"in an absence of testing"...there isn't an absence, they are still doing 200k a day. It is demand exceeds this, but unlike March, with 200k tests per days and now historical data, the egghaads must be able to more accurate estimates.
They aren't - the staff capacity is there, the processing of test capacity isn't
Total tests processed according to official data for yesterday 221,192.
My point is unlike March where we were talking about a very small and self selected number of tests, now they do enough to be able to start to get a much better estimate on true number of cases.
It's a total shambles. Unbelievable that they were telling everyone it was their patriotic duty to get back in the office.
...and to the pub.
Johnson is in early bath territory if he calls for another two week lockdown. Two will become four, will become eight and so on. He just won't do it. Politically that is worse for him than another 60,000 fatalities, he has already got away with the first 60,000, so maybe no one will notice the second, so long as they can still go back to the pub and the office.
An article heavy on the alternate reality. "His supporters know he has it in him to reach for the greatness...there must be no last-minute surrender, on Europe".
Actually reading the article (I hadn't before) the things he wants Boris to do are the things that I think would actually completely screw Boris up.
Boris really can't win from here and merely he still hasn't fully recovered from bring ill
I think you are letting him off the hook. It is not his health but his casual, cavalier approach to life...and death that concerns me.
His performance infront of Benn's committee today was punctuated by the most enormous whoppa, which he almost immediately acknowledged.
Johnson has personally assured us it is safe to go to work, to pubs, to restaurants, and our children to school and university. As someone who packed his son off to the University of South Wales in RCT on Sunday, only for the county borough to be locked down four days later, I have a dog in this race.
We dropped eek twin b off last Wednesday. On Thursday there was a party in the flats attended by someone who had had a test of Thursday daytime. Last Friday we were told the test was positive so literally everyone in the block could be infected due to said person going to that party. Eek twin b thankfully wasn't at the party she had gone to the cinema (les miserables) and there was only 3 people in the screen so nothing to worry about there)
I am pleased it worked out positively for your family.
My son is sensible too, but it won't be much fun locked away in halls for weeks on end. He is quite resiliant in that respect, but others may be less so.
The Friends of Ireland congressional group is strong - maybe not as strong as the Israel lobby, but probably stronger than any other except possibly Taiwan. And while there may be more Democrats than Republicans in there, it is also pretty bipartisan. If the Friends of Ireland make a good case for opposing a trade deal, the irrespective of who's in the White House, I don't think it happens.
That being said, agriculture remains an almost insurmountable issue to any UK-US FTA.
(I would also point out that many of the things that we hate about the proposed EU deal will be required for a deal with the US - such as dynamic alignment, in their case around IP law - and a dispute resolution mechanism tilted towads the larger partner.)
The vast majority of Friends of Ireland are now Democrats reflecting their dominance of Irish American heavy New York, Illinois and Massachussetts
Sure, but it would only take a couple of Republican Friends of Ireland to scupper a trade deal, even if the Republicans won the House back and the Presidency.
There's no way the GOP will win the House back
If Trump is re elected there is a chance the GOP will retake the House as every seat is up, however the Democrats could also retake the Senate as the seats up there were last up in 2014, a bad Democratic year
It's vanishingly unlikely the GOP will regain the house. Most of the Dem gains in 2018 were in California which is not going to switch back to Trump, even if he wins the presidency.
Trump won't win California no but a few polls have shown Trump doing better in the state than he did in 2016 which might help the GOP win back seats in places like Orange County they lost in 2018
COOK REPORT current says there is one toss-race in Cali seat currently held by Dems CA-21 which is Fresno / San Joaquin Valley not OC. This is balanced by Rep-held tossup CA*25 which is mostly far north LA County but also includes part of Ventura Co including Simi Valley site of Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.
On the other hand, CP says nationwide there are currently 16 toss-up US House districts now held by Democrats versus just 12 now held by Republicans,.
Dem toss-ups" include 3 in Iowa, 2 in both New York & Virginia, 1 each in CA, FL, ME, MN, NJ, NM, OK, SC, UT
Rep toss=ups include 3 in Texas, 1 each CA, IN, MO, NE, NJ, NY, OH, PA
Note - do NOT judge likely outcome in these districts simply by what state they are in, because toss-ups tend to be races with special demographics and circumstances, including but not limited to vagaries of redistricting.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
British exceptionalism is a powerful thing, as our Brexit-thumping friends show
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
British exceptionalism is a powerful thing, as our Brexit-thumping friends show
Well I can hardly be accused of being a Brexiter ;.)
The Friends of Ireland congressional group is strong - maybe not as strong as the Israel lobby, but probably stronger than any other except possibly Taiwan. And while there may be more Democrats than Republicans in there, it is also pretty bipartisan. If the Friends of Ireland make a good case for opposing a trade deal, the irrespective of who's in the White House, I don't think it happens.
That being said, agriculture remains an almost insurmountable issue to any UK-US FTA.
(I would also point out that many of the things that we hate about the proposed EU deal will be required for a deal with the US - such as dynamic alignment, in their case around IP law - and a dispute resolution mechanism tilted towads the larger partner.)
The vast majority of Friends of Ireland are now Democrats reflecting their dominance of Irish American heavy New York, Illinois and Massachussetts
Sure, but it would only take a couple of Republican Friends of Ireland to scupper a trade deal, even if the Republicans won the House back and the Presidency.
There's no way the GOP will win the House back
If Trump is re elected there is a chance the GOP will retake the House as every seat is up, however the Democrats could also retake the Senate as the seats up there were last up in 2014, a bad Democratic year
It's vanishingly unlikely the GOP will regain the house. Most of the Dem gains in 2018 were in California which is not going to switch back to Trump, even if he wins the presidency.
Trump won't win California no but a few polls have shown Trump doing better in the state than he did in 2016 which might help the GOP win back seats in places like Orange County they lost in 2018
COOK REPORT current says there is one toss-race in Cali seat currently held by Dems CA-21 which is Fresno / San Joaquin Valley not OC. This is balanced by Rep-held tossup CA*25 which is mostly far north LA County but also includes part of Ventura Co including Simi Valley site of Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.
On the other hand, CP says nationwide there are currently 16 toss-up US House districts now held by Democrats versus just 12 now held by Republicans,.
Dem toss-ups" include 3 in Iowa, 2 in both New York & Virginia, 1 each in CA, FL, ME, MN, NJ, NM, OK, SC, UT
Rep toss=ups include 3 in Texas, 1 each CA, IN, MO, NE, NJ, NY, OH, PA
Note - do NOT judge likely outcome in these districts simply by what state they are in, because toss-ups tend to be races with special demographics and circumstances, including but not limited to vagaries of redistricting.
Even in the extremely u likely event of the Dems losing all of their tossups and the GOP winning all theirs the Dems would keep the house. Which is why the GOP won’t win it back - the most likely outcome is a small net Dem gain.
It's a total shambles. Unbelievable that they were telling everyone it was their patriotic duty to get back in the office.
...and to the pub.
Johnson is in early bath territory if he calls for another two week lockdown. Two will become four, will become eight and so on. He just won't do it. Politically that is worse for him than another 60,000 fatalities, he has already got away with the first 60,000, so maybe no one will notice the second, so long as they can still go back to the pub and the office.
An article heavy on the alternate reality. "His supporters know he has it in him to reach for the greatness...there must be no last-minute surrender, on Europe".
Actually reading the article (I hadn't before) the things he wants Boris to do are the things that I think would actually completely screw Boris up.
Boris really can't win from here and merely he still hasn't fully recovered from bring ill
I think you are letting him off the hook. It is not his health but his casual, cavalier approach to life...and death that concerns me.
His performance infront of Benn's committee today was punctuated by the most enormous whoppa, which he almost immediately acknowledged.
Johnson has personally assured us it is safe to go to work, to pubs, to restaurants, and our children to school and university. As someone who packed his son off to the University of South Wales in RCT on Sunday, only for the county borough to be locked down four days later, I have a dog in this race.
We dropped eek twin b off last Wednesday. On Thursday there was a party in the flats attended by someone who had had a test of Thursday daytime. Last Friday we were told the test was positive so literally everyone in the block could be infected due to said person going to that party. Eek twin b thankfully wasn't at the party she had gone to the cinema (les miserables) and there was only 3 people in the screen so nothing to worry about there)
I am pleased it worked out positively for your family.
My son is sensible too, but it won't be much fun locked away in halls for weeks on end. He is quite resiliant in that respect, but others may be less so.
The group that I feel the sorriest for, as we all deal with the Creeping & Constant Crud, is the youth.
IF yours truly ruled the world, would put a sizeable chunk of stimulus spending into youth universal service programs that would harness the tremendous energy & potential of young people via education (from remedial to doctoral), discipline (esp. COVID-prevention), and community service (including military, police, fire, etc for those inclined who make the grade). What a wonderful investment for the present AND for the future.
For example, just imagine how much testing a corps of young adults could do, and how quickly they could do it, from Lands End to John o'Groats.
Just like the CCC during the Great Depression here in the USA. Where most of their good works still endure in parks and other infrastructure from sea to shining sea. Only bigger and better.
My guess is that you could have a lot of "bubbles" where appropriate & feasible (say maintaining walking trails in national parks) and (somewhat) strict COVID protocals where not (such as coaching young kids or helping geezers fetch groceries). In theory anyway.
The Friends of Ireland congressional group is strong - maybe not as strong as the Israel lobby, but probably stronger than any other except possibly Taiwan. And while there may be more Democrats than Republicans in there, it is also pretty bipartisan. If the Friends of Ireland make a good case for opposing a trade deal, the irrespective of who's in the White House, I don't think it happens.
That being said, agriculture remains an almost insurmountable issue to any UK-US FTA.
(I would also point out that many of the things that we hate about the proposed EU deal will be required for a deal with the US - such as dynamic alignment, in their case around IP law - and a dispute resolution mechanism tilted towads the larger partner.)
The vast majority of Friends of Ireland are now Democrats reflecting their dominance of Irish American heavy New York, Illinois and Massachussetts
Sure, but it would only take a couple of Republican Friends of Ireland to scupper a trade deal, even if the Republicans won the House back and the Presidency.
There's no way the GOP will win the House back
If Trump is re elected there is a chance the GOP will retake the House as every seat is up, however the Democrats could also retake the Senate as the seats up there were last up in 2014, a bad Democratic year
It's vanishingly unlikely the GOP will regain the house. Most of the Dem gains in 2018 were in California which is not going to switch back to Trump, even if he wins the presidency.
Trump won't win California no but a few polls have shown Trump doing better in the state than he did in 2016 which might help the GOP win back seats in places like Orange County they lost in 2018
COOK REPORT current says there is one toss-race in Cali seat currently held by Dems CA-21 which is Fresno / San Joaquin Valley not OC. This is balanced by Rep-held tossup CA*25 which is mostly far north LA County but also includes part of Ventura Co including Simi Valley site of Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.
On the other hand, CP says nationwide there are currently 16 toss-up US House districts now held by Democrats versus just 12 now held by Republicans,.
Dem toss-ups" include 3 in Iowa, 2 in both New York & Virginia, 1 each in CA, FL, ME, MN, NJ, NM, OK, SC, UT
Rep toss=ups include 3 in Texas, 1 each CA, IN, MO, NE, NJ, NY, OH, PA
Note - do NOT judge likely outcome in these districts simply by what state they are in, because toss-ups tend to be races with special demographics and circumstances, including but not limited to vagaries of redistricting.
Even in the extremely u likely event of the Dems losing all of their tossups and the GOP winning all theirs the Dems would keep the house. Which is why the GOP won’t win it back - the most likely outcome is a small net Dem gain.
In 2016 the Republicans got 49% and 241 seats and the Democrats got 48% and 194 seats.
If there was a similar result in November there would be a lot more than just tossups going GOP and the GOP could certainly retake the House
One aspect of American opinion concerning Northern Ireland, which British people find it hard to understand (like we find it hard to make heads or tails of cricket) is that MANY Americans who are NOT of Irish Catholic heritage, or are multiple generations removed from the Emerald Isle, have a strong affinity for Celtic Ireland.
Why? Because for starters, there are many millions of Americans all across the country who are aware they have some Irish heritage. Most of these are descendants of Scots Irish, but relatively few of these folks identify with Irish Protestants, who from our perspective often seem to reject their Irishness. Instead, we're far more likely to gravitate to Celtic Ireland, because THAT is what we want AND expect from the Irish - song, wit, sentiment, booze & blarney.
What most Americans - including most Irish Americans - actually know about Ireland can be stored in a thimble. We know that the Brits beat up on the Irish, and that the Irish fought back. We know the Catholics don't get along with the Protestants, and visa versa, though it mystifies us why that is. And that's about it.
Nevertheless, St Patrick's Day ranks with Valentine's Day as our most popular non-paid holiday, enjoyed or at least recognized in some fashion by about 95% of the population, ranging from barrooms overflowing with green beer, to school kids pinching each other (esp cute girls you'd like to know better) for NOT wearing green.
Another factor is the wide popularity of Celtic music, including Irish and also Scots (but little Welsh) contemporary music. In general, instrumentals, traditionals & non-politicals are favored. Though "Kevin Barry" and "The Foggy Dew" will be appreciated - certainly far more than "Croppies Lie Down" or anything else stronger than "The Old Orange Flute" to which even a Cardinal couldn't take (reasonable) exception.
Also think America's Irish affinity is an echo of our late 18th, 19th and early 20th century Anglophobia. A time when even Know Nothings and other nativists who feared and disdained Irish immigrants were rarely pro-British. For many - and many more who were NOT nativistic, or leastways not much - blamed the British for driving the Irish to these shores with oppression and starvation. Note that we've NEVER had a beef with the Scots or Welsh, or even the Manx or Cornish - it's the ENGLISH who were the problem.
Took World Wars One & Two & esp. Winston Churchill to reduce US anti-British orientation, along with the fall of the Empire (bad mostly) and the rise of the Commonwealth (good, or at least much better). Beatles and the British Invasion that being British really became a plus for us. In the depths of our national DNA, in the backs of our collective mind, we will ALWAYS be more than a wee bit wary of our British - read that English - cousins.
The upshot is that the Special Relationship will always be more special for UK than for US.
So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.
Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.
No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.
Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency
I highly doubt anyone is driving around in the UK with a Trump bumper sticker, but whoever is president is almost irrelevant from the POV of a trade deal given the Democrats will certainly hold Congress.
In Epping I canvassed one house with Brexit stickers and Vote Leave stickers all over one window and Trump stickers and 'Make America Great Again' baseball caps in the other
The Friends of Ireland congressional group is strong - maybe not as strong as the Israel lobby, but probably stronger than any other except possibly Taiwan. And while there may be more Democrats than Republicans in there, it is also pretty bipartisan. If the Friends of Ireland make a good case for opposing a trade deal, the irrespective of who's in the White House, I don't think it happens.
That being said, agriculture remains an almost insurmountable issue to any UK-US FTA.
(I would also point out that many of the things that we hate about the proposed EU deal will be required for a deal with the US - such as dynamic alignment, in their case around IP law - and a dispute resolution mechanism tilted towads the larger partner.)
The vast majority of Friends of Ireland are now Democrats reflecting their dominance of Irish American heavy New York, Illinois and Massachussetts
Sure, but it would only take a couple of Republican Friends of Ireland to scupper a trade deal, even if the Republicans won the House back and the Presidency.
There's no way the GOP will win the House back
If Trump is re elected there is a chance the GOP will retake the House as every seat is up, however the Democrats could also retake the Senate as the seats up there were last up in 2014, a bad Democratic year
It's vanishingly unlikely the GOP will regain the house. Most of the Dem gains in 2018 were in California which is not going to switch back to Trump, even if he wins the presidency.
Trump won't win California no but a few polls have shown Trump doing better in the state than he did in 2016 which might help the GOP win back seats in places like Orange County they lost in 2018
COOK REPORT current says there is one toss-race in Cali seat currently held by Dems CA-21 which is Fresno / San Joaquin Valley not OC. This is balanced by Rep-held tossup CA*25 which is mostly far north LA County but also includes part of Ventura Co including Simi Valley site of Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.
On the other hand, CP says nationwide there are currently 16 toss-up US House districts now held by Democrats versus just 12 now held by Republicans,.
Dem toss-ups" include 3 in Iowa, 2 in both New York & Virginia, 1 each in CA, FL, ME, MN, NJ, NM, OK, SC, UT
Rep toss=ups include 3 in Texas, 1 each CA, IN, MO, NE, NJ, NY, OH, PA
Note - do NOT judge likely outcome in these districts simply by what state they are in, because toss-ups tend to be races with special demographics and circumstances, including but not limited to vagaries of redistricting.
Even in the extremely u likely event of the Dems losing all of their tossups and the GOP winning all theirs the Dems would keep the house. Which is why the GOP won’t win it back - the most likely outcome is a small net Dem gain.
Are the 2016-18-20 boundaries different or the same ?
It is very hard seeing this resolved by the end of the transition period on December 31st.
Is it? Isn't the path of least resistance to sign a deal with the EU that makes this moot?
Think about what Boris did last time: A whole series of things like proroguing parliament that enraged the pro-EU side and convinced the skeptics that he was one of them, get the anti-EU people committed to the idea that Boris is involved in a masterstroke of strong patriotic negotiation and the pro-EU people committed to the idea that a deal is impossible and it's all going to end in tears, then once one side is completely invested in cheering and the other completely invested in booing... accept the EU's terms.
When that happens the anti-EU people have a really hard time reversing course and taking up the position that Boris in fact a pathetic charlatan and the a deal is impossible like the anti-EU people said. So they say it's a great deal, parliament passes it, the Tory Party continues to support Boris and life goes on.
It is very hard seeing this resolved by the end of the transition period on December 31st.
Is it? Isn't the path of least resistance to sign a deal with the EU that makes this moot?
Think about what Boris did last time: A whole series of things like proroguing parliament that enraged the pro-EU side and convinced the skeptics that he was one of them, get the anti-EU people committed to the idea that Boris is involved in a masterstroke of strong patriotic negotiation and the pro-EU people committed to the idea that a deal is impossible and it's all going to end in tears, then once one side is completely invested in cheering and the other completely invested in booing... accept the EU's terms.
When that happens the anti-EU people have a really hard time reversing course and taking up the position that Boris in fact a pathetic charlatan and the a deal is impossible like the anti-EU people said. So they say it's a great deal, parliament passes it, the Tory Party continues to support Boris and life goes on.
The Friends of Ireland congressional group is strong - maybe not as strong as the Israel lobby, but probably stronger than any other except possibly Taiwan. And while there may be more Democrats than Republicans in there, it is also pretty bipartisan. If the Friends of Ireland make a good case for opposing a trade deal, the irrespective of who's in the White House, I don't think it happens.
That being said, agriculture remains an almost insurmountable issue to any UK-US FTA.
(I would also point out that many of the things that we hate about the proposed EU deal will be required for a deal with the US - such as dynamic alignment, in their case around IP law - and a dispute resolution mechanism tilted towads the larger partner.)
The vast majority of Friends of Ireland are now Democrats reflecting their dominance of Irish American heavy New York, Illinois and Massachussetts
Sure, but it would only take a couple of Republican Friends of Ireland to scupper a trade deal, even if the Republicans won the House back and the Presidency.
There's no way the GOP will win the House back
If Trump is re elected there is a chance the GOP will retake the House as every seat is up, however the Democrats could also retake the Senate as the seats up there were last up in 2014, a bad Democratic year
It's vanishingly unlikely the GOP will regain the house. Most of the Dem gains in 2018 were in California which is not going to switch back to Trump, even if he wins the presidency.
Trump won't win California no but a few polls have shown Trump doing better in the state than he did in 2016 which might help the GOP win back seats in places like Orange County they lost in 2018
COOK REPORT current says there is one toss-race in Cali seat currently held by Dems CA-21 which is Fresno / San Joaquin Valley not OC. This is balanced by Rep-held tossup CA*25 which is mostly far north LA County but also includes part of Ventura Co including Simi Valley site of Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.
On the other hand, CP says nationwide there are currently 16 toss-up US House districts now held by Democrats versus just 12 now held by Republicans,.
Dem toss-ups" include 3 in Iowa, 2 in both New York & Virginia, 1 each in CA, FL, ME, MN, NJ, NM, OK, SC, UT
Rep toss=ups include 3 in Texas, 1 each CA, IN, MO, NE, NJ, NY, OH, PA
Note - do NOT judge likely outcome in these districts simply by what state they are in, because toss-ups tend to be races with special demographics and circumstances, including but not limited to vagaries of redistricting.
Even in the extremely u likely event of the Dems losing all of their tossups and the GOP winning all theirs the Dems would keep the house. Which is why the GOP won’t win it back - the most likely outcome is a small net Dem gain.
Are the 2016-18-20 boundaries different or the same ?
The same. Congressional districts are re-drawn once a decade after the census, which is currently underway. The state assemblies elected in November will draw the new maps except in the handful of states that have non-partisan boundary commissions like the UK’s. The Democrats are hoping that a solid Biden win will have the “coattails” to flip sufficient state houses to give them an advantage in the redistricting process.
The Friends of Ireland congressional group is strong - maybe not as strong as the Israel lobby, but probably stronger than any other except possibly Taiwan. And while there may be more Democrats than Republicans in there, it is also pretty bipartisan. If the Friends of Ireland make a good case for opposing a trade deal, the irrespective of who's in the White House, I don't think it happens.
That being said, agriculture remains an almost insurmountable issue to any UK-US FTA.
(I would also point out that many of the things that we hate about the proposed EU deal will be required for a deal with the US - such as dynamic alignment, in their case around IP law - and a dispute resolution mechanism tilted towads the larger partner.)
The vast majority of Friends of Ireland are now Democrats reflecting their dominance of Irish American heavy New York, Illinois and Massachussetts
Sure, but it would only take a couple of Republican Friends of Ireland to scupper a trade deal, even if the Republicans won the House back and the Presidency.
There's no way the GOP will win the House back
If Trump is re elected there is a chance the GOP will retake the House as every seat is up, however the Democrats could also retake the Senate as the seats up there were last up in 2014, a bad Democratic year
It's vanishingly unlikely the GOP will regain the house. Most of the Dem gains in 2018 were in California which is not going to switch back to Trump, even if he wins the presidency.
Trump won't win California no but a few polls have shown Trump doing better in the state than he did in 2016 which might help the GOP win back seats in places like Orange County they lost in 2018
COOK REPORT current says there is one toss-race in Cali seat currently held by Dems CA-21 which is Fresno / San Joaquin Valley not OC. This is balanced by Rep-held tossup CA*25 which is mostly far north LA County but also includes part of Ventura Co including Simi Valley site of Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.
On the other hand, CP says nationwide there are currently 16 toss-up US House districts now held by Democrats versus just 12 now held by Republicans,.
Dem toss-ups" include 3 in Iowa, 2 in both New York & Virginia, 1 each in CA, FL, ME, MN, NJ, NM, OK, SC, UT
Rep toss=ups include 3 in Texas, 1 each CA, IN, MO, NE, NJ, NY, OH, PA
Note - do NOT judge likely outcome in these districts simply by what state they are in, because toss-ups tend to be races with special demographics and circumstances, including but not limited to vagaries of redistricting.
Even in the extremely u likely event of the Dems losing all of their tossups and the GOP winning all theirs the Dems would keep the house. Which is why the GOP won’t win it back - the most likely outcome is a small net Dem gain.
Are the 2016-18-20 boundaries different or the same ?
IIRC rightly only congressional boundary changes between 2016 and 2018 were in Pennsylvania; don't think any changes 2018 to 2020.
"in an absence of testing"...there isn't an absence, they are still doing 200k a day. It is demand exceeds this, but unlike March, with 200k tests per days and now historical data, the egghaads must be able to more accurate estimates.
They aren't - the staff capacity is there, the processing of test capacity isn't
Total tests processed according to official data for yesterday 221,192.
My point is unlike March where we were talking about a very small and self selected number of tests, now they do enough to be able to start to get a much better estimate on true number of cases.
And anyway, good use of statistical sampling should be able to provide an accurate picture on a fraction of that.
"in an absence of testing"...there isn't an absence, they are still doing 200k a day. It is demand exceeds this, but unlike March, with 200k tests per days and now historical data, the egghaads must be able to more accurate estimates.
They aren't - the staff capacity is there, the processing of test capacity isn't
Total tests processed according to official data for yesterday 221,192.
My point is unlike March where we were talking about a very small and self selected number of tests, now they do enough to be able to start to get a much better estimate on true number of cases.
The missing piece of information we don’t seem to have is for precisely how long after contracting the virus, enough hangs about in the body (either for everyone, or for special cases such as those with prolonged symptoms) to register a positive test?
Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.
Better to lockdown for 2 weeks now than have to do it for 6 weeks in a month's time.
The issue would be the politics around unlocking after the two weeks, if current trends around the world continue.
The percentage of tests proving positive appears to be increasing. Yesterday it was 1.80% of tests processed, a week earlier it was 1.36%, the previous week it was 0.83% and the week prior to that 0.68%.
Some posters are absolutely delusional. America is not "getting involved with Brexit". America is stating it's terms for trade. Which is its absolute sovereign right. It's not telling us what yo do at all, it's saying what it will do if we do what we say we will do.
Is the world supposed to dance to our tune and do what we want? How naive are some of you?
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.
Better to lockdown for 2 weeks now than have to do it for 6 weeks in a month's time.
The issue would be the politics around unlocking after the two weeks, if current trends around the world continue.
There is also the issue that the very act of “lockdown” (depending what that actually means ) could actually drive an acceleration of cases (or even worse serious high viral load cases) in the short term as infected people increase their close and prolonged contact to others in their household.
Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.
Better to lockdown for 2 weeks now than have to do it for 6 weeks in a month's time.
The issue would be the politics around unlocking after the two weeks, if current trends around the world continue.
There is also the issue that the very act of “lockdown” (depending what that actually means ) could actually drive an acceleration of cases (or even worse serious high viral load cases) in the short term as infected people increase their close and prolonged contact to others in their household.
As opposed to now where they infect the members of their household then infect others in work, in pret, in the pub etc.
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I've just arrived in the discussion, have been glued to the TV last night, watching first the cricket ....... if Archer hadn't overstepped I think England would have won.....and then the conclusion of Des ...... where his 'motives' were never explained. Although if anyone actually;y knows what they were, I'd be surprised.
However, I looked at OGH's into to this and wonder about something in it, about meeting' the apparently irreconcilable demands of the UK wanting the province to remain while apparently meeting the contradictory objectives of Dublin.'
I don't think the UK is really bothered about N. Ireland. The Conservatives genuflect in favour of retention, largely for historic reasons. Labour isn't particularly worried either way. As far as I can see much of both main parties will be delighted when it appears there could well be a 51% pro-reunion vote in a referendum and the whole business can be done and dusted.
Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.
Better to lockdown for 2 weeks now than have to do it for 6 weeks in a month's time.
The issue would be the politics around unlocking after the two weeks, if current trends around the world continue.
There is also the issue that the very act of “lockdown” (depending what that actually means ) could actually drive an acceleration of cases (or even worse serious high viral load cases) in the short term as infected people increase their close and prolonged contact to others in their household.
As opposed to now where they infect the members of their household then infect others in work, in pret, in the pub etc.
Your missing my point - which is whilst a lockdown might be effective (or even necessary) to get cases under control, it could have short term effects which would make it very unlikely to be resolved in 2 weeks.
And also the distinction (from a health perspective) between widespread “low dose” transmission and lower spread high/repeated dose transmission.
It is very hard seeing this resolved by the end of the transition period on December 31st.
Is it? Isn't the path of least resistance to sign a deal with the EU that makes this moot?
Think about what Boris did last time: A whole series of things like proroguing parliament that enraged the pro-EU side and convinced the skeptics that he was one of them, get the anti-EU people committed to the idea that Boris is involved in a masterstroke of strong patriotic negotiation and the pro-EU people committed to the idea that a deal is impossible and it's all going to end in tears, then once one side is completely invested in cheering and the other completely invested in booing... accept the EU's terms.
When that happens the anti-EU people have a really hard time reversing course and taking up the position that Boris in fact a pathetic charlatan and the a deal is impossible like the anti-EU people said. So they say it's a great deal, parliament passes it, the Tory Party continues to support Boris and life goes on.
It is very hard seeing this resolved by the end of the transition period on December 31st.
>>
This is a very perceptive summing-up of what happened this time last year , but surely there are some different circumstances this year as well. We're at the very end of the time left to secure a deal, and there seem to be many more institutional hurdles for the EU side to clear in tbefore ratifying that deal in the time available left, too. Another issue is that the government's most recent actions may be having unpredictable long-term consequences with trade partners like the U.S. too, outside the E.U's orbit but potentially impacting Britain's overall post-Brexit prospects and status, too.
Like most people, I have absolutely no idea what's going to happen.
Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.
Better to lockdown for 2 weeks now than have to do it for 6 weeks in a month's time.
The issue would be the politics around unlocking after the two weeks, if current trends around the world continue.
There is also the issue that the very act of “lockdown” (depending what that actually means ) could actually drive an acceleration of cases (or even worse serious high viral load cases) in the short term as infected people increase their close and prolonged contact to others in their household.
As opposed to now where they infect the members of their household then infect others in work, in pret, in the pub etc.
Your missing my point - which is whilst a lockdown might be effective (or even necessary) to get cases under control, it could have short term effects which would make it very unlikely to be resolved in 2 weeks.
And also the distinction (from a health perspective) between widespread “low dose” transmission and lower spread high/repeated dose transmission.
I don't think I am. Let's assume I have Covid. My wife and children have been directly exposed. Is it better that (a) we all go out and infect as many people as we can or (b) we are told to stay home and don't infect other people?
The guidance is crystal clear for anyone who even thinks they have the pox - isolate. The problem is that so many people have it, spread it yet are asymptomatic. A lockdown is inevitable, we may as well get on with it and try to squaah it early. Last time Shagger dithered an extra 20,000 people died...
£450 for the PS5 is about what I expected. Just hope it's quieter than it's predecessor. Also wondering about Avowed, by Obsidian (first person RPG set in the Pillars of Eternity world). Sadly Xbox exclusive, but looks intriguing.
Some posters are absolutely delusional. America is not "getting involved with Brexit". America is stating it's terms for trade. Which is its absolute sovereign right. It's not telling us what yo do at all, it's saying what it will do if we do what we say we will do.
Is the world supposed to dance to our tune and do what we want? How naive are some of you?
It’s like Johnson’s attempt to frame EU “bad faith” as being proven by any outcome that does not conclude in a deal (as in “we will only seek to break the terms of the NI protocol to the Withdrawal Agreement in the event that there is no deal outcome” - despite said protocol being specifically negotiated for the purposes of such an outcome occurring).
I’m still not entirely sure how he’s going to square “no deal will be a very good outcome for the U.K.”, with the need to apportion blame on others for no deal being disastrous, but no doubt he’ll find a way to move seamlessly from one to another.
“If the EU negotiates in good faith I expect a deal but if they don’t we will go to no deal which will be fine/a good outcome” “No deal has turned out badly because the EU have chosen to act in bad faith and make things difficult for us - like asking us to fill in some forms as a third country”.
Not an awful lot of room for a “good” no deal between those statements...
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
I don’t know - i’m not saying i’m correct just that there are potential short term consequences of “hard” lockdown as well. Not all “households” are the same (husband, wife, two kids). There are some shared households where in normal times the amount of contact time between inhabitants is actually pretty limited - being at work all day, differing shift patterns etc etc. And actually this is even sometimes true in family households. Which if nothing else will impact on viral load etc.
Of course, as WFH is now the norm, the effects could be a lot less pronounced than when we went into the first lockdown.
But whatever the situation it’s not likely to resolve itself in two weeks.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
I’m not thinking of any country in particular - I don’t have the knowledge of what any or all are doing. But it would be surprising if there aren’t some who emerge with that profile I would have thought.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
In an around Berlin it is compulsory to wear masks in shops, so yes common.
Not everything is back to normal though. Universities are soon to start their second online semester.
The Friends of Ireland congressional group is strong - maybe not as strong as the Israel lobby, but probably stronger than any other except possibly Taiwan. And while there may be more Democrats than Republicans in there, it is also pretty bipartisan. If the Friends of Ireland make a good case for opposing a trade deal, the irrespective of who's in the White House, I don't think it happens.
That being said, agriculture remains an almost insurmountable issue to any UK-US FTA.
(I would also point out that many of the things that we hate about the proposed EU deal will be required for a deal with the US - such as dynamic alignment, in their case around IP law - and a dispute resolution mechanism tilted towads the larger partner.)
The vast majority of Friends of Ireland are now Democrats reflecting their dominance of Irish American heavy New York, Illinois and Massachussetts
Sure, but it would only take a couple of Republican Friends of Ireland to scupper a trade deal, even if the Republicans won the House back and the Presidency.
There's no way the GOP will win the House back
If Trump is re elected there is a chance the GOP will retake the House as every seat is up, however the Democrats could also retake the Senate as the seats up there were last up in 2014, a bad Democratic year
It's vanishingly unlikely the GOP will regain the house. Most of the Dem gains in 2018 were in California which is not going to switch back to Trump, even if he wins the presidency.
2018 gains were on the back on MASSIVE swings. There are many plausible targets for the GOP even if Trump loses.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
Edit/ France was the interesting one. The town centre has been declared mask compulsory (almost universally observed), with marshalls manning checkpoints and dispensing sanitiser. If you only visited the town square you’d be really impressed with their effort and discipline. Walk off down the back streets, however, and places were packed with barely a mask to be seen.
We're at the very end of the time left to secure a deal, and there seem to be many more institutional hurdles for the EU side to clear in tbefore ratifying that deal in the time available left, too.
This is true, I don't really have a good grasp on the logistics of this thing - I guess everyone in the EU needs to pass something through all their various veto points, including to just extend the transition?
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
It is very hard seeing this resolved by the end of the transition period on December 31st.
This is a very perceptive summing-up of what happened this time last year , but surely there are some different circumstances this year as well. We're at the very end of the time left to secure a deal, and there seem to be many more institutional hurdles for the EU side to clear in tbefore ratifying that deal in the time available left, too. Another issue is that the government's most recent actions may be having unpredictable long-term consequences with trade partners like the U.S. too, outside the E.U's orbit but potentially impacting Britain's overall post-Brexit prospects and status, too.
Like most people, I have absolutely no idea what's going to happen.
It is very hard seeing this resolved by the end of the transition period on December 31st.
Is it? Isn't the path of least resistance to sign a deal with the EU that makes this moot?
Think about what Boris did last time: A whole series of things like proroguing parliament that enraged the pro-EU side and convinced the skeptics that he was one of them, get the anti-EU people committed to the idea that Boris is involved in a masterstroke of strong patriotic negotiation and the pro-EU people committed to the idea that a deal is impossible and it's all going to end in tears, then once one side is completely invested in cheering and the other completely invested in booing... accept the EU's terms.
When that happens the anti-EU people have a really hard time reversing course and taking up the position that Boris in fact a pathetic charlatan and the a deal is impossible like the anti-EU people said. So they say it's a great deal, parliament passes it, the Tory Party continues to support Boris and life goes on.
It is very hard seeing this resolved by the end of the transition period on December 31st.
>>
This is a very perceptive summing-up of what happened this time last year , but surely there are some different circumstances this year as well. We're at the very end of the time left to secure a deal, and there seem to be many more institutional hurdles for the EU side to clear in tbefore ratifying that deal in the time available left, too. Another issue is that the government's most recent actions may be having unpredictable long-term consequences with trade partners like the U.S. too, outside the E.U's orbit but potentially impacting Britain's overall post-Brexit prospects and status, too.
Like most people, I have absolutely no idea what's going to happen.
You mean, there is somebody who knows?
I was thinking possibly of Dominic, and a few people around him;.)
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Worth noting though how ineffective current measures are, with cases doubling in Oldham despite the new rules.
Leicester rules have never been fully relaxed, yet are on the uptick. Rumours that the Oadby and Wigston outbreak relates to a wedding with excessive numbers of guests.
We have been told to clear our backlog of waiting list by January. Delusional doesn’t come into it.
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Worth noting though how ineffective current measures are, with cases doubling in Oldham despite the new rules.
Leicester rules have never been fully relaxed, yet are on the uptick. Rumours that the Oadby and Wigston outbreak relates to a wedding with excessive numbers of guests.
We have been told to clear our backlog of waiting list by January. Delusional doesn’t come into it.
Those figures from Spain really concern me, because I seem to remember them as the last indicator about two weeks before the major wave last here, too ; maybe that's the government's thinking on a national lockdown in about two weeks if current cases continue in the same pattern here, too.
However, except for what look like localised increases in France too, the overall picture from around Europe still seems quite different from last time so far, with both less hospitalisations so far , and more of an overall patchwork than last time.
The overall situation still seems a bit unclear, although I seem to understand the government's thinking, too.
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
If and when a second lockdown is announced, assuming by Johnson, he will announce it with apology, inadvertent caveats, and to soften the blow a positive grand scheme at the end of the rainbow.
Johnson will not present a second lockdown as being either his wish or as a life or death imperative, just a tiresome task that has been forced on him. We need serious, angry face, instead we will as usual get the chipper clown.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
If and when a second lockdown is announced, assuming by Johnson, he will announce it with apology, inadvertent caveats, and to soften the blow a positive grand scheme at the end of the rainbow.
Johnson will not present a second lockdown as being either his wish or as a life or death imperative, just a tiresome task that has been forced on him. We need serious, angry face, instead we will as usual get the chipper clown.
For us in the NE it starts tomorrow and there’s been no real leadership, explanation, or communication as of yet. Just vastly shared Facebook posts from the local media.
I’m driving south this evening to stay at my Dad’s in Coventry. I assume this is allowed, well it is at the time of writing anyway.
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Why is it obvious
From the thousands of comments on Facebook discussing the new NE lockdown, it’s obvious people have had enough. Even from those who were previously very supportive.
Hello, I am here to bring you the good news about the state of Georgia. It shows we do not have to worry about rising case numbers without an immediate rise in hospital numbers.
On the 1st of June the 7-day moving average of new cases was 801 cases On the 30th of June it was 3190 (and the actual day value was 4100, the rise in cases was so rapid the 7day value started to lag badly)
The 7-day average for deaths went from 24 down to 22 in that time period. See nothing to worry about, things even got better.
In hospitals the overall ICU occupancy went from approx 2100 to approx 2200 ( well within daily fluctuations)
See nothing to worry about. As we can see, no deadly 2nd wave resurgence there.
Oh, wait. What I meant was the rising case number was an early indicator that demonstrated there was going to be a big old rise in deaths coming later down the line but the Georgia government did not react to the early warning signs.
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Why is it obvious
Because people have much less faith that the government knows what it is doing, and the government is unable to maintain a consistent line on anything for more than a few days at a time.
Boris is one of those kids who goes wrong after falling in with a bad crowd. You get the impression that he would be far happier if he ditched Cummings, Gove and the ideological ultras and started to govern like a Conservative. He made a Faustian pact that got him number 10 and he’s trapped in their cage evermore. A tragic figure.
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
If and when a second lockdown is announced, assuming by Johnson, he will announce it with apology, inadvertent caveats, and to soften the blow a positive grand scheme at the end of the rainbow.
Johnson will not present a second lockdown as being either his wish or as a life or death imperative, just a tiresome task that has been forced on him. We need serious, angry face, instead we will as usual get the chipper clown.
For us in the NE it starts tomorrow and there’s been no real leadership, explanation, or communication as of yet. Just vastly shared Facebook posts from the local media.
I’m driving south this evening to stay at my Dad’s in Coventry. I assume this is allowed, well it is at the time of writing anyway.
Just say you’re testing your eyes, if anyone asks.
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Why is it obvious
It may not be obvious but is likely to be true. During the first lockdown we have seen some of those in power ignoring it, Jenrick and Cummings spring to mind. Cummings actually justifying his decision - well we all have good reasons not to obey tiresome rules. Now we have the government being prepared to break international law, what a great example to the rest of us!
So Boris has said he will do everything to avoid a second lockdown.
So that’s a second lockdown nailed on then.
He seems to live in a fantasy world where saying is enough and doing entirely superfluous.
I am still reeling from Johnson's dialogue with Benn yesterday. Johnson asserting Europe were negotiating in 'bad faith' only to be challenged by Benn. Johnson (I guess to his credit) immediately held his hands up, confirming he had just lied, retorting 'I may of course be mistaken' or words to that effect.
No one has really made much of it, but essentially he has 'lied' to a Parliamentary Committee and owned up to it in the next breath.
Politicians lie, they always have and they always will. However, I can't recall seeing or hearing, from a Parish Councillor to a Prime Minister, falsehoods so brazenly tripping off the tongue, as they do when Johnson opens his mouth. His default appears to be bullshit, and only when he has thought about what he has just said does he row back on it.
Boris is one of those kids who goes wrong after falling in with a bad crowd. You get the impression that he would be far happier if he ditched Cummings, Gove and the ideological ultras and started to govern like a Conservative. He made a Faustian pact that got him number 10 and he’s trapped in their cage evermore. A tragic figure.
Amusing, but he was a pretty poor mayor in London when none of those applied. The only reason he didn’t leave a more disastrous wake behind him was that most of his ideas were completely impractical and never got started. And he was lucky in having some decent people working for him who both kept the plates spinning and humoured his fantastic schemes to his face and/or steered him away from cocking anything up. As long as they supplied him with a stream of things to announce or open, they kept him happy.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
Interesting. My partner is a teacher in Berlin. She has not been tested nor been offered a test, but she would have no problems getting tetsted if there was a good reason to.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Why is it obvious
Because people have much less faith that the government knows what it is doing, and the government is unable to maintain a consistent line on anything for more than a few days at a time.
A few days? Seconds more like! I have referred to Johnson's exchange with Benn yesterday, in a post a few moments ago which proves my point.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
May would have done better. Cameron would have done better. Brown would have done better. Blair would have done better. Major would have done better. Thatcher would have done better. Callaghan would have done better Wilson would have done better. Heath would have done better.
The Friends of Ireland congressional group is strong - maybe not as strong as the Israel lobby, but probably stronger than any other except possibly Taiwan. And while there may be more Democrats than Republicans in there, it is also pretty bipartisan. If the Friends of Ireland make a good case for opposing a trade deal, the irrespective of who's in the White House, I don't think it happens.
That being said, agriculture remains an almost insurmountable issue to any UK-US FTA.
(I would also point out that many of the things that we hate about the proposed EU deal will be required for a deal with the US - such as dynamic alignment, in their case around IP law - and a dispute resolution mechanism tilted towads the larger partner.)
The vast majority of Friends of Ireland are now Democrats reflecting their dominance of Irish American heavy New York, Illinois and Massachussetts
Sure, but it would only take a couple of Republican Friends of Ireland to scupper a trade deal, even if the Republicans won the House back and the Presidency.
There's no way the GOP will win the House back
If Trump is re elected there is a chance the GOP will retake the House as every seat is up, however the Democrats could also retake the Senate as the seats up there were last up in 2014, a bad Democratic year
It's vanishingly unlikely the GOP will regain the house. Most of the Dem gains in 2018 were in California which is not going to switch back to Trump, even if he wins the presidency.
2018 gains were on the back on MASSIVE swings. There are many plausible targets for the GOP even if Trump loses.
On R4 this morning, prof Tim Spector who devised the "Covid symptom tracker app" which 1.5m people have downloaded. He was one who picked up the loss of taste and smell as Covid symptoms early in the pandemic. He now reports that before the standard symptoms appear infected people typically report severe headaches and tiredness/fatigue; further, he says that without these early symptoms people are unlikely to have Covid. At the moment ~98% of tests are negative. Spector says that if you have a runny nose or congestion or sneezing you almost surely do not have Covid.
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Why is it obvious
From the thousands of comments on Facebook discussing the new NE lockdown, it’s obvious people have had enough. Even from those who were previously very supportive.
It is fair to say most everyone has more than enough but that does not excuse behaviour that continues and depends this crisis
I was born during the war and that went on for 5 years and most everyone had had enough after day one of being bombed
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Why is it obvious
Experience of the last month or two, fatigue and the forthcoming wildly mixed message from Johnson. If you don't believe my last point, can I refer you back to last week's 'moonshot speech' from Johnson.
On R4 this morning, prof Tim Spector who devised the "Covid symptom tracker app" which 1.5m people have downloaded. He was one who picked up the loss of taste and smell as Covid symptoms early in the pandemic. He now reports that before the standard symptoms appear infected people typically report severe headaches and tiredness/fatigue; further, he says that without these early symptoms people are unlikely to have Covid. At the moment ~98% of tests are negative. Spector says that if you have a runny nose or congestion or sneezing you almost surely do not have Covid.
Get pissed stay up all night, next day Covid symptoms.
Oh, wait. What I meant was the rising case number was an early indicator that demonstrated there was going to be a big old rise in deaths coming later down the line but the Georgia government did not react to the early warning signs.
And just incase anyone think I'm gaming these numbes and the Jun to Jul rise in cases was caused by extra testing here is the percent postive graph. It rocketed too
Boris is one of those kids who goes wrong after falling in with a bad crowd. You get the impression that he would be far happier if he ditched Cummings, Gove and the ideological ultras and started to govern like a Conservative. He made a Faustian pact that got him number 10 and he’s trapped in their cage evermore. A tragic figure.
Amusing, but he was a pretty poor mayor in London when none of those applied. The only reason he didn’t leave a more disastrous wake behind him was that most of his ideas were completely impractical and never got started. And he was lucky in having some decent people working for him who both kept the plates spinning and humoured his fantastic schemes to his face and/or steered him away from cocking things up.
He does seem to have two defaults - the mediocre but amusing patrician buffer in London, like a wannabe Macmillan rather than Churchill, and the power-obsessed Churchill delusionist that seems to occupy no.10 these days. Maybe his Churchill obsession, and how it intersects with his 'world king' fantasies from very small, is what has driven him from relatively harmless patrician showmanship and mediocrity to potentially inflicting both national and international damage.
Thought of a new name for the Johnson-Cummings party: Extinction Rebellion. It is a rebellion and we are heading towards extinction.
Extinction of:
Credibility
Competence
Trust
Allies
Trade
Businesses
Jobs
People's lives
the Law
United KIngdom
I can’t see him becoming one of those PMs whom history comes to see more kindly, for sure. Probably the reverse, and history students will one day be writing essays about how people came so to be taken in by it all.
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Why is it obvious
Because people have much less faith that the government knows what it is doing, and the government is unable to maintain a consistent line on anything for more than a few days at a time.
Covid is not consistent and is stretching governments across the globe
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
If and when a second lockdown is announced, assuming by Johnson, he will announce it with apology, inadvertent caveats, and to soften the blow a positive grand scheme at the end of the rainbow.
Johnson will not present a second lockdown as being either his wish or as a life or death imperative, just a tiresome task that has been forced on him. We need serious, angry face, instead we will as usual get the chipper clown.
For us in the NE it starts tomorrow and there’s been no real leadership, explanation, or communication as of yet. Just vastly shared Facebook posts from the local media.
I’m driving south this evening to stay at my Dad’s in Coventry. I assume this is allowed, well it is at the time of writing anyway.
If the old bill stop you, you could say you have booked a Covid test and Coventry is the most local testing centre to NE England at present. Plod will let you on your way in no time!
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Why is it obvious
From the thousands of comments on Facebook discussing the new NE lockdown, it’s obvious people have had enough. Even from those who were previously very supportive.
It is fair to say most everyone has more than enough but that does not excuse behaviour that continues and depends this crisis
I was born during the war and that went on for 5 years and most everyone had had enough after day one of being bombed
Some of the lockdown restrictions are more severe than in ww2. All the pubs, schools and entertainment didn’t close as far as I know. You could still go to work.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
May would have done better. Cameron would have done better. Brown would have done better. Blair would have done better. Major would have done better. Thatcher would have done better. Callaghan would have done better Wilson would have done better. Heath would have done better.
So Boris has said he will do everything to avoid a second lockdown.
So that’s a second lockdown nailed on then.
He seems to live in a fantasy world where saying is enough and doing entirely superfluous.
I am still reeling from Johnson's dialogue with Benn yesterday. Johnson asserting Europe were negotiating in 'bad faith' only to be challenged by Benn. Johnson (I guess to his credit) immediately held his hands up, confirming he had just lied, retorting 'I may of course be mistaken' or words to that effect.
No one has really made much of it, but essentially he has 'lied' to a Parliamentary Committee and owned up to it in the next breath.
Politicians lie, they always have and they always will. However, I can't recall seeing or hearing, from a Parish Councillor to a Prime Minister, falsehoods so brazenly tripping off the tongue, as they do when Johnson opens his mouth. His default appears to be bullshit, and only when he has thought about what he has just said does he row back on it.
Only when forced to think about what he’s just said.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
May would have done better. Cameron would have done better. Brown would have done better. Blair would have done better. Major would have done better. Thatcher would have done better. Callaghan would have done better Wilson would have done better. Heath would have done better.
That is just your political bias
Nope. That old lefty Thatcher would have done better than Boris. A scientist in no10 would have been a big win.
On R4 this morning, prof Tim Spector who devised the "Covid symptom tracker app" which 1.5m people have downloaded. He was one who picked up the loss of taste and smell as Covid symptoms early in the pandemic. He now reports that before the standard symptoms appear infected people typically report severe headaches and tiredness/fatigue; further, he says that without these early symptoms people are unlikely to have Covid. At the moment ~98% of tests are negative. Spector says that if you have a runny nose or congestion or sneezing you almost surely do not have Covid.
And that is the problem.
Two of my grandchildren have had colds, one had a negative test and the other stayed at home for a few days and was fine
On R4 this morning, prof Tim Spector who devised the "Covid symptom tracker app" which 1.5m people have downloaded. He was one who picked up the loss of taste and smell as Covid symptoms early in the pandemic. He now reports that before the standard symptoms appear infected people typically report severe headaches and tiredness/fatigue; further, he says that without these early symptoms people are unlikely to have Covid. At the moment ~98% of tests are negative. Spector says that if you have a runny nose or congestion or sneezing you almost surely do not have Covid.
Get pissed stay up all night, next day Covid symptoms.
Yup, hangover symptoms are more likely confused with Covid than the sniffles. But you probably know that you were on a bender last night so your prior likelihood of misery due to Covid should be very low.
Comments
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
My point is unlike March where we were talking about a very small and self selected number of tests, now they do enough to be able to start to get a much better estimate on true number of cases.
My son is sensible too, but it won't be much fun locked away in halls for weeks on end. He is quite resiliant in that respect, but others may be less so.
On the other hand, CP says nationwide there are currently 16 toss-up US House districts now held by Democrats versus just 12 now held by Republicans,.
Dem toss-ups" include 3 in Iowa, 2 in both New York & Virginia, 1 each in CA, FL, ME, MN, NJ, NM, OK, SC, UT
Rep toss=ups include 3 in Texas, 1 each CA, IN, MO, NE, NJ, NY, OH, PA
Note - do NOT judge likely outcome in these districts simply by what state they are in, because toss-ups tend to be races with special demographics and circumstances, including but not limited to vagaries of redistricting.
We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests.
Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms?
And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases?
Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted.
Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
Methinks he got an earful in DC, and NOT just from Joe & Nancy, or professional Irishmen.
I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating.
We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily.
Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
IF yours truly ruled the world, would put a sizeable chunk of stimulus spending into youth universal service programs that would harness the tremendous energy & potential of young people via education (from remedial to doctoral), discipline (esp. COVID-prevention), and community service (including military, police, fire, etc for those inclined who make the grade). What a wonderful investment for the present AND for the future.
For example, just imagine how much testing a corps of young adults could do, and how quickly they could do it, from Lands End to John o'Groats.
Just like the CCC during the Great Depression here in the USA. Where most of their good works still endure in parks and other infrastructure from sea to shining sea. Only bigger and better.
My guess is that you could have a lot of "bubbles" where appropriate & feasible (say maintaining walking trails in national parks) and (somewhat) strict COVID protocals where not (such as coaching young kids or helping geezers fetch groceries). In theory anyway.
If there was a similar result in November there would be a lot more than just tossups going GOP and the GOP could certainly retake the House
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections
Why? Because for starters, there are many millions of Americans all across the country who are aware they have some Irish heritage. Most of these are descendants of Scots Irish, but relatively few of these folks identify with Irish Protestants, who from our perspective often seem to reject their Irishness. Instead, we're far more likely to gravitate to Celtic Ireland, because THAT is what we want AND expect from the Irish - song, wit, sentiment, booze & blarney.
What most Americans - including most Irish Americans - actually know about Ireland can be stored in a thimble. We know that the Brits beat up on the Irish, and that the Irish fought back. We know the Catholics don't get along with the Protestants, and visa versa, though it mystifies us why that is. And that's about it.
Nevertheless, St Patrick's Day ranks with Valentine's Day as our most popular non-paid holiday, enjoyed or at least recognized in some fashion by about 95% of the population, ranging from barrooms overflowing with green beer, to school kids pinching each other (esp cute girls you'd like to know better) for NOT wearing green.
Another factor is the wide popularity of Celtic music, including Irish and also Scots (but little Welsh) contemporary music. In general, instrumentals, traditionals & non-politicals are favored. Though "Kevin Barry" and "The Foggy Dew" will be appreciated - certainly far more than "Croppies Lie Down" or anything else stronger than "The Old Orange Flute" to which even a Cardinal couldn't take (reasonable) exception.
Also think America's Irish affinity is an echo of our late 18th, 19th and early 20th century Anglophobia. A time when even Know Nothings and other nativists who feared and disdained Irish immigrants were rarely pro-British. For many - and many more who were NOT nativistic, or leastways not much - blamed the British for driving the Irish to these shores with oppression and starvation. Note that we've NEVER had a beef with the Scots or Welsh, or even the Manx or Cornish - it's the ENGLISH who were the problem.
Took World Wars One & Two & esp. Winston Churchill to reduce US anti-British orientation, along with the fall of the Empire (bad mostly) and the rise of the Commonwealth (good, or at least much better). Beatles and the British Invasion that being British really became a plus for us. In the depths of our national DNA, in the backs of our collective mind, we will ALWAYS be more than a wee bit wary of our British - read that English - cousins.
The upshot is that the Special Relationship will always be more special for UK than for US.
Make Essex Great Again
Think about what Boris did last time: A whole series of things like proroguing parliament that enraged the pro-EU side and convinced the skeptics that he was one of them, get the anti-EU people committed to the idea that Boris is involved in a masterstroke of strong patriotic negotiation and the pro-EU people committed to the idea that a deal is impossible and it's all going to end in tears, then once one side is completely invested in cheering and the other completely invested in booing... accept the EU's terms.
When that happens the anti-EU people have a really hard time reversing course and taking up the position that Boris in fact a pathetic charlatan and the a deal is impossible like the anti-EU people said. So they say it's a great deal, parliament passes it, the Tory Party continues to support Boris and life goes on.
Think about what Boris did last time: A whole series of things like proroguing parliament that enraged the pro-EU side and convinced the skeptics that he was one of them, get the anti-EU people committed to the idea that Boris is involved in a masterstroke of strong patriotic negotiation and the pro-EU people committed to the idea that a deal is impossible and it's all going to end in tears, then once one side is completely invested in cheering and the other completely invested in booing... accept the EU's terms.
When that happens the anti-EU people have a really hard time reversing course and taking up the position that Boris in fact a pathetic charlatan and the a deal is impossible like the anti-EU people said. So they say it's a great deal, parliament passes it, the Tory Party continues to support Boris and life goes on.
I hope you're right
Sporting
Biden ..... 284-290
Trump ... 248-254
Spreadex
Biden ..... 285-293
Trump ... 245-253
Is the world supposed to dance to our tune and do what we want? How naive are some of you?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
There is also the issue that the very act of “lockdown” (depending what that actually means ) could actually drive an acceleration of cases (or even worse serious high viral load cases) in the short term as infected people increase their close and prolonged contact to others in their household.
However, I looked at OGH's into to this and wonder about something in it, about meeting' the apparently irreconcilable demands of the UK wanting the province to remain while apparently meeting the contradictory objectives of Dublin.'
I don't think the UK is really bothered about N. Ireland. The Conservatives genuflect in favour of retention, largely for historic reasons. Labour isn't particularly worried either way. As far as I can see much of both main parties will be delighted when it appears there could well be a 51% pro-reunion vote in a referendum and the whole business can be done and dusted.
And also the distinction (from a health perspective) between widespread “low dose” transmission and lower spread high/repeated dose transmission.
Think about what Boris did last time: A whole series of things like proroguing parliament that enraged the pro-EU side and convinced the skeptics that he was one of them, get the anti-EU people committed to the idea that Boris is involved in a masterstroke of strong patriotic negotiation and the pro-EU people committed to the idea that a deal is impossible and it's all going to end in tears, then once one side is completely invested in cheering and the other completely invested in booing... accept the EU's terms.
When that happens the anti-EU people have a really hard time reversing course and taking up the position that Boris in fact a pathetic charlatan and the a deal is impossible like the anti-EU people said. So they say it's a great deal, parliament passes it, the Tory Party continues to support Boris and life goes on. >>
This is a very perceptive summing-up of what happened this time last year , but surely there are some different circumstances this year as well. We're at the very end of the time left to secure a deal, and there seem to be many more institutional hurdles for the EU side to clear in tbefore ratifying that deal in the time available left, too. Another issue is that the government's most recent actions may be having unpredictable long-term consequences with trade partners like the U.S. too, outside the E.U's orbit but potentially impacting Britain's overall post-Brexit prospects and status, too.
Like most people, I have absolutely no idea what's going to happen.
The guidance is crystal clear for anyone who even thinks they have the pox - isolate. The problem is that so many people have it, spread it yet are asymptomatic. A lockdown is inevitable, we may as well get on with it and try to squaah it early. Last time Shagger dithered an extra 20,000 people died...
£450 for the PS5 is about what I expected. Just hope it's quieter than it's predecessor. Also wondering about Avowed, by Obsidian (first person RPG set in the Pillars of Eternity world). Sadly Xbox exclusive, but looks intriguing.
https://twitter.com/omarabudayyeh/status/1306399396464963584
It’s like Johnson’s attempt to frame EU “bad faith” as being proven by any outcome that does not conclude in a deal (as in “we will only seek to break the terms of the NI protocol to the Withdrawal Agreement in the event that there is no deal outcome” - despite said protocol being specifically negotiated for the purposes of such an outcome occurring).
I’m still not entirely sure how he’s going to square “no deal will be a very good outcome for the U.K.”, with the need to apportion blame on others for no deal being disastrous, but no doubt he’ll find a way to move seamlessly from one to another.
“If the EU negotiates in good faith I expect a deal but if they don’t we will go to no deal which will be fine/a good outcome”
“No deal has turned out badly because the EU have chosen to act in bad faith and make things difficult for us - like asking us to fill in some forms as a third country”.
Not an awful lot of room for a “good” no deal between those statements...
Of course, as WFH is now the norm, the effects could be a lot less pronounced than when we went into the first lockdown.
But whatever the situation it’s not likely to resolve itself in two weeks.
Not everything is back to normal though. Universities are soon to start their second online semester.
Edit/ France was the interesting one. The town centre has been declared mask compulsory (almost universally observed), with marshalls manning checkpoints and dispensing sanitiser. If you only visited the town square you’d be really impressed with their effort and discipline. Walk off down the back streets, however, and places were packed with barely a mask to be seen.
One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Think about what Boris did last time: A whole series of things like proroguing parliament that enraged the pro-EU side and convinced the skeptics that he was one of them, get the anti-EU people committed to the idea that Boris is involved in a masterstroke of strong patriotic negotiation and the pro-EU people committed to the idea that a deal is impossible and it's all going to end in tears, then once one side is completely invested in cheering and the other completely invested in booing... accept the EU's terms.
When that happens the anti-EU people have a really hard time reversing course and taking up the position that Boris in fact a pathetic charlatan and the a deal is impossible like the anti-EU people said. So they say it's a great deal, parliament passes it, the Tory Party continues to support Boris and life goes on. >>
This is a very perceptive summing-up of what happened this time last year , but surely there are some different circumstances this year as well. We're at the very end of the time left to secure a deal, and there seem to be many more institutional hurdles for the EU side to clear in tbefore ratifying that deal in the time available left, too. Another issue is that the government's most recent actions may be having unpredictable long-term consequences with trade partners like the U.S. too, outside the E.U's orbit but potentially impacting Britain's overall post-Brexit prospects and status, too.
Like most people, I have absolutely no idea what's going to happen.
You mean, there is somebody who knows?
I was thinking possibly of Dominic, and a few people around him;.)
Leicester rules have never been fully relaxed, yet are on the uptick. Rumours that the Oadby and Wigston outbreak relates to a wedding with excessive numbers of guests.
We have been told to clear our backlog of waiting list by January. Delusional doesn’t come into it.
So that’s a second lockdown nailed on then.
However, except for what look like localised increases in France too, the overall picture from around Europe still seems quite different from last time so far, with both less hospitalisations so far , and more of an overall patchwork than last time.
The overall situation still seems a bit unclear, although I seem to understand the government's thinking, too.
Johnson will not present a second lockdown as being either his wish or as a life or death imperative, just a tiresome task that has been forced on him. We need serious, angry face, instead we will as usual get the chipper clown.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
I’m driving south this evening to stay at my Dad’s in Coventry. I assume this is allowed, well it is at the time of writing anyway.
Extinction of:
On the 1st of June the 7-day moving average of new cases was 801 cases
On the 30th of June it was 3190 (and the actual day value was 4100, the rise in cases was so rapid the 7day value started to lag badly)
The 7-day average for deaths went from 24 down to 22 in that time period. See nothing to worry about, things even got better.
In hospitals the overall ICU occupancy went from approx 2100 to approx 2200 ( well within daily fluctuations)
See nothing to worry about. As we can see, no deadly 2nd wave resurgence there.
Oh, wait. What I meant was the rising case number was an early indicator that demonstrated there was going to be a big old rise in deaths coming later down the line but the Georgia government did not react to the early warning signs.
During the first lockdown we have seen some of those in power ignoring it, Jenrick and Cummings spring to mind. Cummings actually justifying his decision - well we all have good reasons not to obey tiresome rules.
Now we have the government being prepared to break international law, what a great example to the rest of us!
No one has really made much of it, but essentially he has 'lied' to a Parliamentary Committee and owned up to it in the next breath.
Politicians lie, they always have and they always will. However, I can't recall seeing or hearing, from a Parish Councillor to a Prime Minister, falsehoods so brazenly tripping off the tongue, as they do when Johnson opens his mouth. His default appears to be bullshit, and only when he has thought about what he has just said does he row back on it.
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
Cameron would have done better.
Brown would have done better.
Blair would have done better.
Major would have done better.
Thatcher would have done better.
Callaghan would have done better
Wilson would have done better.
Heath would have done better.
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1306265738550837248
I was born during the war and that went on for 5 years and most everyone had had enough after day one of being bombed
https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1306489507487920128
Two of my grandchildren have had colds, one had a negative test and the other stayed at home for a few days and was fine
In truth the test was pointless