my brother and his wife form a 'bubble' with her mother who lives alone, which means that they can see each other but no-one else.
Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.
“This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”
What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideals l
Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.
“This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”
What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideal leader for now but the level of criticism from the 'chatterers' is a contant source of amusement.
Johnson is a first class campaigner. So from that point of view he is very good at this element of politics.
Johnson is poor at making consistent political decisions, therefore he not very good at this element of politics.
I suspect therefore, it all hinges on one's definition of politics. If campaigning is one's priority you are right, Johnson is a political master.
Turn the radio on for Today. Within two minutes I am shouting at it. Didn't catch the name but some science advisor seemed to saying unless we have a full national lockdown the virus will double and then double again and then double again ad infinitum until we do lockdown.
Mr. B2, it's interesting to consider if it's a lack of intelligence, a lack of courage, or both. I'd suggest both. The PM is scared of not being liked and, for all his dipping into Latin, is not intellectually confident enough to stand up for what he believes to be the right course of action.
Inaction and vacillation are also choices, and when that lurches into decisions without consultation or forewarning it's easy to see why people are aggravated by that.
It is an unfortunate coincidence that at the time of the first pandemic in a century we're governed by a cretin.
Good Morning everyone.
Very good post, Mr D. I don't think Johnson's a cretin, though. I think he's narcissistic; really, really wants to be 'loved', and makes decisions on that basis. He also comes across as extremely selfish.
I am reminded of the anecdote where he went around promising the same job to a whole bunch of people, during his first abortive leadership bid (the one that got Gove to say he was unsuitable to lead).
Yesterday he clearly annoyed the Liverpool Mayor, his own Birmingham Mayor, a lot of the scientists, and a bunch of his own backbenchers.
On Liverpool, where he claimed in parliament that he had the Mayor's support and name-checked him several times, only for this to be denied afterwards, the most credible explanation is that Liverpool did in fact acquiesce to the tighter rules but understanding that they would apply to the whole of the North. No-one went back to explain that, post Burnham, the decision had changed, and they were well miffed to find Liverpool singled out in a way they werent expecting.
Which is bad politics.
Something similar appears to have happened with Street, who seems to have been consulted and thinks he agreed to something different from what was actually decided.
Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.
“This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”
What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideals l
Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.
“This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”
What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideal leader for now but the level of criticism from the 'chatterers' is a contant source of amusement.
politics is what comes before and after an election campaign, though, isn't it?
No - the politics never stops, but even accepting the idea makes the point. And it is not unusual for parties and leaders to lose popularity after an election. The oddity this time is how the Tory vote is holding up in the face of extraordinary circumstances. I watch this from the Spanish perspective - the arguments in the UK bear striking similarity to those here - and it is the same in many other European countries. I am often struck by how insular the UK media is and within by how London centric., eg the other day there was the picture of 10pm revellers in Piccadilly as a sign of how the UK was reacting to early closing! Do me a favour. There is no sense of proportion in the criticism, no understanding of the difficult balances to be struck. No understanding that New Zealand is not the UK ffs.
Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.
“This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”
What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideals l
Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.
“This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”
What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideal leader for now but the level of criticism from the 'chatterers' is a contant source of amusement.
As I have said many times; winning a beauty contest against an ugly competitor was only a victory on the day. Johnson's apologists keep harping back to this as though it is the only thing that matters. You cannot govern if you cannot win, but there is little point in winning if you cannot govern.
What matters to the country is Johnson's ability to lead. This, he is clearly unsuited to. The Conservatives will have to replace him. The longer he is in post the greater the damage to what remains of the reputation of his party and the country for the longer term. The Conservatives used to have one core purpose; good governance. They have now had two leaders in a row who were not up to the job, and that, regrettably, will eventually seep into the public consciousness.
Mr. B2, it's interesting to consider if it's a lack of intelligence, a lack of courage, or both. I'd suggest both. The PM is scared of not being liked and, for all his dipping into Latin, is not intellectually confident enough to stand up for what he believes to be the right course of action.
Inaction and vacillation are also choices, and when that lurches into decisions without consultation or forewarning it's easy to see why people are aggravated by that.
It is an unfortunate coincidence that at the time of the first pandemic in a century we're governed by a cretin.
Good Morning everyone.
Very good post, Mr D. I don't think Johnson's a cretin, though. I think he's narcissistic; really, really wants to be 'loved', and makes decisions on that basis. He also comes across as extremely selfish.
Give me a PM who prefers to be respected (Thatcher) rather than liked (Johnson) any day of the week. Thatcher would not be happy with current Con polling leads - all it would show to her was that the government wasn’t taking the difficult unpopular decisions early in its term, to reap the rewards later.
It's the micromanagement of the electoral process by the politicians at various levels that gets me - a system that couldn't be designed better if you wanted to encourage skullduggery and partisanship.
The election itself should be run by a 'career' civil servant in each area, reporting to a 'career' civil servant in each State, with no politicians involved except to observe.
Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.
“This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”
What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideals l
Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.
“This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”
What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideal leader for now but the level of criticism from the 'chatterers' is a contant source of amusement.
Johnson is a first class campaigner. So from that point of view he is very good at this element of politics.
Johnson is poor at making consistent political decisions, therefore he not very good at this element of politics.
I suspect therefore, it all hinges on one's definition of politics. If campaigning is one's priority you are right, Johnson is a political master.
I don't disagree with that. I do think though that judgement of Johnson is distorted by a level of sour grapes which ignores the extraordinarily difficult circumstances of this crisis. He is far from perfect but I am unconvinced that any other PM right now would be being lauded on all sides either.
Yet the truth is that the fact of only being one case so far out of the millions who have had the virus and likely been exposed to it again is hugely powerful evidence of significant immunity.
It's not common but this isn't the first re infection case.
FT says it’s the US’s first confirmed.
It’s an interesting question as to what proportion of reinfections are likely to be identified and confirmed as such. Anecdotally, I have a relative in Arizona who has had it twice, three months apart, and was tested on both occasions. They certainly don’t appear in the figures.
Does the testing system over here guarantee that cases of reinfection would be flagged up ? I would assume so, but is that correct ?
It's a meeting with people who don't live with you, for purely social reasons.
There are some exceptions, so for example my brother and his wife form a 'bubble' with her mother who lives alone, which means that they can see each other but no-one else.
That’s fine in a home, but in a pub? I can be sat at the same table as someone, someone I may not even know, but have no social contact with them. A gathering?
I sit at an adjacent table to somebody (who I may or may not know) and engage the in conversation. A gathering?
I know this seems like nitpicking but when we we discussing the “Tier 2” type regulations the other day, people covered by them said that they were universally being turned a blind eye to. Don’t ask don’t tell. It is obvious that doing this is the only way for pubs and restaurants to be remotely viable in Tier 2 restricted areas.
However if you are going to go down the “blind eye” route, it is quite useful to actually know whether you are in danger of actually being prosecuted.
What if pubs put in loads of small tables for example?
Johnson is not very good at government. Too much detail and work. He is pretty good at communicating, right up until the point when there is something important or moderately complex to explain. If he can’t make a joke of it he gets bored and gives up.
It's a meeting with people who don't live with you, for purely social reasons.
There are some exceptions, so for example my brother and his wife form a 'bubble' with her mother who lives alone, which means that they can see each other but no-one else.
That’s fine in a home, but in a pub? I can be sat at the same table as someone, someone I may not even know, but have no social contact with them. A gathering?
I sit at an adjacent table to somebody (who I may or may not know) and engage the in conversation. A gathering?
I know this seems like nitpicking but when we we discussing the “Tier 2” type regulations the other day, people covered by them said that they were universally being turned a blind eye to. Don’t ask don’t tell. It is obvious that doing this is the only way for pubs and restaurants to be remotely viable in Tier 2 restricted areas.
However if you are going to go down the “blind eye” route, it is quite useful to actually know whether you are in danger of actually being prosecuted.
What if pubs put in loads of small tables for example?
In the HIGH regulations - linked above - the word "gathering" appears one hundred and forty eight times, so plenty for you to get your teeth into....
Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.
“This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”
What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideals l
Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.
“This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”
What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideal leader for now but the level of criticism from the 'chatterers' is a contant source of amusement.
As I have said many times; winning a beauty contest against an ugly competitor was only a victory on the day. Johnson's apologists keep harping back to this as though it is the only thing that matters. You cannot govern if you cannot win, but there is little point in winning if you cannot govern.
What matters to the country is Johnson's ability to lead. This, he is clearly unsuited to. The Conservatives will have to replace him. The longer he is in post the greater the damage to what remains of the reputation of his party and the country for the longer term. The Conservatives used to have one core purpose; good governance. They have now had two leaders in a row who were not up to the job, and that, regrettably, will eventually seep into the public consciousness.
It is pretty clear that he will probably remain PM intil the denouement of the current crisis and then be replaced. The party will survive in good order if history is anything to go by. As it is I think the victory against Corbyn was important and necessary - for that he has my gratitude.
Journalists seem to be back to trying to push ministers into a full, national lockdown.
Grossly overstepping their role imho.
UK journalists have been grossly overstepping their role since about February.
They don't understand the technical subject matter, all live in Islington, all hate the government for Brexit and think that politics as usual is the way through this - when it clearly isn't. War and Pandemic are not normal situations and require a change of attitude.
Government IMO need to sidestep the mainstream media as much as possible - lots of public information camplaigns on TV, radio and social media, with ministers answering any and all questions by telling people to read the official advice at emergency.gov.uk
Turn the radio on for Today. Within two minutes I am shouting at it. Didn't catch the name but some science advisor seemed to saying unless we have a full national lockdown the virus will double and then double again and then double again ad infinitum until we do lockdown.
Sage recommended a 2 to 3 circuit breaker in September but to close down the whole economy is irresponsible, especially as large parts do not have the levels of infection as the metro areas
Andy Burnham saying he thinks we should have a circuit breaker thereby wanting to close down the whole economy rather than address why his area is in the situation it is. Also as in the previous lockdown who is to guarantee a circuit break will last for 3 weeks and how we would ever get out of it
I believe the present 3 tiers is the best way forward and the rules are more easily understood
In the end there are those who want complete lockdown and others who want the exact opposite, while there are many who just want the government to fail because they are implementing Brexit
I do not envy any leader at present and in all this furore it needs to be noted that a lot of tier 3 requirements were implemented in Scotland by Nicola Sturgeon three weeks ago, and today we have Drakeford threatening to close the Welsh border, yes he really is
This is unnecessary scare mongering. For one, it is only one of many potential vaccines, and secondly it is perfectly normal in any study to get adverse reactions in candidates. This is the purpose of the trial to test efficacy and safety. It would be unusual if a trail did not have any adverse events, unless of course, it takes place in China, Russia or North Korea!
King Cole, I disagree on narcissism. Narcissus had his faults but a lack of self-love wasn't one of them. The PM's insecure and wants those around him to like him.
As Francis Urquhart said, a good trait to have. In a spaniel. Or a whore. But not a PM.
Edited extra bit: Narcissus was so unconcerned with whether those around him liked him that the pining Echo literally faded away to nothing because he was too busy contemplating his own reflection.
Journalists seem to be back to trying to push ministers into a full, national lockdown.
Grossly overstepping their role imho.
UK journalists have been grossly overstepping their role since about February.
They don't understand the technical subject matter, all live in Islington, all hate the government for Brexit and think that politics as usual is the way through this - when it clearly isn't. War and Pandemic are not normal situations and require a change of attitude.
Government IMO need to sidestep the mainstream media as much as possible - lots of public information camplaigns on TV, radio and social media, with ministers answering any and all questions by telling people to read the official advice at emergency.gov.uk
You’re dangerously close to a Trumpian point of view there. You’ll be banging on about the MSM or fake news next.
When you cut a long story short, there is a growing trend for governments that can’t handle scrutiny, criticism and simple questions of clarification. They have some bizarre notion that a grateful nation needs to do as it’s told and praise their kindness and wisdom. All despite the obvious that they are out of their depth.
I don't disagree with that. I do think though that judgement of Johnson is distorted by a level of sour grapes which ignores the extraordinarily difficult circumstances of this crisis. He is far from perfect but I am unconvinced that any other PM right now would be being lauded on all sides either.
No
BoZo has made a number of explicit moves that made the crisis worse that other leaders would not have made (probably)
Expelling all the talent. Hiring Dom. Not firing Dom.
Turn the radio on for Today. Within two minutes I am shouting at it. Didn't catch the name but some science advisor seemed to saying unless we have a full national lockdown the virus will double and then double again and then double again ad infinitum until we do lockdown.
Sage recommended a 2 to 3 circuit breaker in September but to close down the whole economy is irresponsible, especially as large parts do not have the levels of infection as the metro areas
Andy Burnham saying he thinks we should have a circuit breaker thereby wanting to close down the whole economy rather than address why his area is in the situation it is. Also as in the previous lockdown who is to guarantee a circuit break will last for 3 weeks and how we would ever get out of it
I believe the present 3 tiers is the best way forward and the rules are more easily understood
In the end there are those who want complete lockdown and others who want the exact opposite, while there are many who just want the government to fail because they are implementing Brexit
I do not envy any leader at present and in all this furore it needs to be noted that a lot of tier 3 requirements were implemented in Scotland by Nicola Sturgeon three weeks ago, and today we have Drakeford threatening to close the Welsh border, yes he really is
Name one person who wants the government to fail because they implemented brexit, what utter tosh.
Put simply, anyone who knows anything about pubs knows that they (in general) can't remain viable under Tier 2 restrictions unless they effectively ignore them. So either they continue to operate as if they are in Tier 1. Or they shut down (Tier 3 without the cash).
I can't see the current Tier system, with current levels of financial support - only available to Tier 3 - lasting very long because of this. Yet another example of the Govt putting in a "new framework" intended for a period of months, which probably will break down in weeks.
Somebody, somewhere needs to get a grip and give the scientists a new brief. One that actively takes into account what is economically and politically feasible to deliver. If that happens, who knows maybe we will be able to try out a wider range of policy solutions (be it utilising "rapid testing", more local control, more targeting of individual businesses rather than business sectors or whatever).
In fact, how about piloting a few different things in different areas to actually generate some data on what might work and what doesn't?
Yesterday the Prime Minister stood up and announced new measures which will cripple (again) large areas of the economy. And then the Chief Medical Officer stood up and said he didn't think they would 'work' (although it's unclear what "work" means as we don't appear to have a stated end goal).
Frankly, to the extent that we have a choice between protecting the economy and protecting health (yes i know it's not that simple) then if you're going to go for the latter, at least do something that will be effective!!!
This is unnecessary scare mongering. For one, it is only one of many potential vaccines, and secondly it is perfectly normal in any study to get adverse reactions in candidates. This is the purpose of the trial to test efficacy and safety. It would be unusual if a trail did not have any adverse events, unless of course, it takes place in China, Russia or North Korea!
Scaremongering is a bit strong, but I’d agree the headline is somewhat hyperbolic. Especially as it’s entirely possible the adverse event is in the placebo group.
Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.
“This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”
What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideals l
Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, reacted with fury to blanket tier 2 restrictions in his region – banning households from mixing indoors but subjecting outdoor meetings to the rule of six – and suggested he was blindsided by the decision.
“This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”
What does he expect? A say? He needs to speak to HYUFD to be put back in his place.
It’s that Bozo simply can’t do the politics. He leaves everyone thinking that he has agreed with them, then when he acts it isn’t what anyone was expecting.
It must really hurt that someone who 'can't do politics' won the biggest majority since Blair. I'm not pretending remotely he is the ideal leader for now but the level of criticism from the 'chatterers' is a contant source of amusement.
Johnson is a first class campaigner. So from that point of view he is very good at this element of politics.
Johnson is poor at making consistent political decisions, therefore he not very good at this element of politics.
I suspect therefore, it all hinges on one's definition of politics. If campaigning is one's priority you are right, Johnson is a political master.
I don't disagree with that. I do think though that judgement of Johnson is distorted by a level of sour grapes which ignores the extraordinarily difficult circumstances of this crisis. He is far from perfect but I am unconvinced that any other PM right now would be being lauded on all sides either.
I have an innate dislike of Johnson so I am not impartial. However, I am trying to be just that. There is no point me suggesting Blair would have handled othe pandemic better as I clearly have a dog in that race.
I didn't like Mrs May either, but I can't help feeling that she would have followed the science, and communicated the message better. She would have been more determined and forthright with what she believed to be right. She may well make the wrong decision but she wouldn't have been too scared to try.
I don't disagree with that. I do think though that judgement of Johnson is distorted by a level of sour grapes which ignores the extraordinarily difficult circumstances of this crisis. He is far from perfect but I am unconvinced that any other PM right now would be being lauded on all sides either.
No
BoZo has made a number of explicit moves that made the crisis worse that other leaders would not have made (probably)
Expelling all the talent. Hiring Dom. Not firing Dom.
BoZo is uniquely awful, and Tories know it
It could be worse. Johnson is not Trump, although that bar is so low that it's buried under the ground.
It's a meeting with people who don't live with you, for purely social reasons.
There are some exceptions, so for example my brother and his wife form a 'bubble' with her mother who lives alone, which means that they can see each other but no-one else.
That’s fine in a home, but in a pub? I can be sat at the same table as someone, someone I may not even know, but have no social contact with them. A gathering?
I sit at an adjacent table to somebody (who I may or may not know) and engage the in conversation. A gathering?
I know this seems like nitpicking but when we we discussing the “Tier 2” type regulations the other day, people covered by them said that they were universally being turned a blind eye to. Don’t ask don’t tell. It is obvious that doing this is the only way for pubs and restaurants to be remotely viable in Tier 2 restricted areas.
However if you are going to go down the “blind eye” route, it is quite useful to actually know whether you are in danger of actually being prosecuted.
What if pubs put in loads of small tables for example?
Pubs are IMO easy to understand.
Tables should be socially distanced (1.5m apart indoors), and you should only be on a table with your own 'gathering' - this is either your group of six, or your own household according to your area's risk zone.
Comments
I think he will moan about the fake news media, how horrible Biden will be and how great America would be after another 4 more years of him, but anything more than that I don't think so.
Key states (% of total vote in 2016):
PA - 6.3%
MI - 19.8%
WI - 22.8%
FL - 17.4%
NC - 10.0%
AZ - 0.2%
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
Updated 538 polling average for Florida now has Biden +4.5%.
Biden now forecast to win Florida by 3.8% (and a 73% chance of winning Florida).
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/florida/
Trump's price has shortened though. Is it because of the rally? Does seem that he can still inspire the cult, but is the cult as big as it once was?
A: micro-economists are wrong about specific things, while macro-economists are wrong about things in general.
I can feel @Sunil_Prasannan getting jealous...
It'll be fine. Sheep do what the Dogs tell them to do.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/10/12/trump-voter-authoritarian-research/
... They found a striking linear relationship between support for Trump and an authoritarian mind-set: The stronger a person supported Trump, the higher he or she scored on the RWA scale. People saying they strongly disapproved of Trump, for instance, had an average RWA score of 54. Those indicating complete support of the president, on the other hand, had an average score of 119, more than twice as authoritarian as Trump opponents.
Many fervent Trump supporters, Altemeyer and Dean write, “are submissive, fearful, and longing for a mighty leader who will protect them from life’s threats. They divide the world into friend and foe, with the latter greatly outnumbering the former.”...
Explains the guns too, perhaps.
There is obviously a mid-point between "banning imports from countries which do not match UK employment and environmental standards" and no standards what so ever.
Everyone is betting the house on this vaccine, and there doesn't seem to be any semblance of a plan B. I can't be the only one starting to think that we're all going to have to consider the 'let it rip' approach at some point? As ghoulish as that sounds i'm struggling to think of what else works. (I say this not as a swivel eyed libertarian, but a left of centre boring type).
General Belgranoevil fishing menace to save the Tory Partyhttps://dangoodspeed.com/covid/total-cases-since-june
The medical knowledge how to treat worst case and middle case COVID patients has improved considerably, that will only get better. Those who do get ill won't be hit so hard.
We will find more ways to do things outside (In this respect Australia has a great head sart) even in the harsh Berlin winter and ways to hold events while being fairly safe. We will have much better science about what activities are fine, and what activities are not.
Eventually herd-immuity-lite will grow so the hot spots wont be so hot.
This is not an "open up the champagne" answer, but a "we will learn how we can live with the disease sensibly".
“This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days. The region was united, cross-party, in supporting the existing restrictions,” he said. “This is something the latest local epidemiology does not support, and I am disappointed that the government is pressing ahead with this despite the united view of local leaders.”
Even the economic situation looks less stark. The IMF forecasts that the economy in the Asia-Pacific region will contract by 0.2% this year, while those in US and Western Europe are expected to sink by 5.9% and 7.3% respectively.
Communication strategies are an underestimated "non-pharmaceutical intervention" which are not only useful in the short term -- by encouraging measures like mask usage -- but have long-term uses as well, says Heidi Tworek, an associate professor of international history and public policy at the University of British Columbia, who authored a report on democratic communications during the pandemic. The report analyzed three democratic jurisdictions in the Asia-Pacific region -- Taiwan, New Zealand, and South Korea -- and found that cohesive messages from those governments were useful in forestalling "compliance fatigue" and laid the foundation for vaccine uptake. "They also matter for cultivating trust among citizens and their governments -- trust that is critical for the future stability of democratic institutions," the report stated.
America's largest roadblock remains its President, who has repeatedly called into question the integrity of the democratic process by undermining the safest way to hand in a ballot in a pandemic: Mail-in voting. As Trump continues to downplay the threat of the virus, another 20,000 Covid-19 deaths are "inevitable" by the end of the month, former director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Tom Frieden, told CNN this weekend. Unlike the Asia-Pacific region, the West appears to be well on its way to a tragic winter.
https://twitter.com/TaylorLorenz/status/1315885899159269377?s=20
It’s one of several confirmed cases around the world - and a useful antidote to the Charlatan in Chief claiming he’s immune.
There are always upsides.
Along with a significant chunk of the media (see Times cartoon above for a good example), they give the impression of wanting to undermine public support for dealing with the virus.
Reinfection is a worry. Yes it is rare at present, but it does seem to point to immunity being shortlived.
What is the legal definition of “a gathering”?
Mr. B2, it's interesting to consider if it's a lack of intelligence, a lack of courage, or both. I'd suggest both. The PM is scared of not being liked and, for all his dipping into Latin, is not intellectually confident enough to stand up for what he believes to be the right course of action.
Inaction and vacillation are also choices, and when that lurches into decisions without consultation or forewarning it's easy to see why people are aggravated by that.
It is an unfortunate coincidence that at the time of the first pandemic in a century we're governed by a cretin.
Is it too early for popcorn?
In seriousness, this failure of people to recognise that many of his voters turned to Trump out of desperation not from adulation is staggering.
It’s the same sort of mindset that calls his voters racist without realising that many of them voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012. What, did they think Obama was a White man?
The New Zealand effect in the heart of the virus in near Madrid.
They know he's a fool and send him on anyway because the public are stupid
They genuinely rate him
And when I say they I do of course mean Lord Dominic of Barnard Castle
Very good post, Mr D. I don't think Johnson's a cretin, though. I think he's narcissistic; really, really wants to be 'loved', and makes decisions on that basis.
He also comes across as extremely selfish.
In circles.
I suspect that there would be at least partial immunity and therefore attenuated disease in most cases, but who really knows yet?
There are some exceptions, so for example my brother and his wife form a 'bubble' with her mother who lives alone, which means that they can see each other but no-one else.
Johnson is poor at making consistent political decisions, therefore he not very good at this element of politics.
I suspect therefore, it all hinges on one's definition of politics. If campaigning is one's priority you are right, Johnson is a political master.
MEDIUM: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1103/pdfs/uksi_20201103_en.pdf
HIGH: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1104/pdfs/uksi_20201104_en.pdf
V HIGH: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1104/pdfs/uksi_20201104_en.pdf
HOSPITALITY OBLIGATIONS (England): https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1008/pdfs/uksi_20201008_en.pdf
GENERAL OBLIGATIONS https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1046/pdfs/uksi_20201046_en.pdf - no singing or dancing!
OTHER RESTRICTIONS: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1046/pdfs/uksi_20201046_en.pdf
CONTACT TRACING: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1005/pdfs/uksi_20201005_en.pdf
There is also a batch of extra regulations regarding face coverings, which are listed but not subject to debate.
Turn the radio on for Today. Within two minutes I am shouting at it. Didn't catch the name but some science advisor seemed to saying unless we have a full national lockdown the virus will double and then double again and then double again ad infinitum until we do lockdown.
Grossly overstepping their role imho.
Yesterday he clearly annoyed the Liverpool Mayor, his own Birmingham Mayor, a lot of the scientists, and a bunch of his own backbenchers.
On Liverpool, where he claimed in parliament that he had the Mayor's support and name-checked him several times, only for this to be denied afterwards, the most credible explanation is that Liverpool did in fact acquiesce to the tighter rules but understanding that they would apply to the whole of the North. No-one went back to explain that, post Burnham, the decision had changed, and they were well miffed to find Liverpool singled out in a way they werent expecting.
Which is bad politics.
Something similar appears to have happened with Street, who seems to have been consulted and thinks he agreed to something different from what was actually decided.
I am often struck by how insular the UK media is and within by how London centric., eg the other day there was the picture of 10pm revellers in Piccadilly as a sign of how the UK was reacting to early closing! Do me a favour. There is no sense of proportion in the criticism, no understanding of the difficult balances to be struck. No understanding that New Zealand is not the UK ffs.
What matters to the country is Johnson's ability to lead. This, he is clearly unsuited to. The Conservatives will have to replace him. The longer he is in post the greater the damage to what remains of the reputation of his party and the country for the longer term. The Conservatives used to have one core purpose; good governance. They have now had two leaders in a row who were not up to the job, and that, regrettably, will eventually seep into the public consciousness.
The election itself should be run by a 'career' civil servant in each area, reporting to a 'career' civil servant in each State, with no politicians involved except to observe.
Anecdotally, I have a relative in Arizona who has had it twice, three months apart, and was tested on both occasions. They certainly don’t appear in the figures.
Does the testing system over here guarantee that cases of reinfection would be flagged up ? I would assume so, but is that correct ?
I sit at an adjacent table to somebody (who I may or may not know) and engage the in conversation. A gathering?
I know this seems like nitpicking but when we we discussing the “Tier 2” type regulations the other day, people covered by them said that they were universally being turned a blind eye to. Don’t ask don’t tell. It is obvious that doing this is the only way for pubs and restaurants to be remotely viable in Tier 2 restricted areas.
However if you are going to go down the “blind eye” route, it is quite useful to actually know whether you are in danger of actually being prosecuted.
What if pubs put in loads of small tables for example?
He is pretty good at communicating, right up until the point when there is something important or moderately complex to explain. If he can’t make a joke of it he gets bored and gives up.
Not the PM we need today.
They don't understand the technical subject matter, all live in Islington, all hate the government for Brexit and think that politics as usual is the way through this - when it clearly isn't. War and Pandemic are not normal situations and require a change of attitude.
Government IMO need to sidestep the mainstream media as much as possible - lots of public information camplaigns on TV, radio and social media, with ministers answering any and all questions by telling people to read the official advice at emergency.gov.uk
Andy Burnham saying he thinks we should have a circuit breaker thereby wanting to close down the whole economy rather than address why his area is in the situation it is. Also as in the previous lockdown who is to guarantee a circuit break will last for 3 weeks and how we would ever get out of it
I believe the present 3 tiers is the best way forward and the rules are more easily understood
In the end there are those who want complete lockdown and others who want the exact opposite, while there are many who just want the government to fail because they are implementing Brexit
I do not envy any leader at present and in all this furore it needs to be noted that a lot of tier 3 requirements were implemented in Scotland by Nicola Sturgeon three weeks ago, and today we have Drakeford threatening to close the Welsh border, yes he really is
As Francis Urquhart said, a good trait to have. In a spaniel. Or a whore. But not a PM.
Edited extra bit: Narcissus was so unconcerned with whether those around him liked him that the pining Echo literally faded away to nothing because he was too busy contemplating his own reflection.
When you cut a long story short, there is a growing trend for governments that can’t handle scrutiny, criticism and simple questions of clarification. They have some bizarre notion that a grateful nation needs to do as it’s told and praise their kindness and wisdom. All despite the obvious that they are out of their depth.
BoZo has made a number of explicit moves that made the crisis worse that other leaders would not have made (probably)
Expelling all the talent.
Hiring Dom.
Not firing Dom.
BoZo is uniquely awful, and Tories know it
I can't see the current Tier system, with current levels of financial support - only available to Tier 3 - lasting very long because of this. Yet another example of the Govt putting in a "new framework" intended for a period of months, which probably will break down in weeks.
Somebody, somewhere needs to get a grip and give the scientists a new brief. One that actively takes into account what is economically and politically feasible to deliver. If that happens, who knows maybe we will be able to try out a wider range of policy solutions (be it utilising "rapid testing", more local control, more targeting of individual businesses rather than business sectors or whatever).
In fact, how about piloting a few different things in different areas to actually generate some data on what might work and what doesn't?
Yesterday the Prime Minister stood up and announced new measures which will cripple (again) large areas of the economy. And then the Chief Medical Officer stood up and said he didn't think they would 'work' (although it's unclear what "work" means as we don't appear to have a stated end goal).
Frankly, to the extent that we have a choice between protecting the economy and protecting health (yes i know it's not that simple) then if you're going to go for the latter, at least do something that will be effective!!!
Especially as it’s entirely possible the adverse event is in the placebo group.
I didn't like Mrs May either, but I can't help feeling that she would have followed the science, and communicated the message better. She would have been more determined and forthright with what she believed to be right. She may well make the wrong decision but she wouldn't have been too scared to try.
Tables should be socially distanced (1.5m apart indoors), and you should only be on a table with your own 'gathering' - this is either your group of six, or your own household according to your area's risk zone.