A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
If and when a second lockdown is announced, assuming by Johnson, he will announce it with apology, inadvertent caveats, and to soften the blow a positive grand scheme at the end of the rainbow.
Johnson will not present a second lockdown as being either his wish or as a life or death imperative, just a tiresome task that has been forced on him. We need serious, angry face, instead we will as usual get the chipper clown.
For us in the NE it starts tomorrow and there’s been no real leadership, explanation, or communication as of yet. Just vastly shared Facebook posts from the local media.
I’m driving south this evening to stay at my Dad’s in Coventry. I assume this is allowed, well it is at the time of writing anyway.
If the old bill stop you, you could say you have booked a Covid test and Coventry is the most local testing centre to NE England at present. Plod will let you on your way in no time!
I'm so old that I remember when you needed to have an eye test in order to drive around the country with abandon.
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Why is it obvious
Experience of the last month or two, fatigue and the forthcoming wildly mixed message from Johnson. If you don't believe my last point, can I refer you back to last week's 'moonshot speech' from Johnson.
Strangely China confirmed yesterday they could provide moonshot testing for the UK
@Big_G_NorthWales if the system lets people get tests who shouldn’t have them, then the level of triaging built into the system is not enough.
That’s still the system’s fault and thus the Government. It sounds, although @kamski may correct me if I’m wrong that in Germany you have to go through a hospital or your GP for triage first. That sounds much more sensible if they need to be rationed.
Either way this is a direct consequence of “Cummings knows best”.
On R4 this morning, prof Tim Spector who devised the "Covid symptom tracker app" which 1.5m people have downloaded. He was one who picked up the loss of taste and smell as Covid symptoms early in the pandemic. He now reports that before the standard symptoms appear infected people typically report severe headaches and tiredness/fatigue; further, he says that without these early symptoms people are unlikely to have Covid. At the moment ~98% of tests are negative. Spector says that if you have a runny nose or congestion or sneezing you almost surely do not have Covid.
Get pissed stay up all night, next day Covid symptoms.
Yup, hangover symptoms are more likely confused with Covid than the sniffles. But you probably know that you were on a bender last night so your prior likelihood of misery due to Covid should be very low.
I am not sure, everyone at the pub last night is experiencing the same Covid symptoms this morning. One bloke who’s been out at the pub all week is worst hit.
On R4 this morning, prof Tim Spector who devised the "Covid symptom tracker app" which 1.5m people have downloaded. He was one who picked up the loss of taste and smell as Covid symptoms early in the pandemic. He now reports that before the standard symptoms appear infected people typically report severe headaches and tiredness/fatigue; further, he says that without these early symptoms people are unlikely to have Covid. At the moment ~98% of tests are negative. Spector says that if you have a runny nose or congestion or sneezing you almost surely do not have Covid.
Get pissed stay up all night, next day Covid symptoms.
I don't know why the Government isn't making more noise about the sneezing issue. If you have sneezing then it's not covid as I understand things.
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Why is it obvious
From the thousands of comments on Facebook discussing the new NE lockdown, it’s obvious people have had enough. Even from those who were previously very supportive.
It is fair to say most everyone has more than enough but that does not excuse behaviour that continues and depends this crisis
I was born during the war and that went on for 5 years and most everyone had had enough after day one of being bombed
Some of the lockdown restrictions are more severe than in ww2. All the pubs, schools and entertainment didn’t close as far as I know. You could still go to work.
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Why is it obvious
Because people have much less faith that the government knows what it is doing, and the government is unable to maintain a consistent line on anything for more than a few days at a time.
Covid is not consistent and is stretching governments across the globe
On R4 this morning, prof Tim Spector who devised the "Covid symptom tracker app" which 1.5m people have downloaded. He was one who picked up the loss of taste and smell as Covid symptoms early in the pandemic. He now reports that before the standard symptoms appear infected people typically report severe headaches and tiredness/fatigue; further, he says that without these early symptoms people are unlikely to have Covid. At the moment ~98% of tests are negative. Spector says that if you have a runny nose or congestion or sneezing you almost surely do not have Covid.
Get pissed stay up all night, next day Covid symptoms.
Lol, that was how I got my test before I left the UK, without having to tell any lies. I was particularly tired and had a bad headache, both for reasons I well understood, but reporting those honestly together with the priority that prof. spector’s panellists get was sufficient to get the test. Now I see why.
The strength of his App is that he gets everyone to report whatever symptoms they might have, and is then able to cross-correlate these with any subsequent positive test results. I’ve been doing it from the start and have been offered three tests, soon after reporting being off colour. The first two I let pass as there didn’t seem any point in tying up resources.
So Boris has said he will do everything to avoid a second lockdown.
So that’s a second lockdown nailed on then.
He seems to live in a fantasy world where saying is enough and doing entirely superfluous.
I am still reeling from Johnson's dialogue with Benn yesterday. Johnson asserting Europe were negotiating in 'bad faith' only to be challenged by Benn. Johnson (I guess to his credit) immediately held his hands up, confirming he had just lied, retorting 'I may of course be mistaken' or words to that effect.
No one has really made much of it, but essentially he has 'lied' to a Parliamentary Committee and owned up to it in the next breath.
Politicians lie, they always have and they always will. However, I can't recall seeing or hearing, from a Parish Councillor to a Prime Minister, falsehoods so brazenly tripping off the tongue, as they do when Johnson opens his mouth. His default appears to be bullshit, and only when he has thought about what he has just said does he row back on it.
As i said below, Johnson just seems to have made up his own definition of "negotiating in good faith", which conveniently fits in with any scenario where the end point is no deal. Basically he is framing it as:
The EU are acting in bad faith and don't genuinely want a deal (so are putting obstacles in the place of getting one*). The UK does want a deal**. If the outcome is no deal then that will prove he is right and he will be able to say that he wasn't mistaken in what he is saying.
Basically no deal on Jan 1st proves the EU were not acting in good faith (and allows breaking of the Withdrawal Agreement).
*aka, won't agree to all UK demands or agree to suspend obligations on UK as a country external to the EU **even though they claim to be 'relaxed' about the alternative
On R4 this morning, prof Tim Spector who devised the "Covid symptom tracker app" which 1.5m people have downloaded. He was one who picked up the loss of taste and smell as Covid symptoms early in the pandemic. He now reports that before the standard symptoms appear infected people typically report severe headaches and tiredness/fatigue; further, he says that without these early symptoms people are unlikely to have Covid. At the moment ~98% of tests are negative. Spector says that if you have a runny nose or congestion or sneezing you almost surely do not have Covid.
Get pissed stay up all night, next day Covid symptoms.
Yup, hangover symptoms are more likely confused with Covid than the sniffles. But you probably know that you were on a bender last night so your prior likelihood of misery due to Covid should be very low.
I am not sure, everyone at the pub last night is experiencing the same Covid symptoms this morning. One bloke who’s been out at the pub all week is worst hit.
Hangovers are probably correlated with hypochondria.
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Why is it obvious
Experience of the last month or two, fatigue and the forthcoming wildly mixed message from Johnson. If you don't believe my last point, can I refer you back to last week's 'moonshot speech' from Johnson.
Strangely China confirmed yesterday they could provide moonshot testing for the UK
The Chinese want one hundred billion quid. Who knew? I expect they’re too late anyway. Surely G4S, Capita who some other of the governments usual suspects will have won the contract.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
May would have done better. Cameron would have done better. Brown would have done better. Blair would have done better. Major would have done better. Thatcher would have done better. Callaghan would have done better Wilson would have done better. Heath would have done better.
That is just your political bias
The Covid pandemic is a poisoned chalice challenge that anyone would struggle with. Johnson is particularly I'll suited to manage our way out of it because he can't stand being the bearer of bad news. So when he is forced to crack the whip, he does so in such a half-hearted apologetic manner the message is mixed. He is also indecisive. He follows the positive position until it takes him up a cul-de-sac and he is, often too late, forced to change direction.
So let me ask a different question. Why did the incidence of the disease fall so consistently from May to late July to very low levels? What were we doing right that we are not doing now?
We were not wearing anything like the same number of masks so that should be an improvement. We were not doing anything like the same number of tests but of those that we did the percentage of positives was on a downward trend, now reversed. We did have more lockdown provisions in place, especially for restaurants and bars. We basically closed educational institutes, both schools and Universities. We had less travel. We had restrictions on groups meeting up which are now back in place with the rule of 6. We were going into a rather nice summer and spent quite a lot of time outside.
My tentative conclusion is that no matter how much we want, need, to get things back to normal masks are just not cutting it. Bars and restaurants have tried (for the most part) to comply with conditions but it just hasn't worked. We need to close them again. And gyms. And stop those selfish idiots who think that they have the right to go on holiday pandemic or no.
Schools and Universities is the tough one. My son's exams were messed up and devalued this year. I really, really don't want a repeat. But I can't help feeling that the return of hundreds of thousands of students to their place of study is going to greatly accelerate our new infection rates over the next month. If I am right what will people think in late October, especially if the lagging death rate starts to catch up again? I am deeply apprehensive.
So Boris has said he will do everything to avoid a second lockdown.
So that’s a second lockdown nailed on then.
He seems to live in a fantasy world where saying is enough and doing entirely superfluous.
I am still reeling from Johnson's dialogue with Benn yesterday. Johnson asserting Europe were negotiating in 'bad faith' only to be challenged by Benn. Johnson (I guess to his credit) immediately held his hands up, confirming he had just lied, retorting 'I may of course be mistaken' or words to that effect.
No one has really made much of it, but essentially he has 'lied' to a Parliamentary Committee and owned up to it in the next breath.
Politicians lie, they always have and they always will. However, I can't recall seeing or hearing, from a Parish Councillor to a Prime Minister, falsehoods so brazenly tripping off the tongue, as they do when Johnson opens his mouth. His default appears to be bullshit, and only when he has thought about what he has just said does he row back on it.
As i said below, Johnson just seems to have made up his own definition of "negotiating in good faith", which conveniently fits in with any scenario where the end point is no deal. Basically he is framing it as:
The EU are acting in bad faith and don't genuinely want a deal (so are putting obstacles in the place of getting one*). The UK does want a deal**. If the outcome is no deal then that will prove he is right and he will be able to say that he wasn't mistaken in what he is saying.
Basically no deal on Jan 1st proves the EU were not acting in good faith (and allows breaking of the Withdrawal Agreement).
*aka, won't agree to all UK demands or agree to suspend obligations on UK as a country external to the EU **even though they claim to be 'relaxed' about the alternative
The UK's "demands" are to be treated the same as any other sovereign country. Refusing to do that is bad faith.
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Why is it obvious
From the thousands of comments on Facebook discussing the new NE lockdown, it’s obvious people have had enough. Even from those who were previously very supportive.
It is fair to say most everyone has more than enough but that does not excuse behaviour that continues and depends this crisis
I was born during the war and that went on for 5 years and most everyone had had enough after day one of being bombed
Some of the lockdown restrictions are more severe than in ww2. All the pubs, schools and entertainment didn’t close as far as I know. You could still go to work.
Agreed but the fear and distress was ever present
Far more relevant is 68-69 'Hong Kong' flu pandemic. My parents tell me life in this country went on as normal, with everyone 'worried' but just got on with things. I was too young to really remember it now.
@Big_G_NorthWales if the system lets people get tests who shouldn’t have them, then the level of triaging built into the system is not enough.
That’s still the system’s fault and thus the Government. It sounds, although @kamski may correct me if I’m wrong that in Germany you have to go through a hospital or your GP for triage first. That sounds much more sensible if they need to be rationed.
Either way this is a direct consequence of “Cummings knows best”.
I agree about the level of triaging and no doubt Hancock will announce some controls on who qualifies for a test in the next few days
On 5 live this morning it was said that over 100,000 tests have been reserved for care homes use only
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Why is it obvious
Experience of the last month or two, fatigue and the forthcoming wildly mixed message from Johnson. If you don't believe my last point, can I refer you back to last week's 'moonshot speech' from Johnson.
Strangely China confirmed yesterday they could provide moonshot testing for the UK
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Why is it obvious
From the thousands of comments on Facebook discussing the new NE lockdown, it’s obvious people have had enough. Even from those who were previously very supportive.
It is fair to say most everyone has more than enough but that does not excuse behaviour that continues and depends this crisis
I was born during the war and that went on for 5 years and most everyone had had enough after day one of being bombed
Some of the lockdown restrictions are more severe than in ww2. All the pubs, schools and entertainment didn’t close as far as I know. You could still go to work.
Still, we haven't all been conscripted yet, only to be shot down over Dresden.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
To be fair this does, at least in part anecdotally, seem to be due on occasion to schools not following the clear guidance on Covid symptoms. If a school insists that a child with a simple runny nose (not a Covid symptom) must go home, then it is understandable that a parent will turn to the only course available to them to allow them back ie. a negative test result. It is clearly a problem when the motivation of so many of the tests is not because people suspect they have the virus and want confirmation, but specifically because they don't think they have it but need to prove it (to get their kids back to school)
The virtues the Red Tories most extol are, according to Populus, strength, honesty and loyalty, which are hardly the three attributes of this chimerical Prime Minister. In 1970, Milton Friedman offered an important rider to his advocacy of market freedom. The seeking of profit must stay “within the rules of the game”. How strange that a Conservative Prime Minister, and the 340 feeble MPs who voted for the Internal Market Bill, should need to be taught such an elementary lesson. They will learn it eventually, if not yet.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
May would have done better. Cameron would have done better. Brown would have done better. Blair would have done better. Major would have done better. Thatcher would have done better. Callaghan would have done better Wilson would have done better. Heath would have done better.
That is just your political bias
The Covid pandemic is a poisoned chalice challenge that anyone would struggle with. Johnson is particularly I'll suited to manage our way out of it because he can't stand being the bearer of bad news. So when he is forced to crack the whip, he does so in such a half-hearted apologetic manner the message is mixed. He is also indecisive. He follows the positive position until it takes him up a cul-de-sac and he is, often too late, forced to change direction.
Boris makes many mistakes. The worst is hypocrisy, one rule for his gang and another for the rest of us. His inability to reconcile rhetoric with reality is another failure. If his promises and statements were true, we would live in quite a different world. Then you have the total inability to get basics right or to administer anything. The exam debacle was foreseen and avoidable. When things go wrong he gets defensive, blames everyone else and stirs up political trouble. He continues to actively divide this nation for his personal political ends. Trying to deliver Brexit in the middle of the pandemic as if nothing had happened is insane.
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Why is it obvious
From the thousands of comments on Facebook discussing the new NE lockdown, it’s obvious people have had enough. Even from those who were previously very supportive.
It is fair to say most everyone has more than enough but that does not excuse behaviour that continues and depends this crisis
I was born during the war and that went on for 5 years and most everyone had had enough after day one of being bombed
Some of the lockdown restrictions are more severe than in ww2. All the pubs, schools and entertainment didn’t close as far as I know. You could still go to work.
Agreed but the fear and distress was ever present
Far more relevant is 68-69 'Hong Kong' flu pandemic. My parents tell me life in this country went on as normal, with everyone 'worried' but just got on with things. I was too young to really remember it now.
It hardly registered. I was a postgrad at the time.
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Why is it obvious
Experience of the last month or two, fatigue and the forthcoming wildly mixed message from Johnson. If you don't believe my last point, can I refer you back to last week's 'moonshot speech' from Johnson.
Strangely China confirmed yesterday they could provide moonshot testing for the UK
As I’ve tried to explain, Big_G, the ‘moonshot’ rhetoric is simply nonsense. There are a significant number of different testing processes which might provide cheap, rapid mass testing, already developed.
It’s not particularly strange that China might also gave the capability. After all, they were using pooled testing to test the entire population of Wuhan back in early June.
Your conviction that this administration could not have done better is simply your establishment bias.
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Why is it obvious
Experience of the last month or two, fatigue and the forthcoming wildly mixed message from Johnson. If you don't believe my last point, can I refer you back to last week's 'moonshot speech' from Johnson.
Strangely China confirmed yesterday they could provide moonshot testing for the UK
That’s even further to go than the government is currently offering.
Tbh there's an easy way to filter testing, give everyone a temperature check on arrival and only test those who have a high temperature. Everyone else gets sent home to isolate.
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Why is it obvious
Experience of the last month or two, fatigue and the forthcoming wildly mixed message from Johnson. If you don't believe my last point, can I refer you back to last week's 'moonshot speech' from Johnson.
Strangely China confirmed yesterday they could provide moonshot testing for the UK
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Why is it obvious
Experience of the last month or two, fatigue and the forthcoming wildly mixed message from Johnson. If you don't believe my last point, can I refer you back to last week's 'moonshot speech' from Johnson.
Strangely China confirmed yesterday they could provide moonshot testing for the UK
The Chinese want one hundred billion quid. Who knew? I expect they’re too late anyway. Surely G4S, Capita who some other of the governments usual suspects will have won the contract.
Do you have a source confirming the cost required by China and that it's too late
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
To be fair this does, at least in part anecdotally, seem to be due on occasion to schools not following the clear guidance on Covid symptoms. If a school insists that a child with a simple runny nose (not a Covid symptom) must go home, then it is understandable that a parent will turn to the only course available to them to allow them back ie. a negative test result. It is clearly a problem when the motivation of so many of the tests is not because people suspect they have the virus and want confirmation, but specifically because they don't think they have it but need to prove it (to get their kids back to school)
Agreed, a friend came up against this exact situation. He just took his daughter back to school and refused to have her come home because of a few sniffles and runny nose. It helps that he's a doctor and the headteacher found it impossible to argue with his medical expertise.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
"And that is the issue in the UK."
Possibly, but I know quite a few people locally who have had tests just because of having normal cold symptoms. Yet the system (or systems - it is very decentralised) seems to be working ok. It's strange, because the UK seems to be doing a lot of tests - maybe more than Germany which has a significantly larger population. Although I can't find any up-to-date national test numbers for Germany, and the UK test numbers have been as dodgy as hell ever since the government started making up numbers so they could pretend to have hit the infamous 100,000 target.
It may also be that there is more demand for tests in the UK because there are more cases, it's hard to tell.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
May would have done better. Cameron would have done better. Brown would have done better. Blair would have done better. Major would have done better. Thatcher would have done better. Callaghan would have done better Wilson would have done better. Heath would have done better.
That is just your political bias
The Covid pandemic is a poisoned chalice challenge that anyone would struggle with. Johnson is particularly I'll suited to manage our way out of it because he can't stand being the bearer of bad news. So when he is forced to crack the whip, he does so in such a half-hearted apologetic manner the message is mixed. He is also indecisive. He follows the positive position until it takes him up a cul-de-sac and he is, often too late, forced to change direction.
So let me ask a different question. Why did the incidence of the disease fall so consistently from May to late July to very low levels? What were we doing right that we are not doing now?
We were not wearing anything like the same number of masks so that should be an improvement. We were not doing anything like the same number of tests but of those that we did the percentage of positives was on a downward trend, now reversed. We did have more lockdown provisions in place, especially for restaurants and bars. We basically closed educational institutes, both schools and Universities. We had less travel. We had restrictions on groups meeting up which are now back in place with the rule of 6. We were going into a rather nice summer and spent quite a lot of time outside.
My tentative conclusion is that no matter how much we want, need, to get things back to normal masks are just not cutting it. Bars and restaurants have tried (for the most part) to comply with conditions but it just hasn't worked. We need to close them again. And gyms. And stop those selfish idiots who think that they have the right to go on holiday pandemic or no.
Schools and Universities is the tough one. My son's exams were messed up and devalued this year. I really, really don't want a repeat. But I can't help feeling that the return of hundreds of thousands of students to their place of study is going to greatly accelerate our new infection rates over the next month. If I am right what will people think in late October, especially if the lagging death rate starts to catch up again? I am deeply apprehensive.
I think you also have to recognise that restrictions on how bars and restaurants operate, and the injunction to wear masks, are widely flouted in some places as much as they are widely observed in others.
Don’t forget that employers are demanding negative test results after sending people home for any covid like symptoms (or otherwise). That means without a test employees are missing out on being paid in some cases. My girlfriend’s employer (the NHS I might add) still demanded a negative test before being allowed back at work, despite her gp diagnosing her with a bacterial infection!
People have been told there are plenty of tests and are acting accordingly. This is again a messaging issue.
"This would be hugely regrettable [Lockdown 2.0], and Johnson needs to realise that failing to fix testing is now the biggest single threat to his legacy."
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Why is it obvious
Experience of the last month or two, fatigue and the forthcoming wildly mixed message from Johnson. If you don't believe my last point, can I refer you back to last week's 'moonshot speech' from Johnson.
Strangely China confirmed yesterday they could provide moonshot testing for the UK
That’s even further to go than the government is currently offering.
Tbh there's an easy way to filter testing, give everyone a temperature check on arrival and only test those who have a high temperature. Everyone else gets sent home to isolate.
So far two of the hotels I have stayed at have tested temperature at check in. Quite what happens if it registered high, I don’t know.
Tbh there's an easy way to filter testing, give everyone a temperature check on arrival and only test those who have a high temperature. Everyone else gets sent home to isolate.
What about people who will have to miss out on being paid whilst waiting for test? Its all very well and good saying that from a position of being salaried and getting full sick pay from day 1.
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Why is it obvious
Experience of the last month or two, fatigue and the forthcoming wildly mixed message from Johnson. If you don't believe my last point, can I refer you back to last week's 'moonshot speech' from Johnson.
Strangely China confirmed yesterday they could provide moonshot testing for the UK
As I’ve tried to explain, Big_G, the ‘moonshot’ rhetoric is simply nonsense. There are a significant number of different testing processes which might provide cheap, rapid mass testing, already developed.
It’s not particularly strange that China might also gave the capability. After all, they were using pooled testing to test the entire population of Wuhan back in early June.
Your conviction that this administration could not have done better is simply your establishment bias.
I greatly respect your views on this and looking across our politics today I do not see any titans who would have done any better
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Why is it obvious
Experience of the last month or two, fatigue and the forthcoming wildly mixed message from Johnson. If you don't believe my last point, can I refer you back to last week's 'moonshot speech' from Johnson.
Strangely China confirmed yesterday they could provide moonshot testing for the UK
That’s even further to go than the government is currently offering.
Tbh there's an easy way to filter testing, give everyone a temperature check on arrival and only test those who have a high temperature. Everyone else gets sent home to isolate.
So far two of the hotels I have stayed at have tested temperature at check in. Quite what happens if it registered high, I don’t know.
They release the hounds,
But don’t worry. Since the hounds are socially distanced and wearing face masks their barks is worse than their bite.
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Why is it obvious
Experience of the last month or two, fatigue and the forthcoming wildly mixed message from Johnson. If you don't believe my last point, can I refer you back to last week's 'moonshot speech' from Johnson.
Strangely China confirmed yesterday they could provide moonshot testing for the UK
That’s even further to go than the government is currently offering.
Tbh there's an easy way to filter testing, give everyone a temperature check on arrival and only test those who have a high temperature. Everyone else gets sent home to isolate.
So far two of the hotels I have stayed at have tested temperature at check in. Quite what happens if it registered high, I don’t know.
On the way back from Naples I saw what happened, a passenger failed the temperature check and was taken away by men in hazmat suits. I asked what happened and the woman at the desk said they would take him for an on-site test and he'd be able to fly the next day of it came out negative, if not then he'd be stuck in Naples for 7 days before a second test.
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Why is it obvious
Experience of the last month or two, fatigue and the forthcoming wildly mixed message from Johnson. If you don't believe my last point, can I refer you back to last week's 'moonshot speech' from Johnson.
Strangely China confirmed yesterday they could provide moonshot testing for the UK
As I’ve tried to explain, Big_G, the ‘moonshot’ rhetoric is simply nonsense. There are a significant number of different testing processes which might provide cheap, rapid mass testing, already developed.
It’s not particularly strange that China might also gave the capability. After all, they were using pooled testing to test the entire population of Wuhan back in early June.
Your conviction that this administration could not have done better is simply your establishment bias.
I greatly respect your views on this and looking across our politics today I do not see any titans who would have done any better
Is that partly because Boris sacked the competent Tories? Too much of a threat. Hunt is a backbencher. He would have done a better job.
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Why is it obvious
Experience of the last month or two, fatigue and the forthcoming wildly mixed message from Johnson. If you don't believe my last point, can I refer you back to last week's 'moonshot speech' from Johnson.
Strangely China confirmed yesterday they could provide moonshot testing for the UK
The Chinese want one hundred billion quid. Who knew? I expect they’re too late anyway. Surely G4S, Capita who some other of the governments usual suspects will have won the contract.
Do you have a source confirming the cost required by China and that it's too late
LOL. The ‘cost’ is simply Johnson’s ridiculous figure being thrown back at him.
So let me ask a different question. Why did the incidence of the disease fall so consistently from May to late July to very low levels? What were we doing right that we are not doing now?
We were not wearing anything like the same number of masks so that should be an improvement. We were not doing anything like the same number of tests but of those that we did the percentage of positives was on a downward trend, now reversed. We did have more lockdown provisions in place, especially for restaurants and bars. We basically closed educational institutes, both schools and Universities. We had less travel. We had restrictions on groups meeting up which are now back in place with the rule of 6. We were going into a rather nice summer and spent quite a lot of time outside.
My tentative conclusion is that no matter how much we want, need, to get things back to normal masks are just not cutting it. Bars and restaurants have tried (for the most part) to comply with conditions but it just hasn't worked. We need to close them again. And gyms. And stop those selfish idiots who think that they have the right to go on holiday pandemic or no.
Schools and Universities is the tough one. My son's exams were messed up and devalued this year. I really, really don't want a repeat. But I can't help feeling that the return of hundreds of thousands of students to their place of study is going to greatly accelerate our new infection rates over the next month. If I am right what will people think in late October, especially if the lagging death rate starts to catch up again? I am deeply apprehensive.
Simply the lag effect of the original lockdown.
Noting that lag has two components. Physical lag, the time between infection, symptoms, and the result of a test. And psychological lag - the time it took after restrictions were lifted for people to feel happy about resuming normal activities (for many this is still ongoing).
So let me ask a different question. Why did the incidence of the disease fall so consistently from May to late July to very low levels? What were we doing right that we are not doing now?
We were not wearing anything like the same number of masks so that should be an improvement. We were not doing anything like the same number of tests but of those that we did the percentage of positives was on a downward trend, now reversed. We did have more lockdown provisions in place, especially for restaurants and bars. We basically closed educational institutes, both schools and Universities. We had less travel. We had restrictions on groups meeting up which are now back in place with the rule of 6. We were going into a rather nice summer and spent quite a lot of time outside.
My tentative conclusion is that no matter how much we want, need, to get things back to normal masks are just not cutting it. Bars and restaurants have tried (for the most part) to comply with conditions but it just hasn't worked. We need to close them again. And gyms. And stop those selfish idiots who think that they have the right to go on holiday pandemic or no.
Schools and Universities is the tough one. My son's exams were messed up and devalued this year. I really, really don't want a repeat. But I can't help feeling that the return of hundreds of thousands of students to their place of study is going to greatly accelerate our new infection rates over the next month. If I am right what will people think in late October, especially if the lagging death rate starts to catch up again? I am deeply apprehensive.
I think you also have to recognise that restrictions on how bars and restaurants operate, and the injunction to wear masks, are widely flouted in some places as much as they are widely observed in others.
But that's inevitable. If we accept bars and restaurants being open we accept that a (hopefully small) percentage of idiots will not comply with the restrictions. It is the risk we take.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
May would have done better. Cameron would have done better. Brown would have done better. Blair would have done better. Major would have done better. Thatcher would have done better. Callaghan would have done better Wilson would have done better. Heath would have done better.
That is just your political bias
No, he's right except (possibly) about May.
And how on earth do you know that "Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms...?" You don't, and secondly it's irrelevant that symptoms are mild: mild symptoms do not imply mild illness. The narrative is Orrwellian: a huge failing state undertaking, with the failure blamed not on those in charge of it but on traitors, saboteurs, enemies of the people and Goldsteinists.
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Why is it obvious
Experience of the last month or two, fatigue and the forthcoming wildly mixed message from Johnson. If you don't believe my last point, can I refer you back to last week's 'moonshot speech' from Johnson.
Strangely China confirmed yesterday they could provide moonshot testing for the UK
That’s even further to go than the government is currently offering.
Tbh there's an easy way to filter testing, give everyone a temperature check on arrival and only test those who have a high temperature. Everyone else gets sent home to isolate.
So far two of the hotels I have stayed at have tested temperature at check in. Quite what happens if it registered high, I don’t know.
They release the hounds,
But don’t worry. Since the hounds are socially distanced and wearing face masks their barks is worse than their bite.
Wasn't there a project somewhere to get sniffer dogs trained to detect Covid? Haven't heard much about that recently.
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Why is it obvious
Experience of the last month or two, fatigue and the forthcoming wildly mixed message from Johnson. If you don't believe my last point, can I refer you back to last week's 'moonshot speech' from Johnson.
Strangely China confirmed yesterday they could provide moonshot testing for the UK
As I’ve tried to explain, Big_G, the ‘moonshot’ rhetoric is simply nonsense. There are a significant number of different testing processes which might provide cheap, rapid mass testing, already developed.
It’s not particularly strange that China might also gave the capability. After all, they were using pooled testing to test the entire population of Wuhan back in early June.
Your conviction that this administration could not have done better is simply your establishment bias.
I greatly respect your views on this and looking across our politics today I do not see any titans who would have done any better
Since it is hard to see anyone who would have done any worse, we can take it there are likely to be many who would have done better. Hunt, for a start.
Tbh there's an easy way to filter testing, give everyone a temperature check on arrival and only test those who have a high temperature. Everyone else gets sent home to isolate.
What about people who will have to miss out on being paid whilst waiting for test? Its all very well and good saying that from a position of being salaried and getting full sick pay from day 1.
It sucks but we are in a pandemic.
I'd rather lose a week's wages than die.
Clinical need must come first, tests for people to go to work are good to have but must be bottom priority.
Tbh there's an easy way to filter testing, give everyone a temperature check on arrival and only test those who have a high temperature. Everyone else gets sent home to isolate.
What about people who will have to miss out on being paid whilst waiting for test? Its all very well and good saying that from a position of being salaried and getting full sick pay from day 1.
Make it the law that you can't stop people working unless they have a high temperature and at least one other major symptom or they have been contacted by the track and trace team. At the moment people are being sent home for sneezing which isn't a COVID symptom. The government's lack of communication and strategy is absolutely horrible.
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Why is it obvious
Experience of the last month or two, fatigue and the forthcoming wildly mixed message from Johnson. If you don't believe my last point, can I refer you back to last week's 'moonshot speech' from Johnson.
Strangely China confirmed yesterday they could provide moonshot testing for the UK
As I’ve tried to explain, Big_G, the ‘moonshot’ rhetoric is simply nonsense. There are a significant number of different testing processes which might provide cheap, rapid mass testing, already developed.
It’s not particularly strange that China might also gave the capability. After all, they were using pooled testing to test the entire population of Wuhan back in early June.
Your conviction that this administration could not have done better is simply your establishment bias.
I greatly respect your views on this and looking across our politics today I do not see any titans who would have done any better
Possibly not, but I think it far more likely that different possibilities would have been explored under a PM who was not so determinedly ignorant on the science. And less time and effort wasted over the summer in planning for a wholesale reorganisation of public health administration by the person supposed also to be in charge of testing.
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Why is it obvious
Experience of the last month or two, fatigue and the forthcoming wildly mixed message from Johnson. If you don't believe my last point, can I refer you back to last week's 'moonshot speech' from Johnson.
Strangely China confirmed yesterday they could provide moonshot testing for the UK
That’s even further to go than the government is currently offering.
Tbh there's an easy way to filter testing, give everyone a temperature check on arrival and only test those who have a high temperature. Everyone else gets sent home to isolate.
So far two of the hotels I have stayed at have tested temperature at check in. Quite what happens if it registered high, I don’t know.
On the way back from Naples I saw what happened, a passenger failed the temperature check and was taken away by men in hazmat suits. I asked what happened and the woman at the desk said they would take him for an on-site test and he'd be able to fly the next day of it came out negative, if not then he'd be stuck in Naples for 7 days before a second test.
I doubt hotels would be able to do that. My guess is that they would either turn you away, or insist you stayed in isolation while somehow they summoned up a test.
Tbh there's an easy way to filter testing, give everyone a temperature check on arrival and only test those who have a high temperature. Everyone else gets sent home to isolate.
What about people who will have to miss out on being paid whilst waiting for test? Its all very well and good saying that from a position of being salaried and getting full sick pay from day 1.
Make it the law that you can't stop people working unless they have a high temperature and at least one other major symptom or they have been contacted by the track and trace team. At the moment people are being sent home for sneezing which isn't a COVID symptom. The government's lack of communication and strategy is absolutely horrible.
That sounds more sensible than saying people should just “suck it up” as Philip suggests. Employers need to be at least told not to lean on the testing system and to trust GPs.
Don’t forget that employers are demanding negative test results after sending people home for any covid like symptoms (or otherwise). That means without a test employees are missing out on being paid in some cases. My girlfriend’s employer (the NHS I might add) still demanded a negative test before being allowed back at work, despite her gp diagnosing her with a bacterial infection!
People have been told there are plenty of tests and are acting accordingly. This is again a messaging issue.
That's what boosterism leads to. Tell folk it's world beating and guess what?
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
May would have done better. Cameron would have done better. Brown would have done better. Blair would have done better. Major would have done better. Thatcher would have done better. Callaghan would have done better Wilson would have done better. Heath would have done better.
That is just your political bias
The Covid pandemic is a poisoned chalice challenge that anyone would struggle with. Johnson is particularly I'll suited to manage our way out of it because he can't stand being the bearer of bad news. So when he is forced to crack the whip, he does so in such a half-hearted apologetic manner the message is mixed. He is also indecisive. He follows the positive position until it takes him up a cul-de-sac and he is, often too late, forced to change direction.
Boris makes many mistakes. The worst is hypocrisy, one rule for his gang and another for the rest of us. His inability to reconcile rhetoric with reality is another failure. If his promises and statements were true, we would live in quite a different world. Then you have the total inability to get basics right or to administer anything. The exam debacle was foreseen and avoidable. When things go wrong he gets defensive, blames everyone else and stirs up political trouble. He continues to actively divide this nation for his personal political ends. Trying to deliver Brexit in the middle of the pandemic as if nothing had happened is insane.
Agreed. The diversionary tactics he adopts are particularly cynical. Using self-manufactured 'good' Brexit news to divert from bad pandemic news and vice versa.
Why can't he just get on with the jobs in hand and jettison all the tomfoolery?
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
May would have done better. Cameron would have done better. Brown would have done better. Blair would have done better. Major would have done better. Thatcher would have done better. Callaghan would have done better Wilson would have done better. Heath would have done better.
That is just your political bias
Looking at that list I'd have to say Johnson appears the least suited to the task. Thatcher would have been brilliant, but then she was a scientist and people trusted her.
A lot of global political leaders have enhanced their reputation but some have suffered. Trump has done particularly badly. Johnson started well but fell away badly after the Cummings fiasco and it's got worse since.
Why is Spain faring so much worse than countries like Italy ? The increase in cases and deaths in Spain looks ominous, and highly reminiscent of last time, and yet countries like Italy and Austria, near the epicentre of the disease last time, seem to be going on roughly as normal relative to the last few months.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
"And that is the issue in the UK."
Possibly, but I know quite a few people locally who have had tests just because of having normal cold symptoms. Yet the system (or systems - it is very decentralised) seems to be working ok. It's strange, because the UK seems to be doing a lot of tests - maybe more than Germany which has a significantly larger population. Although I can't find any up-to-date national test numbers for Germany, and the UK test numbers have been as dodgy as hell ever since the government started making up numbers so they could pretend to have hit the infamous 100,000 target.
It may also be that there is more demand for tests in the UK because there are more cases, it's hard to tell.
- The phenomenon where usage of a resource expands to use 100% of the available resource is a standard in Operational Research.
- The UK, made it very, very easy to get a test. So more and more people asked for tests. About 5 days ago, this demand jumped around 40K - which used up the current spare capacity.
- The ONS infection survey says that there are not vast amounts of hidden cases.
- The symptoms of just about every disease* start with the "A bit like the flu".
Why is Spain faring so much worse than countries like Italy ? The increase in cases and deaths in Spain looks ominous, and highly reminiscent of last time, and yet countries like Italy and Austria, near the epicentre of the disease last time, seem to be going on roughly as normal.
What is going on, I wonder.
I've been to Italy twice since this all happened and basically it's because Italy seems to take mask wearing more seriously and they haven't opened up nightclubs and late night bars.
Maybe there should be a separate testing system for employees that has to be paid for by employers. Would certainly focus minds although I can imagine employees would be told to use the normal system.
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Why is it obvious
Experience of the last month or two, fatigue and the forthcoming wildly mixed message from Johnson. If you don't believe my last point, can I refer you back to last week's 'moonshot speech' from Johnson.
Strangely China confirmed yesterday they could provide moonshot testing for the UK
As I’ve tried to explain, Big_G, the ‘moonshot’ rhetoric is simply nonsense. There are a significant number of different testing processes which might provide cheap, rapid mass testing, already developed.
It’s not particularly strange that China might also gave the capability. After all, they were using pooled testing to test the entire population of Wuhan back in early June.
Your conviction that this administration could not have done better is simply your establishment bias.
I greatly respect your views on this and looking across our politics today I do not see any titans who would have done any better
Is that partly because Boris sacked the competent Tories? Too much of a threat. Hunt is a backbencher. He would have done a better job.
I do not disagree about Hunt but this crisis is overwhelming governments across the globe
One aspect of American opinion concerning Northern Ireland, which British people find it hard to understand (like we find it hard to make heads or tails of cricket) is that MANY Americans who are NOT of Irish Catholic heritage, or are multiple generations removed from the Emerald Isle, have a strong affinity for Celtic Ireland.
Why? Because for starters, there are many millions of Americans all across the country who are aware they have some Irish heritage. Most of these are descendants of Scots Irish, but relatively few of these folks identify with Irish Protestants, who from our perspective often seem to reject their Irishness. Instead, we're far more likely to gravitate to Celtic Ireland, because THAT is what we want AND expect from the Irish - song, wit, sentiment, booze & blarney.
What most Americans - including most Irish Americans - actually know about Ireland can be stored in a thimble. We know that the Brits beat up on the Irish, and that the Irish fought back. We know the Catholics don't get along with the Protestants, and visa versa, though it mystifies us why that is. And that's about it.
Nevertheless, St Patrick's Day ranks with Valentine's Day as our most popular non-paid holiday, enjoyed or at least recognized in some fashion by about 95% of the population, ranging from barrooms overflowing with green beer, to school kids pinching each other (esp cute girls you'd like to know better) for NOT wearing green.
Another factor is the wide popularity of Celtic music, including Irish and also Scots (but little Welsh) contemporary music. In general, instrumentals, traditionals & non-politicals are favored. Though "Kevin Barry" and "The Foggy Dew" will be appreciated - certainly far more than "Croppies Lie Down" or anything else stronger than "The Old Orange Flute" to which even a Cardinal couldn't take (reasonable) exception.
Also think America's Irish affinity is an echo of our late 18th, 19th and early 20th century Anglophobia. A time when even Know Nothings and other nativists who feared and disdained Irish immigrants were rarely pro-British. For many - and many more who were NOT nativistic, or leastways not much - blamed the British for driving the Irish to these shores with oppression and starvation. Note that we've NEVER had a beef with the Scots or Welsh, or even the Manx or Cornish - it's the ENGLISH who were the problem.
Took World Wars One & Two & esp. Winston Churchill to reduce US anti-British orientation, along with the fall of the Empire (bad mostly) and the rise of the Commonwealth (good, or at least much better). Beatles and the British Invasion that being British really became a plus for us. In the depths of our national DNA, in the backs of our collective mind, we will ALWAYS be more than a wee bit wary of our British - read that English - cousins.
The upshot is that the Special Relationship will always be more special for UK than for US.
There is certainly a lot of Irish heritage in the USA and, I suspect, understandable sympathy for the fact they too had to resort to armed rebellion to gain independence from the British.
But, I think attitudes to Irish republicanism and the Troubles became much more realistic in the last 30-40 years as the USA started to have its own serious experiences with terrorism and understood the difficult British position far more.
So let me ask a different question. Why did the incidence of the disease fall so consistently from May to late July to very low levels? What were we doing right that we are not doing now?
We were not wearing anything like the same number of masks so that should be an improvement. We were not doing anything like the same number of tests but of those that we did the percentage of positives was on a downward trend, now reversed. We did have more lockdown provisions in place, especially for restaurants and bars. We basically closed educational institutes, both schools and Universities. We had less travel. We had restrictions on groups meeting up which are now back in place with the rule of 6. We were going into a rather nice summer and spent quite a lot of time outside.
My tentative conclusion is that no matter how much we want, need, to get things back to normal masks are just not cutting it. Bars and restaurants have tried (for the most part) to comply with conditions but it just hasn't worked. We need to close them again. And gyms. And stop those selfish idiots who think that they have the right to go on holiday pandemic or no.
Schools and Universities is the tough one. My son's exams were messed up and devalued this year. I really, really don't want a repeat. But I can't help feeling that the return of hundreds of thousands of students to their place of study is going to greatly accelerate our new infection rates over the next month. If I am right what will people think in late October, especially if the lagging death rate starts to catch up again? I am deeply apprehensive.
Simply the lag effect of the original lockdown.
Noting that lag has two components. Physical lag, the time between infection, symptoms, and the result of a test. And psychological lag - the time it took after restrictions were lifted for people to feel happy about resuming normal activities (for many this is still ongoing).
I would agree that is part of it but the reduction in incidence was so long and persistent I don't think that is all. It may be that there is less compliance than there was but we are trying much harder to protect care homes and other points of obvious infection that gave us our previous peak.
I don't think nearly enough has been done to find the source of infection. Where do we actually catch this? What are our weak points?
Tbh there's an easy way to filter testing, give everyone a temperature check on arrival and only test those who have a high temperature. Everyone else gets sent home to isolate.
I had my temperature taken at departures at Jakarta Airport. In March.
The issue with temperature taking is that it only detects the symptomatic and with ±60% or more of the infected/contagious having no symptoms it lets a lot of infection through.
The issue with airport virus testing on arrival is that it misses 100% of those infected in transit. That's why Guernsey has moved to "7 day quarantine, test on day 7 (result often same day)" for arrivals from low risk countries (which currently excludes most of the UK) while everyone else self quarantines for 14 days. Testing at day 7 should get ±90% of those infected in transit - which is judged an acceptable risk. Guernsey is NOT attempting to get to "Zero COVID" which it rightly regards as a fool's errand - but has only had one known case (which the system caught) in four months.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
It would bring a bit of realism back to the UK Govt and their posturing to a domestic audience. For trade deal purposes it makes zero difference who is in the White House if Congress holds a veto.
And it would greatly help developing a sensible future relationship with the EU if we didn't have to worry about the establishment of such a relationship being prevented by the terms of any possible trade deal that the US might be willing to accept.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
May would have done better. Cameron would have done better. Brown would have done better. Blair would have done better. Major would have done better. Thatcher would have done better. Callaghan would have done better Wilson would have done better. Heath would have done better.
That is just your political bias
The trouble is that Jonathan has rolled this out with every Tory leader in history.
Doesn't necessarily make him wrong this time, though - just predictable.
So let me ask a different question. Why did the incidence of the disease fall so consistently from May to late July to very low levels? What were we doing right that we are not doing now?
We were not wearing anything like the same number of masks so that should be an improvement. We were not doing anything like the same number of tests but of those that we did the percentage of positives was on a downward trend, now reversed. We did have more lockdown provisions in place, especially for restaurants and bars. We basically closed educational institutes, both schools and Universities. We had less travel. We had restrictions on groups meeting up which are now back in place with the rule of 6. We were going into a rather nice summer and spent quite a lot of time outside.
My tentative conclusion is that no matter how much we want, need, to get things back to normal masks are just not cutting it. Bars and restaurants have tried (for the most part) to comply with conditions but it just hasn't worked. We need to close them again. And gyms. And stop those selfish idiots who think that they have the right to go on holiday pandemic or no.
Schools and Universities is the tough one. My son's exams were messed up and devalued this year. I really, really don't want a repeat. But I can't help feeling that the return of hundreds of thousands of students to their place of study is going to greatly accelerate our new infection rates over the next month. If I am right what will people think in late October, especially if the lagging death rate starts to catch up again? I am deeply apprehensive.
Madness. Just close society until a vaccine? You are familiar with the concept of NPV aren't you? What value would we destroy in those months of close to zero economic activity? What damage to students from 3-22 would this do?
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
May would have done better. Cameron would have done better. Brown would have done better. Blair would have done better. Major would have done better. Thatcher would have done better. Callaghan would have done better Wilson would have done better. Heath would have done better.
That is just your political bias
No, he's right except (possibly) about May.
And how on earth do you know that "Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms...?" You don't, and secondly it's irrelevant that symptoms are mild: mild symptoms do not imply mild illness. The narrative is Orrwellian: a huge failing state undertaking, with the failure blamed not on those in charge of it but on traitors, saboteurs, enemies of the people and Goldsteinists.
I have experienced it personally in our family and it is the talk on Facebook and social media in parent groups
It's also frankly a ridiculous statement as a whole, which fundamentally undermines the new policy wholesale. Leaving aside the "neighbour snitching" angle, if all the Government is concerned about is "Animal House" parties, then it basically gives the green light to "specific and limited law breaking" - eg. gatherings of 7 or 8 people taking a few basic precautions.
One aspect of American opinion concerning Northern Ireland, which British people find it hard to understand (like we find it hard to make heads or tails of cricket) is that MANY Americans who are NOT of Irish Catholic heritage, or are multiple generations removed from the Emerald Isle, have a strong affinity for Celtic Ireland.
Why? Because for starters, there are many millions of Americans all across the country who are aware they have some Irish heritage. Most of these are descendants of Scots Irish, but relatively few of these folks identify with Irish Protestants, who from our perspective often seem to reject their Irishness. Instead, we're far more likely to gravitate to Celtic Ireland, because THAT is what we want AND expect from the Irish - song, wit, sentiment, booze & blarney.
What most Americans - including most Irish Americans - actually know about Ireland can be stored in a thimble. We know that the Brits beat up on the Irish, and that the Irish fought back. We know the Catholics don't get along with the Protestants, and visa versa, though it mystifies us why that is. And that's about it.
Nevertheless, St Patrick's Day ranks with Valentine's Day as our most popular non-paid holiday, enjoyed or at least recognized in some fashion by about 95% of the population, ranging from barrooms overflowing with green beer, to school kids pinching each other (esp cute girls you'd like to know better) for NOT wearing green.
Another factor is the wide popularity of Celtic music, including Irish and also Scots (but little Welsh) contemporary music. In general, instrumentals, traditionals & non-politicals are favored. Though "Kevin Barry" and "The Foggy Dew" will be appreciated - certainly far more than "Croppies Lie Down" or anything else stronger than "The Old Orange Flute" to which even a Cardinal couldn't take (reasonable) exception.
Also think America's Irish affinity is an echo of our late 18th, 19th and early 20th century Anglophobia. A time when even Know Nothings and other nativists who feared and disdained Irish immigrants were rarely pro-British. For many - and many more who were NOT nativistic, or leastways not much - blamed the British for driving the Irish to these shores with oppression and starvation. Note that we've NEVER had a beef with the Scots or Welsh, or even the Manx or Cornish - it's the ENGLISH who were the problem.
Took World Wars One & Two & esp. Winston Churchill to reduce US anti-British orientation, along with the fall of the Empire (bad mostly) and the rise of the Commonwealth (good, or at least much better). Beatles and the British Invasion that being British really became a plus for us. In the depths of our national DNA, in the backs of our collective mind, we will ALWAYS be more than a wee bit wary of our British - read that English - cousins.
The upshot is that the Special Relationship will always be more special for UK than for US.
There is certainly a lot of Irish heritage in the USA and, I suspect, understandable sympathy for the fact they too had to resort to armed rebellion to gain independence from the British.
But, I think attitudes to Irish republicanism and the Troubles became much more realistic in the last 30-40 years as the USA started to have its own serious experiences with terrorism and understood the difficult British position far more.
9/11 changed American attitudes to freedom fighters terrorists.
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Worth noting though how ineffective current measures are, with cases doubling in Oldham despite the new rules.
Leicester rules have never been fully relaxed, yet are on the uptick. Rumours that the Oadby and Wigston outbreak relates to a wedding with excessive numbers of guests.
We have been told to clear our backlog of waiting list by January. Delusional doesn’t come into it.
Just a wedding? The Rhonnda Cynon Taff lockdown origins are beyond parody. A coach load of pissed up rugby clubbers go for a jolly to Doncaster races, indulging in a pub crawl across England and Wales.
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I've just arrived in the discussion, have been glued to the TV last night, watching first the cricket ....... if Archer hadn't overstepped I think England would have won.....and then the conclusion of Des ...... where his 'motives' were never explained. Although if anyone actually;y knows what they were, I'd be surprised.
However, I looked at OGH's into to this and wonder about something in it, about meeting' the apparently irreconcilable demands of the UK wanting the province to remain while apparently meeting the contradictory objectives of Dublin.'
I don't think the UK is really bothered about N. Ireland. The Conservatives genuflect in favour of retention, largely for historic reasons. Labour isn't particularly worried either way. As far as I can see much of both main parties will be delighted when it appears there could well be a 51% pro-reunion vote in a referendum and the whole business can be done and dusted.
No - I don't welcome any diminution of British territory or people.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
May would have done better. Cameron would have done better. Brown would have done better. Blair would have done better. Major would have done better. Thatcher would have done better. Callaghan would have done better Wilson would have done better. Heath would have done better.
That is just your political bias
Looking at that list I'd have to say Johnson appears the least suited to the task. Thatcher would have been brilliant, but then she was a scientist and people trusted her.
A lot of global political leaders have enhanced their reputation but some have suffered. Trump has done particularly badly. Johnson started well but fell away badly after the Cummings fiasco and it's got worse since.
What's missing is basic competence, leadership and non-laziness. I truly feel that Gordon Brown, awful politician that he was, would have made a good fist of this. I'd much rather a pm who threw nokias at people over exam and testing cockups than one who just couldn't be arsed to.
It is very hard seeing this resolved by the end of the transition period on December 31st.
Is it? Isn't the path of least resistance to sign a deal with the EU that makes this moot?
Think about what Boris did last time: A whole series of things like proroguing parliament that enraged the pro-EU side and convinced the skeptics that he was one of them, get the anti-EU people committed to the idea that Boris is involved in a masterstroke of strong patriotic negotiation and the pro-EU people committed to the idea that a deal is impossible and it's all going to end in tears, then once one side is completely invested in cheering and the other completely invested in booing... accept the EU's terms.
When that happens the anti-EU people have a really hard time reversing course and taking up the position that Boris in fact a pathetic charlatan and the a deal is impossible like the anti-EU people said. So they say it's a great deal, parliament passes it, the Tory Party continues to support Boris and life goes on.
If I were I would have revived the deputy pm role, got someone like Hague or Hunt tin post and made them exclusively responsible for pandemic planning. Then I would have split the peacetime rule of sec state for health, which is clearly too big for one person in a pandemic. Base the dep pm in the doh and have Individual cabinet ministers for testing, hospitals, and vaccine planning. I would have kicked Brexit into 2021. That is clearly something that can wait a bit.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
May would have done better. Cameron would have done better. Brown would have done better. Blair would have done better. Major would have done better. Thatcher would have done better. Callaghan would have done better Wilson would have done better. Heath would have done better.
That is just your political bias
No, he's right except (possibly) about May.
And how on earth do you know that "Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms...?" You don't, and secondly it's irrelevant that symptoms are mild: mild symptoms do not imply mild illness. The narrative is Orrwellian: a huge failing state undertaking, with the failure blamed not on those in charge of it but on traitors, saboteurs, enemies of the people and Goldsteinists.
I have experienced it personally in our family and it is the talk on Facebook and social media in parent groups
And you personally made the diagnosis in each case, did you?
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
May would have done better. Cameron would have done better. Brown would have done better. Blair would have done better. Major would have done better. Thatcher would have done better. Callaghan would have done better Wilson would have done better. Heath would have done better.
That is just your political bias
Nope. That old lefty Thatcher would have done better than Boris. A scientist in no10 would have been a big win.
I detested Mrs Thatcher and all she stood for. I'd have her back in a heartbeat right now.
So let me ask a different question. Why did the incidence of the disease fall so consistently from May to late July to very low levels? What were we doing right that we are not doing now?
We were not wearing anything like the same number of masks so that should be an improvement. We were not doing anything like the same number of tests but of those that we did the percentage of positives was on a downward trend, now reversed. We did have more lockdown provisions in place, especially for restaurants and bars. We basically closed educational institutes, both schools and Universities. We had less travel. We had restrictions on groups meeting up which are now back in place with the rule of 6. We were going into a rather nice summer and spent quite a lot of time outside.
My tentative conclusion is that no matter how much we want, need, to get things back to normal masks are just not cutting it. Bars and restaurants have tried (for the most part) to comply with conditions but it just hasn't worked. We need to close them again. And gyms. And stop those selfish idiots who think that they have the right to go on holiday pandemic or no.
Schools and Universities is the tough one. My son's exams were messed up and devalued this year. I really, really don't want a repeat. But I can't help feeling that the return of hundreds of thousands of students to their place of study is going to greatly accelerate our new infection rates over the next month. If I am right what will people think in late October, especially if the lagging death rate starts to catch up again? I am deeply apprehensive.
Madness. Just close society until a vaccine? You are familiar with the concept of NPV aren't you? What value would we destroy in those months of close to zero economic activity? What damage to students from 3-22 would this do?
Get a grip man.
I`m was sorry to see David write that. May be the first time I`ve been disappointed with one of his posts. No allowance for the damage drachonian measures do. And heartily fed up with the scapegoating of people who have the temerity to want to retain their freedom to travel, when travelling to a country with a lower infection rate than where the person is travelling from. As you say, Topping, a lot of "madness" in the equation, and it seems to be spreading faster than the virus is.
It's also frankly a ridiculous statement as a whole, which fundamentally undermines the new policy wholesale. Leaving aside the "neighbour snitching" angle, if all the Government is concerned about is "Animal House" parties, then it basically gives the green light to "specific and limited law breaking" - eg. gatherings of 7 or 8 people taking a few basic precautions.
Apart from the curtain-twitchers on PB I can't think of anyone who is comfortable with the shop your neighbour strategy.
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Worth noting though how ineffective current measures are, with cases doubling in Oldham despite the new rules.
Leicester rules have never been fully relaxed, yet are on the uptick. Rumours that the Oadby and Wigston outbreak relates to a wedding with excessive numbers of guests.
We have been told to clear our backlog of waiting list by January. Delusional doesn’t come into it.
Just a wedding? The Rhonnda Cynon Taff lockdown origins are beyond parody. A coach load of pissed up rugby clubbers go for a jolly to Doncaster races, indulging in a pub crawl across England and Wales.
Yes I saw that on the Welsh news last night
The poll that showed 49% believe that any second wave is the public fault v 31% HMG comes to mind
One aspect of American opinion concerning Northern Ireland, which British people find it hard to understand (like we find it hard to make heads or tails of cricket) is that MANY Americans who are NOT of Irish Catholic heritage, or are multiple generations removed from the Emerald Isle, have a strong affinity for Celtic Ireland.
Why? Because for starters, there are many millions of Americans all across the country who are aware they have some Irish heritage. Most of these are descendants of Scots Irish, but relatively few of these folks identify with Irish Protestants, who from our perspective often seem to reject their Irishness. Instead, we're far more likely to gravitate to Celtic Ireland, because THAT is what we want AND expect from the Irish - song, wit, sentiment, booze & blarney.
What most Americans - including most Irish Americans - actually know about Ireland can be stored in a thimble. We know that the Brits beat up on the Irish, and that the Irish fought back. We know the Catholics don't get along with the Protestants, and visa versa, though it mystifies us why that is. And that's about it.
Nevertheless, St Patrick's Day ranks with Valentine's Day as our most popular non-paid holiday, enjoyed or at least recognized in some fashion by about 95% of the population, ranging from barrooms overflowing with green beer, to school kids pinching each other (esp cute girls you'd like to know better) for NOT wearing green.
Another factor is the wide popularity of Celtic music, including Irish and also Scots (but little Welsh) contemporary music. In general, instrumentals, traditionals & non-politicals are favored. Though "Kevin Barry" and "The Foggy Dew" will be appreciated - certainly far more than "Croppies Lie Down" or anything else stronger than "The Old Orange Flute" to which even a Cardinal couldn't take (reasonable) exception.
Also think America's Irish affinity is an echo of our late 18th, 19th and early 20th century Anglophobia. A time when even Know Nothings and other nativists who feared and disdained Irish immigrants were rarely pro-British. For many - and many more who were NOT nativistic, or leastways not much - blamed the British for driving the Irish to these shores with oppression and starvation. Note that we've NEVER had a beef with the Scots or Welsh, or even the Manx or Cornish - it's the ENGLISH who were the problem.
Took World Wars One & Two & esp. Winston Churchill to reduce US anti-British orientation, along with the fall of the Empire (bad mostly) and the rise of the Commonwealth (good, or at least much better). Beatles and the British Invasion that being British really became a plus for us. In the depths of our national DNA, in the backs of our collective mind, we will ALWAYS be more than a wee bit wary of our British - read that English - cousins.
The upshot is that the Special Relationship will always be more special for UK than for US.
There is certainly a lot of Irish heritage in the USA and, I suspect, understandable sympathy for the fact they too had to resort to armed rebellion to gain independence from the British.
But, I think attitudes to Irish republicanism and the Troubles became much more realistic in the last 30-40 years as the USA started to have its own serious experiences with terrorism and understood the difficult British position far more.
9/11 changed American attitudes to freedom fighters terrorists.
It was also evident in the 1992 film Patriot Games.
Yes yes popular culture and all that - but it was the first major US film (I can think of) that portrayed the British as suffering from extreme terrorism from the provisional IRA with the USA sympathetic to the British government.
Why is Spain faring so much worse than countries like Italy ? The increase in cases and deaths in Spain looks ominous, and highly reminiscent of last time, and yet countries like Italy and Austria, near the epicentre of the disease last time, seem to be going on roughly as normal relative to the last few months.
What is going on, I wonder.
The Italians didn’t open up nightclubs etc.
The Italians have the ongoing psychological shock of that truly terrible outbreak in the north, which continues to concentrate minds.
The nature of the Italian tourist industry is different from the Spanish, with little of the deliberate debauchery of the Costas and Balearics.
Maybe there is something about the demographics of Madrid as compared to Rome, I don’t know.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
May would have done better. Cameron would have done better. Brown would have done better. Blair would have done better. Major would have done better. Thatcher would have done better. Callaghan would have done better Wilson would have done better. Heath would have done better.
That is just your political bias
Looking at that list I'd have to say Johnson appears the least suited to the task. Thatcher would have been brilliant, but then she was a scientist and people trusted her.
A lot of global political leaders have enhanced their reputation but some have suffered. Trump has done particularly badly. Johnson started well but fell away badly after the Cummings fiasco and it's got worse since.
What's missing is basic competence, leadership and non-laziness. I truly feel that Gordon Brown, awful politician that he was, would have made a good fist of this. I'd much rather a pm who threw nokias at people over exam and testing cockups than one who just couldn't be arsed to.
Most shambolic Government of my lifetime by a long, long, way.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
May would have done better. Cameron would have done better. Brown would have done better. Blair would have done better. Major would have done better. Thatcher would have done better. Callaghan would have done better Wilson would have done better. Heath would have done better.
That is just your political bias
Looking at that list I'd have to say Johnson appears the least suited to the task. Thatcher would have been brilliant, but then she was a scientist and people trusted her.
A lot of global political leaders have enhanced their reputation but some have suffered. Trump has done particularly badly. Johnson started well but fell away badly after the Cummings fiasco and it's got worse since.
What's missing is basic competence, leadership and non-laziness. I truly feel that Gordon Brown, awful politician that he was, would have made a good fist of this. I'd much rather a pm who threw nokias at people over exam and testing cockups than one who just couldn't be arsed to.
I would go for Mrs May. She would at least have made an effort to do the right thing. We would have locked down two weeks sooner, and schools would have been prioritised over pubs.
It's also frankly a ridiculous statement as a whole, which fundamentally undermines the new policy wholesale. Leaving aside the "neighbour snitching" angle, if all the Government is concerned about is "Animal House" parties, then it basically gives the green light to "specific and limited law breaking" - eg. gatherings of 7 or 8 people taking a few basic precautions.
Apart from the curtain-twitchers on PB I can't think of anyone who is comfortable with the shop your neighbour strategy.
Patel’s neighbours were distinctly unimpressed, as per that rather amusing Vox Pop the Guardian went and did in her street.
It's also frankly a ridiculous statement as a whole, which fundamentally undermines the new policy wholesale. Leaving aside the "neighbour snitching" angle, if all the Government is concerned about is "Animal House" parties, then it basically gives the green light to "specific and limited law breaking" - eg. gatherings of 7 or 8 people taking a few basic precautions.
Apart from the curtain-twitchers on PB I can't think of anyone who is comfortable with the shop your neighbour strategy.
Absolutely. But it may surprise that there are a large number of people who genuinely try to obey the law (even if they disagree with it) and are reluctantly, basically seeking to comply with the new rule of six regulations. But then Johnson goes in front of the select committee and announces (albeit via a different question - relating to neighbours) that he's not really that concerned about minor infractions, as long as it isn't an "animal house party". Which means that people will hear that and take on board that they can push the boat on the "spirit" of the regulations, if not the letter.
When frankly, the rules as they existed before were sufficient for dealing with large raucous house parties.
Comments
That’s still the system’s fault and thus the Government. It sounds, although @kamski may correct me if I’m wrong that in Germany you have to go through a hospital or your GP for triage first. That sounds much more sensible if they need to be rationed.
Either way this is a direct consequence of “Cummings knows best”.
Most people with a heavy cold will sneeze.
The strength of his App is that he gets everyone to report whatever symptoms they might have, and is then able to cross-correlate these with any subsequent positive test results. I’ve been doing it from the start and have been offered three tests, soon after reporting being off colour. The first two I let pass as there didn’t seem any point in tying up resources.
The EU are acting in bad faith and don't genuinely want a deal (so are putting obstacles in the place of getting one*). The UK does want a deal**. If the outcome is no deal then that will prove he is right and he will be able to say that he wasn't mistaken in what he is saying.
Basically no deal on Jan 1st proves the EU were not acting in good faith (and allows breaking of the Withdrawal Agreement).
*aka, won't agree to all UK demands or agree to suspend obligations on UK as a country external to the EU
**even though they claim to be 'relaxed' about the alternative
We were not wearing anything like the same number of masks so that should be an improvement.
We were not doing anything like the same number of tests but of those that we did the percentage of positives was on a downward trend, now reversed.
We did have more lockdown provisions in place, especially for restaurants and bars.
We basically closed educational institutes, both schools and Universities.
We had less travel.
We had restrictions on groups meeting up which are now back in place with the rule of 6.
We were going into a rather nice summer and spent quite a lot of time outside.
My tentative conclusion is that no matter how much we want, need, to get things back to normal masks are just not cutting it. Bars and restaurants have tried (for the most part) to comply with conditions but it just hasn't worked. We need to close them again. And gyms. And stop those selfish idiots who think that they have the right to go on holiday pandemic or no.
Schools and Universities is the tough one. My son's exams were messed up and devalued this year. I really, really don't want a repeat. But I can't help feeling that the return of hundreds of thousands of students to their place of study is going to greatly accelerate our new infection rates over the next month. If I am right what will people think in late October, especially if the lagging death rate starts to catch up again? I am deeply apprehensive.
There is currently a VAT/Duty/Excise/Tax border on the island of Ireland. Why isn't that an issue?
On 5 live this morning it was said that over 100,000 tests have been reserved for care homes use only
There are a significant number of different testing processes which might provide cheap, rapid mass testing, already developed.
It’s not particularly strange that China might also gave the capability.
After all, they were using pooled testing to test the entire population of Wuhan back in early June.
Your conviction that this administration could not have done better is simply your establishment bias.
Possibly, but I know quite a few people locally who have had tests just because of having normal cold symptoms. Yet the system (or systems - it is very decentralised) seems to be working ok. It's strange, because the UK seems to be doing a lot of tests - maybe more than Germany which has a significantly larger population. Although I can't find any up-to-date national test numbers for Germany, and the UK test numbers have been as dodgy as hell ever since the government started making up numbers so they could pretend to have hit the infamous 100,000 target.
It may also be that there is more demand for tests in the UK because there are more cases, it's hard to tell.
People have been told there are plenty of tests and are acting accordingly. This is again a messaging issue.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/16/boris-johnson-has-six-months-left-save-premiership/
Alistair Heath effectively saying Johnson's chance of a decent legacy now rests on Dido Harding.
It would have to take a heart of stone etc etc...
But don’t worry. Since the hounds are socially distanced and wearing face masks their barks is worse than their bite.
The ‘cost’ is simply Johnson’s ridiculous figure being thrown back at him.
Why the flying f*ck didn't they do this weeks ago when anyone who can sit on a toilet correctly could have predicted the chaos now.
Noting that lag has two components. Physical lag, the time between infection, symptoms, and the result of a test. And psychological lag - the time it took after restrictions were lifted for people to feel happy about resuming normal activities (for many this is still ongoing).
And how on earth do you know that "Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms...?" You don't, and secondly it's irrelevant that symptoms are mild: mild symptoms do not imply mild illness. The narrative is Orrwellian: a huge failing state undertaking, with the failure blamed not on those in charge of it but on traitors, saboteurs, enemies of the people and Goldsteinists.
I'd rather lose a week's wages than die.
Clinical need must come first, tests for people to go to work are good to have but must be bottom priority.
And less time and effort wasted over the summer in planning for a wholesale reorganisation of public health administration by the person supposed also to be in charge of testing.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Why can't he just get on with the jobs in hand and jettison all the tomfoolery?
A lot of global political leaders have enhanced their reputation but some have suffered. Trump has done particularly badly. Johnson started well but fell away badly after the Cummings fiasco and it's got worse since.
What is going on, I wonder.
- The UK, made it very, very easy to get a test. So more and more people asked for tests. About 5 days ago, this demand jumped around 40K - which used up the current spare capacity.
- The ONS infection survey says that there are not vast amounts of hidden cases.
- The symptoms of just about every disease* start with the "A bit like the flu".
*I exaggerate. A bit.
They are hostile to Brexit
Brexit is hostile to the UK...
But, I think attitudes to Irish republicanism and the Troubles became much more realistic in the last 30-40 years as the USA started to have its own serious experiences with terrorism and understood the difficult British position far more.
I don't think nearly enough has been done to find the source of infection. Where do we actually catch this? What are our weak points?
The issue with temperature taking is that it only detects the symptomatic and with ±60% or more of the infected/contagious having no symptoms it lets a lot of infection through.
The issue with airport virus testing on arrival is that it misses 100% of those infected in transit. That's why Guernsey has moved to "7 day quarantine, test on day 7 (result often same day)" for arrivals from low risk countries (which currently excludes most of the UK) while everyone else self quarantines for 14 days. Testing at day 7 should get ±90% of those infected in transit - which is judged an acceptable risk. Guernsey is NOT attempting to get to "Zero COVID" which it rightly regards as a fool's errand - but has only had one known case (which the system caught) in four months.
And it would greatly help developing a sensible future relationship with the EU if we didn't have to worry about the establishment of such a relationship being prevented by the terms of any possible trade deal that the US might be willing to accept.
Doesn't necessarily make him wrong this time, though - just predictable.
Get a grip man.
https://twitter.com/TOPPING_PB/status/1306494688598392832
I want them to stay.
Think about what Boris did last time: A whole series of things like proroguing parliament that enraged the pro-EU side and convinced the skeptics that he was one of them, get the anti-EU people committed to the idea that Boris is involved in a masterstroke of strong patriotic negotiation and the pro-EU people committed to the idea that a deal is impossible and it's all going to end in tears, then once one side is completely invested in cheering and the other completely invested in booing... accept the EU's terms.
When that happens the anti-EU people have a really hard time reversing course and taking up the position that Boris in fact a pathetic charlatan and the a deal is impossible like the anti-EU people said. So they say it's a great deal, parliament passes it, the Tory Party continues to support Boris and life goes on.
If only I was sure he was that clever.
The poll that showed 49% believe that any second wave is the public fault v 31% HMG comes to mind
Yes yes popular culture and all that - but it was the first major US film (I can think of) that portrayed the British as suffering from extreme terrorism from the provisional IRA with the USA sympathetic to the British government.
The Italians have the ongoing psychological shock of that truly terrible outbreak in the north, which continues to concentrate minds.
The nature of the Italian tourist industry is different from the Spanish, with little of the deliberate debauchery of the Costas and Balearics.
Maybe there is something about the demographics of Madrid as compared to Rome, I don’t know.
This comes from someone known to be a global traveller.
When frankly, the rules as they existed before were sufficient for dealing with large raucous house parties.