The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Indeed Geoffrey Clifton Brown, a backbench Tory MP, on Newsnight yesterday also confirmed his fellow Tory MPs were now increasingly split on whether they want Biden or Trump to win unlike opposition MPs who of course all want Biden to win (with the exception of the pro Trump DUP) and Boris of course has praised Trump for 'making America great again'
As a politician in a different country you would think the sane approach would be to keep completely silent on the internal politics of other countries.
Well quite. If Biden wins it hardly helps matters if he knows the UK's governing party was agitating for Trump. Boris has mucked things up with Anglo-US relations as it is. This sulky nonsense from the Tories is making our diplomats' lives even harder.
Not necessarily, in 1992 the Tories were openly rooting for Bush Snr, even sending staffers over to help the Republicans but Clinton won and despite a poor start he and Major patched things up.
Similarly in 2000 New Labour desperately wanted Gore to win but when Bush won Blair managed to famously build a great relationship with him.
However it is more a policy issue with Biden specifically regarding no border in the Irish Sea and a FTA
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Indeed Geoffrey Clifton Brown, a backbench Tory MP, on Newsnight yesterday also confirmed his fellow Tory MPs were now increasingly split on whether they want Biden or Trump to win unlike opposition MPs who of course all want Biden to win (with the exception of the pro Trump DUP) and Boris of course has praised Trump for 'making America great again'
Of course, Tory MPs are increasingly a bunch of sociopathic gangsters like the US Republicans, so not very surprising.
However in real terms we also remember in 2004 that while most Britons preferred Kerry to win the Blair administration from what we now know secretly wanted Bush to win given Kerry's statement he would shift towards France and Germany and away from the UK if he won as a result of the UK's support for Bush in the Iraq War.
Apart from the Clintons and maybe Gore all recent Democratic nominees, Kerry, Biden and of course Obama after his 'back of the queue' remarks and statement that Merkel was his favourite fellow world leader and removal of the Churchill bust from the Oval Office Trump restored, have favoured the EU and continental Europe over the UK. Republicans have favoured the UK over the EU
The reality is that they have all - Democrat and Republican, up to and including Trump - been much more interested in Asia than Europe. The Republicans have a better relationship with the Conservative party than do the Democrats. After five years of Corbyn, Labour has lost a lot of its sway with the Democrats. The UK really isn't of much interest to anyone in the US, beyond what the US can get from us.
However for the UK the US remains our largest export market after the EU and our strongest military ally so who leads the US is of interest to us.
The US is a superpower so has different priorities ie containing China in particular.
Biden it should also be pointed out is a friend of Neil Kinnock, no surprise after he plagiarised one of his speeches, so that will help rebuild the relationship between Starmer Labour and the Biden Democrats
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Indeed Geoffrey Clifton Brown, a backbench Tory MP, on Newsnight yesterday also confirmed his fellow Tory MPs were now increasingly split on whether they want Biden or Trump to win unlike opposition MPs who of course all want Biden to win (with the exception of the pro Trump DUP) and Boris of course has praised Trump for 'making America great again'
Of course, Tory MPs are increasingly a bunch of sociopathic gangsters like the US Republicans, so not very surprising.
However in real terms we also remember in 2004 that while most Britons preferred Kerry to win the Blair administration from what we now know secretly wanted Bush to win given Kerry's statement he would shift towards France and Germany and away from the UK if he won as a result of the UK's support for Bush in the Iraq War.
Apart from the Clintons and maybe Gore all recent Democratic nominees, Kerry, Biden and of course Obama after his 'back of the queue' remarks and statement that Merkel was his favourite fellow world leader and removal of the Churchill bust from the Oval Office Trump restored, have favoured the EU and continental Europe over the UK. Republicans have favoured the UK over the EU
The reality is that they have all - Democrat and Republican, up to and including Trump - been much more interested in Asia than Europe. The Republicans have a better relationship with the Conservative party than do the Democrats. After five years of Corbyn, Labour has lost a lot of its sway with the Democrats. The UK really isn't of much interest to anyone in the US, beyond what the US can get from us.
Because the future is in Asia not Europe.
Brexiteers have grasped this concept, hence the talk in recent years of joining the CPTPP.
Remainers still think Europe is the whole world. Glad you are coming around to our way of thinking.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Indeed Geoffrey Clifton Brown, a backbench Tory MP, on Newsnight yesterday also confirmed his fellow Tory MPs were now increasingly split on whether they want Biden or Trump to win unlike opposition MPs who of course all want Biden to win (with the exception of the pro Trump DUP) and Boris of course has praised Trump for 'making America great again'
As a politician in a different country you would think the sane approach would be to keep completely silent on the internal politics of other countries.
Well quite. If Biden wins it hardly helps matters if he knows the UK's governing party was agitating for Trump. Boris has mucked things up with Anglo-US relations as it is. This sulky nonsense from the Tories is making our diplomats' lives even harder.
Not necessarily, in 1992 the Tories were openly rooting for Bush Snr, even sending staffers over to help the Republicans but Clinton won and despite a poor start he and Major patched things up.
Similarly in 2000 New Labour desperately wanted Gore to win but when Bush won Blair managed to famously build a great relationship with him.
However it is more a policy issue with Biden specifically regarding no border in the Irish Sea and a FTA
It's part policy, it's part the influence of the old guard in Democrat politics. Whilst the Irish Catholic influence has weakened over the years in the Democrat party machine, it is still important on the East Coast for many politicians and voters.
So a journalist/pundit who studied Classics is not the best in leading a national response to a pandemic.
Who knew? 🤷♂️
Did you know that a global pandemic was coming in 2020, and that therefore the Prime Minister should be an epidemiologist (not that one was available in any party)? Why on earth did you keep this crucial information to yourself?
BoJo has definite, genuine skills. A decent turn of phrase. An ability to stir the creative pot in a constructive way as the editor of a somewhat gadflyish current affairs magazine. BoJo is also well-versed in some darker, but necessary arts. He can work out what people want to hear from him and tell them that. He can make people like him, in the short term anyway. Useful in a politician.
What's harder to discern is how his skill set or life experience match the job of being Prime Minister. Not just during a pandemic, but during anything other than a jolly August Bank Holiday.
Politically, Johnson is a pound-shop Gyles Brandreth, except he has a worse work ethic, narrower life experience and a lack of self-reflection to realise how out of his depth he is.
Well, we all suffer from the defects of our virtues. Personally, I think the certitude some posters have that everything would be all right if only X had been in charge is a silly, albeit very human, delusion. We have an epochal health crisis striking the whole world in successive waves, and the truth, which is so frightening that we may not wish to admit it to ourselves, is that the virus doesn't really care who's running the country, what degree they have, or what life experience - it's going to do what it's going to do, until a vaccine is found.
Macron is an énarque, trained in the art of national administration in an academy founded for that specific purpose, which generates a governing elite far narrower than Oxbridge does. Cases are out of control in France too...
So a journalist/pundit who studied Classics is not the best in leading a national response to a pandemic.
Who knew? 🤷♂️
Did you know that a global pandemic was coming in 2020, and that therefore the Prime Minister should be an epidemiologist (not that one was available in any party)? Why on earth did you keep this crucial information to yourself?
BoJo has definite, genuine skills. A decent turn of phrase. An ability to stir the creative pot in a constructive way as the editor of a somewhat gadflyish current affairs magazine. BoJo is also well-versed in some darker, but necessary arts. He can work out what people want to hear from him and tell them that. He can make people like him, in the short term anyway. Useful in a politician.
What's harder to discern is how his skill set or life experience match the job of being Prime Minister. Not just during a pandemic, but during anything other than a jolly August Bank Holiday.
Politically, Johnson is a pound-shop Gyles Brandreth, except he has a worse work ethic, narrower life experience and a lack of self-reflection to realise how out of his depth he is.
Well, we all suffer from the defects of our virtues. Personally, I think the certitude some posters have that everything would be all right if only X had been in charge is a silly, albeit very human, delusion. We have an epochal health crisis striking the whole world in successive waves, and the truth, which is so frightening that we may not wish to admit it to ourselves, is that the virus doesn't really care who's running the country, what degree they have, or what life experience - it's going to do what it's going to do, until a vaccine is found.
Macron is an énarque, trained in the art of national administration in an academy founded for that specific purpose, which generates a governing elite far narrower than Oxbridge does. Cases are out of control in France too...
Classic whataboutery, and "it's going to do what it's going to do, until a vaccine is found" is total bollocks. If it were so, the lockdown would have had no impact.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Indeed Geoffrey Clifton Brown, a backbench Tory MP, on Newsnight yesterday also confirmed his fellow Tory MPs were now increasingly split on whether they want Biden or Trump to win unlike opposition MPs who of course all want Biden to win (with the exception of the pro Trump DUP) and Boris of course has praised Trump for 'making America great again'
Of course, Tory MPs are increasingly a bunch of sociopathic gangsters like the US Republicans, so not very surprising.
However in real terms we also remember in 2004 that while most Britons preferred Kerry to win the Blair administration from what we now know secretly wanted Bush to win given Kerry's statement he would shift towards France and Germany and away from the UK if he won as a result of the UK's support for Bush in the Iraq War.
Apart from the Clintons and maybe Gore all recent Democratic nominees, Kerry, Biden and of course Obama after his 'back of the queue' remarks and statement that Merkel was his favourite fellow world leader and removal of the Churchill bust from the Oval Office Trump restored, have favoured the EU and continental Europe over the UK. Republicans have favoured the UK over the EU
The reality is that they have all - Democrat and Republican, up to and including Trump - been much more interested in Asia than Europe. The Republicans have a better relationship with the Conservative party than do the Democrats. After five years of Corbyn, Labour has lost a lot of its sway with the Democrats. The UK really isn't of much interest to anyone in the US, beyond what the US can get from us.
Because the future is in Asia not Europe.
Brexiteers have grasped this concept, hence the talk in recent years of joining the CPTPP.
Remainers still think Europe is the whole world. Glad you are coming around to our way of thinking.
We have had an office in Hong Kong for eight years, Phil. We make over 60% of our revenue from North America and the US. I don't believe there has to be a choice. There is no need to abandon huge trade benefits with Europe to make the most of opportunities elesewhere.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Indeed Geoffrey Clifton Brown, a backbench Tory MP, on Newsnight yesterday also confirmed his fellow Tory MPs were now increasingly split on whether they want Biden or Trump to win unlike opposition MPs who of course all want Biden to win (with the exception of the pro Trump DUP) and Boris of course has praised Trump for 'making America great again'
Of course, Tory MPs are increasingly a bunch of sociopathic gangsters like the US Republicans, so not very surprising.
However in real terms we also remember in 2004 that while most Britons preferred Kerry to win the Blair administration from what we now know secretly wanted Bush to win given Kerry's statement he would shift towards France and Germany and away from the UK if he won as a result of the UK's support for Bush in the Iraq War.
Apart from the Clintons and maybe Gore all recent Democratic nominees, Kerry, Biden and of course Obama after his 'back of the queue' remarks and statement that Merkel was his favourite fellow world leader and removal of the Churchill bust from the Oval Office Trump restored, have favoured the EU and continental Europe over the UK. Republicans have favoured the UK over the EU
The reality is that they have all - Democrat and Republican, up to and including Trump - been much more interested in Asia than Europe. The Republicans have a better relationship with the Conservative party than do the Democrats. After five years of Corbyn, Labour has lost a lot of its sway with the Democrats. The UK really isn't of much interest to anyone in the US, beyond what the US can get from us.
Because the future is in Asia not Europe.
Brexiteers have grasped this concept, hence the talk in recent years of joining the CPTPP.
Remainers still think Europe is the whole world. Glad you are coming around to our way of thinking.
We have had an office in Hong Kong for eight years, Phil. We make over 60% of our revenue from North America and the US. I don't believe there has to be a choice. There is no need to abandon huge trade benefits with Europe to make the most of opportunities elesewhere.
Indeed, it is profoundly ironic that supposed free-marketeers are picking winners at a continental level. Asia good, Europe bad is no way to oversee an economy.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Indeed Geoffrey Clifton Brown, a backbench Tory MP, on Newsnight yesterday also confirmed his fellow Tory MPs were now increasingly split on whether they want Biden or Trump to win unlike opposition MPs who of course all want Biden to win (with the exception of the pro Trump DUP) and Boris of course has praised Trump for 'making America great again'
Of course, Tory MPs are increasingly a bunch of sociopathic gangsters like the US Republicans, so not very surprising.
However in real terms we also remember in 2004 that while most Britons preferred Kerry to win the Blair administration from what we now know secretly wanted Bush to win given Kerry's statement he would shift towards France and Germany and away from the UK if he won as a result of the UK's support for Bush in the Iraq War.
Apart from the Clintons and maybe Gore all recent Democratic nominees, Kerry, Biden and of course Obama after his 'back of the queue' remarks and statement that Merkel was his favourite fellow world leader and removal of the Churchill bust from the Oval Office Trump restored, have favoured the EU and continental Europe over the UK. Republicans have favoured the UK over the EU
The reality is that they have all - Democrat and Republican, up to and including Trump - been much more interested in Asia than Europe. The Republicans have a better relationship with the Conservative party than do the Democrats. After five years of Corbyn, Labour has lost a lot of its sway with the Democrats. The UK really isn't of much interest to anyone in the US, beyond what the US can get from us.
Because the future is in Asia not Europe.
Brexiteers have grasped this concept, hence the talk in recent years of joining the CPTPP.
Remainers still think Europe is the whole world. Glad you are coming around to our way of thinking.
We have had an office in Hong Kong for eight years, Phil. We make over 60% of our revenue from North America and the US. I don't believe there has to be a choice. There is no need to abandon huge trade benefits with Europe to make the most of opportunities elesewhere.
But leaving the Single Market isn't abandoning trade with Europe any more than we have abandoned trade with the US by not having a deal with them.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Indeed Geoffrey Clifton Brown, a backbench Tory MP, on Newsnight yesterday also confirmed his fellow Tory MPs were now increasingly split on whether they want Biden or Trump to win unlike opposition MPs who of course all want Biden to win (with the exception of the pro Trump DUP) and Boris of course has praised Trump for 'making America great again'
Of course, Tory MPs are increasingly a bunch of sociopathic gangsters like the US Republicans, so not very surprising.
However in real terms we also remember in 2004 that while most Britons preferred Kerry to win the Blair administration from what we now know secretly wanted Bush to win given Kerry's statement he would shift towards France and Germany and away from the UK if he won as a result of the UK's support for Bush in the Iraq War.
Apart from the Clintons and maybe Gore all recent Democratic nominees, Kerry, Biden and of course Obama after his 'back of the queue' remarks and statement that Merkel was his favourite fellow world leader and removal of the Churchill bust from the Oval Office Trump restored, have favoured the EU and continental Europe over the UK. Republicans have favoured the UK over the EU
The reality is that they have all - Democrat and Republican, up to and including Trump - been much more interested in Asia than Europe. The Republicans have a better relationship with the Conservative party than do the Democrats. After five years of Corbyn, Labour has lost a lot of its sway with the Democrats. The UK really isn't of much interest to anyone in the US, beyond what the US can get from us.
Because the future is in Asia not Europe.
Brexiteers have grasped this concept, hence the talk in recent years of joining the CPTPP.
Remainers still think Europe is the whole world. Glad you are coming around to our way of thinking.
We have had an office in Hong Kong for eight years, Phil. We make over 60% of our revenue from North America and the US. I don't believe there has to be a choice. There is no need to abandon huge trade benefits with Europe to make the most of opportunities elesewhere.
But leaving the Single Market isn't abandoning trade with Europe any more than we have abandoned trade with the US by not having a deal with them.
It is making it more expensive and more time consuming, while also reducing the services that can be sold into a market of 400 million people.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Indeed Geoffrey Clifton Brown, a backbench Tory MP, on Newsnight yesterday also confirmed his fellow Tory MPs were now increasingly split on whether they want Biden or Trump to win unlike opposition MPs who of course all want Biden to win (with the exception of the pro Trump DUP) and Boris of course has praised Trump for 'making America great again'
Of course, Tory MPs are increasingly a bunch of sociopathic gangsters like the US Republicans, so not very surprising.
However in real terms we also remember in 2004 that while most Britons preferred Kerry to win the Blair administration from what we now know secretly wanted Bush to win given Kerry's statement he would shift towards France and Germany and away from the UK if he won as a result of the UK's support for Bush in the Iraq War.
Apart from the Clintons and maybe Gore all recent Democratic nominees, Kerry, Biden and of course Obama after his 'back of the queue' remarks and statement that Merkel was his favourite fellow world leader and removal of the Churchill bust from the Oval Office Trump restored, have favoured the EU and continental Europe over the UK. Republicans have favoured the UK over the EU
The reality is that they have all - Democrat and Republican, up to and including Trump - been much more interested in Asia than Europe. The Republicans have a better relationship with the Conservative party than do the Democrats. After five years of Corbyn, Labour has lost a lot of its sway with the Democrats. The UK really isn't of much interest to anyone in the US, beyond what the US can get from us.
Because the future is in Asia not Europe.
Brexiteers have grasped this concept, hence the talk in recent years of joining the CPTPP.
Remainers still think Europe is the whole world. Glad you are coming around to our way of thinking.
We have had an office in Hong Kong for eight years, Phil. We make over 60% of our revenue from North America and the US. I don't believe there has to be a choice. There is no need to abandon huge trade benefits with Europe to make the most of opportunities elesewhere.
Its never been obvious to me how losing one set of customers helps gain another. What was restricting our businesses from seeking customers elsewhere such as Asia before?
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Indeed Geoffrey Clifton Brown, a backbench Tory MP, on Newsnight yesterday also confirmed his fellow Tory MPs were now increasingly split on whether they want Biden or Trump to win unlike opposition MPs who of course all want Biden to win (with the exception of the pro Trump DUP) and Boris of course has praised Trump for 'making America great again'
Of course, Tory MPs are increasingly a bunch of sociopathic gangsters like the US Republicans, so not very surprising.
However in real terms we also remember in 2004 that while most Britons preferred Kerry to win the Blair administration from what we now know secretly wanted Bush to win given Kerry's statement he would shift towards France and Germany and away from the UK if he won as a result of the UK's support for Bush in the Iraq War.
Apart from the Clintons and maybe Gore all recent Democratic nominees, Kerry, Biden and of course Obama after his 'back of the queue' remarks and statement that Merkel was his favourite fellow world leader and removal of the Churchill bust from the Oval Office Trump restored, have favoured the EU and continental Europe over the UK. Republicans have favoured the UK over the EU
The reality is that they have all - Democrat and Republican, up to and including Trump - been much more interested in Asia than Europe. The Republicans have a better relationship with the Conservative party than do the Democrats. After five years of Corbyn, Labour has lost a lot of its sway with the Democrats. The UK really isn't of much interest to anyone in the US, beyond what the US can get from us.
Because the future is in Asia not Europe.
Brexiteers have grasped this concept, hence the talk in recent years of joining the CPTPP.
Remainers still think Europe is the whole world. Glad you are coming around to our way of thinking.
We have had an office in Hong Kong for eight years, Phil. We make over 60% of our revenue from North America and the US. I don't believe there has to be a choice. There is no need to abandon huge trade benefits with Europe to make the most of opportunities elesewhere.
Indeed, it is profoundly ironic that supposed free-marketeers are picking winners at a continental level. Asia good, Europe bad is no way to oversee an economy.
I count myself as a Brexiteer but I agree with this view that it is crazy to start thinking of writing off entire continents. Europe is still an extremely rich place despite its long term issues. And, when you break down Asia, it is clear that it might not be the massive opportunity it is cracked up to be - that "opportunity" is essentially a China that is out of control and willing to stick two fingers up to the international community, and an India, which is still tied up in massive amounts of red tape and which is ruled by a nationalist Government. The rest of Asia? Mmmm
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anyway
So a journalist/pundit who studied Classics is not the best in leading a national response to a pandemic.
Who knew? 🤷♂️
Did you know that a global pandemic was coming in 2020, and that therefore the Prime Minister should be an epidemiologist (not that one was available in any party)? Why on earth did you keep this crucial information to yourself?
BoJo has definite, genuine skills. A decent turn of phrase. An ability to stir the creative pot in a constructive way as the editor of a somewhat gadflyish current affairs magazine. BoJo is also well-versed in some darker, but necessary arts. He can work out what people want to hear from him and tell them that. He can make people like him, in the short term anyway. Useful in a politician.
What's harder to discern is how his skill set or life experience match the job of being Prime Minister. Not just during a pandemic, but during anything other than a jolly August Bank Holiday.
Politically, Johnson is a pound-shop Gyles Brandreth, except he has a worse work ethic, narrower life experience and a lack of self-reflection to realise how out of his depth he is.
Well, we all suffer from the defects of our virtues. Personally, I think the certitude some posters have that everything would be all right if only X had been in charge is a silly, albeit very human, delusion. We have an epochal health crisis striking the whole world in successive waves, and the truth, which is so frightening that we may not wish to admit it to ourselves, is that the virus doesn't really care who's running the country, what degree they have, or what life experience - it's going to do what it's going to do, until a vaccine is found.
Macron is an énarque, trained in the art of national administration in an academy founded for that specific purpose, which generates a governing elite far narrower than Oxbridge does. Cases are out of control in France too...
Classic whataboutery, and "it's going to do what it's going to do, until a vaccine is found" is total bollocks. If it were so, the lockdown would have had no impact.
The lockdown had a huge impact ... while it was happening. Once the lockdown was released, cases bounced back. I'm not arguing against the lockdown at all, but the fact is that it's a blunt, expensive, and temporary measure, even if it's the best we've got for now.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
May would have done better. Cameron would have done better. Brown would have done better. Blair would have done better. Major would have done better. Thatcher would have done better. Callaghan would have done better Wilson would have done better. Heath would have done better.
That is just your political bias
Looking at that list I'd have to say Johnson appears the least suited to the task. Thatcher would have been brilliant, but then she was a scientist and people trusted her.
A lot of global political leaders have enhanced their reputation but some have suffered. Trump has done particularly badly. Johnson started well but fell away badly after the Cummings fiasco and it's got worse since.
What's missing is basic competence, leadership and non-laziness. I truly feel that Gordon Brown, awful politician that he was, would have made a good fist of this. I'd much rather a pm who threw nokias at people over exam and testing cockups than one who just couldn't be arsed to.
I would go for Mrs May. She would at least have made an effort to do the right thing. We would have locked down two weeks sooner, and schools would have been prioritised over pubs.
The problem with May is that she would have been undermined by Boris carping from the sidelines, complaining about liberties and using the pandemic to bolster his reputation with right.
Once minor silver lining of all this is that right have been tied to the Brexit response. They are would have been giving any other pm hell. Goodness know how much shit Corbyn would have got about socialism and government control he had done the exact same things as Sunak and Boris.
May would have said and done nothing for weeks (or even months) and then popped up, announced her decision and then demanded everyone support it.
She had zero people skills.
Theresa May would at least have known what her position was.
Boris cannot be bothered even to understand his own official pronouncements. His musing that the rule of six really meant sixty at an Animal House party, for instance, is strikingly similar to his early presser where he dutifully recited the lockdown rules but then added he was looking forward to seeing his dear old mum on Mothers Day.
Has there been another prime minister like this? I cannot think of one.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.
The difference is that Brexiteers were a majority of the country in the Referendum.
White supremacists are not a majority of Americans.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anyway
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
What did I say yesterday? The moment I read that he was a member of 'Independent Sage', I breathed a huge sigh of relief!
I have no doubt the CMO is worried though, probably wanting some additional mitigation.
I'm sure he is, rightly, but there's a huge gap between that and advising an immediate national lockdown, not to mention his claim that UK cases are now really at US levels and we just haven't realized it yet.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.
The difference is that Brexiteers were a majority of the country in the Referendum.
White supremacists are not a majority of Americans.
No, they are not but, for many, it is not a question of race, it's a question of values, which is a different matter.
To them, people like Kasich were quite willing to sell out American jobs to China for the sake of big business and would do nothing to protect American values being trampled by the likes of Antifa / BLM.
What @Casino_Royale said was right. Many will hold their noses because they feel like they need someone prepared to slug it out and not back down to protect what they cherish.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anyway
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
Agree on the GOP establishment who are largely upper middle class while Trump's base is working class and lower middle class (much like the Tory establishment and the Tory vote under Boris).
If Trump is re elected however I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama
The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.
Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anyway
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
Agree on the GOP establishment who are largely upper middle class while Trump's base is working class and lower middle class (much like the Tory establishment and the Tory vote under Boris).
If Trump is re elected however I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama
If Trump wins again who is saying he won't run again in 2024. What was the chant, twelve more years... twelve more years?
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anyway
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
If Trump is re elected I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama
I am not so sure. There is an argument that, when it comes to values, the Republicans are closer to Black and Hispanic (especially evangelical ones) than the Democrats. Expect more emphasis on this and the failures of Democrat-led cities to improve the lives of Black voters. If a second term is focused on a massive infrastructure revamp that may be the opening to drive a federally-led programme in the cities.
The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.
Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.
The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.
Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anyway
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
Agree on the GOP establishment who are largely upper middle class while Trump's base is working class and lower middle class (much like the Tory establishment and the Tory vote under Boris).
If Trump is re elected however I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama
If Trump wins again who is saying he won't run again in 2024. What was the chant, twelve more years... twelve more years?
He can't under the Constitution and to change that requires a 2/3 majority in both the House and Senate and 2/3 of state legislatures to approve which won't happen
Er what is the relevance of this to anything? I'm surprised that more people have never been to London and that as many as half visit in a given year to be honest. Before I lived in London I never came here much either. And I've never been to Bristol or Hull, but that doesn't mean I don't think they are important places. Similarly in the last 12 months I probably haven't been to any major city outside London except for Leeds and Edinburgh, but that doesn't mean I think Manchester and Birmingham are unimportant. People go on about too much focus on London, it's not true. There is too much focus on the upper middle class, the majority of whom live in London and the Home Counties (the latter being completely different from London BTW). But I don't think I have ever seen my own Borough of Lewisham mentioned in the news, for instance, and there are 300k people living here.
That California poll is an excellent poll for Biden. Just superb.
Clinton got 61.7% in California. For Biden to be even a point down there means he's not piling up votes in safe Blue states.
I would have thought an ideal poll for Biden would have been the last one where Trump had significantly cut the lead in California but with no chance of winning i.e. Trump is losing even more ground in Battleground states.
That poll also suggests the GOP will re-capture a number of House seats in CA this time round.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anyway
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
Agree on the GOP establishment who are largely upper middle class while Trump's base is working class and lower middle class (much like the Tory establishment and the Tory vote under Boris).
If Trump is re elected however I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama
If Trump wins again who is saying he won't run again in 2024. What was the chant, twelve more years... twelve more years?
He can't under the Constitution and to change that requires a 2/3 majority in both the House and Senate and 2/3 of state legislatures to approve which won't happen
Who’s going to stop him? A pro-Trump Supreme Court?
The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.
Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.
The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.
Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.
Depending on timing, you could imagine the government adding a week either side of the school holidays at Christmas and enforcing more measures, telling everyone to stay home and enjoy Xmas with their nuclear family to create a four week firebreak to suppress any winter outbreak, get us through to the spring and perhaps a vaccine thereafter. Would seem a reasonable compromise that would minimise the economic disruption as things are quiet then anyway.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anyway
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
Agree on the GOP establishment who are largely upper middle class while Trump's base is working class and lower middle class (much like the Tory establishment and the Tory vote under Boris).
If Trump is re elected however I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama
If Trump wins again who is saying he won't run again in 2024. What was the chant, twelve more years... twelve more years?
He can't under the Constitution and to change that requires a 2/3 majority in both the House and Senate and 2/3 of state legislatures to approve which won't happen
Who’s going to stop him? A pro-Trump Supreme Court?
It'd be a 6-3 decision with Gorsuch and Roberts joining the liberal justices. Gorsuch certainly takes the constitution seriously.
New Zealand hit by its worst recession since current measurement began in 1987 as gdp sank by 12.2% between April and June during its lockdown and border closures
The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.
Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.
Further evidence of the complete redundancy of the tag 'globalist' for credulous idiots. Trump is a full-on supporter of globalist financialisation, and many of the leading Brexiters are, financially and ideoligically speaking, ultra-globalists.
The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.
Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anyway
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
Agree on the GOP establishment who are largely upper middle class while Trump's base is working class and lower middle class (much like the Tory establishment and the Tory vote under Boris).
If Trump is re elected however I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama
If Trump wins again who is saying he won't run again in 2024. What was the chant, twelve more years... twelve more years?
He can't under the Constitution and to change that requires a 2/3 majority in both the House and Senate and 2/3 of state legislatures to approve which won't happen
Who’s going to stop him? A pro-Trump Supreme Court?
Congress and the state legislatures neither of which will have a 2/3 majority required to change the constitution even if it is a Trump landslide in November.
Constitutionally if he cannot run he cannot be on the ballot in 2024
New Zealand hit by its worst recession since current measurement began in 1987 as gdp sank by 12.2% between April and June during its lockdown and border closures
The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.
Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.
Depending on timing, you could imagine the government adding a week either side of the school holidays at Christmas and enforcing more measures, telling everyone to stay home and enjoy Xmas with their nuclear family to create a four week firebreak to suppress any winter outbreak, get us through to the spring and perhaps a vaccine thereafter. Would seem a reasonable compromise that would minimise the economic disruption as things are quiet then anyway.
That California poll is an excellent poll for Biden. Just superb.
Clinton got 61.7% in California. For Biden to be even a point down there means he's not piling up votes in safe Blue states.
Young techie people in my twitters have been complaining that they moved away from California over the rona to various places like Texas and Utah only to find it full of fellow Californian migrants.
I don't think we really have a good read on the scale of the migrations that have happened this year.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anyway
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
Agree on the GOP establishment who are largely upper middle class while Trump's base is working class and lower middle class (much like the Tory establishment and the Tory vote under Boris).
If Trump is re elected however I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama
If Trump wins again who is saying he won't run again in 2024. What was the chant, twelve more years... twelve more years?
He can't under the Constitution and to change that requires a 2/3 majority in both the House and Senate and 2/3 of state legislatures to approve which won't happen
Who’s going to stop him? A pro-Trump Supreme Court?
It'd be a 6-3 decision with Gorsuch and Roberts joining the liberal justices. Gorsuch certainly takes the constitution seriously.
RBG dies and suddenly it’s 5-4 and 4 years is a long time.
Leave.EU is Faragist not Conservative and have always been pro-Trump.
And you pretend to not like Trump. Why bother pretending?
No it is not just Faragist, eg the current Tory Leader of the House, Jacob Rees Mogg, a key member of Boris' Cabinet is an active supporter of Leave.EU
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anyway
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
Agree on the GOP establishment who are largely upper middle class while Trump's base is working class and lower middle class (much like the Tory establishment and the Tory vote under Boris).
If Trump is re elected however I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama
If Trump wins again who is saying he won't run again in 2024. What was the chant, twelve more years... twelve more years?
He can't under the Constitution and to change that requires a 2/3 majority in both the House and Senate and 2/3 of state legislatures to approve which won't happen
Who’s going to stop him? A pro-Trump Supreme Court?
Congress and the state legislatures neither of which will have a 2/3 majority required to change the constitution even if it is a Trump landslide in November.
Constitutionally if he cannot run he cannot be on the ballot in 2024
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anyway
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
Agree on the GOP establishment who are largely upper middle class while Trump's base is working class and lower middle class (much like the Tory establishment and the Tory vote under Boris).
If Trump is re elected however I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama
If Trump wins again who is saying he won't run again in 2024. What was the chant, twelve more years... twelve more years?
He can't under the Constitution and to change that requires a 2/3 majority in both the House and Senate and 2/3 of state legislatures to approve which won't happen
Who’s going to stop him? A pro-Trump Supreme Court?
Congress and the state legislatures neither of which will have a 2/3 majority required to change the constitution even if it is a Trump landslide in November.
Constitutionally if he cannot run he cannot be on the ballot in 2024
The Supreme Court decides what is constitutional.
Perhaps they'll interpret "term" as the SNP interpret "generation"?
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anyway
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
Agree on the GOP establishment who are largely upper middle class while Trump's base is working class and lower middle class (much like the Tory establishment and the Tory vote under Boris).
If Trump is re elected however I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama
If Trump wins again who is saying he won't run again in 2024. What was the chant, twelve more years... twelve more years?
He can't under the Constitution and to change that requires a 2/3 majority in both the House and Senate and 2/3 of state legislatures to approve which won't happen
Who’s going to stop him? A pro-Trump Supreme Court?
It'd be a 6-3 decision with Gorsuch and Roberts joining the liberal justices. Gorsuch certainly takes the constitution seriously.
RBG dies and suddenly it’s 5-4 and 4 years is a long time.
And yet the two justices that Trump has picked have both chosen the constitution over loyalty to Trump when presented with the opportunity.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.
So we will have some broad categories (with overlap) of 2016 Trump voters -
1. Those who really liked him. 2. Those who always vote Republican. 3. Those who were dubious about him but thought him worth a go.
I think he keeps all of (1) but loses a few % of both (2) and (3).
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anyway
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
Agree on the GOP establishment who are largely upper middle class while Trump's base is working class and lower middle class (much like the Tory establishment and the Tory vote under Boris).
If Trump is re elected however I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama
If Trump wins again who is saying he won't run again in 2024. What was the chant, twelve more years... twelve more years?
He can't under the Constitution and to change that requires a 2/3 majority in both the House and Senate and 2/3 of state legislatures to approve which won't happen
Who’s going to stop him? A pro-Trump Supreme Court?
It'd be a 6-3 decision with Gorsuch and Roberts joining the liberal justices. Gorsuch certainly takes the constitution seriously.
RBG dies and suddenly it’s 5-4 and 4 years is a long time.
And yet the two justices that Trump has picked have both chosen the constitution over loyalty to Trump when presented with the opportunity.
Sure - but it’s still a wildcard. It certainly isn’t certain.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anyway
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
Agree on the GOP establishment who are largely upper middle class while Trump's base is working class and lower middle class (much like the Tory establishment and the Tory vote under Boris).
If Trump is re elected however I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama
If Trump wins again who is saying he won't run again in 2024. What was the chant, twelve more years... twelve more years?
He can't under the Constitution and to change that requires a 2/3 majority in both the House and Senate and 2/3 of state legislatures to approve which won't happen
Who’s going to stop him? A pro-Trump Supreme Court?
Congress and the state legislatures neither of which will have a 2/3 majority required to change the constitution even if it is a Trump landslide in November.
Constitutionally if he cannot run he cannot be on the ballot in 2024
The Supreme Court decides what is constitutional.
The 22nd amendment of the constitution
'No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.'
It does not matter how conservative a judge is they are not going to ignore one of the main parts of the Constitution like that, SC judges argue about the scope of the constitution and amendments, they do not argue the constitution and its amendments do not exist at all
Remainers still think Europe is the whole world. Glad you are coming around to our way of thinking.
There are a few types of pb commentary which are pretty much guaranteed to be dumb and one of them is "broad generalization about the unstated opinions of people you don't agree with".
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anyway
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
Agree on the GOP establishment who are largely upper middle class while Trump's base is working class and lower middle class (much like the Tory establishment and the Tory vote under Boris).
If Trump is re elected however I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama
If Trump wins again who is saying he won't run again in 2024. What was the chant, twelve more years... twelve more years?
He can't under the Constitution and to change that requires a 2/3 majority in both the House and Senate and 2/3 of state legislatures to approve which won't happen
Who’s going to stop him? A pro-Trump Supreme Court?
It'd be a 6-3 decision with Gorsuch and Roberts joining the liberal justices. Gorsuch certainly takes the constitution seriously.
RBG dies and suddenly it’s 5-4 and 4 years is a long time.
And yet the two justices that Trump has picked have both chosen the constitution over loyalty to Trump when presented with the opportunity.
Sure - but it’s still a wildcard. It certainly isn’t certain.
Tbh, if we're talking about term limits then I'd expect a 9-0 loss for Trump running again.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anyway
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
Agree on the GOP establishment who are largely upper middle class while Trump's base is working class and lower middle class (much like the Tory establishment and the Tory vote under Boris).
If Trump is re elected however I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama
If Trump wins again who is saying he won't run again in 2024. What was the chant, twelve more years... twelve more years?
He can't under the Constitution and to change that requires a 2/3 majority in both the House and Senate and 2/3 of state legislatures to approve which won't happen
Who’s going to stop him? A pro-Trump Supreme Court?
Congress and the state legislatures neither of which will have a 2/3 majority required to change the constitution even if it is a Trump landslide in November.
Constitutionally if he cannot run he cannot be on the ballot in 2024
The Supreme Court decides what is constitutional.
The 22nd amendment of the constitution
'No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.'
It does not matter how conservative a judge is they are not going to ignore one of the main parts of the Constitution like that, SC judges argue about the scope of the constitution and amendments, they do not argue the constitution and its amendments do not exist at all
Yes, if Trump got a second term and wanted a third I think he'd put up a puppet, probably Ivanka, who seems like the most telegenic and un-cocaine-ravaged member of his family.
Perhaps they'll interpret "term" as the SNP interpret "generation"?
Given the fundamental changes within the constitution of the UK since the 2014 referendum I find it surprising that people are still using Generation as a valid argument. Yes it should have been a once in a generation vote but things have fundamentally changed since...
That California poll is an excellent poll for Biden. Just superb.
Clinton got 61.7% in California. For Biden to be even a point down there means he's not piling up votes in safe Blue states.
Young techie people in my twitters have been complaining that they moved away from California over the rona to various places like Texas and Utah only to find it full of fellow Californian migrants.
I don't think we really have a good read on the scale of the migrations that have happened this year.
Which is why the Democrats in Texas at longer than 3/1 is a good bet.
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Worth noting though how ineffective current measures are, with cases doubling in Oldham despite the new rules.
Leicester rules have never been fully relaxed, yet are on the uptick. Rumours that the Oadby and Wigston outbreak relates to a wedding with excessive numbers of guests.
We have been told to clear our backlog of waiting list by January. Delusional doesn’t come into it.
Just a wedding? The Rhonnda Cynon Taff lockdown origins are beyond parody. A coach load of pissed up rugby clubbers go for a jolly to Doncaster races, indulging in a pub crawl across England and Wales.
Yes I saw that on the Welsh news last night
The poll that showed 49% believe that any second wave is the public fault v 31% HMG comes to mind
I believe the question in the poll is faulty. It should be two questions.
Are idiots to blame for a second wave? Predicted answer: Yes 90% No 5% (because we are idiots) D/K 5% (because we are idiots)
Have the government actively encouraged idiots to generate a second wave with their Go out and get blind drunk, to help out policy?
The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.
Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.
Depending on timing, you could imagine the government adding a week either side of the school holidays at Christmas and enforcing more measures, telling everyone to stay home and enjoy Xmas with their nuclear family to create a four week firebreak to suppress any winter outbreak, get us through to the spring and perhaps a vaccine thereafter. Would seem a reasonable compromise that would minimise the economic disruption as things are quiet then anyway.
Need to rule out ski holidays now.
Eh? Surely nobody in their right mind would be planning to go to the alps in the middle of a pandemic. What's wrong with staying at home, drinking and watching TV like normal people do at Xmas?
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anyway
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
Agree on the GOP establishment who are largely upper middle class while Trump's base is working class and lower middle class (much like the Tory establishment and the Tory vote under Boris).
If Trump is re elected however I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama
If Trump wins again who is saying he won't run again in 2024. What was the chant, twelve more years... twelve more years?
He can't under the Constitution and to change that requires a 2/3 majority in both the House and Senate and 2/3 of state legislatures to approve which won't happen
Who’s going to stop him? A pro-Trump Supreme Court?
Congress and the state legislatures neither of which will have a 2/3 majority required to change the constitution even if it is a Trump landslide in November.
Constitutionally if he cannot run he cannot be on the ballot in 2024
The Supreme Court decides what is constitutional.
The 22nd amendment of the constitution
'No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.'
It does not matter how conservative a judge is they are not going to ignore one of the main parts of the Constitution like that, SC judges argue about the scope of the constitution and amendments, they do not argue the constitution and its amendments do not exist at all
Yes, if Trump got a second term and wanted a third I think he'd put up a puppet, probably Ivanka, who seems like the most telegenic and un-cocaine-ravaged member of his family.
Pence still leads the early 2024 GOP nomination polling ahead of Trump Jnr and Haley, Ivanka gets just 3%.
If Trump wins as VP Pence will likely be the 2024 GOP nominee, even if Trump loses Pence will also likely be the nominee eg Carter's VP Mondale was the 1984 Democratic nominee after Carter lost his re election battle in 1980
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anyway
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
Agree on the GOP establishment who are largely upper middle class while Trump's base is working class and lower middle class (much like the Tory establishment and the Tory vote under Boris).
If Trump is re elected however I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama
If Trump wins again who is saying he won't run again in 2024. What was the chant, twelve more years... twelve more years?
He can't under the Constitution and to change that requires a 2/3 majority in both the House and Senate and 2/3 of state legislatures to approve which won't happen
Who’s going to stop him? A pro-Trump Supreme Court?
Congress and the state legislatures neither of which will have a 2/3 majority required to change the constitution even if it is a Trump landslide in November.
Constitutionally if he cannot run he cannot be on the ballot in 2024
The Supreme Court decides what is constitutional.
The 22nd amendment of the constitution
'No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.'
It does not matter how conservative a judge is they are not going to ignore one of the main parts of the Constitution like that, SC judges argue about the scope of the constitution and amendments, they do not argue the constitution and its amendments do not exist at all
Yes, if Trump got a second term and wanted a third I think he'd put up a puppet, probably Ivanka, who seems like the most telegenic and un-cocaine-ravaged member of his family.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
A Biden regime would see a post-Brexit Johnson-led UK as unfinished business from the defeat of Trump, and treat us accordingly. He'd try and squeeze us out and bring us to heel.
Trump is ruthlessly self-interested, isolationist and reckless on the global stage (although weirdly that sometimes gets him results) but isn't hostile to the UK. His noises over NATO and Russia threaten our defence interests - they probably help them a bit with China.
This is why I'm feeling increasingly neutral and would go third party.
Even a child knows that global overheating threatens our interests far more than any of those things. Not voting to get rid of Trump is pretty much a crime against humanity, given what we know.
You need to appeal to those who don't already agree with you, if that's what you really care about most.
I might suggest that's not the most effective way of going about it.
I know, I know, it's all my fault for turning you into a moronic Trump supporter because I was rude to you after you became one.
So a journalist/pundit who studied Classics is not the best in leading a national response to a pandemic.
Who knew? 🤷♂️
Did you know that a global pandemic was coming in 2020, and that therefore the Prime Minister should be an epidemiologist (not that one was available in any party)? Why on earth did you keep this crucial information to yourself?
BoJo has definite, genuine skills. A decent turn of phrase. An ability to stir the creative pot in a constructive way as the editor of a somewhat gadflyish current affairs magazine. BoJo is also well-versed in some darker, but necessary arts. He can work out what people want to hear from him and tell them that. He can make people like him, in the short term anyway. Useful in a politician.
What's harder to discern is how his skill set or life experience match the job of being Prime Minister. Not just during a pandemic, but during anything other than a jolly August Bank Holiday.
Politically, Johnson is a pound-shop Gyles Brandreth, except he has a worse work ethic, narrower life experience and a lack of self-reflection to realise how out of his depth he is.
Well, we all suffer from the defects of our virtues. Personally, I think the certitude some posters have that everything would be all right if only X had been in charge is a silly, albeit very human, delusion. We have an epochal health crisis striking the whole world in successive waves, and the truth, which is so frightening that we may not wish to admit it to ourselves, is that the virus doesn't really care who's running the country, what degree they have, or what life experience - it's going to do what it's going to do, until a vaccine is found.
Macron is an énarque, trained in the art of national administration in an academy founded for that specific purpose, which generates a governing elite far narrower than Oxbridge does. Cases are out of control in France too...
How countries have dealt with the pandemic is indeed largely a result of the institutions that were already in place (and to some extent the prevailing culture in particular countries). But competent vs. incompetent leadership does make a difference at the margin. Downing St is perhaps a playpen, compared to the dumpster fire in the White House.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
I love your black and white world. If only life really was that straightforward.
So a journalist/pundit who studied Classics is not the best in leading a national response to a pandemic.
Who knew? 🤷♂️
Did you know that a global pandemic was coming in 2020, and that therefore the Prime Minister should be an epidemiologist (not that one was available in any party)? Why on earth did you keep this crucial information to yourself?
BoJo has definite, genuine skills. A decent turn of phrase. An ability to stir the creative pot in a constructive way as the editor of a somewhat gadflyish current affairs magazine. BoJo is also well-versed in some darker, but necessary arts. He can work out what people want to hear from him and tell them that. He can make people like him, in the short term anyway. Useful in a politician.
What's harder to discern is how his skill set or life experience match the job of being Prime Minister. Not just during a pandemic, but during anything other than a jolly August Bank Holiday.
Politically, Johnson is a pound-shop Gyles Brandreth, except he has a worse work ethic, narrower life experience and a lack of self-reflection to realise how out of his depth he is.
Well, we all suffer from the defects of our virtues. Personally, I think the certitude some posters have that everything would be all right if only X had been in charge is a silly, albeit very human, delusion. We have an epochal health crisis striking the whole world in successive waves, and the truth, which is so frightening that we may not wish to admit it to ourselves, is that the virus doesn't really care who's running the country, what degree they have, or what life experience - it's going to do what it's going to do, until a vaccine is found.
Macron is an énarque, trained in the art of national administration in an academy founded for that specific purpose, which generates a governing elite far narrower than Oxbridge does. Cases are out of control in France too...
How countries have dealt with the pandemic is indeed largely a result of the institutions that were already in place (and to some extent the prevailing culture in particular countries). But competent vs. incompetent leadership does make a difference at the margin. Downing St is perhaps a playpen, compared to the dumpster fire in the White House.
Part of the issue is also governments having the best people in charge or their mates. Once again we seem to be living through a chumocracy, it feels as though we have been for the better part of 20 years with politicians giving important roles to their mates rather than the best person for the job.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Indeed Geoffrey Clifton Brown, a backbench Tory MP, on Newsnight yesterday also confirmed his fellow Tory MPs were now increasingly split on whether they want Biden or Trump to win unlike opposition MPs who of course all want Biden to win (with the exception of the pro Trump DUP) and Boris of course has praised Trump for 'making America great again'
Of course, Tory MPs are increasingly a bunch of sociopathic gangsters like the US Republicans, so not very surprising.
However in real terms we also remember in 2004 that while most Britons preferred Kerry to win the Blair administration from what we now know secretly wanted Bush to win given Kerry's statement he would shift towards France and Germany and away from the UK if he won as a result of the UK's support for Bush in the Iraq War.
Apart from the Clintons and maybe Gore all recent Democratic nominees, Kerry, Biden and of course Obama after his 'back of the queue' remarks and statement that Merkel was his favourite fellow world leader and removal of the Churchill bust from the Oval Office Trump restored, have favoured the EU and continental Europe over the UK. Republicans have favoured the UK over the EU
The reality is that they have all - Democrat and Republican, up to and including Trump - been much more interested in Asia than Europe. The Republicans have a better relationship with the Conservative party than do the Democrats. After five years of Corbyn, Labour has lost a lot of its sway with the Democrats. The UK really isn't of much interest to anyone in the US, beyond what the US can get from us.
Because the future is in Asia not Europe.
Brexiteers have grasped this concept, hence the talk in recent years of joining the CPTPP.
Remainers still think Europe is the whole world. Glad you are coming around to our way of thinking.
Maybe that could be Boris' next BIG 'moonshot' project. Towing England and Wales into the South China Sea.
So let me ask a different question. Why did the incidence of the disease fall so consistently from May to late July to very low levels? What were we doing right that we are not doing now?
We were not wearing anything like the same number of masks so that should be an improvement. We were not doing anything like the same number of tests but of those that we did the percentage of positives was on a downward trend, now reversed. We did have more lockdown provisions in place, especially for restaurants and bars. We basically closed educational institutes, both schools and Universities. We had less travel. We had restrictions on groups meeting up which are now back in place with the rule of 6. We were going into a rather nice summer and spent quite a lot of time outside.
My tentative conclusion is that no matter how much we want, need, to get things back to normal masks are just not cutting it. Bars and restaurants have tried (for the most part) to comply with conditions but it just hasn't worked. We need to close them again. And gyms. And stop those selfish idiots who think that they have the right to go on holiday pandemic or no.
Schools and Universities is the tough one. My son's exams were messed up and devalued this year. I really, really don't want a repeat. But I can't help feeling that the return of hundreds of thousands of students to their place of study is going to greatly accelerate our new infection rates over the next month. If I am right what will people think in late October, especially if the lagging death rate starts to catch up again? I am deeply apprehensive.
I think that Rishi Meal Deals will prove to have been a massive own goal.
I was reluctantly coming to that conclusion myself. A victim of its own success, perhaps.
Comments
Similarly in 2000 New Labour desperately wanted Gore to win but when Bush won Blair managed to famously build a great relationship with him.
However it is more a policy issue with Biden specifically regarding no border in the Irish Sea and a FTA
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
The UK, not a fcuked up weird place in the slightest.
The US is a superpower so has different priorities ie containing China in particular.
Biden it should also be pointed out is a friend of Neil Kinnock, no surprise after he plagiarised one of his speeches, so that will help rebuild the relationship between Starmer Labour and the Biden Democrats
Brexiteers have grasped this concept, hence the talk in recent years of joining the CPTPP.
Remainers still think Europe is the whole world. Glad you are coming around to our way of thinking.
Macron is an énarque, trained in the art of national administration in an academy founded for that specific purpose, which generates a governing elite far narrower than Oxbridge does. Cases are out of control in France too...
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306496397529751552
Johnson like Trump I’m afraid, demeans the office.
Who could have foreseen that?
https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1306521021768327168?s=20
https://twitter.com/Alan_McGuinness/status/1306521989864132613
Boris cannot be bothered even to understand his own official pronouncements. His musing that the rule of six really meant sixty at an Animal House party, for instance, is strikingly similar to his early presser where he dutifully recited the lockdown rules but then added he was looking forward to seeing his dear old mum on Mothers Day.
Has there been another prime minister like this? I cannot think of one.
White supremacists are not a majority of Americans.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1306447137908105222?s=20
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
To them, people like Kasich were quite willing to sell out American jobs to China for the sake of big business and would do nothing to protect American values being trampled by the likes of Antifa / BLM.
What @Casino_Royale said was right. Many will hold their noses because they feel like they need someone prepared to slug it out and not back down to protect what they cherish.
If Trump is re elected however I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama
Clinton got 61.7% in California. For Biden to be even a point down there means he's not piling up votes in safe Blue states.
Leave.EU is Faragist not Conservative and have always been pro-Trump.
And you pretend to not like Trump. Why bother pretending?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/16/adverse-reaction-oxford-vaccine-may-not-have-caused-jab/
That poll also suggests the GOP will re-capture a number of House seats in CA this time round.
Reads story
Lo, it was Kenny MacAskill.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54186359
I'm going into semi-lockdown as of midnight.
Further evidence of the complete redundancy of the tag 'globalist' for credulous idiots. Trump is a full-on supporter of globalist financialisation, and many of the leading Brexiters are, financially and ideoligically speaking, ultra-globalists.
Constitutionally if he cannot run he cannot be on the ballot in 2024
Wait, other countries are having serious issues because of the pandemic? No way!
I don't think we really have a good read on the scale of the migrations that have happened this year.
https://leave.eu/full-text-jacob-rees-moggs-brexit-speech/
1. Those who really liked him.
2. Those who always vote Republican.
3. Those who were dubious about him but thought him worth a go.
I think he keeps all of (1) but loses a few % of both (2) and (3).
Which puts him right behind the eight ball.
'No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.'
It does not matter how conservative a judge is they are not going to ignore one of the main parts of the Constitution like that, SC judges argue about the scope of the constitution and amendments, they do not argue the constitution and its amendments do not exist at all
WH2020 betting: The best odds on Biden are the in the national markets - Trump punters should go for Michigan or Wisconsin
Are idiots to blame for a second wave?
Predicted answer: Yes 90% No 5% (because we are idiots) D/K 5% (because we are idiots)
Have the government actively encouraged idiots to generate a second wave with their Go out and get blind drunk, to help out policy?
'Oh, no reason..'
https://twitter.com/susie_dent/status/1306533390246608897?s=20
If Trump wins as VP Pence will likely be the 2024 GOP nominee, even if Trump loses Pence will also likely be the nominee eg Carter's VP Mondale was the 1984 Democratic nominee after Carter lost his re election battle in 1980
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1294045129834213382?s=20
But competent vs. incompetent leadership does make a difference at the margin. Downing St is perhaps a playpen, compared to the dumpster fire in the White House.