Biden’s national poll lead remains and the swing state surveys are looking positive – politicalbetti
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If thats the case, why did I reject May's deal?Gallowgate said:
You’re hilariously deluded.Philip_Thompson said:
I imagine we will bring some ultimately, that's how compromises work. But we hold the cards so it should be a deal along the lines of what we have asked for in the end, tweaked to however makes it acceptable to them.Gallowgate said:
What concessions are we bringing?Philip_Thompson said:Interesting that Sky are talking about progress being made in trade talks and Barnier bringing concessions.
Almost as if the UK playing hard ball works. Who could have foreseen that?
Either way if there is a deal you will celebrate it as a brilliant success, even if previously you’d denounced the compromises as a vassal state situation or some other. It’s just what you do.0 -
So? You think they are immune? Sadly several dead doctors, nurses and care workers prove otherwise.No_Offence_Alan said:
The people tested before will largely be health service and care home workers who are tested regularly .DavidL said:
Well, thanks for the explanation but what a weird way to present the statistics. Who cares if people have been tested before? What we want to know is how many have got the virus now. So, assuming the +ve results are not restricted to the new people but all of those tested the real +ve rate is 3.9% of all tests done. Which is bad enough.Alistair said:
IT means of people who've never had a test before 7.6% tested positive. So there were 5000 people newly tested yesterday. But in total 12497 tests were doneDavidL said:
That means that we should have had 975 +ve results on that rate, roughly twice what has been announced. Something a bit odd here but nothing makes these numbers good.Alistair said:
Remember that's newly tested individuals not results of tests.Philip_Thompson said:
UK positivity is around 1.5% so Scottish positivity being 7.8% seems very odd.Alistair said:
It is a trend. Positivity rate has been pushing upwards for a while now.Philip_Thompson said:
That's awful, that's French levels of positive rate. Very worrying.CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/ChrisGreenNews/status/1308727131959169025?s=20
7.8% Positive rate.
Hope its a abberation and not a trend.
Scotland did 12497 tests.0 -
Maybe. But I'm not sure about the compliance with, say, a full lockdown or something similar, in advance of opening schools.FeersumEnjineeya said:
The point I'm trying to make is that it would have been a good idea to minimise transmission via other means before reopening the schools. It might then have been possible to keep R below 1 despite virus transmission through schools. Instead, we have opted for almost certain chaos.TOPPING said:
Thing is, let's say opening schools causes infections to spike, which I think is a reasonable hypothesis.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Reopening the schools was always going to be risky, even though it is essential. If we'd been planning this properly, we'd have shut down all non-essential business and travel (as we did in March) prior to reopening the schools and, only then, begun to gradually reopen businesses while keeping a close eye on the R number.TOPPING said:
First off we don't know the delivery mechanism. Second, sending children back to school brings in all kinds of other people from older siblings to teaching assistants to nannies to you name it.Philip_Thompson said:
Increasing case numbers are coming from young adults not children at the minute.TOPPING said:
The idea that having schools go back would not increase the rate of infection was and is ridiculous. Just look at all the possible permutations - three siblings in different years each with after-school activities with people from other scholls for example and you have the whole of one school open to cross contamination and any number of other schools likewise via the after-school activities.DavidL said:
So Scotland has suddenly accelerated ahead of England from a position when we were doing better than the average, if not quite matching the SW.Philip_Thompson said:
That's awful, that's French levels of positive rate. Very worrying.CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/ChrisGreenNews/status/1308727131959169025?s=20
7.8% Positive rate.
Hope its a abberation and not a trend.
When you think about why, and I really, really hate to say this, by far the most obvious explanation is that our kids went back to school 2-3 weeks earlier than England. Bugger. If we cannot get the R rate under 1 with kids attending school we have an absolute nightmare on our hands.
But Boris says the increasing case rate is our fault.
The whole paraphernalia of getting children back to schools - a policy I happen to agree with - was going to increase the infection rate.
The question is what price are we willing to pay to let it happen.
While this would have meant more financial pain at beginning, it would at least have given some hope for the future and kept the death count down. Instead, we are running a great risk of infections spiralling out of control and needing another prolonged and unplanned total shutdown at even more cost to life and commerce.
That means, simply, that you can't reopen them until there is a vaccine.
As I said earlier, the whole process of opening schools means there will likely be huge virus dissemination.
Before schools opened (Aug/Sep?) society was pretty open.0 -
Nice Freudian typo.MaxPB said:
Unless the confessions are signed off by Berlin then they are worthless so let's see what they actually are. If it's a 5 or 6/10 state aid agreement then I expect we will sign the deal and scrap the internal markets bill.DavidL said:
Don't count your chickens, chlorinated or otherwise, before they hatch Philip.Philip_Thompson said:Interesting that Sky are talking about progress being made in trade talks and Barnier bringing concessions.
Almost as if the UK playing hard ball works. Who could have foreseen that?1 -
Because you didn’t know what was in it? Just like you supported the Withdrawal Agreement without knowing what was in it?Philip_Thompson said:
If thats the case, why did I reject May's deal?Gallowgate said:
You’re hilariously deluded.Philip_Thompson said:
I imagine we will bring some ultimately, that's how compromises work. But we hold the cards so it should be a deal along the lines of what we have asked for in the end, tweaked to however makes it acceptable to them.Gallowgate said:
What concessions are we bringing?Philip_Thompson said:Interesting that Sky are talking about progress being made in trade talks and Barnier bringing concessions.
Almost as if the UK playing hard ball works. Who could have foreseen that?
Either way if there is a deal you will celebrate it as a brilliant success, even if previously you’d denounced the compromises as a vassal state situation or some other. It’s just what you do.0 -
@TheScreamingEaglesAlistair said:
Yes.TheScreamingEagles said:
Does it break it down by party affiliation?Alistair said:Blimey on the ABC Arizona poll 77% are planning to vote by mail.
I actualyl misread, the early voting figures are
49% Vote Early By Mail
Split
69% Dem Vote Early By Mail
44% GOP Vote Early By Mail
42% Independents Vote Early By Mail
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I did and I opposed it for my principles. If I was just a Conservative hack then I would have backed that agreement, but I have my own free thoughts.Gallowgate said:
Because you didn’t know what was in it? Just like you supported the Withdrawal Agreement without knowing what was in it?Philip_Thompson said:
If thats the case, why did I reject May's deal?Gallowgate said:
You’re hilariously deluded.Philip_Thompson said:
I imagine we will bring some ultimately, that's how compromises work. But we hold the cards so it should be a deal along the lines of what we have asked for in the end, tweaked to however makes it acceptable to them.Gallowgate said:
What concessions are we bringing?Philip_Thompson said:Interesting that Sky are talking about progress being made in trade talks and Barnier bringing concessions.
Almost as if the UK playing hard ball works. Who could have foreseen that?
Either way if there is a deal you will celebrate it as a brilliant success, even if previously you’d denounced the compromises as a vassal state situation or some other. It’s just what you do.1 -
Indeed, though I cannot imagine having Prince Harry, descendant of King George III and his Hollywood actress wife speaking from the garden of their $15 million mansion in California and telling the oiks in the rustbelt they better vote for Biden- Harris will exactly have been greatly welcomed by the Biden camp, in fact I suspect the Trump campaign will not be bothered about it at all.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
I don't know whether Obama's intervention helped or hindered the Remain campaign, or whether it had no impact. Plainly it didn't work, and the overall "Project Fear" messaging of which it was part was a bad strategy. But I do wonder if the idea it actively harmed the Remain campaign is actually correct.MaxPB said:
Obama was superficially popular too when he made those back of the queue comments. It's one thing for British people to say the country is shite and we hate it here, but very different for an outsider to do say the UK is shite and they hate it. It makes everyone instinctively defensive and dismissive of what that person is saying regardless of whether it's true or not.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Is Prince Harry unpopular in the USA or does is the general impression of him a man who served in the military, married a well-liked American TV star, and was driven out by the stuffy Brits?MaxPB said:
Honestly, this is exactly the kind of shit Trump lives for. A British establishment figure that no one really likes any more chatting shit about the US election. This is exactly like Obama telling the UK about being at the back of the queue etc... It's just completely counterproductive.williamglenn said:Prince Harry is volunteering for some invective from Trump.
https://twitter.com/hannah_furness/status/1308709361599078401?s=21
That's a genuine question - I don't know, but am concerned your view may reflect a UK-centric position (personally, I incline to something like the view I outline above but acknowledge that he's had awful press in the UK and mine is a minority view here).
Luckily Americans won't be paying attention to this from Harry and hopefully Trump won't signal boost it. A proper royal would stay out and keep their views to themselves. I'm really hoping team Biden don't signal boost this stuff, it's exactly the kind of endorsement Hillary would have used as an introduction to her at a major event.
As I've also noted, I am not sure whether Prince Harry's intention is actually to help the Biden campaign anyway (although doubtless Meghan is going to vote Biden). They have a series of Netflix programmes in the pipeline, and it isn't the worst thing for him to be in the headlines in the US, regardless of any bearing on the campaign (which I suspect will be minimal either way).
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The ABC poll has move the market by about 0.050
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Reinfection is an interesting and important issue, but let's not hype it up with "new at risk group" language. 11 documented cases from 32 million confirmed worldwide infections simply doesn't merit that.Roland said:11 documented cases of reinfection. Average interval between infections 64 days. 4 cases symptoms worse second time around, 2 improved, 3 stayed the same, 2 undocumented.
More data needed, but it's possible we have a new at risk group, namely those who have already been infected once.
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/08/covid-19-reinfection-tracker/1 -
Though of course the polling shows Biden doing better than Clinton with HS or less voters anyway while Trump is doing better with the richest voters and Cuban AmericansAlistair said:So the one thing I would say about the ABC polls is like many pollsters they have completely reweighted hwo they are doing education.
But, in a world's first, they may be over egging the HS or less.
In 2016 the CNN Florida (which as far as I can tell was broadly accurate with Cliton's under by 1 and Trump's score bang on) exit poll had 18% HS or less voter.
The ABC poll has weighted it to 34% HS or less.0 -
Some arresting numbers in that report, egRichard_Nabavi said:
Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:- In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
- In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
- In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
- In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.0 - In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
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No you just parroted what Boris and the like said, which ended up being total rubbish.Philip_Thompson said:
I did and I opposed it for my principles. If I was just a Conservative hack then I would have backed that agreement, but I have my own free thoughts.Gallowgate said:
Because you didn’t know what was in it? Just like you supported the Withdrawal Agreement without knowing what was in it?Philip_Thompson said:
If thats the case, why did I reject May's deal?Gallowgate said:
You’re hilariously deluded.Philip_Thompson said:
I imagine we will bring some ultimately, that's how compromises work. But we hold the cards so it should be a deal along the lines of what we have asked for in the end, tweaked to however makes it acceptable to them.Gallowgate said:
What concessions are we bringing?Philip_Thompson said:Interesting that Sky are talking about progress being made in trade talks and Barnier bringing concessions.
Almost as if the UK playing hard ball works. Who could have foreseen that?
Either way if there is a deal you will celebrate it as a brilliant success, even if previously you’d denounced the compromises as a vassal state situation or some other. It’s just what you do.
Just like you told us for many months how Boris’s WA meant no border in the Irish Sea and then as soon as the government oppose it for exactly that reason, you suddenly don’t support it anymore.
You never understood what the deal was. Principles and free thoughts has nothing to do with it.1 -
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The weighting change to capture more high school or less voters than in 2016 still means polls are less weighted against Trump (or more weighted for Trump if you prefer) than four years ago.HYUFD said:
Though of course the polling shows Biden doing better than Clinton with HS or less voters anyway while Trump is doing better with the richest voters and Cuban AmericansAlistair said:So the one thing I would say about the ABC polls is like many pollsters they have completely reweighted hwo they are doing education.
But, in a world's first, they may be over egging the HS or less.
In 2016 the CNN Florida (which as far as I can tell was broadly accurate with Cliton's under by 1 and Trump's score bang on) exit poll had 18% HS or less voter.
The ABC poll has weighted it to 34% HS or less.
If you increase the weight on group X, that favours the person who polls well in group X. That the person used to do even better in group X is nice to know but doesn't alter the fundamental, mathematical point.0 -
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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/23/health/covid-19-vaccine-johnson-and-johnson.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimesHYUFD said:
Cliffnotes,
They are just about to start a Phase 3 trial.
The trial started on Monday. At a news conference on Tuesday, Dr. Paul Stoffels, chief scientific officer of Johnson & Johnson, said the company might be able to determine by the end of the year if the vaccine is safe and effective.0 -
This is fundamentally the problem with the state polls - how much can you trust them? Looking at the 3 most recent polls for Arizona, for example, you have ABC - Trump+1; Siena Biden +9; YouGov Biden+3. That doesn't particularly build confidence. The interesting thing is that all 3 polls have similar figures for Biden but differ in the Trump figures, ranging from 40% Trump for Siena to 49% for ABCHYUFD said:
Though of course the polling shows Biden doing better than Clinton with HS or less voters anyway while Trump is doing better with the richest voters and Cuban AmericansAlistair said:So the one thing I would say about the ABC polls is like many pollsters they have completely reweighted hwo they are doing education.
But, in a world's first, they may be over egging the HS or less.
In 2016 the CNN Florida (which as far as I can tell was broadly accurate with Cliton's under by 1 and Trump's score bang on) exit poll had 18% HS or less voter.
The ABC poll has weighted it to 34% HS or less.
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Does this refer to Boris and Stanley, or Boris and Jo?HYUFD said:1 -
Scott_xP said: So is that why they are building lorry parks in the Midlands and the North? Good grief. 0
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It's a good point. It seems that the "mission" is to keep Covid hospitalizations down well within NHS capacity until a vaccine is available next year. Restrictions of a greater or lesser amount to enforce distancing in place for at least the next six months to achieve this objective. Schools kept open to be the top priority. That's where I reckon we are but there hasn't really been a clear communication of this and perhaps there ought to be.rottenborough said:
"What’s really missing, of course... is a clear statement of what the new national mission is so that we can debate it. Is this about keeping deaths down to a certain level? Is it about keeping hospitalisations within the health system’s capacity? What are the long-term economic and health costs of our approach?"TOPPING said:
First off we don't know the delivery mechanism. Second, sending children back to school brings in all kinds of other people from older siblings to teaching assistants to nannies to you name it.Philip_Thompson said:
Increasing case numbers are coming from young adults not children at the minute.TOPPING said:
The idea that having schools go back would not increase the rate of infection was and is ridiculous. Just look at all the possible permutations - three siblings in different years each with after-school activities with people from other scholls for example and you have the whole of one school open to cross contamination and any number of other schools likewise via the after-school activities.DavidL said:
So Scotland has suddenly accelerated ahead of England from a position when we were doing better than the average, if not quite matching the SW.Philip_Thompson said:
That's awful, that's French levels of positive rate. Very worrying.CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/ChrisGreenNews/status/1308727131959169025?s=20
7.8% Positive rate.
Hope its a abberation and not a trend.
When you think about why, and I really, really hate to say this, by far the most obvious explanation is that our kids went back to school 2-3 weeks earlier than England. Bugger. If we cannot get the R rate under 1 with kids attending school we have an absolute nightmare on our hands.
But Boris says the increasing case rate is our fault.
The whole paraphernalia of getting children back to schools - a policy I happen to agree with - was going to increase the infection rate.
The question is what price are we willing to pay to let it happen.
Telegraph0 -
Agreed - though you do have to wonder how many cases might not have been documented. And whether the two month period for susceptibility to reinfection is the extreme end of a normal distribution.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Reinfection is an interesting and important issue, but let's not hype it up with "new at risk group" language. 11 documented cases from 32 million confirmed worldwide infections simply doesn't merit that.Roland said:11 documented cases of reinfection. Average interval between infections 64 days. 4 cases symptoms worse second time around, 2 improved, 3 stayed the same, 2 undocumented.
More data needed, but it's possible we have a new at risk group, namely those who have already been infected once.
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/08/covid-19-reinfection-tracker/
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What, so anybody driving a lorry from Orpington to Sevenoaks needs a "Kent Axis Permit"? That's what the tweet implies, but I can't believe it.Scott_xP said:0 -
On an Asda conference. Within the first minute he's confirmed that they are running out of bog rolls and pasta due to the panic buying going on0
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Huh? I was just providing context.as to who this group might be. I agree 3.9% would have been a clearer figure.DavidL said:
So? You think they are immune? Sadly several dead doctors, nurses and care workers prove otherwise.No_Offence_Alan said:
The people tested before will largely be health service and care home workers who are tested regularly .DavidL said:
Well, thanks for the explanation but what a weird way to present the statistics. Who cares if people have been tested before? What we want to know is how many have got the virus now. So, assuming the +ve results are not restricted to the new people but all of those tested the real +ve rate is 3.9% of all tests done. Which is bad enough.Alistair said:
IT means of people who've never had a test before 7.6% tested positive. So there were 5000 people newly tested yesterday. But in total 12497 tests were doneDavidL said:
That means that we should have had 975 +ve results on that rate, roughly twice what has been announced. Something a bit odd here but nothing makes these numbers good.Alistair said:
Remember that's newly tested individuals not results of tests.Philip_Thompson said:
UK positivity is around 1.5% so Scottish positivity being 7.8% seems very odd.Alistair said:
It is a trend. Positivity rate has been pushing upwards for a while now.Philip_Thompson said:
That's awful, that's French levels of positive rate. Very worrying.CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/ChrisGreenNews/status/1308727131959169025?s=20
7.8% Positive rate.
Hope its a abberation and not a trend.
Scotland did 12497 tests.0 -
If the EU don't want a trade deal enough then we can have plenty of very good British cheeses that can substitute for European ones if they want a trade war.FF43 said:
Some arresting numbers in that report, egRichard_Nabavi said:
Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:- In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
- In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
- In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
- In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.
Considering they have a trade surplus with us though I doubt it, they will concede to our superior cards and give us a deal.0 - In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
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Looks like I'll be moving over from English Cheddar to Irish Cheddar then, both of which are available in (the better) German supermarkets. How many other citizens of EU countries will be making similar choices to buy less UK products?FF43 said:
Some arresting numbers in that report, egRichard_Nabavi said:
Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:- In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
- In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
- In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
- In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.1 - In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
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And complicating it will be significant shifts within particular groups since the last election. The shape of Biden’s support is likely quite different to Clinton’s, so that the corrections made for pollsters’ mistakes last time might be just as wrong (in either direction) this time around.GarethoftheVale2 said:
This is fundamentally the problem with the state polls - how much can you trust them? Looking at the 3 most recent polls for Arizona, for example, you have ABC - Trump+1; Siena Biden +9; YouGov Biden+3. That doesn't particularly build confidence. The interesting thing is that all 3 polls have similar figures for Biden but differ in the Trump figures, ranging from 40% Trump for Siena to 49% for ABCHYUFD said:
Though of course the polling shows Biden doing better than Clinton with HS or less voters anyway while Trump is doing better with the richest voters and Cuban AmericansAlistair said:So the one thing I would say about the ABC polls is like many pollsters they have completely reweighted hwo they are doing education.
But, in a world's first, they may be over egging the HS or less.
In 2016 the CNN Florida (which as far as I can tell was broadly accurate with Cliton's under by 1 and Trump's score bang on) exit poll had 18% HS or less voter.
The ABC poll has weighted it to 34% HS or less.1 -
Harbingers of the storm.RochdalePioneers said:On an Asda conference. Within the first minute he's confirmed that they are running out of bog rolls and pasta due to the panic buying going on
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Should we not read between the lines on this and drop the hyperbole? There will be a deal accompanied by a 12-month extension of the implementation period. The rest is noise.Philip_Thompson said:
If the EU don't want a trade deal enough then we can have plenty of very good British cheeses that can substitute for European ones if they want a trade war.FF43 said:
Some arresting numbers in that report, egRichard_Nabavi said:
Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:- In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
- In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
- In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
- In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.
Considering they have a trade surplus with us though I doubt it, they will concede to our superior cards and give us a deal.0 - In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
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It isn't a case of whether the EU wants a trade deal with those numbers. It's a case of whether the UK wants trade.Philip_Thompson said:
If the EU don't want a trade deal enough then we can have plenty of very good British cheeses that can substitute for European ones if they want a trade war.FF43 said:
Some arresting numbers in that report, egRichard_Nabavi said:
Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:- In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
- In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
- In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
- In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.
Considering they have a trade surplus with us though I doubt it, they will concede to our superior cards and give us a deal.
(And jobs. And also whether UK consumers are happy paying a LOT more for stuff, not just from the EU).0 - In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
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And I suspect that 24% are deluding themselves.Scott_xP said:0 -
The thing is that, if parispolitques.fr existed, it would be very easy to imagine a poster called Phillipe saying exactly the same things- we (in his case, the EU) have to stand firm so we get broadly what we want because we hold the cards in the negotiations.Philip_Thompson said:
I imagine we will bring some ultimately, that's how compromises work. But we hold the cards so it should be a deal along the lines of what we have asked for in the end, tweaked to however makes it acceptable to them.Gallowgate said:
What concessions are we bringing?Philip_Thompson said:Interesting that Sky are talking about progress being made in trade talks and Barnier bringing concessions.
Almost as if the UK playing hard ball works. Who could have foreseen that?
And whilst some things can be fudged, not everything can be. And if we're talking about no deal prep, the other side of the Channel seem a lot more confident that they've done enough.
Philip and Phillipe can't both be right.0 -
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Ta.Alistair said:
@TheScreamingEaglesAlistair said:
Yes.TheScreamingEagles said:
Does it break it down by party affiliation?Alistair said:Blimey on the ABC Arizona poll 77% are planning to vote by mail.
I actualyl misread, the early voting figures are
49% Vote Early By Mail
Split
69% Dem Vote Early By Mail
44% GOP Vote Early By Mail
42% Independents Vote Early By Mail0 -
With all this talk of imminent trade wars with the EU we've sure come along way from Liam's 'easiest trade deal in history'.Philip_Thompson said:
If the EU don't want a trade deal enough then we can have plenty of very good British cheeses that can substitute for European ones if they want a trade war.FF43 said:
Some arresting numbers in that report, egRichard_Nabavi said:
Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:- In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
- In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
- In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
- In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.
Considering they have a trade surplus with us though I doubt it, they will concede to our superior cards and give us a deal.0 - In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
-
The UK wants trade, just not at any price. The UK is offering a trade deal with standard pro forma trade terms.FF43 said:
It isn't a case of whether the EU wants a trade deal with those numbers. It's a case of whether the UK wants trade.Philip_Thompson said:
If the EU don't want a trade deal enough then we can have plenty of very good British cheeses that can substitute for European ones if they want a trade war.FF43 said:
Some arresting numbers in that report, egRichard_Nabavi said:
Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:- In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
- In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
- In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
- In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.
Considering they have a trade surplus with us though I doubt it, they will concede to our superior cards and give us a deal.
(And jobs. And also whether UK consumers are happy paying a LOT more for stuff, not just from the EU).
It is up to the EU if they want to accept that or if they want to insist upon dynamic alignment which will lead to No Deal being inevitable.1 - In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
-
Some excellent state polling for Biden from Change Research today
WI
SEP 18-20, 2020
C-
Change Research
571 LV Biden
51%
42%
Trump Biden +9
PA
SEP 18-20, 2020
C-
Change Research
579 LV Biden
49%
45%
Trump Biden +4
President: general election
NC
SEP 18-20, 2020
C-
Change Research
579 LV Biden
48%
46%
Trump Biden +2
President: general election
MI
SEP 18-20, 2020
C-
Change Research
568 LV Biden
51%
43%
Trump Biden +8
President: general election
FL
SEP 18-20, 2020
C-
Change Research
702 LV Biden
49%
46%
Trump Biden +3
President: general election
AZ
SEP 18-20, 2020
C-
Change Research
262 LV Biden
49%
43%
Trump Biden +61 -
Philip have you checked if you have one of those computers which emits brain-rotting gamma rays?Philip_Thompson said:
If the EU don't want a trade deal enough then we can have plenty of very good British cheeses that can substitute for European ones if they want a trade war.FF43 said:
Some arresting numbers in that report, egRichard_Nabavi said:
Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:- In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
- In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
- In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
- In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.
Considering they have a trade surplus with us though I doubt it, they will concede to our superior cards and give us a deal.
Because goddamn everything you type suggests you have.
What about good old British Pouilly Fuisse?0 - In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
-
VP, Edible Grocery "we're only a few days in, but this is the exact same pattern of panic buying we saw last time"FeersumEnjineeya said:
Harbingers of the storm.RochdalePioneers said:On an Asda conference. Within the first minute he's confirmed that they are running out of bog rolls and pasta due to the panic buying going on
0 -
Its impossible to implement because the KAP will be generated by the Goods Vehicle Movement Service which (a) doesn't exist and (b) almost certainly won't work out of the box and (c) won't have been implemented into the haulier's systems because of points (a) and (b)Scott_xP said:0 -
What will Phillipe say when BoZo inevitably folds?Stuartinromford said:Philip and Phillipe can't both be right.
0 -
-
Polls with Biden having a near 10 point lead in Arizona is released, markets stay silent.
Poll gives Trump a 1 point lead Biden's price slumps instantly.
This is not a rational market.1 -
voyez, nous avons tenu toutes les grandes cartesScott_xP said:
What will Phillipe say when BoZo inevitably folds?Stuartinromford said:Philip and Phillipe can't both be right.
3 -
That it’s a great deal, far better than that evil May woman’s deal.Scott_xP said:
What will Phillipe say when BoZo inevitably folds?Stuartinromford said:Philip and Phillipe can't both be right.
0 -
-
Two of clubs is also a card.Philip_Thompson said:
Why not? Being able to walk away is a card.Gallowgate said:
Being willing to walk away is not the same as holding all the cards though.Philip_Thompson said:
We do indeed. We can walk away and make a clean break quite confidently.Gallowgate said:
We hold all the cards.Philip_Thompson said:
Considering the EU has a trade surplus with us it would be in their interests to start taking the trade talks seriously and give a clean, simple, Canada style trade deal then wouldn't it?Richard_Nabavi said:
But it takes two to tango, if they don't want to, we can't make them, so no deal it can be.1 -
I'm not a big fan of French wines, I much prefer New World wines to Old World ones. For a long time Australian Shiraz, but become a fan recently of Argentinian Malbecs.TOPPING said:
Philip have you checked if you have one of those computers which emits brain-rotting gamma rays?Philip_Thompson said:
If the EU don't want a trade deal enough then we can have plenty of very good British cheeses that can substitute for European ones if they want a trade war.FF43 said:
Some arresting numbers in that report, egRichard_Nabavi said:
Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:- In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
- In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
- In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
- In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.
Considering they have a trade surplus with us though I doubt it, they will concede to our superior cards and give us a deal.
Because goddamn everything you type suggests you have.
What about good old British Pouilly Fuisse?0 - In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
-
That the move has been pre-planned for several years and constitutes a brilliant triumph.Scott_xP said:
What will Phillipe say when BoZo inevitably folds?Stuartinromford said:Philip and Phillipe can't both be right.
1 -
-
Not to mention New Year’s Eve, when punters finish their meal by 10pm and then have nothing else to do but stand around buying more drinks until the awaited hour.Cyclefree said:
Yes. Drinkers standing at a bar bring in a lot of profit. Add to that:-Nigelb said:
I've seen estimates that early closing will cost pubs around half their trade. Does that sound right ?IanB2 said:
My brother's is the same. And the late drinkers bring in a lot of profit, at the cost of some very late nights for him.Cyclefree said:My daughter’s place has a licence until 2 am. And yes people do stay that late. It’s a sociable place the only place for the 4 villages it serves where people can meet - for a chat, quiz nights, announcing the winner of the leek-growing competition, meetings of the local historical and other societies, the village hall meetings, music events etc etc.
There are four distinct groups who go there in an evening: the early drinkers, those who go there for a meal and a drink, the 2-3 post-meal pints and the late-nighters. The effect of shutting at 10 will be either to lose the trade from the last group or they will come earlier and the pub will need to prioritise between them using a table or eaters, unless it is still warm enough to sit outside. What it won’t do is stop that drinking because the likelihood will be that they will drink at home. And good luck to anyone trying to police whether they’re in a group of 6 or not. So the effect on virus spreading is likely to be marginal.
The effect on the hospitality sector is not going to be marginal, however, especially on top of all the other lost trade.
If Sunak does not come up with a support package, the hospitality sector will be crucified long before the 6 months is up.
1. The loss of events of all kinds;
2. No Xmas parties or other Xmas events.
3. The loss of most of the spring / summer season - look at all the Bank Holidays & days like Mother’s Day lost between March - July this year;
4. The likely loss of the start of the next spring season from the spring half-term holidays onwards, especially if the restrictions last 6 months or longer as Hancock was intimating.
5. No more furlough help.
Hospitality is facing 3 winters in a row. It cannot survive this without help. The costs of doing so need to be set against the costs of unemployment - its consequential costs on landlords, banks, other businesses, councils, business closures and its consequences - loss of VAT, alcohol duty, tax, NI - and welfare costs, quite apart from the human costs.1 -
In the hierarchy of new Brexit borders, is the Kent border better or the Irish Sea border better?Scott_xP said:0 -
No, not a gamechanger. I wonder who would be the celebrity endorsement for Biden that might bring the Rustbelt firmly into his column. Hard to think of one. It would have to be somebody with massive blue collar appeal who is usually apolitical, and if anything has more of a conservative than a liberal vibe to them. And actually, just typing that, there is someone very obvious that springs to mind - Dolly Parton.HYUFD said:
Indeed, though I cannot imagine having Prince Harry, descendant of King George III and his Hollywood actress wife speaking from the garden of their $15 million mansion in California and telling the oiks in the rustbelt they better vote for Biden- Harris will exactly have been greatly welcomed by the Biden camp, in fact I suspect the Trump campaign will not be bothered about it at all.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
I don't know whether Obama's intervention helped or hindered the Remain campaign, or whether it had no impact. Plainly it didn't work, and the overall "Project Fear" messaging of which it was part was a bad strategy. But I do wonder if the idea it actively harmed the Remain campaign is actually correct.MaxPB said:
Obama was superficially popular too when he made those back of the queue comments. It's one thing for British people to say the country is shite and we hate it here, but very different for an outsider to do say the UK is shite and they hate it. It makes everyone instinctively defensive and dismissive of what that person is saying regardless of whether it's true or not.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Is Prince Harry unpopular in the USA or does is the general impression of him a man who served in the military, married a well-liked American TV star, and was driven out by the stuffy Brits?MaxPB said:
Honestly, this is exactly the kind of shit Trump lives for. A British establishment figure that no one really likes any more chatting shit about the US election. This is exactly like Obama telling the UK about being at the back of the queue etc... It's just completely counterproductive.williamglenn said:Prince Harry is volunteering for some invective from Trump.
https://twitter.com/hannah_furness/status/1308709361599078401?s=21
That's a genuine question - I don't know, but am concerned your view may reflect a UK-centric position (personally, I incline to something like the view I outline above but acknowledge that he's had awful press in the UK and mine is a minority view here).
Luckily Americans won't be paying attention to this from Harry and hopefully Trump won't signal boost it. A proper royal would stay out and keep their views to themselves. I'm really hoping team Biden don't signal boost this stuff, it's exactly the kind of endorsement Hillary would have used as an introduction to her at a major event.
As I've also noted, I am not sure whether Prince Harry's intention is actually to help the Biden campaign anyway (although doubtless Meghan is going to vote Biden). They have a series of Netflix programmes in the pipeline, and it isn't the worst thing for him to be in the headlines in the US, regardless of any bearing on the campaign (which I suspect will be minimal either way).2 -
Can they deny Farage a passport to get out?Scott_xP said:2 -
This exactly what Kent voted for in 2016.Richard_Nabavi said:5 -
Somewhat serious question. How do the border guards at Sevenoaks tell which lorry is attempting an illegal dash across the Channel and which one is just delivering crates of milk to the local Sainsburys?0
-
Yes, but the main aim was to keep people from Essex out.TheScreamingEagles said:
This exactly what Kent voted for in 2016.Richard_Nabavi said:1 -
Presumably the ones delivering to Sainsburys would need to sign up for a pass too?FF43 said:Somewhat serious question. How do the border guards at Sevenoaks tell which lorry is attempting an illegal dash across the Channel and which one is just delivering crates of milk to the local Sainsburys?
If I drive through the Kingsway Tunnel then vehicles sign up for a pass to do that. Same at many other tunnels and bridges across the country. So its hardly unprecedented.0 -
They track and trace them.FF43 said:Somewhat serious question. How do the border guards at Sevenoaks tell which lorry is attempting an illegal dash across the Channel and which one is just delivering crates of milk to the local Sainsburys?
1 -
I’d rather we didn’t let him back in again.williamglenn said:
Can they deny Farage a passport to get out?Scott_xP said:0 -
Local Sainsbury's so far unaffected. Brought planned fortnightly shop forward from Saturday but no shortages, no queues. They even had a special deal on toilet roll. Didn't engage in any significant panic buying, beyond an extra tube of toothpaste and a bag of bulgur wheat, which was absent from the shelves for about four months for some reason last time around. Plus filled up the car and took out some cash. Total house toilet roll inventory around 15 should be OK for now.RochdalePioneers said:On an Asda conference. Within the first minute he's confirmed that they are running out of bog rolls and pasta due to the panic buying going on
0 -
-
At this rate the citizens of Kent will need to found a First United Kent Unionist Party.2
-
Actually I think having to get a pass to drive on the open road from one English county to another is actually pretty fucking unprecedented. The whole of Kent and SE London is going to be a disaster zone. Jesus wept, is there no end to this Brexit lunacy?Philip_Thompson said:
Presumably the ones delivering to Sainsburys would need to sign up for a pass too?FF43 said:Somewhat serious question. How do the border guards at Sevenoaks tell which lorry is attempting an illegal dash across the Channel and which one is just delivering crates of milk to the local Sainsburys?
If I drive through the Kingsway Tunnel then vehicles sign up for a pass to do that. Same at many other tunnels and bridges across the country. So its hardly unprecedented.0 -
-
Every time they do a 30 minute journey into Kent they have register with this complex system (which doesn't exist, but let's keep it theoretical), to say they are not exporting anything to France?Alistair said:
I presume they will have had to pre register.FF43 said:Somewhat serious question. How do the border guards at Sevenoaks tell which lorry is attempting an illegal dash across the Channel and which one is just delivering crates of milk to the local Sainsburys?
0 -
-
More likely to keep out people from London, being born in Kent and living in Essex both counties have a similar sociodemographic, not as well off as most of the Home Counties and closer to the national average, went to Blair in 1997 in many seats but have been Tory since he went except Canterbury and both pro BrexitPeter_the_Punter said:
Yes, but the main aim was to keep people from Essex out.TheScreamingEagles said:
This exactly what Kent voted for in 2016.Richard_Nabavi said:0 -
Amazing. Even the most fervidly pessimistic Remainer would have baulked at including the prospect of a hard border around Kent in the Project Fear manual.2
-
The poll average had Hillary ahead in 2016, it was the poll exceptions that were right in the key statesAlistair said:Polls with Biden having a near 10 point lead in Arizona is released, markets stay silent.
Poll gives Trump a 1 point lead Biden's price slumps instantly.
This is not a rational market.0 -
Given the sheer breadth of product emanating from France, saying "I'm not a big fan of French wines" is almost as ludicrous as saying "I'm not a big fan of Asian cereals".Philip_Thompson said:
I'm not a big fan of French wines, I much prefer New World wines to Old World ones. For a long time Australian Shiraz, but become a fan recently of Argentinian Malbecs.TOPPING said:
Philip have you checked if you have one of those computers which emits brain-rotting gamma rays?Philip_Thompson said:
If the EU don't want a trade deal enough then we can have plenty of very good British cheeses that can substitute for European ones if they want a trade war.FF43 said:
Some arresting numbers in that report, egRichard_Nabavi said:
Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:- In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
- In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
- In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
- In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.
Considering they have a trade surplus with us though I doubt it, they will concede to our superior cards and give us a deal.
Because goddamn everything you type suggests you have.
What about good old British Pouilly Fuisse?
0 - In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
-
A trade surplus means that we buy more from them than they buy from us.Philip_Thompson said:
If the EU don't want a trade deal enough then we can have plenty of very good British cheeses that can substitute for European ones if they want a trade war.FF43 said:
Some arresting numbers in that report, egRichard_Nabavi said:
Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:- In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
- In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
- In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
- In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.
Considering they have a trade surplus with us though I doubt it, they will concede to our superior cards and give us a deal.
And this gives us the superior cards?0 - In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
-
They don't sign up for a pass for the kingsway tunnel, they pay a toll. Desperate argument.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Actually I think having to get a pass to drive on the open road from one English county to another is actually pretty fucking unprecedented. The whole of Kent and SE London is going to be a disaster zone. Jesus wept, is there no end to this Brexit lunacy?Philip_Thompson said:
Presumably the ones delivering to Sainsburys would need to sign up for a pass too?FF43 said:Somewhat serious question. How do the border guards at Sevenoaks tell which lorry is attempting an illegal dash across the Channel and which one is just delivering crates of milk to the local Sainsburys?
If I drive through the Kingsway Tunnel then vehicles sign up for a pass to do that. Same at many other tunnels and bridges across the country. So its hardly unprecedented.0 -
As a resident of East Kent who will, in four months may well be unable to drive to my nearest Sainsburys (Bybrook, Ashford in case you're interested) because it will involve crossing the M20 at Junction 9, can any of the Brexiters on here give me something about the end of transition to look forward to? I already have my blue passport.Scott_xP said:1 -
If the people in Kent start revolting the government should tell them it would be much worse if we didn't hold all the cards.0
-
Four years after the vote and suddenly we discover goods need a permit to enter Kent? Did no one think of this before?Philip_Thompson said:
Presumably the ones delivering to Sainsburys would need to sign up for a pass too?FF43 said:Somewhat serious question. How do the border guards at Sevenoaks tell which lorry is attempting an illegal dash across the Channel and which one is just delivering crates of milk to the local Sainsburys?
If I drive through the Kingsway Tunnel then vehicles sign up for a pass to do that. Same at many other tunnels and bridges across the country. So its hardly unprecedented.0 -
Joe B, Joe B, Joe B, Joe Beeeeee...kinabalu said:
No, not a gamechanger. I wonder who would be the celebrity endorsement for Biden that might bring the Rustbelt firmly into his column. Hard to think of one. It would have to be somebody with massive blue collar appeal who is usually apolitical, and if anything has more of a conservative than a liberal vibe to them. And actually, just typing that, there is someone very obvious that springs to mind - Dolly Parton.HYUFD said:
Indeed, though I cannot imagine having Prince Harry, descendant of King George III and his Hollywood actress wife speaking from the garden of their $15 million mansion in California and telling the oiks in the rustbelt they better vote for Biden- Harris will exactly have been greatly welcomed by the Biden camp, in fact I suspect the Trump campaign will not be bothered about it at all.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
I don't know whether Obama's intervention helped or hindered the Remain campaign, or whether it had no impact. Plainly it didn't work, and the overall "Project Fear" messaging of which it was part was a bad strategy. But I do wonder if the idea it actively harmed the Remain campaign is actually correct.MaxPB said:
Obama was superficially popular too when he made those back of the queue comments. It's one thing for British people to say the country is shite and we hate it here, but very different for an outsider to do say the UK is shite and they hate it. It makes everyone instinctively defensive and dismissive of what that person is saying regardless of whether it's true or not.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Is Prince Harry unpopular in the USA or does is the general impression of him a man who served in the military, married a well-liked American TV star, and was driven out by the stuffy Brits?MaxPB said:
Honestly, this is exactly the kind of shit Trump lives for. A British establishment figure that no one really likes any more chatting shit about the US election. This is exactly like Obama telling the UK about being at the back of the queue etc... It's just completely counterproductive.williamglenn said:Prince Harry is volunteering for some invective from Trump.
https://twitter.com/hannah_furness/status/1308709361599078401?s=21
That's a genuine question - I don't know, but am concerned your view may reflect a UK-centric position (personally, I incline to something like the view I outline above but acknowledge that he's had awful press in the UK and mine is a minority view here).
Luckily Americans won't be paying attention to this from Harry and hopefully Trump won't signal boost it. A proper royal would stay out and keep their views to themselves. I'm really hoping team Biden don't signal boost this stuff, it's exactly the kind of endorsement Hillary would have used as an introduction to her at a major event.
As I've also noted, I am not sure whether Prince Harry's intention is actually to help the Biden campaign anyway (although doubtless Meghan is going to vote Biden). They have a series of Netflix programmes in the pipeline, and it isn't the worst thing for him to be in the headlines in the US, regardless of any bearing on the campaign (which I suspect will be minimal either way).
3 -
Fuck business says The ClownScott_xP said:1 -
OMFG Matt Lieberman doesn't understand the rules of the jungle Primary he is running in.
Or he does and he's specifically looking to shit it up for the Dems.
https://twitter.com/LiebermanForGa/status/1308576024666480645?s=191 -
Considering that a broken down car in the Blackwall Tunnel already sees the whole of SE London descend into gridlock (also Boris Johnson's fault BTW, is there anything that this priapic inbred halfwit hasn't fucked up), the impact of lorries getting stopped on the A20 and A2 in the outskirts of London is unthinkable.FF43 said:
Every time they do a 30 minute journey into Kent they have register with this complex system (which doesn't exist, but let's keep it theoretical), to say they are not exporting anything to France?Alistair said:
I presume they will have had to pre register.FF43 said:Somewhat serious question. How do the border guards at Sevenoaks tell which lorry is attempting an illegal dash across the Channel and which one is just delivering crates of milk to the local Sainsburys?
2 -
OnlyLivingBoy said:
Local Sainsbury's so far unaffected. Brought planned fortnightly shop forward from Saturday but no shortages, no queues. They even had a special deal on toilet roll. Didn't engage in any significant panic buying, beyond an extra tube of toothpaste and a bag of bulgur wheat, which was absent from the shelves for about four months for some reason last time around. Plus filled up the car and took out some cash. Total house toilet roll inventory around 15 should be OK for now.RochdalePioneers said:On an Asda conference. Within the first minute he's confirmed that they are running out of bog rolls and pasta due to the panic buying going on
I suspect many people have enough toilet roll to last well into 2021. Especially if exotic foreign food products are no longer available after Xmas.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Local Sainsbury's so far unaffected. Brought planned fortnightly shop forward from Saturday but no shortages, no queues. They even had a special deal on toilet roll. Didn't engage in any significant panic buying, beyond an extra tube of toothpaste and a bag of bulgur wheat, which was absent from the shelves for about four months for some reason last time around. Plus filled up the car and took out some cash. Total house toilet roll inventory around 15 should be OK for now.RochdalePioneers said:On an Asda conference. Within the first minute he's confirmed that they are running out of bog rolls and pasta due to the panic buying going on
Panic buying this time will have to focus on something else.0 -
If it happens you will be able to push as many Brexiteers as you like into the English Channel.DougSeal said:
As a resident of East Kent who will, in four months may well be unable to drive to my nearest Sainsburys (Bybrook, Ashford in case you're interested) because it will involve crossing the M20 at Junction 9, can any of the Brexiters on here give me something about the end of transition to look forward to? I already have my blue passport.Scott_xP said:2 -
-
As far as I am aware it is the other way roundAndy_Cooke said:
A trade surplus means that we buy more from them than they buy from us.Philip_Thompson said:
If the EU don't want a trade deal enough then we can have plenty of very good British cheeses that can substitute for European ones if they want a trade war.FF43 said:
Some arresting numbers in that report, egRichard_Nabavi said:
Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:- In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
- In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
- In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
- In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.
Considering they have a trade surplus with us though I doubt it, they will concede to our superior cards and give us a deal.
And this gives us the superior cards?0 - In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
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Absolutely. All over the country people need special passes to enter. Nirvana!Philip_Thompson said:
Presumably the ones delivering to Sainsburys would need to sign up for a pass too?FF43 said:Somewhat serious question. How do the border guards at Sevenoaks tell which lorry is attempting an illegal dash across the Channel and which one is just delivering crates of milk to the local Sainsburys?
If I drive through the Kingsway Tunnel then vehicles sign up for a pass to do that. Same at many other tunnels and bridges across the country. So its hardly unprecedented.0 -
I think the Kentish people are more likely to kick off about this:TheScreamingEagles said:If the people in Kent start revolting the government should tell them it would be much worse if we didn't hold all the cards.
https://tinyurl.com/y4k6mzoa0 -
keep us postedOnlyLivingBoy said:
Local Sainsbury's so far unaffected. Brought planned fortnightly shop forward from Saturday but no shortages, no queues. They even had a special deal on toilet roll. Didn't engage in any significant panic buying, beyond an extra tube of toothpaste and a bag of bulgur wheat, which was absent from the shelves for about four months for some reason last time around. Plus filled up the car and took out some cash. Total house toilet roll inventory around 15 should be OK for now.RochdalePioneers said:On an Asda conference. Within the first minute he's confirmed that they are running out of bog rolls and pasta due to the panic buying going on
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Still let's not be too negative. OK, the country is already hugely disrupted by Covid-19, but we have around 12 weeks before everything shuts down for Xmas. Plenty of time to write an entire new computer system from scratch, do initial user testing, do the field testing with hauliers, make any changes necessary, train up the thousands of haulage firms in using it, do the same in multiple languages for EU27 hauliers, install the gantries and ANPR systems, train up the enforcement agencies, and do the consultations on the exact regulations. We just need to Believe, don't we?6
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So does a HGV need one permit that works indefinitely, or do they need to apply for one for a specific day or time window? If so, how long will the “application process” take? What happens if all the “slots” fill up? Is it going to be a free for all first come first serve system like the covid-19 testing system?0
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I'd forgotten about that, I enjoyed my time campaigning in Rochester & Strood in 2014 and 2015.tlg86 said:
I think the Kentish people are more likely to kick off about this:TheScreamingEagles said:If the people in Kent start revolting the government should tell them it would be much worse if we didn't hold all the cards.
https://tinyurl.com/y4k6mzoa0 -
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Challenge trial starts January, infections February, results start rolling in a fortnight after that. Doesn’t suggest anyone thinks there will be a usable vaccine by end 2020.CarlottaVance said:0
This discussion has been closed.